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Financial Model Projection

Financial Model projection

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
60 views20 pages

Financial Model Projection

Financial Model projection

Uploaded by

dhilipan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COMPANY NAME POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD

LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO


CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 930.06
Face Value 10.00
Current Price 337.25
Market Capitalization 313,662.86

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Sales 17,539.96 20,652.08 25,697.44 29,953.62
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 174.35 161.29 228.02 244.12
Other Mfr. Exp 516.00 529.47 675.05 757.08
Employee Cost 1,706.47 1,503.19 1,911.60 2,150.29
Selling and admin 710.14 719.17 655.18 935.80
Other Expenses -494.20 -444.92 -222.37 -94.67
Other Income 731.47 655.71 932.84 4,064.88
Depreciation 5,173.33 6,181.82 7,722.25 9,230.99
Interest 4,081.23 5,086.23 6,203.55 7,324.14
Profit before tax 6,404.11 7,571.54 9,457.00 13,470.75
Tax 1,357.86 1,612.93 2,006.27 5,266.75
Net profit 5,046.25 5,958.61 7,450.73 8,204.00
Dividend Amount 1,046.32 1,208.50 2,275.74 2,746.58

Quarters
Report Date Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Sales 10,686.77 10,905.21 11,150.57 11,261.78
Expenses 1,982.74 1,660.53 1,785.04 1,368.34
Other Income 736.86 341.54 198.87 500.47
Depreciation 3,279.09 3,295.26 3,317.31 3,406.82
Interest 2,090.66 1,959.70 2,187.37 3,011.75
Profit before tax 4,071.14 4,331.26 4,059.72 3,975.34
Tax -85.30 529.97 409.43 330.00
Net profit 4,156.44 3,801.29 3,650.29 3,645.34
Operating Profit 8,704.03 9,244.68 9,365.53 9,893.44

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 5,231.59 5,231.59 5,231.59 5,231.59
Reserves 33,207.14 38,738.34 44,633.91 49,194.40
Borrowings 96,243.41 108,544.91 118,987.91 131,502.96
Other Liabilities 26,102.30 26,797.05 26,808.84 39,425.41
Total 160,784.44 179,311.89 195,662.25 225,354.36
Net Block 91,191.06 115,094.18 137,677.86 156,198.27
Capital Work in Progress 53,681.28 45,610.96 38,264.34 37,668.57
Investments 219.59 918.55 1,164.96 1,223.97
Other Assets 15,692.51 17,688.20 18,555.09 30,263.55
Total 160,784.44 179,311.89 195,662.25 225,354.36
Receivables 2,206.96 2,739.47 3,131.93 3,640.02
Inventory 739.00 727.59 924.20 1,087.66
Cash & Bank 2,988.55 2,243.35 3,353.63 2,189.02
No. of Equity Shares ### ### ### ###
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Cash from Operating Activity 15,800.08 15,008.08 21,575.27 22,710.12
Cash from Investing Activity -24,184.66 -21,576.50 -23,835.97 -25,701.45
Cash from Financing Activity 6,398.76 5,620.82 3,958.56 1,284.68
Net Cash Flow -1,985.82 -947.60 1,697.86 -1,706.65

PRICE: 81.71 78.25 110.99 108.71

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 930.07 930.07 930.07 930.07
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24


35,059.12 37,743.54 39,639.79 41,621.64 45,603.11 45,843.10

266.13 287.04 268.70 297.82 311.28 327.29


964.13 943.57 991.77 1,099.13 1,117.61 1,283.41
2,300.54 2,448.57 2,598.44 2,637.05 2,767.47 2,697.00
965.85 1,046.63 908.94 1,040.36 1,251.82 1,401.81
3,642.97 132.01 -33.77 721.70 579.40 307.93
1,505.19 2,820.47 768.88 4,691.94 1,093.41 556.31
10,540.95 11,607.04 12,039.19 12,871.66 13,333.38 13,095.27
8,736.57 9,509.00 8,134.69 8,036.22 9,633.94 8,772.75
9,147.17 14,590.15 15,500.71 19,609.64 17,701.62 18,513.95
-886.35 3,530.75 3,464.25 2,785.57 2,281.88 2,940.79
10,033.52 11,059.40 12,036.46 16,824.07 15,419.74 15,573.16
4,357.91 5,231.59 6,277.91 10,288.79 10,288.79 10,463.18

Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24


12,263.72 11,048.13 11,267.07 11,549.79 11,978.11 11,006.18
1,433.03 1,716.32 1,557.05 1,374.81 2,055.17 1,466.03
293.72 209.47 263.36 380.38 389.01 302.43
3,313.99 3,265.75 3,277.04 3,293.46 3,259.02 3,200.39
2,475.12 2,057.23 2,341.26 2,446.13 1,928.13 2,038.97
5,335.30 4,218.30 4,355.08 4,815.77 5,124.80 4,603.22
1,012.43 621.14 573.66 787.52 958.47 879.30
4,322.87 3,597.16 3,781.42 4,028.25 4,166.33 3,723.92
10,830.69 9,331.81 9,710.02 10,174.98 9,922.94 9,540.15

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24


5,231.59 5,231.59 5,231.59 6,975.45 6,975.45 9,300.60
53,856.80 59,463.76 64,704.48 69,271.68 76,050.84 77,844.51
146,376.36 148,269.64 143,232.50 134,695.63 128,583.81 123,516.21
41,915.55 43,706.14 42,539.40 40,007.54 40,615.12 40,167.98
247,380.30 256,671.13 255,707.97 250,950.30 252,225.22 250,829.30
172,739.62 181,112.13 183,725.97 191,772.84 185,436.99 177,760.55
37,631.06 35,177.41 24,837.79 12,853.60 13,772.32 18,197.49
1,296.42 1,431.08 1,485.55 3,787.64 3,489.11 4,163.17
35,713.20 38,950.51 45,658.66 42,536.22 49,526.80 50,708.09
247,380.30 256,671.13 255,707.97 250,950.30 252,225.22 250,829.30
4,728.10 5,040.71 8,629.42 9,189.33 14,883.96 11,539.63
1,269.96 1,451.37 1,385.44 1,364.04 1,347.01 1,406.71
4,336.65 5,453.90 5,358.71 5,048.18 7,384.58 7,495.12
### ### ### ### ### ###

10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24


23,271.16 30,738.63 29,402.68 26,123.52 40,202.87 37,289.50
-18,727.45 -10,733.49 -9,243.99 752.79 -7,138.25 -13,114.39
-2,430.78 -18,805.84 -20,521.05 -28,966.94 -30,449.56 -25,903.33
2,112.93 1,199.30 -362.36 -2,090.63 2,615.06 -1,728.22

111.32 89.50 121.31 162.60 169.28 276.90

930.07 930.07 930.07 930.06 930.06 930.06


Report Date Sales Forecast( Sales ) Lower Confidence Bound( Sales )
Mar-15 17539.96
Mar-16 20652.08
Mar-17 25697.44
Mar-18 29953.62
Mar-19 35059.12
Mar-20 37743.54
Mar-21 39639.79
Mar-22 41621.64
Mar-23 45603.11
Mar-24 45843.1 45843.1 45843.10
Mar-25 49417.6920180746 46532.18
Mar-26 52693.9463421877 48809.96
Mar-27 55970.2006663009 51294.78
Mar-28 59246.454990414 53893.99
Mar-29 62522.7093145272 56568.46
Mar-30 65798.9636386404 59297.24
Upper Confidence Bound( Sales )
80000

70000

60000

50000

40000
45843.10
52303.20 30000
56577.94
60645.63 20000
64598.92
68476.96 10000
72300.69
0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24

Sales Forecast( Sale


Lower Confidence Bound( Sales ) Upper Confide
Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-27 Jan-28 Jan-29 Jan-30

Forecast( Sales )
Sales ) Upper Confidence Bound( Sales )
Power Grid Corporation
Shyam Sudharsan R
155
PROFIT & LOSS Actual
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
Weighatage 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Sales 17539.96 20652.08 25697.44 29953.62 35059.12 37743.54 39639.79 41621.64
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 174.35 161.29 228.02 244.12 266.13 287.04 268.7 297.82
Other Mfr. Exp 516 529.47 675.05 757.08 964.13 943.57 991.77 1099.13
Employee Cost 1706.47 1503.19 1911.6 2150.29 2300.54 2448.57 2598.44 2637.05
Selling and admin 710.14 719.17 655.18 935.8 965.85 1046.63 908.94 1040.36
Other Expenses -494.2 -444.92 -222.37 -94.67 3642.97 132.01 -33.77 721.7
Other Income 731.47 655.71 932.84 4064.88 1505.19 2820.47 768.88 4691.94
Depreciation 5173.33 6181.82 7722.25 9230.99 10540.95 11607.04 12039.19 12871.66
Interest 4081.23 5086.23 6203.55 7324.14 8736.57 9509 8134.69 8036.22
Profit before tax 6404.11 7571.54 9457 13470.75 9147.17 14590.15 15500.71 19609.64
Tax 1357.86 1612.93 2006.27 5266.75 -886.35 3530.75 3464.25 2785.57
Net profit 5046.25 5958.61 7450.73 8204 10033.52 11059.4 12036.46 16824.07
Dividend Amount 1046.32 1208.5 2275.74 2746.58 4357.91 5231.59 6277.91 10288.79
Grid Corporation Of India Ltd.
Shyam Sudharsan R
155
Projection
Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
45603.11 45843.1 51960.32 54798.210667 57306.4656 59887.043129 62527.564629

311.28 327.29 392.90090959 408.24320917 425.88528466 440.01605598 456.21552682


1117.61 1283.41 1359.2414041 1425.0970742 1491.3970196 1557.7012852 1629.3175926
2767.47 2697 3478.8827393 3590.873709 3734.1815087 3870.0287212 4012.079276
1251.82 1401.81 1475.3765703 1524.8601542 1574.3585532 1652.1748553 1710.4465702
579.4 307.93 626.86776353 764.58220557 902.56442716 1028.6519717 1155.1421018
1093.41 556.31 2172.4513333 2048.4172 1758.5013244 1333.6732853 2857.516062
13333.38 13095.27 15399.458667 16152.4048 16793.718142 17437.632501 1173.1264524
9633.94 8772.75 10432.668 10659.508533 10821.65608 10975.062743 4409.5758158
17701.62 18513.95 20967.37528 22321.058181 23321.205909 24259.44828 50839.177356
2281.88 2940.79 5241.8438199 5580.2645453 5830.3014772 6064.8620701 12709.794339
15419.74 15573.16 15725.53146 16740.793636 17490.904432 18194.58621 38129.383017
10288.79 10463.18 7918.6408953 8641.4277802 9281.6758451 9874.5696158 21129.841448
Step1:
Step2:
Step3:
Basic for Forcasting Step4:
Linear Regression Step5:
Step6:
Step7:
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
Linear Regression
Linear Regression
Linear Regression
Calcualtion
Tax compunding@ 25%
Calcualtion
D/P Ratio
NOTES:

We used the Forecast formula to estimate sales from March 24 to March 29, based on the past 10 years' data.
Sales, other income, depreciation, and interest were projected using weights from previous years.
We averaged costs like power, employee expenses, and admin costs from the past 10 years and applied them to the forecasted s
Profit before tax = Sales + Other income – (Expenses like power, employee costs, depreciation, etc.).
Tax is 25% of profit before tax.
Net profit = Profit before tax – Tax.
We calculated dividends by using the average of past 10 years' dividends and net profit, then applied that ratio to this year's pro
Qualitati
PROFIT & LOSS Actual
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Weightage 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales 17539.96 20652.08 25697.44 29953.62 35059.12 37743.54 39639.79
Raw Material Cost
Change in Inventory
Power and Fuel 174.35 161.29 228.02 244.12 266.13 287.04 268.7
Other Mfr. Exp 516 529.47 675.05 757.08 964.13 943.57 991.77
Employee Cost 1706.47 1503.19 1911.6 2150.29 2300.54 2448.57 2598.44
Selling and admin 710.14 719.17 655.18 935.8 965.85 1046.63 908.94
Other Expenses -494.2 -444.92 -222.37 -94.67 3642.97 132.01 -33.77
Other Income 731.47 655.71 932.84 4064.88 1505.19 2820.47 768.88
Depreciation 5173.33 6181.82 7722.25 9230.99 10540.95 11607.04 12039.19
Interest 4081.23 5086.23 6203.55 7324.14 8736.57 9509 8134.69
Profit before tax 6404.11 7571.54 9457 13470.75 9147.17 14590.15 15500.71
Tax 1357.86 1612.93 2006.27 5266.75 -886.35 3530.75 3464.25
Net profit 5046.25 5958.61 7450.73 8204 10033.52 11059.4 12036.46
Dividend Amount 1046.32 1208.5 2275.74 2746.58 4357.91 5231.59 6277.91
Qualitative projection
Projections
Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
41621.64 45603.11 45843.1 50465.96 55071.88 59662.35 64238.61 68801.74

297.82 311.28 327.29 381.60 410.26 443.36 471.97 502.01


1099.13 1117.61 1283.41 1320.15 1432.18 1552.67 1670.85 1792.73
2637.05 2767.47 2697 3378.83 3608.49 3887.27 4150.84 4414.58
1040.36 1251.82 1401.81 1432.95 1532.35 1638.87 1771.97 1881.97
721.7 579.4 307.93 608.84 768.82 940.47 1104.07 1270.79
4691.94 1093.41 556.31 2172.45 2048.42 1758.50 1333.67 1519.08
12871.66 13333.38 13095.27 15399.46 16152.40 16793.72 17437.63 18136.68
8036.22 9633.94 8772.75 10432.67 10659.51 10821.66 10975.06 11180.78
19609.64 17701.62 18513.95 19683.92 22556.29 25342.83 27989.89 31141.28
2785.57 2281.88 2940.79 4920.98 5639.07 6335.71 6997.47 7785.32
16824.07 15419.74 15573.16 14762.94 16917.22 19007.12 20992.42 23355.96
10288.79 10288.79 10463.18 7433.92 8734.25 10090.02 11396.05 12940.36
Basis for Forcasting

Liner Regression

% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
% of Revenue
Liner Regression
Liner Regression
Liner Regression
Calculation
Tax computed @25%
Calculation
D/P Ratio
BALANCE SHEET Acutal
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Weightage 1 2 3 4 5
Sales 42094 42460 42825 43190 43555
Equity Share Capital 5231.59 5231.59 5231.59 5231.59 5231.59
Reserves 33207.14 38738.34 44633.91 49194.4 53856.8
Borrowings 96243.41 108544.91 118987.91 131502.96 146376.36
Other Liabilities 26102.3 26797.05 26808.84 39425.41 41915.55
Total Liabilities 160784.44 179311.89 195662.25 225354.36 247380.3
Net Block 91191.06 115094.18 137677.86 156198.27 172739.62
Capital Work in Progress 53681.28 45610.96 38264.34 37668.57 37631.06
Investments 219.59 918.55 1164.96 1223.97 1296.42
Other Assets 15692.51 17688.2 18555.09 30263.55 35713.2
Receivables 2206.96 2739.47 3131.93 3640.02 4728.1
Cash & Bank 2988.55 2243.35 3353.63 2189.02 4336.65
Total Assets 160784.44 179311.89 195662.25 225354.36 247380.3
Balance Sheet Forcasting
Acutal Projection
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
43921 44286 44651 45016 45382 45747 46112
5231.59 5231.59 6975.45 6975.45 9300.6 7906 8471
59463.76 64704.48 69271.68 76050.84 77844.51 81736 85485
148269.64 143232.5 134695.63 128583.81 123516.21
43706.14 42539.4 40007.54 40615.12 40167.98 148295 151959
256671.13 255707.97 250950.3 252225.22 250829.3 237936 245916
181112.13 183725.97 191772.84 185436.99 177760.55 166586 174408
35177.41 24837.79 12853.6 13772.32 18197.49 8095.34 4468.83
1431.08 1485.55 3787.64 3489.11 4163.17 4169 4616
38950.51 45658.66 42536.22 49526.8 50708.09 44438 46439
5040.71 8629.42 9189.33 14883.96 11539.63 6875 7360
5453.9 5358.71 5048.18 7384.58 7495.12 7773 8623
256671.13 255707.97 250950.3 252225.22 250829.3 237936 245916
Projection
Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29 Basis for
13 14 15 Forcasting
46477 46843 47208 Liner Regression
9085 9729 10372 Liner Regression
89337 93071 96653 Calculation

154367 155870 155034 Balancing Figure


252790 258670 262060 Interperting
180546 184961 187901 Turnover Ratio
278.69 -4803.79 -9545.76 Liner Regression
5165 5754 6327 Liner Regression
49665 54323 58026 Calculation
7841 8330 8817 Turnover
9295 10106 10534 Liner Regression
252790 258670 262060 Turnover
Net Based valuation
Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd.

Particulars In Crores Note


Net Block ₹ 177,761
Capital Work in Progress ₹ 18,197
Investments ₹ 4,163
Other Assets ₹ 50,708
Receivables ₹ 11,540
Cash & Bank ₹ 7,495
Total Assets ₹ 250,829
Borrowings ₹ 123,516
Other Liabilities ₹ 40,168
Total External Liabilities ₹ 163,684
Net Assets ₹ 87,145 Assets- liablity
Adjusted Equity Share in CR ₹ 930.06
Net Assets Value Per Share ₹ 93.70 net assets/adjusted equity share
Cash Flow Estimation & Capital Budgeting
Year Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29
Net Profit 18159 19081 20044 21128 22449
Add Depreciation 2007 5314 5799 6286 6738
cash flow -74810.43 20166 24395 25843 27414 29187
WACC 23.05%
Capital Empolyeed 74810.43

NPV ₹ 47,120.82
IRR 19%
MIRR 20%

XNPV -6155
XIRR 19%
year cash flow XNPV XIRR
Mar-24 -74810.43 -6155 19%
Mar-25 20166
Mar-26 24395
Mar-27 25843
Mar-28 27414
Mar-29 29187

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