Cyber Strategy
Cyber Strategy
Max Smeets
To cite this article: Max Smeets (2020): U.S. cyber strategy of persistent engagement & defend
forward: implications for the alliance and intelligence collection, Intelligence and National Security,
DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2020.1729316
PERSPECTIVES ON INTELLIGENCE
ABSTRACT
This article evaluates the implications of U.S. cyber strategy of persistent
engagement for the alliance and intelligence collection. Whilst the strategy
may have benefits for certain alliance relationships, I identify four potential
negative consequences; loss of allied trust, disruption allied intelligence
operations and capabilities, exploitability of the strategy by adversaries, and
the implementation (and justification) of persistent engagement by other
countries. This paper concludes suggesting several ways forward, including
the creation of a new NATO-memorandum of understanding on cyber
operations.
The 2018 U.S. Cyber Command vision and the Department of Defense Cyber Strategy embody
a fundamental reorientation in strategic thinking.1 Based on the recognition that adversarial beha-
vior below the threshold of armed attack could nevertheless be strategically meaningful, U.S. Cyber
Command seeks to achieve ‘superiority through persistence’, that is constantly engaging with the
adversary – wherever they maneuver.2
Much has already been written about the implications of U.S. doctrinal change. The strategic shift
has, in particular, led to numerous critical remarks about the risks of escalation between the U.S. and
its main adversaries in cyberspace.3 Early on, Healey voiced concern that the change in strategy
would trigger the ‘new forever war in cyberspace’.4 In a more recent article, Healey analyzes the
implied causal chain of ‘persistent-engagement stability theory,’ and addresses how certain feedback
loops could potentially amplify or dampen cyber conflict.5 Others have argued that persistent
engagement deepens the cyber security dilemma – especially between the U.S. and China.6
The degree to which persistent engagement can help with the establishment of cyber norms has
opened a second line of debate. According to some proponents, persistent engagement is a form of
norms setting through practice, leading to a ‘comprehensive strategic great power competitive
space with its own distinct structural features.’7 Others are less positive that the strategy can create
a new normative area of competition – especially if it is not combined with other elements of
competitions in the economic, diplomatic, informational and military spheres.8
In addition, the shift in U.S. strategy together with a set of notable legal changes – particularly to the
authorisation and oversight architecture – has led scholars and practitioners to write more prolifically
about U.S. legal underpinnings of out-of-network operations.9 As a workshop report on military cyber
operations clarifies, three changes are most prominent: ‘Firstly, the changes confirmed that the [DoD] has
authority to operate in the cyber domain outside of the context of defending its own networks. Secondly,
they clarified when the executive can decide on the undertaking of operations outside US territory
without Congressional authorisation. [. . .] Thirdly, Congress explicitly articulated that the activity con-
ducted by U.S. Cyber Command does not constitute “covert action” as defined by US domestic law.’10
Overall, scholars have concluded that U.S. Cyber Command can now operate more swiftly as it is no
longer required to undertake the interagency process as before.11
Less systematic attention, however, has been devoted to the strategy’s implications for the
alliance and intelligence collection. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a benefit-risk assessment
of the US strategy on this issue.12 The assessment of this article takes place in five steps. The first
section notes that, historically, allied states operate in each other’s systems or networks in at least
two ways: as an observer, gathering intelligence on adversarial activity in others’ networks; and as
a passerby, transiting through allied systems and networks to access a certain adversarial target. It is
argued that, with the change in strategy, the U.S. now also seeks to be a disrupter, seeking to cause
friction for an adversary’s operation within an ally’s network or system. The second section addresses
the benefits of this activity and efforts of the U.S. to more closely collaborate with allies in this space.
It suggests US strategy of persistent engagement and defend forward can promote a stronger
defense as a whole – and for states with limited cyber capability in particular.13 The third section
subsequently discusses the four avenues of how the strategy could lead to negative implications for
the alliance: i) loss of trust due to offensive cyber effects operations in allied systems or networks; ii)
compromise of allied intelligence operations and capabilities; iii) exploitability of the strategy by
adversaries; and iv) the implementation (and justification) of persistent engagement by other
countries. The final section concludes and provides a potential proposal to move forward.
The term “blue cyberspace” denotes areas in cyberspace protected by the US, its mission partners, and other
areas DOD may be ordered to protect. [. . .] The term “red cyberspace” refers to those portions of cyberspace
owned or controlled by an adversary or enemy. In this case, “controlled” means more than simply “having
a presence on,” since threats may have clandestine access to elements of global cyberspace where their
presence is undetected and without apparent impact to the operation of the system. Here, controlled means
the ability to direct the operations of a link or node of cyberspace, to the exclusion of others. All cyberspace that
does not meet the description of either “blue” or “red” is referred to as “gray” cyberspace.19
INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY 3
Gray space is defined based on the ‘nodes’ adversaries control. This means the vast area between
U.S. government-owned networks and adversaries is not considered to be gray space. Instead, if for
instance the GRU (Russia’s military intelligence agency) controls a node in the Netherlands, it is
considered to be red space based on JP 3–12.20 And it is worth mentioning that the notion of control
is open to interpretation by states.
This means that if U.S. Cyber Command seeks to operate only in ‘red space,’ its activities will still
have global reach. It also suggests that red space grows as adversaries expand their operational
activity. Most importantly, this implies that if U.S. Cyber Command seeks to achieve ‘effects’ in gray
space, this will involve operating infrastructure that adversaries do not control – which is to say those
systems or networks on which adversaries merely have a presence or are not active at all.
What is really new here? The United States has long operated in networks ‘close to the adversary.’
As Ben Buchanan’s book, ‘The Cybersecurity Dilemma,’ demonstrates, the U.S. has long acted as an
observer outside of its own networks, gathering intelligence of adversarial activity in those others’
networks.21 In fact, information has become public concerning a case in which the Five Eyes
collected intelligence about an espionage platform (dubbed ‘Snowglobe’ by the Canadian
Intelligence Agency CSEC and ‘Animal Farm’ by Kaspersky Lab) of an allied country, France, likely
operating in adversarial networks in the Middle East.22 In other words, the practice of fourth-party
collection is nothing new.23 Furthermore, the U.S. has long acted in foreign non-adversarial networks
as a passerby, transiting through allied’ networks to access an adversarial network.
Yet, the new Cyber Command and Defense Department strategy changes the nature of the
U.S. military’s behavior within those systems and networks. Under the new strategy, Cyber Command
wants to be an active disrupter on those networks. It wants to achieve effects – that is to disrupt,
deny, degrade, and/or destroy. The only known precedent is U.S. Cyber Command operators wiping
Islamic State propaganda material off a server located in Germany.24 The German government was
notified in some fashion but not asked for advance consent, causing much frustration.25 This will
likely lead to a systematic scaling up: U.S. Cyber Command now also seeks to be an active disrupter
on those networks ‘globally, continuously and seamlessly’ – not regionally and sporadically.26
Out of network operations in allied networks also affect the turf war between the NSA and Cyber
Command – mostly critically Title 10 and Title 50 concerns.27 As Chesney summarizes:
From a legal perspective, the issue this [case of Germany] highlights is that operations abroad implicate the UN
Charter and related claims about international law protection of sovereignty. [. . .] Intelligence agencies can more
easily act in this setting when operating under Title 50 authority, as covert action status carries with it a statutory
obligation to comply with the U.S. Constitution and U.S. statutes – but no more than that. Title 10, in contrast,
carries with it no such implicit statutory shield against international law objections, and of course there is
a general Defense Department policy of international law compliance. Thus CYBERCOM operating under Title 10
would run into the full thicket of international law concerns.28
Overall, it is expected that operating in allied networks under Title 10 is likely to cause more legal
friction than operating under Title 50.
with allies and partners will increase the effectiveness of combined cyberspace operations and
enhance our collective cybersecurity posture.’31
The United States has also signed several memoranda of understanding and over the years
addressed cyber cooperation in some way, shape or form. In 2008, a MoU was signed between the
Department of Defense and the German Federal Ministry of Defence about computer network
defense and information assurance.32 A year later, a similar MoU on computer network defense
was signed with South-Korea.33
More recently, the Cyber Command worked alongside Montenegrin cyber defenders with as aim
‘to increase interoperability, build partner capability, and deter malign influence on the democratic
processes of our allies, partners and the U.S.’34 It was reported that U.S. Cyber Command personnel
operated in the networks of Ukraine and Macedonia as well to help those countries defend against
malicious cyber activity.35 At the 2019 Cyber Command symposium, specific examples were dis-
cussed on how cooperation can also help in not just detecting or deterring adversaries but also cause
friction in their operational activity.36 For example, the U.S. might upload foreign APT malware
samples on VirusTotal, an online malware repository and file scanning service, forcing adversaries to
go back to the drawing broad and adapt.37 One can think of several other scenarios how interna-
tional partnerships (also with the private sector) can help to ensure more coordinated take down of
adversarial operations – actions beneficial to both the US and its partners.
hosted implants for at least five Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors: Regin and the Equation
Group, Turla and ItaDuke, Animal Farm, and Careto.41 All of these APTs have been associated with
prominent national security and intelligence agencies. Equation group and Regin are connected to
the Five-Eyes. As said, Animal Farm has been attributed to France’s external intelligence agency.
Turla Group has been associated with the Russian federal security service (FSB). ItaDuke is said to
be linked to the Russian government too. Finally, it is theorized that Spain is behind Careto, also
known as ‘The Mask’.
Consider what would have happened if one of those five APT groups had sought to cause
a disruptive effect – rather than collect intelligence – against the target in the Middle East. It likely
would have resulted in much earlier discovery and analysis by threat intelligence companies (or
other actors) exposing the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) of each actor group.
Also, even the anticipation of more cyber effect operations in non-allied networks from one allied
state could lead to a change in operations by another state. Indeed, states have shown in the past
that the anticipation of early discovery of an operation has led to a change in their TTPs. For example,
the National Security Agency (NSA) created an ‘exploit orchestrator’ called FoxAcid, an internet-
enabled system capable of attacking target computers in a variety of different ways, depending on
whether it is discovered – or likely to be discovered – in a given network.42 FoxAcid has a modular
design, with flexibility allowing the NSA to swap and replace exploits and run different exploits
based on various considerations. Against technically sophisticated targets where the chance of
detection is high, FoxAcid would normally choose to run low-value exploits.
Third, allied friction could potentially be exploited by adversaries. Adversaries do not randomly
choose which intermediate nodes to direct their operations through. If Russia has the choice to go
through a network that would raise some serious diplomatic friction between the U.S. and a U.S. ally,
or operate through a network that would cause no diplomatic friction for the U.S., what would it
prefer?
It would make sense for adversaries to operate through the networks of exactly those countries
with which the U.S. has a strong relationship but that do not want the U.S. to operate within their
networks causing any effects. Russia is already good at exploiting divisions between the U.S. and its
allies. Cyber Command’s new strategy might give it another avenue to do so.
Fourth, whilst allies can integrate their cyber efforts into U.S. strategy of persistent engagement, if
allies would adopt their own strategy of persistent engagement – mirroring U.S. current doctrine and
practice – it would likely further undermine the alliance relationships. If US strategy of persistent
engagement leads allies to adopt their own strategy of persistent engagement, it would mean allies
also seek ‘superiority in cyberspace’; ‘continuously engaging and contesting adversaries and causing
them uncertainty wherever they maneuver’; and operating ‘seamlessly, globally and continuously’ –
as stated in the Cyber Command vision. More specifically, it would mean that allies seek to swiftly
achieve effects in systems and networks that are potentially located on U.S. territory, without
necessarily notifying the U.S. government before. In other words, it means that networks and
systems turn into red space and gray space for allies – like allied networks are now gray and red
space for the U.S. to actively disrupt and degrade adversarial operations.
It is unlikely that the U.S. government would react positively if Germany, or any other allied
country for that matter, hacks into a server hosting Russian propaganda that was located in the
United States, with some form of notification but without Pentagon’s consent.43 There are numerous
reasons why the US government would be upset with this type of behavior. It would likely be seen as
reckless from Germany – especially if the US was already on those same networks for intelligence
collection purposes.
An important dimension of this scenario is derived from the fact that the U.S. is a vast target rich
environment, potentially even prioritized as a target by adversaries such as China, Russia, North
Korea, Iran – as well as non-state actors. As stated above, red space and gray space are defined,
according to U.S. Joint Publication 3–12 on Cyberspace Operations, based on what ‘nodes’ adver-
saries ‘control’. There are many nodes adversaries (of US allies) want to control in the US. In other
6 M. SMEETS
words, if US allies would seek to swiftly disrupt and degrade cyber operations in red space and gray
space on a constant-basis, much of that would be in the United States.
Last year the NATO alliance reached a landmark that went largely unnoticed: there are now more
NATO member states that have publicly declared they are seeking to establish an institutional
capacity within the military forces to conduct cyber effects operations than there are member states
that have remained publicly silent on this issue.44 Yet, most NATO members are still at the early
stages of organizational development – and pour relatively few resources into their military cyber
organizations to conduct cyber effects operations.45 Their operational capacity is limited. France and
Germany stand out for the extent of resources officially allocated to their military cyber organizations
(beyond the Five-Eyes) – but public statements about these figures are generally hard to interpret
and compare given distinct institutional design across military cyber organizations of states.46 This
risk is therefore less significant for the short term, but is likely to grow in the medium to long term.
Furthermore, there is another crucial player involved. As Gen. Nakasone noted in the Joint Force
Quarterly article, cyberspace is owned largely by the private sector. They deserve a seat at the table as
well.49
Notes
1. US Cyber Command, “Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority”; and Department of Defense, “Cyber
Strategy 2019.”
2. Ibid.
3. Note, however, that the strategy itself is silent on this issue as Smeets and Lin note. Also, as Jacquelyn Schneider
notes, “It is almost impossible to prove assumptions about escalation. So much of escalation is based on
perceptions [.] that it is both impossible to say that an action will never lead to escalation or that it will always
lead to escalation.” Smeets and Lin, “4 A Strategic Assessment of the U.S. Cyber Command Vision”; and
Schneider, “Persistent Engagement.”
4. Healey, “Triggering the New Forever War, in Cyberspace”; and Healey, “The Implications of persistent (and
permanent) engagement in cyberspace.”
5. The paper also provides an excellent historical analysis of the intellectual and policy origins of the new strategy.
Healey, “The implications of persistent (and permanent) engagement in cyberspace.”
6. Buchanan and Williams, “A Deepening U.S.-China Cybersecurity Dilemma”; Chesney, “An American Perspective
on a Chinese Perspective on the Defense Department’s Cyber Strategy and ‘Defending Forward’”; Jinghua, “A
Chinese Perspective on the Pentagon’s Cyber Strategy”; and Jinghua, “What Really Matters in ‘Defending
Forward’?”
7. Fischerkeller and Harknett, “A Response on Persistent Engagement and Agreed Competition”; and Fischerkeller
and Harknett, “Persistent Engagement and Tacit Bargaining.”
8. Miller and Pollard, “Persistent Engagement, Agreed Competition and Deterrence in Cyberspace”; and Smeets,
“There Are Too Many Red Lines in Cyberspace.”
9. For early reporting on this see: Pomerleau, “New Authorities Mean Lots of New Missions at Cyber Command”;
and Borghard and Lonergan, “What Do the Trump Administration’s Changes to PPD-20 Mean for U.S. Offensive
Cyber Operations?”
10. Kaminska, Chesney, and Smeets, “A Transatlantic Dialogue on Military Cyber Operations,” For an excellent, more
in-depth overview see: Chesney, “CYBERCOM’s Out-of-Network Operations”; and Chesney, “The 2018 DOD Cyber
Strategy.”
11. On how interagency processes impacted the effectiveness and efficacy of cyber operations in the past see:
McGhee, “Liberating Cyber Offense.”
12. This means that this paper does not seek to provide a general review of persistent engagement and its
connected institutional development. For works attempting to conduct this type of exercise see: Smeets and
Lin, “Chapter 4: A Strategic Assessment of the U.S. Cyber Command Vision”; and Healey, “The implications of
persistent (and permanent) engagement in cyberspace.”
13. The meaning of cyber ‘capability’ or ‘power’ remains contested. For a discussion see: Betz and Stevens,
“Cyberspace and the State: Towards a Strategy for Cyber-Power”; and Hathaway, “Cyber Readiness Index 1.0.”
14. US Cyber Command, “Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority.”
15. Ibid.
16. Nakasone, “A Cyber Force for Persistent Operations.”
17. Goodman, Kirk, and Kirk, “Cyberspace as a medium for terrorists.”
18. USCYBERCOM, “2018 Cyberspace Strategy Symposium Proceedings.”
19. Joint Publication 3–12, “Cyberspace Operations.”
20. Ibid.
21. Buchanan, “The Cybersecurity Dilemma.”
22. GReAT, “Animals in the APT Farm.”
23. Guerrero-Saade and Raiu, “Walking in your Enemy’s Shadow.”
24. Nakashima, “U.S. military cyber operation to attack ISIS last year sparked heated debate over alerting allies”; and
Bing, “Command and control.”
25. Chesney, “Title 10 and Title 50 Issues When Computer Network Operations Impact Third Countries.”
26. See note 14 above.
27. Bing, “Command and control: A fight for the future of government hacking.”
28. Chesney, “Title 10 and Title 50 Issues When Computer Network Operations Impact Third Countries.”
29. See note 14 above.
30. Department of Defense, “Cyber Strategy 2019: Summary.”
31. Ibid.
8 M. SMEETS
32. Whilst the U.S. Cyber Command’s reported action may have violated Germany’s sovereignty, it didn’t explicitly
violate the MoU. But it wasn’t an act of CND; it was, but an act of a computer network attack (CNA), seeking to
disrupt, deny, degrade or destroy.; Unknown, “Memorandum of Understanding Between the Department of
Defense of the United States of America and The Federal Ministry of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany
concerning cooperation on Information Assurance (IA) and Computer Network Defense (CND).”
33. “Memorandum of Understanding Between the Department of Defense of the United States of America and The
Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea concerning cooperation on Information Assurance (IA) and
Computer Network Defense (CND),” (2 June 2009) https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2997984/
Document-04.pdf.
34. DoD News, “U.S., Montenegro Conduct Groundbreaking Cyber Defense Cooperation.”
35. Nakashima, “At nations’ request, U.S. Cyber Command probes foreign networks to hunt election security
threats”; and Barnes, “U.S. Cyber Command Bolsters Allied Defenses to Impose Cost on Moscow.”
36. U.S. Cyber Command, “The 2019 Cyberspace Strategy Symposium.”
37. Cimpanu, “US Cyber Command starts uploading foreign APT malware to VirusTotal.”
38. See note 36 above.
39. Smeets, “NATO Members’ Organizational Path Towards Conducting Offensive Cyber Operations.”
40. Modderkolk, “Dutch agencies provide crucial intel about Russia’s interference in US-elections.”
41. Kaspersky, “Spy Wars: How nation-state backed threat actors steal from and copy each other”; and Guerrero-Saade
and Costin Raiu, “Walking in your enemy’s shadow: when fourth-party collection becomes attribution hell.”
42. See the detailed discussion on exploit orchestrator FoxAcid: Schneier, “How the NSA Attacks Tor/Firefox Users
With QUANTUM and FOXACID”; and Smeets, “A matter of time.”
43. That is, mirroring the case of the U.S. hacking into the German server.
44. See note 19 above.
45. Furthermore, as Schneider notes, the resources to operate seamlessly and continuously are extensive. See:
Schneider, “Persistent Engagement.”
46. Delerue, Desforges, and Gery, “A Close Look at France’s New Military Cyber Strategy”; and Goetz, Rosenbach, and
Szandar, “National Defense in Cyberspace.”
47. As listed above, already memoranda of understanding exist on CND. These MoUs would focus on CNA.
48. A pre-operation identification of relevant equities and procedures can also promote operational and tactical
effectiveness of cyber command as less decisions have to be made on an ad hoc basis.
49. Nakasone, “A Cyber Force for Persistent Operations.”
Acknowledgements
For written comments on early drafts, I am indebted to Jamie Collier, Florian Egloff, Richard Harknett, Jason Healey,
Herbert Lin, James N. Miller, James Shires, and Diana van der Watt. I also thank the participants of the workshop ‘The
Transatlantic Dialogue on Military Cyber Operations’, held in Amsterdam in August 2019.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes on contributor
Max Smeets is a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS). He is also an Affiliate at Stanford University
Center for International Security and Cooperation and Research Associate at the Centre for Technology and Global
Affairs, University of Oxford.
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