The recent advances in aggression by China toward Taiwan have put the National

Security Council in a situation where action will be inevitable, and some decisions must be made

to determine how to protect Taiwan. The threat of open conflict has always loomed large over the

South China Sea. China will always see Taiwan as its own, and eventually, they will attempt to

reunify Taiwan with the mainland. Conflict, unfortunately, seems inevitable, yet the question is

the extent of the conflict and where the fighting belongs. The use of the United States military to

defend Taiwan is an unavoidable future; however, defending Taiwan may not be enough to

ensure that Taiwan has a viable future. The use of the military to show force against China may

be necessary to stop China from continuing to show aggression toward Taiwan.

Taiwan has many benefits that China feels it rightfully deserves first off, the CCP sees

Taiwan as a necessary step in creating the whole unified China. Taiwan also offers strategic and

economic benefits that China wishes to use in order to continue its growth in the region. Due to

the location of Taiwan, China wishes to use the island as another base of operation in controlling

the South Pacific region. Taiwan is one of the most technologically advanced nations in the

world, and thus, they are a large producer of semiconductors along with electronics, car parts,

and military technology. China sees these industries as their own provocative to create a stronger

economic hold in the region and the world. China and the CCP are always looking to ensure the

growth of China, and Taiwan is seen as an economic zone that can be used to gain even more

hold in the high-tech field. Given this, it seems that China will eventually take the next step to

reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The steps China will take will not be through democratic

principles but rather through the force of the military. This will mean the United States will be

forced to decide on whether or not to defend Taiwan.

ripple across the globe. It would stress relations among major powers, notably between the U.S.

and China, and could also lead to a divide akin to a new Cold War, wherein nations remained

aligned with either party. This would invariably corrupt values within the circles of international

institutions and norms, such as sovereignty and self-determination, whence regional and global

order would be shaken. Economically, Taiwan plays a critical role in global semiconductor

production, and any disruption would very well self-inflict huge pain on the supply chain of

sectors such as technology, resulting in shortages, inflation, and poor growth everywhere. A

military conflict in the region could draw tensions elsewhere across the South China Sea,

jeopardizing crucial shipping lanes and a crippling slowing of global trade. A conflict would

immediately usher in an arms race in the region; a general escalation of military activities at

generally unprovoked levels in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. and its allies might find themselves

drawn into a direct military confrontation with China, raising the specter of long-term instability,

cyber warfare, and the specter of nuclear escalation, an overview of insecurity across our region

and the world.

As the Department of Defense, the military will need to be involved in any policy choices

made. I believe that the military needs to be the first line of defense for Taiwan. China will only

respond to military action, and economic sanctions will not be perceived in the same manner as

military action. The first steps that need to be taken in order to protect our ally in Taiwan are to

move carrier groups into the South China Sea, which will most likely prompt China to launch an

attack against Taiwan. This is why the carrier groups are essential, as they will be needed to

defend Taiwan from a potential large ballistic missile attack. No matter what happens with the

initial attack, the United States needs to ensure that there is no ability for China to launch an
invasion against Taiwan. Taiwan will not be able to survive a land invasion from a full force of

China. This is where the United States could be dragged into a long conflict with China. In a

perfect world, there would be a quick exchange of fighting, and the sides would reach an

agreement. However, in reality, the two sides will be locked into a long war, with the United

States being a massive defense force around Taiwan. However, it is essential for the United

States to defend Taiwan. With Russia attempting to flex its muscles in Ukraine, we cannot let

China take this as an opportunity to attack Taiwan. It may eventually come to a point where the

USA will be forced to put boots on the ground to counter the advances of China. If a conflict

reaches this level, the USA will need to put a fighting force on the ground, as we cannot let

China impose its opinions on the world. If China takes Taiwan, it will then immediately take a

look at other opportunities to expand its influence. All in all, if it is determined that there is no

stopping China through conventional means, then the United States military must prepare to take

all the necessary steps to ensure the survival and prosperity of Taiwan.

Such reactions would result from the choice made to utilize military force primarily for

the defense of Taiwan, provoking both domestic and international outrage. In the short term, the

projected move of U.S. carrier battle groups into the South China Sea would send a clear

deterrent signal, yet this risked an immediate escalation of tensions, raising the possibility of

armed confrontation with China. While the U.S. deployment would serve to prevent an invasion

of Taiwan for the moment, this position of confrontation could actually provoke a pre-emptive

strike by China, thus rendering war a probable response instead of avertable. While the

immediate response from allies in the region—say Japan and South Korea—could be supportive,

it would also raise concerns about regional instability, economic disruption, and distress during

the ensuing time. Domestically, however, there would be debate over the extent of the risks of
warring with a nuclear power like China and worries that U.S. lives and resources would get

sucked into some long-term conflict.

In the long run, this military-first strategy could lead to protracted warfare that would,

like previous engagements in Iraq or Afghanistan, sap U.S. economic and military resources.

Such protracted conflict could strain alliances, bring global trade routes to a standstill, and result

in unbounded defense spending that will take away from domestic programs. Such a conflict

with China, particularly one that involves boots on the ground, will entail a great human cost and

quite possibly upset the order not just in the Indo-Pacific region but also on a global scale.

Alternatively, not standing up to China fuels the sense of confidence that it can further expand in

the South China Sea or look elsewhere, posing a long-term threat that would shut the door on

U.S. influence and global stability. Even so, in the short term, interventions with military forces

appear as urgent recommendations to defend Taiwan, but on the long-term horizon, it could be an

almost endless costly war that in itself will dramatically alter the status quo regarding power

relations in the world. The downside might include economic straitening, human sacrifices,

global instability, and the challenge of securing backing for military campaigns, whether at home

or abroad, when they turn into extended engagements. Judicious balancing of these risks against

the aim to defend Taiwan is not easy, and consideration of these consequences should be made

deliberate with an eye on both the short and long terms.