Climate Change Theme

Important Quotations:
1. “There is one issue that will define the contours of this century more dramatically than
any other, and that is the urgent threat of changing climate.” Barack Obama

2. “By polluting the oceans, not mitigating CO2 emissions and destroying our
biodiversity,we are killing our planet. Let us faceit, there is not planet B.” Emmanuel
Macron
3. “We are the first generation to feel the impacts of climate Change and the last generation
who can do something about it.” Barack Obama
4. “Climate Change is a terrible problem and it absolutely needs to be solved. It deserves to
be a huge priority.” Bill Gates
5. “Earth is a fine place and worth fighting for.” Earnest Hemingway
6. “The climate emergency is a race we are losing, but it is a race we can win”. Antonio
Guterres
7. “Let me be absolutely clear. We will not overcome climate Change. We will not save our
planet. If China and the US do not work together on Climate.” Bilawal Bhutto FM of
Pakistan
8. We have a lot of ideas, but as someone said, ‘ideas without funding is mere
hallucination,’” said Imran Khan, prime minister of Pakistan.

Climate Crisis- A Race We Can Win: Antonia Guterres

Climate change is the defining crisis of our time and it is happening even more quickly than we
feared. But we are far from powerless in the face of this global threat. As Secretary-General
António Guterres pointed out in September, “the climate emergency is a race we are losing,
but it is a race we can win”. No corner of the globe is immune from the devastating
consequences of climate change. Rising temperatures are fueling environmental degradation,
natural disasters, weather extremes, food and water insecurity, economic disruption, conflict,
and terrorism. Sea levels are rising, the Arctic is melting, coral reefs are dying, oceans are
acidifying, and forests are burning. It is clear that business as usual is not good enough. As the
infinite cost of climate change reaches irreversible highs, now is the time for bold collective
action.

“Let me be absolutely clear. We will not overcome climate change. We will not save our
planet. If China and the US do not work together on climate,” said Mr Bhutto-Zardari in his
address at a Washington think-tank, Woodrow Wilson Centre.

A Scenario if we limit green house gases emissions:

Imagine it is 2030, and a chilly November morning. You step out of your house and are
welcomed by a clear sky and not a pervasive smog, a common occurrence not so long ago that
required you to mask up and forced schools to close down.

You start the car and the engine revs up noiselessly and without fumes — you recently replaced
the older petrol version with an electric vehicle. Many people you know have made a similar
switch as it has become easier to purchase electric vehicles and charging stations are now
within easy access.

Shifting to a solar home system reduced monthly electricity bills and generated savings allowed
you to invest in the electric vehicle. The image of a dense tree-lined street, with the green
contrasting magnificently against the blue sky, reflects on your rear mirror as you reverse the car
and head to work.

This can be Lahore in 2030 if the government realises its vision of drastically reducing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under the climate action plan, the Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs).

Defining the Phenomenon Climate Change (United Nations Climate Action)

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts
may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human
activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like
coal, oil and gas.

Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions that act like a blanket wrapped around
the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.

Examples of greenhouse gas emissions that are causing climate change include carbon dioxide
and methane. These come from using gasoline for driving a car or coal for heating a building,
for example. Clearing land and forests can also release carbon dioxide. Landfills for garbage
are a major source of methane emissions. Energy, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture and
land use are among the main emitters.
Manifestations:The consequences of climate change now include, among others, intense
droughts, water scarcity, severe fires, rising sea levels, flooding, melting polar ice, catastrophic
storms and declining biodiversity.

Impacts:Climate change can affect our health, ability to grow food, housing, safety and work.
Some of us are already more vulnerable to climate impacts, such as people living in small island
nations and other developing countries. Conditions like sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion
have advanced to the point where whole communities have had to relocate, and protracted
droughts are putting people at risk of famine. In the future, the number of “climate refugees” is
expected to rise.

Solutions: Three broad categories of action are: cutting emissions, adapting to climate impacts
and financing required adjustments. Switching energy systems from fossil fuels to renewables
like solar or wind will reduce the emissions driving climate change. But we have to start right
now. While a growing coalition of countries is committing to net zero emissions by 2050, about
half of emissions cuts must be in place by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5°C. Fossil fuel
production must decline by roughly 6 per cent per year between 2020 and 2030.

Keys agreements on Climate Change:

Montreal protocol: Montreal Protocol, 1987. Though not intended to tackle climate change, the
Montreal Protocol was a historic environmental accord that became a model for future
diplomacy on the issue. Every country in the world eventually ratified the treaty, which required
them to stop producing substances that damage the ozone layer, such as chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs). The protocol has succeeded in eliminating nearly 99 percent of these ozone-depleting
substances. In 2016, parties agreed via the Kigali Amendment to also reduce their production of
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), powerful greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005, was the
first legally binding climate treaty. It required developed countries to reduce emissions by an
average of 5 percent below 1990 levels, and established a system to monitor countries’
progress. But the treaty did not compel developing countries, including major carbon emitters
China and India, to take action. The United States signed the agreement in 1998 but never
ratified it and later withdrew its signature.
The protocol’s first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. 36 countries had
participated in the first commitment period. 9 countries opted for flexibility mechanisms since
their national emissions were greater than their targets. Hence these countries funded
emissions reductions in other countries.
Although the 36 developed countries had reduced their emissions, global emissions increased
by 32 % from 1990 to 2010. The financial crisis of 2007-08 was one of the major contributors to
the reduction in emissions.

After the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ended, an amendment i.e. changes was
carried out to the Kyoto Protocol. This amendment talks about emission reduction targets for the
second commitment period. The 2nd commitment period ranges from 2012-2020.

Paris Climate Agreement 2015: The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty
on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015
and entered into force on 4 November 2016.

Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared
to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach
global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral
world by mid-century.

Finance
The Paris Agreement reaffirms that developed countries should take the lead in providing
financial assistance to countries that are less endowed and more vulnerable, while for the first
time also encouraging voluntary contributions by other Parties. Climate finance is needed for
mitigation, because large-scale investments are required to significantly reduce emissions.
Climate finance is equally important for adaptation, as significant financial resources are needed
to adapt to the adverse effects and reduce the impacts of a changing climate

Technology
The Paris Agreement speaks of the vision of fully realizing technology development and transfer
for both improving resilience to climate change and reducing GHG emissions. It establishes a
technology framework to provide overarching guidance to the well-functioning Technology
Mechanism. The mechanism is accelerating technology development and transfer through it’s
policy and implementation arms.

Capacity-Building
Not all developing countries have sufficient capacities to deal with many of the challenges
brought by climate change. As a result, the Paris Agreement places great emphasis on
climate-related capacity-building for developing countries and requests all developed countries
to enhance support for capacity-building actions in developing countries.

Top GreenHouse Gas Emitters Since 1990:

Manifestations of the Climate Change
Global Temperatures are Rising:
● As greenhouse gas concentrations rise, so does the global surface temperature. The last
decade, 2011-2020, is the warmest on record. Since the 1980s, each decade has been
warmer than the previous one. Nearly all land areas are seeing more hot days and heat
waves. Higher temperatures increase heat-related illnesses and make working outdoors
more difficult. Wildfires start more easily and spread more rapidly when conditions are
hotter. Temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at least twice as fast as the global
average.
● The last four years were the four hottest on record. According to a September 2019
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, we are at least one degree Celsius
above preindustrial levels and close to what scientists warn would be “an unacceptable
risk”.
● The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change calls for holding eventual warming “well
below” two degrees Celsius, and for the pursuit of efforts to limit the increase even
further, to 1.5 degrees. But if we don’t slow global emissions, temperatures could rise to
above three degrees Celsius by 2100, causing further irreversible damage to our
ecosystems. According to IPCC, global mean sea level has risen about 8-9 inches since
the beginning of industrial revolution.
● Moreover IPCC says we can expect the oceans to rise between 10 to 30 inches by 2100
with temperature warming 1.5 degree celsius. At 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) and 5
degrees C (9 degrees F), respectively, projections suggest an eventual near-complete
loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (which holds enough ice to raise sea levels by 7.2
meters or 23.6 feet) and complete loss of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (which holds ice
equivalent to 3.3 meters or 10.8 feet of sea level rise).
More Severe Storms:
● Destructive storms have become more intense and more frequent in many
regions. As temperatures rise, more moisture evaporates, which exacerbates
extreme rainfall and flooding, causing more destructive storms. The frequency
and extent of tropical storms is also affected by the warming ocean. Cyclones,
hurricanes, and typhoons feed on warm waters at the ocean surface. Such
storms often destroy homes and communities, causing deaths and huge
economic losses.
● There were 21 named storms in the Atlantic during the 2021 season, exhausting the
seasonal naming list for tropical systems for only the third time in its 68-year history.
Hundreds of thousands of people were at least temporarily displaced by the storms,
which left coastal communities largely uninhabitable and caused immense damage
across the Gulf Coast, leaving much of the area without electricity or other basic
resources for weeks.

Increased Droughts:Climate change is changing water availability, making it scarcer in more

regions. Global warming exacerbates water shortages in already water-stressed regions and is
leading to an increased risk of agricultural droughts affecting crops, and ecological droughts
increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems. Droughts can also stir destructive sand and dust
storms that can move billions of tons of sand across continents. Deserts are expanding,
reducing land for growing food. Many people now face the threat of not having enough water on
a regular basis

Melting Glaciers and Rising Sea Levels: Glaciers and ice sheets in polar and mountain regions
are already melting faster than ever, causing sea levels to rise. The ocean soaks up most of the
heat from global warming. The rate at which the ocean is warming strongly increased over the
past two decades, across all depths of the ocean. As the ocean warms, its volume increases
since water expands as it gets warmer. Melting ice sheets also cause sea levels to rise,
threatening coastal and island communities. In addition, the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide,
keeping it from the atmosphere. But more carbon dioxide makes the ocean more acidic, which
endangers marine life and coral reefs.
● Almost two-thirds of the world’s cities with populations of over five million are located in
areas at risk of sea level rise and almost 40 per cent of the world’s population live within
100 km of a coast. If no action is taken entire districts of New York, Shanghai, Abu
Dhabi, Osaka, Rio de Janeiro, and many other cities could find themselves underwater
within our lifetimes, displacing millions of people.
● The Maldives is one of the more vulnerable Saarc members. It could literally disappear
under the rising waters of the Indian Ocean if global warming is not reined in very
urgently. Similarly, low lying deltas like Bangladesh would also face an existential threat
due to climate Change. Melting of this level will redefine coastlines everywhere. It will
 become an existential challenge for island states and low lying deltas like Bangladesh.
Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in
1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 8 feet by 2100. This is the result of added water
from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms.

Food and Water Insecurity: Changes in the climate and increases in extreme weather events
are among the reasons behind a global rise in hunger and poor nutrition. Fisheries, crops, and
livestock may be destroyed or become less productive. With the ocean becoming more acidic,
marine resources that feed billions of people are at risk. Changes in snow and ice cover in many
Arctic regions have disrupted food supplies from herding, hunting, and fishing. Heat stress can
diminish water and grasslands for grazing, causing declining crop yields and affecting livestock.
Global warming impacts everyone’s food and water security. Climate change is a direct cause of
soil degradation, which limits the amount of carbon the earth is able to contain. Some 500
million people today live in areas affected by erosion, while up to 30 per cent of food is lost or
wasted as a result. Meanwhile, climate change limits the availability and quality of water for
drinking and agriculture. In many regions, crops that have thrived for centuries are struggling to
survive, making food security more precarious. Such impacts tend to fall primarily on the poor
and vulnerable. Global warming is likely to make economic output between the world’s richest
and poorest countries grow wider.

New Extremes
Disasters linked to climate and weather extremes have always been part of our Earth’s system.
But they are becoming more frequent and intense as the world warms. No continent is left
untouched, with heatwaves, droughts, typhoons, and hurricanes causing mass destruction
around the world. 90 per cent of disasters are now classed as weather- and climate-related,
costing the world economy 520 billion USD each year, while 26 million people are pushed into
poverty as a result.

Frequent Wildfires: Wildfires in Australia in July 2020. It is estimated that nearly 3 billion
animals were affected by these wildfires. A total of 270 wildfires have started across 53
provinces in turkey. Similarly Europe also observed these wild fires from Turkey to Spain.
According to Turkish president Recap Tayyab Erdogan, 175000 acres of forests have been
burnt out this year.Wildfires in Margalla hills Islamabad bear testimony to the fact that global
warming is an apocalypse.

Loss of biodiversity: When it comes to land biodiversity, global warming is the biggest enemy
of the polar regions. Fauna like polar bears, penguins, puffins, and other Arctic creatures will
face a constant threat of losing their habitat through the diminishment of ice caps. In the Arctic,
shorter periods of sea ice coverage endanger the polar bear’s habitat and existence by giving
them less time to hunt.
Warmer temperatures in the Pacific regions could reduce the number of male sea turtle
offspring and threaten turtle populations. The sex of sea turtle hatchlings is dependent on
temperature, with warmer temperatures increasing the number of female sea turtles.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef could lose up to 95% of its living coral by 2050 due to changes in
ocean temperature and chemistry

Health Issues:
Climate change is a leading health threat in a multitude of ways in the 21st century. It is not
passive but an active threat to human existence.

According to WHO, about 23% (12.6 million) of global deaths are related to the environment.

High temperatures resulting from global warming increase the mosquito population that is
responsible for vector-borne illnesses such as Malaria.

Similarly, extreme weather conditions are also likely to aggravate anxiety and depression as
we experience growing instances of financial and food security.

Likewise, release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can lead to staple crops becoming
deficient in nutrients.

A Catalyst for Conflict:

Climate change is a major threat to international peace and security. The effects of climate
change heighten competition for resources such as land, food, and water, fueling
socioeconomic tensions and, increasingly often, leading to mass displacement. Climate is a risk
multiplier that makes worse already existing challenges. Droughts in Africa and Latin America
directly feed into political unrest and violence. The World Bank estimates that, in the absence of
action, more than 140 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia will
be forced to migrate within their regions by 2050.

Poverty and Displacement: Climate change increases the factors that put and keep people in
poverty. Floods may sweep away urban slums, destroying homes and livelihoods. Heat can
make it difficult to work in outdoor jobs. Water scarcity may affect crops. Over the past decade
(2010–2019), weather-related events displaced an estimated 23.1 million people on average
each year, leaving many more vulnerable to poverty. Most refugees come from countries that
are most vulnerable and least ready to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Causes of Climate Change:

Natural Causes:

Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and Rotation: Changes in the earth’s orbit and its axis of
rotation have had a big impact on climate in the past. For example, the amount of
summer sunshine on the Northern Hemisphere, which is affected by changes in the
planet’s orbit, appears to be the primary cause of past cycles of ice ages, in which
the earth has experienced long periods of cold temperatures (ice ages), as well as
shorter interglacial periods (periods between ice ages) of relatively warmer
temperatures. At the coldest part of the last glacial period (or ice age), the average
global temperature was about 11°F colder than it is today. At the peak of the last
interglacial period, however, the average global temperature was at most 2°F
warmer than it is today.

Variations in Solar Activity: Changes in the sun’s energy output can affect the
intensity of the sunlight that reaches the earth’s surface. While these changes can
influence the earth’s climate, solar variations have played little role in the climate
changes observed in recent decades. Satellites have been measuring the amount of
energy the earth receives from the sun since 1978. These measurements show no
net increase in the sun’s output, even as global surface temperatures have risen.

Changes in the Earth’s Reflectivity: The amount of sunlight that is absorbed or reflected by
the planet depends on the earth’s surface and atmosphere. Dark objects and surfaces, like the
ocean, forests, and soil, tend to absorb more sunlight. Light-colored objects and surfaces, like
snow and clouds, tend to reflect sunlight. About 70 percent of the sunlight that reaches the earth
is absorbed. Natural changes in the earth’s surface, like the melting of sea ice, have contributed
to climate change in the past, often acting as feedbacks to other processes.
Volcanic Activity: Volcanoes have played a noticeable role in climate, and volcanic eruptions
released large quantities of carbon dioxide in the distant past. Some explosive volcano
eruptions can throw particles (e.g., SO2) into the upper atmosphere, where they can reflect
enough sunlight back to space to cool the surface of the planet for several years. These
particles are an example of cooling aerosols. Volcanic particles from a single eruption do not
produce long-term climate change because they remain in the atmosphere for a much shorter
time than greenhouse gases. In addition, human activities emit more than 100 times as much
carbon dioxide as volcanoes each year.

Changes in Naturally Occurring Carbon Dioxide Concentrations: Over the last several
hundred thousand years, carbon dioxide levels varied in tandem with the glacial cycles. During
warm interglacial periods, carbon dioxide levels were higher. During cool glacial periods, carbon
dioxide levels were lower.The heating or cooling of the earth’s surface and oceans can cause
changes in the natural sources and sinks of these gases, and thus change greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere. These changing concentrations have acted as a positive
climate feedback, amplifying the temperature changes caused by long-term shifts in the earth’s
orbit.

Excessive Use of Fossil Fuels in producing energy:

Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Change

Deforestation: Forests still cover about 30 percent of the world’s land area, but they are
disappearing at an alarming rate. Between 1990 and 2016, the world lost 502,000 square miles
(1.3 million square kilometers) of forest, according to the World Bank—an area larger than
South Africa. Since humans started cutting down forests, 46 percent of trees have been felled,
according to a 2015 study in the journal Nature. About 17 percent of the Amazonian rainforest
has been destroyed over the past 50 years, and losses recently have been on the rise.

Excessive Use of Fossil Fuel: Burning coal, oil and gas produces carbon dioxide and nitrous
oxide.

Increasing livestock farming: Cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane when they
digest their food.

Foul Agricultural Practices: Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions.

Use of Flourinated Gases: Fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that
use these gases. Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23 000 times greater
than CO2.

Way Forward:

1. Reforming Energy Sector: Moreover, the report also advises Pakistan to reform its
energy sector where carbon emissions are predicted to increase by at least 380pc
between 2015 and 2030.
2. Switching to Renewable Energy Resources: energy systems from fossil fuels to
renewables like solar will reduce the emissions driving climate change.
3. Adapting to climate consequences: Adapting to Climate Consequences protects
people, homes, businesses, livelihoods, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. It covers
current impacts and those likely in the future. Adaptation will be required everywhere, but
must be prioritized now for the most vulnerable people with the fewest resources to cope
with climate hazards. The rate of return can be high. Early warning systems for
 disasters, for instance, save lives and property, and can deliver benefits up to 10 times
the initial cost.
4. Increasing green cover is critical: Pakistan happens to be among the countries having
the least tree cover. Pakistan's forest cover is now among the lowest in the world – about
5% of the land, compared with a global average of 31%, according to the UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization. Every year thousands of hectares of forest is destroyed,
making way for various human activities. In areas where the forest remains, its richness
and health is declining. The country badly needs tree and green cover and it can be
possible only if the entire nation realises the importance of trees and participates in
campaigns, increasing overall forest cover in the country. The importance of trees and
the green cover needs to be explained to the people at the household level across the
country.

While science tells us that climate change is irrefutable, it also tells us that it is not too late to
stem the tide. This will require fundamental transformations in all aspects of society — how we
grow food, use land, transport goods, and power our economies.

While technology has contributed to climate change, new and efficient technologies can help
us reduce net emissions and create a cleaner world. Readily-available technological solutions
already exist for more than 70 per cent of today’s emissions. In many places renewable
energy is now the cheapest energy source and electric cars are poised to become
mainstream.
In the meantime, nature-based solutions provide ‘breathing room’ while we tackle the
decarbonization of our economy. These solutions allow us to mitigate a portion of our carbon
footprint while also supporting vital ecosystem services, biodiversity, access to fresh water,
improved livelihoods, healthy diets, and food security.

Nature-based solutions include improved agricultural practices, land restoration,

conservation, and the greening of food supply chains. Scalable new technologies and
nature-based solutions will enable us all to leapfrog to a cleaner, more resilient world.

If governments, businesses, civil society, youth, and academia work together, we can
create a green future where suffering is diminished, justice is upheld, and harmony is restored
between people and planet

Climate Change and its impacts in South Asia.

1. Rising Sea Levels: The Maldives is one of the more vulnerable Saarc members. It
could literally disappear under the rising waters of the Indian Ocean if global warming is
not reined in very urgently. Similarly, low lying deltas like Bangladesh would also face an
existential threat due to climate Change. Melting of this level will redefine coastlines
 everywhere. It will become an existential challenge for island states and low lying deltas
like Bangladesh. Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record
keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 8 feet by 2100. This is the
result of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms.
2. Melting Glaciers: Climatic variability, several studies say, is inevitably “greater in the
Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH) mountainous region of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan, than in other parts of the world. Glaciers
are one of the most important indicators of climate change, and the HKH region is host
to some of the world’s largest glaciers, which are the major water source of the Indus,
Brahmaputra.
3. Rising Temperatures: In a 2014 report, the Asian Development Bank underscored the
impact of climate change in South Asia. It said a “warming trend of about 0.75°C has
been observed in annual mean temperatures in South Asia over the past century. The
temperature is apparently set to increase in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region by 1.7
degrees Centigrade to 6.3°C by the end of this century.
4. Conflict over depleting resources: a water crisis can trigger a bitter political row
between regions within national boundaries as it does between sovereign neighbours.
Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in India, or Sindh and Punjab in Pakistan are excellent
examples of how things could go seriously wrong politically and socially within domestic
boundaries if climate change is not addressed on a war footing.
5. Economic Losses owing to Climate Change: Asian development bank and world
bank have estimated that Pakistan is facing up to 3.8 Billion dollars in annual economic
loss due to climate change. Moreover, Pakistan is the 5th most vulnerable country to
climate change.
6. Decrease in Quality of Life: South Asia Climate Change Action Plan 2021-25 states
that the quality of life in Pakistan is set to decline by 4pc to 5pc by 2030. This is mainly
due to our increased vulnerability to natural disasters that are a consequence of global
warming. The report estimates that since 2010 droughts, floods, cyclones and
earthquakes have cost the country more than $14bn, ending up reversing development
gains of the past 15 years. It is stated that 49m people reside in high-risk areas where
their health and well-being are directly affected by water scarcity, disease outbreak and
water and food insecurity.

Solutions:
5. Reforming Energy Sector: Moreover, the report also advises Pakistan to reform its
energy sector where carbon emissions are predicted to increase by at least 380pc
between 2015 and 2030.
6. Switching to Renewable Energy Resources: energy systems from fossil fuels to
renewables like solar will reduce the emissions driving climate change.
7. Adapting to climate consequences: Adapting to Climate Consequences protects
people, homes, businesses, livelihoods, infrastructure and natural ecosystems. It covers
current impacts and those likely in the future. Adaptation will be required everywhere, but
must be prioritized now for the most vulnerable people with the fewest resources to cope
with climate hazards. The rate of return can be high. Early warning systems for
 disasters, for instance, save lives and property, and can deliver benefits up to 10 times
the initial cost.
8. Increasing green cover is critical: Pakistan happens to be among the countries having
the least tree cover. Pakistan's forest cover is now among the lowest in the world – about
5% of the land, compared with a global average of 31%, according to the UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization. Every year thousands of hectares of forest is destroyed,
making way for various human activities. In areas where the forest remains, its richness
and health is declining. The country badly needs tree and green cover and it can be
possible only if the entire nation realises the importance of trees and participates in
campaigns, increasing overall forest cover in the country. The importance of trees and
the green cover needs to be explained to the people at the household level across the
country.
Climate Change and its implications for Pakistan

Climate Catastrophe/ Floods in Pakistan

From the heights of the Himalayas to the shores of the Arabian Sea, floods
triggered by heavy rainfall continue to wreak havoc, destroying livelihoods and
sweeping away entire settlements, leaving death and misery in their wake.

Climate change is no longer an abstract doomsayer’s warning: the climate has changed, and
it has caught us completely unprepared. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has said
as much in reference to the 385pc higher rainfall in Sindh and 371pc higher rainfall in
Balochistan so far this summer. The unseasonably high rainfall had been preceded by
back-to-back heatwaves in the two provinces, which created the conditions necessary for the
disaster that later unfolded. There are strong fears that these extreme weather patterns may
become the ‘new normal’ for Pakistan.

Every day seems to add to the death toll from this year’s rains, with Balochistan seemingly
the worst-affected province.

1. Rise in temperature: The duration of summer has prolonged in Pakistan with temperatures
exceeding 50 degree Celsius during June 2020. Karachi faced heatwaves in 2015.

2. Rise in Sea Level: Pakistan has experienced a rise in sea level at a rate of about 1.1 mm per
year—higher than global mean. Studies indicate that a sea level rise of about 2 mm may
submerge about 7500 sq km of Indus Delta.

3. Floods: owing to heavy rains falling in northern areas of Pakistan during the month of July
and August, a vast area of Pakistan was affected by flood in which approximately 2000 deaths
were recorded.

4. Decrease in crop yield: A decline of 5% has been observed in crop production in Pakistan.
Due to decreased productivity and increasing population, the world is suffering from food
shortage.

5. Threats to biodiversity: Persistent droughts in Thar have gravely endangered the livestock
of the area. About 6 million livestock are facing impacts of climate change. Mangroves, which
acts as a natural barrier between saline and fresh water, are under an existential threat.
6. Increase in epidemics: Owing to climate change, vector borne diseases like malaria and
dengue are on a rise. Moist and warm temperatures are host to mosquito breeding in hilly areas
of Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Climate Change a main cause of economic instability and food security:Climate change in
Pakistan is the cause of economic instability, food insecurity, biodiversity loss and serious health
issues, posing an existential threat that has pushed vulnerable people to hunger, unemployment
and poverty.

Dr Tahir Rasheed, regional director of World Wildlife Fund (WWF-Pakistan), said climate change
was causing biodiversity loss, habitat degradation and exacerbating freshwater issues in
Pakistan.

It is an extremely unfair equation:though Pakistan is reaponsible for only a small fraction

of a single percentage point when it comes to historical global carbon dioxide emissions,
it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change wrought by pollution.

Such vulnerabilities have been brought to fore after weeks of unnaturally heavy rainfall were
triggered by an extended spell of heatwaves.

The natural disaster pakistan is facing is not an outcome of its own policy options but a
consequence of choices made by others.

Land use concerns:Noman Ahmed

An unprecedented heat wave raged through Pakistan and the adjoining areas has directly
impacted
1. Crop and food harvest, significantly reducing crop yields.
2. The water crisis continues to create tension between Sindh and Punjab as the
authorities haven’t yet decided how to allocate scarce resources for irrigation and other
uses.
3. Forest fires across The Margallas and parts of Balochistan and KP reduced trees to
ashes including Chilgoza pines that were a source of livelihood for many in the country’s
most impoverished province.

Nature has bestowed on humanity invaluable ecological assets. Every intervention by man in
the name of progress and development has tempered them.
1. Mining
2. Clearing forests to increase farmlands.
3. Using the hinterland to expand real estate.
4. Reclaiming land for development by altering the coastline.

Sustainable measures:
1. Land management agencies such as The provincial board of revenues must map land
assets to identify their existing uses and prepare a list of priority actions accordingly.
2. Ecological assets to be conserved must be notified and communicated to the public.
3. Restricting the felling of trees and building activities would be a good step.
4. A national register of ecological assets, identifying their legal status and their area, plus
mapping their details and explaining the risk factors should be published by the
concerned authorities periodically.
COP-26 and key Undertakings:
THE 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change took place in Glasgow from Oct 31 to Nov 13, 2021. The resulting policy
document — the Glasgow Climate Pact — eroded the trust of developing countries and once
again underscored the feeling among them that developed nations are not serious about their
commitments. Following are the reason why COP-26 was a mere pomp and show

1. Representation from the developing countries was limited due to Covid vaccine inequity
and quarantine rules, prohibitive costs of travel and accommodation and lack of
transparency around the participation process.
2. Wealthy nations have already failed to meet their previous climate finance pledges which
aimed to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to enable developing nations to
transition towards sustainable development. The funding shortfall has fuelled mistrust
among nations like Pakistan that have negligible historical emissions but are
disproportionately vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change.
3. Many developing nations have made their climate pledges contingent on receiving
external support. Minister for Climate Change Malik Amin Aslam stated that this was
“conditional on getting $100 billion financing” to facilitate “a clean and just energy
transition”. Indonesia and Vietnam have committed to stopping the construction of new
coal plants and phasing out existing plants by the 2040s but are contingent on receiving
international funding to help reduce their coal dependency. Dedicated climate finance
would be used to
4. Developed countries agreed to begin reducing coal-fired power and eliminating
subsidies on other fossil fuels. However, following objections from China and India, the
wording in earlier drafts of the text to “phase out” coal was changed to “phase down”.
The biggest greenhouse gas emitters will therefore continue using coal power
domestically.
5. The US and EU have pledged to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,
China has pledged net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060, while India has pledged net-zero
carbon emissions by 2070. The varying timelines and lag in translating policy action into
law signals a lack of seriousness about the urgency of climate action. Only a few of the
74 countries with net-zero commitments have formalised them into law.
6. Most countries that pledged net-zero targets have yet to put forward their implementation
plans. Their 2030 targets do not always suggest near-term transformative actions
7. Further, several fossil fuel-dependent countries argue in favor of emerging and currently
expensive technologies to capture and permanently store carbon dioxide underground
rather than emphasizing behavior change. Japan, Saudi Arabia, China and Australia, as
well as the OPEC nations, all champion carbon capture and storage, claiming this could
dramatically cut fossil fuel emissions from power plants and industry
COP 26:
“We know what needs to be done to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts now and in
future. We have technology to succeed. But current levels of climate ambition and action are
significantly short of what is needed.”
Antonio Guterres

“We are in the fight of our lives, and this is the fight of our lives, and this must be won. Never
give up. Never retreat, keep pushing forward.”

Greta Thunberg

Key undertakings
1. The Glasgow pact is characterized by the consensus of the member countries to “phase
down” the coal instead of “phase out.” The failure to agree to the phasing out of coal
reflects the slackening of political will on the part of the developed nations that are
responsible for about 70% of the global emissions.
2. Climate finance remains a fundamental hindrance in the way of developing countries to
transition to green economies drastically cutting down their emissions. The developed
countries have failed to honor their commitment of giving 100 billion to the developing
world to help them become climate resilient. This gap of trust hits at the very root of
consensus around the climate agenda.
3. More than 141 countries pledged to end deforestation by 2030 and conserve, preserve
and restore degraded forest land.
4. Global methane pledge also came as another outcome. More than 100 countries vowed
to reduce methane production by 30% from 2020 level by 2030. Methane is more heat
trapping than co2.
5. COP 26 has made it clear that national interests, contradictions, and lack of political will
would continue to impede progress over climate negotiations.
Impacts of 2022 floods on Pakistan:
1. The situation is far more dire than it was in 2010. These floods have already impacted
more people, almost over 33 million and vast swathes of land. almost a third of the
country is inundated by floodwaters.
2. Eighty districts were declared calamity hit with 110 districts affected by the disaster.
3. Destruction of homes and infrastructure.
4. Damage to crops and fruit orchids.
5. Educational losses due to inundating floods. 18000 schools washed away.
6. A death toll exceeding 1200 including hundreds of Children.
7. Half a million people live in camps.
8. The economic cost estimated at around $10 billion.

Climate reparations to Pakistan:

Pakistan emits less than one per cent of global greenhouse gases (GHG), but is the
eighth most vulnerable country to climate change-related disasters, a vulnerability that
has been horrifyingly laid bare over the past few weeks. There is no doubt that the Global
North should compensate the Global South for the fact that high-emitting activities in developed
economies are fuelling catastrophic climate change-related events — current floods included —
in less developed countries. The most industrialised nations collectively were responsible for
90pc of excess emissions and the Global North for 92pc.

“Pakistan is a climate creditor, and the government should issue an official call for reparations
for loss and damage.”

Reparations require targeting the highest emitters. That includes the US, with whom we are
trying to repair ties, and historic allies such as the UK. China is the second-highest emitter, and
is on the threshold of exceeding CO2 emissions beyond the planetary boundary as per Hickel’s
calculations. There’s also the awkward matter that Gulf allies we turn to for bailouts draw their
wealth from fossil fuels. A strong stance on reparations would have implications on foreign
relations.

Climate justice is based on the notion of not being punished for someone else’s bad behaviour,
but it does not sanction additional bad behaviour. A Pakistan demanding reparations will also
need a clean, green vision which includes leapfrogging the high-emitting phase of economic
development into a more sustainable future. That means no more poorly planned expressways,
luxury real estate development and illegal construction. Are we ready to draw this social
contract?

Victims of Climate Change or Bad Governance:

The floods of 2022 are not just riverine floods, as was the case in the 2010 superfloods, the last
great floods to hit the country. This time, what we have witnessed are five meteorological
disasters, all happening simultaneously and coinciding in various regions of the country. These
include: unprecedented torrential rains in central Sindh and Balochistan; flash floods in southern
Punjab and lower Sindh, emanating from Balochistan’s Koh-e-Suleiman mountain range; urban
flooding, mostly in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur and other urban centres; glacial outbursts in the
upper Indus basin, resulting in downstream flooding; and cloud outbursts upstream of Nowshera
at the Kabul river, a tributary of the Indus.

This has never happened before, not at least since 1918, when meteorological data began to be
recorded.

Poverty and Climate Vulnerability:

Pakistan is regarded as one of the least prepared countries for climate disasters. Some indices
have even ranked Pakistan as one of the most vulnerable countries. Unfortunately, the country’s
two biggest challenges are intertwined — increasing poverty and increasing climate
vulnerability. Almost half of Pakistan’s population lives close to the poverty line, on less than
three or four dollars a day. Their absolute numbers are increasing as global disparities increase,
commodity prices go up, and the country’s economic growth rate fails to keep pace with the
growing population. We have also seen in countless instances that climate vulnerability and
poverty reinforce each other. The more people we have living in poverty, the more they will be
vulnerable to climate disasters. These two aspects often coincide and intersect. It is also fair to
say that not all poor are climate vulnerable nor are all rich climate secure. Yet, climate disasters
do not spare anyone, be it elite housing on ocean fronts or informal squatter settlements on the
Malir river in Karachi.

Good Governance and Climate Change:

Climate Change:

The UN secretary general’s emphasis on the impact of climate change on vulnerable countries
— with Pakistan as the case in point — and what to do about it represented a key part of his
speech.
Lashing out at the West’s fossil fuels industry for making windfall profits, he called for these
profits to be taxed and funds from them directed to afflicted countries to address losses caused
to them by the climate crisis. Guterres squarely placed the issue of justice at the centre of the
global debate on the climate crisis.
He pointed out that the G20 emits 80 per cent of all carbon emissions. On the other hand,
Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is under 1pc but it is the world’s
seventh most vulnerable country to climate change and is reeling today from its ravages. That is
why Pakistan is leading a developing country effort to establish a global fund to help states
affected by climate-induced disasters.
Whether Western countries, long sceptical about this, can be persuaded to change their mind is
unclear. But protesters across the world are now demanding climate justice, urging developed
countries to compensate poorer states for the damage climate change is inflicting on them.
What should be Pakistan’s goals on the issue of Climate Change:

(i) strengthen citizens’ ability to be more resilient to climate impacts (especially the poor),
(ii) put in place climate-integrated approaches to energy, agriculture, water and in cities,
optimising local co-benefits,
(iii) encourage continuous development of climate solutions amongst all stakeholders, including
youth, private sector, and the provinces.

Climate Justice Debate:

What is meant by climate Justice ?

Climate justice is a concept that addresses the just division, fair sharing, and equitable distribution of
the benefits and burdens of climate change and responsibilities to deal with climate change. Climate
justice examines concepts such as equality, human rights, collective rights, and the historical
responsibilities for climate change. Climate justice actions can include the growing global body of
legal action on climate change issues.

‘’Climate justice is a term used for framing global warming as an ethical and political
issue, rather than one that is purely environmental or physical in nature. This is done by
relating the effects of climate change to concepts of justice, particularly environmental
justice and social justice and by examining issues such as equality, human rights;
collective rights, and the historical responsibilities for climate.’’
(United Nations Enviornment Program)

Climate change will affect different people and places unevenly, and so is likely to lead to
inequalities within and across nations, and between current and future generations, so
creating inequalities.

Anecdote:
Every year, the average American causes 16 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.That’s about
eight times as much as the average Indian and almost 50 times as much as the average
kenyan.

Generally speaking, People in India and Kenya are experiencing climate change much more
than the average person in the United States. Since 1970, over 2 million people have died in
hurricanes, floods and other climate disasters and 91 percent of those deaths happened in
developing countries. That disparity is only going to get worse as the planet gets hotter,
because these disasters are happening more often than they were 50 years ago causing 7
times as much damage.

Here are five recommendations that are politically palatable and could make a big difference.
1. Recognise climate change victims
We need to recognise that climate change has victims and give them a day in court. The report
proposes that states adopt a “model statute on legal remedies for climate change” that can open
doors to those directly affected by climate change. This is largely a matter of clarifying
procedural rules. As a next step, the IBA has already embarked on drafting a model statute of
this kind.
2. Reinforce human rights
It has been clear for a long time that climate change harms human rights. What has been less
clear is whether courts can apply existing law and legal precedent to cover these violations.
After all, the law was developed without the enormity and urgency of climate change in view.
But, like other human rights harms, climate change has agents, victims and injuries. It does not
require much legal imagination to make the causal connection. Politicians, lawyers and the
international community can help by making the connection clear.
3. Hold corporations to account
At present, multinational corporations can escape carbon accountability in much the same way
as they have often escaped responsibility for human rights violations caused by subsidiaries
and suppliers abroad. As with human rights, what is needed is simple due diligence. The point
must be to ensure that carbon emissions are counted right along the international supply chain,
from sourcing to production to distribution to point of sale.
4. Beef up international institutions
When it comes to environmental disputes, states rarely make use of the International Court of
Justice (ICJ), the world’s principal court for international law disputes.
No climate-related actions have come to the court. There are political reasons for this, of course,
but there are also concerns about the competence of the court to manage what are often highly
technical questions.
The ICJ needs bolstering. Recent appointments to the court’s judicial panel may help. A
recently-disbanded environmental panel could be reconstituted and strengthened. Courts are at
least better than arbitration panels in these matters. But where states do choose arbitration,
especially in disputes with investors over energy or environmental policy, everything should be
fully transparent – not always the case today. The IBA also suggests making use of the
environmental expertise at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
5. Get the trade system right
We need to make sure trade rules do not penalise climate actions such as low carbon trade
policies. The same governments who have spent decades hashing out a climate agreement can
more easily send ministers to the WTO to make this happen. At present, governments wanting
to tax high-carbon imports, for example, may fear a slap from the WTO’s judicial authority. It is
an easier matter by far to issue a ministerial declaration to the effect that such measures are
lawful.
6. Bilateral and Regional Agreements in Climate
Of course, similar measures ought to be included in all bilateral and regional trade agreements,
such as the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
now under negotiation. These and any other future agreements need to be thoroughly vetted for
long-term climate impacts before they are finalised.
The IBA report has much more to say besides these recommendations and, in my view, ought
to be mandatory reading for lawyers and policymakers everywhere. It is high time we began
thinking seriously about preventing and redressing the human harm caused by climate change.
 ● Pakistan needs a bailout in the form of rapid financial and logistical assistance from the
global community.
● Efforts to formalize funding from wealthier, developed nations to poorer, developing
nations to address climate harm.
● G20 nations need to reduce national emissions yearly targets till the world achieves the
warming limit of 1.5 degrees above pre industrial levels.
● Global financial institutions to create a new mechanism for countries like Pakistan to
enable investments in climate resilience and sustainable infrastructure instead of getting
married in debt repayment.

How Pakistan can leverage International Climate Finance:

The aim is to reduce GHG emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 from the projected levels through
shifting to 60pc renewable energy and 30pc electric vehicles, banning imported coal, and
sequestering (or capturing) carbon (a common GHG) through natural resource restoration
initiatives such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) and the Protected Areas
Initiative.
It is common knowledge that Pakistan contributes minimally to global GHG emissions — 2020
emissions of CO2 accounted for less than 0.7 per cent of global emissions.

In other words, the ability to meet the 2030 commitments will hinge upon the availability of
international climate finance, ideally on a concessional (lower market rate, generous terms)
basis.

Well, Pakistan can explore two strategies.

One, it should look at cases of innovative financing instruments and apply those relevant to the
local context. Two, and more broadly, it should look to improve structural issues to make itself a
more attractive destination for international climate finance. A few examples are shared as
follows.

Climate Adaptation:

Adaptation refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to

actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. It refers to changes in processes,
practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities
associated with climate change. In simple terms, countries and communities need to develop
adaptation solution and implement action to respond to the impacts of climate change that are
already happening, as well as prepare for future impacts.
Adaptation solutions take many shapes and forms, depending on the unique context of a
community, business, organization, country or region. There is no
‘one-size-fits-all-solution’—adaptation can range from building flood defences, setting up early
warning systems for cyclones and switching to drought-resistant crops, to redesigning
communication systems, business operations and government policies. Many nations and
communities are already taking steps to build resilient societies and economies, but
considerably greater action and ambition will be needed to cost-effectively manage the risks,
both now and in the future.
Successful adaptation not only depends on governments but also on the active and sustained
engagement of stakeholders including national, regional, multilateral and international
organizations, the public and private sectors, civil society and other relevant stakeholders, as
well as effective management of knowledge. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change may
be undertaken across various regions, and sectors, and at various levels.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO):The world meteorological organisation says

that the past eight years are on track to be the warmest on record, fuelled by ever-rising
greenhouse gas concentrations and accumulated heat.
● The global average temperature in 2022 is estimated to be about 1.15 degree celsius
above the 1850-1900 average.
● The rate of sea level rise has doubled in the past 30 years. It adds up to half to one
millimeters per century. The past two and a half years alone accounts for 10 percent of
the overall rise in sea level since satellite measurements started nearly 30 years ago.
● The Greenland ice sheet lost mass for the 26th consecutive year and it rained rather
than snowed there for the first time in september.
● The ocean stores around 90pc of the accumulated heat from emissions of greenhouse
gases. The upper 2000m of the ocean continued to warm in the future- a challenge
which is irreversible.