FRAGILE

STATES
INDEX
2015

T H E F U N D F O R P E A C E
 The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works
to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training
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No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.

Report Edited by Assessment Directed by

J. J. Messner Nate Haken

Report Written by
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Hannah Blyth, Kendall Lawrence, Sebastian Pavlou Graham, Felipe Umaña

Assessment Supported by
Alex Young, Ania Skinner, Katie Cornelius

Circulation: PUBLIC

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the Fragile States Index
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Fragile States Index 2015:
Overview

The Fragile States Index is an annual

The Index in Figures ranking of 178 nations based on their levels of
Index of Country Analysis
2015 Map 4 stability and the pressures they face. The Central African Republic 18
2015 Scores and Rankings 6 Index is based on The Fund for Peace’s Cuba 12, 28
2015 Scores by Indicator 35 proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool
Gambia 15
Decade Trends Map 8 (CAST) analytical platform. Based on
Georgia 12
Decade Trends Rankings 10 comprehensive social science methodology,
Greece 30
data from three primary sources is triangulated
Analysis of the 2015 Index and subjected to critical review to obtain final Guinea 22

Highlights of Fragile States Index 2015 14 scores for the Fragile States Index. Millions of India 14

Very High Alert C.A.R.: Worst Violence in History 18 documents are analyzed every year, and by Iran 25
High Alert Arab Spring Turns to Winter 18 applying highly specialized search Iraq 19
Nigeria: Beating the Odds 20 parameters, scores are apportioned for every Kenya 22
Mapping Conflict Data in the Delta 22 country based on twelve key political, social
Lebanon 25
Alert West Africa Confronts Ebola 22 and economic indicators and over 100 sub-
Liberia 23
A Tough Neighborhood: Kenya 22 indicators that are the result of years of
Libya 19
High Warning Behind the Scores 24 painstaking expert social science research.
Warning Ukraine’s Fall from Grace 26 Nigeria 14, 20

Low Warning Cuba Comes in from the Cold 28 The 2015 Fragile States Index, the 11th Portugal 13
South Africa: A City on a Hill? 28 edition of the annual Index, comprises data Russia 13, 24, 27
Less Stable Acropolis Wow: Greece Slips 30 collected between January 1, 2014 and Sierra Leone 13, 23
Stable Beneath the U.S. Score 32 December 31, 2014 — thus, certain well-
South Africa 28
Sustainable European High Achievers 32 publicized events that have occurred since
Syria 18
Sparkling Finnish 34 January 1, 2015 are not covered by the 2015
Ukraine 13, 26
Index.
About United States of America 32

Methodology and Indicators 16 Yemen 14, 18

About The Fund for Peace 39 Zimbabwe 13

Interpreting the Fragile States Index Findings

The Fragile States Index scores should will notice a significant de-emphasis on rankings are now printed in reverse order, and
be interpreted with the understanding that the rankings, as it is our firm belief that a country’s our analysis now focuses more on broad
lower the score, the better. Therefore, a score (and indeed, its indicator scores) are a categories rather than specific rankings. We
reduced score indicates an improvement, just far more important and accurate indicator of a have also changed our “Heat Map”, whereby
as a higher score indicates greater instability. country’s performance, and that as much as “cooler” colors are now applied to more less at
For an explanation of the various indicators countries should be compared against other -risk categories. We trust this will provide a
and their icons, please refer to page 17. Also, countries, it is more useful to compare a less alarming view of the globe.
in a departure from previous years, readers country against itself, over time. Hence, our

www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace

Fragile States Index:
Fragility in the World 2015

Greenland

United States Iceland

Norway
of America

n
e de
Fin

Sw
Canada DK
United Kingdom
Ireland NL
BE Germany Poland
CZ
LX SK
CH AT HU
France
SI R
HV BA RS

Ita
ly
ME MK
United States of America Portugal Spain AL

TN Malta

co
r oc
Mo
Algeria
Libya
Western
Mexico Bahamas Sahara
Cuba Haiti
Cape Verde Mauritania
Belize Jamaica Dominican Republic Mali
Se Niger
Honduras Antigua & Barbuda n Chad
Guatemala eg
Barbados The Gambia al
El Salvador Nicaragua BF
Grenada Guinea-Bissau
Trinidad & Tobago Guinea

Ghana
Costa Rica Guyana Côte Nigeria
Venezuela Sierra Leone

on
Panama Suriname d’Ivoire
C.A.R

ro
me
French Guiana Liberia
Togo Benin

Ca
Colombia
Country Abbreviations
Sao Tome & Principe GQ
Ecuador
AE U.A.E. DJ Djibouti LI Lithuania Gabon CG Dem
Repub
AL Albania DK Denmark LV Latvia
Co
AM Armenia EE Estonia LX Luxembourg
Brazil
AT Austria ER Eritrea ME Montenegro Peru
Angola
AZ Azerbaijan GE Georgia MK Macedonia

BA Bosnia & Herz. GQ Eq. Guinea MW Malawi Bolivia

BD Bangladesh GR Greece NL Netherlands
Namibia
Pa

BE Belgium HU Hungary QA Qatar Bo

r
ag
ua
y

BF Burkina Faso HV Croatia RS Serbia

BG Bulgaria IL Israel RW Rwanda S

BH Bahrain JO Jordan SG Singapore Chile A

BI Burundi KG Kyrgyz Rep. SI Slovenia Argentina Uruguay

BT Bhutan KH Cambodia SK Slovakia

CG Congo (Rep.) KW Kuwait TJ Tajikistan

CY Cyprus LA Laos TN Tunisia

CZ Czech Rep. LB Lebanon UG Uganda

 Sustainable 10

20
30
nd

EE
LV
Russia Stable 40
I
50
Belarus

Ukraine 60
MD Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Warning 70
omania
Uz
BG bek
GE ista
n KG
GR Turkey
AZ Tur
kme North Korea 80
nist TJ Japan
an

CY LB Syria China
South Korea 90
Iraq Iran Afghanistan
IL
JO
KW
BH
Pakistan
N ep
al
BT
Alert 100
Egypt Saudi QA
AE
110
Arabia Taiwan
India Myanmar
BD 120
an

LA
Om

Th
ail

ER Yemen
an

Sudan
d

KH Vietnam Philippines
DJ

South Ethiopia
Sri Lanka
Sudan Brunei
lia Malaysia Micronesia
ma Maldives
UG So
Kenya SG
cratic RW
c of the Papua New Guinea
BI
ngo Seychelles
Tanzania Solomon Islands
Indonesia Timor-Leste
Comoros Samoa
MW
Zambia ue Vanuatu
biq Fiji
z am
Mo
r
asca

Zimbabwe
Mauritius
ag

French
swana
Mad

Australia Polynesia

Swaziland
outh
rica Lesotho

New Zealand
Fragile States Index:
Assessing State Fragility in 2015
Very Sustainable Very Stable Low Warning Warning
17.8 Finland (178) 40.9 Malta (=151) 61.9 Albania (125) 70.5 Guyana (107)

Sustainable 40.9 Spain (=151) 62.1 Seychelles (124) 70.8 Namibia (106)

20.2 Sweden (177) 41.5 Chile (150) 62.6 Brazil (123) 71.2 Dominican Republic (105)

20.8 Norway (176) 42.6 Slovak Republic (149) 62.8 Botswana (122) 71.3 Gabon (=103)

21.5 Denmark (175) 43.0 Lithuania (148) 63.0 Brunei Darussalam (121) 71.3 Paraguay (=103)

22.2 Luxembourg (174) 43.2 Italy (147) 63.4 Grenada (120) 71.4 El Salvador (102)

22.3 Switzerland (173) 43.8 Estonia (146) 64.3 Bahrain (119) 71.6 Saudi Arabia (101)

22.6 New Zealand (172) 45.2 Mauritius (145) 64.5 Macedonia (118) 71.8 Mexico (100)

23.4 Iceland (171) 46.2 United Arab Emirates (144) 64.6 Jamaica (117) 71.9 Ghana (=98)

24.3 Australia (170) 46.3 Qatar (143) 65.3 Belize (116) 71.9 Peru (=98)

24.7 Ireland (169) 46.7 Costa Rica (142) 65.9 Malaysia (115) 72.4 Vietnam (97)

25.7 Canada (168) 47.6 Argentina (141) 66.2 Cyprus (114) 73.0 Moldova (96)

26.0 Austria (167) 48.6 Latvia (140) 67.0 South Africa (113) 73.5 Cape Verde (95)

26.8 Netherlands (166) 49.1 Hungary (139) 67.4 Cuba (112) 73.6 Micronesia (94)

28.1 Germany (165) 49.3 Barbados (138) 68.2 Samoa (111) 73.7 Sao Tome & Principe (93)

29.7 Portugal (164) Stable 68.3 Kazakhstan (110) 73.8 Serbia (92)

Highly Stable 51.0 Croatia (137) 68.4 Suriname (109) 74.2 Maldives (91)

30.4 Belgium (163) 51.6 Bahamas (136) 69.7 Armenia (108) 74.5 Turkey (90)

31.6 Slovenia (162) 52.0 Oman (135) 74.6 Morocco (89)

33.4 United Kingdom (161) 52.6 Greece (134)

33.7 France (160) 54.2 Romania (=132)

34.4 Singapore (159) 54.2 Montenegro (=132)

35.3 United States (158) 54.6 Panama (131)

36.0 Japan (157) 55.4 Bulgaria (130)

36.3 South Korea (156) 57.0 Mongolia (129)

36.5 Uruguay (155) 57.5 Kuwait (128)

37.4 Czech Republic (154) 57.8 Antigua & Barbuda (127)

39.8 Poland (153) 58.7 Trinidad & Tobago (126)

Warning High Warning Alert High Alert
75.0 Indonesia (88) 80.0 Russia (65) 90.0 Egypt (38) 100.0 Cote d’Ivoire (=15)

75.6 Belarus (87) 80.4 Guatemala (64) 90.2 Rwanda (37) 100.0 Zimbabwe (=15)

75.8 Tunisia (86) 80.8 Tanzania (63) 90.5 Nepal (36) 102.4 Nigeria (14)

75.9 Ecuador (85) 82.2 Kyrgyz Republic (62) 90.6 Sri Lanka (=34) 102.9 Pakistan (13)

76.3 Ukraine (84) 82.5 Colombia (61) 90.6 Timor-Leste (=34) 104.5 Haiti (=11)

76.4 China (83) 83.0 Senegal (60) 90.8 Congo (Republic) (33) 104.5 Iraq (=11)

76.8 Fiji (82) 83.3 Comoros (59) 91.8 Bangladesh (32) 104.9 Guinea (10)

76.9 Jordan (81) 83.4 Papua New Guinea (=57) 91.9 Sierra Leone (31) 107.9 Afghanistan (=8)

77.3 Azerbaijan (80) 83.4 Tajikistan (=57) 93.1 Mali (30) 107.9 Syria (=8)

77.4 Bosnia & Herzegovina (79) 83.6 Madagascar (56) 93.8 North Korea (29) 108.1 Yemen (7)

77.5 Turkmenistan (78) 84.5 Laos (55) 94.3 Cameroon (28) 108.4 Chad (6)

78.0 Bolivia (77) 84.8 Equatorial Guinea (54) 94.7 Myanmar (Burma) (27) 109.7 Congo (Dem. Rep.) (5)

78.2 Honduras (76) 85.2 Zambia (53) 94.9 Mauritania (26) Very High Alert
78.6 Venezuela (75) 85.4 Gambia (=51) 95.3 Libya (25) 110.8 Sudan (4)

78.7 Bhutan (74) 85.4 Uzbekistan (=51) 96.9 Eritrea (24) 111.9 Central African Rep. (3)

78.8 Benin (73) 85.9 Solomon Islands (50) 97.0 Uganda (23) 114.0 Somalia (2)

79.0 Nicaragua (72) 86.3 Philippines (=48) 97.3 Liberia (22) 114.5 South Sudan (1)

79.1 Thailand (71) 86.3 Swaziland (=48) 97.4 Kenya (21)

79.3 Georgia (70) 86.8 Togo (47) 97.5 Ethiopia (20)

79.4 India (=68) 86.9 Malawi (=45) 97.8 Niger (19)

79.4 Israel & the West Bank (=68) 86.9 Mozambique (=45) 98.1 Burundi (18)

79.6 Algeria (67) 87.2 Iran (44) 99.9 Guinea Bissau (17)

79.9 Lesotho (66) 87.9 Cambodia (43)

88.1 Angola (=40)

88.1 Djibouti (=40)

88.1 Lebanon (=40)

89.2 Burkina Faso (39)

Fragile States Index:
Decade Trends, 2006-2015

Greenland

United States Iceland

Norway
of America

n
e de
Fin

Sw
Canada DK
United Kingdom
Ireland NL
BE Germany Poland
CZ
LX SK
CH AT HU
France
SI R
HV BA RS

Ita
ly
ME MK
United States of America Portugal Spain AL

TN Malta

co
r oc
Mo
Algeria
Libya
Western
Mexico Bahamas Sahara
Cuba Haiti
Cape Verde Mauritania
Belize Jamaica Dominican Republic Mali
Se Niger
Honduras Antigua & Barbuda n Chad
Guatemala eg
Barbados The Gambia al
El Salvador Nicaragua BF
Grenada Guinea-Bissau
Trinidad & Tobago Guinea

Ghana
Costa Rica Guyana Côte Nigeria
Venezuela Sierra Leone

on
Panama Suriname d’Ivoire
C.A.R

ro
me
French Guiana Liberia
Togo Benin

Ca
Colombia
Country Abbreviations
Sao Tome & Principe GQ
Ecuador
AE U.A.E. DJ Djibouti LI Lithuania Gabon CG Dem
Repub
AL Albania DK Denmark LV Latvia
Co
AM Armenia EE Estonia LX Luxembourg
Brazil
AT Austria ER Eritrea ME Montenegro Peru
Angola
AZ Azerbaijan GE Georgia MK Macedonia

BA Bosnia & Herz. GQ Eq. Guinea MW Malawi Bolivia

BD Bangladesh GR Greece NL Netherlands
Namibia
Pa

BE Belgium HU Hungary QA Qatar Bo

r
ag
ua
y

BF Burkina Faso HV Croatia RS Serbia

BG Bulgaria IL Israel RW Rwanda S

BH Bahrain JO Jordan SG Singapore Chile A

BI Burundi KG Kyrgyz Rep. SI Slovenia Argentina Uruguay

BT Bhutan KH Cambodia SK Slovakia

CG Congo (Rep.) KW Kuwait TJ Tajikistan

CY Cyprus LA Laos TN Tunisia

CZ Czech Rep. LB Lebanon UG Uganda

 Improvement < -10.0
< -6.0

< -2.0
nland
< -0.5
LI
EE
LV
Russia
Marginal
Belarus Change
Ukraine > +0.5
MD Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Romania
S Uz
bek
> +2.0
BG ista
K GE n KG
GR Turkey
AZ Tur
kme North Korea > +6.0
nist TJ Japan
an

CY LB Syria China
South Korea
> +10.0
Iraq Iran Afghanistan
IL
JO
KW Pakistan
N ep
al
BT
Worsening > +14.0
BH
Egypt Saudi QA
AE
Arabia Taiwan
India Myanmar
BD Points changes are from 2006 to 2015.
an

LA Countries not included in the 2006

Om

Th

Index are calculated from 2007.

ail

ER Yemen
an

Sudan South Sudan is calculated from 2012.

d

KH Vietnam Philippines
DJ

South Ethiopia
Sri Lanka
R. Sudan Brunei
lia Malaysia Micronesia
ma Maldives
UG So
Kenya SG
mocratic RW
blic of the Papua New Guinea
BI
ongo Seychelles
Tanzania Solomon Islands
Indonesia Timor-Leste
Comoros Samoa
MW
Zambia ue Vanuatu
biq Fiji
z am
Mo
r
asca

Zimbabwe
Mauritius
ag

French
otswana
Mad

Australia Polynesia

Swaziland
South
Africa Lesotho

New Zealand
Fragile States Index:
Decade Trends, 2006-2015
Significant Improvement Strong Improvement Some Improvement

–14.5 Cuba (1) –9.5 Moldova (8) –7.6 Latvia (19) –5.9 Luxembourg* –4.3 Timor-Leste*

–14.2 Indonesia (2) –9.3 Colombia (9) –7.6 Cape Verde* –5.6 Saudi Arabia (29) –4.1 Botswana (44)

–13.8 Dominican Rep. (3) –9.2 Bhutan (=10) –7.6 Malta* –5.6 Samoa* –3.9 Guatemala (45)

–11.6 Germany (4) –9.2 Cote d’Ivoire (=10) –7.3 Peru (=20) –5.5 Suriname* –3.6 Kazakhstan (=46)

–11.1 Bosnia & Herz. (5) –9.2 Seychelles* –7.3 Slovak Rep. (=20) –5.4 U.A.E.* –3.6 North Korea (=46)

–10.9 Croatia (6) –9.0 Uzbekistan (12) –7.3 Qatar* –5.3 Ecuador (30) –3.5 South Korea (48)

–10.6 Macedonia (7) –8.9 Belarus (=13) –7.3 Serbia** –5.2 Slovenia (31) –3.4 Laos (=49)

–10.6 Barbados* –8.9 Zimbabwe (=13) –7.2 Estonia (22) –5.0 Panama (32) –3.4 Nicaragua (=49)

–8.9 Trinidad & Tobago* –7.1 Russia (23) –4.9 Bolivia (=33) –3.3 Denmark (=51)

–8.6 Turkmenistan (15) –6.9 Maldives* –4.9 Nepal (=33) –3.3 Kuwait (=51)

–8.5 Bahamas* –6.7 Albania (=24) –4.9 Sao Tome* –3.0 Portugal (53)

–8.4 Romania (16) –6.7 Bulgaria (=24) –4.7 Uruguay (=35) –2.9 Costa Rica (=54)

–8.2 Brunei Darussalam* –6.7 Lithuania (=24) –4.7 Sierra Leone (=35) –2.9 Georgia (=54)

–8.2 Grenada* –6.2 Vietnam (27) –4.7 El Salvador (=35) –2.9 Malawi (=54)

–8.1 Poland (=17) –6.1 China (28) –4.6 Azerbaijan (38) –2.8 Guyana*

–8.1 Kyrgyz Rep. (=17) –6.1 Solomon Islands* –4.5 Bangladesh (=39) –2.7 Rwanda (57)

–7.9 Antigua & Barbuda* –4.5 Iraq (=39) –2.6 Venezuela (58)

–4.5 Belize* –2.3 Gabon (59)

–4.4 Czech Republic (41) –2.2 Jamaica (60)

–4.3 Cyprus (=42) –2.2 Congo (Rep.)*

–4.3 Tajikistan (=42)

Points changes are from 2006 to 2015.

* Country score changes calculated from a base year of
2007 due to their not being included in the 2006 Failed
States Index.
** Country score changes calculated from a base year of
2007 due to their not being independent countries for
the 2006 Failed States Index.
*** Country score changes calculated from a base year of
2012 due to their not being independent countries for
the 2006 Failed States Index.
Marginal Improvement Insignificant Change Some Worsening Worsening Significant Worsening

–1.9 Morocco (61) –0.5 Brazil (=75) +2.3 Australia (95) +6.1 Ireland (115) +10.4 Tunisia (131)

–1.8 Armenia (=62) –0.5 Burkina Faso (=75) +2.3 Iceland* +6.1 South Sudan*** +10.8 Niger (132)

–1.8 Myanmar (=62) –0.4 Congo (D.R.) (=77) +2.4 Hungary (96) +6.4 Belgium (116) +11.3 South Africa (133)

–1.8 Sri Lanka (=62) –0.4 Finland (=77) +2.5 Chad (=97) +6.8 Argentina (117) +11.4 Gambia (=134)

–1.7 Liberia (65) –0.2 Angola (=79) +2.5 Uganda (=97) +7.1 Mauritania (=118) +11.4 Ghana (=134)

–1.5 Sudan (=66) –0.2 Malaysia (=79) +2.5 Tanzania (=97) +7.1 Philippines (=118) +11.5 Greece (=136)

–1.5 Togo (=66) –0.2 Pakistan (=79) +2.6 Canada (100) +7.1 Madagascar* +11.5 Yemen (=136)

–1.4 Mongolia (68) –0.1 Austria (=82) +2.9 Cambodia (101) +7.3 Bahrain* +12.1 Mozambique (138)

–1.4 Montenegro** –0.1 Haiti (=82) +3.2 Iran (=102) +7.6 Lebanon (120) +13.0 Eritrea (139)

–1.3 Mexico (=69) –0.1 Jordan (=82) +3.2 New Zealand (=102) +7.8 Djibouti* +14.4 C.A.R. (140)

–1.3 Netherlands (=69) 0.0 Israel & W.B. (85) +3.3 Mauritius (104) +7.9 Benin (121) +14.5 Guinea Bissau (141)

–1.3 Lesotho* +0.1 Namibia (=86) +3.4 Ukraine (105) +8.0 Japan (=122) Critical Worsening

–1.2 P.N.G. (71) +0.1 Turkey (=86) +3.5 Spain (106) +8.0 Nigeria (=122) +16.9 Senegal (142)

–0.8 United Kingdom (72) +0.1 Micronesia* +3.6 Switzerland (=107) +8.1 Afghanistan (=124) +18.5 Mali (143)

–0.7 Paraguay (73) +0.5 Egypt (88) +3.6 Singapore (=107) +8.1 Somalia (=124) +19.3 Syria (144)

–0.6 France (74) Marginal Worsening +4.0 Norway (109) +8.1 Italy (=124) +26.8 Libya (145)

+0.8 Eq. Guinea (=89) +4.2 Thailand (110) +8.2 Oman (127)

+0.8 U.S.A. (=89) +5.0 Swaziland* +8.8 Kenya (128)

+1.1 Fiji* +5.5 Comoros* +9.0 India (129)

+1.4 Burundi (91) +5.6 Ethiopia (=111) +9.5 Chile (130)

+1.5 Honduras (92) +5.6 Zambia (=111)

+1.8 Algeria (93) +5.9 Cameroon (=113)

+2.0 Sweden (94) +5.9 Guinea (=113)

Springtime for Castro and Cuba;
Winter for Ukraine and Libya
Most Improved, 2014 to 2015 J.J. Messner and Hannah Blyth
–3.4 Cuba (112) 67.4 South Sudan has topped the Fragile improved country year-on-year in 2015, it is
States Index for the second year in also the most improved country over the past
–3.4 Georgia (70) 79.3
succession, as the country continues to be decade. Though the country continues to
–3.4 Portugal (164) 29.7 wracked by internal conflict, fractious politics, experience problems in the provision of public

–2.8 Zimbabwe (16) 100.0 and poverty. South Sudan is joined at the services and issues such as Human Rights
most fragile end of the Index by countries that and State Legitimacy, it has nevertheless
–2.7 Romania (132) 54.2 have long struggled, such as Somalia, Central made great strides economically, driven by the

–2.7 Slovak Republic (149) 42.6 African Republic, Sudan, and D.R. Congo. reform agenda of Raul Castro. It is reasonable
However, a lack of change at the most fragile to assume that, with the thawing of the
–2.6 China (83) 76.4
end of the Index (not to mention a similar lack relationship between the United States and
–2.6 Qatar (143) 46.3 of change at the sustainable end of the Index) Cuba, this trend will continue to be positive
belies the significant movement of a number of over the coming years.
–2.6 Trinidad & Tobago (126) 58.7
countries over the past year and indeed the
–2.5 Austria (167) 26.0 past decade. Improving by 3.4 points in this year’s Index,
2014 saw Georgia make strides in economic
–2.5 Bahamas (136) 51.6
Where the World is Getting Better growth, trade, and government transparency.
–2.5 Germany (165) 28.1 Signing an association agreement with the

Much of the movement in the 2015 Index has European Union in June along with Moldova
–2.5 Iceland (171) 23.4
been largely in sync with the headlines of the and Ukraine, Georgia’s trade and political

Most Worsened, 2014 to 2015 past year. As Cuba continues to dominate deals were aimed at reducing trade barriers

headlines in the United States — for all the and propelling democratic reforms. The
+9.1 Ukraine (84) 76.3
right reasons — it has managed to be one of agreement provided important stimulus for the
Georgian economy, which has also benefitted
+7.5 Libya (25) 95.3 the three most improved countries of 2015,
and also the most improved country of the from the Georgian government’s investment in
+6.3 Syria (9) 107.9 energy security which began after relations
past decade. Cuba is joined by Portugal and
soured with Russia following the 2008 war.
+3.5 Russia (65) 80.0 Georgia as the most improved countries, all
having improved their scores by 3.4 points in Georgia’s Demographic Pressures improved
+3.3 Mali (30) 93.1 in 2014, bouncing back from flooding which
the space of a year. Notably, Cuba was
+3.0 Liberia (21) 97.3 among the most improved countries in 2014, affected an estimated 25,000 people in 2013.

and Georgia was the most improved country Georgia’s State Legitimacy indicator was a
+2.7 Nigeria (14) 102.4
notable exception to the country’s overall
previously in 2011, suggesting both countries
+2.7 Yemen (7) 108.1 are enjoying a rapid long-term trend of improvements, prompted by political turmoil

improvement. within the governing Georgian Dream coalition

+2.5 India (69) 79.4
in November, as well as the Russia’s
+2.3 Gambia (51) 85.4 Even more informative than the year-on-year signature of a strategic partnership agreement
trends are the trends identifiable over a with the breakaway region of Abkhazia.
+2.3 Iraq (12) 104.5
decade. Not only was Cuba tied for the most The past year saw Portugal rise from the
Points change between 2015 and 2014 scores.
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green
arrows signify improvement.

www.fundforpeace.org 12 The Fund for Peace

ashes of the European debt crisis, making a economic growth, with GDP, GNI per capita, in the 2013 Index, saw its score worsen
clean exit from the 78 billion euro international and foreign direct investment all improving in significantly yet again, as the country
bailout program. While heralded as the five year trend mark. This is by no means continued to fight terrorist and rebel forces in
economically risky by some for exiting without a free pass for the worsening decade trends in the north.
a credit line safety net, strides were Factionalized Elites and State Legitimacy, with
nonetheless made in 2014 with the country many international sanctions led by the United The effects of the Ebola crisis were also

experiencing its first full-year of growth since States still firmly in place. However it must be picked up in the Index, with Liberia, Sierra

2010 and reducing its unemployment rate. The observed that Zimbabwe in 2014 is in a much Leone, and Guinea all experiencing worsening

continuation of austerity measures which led more stable position, slowly moving past the scores. A hopeful story of 2014 was that

to widespread protests in 2012 and 2013 in food, land and hyperinflation crises that rocked Sierra Leone, which had featured in the most

Portugal, echoing those of its regional the country in the early 2000s. fragile ten countries in the first iteration of the

neighbors, has left deep socio-economic Index in 2005, has graduated from the Alert

divides within the country. As the government … and Where it’s Not category to the Warning category. The Ebola

attempts to walk the fragile economic line post crisis negatively impacted Sierra Leone’s

-bailout, it will have its work cut out for it to At the other end of the spectrum however, improving trend, however more structurally

address the underlying social issues which countries that have been beset by new or there remains reason to be hopeful that Sierra

threaten to boil over in the worsened Group renewed conflict have seen their standing in Leone — and Liberia, too — will return to an

Grievance indicator. the Index tumble. Ukraine — which was the improving trend in coming years.

subject of an invasion by neighboring Russia,

Reflective of the spiraling insecurity in the post
Without any major positive leaps towards lost control of Crimea and much of the far east
Arab Spring world, marred by complex local
greater democratic freedom, human rights of the country, and is currently fighting
ethnic and social-economic tensions overlaid
reform or significant surges in economic Russian-backed rebels on its territory — is the
with sectarian Sunni and Shia divides and
growth, the question begs why Zimbabwe most worsened country for 2015, having
regional power plays, Libya, Syria, Yemen and
stands to have improved its score so much in worsened by a significant 9.1, the fifth-largest
Iraq all made the top ten in the Most
2014. The indicators for Group Grievance, year-on-year points worsening in the history of
Worsened for 2015. Though each has its own
State Legitimacy and Uneven Economic the Index. Notably, not only did Ukraine suffer
conflict dynamics, political fragmentation and
Development all remained poor in 2014, and for the conflict on its territory, but the
humanitarian crises, the deepening fragility
President Robert Mugabe firmly retained belligerent power, Russia, also saw its score
across the four states over the past year is
power for his thirty fourth consecutive year worsen considerably. Not far behind Ukraine
reshaping the whole regional landscape. The
after contentious re-election in 2013. One of was Libya, which saw renewed conflict push
headline-grabbing rise of the Islamic State in
the important traits of the Index is its ability to its score further upwards, while Syria
the past twelve months has exacerbated
measure longitudinal trends as well as picking continued to crumble as its civil war raged on
sectarian divides across the region, and
up the more dramatic year-on-year changes. and Da'esh, or the Islamic State, added a new
contributed to insecurity in varying degrees
Zimbabwe has remained relatively stable over brutal dimension to the conflict. Indeed, Syria
within the four countries. Overtaking swaths of
the past decade, with marginal improvements has now become one of the top ten most
territory in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State
in indicators such as Human Flight and Public fragile countries for the first time in the history
has also emboldened jihadist affiliates in both
Services. This has largely been driven by of the Index. Mali, the most worsened country

www.fundforpeace.org 13 The Fund for Peace

Analysis of the Fragile States Index 2015

Broken Records: countries. With the State Legitimacy, Security crises in the Ebola-hit countries — the Index
Largest Year-on-Year Worsening Apparatus, Human Rights, and External is also helpful in bringing to the fore issues
Intervention indicators all worsening as their that are far from the headlines.
+16.2 Libya (2011 - 2012) governance structures crumble, particularly in

+12.5 Japan (2011 - 2012) Syria, Iraq and Libya, it is unlikely that we will Take India, for example, where the world’s
see any rapid transformations as we move into second-most populous nation is among the
+11.9 Lebanon (2006 - 2007) 2015. ten most worsened countries in 2015, the

+11.4 Mali (2012 - 2013) continuing of a trend that has seen India
Nigeria, already a fragile country facing worsen significantly in the past decade.
+9.1 Ukraine (2014 - 2015) internal political pressures and a ferocious
campaign by Boko Haram insurgents in the
+8.6 Syria (2011 - 2012) In May 2014, India elected Narendra Modi as
north, saw its score worsen significantly as pre Prime Minister, with his center-right National
+8.1 Iceland (2008 - 2009) -election tensions mounted and its economy Democratic Alliance winning the biggest
was beset with falling oil prices. Despite these
+8.0 Georgia (2008 - 2009) governing majority since 1984. Modi was
pressures, stakeholders at every level rallied greeted with an enthusiastic optimism by
+8.0 Kenya (2008 - 2009) to ensure that the elections which took place much of the youth vote and wider Hindu
+7.5 Libya (2014 - 2015) in March and April 2015 were relatively majority population, as well as on the
peaceful. For a country that had previously international stage, as the enigmatic new
+6.7 Comoros (2008 - 2009) been a defacto single party state at the federal leader signed trade deals and strengthened
+6.4 Haiti (2010 - 2011) level to peacefully pass the torch to an partnerships with world leaders during 2014.
opposition party under such difficult social, Though the landmark political shift in India’s
+6.3 Syria (2014 - 2015)
economic, and political conditions, is no small history gave the country a boost in the State
+5.3 C.A.R. (2013 - 2014) feat. It has given pause to cynics and raised Legitimacy indicator, the simmering ethnic,
hopes in the possibility of a maturing religious and social tensions within the country
+5.3 South Africa (2007 - 2008)
democracy and representative governance in have contributed to the worsening of India’s
Nigeria. Still, more than ever, challenges overall 2015 Index score. With indicators such
Libya and Yemen, capitalizing on both remain. None of the conflict drivers have gone as Human Flight, Human Rights, Factionalized
countries’ intensifying political disintegration. away. Next year will be critical for ensuring Elites and Group Grievance all worsening,
With Group Grievance already at the highest that Nigeria truly is on a trajectory towards entrenched divides between the Hindu
score of 10 in Syria and Iraq, and Libya sustainable peace and security and that this majority which accounts for 80 per cent of the
worsening by 0.3 as it descended into civil war peaceful transition was not just a blip on the population, and the Muslim 13 per cent and 2
between two fragmented government groups, radar screen. per cent Christian minorities remained
followed by Yemen whose score rose to 9.4 apparent. Modi’s close political ties with
As much as the Index is perhaps telling us
with Houthi rebels and al-Qaeda in the radical Hindu groups has not helped to
things we already know — the increasing
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) expanding promote religious tolerance, with mass forced
instability in Iraq, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Ukraine,
influence, the fissures within society are strong conversions of Muslims and Christians to
Russia, Syria, and Yemen, as well as the
drivers of conflict across these four embattled Hinduism reported, including in Modi’s home

www.fundforpeace.org 14 The Fund for Peace

state of Gujarat. Ethnic violence also spiked in How the World is Doing:
Northern India in December when the National Improving versus Worsening Trends, 2006-2015
Democratic Front of Bodoland staged an
Improved* Unchanged* Worsened*
insurgency campaign to create an
independent state, killing scores of villagers. 140

Gender violence within India also continues to Worsening

120
Improvement
be a pervasive issue, with the rape and
100
murder of 14 and 15 year old sisters from a
low caste in Badaun garnering international 80
media attention and sparking widespread
60
protests in India.
40

Or even less likely to be on the agenda of the 20

world’s media is The Gambia, the tenth most
0
worsened country in 2015, which was subject
to an attempted coup against President Yahya
Jammeh in December 2014. As a country with
agriculture as its main source of employment,
Gambia is still feeling the effects of the
drought of that reduced crop production by 70 1994, prompted a worsening of the Human 0.2 points. This continues a long-standing
per cent in 2011. With the country’s GDP Rights and Rule of Law indicator, as he trend in the Index where generally more
growth estimated to have contracted by 0.7 passed new legislation criminalizing countries improve year-on-year than they do
per cent in 2014, affected by the a sharp homosexuality carrying punishments as harsh worsen. In the past decade, there has been an
decline in tourism and other sectors due to the as life imprisonment. overall improvement worldwide, where roughly
regional Ebola outbreak, Gambia’s indicators the same ratio of countries are better off today
for Poverty and Economic Decline and Human But Still, There is Hope than they were ten years ago.
Flight have worsened in 2015. As one of the
most densely populated countries in Africa, its The news headlines would suggest that there As an international community, we must
growing urbanization has resulted in large is much to be worried about in the world. recognize where instability and fragility exist
rural-urban wealth inequality, prompting a Indeed, there is much conflict and suffering to and take measures to mitigate it accordingly.
worsening in its Uneven Economic be found in numerous countries at the more But equally, the Fragile States Index
Development indicator for the 2015 Index. The fragile end of the Index. But in actuality, there demonstrates to us that we must also
foiled coup attempt staged by Gambian is much to be hopeful about. recognize the great strides forward that many
soldiers also undermined the Security countries are making, and as much as fragility
Apparatus and State Legitimacy indicators. Between 2014 and 2015, 108 countries persists in some corners of the world, on
The repressive President Jammeh who has improved by more than 0.2 points, while only balance, stability and prosperity is significantly
held power since staging his own coup in half as many (52) worsened by greater than on the rise.

www.fundforpeace.org 15 The Fund for Peace

The Methodology Behind the
Fragile States Index

Weak and failing states pose a narrative case studies and anecdotal evidence scores for the Index.
challenge to the international community. In a to identify and grasp broad social trends. A
Millions of documents are analyzed every
highly interconnected world, with a globalized "mixed methods" approach using qualitative
year. By applying highly specialized search
economy, information systems and interlaced and quantitative techniques is needed to
parameters, scores are apportioned for every
security, pressures on one fragile state can establish patterns and trends. Without the
country based on twelve key political, social
have serious repercussions not only for that right data and analysis it is impossible to
and economic indicators (which in turn include
state and its people, but also for its neighbors identify problems that may be festering below
over 100 sub-indicators) that are the result of
and other states halfway across the globe. the radar. Decision makers need access to
years of painstaking expert social science
this kind of information to implement effective
Since the end of the Cold War, a number of research.
policies. Decision makers need access to this
states have erupted into mass violence
kind of information to implement effective Through both integration and
stemming from internal conflict. Some of these
policies. triangulation techniques, the CAST platform
crises are ethnic conflicts. Some are civil
separates the relevant data from the
wars. Others take on the form of The Fragile States Index, produced by the
irrelevant. Guided by twelve primary social,
revolutions. Many result in complex Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting
economic and political indicators (each split
humanitarian emergencies. Though the not only the normal pressures that all states
into an average of 14 sub -indicators), we first
dynamics may differ in each case, all of these experience, but also in identifying when those
use content analysis using specialized search
conflicts stem from social, economic, and pressures are pushing a state towards the
terms that flag relevant items. This analysis is
political pressures that have not been brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues
then converted into a score representing the
managed by professional, legitimate, and in weak and failing states, the Index — and
significance of each of the various pressures
representative state institutions. the social science framework and the data
for a given country.
analysis tools upon which it is built — makes
Fault lines emerge between identity groups,
political risk assessment and early warning of The content analysis is further juxtaposed
defined by language, religion, race, ethnicity,
conflict accessible to policy-makers and the against two other key aspects of the overall
nationality, class, caste, clan or area of origin.
public at large. assessment process: quantitative analysis and
Tensions can deteriorate into conflict through
qualitative inputs based on major events in the
a variety of circumstances, such as The strength of the Fragile States Index is its
countries examined. This “mixed methods”
competition over resources, predatory or ability to distill millions of pieces of information
approach also helps to ensure that
fractured leadership, corruption, or unresolved into a form that is relevant as well as easily
inherent weaknesses, gaps, or biases in one
group grievances. The reasons for state digestible and informative. Daily, the Fund for
source checked by the others. Though the
weakness and failure are complex but not Peace collects thousands of reports and
basic data underpinning of the Index is already
unpredictable. It is critically important that the information from around the world, detailing
freely and widely available electronically, the
international community understand and the existing social, economic and political
strength of the analysis is in the
closely monitor the conditions that contribute pressures faced by each of the 178 countries
methodological rigor and the systematic
to fragility—and be prepared to take the that we analyze.
integration of a wide range of data sources.
necessary actions to deal with the underlying
The Index is based on the Fund for Peace’s
issues or otherwise mitigate the negative Though the basic data underpinning of the
proprietary Conflict Assessment System Tool
effects. Index is already freely and widely available
(CAST) analytical platform. Based on
electronically, the strength of the analysis is in
To have meaningful early warning, and comprehensive social science methodology,
the methodological rigor and the systematic
effective policy responses, assessments must data from three primary sources is triangulated
integration of a wide range of data sources.
go beyond specialized area knowledge, and subjected to critical review to obtain final

www.fundforpeace.org 16 The Fund for Peace

Social Indicators Economic Indicators
Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Uneven Economic Development
Pressures on the population such as disease Pressures associated with population When there are ethnic, religious, or regional
and natural disasters make it difficult for the displacement. This strains public services and disparities, governments tend to be uneven in
government to protect its citizens or demon- has the potential to pose a security threat. their commitment to the social contract.
strate a lack of capacity or will. Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to:
Includes pressures and measures related to:  Displacement  Refugees per capita  GINI Coefficient  Rural v. Urban Dis-
 Natural Disasters  Malnutrition  Refugee Camps  IDPs per capita  Income Share of tribution of Services
 Disease  Water Scarcity  IDP Camps  Capacity to absorb Highest 10%  Improved Service
 Environment  Population Growth  Disease related to  Income Share of Access
 Pollution  Youth Bulge Displacement Lowest 10%  Slum Population
 Food Scarcity  Mortality

Group Grievance Human Flight & Brain Drain Poverty & Economic Decline
When tension and violence exists between When there is little opportunity, people migrate, Poverty and economic decline strain the ability
groups, the state’s ability to provide security is leaving a vacuum of human capital. Those with of the state to provide for its citizens if they
undermined and fear and further violence may resources also often leave before, or just as, cannot provide for themselves and can create
ensue. conflict erupts. friction between “haves” and “have nots”.
Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to:
 Discrimination  Religious Violence  Migration per capita  Emigration of  Economic Deficit  Purchasing Power
 Powerlessness  Human Capital Educated Citizens  Government Debt  GDP per capita
 Ethnic Violence  Unemployment  GDP Growth
 Communal Violence  Youth Employment  Inflation
 Sectarian Violence

Political and Military Indicators

State Legitimacy Public Services Human Rights & Rule of Law
Corruption and lack of representativeness in The provision of health, education, and When human rights are violated or unevenly
the government directly undermine social sanitation services, among others, are key roles protected, the state is failing in its ultimate
contract. of the state. responsibility.
Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to:
 Corruption  Level of Democracy  Policing  Quality Healthcare  Press Freedom  Incarceration
 Government  Illicit Economy  Criminality  Telephony  Civil Liberties  Religious
Effectiveness  Drug Trade  Education Provision  Internet Access  Political Freedoms Persecution
 Political  Protests and  Literacy  Energy Reliability  Human Trafficking  Torture
Participation Demonstrations  Water & Sanitation  Roads  Political Prisoners  Executions
 Electoral Process  Power Struggles  Infrastructure

Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention

The security apparatus should have a monopoly When local and national leaders engage in When the state fails to meet its international or
on use of legitimate force. The social contract is deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain, domestic obligations, external actors may
weakened where affected by competing groups. this undermines the social contract. intervene to provide services or to manipulate
Includes pressures and measures related to: Includes pressures and measures related to: internal affairs.
 Internal Conflict  Military Coups  Power Struggles  Political Includes pressures and measures related to:
 Small Arms  Rebel Activity  Defectors Competition  Foreign Assistance  Foreign Military
Proliferation  Militancy  Flawed Elections  Presence of Intervention
 Riots and Protests  Bombings Peacekeepers  Sanctions
 Fatalities from  Political Prisoners  Presence of UN  Credit Rating
Conflict Missions

www.fundforpeace.org 17 The Fund for Peace

Widespread Violence and Insecurity
Strikes the Central African Republic
Very High Alert Nate Haken and Hannah Blyth
111.9 Central African Rep. (3) +3.4 The Central African Republic (CAR) is a often become a causality to the instability of its
vast, beautiful land about the size of Texas, regional neighbors, which include Sudan,
114.0 Somalia (2) +1.4
but with a fraction of its population. It is home South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of
114.5 South Sudan (1) +1.6 to sprawling herds of forest elephants roaming Congo, Republic of Congo, Chad and
the Dzanga-Ndoki national park along the Cameroon.
110.8 Sudan (4) +0.7
Sangha River. Logging towns have sprung up
where Muslim merchants sell bread and flip- One of the prevailing drivers of insecurity is
flops. On the outskirts of town, Bayaka the presence of rebels from these neighboring
pygmies harvest honey, and play stringed countries. During 2013 and 2014, CAR was
instruments with their thumbs. scene to the worst violence in the country’s
history as fighting broke out between mostly
However, the people of CAR have also Muslim Séléka rebels and government forces.
experienced some of the most abject cycles of Violence worsened in 2014 as anti-Séléka
violence, poverty and exploitation since militias formed and started committing
gaining independence from France in 1960. atrocities against Muslim communities
The resource-rich and land-locked nation has throughout much of the country, leading to

Arab Spring Turns to Winter for Much of Middle East, North Africa
political and social unrest fomented by the does not reflect the subsequent resignation of
Felipe Umaña Houthi movement in August, as well as the the government in January 2015, and the
Only a few years ago, much of the rebel group’s subsequent attempts to seize power grab by the Houthis that has led Yemen
Fragile States Index analysis was following the political power in Sana’a. Though much has to deteriorate even further, continuing a long-
aftermath of the Arab Spring. At the time, occurred in Yemen during 2015 to suggest running trend that has seen Yemen rank as
there was significant hope for the future, as that its score will worsen even more in the one of the world’s ten most fragile states for
the despotic regime of Muammar Gaddafi fell 2016 Index, it was evident that the country’s four years running.
in Libya, similarly undemocratic regimes fortunes were already getting worse over the
collapsed in Egypt and Tunisia, and other past year. For example, moves by the former Syria saw a decline from 164th on the 2014

countries hastily rushed through liberal, government, such as the decision to remove Index to 170th in 2015, with an 8-point

democratic reforms in the hopes of staving off fuel subsidies from impoverished provinces, increase in its total score as it saw worsening

their own demise. But fast forward only a few prompted many to demonstrate and take up conditions in virtually all of its indicators. The

years, and (despite generally positive signs in arms, leading to increases in Yemen’s Uneven complex conflict in the country has continued

Tunisia) most of that hope has evaporated. Development indicator score. More broadly, to pit President Bashar al-Assad’s regime

Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen — among the this unrest became the catalyst for the against a weakened armed opposition and

2015 Index’s most high risk nations — have burgeoning conflict for the remainder of the various jihadist militants, including al-Qaeda’s

witnessed some of the most significant year. Though a UN-brokered deal offered Jabhat al-Nusra and its rival, the Islamic State.

declines over the past year. some hope for political security, conditions The latter has wreaked havoc throughout

steadily worsened in late 2014 and violence much of the country’s central, eastern, and

For this year’s Index, Yemen saw over a 3- erupted, as evidenced by a stark rise in northern provinces and has exacerbated

point increase primarily as a result of the several indicators. Of course, the 2015 Index existing issues with refugee and migrant

www.fundforpeace.org 18 The Fund for Peace

Very High Alert Category

accusations of ethnic cleansing and incitement displaced, thousands killed, over 12,000 UN the country – whether this is due to poverty,
of genocide. peacekeeping troops have been deployed, internal insecurity or cross border constraints,
and GDP growth has plummeted. highlights the severity of the challenges faced
In the 2015 Index, CAR is now the third most by the country.
fragile state, after South Sudan and Somalia, Despite the overall worsening by 1.9 points in
with a score of 111.9, up from number ninth in the 2015 Index, CAR’s Human Flight indicator CAR has long been fragile, fraught with coups,
2013 (105.3), when president François Bozizé improved, though not necessarily for the right rebellions and spill over from regional
was deposed and replaced briefly by Michel reasons. The UNHCR estimates that there conflicts. However the wave of widespread
Djotodia until he resigned. The current interim were more than 900,000 People of Concern militant violence which has swept the country
heads of state, Catherine Samba-Panza who residing within CAR by July 2014, including since 2013 represents a deepening of the
was appointed President in January 2014, 535,000 Internally Displaced Persons. Yet in a insecurity on a new worrying scale. CAR has a
along with CAR’s first Muslim Prime Minister population of 4.6 million people, UNHCR long road ahead to beat the cycle of state
Mahamat Kamout in August 2014, have not estimates there were less than 400,000 fragility, however given the level of
been able to bring about a lasting ceasefire recognized refugees and asylum seekers international attention it has received in the
amidst the sectarian violence. In the collectively originating from CAR in the same last year, there is still hope that 2015 will be
meantime, hundreds of thousands have been period. The inability of the population to flee better.

populations, ethnic and sectarian grievances, in August to the eastern port city of Tobruk. Arab Springback:
human rights abuses, and overall violence and Various indicators further declined as militant Libya, Syria, and Yemen: 2006-2015
instability — all indicators with a maximum groups — including those allied with the
possible score of 10 points. Islamic State — dislodged the government’s 120.0
Worsening
authority and assumed the role of providing
The situation in Iraq mirrors that of Improvement
critical services to the war-weary population. 110.0
neighboring Syria, as many of Syria’s same
While Demographic Pressures and Uneven
ailments afflict Iraq’s economic, political, and 100.0
Economic Development improved marginally,
social conditions. While rising oil exports and a
oil production suffered due to ongoing fighting.
key oil revenue compromise with the northern 90.0
Importantly, the country’s Refugee and Human
Kurdish population prompted minor
Flight scores saw large increases, further
improvements from the country’s 2014 80.0
contributing to the still-ongoing Mediterranean
Uneven Development and Poverty indicator
migrant crisis. Though Libya gained an Alert
scores, Iraq has lost nearly one-third of its 70.0
rating in the 2015 Index, there is every reason
territory to the Islamic State. Legitimacy
to expect that in the coming years, without
similarly wilted under persisting sectarian
stemming the current tide, Libya could join 60.0
enmity and international humanitarian and
Iraq, Syria, and Yemen with a High Alert
military intervention.
rating. Unfortunately, though there was great

Finally, post-Gaddhafi Libya continued to hope for an Arab Spring, the region could well

deteriorate in 2014, as the internationally be in for a long Winter.

recognized government was forced to depart

www.fundforpeace.org 19 The Fund for Peace

Beating the Odds:
Nigeria Defies Predictions of Doom
High Alert Nate Haken
107.9 Afghanistan (8) +1.4 The world is not deterministic. People Independent National Electoral Commission
have a say. If ever there was any doubt, (INEC) withstood all manner of political
108.4 Chad (6) –0.3
Nigeria belied that notion with elections in pressure and logistical challenges to ensure
100.0 Cote d’Ivoire (15) –1.7 March and April of this year in which the sky that the election would be as credible as
did not fall as just about everybody feared it possible. The two leading candidates,
109.7 Congo (Dem. Rep.) (5) –0.5
might. Yes, there were reports of rigging and incumbent Goodluck Jonathan and
104.9 Guinea (10) +2.2 violence at various levels. But cooler heads Muhammadu Buhari signed a pact, eschewing
prevailed and Nigeria stepped away from the violence and promising to respect the
104.5 Haiti (11) +0.2
brink. outcome. Then when the results were still
104.5 Iraq (11) +2.3 coming in and it became clear that that
The underlying drivers have not gone away, challenger Buhari was going to win, in an
102.4 Nigeria (14) +2.7
but the trigger that elections so often represent unprecedented move President Jonathan
102.9 Pakistan (13) –0.1 was recognized early and dealt with in a called Buhari and congratulated him, setting
statesmanlike way by individuals in leadership the tone for a peaceful transition.
107.9 Syria (8) +6.3
who had the public interest of the Nigerian
108.1 Yemen (7) +1.6 people at heart. Civil society stepped up. Early Conflict drivers in Nigeria are complex and
Warning systems were established. Civic overlapping. Issues of poverty, inequality, a
100.0 Zimbabwe (15) –2.8
education was prioritized. Forums were held high dependence on oil exports for
Countries listed in alphabetical order.
Points change versus 2014 score. across the country sensitizing youth as to the government revenue, corruption and
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green
arrows signify improvement.
dangers of election violence. Thousands of patronage networks, as well as challenges
traditional rulers, public officials, youth and around public health, infrastructure, education,
women’s leaders, and human rights activists and access to finance abound. Zero-sum fault
joined the Partners for Peace Network in the lines spider-webbing across society spark
Niger Delta to work for non-violent elections. sectarian, inter-communal, intra-communal,
Professor Attahiru Jega, the chairman of the political, and criminal violence. Communal

Mapping Conflict Data in the Niger Delta

Since August 2013, over 2,700 traditional land disputes, political tensions, and youth
Hannah Blyth
rulers, civil society actors, government restiveness across the region.
There are many different ways to officials, community leaders, and students
collect, measure, and use data on peace and have come together to empower the FFP has partnered with the Foundation for
conflict to affect change at the local, national communities most affected by violence and Partnerships in the Niger Delta (PIND) to
and international levels. While the Fragile give voice to those most committed to peace catalyze, facilitate, and support this network
States Index methodology focuses on and development in Nigeria. They have through several key initiatives, including the
mapping fragility at a national level, the created nine state-level chapters in the Niger P4P Peacebuilding Map. Consolidating the
Partners for Peace (P4P) project in Nigeria Delta, and dozens of sub-chapters at the local twelve indictors used in the Index into eight
represents an important example of how the government area level. Hundreds have been conflict indicators (and 57 sub-indicators), the
same underlying framework of indicators can trained in conflict assessment and are now interactive map compiles the shared
be used at a local level. actively implementing peace-building projects knowledge of the wider peace-building
and activities to address communal conflict, community to derive patterns of conflict risk.

www.fundforpeace.org 20 The Fund for Peace

High Alert Category

violence, often between pastoralists and gubernatorial elections were more violent than Nigeria:
farmers, occurs in the Middle Belt. In the oil the presidential elections in the Niger Delta, Total Score, 2006-2015
rich Niger Delta region, violence often relates especially in Rivers State. But even there, it
to competition over “resource control.” In the could have been much worse. 10
Northeast, the so-called “Boko Haram”
insurgency has killed thousands since it burst It still might. The conflict drivers have not gone 9
onto the scene in the summer of 2009. away. After the election, a strike by fuel
importers brought the economy to a temporary 8
Last year was especially difficult for Nigeria. standstill; long lines of cars and trucks formed
Insurgency in the Northeast was more intense at gas stations, sitting immobile for hours at a 7
than ever before, even breaking into the time. Black market prices spiked. And now it
international mainstream media headlines with appears that the ex-militants in the Niger Delta 6
the abduction of hundreds of school girls in are starting to rattle their sabers once again,
5 Worsening
Chibok. Political polarization was mounting as threatening violence in a bid to influence the
Improvement
the opposition All Progressives Party (APC) new administration. Meanwhile in the North,
was emerging as a real threat to the status Boko Haram continues to detonate bombs. In 4

quo. Oil prices were down, putting pressure on the Middle Belt, land and pastoral conflicts
public service and patronage networks alike. continue.
Conventional wisdom had it that if Jonathan
won, it would be hell in the North and if Buhari But if we’ve learned anything from the Fragile risk, and engagement by all levels of society to
won, it would be hell in the South. But when States Index and the events of the last few anticipate and dampen the effects of trigger
push came to shove, Jonathan took the higher months, it is clear that even in the most events, the worst can be avoided. And
ground. Armed groups in the Niger Delta, as it polarized of environments, under the highest perhaps in the long run, peace can be
turns out, are more transactional than levels of social, economic, political and sustainable.
ideological. As we suspected, the security pressure, if there is clarity about the

The map integrates data on conflict from a Through conflict mapping, the resource has The Heat is On:
wide range of sources (over 14,000 incidents) also been used as the foundation for a book Mapping Violence in the Niger Delta
and lists the locations of peace-building actors tracing possible terrorism conflicts in Nigeria
(over 420 peace initiatives to date) who are from the birth of Boko Haram in the North
working to address those risk factors at a local between 2009 and 2013 by FFP’s Nate Haken
level. The map remains a continually and Patricia Taft (Violence in Nigeria: Patterns
expanding resource which can be used at a and Trends; Springer 2015).
local-level for conflict assessments to identify
hotspots and analyze the root causes of The image left is an example of a P4P Heat map,
plotting incidents in the Niger Delta during March
conflict, as well as derive state and national
2015, using data from P4P, ACLED, Council on
trends to inform preventative action. Foreign Relations, Fund for Peace, NEEWS2015/
TMG, Nigeria Watch and NSRP.

www.fundforpeace.org 21 The Fund for Peace

Crumbling Roads and a Health Crisis:
West Africa Confronts Ebola
Alert Patricia Taft
91.8 Bangladesh (32) –1.0 In December 2013 in a tiny village in In the case of Ebola in West Africa, prior
Guinea, a young child fell ill and died of a development assistance for infrastructure
98.1 Burundi (18) +1.0 disease that would come to define much of the turned out to be a double-edged sword. On

94.3 Cameroon (28) +1.2 news in 2014. The Ebola virus, previously only the one hand, the building of roads to connect
known in Central and East Africa, laid ravage far flung villages to the capitals and major
90.8 Congo (Republic) (33) +1.2 to large swaths of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra cities in each country likely contributed to the
Leone, three countries that had just begun to spread of the disease, as infected individuals
90.0 Egypt (38) –1.0
recover after years of civil war. Indeed, Liberia often walked for hours on roads to seek
96.9 Eritrea (24) +1.4 and Sierra Leone were featured in last year’s assistance outside of their formerly isolated
Fragile States Index as two success stories, villages. On the other hand, the condition of
97.5 Ethiopia (20) –0.4
climbing back, slowly but steadily, from the these roads, which were often built hastily and
99.9 Guinea Bissau (17) –0.7 abyss. Last year however laid bare where then fell into disrepair when national
years of both national and international governments had neither the money nor the
97.4 Kenya (21) –1.6 attention (or lack of attention, as in the case of interest in keeping them up, became

97.3 Liberia (22) +3.0 Guinea) failed to address some of a country’s impassable during the rainy season when they
most basic needs: a functioning public health essentially melted back into the jungle. For
95.3 Libya (25) +6.5 system and passable roads. health care and humanitarian aid workers, this
made the task of reaching the sick and dying
93.1 Mali (30) +3.3

94.9 Mauritania (26) +1.9

A Tough Neighborhood: Kenya Weathers Regional Instability
94.7 Myanmar (Burma) (27) –0.4
Kenya following the 2007 elections has also
90.5 Nepal (36) –0.5 Patricia Taft and Kendall Lawrence abated, although whether historical issues of

97.8 Niger (19) –0.1 Long considered an anchor of relative Group Grievance are being effectively
stability in East Africa, Kenya is considered to addressed at all levels of society over the
93.8 North Korea (29) –0.2 be one of the strongest emerging markets in longer term remains to be seen.

90.2 Rwanda (37) –0.3 Africa. Despite significant pressures, their

economy continues impressive growth, with Additionally, Kenya is an example of a country
91.9 Sierra Leone (31) +2.0 the World Bank projecting continued gains that is plagued by severe outside pressures
90.6 Sri Lanka (34) –2.0 over the next few years. Kenya has also made stemming from the instability of its neighbors.
significant gains in the technology sector, The most consistent, highly publicized threats
90.6 Timor-Leste (34) –0.4
leading the region – and in some cases, the emanate from one of the Index’s most
97.0 Uganda (23) +1.0 continent – in the development and consistently fragile states, Somalia. Kenya has
deployment of mobile banking and been the recipient of unrelenting attacks from
Countries listed in alphabetical order.
Points change versus 2014 score. telecommunications platforms. the Somalia-based al-Shabaab, a designated
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green
arrows signify improvement. terrorist group with ties to al-Qaeda, for
Kenya also benefits from a highly educated several years now, including throughout 2014.
and productive young population, although These attacks continue to effect Kenya across
issues of youth unemployment and multiple indicators, from the status of the
disenfranchisement remain in some parts of Security Apparatus to Human Rights and the
the country. The cycle of violence that plagued Rule of Law. Kenya is also host to one of the

www.fundforpeace.org 22 The Fund for Peace

Alert Category

nearly impossible at times. In an odd twist of a sense of national identity, very likely halted some roads were just as impassable as those
fate, however, the very neglect of the national the spread of Ebola to these population-dense in Guinea, a place that was never the recipient
road system by the government may well have counties. And, in turn, may have stopped its of such international largesse.
ended up saving thousands of lives in Liberia. transmission across the border into Cote
To be sure, a quick look at the Demographic
In multiple reports, including many issued by d’Ivoire, although this is largely speculative.
Pressures Indicator for each country in the
the FFP from 2010-2014, the government was
2015 Index, which is where non-existent or
criticized for their extremely slow pace in In either case, though, one of the lessons of
crumbling infrastructure is often revealed,
connecting counties in the east and southeast the 2014 Ebola crisis was that basic
underscores how ill-prepared each nation was
of Liberia with the capital. These counties, infrastructure projects, like building durable
to deal with the Ebola crisis. This should serve
which were often hotspots of the opposition, roads, are crucial in post-conflict societies.
as food for thought as the international
were essentially completely cut off from the While not necessarily as “sexy” as other post-
community analyzes the lessons of this
capital during the rainy season. In several conflict efforts, a lack of a viable state
outbreak and what can and should be learned
interviews conducted by FFP, individuals infrastructure can be disastrous in both a
in its aftermath. Although the three countries
stated that they felt more like a citizen of political sense as well as a humanitarian one.
have thankfully been declared Ebola free and
neighboring Cote d’Ivoire than Liberia, as Even in cases where there was a dedicated
are again on the path to recovery, the Ebola
much of their news, food and basic supplies effort in the aftermath of war towards
outbreak of 2014 showed the world just how
came across that border rather than from the infrastructure repair outside of the capital, like
vulnerable post-conflict nations remain, even
capital. This very isolation, albeit disastrous for in Sierra Leone, years of wear and tear later,
years into their healing.

largest refugee populations in the world, explosion of violence in 2008, but also years Kenya:
totaling over 500,000 in 2014 alone. The of conflict and unrest, have also been ongoing. Life in a Tough Neighborhood
refugee crisis, which stems from instability not While these reforms are no doubt both
only in Somalia but also South Sudan, D.R. progressive and needed, the process of
Congo, and Ethiopia, puts immense pressure implementation and incorporation at the local Eritrea
Sudan
on Kenya’s Public Services and also affects its level remains slow and uneven. Like most
Demographic Pressures scores. other countries on the Index, Kenya is not Djibouti

monolithic and pressures vary widely from Ethiopia

To be sure, over the past ten years and region to region. Given this reality, for South
Sudan
particularly following the post-election violence legislative and policy changes to have true
of 2008, Kenya has developed legislation and impact, a stronger focus on implementation at lia
ma
So
da

policies that are intended to address both the grassroots level is required.
an

Kenya
Ug

Alert 120
domestic and external pressures. Kenya’s new
RW 110
D.R. Congo

constitution, promulgated in 2010, calls for the Finally, Kenya has long had a vibrant civil BI
100
devolution of power away from the central society that has been fundamental in the post- Tanzania Warning
Tanzania 90
government in Nairobi to 47 counties colonial evolution of the country. Serious
throughout the country. The adoption and concerns over the freedom of Kenyan civil impressive economic gains are to be matched
implementation of a series of international society and the national press have been with similar progress across its social and
recommendations meant to address the deep raised over the past several years and political indicators.
societal grievances that not only led to the deserve continued attention if the country’s

www.fundforpeace.org 23 The Fund for Peace

Total Scores Are Not All That They Seem:
The Cases of Iran, Lebanon, and Russia
High Warning Hannah Blyth
88.1 Angola (40) +0.7 In viewing the annual Fragile States All Over the Place:
Index scores for a particular country, it is Russia, Select Indicators, 2006-2015
89.2 Burkina Faso (39) +0.2
important to look at the underlying indicators
10.0
87.9 Cambodia (43) –0.6 to properly understand a country’s challenges
and performance. Even where a country may
82.5 Colombia (61) +0.6 9.0
have an overall trend in one direction, its
83.3 Comoros (59) –1.8 individual indicators may actually be heading
8.0
in very different directions.
88.1 Djibouti (40) +1.0

84.8 Equatorial Guinea (54) –0.5 Russia, for example, is the fourth most- 7.0

worsened country year-on-year in 2015, and

85.4 Gambia (51) +2.3
yet over the past decade it ranks among the 6.0

80.4 Guatemala (64) +0.1 most improved. How is this possible? Well, it’s
complicated. Russia faces well-publicized 5.0
87.2 Iran (44) 0.0 Worsening
challenges that have suddenly taken a turn for Improvement
82.2 Kyrgyz Republic (62) –1.7 the worst. Its adventures and increasingly 4.0

hostile overtures in its region are placing

84.5 Laos (55) +0.2
pressure on the country, as are the related
88.1 Lebanon (40) +1.2 economic sanctions from the West.

83.6 Madagascar (56) +0.5 Meanwhile, falling oil prices have further Winter Olympic just a few months earlier, the
harmed an economy that banks on commodity 62-year old President and his Defense
86.9 Malawi (45) –2.2 prices being at a higher level. The overall Minister won a choreographed match

86.9 Mozambique (45) +1.0 decade trend for Russia is one of alongside retired Soviet hockey legends - a
improvement, yet its individual indicators tell a not so subtle ode to their incursion and
83.4 Papua New Guinea (57) –2.3
different story — as much as a number of annexation of Crimea that same month. At
86.3 Philippines (48) +1.0 indicators are significantly improving (such as arm’s length, it would seem Putin enjoys
Demographic Pressures and Human Flight), overwhelming Russian support for his ethno-
80.0 Russia (65) +3.5
others are headed in the opposite direction nationalist foreign policy as well as domestic
83.0 Senegal (60) +0.2 (such as Group Grievance, State Legitimacy, political mantle. However such overt displays
Human Rights, and External Intervention). of physical power belies the deepening of
85.9 Solomon Islands (50) –0.5
repression against free media, LGBT rights,
86.3 Swaziland (48) +0.5 As the machismo figurehead of Russian power and even the ability of independent NGOs to
pulls media stunts on state media, President operate within the country. One of the last
83.4 Tajikistan (57) –1.2
Putin’s increasingly authoritarian leadership of remaining free television stations in Russia,
80.8 Tanzania (63) 0.0 the world’s largest landmass nation has had TV Rain, was shut down in January 2014 after
implications both within and beyond its broadcasting a poll asking viewers to vote on
86.8 Togo (47) –1.0
expansive borders. Donning his ice hockey whether Leningrad should have surrendered
85.4 Uzbekistan (51) –0.9 gear to play in front of thousands in Russian during World War Two. With the indicators for
fans in the stadium that had hosted the Sochi Group Grievance worsening to 9.3 and Human
85.2 Zambia (53) +1.0
Points change versus 2014 score.

www.fundforpeace.org 24 The Fund for Peace

High Warning Category

Rights and Rule of Law to 8.9 for the 2015 Grievance indicator has worsened by 1.6 Iran:
Index, combined with an economy in serious points, reflective of the long term factitious Indicator-by-Indicator, 2015
decline, the Russian leadership should have nature of the divided conservative and
10.0
more cause to pay attention to the murmuring reformist Iranian political landscape, causing
instability within his own borders. deep rifts within Iranian society over issues of 9.0

religion, gender and the country’s future 8.0

Similarly, a country’s total score and even year direction. While optimism in the short term 7.0
-on-year trend can sometimes be somewhat across at least some indicators for Iran may
6.0
misleading. Though Iran has remained continue, it still has a long path ahead to enact
5.0
completely unchanged in 2015, it has lasting political and economic reform to
nevertheless worsened over the past decade. achieve domestic stability. 4.0

Its individual indicator scores are also quite 3.0

variable, with a significant difference between, Just as we have analyzed with the case of
2.0
for example, decent Public Services versus Kenya, a country’s neighbors can have a
1.0
high pressure on Factionalized Elites and poor significant impact on a country. No clearer is
0.0
Human Rights scores. The country has been this the case than in Lebanon. The impact of
able to remain steady overall in 2015, despite the Syrian civil war has continued to worsen
economic challenges and increasing insecurity refugee pressures on the already fragile
in the region. Since the reformist-backed Lebanese state, which according to the
President Rouhani took power in June 2013, UNHCR became the country with the highest trend which has seen the Security Apparatus
the country has seen progress in 2014 in per-capita concentration of refugees in the indicator worsen by 1.3 points. Compounding
areas such as a re-engagement with the West world in 2014. The refugee crisis, which rose the external pressures is the ongoing fragile
over nuclear talks which led to some sanctions to more than 1.1 million refugees residing political power sharing system, with the
relief, and short term improvements in Group within Lebanon by July 2014, has worsened Lebanese Parliament failing to reach
Grie va nce an d Un even Econom ic socio-economic effects on the domestic consensus on a successor for President
Development indicators. Iran’s prominent population, and weakened both the Security Suleiman who ended his term in May 2014,
military support in 2014 for neighboring Iraq to Apparatus and the country’s Rule of Law. and continues to be marred by deep sectarian
fight Da'esh, commonly known as Islamic Porous areas of the Lebanese and Syrian divisions. Yet in the face of such a patchwork
State, is likely to have had a rallying effect border continue to enable not only the mass of insecurity, political and economic fragility,
domestically, along with widespread support influx of Syrian refugees, but also facilitate and simmering sectarian divides which feed
among the youth-dominated population for a movement of weapons and human trafficking into the wider Syria and Iraq conflict, the
nuclear deal that would see sanctions lifted. into the neighboring Syria. Battles between the Lebanese state remains intact. This resiliency,
However with Iran holding almost 10 per cent Lebanese army and insurgents from Syria who while it will inevitably continue to be tested in
of world crude oil reserves, and as the second overran the border town of Arsal in August 2015 and beyond, must continue to be built
largest oil consuming country in the Middle 2014 has also undermined the state’s border upon if it is to avoid the risks of a return to its
East, the country’s economic indicator was security, along with border clashes in October civil war past.
weakened in 2014 by the dramatic fall in world between Hezbollah and Syrian fighting force
oil prices. Over the past decade, Iran’s Group Jabhat al-Nusra, adding to the decade Index

www.fundforpeace.org 25 The Fund for Peace

A Long Way from the Orange Revolution:
Ukraine’s Fall from Grace
Warning Hannah Blyth
79.6 Algeria (67) +0.8 75.0 Indonesia (88) –1.8 With the memories of optimism that
came with the 2004 Orange Revolution fading,
77.3 Azerbaijan (80) –0.5 79.9 Lesotho (66) +1.3
2014 saw Ukraine once again become a
75.6 Belarus (87) –0.6 74.2 Maldives (91) –1.2 regular fixture in the media headlines, but this
time for far less hopeful reasons. The removal
78.8 Benin (73) +0.6 71.8 Mexico (100) +0.7
of a president, incursions by Russian-backed
78.7 Bhutan (74) –2.2 73.6 Micronesia (94) –1.0 rebel forces and conflict throughout much of
the country’s east, the shooting down of a
78.0 Bolivia (77) –0.9 73.0 Moldova (96) –2.1
Malaysian commercial jet over its territory, and
77.4 Bosnia & Herzegovina (79) +1.5 74.6 Morocco (89) +0.2 the annexation of Crimea, it has been an
annus horribilis for Ukraine in 2014. This sharp
73.5 Cape Verde (95) –0.6 70.8 Namibia (106) –0.7
decent in fragility has been clearly reflected in
76.4 China (83) –2.6 79.0 Nicaragua (72) +0.6 the country’s score in the 2015 Index, but also
prompts a reflection about the state’s
71.2 Dominican Republic (105) –2.2 71.3 Paraguay (103) –0.3
underlying structural issues which enabled
75.9 Ecuador (85) –1.4 71.9 Peru (98) –1.0 such a rapid fall from grace.

71.4 El Salvador (102) –0.6 73.7 Sao Tome & Principe (93) –1.9
In late 2013, widespread protests broke out
76.8 Fiji (82) –2.2 71.6 Saudi Arabia (101) –1.5 against then-President Yanukovych, who

71.3 Gabon (103) –0.9 73.8 Serbia (92) +1.8 spurned an association agreement with the
European Union in favor of US$15 billion in
79.3 Georgia (70) –3.4 79.1 Thailand (71) +2.1 assistance and gas supply reduction from his

71.9 Ghana (98) +1.2 75.8 Tunisia (86) –1.7 close Russian ally President Putin. With
violence escalating between protesters and
70.5 Guyana (107) –0.5 74.5 Turkey (90) +0.4
government forces in early 2014, the world
78.2 Honduras (76) +0.3 77.5 Turkmenistan (78) –0.7 watched closely as scenes of chaos and
destruction in Independence Square erupted
79.4 Israel (& West Bank) (68) –0.1 76.3 Ukraine (84) +8.5
in February, with uniformed snipers firing on
76.9 Jordan (81) +0.2 78.6 Venezuela (75) +1.9 protestors as they seized government
buildings. With President Yanukovych fleeing
79.4 India (68) +2.5 72.4 Vietnam (97) –0.3
after being deposed by Parliament and an
Countries listed in alphabetical order.
interim President installed later that month, it
Points change versus 2014 score.
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green marked only the beginning of a much wider
arrows signify improvement.
conflict for Ukraine ridden by ethnic tensions
and regional power struggles.

Inflamed by a Parliamentary vote to ban

Russian as the second official language,

www.fundforpeace.org 26 The Fund for Peace

Warning Category

though overturned, ethnic tensions between Since the 1990s, leadership of Ukraine has A Bear Market — Ukraine and Russia:
Ukrainian and Russian speaking populations historically been aligned with Russia. With the Total Score 2006-2015
sparked a swift dissent into armed conflict. exception of the brief period after the Orange
Pro-Russian militants seized the eastern Revolution in 2004, the government has 90.0
Worsening
region of Crimea, with Russia declaring its derived much of its domestic support from the
Improvement
annexation in March, and continuing their minority Russian-speaking population. In spite 85.0

expansion into Donetsk and Luhansk in May. of this, language discrimination against the
Russia-speaking minority has remained 80.0
Amid violent clashes between Ukrainian widespread, negatively impacting economic
military forces and separatists with rising integration within the country. As a middle- 75.0
casualties, Petro Poroshenko was elected as income country with high debt and slow
the new Ukrainian President with strong growth, Ukraine has been beset with socio- 70.0
support from the United States and European economic issues and Human Flight. It has
Union. Further turmoil within the east relied heavily on trade with Russia, and was 65.0
continued in July, when Malaysian Airlines severely impacted by the 2008 financial crisis,
flight MH17 was shot down when flying over in part because of a lack of diversification. 60.0
separatist-controlled Ukrainian territory, killing Unemployment spiked in 2009 and has
all 298 passengers. Garnering international reached new highs since conflict broke out last
outrage, and prompting fresh sanctions by the year. This has been particularly salient in
EU and U.S. on Russia, within a few short eastern areas where industry has been Up, Up, and Away — Ukraine:
Select Indicators, 2006-2015
months the conflict had become an affected by the insecurity, perpetuating the
international focal point for declining Russian deep animosity driven by socio-economic and
10.0
and Western relations. ethnic rifts.
Worsening
9.0 Improvement
With Ukraine’s Index score worsening year-on As these Ukrainian-Russian divisions only
8.0
-year by 9.1 points, the embattled state saw continue to be exacerbated by military conflict
an eruption of the deep simmering socio- and a pro-Western President Poroshenko, and 7.0
economic and ethnic divides combined with in turn becoming a proxy for fractious regional
6.0
weak governance, Factionalized Elites and power politics, Ukraine has a little hope of
external influences which had besieged the addressing its deepening insecurity. Through 5.0
country for years. The military conflict still focusing on strengthening governance,
4.0
underway in 2015 between Russian economic stability and social inclusion in the
separatists and Ukrainian forces speaks to the face of conflict and external intervention, 3.0
long-held tensions between the 30 per cent Ukraine may just be able to resurface its
minority Russian-speaking population and the Orange Revolution optimism to avoid falling 2.0

67 per cent majority Ukrainian speaking into the dangerous spiral of state fragility.
population.

www.fundforpeace.org 27 The Fund for Peace

A Reform Agenda:
Cuba Comes in from the Cold
Low Warning Patricia Taft and Kendall Lawrence
61.9 Albania (125) –1.7 It the end of 2014, Cuba suddenly Cuba:
became news again when U.S. President Select Indicators, 2006-2015
69.7 Armenia (108) –1.6 8.5
Obama announced a plan to normalize
64.3 Bahrain (119) –0.4 relations with the country after nearly fifty 8.0
years of political and economic isolation. But
65.3 Belize (116) –1.7 7.5
even before the announcement, Cuba was
62.8 Botswana (122) –1.7 already on track to be one of the most 7.0
improved countries in the 2014 Fragile States
62.6 Brazil (123) +1.2 6.5
Index.
63.0 Brunei Darussalam (121) –0.6 6.0

In areas like the provision of Public Services,

67.4 Cuba (112) –3.4 5.5
Cuba’s score has worsened slightly over ten
66.2 Cyprus (114) –1.7 years although all other indicators have 5.0
Worsening
improved. In the areas of Human Rights and
63.4 Grenada (120) –1.8 4.5
Improvement
State Legitimacy, there was a worsening over
64.6 Jamaica (117) –0.3 4.0
the past year as reports alleged extrajudicial
abuse by public security forces and the
68.3 Kazakhstan (110) –0.2
continued repression of political opposition.
64.5 Macedonia (118) –1.9 Despite these negative marks, the trend over reaches out to other foreign markets.

65.9 Malaysia (115) –0.3 the past decade continues to be positive.

For Cuba, led by Fidel Castro’s younger
68.2 Samoa (111) –1.1 One of the driving forces behind Cuba’s brother President Raul Castro, the need to

62.1 Seychelles (124) –1.6 improvement has been the success of explore new diplomatic relations had also
economic reforms over the past few years that become an economic necessity. Since the
67.0 South Africa (113) +0.4
have opened Cuba up to new foreign U.S. embargo was enforced in 1961 and
68.4 Suriname (109) –2.2 investment opportunities. In March 2014, tightened further by Congress in 1996, Cuba’s
Cuba began mending fences with the restricted economy has relied on subsidies
Countries listed in alphabetical order.
Points change versus 2014 score. European Union and accepted foreign from the Soviet Union and more recently
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green
arrows signify improvement. investment from Brazil to modernize a deep Venezuela. However Venezuela’s own
water port, which has the potential to become fortunes took a turn in 2014, with its 2015
the largest in the Caribbean. And although Index score worsening by 1.9 points, propelled
according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and by the slump in world oil prices. With oil
Economic Council, 2014 had the lowest accounting for 95 per cent of Venezuela’s
trading numbers between the U.S. and Cuba export earnings, its heavily subsidized oil
since 2004, the country’s overall economic exports to Cuba have come under increasing
forecast continues to look positive as it pressure.

www.fundforpeace.org 28 The Fund for Peace

Low Warning Category

Cuba: South Africa: A City on a Hill?

Total Score, 2006-2015
85.0 the divisive and inflammatory rhetoric by key
Nate Haken people such as Zulu King Goodwill Zwelithini.
Worsening
In 2008 and 2009, South Africa’s Fragile This suggests that the core underlying causes
80.0 Improvement
States Index scores worsened significantly of these societal fissures are far from being
with a sharp recession and an outbreak of addressed, and may very well lead to violence
75.0 xenophobic violence killing dozens of and unrest again in the future.
foreigners. This year’s Index score was not as
bad. There were some challenges of course, This dynamic highlights just how important it is
70.0
such as electricity blackouts and a stuttering to have a methodology that tracks the social,
economy post-recession. But there were still economic, and political/security factors
65.0 high levels of approval for the government. together. No indicator can be understood in
isolation. Building sustainable peace requires
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) an understanding of the wider system and a
60.0
swept the general election despite allegations plan to influence it holistically.
of corruption on the part of President Jacob
Zuma. And externally, because of South
South Africa:
Recent developments may hamper progress Africa’s achievements in many of the areas Select Indicators, 2006-2015
slightly, driven by some U.S. Congressional measured by the Index (especially human
opposition to further opening relations with rights and economic opportunity) the country 7.0

Cuba. However this should not be confused or is perceived by many as truly representing a 6.5
conflated with the sustained performance of beacon of hope. Yet, over time pressures
6.0
Cuba over the past decade. Indeed, the nature have been gradually rising.
5.5
of Cuba’s recent improvement, somewhat
irrespective of U.S. policy, suggests that this is For anywhere considered to be a city on the 5.0

a positive trend that will be difficult to reverse. hill, when the economy is slow, immigration is 4.5
always more contentious, whether you are in
4.0
Overall, the combination of the opening of Durban or Arizona. In early 2015, violence
3.5
economic space with the normalization of broke out once again in Johannesburg and
3.0
diplomatic relations between the island and Durban, as mobs attacked immigrants, killing
Worsening
the U.S. will surely be trends to watch in the several and terrifying thousands. Worryingly, 2.5
Improvement
coming year to see whether Cuba not only the government’s response was to deploy the 2.0
continues to improve, but also capitalizes on military to city streets, along with a marked
its new connections for growth. reluctance of political leaders to quickly and
decisively denounce not only the violence, but

www.fundforpeace.org 29 The Fund for Peace

Acropolis Wow:
Greece Continues on a Slippery Slope
Stable Sebastian Pavlou Graham
57.8 Antigua & Barbuda (127) –1.2 Frequently, attention tends to focus on de-regulation and privatization policies,
countries at the most fragile end of the Fragile including selling public assets, cutting social
51.6 Bahamas (136) –2.5
States Index, the inherent assumption being expenditure, reducing labor costs, and raising
55.4 Bulgaria (130) +1.0 that perhaps those are the only countries we fiscal revenues.
need worry about. But just as important as
51.0 Croatia (137) –1.9
focusing upon – and actively addressing – the While the center-left Syriza Party’s victory in
52.6 Greece (134) +0.5 problems besetting countries at the worst end the January 2015 snap parliamentary
of the Index, note also needs to be taken of elections temporarily quelled civil unrest, the
57.5 Kuwait (128) +1.5
countries that, although perhaps finding rising political tension between the Syriza-led
57.0 Mongolia (129) –1.1 themselves at the more stable end of the government and Greece’s European creditors
Index, are nevertheless constantly sliding. resulted in the Troika’s suspension of the
54.2 Montenegro (132) –1.5
current bailout program pending negotiations
52.0 Oman (135) –1.1 Greece ranks as the 42nd most stable on a new set of payment conditions. The
country on this year’s Fragile States Index, unprecedented nature of these negotiations
54.6 Panama (131) –1.1
having dropped three spots from 2014, has renewed international concerns over
54.2 Romania (132) –2.7 registering a slight worsening of 0.5 points in whether Greece will strike a new deal with
its overall score since last year. While this puts European creditors or default on its debts and
58.7 Trinidad & Tobago (126) –2.6
Greece in the 25th percentile of the least potentially exit the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the
Countries listed in alphabetical order.
Points change versus 2014 score. fragile states on the Index, a closer look at the imminent liquidity crisis for both the Greek
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green
arrows signify improvement.
areas of decline offers a more accurate government and Greek financial system has
portrayal of the current threats to the nation’s resulted in plummeting stock prices on the
stability. Athens Stock Exchange.

Those indicators where Greece displayed the The so-called ‘Greek Depression’ has had
highest degree of fragility were once again, substantial, wide-ranging impact in social,
and by far, State Legitimacy and Economic political and economic terms. While austerity
Decline. This is unsurprising, considering the has helped reduce Greece’s primary deficit,
ongoing government-debt crisis during which the Greek economy has reportedly contracted
Greece has suffered five years of economic by 6 per cent annually in nominal terms and by
austerity and repeated rounds of large-scale as much as 10 per cent after adjusting for
protests driven by fierce anti-government inflation. GDP has diminished by over 25 per
sentiment. Greece was one of four European cent and wages have decreased as much as
countries that needed to be rescued by 33 per cent. Unemployment has trebled to 26
sovereign bailout programs, wherein Greece per cent and youth unemployment now stands
was offered a series of bailout loans based on at 50 per cent after peaking at 60 per cent last
conditions mandating that in return for a €240 year. The government still has an outstanding
billion bailout and a partial write-down of the debt of €330 billion and the debt-to-GDP ratio
debt owed to private creditors, the Greek stands at 177 per cent. Between November
government would implement a broad range of 2014 and February 2015, Greek bank deposits

www.fundforpeace.org 30 The Fund for Peace

Stable Category

shrank by nearly 15 per cent of their total Furthermore, socio-economic disparities Greece:
value, dropping to a 10-year low. Lower among EU member states, combined with a Total Score 2006-2015
production has led to dismissals and the loss loss of national sovereignty (perceived or
of thousands of jobs, further amplifying the real), rapid marginalization, and rising 55 .0
recession. immigration rates, has aggravated nationalist 53 .0
sentiments in Greece and paved the way for
51 .0
In societal terms, the austerity measures more radical political parties. Greece now has
49 .0
implemented in Greece have had dire effects one of the largest organized neo-Nazi
that have by-and-large reinforced the movements in Europe – ‘the Golden Dawn.’ In 47 .0

recession’s adverse consequences on income the 2015 legislative elections the Golden 45 .0
distribution. Pensions have been drastically Dawn secured third place in the popular vote.
43 .0
cut by up to 40 per cent and homelessness
41 .0
has increased by 25 per cent from 2009 to Looking forward, negotiations over the
39 .0
2011 with the striking phenomenon of a new conditions for Greece’s bailout are most likely
Worsening
demographic of recently-homeless people that to end with some degree of compromise both 37 .0
Improvement
includes those with medium or higher from the Greek government and lenders. A 35 .0
educations. Suicides have increased since new deal would probably mean a new iteration
2011, the most notable spike occurring in of austerity for Greece and undoubtedly
2012 with a 35.5 per cent rise in registered reignite public ire and civil unrest.
cases. Drug prevention centers and Comparison Between Greece, Ireland,
psychiatric clinics have closed down due to The country’s current state of socio-political Italy, Portugal, and Spain, 2006-2015
budget cuts while public hospital funding has volatility and economic uncertainty
been cut by 25 per cent, further reducing demonstrates how a nation can rank among 55 .0
access to health care services. These and the first quartile of least fragile states in the
50 .0
many other factors led the international Index, and yet still face critical challenges.
community to label the social situation in Moreover, Greece finds itself at the heart of 45 .0
Greece a humanitarian crisis. EU skepticism as member states grapple with
40 .0
asymmetrical recoveries to the 2008 financial
The past few years have also brought about crisis. 35 .0
the most significant upheaval in the Greek
30 .0
political system since the end of the military The fragility of the Greek state remains a
dictatorship in 1974. The deepening impact of crucial issue in the context of the stagnating 25 .0
the recession and the austerity measures Eurozone economy, with Greece’s staggering Worsening
20 .0
adopted as part of the emergency rescue economic decline, political upheaval, and rapid Improvement
packages have created an overwhelming social degradation over the past few years are 15 .0
feeling of dissatisfaction and concern among unparalleled in peacetime Europe.
Greek voters. The subsequent fragmentation
of the traditional two-party system in Greece
opened the door for smaller political parties.

www.fundforpeace.org 31 The Fund for Peace

Looking Beneath the Total Score:
United States
Very Stable Nate Haken
47.6 Argentina (141) +0.3 As the United States heads into a children fleeing human insecurity in Central
heated political campaign season, candidates America became a polarizing political issue
49.3 Barbados (138) –2.1
are beginning to frame their take on the social, with competing street protests with ethnic and
41.5 Chile (150) –0.5 economic, and political track the country is on racial overtones. Meanwhile, protests over
and what they would do to calibrate those alleged police brutality against African
46.7 Costa Rica (142) –1.8
trajectories. Certainly, to listen to pundits you Americans gathered steam with the deaths of
43.8 Estonia (146) –1.4 might suppose that the U.S. is either going to Eric Garner, Michael Brown, Tamir Rice, and
hell in a hand-basket or is the rock upon rests others. Unrest in Ferguson, Missouri was
49.1 Hungary (139) +0.8
the salvation of the world. severe enough to result in the deployment of
43.2 Italy (147) –0.2 the National Guard in August while pictures
The Fragile States Index is unlikely to resolve
and news stories of the protests and riots were
48.6 Latvia (140) +0.6 that debate. The overall Index score has
broadcast around the globe. The very nature
43.0 Lithuania (148) –0.2 hardly budged over the last half a dozen
of the accusations and debate regarding the
years, ranging from a low of 33.5 in calendar
actions by law enforcement that sparked that
40.9 Malta (151) –2.1 year 2012 (Highly Stable) to a high of 35.4 in
unrest, with clear racial and socio-economic
45.2 Mauritius (145) –0.9 calendar years 2013-2014 (also Highly
overtones, has also further contributed to
Stable). The U.S. may well be reliably highly
increasing group-based societal fissures.
46.3 Qatar (143) –2.6 stable as the overall score suggests. Or the
42.6 Slovak Republic (149) –2.7 static nature of those total scores could be the As often occurs when there is a rise in Group
product of an additive methodology where Grievance, the score for Factionalized Elites
40.9 Spain (151) –2.2
countries at either end of the index tend to also increased over the last six years. The
46.2 United Arab Emirates (144) –1.4 stay there. Indeed, since calendar year 2005, score peaked in calendar year 2013 with the
the most fragile states have always been government shutdown due to a disagreement
Highly Stable Sudan, South Sudan, or Somalia. At the other over the Affordable Care Act and did not come
end of the Index, the most stable country has back down in 2014. The 112th and 113th
30.4 Belgium (163) –1.6
always been either Norway or Finland. Or, on Congress (2011-2014) were the least
37.4 Czech Republic (154) –2.0 the other hand, (as we would argue) maybe productive sessions since before 1947 as
the world really is such that fragility begets measured by the number of bills passed into
33.7 France (160) –1.1
fragility and stability, stability. law, according to Brookings Institution’s Vital
36.0 Japan (157) –0.3 Statistics on Congressional Data initiative.
Either way, a disaggregation of the Index to its
39.8 Poland (153) –2.3 composite indicator scores tells a more
On the positive side, the Economy continued
34.4 Singapore (159) –1.5 nuanced story of rising group grievance and
to strengthen in 2014. Unemployment, which
factionalized elites in the U.S., masked in the
had peaked at 10 per cent in 2009, has been
31.6 Slovenia (162) –1.0 total score by an improving economy and
improving ever since and as of December
36.3 South Korea (156) –0.1 public services.
2014, was at 5.6 per cent. Public Services

33.4 United Kingdom (161) –0.9 Group Grievance in the U.S. has increased also improved in 2014, with the number of

every year since calendar year 2007. In 2014, uninsured Americans dropping from 17.1 per
35.3 United States (158) –0.1 cent to 12.9 per cent over the course of the
an immigration crisis of undocumented
36.5 Uruguay (155) –1.4 year according to Gallup.

www.fundforpeace.org 32 The Fund for Peace

Very Stable and Highly Stable Categories

As the campaigns begin in earnest in the United States of America: United States of America:
coming months, there will be many debates Select Indicators 2006-2015 Total Score 2006-2015
and disagreements about the reasons and
implications for these trends. The Index does 6.0 36 .0

not answer the question of who is responsible 35 .5

for factionalization or grievance or which 5.0
35 .0
policies may have contributed to
improvements in the economy or public 4.0 34 .5

services or whether those improvements meet 34 .0

reasonable targets of achievement. Those are 3.0
33 .5
for others to hash out. But the tool can help
frame those discussions for constructive 2.0 33 .0

dialogue by stakeholders, especially if we do a

32 .5
better job of digging beneath the aggregate 1.0
Worsening Worsening
32 .0
score and country ranking to look at indicator
Improvement Improvement
scores over time. 0.0 31 .5

European Countries Continue to be High Achievers

Further east, even despite conflict in the
J.J. Messner 1990s, three of the seven former Yugoslav
Europe:
The Benefits of Good Neighbors
This year, we celebrate the 70th states are among the seven most improved
anniversary of the end of World War II, and in countries in the past decade in the world. With
doing so it is important to acknowledge just the exception of Hungary and Ukraine, every
how far Europe has come in that time. Of the European country in the former Communist
Iceland
15 Sustainable or Very Sustainable countries bloc has improved — many significantly — in

Finland
Norway
n
de

on the Fragile States Index, 12 are European. the past decade. It is highly likely that much of
e
Sw

Expand that to include the More Stable this improvement has been helped by location, Estonia
United Kingdom Denmark Latvia
category as well, and that ratio becomes 18 situated in a region of other stable countries Lithuania
Ireland NL
European countries out of 26. As Europe has where stability begets stability. BE Poland
Germany
integrated further and further, politically and CZ
LX SK
AT HU
economically (and, for anyone who has But the continuing Greek economic crisis, as France CH
SI RO
HV BA RS
Ita

witnessed the Eurovision Song Contest, well as the rise of far right parties in multiple
ly

ME MK
apparently culturally as well), the continent European countries demonstrates that stability Portugal Spain AL
Greece
has become increasingly stable and cannot be taken for granted. For now at least,
sustainable. Indeed, all of those 18 European it is worth recognizing the good news that the Malta

countries improved even further, year-on-year Fragile States Index can tell us.
in 2015.

www.fundforpeace.org 33 The Fund for Peace

Sparkling Finnish:
Sustainable Scandinavia
Sustainable Hannah Blyth
24.3 Australia (170) –2.0 Every year, the most stable end of the Some Very Cross Countries:
Fragile States Index appears to tell a familiar Rankings of Least Fragile Countries
26.0 Austria (167) –2.5
story. Since the Fund for Peace began Rankings of the least fragile countries, 2006-2015

25.7 Canada (168) –1.7 assessing all major countries in 2006,

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Scandinavia has held a near-monopoly on the
21.5 Denmark (175) –1.3 2006
least fragile end of the Index.
28.1 Germany (165) –2.5 2007
It comes as no surprise that once again, 2015
23.4 Iceland (171) –2.5 2008
saw the four main Nordic countries come
24.7 Ireland (169) –1.4 2009
away with the best Index scores. The Nordic
Model has garnered praise over the past two 2010
22.2 Luxembourg (174) –2.4
decades for its unique mix of social welfare
2011
26.8 Netherlands (166) –1.8 and economic efficiency. This benchmark of a
2012
happy, healthy and productive populace
22.6 New Zealand (172) –1.5
amongst Denmark, Norway, Sweden and 2013
20.8 Norway (176) –2.2 Finland, has proven not only to work, but is 2014
sustainable.
29.7 Portugal (164) –3.4 2015

20.2 Sweden (177) –1.2 Despite many misconceptions about the

22.3 Switzerland (173) –1.0 Scandinavian big-spending socialist welfare Act. Social equality, high female workface
state, the Nordic countries have long ago left participation, robust functioning democratic
Very Sustainable behind their high public spending and taxation institutions and press freedom are just a few
rates of the 1970s and 1980s. They have now more commonalities which have helped the
17.8 Finland (178) –0.9 emerged in the twenty-first century as lean, Nordic four remain some of the least fragile
Countries listed in alphabetical order. green innovators and entrepreneurs with low countries.
Points change versus 2014 score.
Red arrows signify worsening year-on-year; green budget deficits and corporate tax rates well
arrows signify improvement.
below those of the United States. The Nordic However in spite of this high praise, as we
states enjoy high levels of transparency within look beyond 2015 the Nordic states must
public institutions and government, with their avoid the trappings of Group Grievance. The
Index scores for State Legitimacy, Human rise of ultra-nationalist right party politics in
Rights and Factionalized Elites all remaining Europe – including the anti-immigration
impressively low. Finland for example, Sweden Democrats, the country’s third largest
received high praise from the International party – has the potential to undermine the
Monetary Fund in its 2015 Fiscal egalitarian social fabric of the Scandinavian
Transparency Evaluation, while Sweden countries. If the Nordic four are to remain the
continues to pride itself on its long standing celebrated models of state sustainability, they
legacy of granting public access to office must ensure their model of inclusive and
documents under the Freedom of the Press prosperous stable society remains open to all.

www.fundforpeace.org 34 The Fund for Peace

Fragile States Index 2015:
Country Indicator Scores
Total
Rankings in order of fragility and risk

8th Afghanistan 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.1 7.2 8.6 9.7 9.3 8.6 10.0 9.3 9.8 107.9
125th Albania 4.1 3.1 5.0 7.1 4.2 5.2 6.2 4.5 5.5 4.7 6.2 6.1 61.9
67th Algeria 5.7 6.4 8.2 5.1 6.0 6.4 7.8 5.8 7.1 8.0 7.7 5.4 79.6
42nd Angola 8.7 7.6 7.3 6.0 9.6 5.6 8.3 8.9 7.3 6.0 7.2 5.6 88.1
127th Antigua and Barbuda 4.6 3.0 3.9 7.3 5.0 5.0 5.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 3.7 5.8 57.8
141st Argentina 3.8 2.0 5.0 3.0 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.6 2.8 4.0 47.6
108th Armenia 3.6 7.0 5.4 6.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 4.1 6.5 5.3 7.0 6.8 69.7
170th Australia 1.8 2.1 4.4 1.0 2.7 2.1 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.0 24.3
167th Austria 2.4 2.0 4.3 1.5 3.4 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.1 2.7 1.7 26.0
80th Azerbaijan 5.1 7.6 6.4 4.3 5.9 4.1 8.6 5.4 8.4 6.7 7.9 6.9 77.3
136th Bahamas 6.1 2.8 4.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.0 4.0 4.5 3.7 51.6
119th Bahrain 4.6 2.6 7.7 3.5 5.1 3.2 8.4 2.3 7.8 6.7 7.1 5.3 64.3
32nd Bangladesh 8.1 6.6 8.4 7.5 7.2 6.7 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.7 9.6 5.7 91.8
138th Barbados 3.8 2.7 4.1 5.4 5.1 5.7 3.0 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.2 5.4 49.3
87th Belarus 5.6 4.1 6.8 3.4 5.2 6.1 8.6 4.7 8.4 6.6 8.3 7.8 75.6
163rd Belgium 2.5 1.6 4.1 1.9 3.2 4.5 1.9 2.1 1.2 2.0 3.9 1.5 30.4
116th Belize 5.9 4.1 4.1 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 4.1 5.8 4.3 6.9 65.3
73rd Benin 8.2 6.0 3.9 6.8 7.5 6.6 6.2 8.6 5.6 6.2 6.1 7.1 78.8
74th Bhutan 6.0 6.9 7.9 6.8 6.9 5.7 5.0 6.6 6.5 5.0 7.5 7.9 78.7
76th Bolivia 6.7 3.8 6.5 6.4 8.6 5.4 7.0 6.9 5.9 6.6 8.0 6.2 78.0
78th Bosnia 6.1 7.3 7.1 5.5 5.6 5.8 7.0 4.1 5.8 6.2 8.7 8.2 77.4
122nd Botswana 7.5 5.2 5.4 5.1 7.7 6.3 3.8 6.0 4.4 3.5 3.3 4.6 62.8
123rd Brazil 7.6 3.1 5.9 4.1 7.7 3.9 5.1 5.9 5.8 5.9 4.9 2.7 62.6
121st Brunei 4.2 2.7 5.9 4.6 7.8 2.8 8.0 2.2 7.7 5.6 7.4 4.1 63.0
130th Bulgaria 4.2 3.5 5.2 4.6 4.9 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.4 4.1 5.3 4.8 55.4
39th Burkina Faso 9.1 7.1 5.0 6.9 8.1 7.1 8.1 8.9 6.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 89.2
18th Burundi 9.2 9.0 8.0 6.8 7.7 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.9 8.4 98.1
42nd Cambodia 7.0 5.8 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.4 8.4 7.7 8.3 6.7 8.2 7.4 87.9
28th Cameroon 8.0 7.8 8.1 7.5 7.8 6.2 8.4 8.8 8.0 7.6 9.1 7.0 94.3
168th Canada 2.4 2.0 3.9 2.2 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 1.0 25.7
94th Cape Verde 7.1 4.1 4.0 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.7 6.5 4.5 5.7 5.5 8.1 73.5
3rd Central African Republic 8.4 10.0 9.6 6.9 9.7 8.3 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.8 10.0 9.8 111.9
6th Chad 9.7 10.0 8.2 8.6 9.1 7.8 9.3 9.7 9.4 8.8 9.5 8.3 108.4
150th Chile 5.1 2.1 4.1 3.2 5.1 3.6 3.0 4.5 3.4 3.1 1.7 2.6 41.5
83rd China 7.4 5.6 8.3 4.6 7.4 3.4 8.0 6.2 9.2 5.9 7.2 3.2 76.4
61st Colombia 6.9 7.8 8.0 6.7 7.5 3.8 7.1 6.0 7.3 7.3 7.6 6.5 82.5
59th Comoros 7.6 4.5 5.0 7.8 7.0 8.0 6.8 8.0 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.8 83.3
5th Congo (Democratic Republic) 9.5 9.4 9.5 7.1 8.8 7.9 9.0 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.8 109.7
33rd Congo (Republic) 7.8 8.3 6.6 6.8 8.2 6.4 8.7 9.1 7.9 6.7 6.7 7.6 90.8
142nd Costa Rica 4.1 3.9 4.7 3.5 5.5 4.3 2.9 4.5 2.1 3.1 3.8 4.3 46.7
15th Cote d'Ivoire 8.1 9.0 8.7 6.7 7.9 7.1 8.5 9.0 7.9 8.3 9.1 9.7 100.0
137th Croatia 3.6 4.9 5.7 4.5 3.8 5.3 3.4 2.9 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.4 51.0
112nd Cuba 5.6 4.5 4.5 5.7 5.9 4.5 7.0 4.7 7.3 5.7 7.0 5.0 67.4
114th Cyprus 4.0 4.5 7.0 4.5 6.4 6.7 5.3 3.0 3.3 4.4 7.9 9.2 66.2
154th Czech Republic 1.9 2.0 3.8 2.8 3.2 4.8 4.2 3.1 2.1 2.6 4.3 2.6 37.4

www.fundforpeace.org 35 The Fund for Peace

A-Z Country Scores by Indicator

Total
Rankings in order of fragility and risk

175th Denmark 2.5 1.4 3.6 1.9 2.1 2.5 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 21.5
41st Djibouti 8.2 7.1 6.6 5.8 7.8 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.2 6.9 7.3 8.4 88.1
104th Dominican Republic 6.8 3.8 5.8 7.6 6.3 5.3 6.0 6.8 5.5 5.2 6.2 5.9 71.2
85th Ecuador 5.7 5.2 7.8 6.2 6.8 5.3 7.0 6.3 5.1 6.7 8.2 5.6 75.9
38th Egypt 7.1 6.7 8.7 4.7 6.5 8.1 8.7 5.4 9.8 8.2 9.0 7.1 90.0
102nd El Salvador 6.9 5.1 6.3 6.9 6.6 5.9 4.8 6.7 6.1 6.5 4.3 5.3 71.4
54th Equatorial Guinea 7.7 3.3 6.3 6.0 9.0 5.2 9.8 7.1 9.7 7.0 8.2 5.5 84.8
24th Eritrea 8.8 7.8 6.1 7.6 7.2 8.3 9.1 8.7 9.3 7.7 8.1 8.2 96.9
146th Estonia 3.3 2.9 6.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 2.0 3.1 5.5 3.1 43.8
20th Ethiopia 9.2 9.4 8.5 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.4 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.6 7.9 97.5
82nd Fiji 4.7 3.4 7.0 7.6 6.8 6.7 7.4 4.5 6.9 6.7 7.9 7.2 76.8
178th Finland 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.0 3.8 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 17.8
160th France 2.8 2.2 6.8 2.2 3.7 4.8 1.8 1.5 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 33.7
104th Gabon 7.1 5.0 3.7 5.5 6.9 4.8 7.4 6.8 6.9 5.0 7.1 5.1 71.3
51st Gambia 8.2 6.4 3.7 7.7 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.7 8.6 6.0 6.8 7.5 85.4
70th Georgia 3.9 7.4 7.8 5.4 5.9 5.8 8.8 4.8 5.8 7.3 9.1 7.3 79.3
165th Germany 2.5 3.0 4.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.2 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.3 28.1
100th Ghana 7.1 5.5 4.6 7.6 7.1 6.3 5.0 7.9 5.2 4.1 4.9 6.6 71.9
134th Greece 3.6 1.6 5.0 3.8 4.2 6.5 6.5 3.9 3.4 4.5 3.7 5.9 52.6
120th Grenada 5.2 3.2 3.8 8.4 5.3 5.9 5.9 3.7 3.7 5.6 5.6 7.1 63.4
64th Guatemala 7.3 5.5 7.9 6.7 8.0 6.0 6.6 7.4 6.6 7.0 6.0 5.4 80.4
10th Guinea 9.0 8.7 8.7 7.2 7.6 9.2 9.9 9.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 8.1 104.9
17th Guinea Bissau 8.2 7.8 5.7 8.5 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 7.2 8.8 9.6 8.8 99.9
107th Guyana 5.6 3.6 6.5 9.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.1 3.9 5.8 5.1 6.5 70.5
11th Haiti 9.5 8.2 6.7 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.1 7.4 7.5 9.1 9.9 104.5
76th Honduras 6.8 3.7 6.4 6.9 7.7 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.7 6.6 7.4 78.2
139th Hungary 2.3 2.5 4.7 3.3 4.3 5.9 6.6 3.3 4.5 2.4 5.3 4.0 49.1
171st Iceland 1.6 1.4 1.3 2.8 1.6 3.6 0.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.8 4.6 23.4
69th India 8.0 5.4 8.3 5.5 7.5 5.6 5.2 7.5 5.9 7.9 7.3 5.3 79.4
88th Indonesia 7.1 5.9 7.3 6.3 6.3 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.8 6.2 7.0 5.3 75.0
44th Iran 5.4 6.5 8.5 6.2 6.1 6.9 8.9 5.0 9.3 8.0 9.4 7.0 87.2
12th Iraq 8.2 8.9 10.0 8.1 7.8 6.9 9.2 7.5 8.9 10.0 9.6 9.4 104.5
169th Ireland 2.2 1.4 1.9 2.8 2.7 4.1 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.9 24.7
68th Israel/West Bank 6.0 7.4 9.7 3.8 6.9 3.9 6.3 5.3 7.4 7.0 8.1 7.6 79.4
147th Italy 3.1 3.7 4.9 2.0 3.4 5.6 4.2 2.3 2.5 4.4 4.9 2.2 43.2
117th Jamaica 5.2 3.0 3.9 7.8 5.9 7.1 5.3 5.8 4.9 6.3 3.7 5.7 64.6
157th Japan 4.8 3.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 4.6 1.7 2.1 3.4 1.4 2.6 3.6 36.0
81st Jordan 7.0 8.8 7.7 3.6 5.9 6.3 6.1 4.7 7.6 5.5 6.9 6.8 76.9
110th Kazakhstan 5.0 3.5 7.0 3.6 4.7 6.5 8.0 4.5 7.5 5.7 7.6 4.7 68.3
21st Kenya 9.0 8.3 9.0 7.5 8.3 7.5 8.1 7.9 6.5 8.4 8.9 8.0 97.4
128th Kuwait 5.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 4.7 3.0 7.3 2.5 7.3 3.9 7.5 4.4 57.5
62nd Kyrgyz Republic 5.9 5.8 8.4 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.8 5.6 7.2 6.8 8.0 6.9 82.2
55th Laos 7.1 5.6 6.3 7.4 6.9 5.5 9.0 7.7 8.1 6.0 8.3 6.6 84.5
140th Latvia 3.4 2.9 7.4 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.3 3.8 48.6
40th Lebanon 5.7 9.1 8.6 5.4 5.7 5.9 7.8 5.4 7.2 8.8 9.3 9.2 88.1

www.fundforpeace.org 36 The Fund for Peace

 Total
Rankings in order of fragility and risk

66th Lesotho 7.7 4.9 4.4 7.4 7.3 8.3 6.4 8.0 4.8 5.6 7.3 7.8 79.9
21st Liberia 9.5 9.2 6.2 6.6 8.3 8.6 7.3 9.7 6.7 6.9 8.3 10.0 97.3
25th Libya 5.4 7.4 7.8 6.4 6.1 8.0 9.8 7.5 9.0 9.3 9.1 9.5 95.3
148th Lithuania 3.3 2.6 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.0 3.2 4.0 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 43.0
174th Luxembourg 1.7 1.7 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.0 3.4 1.6 22.2
118th Macedonia 3.3 5.3 7.0 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 4.4 3.9 5.4 7.0 5.9 64.5
56th Madagascar 8.5 3.9 4.6 6.1 8.5 7.6 7.2 9.1 6.1 7.1 7.6 7.3 83.6
44th Malawi 8.8 6.1 5.4 8.1 8.4 8.6 6.9 7.8 6.2 4.8 7.7 8.1 86.9
115th Malaysia 5.8 4.2 6.2 4.5 5.3 3.6 6.9 4.7 7.2 6.8 6.5 4.2 65.9
91st Maldives 5.8 4.7 4.6 5.6 4.1 6.4 8.5 6.1 7.5 6.1 7.8 7.0 74.2
30th Mali 9.1 7.8 7.6 8.4 7.4 8.2 6.0 9.0 6.7 8.7 4.9 9.3 93.1
151st Malta 2.8 4.6 3.9 4.0 2.9 4.2 3.9 2.3 3.3 3.4 2.0 3.6 40.9
26th Mauritania 8.6 8.5 6.9 6.3 7.1 8.0 7.9 8.9 8.0 7.4 8.8 8.5 94.9
145th Mauritius 4.1 2.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.7 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.2 5.2 45.2
99th Mexico 6.2 4.4 6.4 5.8 6.6 4.6 5.9 6.8 6.5 8.0 5.1 5.5 71.8
94th Micronesia 7.1 3.2 4.0 9.0 8.4 8.1 6.0 5.7 3.1 5.1 5.6 8.3 73.6
96th Moldova 5.3 4.4 6.5 6.4 5.3 6.3 6.3 5.4 5.4 6.6 7.8 7.3 73.0
129th Mongolia 5.5 2.4 4.3 3.1 6.4 4.3 4.5 5.7 4.8 4.0 5.5 6.5 57.0
132nd Montenegro 3.3 4.5 7.3 3.6 2.9 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 4.0 6.3 5.9 54.2
89th Morocco 5.5 5.3 7.1 7.6 6.3 5.3 6.5 5.7 7.0 5.7 6.6 6.0 74.6
46th Mozambique 8.7 5.0 5.9 7.4 8.6 7.8 7.2 9.0 6.1 7.0 6.9 7.3 86.9
27th Myanmar 6.8 8.3 9.7 5.7 8.2 6.5 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.0 94.7
106th Namibia 7.0 5.5 5.9 6.5 8.1 7.1 3.8 7.3 4.3 4.9 3.5 6.9 70.8
35th Nepal 7.9 7.6 9.1 7.0 7.5 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.7 7.0 8.3 7.4 90.5
166th Netherlands 3.0 2.1 3.9 2.6 2.7 3.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 1.2 26.8
172nd New Zealand 1.9 1.1 4.1 2.1 2.8 3.9 0.5 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 22.6
72nd Nicaragua 6.2 4.6 6.5 8.1 7.9 6.2 7.3 7.2 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.3 79.0
19th Niger 9.6 7.9 7.5 6.9 8.4 8.2 7.5 9.3 6.8 8.7 8.9 8.1 97.8
14th Nigeria 8.8 7.5 9.9 7.1 8.8 7.6 9.1 9.1 8.8 9.9 9.8 6.0 102.4
29th North Korea 7.5 4.3 6.3 4.2 8.0 9.0 10.0 8.9 9.7 8.6 8.5 8.8 93.8
176th Norway 2.0 1.9 3.7 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.4 1.4 1.3 2.5 1.1 1.2 20.8
135th Oman 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.9 4.2 4.5 6.6 3.8 7.5 4.7 6.6 2.2 52.0
13th Pakistan 9.0 8.9 10.0 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.6 7.9 8.4 9.6 9.2 9.3 102.9
131st Panama 5.7 3.5 5.6 4.0 7.3 3.4 4.0 5.5 4.8 5.1 2.5 3.2 54.6
57th Papua New Guinea 7.3 4.6 6.3 7.1 9.0 6.2 6.9 8.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 6.7 83.4
103rd Paraguay 5.9 2.2 5.9 5.2 8.4 5.1 7.1 6.7 6.1 6.5 7.8 4.4 71.3
98th Peru 5.3 4.8 7.5 6.7 7.3 3.7 7.1 7.1 4.6 7.1 6.7 4.0 71.9
48th Philippines 8.2 7.4 8.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 7.5 7.2 5.9 9.1 8.0 6.3 86.3
153rd Poland 3.3 2.8 4.4 4.4 3.5 4.1 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 3.8 2.7 39.8
164th Portugal 2.6 1.6 2.6 2.2 2.9 5.1 1.8 2.7 2.3 1.6 1.8 2.5 29.7
143rd Qatar 4.3 1.8 4.6 3.1 5.2 2.6 6.0 1.8 6.2 2.5 5.0 3.2 46.3
132nd Romania 3.7 2.7 6.8 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.6 4.3 3.9 3.5 5.2 4.1 54.2
65th Russia 5.1 5.7 9.3 4.5 6.4 4.4 7.9 4.7 8.9 9.1 8.1 5.9 80.0
37th Rwanda 8.0 7.9 8.8 7.5 8.2 6.3 6.5 7.3 7.7 6.2 8.0 7.8 90.2
111th Samoa 6.2 2.1 4.5 8.9 5.4 6.5 6.2 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.1 8.6 68.2

www.fundforpeace.org 37 The Fund for Peace

A-Z Country Scores by Indicator

Total
Rankings in order of fragility and risk

93rd Sao Tome & Principe 6.7 4.3 4.5 7.9 6.5 8.4 6.1 5.8 3.8 5.5 6.3 7.9 73.7
101st Saudi Arabia 5.8 4.6 7.4 3.7 5.8 4.4 7.8 3.7 9.2 6.4 8.0 4.8 71.6
60th Senegal 8.0 7.8 6.3 7.4 7.3 7.3 5.5 7.9 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.5 83.0
92nd Serbia 5.5 7.0 8.1 5.3 5.3 6.7 5.7 4.7 4.9 6.0 8.0 6.6 73.8
124th Seychelles 5.1 3.1 4.5 5.5 6.0 4.6 5.7 3.2 4.6 6.6 5.7 7.5 62.1
31st Sierra Leone 9.5 8.2 6.2 8.4 8.8 8.7 6.9 9.3 5.6 4.8 7.7 7.8 91.9
159th Singapore 2.9 1.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 2.5 3.8 1.8 4.6 1.6 4.0 1.7 34.4
149th Slovak Republic 2.8 2.0 5.9 4.2 4.0 5.1 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 3.7 3.3 42.6
162nd Slovenia 2.8 1.4 3.9 2.8 3.9 4.2 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.3 31.6
50th Solomon Islands 8.5 4.9 6.5 6.3 8.9 7.6 7.3 7.6 5.7 6.4 8.2 8.0 85.9
2nd Somalia 9.6 9.8 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.5 114.0
113th South Africa 7.0 5.9 5.5 4.9 7.4 6.3 5.3 6.4 4.3 5.3 5.6 3.1 67.0
156th South Korea 2.8 1.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 2.0 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 3.8 5.4 36.3
1st South Sudan 9.8 10.0 10.0 6.9 8.8 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 114.5
151st Spain 2.5 1.7 5.8 2.4 4.0 5.0 3.3 2.7 1.9 3.3 6.1 2.2 40.9
34th Sri Lanka 6.0 8.2 9.3 7.8 7.6 5.9 8.0 5.6 8.8 7.9 9.1 6.4 90.6
4th Sudan 8.7 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.9 8.6 9.6 8.8 9.6 9.5 9.8 9.8 110.8
109th Suriname 5.3 3.0 5.8 7.3 6.6 6.8 5.5 5.8 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.2 68.4
48th Swaziland 8.5 4.9 3.7 6.9 8.1 9.3 8.5 7.5 8.5 6.0 6.8 7.6 86.3
177th Sweden 2.5 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.3 1.0 1.6 1.0 2.1 1.8 1.0 20.2
173rd Switzerland 1.9 2.1 3.6 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 22.3
9th Syria 8.1 10.0 10.0 7.4 7.0 7.5 9.9 8.2 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 107.9
57th Tajikistan 7.8 4.8 7.3 6.3 5.6 7.4 9.1 5.9 7.6 6.8 8.4 6.4 83.4
63rd Tanzania 8.8 6.4 5.7 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.0 8.7 6.0 5.5 5.7 7.3 80.8
71st Thailand 6.9 6.0 8.5 4.1 5.8 4.0 8.0 4.9 7.7 8.9 10.0 4.3 79.1
35th Timor-Leste 8.9 6.8 6.5 7.0 6.7 8.4 7.4 8.4 5.8 7.7 8.3 8.7 90.6
47th Togo 8.0 7.1 4.5 7.3 8.1 6.8 8.1 8.6 7.2 7.0 7.6 6.5 86.8
126th Trinidad & Tobago 5.0 3.0 4.1 7.5 5.5 4.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 5.7 5.6 3.6 58.7
86th Tunisia 4.7 4.1 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.6 7.0 4.9 7.0 7.8 8.1 6.9 75.8
89th Turkey 5.5 7.5 9.0 3.7 6.2 5.0 6.3 4.9 6.4 7.7 7.3 5.0 74.5
78th Turkmenistan 5.7 3.9 7.1 5.1 6.9 5.0 9.7 6.1 8.8 6.8 7.8 4.6 77.5
23rd Uganda 8.9 8.8 8.7 7.3 7.3 7.0 8.0 8.3 7.9 7.6 8.9 8.3 97.0
84th Ukraine 4.5 4.4 7.0 5.5 4.7 6.5 8.5 3.8 6.4 7.9 8.0 9.1 76.3
144th United Arab Emirates 4.5 2.2 3.9 2.5 4.2 2.9 6.6 2.7 7.1 3.1 3.6 2.9 46.2
161st United Kingdom 2.6 2.4 5.6 2.1 3.7 3.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.5 3.5 1.2 33.4
158th United States 3.0 2.1 5.0 1.5 4.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 3.7 2.8 4.0 1.1 35.3
155th Uruguay 3.5 1.9 3.0 4.4 4.2 3.2 1.4 3.4 2.2 3.7 2.7 2.9 36.5
52nd Uzbekistan 6.1 6.0 7.6 6.3 7.0 6.8 9.6 5.4 9.1 7.6 8.8 5.1 85.4
74th Venezuela 5.1 4.8 7.3 5.2 6.7 6.5 8.6 7.2 8.3 6.5 8.1 4.3 78.6
97th Vietnam 6.1 4.7 6.5 5.6 5.5 5.8 8.1 5.2 7.8 5.1 6.9 5.1 72.4
7th Yemen 9.2 9.1 9.4 7.5 8.1 9.3 9.3 8.2 9.1 10.0 9.4 9.5 108.1
53rd Zambia 9.4 6.9 5.7 7.8 8.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.0 5.7 6.6 85.2
16th Zimbabwe 8.7 8.4 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.0 9.0 8.5 8.3 7.9 9.7 7.6 100.0

www.fundforpeace.org 38 The Fund for Peace

The Fund for Peace:
Promoting Sustainability Since 1957

The Fund for Peace (FFP) works to data available publicly for decision and policy
prevent conflict and promote sustainable makers to develop better informed and better
security by building relationships and trust coordinated approaches to peace-building. We
across diverse sectors and by developing advise companies operating in complex
innovative technologies and tools. FFP has environments on how to ensure they operate
worked in over 60 countries with a wide range stability. Combining social science techniques responsibly, respecting and even promoting
of partners in all sectors: governments, with information technology, we have human rights and greater stability. Most
international organizations, the military, non- produced the patented Conflict Assessment importantly, in all our work we strive to build
governmental organizations, academics, System Tool (CAST), a content analysis capacity among local actors so they can
journalists, civil society networks, and the software product that provides a conceptual ultimately develop and implement the
private sector. Our projects include supporting framework and a data gathering technique for solutions needed in their local context,
grassroots organizations, developing national measuring conflict risk. Annually, we produce because we believe that is key to truly
dialogues, and taking leadership roles in The Fragile States Index, a ranking of 178 sustainable human security.
international initiatives. countries across 12 indicators that is
published by Foreign Policy magazine. Founded in 1957, FFP is an independent,
Our objective is to create practical tools and nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit organization
approaches for conflict mitigation that are We build early warning networks in complex based in Washington, D.C.
useful to those who can help create greater environments to collect data and make this

Harnessing Data for Conflict and Risk Assessment at the Fund for Peace
FFP’s CAST framework has been used triangulation with other data sets and potential risks, as well as progress in
to perform analysis at the national level for methodologies in the generation of conflict stabilization and development activities by
many years, with FFP now possessing over a assessment reports for a variety of clients. understanding key aspects of the social,
decade of social, economic, and political data FFP also performs assessments at community economic, and political environment, and over
and trends for 178 countries. This data can be and site levels (however a modified time, overall longer-term trends. This in-depth
visualized to demonstrate overall trends as methodology is utilized with a proportionally analysis allows for the evaluation of the
well as allowing “drill-down” analysis on lower input from content analysis and a circumstances behind spikes in trend lines,
individual indicators. CAST has been used at greater emphasis on information and data and for identifying correlations between
the national level, but also at a sub-regional from local sources). indicator trends to generate hypotheses about
level, from providing an assessment following the unique circumstances in the conflict
the floods in Pakistan’s Sindh province to Content analysis is a unique tool that uses landscape of concern.
demonstrating how the situations in Mindanao computer technology (including proprietary
in the south of the Philippines and Luzon in algorithms and Boolean search terms) to scan For more information regarding FFP’s conflict
the north can be significantly different. thousands – or even millions – of news reports and risk assessment work, contact Nate
and track trends in pressures at the national Haken, Director of Conflict Assessment, Data
Drawing upon the CAST conflict assessment and provincial levels. These reports can be and Analysis, at nhaken@fundforpeace.org.
framework, FFP uses content analysis in used to evaluate historical context, current or

www.fundforpeace.org
www.fundforpeace.org