Has China Won
Has China Won
The Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) is an independent think tank
that contributes to establishing an international agenda for Brazil. For the last twenty
three years, the institution has engaged in promoting pluralistic and proposal-
oriented debates on the international landscape and Brazilian foreign policy.
CEBRI prioritizes themes with the greatest potential to leverage the international
insertion of Brazil into the global economy, proposing pragmatic solutions for the
formulation of public policies. CEBRI’s work was recognized by the University of
Pennsylvania’s top global think tank ranking, which considered the institution the 2nd
best think tank in South and Central America in 2020.
The Asia Program is one of the twelve regional and thematic programs currently
operating at CEBRI. The Program is coordinated by CEBRI’s Trustee Anna Jaguaribe,
CEBRI’s International Advisory Board member Ambassador Marcos Caramuru, and
by the Senior Fellow Phillip Yang. External experts can be invited to participate in ad
hoc activities, projects, and seminars, according to the Program’s agenda.
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ASIA PROGRAM
The Program promotes a systematic monitoring
of matters relevant to international relations and
Brazilian development, particularly those related to
China. Special attention has been given to monitoring
the ongoing economic reforms and political
transformations in China, considering their global
effects and impacts in Latin America and Brazil. This
continuous examination allows CEBRI to provide
information and analysis to its members, partners
and to the Brazilian government, contributing to the
construction of Brazil’s strategic position towards
China, as well as helping increase knowledge about
China within Brazilian society.
ASIA PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT, YEAR IV
DECEMBER 2, 2021
CHINA ANALYSIS GROUP MEETING Online discussion panel via Zoom
SUPPORT:
Guiding Questions 07
Meeting Report 08
Participants 17
Guiding Questions
2. Who will win the contest, the United States or China? How
did Covid-19 impact U.S-China relations?
A
ccording to Professor Kishore Mahbubani, the U.S-China geopolitical contest
will shake the world for the next 10 years. As stated in the first paragraph
of the book, in some ways, Biden’s election demonstrated that “although
President Donald Trump launched the first round [of the dispute] in 2018, it
will outlast his Administration”. This demonstrates that the U.S-China dispute is driven
by deep structural forces.
The first structural force reflects a 2000-year rule of power politics, in which whenever
the world’s number one emerging power — which today is China — is about to overtake
the world’s number one power — which today is the United States of America —,
the most powerful nation always pushes down the emerging nation. Thus, Professor
Mahbubani stressed that the U.S endeavor in preventing China from taking the lead is
normal behavior, especially because Washington did not expect this to happen as fast.
In 2000, the United States’ GNP in nominal market terms was eight times the size of
China’s; today, it’s only 1.5 times larger. Within 10 years, China will grow even more and
is likely to surpass the United States. Therefore, it is normal for the United States to want
to remain the number one power.
The second structural force relates to the fact that decisions are made not only through
rationality but also through emotions. For the past nine hundred years, the Western
imagination repressed the fear of the yellow peril; however, this emotional element
has been present on several occasions. In 1882, the United States Congress passed
the Chinese Racial Exclusion Act that prohibited the immigration of Chinese laborers
to the United States. Nowadays, yellow peril is a concept that is not considered to be
politically correct in Western societies. Nevertheless, the United States’ strong reaction
to the return of China shows that this contest is driven by rational and emotional
considerations, including the yellow peril perception, with a deep reluctance from the
The third structural factor concerns the belief the United States had for China to
open its economy and political system, becoming a liberal democracy. From the U.S
perspective, a young country with less than 250 years of history and one-quarter of
the Chinese population could transform China, which has four times the U.S population
and four thousand years of history. However, China does not show any signs that it will
become a democratic regime anytime soon or ever. This arrogant assumption of the
United States being able to transform China has led Washington feeling a deep sense of
disappointment with Beijing. The United States did not understand that their success in
the last 130 years was exceptional. Now, the world is returning to normalcy. Over the
last 2000 years, the two largest economies of the world were always China and India.
In addition, the U.S-China geopolitical contest is also driven by the mistakes made by
both sides. Professor Mahbubani dedicated an entire chapter to approach how China
wrongfully alienated the U.S business community. For a long time, this community was
China’s main advocate in Washington, making large amounts of profits in China. As an
example, Boeing’s second-largest customer is China, only after the United States. General
Motors, the world’s largest automobile company, and the U.S largest company, earns
more profits from the Chinese market than it does from the U.S market. Apple is also
very dependent on China. However, because of mandatory technology transfer in joint
ventures, the losses of intellectual property in China, and unequal level playing field in
the competition between a U.S company and a Chinese company, participants stressed
that the complaints of U.S businesses were legitimate. Then, when Trump launched the
trade war in 2018 against China, the U.S business community, which once would have
intervened on China’s behalf, became silent.
In the case of the United States, Professor Mahbubani argued that Washington
inappropriately launched a geopolitical conscience against China without working out a
comprehensive long-term strategy. In the year 2009, the size of the retail goods market
in China was 1.8 trillion dollars, whereas the size of that same market in the United States
was 4 trillion dollars. In 2019, two years after Trump’s trade war and the imposition of
tariffs, sanctions, restrictions to damage the Chinese economy, the size of China’s retail
goods market reached 6 trillion dollars, while the U.S market went from 4 trillion to
5.5 trillion. For exporters, the Chinese market became bigger than the U.S market, and
this gap will grow further. Thus, the trade war launched against China did not harm the
Chinese market; instead, the American workers, farmers, and consumers. As a result, the
bipartisan consensus against China has not been upheld, and the Biden Administration
still struggles to reverse the tariffs put in place by the Trump Administration, which
reflects a lack of strategy towards China.
P
rofessor Mahbubani mentioned that it is inconceivable for the United States
to consider the possibility of losing the trade war against China. From the U.S
perspective, this is a contest between a vibrant democracy in the United States
and a rigid and inflexible communist party system in China. Thus, as it happened
with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the United States will be victorious.
Nevertheless, looking at the current U.S society, the United States is no longer a
democracy; rather, it became a plutocracy. For the past 30 years, all the rewards of
development have gone to the top 1% of the population, and the bottom 50% have
not seen any improvement in their standard of living. As life expectancy in the United
States declines and infant mortality increases, a “sea of despair” spreads among the
white American working classes, which explains the election of Donald Trump in 2016.
In order to ease the tensions, participants argued that Biden must tackle the challenges
faced by the bottom 50%, who largely voted for Trump. The U.S President should not
pinpoint China as the number one enemy. Instead, it should be Donald Trump, whose
re-election could pose more risks to the world. To prevent Trump from returning to the
presidency, Biden should tone down the geopolitical contest with China, and focus on
improving the economic development of the American people, lowering wage inequality.
This also means decreasing its defense military expenditures. For example, the United
States spends almost 10 billion dollars to build an aircraft carrier, which can be sunk by
a hundred-thousand-dollar Chinese hypersonic missile. Thus, the United States needs
to understand that it cannot treat China like the Soviet Union. Instead of investing
massively in defense, it should spend more on improving the livelihood of its people,
which will be good for Biden, the United States, and the world.
As stated in Chapter 6, unlike the rigid inflexible communist party that ran the Soviet
Union, China became a meritocracy, selecting the most capable individuals to run the
society. For decades, China could not harvest the best brains in the country. Now, the
Chinese government can attract top professionals to work for the Chinese communist
party. In a population of 1.4 billion people, only the number one student can join the
Chinese communist party, and this demonstrates the quality of brainpower that the
Chinese communist party accumulated. In addition, the successful case of China and the
failed case of the United States while managing the Covid-19 shows the discrepancy in
the competency level. Although the pandemic started in China, the Chinese government
In parallel, Professor Mahbubani stressed that China must not underestimate the United
States. The United States continues to be the most successful society in world history.
The amount of power the country accumulated across a wide range of areas is far greater
than what most societies achieved. The United States still has the advantage of attracting
the best experts from all around the world. For example, some of the biggest companies
in the United States, such as Google and Microsoft, are run by foreigners. In addition, as
a means of upholding the tech competition against China, the Biden administration is
currently seeking approval for the largest long-term investment program in infrastructure,
with a focus on clean technologies and power transportation. The U.S government made
bold state-funded investments in science and technology and streaming to industrial
policy, as seen in Chapter 5. Also, to counter back the Chinese dual circulation and the
opening of China’s financial market, the United States used a wide range of investments
not only from the United States, but also from the whole investments in the portfolio,
and increased the level of FDI.
Therefore, Professor Mahbubani pinpointed that the outcome depends on the ability
of a nation in creating the impression of knowing what it wants, coping successfully
with the problems of its internal life, coping with the responsibilities of world power,
and having a spiritual vitality before the international community. Considering the
United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the former was ahead on all
these points. Today, in the contest between Washington and Beijing, the latter may be
ahead on all four points. In the last 40 years, the Chinese people witnessed a greater
improvement in their standard of living and quality of life in 4,000 years of Chinese
history. Yet, Americans still wonder the reasons why the Chinese people continue to
support the Chinese communist party, whose support went from 86% in 2003 to 93%
in 2016.
D
uring the Cold War, many countries sided with the United States against
the Soviet Union. The U.S government counted on the support of European
countries, East Asian nations, such as Japan, South Korea, and even China, as
well as major third world countries, such as Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
Currently, some countries concur with the notion of China further opening its markets,
creating a more level playing field for business, and accepting additional norms
internationally. Nonetheless, unlike the Cold War, very few countries enthusiastically
endorse Washington in the geopolitical contest against Beijing. As an example, all QUAD
members claim that the organism is not an anti-China alliance, especially because China
is their number one trading partner. For this matter, they cannot afford to alienate China,
which explains the motivations of not mentioning China in their final communiqué after
their summit in March 2021.
According to Professor Mahbubani, Biden’s strategy towards China is flawed because the
United States cannot ask countries to choose sides since they want to do business with
both powers. In Asia, there was the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership, which was an important step for the Asian economic space. In Europe,
there was the EU-China investment agreement, and the carryout of the Russian-German
pipeline, Nordstrom 2. In Latin America, China is now the main destination for Brazilian
exports, accounting for around 34% of the total trade value, ahead of other important
partners such as the United States, who take the share of 10%, and even local partners,
such as Argentina. In addition, ASEAN became China’s largest trading partner. In 2000,
ASEAN trade with the United States was 130 billion dollars, whereas with China was
only 40 billion dollars. However, similar to what happened to Brazil, ASEAN trade with
China has grown, and by 2019, United States trade with ASEAN went from 130 billion
to 300 billion, whereas ASEAN trade with China went up from 40 billion to 660 billion.
Therefore, participants argued that most countries are not capable of choosing between
the United States and China.
For instance, as argued in the last chapter of the book, Professor Mahbubani concluded
that this contest is inevitable and avoidable. Thus, other countries must send a consistent
message to Washington and Beijing so they can help avoid further damages. Indeed,
structural forces are driving this contest. Nonetheless, human intervention can make
Regarding China, Professor Mahbubani stressed that, although Beijing has become
more assertive, it did not become as aggressive as it could. Inevitably, China behaves
according to the size of its economy. The Chinese GNP, which was 10% the size of U.S
purchasing power priority terms in 1980, is now bigger than the U.S size. For instance,
all great powers are going to have a greater impact on the world, and the international
community must adjust to the arrival of a new great power such as China. Countries
should persuade Beijing to accept that it is in China’s best interest to support the rules-
based order that the West created, advocate for the United Nations, and defend the
international law, instead of criticizing China publicly as did by the Trump and Biden
administrations.
Concerning the United States, Professor Mahbubani mentioned that it is not clear what
Washington aims to accomplish recently with China – whether is trying to prevent China
from becoming the number one economy in the world, isolate China, or overthrow the
Chinese communist party –. The United States must understand what can or cannot be
done. Participants affirmed that if partners such as Brazil emphasize the importance of
China for its economy, this can have an impact on Washington. In the Brazilian case, the
United States and China have been the most important trade partners of Brazil over the
past decade. Since China was the country that reacted and responded more vividly to
the pandemic, the consequences for the Chinese growth were diminished, as well in its
trade partners. For this matter, even though the Brazilian labor market has not recovered
because of its external sector, the partnership between China and Brazil resulted in
weaker negative impacts. This declaration could make the U.S government adopt a more
intelligent policy that will be better for the American and Chinese peoples.
Lastly, Professor Mahbubani highlighted that there are non-contradictions in the U.S-
China relations, in which they have common interests that could reduce the tensions
and promote further cooperation. The first area of mutual interest is improving the well-
being of their people. Biden’s priority should be to improve the living conditions of the
American people by focusing on their economic development and not on the geopolitical
contest. The United States has spent five to six trillion dollars fighting unnecessary wars.
Reallocating those resources to the bottom 50% would result in each citizen receiving
approximately 30,000 dollars. This could change the situation of several vulnerable
families living in the United States, especially because 60% of the population does not
Cecília Machado
Chief-Economist at BOCOM BBM Bank and a professor at the Brazilian School of Economics
and Finance of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (EPGE/FGV). She is a columnist for Folha de
São Paulo newspaper, where she writes every two weeks. She is an associate researcher
at the IZA, and associate editor of EconomiA magazine. She has research projects funded
by international agencies (Gates Foundation and IDRC) and national ones (Young Scientist
of Our State by Faperj and Research Productivity Grant by CNPq). She holds a bachelor’s
degree in economics from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, a master’s degree in
economics from PUC-Rio, and a PhD in economics from Columbia University.
Kishore Mahbubani
Diplomat and author of eight books. Mahbubani is currently a Distinguished Fellow at
the Asia Reseach Institute of the National University of Singapore, and former President
of the UN Security Council and the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
Policy. His books and articles in the New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times
and Foreign Affairs have earned him global recognition. He was inducted into the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences in October 2019.
Ricardo Mioto
Editor of Intrínseca, responsible for books on business, economics and contemporary
issues. He was previously a reporter and editor at Folha de S.Paulo, communications
director of the Empiricus investment platform, and, as partner of the FSB agency,
communications consultant for multinationals such as McKinsey and Twitter.
Tatiana Rosito
Senior Fellow at CEBRI. She was also the founder and coordinator of CEBRI’s China
Analysis Group. She is a diplomat and an economist, currently working as a consultant at
the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai. She was Petrobras’ Chief-Representative
in China and General Manager for Business Development in Asia.Previously, she was
Executive Secretary at the Brazilian Foreign Trade Board (CAMEX) and Special Advisor to
the Ministers of Finance and Planning. She is also an invited member of the Consultative
Committee of the Brazil-China Business Council. She holds a Master’s degree in
International Development from the Harvard Kennedy School and an Executive MBA from
INSEAD and Tsinghua University.
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