Nifty & Market Outlook Analysis
Nifty & Market Outlook Analysis
Suresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
Suresh Rathi Market Forecast Friday
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment 22nd November, 2024
# Good Morning & Welcome to Friday’s trading session at Dalal Street, dated INDICES
November 22nd 2024.
Nifty 23350 -0.72%
# In early action, Gift Nifty is comfortably in the green.
Bank Nifty 50373 -0.50%
# Our call of the day however which suggests that Nifty is likely to struggle to find a
pathway higher as bears are likely to step-in on any intraday strength. Nifty Auto Index 23146 -0.91%
# Now, here is our preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty: Nifty FMCG Index 55694 -1.21%
Nifty (23350): Sell between 23450-23500 zone. Stop at 24151. Targets 23275/23167. Nifty Infra Index 8306 -0.89%
Aggressive targets at 21281-21500 zone. Nifty IT Index 41953 0.49%
Bank Nifty (50373): Sell between 50550-50750 zone. Stop at 52301. Targets Nifty Media Index 1899 -2.40%
49700/49283. Aggressive targets at 46100-47000 zone.
Nifty Midcap Index 15168 -0.11%
# The renewed pessimism at Dalal Street is linked to Indian billionaire Gautam Adani
who has been charged with fraud in the US, which has accused him of orchestrating a Nifty Metal Index 8717 -2.28%
$250m bribery scheme and concealing it to raise money in the US. Nifty Pharma Index 21740 -0.13%
# Gautam Adani has been indicted for fraud by US prosecutors and arrest warrants Nifty Reality Index 975 0.93%
issued for him and his nephew.
Nifty Smallcap Index 17597 -0.46%
# Kenyan President William Ruto has cancelled proposed deals with Adani Group.
Sensex 77156 -0.54%
Ruto also directed the cancellation of a more than $700-million deal the energy ministry
had signed with a unit of the Adani Group to construct power transmission lines. SGX Nifty 23352 -0.06%
Meanwhile, the exit polls show a bumper win for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Key Levels to Watch
Nifty Support 23167/22891
# Buzzing Stocks:
Nifty Resistance 23798/24537
1) The Adani Group is experiencing its worst trading day since the Hindenburg
controversy was published in January 2023.
The street will also closely monitor Boutique investment firm GQG Partners
Pivot Level
which was among the initial investors to acquire a stake in the Adani Group Nifty 24237
following the Hindenburg scandal in 2023.
As of the quarter that ended on September 30, GQG Partners held stakes in six Technical Strategy
Adani Group companies, which ranged between 1.5% to 2%.
GQG Stake as of September 30, 2024 Tejas Networks 1268
I. Ambuja Cements 2.05% Action Buy
ii. Adani Energy Solutions 1.89%
Target 1701
iii. Adani Power 1.76%
iv. Adani Green Energy 1.62% Support 1121/961
v. Adani Enterprises 1.45% Resistance 1495/2000
vi.Adani Ports 1.46%
Holding Period 12-15 Months
2) NTPC’s wholly owned subsidiary NTPC Green Energy’s initial public offer got
subscribed 88% on the second day of share sale on Thursday.
TEJAS NETWORKS
The Rs 10,000-crore initial share sale with a price band of Rs 102-108 per share, will be CMP 1268
mode. Massive breakdown on the daily charts on cards. Key hurdles 1784. Product Portfolio: Company derives ~91% (Rs 468.34 Cr) of revenue from the
sale of products and remaining ~9% (Rs 46.48 Cr) from delivering services.
Company’s products are broadly categorized into (1) Broadband Access, (2)
Metro, and (3) Long-haul networks.
FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA: Tejas Networks Q2 2025 Earnings Highlights:
Financials ▪ Q2FY 25 Net Revenue: INR 2,811 Cr (7.1x YoY) ▪ Q2FY 25 Profit
# The Put-Call Open Interest Ratio was at 0.85 for Nifty. After Tax: INR 275 Cr ▪ Order book at end of Q2: INR 4,845 Cr
Wireless Business ▪ Ramped up 4G/5G RAN shipments for BSNL’s pan-India
# The fear index, India VIX, which gauges the volatility in the Indian stock markets, network; cumulatively shipped equipment for 58,000+ sites ▪ Received
additional orders for densification of installed 4G sites in a few circles
ended higher by 2.11% at 15.99 points. Wireline Business ▪ Selected for PTN and DWDM equipment from a Tier-1
Telco in India for capacity expansion ▪ Continuing success in the critical
# In Thursday’s session, FIIs turned out to be net sellers to the tune of Rupees 5321 infrastructure segment; selected by a leading state power utility and in smart
city projects ▪ Good traction for GPON and DWDM products in international
crores while DIIs bought shares to the tune of Rupees 4200 crores. markets with new customer wins in Americas and Africa ▪ Received initial order
for network modernization win in US
# The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 23000-24200 Technical Outlook: The recent sequence of higher high/low is intact in all
time frames with bullish a probable bullish Flag pattern break on the monthly
zone. Maximum Call OI is at 24000 followed by 24500 strike prices. So, the 24000 mark charts. The 200-DMA of the stock is around 1112 levels and will act as major
support.
is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Preferred Strategy: Look to accumulate at CMP, and on dips
between 1000-1050 zone, targeting 1500/1751 and then
Maximum Put open interest stands at 21700 levels followed by 23000 levels. aggressive targets at 2000 with stop below 877. Holding Period:
12-15 months.
Call writing was seen at 23400 and then at 23500 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 23100 and then at 22900 strike prices.
# Stocks banned in F&O segment: AARTI INDUSTRIES, ABFRL, GRANULES, GNFC, HIND COPPER, IGL, ADANI ENT, NALCO
# Nifty: In Thursday’s trade, Nifty opened on a cautious note and the selling intensified as the day progressed. In the process, Nifty reversed
its Tuesday’s gains and formed a big bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts.
Nifty ended 0.72% below the dotted lines. Nifty’s all-time-high continues to be at 26277.35 mark.
The technical landscape suggests Nifty’s major support at 23167 mark. Intermonth support seen at 21281 mark.
Nifty’s hurdles seen at 23603/24107/24337 mark and then at 25211 mark.
Nifty’s 200 DMA at 23583 mark.
ECONOMIC CUES:
# The US CPI for October was in line with expectations, sending Treasury bond prices higher and their yields lower. Yields had risen to their
highest levels since July in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win as the bond market worried about the potential for inflationary policies like
tariffs to stymy rate-cuts in 2025.
# Chinese consumer inflation in October and another decline in factory-gate prices, highlighting deflation risks despite Beijing’s late-
September stimulus efforts.
China’s producer prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year in October 2024, following a 2.8% drop in the previous month and going beyond market
expectations of a 2.5% decline. This marked the 25th consecutive month of producer deflation and the sharpest contraction since November
2023, reflecting persistently weak domestic demand despite ongoing efforts by Beijing to break the trend.
# Technical Overview:
Strictly speaking, ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ is a temporary price recovery following losses, that is followed by more losses.
Immediate downside risk on Nifty is placed at 23157 mark; aggressive downside targets are at Nifty’s psychological 23000 mark.
SRF & BAJAJ FINANCE appear weak as the recent sequence of lower high/low intact on daily charts.
Derivatives Strategies
Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Option Call: BUY NIFTY 28th NOV CE Strike Price 23400 at CMP Premium +01 vs -28
164. Maximum Loss: Rs 4100. Profit: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Call Nifty Future OI 1.12 crores (-2.29%)
Option if NIFTY NOVEMBER FUTURES moves below 23135.
Analyst’s Remark: Rebound play likely amidst oversold conditions. Bank Nifty Future OI 25.24 lakhs (-5.93%)
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 24000 Strike
Derivatives Vol. No of Turnover
Price, followed by 24500 Strike Price for 28th November Series. Short
(INR in Cr.) contracts (Rs. In cr.)
Buildup was seen at strike prices 23300-24600.
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 21700 Index Future Volumes 1,59,730 10,204
followed by 23000 strike prices for 28th November series. Long Buildup
was seen at strike prices 21700-23400. Stock Future Volumes 9,46,028 59,346
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 52000 Index Option Volumes 10,99,32,091 66,27,321
Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 46000 Strike
Price. Stock Option Volumes 24,70,177 1,62,300
• Stocks banned in F&O Segment: AARTIIND, ABFRL, ADANIENT, 23300 1.05 (+2525%)
GNFC, GRANULES, HINDCOPPER, IGL, NATIONALUM.
Puts
• New in Ban: ADANIENT, NATIONALUM.
22700 0.6 (+46%)
• Out of Ban: NIL. 22800 0.82 (+52%)
22900 0.64 (+83%)
Stock CMP Support Resistance 21 DMA 200 DMA Intraday Short Term Long Term
Nifty 50 23350 22883 23817 24077 23583 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Bank Nifty 50373 49365 51380 51297 49823 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIFTY PVT BANK 24825 24328 25321 25169 24835 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIFTYOILGAS 10446 10238 10655 11207 12044 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIfty Energy 35789 35074 36505 38537 40763 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Fin. Services 23273 22808 23739 23748 22491 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Auto 23146 22683 23609 23670 23728 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty FMCG 55694 54580 56808 58209 58092 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty IT 41953 41114 42792 41721 38172 DOWN UP DOWN
Nifty Infra 8306 8140 8472 8680 8778 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty MNC 27606 27054 28158 28943 28765 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Media 1899 1861 1937 1950 1996 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Metal 8717 8543 8892 9205 9146 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty MidCap 50 15168 14864 15471 15501 15170 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty PSE 9592 9400 9784 10060 10319 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty PSU Bank 6319 6193 6445 6637 7008 DOWN DOWN UP
Nifty Pharma 21740 21305 22175 22391 20632 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Realty 975 956 995 981 1002 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Smallcap 100 17597 17245 17949 18171 17601 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.
R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.
S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.
If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.
This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
WTI CRUDE Crude oil rebounds amidst oversold conditions. Interweek strategy: Buy at
Dow rebounds. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP. Targets 44222 and then
DOW JONES 43939 43651 43222 44222 43655 Positive at 43655 with stop at 43622
DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd.
and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or
solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by
you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and
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liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have
exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information
contained in this recommendation, but Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. or any of its
subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or
damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information
contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used
to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to
fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might
Suresh Rathi be contrary to recommendations issued by Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. in the
company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
purely from technical analysis. Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. has based this document
on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not
independently verified; Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. makes no guarantee,
Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or