MMSS-05 Rev.
1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 2
Tropical Storm MAN-YI
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD.
Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Storm MAN-YI was estimated based on
all available data at 1,965 km East of Eastern Visayas
(OUTSIDE PAR) (12.3°N, 143.5°E).
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa
Present Movement
West southwestward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 11.8 141.3 1,730 km East of Eastern Visayas (OUTSIDE PAR) 85 TS W 25
13 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 11.2 138.2 1,395 km East of Eastern Visayas (OUTSIDE PAR) 100 STS W 30
14 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 11.0 134.8 1,025 km East of Eastern Visayas 120 TY W 30
14 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 11.0 131.5 630 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 140 TY W 30
15 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 11.5 128.6 315 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 150 TY W 25
15 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 12.5 126.3 180 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar 155 TY WNW 25
16 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 14.5 122.4 Over the coastal waters of Jomalig, Quezon 150 TY WNW 20
17 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 16.5 117.9 265 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 100 STS WNW 20
18 November 2024
Page 1 of 2
Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-05 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 2
Tropical Storm MAN-YI
Issued at 11:00 AM, 13 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, MAN-YI is forecast to move southwestward over the next 12 hours
before turning generally westward while approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
MAN-YI may enter the PAR region by tomorrow (14 November) evening as “PEPITO”.
Within the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will move westward or west northwestward on Friday (15 November) before turning
generally northwestward on Saturday through the rest of the forecast period. On the track forecast, PEPITO may make landfall
over the eastern coast of Luzon during the weekend (16 or 17 November). It must be emphasized that the track may still
shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track.
MAN-YI is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm today within 24 hours and reach typhoon category by tomorrow
afternoon or evening. The possibility of rapid intensification is not ruled out. Since this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon
category while over the Philippine Sea, the possibility for MAN-YI to reach super typhoon category prior to landfall is
also not ruled out. Regardless, MAN-YI may make landfall at peak intensity.
Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards and due to the shifting track
forecast of MAN-YI, most areas in Luzon are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation
from MAN-YI which may cause considerable impacts. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be
emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or
forecast confidence cone.
This tropical cyclone may bring potentially risky or hazardous sea conditions (at least moderate to rough or worse) over
the eastern seaboard of the country beginning on late Friday or on Saturday.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue
monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Page 2 of 2
Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP
“tracking the sky…helping the country.”
Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
