Anant Raj

INITIATING COVERAGE
Digits and Dwellings: The Intersection of Realty and Data
BUY

Established in 1969 as a construction company, Anant Raj is a leading real estate

developer in the NCR region with a fully paid land bank of 312 acres of which it holds
1 July 2024
167 acres in the premium location of Golf Course Extension Road, Sector 63A,
BSE Sensex: 79476 Gurugram. The company is also venturing into the Data Center segment with the aim
Sector: Real Estate to reach a capacity of 307MW. We are initiating coverage on ARCP with a 'BUY' rating
and a SOTP based Target Price of Rs620 (40% upside).
Strong pipeline in a well-placed realty market. Inventory levels remain low in both NCR
and Gurugram in particular. We believe this upcycle has still more room to go, driven by
Stock data changing preference towards home ownership versus renting, move towards branded
developers and luxury segments, and favorable interest rates. We expect a slew of new
CMP (Rs) 444 launches in ARCP’s key area – Sector 63A in Gurugram. We expect ARCP’s pre-sales to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn/USD m) 151.7 /1,818 rise from Rs28bn in FY24 to Rs34bn in FY26. Collections also are expected to rise
from Rs9bn in FY24 to Rs26bn in FY26. ARCP’s residential portfolio has a total
Target Price (Rs) 620 revenue potential of Rs150bn and cashflow from these projects is likely to be above
Change in TP (%) NA
Rs110bn. We value ARCP’s residential portfolio using DCF to arrive at a residential NAV
of Rs72bn (Rs211/share). We also value its commercial annuity business at Rs15bn
Potential from CMP (%) 39.7 (Rs45/share) and its 88 acres Delhi land bank at Rs25bn (Rs74/share).
Earnings change (%) Time and cost advantage in high-yielding data center space. Driven by the rise of
digital adoption, advent of 5G and the government’s focus on Data protection, the
FY25E NA
demand for data centers in India has risen exponentially. Data Center capacity is
FY26E NA expected to rise from 966MW in CY23 to 2570MW by CY26. ARCP has entered this
segment and has land and buildings to go to 307MW. This, not only, is cost effective,
Bloomberg code ARCP IN
but also gives a time advantage to ARCP as the civil structures are ready. We see ARCP
1-yr high/low (Rs) 453/175 reaching 157MW by FY28. We value this business at a NAV of Rs102bn
(Rs299/share). We are not building in potential upside from (i) greenfield 150MW
6-mth avg. daily volumes (m) 1.9 expansion and (ii) the cloud services’ pilot project, which if successful, can be
6-mth avg. daily traded value implemented at scale.

(Rsm/USDm) 675.5/8.1 Sharp improvement in financial parameters. We expect revenue to rise at a CAGR of
35% from FY24 to FY26 and EBITDA to rise at 65% CAGR in the same period. EBITDA
Shares outstanding (m) 341.9 margin is likely to improve from 23% in FY24 to 34% in FY26 driven by high-margin
Free float (%) - data center business and launch of luxury residential projects. We expect residential
operating cashflows to remain robust and support Data Center capex going ahead. We
Promoter holding (%) 60 see operating cashflows to rise to Rs17bn in FY26 from Rs4bn in FY24. We believe
that the data center potential is not yet priced in, and the street is waiting for further
Price performance – relative & absolute execution of capacity expansion. ARCP reaching 28MW by FY25 end is a key trigger.
Anant Raj Sensex
800 Key valuation metrics
600 Year to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net sales (Rs m) 4,619 9,569 14,833 18,598 26,944
400
EBITDA (Rs m) 759 1,971 3,338 4,701 9,053
200 Adj. net profit (Rs m) 549 1,511 2,659 3,574 7,154
0 Adj. EPS (Rs) 1.7 4.8 8.1 10.5 20.9
Jul-21 Apr-22 Jan-23 Oct-23 Jul-24
% change 369.4 184.0 68.8 28.8 100.2
(%) 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr
PE (x) 39.1 25.5 38.4 42.4 21.2
ARCP IN 36.9 48.7 150.2 Price/ Book (x) 0.8 1.3 2.8 3.8 3.2
BSE Sensex 7.4 10.0 22.8 EV/ EBITDA (x) 40.7 24.6 31.5 32.6 16.7
RoE (%) 2.1 5.5 8.1 9.3 16.3
RoCE (%) 1.5 4.5 7.2 9.3 17.1
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

Prateek Singh
prateek@damcapital.in
+912242022531

For Private Circulation only “Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
 Anant Raj

STORY IN CHARTS
Exhibit 1: Pre-sales to rise sharply driven by launches Exhibit 2: Strong collections to aid cashflows

Pre Sales (Rs bn) Collections (Rs bn)

40 50

30 40

30
20
20
10
10
0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 3: Revenue to rise at 35% CAGR from FY24 to FY26 Exhibit 4: Better EBITDA margin as Data Center ramps up

Revenue (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

30 10.0 40%

7.5 30%
20
5.0 20%
10
2.5 10%

0 0.0 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 5: We expect 157MW capacity by FY28 end Exhibit 6: Strong data center EBITDA run-rate from FY28

Data Center Capacity (MW) Avg. Rented (MW) Data Center EBITDA (Rs bn)
180 15

135
10
90
5
45

0 0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 7: Residential cashflows to fund data center capex Exhibit 8: We see a 40% upside in ARCP based on SOTP
NAV (Rs mn) Per Share
Residential OCF (Rs bn) Data Centre FCF (Rs bn)
40 Residential 72,033 211
Commercial 15,429 45
30
Data Centers 102,107 299
20 Land Bank 25,263 74
10 GAV 214,832 628
Debt -2,900 -8
0
NAV 211,932 620
-10 CMP 444
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Upside 40%
Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research Source: Company Data, DAM Capital Research

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 Anant Raj

Investment Rationale
 Gurugram real estate – still ripe for the picking
In the last three years, the NCR has consistently seen greater absorption rates than
With a strong residential
available supply. This trend is mainly due to improved affordability, alongside
pipeline, ARCP is also
ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects that facilitate easier movement.
venturing into the high growth
Gurugram shines as a vibrant real estate market within the NCR. In 2022, it
Data Center space with a
captured a substantial 51% of the total units sold across the region. Inventory levels
target to achieve 307MW.
remain low in both NCR and Gurugram in particular. We believe this upcycle has still
more room to go, driven by changing preference towards home ownership versus
renting, move towards branded developers and luxury segments and favorable
interest rates.

 Strong residential pipeline over the next 3 years

ARCP has a strong 9.1mn sft ongoing and upcoming residential and commercial
projects pipeline. The company launched its premium Estate Residences group
housing project in 4QFY24 which was completely booked in the same quarter. We
expect a slew of new launches in its key area – Sector 63A in Gurugram. We expect
ARCP’s pre-sales to rise from Rs28bn in FY24 to Rs34bn in FY26. Driven by new
launches and strong bookings, collections also are expected to rise from Rs9bn in
FY24 to Rs26bn in FY26. ARCP’s residential portfolio has a total revenue potential
of Rs150bn, expected to be completed by FY30. The net pre-tax cashflow from
these projects is likely to be above Rs110bn. We value ARCP’s residential portfolio
using DCF to arrive at a residential NAV of Rs72bn (Rs211/share).

 Pivot to Data Centers – still not priced in

Driven by the rise of digital adoption, advent of 5G and the government’s focus on
Data protection, the demand for data centers in India has risen exponentially. Data
Center capacity is expected to rise from 966MW in CY23 to 2570MW by CY26.
ARCP has “pivoted” to the data center theme by a unique plan to retrofit its
commercial buildings (tech parks in three cities – Manesar, Rai and Panchkula) to
Data Center certified buildings. The company has a time and cost advantage over
others who would venture to set up a data center. As against the benchmark Rs550-
600mn/MW construction costs, ARCP can retrofit its current buildings at
Rs260mn/MW and in much lesser time (6-9 months) versus others (3-4 years).
It has plans to add 307MW data center capacity across the three locations. We
expect ARCP to reach 157MW capacity by FY28. While the company has an option
to add 150MW on top of it, we are not building it in yet. We ascribe a NAV of
Rs102bn.

 Growing its stable annuity portfolio; improvement across parameters

Apart from the residential real estate, ARCP has a stable annuity portfolio in form of
hospitality, retail and office assets which it is looking to grow on the back of FSI
increases across various locations. It is also looking to strategically monetise a
section the newly built area to keep cashflows healthy despite new construction. We
ascribe a NAV of Rs15bn to its commercial annuity portfolio.
ARCP has 88 acres of fully paid up, undeveloped land in Delhi as well. The company
awaits the notification of Delhi Master Plan and would likely develop the land for
warehousing, hospitality and residential projects. We ascribe a value of Rs25bn to it.
We expect revenue to rise at a CAGR of 35% from FY24 to FY26 and EBITDA to rise
at 65% CAGR in the same period. We expect residential operating cashflows to
remain robust and support Data Center capex going ahead. We see operating
cashflows to rise to Rs17bn in FY26 from Rs4bn in FY24.

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 Anant Raj

Gurugram – Still ripe for the picking

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted the economy and real estate
sector, leading to a downturn. During the first half of the year, lockdowns imposed
due to Covid-19 slowed down the residential real estate market in the National
Capital Region (NCR), affecting it for about three months. However, with activities
resuming in the latter part of the year and developers offering various incentives
such as flexible payment plans, additional amenities like appliances and basic
interiors, and extra parking spaces, there was a resurgence in demand for
residential properties. Given the current market conditions and increased economic
activity, the residential market in NCR is expected to see robust growth, driven by
demand from end users .

Exhibit 9: Demand continues to outpace supply in NCR… Exhibit 10: …leading to lower inventory levels

NCR Launches (units) Absorption (units) NCR Inventory (units)

75,000 200,000

60,000
150,000
45,000
100,000
30,000

15,000 50,000

0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 9MCY23 2019 2020 2021 2022 9MCY23
Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research

The positive momentum persisted in 2021, driven by economic recovery, pent-up

demand, and a strong preference for home ownership among buyers as the primary
Over the past three
demand factors. In the last three years, the NCR has consistently seen greater
years, the NCR has
absorption rates than available supply. This trend is mainly due to improved
generally
affordability, alongside ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects that facilitate
experienced higher
easier movement. Moreover, employment opportunities and a market primarily
absorption levels
fueled by end-users connected to employment are expanding the range of choices in
compared to supply
the satellite towns of the NCR. As a result, inventory levels continue to remain low.
in the region.
The NCR is propelled by several key demand drivers. It benefits from extensive
connectivity among its districts, facilitating efficient commuting via both public and
private transport. The presence of Indira Gandhi International Airport has spurred
rapid growth by attracting a substantial population influx. NCR boasts robust social
and lifestyle infrastructure, including prestigious educational institutions, renowned
hospitals, and prominent retail and dining destinations, making it highly desirable
for professionals. Additionally, its accessibility and diverse residential options draw a
talented workforce from Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. The
region's strategic position and burgeoning IT and Global Capability Center (GCC)
sectors further bolster demand, as multinational corporations seek well-equipped
office spaces with proximity to skilled talent pools. NCR's mix of commercial,
IT/ITeS, and SEZ developments ensures broad appeal across various occupier
categories, cementing its status as a dynamic economic hub.

Gurugram shines as a vibrant real estate market within the NCR. In 2022, it captured
a substantial 51% of the total units sold across the region. In the last three years,
Gurugram has witnessed multiple launches, featuring plots and units with additional
amenities like study rooms, catering to growing demand influenced by the work-from-
home trend. Inventory levels in Gurugram continue to remain below Covid peak.

We expect pricing to remain robust in Gurugram, especially in the branded luxury

segment, a trend which we continue to see in major metros.

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 Anant Raj

Exhibit 11: Strong absorption in Gurugram as well Exhibit 12: Inventory levels below Covid peak

Gurugram Launches (units) Absorption (units) Gurugram Inventory (units)

35,000 70,000
60,000
28,000
50,000
21,000 40,000
30,000
14,000
20,000
7,000
10,000
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 9MCY23 2019 2020 2021 2022 9MCY23

Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research

Strong residential launch pipeline over next 3 years

A growing demand for
luxury projects on Golf ARCP started acquiring land and constructing commercial assets (tech parks) in
Course Extension Road 2000s and land parcels in Gurugram for residential development post-2010. The
company has ~200 acres of land in Gurugram and ~100 acres in Delhi. Its key
has prompted major
residential development area is Sector 63A in Gurugram which has marquee
developers to focus on
projects such as Anant Raj Estate, Ashok Estate and Birla Navya (50:50 JV with Birla
launching high-end
Estates). Sector-63A is equidistant from Sohna Road and Golf Course Extension
projects.
Road.

Golf Course Extension Road has emerged as a viable alternative to the renowned
Golf Course Road, establishing itself as a central hub for luxury real estate in
Gurugram. This extension was developed to satisfy the increasing demand for
upscale residential and commercial properties.

Golf Course Extension Road enjoys excellent connectivity to adjacent urban areas
and important hubs. The distance of Sector 63A from prominent landmarks across
Delhi-NCR is as follows:

 Sector 55 – 56 Metro Station (Nearest Metro Station): ~ 5 Km

 DLF 5, One Horizon Centre, DLF Camellias: ~ 7 Km
 DLF Cyber City (CBD of Gurugram): ~ 13 km
 NH 48 (via Golf Course Road): ~ 13 km
 IGI Airport: ~ 24 km
 Connaught Place (CBD of Delhi): ~ 35 km

ARCP has a strong 9.1mn sft ongoing and upcoming project pipeline. During early
stressed years after the demerger, ARCP was focussing on plots and floors, but it
launched its marquee “Estate Residences” group housing with 1mn sft saleable
area (GDV of Rs18bn+) in Jan-2024 which are already fully booked. With the land
parcels that ARCP has, we believe that they should be able to launch 4 such
projects over the next 3 years. We tabulate key planned launches below.

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 Anant Raj

Exhibit 13: ARCP’s ongoing and upcoming launch pipeline

Projects Launch Date Completion Date Total Saleable Area (msf)
Sector 63A, Gurugram - Residential (Ongoing):
Anant Raj Estate – Plots and Villas Mar-23 Dec-26 0.67
Ashok Estate Jul-22 Dec-25 1.34
Avarna Independent Floors (Also referred as
Mar-20 Dec-27 1.85
Birla Estates, Birla Navya, Birla Avarna)
Anant Raj Estate GH-1, The Estate Residences Jan-24 Jun-28 1
Sector 63A, Gurugram - Residential (Planned):
Anant Raj Estate Floors 1 Jun-24 Jun-27 0.4
Anant Raj Estate Floors 2 Nov-24 Nov-27 0.4
Anant Raj Estate GH-2 Jul-24 Jun-28 1.09
Anant Raj Estate GH-3 Jul-25 Jun-29 1.09
Others – Residential:
Anant Raj Ashray 2, Tirupati Nov-23 Jun-27 1.22
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

 Key ARCP projects in Gurugram

 Anant Raj Estate
Township project comprising Plots/Villas/Independent Floors and Community sites.
First phase of independent floors is completed and handed over and second phase
construction will commence shortly. This phase has a revenue potential of Rs15bn.

 Ashok Estate
Completely sold out plotted development with sizes up to 180 sq. yards, total
inventory of 320 units in this project. Since its launch in July-2022, it has seen a
price appreciation of over 60%. Rs4bn from sold inventory will be realised in FY25..

 Avarna Independent Floors (Birla Navya)

It is a 50:50 JV with Birla Estates for development of 764 luxury floors built over 47
acres and launched across 4 phases. First three phases with 554 units are fully sold
out and the last phase will be launched in 1HFY25. ARCP’s share of profit is
Rs10bn.

 Group Housing projects

ARCP kicked off its Group Housing (GH) plans with the launch of Estate Residences
in Q4FY24 with a saleable area of 1mn sft and revenue potential of Rs18bn. It has
248 premium units of 4 and 5BHK apartments overseeing Aravalli hills on one side
and the city of Gurugram on the other. It was fully sold out in Q4FY24 itself.

We believe ARCP will launch 4 more such projects and with the optionality to add
more land parcels, further development cannot be ruled out.

Group Housings 2 and 3 with 1.1mn sft each and revenue potentials of Rs21bn and
Rs25bn will be launched in FY25 and FY26.

Apart from these projects in Gurugram, ARCP has also ventured in affordable
housing in Tirupati which was launched in Nov-2023 with available space of 1.22
mn sft and with a revenue potential of Rs3bn.

In FY24, ARCP’s pre-sales rose sharply to Rs28bn from Rs7bn in FY23, driven by the
newly launched Estate Residences (GH1) being fully booked in the same quarter of
launch, with revenue potential of Rs18bn. We expect ARCP’s pre-sales to rise from
Rs28bn in FY24 to Rs34bn in FY26.

Driven by new launches and strong bookings, collections also are expected to rise
from Rs9bn in FY24 to Rs26bn in FY26.

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 Anant Raj

Exhibit 14: Pre-sales to rise sharply driven by launches Exhibit 15: Strong collections to aid cashflows

Pre Sales (Rs bn) Collections (Rs bn)

40 50

40
30
30
20
20
10
10

0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

ARCP’s residential portfolio has a total revenue potential of Rs150bn, expected to

be completed by FY30. The net pre-tax cashflow from these projects is likely to be
above Rs110bn. We value ARCP’s residential portfolio using DCF (discount rate
12%).

We arrive at a residential NAV of Rs72bn (Rs211/share). We expect ARCP to

continue strengthening its land assets in Gurugram as these projects near
completion over the next 6 years.

ARCP has 88 acres of fully paid up, undeveloped land in Delhi as well. The company
awaits the notification of Delhi Master Plan and would likely develop the land for
warehousing, hospitality and residential projects. We ascribe a value of Rs25bn
(Rs74/share) to it.

7 | DAM CAPITAL 1 July 2024

 Anant Raj

The Pivot to Data Centers – Early mover advantage

 Huge runway for growth for Data Centers in an underpenetrated Indian
market
The Data Center (DC) sector has been a booming sector of real estate for the past
couple of years. The surge in technological space such as Artificial Intelligence and
Data centers are
Machine Learning and increase in internet consumption has increased the demand
the backbone of
for data centers globally. India, one of the largest consumers of internet, has
the digital age,
witnessed an exponential growth in the data center sector with an annual CAGR of
housing critical IT
29% from 2021 to 2023 and is one of the fastest growing data center markets in
infrastructure that
the APAC region and one of the top 15 countries of the world. The facilities such as
keeps businesses
constant power supply, affordable land rates, data center focused policies and
and organizations
incentives, and consistent surge in demand/consumption of internet and
running smoothly. technological services ensure a promising growth for the sector.

Exhibit 16: India Data Center Landscape

Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research

Mumbai facilitates 48% of the total capacity and is the largest city in the country to
run data centers of 462 MW. However, cities such as Chennai, NCR and Hyderabad
have picked up the pace to provide facilities and incentives for establishing data
centers. NCR (outskirts of its cities), Hyderabad and Chennai are witnessing a
steady rise in data center constructions by big giants of the data center industry as
well as new entrants due to ample availability of land parcels, data center-friendly
state-run policies along with no-disturbance zones and constant water and
electricity supply.

Data centers are the backbone of the digital age, housing critical IT infrastructure
that keeps businesses and organizations running smoothly. To ensure optimal
performance and security, data center operators and developers need to ensure
that they take into account various factors before establishing a data center to
safeguard the data centers from various risks and redundancies.

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 Anant Raj

Data center operators and developers should ensure that they implement:
 High speed internet connectivity, multiple internet service providers and a
secured network infrastructure;
 Robust physical security to prevent unauthorized entry, cyber security and
encryption of data security;
 Power redundancy through UPS and generators;
 Cooling redundancy with multiple systems regulating temperature and humidity;
 Network redundancy via various connections for uninterrupted data access and
 Comprehensive disaster recovery plans for swift recuperation from disruptions.

India’s Data Center capacity is expected to rise at 38% CAGR between 2023 to
2026.

Exhibit 17: India Data Center supply to rise at 38% CAGR Exhibit 18: Key players in India Data Center landscape

Operational Capacity (MW) New Supply (MW)

3000

2250

1500

750

0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research

The demand for data center has witnessed a significant growth over the last couple
of years, especially post Covid-19. This uptick in demand is primarily attributed to
the recent development in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, and the
widespread transition of 4G to 5G in India.
The transition of mobile networks from 4G to 5G has been huge and sudden. As per
the leading mobile operators, rollout of 5G across the country has occurred in less
than a year and has led to 100 million+ users within that time span, making it the
47th in mobile download speeds. This sudden growth is only going to further
increase as the conversion is out of the 600 million active smartphone users.
Increase in data volume would be supported by high growth in e-commerce
expansion, rising usage of social media, greater preference for ‘over the top’ (OTT)
platforms, government backing of the Digital India initiative, and the rapid adoption
of digital services, cloud computing boom across sectors. Further, data localization
norms initiated by the government and regulators mandates storage of sensitive
data within India, which, in turn, would support development of local data centers.

Major end uses of data centers are as below:

 Financial Institutions rely on data centers for secure storage of sensitive financial
information, transactions, and compliance with regulatory requirements.
 Hyperscalers such as Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Google
Cloud Platform, etc., offer cloud computing services that rely on massive data
centers to store and process customer data.
 E-commerce, digital media, streaming platforms, gaming platforms, and other
digital services generate massive amounts of data, requiring robust data centers
for storage, processing and delivering online services.
 Public institutions require data center to store citizen data, manage government
records, run e-governance initiatives, and ensure data security.

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 Anant Raj

 The healthcare sector generates substantial data through electronic health

records (EHRs), medical imaging, genomic research, and more, requiring secure
and compliant data storage facilities.
Home to many multinational corporations, NCR continues to see demand for data
centers. NCR has strong connectivity infrastructure, a well-connected fibre optic
network, and, reliable power supply that makes it attractive for data centers.

Exhibit 19: NCR capacity to rise at 39% CAGR Exhibit 20: Key data center players in NCR

Delhi NCR Operational Capacity (MW) New Supply (MW) Key Players in Delhi NCR (MW)
400 40

300 30

200 20

100 10

0 0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Yotta ST Telemdia Nxtra Sify

Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research Source: Cushman Wakefield, DAM Capital Research

 The Data Center Pivot by ARCP

ARCP has “pivoted” to the data center theme by a unique plan to retrofit its
commercial buildings (tech parks in three cities – Manesar, Rai and Panchkula) to
Data Center certified buildings. It’s Manesar facility has been certified by Tia-942 for
Tier-III Data Center infrastructure.
The company has a time and cost advantage over others who would venture to set
up a data center. As against the benchmark Rs550-600mn/MW construction costs,
ARCP can retrofit its current buildings at Rs260mn/MW and in much lesser time (6-
9 months) versus others (3-4 years). Timelines in a greenfield project may get
extended due to land approval and other delays, and ARCP has a clear lead with its
existing buildings and land parcels in the tech park premises for greenfield
expansion.
It has plans to add 307MW data center capacity across the three locations – with
buildings which can be taken to 157MW and land on the same premises for another
150MW greenfield expansion. It has started 6MW at Anant Raj Tech Mark, Manesar
and intends to take it to 21MW by Dec-2024 and 50MW by FY26.

Exhibit 21: ARCP Data Center Portfolio

Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

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 Anant Raj

It will add 7MW at Panchkula by Dec-2024 and it has land to add another 50MW,
greenfield. In Rai, it can add 100MW in existing building structure, and another
100MW greenfield center can be constructed on its land.

ARCP’s current customers are TCIL (Telecommunications Consultants India Limited)

and RailTel. With TCIL, the company is also exploring providing cloud services and is
working on a pilot project with 0.5MW. Management expects the revenue potential
to be ~4x of base colocation leasing currently.

The company has also signed an MoU with with Orange Business Services India
Technology Pvt. Ltd., a business services arm of Orange S.A., a global integrator of
Communications, products and services to (i) Design, Build and provide Operation
(Hardware & Software) services for ARC's Cloud Platform, (ii) establish servers for its
captive requirement at ARC Data Center; and (iii) support, promote and sell ARC
Colocation Data Center and Cloud Platform Services to its existing and future
Customers on terms and conditions mutually agreed. We expect that this should aid
the absorption of new capacity and also help in expanding the cloud footprint.

Exhibit 22: Operational data center in Manesar Exhibit 23: Operational data center in Manesar

Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

Lease rentals for ARCP’s data centers stand at Rs9mn/MW/month while operation
costs are in the range of Rs1.5-Rs1.8mn/MW/month. Given the lower cost of
construction, it is a high yielding business for ARCP (Rs86mn/MW annual EBITDA on
Rs260mn/ME capex).

We expect ARCP to reach 157MW capacity by FY28 and expect steady state EBITDA
of Rs13bn+ FY28 onwards. While the company has an option to add 150MW on top
of it via the greenfield route, we are not building it in yet. We ascribe a NAV of
Rs102bn to ARCP’s data center business.

Exhibit 24: We expect 157MW capacity by FY28 end Exhibit 25: Sharp jump in EBITDA as data center ramps up

Data Center Capacity (MW) Avg. Rented (MW) Data Center EBITDA (Rs bn)
180 15

135
10

90
5
45

0 0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

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 Anant Raj

Stable and growing leasing segment

Apart from the residential real estate, ARCP has a stable annuity portfolio in form of
hospitality, retail and office assets.

 Hospitality
ARCP is developing ARCP provides hotels, hospitality, convention and commercial facilities at multiple
a retail and office locations in New Delhi. Additionally, it has existing hotel projects in premium
space project ‘Ashok hospitality, banquet and convention districts of NCR. These projects include Hotel
Tower’ in Sector Bel-LA Monde and Hotel Stellar Resorts, which are presently being operated by third-
63A, Gurugram. parties on long-term leases.

Hotel Bel-LA Monde is operational with a Leasable area of 0.07mn sft and
generates a monthly rental income of Rs4.7mn. Further, due to increase in FSI, an
additional leasable area of 0.49 million square feet is also under development and
will consist of commercial properties which will be sold and a hotel and serviced
apartment property which will be leased out.

Hotel Stellar Resorts is operational with a Leasable area of 0.09mn sft, generating a
monthly rental income of Rs7.1mn. Further, an additional leasable area of 0.61mn
sft is also under development.

 Malls and Office spaces

ARCP’s mall and office space projects are located in the Delhi-NCR region. It is
currently developing Joy Square, strategically located in proximity to the Anant Raj
Estate Township in Sector 63A with a total leasable area of 0.32mn sft.

It has further developed a LEED certified Grade A office building in Sector 44,
Gurugram which is fully leased and operational with a Leasable area of 0.12mn sft
and it generates a monthly rental income of ₹12mn.

Anant Raj Tech Park in Panchkula currently has a Leasable area of 0.44mn sft and
generates a monthly rental income of Rs3.3mn.

In addition, Ashok Tower is a retail and office space project in Sector 63A with a
Leasable area of 0.16mn sft, which is expected to be completed by June, 2027.

Exhibit 26: ARCP’s commercial projects

Estimated Estimated Total Leasable Area Leased Area
Projects
Launch Completion (msf) (% of leasable area)
Sector 63A, Gurugram - Commercial (Ongoing):
Ashok Tower Mar-24 Jun-27 0.16
Others - Commercial:
Office Building, Sector-44, Gurugram Completed 0.12 100%
Tech Park, Panchkula Completed 0.44 28%
Others - Hotels and malls:
Anant Raj Center 1 (Earlier Hotel Bel La Monde),
Aug-23 Apr-28 0.56
Mehrauli, Delhi
Anant Raj Center 2 (Earlier Stellar Resort,) NH-8, Delhi Oct-24 Sep-29 0.7
Joy Square, Sector 63A, Gurugram Oct-17 Jun-24 0.32
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

We ascribe a NAV of Rs15bn to ARCP’s annuity business.

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 Anant Raj

Strong improvement in financial parameters

Driven by a significant jump in Data Center revenue in FY26 and the sustained
progress in launched projects, we expect ARCP to continue showing improved YoY
performance across all key parameters.

We expect revenue to rise at a CAGR of 35% from FY24 to FY26 and EBITDA to rise
at 65% CAGR in the same period. High margin data center business, coupled with
higher value add luxury residential projects, will see EBITDA margins rising from 23%
in FY24 to 34% in FY26.
Exhibit 27: Revenue to rise at 35% CAGR in FY24-26 Exhibit 28: EBITDA to rise at 65% CAGR in FY24-26

Revenue (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (RHS)

30 10.0 40%

7.5 30%
20

5.0 20%
10
2.5 10%

0 0.0 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

We expect residential operating cashflows to remain robust and support Data

Center capex going ahead. We see operating cashflows to rise to Rs17bn in FY26
from Rs4bn in FY24.
Exhibit 29: Collections to remain strong Exhibit 30: Data center capex funded by internal accruals

Collections (Rs bn) Residential OCF (Rs bn) Data Centre FCF (Rs bn)
50 40

40 30

30 20

20 10

10 0

0 -10
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

Exhibit 31: SOTP breakup

NAV (Rs mn) Per Share Comments
Residential 72,033 211 DCF till FY30 at 12% discount rate, no terminal value
Commercial 15,429 45 DCF till FY33 at 12% discount rate, terminal value at 9% cap rate for annuities
Data Centers 102,107 299 157MW forever, DCF till FY30 at 12% discount rate, terminal value for cashflows with 5% escalation
Land Bank 25,263 74 Market value of land parcels with 20% discount
GAV 214,832 628
Debt -2,900 -8 FY24 end net debt
NAV 211,932 620
CMP 443
Upside 40%
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research

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 Anant Raj

Exhibit 32: Peer comparison

CMP Mcap CAGR (FY24-FY26E %) PE (x) EV/E (x) ROE (%)
Name (Rs) (Rs bn) Revenue EBITDA EPS FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
Largecap
Dlf Ltd 825 2,043 19.4 36.5 23.6 60.2 49.0 63.6 51.7 8.4 9.6
Macrotech Develo 1,522 1,514 23.9 30.9 45.7 59.4 45.4 42.0 33.7 13.2 15.0
Godrej Propertie 3,162 879 35.6 LP 44.3 86.7 62.9 148.8 76.2 9.3 11.4
Oberoi Realty 1,775 645 28.7 28.9 21.6 28.5 22.7 21.2 16.4 14.9 16.7
Midcap
Phoenix Mills 3,571 638 12.3 18.8 23.5 49.6 39.9 27.0 22.9 12.4 13.7
Sobha Ltd 1,909 184 31.8 91.2 246.0 51.9 31.6 28.3 19.5 12.7 18.3
Prestige Estates 1,840 738 30.0 27.4 2.0 71.4 51.6 25.5 20.3 8.7 11.3
Brigade Enterpri 1,352 313 11.7 23.3 34.2 55.5 41.4 23.4 19.2 14.0 16.8
Mahindra Lifespa 603 94 114.6 LP 56.1 70.1 54.6 NM 163.8 7.9 9.6
Anant Raj Ltd 444 152 34.8 64.7 60.6 42.4 21.2 32.6 16.7 9.3 16.3
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research, Bloomberg

 Key risks
 Any delays in launch of projects and a downside risk to pricing assumptions
would reduce the NAV values for residential projects.
 Slower than expected expansion of Data Center capacity

Key Management Personnel

Mr Amit Sarin, Managing Director
A commerce graduate from University of Delhi, Mr Sarin started his career with the
company in 1995 as Executive Director, Commercial. He has an experience of over
28 years in the real estate industry. He has been responsible for the overall
management of business and the corporate strategies of the Company

Mr Aman Sarin, Whole time Director and CEO

He has been associated with the Company for over 2 decades. Having Bachelor’s
Degree in Commerce, he has been credited for setting up internal system of the
Company in Sales and Marketing, Land Acquisition and Operations Management.
He has an experience of over 27 years in the real estate industry.

Mr Ashim Sarin, Whole time Director and COO

He has been associated with the Company for over 2 decades. He holds a Master’s
degree in Business Administration (MBA) from Switzerland. He manages the
construction and development of business, including operations of IT Parks, office
buildings, hospitality and other development projects. He has over two decades of
experience in the construction and development business.

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 Anant Raj

Income statement Key ratios

Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E Year to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net sales 4,619 9,569 14,833 18,598 26,944 EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 20.6 22.5 25.3 33.6
% growth 85.0 107.2 55.0 25.4 44.9 EBIT margin (%) 12.8 18.9 21.3 23.1 31.5
Operating expenses 3,860 7,599 11,495 13,896 17,891 PAT margin (%) 11.9 15.8 17.9 19.2 26.6
EBITDA 759 1,971 3,338 4,701 9,053 RoE (%) 2.1 5.5 8.1 9.3 16.3
% change 114.5 159.7 69.4 40.8 92.6 RoCE (%) 1.5 4.5 7.2 9.3 17.1
Other income 394 479 374 409 458 Gearing (x) 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Net interest cost 271 318 346 337 211 Net debt/ EBITDA (x) 12.4 5.1 0.9 0.3 (0.1)
Depreciation 167 165 181 415 576 FCF yield (%) 3.2 0.4 (0.4) 1.2 1.6
Pre-tax profit 715 1,967 3,186 4,359 8,724 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Deferred tax 0 0 0 0 0
Current tax 231 523 540 785 1,570 Valuations
Profit after tax 485 1,444 2,645 3,574 7,154
Year to 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Preference dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Reported EPS (Rs) 1.7 4.8 8.1 10.5 20.9
Minorities 16 21 (50) 0 0
Adj. EPS (Rs) 1.7 4.8 8.1 10.5 20.9
Adjusted net profit 549 1,511 2,659 3,574 7,154
PE (x) 39.1 25.5 38.4 42.4 21.2
Non-recurring items 0 0 0 0 0
Price/ Book (x) 0.8 1.3 2.8 3.8 3.2
Reported net profit 549 1,511 2,659 3,574 7,154
EV/ Net sales (x) 6.7 5.1 7.1 8.2 5.6
% change 415.5 175.3 76.0 34.4 100.2
EV/ EBITDA (x) 40.7 24.6 31.5 32.6 16.7
EV/ CE (x) 0.8 1.2 2.3 3.3 2.9
Balance sheet
As on 31 Mar (Rs m) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Paid-up capital 590 648 684 684 684 Shareholding pattern
Preference capital 0 0 0 0 0
Reserves & surplus 26,154 27,935 36,162 39,736 46,890
Shareholders' equity 26,744 28,583 36,845 40,420 47,573
Total current liabilities 5,477 1,753 3,049 3,225 3,481
Total debt 9,681 10,795 6,267 3,367 2,667
Deferred tax liabilities 251 374 512 512 512
Other non-current
1,696 2,062 2,008 2,023 2,040
liabilities
Total liabilities 17,106 14,983 11,837 9,127 8,701
Total equity &
43,850 43,566 48,683 49,547 56,275
liabilities
Net fixed assets 13,576 13,238 13,353 18,173 23,097
Investments 4,602 4,603 3,018 3,018 3,018
Cash 308 691 3,212 1,830 3,316
Other current assets 21,233 21,083 24,168 21,594 21,912
Deferred tax assets 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current
4,130 3,951 4,931 4,931 4,931
assets
Net working capital 16,064 20,021 24,331 20,199 21,747
Total assets 43,850 43,566 48,683 49,547 56,275
As of Mar-24
Cash flow
Year to 31 Mar (Rs m) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E
Pre-tax profit 715 1,967 3,186 4,359 8,724
Depreciation 167 165 181 415 576
Chg in Working capital 2,859 (3,561) (2,489) 2,740 (57)
Total tax paid (231) (523) (540) (785) (1,570)
Net Interest 271 318 346 337 211
Others 361 1,799 (664) 0 0
Operating cash flow 4,233 329 (255) 7,090 7,897
Capital expenditure 422 173 (296) (5,235) (5,500)
Free cash flow (a+b) 4,655 502 (551) 1,855 2,397
Chg in investments (377) 0 1,584 0 0
Debt raised/(repaid) (5,305) 1,113 (4,527) (2,900) (700)
Net interest (271) (318) (346) (337) (211)
Capital raised/(repaid) 1,396 1,860 8,313 0 0
Dividend (incl. tax) (30) (35) (162) 0 0
Other items (387) (2,579) (2,171) 0 0
Net chg in cash (42) 188 2,609 (1,383) 1,486

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 Anant Raj

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16 | DAM CAPITAL 1 July 2024

 Anant Raj

Disclaimer
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17 | DAM CAPITAL 1 July 2024

 Anant Raj

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18 | DAM CAPITAL 1 July 2024