DATE Airline Miles(billions)

Jan2003 32.85
Feb2003 30.81
Mar2003 37.59
Apr2003 35.23
May2003 36.57
Jun2003 39.75
Jul2003 43.37
Aug2003 42.09
Sep2003 32.55 alp bet
Oct2003 36.44 0.548513 0.049142
Nov2003 34.35
Dec2003 37.39 Seasonal Indices
Jan2004 33.54 0.90305
Feb2004 33.91 0.875947
Mar2004 40.81 1.053815
Apr2004 40.17 1.008006
May2004 39.67 1.011706
Jun2004 43.65 1.099865
Jul2004 46.26 1.173706
Aug2004 44.70 1.129149
Sep2004 35.47 SSE 77.8196 0.879644
Oct2004 39.63 0.977359
Nov2004 37.57 Base Trend Forecast Error Sq Error 0.918146
Dec2004 39.12 40.34378 1.006491 0.969609
Jan2005 36.12 40.27083 1.006083 36.6689 0.55 0.3038 0.899411
Feb2005 34.56 39.93414 1.005373 35.4897 0.93 0.8628 0.869764
Mar2005 43.64 40.8425 1.006227 42.3093 -1.33 1.7767 1.06249
Apr2005 40.24 40.45404 1.005453 41.42583 1.18 1.3953 1.000244
May2005 41.80 41.02748 1.005882 41.15077 -0.65 0.4235 1.015922
Jun2005 44.68 40.91303 1.005456 45.39013 0.71 0.5089 1.09523
Jul2005 47.56 40.80036 1.005052 48.28184 0.72 0.5166 1.169023
Aug2005 45.14 40.43957 1.00437 46.30243 1.17 1.3620 1.121477
Sep2005 37.04 41.43753 1.005368 35.72785 -1.32 1.7346 0.888093
Oct2005 38.85 40.61218 1.004125 40.71671 1.87 3.4855 0.965139
Nov2005 38.16 41.20776 1.004643 37.44172 -0.72 0.5134 0.922768
Dec2005 39.18 40.85333 1.003992 40.14091 0.96 0.9307 0.963331
Jan2006 36.68 40.88625 1.003835 36.89062 0.21 0.0456 0.898023
Feb2006 34.75 40.44253 1.003114 35.6978 0.95 0.9068 0.863505
Mar2006 42.89 40.45961 1.002981 43.10358 0.21 0.0445 1.061105
Apr2006 41.30 40.96754 1.003452 40.59014 -0.71 0.4988 1.004827
May2006 41.49 40.9608 1.003274 41.76349 0.27 0.0753 1.014141
Jun2006 44.03 40.60274 1.002684 45.00839 0.98 0.9658 1.088796
 Jul2006 46.16 40.03807 1.001868 47.59291 1.44 2.0612 1.159491
Aug2006 44.15 39.70539 1.001368 44.98567 0.83 0.6941 1.115899
Sep2006 36.49 40.48793 1.002269 35.31032 -1.18 1.3902 0.895834
Oct2006 39.68 40.87523 1.002628 39.16515 -0.52 0.2702 0.968519
Nov2006 38.67 41.49161 1.00324 37.81748 -0.86 0.7331 0.928254
Dec2006 39.62 41.35105 1.002914 40.09966 0.48 0.2332 0.960227
Jan2007 36.92 41.27354 1.002679 37.24243 0.32 0.1051 0.895935
Feb2007 34.50 40.60208 1.001748 35.7354 1.23 1.5157 0.855445
Mar2007 42.90 40.53928 1.001586 43.15837 0.26 0.0670 1.059408
Apr2007 41.37 40.91384 1.001962 40.79956 -0.57 0.3230 1.00852
May2007 42.21 41.34007 1.002378 41.57383 -0.64 0.4091 1.018254
Jun2007 44.50 41.12532 1.002005 45.11793 0.62 0.3861 1.08478
Jul2007 46.47 40.58714 1.001264 47.78007 1.31 1.7213 1.150898
Aug2007 45.76 40.8412 1.001509 45.3484 -0.41 0.1702 1.118584
Sep2007 37.08 41.16824 1.001829 36.64215 -0.43 0.1879 0.898633
Oct2007 39.96 41.25289 1.00184 39.94513 -0.02 0.0003 0.968626
Nov2007 38.39 41.34247 1.001856 38.3636 -0.02 0.0005 0.928403
Dec2007 38.29 40.57104 1.000848 39.77183 1.48 2.2047 0.950498
Jan2008 37.49 41.28648 1.001673 36.37985 -1.11 1.2374 0.903098
Feb2008 36.86 42.3032 1.002801 35.3774 -1.48 2.1843 0.864732
Mar2008 44.20 42.03861 1.002356 44.94187 0.74 0.5474 1.05473
Apr2008 40.89 41.26326 1.001334 42.49664 1.61 2.5846 0.998163
May2008 42.59 41.59788 1.001667 42.07253 -0.52 0.2694 1.021571
Jun2008 44.66 41.39434 1.001344 45.19975 0.54 0.2912 1.081314
Jul2008 46.49 40.87111 1.000657 47.70471 1.21 1.4753 1.142998
Aug2008 44.97 40.51633 1.000198 45.74781 0.78 0.6057 1.113478
Sep2008 34.88 39.58833 0.999063 36.41652 1.53 2.3517 0.888336
Oct2008 38.13 39.44798 0.998935 38.31034 0.18 0.0332 0.967397
Nov2008 34.27 38.03874 0.997231 36.58459 2.31 5.3552 0.912231
Dec2008 37.16 38.56863 0.998052 36.05565 -1.10 1.2116 0.958084
Jan2009 33.30 37.60684 0.996922 34.76339 1.46 2.1312 0.892779
Feb2009 31.69 37.02647 0.996315 32.41976 0.73 0.5365 0.859473
Mar2009 39.06 36.96669 0.996417 38.90901 -0.15 0.0217 1.055789
Apr2009 38.14 37.5868 0.997417 36.76656 -1.37 1.8755 1.007848
May2009 38.41 37.54897 0.997495 38.29843 -0.11 0.0122 1.022352
Jun2009 41.15 37.78228 0.997923 40.50053 -0.65 0.4165 1.085855
Jul2009 44.22 38.24135 0.998622 43.0954 -1.12 1.2547 1.150784
Aug2009 42.40 38.12699 0.998543 42.52225 0.13 0.0157 1.112605
Sep2009 34.68 38.59948 0.999224 33.82022 -0.86 0.7313 0.894225
Oct2009 37.32 38.57293 0.999228 37.31204 -0.01 0.0000 0.967438
Nov2009 34.58 38.1922 0.998781 35.16026 0.58 0.3407 0.908168
Dec2009 36.46 38.09545 0.998716 36.54674 0.09 0.0077 0.957473
Jan2010 33.49 37.75164 0.998336 33.96716 0.48 0.2304 0.889399
Feb2010 30.72 36.6202 0.996945 32.39254 1.67 2.8038 0.847319
Mar2010 39.37 36.93667 0.99752 38.5451 -0.82 0.6798 1.061723
Apr2010 37.76 37.18689 0.997975 37.13423 -0.63 0.3945 1.012338
May2010 38.88 37.61729 0.998643 37.94109 -0.94 0.8885 1.029013
Jun2010 41.90 38.12718 0.999376 40.79149 -1.11 1.2331 1.093597
Jul2010 44.02 38.18588 0.999482 43.84877 -0.17 0.0300 1.151989
Aug2010 42.81 38.33836 0.999704 42.46379 -0.35 0.1221 1.115028
Sep2010 36.13 39.46708 1.001165 34.27296 -1.86 3.4546 0.906744
Oct2010 39.18 40.05566 1.001841 38.22646 -0.96 0.9159 0.97379
Nov2010 36.67 40.26667 1.002009 36.44424 -0.23 0.0517 0.909669
Dec2010 37.43 39.65708 1.001166 38.63169 1.21 1.4528 0.949393
Jan2011 34.33 39.09606 1.000414 35.3121 0.98 0.9696 0.882704
Feb2011 31.83 38.26068 0.999343 33.14054 1.32 1.7304 0.838179
Mar2011 40.51 38.18969 0.999285 40.59558 0.09 0.0079 1.061105
Apr2011 38.51 38.0933 0.999196 38.63321 0.13 0.0162 1.011448
May2011 40.43 38.7357 1.000064 39.16698 -1.26 1.5942 1.037678
Jun2011 42.57 38.84163 1.000195 42.36397 -0.21 0.0425 1.095009
Jul2011 45.07 39.00168 1.000388 44.75388 -0.32 0.1025 1.154172
Aug2011 42.78 38.66139 0.99994 43.50483 0.72 0.5220 1.11006
Sep2011 36.70 39.65425 1.001205 35.05387 -1.65 2.7064 0.917772
Oct2011 38.70 39.72586 1.001235 38.66143 -0.04 0.0018 0.974072
Nov2011 36.83 40.16433 1.001716 36.182 -0.65 0.4171 0.913943
Dec2011 37.49 39.82658 1.001219 38.1972 0.70 0.4955 0.944695
Jan2012 34.31 39.32558 1.000541 35.19792 0.88 0.7821 0.876726
Feb2012 33.26 39.53299 1.000773 32.97971 -0.28 0.0809 0.840092
Mar2012 40.78 38.94334 1.000002 41.9811 1.20 1.4396 1.052915
Apr2012 38.81 38.6274 0.999604 39.38927 0.58 0.3396 1.007438
Base Trend Forecast Error Sq Eerror Seasonal Indices
forecasts Forecast
1 May-12 40.06691
2 Jun-12 42.26383
3 Jul-12 44.52966
4 Aug-12 42.81079
5 Sep-12 35.38092
6 Oct-12 37.53649
7 Nov-12 35.20541
8 Dec-12 36.37556
total 314.1696
gam
0.588773
base 35.067123
trend 1.0064906
MonthNumMonth Month AirlineMiles (billions) Forecast Error
1 0.9030496 1 Jan2003 1 32.85 31.872892 0.98
2 0.8759475 2 Feb2003 2 30.81 31.116994 -0.30
3 1.0538147 3 Mar2003 3 37.59 37.678497 -0.09
4 1.008006 4 Apr2003 4 35.23 36.27456 -1.05
5 1.0117056 5 May2003 5 36.57 36.644002 -0.07
6 1.0998653 6 Jun2003 6 39.75 40.095717 -0.35
7 1.1737055 7 Jul2003 7 43.37 43.065287 0.30
8 1.1291486 8 Aug2003 8 42.09 41.699323 0.39
9 0.879644 9 Sep2003 9 32.55 32.695996 -0.15
10 0.9773586 10 Oct2003 10 36.44 36.563799 -0.12
11 0.918146 11 Nov2003 11 34.35 34.57155 -0.22
12 0.9696086 12 Dec2003 12 37.39 36.746272 0.64
13 Jan2004 1 33.54 34.445948 -0.91
mean 1 14 Feb2004 2 33.91 33.629028 0.28
15 Mar2004 3 40.81 40.720232 0.08
16 Apr2004 4 40.17 39.202958 0.97
17 May2004 5 39.67 39.602224 0.07
18 Jun2004 6 43.65 43.332591 0.32
19 Jul2004 7 46.26 46.541891 -0.28
20 Aug2004 8 44.70 45.065655 -0.36
21 Sep2004 9 35.47 35.335501 0.14
22 Oct2004 10 39.63 39.515547 0.11
23 Nov2004 11 37.57 37.362466 0.20
24 Dec2004 12 39.12 39.71275 -0.60
SSE
5.63
Sq Error
0.96
0.09
0.01
1.10
0.01
0.12
0.09
0.15
0.02
0.01
0.05
0.41
0.83
0.08
0.01
0.94
0.00
0.10
0.08
0.13
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.35