Laportaetal (1997)
Laportaetal (1997)
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   Several recent studies, including those in                   ciation between trust and the dominance of a
 Diego Gambetta (1988), as well as studies                      strong hierarchicalreligion in a country, most
by James Coleman (1990), Robert Putnam                          notably Catholicism.
 (1993), and Francis Fukuyama (1995), ar-
 gue that trust or social capital determines the                                       I. Argument
performance of a society's institutions.
These studies view trust or social capital as                       Economists have developed two views of
a propensity of people in a society to coop-                     trust as a tendency to cooperate. One view,
erate to produce socially efficient outcomes                    rooted in repeatedgame theory, holds thattrust
and to avoid inefficient noncooperative traps                   is a priorthat an opponent is cooperativerather
such as that in the prisoner's dilemma.                         than fully rational (e.g., plays only tit-for-tat
Putnam (1993), for example, examines so-                        in a repeated prisoner's dilemma). A higher
cial capital as a determinant of the perfor-                    prior in a repeatedprisoner's dilemma leads to
mance of local governments across Italian                       a greater likelihood and duration of coopera-
regions. He demonstrates that the Italian                       tion (David Kreps et al., 1982). Another view,
regions in which the public actively partici-                   rooted in economic experiments, holds that
pates in civic activities (viewed as manifes-                   people cooperate even in one-shot encounters,
tations of a high tendency to cooperate) are                    such as the dictator game or the ultimatum
also the regions in which local governments                     game (Colin Camerer and Richard Thaler,
exhibit higher objective measures of perfor-                     1995). These experiments suggest that people
mance, such as the delivery of public goods.                    expect certain fair or cooperative behavior of
Fukuyama (1995) argues further that high                        their opponents even when they do not expect
trust among citizens accounts for the supe-                     to see them again. Both of these views sug-
rior performance of all institutions in a so-                   gest that higher trustbetween people in a pop-
ciety, including firms.                                         ulation should be associated with greater
   In this paper, we provide an overview of the                 cooperation.
existing theory of trust, develop some of its                      These views of trust share an importantim-
implications, and test them on a cross section                  plication, namely, that trust should be more
of countries. We find a striking confirmation                   essential for ensuring cooperation between
of the theory in the data. We also ask: what                    strangers,or people who encounter each other
are the forces that encourage the formation of                  infrequently, than for supporting cooperation
trust? According to Putnam (1993), hierar-                      among people who interact frequently and re-
chical religion discourages "horizontal" ties                   peatedly. In the latter situations, such as fam-
between people and hence the formation of                       ilies or partnerships, reputations and ample
trust. Indeed, we find a strong negative asso-                  opportunities for future punishment would
                                                                support cooperation even with low levels of
                                                                trust. This implies that trust is most needed to
                                                                support cooperation in large organizations,
   * La Porta,Lopez-de-Silanes, and                             where members interact with each other only
                                    Shleifer:Department
of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA                 infrequently because they are only rarely in-
02138; Vishny: GraduateSchool of Business, University           volved in joint production.Take, for example,
of Chicago, 1101 East 59th St., Chicago, IL 60637. We           administrative interactions between members
are grateful to Olivier Blanchard,Edward Glaeser, Henry
Hansmann, Larry Katz, and Richard Thaler for helpful            of different departmentsin a university, or in-
comments and to Andrew Prihodko and Magdalena                   teragency task forces in the government. Here
Lopez-Morton for research assistance.                           cooperation is less sustainable without trust
                                                          333
because interactions are too few to allow rep-               people answering yes is our measure of trust
utations to develop.                                         within a country (see also Stephen Knack and
   One such large organization is the govern-                Philip Keefer, 1996). The correlation across
ment, where bureaucrats must cooperate                       countries between trust in the 1980's and in
with a large number of other bureaucrats                     the 1990's is 0.91, so we use the later, more
whom they encounter only infrequently, as                    complete, data. The highest-trustcountries are
well as with private citizens they may never                 in Scandinavia, where almost two-thirdsof the
see again, to produce "public goods." Sig-                   respondents believe that strangers can be
nificant trust is then needed to ensure coop-                trusted;many of the lowest-trust countries are
eration. Local governments in Italy might                    in Latin America.
perform better in high-trust regions because                    Here we briefly summarize our variables;
trust enables individual bureaucrats to co-                  Table 1 provides details. For government ef-
operate better with each other and with pri-                 fectiveness we use (subjective) estimates from
vate citizens, making government more                        investor surveys of the efficiency of the judi-
effective.                                                   cial system, corruption, bureaucraticquality,
   Civic groups or associations, where par-                  and tax compliance (a proxy for effectiveness
ticipation is largely voluntary and success                  of the tax authorities). For civic participation
depends on many people cooperating, may                      we use the extent of participationin civic ac-
also rely on trust for their success. Putnam                 tivities and in professional associations. To
(1993) actually measures social capital by                   measure the relative success of large firms, we
participation in civic groups and associa-                   use total sales of the largest 20 publicly traded
tions, even though participation must itself                 firms (by sales) in a country relative to its
be a consequence of some underlying beliefs                  GNP. Some of our measures of social success
about the behavior of other people in the                    proxy for the effectiveness of government
society.                                                     only; others reflect the success of other insti-
   Finally, corporations are also large organ-               tutions in the society as well. We look at ed-
izations that would benefit from trust among                 ucation (high-school graduatesrelative to the
their employees. Fukuyama (1995) stresses                    relevant population and educational adequacy
the need for cooperation between strangers                   as estimated by a business group), health (log-
for the success of large firms, and the de-                  arithmof infant mortality rate), infrastructure
pendence of such cooperation on trust. He                    (an estimate of its quality by one business
contrasts large public firms in high-trust                   group and an estimate of its adequacy by an-
countries to smaller family firms that prevail               other), and two general measures of social
in low-trust societies.                                      success: per capita GDP growth between 1970
                                                             and 1993 and (the logarithmof) inflation over
                  II. Evidence                               the same period. Our goal is to establish the
                                                             robustness of the results through the use of
   We test the hypotheses developed above on                 multiple variables and data sources; we have
a cross section of countries. We are interested              looked at many other variables as well, with
in the effect of trust on the performance of                 similar results.
large organizations,measuredhere by govern-                     Table 2 presents the regressions of our mea-
ment effectiveness, participation in civic or-               sures of performanceof large organizationson
ganizations, size of the largest firmsrelative to            trust, controlling for the log of 1994 per capita
GNP, and the performance of a society more                   GNP. In most regressions, we have fewer than
generally. Our measure of trust comes from                   40 observations because we do not have de-
the World Values Survey, which in the early                  pendent variables for socialist countries. Con-
1980's and again in the early 1990's surveyed                trolling for per capita GNP reduces the effect
1,000 randomly selected people in each of 40                 of trust,since trustis higher in richercountries.
countries. One of the questions was: "Gener-                 This may cause the effect of trust to be under-
ally speaking, would you say that most people                estimated if trust is an input in the production
can be trusted or that you can't be too careful              of wealth. In other (unreported) specifications,
in dealing with people?" The percentage of                   we also control for inequality without much
Variable                                    Definition                           GDP growth          Average annual growth in per capita GDP for the
                                                                                                       period 1970-1993. Source: WDR95.
Trust in people     Percentage of respondentswho answered that most              Log GNP per         Logarithmof the GNP per capita expressed in dollars
                      people can be trustedwhen asked: "Generally                  capita              of 1994 unless otherwise noted. Source: World
                      speaking, would you say that most people can be                                  DevelopmnentReport 1996.
                      trustedor that you can't be too careful in dealing         Trust in family     Rating based on respondents' answers to how much
                      with people?" Source: World Values Survey 1990-                                  they trust their families. Scale from 0 to 4. The
                      93 (WVS).                                                                        highest (lowest) rating is awardedwhen respondents
Efficiency of the   Assessment of the "efficiency and integrity of the legal                           manifest that they trust (distrust) their families.
  judiciary           environment as it affects business, particularly                                 Source: WVS.
                      foreign firms." Average between 1980 and 1983.             Hierarchical        Percentage of the population of each country that are
                      Scale from 0 to 10, with lower scores indicating             religion            Roman Catholic, Eastem Orthodox, or Muslim.
                      lower efficiency levels. Source: Business                                        Sources: WorldmarkEncyclopedia of the Nations
                      International Corporation ( 1984).                                               1995, Statistical Abstract of the World 1994.
Corruption          Low ratings if "high government officials are likely to      Ethnolinguistic     Probabilitythat two randomly selected persons from a
                      demand special payments and illegal payments are             fractionalization   given country will not belong to the same
                      generally expected throughoutlower levels of                                     ethnolinguistic group in 1960. Source: World
                      government in the form of bribes connected with                                  Handbook of Political and Social Indicators.
                      import and export licenses, exchange controls, tax
                      assessment, policy protection, or loans." Scale from
                      0 to 10. Average of the months of April and October
                      of the monthly index between 1982 and 1995.
                      Source: InternationalCountryRisk Guide (ICRG).
Bureaucratic        High scores indicate "autonomy from political
  quality             pressure" and "strength and expertise to govern            effect. We interpret the coefficients using a
                      without drastic changes in policy or interruptionsin
                      government services." Scale from 0 to 10, with             one-standard-deviationchange in trust, about
                      higher scores for greaterefficiency. Average of the        15 percentage points.
                      months of April and October of the monthly index
                      between 1982 and 1995. Source: ICRG.                          The effects of trust on performanceare both
Tax compliance      Assessment of the level of tax compliance. Scale from
                      0 to 6, where higher scores indicate higher
                                                                                 statistically significant and quantitatively
                      compliance. Source: The Global Competitiveniess            large. Holding per capita GNP constant, a
                      Report 1996 (GCR).
Civic participation Percentageof civic activities in which an average
                                                                                 standard-deviationincrease in trust raises ju-
                      individual participates.The activities included are:       dicial efficiency by 0.7, the anticorruption
                      (i) social-welfare services for elderly and deprived,
                      (ii) education, art, and culturalactivities, (iii) local   score by 0.3, bureaucraticquality by 0.3, and
                      community affairs, (iv) conservation, environment,         tax compliance by 0.3 of a standarddeviation.
                      ecology, (v) work with youth, (vi) sports or
                      recreation,and (vii) voluntaryassociations for             Putnam's (1993) results for Italy appear to
Participationin
                      health. Source: WVS.
                    Percentage of respondentswho answered positively
                                                                                 be confirmed worldwide. Furthermore, a
  professional        when asked if they belonged to professional                standard-deviationincrease in trustraises par-
   associations       associations. Source: WVS.
Sales' top 20/      The ratio of sales generated by the top 20 publicly
                                                                                 ticipation in civic activities by 0.7 and
  GNP                 traded firms to GNP for 1994. Firms within a               participation in professional associations by
                      country are ranked by sales. Source: WorldScope
                      Global 1996 data base.                                     one standarddeviation. The effect of trust on
Infrastructure      Assessment of the "facilities for and ease of                large firms' share of the economy is also large:
  quality             communication between headquartersand the
                      operation, and within the country," as well as the         a one-standard-deviation increase in trust
                      quality of the transportation.Average data for the
                      years 1972-1995. Scale from 0 to 10 with higher
                                                                                 raises that share by 7 percentagepoints, or half
                      scores for superiorquality. Source: BERI's                 of a standarddeviation. These results support
                      Operations Risk Index.
Adequacy   of       Average   of five scores measuring the extent to which a
                                                                                 Fukuyama's (1995) argumentthat trust facil-
   infrastructure     country's infrastructuremeets business needs in each       itates all large-scale activities, not just those of
                      of the following areas: (i) roads, (ii) air transport,
                      (iii) ports, (iv) telecommunications, and (v) power        the government.
                      supply. Scale from 0 to 6, where higher score'sare            Indeed, Fukuyama goes further and argues
                      for a superior infrastructure.Source: GCR.
Log infant          Logarithmof the number of deaths of infants under            that, for firms in particular,trust replaces an-
   mortality          one year of age per one thousand live births for           other mechanism of cooperation-the family.
                       1993 or the most recent year available. Source:
                      Health-For-All Global Indicators Database.                 He believes that family strengthis detrimental
Completed high      Percentageof the 1985 male population aged 25 and
   school             over that has completed high school. Source: Robert
                                                                                 to the growth of firms. We can actually test
                       Barroand Jong-Wha Lee ( 1994).                            this hypothesis since the World Values Survey
Adequacy of         Assessment of the extent to which the educational
   educational        system meets the needs of a competitive economy.           asks respondents if they trust their families.
   system             Score from 0 to 6, where higher scores are for a           When we run the relative share of the top 20
                      superioreducational system. Source: GCR.
Log inflation       Logarithmof the geometric average annual growth rate         firms on both a measure of trust in strangers
                      of the implicit price deflatorfor the time period
                       1970-1993. Source: WorldDevelopment Report
                                                                                 and a measure of trustin family, the coefficient
                       1995 (WDR95).                                             on trust in people is 0.654 (t = 4.1), and the
      TABLE 2-TRUST           IN PEOPLE AND PERFORMANCE                         and school adequacy by one-third of a stan-
                                                                                dard deviation. Trust is also associated with
                                        Independentvariables
                                                                                lower inflation and weakly associated with a
                          Log GNP        Trust in                  Adjusted
Dependent variable        per capita     people        Intercept    R2 [NJ
                                                                                higher per capita GNP growth (about 0.3 per-
GovernmentEfficiency
                                                                                cent per annumper standarddeviation increase
                                                                                in trust). This result for growth was also ob-
  Efficiency of the        0.2959        8.2093**       2.2769      0.6343
    judiciary             (0.2213)      (1.3652)       (1.7766)      [271       tained by Knack and Keefer (1996). In sum,
  Corruption               0.9214**
                          (0.1022)
                                         4.8068**
                                        (0.7509)
                                                      -2.3608**
                                                       (0.9050)
                                                                    0.7316      trust enhances economic performance across
                                                                      [331
  Bureaucraticquality      1.1596**      3.9797**     -4.0842*      0.6806      countries.
                          (0.1927)      (1 .3544)      (1.6763)       [33]
  Tax compliance           0.3595**      1.7330**     -0.9124       0.3540
                          (0.0913)      (0.5840)       (0.7873)      [32]             III. WhereDoes TrustComeFrom?
Participation
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