ABSTRACT
In recent times and across the globe, the concept of climate has gained much relevance
because of its dynamic and complex nature and the significant influence it has on various
aspects of the environment, including the increasing threat of global climate change. This
study focuses on the geo-spatial analysis of rainfall variationand it’s implication on water
resources in Ijumu based on the variations in rainfall and temperature within the period 2002-
2022. Time Series Analysis was used to determine the trend of rainfall and temperature
within the period 2002-2022. Linear Regression was used to estimate the value of variable Y
(total rainfall or average minimum temperature), corresponding to a given value of variable X
(time), while GIS analysis software was used to determine the temporal trend of rainfall
indices within the study period. Furthermore, the study focused on the spatial variations of
total rainfall and average minimum temperature in the study area. The result revealed that
there is downward trend of 0.814 mm per year in the annual mean rainfall and also there is an
upward trend of 0.029 per year in average annual minimum temperature and total annual
maximum temperature has an upward trend of 0.01 mm per year. Thus, the rainfall is
decreasing and temperature tends to increase. The study indicated that decreasing rainfall
trends were detected in monthly rainfall time series. Remarkable statistically significant
decreasing rainfall trends were observed in 2017 signifies late onset and early cessationof
rainfall in Ijumu the study area. These imply that there was appreciable reduction in water
resources availability within Ijumu for the past 20 years. If this reduction persists, then the
severity and duration of droughts can be expected to be more frequent in the future than in the
past. Following the findings made in the study between 2002 and 2022, it is recommended
that More meteorological stations should be established in the region in other to closely
monitor the changing pattern and trend of rainfall fluctuation. There is need to embark on
robust education and enlightenment programs so as to increase the awareness of the populace
on the effect of declining rainfall trend on the agricultural and water resources sectors of the
region. Farmers should be encouraged to focus on irrigation and drought tolerant crops while
government continues to scale up support to the agricultural sector. Early warning systems
about extreme temperature events should be put in place. This step will help reduce the cost
of destruction caused by this extreme weather events.
