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Insights into Amazon Air: 2020's Transportation Juggernaut Chaddick Policy

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 Insights into Amazon Air
2020’s Transportation Juggernaut
Chaddick Policy Brief
by Joseph P. Schwieterman and Jacob Walls
May 22, 2020

Our analysis indicates that Amazon Air is…

Putting more emphasis on cargo-only airports than most other package-shipment providers
More oriented toward daytime flights and point-to-point routes than FedEx and UPS
Expanding its fleet to 70 airplanes by 2021 and could grow to 200 planes in 7-8 years
Making Cincinnati (CVG), Chicago Rockford, Ontario, Tampa, and Wilmington (OH) focal points
Creating a CVG megahub that greatly boosts its potential to be a multi-purpose delivery provider

Amazon Air is 2020’s transportation juggernaut, flying above the

turbulence facing most cargo and passenger airlines during the coronavirus epidemic.
This wholly owned subsidiary of retailing giant Amazon is expanding rapidly to help handle
surging online buying. Amazon Air’s expansion marks one of the most significant
developments in the U.S. air-cargo business in years and gives boost to airports seeking to
cultivate freight traffic. Amazon Air is not to be confused with the retailer’s experimental
drone unit, which is known as Amazon Prime Air.
Joseph Schwieterman, PhD
This briefing offers an overview of Amazon Air, providing insights on its size, scope and
evolving logistics role. It draws upon data from four primary informational sources to
illustrate its economic and geographic orientation. 1

• Data on flight operations from flightaware.com and flightradar24.com

• Analysis of the proximity of Amazon Air airports to 170 fulfillment centers
• Fleet registration info from various sources, including planespotters.net
• Analysis of federal data on passenger and cargo traffic at the airports it serves. Jacob Walls

Eight findings from our analysis stand out.

Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development

DePaul University| Chicago, IL
chaddick@depaul.edu; 312.362.5732; chaddick.depaul.edu
cover photo credit: Flickr, Nathan Coats
Please refer to page 12 for author and research-team biographies.

1
Observation 1. The growth of Amazon Air is a cornerstone of the retailer’s push
to expand its presence in the overnight and two-day home delivery market, a
segment that has long been dominated by FedEx, UPS, and the United States
Postal Service. Amazon Air’s orientation, however, differs from these more
established carriers in several notable ways.

Since making its maiden flight in 2016, Amazon Air has been on a rapid growth trajectory, having grown
to 42 airplanes by May 2020 and announcing plans to have at least 70 airplanes by 2021. In just three
years, it has become a major component of Amazon’s overnight and two-day delivery business. Amazon
Air complements the retailer’s massive ground-
based shipping network, which by one estimate
now surpasses 20,000 trucks. 2 The carrier’s
growth is being spurred by the expansion of
Amazon Prime, which heavily promotes
overnight and second-day delivery, and there
has been speculation that the COVID crisis has
accelerated the carrier’s expansion.

Based on estimates by our DePaul team

presented below, Amazon Air now operates
almost 100 flights per day despite being still
primarily confined to North America. The An Amazon Air Boeing 767-300 freighter, the larger of the two airframe
steady flow of investment to expand Amazon models in the carrier’s fleet, operated by Atlas Air. Amazon Air was
Air paves the way for the retailer to both reduce formerly known as Amazon Prime Air, as the plane’s livery shows. Photo
reliance on FedEx, UPS, and USPS and— credits: Flickr, Nathan Coats
eventually—possibly enter the general package
delivery market (i.e., the business of delivering not only packages generated on the Amazon platform,
but others as well) in competition with FedEx and UPS. If and when that occurs, however, remains a
matter of speculation. Amazon has not announced plans to do so, and it took a modest step in the
opposite direction in April when it temporarily stopped shipping packages from Amazon sellers who do
not keep inventory in its warehouses, reportedly to allow it to focus on its own customers. 3

Amazon Air, being largely designed to support purchases on the Amazon platform, has many of the
qualities of a private carrier, much like the private trucking lines that serve Costco, Target, and Walmart.
Data on the amount of cargo it ships is not publicly disclosed. Its flight network appears designed largely
to augment the services of DHL International, FedEx, and UPS, such as by filling critical links between its
fulfillment and sorting centers, rather than being designed to replace them outright (DHL primarily
serves the international market).

Amazon Air has built large sorting facilities at numerous airports, including Chicago Rockford, Ontario,
CA, Tampa, FL, and Wilmington, OH. In some cases, these facilities are adjacent to FedEx and UPS
sorting centers, creating logistical synergy. If Amazon can’t ship you a product by the promised deadline
using its own trucks and planes, the package can be turned over to one of the integrators or USPS.

The massive investment being made in a large hub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International
Airport, however, could change everything. This hub appears to be the lynchpin to Amazon’s efforts to

2
develop a comprehensive array of domestic delivery services across the United States. This hub, when
complete, will likely have a role similar to the FedEx “megahub” in Memphis.

Observation 2. Amazon Air is operated by five contractors: Atlas Air, Air

Transport International, Southern Air, and Sun Country Airlines.
The outsourcing approach used by Amazon Air follows the preferred strategy of its parent, which adheres to a
similar approach for its familiar over-the-road delivery trucks and vans. Because its contractors do not
report Amazon-specific data to a federal agency, statistics about how much Amazon Air traffic they
handle are not available. Estimates of the general size of the contract carriers, with a projection of the
amount of Amazon traffic they handle, however, appear at the end of this report.

Amazon Air flights constitute a large share of cargo operations by four of these carriers, accounting for
more than half the fleet of Air Transportation International (ATI) and more than a third of the fleets of
Atlas Air and Southern Air (Southern Air is a subsidiary of Atlas Air). ATI, in which Amazon is reportedly
acquiring a minority equity stake, is part of Air Transport Services Group, a company based at
Wilmington Air Park, OH. 4 Amazon Air accounts for all four of Sun Country’s freighters, although that
carrier’s operations were launched only in late April. This Twin Cities-based carrier is predominantly a
passenger airline, giving it a less cargo-centric orientation than the other contractors. The fifth carrier,
ABX, is another subsidiary of Air Transport Service Groups. None of ABX’s planes, however, were
identified in our analysis as being operated for Amazon Air, making its role unclear. 5 (The legal
relationship of the above entities is complex and evolving.)

Figure 1. Fleets operated by Contracted Carriers for Amazon Air

80

70

60 19

50

40

30
50
20 16
5
10
12 13
4
0 0
Atlas Air Air Transport Int'l Southern Air Sun Country ABX

Regular Fleet Amazon Air

Caption: All four of Amazon Air’s contract carriers devote a significant share of their freighter fleet to serve the retailer. Sun
Country is alone among the four to operate scheduled passenger service.

3
Among these four contractors, only Atlas Air operates a larger fleet of freighters unrelated to its Amazon
business. Amazon made headlines this month when it announced it would begin using its own
employees to load and unload some Amazon Air planes, which reportedly could cut substantially into
contractor revenues. 6

Observation 3. Amazon Air’s fleet is still relatively small compared to those of

FedEx and UPS, and it has shied away from jumbo jets, preferring instead mid-
size freighters. By 2021, however, it could rank among the world’s largest cargo
airlines and, we believe, it is reasonable to anticipate its fleet to grow to
perhaps 200 airplanes within seven or eight years.

The 42 airplanes presently operated for Amazon Air make it a mid-size cargo carrier—and one much
smaller than the three dominant “integrators”, FedEx (463 planes), UPS (275), and DHL (77). 7 These air-
freight integrators, however, operate worldwide networks, so their planes are spread throughout a half-
dozen continents, whereas Amazon flights are largely confined to North America. Even so, Amazon Air
already has a fleet that is larger than some prominent global cargo airlines, including CargoLux (27) and
Lufthansa Air Cargo (a subsidiary of Lufthansa Airlines having 13 planes). Note, however, that there is
much uncertainty about the actual fleets of some airlines, due to different reporting practices across the
globe and the pervasiveness of outsourcing, which can result in fleet totals being understated. 8

Figure 2. Fleets of World’s Largest (and Selected U.S.) Cargo Airlines

Based on fleet counts from planespotters.net

500
450 431

400
350
300 257
250
200
200
150 104 89 77
100 71 70 69 60
42 28 27
50 18 18 13
0

Caption: For consistency, all estimates of fleet sizes are estimates of planes in service by the planespotters.net website. These
estimates understate the fleet sizes of certain airlines due to the fact they exclude certain planes operated by contractors.
Amazon’s fleet is projected by Morgan Stanley to grow to around 100 in 2025 and to 200 by 2028 by our study team.
* See Appendix (page 13) for a discussion of this Chaddick Institute estimate.

4
If Amazon Air achieves its stated goal of having 70 planes by 2021, the carrier’s fleet size will be similar
to the present size of DHL (77) and China Airlines Cargo (71), potentially putting it in the top seven in
the world (while reiterating there is considerable uncertainty in the above fleet-size estimates, and
certain carriers may be missing from Figure 2). Other cargo airlines may grow as well, but, due to the
pandemic, some appear poised to downsize or grow only cautiously.

Reports have been made that Amazon

Air could eventually have 100 Amazon-
branded planes serving the Cincinnati
hub alone. Our analysis suggests that
it is reasonable to expect Amazon Air’s
fleet to grow to 200 airplanes in the
next 7 – 8 years. Although this is only
a projection—the company has not to
our knowledge made known its long-
range plans—this estimate appears to
be a conservative one, considering
that Amazon may well aspire to give
Amazon Air a global presence, and
that its Cincinnati megahub could An Amazon Air Boeing 767-300 airplane, with a Boeing 747 of Atlas Air, one of its
account for only a minority of flights. main air-cargo contractors, in the distance. Nathan Coats
Growth from 39 planes to 200 planes
from 2019 to 2028 requires a 19.9% compound annual growth, less than half that previously achieved by
the company since 2016 A Morgan Stanley estimate (made early in 2019) that Amazon could have 100
planes by 2025 requires a 17.0% compounding rate of growth. 9 Although our required growth rate is
slightly higher, some of the expansion could be in the form of smaller airplanes (including twin-engine
turboprops) or the acquisition of other cargo airlines (See detailed discussion of our projection in the
Appendix, page 13).

When measured on the basis of the available lift (cargo carrying capacity) of its planes, Amazon Air has
a lower ranking among cargo airlines. At present, Boeing 767s account for about 90% of its flights, with
the remainder being Boeing 737s, both of which have less cargo-carrying capacity than the B747s,
MD11s, A300s, and other large jets commonly used by other cargo airlines.

Observation 4. The network of airports that Amazon Air serves is designed to

link fulfillment and sorting centers rather than provide comprehensive coverage
across all of North America. Although Amazon Air does not yet serve points
within or near many major cities, its network puts the vast majority of the U.S.
population within a day’s truck drive of an airport that is served.

Our research team prepared the following map that shows the juxtaposition of airports served by
Amazon Air with its warehouses. The 170 warehouses identified are clustered by geographic region
using GIS software (Figure 3).

5
 Figure 3. Juxtaposition of Airports Served and Fulfillment Centers for Amazon Air

Caption: This maps shows the proximity of Amazon Air’s airports on the U.S. mainland to its fulfillment centers. The red circles
designate airports with Amazon flights, based on a sample encompassing flights on a randomly selected day. Some airports
with only periodic service are not shown.

Airports on Map. Lehigh Valley, Allentown-Bethlehem, (ABE), Baltimore/Washington (BWI), Charlotte (CLT), Chicago/Rockford
(RFD), Cincinnati (CVG), Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW), Denver (DEN), Fort Worth Alliance (AFW), Hartford, CT (BDL),
Hartsfield/Atlanta (ATL), Houston (IAH), John F. Kennedy (JFK), Lakeland Linder (LAL) Miami (MIA), Minneapolis (MSP), Ontario
(ONT), Phoenix (PHX), Portland (PDX), Providence (PVD), Riverside, March Air Reserve Base (RIV), Sacramento (SMF), St. Louis
(STL), San Antonio Kelly (SKF), San Bernardino (SBN), San Francisco (SFO), Seattle (SEA), Stockton (SCK), Tampa (TPA),
Wilmington (ILN).

Amazon Air’s network emphasizes proximity to its fulfillment centers, many of which are a considerable
distance from dense urban centers. The company has a network in which flights do not necessary arrive
or depart at locations close to the customer but instead are integrated with Amazon’s vast network of
trucking routes to close the spatial gaps. Several major cities, such as Detroit, MI, Kansas City, MO,
Indianapolis, IN, and Salt Lake City, UT, for example, are not served by the airline but are within an eight-
hour drive (and in most cases only a few hours) from one of its airports. Service to Charlotte, NC,
Providence, RI, and San Bernardino, CA is expected to commence soon.

Amazon Air serves the enormous New York City market primarily from its hub at the relatively small
Lehigh Valley International Airport, in Allentown-Bethlehem, PA, which is about 90 miles from

6
Manhattan and handles only about 2% of the passenger traffic as Newark Liberty International.
Customers between Philadelphia and central Virginia are primarily served from its
Baltimore/Washington International Airport hub. Both are endpoints for an expansive system of trucks
and vans.

Our analysis also suggests that there could be a need for additional airports on the Amazon Air system in
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, as well as in metropolitan Chicago. This analysis will be
available in mid-summer 2020.

Figure 4. Amazon Air Flight Network on a Typical Day, April 23, 2020
Flights departing 6 a.m. – 10:59 p.m. in orange; overnight flights in blue

This map shows roughly 90% of Amazon Air’s flights on a typical day, based on itineraries from flightradar24.com on April 23,
2030. One transoceanic flight, linking Anchorage to Inchon, South Korea, is not shown. Our analysis indicates the Amazon Air
planes make an average of 2.1 flights daily.

7
Observation 5. Amazon Air’s network of flights gives it a highly decentralized
orientation, although this is poised to change.

Our research team has tracked the origins and destinations of Amazon Air flights on several occasions.
Most recently, it recorded the itineraries of about three-quarters of Amazon Air flights on April 23, 2020
(Some flights could not be tracked due to missing information on airplane registration numbers). The
airports with the most Amazon Air flights over the course of this day (Figure 5) showed that
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport is the busiest station (24 flights), followed by Tampa,
FL (16), Chicago Rockford, IL (15), Wilmington, OH, and Ontario, CA (both 13). These totals may
moderately understate flight activity due to airplanes we were unable to track. Please refer to the
Appendix for a complete list.

Figure 5. Busiest Amazon Air Airports

April 23, 2020

Total
Airport Notes
Flights
Cincinnati (CVG) 24 Emerging megahub; also DHL's primary hub
Tampa (TPA) 16 Traffic could diminish with opening of Lakeland-Linder
Chicago/Rockford (RFD) 15 Also a major hub for UPS
Wilmington (ILN) 13 Headquarters of contractor ATI
Ontario (ONT) 13 Also a major hub for UPS
Seattle (SEA) 9 Used for international flights to Asia
Houston (IAH) 9 One of four airports in Texas Triangle
Fort Worth Alliance (AFW) 8 Also a mini-hub for FedEx
Allentown/Bethlehem (ABE) 6 Serves New York City and Philadelphia regions

Note: These estimates may modestly understate flight activity due to lack of information on certain flight itineraries.

The above analysis illustrates the point made earlier that Amazon Air’s network does not yet have the
breadth to allow Amazon to provide the same range of service as FedEx and UPS. It is designed partially
to compete with—and partially complement—the services of these other companies. Such
complementarity is reflected in the fact that three of the five airports having the most Amazon Air
flights—CVG, Chicago Rockford, and Ontario—are major hubs for air-freight integrators.

Other schedule-related differences between Amazon and air-freight integrators are also noteworthy.
Whereas FedEx and UPS flights are scheduled to support next-day shipments, much of Amazon Air’s
design appears still oriented partially for second-day delivery, which makes having flights in the middle
of the night less critical. About three-quarters of Amazon Air flights, our evaluation suggests, depart 6
a.m. – 10:59 p.m., local airport time, a virtual mirror image of the integrators, which are largely
nocturnal creatures. Amazon Air schedules are also more dynamic. Although FedEx and UPS schedules
are highly predictable, Amazon’s vary considerably from day to day.

At present, Amazon Air has a less hub-centric design than the integrators. Only about 20% of its

8
domestic flights use the Cincinnati hub, less than the share of FedEx and UPS flights using their
“superhubs” at Memphis and Louisville, respectively. As noted in Observation 6, however, this will likely
change.

Observation 6. Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) is

being equipped with specialized facilities for package sorting and transshipping
to distant cities to allow the airport to become Amazon Air’s “superhub.” The
new facilities are expected to be completed in 2021 and will likely dramatically
change Amazon Air’s geographic profile.
The development of the Cincinnati hub is facilitated by an agreement with DHL allowing for the cross-
utilization of facilities. This will apparently allow Amazon to use DHL facilities primarily during the day,
when they are generally underutilized. Several notable indications about the probable role of CVG stand
out:

• Amazon is investing $1.5 billion in a 3 million square foot building at the hub, with truck bays
designed to support shipments across the country.
• The state of Kentucky is building a new interchange on I-275 to support this massive
development, as well as widening several other highway routes.
• An estimated 200 flights per day are reportedly expected to use the hub.
• As many as 100 Amazon-branded planes could operate from CVG. The site being developed
reportedly has capacity for 100 Amazon planes. 10

The development of CVG, however, remains in a relatively early phase. Much of these needed facilities
are not expected for completion until later in 2021. Expanding to 200 flights per day from these
facilities (up from only about two dozen today) also likely requires a much larger fleet than the 70 planes
anticipated to be on the Amazon Air roster by 2021.

Observation 7. Amazon Air’s aggressive growth plans bode well for advocates of
airports dedicated to handling freight traffic. The carrier is less focused on
operating from airports with a mix of passenger and cargo traffic than the air-
freight integrators.

Airports oriented primarily toward cargo have had mixed success in recent decades. Many have been
bypassed by the air-freight integrators, which have generally opted for creating hubs at airports with a mix of
cargo and passenger traffic (such as Louisville and Memphis, each of which handles more than 3 million
passengers annually). Six of Amazon’s roughly two dozen operational focal points, however, are airports
with little or no passenger traffic: Chicago Rockford (in Rockford, IL), Fort Worth Alliance, Ohio’s
Wilmington Air Park, San Antonio’s Kelly Airport, and California’s Stockton and Riverside airports.
Among these six, only Chicago Rockford and Stockton have any scheduled passenger service, and
neither handles more than 300,000 passenger per year.

Moreover, service is expected to begin soon to Lakeland Linder International, a general aviation airport
near Tampa, FL that has no scheduled passenger flights. Amazon Air will reportedly also start flights

9
soon to San Bernardino International Airport, a cargo-only facility. As a result, more than a quarter of
Amazon Air’s principal focus points could soon be cargo-oriented airports. This is a far greater share
than that of FedEx or UPS, which operate large hubs at only two cargo-focused airports, Chicago
Rockford (UPS) and Fort Worth Alliance (FedEx).

Figure 6. Cargo Oriented Airports served by Amazon Air

Allentown/Bethlehem
Chicago Rockford

Wilmington
Stockton

San Bernardino
Riverside

Fort Worth Alliance

Cargo-only (or general aviation)
airport; no scheduled passenger service Lakeland
Cargo-focused airport handling fewer
San Antonio Kelly )
than 300,000 passengers/year
Cargo-focused airport handling
300,000 – 1 million passengers/year

Caption: Amazon Air has a far greater orientation toward airports that have minor roles in scheduled passenger travel (defined
as handling fewer than 300,000 passengers per year). Among the eight meeting this criterion, only Rockford and Stockton have
any regularly scheduled passenger service at all (Amazon Air service to Lakeland and San Bernardino is expected to begin soon).
Allentown/Bethlehem handles fewer than 1,000,000 passengers annually and thus also has a cargo orientation.

Observation 8. Amazon Air’s growth trajectory will make it difficult for the retailer
to maintain harmonious relationships with FedEx and UPS. Amazon’s decision to
stop delivering packages not generated through its platform temporarily eases
tensions, but the carrier is poised to eventually return to the broader business-to-
consumer market.

Amazon has an uneasy relationship with FedEx and UPS, which are taking steps to deal with its ever-
growing presence in the home-delivery business. Amazon Air’s apparent low costs and its synergy with
the retailer’s vast network of fulfillment centers suggest it is positioned to grow rapidly. FedEx decided
not to handle certain Amazon traffic late last year for financial reasons. 11 On the whole, UPS appears to
be more vulnerable to Amazon Air’s expansion than DHL or FedEx. 12

According to the Global Research unit of Bank of America, “Amazon is approaching a truly vertically
integrated logistics network on par with the largest delivery companies in the world.” However, as
previously noted, it has not achieved this yet: its network is still less well-developed than that of FedEx

10
and UPS. In 2019, Amazon delivered an estimated 2.3 billion packages in the United States, which were
largely comprised of goods purchased on its own platform. 13 That number, while impressive, is
considerably below the 3.1 billion and 4.7 billion total packages delivered (and generated from many
different buying platforms) on FedEx and UPS, respectively. The USPS delivered 6.2 billion.

The carrier’s growth will generate tensions with established operators—and surprises. Rival airlines and
logistics operators will make strategic moves to protect their business as the fast-growing startup
expands its fleet and grabs a bigger piece of the air-cargo pie. Long-established players may drive an
ever-harder bargain in negotiations—to the extent their market position allows it.

But it is noteworthy that, at a time when many other airlines are downsizing due to the pandemic,
Amazon’s push for faster and cheaper at-home delivery is moving ahead on an ambitious timetable.
Amazon Air’s robust expansion makes it one of the biggest stories in the air cargo industry in years.

11
 Authors and Study Team

AUTHOR: Joseph P. Schwieterman, Ph.D., a professor of Public Service

Management and director of the Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan
Development at DePaul University, is a nationally known authority on
transportation and urban economics. He is author of the book Air
Cargo and the Opening of China and editor-in-chief of Issues in Aviation
Law and Policy, a DePaul journal.

AUTHOR: Jacob Walls is a research associate at the Chaddick Institute

who has supported several policy publications, including our 2019 study
of ridesharing prices. Jacob is presently pursuing a Master of Public
Policy degree at DePaul and has a bachelor’s degree from North Central
College.

DATA TEAM: C. Scott Smith, Ph.D., is assistant director of the Chaddick

Institute for Metropolitan Development, and adjunct professor at
DePaul University. He has a Ph.D. in Planning, Policy and Design from
the University of California, Irvine and a Master of Environmental
Planning from Arizona State University.

EDITORIAL TEAM: Steve Rudolph, M.Ed., J.D., is manager of Chaddick’s

Air Transport Policy Initiative and managing editor of DePaul’s Issues in
Aviation Law and Policy journal. He was formerly executive director of
the International Aviation Law Institute at DePaul’s College of Law.

GRAPHIC DESIGNER: Jessica Kupets is a second-year Master of Public

Policy student at DePaul University. She completed her bachelor’s
degree in Community Health and Communication Studies at the
University of Kansas.

12
 Appendix

Figure 7. Arrivals and Departures on Amazon Air

April 23, 2020

767 737
Rank flights flights Total
1 Cincinnati (CVG) 20 4 24
2 Tampa (TPA) 10 6 16
3 Chicago/Rockford (RFD) 7 8 15
4 Wilmington (ILN) 13 0 13
4 Ontario (ONT) 13 0 13
6 Seattle (SEA) 9 0 9
6 Houston (IAH) 5 4 9
7 Fort Worth Alliance (AFW) 8 0 8
8 Allentown/Bethlehem (ABE) 6 0 6
8 Portland (PDX) 4 2 6
8 Miami (MIA) 6 0 6
8 Baltimore/Washington (BWI) 6 0 6
12 Stockton (SCK) 4 0 4
12 Sacramento (SMF) 4 0 4
12 Riverside (RIV) 4 0 4
12 Phoenix (PHX) 2 2 4
16 Honolulu (HNL) 4 0 4
16 Denver (DEN) 4 0 4
16 Anchorage (ANC) 4 0 4
19 Windsor Locks (BDL) 2 0 2
19 San Francisco (SFO) 2 0 2
19 San Antonio (SKF) 2 0 2
19 Minneapolis (MSP) 2 0 2
19 John F. Kennedy (JFK) 2 0 2
24 Incheon, South Korea(ICN) 1 0 1

Note: these estimates are based on flights by 38 of the 42 planes reported as being part of the Amazon Air Fleet on April 23,
2020. Flight activity was monitored on flightradar24.com, a prominent flight-tracking website.

13
 Basis for projected fleet of 200 Amazon Air planes in 7 – 8 years

Amazon’s growth from 18 planes to 39 planes from 2017 to 2019 (Figure 8) resulted in a 47.2%
compound annual growth. Growth from 39 planes to 200 planes between 2019 and 2028 requires a
compound annual growth rate of 19.9%, less than half that previously observed. The completion of
facilities at Cincinnati (CVG) and expansion in international markets could result in growth for the next
several years well above 20%, allowing for more modest growth in the latter part of the period and still
achieving the 200-plane threshold (As noted earlier in the report, only one international flight was
among the 84 flight itineraries observed on April 23, 2020). Reports have indicated that the Cincinnati
hub alone will have room for 100 Amazon Air planes.13

The Morgan Stanley estimate, publicized in early 2019, that Amazon could have 100 planes by 2025
requires 17.0% compounding rate growth between 2019 and 2025.14 Although Chaddick’s projected
growth rate is marginally higher, it should also be noted that some of the expansion could be in the form
of smaller airplanes, similar to the those (including twin-engine turboprops or the Cessna 208B Super
Cargomaster equipment used by FedEx Express) used on many feeder routes operated by contract
carriers for FedEx, or through the acquisition of another cargo airline. It is unlikely that shortages of
equipment will be a deterrent to growing at this pace. It would require Amazon Air to add, on average,
about 1.5 planes per month through 2028.

If Amazon reaches the 200-plane threshold, its fleet would likely remain well under a third as large as
FedEx’s, when equipment operated by contract carriers for this Memphis-based carrier is included. As
such, there are compelling reasons to believe that the 200-plane estimate is reasonable.

Figure 8. Growth of Amazon Air Fleet, 2016 – 2019

Number of Planes

45

40 39
35

30

25 26

20
18
15

10

5
4
0
2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Historical estimates; planespotters.net.

14
 Issues in Aviation Law & Policy
The Chaddick Institute is home to the widely circulated peer-reviewed journal Issues in Aviation Law and
Policy, featuring timely works from authors around the world. “IALP” covers both legal and policy issues
affecting civil aviation as well as matters related to commercial airports and other aspects of aviation.
Please email chaddick@depaul.edu for subscription information or a complimentary copy.

15
1
The authors based all comments on publicly available data while acknowledging uncertainty that exists with regard
to the growth trajectory of Amazon Air.
2
A widely circulated report that Amazon’s truck fleet has reached 20,000 is available at
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/amazon-doubles-truck-fleet-to-20-000-in-one-year/.
3
A summary of Amazon’s exit from the third-party delivery market for Amazon sellers who do not keep inventory
in its warehouses is provided in this CNN.com article from April 8, 2020, available at
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/tech/amazon-third-party-shipping-suspended/index.html.
4
The description provided of the legal relationships among Air Transport Services Group, ATI, ABX, and Amazon
Air is based on secondary sources. These relationships are complex and evolving, and beyond the scope of this
study. Readers may wish to consult Air Transport Services Group resources for details of its various holdings.
5
None of the planes operated by Amazon Air are reported as being part of the ABX fleet on planespotters.net. It is
possible, however, that ABX is using parts of its regular fleet for this purpose.
6
The announcement that Amazon will handle much of the loading and unloading is reported in this Business Insider
story, available at https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-in-housing-air-cargo-prime-airlines-earnings-partners-
2020-5.
7
These estimates are based on tallies in planespotters.net. Totals do not include planes operated under contract.
Estimates of the size of fleets differ between various sources.
8
The practice of some cargo airlines to outsource makes definitive estimates of their sizes difficult. This article
illustrates some of the issues surrounding competitive contracting: https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/freighter-
operator/unions-call-for-halt-to-cargolux-outsourcing-plan/. The practice of using contractors varies around the
world, but it is particularly problematic for estimating the size of Amazon Air, which is operated entirely by
contracted carriers that report only aggregate transportation statistics (both Amazon and non-Amazon traffic
combined) to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
9
A summary of the Morgan Stanley projection is provided in this Business Insider article, available at
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-100-planes-by-2025-2019-1.
10
A discussion of the proposed Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International (CVG) hub is available at
https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2019/05/15/here-s-what-amazon-s-air-hub-at-cvg-will-look-like.html.
11
FedEx’s decision to cease handling Amazon traffic (which was reported to have “minimal” impact on its
revenues), is reported in this U.S. News & World Report article from June 7, 2019, available at
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2019-06-07/fedex-will-stop-air-shipments-of-packages-for-amazon.
12
For a more detailed discussion of the risks posed by Amazon Air’s expansion to FedEx and UPS, please refer to
this Barrons.com article, available at https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-is-a-delivery-powerhouse-look-out-
fedex-ups-usps-51587403739.
13
A discussion of the proposed Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International (CVG) hub is available at:
https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2019/05/15/here-s-what-amazon-s-air-hub-at-cvg-will-look-like.html.
14
A summary of the Morgan Stanley projection is provided in this Business Insider article, available at
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-100-planes-by-2025-2019-1.

16
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Josephs, L. (2019, June 18). Amazon Adds 15 Boeing 737 Freighters to Grow Air Fleet to 70 Planes by 2021. CNBC
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Planespotters.net. Amazon Air. Available at www.planespotters.net.

Schwieterman, Joseph P. (1993). Air Cargo and the Opening of China: New Opportunities for Hong Kong, Hong
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Shane, S. (2019, November 30). Prime Mover: How Amazon Wove Itself Into the Life of an American City. The New
York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/business/amazon-baltimore.html.

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