Chebysheva Daria

IR-20

Brexit

The reasons:

· The EU threatens British sovereignty

Over the past few decades, a series of EU treaties have shifted a growing
amount of power from individual member states to the central EU bureaucracy
in Brussels. On subjects where the EU has been granted authority — like com-
petition policy, agriculture, and copyright and patent law — EU rules override
national laws

· The EU was a good idea, but the euro is a disaster

Many economists believe that deeper fiscal and political integration will be
needed for the eurozone to work properly. Europe needs a common welfare and
tax system so that countries facing particularly severe downturns — like Greece
and Spain — can get extra help from the center. But that makes Britain’s con-
tinued inclusion in the EU awkward. Britain is unlikely to go along with deeper
fiscal integration, but it would also be unwieldy to create a set of new, parallel
eurozone-specific institutions that excluded the UK.

· The EU allows too many immigrants

"In recent years, hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans have come to

Britain to do a job," British journalist and Brexit supporter Douglas Murray told
me last week. This, he argues, has "undercut the native working population."

The UK absorbed 333,000 new people, on net, in 2015. That’s a significant

number for a country Britain’s size.

Immigration has become a highly politicized issue in Britain, as it has in the

United States and many other places over the past few years. Anti-immigration
campaigners like Nigel Farage, the leader of the far-right UK Independence
Party, have argued that the flood of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Eu-
rope has depressed the wages of native-born British workers. Some voters are
also concerned about immigrants using scarce public services.
 · The UK could have a more rational immigration system outside the EU

EU rules require the UK to admit all EU citizens who wants to move to Britain,
whether or not they have good job prospects or English skills.

"Leave" advocates argue that the UK should be focused on admitting immi-

grants who will bring valuable skills to the country and integrate well into
British culture. They mention the point-based immigration systems of Canada
and Australia, which award potential migrants points based on factors like their
language and job skills, education, and age. That, "leave" advocates argue,
would allow the UK to admit more doctors and engineers who speak fluent
English, and fewer unskilled laborers with limited English skills.

· The UK could keep the money it currently sends to the EU

The EU doesn’t have the power to directly collect taxes, but it requires member
states to make an annual contribution to the central EU budget. Currently, the
UK’s contribution is worth about £13 billion ($19 billion) per year, which is
about $300 per person in the UK.
Brexit supporters still argue that it would be better for the UK to simply keep
the money and have Parliament decide how to spend it.

Brexit in dates (evolution)

· 23 June, 2016: The UK votes to leave the EU by 52% to 48% in a refer-

endum.
· 31 January, 2020: The UK leaves the EU under the terms of a negotiated
divorce deal, but most arrangements remain the same under an 11-month
"transition period".
· 24 December, 2020: The UK and the EU strike a last-minute agreement
on post-Brexit trade and future relations, after months of deadlocked ne-
gotiations, heading off a damaging "no-deal" scenario.
· 31 December, 2020: The transition period expires, and the terms of the
UK's new life outside the EU come into force on 1 January, 2021.

Results for UK
Cons
· Breaking trade links with EU countries and outflow of foreign capital
from the country
Overall, the UK’s economic performance has been disappointing since the ref-
erendum, and since the implementation of the Trade and Co-operation Agree-
ment with the EU. 3 factors have weighed on growth – the sharp fall in sterling
immediately after the referendum which has not been recovered, the continuing
poor levels of business investment, driven in part by Brexit, and reduced trade.

The impact of the pandemic makes it very difficult to quantify these effects, but
there is a clear consensus among independent economists that Brexit has made
UK poorer. The Office of Budget Responsibility’s current estimate is that Brexit
has reduced UK GDP by about 1.5%, with a further reduction of 2.5% still to
come.

· Reduction of imports and exports

There has been a reduction in imports of goods, capital and labor due to with-
drawal from the single European market. Exports also decreased significantly.
Now there is a wall of duties, taxes and formalities between the UK and the EU.
Brexit barriers to trade cost the UK almost 13 billion pounds, or about 16% of
its previous trade turnover. By contrast, it is difficult to point to any significant
overall economic benefits of Brexit to date. So while Brexit proponents can still
point to potential future benefits, so far test one has been failed.

· The risk of losing Northern Ireland and Scotland, whose desire to be part
of the United Kingdom was in part motivated by desire for EU member-
ship

Brexit has jeopardized not only the UK's revenues, but also the unity of the
kingdom. Of the four nations that make up it, only England and Wales are hold-
ing together so far. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, Brexit has awakened cen-
trifugal forces.

Pros

· Brexit has been successful in restricting immigration. The total number of

arrivals has sharply decreased
· the growth of domestic sovereignty;
· the possibility of free regulation of migration policy;
· flexibility of tax policy;
· no obligation to pay membership fees and, as a result, saving money;
· increased security before terrorist attacks.
In addition, the UK understood that membership in the European Union hin-
dered its trade relations with other countries. After leaving the EU, it was able
to trade in any volume with actively developing China.
Thus, by implementing the Brexit procedure, the UK has opened up new oppor-
tunities for itself in terms of establishing more beneficial relations with non-EU
states and conducting its own foreign economic policy.

Brexit consequences for the EU:

· Brexit could embolden Eurosceptic movements in countries such as Den-

mark and Austria. This could lead to calls for similar referendums, and, in
the extreme, perhaps even to the unravelling of the EU.
· Brexit would alter member states’ relative strength within the EU. States
that previously drew on UK support would be weakened, whereas Ger-
many could be strengthened.
· Ireland would be particularly affected by Brexit. Beyond the economic
impact, the peace process could be undermined and border controls be-
tween the Republic and the North might need to be re-established.

• the types of the deals, the difference of the deals (Soft, Hard, no deal, divorce
deal, Article 50, Good Friday agreement etc)

A no-deal Brexit (also called clean break Brexit) was the potential withdrawal
of the UK from the European Union without a withdrawal agreement. Under
Article 50 of the Maastricht Treaty, the Treaties of the European Union would
have ceased to apply once a withdrawal agreement was ratified or if the two
years had passed since a member state had indicated its will to leave the Euro-
pean Union. The two-year period could have been extended by unanimous con-
sent from all member states, including the member state that was wishing to
leave the European Union.

A no-deal outcome would likely result in an economic hit for both sides, disrup-
tion at UK-EU border points and political acrimony. A no-deal Brexit would
also disrupt the busiest EU-UK border points, with border checks and taxes in-
troduced for goods travelling between the two.

The UK’s financial settlement, or so-called “Brexit divorce bill”, refers to the
expected payment the United Kingdom has to make to the EU to honour its
share of the financial commitments jointly undertaken by EU countries while
the UK was a member of the European Union. (when the UK left the EU on 31
January 2020 contribution was £35.6 billion (€42.4 billion).
Article 50 says: “Any member state may decide to withdraw from the union in
accordance with its own constitutional requirements.” It specifies that a leaver
should notify the European council of its intention, negotiate a deal on its with-
drawal and establish legal grounds for a future relationship with the EU. On the
European side, the agreement needs a qualified majority of member states and
consent of the European parliament.

Nine months after the UK voted to get out of the European Union in a referen-
dum, Prime Minister Theresa May activated the official mechanism that will
make it a reality - Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This was followed by a state -
ment from Mrs May to the House of Commons, where she said now was "the
moment for the country to come together"

The time-frame allowed in Article 50 is two years - and this can only be ex-
tended by unanimous agreement from all EU countries.
The United Kingdom officially left the EU on January 31, 2020, three and a half
years after the Brexit referendum.

The Good Friday Agreement, which is also known as the Belfast Agreement,
was signed on Good Friday, 10 April 1998. It consists of two closely related
agreements, the British-Irish Agreement and the Multi-Party Agreement. It led
to the establishment of a system of devolved government in Northern Ireland
and the creation of many new institutions such as the Northern Ireland Assem-
bly and Executive, the North South Ministerial Council and the British-Irish
Council.

The terms of the Good Friday Agreement were not affected by the withdrawal
of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Any change to the Good Fri-
day Agreement must be agreed by both the British and Irish governments.

Ireland’s diplomat warned that the lingering dispute between the United King-
dom and the European Union over post-Brexit border arrangements could lead
to the “collapse” of institutions around the Good Friday Agreement.

“The real threat here is the collapse of the institutions of the Good Friday
Agreement, which would be very, very problematic,” said Simon Coveney, Ire-
land’s foreign minister.

“It means no government in Northern Ireland functioning as it should, it means

damage to the east-west relationship between Dublin and London”.

“Whether tensions around the protocol can result in the collapse of the institu-
tions of the Good Friday Agreement, that is a very real threat.”
The attitude of the PMs !!, the opposition, Brussels etc to Brexit in general
and specifically to different deals and outcomes. (with details and quotes)

David Cameron (Conservative 2010-2016)

Former British Prime Minister David Cameron says he is "truly sorry" for the
chaos and division caused by Brexit, but still defends holding the vote that trig-
gered Britain's messy divorce from the European Union.

Cameron, who took office in 2010, campaigned for the U.K. to remain in the
E.U. after calling the June 2016 referendum. He resigned the morning after the
country voted to leave.

Quotes:

"Every single day I think about it, the referendum and the fact that we lost and
the consequences and the things that could have been done differently, and I
worry desperately about what is going to happen next."

"It pains me what has happened and the fact that we lost and the mistakes I
made," Cameron said.

"I think the biggest mistake was letting expectations about what a renegotiation
of Britain's position in the European Union could achieve," he said. "I allowed
people to think there were much more fundamental changes — that we could al-
most have a sort of pick-and-choose aspect to which European laws we obeyed
and which we didn't. And this, I think, was damaging."

Theresa May (Conservative 2016-2019)

Theresa May became prime minister in 2016 with one overriding goal: to lead
Britain out of the European Union.

British Prime Minister Theresa May presented the final plan for the country's
exit from the EU at a government meeting. The plan, in fact, implies the preser-
vation of close economic ties with the European Union and the creation of a free
trade zone after leaving the EU. In addition, according to the plan, the UK par-
tially recognizes the jurisdiction of the EU judicial system and undertakes to
obey its decisions.
Summing up the meeting, May said that the discussions are over, and those who
disagree with this plan should leave the government. In response, Boris Johnson
accused Theresa May that under her leadership the country is heading towards a
semi-Brexit, when a significant part of the UK economy remains in the EU sys-
tem, and the United Kingdom will not have control over this system.

Northern Ireland: an anchor that will be able to keep Britain subordinate to the
EU for a long time

It was this point of the draft agreement that caused the most indignation of the
Brexiters and even resignations in the government. Now the border between Ire-
land and Northern Ireland, of course, exists, but only on the map. In reality, it
does not exist.

Theresa May has a temporary retreat plan, which she called a 'backstop'. The
Prime Minister proposes to arrange a "single customs territory" of the United
Kingdom and the EU. This means that the country will live according to the
laws of the single European market even after Brexit – until the United King-
dom and the EU come to a permanent agreement on the border.

If it is still possible to get out of the game without the EU's consent, then it will
simply be impossible to get out of the "backstop" proposed by Theresa May
without the full consent of the EU.
This means that the UK under this plan will simply be obliged to continue to
comply with European rules. And it will not be able to conclude trade agree-
ments with other countries if they involve the lifting of any restrictions.

Quotes:
July 13, 2016, in her first speech as prime minister: “As we leave the European
Union, we will forge a bold, new, positive role for ourselves in the world.”

January 17, 2017: “After all the division and discord, the country is coming to-
gether.”

'I am going to deliver it on time'

"What people voted for last year was for us to leave the European Union, and
we will leave the EU on the 29th of March, 2019."
"And I'm clear that I am going to deliver Brexit, I am going to deliver it on time,
that is what I am going to do for the British public."

Theresa May resigned on June 7, 2019. The reason that pushed May to make
such a decision was the inability to pass through parliament an agreement with
the EU on the terms of Brexit. The Prime Minister has faced fierce opposition
from her own cabinet to her latest Brexit proposals, made in order to get the
deal passed by MPs.

"I have done everything possible to convince the parliamentarians to support

this agreement. Unfortunately, I couldn't do it. I tried [to do it] three times.
However, it has now become clear to me that it will be in the best interests of
the country if a new prime minister takes up these efforts," May said.

Boris Johnson (Conservative 2019-2022)

In his first speech as PM, Boris Johnson said that the United Kingdom would
leave the European Union on 31 October 2019 with or without a deal, and
promised to remove the Irish backstop from the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Johnson declared his intention to re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agree-
ment, but talks did not immediately resume as the EU refused to accept John-
son's pre-condition that the backstop be removed.

In December 2019, Johnson said: "quite a large number of people coming in

from the whole of the EU—580 million population—had been able to treat the
UK as though it's basically part of their own country and the problem with that
is there has been no control at all".

“I hope now that my fellow MPs will come together in order to ensure that
Brexit happens and that we can get this excellent deal over the line” Boris John-
son

“Now is the moment to get Brexit done and start to work on the future partner-
ship with the EU.”

Boris Johnson and the EU have agreed that there will be no border between
Northern Ireland and Ireland, while Northern Ireland will de jure leave the Eu-
ropean Customs Union, but de facto remain in it. The customs border will run
along the Irish Sea, separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the United
Kingdom.

In 2020, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed an agreement with the Eu-
ropean Union on post-Brexit trade. One of the main documents in the frame-
work of the general agreement was the trade agreement, which provides for the
mutual absence of duties and quotas. Before that, the document was supported
in the British Parliament. 521 legislators voted for him, 73 against him. The ne-
gotiations lasted more than four years, and the deal concerns an annual trade
turnover of more than a trillion dollars.

"Brexit is not the end, but the beginning of something new. Now we have a re-
sponsibility: to make the best use of the power and the tools that we have got
back into our hands," Johnson said. He expressed confidence that cooperation
with the European Union will be in the common interests.

The UK officially left the European Union on January 1, 2021

The reaction of the world community:

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted: "Europe, Scotland will be

back soon! Don't turn off the light."

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said there was "nothing to celebrate", the
relationship between the United Kingdom and Ireland would now be different,
but "we wish them success."

French President Emmanuel Macron, although he said that Britain "remains a

friend and ally," but added that the decision to leave Europe was the result of
"European malaise [the eurozone crisis and the influx of refugees], lies and false
promises."

The head of the BBC's European news department, Katya Adler, said that in
Brussels, on the one hand, they are glad that Brexit as a process has been com-
pleted, and on the other hand, they are sad that it happened at all. The general
opinion, however, is that both the EU and Britain will become weaker after
parting.