Daily Commentary

Content
01 02

Summary Instrument outlook

Market summary DXY (US Dollar Index)

Economic calendar - Previous XAUUSD (Gold - US Dollar)

Economic calendar - Today EURUSD (Euro - US Dollar)

GBPUSD (UK Pound - US Dollar)

USDJPY (US Dollar - JP Yen)

USTEC (Nasdaq100)

USOIL (WTI Crude Oil)

BTCUSD (Bitcoin - US Dollar)

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 Daily Commentary

Market summary
Daily performance

US500 USTEC DXY XAUUSD USOIL

-0.42% -0.55% 0.19% -0.67% -2.12%

EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY AUDUSD BTCUSD

-0.31% -0.05% -0.20% -0.03% -2.15%

Source: 30 Jul 2024

Market overview

Japan
Japan's labor market remains BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is set
tight, with the unemployment to reveal crucial policy decisions
rate falling to 2.5% in Jun and that could include a potential
notable workforce increases, rate hike and adjustments to
especially among women. quantitative tightening. With the
market generally anticipating a
Wage growth is robust due to
reduction in the BoJ's bond
severe labor shortages, with
purchases, attention will now
workers receiving over 5% pay
shift to interest rate policy.
increment. The job-to-applicant
ratio has dropped to its lowest The yen has fluctuated notably,
since Mar 2022, underscoring reflecting market speculation
ongoing hiring challenges. about narrowing interest rate
differentials between Japan and
Rising wages and record
its major peers. A potential rate
minimum wage hikes may boost
hike could further support the
consumption and contribute to
yen's rebound.
sustained inflation.
 Daily Commentary

Economic calendar - Previous

Monday, 29 July 2024

GMT Unit Event Actual Forecast Previous

No events scheduled
Source: www.investing.com, 30 Jul 2024
 Daily Commentary

Economic calendar - Today

Tuesday, 30 July 2024

GMT Unit Event Forecast Previous

1:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) -2.30% 5.50%

7:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (Jul) 102.6 102.7

8:00 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.10% 0.20%

8:00 EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.00% -0.20%

9:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.20% 0.30%

9:00 EUR GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.60% 0.40%

12:00 EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.10%

12:00 EUR German CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.20% 2.20%

13:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (May) 1.40%

13:00 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May) 7.40% 7.20%

14:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) 99.8 100.4

14:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) 8.030M 8.140M

20:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -3.900M

23:50 JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) -4.20% 3.60%

Source: www.investing.com, 30 Jul 2024
 Daily Commentary

Dollar Index Outlook

⬤
R1
104.80
R2
105.15

(DXY) Close

104.54
S1

104.40
S2

104.10

Fundamental Technical

According to the Texas DXY broke the previous swing

Manufacturing Outlook survey, high after bouncing from 104.10.
general business activities fell to The index fluctuated along the
-17.5 (prev. -15.1), showing weaker converging EMAs, indicating a
overall activity than the previous sideways movement with bullish
month. potential.
Today's Jul CB consumer Golden-crossed EMAs may
confidence data is expected to indicate its potential shift to an
fall to 99.8 (prev. 100.4), uptrend before a continuation.
indicating that consumer
Conversely, if DXY retraces before
spending could be weaker,
its upward continuation, the
softening the inflation pressure.
index may return to 104.40.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Gold - Dollar Outlook

▼
R1
2400
R2
2430

(XAUUSD) Close

2381
S1

2334
S2

2300

Fundamental Technical

Gold prices were steady ahead XAUUSD formed a lower high and
of key economic news. Investors closed below EMA21 after
are waiting for the JOLTS job retesting EMA78. The formation
openings report today, the ISM confirms a downtrend
manufacturing index on continuation.
Thursday, and the employment
If XAUUSD breaks the ascending
report on Friday. The Fed is likely
support, the price could target
to hold interest rates this week.
2300, the Megaphone pattern's
Moreover, renewed geopolitical lower bound.
tensions in the Middle East have
Conversely, XAUUSD may retest
boosted the appeal of the safe
the ascending line to indicate a
haven. Softer economic data
recovery.
could push gold prices upward.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Euro - Dollar Outlook

▼
R1
1.0826
R2
1.0845

(EURUSD) Close

1.0820
S1

1.0800
S2

1.0750

Fundamental Technical

The eurozone's 2Q preliminary EURUSD failed to return above its

GDP is expected to hike to 0.6% resistance at 1.0866 and closed
YoY (prev. 0.4%) but fall to 0.2% below both EMAs, indicating a
QoQ (prev. 0.3%). shift to a downward structure.
Besides, the market anticipates If EURUSD bounces from the
Germany's preliminary Jul CPI 1.0800-1.0805 area, the price may
stay at 2.2% YoY and rise to 0.2% retest its resistance at 1.0826 or
MoM (prev. 0.1%), showing the further at 1.0845 before resuming
inflation stall and weighing on a downtrend.
the next rate cut decision. If the
However, if EURUSD fails to
number weakens, it could urge
sustain above 1.0800, the price
the ECB to cut the rate soon,
may test the 1.0750 support.
weakening the euro.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Pound - Dollar Outlook

⬤
R1
1.2900
R2
1.2950

(GBPUSD) Close

1.2860
S1

1.2845
S2

1.2800

Fundamental Technical

The pound remained steady as GBPUSD broke 1.2845 and

markets brace for rate decisions retested its support around
from the Fed and BoE. 1.2800 before bouncing up. The
price is testing its descending
The Fed is expected to hold rates
trendline, coinciding with EMA21.
on Wednesday, while the BoE is
anticipated to deliver a 0.25% cut If GBPUSD closes above 1.2900,
on Thursday, with a narrow 5-4 the price may reverse, aiming for
vote expected. nearby resistance at 1.2950.
The pound risks a sharp retreat if Conversely, if GBPUSD closes
the BoE lowers rates as below 1.2845, the price may
anticipated. retest its last swing low at 1.2800.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Dollar - Yen Outlook

▼
R1
154.00
R2
155.00

(USDJPY) Close

153.84
S1

153.00
S2

152.00

Fundamental Technical

The yen traded sideways ahead USDJPY reentered the 153.00-

of the BoJ meeting. A rate hike to 154.00 range after recovering to
0.1% is anticipated amid retest EMA21. As momentum
persistent headline inflation at recedes, the price has not shown
2.8% YoY in Jun and a rise in core any significant moves.
inflation to 2.6% YoY from 2.5%.
If USDJPY returns above 154.00
Additionally, market participants and EMA21, the price may test
expect a gradual tapering of 155.00, indicating a trend change.
government bond purchases
On the contrary, USDJPY could
from six tln yen across multiple
retest 153.00 if the price returns to
stages to mitigate unexpected
the range's lower bound.
bond yield spikes. The outlook for
yen is positive.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Nasdaq 100 Outlook

▼
R1
19250
R2
19500

(USTEC) Close

19006
S1

19000
S2

18750

Fundamental Technical

The index consolidated as the USTEC remains under pressure

market pending key earnings following a retest of 19250 and
reports from Microsoft (MSFT), EMA21. The index is approaching
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), 19000 without any recovery sign,
and Starbucks (SBUX) today. potentially forming a range.
Strong growth is expected, but If USTEC returns below 19000, the
markets are cautiously optimistic index may test 18750 and
about increased AI expenditure consolidate within the
and its impact on earnings, as AI 18750-19250 range.
spending and sluggish revenue
Conversely, USTEC may retest
metrics soured strong earnings
19500 if the price closes above
last week, causing the tech
19250.
sector to tumble.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

WTI Crude Oil Outlook

▼
R1
76.80
R2
78.20

(USOIL) Close

75.20
S1

75.00
S2

72.50

Fundamental Technical

Oil prices remained weak amid USOIL sustained its downtrend

doubts about global demand, and fell to 75.20. EMA21 is
with investors awaiting the diverging away from EMA78,
outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting. indicating a strengthening
bearish momentum.
The oil recovery remains
uncertain due to China's weak If USOIL closes below 75.00 and
demand narrative, which has the trendline, the price may
reduced oil imports. However, extend its plunge to 72.50.
escalated geopolitical tensions
Conversely, if USOIL breaches the
have supported oil prices.
resistance at 76.80, the price
The outlook for oil prices remains may gain upward momentum
mixed. toward 78.20.

Bullish Neutral Bearish

 Daily Commentary

Bitcoin - Dollar Outlook

⬤
R1
68000
R2
72000

(BTCUSD) Close

66550
S1

65000
S2

62700

Fundamental Technical

Bitcoin balance on exchanges BTCUSD failed to hold above

has not changed significantly EMA21 and dropped to 66550.
since last week despite the flow However, the price maintains a
dynamics and accelerating positive trend within the channel
accumulations by investors. while holding above EMA78.
Investments in spot bitcoin ETFs If BTCUSD fails to hold above the
have also slowed, with channel's lower bound, the price
aggregate outflows from FBTC may fall further to 65000.
and BITB of over 25 mln USD.
Conversely, if BTCUSD bounces to
The potential for a continuation 68000 while staying within the
of the bull run exists, pending a channel, the price could gain
catalyst. upward momentum to 72000.

Bullish Neutral Bearish