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Public vs Private Markets: Convergence Trends

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Public vs Private Markets: Convergence Trends

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Anshika Garg
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Rethinking public and private, safe

and risky, and passive and active

Torsten Slok, Sarah Veith, and Rajvi Shah


tslok@apollo.com

Apollo Global Management

November 2024

Unless otherwise noted, information as of November 2024

Proprietary - Not for distribution, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Legal Disclaimer

Unless otherwise noted, information included herein is presented as of the dates indicated. Apollo Global
Management, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, “Apollo”) makes no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the information contained herein,
including, but not limited to, information obtained from third parties. Opinions, estimates and projections constitute
the current judgment of the author as of the date indicated. They do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions
of Apollo and are subject to change at any time without notice. Apollo does not have any responsibility to update
the information to account for such changes. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in these materials are provided for
reader convenience only. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed herein will continue.

The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or
tax advice and does not constitute an investment recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make an
independent investigation of the information contained herein, including consulting their tax, legal, accounting or
other advisors about such information. Apollo does not act for you and is not responsible for providing you with the
protections afforded to its clients.

Certain information contained herein may be “forward-looking” in nature. Due to various risks and uncertainties,
actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking
information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such information. Forward-looking statements may
be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”,
“target”, “project”, “estimate”, “intend”, “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or
comparable terminology.

Private and Confidential 2


Conclusions

1. Public and private markets are converging, liquidity in public and private
credit markets is converging.

2. In a world where public and private markets are converging, public


markets can be safe and risky, and private markets can be safe and risky.

3. 90% of active managers of public equities underperform their index.


Global equity investors have become highly leveraged to Nvidia because
of the rise in passive investing, high concentration in equity markets, and
a high share of foreign ownership.

Source: Apollo Chief Economist 3


Rethinking public and private

4
US: 86% of firms with revenues greater than $100 million are private

Share of public and private companies in the US, with revenue greater than $100mn

Public companies Private companies

14%

86%

Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist 5
Share of US companies with revenue greater than $100 million

US companies with revenue over $100mn

65% 10% 11% 4% 2% 7%

Private (100 to 499mn) Private (500mn to 1bn) Private (Greater than 1bn)

Public (100 to 499mn) Public (500mn to 1bn) Public (Greater than 1bn)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist 6


Europe: 96% of firms with revenues greater than $100 million are private

Share of public vs private companies in Europe, with revenue greater than $100mn

4%

96%

Public companies Private companies

Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. 7
Asia: 87% of firms with revenues greater than $100 million are private

Share of public vs private companies in Asia, with revenue greater than $100mn

13%

87%

Public companies Private companies

Note: For companies with last 12-month revenue greater than $100mn by count. Source: S&P Capital IQ, Apollo Chief Economist. 8
Number of publicly listed companies in the US have declined from 8000 to 4000

Number
Number of publicly listed companies in the US Number
8500 8500

8000 8000

7500 7500

7000 7000

6500 6500

6000 6000

5500 5500

5000 5000

4500 4500

4000 4000
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Source: World Bank, WFE, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 9
UK publicly listed companies

Count Number of publicly listed companies in the UK Count


3500 3500

3300 3300

3100 3100

2900 2900

2700 2700

2500 2500

2300 2300

2100 2100

1900 1900

1700 1700

1500 1500

Source: World Federation of Exchanges, Apollo Chief Economist 10


Number of publicly listed companies have declined in Germany from 800 to 400

Count Number of domestically listed companies in Germany Count


800 800

750 750

700 700

650 650

600 600

550 550

500 500

450 450

400 400

350 350

300 300

Source: World Development Indicators, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 11


0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Count
Dec-80
Dec-81
Dec-82
Dec-83
Dec-84
Dec-85
Dec-86

Source: Jay Ritter IPO data, Apollo Chief Economist


Dec-87
Dec-88
Dec-89
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
And fewer companies are going public

Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Total US IPOs

Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Count

Dec-23
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800

12
Less and less liquidity in public bond markets

$ trn Total stock of US corporate bonds outstanding Primary dealer inventory of corporate bonds (RHS) $ bn
11 300

10
250
9

8
200
7

6 150

5
100
4

3
50
2

1 0
Jul-01
Mar-02

Jul-03
Mar-04

Jul-05
Mar-06

Jul-07
Mar-08

Jul-09
Mar-10

Jul-11
Mar-12

Jul-13
Mar-14

Jul-15
Mar-16

Jul-17
Mar-18

Jul-19
Mar-20

Jul-21
Mar-22

Jul-23
Mar-24
Nov-02

Nov-04

Nov-06

Nov-08

Nov-10

Nov-12

Nov-14

Nov-16

Nov-18

Nov-20

Nov-22
Source: FRBNY, ICE BofA, Haver Analytics. Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 13
Private credit share of US corporate debt outstanding

% US private credit share of US corporate debt outstanding


7.0%

6.0%
6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0% 1.7%

1.0%

0.0%
2003 2023

Source: Preqin, ICE BofA, PitchBook LCD, FRB, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: US debt outstanding includes US IG and HY corporate bond market value outstanding, leveraged loans market value outstanding, US private credit AUM and US bank
lending to corporates. 14
Private equity share of total US equity market

% US private equity % of total equity market


10.1%
10%

8%

6%

3.8%
4%

2%

0%
2003 2023

Source: Preqin, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Total equity market includes market value of US stock market and US Private equity AUM 15
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some equity investments are
safe, and some equity
investments are risky

16
The share of Russell 2000 companies with negative earnings continues to rise

% Percentage of companies in Russell 2000 with negative earnings (12-month trailing EPS) %
50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10
Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 17
Small cap, mid cap, and large cap: Percentage of companies with negative earnings

% %
45% 42% 45%

40% 40%

35% 35%

30% 30%

25% 25%

20% 20%

15% 14% 15%

10% 10%
6%
5% 5%

0% 0%
Russell 2000 Index Russell Midcap Index S&P 500 Index

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. 18


Russell 2000 more vulnerable when rates stay higher for longer

% Debt by maturity (excluding financials)


Floating Fixed (maturity in 2024 and 2025) Fixed (maturity 2026+)
100%

90%

80%
45.0%
70%
69.3%
60%
2.2%
50%

40%

30%
6.5% 52.7%
20%

10% 24.2%

0%
S&P 500 Russell 2000

Source: Bloomberg SRCH, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Includes bonds and loans (tranches) and excludes financials. 19
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some credit investments are
safe, and some credit
investments are risky

20
US IG yield around 5% and HY yield around 6.8%

% US Corporate Investment grade and High yield yields %


20 20

18 Investment Grade High Yield 18

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

Source: ICE BofA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist. 21


US IG yield levels, by rating

% US investment grade corporate bond yields by rating %


AAA AA A BBB
11 11

10 10

9 9

8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

Source: ICE BofA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 22


US HY yield levels, by rating

% US high yield corporate bond yields by rating %


BB B CCC & lower

33 33

28 28

23 23

18 18

13 13

8 8

3 3

Source: ICE BofA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 23


High yield riskier than Investment grade

bps US investment grade and high yield spreads bps


2000 2000
IG Corporate HY Corporate
1800 1800
IG historical average HY historical average
1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600

400 400

200 200

0 0
Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 24
IG spreads by rating

bps US investment grade corporate bond spreads, by rating bps


AAA AA A BBB
800 800

700 700

600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

100 100

0 0

Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 25


HY spreads by rating

bps US high yield corporate bond spreads, by rating bps

BB B CCC
3000 3000

2500 2500

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 1000

500 500

0 0
Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 26
Most corporate bonds outstanding are rated either BBB or single-A

$tn US corporate bond market cap


4.5
4.1
4.0 3.9

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0 0.7 0.7


0.5
0.5
0.1 0.2
0.0
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC

Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Data as of 30th September 2024 27
IG market is nine times bigger than HY and nine times bigger than the loan market

$trn Market value outstanding $trn

HY bonds IG bonds Leveraged loans


10 10

9 9

8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 1

0 0
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Source: ICE BofA, Bloomberg, PitchBook LCD, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Ticker used for HY is H0A0 Index and for IG it is C0A0 Index and for Loans it is SPBDALB Index. 28
Rethinking safe and risky:
Some sovereign investments
are safe, and some sovereign
investments are risky

29
Debt/GDP by jurisdiction
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘24e ‘25e ‘26e ‘27e % GDP Government debt (% GDP) % GDP
Germany
180 180
60 69 69 66 64 64 62 61 60
Germany Italy
UK 86 106 105 100 101 104 106 107 108 Forecast
160 Spain France 160
France 97 115 113 112 111 112 113 113 114
UK United States
Italy 134 155 147 140 137 139 140 143 143 Netherlands
140 140
Spain 98 120 117 112 107 106 105 105 105
Netherlands 49 55 52 50 47 48 48 49 50
120 120
Switzerland 40 43 41 38 38 37 36 34 33
Poland 46 57 54 49 51 55 58 60 61
100 100
Belgium 98 112 108 104 104 105 107 109 112
Sweden 36 40 36 33 36 36 35 34 33
80 80
Ireland 57 58 54 44 43 41 39 36 35
Norway 41 46 42 36 42 38 35 34 33
60 60
Austria 71 83 83 78 76 75 75 76 76
Denmark 34 42 36 30 30 29 29 29 29
40 40
Portugal 117 135 125 112 99 95 91 87 83
Greece 186 213 201 179 169 159 152 148 145
20 20
United States 108 132 125 120 122 123 127 129 131
China 60 70 72 77 84 89 93 97 102
0 0
Japan 236 258 254 257 252 255 253 251 251

1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
India 75 88 83 82 83 82 82 81 80
Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist Private and Confidential 30
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) by jurisdiction
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘24e ‘25e ‘26e ‘27e % GDP Government Fiscal balance % GDP
Germany 1.5 -4.3 -3.6 -2.5 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7
Germany Italy
UK -2.5 -13.1 -7.9 -4.7 -6.0 -4.6 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 Spain France
4 4
France -3.1 -9.0 -6.5 -4.8 -5.5 -4.9 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 UK United States Forecast
Italy -1.5 -9.4 -8.7 -8.6 -7.2 -4.6 -3.2 -3.0 -2.9 Netherlands
2 2
Spain -3.1 -10.1 -6.7 -4.7 -3.6 -3.1 -3.0 -3.2 -3.3
Netherlands 1.8 -3.7 -2.2 -0.1 -1.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.7 -2.8
0 0
Switzerland 1.3 -3.0 -0.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 -2 -2
Poland -0.7 -6.9 -1.8 -3.7 -5.6 -5.5 -4.8 -4.5 -4.4
Belgium -2.0 -8.9 -5.4 -3.5 -4.6 -4.4 -4.7 -5.0 -5.4 -4 -4
Sweden 0.5 -2.8 0.0 1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.3
-6 -6
Ireland 0.5 -5.0 -1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8
Norway 6.5 -2.6 10.3 25.4 14.2 14.9 13.3 12.3 11.5 -8 -8
Austria 0.6 -8.0 -5.8 -3.5 -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0
-10 -10
Denmark 4.1 0.4 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 -0.1
Portugal 0.1 -5.8 -2.9 -0.3 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -12 -12
Greece -0.1 -10.5 -7.5 -2.4 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3
-14 -14
United States -5.8 -13.9 -11.1 -4.1 -8.8 -6.5 -7.1 -6.6 -6.2
China -6.1 -9.7 -6.0 -7.5 -7.1 -7.4 -7.6 -7.8 -7.8 -16 -16
Japan -3.0 -9.1 -6.1 -4.4 -5.8 -6.5 -3.2 -2.9 -3.1

1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
India -7.7 -12.9 -8.6 -9.2 -8.6 -7.8 -7.6 -7.3 -7.0
Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist Private and Confidential 31
Rethinking active versus passive
– including the role of concentration

32
Roughly 90% of active equity fund managers underperform their index and 81%
of active fixed income managers underperform their index on a 10-year horizon

% Global average underperformance rates %

Local Equity International Equity Fixed income


100 100
90 90
90 85 85 90
81
80 76 74 76 80
70
70 64 70
59 61
60 56 60
50
50 50
40 35 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year

Source: SPIVA Global Scorecard, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Data as of 30th June 2024. Calculated as average of underperformance for each category for regions/countries US, Europe, Canada, Australia, MENA,
Brazil, Chile, South Africa, India, Australia and Japan 33
Share of passive funds rising

% Share of passive equity and mutual funds %


55% 55%

50% 50%

45% 45%

40% 40%

35% 35%

30% 30%

25% 25%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24

Source: Bloomberg, S&P SPIVA, Apollo Chief Economist. 34


Active funds lagging benchmark

%
% of active funds lagging benchmark
120%
3-year 5-year 10-year

100% 96%
93% 93% 92%
90%
87% 86% 85%
80% 79% 78%
80% 74%

60%

40%

20%

0%
U.S. Canada Europe Japan

Source: Bloomberg, S&P SPIVA, Apollo Chief Economist. 35


Fund flows into passive funds and out of active funds

$trn
$trn Cumulative fund flows since 2012
4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

-1.0 -1.0

-2.0 -2.0
Active Equity Mutual Funds & ETF Passive Equity Mutual Funds & ETF
-3.0 -3.0

-4.0 -4.0
May-12
Sep-12

May-13
Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

May-15
Sep-15

May-16
Sep-16

May-17
Sep-17

May-18
Sep-18

May-19
Sep-19

May-20
Sep-20

May-21
Sep-21

May-22
Sep-22

May-23
Sep-23

May-24
Sep-24
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Source: Bloomberg, S&P SPIVA, Apollo Chief Economist. 36
%

10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-90
Dec-90
Nov-91
Oct-92
Sep-93

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist


Aug-94
Jul-95
Jun-96
May-97
Apr-98
Mar-99
Feb-00
Jan-01
Dec-01
Nov-02
Oct-03
Sep-04
Aug-05
Jul-06
Jun-07
May-08
Apr-09
Mar-10
Feb-11
Jan-12
Dec-12
The concentration in the S&P500 is more and more extreme

Nov-13
S&P 500 share of top 10 companies by market cap

Oct-14
Sep-15
Aug-16
Jul-17
Jun-18
May-19
Apr-20
Mar-21
Feb-22
Jan-23
Dec-23
%

10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%

37
The Magnificent 7 story is getting more complicated

1st Sep 2023=100 Magnificent 7 performance 1st Sep 2023=100

Tesla Apple Google Microsoft Amazon Meta NVIDIA

290 290

240 240

190 190

140 140

90 90

40 40
Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 38


The current AI bubble is bigger than the 1990s tech bubble

12 month forward P/E


35

30 Top 10 Excluding top 10 S&P 500

25

20

15

10

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Note: Median P/E, Date as of 30 September 2024 39
Global equity returns are basically about NVIDIA

$trn NVIDIA market cap versus market cap in G7 countries


7.0
6.4

6.0

5.0

4.0
3.5
3.3 3.2 3.1
3.0
2.5

2.0

1.0 0.8

0.0
NVIDIA Japan Canada UK France Germany Italy

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 40


Magnificent 7 share of S&P 500 earnings continues to rise

% Magnificent 7 share of S&P 500 earnings


24%

22%

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%
Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24

Source: Factset, Apollo Chief Economist 41


Employment in S&P500 companies is 18% of total US employment

mn Employment in S&P500 companies vs US economy


180
159
160

140

120

100

80

60

40
29

20

0
Total employment in the S&P 500 companies Total employment in the US economy

Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 42


$bn

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000

0
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13

Source: S&P, BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist


Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
US Private fixed investment

Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
S&P 500 capital expenditures

Sep-20
Dec-20
Overall capex in the US economy and capex by S&P500 companies

Mar-21
Jun-21
Capex by S&P500 companies is 15% of total capex in the US economy

Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
43

Mar-24
$bn

5000

0
10000
15000
20000
25000
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10

Source: S&P, FRB, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist


Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
S&P 500 ex financials debt

Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Aug-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-19
Apr-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
Dec-21
Less than half of all corporate debt outstanding is from S&P500 companies

May-22
Non financial business sector debt

Oct-22
Mar-23
Aug-23
Jan-24
Jun-24
44
$bn

1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500

0
500
Mar-98
Nov-98
Jul-99
Mar-00
Nov-00
Jul-01
Mar-02

Source: S&P, BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist


Nov-02
Jul-03
Mar-04
Nov-04
Jul-05
Mar-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Mar-08
Nov-08
Jul-09
S&P 500 profits (basic earnings)

Mar-10
Nov-10
Jul-11
Mar-12
Nov-12
Jul-13
Mar-14
Nov-14
Jul-15
Mar-16
Nov-16
S&P500 profits make up half of economy-wide corporate profits

Jul-17
Mar-18
US corporate profits

Nov-18
Jul-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Jul-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jul-23
Mar-24
45
Small businesses, i.e. privately-owned firms, account for almost 80% of job openings

% Percentage of job openings by establishment size


90%
79%
80% Feb-20 Aug-24
72%
70%

60%

50%

40%

30% 26%

20% 17%

10%
2% 3%
0%
1-249 250-4999 >5000
Number of employees

Source: JOLTS, BLS, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist 46


Global equity returns are all about Nvidia

$trn NVIDIA vs developed countries market cap


7.0
6.4

6.0

5.0

4.0
3.5
3.3 3.2 3.1
3.0
2.5

2.0

1.0 0.8

0.0
NVIDIA Japan Canada UK France Germany Italy

Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist 47


Torsten Slok joined Apollo in August 2020 as
Chief Economist and he leads Apollo's
macroeconomic and market analysis across
the platform.

Prior to joining, Mr. Slok worked for 15 years


as Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank where
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. his team was top ranked in the annual
Institutional Investor survey for a decade. Prior
to joining Deutsche Bank Mr. Slok worked at
the IMF in Washington, DC and at the OECD in
Chief Economist Paris.
Apollo Global Management Mr. Slok has a Ph.D in Economics and has
tslok@apollo.com studied at the University of Copenhagen and
Princeton University.

48

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