Centenary Celebration (1912 – 2012) 99

WATER RESOURCES OF PAKISTAN

BY
Irshad Ahmad , Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi 2 and Imran Tariq3
1

ABSTRACT
Pakistan is suffering from drought conditions since year 2000 till June 2010, due to which
reduction in river discharges and lesser rains occurred. The reliance on ground water increased
remarkably and extensive pumping was observed during the period. The average annual flow
across the rivers is 138 MAF. Based on the average annual flow data, provided by government
of Sindh, the average escapage below Kotri is 31.35 MAF (1976-2011), whilst downstream Kotri
requirement is only 8.6 MAF, also considering the raising of Mangla dam and future usage by
India, there is still 17.87 MAF water available for future development. It is emphasized that
construction of first additional mega reservoir will be replacement of lost storage capacity due to
sedimentation and second additional large dam will add to storage capacity. Most of the
developed semi-arid countries have already created enough water storage capacity while
numbers of developing nations are bracing themselves for coping with this adversity.
Unfortunately, Pakistan is little too late to respond to the call of time for development of
reservoirs, after commissioning of Tarbela Dam in 1976 there is no remarkable addition to the
storage capacity of the country and we have wasted about $149 billion worth of water to the sea
till the end of 2010.
The history of water resource development starts back in 1947 when South Asia was divided
into two independent states, there existed one of the most highly developed Irrigation System in
the World and approximately 37 million acres of land received irrigation from the flow of the
Indus system of Rivers. At the time of independence major portion of the Indus Basin formed a
part of Pakistan and out of 37 million acres which received irrigation, 31 million acres fall in
Pakistan. Starting from a population of about 30 million at the time of Independence in 1947, the
current level is around 180 million to touch 225 million by 2025. Against this, the canal
withdrawals in Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) at the time of Independence were around 60
MAF, which progressively increased, almost keeping in view the population growth to 106 MAF
during the period of 1976-81 immediately after the commissioning of Tarbela Dam. Later on,
due to non-addition of any major reservoirs and sedimentation of existing ones, the canal
withdrawals started stagnating. The average withdrawal figure dropped to 104 MAF by 2002
and currently stands around 102 MAF.
The present status of storage per capita in different semi arid countries shows that Pakistan with
a figure of 150m3 per capita is almost at the bottom with the carryover capacity of only 30 days.
To integrate the available surface water in the system, a series of dams are needed, in a way
that river flows are tamed in steps and reservoirs are managed in a cascading manner.
1. INTRODUCTION
Water is the essential component both for the existence of mankind and for the sustainable
country’s economic growth. Today emphasis on proper and balanced utilization of available

1
Irshad Ahmad, General Manager (P&D), WAPDA, Lahore
2
Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Planning Engineer (P&D), WAPDA, Lahore.
3
Imran Tariq, Jr. Engineer (I&D), WRPO, WAPDA, Lahore.
100 Irshad Ahmad, Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Imran Tariq

water resources is more than ever before. Pakistan is suffering from drought conditions since
year 2000 till June 2010, due to which reduction in river discharges and lesser rains occurred.
The reliance on ground water increased remarkably and extensive pumping was observed
during the period. However during year 2010 from July to September, there were severe floods
and below Kotri flows were over 53 MAF. The situation necessitates conservation and
integration of water resources to meet the water and energy requirements of the country.
Pakistan is situated in the western part of the Indo-Pak sub-continent. It is bounded on the west
by Iran, on the northwest by Afghanistan, on the northeast by China and the disputed territory of
Jammu and Kashmir, on the east by India and on the south by the Arabian Sea. The Indus
Basin of the country which constitutes the mountain valley of the Indus river and its tributaries,
the Indus plains, the Kachhi plain, desert areas of Sindh and the Rann of Kach. On the north, it
is surrounded by Hindu Kush, on the northeast by Karakoram and Harmosh ranges, on the
western side by Suleman and Kirthar ranges while Arabian Sea forms its southern boundary.
The Himalayan Mountains have highest peaks in the world with vast deposits of snow and ice
having the capacity to block and capture the monsoon winds and their moisture. Hindu Kush
and Karakoram mountains form the great water, which separates the Indus Basin waters from
that of the Central Asia.
The Indus Basin is irrigated by the river Indus and its major tributaries which flow in longitudinal
valley in structural troughs parallel to the mountains and after cutting through the mountains
flowing steep and confined channels emerge into the alluvial plains which stretch over a
distance of some 1520 Km to the tidal delta near the Arabian Sea. The Indus river system
consists of; Western Rivers, River Indus, River Kabul, River Jhelum, River Chenab and Eastern
Rivers, River Ravi, River Sutlej and River Beas.
2. WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN
In August 1947 when South Asia was divided into two independent states, there existed one of
the most highly developed Irrigation System in the World and approximately 37 million acres of
land received irrigation from the flow of the Indus system of Rivers. At the time of independence
major portion of the Indus Basin formed a part of Pakistan and out of 37 million acres which
received irrigation, 31 million acres fall in Pakistan. The water dispute between two countries
had risen soon after Independence. India stopped waters in irrigation canals on rivers Ravi and
Sutlej being upper riparian. Direct negotiations between Parties failed to resolve the dispute.
After protracted negotiations, under the office of World Bank, when the World Bank convinced
that existing uses in Pakistan without storage could not be met by transfer of waters from
Western Rivers and the storages on the Western Rivers were required for the purpose. The
Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 under auspices of the World Bank. As per Indus Water
Treaty, the waters of Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) were vested to India while the
waters of Western River vested to Pakistan.
Starting from a population of about 30 million at the time of Independence in 1947, the current
level is around 180 million to touch 225 million by 2025. Against this, the canal withdrawals in
Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) at the time of Independence were around 60 MAF, which
progressively increased, almost in keeping with the population growth to 106 MAF during the
period of 1976-81 immediately after the commissioning of Tarbela Dam. Later on, due to non-
addition of any major reservoir and sedimentation of existing ones (Table – 2), the canal
withdrawals started stagnating. The average withdrawals figure dropped to 104 MAF by 2002
and currently stands around 102 MAF. The present status of storage per capita in different
semi arid countries shows that Pakistan with a figure of 150m3 per capita is almost at the bottom
with the carryover capacity of only 30 days.
Centenary Celebration (1912 – 2012) 101

3. AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOWS OF RIVERS OF INDUS BASIN

The catchment area of the Indus river system is 364,700 square miles, whereas, the average
annual flows across the rivers are as given in Table-1.
Table-1: Average Annual Flows of Rivers of Indus Basin
(MAF)

Average Average Average Average Average

River Annual Flow Annual Flow Annual Flow Annual Flow Annual Flow
(1922-61) (1985-95) (2000-09) (2009-10) (2010-11)
Indus 93 62.7 81.28 81.31 72.07
Jhelum 23 26.6 18.52 21.05 25.73
Chenab 26 27.5 22.52 17.90 25.80
Ravi 7 5 1.1 0.28 2.05
Sutlej 14 3.6 0.39 0.01 2.25
Kabul 26 23.4 18.9 17.4 28.61
Total 189.0 148.8 142.71 138.00 156.51

Source: WRM Directorate, WAPDA, Average Annual River Flows

Pakistan has three major reservoirs, which have original storage capacity of 15.74 MAF, but
with the passage of time, these have lost almost 26% till 2009, of their storage capacity due to
sedimentation as shown in Table - 2.
Table – 2: Reservoir Sedimentation
Storage Capacity Storage Loss
Reservoir Original Year 2009 Year 2009 Year 2012 Year 2025
MAF MAF MAF MAF MAF
Tarbela 9.68 (1974) 6.78 (70%) 2.90 (30%) 3.18 (33%) 4.30 (44%)
Mangla 5.34 (1967) 4.46 (83%) 0.88 (17%) 0.90 (17%) 1.14 (21%)
Chasma 0.72 (1971) 0.37 (51%) 0.35 (49%) 0.29 (40%) 0.38 (52%)
Total 15.74 11.61 (74%) 4.13 (26%) 4.37 (28%) 5.82 (37%)
Source: WRM Directorate, WAPDA
4. AVERAGE ESCAPAGES BELOW KOTRI
Over the past thirty five years, upto September 2010, 1094.88 MAF of water had gone into the
sea unutilized, equivalent to 10 years of canal withdrawals. Excluding the water required for
protecting the ecosystem below Kotri, rest represents a direct economic loss. In monetary
terms, after deducting 300 MAF required for environmental purposes, the value of unutilized
water is US$ 149 billion. For better water management, storage capacity should be equivalent
to at least 40% of annual water availability but Pakistan’s live storage capacity of about 12 MAF
is just about 8 % of average annual river flows.
102 Irshad Ahmad, Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Imran Tariq

The average escapage below Kotri is 31.35 MAF (1976-2011) and Fig. 1 represents the
downstream Kotri escapage, study on Water Escapage Downstream of the Kotri Barrage to
Address Environmental Concerns (Study–II) in November 2005 by Kotri Barrage Study-II
Consultants Group, financed by MoW&P through Federal Flood Commission, suggests that the
downstream Kotri requirements are approximately 8.6 MAF considering the raising of Mangla
dam and future usage by India (Treaty 1960), there is still 18 MAF water available for future
development as depicted in Table-3.
100 91.83

80.59 81.49
80
69.08
62.76
AVG. (35.2) 31.35 MAF
60 1976-200352.86 54.50
53.29
(1976-2011)
45.91 45.40
42.34
40 35.15
33.79
30.39 29.81 29.55 26.90 29.11 24.40
20.10 20.79 20.18 21.78
17.53 17.22
20 15.82 14.26
9.68 10.98 8.83 1.93 5.38
0.77 2.37 0.29 4.07
0

1999-
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84

1985-86

1988-89

1990-91
1991-92

1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99

2000-01
2001-02

2003-04
2004-05

2006-07

2009-10

2011-12
1984-85

1986-87
1987-88

1989-90

1992-93

2002-03

2005-06

2007-08
2008-09

2010-11
YEARS

Source: WRM Directorate based on data provided by Govt. of Sindh

Fig 1: Escapage downstream Kotri (MAF)

Table – 3: River Flows and Storage Potential

(MAF)

Down Stream Kotri Average Annual Flows (1976 – 2011) 31.35

Anticipated Uses
Down Stream Kotri Requirement 8.6
@ 5000 Cusecs round the year
Mangla Dam Raising Project 2.88
Indian Future Uses on Western Rivers 2.0
(As per Indus Water Treaty)
Net Water Available 17.87
Diamer – Bhasha Dam Project 6.4
After Diamer – Bhasha Dam Project 11.47
Centenary Celebration (1912 – 2012) 103

5. WATER AVAILABILITY AND DEMAND GAP

The average annual river flow is approximately 138 MAF, out of which almost 82% (113.16
MAF) occurs during summer seasons and 18 % (24.84 MAF) in winter, out of which 104 MAF is
available at the canal heads for irrigation purposes, whereas, only 58.3 MAF reaches at the
farm gate and 45.7 MAF is lost in conveyance system. The projected demand for agricultural
usage is 119.0 MAF by the year 2025. The current industrial demand is about 4.02 MAF, which
will increase to 4.8 MAF by the year 2025. The anticipated use for municipal and environmental
use is 6.90 MAF and 1.46 MAF respectively which will be increased to 10.50 MAF and 1.70
MAF respectively by year 2025 as depicted in Figure-2 & Table-4.
Agricultural Water Requirements Industrial Water Requirements

140 6
120
5
100
Agricultural Water 4 Industrial Water
80 Requirements Requirements
3
60 Linear (Agricultural Linear (Industrial
Water Requirements) Water Requirements)
2
40
y = 0.052x - 100.5
20 y = 0.8118x - 1525 1

0 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

a) Agricultural Water Requirements b) Industrial Water Requirements

Municipal Water Requirements Environmental Water Requirements

12 1.8
1.6
10
1.4
8 Municipal Water 1.2 Environmental Water
Requirements 1 Requirements
6
Linear (Municipal 0.8 Linear (Environmental
4 Water Requirements) 0.6 Water Requirements)
y = 0.24x - 475.5 0.4 y = 0.016x - 30.7
2
0.2
0 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

c) Municipal Water Requirements d) Environmental Water Requirements

Total Water Requirements

160
140
120
100 Total Water
Requirements
80
Linear (Total Water
60 Requirements)
40
y = 1.108x - 2107.7
20
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

e) Total Water Requirements

Fig 2: Current & Future Water Requirements (2000 – 2025)
104 Irshad Ahmad, Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Imran Tariq

Table–4: Current & Future Water Requirements of Pakistan (2010 – 2025)

(MAF)

Present & Future Water Requirements Additional

Sr.No. Usage Requirements
2010 2015 2020 2025 in 2025

1 Agricultural 107 111 115 119 12

2 Industrial 4.02 4.28 4.54 4.8 0.78

3 Municipal 6.90 8.10 9.30 10.50 3.60

4 Environmental 1.46 1.54 1.62 1.70 0.24

5 Total 119.38 124.92 130.46 136 16.62

Source: National Water Policy 2003 (Draft) and updation upto 2010

Moreover, as per global standards, 1000 m3 per capita is the threshold value for water scarcity.
Pakistan at present is striving with water scarcity and only 1038 m3 of water is available per
capita, which will further be reduced to 751 m3 per capita till year 2030.
The Table – 5 & Figure 3 show the anticipated growth in the population and the decline in per
capita water availability.

Table–5: Water Availability Per Capita/Year (m3)

Water Availability
Year Population (million) Global Criteria
(Cubic Meter)

1951 34 5260 1000 m3 per capita is the

threshold value (Falkenmark &
2010 172 1038 Wedstrand 1992)

2020 204 877

2025 221 809

2030 238 751

Centenary Celebration (1912 – 2012) 105

WATER AVAILABILITY Vs POPULATION GROWTH

6000 330

311
300
PER CAPITA
5000 5260 AVAILIBILITY
270
3

273
PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M)

POPULATION
240
4000 GROWTH 221 238
4159

Population (Million)
210
204
3000 180
172
2838
150
143
2000
2129 120
111
1611 90
1000 84 1250
1038 877
63 575 60
34 809 751 654
43
0 30
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

YEAR

Fig 3: Per Capita Water Availability per year (m3)

6. NEED FOR CONSTRUCTION OF STORAGE FACILITIES & CONSERVATION
OF WATER
According to global criteria, Pakistan is already water stressed semi-arid country with annual per
capita availability of just over 1000 m3 in meeting the future water requirements, it must also be
recognized that water flows in Pakistan are highly uneven across the seasons and years. The
year round agricultural requirements can only be met if sufficient additional storage is made
available. There are nearly 16.62 MAF shortfalls to the future water requirements. This
additional water has to come necessarily from flood flows, for which the need for creation of
storages on Indus and other rivers has been recognized. From analyzing the situation, it is clear
that the balance of total additional water resources ground water exploitation and conservation
measures are only sufficient to meet the requirements of water for nearly two decades or so,
afterwards increasing reliance shall have to be placed on other measures such as adoption of
conservation techniques to save water at all levels, adoption of demand based high efficiency
irrigation system, harnessing hill torrents, and employing modern water management
technologies. As these change over can not be brought about in a short period of time, it is
necessary that the path to conservation and modernization be developed gradually to sustain
future water demands.
To meet future water requirements, to an appreciable measure, it would be necessary to create
large storages on Indus River. It is well known that storage projects take considerable time and
effort for completion and need mobilization of heavy capital investment. Considering the acute
shortage of water in coming years, the need for starting work on a major storage project is
eminent.
In view of above situation, Government of Pakistan through WAPDA has launched a
comprehensive integrated water resource and hydropower development plan, for development
of water resources and hydropower generation. Table – 6 summarizes the project at different
stages of implementation:
106 Irshad Ahmad, Dr. Allah Bakhsh Sufi, Imran Tariq

Table–6: Water Sector Projects

Storage Generation
S. Capacity (MW)
Name of Project Province River Capacity
No.
(MAF)
1 2 3 4 5 6
i. COMPLETED PROJECTS (after the year 2000)
1 Mirani Dam Balochistan Dasht 0.152 -
2 Sabakzai Dam Balochistan Zhob 0.015 -
3 Mangla Dam AJK Jhelum 2.88 644 GWh
R i i Satpara ( dditi l)
4 Satpara Dam GB 0.053 17.3
Nullah
ii. Under Construction
1 Diamer Basha Dam GB/KPK Indus 6.40 4500
2 Gomal Zam Dam KPK Gomal 0.82 -
3 Darawat Dam Sindh Nai Baran 0.122 0.45
iii. Ready for Construction
1 Nai Gaj Dam Sindh Gaj 0.16 4.4
Ghabbir
2 Ghabbir Dam Punjab 0.026 0.15
Nullah
3 Winder Dam Balochistan Winder 0.0362 0.3
4 Kurram Tangi KPK Kurram 0.90 83.4
5 Noulong Dam Balochistan Mula 0.20 4.4
6 Garuk Dam Balochistan Garuk 0.0669 0.3
7 Pelar Dam Balochistan - 0.0992 0.3
8 Tank Zam Dam KPK Tank Zam 0.345 25.5
Tributary of
9 Papin Dam Punjab 0.0896 0.3
Soan River
Kalabagh Dam*
10 Punjab Indus 7.9 3600
iv. Feasibility Study Completed
1 Hingol Dam Balochistan Hingol 1.206 1.0
2 Munda Dam KPK Swat 0.676 740

3 Akhori Dam Punjab Off Channel 7.6 600

v. Detailed Engineering Design Under Finalization

4 Bara Dam KPK Bara 0.085 5.8