FORECASTING OF PPE'S FOR COVID-19 OUTBREAK

No. of PPE/
Total
No. of per Quantity req. Quantity req.
HCW/ HCWs/ Estimated duration Total Quantity
S# Items Description Set Purpose Formula quarantine individual 40% Buffer Including 40% 60% Buffer Including 60&
Patients patients/ (12 weeks, 84 days) Required
facilities/sites or Facility / Buffer Buffer
Facilties
day
1 Surgical masks 30 1 30 3 84 7,560 3,024 10,584 4,536 12,096
2 Gloves 30 1 30 3 84 7,560 3,024 10,584 4,536 12,096
PPEs for Set A* = No. of Health Care Workers (HCW) X
3 Disposable caps A 30 1 30 3 84 7,560 3,024 10,584 4,536 12,096
Routine use No. of PPE sets X Estimated Days in Outbreak
4 Disposable gowns 30 1 30 3 84 7,560 3,024 10,584 4,536 12,096
5 Disposable shoe covers 30 1 30 3 84 7,560 3,024 10,584 4,536 12,096
6 Tyvek suits 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
7 Goggles 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
8 Face shields PPEs for Set B* = No. of Health Care Workers (HCWs) X 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
B
Specialized use No. of PPE sets X Estimated Days in Outbreak
9 Respirator N95 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
10 Surgical gown 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
11 Surgical masks (for patients) 180 1 180 4 84 60,480 24,192 84,672 36,288 96,768
12 Hand sanitizers 1 1 5 84 420 168 588 252 672
Approximation**:
13 Biohazard bags C Miscellaneous 1 1 10 84 840 336 1,176 504 1,344
14 Respirator N95 (for Lab workers) 15 1 15 1 84 1,260 504 1,764 756 2,016
15 Powered air-purifying respirator 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 1 3
*References:
1. Hashikura M, Kizu J. 2009. Stockpile of personal protective equipment in hospital settings: preparedness for influenza pandemics. Am J Infect Control. 37:703–707. (https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(09)00657-9/fulltext)
2. Naval Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU3) and USAID Egypt. 2011. Module 2: Principles of product selection and evaluation, stock planning of essential IC supplies. Program to Improve Quality and Safety of Healthcare in Egypt, Basic Infection Control Training Course
(http://reprolineplus.org/system/files/resources/IPC_M11_Programs.pdf)

** Approximations:
1. 100 patients at one facility to change surgical mask 4 times a day
2. 5 hand senitizers / facility/day
3. 10 Biohazard bags/facility/day
4. 2 powered air-purifying respirators/facility
The above estimations has been based on CDC guidelines on "Estimated Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) Needed for Healthcare Facilities" https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/ppe/calculator.html

Notes:
1. This is a living tool based on guidance available through international literature for forecasting of PPE's during differenct pandemics
2. Provsion for 40% to 60% buffer has been given catering for unexpected vast outbreak