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2/22/17
Exchange Rates
o Bid and Ask Prices
o When travelers or businesses contact a bank to buy and sell currency,
they find a bid price and asked price
o Ask = seller price
o Bid = Buyer price
o Difference is the spread
o Market makers get the best price, like big banks and forex traders
o The more casual and small your exchange, the worse the price
Euro Countries
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
The rest of them typically have first 2 letters in the country’s name followed by the
first letter of the currency name
Forex Worksheet
Translation Risks
o Occurs when companies list foreign assets on their balance sheets
o Values can change rapidly
o Profits shrink if a currency becomes stronger relative to your own
Transaction Risks
o Time delay between entering a contract and settling it
o The rate may change during this delay
o Most transactions are less than 2 year forward contracts
Economic Risks
o Changes in exchange rates
o Government regulation or political stability/instability
o War and other macroeconomic conditions
What is a Spot Rate?
o The value of an asset at the moment of the quote
What is a spread?
o The price between where a trader may purchase (bid) or sell (ask)
What is a forward rate?
o The exchange rate at a future date
o The bank will determine this
How to Figure out when something is a premium and discount
o If the spot rate is greater than the forward rate, then the currency is at
a premium
o 1 USD = .6 GBP is spot = 1.66 USD = 1 GBP
o 1 USD = .55 GBP is forward rate = 1.82 USD = 1 GBP
o Therefore, in the future it will take more USD to get 1 GBP, meaning
that it is at premium. The opposite of this will be a discount
What is a Hard Currency?
o Not likely to fluctuate in value, not very volatile
o Safe haven, strong currency
o USD, JPY, EUR, GBP
Fixed Exchange Rate Benefits
o Avoid currency flux
o Stability
o Removes foreign exchange risk
o Low inflation
Non-Convertible Currency
o Service international debt
o The government keeps its wealth within the country, thus limiting
capital flight
o Make international purchases
o Shield from imports
Floating
o Controlled by supply and demand; variable
o The government focus on managing the economy, does not intervene
with exchange rates
o The rate changes every time there is a transaction in the FOREX
market. It’s responding to supply and demand
Fixed/Pegged
o The value stays the same over time and is issued by the government
o The government plays the primary role. It sets the exchange rate and
manages the economy to support the rate
o The rate is supposed to be steady over a long period of time. The
government chooses when to revise it
Crawling Peg
o The government issued the rate, and it starts at a high value or low
value, and “crawls” up to the other end of the spectrum over time
o Government plays the primary role
o Government revises it when they want
Managed Float/Dirty Exchange
o This is determined by both the government and the supply and
demand of the FOREX market. It floats, but it has to stay within a
range, otherwise the government intervenes
o Government will keep it within the range if a destabilizing event
occurs by buying and selling currency
o The rate changes as currencies are sold in the FOREX market,
responding to supply and demand
Math Problem 1: Solving how much you must save based on a forward rate
o You cannot know what the exchange rate will be in 3 months time
o Multiply the payment by the forward rate, and that is the amount that
you must save over time
o APR Equation
FV = PV(1 + APR/(months/12))
Put above equation into my calculator
Math Problem 2: Solving values of currency based on the current spot rate
o You cannot predict a future exchange/spot rate
o Set APR equations equal to each other and solve for the value of the
currency you’re looking for
o Example
8000 IDR(1 + %/(months/12)) = 1 USD(1 + %/(months/12))
1 USD is X because it’s what we’re comparing
2/27/17
Convertibility
Types
o Freely convertible, no restrictions
o Externally convertible, non-residents can convert
o Non convertible, no one can convert
Why?
o To preserve foreign exchange reserves
o Services international debt
o Allows governments to have funds to make imports
o Government is afraid of capital flight
This is a political as well as an economic decision
Many countries have some kind of restrictions
o It’s rare to have full convertibility without restrictions
Fixed/pegged
Why supposedly so great?
o Eliminates foreign exchange risk
o Alternatives allow governments to skew country competitiveness by
encouraging currency wars and competitive devaluations to spur jobs
and exports
Crawling/Adjustable Peg
o The rate is revalued/devalued at regular intervals to align with
fundamentals
Managed (Dirty) Float
o Governments intervene in the currency markets as they perceive their
national interests
o How can governments intervene in currency markets?
o Nations may explain their interventions in terms of “smoothing
market irregularities” or “assuring orderly markets”
Free Float
o Closest approach to perfect competition
o Aggregate supply and demand for currency affects exchange rates, not
government intervention
o Equilibrium follows from overall macroeconomic indicators
o Governments focus more on interest rates and fiscal policy
Bretton Woods
In 1944, Allied powers met at Bretton Woods, NH to plan for the future
Consensus
o Stable exchange rates are desirable
o Floating or fluctuating exchange rates had proved unsatisfactory
o The government controls of trade, exchange and production that had
developed through WWll were wasteful and discriminatory
The IMF was Established
o International Monetary Fund
o From 1945-1971, IMF agreement was the basis of the international
monetary system
o The US dollar was agreed to be the central reserve asset
o An ounce of gold was agreed to be worth 35 USD
o Other nations fixed their exchange rates to the dollar
Original Role of the IMF
o Discipline
National governments had to manage inflation through their
money supply
Excessive drawing from IMF funds came with IMF supervision
of monetary and fiscal policies
o Flexibility
Provides loans to help members states with temporary BOP
deficit
Allows time to bring down inflation
Relieves pressures to devalue
Members allowed 10% devaluations and more with IMF
approval
Challenges to the Bretton Woods System
o From 1958 to 1971, United States cumulative deficit was $56 billion
o Due to
Vietnam War
Financed partly by use of the U.S. gold reserves
Financed party by incurring liabilities to foreign central banks
o By 1971, many more dollars were in the hands of foreign central
banks than the gold held by the US treasury
Pros
o Gold is very portable
o The first period of the gold standard trade coincided with great
increase in volume of world trade
Was there a connection?
Cons
o Pegging currency to gold not sanctioned by IMF
o Would it create stability?
o Why gold in the first place?
Role
o Refinanced post-WWII reconstruction and development
o Provides low interest long term loans to developing economies
The International Development Agency (IDA) was created in 1960
o Raises funds from member states
o Loans only to the poorest countries
o 50 year repayment at 1% per year interest
Issues related to the World Bank
o Voting power
o Accountability
Currencies in Crisis
Currencies in Crisis
We will watch portions of PBS' Commanding Heights series, which was produced and based off a book of
the same name written by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw. The book and this production examine the
history of thought about how governments (or whether governments) should control the macroeconomic
environment; questions about globalization and trade are naturally examined within this sphere of inquiry.
The video will start immediately at the beginning of class so we can get through it all. Here are some
questions to ponder as you watch the film and some things to look out for:
We discussed the benefits that flow from FDI investments. Pay attention to the vignettes about the massive
human migration in China. How does the rural schoolteacher's life change when he moves from the
countryside to a factory job in coastal China?
Pay attention to the income difference he reports and his new living and working conditions. Note: The
current exchange rate between the RMB (aka CNY) is 6.75 RMB = 1 USD.
What were the causes of the Asian Financial Crisis? Did the U.S. play any role in the Asian Financial
Crisis? If so, how or why? What about other Western countries?
What roles if any did FX traders play in the crisis? When a currency collapses what does that mean for
citizens of that nation? How are businesses forced to cope? When the Asian Financial Crisis reached the
U.S. back in 1998, what was the response of U.S. policy makers towards bailouts for private banks?
Are there similarities between the Asian Financial Crisis and the Great Recession we have just emerged
from in the U.S.? Did we set new policy precedents? If so, what?
Have there been serious reforms to the frameworks and “rules of the game” since the late 1990’s? Having
seen these crises, what do you feel about the IMF in terms of its role in creating a "moral hazard"?
Do you think government bailouts of their internal economies also serve as a source of "moral hazard"?
Based on this video, what should nations be doing now to lessen the chance for similar crises? Do
governments have incentives to move “markets” in only one way? In other words, do politicians have many
incentives to control bubbles when times are good?
Foreign Currency Issues
Managing foreign exchange rate risk
Review basics
Calculating the forward rate
Other hedging tools
Lead/lag strategies
Types of foreign exchange exposure
Time for questions
Exchange Rate Basics
Determinants of exchange rates
Currency classification by mobility/liquidity
o Hard currencies
Currencies of major industrial countries that can
be easily traded
o Soft (lesser traded) currencies
Officially tradable currencies, but are often illiquid
and difficult to trade
o Non-tradable currencies
Restricted by their governments
Forward Exchange Rates
Trading at a premium
o When a currency’s forward rate is stronger than spot
(versus the other currency)
Trading at a discount
o When a currency’s forward rate is weaker than spot
(versus the other currency)
One currency is always trading at a discount and the other at
a premium in the forward market, unless there is absolutely
no difference in the forward market than the spot rate
The cost of a forward contract is the premium or discount
compared to the spot rate
Forward rate often quoted as change in forward points or
“pips”
o Example
Spot Rate 1 EUR = 1.4000
3 month forward rate: + .0002
Same as 3 month forward rate 1 EUR = 1.4002
Forward rates fluctuate with spot rate movements/market
information until the moment they are purchased, then that
price becomes binding as a contract die on the expiration
date
Interest Rates and Exchange Rated
Fisher effect: i = r + I
o Nominal (market) interest rate in a nation = the real
rate of interest + expectations about inflation
International fisher effect
o For any two countries, the spot exchange rate and
future exchange rate should change in an equal
amount, but in the opposite direction, to the difference
in nominal interest rates between the two countries
Forward Foreign Exchange Contract Price Using International
Fisher Effect
Spot exchange rate USD 1 = 40 INR
US annual interest rate: 4
India Annual interest rate: 6
o What will be the price of a 3-month forward foreign
exchange contract?
Other Strategies
Foreign currency options
o Provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a
specific amount of a currency at a specified price at any
time prior to a specific date
Purchaser is charged a premium
Exercise price (strike price)
o Currency futures contracts
Fixed amounts and maturities
o Netting
Lead and Lag Strategies
Lead strategy
o Pay bills due in foreign currency receivables sooner
when the foreign currency is expected to depreciate
(home currency expected to appreciate)
Lag strategy
o Delay payments due in foreign currency when home
currency is expected to appreciate (foreign currency is
expected to depreciate)
o Try to delay incoming foreign receipts when that
currency is expected to appreciate (home currency
expected to depreciate)
Types of Foreign Exchange Exposure
Transaction
o The extent to which income from individual transactions
is affected by fluctuations in foreign exchange
Translation
o The extent to which the reported consolidated results
and balance sheets of a corporation are affected by
fluctuations in foreign exchange values
Economic
o The extent to which a firm’s future international earning
power (or costs) affected by changes in exchange rates
CULTURE
Intercultural Communication
Strategies for Better Intercultural Experiences
More time listening
Allow for pauses and silence
Allow speakers to finish his/her thoughts and avoid
interjection
Recognize the speaker may have difficulty being fluent
Keep context and non-verbals in mind
Avoid yes and no questions
Restate key messages using different words and phrases
(over-communication)
Learner Outcomes
Basic questions
3. Cons
Cultural myopia
Immigration barriers
Costly
Polycentric: key overseas positions staffed by local managers 1.
Multidomestic 2. Pros
Inexpensive to implement
3. Cons
Uses HR efficiently
Cons
Costly
d.
Expatriate Assignments
Japanese MNCs
Othersorientation
Perceptual ability
Cultural toughness
Language ability
Family situation
Cultural training
Language training
Practical training
2. 3.
How are relationships, networks and trust established where you will
be? May need to seek appropriate fringe benefits
Performance appraisal
1.
2.
b.
Day 1
Skills: style switching, building trust and relationships, drawing out, “over
communicating” and obtaining info
Case study
Day2
International Management
Factors such as work task variety, stability, pay, flexibility in hours, autonomy,
advancement opportunities, etc. vary in importance
Examples:
Deloitte in India
a. Kohler in India
Outsourcing
Video