ELECTIONS

POSC 1010
Spring 2024
Nomination Process

General Election (w/focus on

presidential)

Congressional Elections
Contents in
Campaigning Brief
Campaign Finance

Bundling
ELECTION
BASICS
 The Basics

Most elections require • Requires runoff where no one wins majority

majority to win (50% + 1)

Some states have • Whoever gets the most votes, even if <50%
plurality system • Ex., Ahnahld in Kulifornya… he won with 48.6%

It is left to states to
determine own election
laws
THE NOMINATION
PROCESS
Evolution of the
Primary System
■ Early after ratification of Constitution:
Candidates for office nominated by
legislative caucus
– All legislators of each party met to
select candidates
– Candidates then put to popular vote
■ 1824 – Andrew Jackson fails to win
nomination of Congressional Caucus
– Leads to formation of party
convention system for nomination
Evolution of the
Primary System
■ Convention Process
– Recall party structure from last
chapter…
– Began with precinct meetings where
voters had opportunity to become
delegates to county convention
– County convention elected
delegates to state convention
■ County convention also nominated
candidates for local office
Evolution of the
Primary System
■ Convention Process
– State conventions nominated
candidates for statewide offices
(governor, etc.) & delegates to
national convention
– National convention nominated
presidential candidates
■ Nominees were selected by delegates
at convention, not by primary
Evolution of the
Primary System
■ Convention Process
– Intended to be democratic reform of
nomination process
■ Allowed “common man” voters a
chance at participating
■ Took out of hands of “elites” in
legislature
Evolution of the Primary System

■ Convention Process
– Problems:
■ Susceptible to manipulation by party “bosses”
– Bosses in turn manipulated by special interests
■ Nominees frequently were not popular with electorate
■ In areas where there was one-party dominance, general elections
offered no choice, ergo, winner never voted on by general electorate
Evolution of the Primary System
■ Convention Process
– Problems:
■ In areas where there was one-party dominance, general elections
offered no choice, ergo, winner never voted on by general electorate
– This led to adoption of primary elections (starting with
Wisconsin in 1903)
– In some states (including SC) candidates can be nominated by
either primary or convention (caucus) method
 Presidential hopefuls must file in each
state to be on ballot

Note, they don’t have to file in every state, just

Modern the ones they want to have a shot at winning

Primary
System,
Presidential Primary elections (or caucuses) held in
each state on agreed-upon dates
(determined by each party… not all on
same day)
Modern Primary System, Presidential

■ Determining who delegates will

vote for:
– Primary election (more on next slide)
– Caucus (a “mini-convention” held
at precinct level)
– In Democrat Party only:
■ “Super delegates”
– After 2016, these guys only
vote if nomination is contested
Modern Primary System, Presidential

■ Primary election – voters go to polls to vote like any other election

– Closed primary – can only vote in your own party’s primary
(requires party registration)
– Open primary – can vote in either party’s primary (but just one
per election)
Modern Primary System, Presidential

■ Delegates to convention selected

– Number of delegates from each state is determined by population
(roughly proportional to electoral votes)
– Delegates “belong” to candidate, but can be “released” by
candidate to support someone else at convention
■ Delegates assigned according to winner by congressional district
■ RNC allows winner-take-all in states that so choose
Modern Primary System, Presidential

■ In national convention:
– Delegates declare selection during roll call of states
– Candidate with majority of delegates wins
– Typically, nominee is already decided (convention just a formality)
– If no clear winner, voting continues until someone wins
■ Hasn’t gone beyond “first ballot” since DNC in 1952
ELECTING A PRESIDENT,
GENERAL ELECTION
Electing the Prez

■ Recall, popular vote does not elect the president

■ Electoral College (“not an actual university”)
– Number of electors determined by state population
– # of House districts in state + 2 (# of senators) = # of electors
■ E.g., SC has 7 congressional districts, so SC has 9 electors
■ Number of house districts (& ergo electors) determined following
each census (every 10 years)
– Electors are not necessarily constrained to vote for candidate that won
their state (although some states have laws binding them to their
state’s winner)
Electing the Prez

■ Electoral College (“not an actual university”)

– Most states are winner-take-all
– Maine & Nebraska have proportional representation
■ Electors assigned by who won each congressional district, plus 2 at-
large electors go to winner of state popular vote
■ It’s up to individual states which way they apportion their elec. votes
Electing the Prez
■ Electoral College
(“not an actual university”)
– After election day, electors gather in
state capital to cast vote
– Votes are then tallied by U.S. House of
Representatives to make it official
– If no majority (270/538 currently) in
electoral vote, House of
Representatives picks among top 3
electoral vote-getters
■ Each state delegation gets one vote
■ Has only happened twice (1800 & 1824)
Electing the Prez

■ Electoral College (“not an actual university”)

– Objections to Electoral College:
■ Possibility of president being elected having lost popular vote
– Happened more than once… most recently in 2000 & 2016
■ Purpose (to prevent “mob rule” from electing despot) has “never
happened” and is “unnecessary/outdated”
■ Fear of “rogue” electors (there were rumors in 2000 prior to E.C.
vote; attempted in 2016)
Electing the Prez
■ Electoral College
(“not an actual university”)
– Suggested reforms
■ Switch to simple popular vote (would require Constitutional amendment)
– Potential problem: small states and less populous areas could be
neglected
■ Do away with winner-take-all; all states use proportional representation (no
amendment necessary)
2020 Electoral Map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2020.svg
CONGRESSIONAL
ELECTIONS
Congressional (House) Districts

■ Divides state up by population

– Reapportionment occurs following each census
– Drawn by state legislature
■ Note, this gives advantage to majority party in state legislature
■ They also draw state House & Senate districts
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2022-senate-and-house-midterm-election-ratings-and-analysis-11664905703
SC
CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICTS
(Pre-2020)
REDISTRICTING IN SC (2022)
Source:
fivethirtyeight.com
REDISTRICTING IN SC (2022)
Source:
fivethirtyeight.com
Congressional (House)
Districts
■ Issue: Gerrymandering
– Drawing districts with bizarre geography in
order to benefit specific party or individual
office-holder
– Subject to review by fed. courts, can be
overturned
■ General standard: should be “compact,
contiguous, & respectful of existing
political boundaries”
– “Benign gerrymandering” (sometimes still
overturned by court)
 THE
“GERRYMANDER”
GERRYMANDERING CASE IN NC (2017)
REDISTRICTING IN NC (2022)

Source:
fivethirtyeight.com
REDISTRICTING IN NC (2022)

Source:
fivethirtyeight.com
Senatorial Elections

■ House elections occur every 2 years (all seats)

■ Senate elections are staggered… 1/3 of seats up for grabs every 2
years
■ Senators are both elected at-large within state (i.e., there are no U.S.
Senate “districts”)
2020 SENATE
ELECTION MAP

Source: realclearpolitics.com
CAMPAIGNING
Strategy (“Strategery”):
General Concepts
■ Name recognition is huuuge (ex., Mark
Sanford going back to Congress)
– Campaign signs (“signs don’t vote”,
but…)
■ “Spin” – making information work for
you (even when it doesn’t)
Strategy:
General Concepts

■ Campaigns work at two levels:

– Grassroots – local and personal… work “peer pressure” angles;
appeal to voters’ personal interests/causes
– En masse – getting the message and the candidate’s face out to
the masses
■ Sometimes winning isn’t the point
– Some campaigns are for gaining awareness of an agenda
Strategy:
Running the Campaign (Grassroots)
■ Polls
– Internal polls – run by campaign itself to keep track of progress
– Voter identification polls
■ Phone polls (using voter records)
■ Issue-oriented, helps identify “target” voters (most likely supporters)
■ Phone banks*
– Calls to ask for support (votes and/or $$)
– GOTV (near or on election day)
– Polling (see above)

* I hated doing these!!

Strategy:
Running the Campaign
(Grassroots)
■ Personal contact (candidate or volunteers)
– Door-to-door (more feasible the more
local the race)
– Literature drop
– Yard signs
– Townhall meetings & stump meetings
– Fundraisers (usually involves food…
lately mostly BBQ  )
Strategy:
Running the Campaign (Broader-
based)
■ Direct mail
– Flyers (all voters or to likely supporters)
– Fundraising letters
■ Ads
– Newspaper inserts (cheap and good
especially for local races)
– Radio (mostly local races, but not exclusively)
– TV (generally too expensive for local races,
especially in less urbanized areas)
Strategy:
Running the Campaign (Broader-based)

■ The Internet
– Website (relatively inexpensive, broad coverage)
– Social media (of course!)
– Email lists (regular emails to supporters)
Strategy:
Running the Campaign (Broader-
based)
■ News coverage (big advantage to
incumbents)
– Note on incumbency
■ 82% incumbency rate in Senate
historically
■ 90%+ in House
– In 1994 “Republican Revolution”, still
92% of incumbents were reelected
Campaign Finance
■ “Hard” money – money used to explicitly endorse candidate
– Contribution limits apply
■ Personal contribution limit - $2,000 per candidate per election
– Previously $1,000, increased by McCain-Feingold Bill
– $37,500 total limit on individual contributions per election (for
all candidates)
– Includes “in-kind” contributions
■ Candidate not limited in how much he/she can contribute to
own campaign (Buckley v. Valeo)
Campaign Finance
■ “Soft” money – spent on “issue advocacy ads”
– Do not specifically endorse candidate, but issues favorable to him
■ Political Action Committees (PACs)
– Created by Campaign Reform Bill of 1971
– Private organizations that raise money to contribute to campaigns
■ Kind of like a “mutual fund” for campaign financing
■ Higher contribution limits than individuals
– Also contribute soft money for issue ads
– Some candidates refuse money from PACs on principle
Campaign Finance
■ Public (government) funding
– Available to major party candidates or if their party got at least 5% of
popular vote in previous election
– Available as matching funds once candidate has reached fundraising
threshold
– Limits how much they can raise and continue to receive public funding
– Some favor moving entirely to public funding of campaigns (no
fundraising)
Campaign Finance –
Enforcement
■ Federal Election Commission (FEC)
– Run by 6-member board
(independent agency)
– Campaigns must submit detailed
finance records periodically
– Inconsistencies may be
investigated & prosecuted
■ State election commissions handle
this for state & local elections
BUNDLING
One more thing…
One More Thing…
■ Bundling
– Candidate essentially represents a “bundle” of policy positions
■ For example, suppose 2 candidates with differing positions on:
– Immigration
– Abortion
– Taxes
– Social Security
– Military spending
– Healthcare
– Which candidate will a voter vote for?
One More Thing…

■ Bundling
– Suppose 100 people voted in 2016 prez election
■ Of these, suppose 51 voted for Trump (a majority… pretend)
– But did they all vote for him for the same reasons?
One More Thing…

Issue # Agreed (Trump voters)* #Disagreed (Trump voters)*

Immigration 30 21
Abortion 45 6
Taxes 40 11
Social Security 21 30
Military Spending 39 12
Healthcare 42 9

* Totally made-up numbers

One More Thing…

■ Bundling
– Suppose 100 people voted in 2016 prez election
■ No single issue got a majority of support (in our example)
■ Yet, Trump (or any other politician) sees victory as mandate for all his
positions.
Conclusion
■ Elections have evolved since the Founding
– Primaries:
■ Initially, candidates nominated by legislative caucus
■ …then by conventions
■ …then by primary system
(what was overall direction were these changes taking it?)
– President (general election)
■ Electoral College (always & still)
Conclusion

■ Elections have evolved since the Founding

– Congress:
■ House districts drawn according to population by state legislatures
following each Census
■ Senate originally appointed by state legislatures, elected at large
since 17th Amendment (ratified 1913)
Conclusion

■ Campaign funding
– Regulated by various reform bills (e.g., McCain-Feingold)
■ Strategy
– Grassroots still crucial, but technology has moved toward more
“mass market” campaigning