Public vs Private Markets: Convergence Trends
Public vs Private Markets: Convergence Trends
November 2024
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1. Public and private markets are converging, liquidity in public and private
credit markets is converging.
4
US: 86% of firms with revenues greater than $100 million are private
Share of public and private companies in the US, with revenue greater than $100mn
14%
86%
Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist 5
Share of US companies with revenue greater than $100 million
Private (100 to 499mn) Private (500mn to 1bn) Private (Greater than 1bn)
Public (100 to 499mn) Public (500mn to 1bn) Public (Greater than 1bn)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Share of public vs private companies in Europe, with revenue greater than $100mn
4%
96%
Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. 7
Asia: 87% of firms with revenues greater than $100 million are private
Share of public vs private companies in Asia, with revenue greater than $100mn
13%
87%
Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. 8
Number of publicly listed companies in the US have declined from 8000 to 4000
Number
Number of publicly listed companies in the US Number
8500 8500
8000 8000
7500 7500
7000 7000
6500 6500
6000 6000
5500 5500
5000 5000
4500 4500
4000 4000
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Source: World Bank, WFE, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 9
UK publicly listed companies
3300 3300
3100 3100
2900 2900
2700 2700
2500 2500
2300 2300
2100 2100
1900 1900
1700 1700
1500 1500
750 750
700 700
650 650
600 600
550 550
500 500
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Total US IPOs
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Count
Dec-23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
12
Less and less liquidity in public bond markets
$ trn Total stock of US corporate bonds outstanding Primary dealer inventory of corporate bonds (RHS) $ bn
11 300
10
250
9
8
200
7
6 150
5
100
4
3
50
2
1 0
Jul-01
Mar-02
Jul-03
Mar-04
Jul-05
Mar-06
Jul-07
Mar-08
Jul-09
Mar-10
Jul-11
Mar-12
Jul-13
Mar-14
Jul-15
Mar-16
Jul-17
Mar-18
Jul-19
Mar-20
Jul-21
Mar-22
Jul-23
Mar-24
Nov-02
Nov-04
Nov-06
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-12
Nov-14
Nov-16
Nov-18
Nov-20
Nov-22
Source: FRBNY, ICE BofA, Haver Analytics. Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 13
Private credit share of US corporate debt outstanding
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0% 1.7%
1.0%
0.0%
2003 2023
Source: Preqin, ICE BofA, PitchBook LCD, FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: US debt outstanding includes US IG and HY corporate bond market value outstanding, leveraged loans market value outstanding, US private credit AUM and US bank
lending to corporates. 14
Private equity share of total US equity market
8%
6%
3.8%
4%
2%
0%
2003 2023
Source: Preqin, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Total equity market includes market value of US stock market and US Private equity AUM 15
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some equity investments are
safe, and some equity
investments are risky
16
The share of Russell 2000 companies with negative earnings continues to rise
% Percentage of companies in Russell 2000 with negative earnings (12-month trailing EPS) %
50 50
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-24
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 17
Small cap, mid cap, and large cap: Percentage of companies with negative earnings
% %
45% 42% 45%
40% 40%
35% 35%
30% 30%
25% 25%
20% 20%
10% 10%
6%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Russell 2000 Index Russell Midcap Index S&P 500 Index
90%
80%
45.0%
70%
69.3%
60%
2.2%
50%
40%
30%
6.5% 52.7%
20%
10% 24.2%
0%
S&P 500 Russell 2000
Source: Bloomberg SRCH, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Includes bonds and loans (tranches) and excludes financials. 19
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some credit investments are
safe, and some credit
investments are risky
20
US IG yield around 5% and HY yield around 6.8%
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
33 33
28 28
23 23
18 18
13 13
8 8
3 3
1400 1400
1200 1200
1000 1000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 24
IG spreads by rating
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
BB B CCC
3000 3000
2500 2500
2000 2000
1500 1500
1000 1000
500 500
0 0
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 26
Most corporate bonds outstanding are rated either BBB or single-A
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Data as of 30th September 2024 27
IG market is nine times bigger than HY and nine times bigger than the loan market
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, PitchBook LCD, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Ticker used for HY is H0A0 Index and for IG it is C0A0 Index and for Loans it is SPBDALB Index. 28
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some sovereign investments
are safe, and some sovereign
investments are risky
29
Debt/GDP by jurisdiction
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘24e ‘25e ‘26e ‘27e % GDP Government debt (% GDP) % GDP
Germany
180 180
60 69 69 66 64 64 62 61 60
Germany Italy
UK 86 106 105 100 101 104 106 107 108 Forecast
160 Spain France 160
France 97 115 113 112 111 112 113 113 114
UK United States
Italy 134 155 147 140 137 139 140 143 143 Netherlands
140 140
Spain 98 120 117 112 107 106 105 105 105
Netherlands 49 55 52 50 47 48 48 49 50
120 120
Switzerland 40 43 41 38 38 37 36 34 33
Poland 46 57 54 49 51 55 58 60 61
100 100
Belgium 98 112 108 104 104 105 107 109 112
Sweden 36 40 36 33 36 36 35 34 33
80 80
Ireland 57 58 54 44 43 41 39 36 35
Norway 41 46 42 36 42 38 35 34 33
60 60
Austria 71 83 83 78 76 75 75 76 76
Denmark 34 42 36 30 30 29 29 29 29
40 40
Portugal 117 135 125 112 99 95 91 87 83
Greece 186 213 201 179 169 159 152 148 145
20 20
United States 108 132 125 120 122 123 127 129 131
China 60 70 72 77 84 89 93 97 102
0 0
Japan 236 258 254 257 252 255 253 251 251
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
India 75 88 83 82 83 82 82 81 80
Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist Private and Confidential 30
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) by jurisdiction
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘24e ‘25e ‘26e ‘27e % GDP Government Fiscal balance % GDP
Germany 1.5 -4.3 -3.6 -2.5 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7
Germany Italy
UK -2.5 -13.1 -7.9 -4.7 -6.0 -4.6 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 Spain France
4 4
France -3.1 -9.0 -6.5 -4.8 -5.5 -4.9 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 UK United States Forecast
Italy -1.5 -9.4 -8.7 -8.6 -7.2 -4.6 -3.2 -3.0 -2.9 Netherlands
2 2
Spain -3.1 -10.1 -6.7 -4.7 -3.6 -3.1 -3.0 -3.2 -3.3
Netherlands 1.8 -3.7 -2.2 -0.1 -1.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.8
0 0
Switzerland 1.3 -3.0 -0.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2 -2
Poland -0.7 -6.9 -1.8 -3.7 -5.6 -5.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.4
Belgium -2.0 -8.9 -5.4 -3.5 -4.6 -4.4 -4.7 -5.0 -5.4 -4 -4
Sweden 0.5 -2.8 0.0 1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.3
-6 -6
Ireland 0.5 -5.0 -1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
Norway 6.5 -2.6 10.3 25.4 14.2 14.9 13.3 12.3 11.5 -8 -8
Austria 0.6 -8.0 -5.8 -3.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0
-10 -10
Denmark 4.1 0.4 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 -0.1
Portugal 0.1 -5.8 -2.9 -0.3 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -12 -12
Greece -0.1 -10.5 -7.5 -2.4 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3
-14 -14
United States -5.8 -13.9 -11.1 -4.1 -8.8 -6.5 -7.1 -6.6 -6.2
China -6.1 -9.7 -6.0 -7.5 -7.1 -7.4 -7.6 -7.8 -7.8 -16 -16
Japan -3.0 -9.1 -6.1 -4.4 -5.8 -6.5 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
India -7.7 -12.9 -8.6 -9.2 -8.6 -7.8 -7.6 -7.3 -7.0
Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist Private and Confidential 31
Rethinking active versus passive
– including the role of concentration
32
Roughly 90% of active equity fund managers underperform their index and 81%
of active fixed income managers underperform their index on a 10-year horizon
Source: SPIVA Global Scorecard, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Data as of 30th June 2024. Calculated as average of underperformance for each category for regions/countries US, Europe, Canada, Australia, MENA,
Brazil, Chile, South Africa, India, Australia and Japan 33
Share of passive funds rising
50% 50%
45% 45%
40% 40%
35% 35%
30% 30%
25% 25%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
%
% of active funds lagging benchmark
120%
3-year 5-year 10-year
100% 96%
93% 93% 92%
90%
87% 86% 85%
80% 79% 78%
80% 74%
60%
40%
20%
0%
U.S. Canada Europe Japan
$trn
$trn Cumulative fund flows since 2012
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
-1.0 -1.0
-2.0 -2.0
Active Equity Mutual Funds & ETF Passive Equity Mutual Funds & ETF
-3.0 -3.0
-4.0 -4.0
May-12
Sep-12
May-13
Sep-13
May-14
Sep-14
May-15
Sep-15
May-16
Sep-16
May-17
Sep-17
May-18
Sep-18
May-19
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
May-23
Sep-23
May-24
Sep-24
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Source: Bloomberg, S&P SPIVA, Apollo Chief Economist. 36
%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-90
Dec-90
Nov-91
Oct-92
Sep-93
Nov-13
S&P 500 share of top 10 companies by market cap
Oct-14
Sep-15
Aug-16
Jul-17
Jun-18
May-19
Apr-20
Mar-21
Feb-22
Jan-23
Dec-23
%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
37
The Magnificent 7 story is getting more complicated
290 290
240 240
190 190
140 140
90 90
40 40
Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24
25
20
15
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Median P/E, Date as of 30 September 2024 39
Global equity returns are basically about NVIDIA
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.5
3.3 3.2 3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0 0.8
0.0
NVIDIA Japan Canada UK France Germany Italy
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
140
120
100
80
60
40
29
20
0
Total employment in the S&P 500 companies Total employment in the US economy
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
S&P 500 capital expenditures
Sep-20
Dec-20
Overall capex in the US economy and capex by S&P500 companies
Mar-21
Jun-21
Capex by S&P500 companies is 15% of total capex in the US economy
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
43
Mar-24
$bn
5000
0
10000
15000
20000
25000
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Aug-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Dec-21
Less than half of all corporate debt outstanding is from S&P500 companies
May-22
Non financial business sector debt
Oct-22
Mar-23
Aug-23
Jan-24
Jun-24
44
$bn
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0
500
Mar-98
Nov-98
Jul-99
Mar-00
Nov-00
Jul-01
Mar-02
Mar-10
Nov-10
Jul-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Jul-13
Mar-14
Nov-14
Jul-15
Mar-16
Nov-16
S&P500 profits make up half of economy-wide corporate profits
Jul-17
Mar-18
US corporate profits
Nov-18
Jul-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jul-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jul-23
Mar-24
45
Small businesses, i.e. privately-owned firms, account for almost 80% of job openings
60%
50%
40%
30% 26%
20% 17%
10%
2% 3%
0%
1-249 250-4999 >5000
Number of employees
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.5
3.3 3.2 3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0 0.8
0.0
NVIDIA Japan Canada UK France Germany Italy
48