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Dax Key Levels 101

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
803 views45 pages

Dax Key Levels 101

DAX+KEY+LEVELS+101

Uploaded by

Tarik Maatouch
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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DAX • KEY LEVELS 101

VER. 1.0
Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com
DISCLAIMER
All TRADING/INVE STING involves high risk and YOU can LOSE a substantial amount of money, no matter what method you use. All trading/investing
involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results . This course is for educa tional use only – Not to be u tilized as
trading/investing advice.

Commission Rule 4.41( b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have cer tain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record,
simulated results do not represent actual trading/investing. Also, since the trades have not actu ally been execu ted, the results may have under- or over-
compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity . Simula ted trading/investing programs in general are also subject to
the fact tha t they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representa tion is being ma de tha t any account will or is likely to a chieve profits or losses
similar to those shown.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PE RFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT T HEY ARE GENE RALLY PRE PARED W ITH T HE BE NEFIT OF HINDSIGHT . I N
ADDITION, HYPOTHE TICAL TRADING/INVESTING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHE TICAL TRADING/INVESTING RECORD CAN
COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACT UAL TRADING/INVESTING . FOR E XAMPLE, T HE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO
ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING/INVESTING P ROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING/INVE STING LOSSES ARE M ATERIAL P OINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVE RSELY
AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING/INVE STING RESULTS. T HE RE ARE NUMEROUS OT HER FACTORS RELAT ED TO MARKETS IN GE NERAL OR TO T HE IMPLEME NTATION
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING/INVE STING PROGRAM W HICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR I N T HE P REP ARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PE RFORMANCE
RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING/INVESTING RESULTS.

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN ALL TRADING/INVE STING. P AST P ERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUT URE RESULT S. ALL RE SULT S ARE HYPOTHETICAL . NO
IMPLICATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANYONE UTILIZING ANY OF T HE INFORMATION IN T HIS COURSE HAS OR CAN OBTAIN SUC H PROFITS AND RESULTS.
THIS INFORMATION IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL AT T HIS TIME, BUT ME RELY A PRESE NTATION OF TRADE S ST RATE GIES . T HE
INFORMATION CONTAINE D HE REIN HAS BEE N OBTAINE D FROM SOURCES BELIEVE D RELIABLE BUT IS NOT GUARANTE ED AS TO T HE ACCURACY OR
COMPLETENESS. PLEASE CHECK MARKET FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL CONDITIONS BEFORE CONSIDERING THESE OR ANY TRADES.

This is not a prospectus ; no offer on our part wi th respect to the sale or purch ase of any securities is intended or implied, and nothing contained herein is
to be construed a s a recommendation to take a position in any market . It is possible that a t this da te or some su bsequent da te the instructor owns
securities or buy or sell securities mentioned in this publication or those not so mentioned. The intent of the information supplied in this document to the
student is for instructional purposes only. The information supplied in this document to the student is intended to be purely educa tional. The ma terial
presented herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be a ccurate, bu t we do not guarantee its a ccuracy . There have been no promises,
guarantees or warranties suggesting th at any trading/investing will result in a profit or will not result in a loss. The student is responsible for his own
actions regarding any trading/investing. All historical performance trading/investing system results are not achievable in real trading/investing because
slippage and psy chological factors can not be accur ately a ccounted for. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in
this course are provided as general market commentary, and do not constitute a trading/investment advice. None of the content published in this
document constitutes a recommendation tha t any particular asset, portfolio of assets, transaction or investment stra tegy is sui table for any specific
person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, v alue or sui tability of any
particular asset, portfolio of assets, tr ansactions, investment stra tegy or other ma tter. The au thor of this document is not responsible for any losses
incurred as a result of using any of our trading/investing stra tegies or concepts . Loss-limiting stra tegies su ch as stop loss orders may not be effective
because market conditions or technological issues may make it impossible to execute such orders. Information provided in this document is intended
solely for informational purposes and i s obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guar anteed . No guarantee of any kind is
implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

All trading/investing involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

THE INFORMATION AND ANY SCORES IN THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS ADDITIONAL RESOURCES WILL NOT BE CONSIDERE D AS FINANCIAL ADVICE AND SHOULD
NOT BE USE D AS A BASIS FOR TRADING/INVESTME NT . * T HE INFORMATION IN T HIS DOCUME NT OR ITS ADDITIONAL RE SOURCES ARE PERSO NAL OPINIONS
AND E VALUATIONS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDE RE D T RADING/INVE STMENT ADVICE. * T HIS DOES NOT RE PRE SE NT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION TO BUY,
HOLD, OR SELL ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL INST RUME NT . * YOU SHOULD CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE TRADING/INVESTING
AND SEE K FOR P ROFESSIONAL ADVICE. * TRADING INVOLVE S A HIGH DE GREE OF RISK AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED O NLY BY P ERSONS WHO CAN
AFFORD TO SUSTAIN A LOSS OF THEIR E NTIRE CAPITAL. * ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESE ARCH BEFORE T RADING/INVESTING AND DO NOT RELY ON ANY
OTHER ANALYSIS BUT YOUR OWN. * NE VER TRADE/INVE ST MORE MONEY T HAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE . * THE INFORMATION IN T HIS DOCUME NT OR
ITS ADDITIONAL RESOURCES IS NOT EXHAUSTIVE AND ERRORS MAY BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE CONTENT OF THE DOCUMENT.

By continuing to read this document you acknowledge all the information above.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 2


FOREWORD
Important information, do NOT skip!
• This document is a summary of my knowledge and expertise in the DAX index.
• It does NOT provide a singular strategy or pattern, so don’t expect a magic pill
• Actually, patterns themselves are worthless without understanding the
context in which a certain market operates at a specific point in time.
• Truth is NO course, book or teacher can make you a profitable trader. They
CAN guide you on the right path, but nothing beats years of experience trading
an asset. Over time, you will start observing market behavior and developing
an intuition.
• Any person claiming they can turn you into a profitable trader after watching
their course or subscribing to their service is a fraud. Trading as a profession
cannot be taught overnight, only concepts, ideas, examples and correct
thought processes.
• Unfortunately, I am not able to include 100% of my own know-how and intuition
into this document because that's a 'sixth sense' you develop over time on
your own. Instead, I can only provide some meaningful dots for you to connect.
• Inside this document you are going to find useful DAX institutional concepts
and data that can complement your own strategy or learning curve. It’s your
job to invest the time necessary to see all of these concepts in action and
create an action plan.
• Apart from the official DAX-Xetra terms, all concepts are original, not being
taught anywhere else as far as I know, nothing was “borrowed” from someone
else. I am referring to OA-R©, IDA-R©, SC etc. I hope you’re going to enjoy my
work!

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 3


INTRODUCTION TO DAX
First steps towards understanding the DAX index

• The German DAX index is traded at an institutional level via the Frankfurt Stock
Exchange (XETRA) and consists of 40 major blue-chip companies in Germany.

• Important! The entire discussion will refer only to the DAX Futures chart
(symbol FDAX1! on TradingView), not CFD broker charts.

• Important! All time references are only CET (Central European) times. So,
wherever you live, make sure to have your TradingView chart timezone set to
Berlin time.

• DAX can be traded as futures contracts via FDAX (€25/pt), FDXM (mini-DAX,
€5/pt) or FDXS (micro-DAX, €1/pt), or as a CFD on most brokers (symbol DE30,
DE40 or GER40).

• To trade the DAX futures on TradingView, you’re going to need to refer to the
specific / current contract using the correct month code (H for March contract,
M for June contract, U for September contract, Z for December contract).

• Therefore, to trade the FDAX March contract of 2024 you need to search for the
FDAXH2024 symbol in TradingView.

• Similarly, the FDXM June contract for 2024 is going to be referred as


FDXMM2024 for example, whilst the FDXS contract for December 2024 is going
to be FDXSZ2024. A bit complicated at first, but you’ll get used to it, I promise ☺

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 4


INSTITUTIONAL DAILY ROUTINE
How and when are the big boys operating in the DAX market?

• What very few people talk about in trading is TIME from an institutional
standpoint. We hear all kinds of fancy words about time and related major price
levels, but almost no one tells you about the ‘why’ behind properly timing the
market as a day trader

• First and foremost, you need to learn WHEN to hunt for trades and WHEN NOT
to. Some time intervals are way more likely to provide trade setups and real
moves than others. Of course, time is not the only factor to consider but it
comes first

• Based on the trading schedule of institutions in the DAX index, as well as based
on the experience you develop over the years focusing on this instrument alone,
you can derive a roadmap of when to look for trades and when to expect lower
probability of movement

• Let’s dissect the day-to-day routine of the institutions trading the DAX index.
And this is public data from XETRA’s website by the way, not out of my azz. But
few people know where to look and what to look for. Let’s talk about Auctions!

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 5


WHAT ARE AUCTIONS?
Let’s familiarize ourselves with this term, first and foremost

• Officially, the trading methodology that takes place on XETRA each and every
day is called “Continuous trading with auctions”.

• Auctions are small, well-defined windows of time during which institutional


traders and investors place/match their orders for buying or selling DAX in the
T7 trading platform.

• These orders might be of type market, limit, stop, as well as other more
advanced types that I am going to touch on towards the end of this document.

• These auctions are performed electronically/algorithmically, and their main


purpose is to concentrate liquidity and allow for the submission of high-volume
institutional orders.

• This is when investment funds, pension funds, banks or other large players are
focused on placing their orders. And this is important for us, too.

• The rest of the day, outside these small windows of time, is called continuous
trading or regular trading hours.

• Next, we’re going to discuss the 3 daily auctions.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 6


AUCTION TIMES
Let’s get down to the nuts and bolts of this, shall we?
• 8:50 – 9:00 CE(S)T – Opening auction – This auction determines the opening
price of the day via an algorithmic procedure. London open is at 9:00 CE(S)T.
• 13:00 – 13:02 CE(S)T – Intra-Day Auction (IDA for short) – Mid-day auction
introduced in recent years to allow a new time window for institutions to inject
liquidity into the market. This auction ends with an algorithmic procedure that
lasts between 13:02:00 and 13:02:30 CE(S)T.
• 17:30 – 17:35 CE(S)T – Closing auction - This auction determines the
closing/settlement price of the day via an algorithmic procedure. The daily
Settlement Price is derived from the VWAP of the prices of all trades executed
during the last minute before 17:30 CET and it is a reference price for
institutions to calculate their short-to-medium-term portfolio returns /
unrealized profits / losses.
• 17:35 – 17:45 CE(S)T – Trade-at-Close phase – Immediately follows the Closing
auction and allows institutional traders to place their last orders of the day
based on the closing price.
• Important! In my own analysis, I treat the Closing auction and Trade-at-Close
phases as a singular phase between 17:30 – 17:45 CE(S)T.
• Before 9:00 AM, the Pre-trading phase can also be traded, but I prefer not to.
After 17:45, DAX is still traded in the Post-trading phase until 22:00 CE(S)T, but
that is usually irrelevant for me as well.
• See Figure 1 (1 st row) for the entire Auction flow and all of DAX’s trading phases.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 7


AUCTION TIMES

• Figure 1 - Auction flow and all of DAX’s daily trading phases. Credits to xetra.com

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 8


CUSTOM TRADING SESSIONS
From the information discussed previously, I derived my own daily trading times
• As a direct result of the schedule above, I have defined 4 intra-day sessions for
my own analysis, 3 of which I usually care about just to see if their highs/lows
get raided during the same or next day, or simply to define my working schedule
• Frankfurt Opening Session – 8:00 - 9:00 CE(S)T – I like to see the London
Opening Session manipulate this session’s high or low. I don’t usually trade this
session, but it can prove to be a good reference for the London open price action
• London Opening Session – 9:00 - 11:00 CE(S)T – This is where I look for setups,
most of the time. More on this later.
• IDA Session – 13:00 - 15:30 CE(S)T – I trade this in certain scenarios, but
sometimes not the best session to trade mainly due to US major news releases
around 14:30 in most days. More on how I trade this session later.
• New York Overlap Session – 15:30-17:45 CE(S)T – I rarely trade this. But I’m
going to touch on this session’s characteristics a bit later, too.
• The time between 11:00 and 13:00 is usually less active, let’s call it the “Lunch
Hours”. There are some exceptions around 11:00 – 11:15 when reversals or deep
retracements of the morning’s intra-day trend may occur.
• Important! You can use the LuxAlgo Sessions indicator to set these custom
sessions on your FDAX chart. Make sure to check Use Exchange Timezone in its
settings!
• See Figure 2 on the next page for my customized intra-day DAX Sessions.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 9


• Figure 2 – My customized intra-day trading sessions

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 10


THE SETTLEMENT PRICE (SP)
What is the Settlement Price?
• CME (cmegroup.com) says it better than I can: “Daily settlement prices reflect the
fair market value of the underlying commodity or financial instrument, as
determined by buyers and sellers during the settlement period or “close”.
Settlement prices are used to mark traders’ positions to market daily,
determining profits or losses. Daily settlement prices play a key role in
facilitating price discovery, risk management, and market integrity.”
• Eurex (eurex.com) explains how it’s being determined: “The daily settlement
prices for the current maturity month are derived from the volume-weighted
average of the prices of all transactions during the minute before 17:30 CET,
provided that more than five trades transacted within this period.”
• So, notice that the SP is definitely a key institutional level to watch on the charts
• You can get yesterday’s SP on your FDAX chart in any of these 3 ways:
• You can use the Eurex official website, go to Statistics and pick the correct date.
See D. Settle on the 1st row. Mark it on your chart using a horizontal line.
• https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/idx/dax/DAX-Futures-139902
• You can use the "Settlement price" indicator on TradingView. It’s free.
• You can mark the close of yesterday’s Daily candle (have SET on in TradingView).
• Preferably, I want to take short positions if the price is at or above the SP and
OA-R©, and I want to enter long if the price is at or below the SP and OA-R©. This
is optional regarding the SP, but mandatory regarding OA-R©. Therefore, it’s
solely up to you to use the SP as an additional confluence for determining if price
is in a super-discount or super-premium zone.
• See Figure 3 on the next page to see the Settlement Price on my chart (in red)

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 11


• Figure 3 – Having the SP on my FDAX chart using the Settlement Price indicator

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 12


TRADING THE LONDON MORNING SESSION
What is the Opening Auction Range aka OA-R©?

• Quick recap from earlier: 8:50 – 9:00 CE(S)T – Opening auction

• So, we know that during this time interval the Opening auction takes place. But
what is the OA-R© and how can this range be of any help to you, the DAX
trader?

• Knowing it’s a 10-minute time window, I switch to the M10 timeframe on my


chart

• As soon as 9:00 hits and we get the London Open, I mark the High and Low of
the previous M10 candle (8:50 – 9:00) either with the same Fib tool or with a
rectangle

• I only want to take short positions if the price is at or above the OA-R©, and
preferably if the price also raids the high of the Frankfurt Opening Session
(8:00 – 9:00 CE(S)T) .

• Conversely, I only want to take long positions only at or from below the OA-R©,
again preferably if the price also raided the low of the Frankfurt Opening
Session.

• I never want to buy in a super-premium zone, or sell in a super-discount zone,


although I know that sometimes I’m going to miss some violent and large
moves. It is what it is.

• See Figure 4 on the next page to see the correct way of drawing the OA-R©

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 13


• Figure 4 – Drawing the Opening Auction Range (OA-R©)

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 14


• Figure 5 – Looking for trades based on the OA-R©

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 15


TRADING THE IDA SESSION
This is the session following the Intra-Day Auction and preceding the NY Open

• Quick recap from earlier: 13:00 – 13:02 CE(S)T – Intra-Day Auction (IDA for short)

• The Intra-Day Auction enables a new time window for institutions to inject
liquidity into the market during the day.

• I usually trade the IDA Session on a secondary account. This session is a


transition phase between the morning London session (+ the “Lunch Hours”) and
the New York Overlap Session which starts at 15:30 CET (9:30 NY Time).

• To quote Miroslav Budimir, Senior Vice President, Deutsche Börse AG:

• „A Xetra Intraday Auction is initiated by a two-minute call period (or at least five
minutes on Eurex Settlement days), followed by a “random end” phase which can
last up to 30 seconds. This phase is required in order to prevent gaming of the
auction price.“
• „[...] the intraday auction offers institutional investors an opportunity to execute
large blocks at fair and reliable prices”
• “Deutsche Börse expects a strong growth for its Intraday Auction. With other
markets picking up this trading form more and more market participants will
almost certainly adapt the idea of intraday auctions and start participating,
eventually creating a virtuous circle of liquidity.”
• Source: The Xetra intraday auction: Growing potential for strong price discovery,
Best Execution | Winter 2014/2015 (LINK)

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 16


THE INTRA-DAY AUCTION RANGE (IDA-R©)
The process for determining the IDA-R© is similar to the one I use for the OA-R©...

Again, the IDA takes place during this 2-minutes interval: 13:00 – 13:02 CE(S)T

• Switch to the M2 timeframe and mark the High and Low of the M2 candle that
opened at 13:00 and closed at 13:02. I use an orange rectangle or Fib to mark the
IDA-R©. Also, I usually call it “IDA Open”. Don’t ask me why ☺

• Before opening a trade during the IDA Session, ask yourself "Is the WHY still
there?" e.g. H1 lows untouched or Overnight gap still unfilled (or other obvious
logical targets that you may identify on the chart. More on other logical targets
later.)

• Expect to see bullish manipulation of the IDA Open in a bearish scenario or


bearish manipulation of the IDA Open in a bullish scenario, then watch for clear
LTF setups towards the WHY. On the next page, notice the quick and shallow
bearish manipulation of IDA Open right after 13:00 CE(S)T (was cleaner on the M1
timeframe). Notice also how the price then closed above IDA Open and the clean
retest.

• I have no standard degree or depth of manipulation in terms of points that I


need to see in order to consider it a valid manipulation. For instance, in a bullish
scenario, as long as the price drops below the IDA-R© (IDA Open) and then
provides a clear LTF setup towards the WHY from below the IDA-R©, then I’m
ready to take action.

• Even better, if the price drops below the IDA-R© and then sharply rises above it,
then I will wait for a clear retest of IDA-R© and consider an entry there, again,
as long as the WHY is still there.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 17


• Figure 6 – Marking the IDA-R© (IDA Open) on the chart

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 18


• Figure 7 – Bullish scenario during the IDA Session

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 19


TRADING THE NY OVERLAP SESSION
I rarely trade during the NY Overlap session, simply because I can’t trade all day…

• However, if you’d like to trade this session, remember it starts at 15:30 CET.

• Wait for a bearish manipulation move at/after 15:30 CET (9:30 NY Time) if you're
bullish or a bullish manipulation move if you're bearish. The first 30 minutes of
the NY Overlap Session is usually when this kind of manipulation moves occur.

• Best case scenario, the manipulation move should revisit key institutional
levels, such as the OA-R©, Settlement Price or IDA-R© (IDA Open). In some
cases, even the prior day’s OA-R©, SP or IDA-R© might get hit.

• Ask yourself "Is the WHY still there?" e.g. H1 highs untouched or Overnight gap
still unfilled, or other clear, significant logical targets that you can spot.

• Watch for clean LTF setups towards the WHY around or right after 16:00 CET
(10:00 NY Time).

• Usually, some of the best setups occur anytime between 16:00 and 16:30 CET. As
time passes, the probability of a great setup occurring decreases, as the DAX is
heading towards its official closing phases at 17:30 – 17:45 CET.

• In Figure 8, notice the quick, shallow bearish manipulation candle right at 15:30
CET (beginning of the pink zone denoting the NYO Session), testing the OA-R©
Mid, also manipulating the IDA-R©. The price then closed above IDA-R©,
retested it a few times until 16:30 CET, then attacked the H1 highs.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 20


• Figure 8 – Long setup during the NY Overlap Session

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 21


RECAP OF DAILY KEY PRICE & TIME LEVELS (CONT.)
We can classify the DAX Key Levels into two categories:

1. Key Reference Levels


Each day, you are using this type of key levels as a reference. If the market context is
bullish, you’re looking to go long from below a Key Reference Level. If the overall trend
is bearish, the best shorts can be executed from above the key level.
• Current day’s Opening Auction Range (OA-R©) - During the London Opening Session
• Current day’s Intra-Day Auction Range (IDA-R©) – During the IDA and NY Sessions

2. Key Reaction Levels


Once the price goes below/above your chosen current day’s Key Reference Level
(based on market context), look for lower TF reactions at Key Reaction Levels like:
• A previous OA-R©
• A previous IDA-R©
• A previous Settlement Price (SP), especially if untested yet!
• A Settlement Cluster (SC©), discussed later

• Note! Preferably, previous OA-R© and IDA-R© levels should not be older than 1
trading week (5 trading days), unless they are extreme, untested levels, meaning
levels that even if older than a week, they haven’t been yet tested by the market.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 22


HELPFUL TOOLS FOR OVERALL MARKET DIRECTION
Trouble identifying the overall trend or estimating medium-term market direction?
• Might sound funny or obvious (duh!) , but zoom out to a higher timeframe, such
as the Daily (or at least the H4), stand up, take 2 steps back and … use your
EYES!
• Simply acknowledge the first impression while looking at the chart – is it going
UP or DOWN, overall, over the past couple of weeks? May sound stupid, but it
works.
• www.seasonax.com – Tool for checking the seasonality for every tradeable
asset. Check out what the historical data says about the current month/quarter
of the year. I’m not affiliated with any of the services on this page.
• www.dailyfx.com/sentiment - Tool for assessing the current retail sentiment in
the market. Values of 75%+ always catch my attention. If 75-80-85% of retail is
bearish, then I’m looking to long the DAX each and every day. And vice versa ☺
• https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate - Interest rates may also
play a key role in Germany’s stock market. For instance, after many rate hikes
over the past couple of years, the ECB stopped hiking at the end of October
2023, maintaining the same rate of 4.5% from September. This was bullish for
the markets, and the proof was the aggressive rally in November-December
2023.
• See what strongly correlated indices are suggesting: ES, YM, NQ, CAC40, FESX.
• Also monitor what is the US Federal Reserve doing in terms of interest rates.
• I don’t personally use indicators like moving averages to determine the trend
(not a fan of chart porn) but if you feel they might be of any help then use them
• Do WHATEVER IT TAKES to trade with the general trend and NOT against it!

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 23


LOWER TF ENTRIES & TAKE PROFIT LOGICAL TARGETS
Once I have assessed the market context, how do I handle my LTF entries?

• LTF entries/setups/patterns and take profit targets are very subjective, depending
on each trader’s personality, risk tolerance, fear, greed and experience.

• If I have the WHEN, WHERE & WHY all present at the same time, my entry can be
any (but not limited to) of the following:
• M15 strong bullish/bearish candle or engulfing candle
• M5 candle closing below previous candle / above previous candle
• M1/M2 structural break followed by a small ‘retest and go’
• M1/M2 double top or double bottom

• Entries are entirely up to each trader to evaluate and execute, no matter if you
just use an engulfing candle as a signal, or more advanced entry techniques.

• Now, when it comes to Take Profit targets, again there are no rules set in stone
here. This also depends on technical factors (such as the actual price action
during that particular trade), as well as mental factors such as fear and greed.

• Personally, I usually tend to go for 2 TP logical targets (details on the next page)

• And since I know someone’s going to ask:


• TP1 is usually 50-80% of my initial position size, then I bring my SL to BE
• Basically, I see TP1 as my salary for the day, and TP2 as a performance bonus ☺

• When scalping (I rarely do this) using key levels such as OA-R©, SP or IDA-R©, I
usually go for 10-20 points with the full size and that’s it, plain and simple.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 24


TAKE PROFIT LOGICAL TARGETS (CONT.)
I’ve mentioned logical targets as TP targets a few times already, so…
• As I previously mentioned, I usually tend to go for 2 TP logical targets and
take partials at these levels. So, let’s see what qualifies as a logical target.
• TP1 might be any of the following:
• Fixed R:R ratio, such as 1:2 or 1:3 (I’m letting go of this slowly, over time)
• The mid level of the current or a previous OA-R©
• The opposite extremity of the OA-R© (OA-R© High for longs, Low for shorts)
• One end of the overnight gap (if any, and depending on the gap size)
• Any other unfilled overnight gaps nearby
• Any nearby, untouched Settlement Prices
• Any nearby Settlement Clusters© (SCs discussed later)

• TP2 might be any of the following:


• The H1 lows/highs which I identified as my WHY
• Obvious lows/highs from yesterday’s London Opening/IDA/NY session
• Obvious nearby lows/highs that I might notice on the D or W charts
• Any unfilled overnight gaps from the previous days
• Any nearby, untouched Settlement Prices
• Any nearby Settlement Clusters© (SCs discussed later)

• That’s basically it. What actually matters is identifying clear, logical, obvious
institutional levels that might act as a magnet for price, in line with the
overall HTF market trend. Don’t be a hero, never ignore the trend!

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ADVANCED DAX TIPS: SETTLEMENT CLUSTERS© (SC)
Settlement Clusters© – sounds smart and complicated, right? Well…
• As their name suggests, SCs are clusters of 2 or more (rarely 3 or 4) daily
Settlement Prices “bundled together” around the same price level
• Important! As a rule of thumb, no matter how many SPs make up a SC, the
price difference between the highest SP and the lowest SP should not exceed
10 DAX points. This is my own rule, based on my experience and testing.
• Now, let’s remind ourselves the importance of the SP: “Daily settlement
prices reflect the fair market value of the underlying commodity or financial
instrument, as determined by buyers and sellers during the settlement period
or “close”. Settlement prices are used to mark traders’ positions to market
daily, determining profits or losses. Daily settlement prices play a key role in
facilitating price discovery, risk management, and market integrity.”
(cmegroup.com)
• For all the above reasons, it’s fair to conclude that the SP is a key price level
for the institutions involved in trading and investing in the DAX index
• Moreover, it’s also good logic and common sense to assume that various
institutional players may have valid reasons to: a) keep previous SPs “in
mind” as references for assessing their portfolio performance and current
market exposure, and b) use previous SPs to accumulate/distribute new
positions or scale into / scale out of existing positions. Whichever the case,
SPs can play the role of temporary fair market value for institutional
traders/investors.
• Consequently, a cluster of neighboring SPs may prove to be even more
relevant and powerful as “fair market value” and “price discovery”
benchmarks

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ADVANCED DAX TIPS: SETTLEMENT CLUSTERS© (SC) CONT.
Settlement Clusters© – Very important considerations regarding SCs
• Important! SCs usually form during short-to-medium periods of price consolidation
or a recent lack of aggressive trend. For this reason, they may turn out to be a
valuable tool for intra-day scalping when positional trading is not the best option
(e.g. during pre-FOMC/NFP/CPI days, or periods of sideways PA).

• Important! Following up on the previous point, Settlement Clusters© can sometimes


prove very efficient as confluences for entering positional trades. When used in
conjunction with expected manipulation moves (right after London Open, IDA-R©
manipulations or NY Overlap manipulations at 15:30 CET), they can be a powerful
tool in your trading arsenal.

• Important! SC©s should be used only as confluence factors with other concepts –
such as the ones discussed throughout this document – and NOT by themselves.
Price touching a SC© does not necessarily generate a reaction. SC©s can prove to
be useful confluences for both scalping & positional trading (depending on context).

• There is no need to find and mark all the SC©s that you identify on the chart. This
will just clutter your chart. Instead, whenever you expect a manipulation move such
as the ones I mentioned above, go to the M15 or H1 timeframe, zoom out and see if
there’s any SC© that you can easily spot in recent days or couple of weeks. If so,
mark it out and extend it to the right. See if it lines up with other key levels or the
current price action. Be patient, it will take time to develop this observation skill!

• In the following Figure, notice the Settlement Clusters© marked rectangles, the
Settlement Prices that make up each cluster marked with a red line as usual, and of
course the reactions that these key levels have generated.

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• Figure 9 – An entire week of price bouncing between SC ©s

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IDEAS FOR AN INTRA-WEEK APPROACH TO TRADING THE DAX
As a bonus, I will give you my intra-week strategy as well, which is quite simple.

• First of all, my main expertise is in Day Trading, and not Swing Trading. Also...
• You have to develop PATIENCE! Also, you must ACCEPT the fact that you can hold a
trade for several days and it can end with a Stop Loss or Break-Even.
• Main aspects of this intra-week strategy:
• It rarely generates more than 2-3 trades per week. The entry can occur any day of the
week, however I would not enter on a Friday. The max. risk per trade I use is 1%, with 2
TP targets. Do NOT trade during CPI, NFP, FOMC days or 1 day before each of these
news days! It’s way riskier to be stopped out.
• STEP 1:
• Determine the overall (HTF) market trend – Daily/Weekly – as discussed earlier inside
this document. Trust me, do NOT take counter-trend swing trades! Always trade with
the HTF trend! Have the probabilities on your side.
• STEP 2:
• Each week, mark Monday’s OA-R© – this is your Key Reference Level for the entire
week. In a bullish context, look for longs only from below this level. In a bearish
context, look for shorts only from above this key level. If Monday is a holiday and the
market is closed, then you use Tuesday’s OA-R© as reference.
• STEP 3:
• On the M30 timeframe, watch for a strong bullish/bearish candle (depending on the
market context) and wait for the candle to close! Very important also, it’s best to look
for this candle during the IDA & NY sessions, since many times the London Opening
Session (+ lunch hours) are used for counter-trend manipulations. Again, wait to see
a strong, CLOSED M30 candle, have patience!
• Side notes:
• This strategy is the one I use. You can choose to use H1 candles if you see fit. Also, it’s
up to you if you let a portion of your trade size to run over the weekend and into the
next week. But it’s best to take TP1 before the week ends and place your SL at Break-
Even to avoid any surprises next Monday at open.
• Entries can be taken also after the NY Overlap session ends, during the NY afternoon
session (or after 17:45 CET), however be careful because some days may have low
volume and volatility in the afternoon or evening.

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• Figure 10 – Example of intra-week trade (Bullish)

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• Figure 11 – Example of intra-week trade (Bearish)

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UPDATE: OPTIMAL SETTINGS FOR YOUR FDAX CHART
Let’s summarize some essential settings and enhance your FDAX chart...

• Firstly, no matter if your trade Futures or CFD, always use the FDAX1! chart

• Secondly, to have access to real-time data, subscribe via TradingView: Go to


your account, then Account & Billling – Products – Market Data – Select
country: European Union – Eurex Exchange. It’s just a couple of bucks/month.

• Use the “Settlement price” & “LuxAlgo – Sessions” indicators on your chart

• In the settings of the “LuxAlgo – Sessions” indicator, make sure to:


• Have all the correct session times configured and checked
• Have the Range checkbox checked as well, to show the sessions
• Have “Use Exchange Timezone” checked
• Set the Range Area Transparency to about 90
• Have “Range Outline” checked to clearly mark each custom session
• Have “Range Label” checked to easily identify each custom session
• In the Style and Visibility tabs, everything must be checked

• See Figure 12 on the next page to get all the settings that I use.

• Credits to LuxAlgo for such an amazing indicator!

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• Figure 12 – Optimal settings for the DAX custom sessions

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UPDATE: HOW TO ORGANIZE YOUR CHART EFFICIENTLY
The key-levels in this document are efficient, but how to keep your chart nice & clean?

• I’m going to provide you with two solutions to keep your chart clean and organized

• If you mark too many key-levels on your chart, it can become cluttered, avoid that!

• Option #1:
• Have a separate chart for each type of key-level. I always have 3 additional charts
saved in TradingView, one for recent / nearby Settlement Clusters (SC©), one for
recent / nearby OA-R©s, and one for recent / nearby IDA-R©s. I usually want to have
at least the last 3 most recent key-levels marked, for each type of key-level.
• As a time-saving trick, you can set an alarm on each chart, a few points above or
below the next key-level from where the price currently is, in order to not be glued
to the chart all day long.
• Check out Figures 13-15 to see my separate charts for each key-level type.

• Option #2:
• Use one chart only, where everyday you mark out the OA-R© in the London Opening
Session (depends on what you prefer to use as a Key Reference Level) & the IDA-R©
in the IDA Session. Then, if you’re in a bullish context, zoom out on your chart and
find the next 2-3 potential Key Reaction Levels that are sitting below the Key
Reference Level. Place an alarm at each of them. In a bearish context, do the same
procedure for levels above the Key Reference Level. Now your chart is clean!
• Check out Figures 16-17 to see what my main chart looks like in this scenario.

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• Figure 13 – Option #1, separate chart with nearby 3 SC©s

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• Figure 14 – Option #1, separate chart with the last 3 OA-R©s

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• Figure 15 – Option #1, separate chart with the last 3 IDA-R©s

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• Figure 16 – Option #2, bullish scenario, 3 nearby key-levels marked below the OA-R©

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• Figure 17 – Option #2, bearish scenario, 3 nearby key-levels marked above the OA-R©

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 39


BROKERS AND FUNDING FIRMS WHERE I TRADE THE DAX
I’ll share with you the brokers/firms I had no problem trading with, thus far...

• Do your own research regarding these companies or any other such services!
• For full transparency, some of the links below are affiliate links.

• Top regulated CFD Broker:


• IC Markets

• CFD Prop Firm:


• FTMO

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FRIENDLY ADVICE ON MINDSET. DO NOT IGNORE THIS!
I’ll share with you the most painful and useful lesson the market has taught me.

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Trade what you SEE, NOT what you BELIEVE!

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Better be right during the entire trend and wrong a few times at the
end of the trend, then be wrong during the entire trend and be right
once at the end of the trend. Read that again, let it sink in.

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Do not put your opinion or ego above your PnL. You’re in this business
to make money, not to be a contrarian. Your only job is “Number go up”

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Institutions move the market, not you. No one cares about your
contrarian analysis. You’re a nobody, an account number. Stay humble!

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Do not make sterile predictions for clout chasing. Just follow your plan,
logic and common sense. Do not over-risk. Just reach for clear targets.

• Do NOT fight the Higher Timeframe trend!


• Do not fall in love with your own opinions or bias. Always zoom out at
the beginning of each day. If the trend change is clear, you change bias.
Otherwise, stay the course.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 41


MINDSET RESOURCES THAT HELPED ME EVOLVE AS A TRADER
I have no affiliation with these products, authors or YouTube channels.

• 3 books that I think every trader must read and understand:


• Trading in the Zone
• Best Loser Wins
• Phantom of the Pits

• 10 videos or playlists to meet very experienced traders


• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9mf7dzoij4
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_1jWwYzib8
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzN-zNK68qg
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJQDlk6VFI4
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGglyvc8d58
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UTbzIOvhTw
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD5nQzbm0iI
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkRw6NC0Jew
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FMX4qRBMWY&list=PLnSelbHUB6
GR24-88XjIUTFaybVRQLW8f
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKQSVC8kHvo&list=PL7BbDF6SP86
KMcBk81ueQyK9NrTZfF4uA

• Enjoy! ☺

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FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
Go through this document at your own pace, as many times as you
need. Take notes. There are many moving parts in trading, many
nuances, and you need time to develop experience and intuition.
Stop jumping from strategy to strategy for f*ck’s sake! Stop learning
patterns and dreaming of magic pills and holy grails. I’m talking to
you as a friend would. I’ve been there, I know it hurts, I know it’s
frustrating.
Make your only goal to understand the asset that you’re trading as
profoundly as possible. Become a specialist, not a jack of all trades.
Stop listening to random bozos online, most of them know f*ck all
about trading. Be independent, be a critical thinker, be yourself!

One great analogy that always stays in the back of my mind is chess.
In chess, most pieces on the table are pawns. They have a limited
lifespan in the game, usually being eliminated fairly quickly.
Only in rare cases, and with the right moves, does a pawn manage to
promote, exceed its own condition and leave the crowd behind.
Trading is the same.

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 43


THANK YOU
TraderFDAX

@TraderFDAX on X

www.traderfdax.com

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 44


COPYRIGHT NOTICE
Do not, under any circumstance, share, redistribute, resell, rebrand any of the concepts,
strategies and key-levels described in this document without the author’s permission.

@TraderFDAX on X

www.traderfdax.com

Copyright © @TraderFDAX, traderfdax.com 45

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