Forecasting 1
Forecasting 1
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1. Describe the content of the four basic 4. Use the balance sheet to describe a firm’s
financial statements and discuss the investments in assets and the way it has
importance of financial statement analysis financed them.
to the financial manager. 5. Identify the sources and uses of cash for a
2. Evaluate firm profitability using the income firm using the firm’s cash flow statement.
statement.
3. Estimate a firm’s tax liability using the
corporate tax schedule and distinguish
between the average and marginal tax
rate.
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Basic Financial Statements Basic Financial Statements (cont.)
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2. Balance sheet: Balance sheet contains 3. Cash flow statement: It reports cash
information on a specific date (for example, received and cash spent by the firm over a
as of December 31, 2013) of the following: period of time.
• Assets (everything of value the company owns),
• Liabilities (the firm’s debts), and
• Shareholders’ equity (the money invested by the 4. Statement of shareholder’s equity: It
company owners). provides a detailed account of the firm’s
activities in the following accounts:
Common stock & Preferred stock account,
Retained earnings account, and Changes to
owners’ equity.
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Analyzing a firm’s financial statement can help • This chapter discusses the distinction
managers carry out three important tasks: between the earnings numbers that the
1. Assess current performance, firm’s accountants calculate and the amount
2. Monitor and control operations, and of cash that a firm generates.
3. Plan and forecast future performance.
• It is possible for a firm to report positive
accounting earnings while generating
negative cash flows (and vice versa).
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What are the Accounting Principles Used
to Prepare Financial Statements?
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An income statement (also called a profit and An income statement will contain the
loss statement) measures the amount of following:
profits generated by a firm over a given time 1. Revenues
period (usually a year or a quarter). It can be 2. Expenses
expressed as follows:
– Cost of goods sold, Selling expenses, General
and administrative expense, depreciation &
Revenues (or Sales) – Expenses = Profits amortization expense, Interest expense, and
Income tax expense
3. Net Income
– Difference between Revenue and all expenses
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Evaluating a Firm’s EPS and Connecting the Income Statement
Dividends (for Boswell, Table 3.1) and the Balance Sheet
• Earnings per share = $204.75m ÷ 90m • What can the firm do with the net income?:
= $2.28 per share Pay dividends to shareholders, and/or
Reinvest in the firm
• Dividends per share = $45m ÷ 90m
= $0.50 per share – Boswell, Inc. earned net income of $204.75
million, of which $45 million was distributed in
dividends and $159.75 million was retained and
reinvested in the firm.
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From H.J. Boswell Inc.’s income statement 1. The gross profit margin (GPM)
(Table 3-1) we observe that firm has been = gross profits ÷ sales
profitable. We can identify three different = $675 million ÷ $2,700 million
measures of profit or income: = 25%
1. The gross Profit margin is 25% ($675 million) – GPM indicates the firm’s “mark-up” on its cost of
2. The operating profit margin is only 14.2% ($382.5 goods sold per dollar of sales. The markup
million)
percentage equals gross profit divided by cost of
3. The net profit margin is only 7.6% ($204.75 million)
goods sold (=$675m ÷ $2.025m = 33.3%)
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– The operating profit margin is equal to the ratio – Net profit margin indicates the percentage of
of net operating income or EBIT divided by revenues left over after all expenses (including
firm’s sales. interest and taxes) have been considered.
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Interpreting Firm Profitability using
GAAP and Earnings Management
the Income Statement (cont.)
By monitoring any changes in these margins • While the firms must adhere to GAAP, there
and comparing these margins to those of is considerable room for managers to
similar businesses, we can dissect and identify actively influence the firm’s reported
a firm’s performance and identify expenses earnings.
that are out of line.
• Managers have an incentive to tamper with
earnings as their pay depends upon it and
because investors pay close attention to
earnings announcements.
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Equals Gross
Revenues – Expenses = Net Income profit
Less: Operating expenses
Equals: net
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Step 2: Decide on a Solution
Step 3: Solve
Strategy
the income statement will entail substituting Less: Cost of goods sold
= $8,347,500,000
the appropriate balances into the template Equals: profit
=$6,201,500,000
of step 1. Less: Operating/other expenses
=$3,841,000,000
Equals: net
Operating income
=$2,370,500,000
Less: Interest expense
=$74,000,000
Equals: earnings
Before taxes
=$2,291,500,000
Less: Income taxes (40%)
=$916,600,000
Equals:
NET INCOME
=$1,374,900,000
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Corporate Taxes
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Computing Taxable Income Marginal and Average Tax Rates
The table reveals the following: • Marginal tax rate is the tax rate that the
company will pay on its next dollar of
– Tax rates range from 15% to 39% taxable income.
– Tax rates are progressive i.e. corporations with • Average tax rate is total taxes paid
higher profits tend to pay more taxes. divided by the taxable income.
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Marginal and Average Tax Rates Marginal and Average Tax Rates
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The dividend received by corporate Example What will be the taxable income if
stockholders are partially exempt from firm A receives $100,000 in dividends from
taxation. The rationale is to avoid double firm B.
taxation at the corporate level. The
percentage of exempt taxes is based on the
degree of ownership of the firm.
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The Balance Sheet
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• Total liabilities represent the total amount • In general, GAAP requires that the firm
of money the firm owes its creditors report assets using the historical costs.
• Total shareholders’ equity refers to the
difference in the value of the firm’s total • Cash and assets held for sale (such as
assets and the firm’s total liabilities. marketable securities) are an exception to
• Total assets, sum of total shareholders’ the rule. These assets are reported using
equity and total liabilities, represents the the lower of their cost or current market
resources owned by the firm. value.
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Table 3.2 H. J. Boswell, Inc. (cont.) Figure 3.1 The Balance Sheet
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The balance sheet includes the following main • Current assets consists of firm’s cash plus
components: other assets the firm expects to convert to
1.Assets – It includes current assets and fixed cash within 12 months or less, such as
assets. receivables and inventory.
2.Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity – It
indicates how the firm finances its assets. It • Fixed assets are assets that the firm does
includes current liabilities, long-term liabilities, not expect to sell within one year. For
and owner’s equity. example, plant and equipment, land.
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• Current liabilities represent the amount • The stockholder’s equity includes the
that the firm owes to creditors that must be following: Par value of common stock + Paid
repaid within a period of 12 months or less in Capital + Retained Earnings.
such as accounts payable, notes payable.
• We can also express stockholders’ equity as
• Long-term liabilities refer to debt with follows:
maturities longer than a year such as bank Shareholders' equity = Total Assets – Total Liabilities
loans, bonds.
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Firm Liquidity and Net Working Firm Liquidity and Net Working
Capital Capital (cont.)
Liquidity generally refers to the firm’s ability • If a firm’s net working capital is significantly
to covert its current assets into cash so that it positive, it is in a good position to pay its
can pay its current liabilities on time. We can debts on time and is consequently very
thus measure a firm’s liquidity by computing liquid.
its net working capital (equal to current
assets less current liabilities). • Lenders consider the net working capital as
an important indicator of firm’s ability to
repay its loans.
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Step 3: Solve Step 4: Analyze
Cash 885,000,000 Current 1,128,000,000 We can make the following observations from
Inventories liabilities
Other current 1,615,000,000 Gap’s Balance sheet:
assets 809,000,000
– The total assets of $6,422,000,000 is financed
Total current 3,309,000,000 Total current 1,128,000,000
assets liabilities
by a combination of current liabilities, long-term
Net Property, 2,523,000,000 Long-term 2,539,000,000
liabilities and owner’s equity. Owner’s equity
Plant and liabilities accounts for $2,755,000,000 of the total.
equipment
– The firm has a healthy net working capital of
Other long-term 590,000,000 Common Equity 2,755,000,000
$2,181,000,000.
assets
Total Assets $6,422,000,00 Total Liabilities $6,422,000,00
0 and Equity 0
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The right-hand side of the balance sheet • Payment: Payment for debt holders is
reveals the following two sources of money generally fixed (in the form of interest);
used to finance the purchase of the firm’s Payment for equity holders (dividends) is
assets listed on the left-hand side of the not fixed nor guaranteed.
balance sheet. • Seniority: Debt holders are paid before
– Borrowings (debt financing) equity holders in the event of bankruptcy.
– firms owners (equity financing) • Maturity: Debt matures after a fixed period
while equity securities do not mature.
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The Cash Flow Statement Sources and Uses of Cash
The Cash Flow Statement is used by firms • A source of cash is any activity that brings
to explain changes in their cash balances over cash into the firm. For example, sale of
a period of time by identifying all of the equipment.
sources and uses of cash for the period
spanned by the statement. • A use of cash is any activity that causes
cash to leave the firm. For example,
payment of taxes.
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Table 3-3 H. J.
Cash Flow Analysis (cont.)
Boswell, Inc.,
Balance Sheets
and Balance Why did the cash balance decline by $4.50m?.
Sheet Changes See table 3.1 and table below:
Decrease in short-term
notes = $9
Total Sources of cash = Total Uses of cash =
$216.00 $220.50
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Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement (cont.)
The basic format for a cash flow statement is • Operating activities represent the company’s
as follows: core business, including sales and expenses.
Beginning Cash Balance
Plus: Cash Flow from Operating • Investing activities include the cash flows
Activities that arise out of the purchase and sale of
Plus: Cash Flow from Investing long-term assets such as plant and
Activities equipment.
Plus: Cash Flow from Financing
Activities
Equals: Ending Cash Balance
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The statement can be used to answer a Since reported earnings can sometimes be
number of important questions such as: misleading, we can combine information from
– How much cash did the firm generate from its the firm’s income statement and the
operations? statement of cash flows to evaluate the
– How much did the firm invest in plant and quality of firm’s reported earnings.
equipment?
– Did the firm raise additional funds, and if so, how
much and from what sources?
– Is the firm able to generate positive cash flows?
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Quality of Earnings: Evaluating Cash Quality of Earnings: Evaluating Cash
Flow from Operations (cont.) Flow from Operations (cont.)
• A ratio of 1.00 indicates very high quality of • The quality of earnings ratio for Boswell for
earnings and that the firm’s operating cash 2013 = $173.25m ÷ $ 204.75m = 84.6%
flows and net income are in sync with each
other. • Boswell’s ratio was only 84.6% due to more
credit sales than it collected, increase in
• A low ratio indicates firm’s reliance on non- inventories, non-cash depreciation expense,
operating sources of cash to generate net and increased reliance on accounts payable.
income that may not be sustainable.
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This ratio calculates the extent to which • For Boswell, the capital acquisition ratio is:
the firm’s operating cash flows can pay for = $157.75m ÷ $159.5m = 98.9%
capital expenditures. Higher ratio will
mean less dependence on capital markets • Boswell was, on average, able to finance
for financing. 98.9% of its new expenditures out of the
firm’s current-year operations.
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Step 2: Decide on a Solution
Step 3: Solve
Strategy
We can compare the cash flow from operating Cash flow from operating activities
activities and cash flow from investing EXCO had a positive cash flow from operating
activities by retrieving the cash flow activities of $514.78 million in 2012. In 2011,
statement from the cash flow from operating activities was much
lower at $428.54 million. The primary
http://finance.google.com/finance
contributors to the operating cash flows were
adjustments to net income.
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Cash flow from investing activities: • The cash flow statement for 2012 depicts a
Cash flow from investing activities were profitable firm with positive cash flow from
($426.09) million in 2012. EXCO had invested operations that have been steadily
heavily in capital expenditures with a total increasing since 2010. In 2010, cash flow
expense of $536.92 million.
from operations were only $339.92 million.
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Key Terms (cont.) Key Terms (cont.)
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Learning Objectives Learning Objectives (cont.)
1. Explain what we can learn by analyzing a 4. Select an appropriate benchmark for use in
firm’s financial statements. performing a financial ratio analysis.
2. Use common size financial statements as a 5. Describe the limitations of financial ratio
tool of financial analysis. analysis.
3. Calculate and use a comprehensive set of
financial ratios to evaluate a company’s
performance.
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• An internal financial analysis might be done: • External financial analysis is done by:
– To evaluate the performance of employees – Banks and other lenders
– To compare the performance of different – Suppliers
divisions – Credit-rating agencies
– To prepare financial projections – Professional analysts
– To evaluate the firm’s financial performance in – Individual investors
light of its competitors’ performance
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Common Size Statements:
Standardizing Financial Information
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Table 4.2 Observations
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Liquidity Ratios
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Liquidity Ratios (cont.) Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio
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• What is the current ratio for 2012 for • Acid-Test (Quick) Ratio excludes the
Boswell? inventory from current assets as inventory
may not be very liquid.
Current Ratio = $477 ÷ 292.5 = 1.63
times
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• What is the quick ratio for Boswell for 2012? We can also measure the liquidity of the firm
by examining the liquidity of accounts
• Quick Ratio receivable and inventories to see how long
it takes the firm to convert its accounts
= ($477-$229.50) ÷ ($292.50) = 0.84 times
receivables and inventories into cash.
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Liquidity Ratios: Accounts Liquidity Ratios: Accounts
Receivable Receivable (cont.)
Average Collection Period measures the • What will be the average collection period
number of days it takes the firm to collects its for Boswell, Inc. for 2012 if we assume that
receivables. the annual credit sales were $2,500 million?
• Daily Credit Sales
= $2,500 ÷ 365 days = $6.85 million
• Average Collection Period
= $139.5m ÷ $6.85m = 20.37 days
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Liquidity Ratios:
Can a Firm Have Too Much Liquidity?
Days’ Sales in Inventory
• The firm, on average, holds it inventory for • However, an excessive investments in liquid
about 42 days. assets can prove to be costly as liquid
assets (such as cash) generate minimal
return.
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Step 4: Analyze (cont.)
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Capital structure refers to the way a firm Debt ratio measures the proportion of the
finances its assets. Capital structure ratios firm’s assets that are financed by borrowing
address the important question: How has the or debt financing.
firm financed the purchase of its assets?
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• What is the debt ratio for H.J. Boswell, Inc. • Times Interest Earned Ratio measures
for 2012? the ability of the firm to service its debt or
repay the interest on debt.
• Debt Ratio
= $1,012.50 million ÷ $1,764 million = 57.40%
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Capital Structure Ratios (cont.) Capital Structure Ratios (cont.)
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Step 3: Solve Step 4: Analyze
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• Total Asset Turnover Ratio represents What will be the total asset turnover ratio for
the amount of sales generated per dollar Boswell, Inc. for 2012 if we assume total sales
invested in firm’s assets. to be $2,500 million?
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Asset Management Efficiency Ratios Asset Management Efficiency Ratios
(cont.) (cont.)
• Fixed asset turnover ratio measures What will be the fixed asset turnover ratio for
firm’s efficiency in utilizing its fixed assets Boswell for 2012 if we assume sales of $2,500
(such as property, plant and equipment). million for 2012?
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Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning
Reasonable Profit Margins? Reasonable Profit Margins? (cont.)
Gross profit margin shows how well the What will be the gross profit margin ratio for
firm’s management controls its expenses to 2012 for Boswell if we assume sales of $2,500
generate profits. million and gross profit of $650 million?
•Gross Profit Margin
= $650 million ÷ $2,500 million = 26%
– The firm spent $0.74 for cost of goods sold and
thus $0.26 out of each dollar of sales went
towards gross profits.
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Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning
Reasonable Profit Margins? (cont.) Reasonable Profit Margins? (cont.)
Operating Profit Margin measures how What will be the operating profit margin ratio
much profit is generated from each dollar of for Boswell for 2012 if we assume sales of
sales after accounting for both costs of goods $2,500 million and net operating income of
sold and operating expenses. It also indicates $350 million?
how well the firm is managing its income
statement. •Operating Profit Margin
= $350 million ÷ $2,500 million = 14%
– The firm generates $0.14 in operating profit for
each dollar of sales.
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Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning Cost Control: Is the Firm Earning
Reasonable Profit Margins? (cont.) Reasonable Profit Margins? (cont.)
Net Profit Margin measures how much What will be the net profit margin ratio for
income is generated from each dollar of sales 2012 if we assume sales of $2,500 million and
after adjusting for all expenses (including net income of $217.75 million?
income taxes).
•Net Profit Margin
= $217.75 million ÷ $2,500 million = 8.71%
– The firm generated $0.087 for each dollar of
sales after all expenses were accounted for.
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Return on Invested Capital Profitability Ratios (cont.)
Operating Return on Assets ratio is the What will be the operating return on assets
summary measure of operating profitability. It ratio for Boswell for 2012 if we assume EBIT
takes into account the management’s success or net operating income of $350 million for
in controlling expenses and its efficient use of 2012?
assets.
•Operating Return on Assets
= $350 million ÷$1,764 million = 19.84%
– The firm generated $0.1984 of operating profits
for every $1 of its invested assets.
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• Firm’s OROA (operating return on assets) is 1. Reduce costs - The firm must investigate
better than its peers. the cost of goods sold and operating
expenses to see if there are opportunities
• Firm’s OPM (operating profit margin) is to reduce costs.
lower than its peers.
2. Reduce inventories – The firm must
• Firm’s TATO (total asset turnover ratio) is investigate if it can reduce the size of its
higher than that of its peers. inventories.
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Step 1: Picture the Problem
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• An improvement in total asset turnover ratio Return on Equity (ROE) ratio measures the
has a favorable impact on Home Depot’s accounting return on the common
operating return on assets (OROA). stockholders’ investment.
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Is the Firm Providing a Reasonable Return Using the DuPont Method for
on the Owner’s Investment (cont.) Decomposing the ROE ratio
What will be the ROE ratio for Boswell for 2012 • DuPont method analyzes the firm’s ROE
if we assume net income of $217.75 million? by decomposing it into three parts.
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Using the DuPont Method for Using the DuPont Method for
Decomposing the ROE ratio (cont.) Decomposing the ROE ratio (cont.)
ROE = Profitability × Efficiency × Equity The following table shows why Boswell’s
Multiplier return on equity was higher than its peers.
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Market Value Ratios Price-Earnings Ratio
Market value ratios address the question, Price-Earnings (PE) Ratio indicates how
how are the firm’s shares valued in the stock much investors are currently willing to pay for
market? $1 of reported earnings.
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What will be the PE ratio for 2012 for Boswell, • Earnings per share
Inc. if we assume the firm’s stock was selling = $217.75 million ÷ 90 million = $2.42
for $22 per share at a time when the firm
reported a net income of $217.75 million, and • PE ratio = $22 ÷ $2.42 = 9.09
the total number of common shares
outstanding are 90 million?
• The investors were willing to pay $9.09 for
every dollar of earnings per share that the
firm generated.
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Market-to-Book Ratio measures the What will be the market-to-book ratio for
relationship between the market value and 2012 for Boswell if the market price of the
the accumulated investment in the firm’s stock is $22 and the firm has 90 million
equity. shares outstanding?
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Market Value Ratios (cont.)
Price-to-earnings (PE) ratio depends on We need to determine the price per share that
earnings per share and price per share, will make PE ratio of Dell (4.83) equal to the
pictured as follows: PE ratio of Apple (13.22).
Price per share standardized by
•PE ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per
share
EPS =
Net income ÷ number ==> 13.22 = ? ÷ 2.01
Of shares outstanding
PE Ratio = •Price per share = 13.22 × 2.01 = $26.57
Price per share ÷
Earnings per share
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Step 4: Analyze
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Selecting a Performance Benchmark Trend Analysis
• There are two types of benchmarks that are • Comparing a firm’s recent financial ratios
commonly used: with the past financial ratios provides insight
– Trend Analysis – compares a firm’s financial into whether the firm is improving or
statements over time (time-series comparisons). deteriorating over time. This type of
– Peer Group Comparisons – compares the subject financial analysis is referred to as trend
firm’s financial statements with “peer” firms. analysis.
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The Limitations of Ratio Analysis
The Limitations of Ratio Analysis
(cont.)
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