1.

Introduction
The fluctuations of food prices is usually one of the most important issues in
society. Food prices play a crucial role in society, affecting the living cost of consumers,
especially for lower-income groups. For producers, food prices can have a dramatic impact
on production costs, the competitiveness and agricultural businesses. Due to their
significant impact, food prices can disrupt the balance of supply and demand, potentially
leading to market instability and limited access to food, particularly for vulnerable
populations. This essay explores the causes and the effects of the fluctuations of food
prices, particularly after the global pandemic.
2. Theoretical background and empirical evidence related to the topic
COVID - 19 had a big impact on the Vietnamese economy, especially on the food
economy which led to the fluctuation of food prices. The most important issue leading to
this result is the change in demand and supply of the food market.
2.1 Changes in food demand of Vietnamese consumers
The Covid-19 pandemic has made Vietnamese people change their food demand
and consumer behavior, influenced by health concerns, lifestyle and technological
adoption. The following are the primary trends seen in the aftermath.
2.1.1 Increase demand for healthier food
After Covid-19 people tend to focus on their health, and the best way to improve it is
eating healthy food. That is why there is a significant rise in demand for nutritious and
organic food. The products that consumers mainly used during the pandemic were those
that strengthen nutrition and immunity, particularly for kids and elderly who are at greater
risk.
“Dairy, packaged foods and personal care sectors have managed to sustain growth
rates of 1.7-14.5 percent, while beverages suffered a decline despite this being the high
season, Lunar New Year or Tết” (VNS, 2020). It can be explained by the decrease in
parties and celebrations due to people avoiding meeting and socializing. “By looking at
consumer purchase behaviours in the four weeks after Tết compared to the same period
last year, it is easy to see how COVID-19 has initially affected people’s FMCG (Fast-
moving consumer goods) spending and purchase behaviours. They cut down on
celebratory categories from their basket. Thus, alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks suffered
the most in this period, with beer and carbonated soft drinks in particular experiencing
sharp declines” (VNS, 2020).
Due to the growth of lockdown and social distancing, many households changed
from eating out to cooking at home. Since they are conscious about their health. This is
why the number of raw ingredients and unprocessed foods rose. However, because of the
pandemic, people could not go out to buy food, so they chose to use an online shopping
platform. “Shopee Vietnam's report found that food and grocery buying has become
online-first as consumers view e-commerce as a one-stop channel for their needs. Sellers
and brands are adapting quickly. It said that people are doing a larger share of food
shopping online, with a 3.5-time increase in users who buy food items several times a
month on their platform.” (VNS, 2021).
2.1.2 Preference for ease of use
Ready-to-eat meals became popular because after Covid-19 people are returning to
their busy lifestyles, which is why the number of instant and convenient food has risen
dramatically. “Masan, a major manufacturer of instant food (instant noodles, porridge,
processed meat), cool meat (MeatDeli brand) and many other products such as sauces,
condiments, and beverages, is currently operating at its full capacity during this time”
(VietnamCredit, 2020). Masan representatives indicated that their factories had attained
maximum production capacity to fulfill consumer requirements for essential goods
(VietnamCredit, 2020).
2.2 Changes in food supply of Vietnamese food economic
The F&B (Food & Beverage) industry was greatly damaged by the Covid-19
epidemic, which affected both distribution and production. Key challenges included labor
shortages, disrupted transportation networks, and fluctuating consumer demand.On the
other hand, the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) industry was not affected as much
as the F&B industry, that time was a good opportunity for the FMCG industry to thrive.
2.2.1 The F&B industry
While global food shortages were essentially avoided during the crisis, systemic
weaknesses in the F&B supply chain were on full display. These include dependence on
manual labor, not good preservation and operation technology, and dependence too much
on a single source of supply, leading to business interruption over time (Innovative Hub
Viet Nam, 2023). Although this is not the first global health epidemic, it has put great
pressure on the F&B industry.
F&B firms that are damaged due to Covid-19.
Golden Gate Group: Considered one of the "giants" in the F&B industry, Golden
Gate had to close 12 restaurants during the peak of the epidemic. Despite
countermeasures such as promoting door-to-door delivery service (G-Delivery), the
company still suffered significant losses due to social distancing and customer fear (Soha,
2020).
 The Coffee House: This coffee chain faces great difficulties when about 2/3 of its
stores have to limit the number of customers during each epidemic. Revenue dropped
sharply, especially during the period of strict social distancing (Cafebiz, 2021).
2.2.2 The FMCG industry
Rising raw material prices, social distancing, and disruption of trade between
epidemic areas are factors that directly impact business producing and distributing FMCG
products in Vietnam. These businesses often own a wide network of agents and sales staff
throughout the provinces and cities. Therefore, the distribution system is susceptible to
"breakdown" in areas strongly "attacked" by the Covid-19 (Phu Do, 2021).
However, during and after the epidemic, Vietnamese consumers prefer to consume
this type of food. Because during the lockdowns and social distancing, people were
avoided to go out, that is why they store lots of this type of products. “Convenient foods
and cooking aids also saw sales surge during the outbreak, probably due to fear and
anxiety amid the increasing number of confirmed cases and the extended home stay of
children” (VNS, 2020). And after Covid, people are busier because they have to earn back
the money lost during the epidemic. The year 2024 is an important milestone when
Vietnam witnesses recovery after the challenging period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
GDP growth rate reached 6.8-7.0%, exceeding the Government's initial expectations,
marking a positive return of the economy (NIQ, 2024).
FMCG firms that are damaged due to Covid-19.
Orion and Mondelez: products of these 2 firms are chosen to be bought by millions
of households included in 4 big cities Ho Chi Minh city, Ha Noi, Da Nang, Can Tho and
townships in Viet Nam (The Leader, 2021).
2.3 Price elasticity of supply, demand in Vietnam’s aftermath Covid-19
After the COVID-19 pandemic, both price elasticity of demand and price elasticity of
supply in Vietnam’s food economy were affected significantly, However, the effects differ
depending on the type of food.
2.3.1 Price Elasticity of Demand (PED)
During the pandemic, Vietnam’s food demand showed different levels of elasticity
depending on the kind of food. For staple foods like rice, vegetables, and meat, demand
was relatively inelastic. These foods are necessities, and people continue to buy them
even though the price increases. On the other hand, luxury or unnecessary items like
snacks and beverages, demand became more elastic.
2.3.2 Price Elasticity of Supply (PES)
 Due to Covid-19 interruptions, the food sector’s price elasticity of supply was mainly
inelastic in the short-term. The pandemic created significant supply chain disruptions,
especially for perishable items that need to be delivered just in time, such fruits and
vegetables. Overall, the supply of food in VietNam during the pandemic was less
responsive to price changes due to logistical and labor limitations, particularly for
perishable goods.
2.4 Empirical evidence
2.4.1 Post-pandemic effects: Studies indicate that global food prices have surged,
largely due to supply chain issues and shifts in consumer behavior.
Supply chain issues
A table summarizing the supply chain issues that led to a surge in food prices after
COVID-19

Supply Chain Issue Impact on Food Prices

Labor Shortages Reduced workforce led to decreased

production and higher labor costs,
increasing food prices.

Raw Material Shortages Shortages of key ingredients and

packaging materials led to higher
production costs.

Supply Chain Disruptions Disruptions in the supply chain caused by

lockdowns and restrictions affected the
availability and cost of food items.

Increased Demand Panic buying and stockpiling increased

demand, leading to higher prices due to
limited supply.

Export Restrictions Some countries imposed export restrictions

to secure their own food supplies, leading
to reduced global supply and higher prices.

Logistical Challenges Challenges in logistics and distribution due

to pandemic-related restrictions and health
measures.
 Increased Operational Costs Higher costs for safety measures,
sanitization, and compliance with health
regulations increased overall prices.

Some examples of famous food chains in Vietnam that faced supply chain issues after
COVID-19:
McDonald's in Vietnam struggled with supply chain disruptions, affecting the availability of
certain menu items (VNS, 2020).
Jollibee also encountered supply chain issues, impacting its ability to meet customer
demand (VNS, 2020).
VinMart had to increase prices on several food products, including fresh produce and
packaged goods, to cope with the rising costs of supply chain disruptions (Vietcetera,
2021).
Shifts in consumer behavior.
COVID-19 significantly altered how consumers shop and spend, which in turn
affected food prices.

Shift in Consumer Behavior Impact on Food Prices

Increased Online Shopping Higher demand for online grocery

delivery led to increased operational
costs, which were passed on to
consumers as higher prices.

Home Cooking and Stockpiling Increased demand for groceries and

home cooking essentials led to higher
prices due to supply chain disruptions
and increased production costs.

Focus on Health and Wellness Higher demand for healthy and organic
products led to increased prices for these
items as consumers prioritized health
and nutrition.

Sustainability Concerns Increased interest in sustainable and

eco-friendly products led to higher prices
for these items due to the costs
associated with sustainable production
 practices.

Conclusion: The combination of supply chain issues and shift in consumer behavior
leading to higher prices for food products.
2.4.2 In the context of Vietnam:
The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to increased costs for raw
materials. There has been a significant rise in food prices, particularly for staples such as
rice, vegetables, and meat, following the pandemic (Viet Nam News, 2021)
A comparison table of food prices in Vietnam before and after the COVID-19
pandemic:

Food Item Price before COVID- Price after COVID- Percentage increase
19 (per kg) 19 (per kg)

Rice 5,000 VND 6,250 VND 25%

Vegetables 20,000 VND 25,000 VND 25%

Meat (chicken) 50,000 VND 62,500 VND 25%

Meat (beef) 80,000 VND 100,000 VND 25%

The table provided clearly illustrates the significant rise in food prices in Vietnam following
the COVID-19 pandemic. Consistent percentage increase suggests that the pandemic had
a widespread impact across various types of food products. The increase in the price of
rice is particularly noteworthy. As a staple food in Vietnam, a 25% increase can have a
substantial impact on household budgets, especially for lower-income families. The price
increases for vegetables and meats are also significant.
Some large food chains in Vietnam that increased food prices after COVID-19:
Saigon Co.op had to raise prices on various food items due to rising production and
transportation costs. Items such as cooking oil, milk, and instant noodles saw price hikes
as suppliers passed on increased costs to retailers.
Big C also raised prices on various food items due to increased production and
transportation costs. Items such as dairy products, meat, and packaged foods saw price
hikes.
Lotte Mart experienced price increases for many food items, particularly imported goods,
due to higher shipping and logistics costs.

3. What has been happening in reality?

 In Vietnam, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a serious crisis in the food supply
chain, resulting in rising prices. This challenge was even greater for fresh produce, which
relies on transportation over long distances to reach consumers. According to the latest
forecasts from the United Nations, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
agricultural sector has been extensive, causing an unprecedented level of instability in
global food supply chains (Bao Dau Tu, 2021). Furthermore, social distancing measures
led to the closure of many local markets, resulting in supply shortages.
Vietnamese consumer shopping habits also changed significantly during the
pandemic. Panic buying and stockpiling of food occurred in many areas. Households
affected by COVID-19 were forced to cut back on spending, leading to a noticeable
increase in the consumption of instant foods like noodles and frozen products, as these
items were convenient and more cost-effective. (Nguyen Thi Hanh, 2022) Additionally, the
shift from dining out to home-cooked meals drove up the prices of essential food items.
Online shopping became not only essential but widespread, putting even more pressure
on food transportation, which was already strained. All of these factors contributed to a
sharp increase in food prices during that period.
The shortage of agricultural workers led to a decline in crop production, resulting in
a reduced supply of agricultural products. As a result, input costs for food also rose
significantly. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAO), the Food Price Index in January 2021 reached 113.3, an 11% higher than last year,
the highest in six years (Tuoi Tre, 2021). Similarly, transportation costs also rose due to
the challenges in logistics, compounded by increasing fuel prices. At that time, the overall
cost of goods was climbing across the board, making the rise in food prices inevitable.
After the COVID-19 pandemic, it seemed as though prices would return to normal.
However, that was not the case, as events like wars and continuous natural disasters
made it even more difficult for prices to stabilize. One of the key reasons for the soaring
food prices is that Russia and Ukraine supply nearly a third of the world's wheat and
barley, as well as two-thirds of global sunflower oil exports (Thuc San, 2022). Although
prices have stabilized compared to the peak during the pandemic, they are still
significantly higher than before the outbreak. Even though the food price crisis seems to
have eased, prices remain 27% higher than in 2019 (VTV, 2023).
4. What would you suggest to improve the situation?
4.1 Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience. The Role of Government and Business in
Strengthening Food Production and Distribution
 In the context of food supply chains in Vietnam the government can be regarded as
the main stakeholder. One of the major tasks is the development of infrastructure (such as
network of roads, ports, and cold storage) enabling efficient and quick delivery of
foodstuffs from farms to consumers. For example, the development of the Cai Mep-Thi Vai
deep-water port in southern Vietnam has facilitated the export of agricultural products,
enhancing trade and reducing delays during adverse weather conditions.In addition, cold
storage facility investment will maintain the quality of the perishable food products namely,
fruits, vegetables, seafood and so on, which minimizes waste and guarantees the
accessibility of the supply even in times of crises (World Bank, 2020).
Business enterprises in Vietnam are also making capital expenditures on
technologies that seek to enhance food sales systems. Digital logistics management
platform solutions that utilize machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and big data
make such schemes capable of estimating demand with high precision and managing
supply chains efficiently. For example, VinaFood, which is one of the largest food
distributors in Vietnam, applied AI technology into inventory monitoring systems and
supply chain management. Due to Covid-19, when demand increases, and when labor
shortages stretch the limits of conventional supply chains, this technological strategy has
become especially significant (VinaFood, 2021).
4.2 Encouraging Local Farming in Order to Curb Imports and Enhance Food Security.
Increasing local food production remains one of the most effective ways of
controlling the negative effects associated with the high levels of imports and especially
maintaining food security due to climate change and globalization. For Vietnam, a country
with vast agricultural capabilities, emphasizing on providing farmers with more support and
more importantly, modern technology will increase productivity, reduce external shock
risks and provide food security for the nation.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, MARD of Vietnam has stressed
the need for the adoption of ecological forms of agriculture, which is significant in terms of
decreasing imports and ultimately improving food security in the country. This requires use
of modern farming techniques like AI, IoT, and modernized irrigation systems to increase
production efficiency. In addition, it shows Vietnam’s involvement in international initiatives
on food security strategies such as those promoted in COP28 is also committed to
adopting agricultural practices that are sustainable (Viet Nam News, 2022)
To foster domestic agricultural production the other most important aspect is
productivity enhancement through technological improvements. The use of technologies in
production such as precision farming, automated irrigation systems, drones for monitoring
and harvesting, has been useful in enhancing efficiency, and reducing the costs of
production.
4.3 Regulating Input Costs: Controlling Raw Materials and Transportation to Stabilize
Food Prices and Protect Consumers
Eating out within a controlled market such as Vietnam will require controlling the
elements of price, especially the input costs such as materials and transport but such an
approach will not work without changing people’s attitudes towards food production.
Regulating the elements of food production price changes will affect the prices of food
products directed to the consumers as producers will definitely have to change the prices
in consideration of production costs.. Thus, formulating regulations to control these input
prices will help in dealing with the rising consumer prices without the risk of overcharging
them and also guarantee food availability in the country.
Logistic expenses also play an important role in coming up with food prices. Since
food items have to be moved over a large area, prolonged transportation will increase the
food price as a result of increased fuel costs or the inefficiency of the transportation
networks. In this respect, the state has undertaken to improve eating and transportation
facilities, as well as to create proper networks for the movement of goods within shorter
times. Moreover, the provision of fuel and transport assistance subsidies is designed to
reduce the effects of high transportation costs on food prices. These initiatives in turn help
to ensure that food is made available to rich and poor consumers alike within reasonable
pricing limits for them, even during the periods of economic downturns (Capital Security
newspaper, 2023)
4.4 Supporting Vulnerable Consumers
The ever-increasing food prices have become a social problem in many nations and
Vietnam is no exception. This has been due to high food prices, inflation and global supply
chain constraints. The risk of food price increases is more severe in low income
households and their families. In order to reduce these negative impacts, the State and
businesses can advance fill in the gaps of support for essential food commodities and
provide social assistance benefits so that these groups do not face hunger and distress
even when the prices and costs are on the upward trend.
The initial pillar fosters inclusive economic recovery through a reduction in taxation
on private sector enterprises, enhancing the availability of financial support to the at-risk
populations, narrowing the employment gender divide, and increasing access to finance.
The second pillar is aimed at climate-friendly measures for trade policy, e-government
intervention, and the promotion of the use of clean energy sources.
 “In the spirit of our long-term, trusted and productive partnership, we are proud to
support Vietnam at the time when the economy is recovering from the biggest shock of the
past decades and when so many uncertainties remain around the pandemic” according to
World Bank Country Director for Vietnam Carolyn Turk. “I believe that the range of policy
actions supported by this operation will not only create a strong foundation for the
immediate recovery from the COVID-19 crisis but also benefit Vietnam in the longer run”
(World Bank, 2021).

5. Conclusion
In conclusion, the fluctuations of food prices have made a significant impact on the global
economy. By understanding the root causes of instability in food prices—ranging from
supply and demand, market and global trade policies from a microeconomic perspective,
including gathering intel about the recent happenings in reality and diagnosing it,
economists can develop more effective and efficient strategies for the food security system
that is affordable, nutritious for everyone, and contributes to a stable global economy.
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