Mackay Group
Mackay Group
HOW I SEE IT – by Bruce dynamics has not issued recession signal. Jobless claims
Earnings season+/ Revival of confidence/ Liquidity driven argue US labor market isn’t in too much trouble. Economic
Strong week for equities - many companies and indices are surprises have been improving.
hitting all-time highs. It’s US earning seasons - 25+/of S&P Jim Paulsen - “Why no post pandemic confidence recovery?
500 report - 72% beat-with upward guidance & confidence. The Fed is finally cutting interest rates. Could it bring a long
Will markets hold in the scary month . Will this 2-year bull overdue revival of main street confidence, stoke animal
market continue? spirits and give investors one last animal fueled bull market
Positives: AAII Investment Sentiment Survey - 45.5% bullish/ leg higher. A recent survey suggests that one half of
29.2% neutral/ 25.4% bearish - readings are steady for the American still believe the economy remains in a recession.
last four weeks- not to hot- not to cold -just right. In the last couple years, solid economic growth has been
RBC WM- Global Insight – “Recession Scorecard update- unable to renew optimism. The good news is the Fed is
Stop and Start- there have been no recent scorecard rating finally adopted and accommodative interest rate policy. This
changes- however 2 of the 7 indicators have failed to move may do more than just save off a recession. Could bring
in the anticipated direction over the past month. along overdue revival of Main Street, confidence stoke
Nonfinancial corporate cash flows are expansionary. animal spirits, and give investors one last animal fuel full
Unemployment claims and ISM New Orders minus market leg higher.
inventories are neutral, however yield curve, unemployment Dr. Ed Yardeni – “The S&P 500 could hit 8000 by the end of
rate, conference board leading economic index, and Fed the decade. The US economy is doing well. Our no hard
funds rate versus nominal GDP growth are recessionary (is landing scenario for the economy for the past couple of
that why rates are dropping, and these recession signals will years on our observation that recessions tend to be caused
change - and why stocks are up). Charts -Bull markets like to by tighter monetary policy, causing a financial crisis which
run - going back 50 years if a bull market makes it past its turns into a credit crunch and a recession. We don’t see that
second birthday like this one that is a great sign many more scenario playing out anytime soon.”
years could be left in the tank -5 markets made it this far and Tom Lee – “3Q24 EPS season- inflation falls by half yet real
the shortest was at least five years old when it ended. Credit revenue growth accelerates. 3Q earning season is delivering
markets have rarely been this optimistic- tightest in 20 years- better quality results than many realized because revenue
this means investor optimism about the condition of the US growth is accelerating. Core inflation did not reflect true
economy has skyrocketed. UK inflation drops. Canada inflation in the economy. S&P 500 revenue growth not
inflation drops- upping bets of more rate cuts. China’s correlated to inflation. S&P 500 companies are
stimulus measures. US election - almost there & done. US outperforming inflation. Bottom line we are still in the tricky
consumers still spending and continue to borrow on credit period but in the context of a very strong market dip buyers
cards- helps resilient job market and wage growth. The AI to emerge if we get any pullback. Liquidity driven market
boom could bring significant changes to the way we live with so much cash on sidelines. Fed Dovish.”
work and interact with one another. Inflation has been Negatives: Canadian economic growth has stabilized, but at
normalizing. Holding cash underperforms overtime. a modest growth rate still shrinking substantially on a per
RBC WM Positive themes: First Fed rate cut. Soft landing capita basis. Big city multiunit housing markets are
odds rising. Decent US economic data recently. Economic particularly weak. Canada‘s productivity lagging ever further
surprises start to stabilize. Inflation pressures continue to behind the US. High valuations and mega technology stocks
ease. Shipping cost falling again- low prices like a tax cut. and could limit return potential.
Alternative Sahm Rule- those better captures hiring
Page 1 10/18/2024
RBC WM Negative themes- High rates still painful. US labor
market soft. Yield curve remains concerning. Canadian
economic challenges. China economic concerns. Geopolitical
risks elevate further.
Fundstrat technical – “Possible peak and a 5- 7% pullback
might be possible into mid-November. Elliott Way pattern
looks near completion. Lack of bears. Cycle show peak in mid
to late October. Seasonality. Short term breadth erosion.
Demark exhaustion.”
Berkshire – why are the raising cash?
Investment strategy: “Investment success does not require
glamour stocks or bull markets.” John Neff.
1b 10/18/2024
THIS WEEK’S NOTES & QUOTES - News and Opinions Worth Repeating – By Christopher
FAA Starts New Boeing Review After Watchdog Seeks More Action
The US Federal Aviation Administration announced a new review into Boeing Co.’s safety processes, a week
after a government watchdog said the agency needed to be more proactive in its oversight of the planemaker.
“This review is part of our aggressive oversight to ensure Boeing has the right tools to sustain lasting changes to
its safety culture,” the agency said in a statement on Friday. The audit, which is expected to take three months,
will focus on the company’s response time, the quality of its risk assessment, how it allocates resources and
adherence to FAA rules.
A spokesperson for the FAA said it will be conducting such reviews periodically to ensure the agency is getting
timely data from the company.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/18/faa-starts-new-boeing-review-after-watchdog-seeks-more-action/
Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the
primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower
prices and lower volumes.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2024/10/16/statistics-canada-says-manufacturing-sales-fell-
13-to-694b-in-august/
US housing starts eased in September as a drop in multifamily projects outweighed a pickup in construction of
single-family dwellings.
Housing starts decreased 0.5% last month to a 1.35 million annualized rate, according to government data
released Friday, after a big rebound in August. The September figure was in line with the median projection in a
Bloomberg survey of economists.
Starts of single-family homes climbed 2.7% to an annualized 1.03 million, the strongest in five months.
Construction of multifamily homes slumped 9.4% to a four-month low.
The number of overall building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell 2.9% to a 1.43 million annualized
rate. Permit applications for single-family home construction rose 0.3% to a 970,000 pace.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/10/18/us-housing-starts-ease-on-decline-in-multifamily-
construction/
Page 2 10/18/2024
Disney Introduces New US Park Perk: Skip the Long Lines for $400
Walt Disney Co. is introducing a new theme-park perk for rides such as Indiana Jones and Rise of the
Resistance, where the waits can be over an hour long. For $400 a person, guests can skip the lines at many
popular attractions.
Resorts in Southern California and Florida will begin testing the Lightning Lane Premier Pass starting Oct. 23
and Oct. 30, respectively, according to company websites. The pass allows a visitor to use the Lightning Lane
entrance once at numerous busy rides for a whole day.
Only “very limited quantities” of the Lightning Lane Premier Pass will be available, Disney said. The rollout of
the feature coincides with a slowdown in business at the company’s resorts.
The current prices will run through Dec. 31. After that, Disney expects the new pass to be priced at $300 to
$400 a day per guest, based on the date and demand.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/10/16/disney-introduces-new-us-park-perk-skip-the-long-lines-for-400/
As they stood in line outside the Grand Palais waiting for the doors to open for the first VIP day of Art Basel
Paris, a group of major international collectors uniformly dismissed the doom and gloom narratives that have
dominated the art market for over a year.
“Yes, if I find something I like,” said the philanthropist Frances Reynolds. “I don’t buy art because I think of it
as an investment, I buy art because I like it.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/10/16/at-art-basel-paris-a-sluggish-market-finally-springs-back-to-life/
Five Ski Destinations That Are Cheaper than Classics—and Just as Posh
Good news for skiers: La Niña is promising massive snowfall in the Americas and colder temperatures in
Europe this season, a relief after last year’s paltry powder. The downside? Resorts are expecting record crowds.
But you can get the best of all worlds—epic terrain, solid deals, private stashes of pow—by choosing these
alternatives hidden right around the corner from some of the world’s most famous destinations.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/10/16/five-ski-destinations-that-are-cheaper-than-classicsand-just-
as-posh/
Page 3 10/18/2024
CANADIAN MARKETS – By Andrew III. RBC DS Canadian Equity Focus List – Sept
2024
I. Canadian Fixed Income TD Bank, Royal Bank, Bank of Montreal, National
Benchmark Canada Government Bonds Bank of Canada, Brookfield Corporation, Brookfield
Asset Management, Intact Financial, Canadian
Imperial Bank, First Capital REIT, Element Fleet
Management, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners,
TELUS, Dollarama Inc., Alimentation Couche-Tard,
Loblaw, CP Rail, Toromont Industries, Waste
Connections, Thomson Reuters, WSP Global, GFL
Environmental, Bombardier, Constellation Software,
Shopify, Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor
Energy, Pembina Pipeline, TC Energy, CCL
Industries.
Page 4 10/18/2024
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS – By Andrew IV. RBC DS US Equity Focus List – August 2024:
I. US Fixed Income JP Morgan, Mastercard, S&P Global, NextEra
Benchmark Canada Government Bonds Energy, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Amazon, Home Depot,
McDonalds, Nike, Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic,
Thermo Fisher Scientific, United Health Group,
Crown Castle Inc, Constellation Brands, Costco
Wholesale, Estee Lauder, Honeywell International,
Union Pacific, Xylem, Adobe, Amphenol Class A,
Apple, Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, Service Now,
Chevron, Ecolab, Meta Platforms, RTX Corporation.
Page 5 10/18/2024
MUTUAL FUNDS Closed/Open– Top Holdings ETFS – Top Holdings
-By Christopher US ETF Fixed Income
US Bonds – XIG, TLT
I. CANADIAN US Preferred Shares - PFF
Canadian Fixed Income US ETF Equity – S&P 500, Dow Jones Index,
Canso Credit Income Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Dividend Index, iShares Dow
Dynamic Strategic Yield Jones Select Dividend Index, Vanguard Dividend
PH&N Total Return Bond Fund Appreciation Index, iShares High Dividend Equity
Fund, iShares Russell 2000 Index, S&P 500 Value
Canadian Equity Index, S&P 500 Growth Index, S&P Small Cap 600
Fidelity – Global Innovation/CDN Large Index
Cap/Growth /Special Opp
Mackenzie – Ivy CDN / Cundill US ETF Sectors – SPDR Financial Index, iShares
Middlefield – CDN Dividend Growers/REIT Plus Real Estate, iShares, SPDR Utilities Index, iShares
Franklin Templeton – Bissett CDN Div/CDN Equity Telecom Index, SPDR Consumer Discretion, iShares
RBC –CDN Div/CDN Equity/ O’Shaughnessy US Healthcare, IShares Nasdaq Biotech, iShares
Industrials Index, NASDAQ Index, Vanguard
Energy Index, DJ Basic Materials Index, iShares
ETFS – Top Holdings Homebuilders Index
Canada – Fixed Income
Bonds - XBB, XCB, XGB
Preferred Shares – CPD, PSF.UN, RPF III. GLOBAL
Canadian ETF’s Equity – iShares TSX Large Cap 60, GLOBAL Equity
iShares Canada Equity Income, iShares Canadian Fidelity – Global Div/Monthly Income
Dividend, iShares Canadian Select Dividend, GQG Partners Global Quality Equity Fund
iShares TSX Small Cap, iShares TSX Composite Middlefield - Health Care/Global Div Growers
Franklin Templeton - Growth / Intl
Canadian ETF Sectors – iShares TSX Financials, RBC – Global Fund / Int. Div G
iShares TSX REITs, BMO Equal Weight Utilities, Dynamic – Global Value
iShares TSX Info Tech, iShares TSX Energy, iShares
TSX Materials GLOBAL ETF Equity
China ETF, Europe ETF, Germany ETF, India ETF,
iShares Emerging Mkts, iShares International
II. US/INTERNATIONAL Dividend
Page 6 10/18/2024
By – Ned Davis S&P500 – Sector Road Map – Good Track Record – By Bruce
Page 7 10/18/2024
FAVOURITE CHARTS
Page 8 10/18/2024
Page 9 10/18/2024
Strong spending data shows economy can grow without rate cuts: Point72′s Dean Maki
(cnbc.com)
Strong spending data shows economy can grow without rate cuts: Point72's Dean Maki (cnbc.com)
a
AAII website is experiencing technical issues – chart above is 1 week old, and will be updated next week once data is available
b
c
d
Andex Chart
The Andex Chart tracks the performance of $100 invested over a 72-year period in different types of investments amid the context of
significant historical, political, economic and social developments. It helps you consider current events through a long-term lens and,
as a result, make informed investment decisions. Each coloured line in the Andex Chart represents the performance of a different
investment type or asset class. While each type of investment has charted an upward course over time, their movements differed under
the same economic circumstances, underscoring the importance of diversification.
e
MACKAY GROUP WEALTH MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
Introduction Serving over 300 families and friends Our team manages clients’ portfolios on an
since 1981. We provide the investment solutions you individual basis (AUM $1.81B). Portfolios are
need to achieve specific goals, whether investing for custom designed to meet your personal objectives.
yourself, family, your business or your organization. Investment disciplines used include asset allocation,
Our Team Helping to provide comprehensive geographic & sector diversification, and risk
wealth management is an extensive team of management to maximize your portfolio returns.
professionals, including Portfolio Managers, Programs include:
Financial Planners, Estate Planning Specialists, 1. MG Private Investment Management – PIM
Consultants, Tax Strategists and Research Analysts. (AUM $200M)-Discretionary portfolio management.
THE MG WEALTH MANAGEMENT APPROACH Highlights include: Freedom, custom portfolio,
1: Learning about each other segregated securities, IP statement, asset mix for life
2: Developing your personalized IP investment plan. stage, model portfolio tracking, growth and income
3: Putting your plan into action needs, risk tolerance, top & bottom up management.
4: Integrating complementary wealth services 2.Professional Discretionary Investment Portfolios.
5: Taking care of your lifelong needs RBC DS-A+ Investment Program: is our institutional
6: Monitoring and reporting results level platform with 40+ Investment Manager
Portfolio Management Highlights: choices. Global money managers including Beutel
1. Learning about each other. Questionnaire on Goodman, Franklin Bissett, Guardian, Jarislowsky
investment needs, objectives, and risk. Fraser, RBC GAM, Caldwell, Brandes, Templeton.
2. Investment Policy Statement. The IPS statement 3.MG Non-Discretionary Advisory Management
expresses your personal investment objectives in a (AUM $300M)- Non-discretionary investment
document to guide the content of your portfolio, portfolio management. Highlights include:
including making decisions, reporting on progress Discussion on each investment, custom portfolios,
and regularly reviewing your objectives. IP statement, asset mix, growth & income needs,
3. Action Plan. Detailed proposal to get us started. risk tolerance, top & down management.
4. Reviewing all our Wealth Management services Management fees are tax deductible for non-
including a financial plan and estate plan. registered accounts.
5. Taking care of lifelong needs, including creating 4.Traditional Transactional based accounts.
detailed income projections. Available for special situation accounts.
6. Monitoring and reporting results. Ongoing Advantages of Annual Management Fee Program.
portfolio analysis, reviews and prompt service. Premium money market and bond rates
Investment Policy Statement (IPS) mutual funds with lower management fees
Portfolio Valuation Report Hedging through use of option strategies
o Asset Allocation, Income Projection, Rate of Easier tax planning – tax loss switches
Return, Capital Gains/Loss Stop loss + Re-entry without extra fees
Tax reporting, T5 and T3 etc. (See kit) to average into and out of stock positions.
RBC CM Quarterly Strategy, MG Weekly No transaction commission places the focus
Newsletter, Focus List and Stock of the Day on merits of investing instead of its cost.
ACCOUNTS & SERVICES WE OFFER Fee % deceases as value increases
Investment Account, Options, Equity Credit Line, INVESTMENT VEHICLES WE USE:
Corporate, Holding Co., Charitable Foundation, Tax Allocation includes CDN, US, and International
Free Savings Account (TFSA), Registered Education Fixed Income Equity Income & Growth
Savings Plan (RESP), Registered Retirement Savings MM, GICs Small Cap.
Plan (RRSP), Registered Retirement Income Fund Bonds, Converts Medium Cap.
(RRIF), Individual Pension Plan (IPP), DS Family Preferreds Large Cap.
Trust Acct, Registered Charity Gift of Stock Acct, High Income Balanced
Annual Tax-Assisted Flow-Through Share Program ETFs & Mutual Funds (open and closed)
Page 10 10/18/2024
COMPREHENSIVE WEALTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES – By Kristi and Kyle
6. RBC Premier Banking and Private Banking- Niaz Dharas & Margaret Caponio
Premier Banker works as a single point of contact providing banking and credit solutions for select clients of
Wealth Management Canada and their families. Tailored banking & credit package to complement the best-in-
class investment management and wealth planning.
• Providing one of RBC’s most comprehensive banking packages – special rates, exclusive cross border
package, high daily access limits on cash withdrawals and direct payments, RBC Avion Visa Infinite
Privilege Card with a $120 rebate off the annual fee and more.
Page 11 10/18/2024
THE MACKAY GROUP TEAM COMMENTS Wealth Management
Kristi – Associate Wealth Advisor
Our Mission Over 100 of our clients and their families have found
“To provide our clients superior investment advice, tremendous value in having a Financial Plan, Will &
products and service at MacKay Group Wealth Estate Consultation and Insurance review.
Management RBC Dominion Securities since 1981.”
Estate + Financial Planning Advisors
Portfolio Management Ted Chan, Financial Planner
Bruce–Senior Portfolio Manager/Investment Advisor Available to create a comprehensive financial plan.
Portfolio Management & Team Management
Ariel-Charles Guigui, Will and Estate Consultant
We'll review your investment portfolios, offer second
opinions and proposals. Introduce you to our expanded Available for information on structuring your estate.
team of Wealth Management professionals and the full Prashant Patel, Tax Consultant
range of services we offer. Solutions that can simplify your tax planning.
Andrew Sipes, Estate Planning Specialist
Andrew – Associate Portfolio Manager & Wealth To review your estate and insurance plans.
Advisor
Karen Snowdon-Steacy, Senior Trust Advisor
Portfolio Management & Research
Provide with valuable estate and Royal Trust services.
Proper portfolio construction is the key to meeting your
financial goals. The variety of investment choices can be
daunting. Let our team help simplify the approach, RBC Banking
narrow your focus, mitigate tax, and plan for financial Kyle – Associate Advisor
success throughout retirement. Having worked in RBC Private banking, I am able to help
clients with their banking needs as well as our many
Christopher – Associate Advisor investment wealth products and services.
Portfolio Management & Research Melissa R Rodrigues, Insurance Specialist
I will work with you and our team to manage your accounts, Conducts Personal Risk Assessment to provide holistic
provide recommendations, identify opportunities and assist personal advice.
with client service to ensure all your needs are met. Niaz Dharass, Premier Banking
Provide banking and credit solutions for our clients.
Administration
MG and RBC Foundation Charitable Gifts
Shannon – Senior Associate
Please let us know if you have a charity you would
Portfolio Administration
like us to support.
Is your account information up to date - including
Charities we support in 2024 - Trillium Health
investment objectives & risk parameters, beneficiary
Partners, Canadian Wildlife Federation, Toronto
information, dividend reinvestment plan, monthly
Public Library, ABC Life Literacy, Canadian Canoe
payment plan and banking information?
Museum, Merry-Go-Round Children’s Foundation,
Administration & Research Ontario Track III, Camp Winston, Royal Ontario
Waras – Associate Museum, Reena, Alzheimer’s & Dorothy Ley
Portfolio Administration & Research Hospice.
We are especially proud of our MacKay Weekly & Focus MacKay Group Wealth Management
List, Stock of the Day research and RBC Wealth www.mackaygroup.com
Management Research. Let me know if you would like to Brookfield Place
receive additional research. 181 Bay Street, Suite 2200
Toronto Ontario, M5J 2T3
Telephone: 416-842-7120
Available to meet at all RBC branch locations, like
Etobicoke, Mississauga, Collingwood, Muskoka Etc.
Page 12 10/18/2024
Disclaimer
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments.
Please read the fund facts and prospectus before investing. Mutual fund securities are not covered by the Canadian
Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government insurer. There can be no assurances that the fund will be able
to maintain its net asset value per security at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment in the fund
will be returned to you. Past performance may not be repeated. This information is not intended as nor does it constitute
tax or legal advice. Readers should consult their own lawyer, accountant or other professional advisor when planning to
implement a strategy. This commentary is based on information that is believed to be accurate at the time of writing, and
is subject to change. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Dominion Securities Inc.'s
judgment as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without
legal responsibility. Interest rates, market conditions and other investment factors are subject to change. Past performance
may not be repeated. The information provided is intended only to illustrate certain historical returns and is not intended
to reflect future values or returns. Securities or investment strategies mentioned in this newsletter may not be suitable for
all investors or portfolios. The information contained in this newsletter is not intended as a recommendation directed to a
particular investor or class of investors and is not intended as a recommendation in view of the particular circumstances
of a specific investor, class of investors or a specific portfolio. You should not take any action with respect to any
securities or investment strategy mentioned in this newsletter without first consulting your own investment advisor in
order to ascertain whether the securities or investment strategy mentioned are suitable in your particular circumstances.
This information is not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from your Investment Advisor. The commentary,
opinions and conclusions, if any, included in this newsletter represent the personal and subjective view of the investment
advisor [named above] who is not employed as an analyst and do not purport to represent the views of RBC Dominion
Securities Inc. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time
obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its
accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the
solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC
Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability
whatsoever in respect thereof. The returns and performance information presented here does not reflect actual client
portfolio or composite returns. The performance information presented in this report is based on a hypothetical model
portfolio, and is intended to help illustrate the general performance of the investment strategy while removing the
variability that results from implementation at a particular client level. The model portfolio reflects the actual investment
recommendations (buys, sells) of the strategy as they were communicated historically; however, a number of
implementation assumptions (which may include but are not limited to the timing and diligence with which the portfolio
is rebalanced, the execution price for securities transactions, and any trading and account related costs, fees, or
commissions) have been made when calculating the model returns that may be difficult or impossible for any investor to
exactly replicate the model portfolio. For this reason, there is no expectation that the model returns will perfectly replicate
the actual performance of any client following the same guided portfolio strategy. Specifically, the following assumptions
have been made when calculating model portfolio returns: the portfolio is rebalanced monthly and any time a change to
portfolio holdings is made; market close prices are used for all valuations; and returns are gross of all account fees and
transaction costs. Insurance products are offered through RBC Wealth Management Financial Services Inc. (“RBC
WMFS”), a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* RBC WMFS is licensed as a financial services firm in the province
of Quebec. RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC WMFS and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are
affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and RBC WMFS are member
companies of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. ® / TM Trademark(s) of Royal Bank
of Canada. Used under licence. © 2018 RBC Dominion Securities Inc. All rights reserved.
Page 13 10/18/2024