I believe the NBA is the most profitable sport to bet on and I want to teach you

guys exactly what you should be doing to make a bunch of money this 2024 2025 NBA
season when you think about it from a volume perspective it kind of just makes
sense an 82 regular game season for the NBA compared to the NFL that's only 17
games so more games equals more profitable betting opportunities for Sharp Sports
bets like me and now you and because there is so many games and every single day
there's a lot more for these Sports books to keep up with when setting their lines
and odds so that means there's a bigger chance for them to mess up or be slow when
adjusting to certain news lineups injuries Etc and that leads me to talk about the
number one reason why the NBA is the best sport to bet on when you're trying to
make money and that's because lineups and injury news happen every single day and
sometimes they are so Random the sports books can't keep up well at least certain
Sports books fall behind and you are able to take advantage of these lines before
they adjust to the news um I'll give you guys an example right now let's say Jason
Tatum is ruled out he's randomly taking a rest day but this happens 30 minutes
before tip off right then the sports books have to scramble to adjust their lines
because Jason Tatum being out in the NBA is huge not only for different player
props but also the spread the probability for them to win um it really means a lot
when a star player is ruled out in the NBA even more so than the NFL but think
about it Jason tatums ruled out Jaylen Brown's points line now goes from 212 to
maybe 242 it has to be raised because he's going to be taking more shots and having
more opportunities on offense uh than if Jason Tatum was still in the game and then
same thing for Rebound lines right uh porzingis rebound line now from maybe 7 and
A2 gets bumped up to 8 and A2 or maybe 9 and A2 it really affects things on not
only the Celtics side but even the player props for whatever team they're facing
this happens literally all the time in the NBA and you can take advantage of it now
unlike most sports the NBA does kind of have a prime time for finding the best
value and that comes maybe an hour or two hours just before the tip offs of the
very first games of the night because that's when injury news in lineup news gets
announced before these games get tipped off so if a typical starter on a team is
ruled out that affects the game a ton especially the player props for the remaining
players in the starting lineup and that player that was now moved to the bench or
just not playing anymore Sports books are really really good about setting lines
and odds and that's why they're profitable for a reason it's in their best interest
to set these lines and odds as accurately as possible so that way they can make
money off their Sports betters or customers right however when these random lineup
changes happen they have to scramble to adjust their lines via their models and
algorithms but that leads to profitable betting opportunities for us Sports bets on
books that are slow in books that are slow typically like prize picks Underdog some
of these DFS apps check out this example right here about 30 minutes before tip off
typical starter Grayson Allen was ruled not starting he was going to be coming off
the bench which I know Grayson Allen isn't a star player but that affects a lot of
things when he's going to be playing less minutes and not starting for the Suns you
can see that the sports books adjusted to this news uh right here you see Grayson
Allen was listed at 175 typically as a starter for his Points Plus rebounds however
once this news was announced the sports books all adjusted and moved this line down
to 13 and a half with juice favoring his under prize picks was slow to adjust and
they still had him up at 17 1 12 points plus rebounds so there was a huge Edge
taking the under of 172 on prize picks getting a 75% chance to hit this prop on
prize picks but as you can see here it wasn't just his Points Plus rebound line it
was his P points rebounds and assists was set to 195 originally when he was claimed
to be a starter and then whenever he was ruled coming off the bench it was bumped
down to 15 1 12 across the sportsbooks his fantasy score his actual points line and
even his Points Plus assist line insan say the value you could get on prize picks
when this happened because they were so slow to adjust so this right here is
actually Daily Grind fantasy and it's the website that I use to compare Sports
books lines and odds back to prize picks Underdog and all those other DFS apps to
find the best possible value like this every single day I'll leave a link down
below to Daily Grind fantasy and if you use code Dustin dgf you will get 25% off
your very first and Daily Grind fantasy doesn't just have NBA it shows the best
value for all of your major sports and even line Compares Esports as well guys you
can implement the same strategies I'm talking about in NBA today throughout this
video in all of these Sports and Esports as well you can find a bunch of value
throughout the NBA without even lineup or injury news but I want to show you guys
one more example here you can see that Jared Allen was ruled out for the Cavs and
that affected not only the Cavs but also the the Magic's uh player props because
Jared Allen being a big man down low that could affect rebounds and he's a scorer
as well but let's look at this we see Pao bonero was listed at 34 on prize picks
but the rest of the sports books had bumped this up to 342 with juice on the over
or even up to 35 A2 on multiple Sports books Donovan Mitchell and Max stru rebounds
lines have now bumped up as well across the the major sports books you can see
Bono's rebounds an assist uh went from 12 to 12 1 12 across the sports books and
Wendell Carter as well as he is a big man that would be down low with Jared Allen
so it just makes sense why these uh player props would adjust when somebody as big
to the game as Jared Allen would be ruled out um just before tip off I took that
value and put it into a five leg Flex on prize pick and cashed out for 10x now I'm
not saying this is going to happen every single time you are not guaranteed to win
just because you got good value but if you consistently get good value and beat the
closing lines that the sports books end with you are going to be a profitable
better in the NBA this season now majority of my examples and strategy are focused
around prize picks in those other DFS apps but you can do this as straight betting
as well you can see Andrew nard under 2 and 1 half rebounds was listed at minus 105
odds on fliff and there is huge value there but why when we look at Daily Grind
fantasy uh comparing flip back to the major Sportsbook Market we can see that the
rest of the market was close to -40 - 139 to be exact but let's say - 140 when
fliff has this listed atus 105 clearly fliff is off from what the rest of the
market is establishing uh these odds at so basically what what's going on here is
that flip is viewing this play as a less chance to hit than what the rest of the
market is are you going to trust Flip or the other three Sports books that are
agreeing this should be aroundus 140 so they are giving this a 54.5 6% chance to
hit so you're getting a 3% Edge because fliff is viewing it more so as like a 51%
chance to hit so that's why they have it priced at - 105 compared to the -40 so
that's the goal find whatever app or Sportsbook is off from the rest of the market
and play it there now let's switch gears back to prize picks and focus on what you
should be looking for on a normal prop a normal prop posted the prize piix none of
the injury news or lineup news props that are slow to adjust this Luca play was
listed at 3 and 1/2 on priz picks and 3 and 1/2 on the sports books so why are we
recommending the over on priz picks that's because look at the juice that the
sports books are giving this play right average odds of minus 163 to go over 3 and
1 half three-pointers made right giving it a 58% chance to hit now how do we find
that 58% chance to hit Daily Grind fantasy does this on the back end but they are
removing the juice from the sports books what you are paying the sports books just
for placing that bet right what they are making off you from just placing that bet
on the sports book we can find the true fair odds percentage that these Sports
books are giving this play to hit and that's about 58% also known as odds percent
to hit in same thing here with this Jaylen Brown play listed at 5 and a half
rebounds on prize picks same on the sports books but the sports books the data
points are all saying this is heavily favored to go over a 5 and a half rebounds
right trust the market trust the data and the sports books that have multi-million
dollar algorithms and models setting these lines and odds for a reason right and
then play it at the best possible odds you can find because that's how you're going
to be profitable long term get it atus 119 in a five or six man Flex on prize picks
which it should never be up on the prize picks board when it's that heavily favored
uh on the sports books because longterm you have an edge against prize pick and
prize pick doesn't like that that's why they bump and remove props so fast because
they know that there's an edge against them on a play like this but how do you know
you have an edge against prize pick let me explain five and six-man flexes are the
most profitable slip types and the easiest to be profitable long term when playing
prize picks because you need to be right on your individual legs playing five and
six man flexes at 54.2 plus% of the time right so we're taking those plays that the
sports books these multi-million dollar companies are giving 50 6 57% chance to hit
right in playing
them in five and six man flexes long term that's insane when you need to be right
just 54% of the time so they're saying that over and over and over again if you
play those props out a thousand times they going to hit 57% of the time that's
insane when you need to be right just 54.2% of the time and if you're playing two
and three man slips on prize picks you need to stop immediately cuz you're making
it harder on yourself you need to be right on your individual legs or have a hit
rate of above 58.5% of the time in three man slips and then 57.7% of the time in
those Twan Powers guys it's almost a 4% difference in hit rate that you have to
have when playing those slip types compared to five and six man flexes so yes the
ultimate goal is to find five or six plays that have insane value on prize picks
When comparing to the rest of the market you can see you are getting a full point
plus rebound on valent tunes' lines on prize picks lower than what the rest of the
market has clearly prize picks is off and there is value taking the over of 20 A2
on prize picks because you're going to trust the market as I mentioned trust the
five sports books that are telling you this should be at 212 compared to just prize
picks setting this line at 20 A2 and if you do that and you constantly get closing
line value like this where you're beating the market you are going to be profitable
playing prize picks playing the NBA this year now you're not going to win every
single slip those are five and six leg parlay but if you consistently get that
little bit of an edge 1 to 3% Edge over and over again it's going to add up think
about it like flipping a weighted coin if I had a coin that I knew was going to
land on heads 52% of the time right and I was flipping for heads you were flipping
for tails and you didn't know about it over the long term as we flip that coin
right that 2% Edge I'm getting on you is going to add up sure you're going to go on
runs where you have 10 taals in a row but if we do this over a thousand times that
2% Edge is going to keep showing up and I am going to end up flipping heads more
times than you are tails in the long term this strategy known as line comparing is
something that plenty of people are taking advantage of in seeing long-term
profitable success by doing so right but they're not quitting after a stretch where
you're losing 18 slips in a row right because if you lose 18 six leg slips in a row
that are 25x payouts and then you hit your very next one you are extremely
profitable over that stretch of slips just based off hitting one slip right but you
can see if you just stick to it which these people are that are seeing that success
right you are going to see a profitable NBA season but it gets even easier to
implement this strategy if manually line comparing using an odd screen like Daily
Grind fantasies optimizers as you guys can see here is not your style right you
don't want to have to manually look at all this and decipher what's good value
what's not they have an AI slip generator that AI uses line comparing Technologies
to build Out full slips that have value for you right you can see this slip right
here is spit out by the AI slip generator and all you simply do is reveal the slip
and then play it on Underdog right same thing for these other DFS apps like better
or even prize picks and on prize picks you can play slips with one click of a
button that will load up your prize pick slip over here on prize picks you just
enter in the amount you would want to play and you know that you are getting long-
term profitable value by using AI that can quickly way faster than you and I line
compare the sports books back to whatever app and build out those slips all you
have to do is tail and you can see here since the AI slip generator launched at
Daily Grind fantasy it is up over 2,000 units since 818 of 2023 actually insane
that we are now having AI do sports betting for us so if that's something you're
interested in I'll leave a link down below for the AI slip generator as well so yes
if you want to actually make money betting the NBA this season you need to remove
your emotions from your sports betting and start finding plays that have a real
Edge against the sports books via line comparing stop betting Jason Tatum over his
points line because he's your favorite player or the Celtics are your favorite team
I promise trust the sports books trust the data everything that you think you know
or can look up like the last five game logs last 10 game logs uh that Jason Tatum's
gone over up seven of the last 10 games that means nothing right the sports books
already know everything you think you know and more and and Implement that into
setting their own lines and odds based off their algorithms and multi-million
dollar models so trust the market trust the sports books get rid of everything that
you think you know all that hard stuff and you will be profitable betting the NBA
this season that's going to be it hope hopefully you guys enjoyed this video or you
learned something and if you did make sure you guys drop a like And subscribe if
you're not subscribed already we Post sports betting content like this every single
week

if you're new to prize picks this is going to be the only video you need to watch
to get caught up on exactly what prize pick is how to sign up and how you can play
priz picks and win real money if you're watching this video you probably know at
least a little bit about prize picks but prize pick is a daily fantasy sports app
that sets projections for player props across uh many different sports in video
games and all you have to do is choose more or less than that player set projection
and either win or lose we'll touch more on player projections and how to pick more
or less later in this video but first let's start with the sign up page and here we
are on the signup page as you guys can see here if you have an account already you
could just simply sign into prize picks and then hit sign in and you will be into
the uh website or the app right because it is on mobile as well but if you are new
to prize pick and you would like to sign up you click sign up enter in your email
if there's a promo code that you would like to use feel free you can use code dgf
um if you would like to sign up for prize picks uh and you can get a deposit match
up to $100 if you use code dgf now if you go ahead and hit continue then it will go
ahead and start helping you create your account once you create your account then
you are ready to go ahead and get into prize pick the app or the website okay so
now that you've signed up for prize picks and you are now logged in you can see the
full board that has all the sports they offer including all of the different props
they offer for these players now you also have a couple different options up top
you have board lineup promotions and then on the right side you can invite friends
if you want to go ahead and share your link you can get a little bit of a a $25
credit for prize picks if you uh refer a friend to then sign up for prize picks now
you can see here your balance if you have a balance yet but you don't that's
because you need a deposit and to deposit we're going to go ahead and click this
plus button here and once you hit that button it's going to go ahead and bring you
to the deposit page I am going to block out my payment methods that way you guys do
not try and steal my account information however you guys can see here you can add
other payments and if you click this credit card or debit card you would be able to
go ahead and enter in your card information and then deposit obviously I had told
you earlier if you use code dgf you will get another $100 on top of your $100
deposit because it will match your deposit up to $100 for your very first one and I
might as well mention they do actually accept Paypal as well where you can sign
into your PayPal account and still deposit money so now you've deposited and you're
back on the home page P where you can see the board and all but on the right side
this little button here that has a drop down if you click this it will pull up
another drop down that has more options for you you can check out your transactions
so you can go ahead and see that you've deposited you can see your tax information
uh the terms and you can request a withdrawal after you've won big here on prize
picks uh you can even contact Live support or join their Discord now let's get into
the fun stuff we can talk about how prize picks actually works how to choose more
or less what you should be looking for when choosing more or less L on prize picks
so that way you can actually win money playing this app and of course we'll show
you how to view current open lineups review past lineups and even show you how to
find promotions that prize picks is offering and now we're back over to the main
page and as you guys can see here all the sports up top as I mentioned before but
it's NFL season so why wouldn't we just look at these NFL plays uh if you're seeing
this video right now you might actually have a free Square for Caleb Williams for
next week against Houston you guys can choose the over of 0.5 yard for Caleb
Williams and he is automatically going to win right cuz it's a free Square they are
just giving you a layup here that way you can go ahead and pair it or put it into a
slip with other plays on prize picks so now that you've already clicked the more on
your free Square you need to build out a full slip in order to enter this you can
either pair this with somebody like Brock pie and just do a Twan entry or you can
go for the Gusto and build a six pick entry and we'll get into more of which slip
type is the best to play on prize picks in just a little bit but let's talk about
what you can enter on prize picks and what you can't so you need to enter in at
least two player props on prize picks to enter a slip it does not let you select
just one player prop and and hit enter it will not enter a slip that way however if
we did two players from the same team it's not going to let us enter a slip the
players have to be from separate teams if you are going to do a Twan entry so for
Caleb Williams we could do anybody that is not on the Chicago Bears uh on the same
team as Caleb Williams so we could do Brock pie over pass yards and this would be
an enterable slip however let's talk about the slip types for a two-p pick entry
you are going to get a 3X payout so if you were going to go ahead and put this in
for $10 your payout would be $30 which would be a profit of $20 if you were to hit
so two mans always have to be a power play however after that there becomes two
different slip types you can place on prize picks a power play and a flex play Let
Me Explain a power play simply means you have to be correct on every single player
prop that you chose in that entry for instance we talked about a two-p pick power
right if we go two of two we win 3x if we go one of two we win nothing so that $10
would turn to $30 if we did go two of two and then for a three pick Power Play If
you go three of three you win 5x turning $10 into $50 and for a four pick power
play you have to go four of four and you would win 10x turning $10 into $100 but if
you go three of four you win nothing so a power play means you cannot miss any
plays if you want to be paid out however for anything outside of a two-p pick entry
so that means three picks four picks five picks and six picks you can actually Flex
these slip types so if you choose a three man and flex play and you go three of
three your pay out's not going to be as much as if you power played it but you
would still win 2.25x and you could miss one if you did miss one and you go two of
three you would win 1.25x however if you went one of three you would win nothing so
you can see the payouts here for a $10 play and then moving forward for a four pick
flex play you can see here that a 4 of four would pay 5x so less than that 10x if
you did a power play but you still have some insurance being that it's a flex play
three of four would win you 1.5x you can see the $10 uh examples here and then a
five and six man uh Flex plays those are going to be the best Slip Types on prize
pick fre you to play if you want to make money in beef profitable playing prize
picks let's explain them so for a five pick flex play you can see here five of five
is going to win you 10x if you miss just one you are going to win 2X so you will
double your money and then if you go three of five you will win 4X your money back
right so you're not going to be profitting going 305 but you will win some money
back which is huge in the long term you can see the examples here for a $10 wager
now for a six pick Flex this is going to be 25x if you go six of six so a huge a
huge win if you go six of six five of six so missing just one is going to win you
2X and then going four of six you're going to get that 4X back uh you know just
getting some money back on your entry so as you can see here on prize picks this
six pick entry that I just randomly put in is going to be a 25x payout if you go
six of six in the next clip I'm going to be explaining to you guys exactly why five
and six man flexes are the most profitable slip types to play on prize pick and
then after that I will show you exactly what you need to do to find the best plays
to play in those five and six mans to win money playing on prize picks hi I'm up
here in the corner now this might look really confusing but I promise it's not and
I hope to break it down really easy for you guys playing two pick entries on prize
picks to go two of two and win 3x you need to be right on your individual plays
almost 58% of the time to actually win and make money playing that slip type in the
long term right and then 59% playing three pick entries with a 5x payout right so
really hard to be right on your individual props on prize picks 58 59% of the time
to give yourself the best chance to win longterm and actually make money playing on
prize picks you want to play five and six man flexes because of the payouts down
below as you guys see where you need to be right just 54.2 plus% of the time in
order to be profitable playing on prize picks in the long term playing five and six
man flexes so almost a 4% difference playing two mans and three mans compared to
five mans and six mans on prize picks I don't know about you guys but picking
players to do well is already hard enough why make it harder on yourself where you
have to be right more perc of the time rather than just having to be right 55% of
the time and now let's actually get into how we are going to find props that are
going to hit above 54.2% of the time that way we can really make money and in order
to do that we have to find plays that have an edge against prize picks and we don't
do that by necessarily looking at this little button that shows the last five game
logs and we see that Brandon Marsh has gone over in five of the last five games
that doesn't mean that we want to click the over I know
it might seem that easy but it's really not that is a way to burn money and not
actually get an edge against prize picks in order to find plays with an edge that
actually shows you what is good value on prize picks you need to scan the rest of
the market we use a tool like Daily Grind fantasy in order to do that where you can
actually scan where the market is at being the sports books as the market or other
DFS apps where do they have these player props set to what are the odds on those
Sports books and what can we get it at on prize picks for instance this isn't
really really good value but Walker Walker buer on prize pick is set to 4 and a
half strikeouts you can see is set to 4 and a half strikeouts across the rest of
the Sportsbook and DFS app market as well but we can see that average odds across
the market is almost - 140 technically - 137 we get this same play on prize picks
at Min -119 odds in a six pick Flex so you're getting a play that the rest of the
sports books are saying this should be set closer to -40 at -119 so over the long
term playing it at- 1119 uh odds because prize pick do not change your payout for
taking the over or the under on player props you can see here it stays 3x um no
matter which way we do it um you are going to be profitable in the long term
playing a play that's- 140 Plus on the sports books at- 1119 here are some NFL
examples and they're really easy to see when you're using an app like Daily Grind
fantasy to compare these sportsbooks lines and odds directly back to prize piix you
can see here Dak Prescott was set to 2692 pass yards on prize picks but the entire
sports book Market in DFS app market is set to 2512 so prize pick is higher than
these six seven eight other data points by 18 yards it's extremely clear that prize
piix is off here you can see that priz piix is the only one that has this set to
2695 when all of these other data points that you can really trust have this set to
2512 are you going to trust that prize pick is right here or the seven or eight
data points we see that has this set lower right the market is establishing it at
2512 there is really good value on taking the under of Dak Prescott 2692 yards on
prize pick and on the back end Daily Grind fantasy computes all of this information
based on where the books have it where prize pick has it the odds you're getting it
at and is giving this a 57.8 7% chance to hit well above 54.2 plus% that we need in
order to be profitable long term and check out CD lamb off by 14 yards in a 50
7.70% chance to hit both well over that number we need you might be asking why
should I trust the sports books over maybe looking at the last five on prize picks
that's because the Sports books are setting these lines and odds for a reason
everything you think you know or that you can look up based on matchups or last
five last 10 game logs these Sports books already know and more so yes I'll be
honest having a tool like daily Grand fantasy to be able to compare the most
reputable data points in one Place rather than having to manually look up
DraftKings FanDuel B MGM having them in one place is super convenient because prize
pick moves pretty quick as well but if you're able to find a play that is off on
prize pick When comparing to those books and get that very good perc chance to hit
into your slip it's going to go a long ways in all Daily Grind fantasy is super
convenient and I suggest you guys using a tool like this if you are going to use
the strategy I'm mentioning that way you guys can hit above that 54 plus per and
actually make money longterm playing prize picks I will leave a link in the
description down below for Daily Grind fantasy but if you use code Dustin dgf you
will get 25% off your very first month of Daily Grind fantasy they actually have ai
on their website too that will build Out full slips for you to tail based off of
everything I just mentioned it's going to find all of these profitable long-term
good valued plays and put them into full slips for you to tail and on prize picks
you can even do this with one click of a button using this bet on prize pick button
that you see here you click it and it's simply going to load the slip over on prize
pick for you and you just put in the amount you want to play and hit submit and if
you do this over the long term using AI it going to be a profitable strategy
because it's doing exactly what I've already told you it's just using AI since
daily Grand fantasy launched the AI slip generator on 88 18 of 2023 so just over a
year ago of me filming this it is up 1,700 plus units using this method for
instance if you were able to tail every single slip on this tool at a $10 per slip
uh amount you would be up $1 17,370 now that's if you were able to tail every
single slip I know what you guys are thinking a guys taking over sports betting as
well yes it is and it's making things very very easy to be profitable without
having to even think just simply play the slip with one click of a button and now
the last thing you need to know about on prize picks is where can you view your
lineups after you've already placed them all you do is go here to my lineups and
I'm going to block out my personal information here um so that way you guys don't
steal my identity however you guys can see I have a play that's already hit in this
lineup here that I have placed and we can see the rest of the plays are yet to have
taken off if we scroll down we can see where I've actually lost a slip and then
from here you see another losing slip and then a slip that is still to be played
that's where you'll find plays that are either still alive or not yet settled by
prize picks and if we jump over here to our past lineups we can see the lineups
that we have either won or lost as you guys can see here a loss a loss a win you
can see here uh this was actually money back because it ended up going five of six
um here on prize pick Arena and a win there another money back slip here for going
four of six but you can see that's exactly how you access your current and past
lineups and then if you click the promotions tab you will see any type of current
promos they are running so here's a promo that they're running with a collaboration
with druski but sometimes there will be uh plays where you can get a free slip so
it's going to be like a $10 free entry um for anything that includes NFL only or
maybe a flex Friday promo right you can opt in and you will get a $5 lineup for
free if it loses they will give you your free $5 back if it wins you keep the
winnings and just like that we've covered everything you need to know on prize piix
from logging in and signing up to depositing getting your deposit match promo using
code dgf and even how to beat prize picks mathematically in the long term you guys
get out there find those five or six plays that you love and go ahead and start
beaing prize picks and playing on PR picks today but before you go and start
crushing prize picks make sure you guys leave a like on this video If it helped you
out and don't forget to hit the Subscribe Button as we post helpful content like
this about prize picks and other DFS apps every single week

how's it going guys Dustin with Daily Grind fantasy and this is my story on how I
turn sports betting into a full-time job so from the beginning really I've Loved
Sports and have played Sports basically my entire life right fast forward I turn
legal betting age I start betting on sports now did I win a lot in the beginning
hell no I didn't have near the amount of knowledge I have about sports betting
today as I did then and on top of that I didn't have the the mental strength to bet
the way that I do now back then either now I wish I had a channel like this like
like dgf that uh taught me uh how to bet and the smart ways to bet so we do
educational videos here on betting as well as give out free plays on prize picks
and more and streams and such so if you guys want to uh go ahead and subscribe to
the channel we would appreciate it drop a like on this video because that also does
help us out but let's go ahead and get into the rest of the story so now boom prize
mix becomes legal in my state and as most I was hooked I mean who doesn't love
betting on some players in a game you could care less about because your favorite
team's not playing right so you just want to make it a little more entertaining
have a fun little sweat on it so I start to see a little success and I'm having fun
with it and I decided to start a YouTube channel and give out my prize picks plays
on YouTube I was honestly inspired by guys that used to post DraftKings salary
based content on YouTube because I would watch those very often for like NFL
Sundays and such so that was a big part in me making a YouTube channel and I would
say I kind of easily started gaining traction due to the fact that price picks
content on YouTube was becoming a huge thing that on top of I felt like my plays
were doing pretty well and I felt like my personality was shining through on camera
um humbly of course so then I would literally wake up at 5am every single morning
before work research the heck out of the prize picks board using fundamental
analysis like the last five game laws last last 10 game logs um who they're playing
the weather Etc right so I would do that from literally like five to like almost
seven and then hurry up get a video out film it upload it leave my house like 7 15
to go to work then I would post plays in the bathroom at work I would post plays on
lunch I would come home from work still posting plays that I liked on the board it
was a grind so a few months in I get noticed by a company named hot streak which is
basically a DFS app much like prize picks they want me to do content for them on
their YouTube channel and so I did that for a few months before we end up parting
ways they were super awesome and it's important because that was the first time I
ever tasted money actual money that they paid me for doing content wild and one day
I come across a guy named Matt down who is actually the CEO of Daily Grind fantasy
and I see that he has a tool or a website let's say that will literally give you
the best plus EV plays available on prize picks and we ended up talking and I
became an affiliate of dgf if you're confused on what plus EV betting is just hang
on I'll get there in just one minute so from there I would still research plays I
would find what the optimizer liked research the heck out of them still for no
reason stupid me um give out some plays that were on the optimizer someplace that
weren't because I still didn't fully trust this plus EV betting thing now in this
story I have followed Matt and TJ the owners and founders of dgf for a while and I
learned what plus EV betting was even did more research on my own to be sure I was
fully aware of the strategy I was about to implement into all of my content so now
my content started to be all plays from the dgf optimizer now I started making
passive income every time somebody signed up for dgf using my affiliate link and 50
in this industry 50 commissions that is in this industry is unheard of and it
literally changed my life my wife was laid off at the end of last year and that
extra income literally helped me keep my family afloat as for lcv I'll give you one
real life example and one sports betting example for the real life example let's
say you have six car dealerships right car dealerships a b c d and e have their
Honda Civic their 2023 Honda Civic priced at twenty five thousand dollars but you
have car dealership F over here that price their Honda Civic at twenty two thousand
dollars which car dealership do you think mispriced their car so really easy right
F because if the market meaning those other five car dealerships have it priced at
twenty five thousand dollars that means that car dealership F has it priced too low
they're undervaluing the price of that car therefore you'd be stupid to buy your
car at any of those other car dealerships besides car dealership F that has it
priced at twenty two thousand dollars plus EV betting is basically playing props
based on Sportsbook odds at volume for example if Garrett Cole is -155 across major
sports books to go under six and a half strikeouts meaning sportsbooks are heavily
favoriting him to go under that six and a half strikeouts but you can get it at -19
19 implied odds on prize picks in a five pick Flex you'd be stupid to play it on
the sports books rather than play it on prize picks where you're getting the better
price and the better bang for your buck you are not smarter than Vegas guys I
promise you that there's a reason why they've been so profitable over this long
period of time right they know when people have hit the last five games the last 10
games they know the injury history they know the matchup they're going against they
they know the weather they know all this they have models that that do this for I
mean you are not smarter than them the quicker you guys realize that the the better
off you will be and and you'll be well on your way to become a profitable better on
apps like prize picks and such whenever you guys are finally taking favorable
outcomes that sportsbooks are giving you and playing them at a better number on
apps like prize picks over time Matt and TJ started interacting with my content and
uh they liked what I was doing and seeing how I was on camera and I was growing
pretty rapidly and what happens next is the best part of all almost a year after
posting my first YouTube video Matt calls me and offers me to become the community
the manager and and full-time content creator at DG fantasy and um yeah I couldn't
say yes fast enough to work for the company that has a tool that I am literally a
living testimonial for that it 100 changed my my betting strategy for the better
and made me a profitable better um easily yes right now I get to work from home
doing a job I absolutely love doing literally get to post content on YouTube for
you guys to see talk sports betting like it couldn't be more of a dream job for me
oh and I'm a profitable Sports better but yeah if you guys want to check out the
tool that I literally owe all of my betting success to it's going to be linked in
the description below the dgf optimizer it literally gives you the best plus EV
plays available on prize picks and other DFS apps I highly suggest checking it out
but yeah that's it for today's video If you guys enjoyed make sure you guys give a
like subscribe if you're not subscribed already and we'll see in the next one let's
cash if you're still here and you want to learn more about plus EB betting check
out one of these videos

you will never play prize picks the same after this the stuff I'm going to be
talking about in this video is very easy to understand and Implement for you to
become a profitable Sports better playing prize picks and it starts with rewiring
your brain your brain that probably plays 95% overs compared to unders why because
just psychologically it's more fun to root for overs we can't deny that however
unders probably more profitable and to be honest if it's more profitable I'm not
100% sure but there are certainly a lot more plays that have value and have an edge
against the books as unders than there are overs right these Sports books are
setting lines in juing lines to your psychological thought process of taking over
right they already know majority of the betters that are placing bets on their apps
are going to be betting overs so essentially they are making more money just from
you placing a bet on an over than they are unders as a profitable Sports better I
bet a ton of unders because there's value on those plays and I'll bet overs if
there's value there as well but I'm right there with you guys I much rather be
betting on an over and rooting for an over than be betting on an under it's still
not going to stop me from placing a bet on an under so yes that's step one to
rewiring your brain be more open to taking unders but there is another step to
rewiring your brain if you guys are already getting down and dirty researching
props for prize picks now that's surface level but let's talk about if you guys are
already kind of in the weeds and you're looking up the last five game logs on prize
pick or even have an app where you can see the hit rates in the last 10 20 games or
head-to-head Etc go ahead and just throw all of that out the window and stop
looking at it there's a reason prize pick shows you guys the last five game logs I
promised they want you to place bets on these think about this they wouldn't show
you guys the last five game logs or at least make it easily accessible to users if
it was going to make them lose more often hopefully that clicked a little bit for
you guys it just makes sense when you really think about it like I said rewire your
brain stick with me here now let's talk about the last five a little bit and let me
debunk it Jason Tatum over 262 points has hit five out of the last five games
however that doesn't tell you anything besides that he has gone over that point
line in five out of the last five games it doesn't tell you that Jaylen Brown was
out for four out of those five games it doesn't tell you that they were playing
some of the weaker defenses in the league it doesn't tell you that they are now
playing in this six game the upcoming game the Miami Heat who guard Jason Tatum
very well they're really good on defense that's exactly what I'm talking about with
the last five it gives you zero context what happened in those prior games and
what's to come in the upcoming matchup and you know what does take everything into
consideration the sports books when setting these lines and odds so that's exactly
what I'm going to do teach you guys about line comparing and how to find an edge by
comparing the sports books back to prize picks or any of your other favorite DFS
apps and before I show you exactly how to line compare and become profitable
playing priz pick just think about it because it makes total sense the sports books
are setting these lines and odds for a reason because they have multi-million doll
algorithms and models that take everything into consideration that you think you
know or that you can look up and more they know that Jason Tatum has hit five out
of the last five games nine out of the last 10 games they know who they are going
up against they know how they guard this position they have everything you can
think of and more these aren't just some random projections these Sports books and
prize are coming up with guys it's in their best interest to set these lines in
odds as accurately as possible so that way they could make money off of their users
and with that being said it's in our best interest to use this to our advantage use
the sportsbooks lines and odds to compare across the market and see where you can
get the best value long term so we're halfway done rewiring your brain now we are
going to wire it correctly and show you how to use the sports books to your
advantage via line comparing I will leave a link in the description down below if
you guys want to check out Daily Grind fantasy and you can use code Dustin dgf for
25% off your very first month so there's not a bunch of value right now at the time
of recording this but the sports books are constantly adding props updating their
lines adjusting to news adjusting to lineups injuries Etc that then could make for
good value on prize picks let's focus in on one line and let me show you exactly
what you're looking for for each play on prize picks when you're using Daily Grind
fantasy here's Brandon I you you can see that on prize picks he is set to 5 and 1
12 receptions the under is being recommended and you can see that the sports books
all have this set to 5 and 1/2 five or 4 and 1/2 and now let's look at the odds
that these Sports books are setting remember we are using them as data points to
find good value on prize pick so these are important you can see Pinnacle set to 5
1/2 but juicing this minus 143 odds to the under of 5 1/2 receptions so what they
are saying is they believe this has a very good chance to hit the under based on
how they are setting their odds uh DraftKings 5 half - 135 bmgm - 160 cers - 137
170 uh- 149 - 144 and then you have two books that have already bumped the
projection for the receptions down Underdog down to five and then FanDuel down to 4
1/2 however they are favoring the over of 4 and 1/2 but that just goes to show you
that they are believing that this should be set closer to 4 1/2 as opposed to 5
and2 like the rest of the books so everything seems to be trending towards the
under of 5 1/2 So based on how all of these odds are set for this player prop you
can remove the juice what you are paying just for placing this bet on the sports
book to find the true fair odds percentage that these Sports books are giving this
play to hit and if we do that which is done on the back end on Daily Grind fantasy
for you that way you can quickly get this in and be told what is good value you can
see that they are giving this a 55.2 2% chance to hit the under it's also important
to note that on prize picks in five and six man flexes you are getting these plays
at minus 119 odds because as you guys know prize pick does not adjust their payouts
for taking an over or an under on any specific player prop think about it like this
if you were placing this as a straight bet on prize fix at-19 odds a $100 wager
would profit you $84 but let's say you played this same prop at minus 165 on the
sports books at $100 wager you would only win $60 in profit costing yourself $24
long term it's very important to make sure you are getting the best possible odds
across the market every time you play a bet because over the long term as that play
plays out again and again and again at a 55% hit rate that $24 is going to add up
and really create profit the last part of your brain we need to rewire is the slip
types you are playing please do not play two and three man slips they are by far
mathematically the worst slip types to play if you actually want to make money in
profit playing prize picks please only play five and six man flexes you can see
here that you need to be right just 54.2% of the time on your individual props in
your five and six man flexes just individual plays above 54.2% of the time in order
to be profitable in the long-term playing those slip types as opposed to 58.5 and
57 .7 that's almost a 4% difference guys sports betting is already hard enough to
be right 54.2 plus% of the time no need to make it harder on yourself and play two
mans and three mans and have to be right 4% more of the time had like 58 plus per.
and yes these are five and six man parlays that we are talking about here guys they
are not easy to hit you are going to lose plenty of slips but doing this over the
long term getting in these high percent odds plays to hit the best odds you can on
prize picks When comparing to the sports books it's going to add up in compound at
volume playing these 5 and six man flexus is mathematically the best way to profit
and if you find yourself in a negative variant stretch while doing this please just
stick to the process and manage your bank roll never put more than 1% of your bank
roll on a specific play or slip on prize picks and stop chasing losses if you lose
the day baseball games don't go playing some bad value just to get a sweat for the
night baseball games this strategy is called plus EV betting so you need to stick
to finding positive expected value bets in away from those really really bad bets
that you want to place just because you want to sweat so the goal is to find five
or six props that have above a 54.2 plus% chance to hit and get them into slips
together but if doing that manually by line comparing and picking out these props
looking them up on prize picks is not for you Daily Grind fantasy actually has an
AI slip generator where AI line Compares and builds out full slips for you just to
Simply tail you can see here it is up over 1,800 plus units since launch you reveal
the slip click the bet on prize pick button and it's going to load up the slip on
prize pick all you have to do is Click enter and then you will have a full
profitable slip entered in on prize picks and you can see here it is on prize picks
I know you're probably thinking AI is taking over everything in it is but it's also
nice to have that option here in profitable sports betting where you can let AI do
the
hard work for you you it's way faster at line comparing and building out slips
than you and I so if you do want to go that option and let AI build out the slips
for you just simply tail these plays knowing that you are getting an edge on prize
picks because it is doing exactly what you could be doing manually using an odd
screen then go that route but if you like to get down and dirty choose the props
you want and line compare yourself then the optimizers at Daily Grind fantasy is
probably a better option for you but it's just nice to have multiple options and to
recap get rid of everything you thought you knew before take what I just taught you
and implement it and you will be profitable sports betting on prize pick hopefully
you guys enjoyed this video if you did make sure you guys drop a like subscribe if
you're not subscribed already and uh we'll see you in the next one

I believe the NBA is the most profitable sport to bet on and I want to teach you
guys exactly what you should be doing to make a bunch of money this 2024 2025 NBA
season when you think about it from a volume perspective it kind of just makes
sense an 82 regular game season for the NBA compared to the NFL that's only 17
games so more games equals more profitable betting opportunities for Sharp Sports
bets like me and now you and because there is so many games and every single day
there's a lot more for these Sports books to keep up with when setting their lines
and odds so that means there's a bigger chance for them to mess up or be slow when
adjusting to certain news lineups injuries Etc and that leads me to talk about the
number one reason why the NBA is the best sport to bet on when you're trying to
make money and that's because lineups and injury news happen every single day and
sometimes they are so Random the sports books can't keep up well at least certain
Sports books fall behind and you are able to take advantage of these lines before
they adjust to the news um I'll give you guys an example right now let's say Jason
Tatum is ruled out he's randomly taking a rest day but this happens 30 minutes
before tip off right then the sports books have to scramble to adjust their lines
because Jason Tatum being out in the NBA is huge not only for different player
props but also the spread the probability for them to win um it really means a lot
when a star player is ruled out in the NBA even more so than the NFL but think
about it Jason tatums ruled out Jaylen Brown's points line now goes from 212 to
maybe 242 it has to be raised because he's going to be taking more shots and having
more opportunities on offense uh than if Jason Tatum was still in the game and then
same thing for Rebound lines right uh porzingis rebound line now from maybe 7 and
A2 gets bumped up to 8 and A2 or maybe 9 and A2 it really affects things on not
only the Celtics side but even the player props for whatever team they're facing
this happens literally all the time in the NBA and you can take advantage of it now
unlike most sports the NBA does kind of have a prime time for finding the best
value and that comes maybe an hour or two hours just before the tip offs of the
very first games of the night because that's when injury news in lineup news gets
announced before these games get tipped off so if a typical starter on a team is
ruled out that affects the game a ton especially the player props for the remaining
players in the starting lineup and that player that was now moved to the bench or
just not playing anymore Sports books are really really good about setting lines
and odds and that's why they're profitable for a reason it's in their best interest
to set these lines and odds as accurately as possible so that way they can make
money off their Sports betters or customers right however when these random lineup
changes happen they have to scramble to adjust their lines via their models and
algorithms but that leads to profitable betting opportunities for us Sports bets on
books that are slow in books that are slow typically like prize picks Underdog some
of these DFS apps check out this example right here about 30 minutes before tip off
typical starter Grayson Allen was ruled not starting he was going to be coming off
the bench which I know Grayson Allen isn't a star player but that affects a lot of
things when he's going to be playing less minutes and not starting for the Suns you
can see that the sports books adjusted to this news uh right here you see Grayson
Allen was listed at 175 typically as a starter for his Points Plus rebounds however
once this news was announced the sports books all adjusted and moved this line down
to 13 and a half with juice favoring his under prize picks was slow to adjust and
they still had him up at 17 1 12 points plus rebounds so there was a huge Edge
taking the under of 172 on prize picks getting a 75% chance to hit this prop on
prize picks but as you can see here it wasn't just his Points Plus rebound line it
was his P points rebounds and assists was set to 195 originally when he was claimed
to be a starter and then whenever he was ruled coming off the bench it was bumped
down to 15 1 12 across the sportsbooks his fantasy score his actual points line and
even his Points Plus assist line insan say the value you could get on prize picks
when this happened because they were so slow to adjust so this right here is
actually Daily Grind fantasy and it's the website that I use to compare Sports
books lines and odds back to prize picks Underdog and all those other DFS apps to
find the best possible value like this every single day I'll leave a link down
below to Daily Grind fantasy and if you use code Dustin dgf you will get 25% off
your very first and Daily Grind fantasy doesn't just have NBA it shows the best
value for all of your major sports and even line Compares Esports as well guys you
can implement the same strategies I'm talking about in NBA today throughout this
video in all of these Sports and Esports as well you can find a bunch of value
throughout the NBA without even lineup or injury news but I want to show you guys
one more example here you can see that Jared Allen was ruled out for the Cavs and
that affected not only the Cavs but also the the Magic's uh player props because
Jared Allen being a big man down low that could affect rebounds and he's a scorer
as well but let's look at this we see Pao bonero was listed at 34 on prize picks
but the rest of the sports books had bumped this up to 342 with juice on the over
or even up to 35 A2 on multiple Sports books Donovan Mitchell and Max stru rebounds
lines have now bumped up as well across the the major sports books you can see
Bono's rebounds an assist uh went from 12 to 12 1 12 across the sports books and
Wendell Carter as well as he is a big man that would be down low with Jared Allen
so it just makes sense why these uh player props would adjust when somebody as big
to the game as Jared Allen would be ruled out um just before tip off I took that
value and put it into a five leg Flex on prize pick and cashed out for 10x now I'm
not saying this is going to happen every single time you are not guaranteed to win
just because you got good value but if you consistently get good value and beat the
closing lines that the sports books end with you are going to be a profitable
better in the NBA this season now majority of my examples and strategy are focused
around prize picks in those other DFS apps but you can do this as straight betting
as well you can see Andrew nard under 2 and 1 half rebounds was listed at minus 105
odds on fliff and there is huge value there but why when we look at Daily Grind
fantasy uh comparing flip back to the major Sportsbook Market we can see that the
rest of the market was close to -40 - 139 to be exact but let's say - 140 when
fliff has this listed atus 105 clearly fliff is off from what the rest of the
market is establishing uh these odds at so basically what what's going on here is
that flip is viewing this play as a less chance to hit than what the rest of the
market is are you going to trust Flip or the other three Sports books that are
agreeing this should be aroundus 140 so they are giving this a 54.5 6% chance to
hit so you're getting a 3% Edge because fliff is viewing it more so as like a 51%
chance to hit so that's why they have it priced at - 105 compared to the -40 so
that's the goal find whatever app or Sportsbook is off from the rest of the market
and play it there now let's switch gears back to prize picks and focus on what you
should be looking for on a normal prop a normal prop posted the prize piix none of
the injury news or lineup news props that are slow to adjust this Luca play was
listed at 3 and 1/2 on priz picks and 3 and 1/2 on the sports books so why are we
recommending the over on priz picks that's because look at the juice that the
sports books are giving this play right average odds of minus 163 to go over 3 and
1 half three-pointers made right giving it a 58% chance to hit now how do we find
that 58% chance to hit Daily Grind fantasy does this on the back end but they are
removing the juice from the sports books what you are paying the sports books just
for placing that bet right what they are making off you from just placing that bet
on the sports book we can find the true fair odds percentage that these Sports
books are giving this play to hit and that's about 58% also known as odds percent
to hit in same thing here with this Jaylen Brown play listed at 5 and a half
rebounds on prize picks same on the sports books but the sports books the data
points are all saying this is heavily favored to go over a 5 and a half rebounds
right trust the market trust the data and the sports books that have multi-million
dollar algorithms and models setting these lines and odds for a reason right and
then play it at the best possible odds you can find because that's how you're going
to be profitable long term get it atus 119 in a five or six man Flex on prize picks
which it should never be up on the prize picks board when it's that heavily favored
uh on the sports books because longterm you have an edge against prize pick and
prize pick doesn't like that that's why they bump and remove props so fast because
they know that there's an edge against them on a play like this but how do you know
you have an edge against prize pick let me explain five and six-man flexes are the
most profitable slip types and the easiest to be profitable long term when playing
prize picks because you need to be right on your individual legs playing five and
six man flexes at 54.2 plus% of the time right so we're taking those plays that the
sports books these multi-million dollar companies are giving 50 6 57% chance to hit
right in playing
them in five and six man flexes long term that's insane when you need to be right
just 54% of the time so they're saying that over and over and over again if you
play those props out a thousand times they going to hit 57% of the time that's
insane when you need to be right just 54.2% of the time and if you're playing two
and three man slips on prize picks you need to stop immediately cuz you're making
it harder on yourself you need to be right on your individual legs or have a hit
rate of above 58.5% of the time in three man slips and then 57.7% of the time in
those Twan Powers guys it's almost a 4% difference in hit rate that you have to
have when playing those slip types compared to five and six man flexes so yes the
ultimate goal is to find five or six plays that have insane value on prize picks
When comparing to the rest of the market you can see you are getting a full point
plus rebound on valent tunes' lines on prize picks lower than what the rest of the
market has clearly prize picks is off and there is value taking the over of 20 A2
on prize picks because you're going to trust the market as I mentioned trust the
five sports books that are telling you this should be at 212 compared to just prize
picks setting this line at 20 A2 and if you do that and you constantly get closing
line value like this where you're beating the market you are going to be profitable
playing prize picks playing the NBA this year now you're not going to win every
single slip those are five and six leg parlay but if you consistently get that
little bit of an edge 1 to 3% Edge over and over again it's going to add up think
about it like flipping a weighted coin if I had a coin that I knew was going to
land on heads 52% of the time right and I was flipping for heads you were flipping
for tails and you didn't know about it over the long term as we flip that coin
right that 2% Edge I'm getting on you is going to add up sure you're going to go on
runs where you have 10 taals in a row but if we do this over a thousand times that
2% Edge is going to keep showing up and I am going to end up flipping heads more
times than you are tails in the long term this strategy known as line comparing is
something that plenty of people are taking advantage of in seeing long-term
profitable success by doing so right but they're not quitting after a stretch where
you're losing 18 slips in a row right because if you lose 18 six leg slips in a row
that are 25x payouts and then you hit your very next one you are extremely
profitable over that stretch of slips just based off hitting one slip right but you
can see if you just stick to it which these people are that are seeing that success
right you are going to see a profitable NBA season but it gets even easier to
implement this strategy if manually line comparing using an odd screen like Daily
Grind fantasies optimizers as you guys can see here is not your style right you
don't want to have to manually look at all this and decipher what's good value
what's not they have an AI slip generator that AI uses line comparing Technologies
to build Out full slips that have value for you right you can see this slip right
here is spit out by the AI slip generator and all you simply do is reveal the slip
and then play it on Underdog right same thing for these other DFS apps like better
or even prize picks and on prize picks you can play slips with one click of a
button that will load up your prize pick slip over here on prize picks you just
enter in the amount you would want to play and you know that you are getting long-
term profitable value by using AI that can quickly way faster than you and I line
compare the sports books back to whatever app and build out those slips all you
have to do is tail and you can see here since the AI slip generator launched at
Daily Grind fantasy it is up over 2,000 units since 818 of 2023 actually insane
that we are now having AI do sports betting for us so if that's something you're
interested in I'll leave a link down below for the AI slip generator as well so yes
if you want to actually make money betting the NBA this season you need to remove
your emotions from your sports betting and start finding plays that have a real
Edge against the sports books via line comparing stop betting Jason Tatum over his
points line because he's your favorite player or the Celtics are your favorite team
I promise trust the sports books trust the data everything that you think you know
or can look up like the last five game logs last 10 game logs uh that Jason Tatum's
gone over up seven of the last 10 games that means nothing right the sports books
already know everything you think you know and more and and Implement that into
setting their own lines and odds based off their algorithms and multi-million
dollar models so trust the market trust the sports books get rid of everything that
you think you know all that hard stuff and you will be profitable betting the NBA
this season that's going to be it hope hopefully you guys enjoyed this video or you
learned something and if you did make sure you guys drop a like And subscribe if
you're not subscribed already we Post sports betting content like this every single
week

I know prize picks is marketed to be very very simple as in just choose overs and
unders and you can win money well most people that are coming onto the app that are
doing that are losing money because they don't know what they're doing they're just
choosing their favorite player or who their think's going to go off tonight that's
not the way you should be playing prize picks I'm going to show you the real way to
set yourself up give yourself the best chance to win money playing prize picks and
one quick note before we do get started I'm in a prize picks Arena state so my
prize picks might look a little bit different than yours if you're in a regular
prize pick State prize pick arena is a peer-to-peer uh game mode of prize pick so
there's some slight differences in payouts and such but essentially the same thing
so the advice I'm giving you guys today will work for either Arena prize picks or
regular prize picks first things first let's talk about how you actually play prize
picks you are to choose more or less on player projections and then you get a set
payout based on how many legs you have within your prize pick slip so if we have a
two-man slip with wiim minyama and Nicola jokic to go over their projections here
we are going to get a 3X payout a three-man payout is going to get you a 5x return
in on regular prize picks that's going to give you an option to either Flex or
power play a flex play if you go three to three will win you 2.25x and if you go
two of three you'll win 1.25x a fourman flex play will win you 5x going three of
four will win you 1.5x and then for five mans on regular and I'll quickly run
through the arena payouts since they are slightly different and then we'll talk
about regular prize fixed payouts in just a second but for arena if you add a third
man it's going to be a 5x return if you go three of three for four you are going to
get a 10x return if you go uh four of four for five mans you start to get a little
bit of a flex play the most you can at least in Arena play you're going to get a
15x turn for going five of five and if you go four of five you'll get a 1x turn
which is just your money back and then the six leg prize pick slip you are going to
get a 25x turn for going six of six and then if you go five of six you get your
money back if you go four of six you also get your money back that six like slip is
a very very good slip typon prize fix and now for regular prize picks payouts I
mentioned how a two-man power play gets you 3x return if you go two of two but I
did mention that power plays means you have to hit every single leg within your
prize pick slip to actually win money if you go 0 of in a Twan power you win
nothing if you go one of two you win nothing that goes for the same for all of
these power plays for a 3pick power play you have to go three of three and if you
do you win 5x if you miss any legs you win nothing for a 4pick power play the last
power play option on prize picks you would win a 10x return if you go four or four
if you miss a leg you win nothing what are Flex plays and what does it do to the
payouts well Flex plays just mean that you can miss a leg or two within your prize
pick slip and still have a chance to win money let's talk about it and break it
down we'll start from the smallest which is a three pick flex play where if you go
three of three you will get a 2.25x return if you go two of three you'll win 1.25x
for four pick Flex plays Four of four would win you 5x three of four would win you
1.5x now five pick Flex plays this is a little different uh five of five will win
you 10x four of five will win you 2x but you can actually miss two in this five
pick five pick flex and you would get 4X your money back so you wouldn't win
technically you wouldn't profit but you'd get some of your money from your entry
back and then the last one six pick Flex if you go six of six you'll get a large
25x return five of six 2 x return and then you could miss a second one in this as
well and go four of six and You' get a04 X return back so a little bit money of
your entry back in your pocket now the different slip types that you can be playing
on prize picks make a big difference when you're trying to make money playing this
app we'll touch more on that later but just remember that your payouts will almost
always be what I just mentioned however there are certain small reasons why uh you
might see a payout shift one of those reasons being correlation if I took Patrick
Mahomes over pass yards and I paired him with his biggest target receiving wise in
Travis Kelce right if Patrick Mahomes goes over pass yards of 2312 it's pretty
likely that Travis Kel's is going to be going over receiving yards as well so prize
pick knows that when these two plays are played together they are more likely to
happen so they're correlated uh so they are going to payout shift you you would
only get a 2.5x return instead of the typical 3x on a 2-an power if you were to
play these and just in case you didn't know you are not able to enter in a slip
with only players from one team you have to have at least two different players
from two different teams in order to enter a prize pick slip so if I wanted to play
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in a man power it would not let me enter this slip
because I would need to add at least one person from a different team however
another reason why I wouldn't want to enter this combination here if I could or in
a larger slip is because it has correlation this is going to be one of the only
reasons why you see a payout shift within your regular prize pick squares when
you're building out slips is if you have correlation if you guys don't know what
correlation is it means if one thing happens the other is likely to happen as well
so Patrick Mahomes if we're taking him over 2 312 pass yards and he goes goes over
231 half pass yards it's likely that Travis Kelce would be going over 63 1/2
receiving yards as well right because if fat momes thrown for that many yards it's
often times going to Travis Kelce however that's going to result in a payout shift
a two-man power would only give you 2.5x now I know I just mentioned that you can't
play just the same team but if you added in multiple more players it would still
read that you had correlation within this game and payout shift you for whatever
slip type you're trying to build and now a little bit of a deep dive into the set
prize picks payouts that will then parlay into me telling you exactly how to find
the best value in which slip types to play on prize picks if you're trying to
profit and actually make money long term if you didn't know these slip types have
set odds for each individual leg within the prize pick slip uh and if you don't
know about Sportsbook odds sportsbooks odds often times will change because the
Sports books uh when money comes in on a certain player prop let's say Patrick
Mahomes over 31 and2 pass yards if a bunch of sharp Sports bets are betting it they
might actually change the odds for the overs and unders right to adjust for that
sharp money coming in however since prize pick is a set payout platform they never
change their odds so you're always going to be getting these odds I'm mentioning as
long as you're not receiving a payout shift and let's start at the top with the
two-man power 3x return as we've already mentioned but you're going to get each leg
at - 136 odds three manow at - 140 a four pick power 10x return atus 128 odds on
each individual leg and then for a five pick Flex you are getting these at -119 and
a six-man Flex at -119 as well and how did we figure this out it's called math
there was math done based on the payouts for each of these slip types this is what
the odds you are getting for each individual leg is and you're probably wondering
now what are these percentages next to each one well 57.7% % next to this two-man
power means that you need to be correct on your individual legs above 57.7% in
order to be profitable long-term playing Twan powers and then 58.5 56.2 for these
but it gets even better playing five and six man flexes are mathematically the best
Slip types to play If you're trying to be profitable longterm playing prize picks
because you need to be right just above 54.2% of the time on your indiv idual legs
to profit long term so yeah this might be shocking to you guys stop playing two man
Powers play five and six man flexes only if you want to win money it's right here
in front of you guys why make it harder on yourself and have to be right 58% of the
time on your individual picks right to be profitable playing two-man Powers when
you could be right almost 4% less at 54.2 plus per and be profitable playing five
and six man flexes sports betting is already hard enough don't make it harder on
yourself make it easier on yourself so now you know we're playing five and six man
flexes on prize piix but how do you find Value that's going to help you win above
54.2% of the time that's what I'll show you next I use a website called daily Grand
fantasy that's going to help you compare Sports books lines and odds directly back
to prize picks Underdog parlay play fliff better all your favorite DFS apps to find
the best possible value but what's really clutches it does all of the hard math on
the back end to deig the lines and find the true fair odds percentage also known as
odds % to hit that these Sports books are giving these actual player props to hit
right so then all you need to do is find plays that are being given above a 54.2
plus% chance to hit and play those in five and six man plexes on prize picks but
now I want to show you examples on why this is good value when comparing sports
books back to prize picks we can see that Mark Andre flurry in the NHL is being
recommended under 28 12 saves on prize picks by the optimizer a Daily Grind fantasy
with a 55.83
chance to hit but let's look at what the sports books have this at four different
sports books have this at 262 on their Sports books right and FanDuel coming in at
272 clearly prize pick is way off from where the market is establishing around 262
so you're getting two full saves of value by playing the under on prize picks and
you're getting it almost at the same odds at-19 19 on regular prize picks and minus
116 on Arena prize picks so you you're getting a really really good play with a
high percent chance to hit so you want to get this in a slip and then right
underneath that we can see trayon Henderson under 78 half Rush plus receiving yards
set to 78 12 on prize picks but two other data points within the Sportsbook Market
or DFS Market as well being Underdog in fliff is set to 712 7 yards off from prize
picks but both agreeing this should be set to 71 and A2 are you going to trust
prize picks or the two books that set these lines independently in agree that this
should be at 712 it's clear again prize picks is off here's two NFL examples you
can see Drake May was listed at 150 pass yards on prize picks however the rest of
the market was closer to about 154 to 158 there was a few books that have this at
1452 being DraftKings and then uh parlay play also at 1452 but they are favoring
this heavily favoring this to happen at - 212 odds and - 185 odds when you see
these high minus numbers that means these Sports books are believing that these
have a very very good chance to happen so they are favoring these plays to happen
we are getting this at-150 right so off from the rest of the market and we're
knowing that this has a good chance to hit just kind of based on where these odds
are at for minus 145 and then after the math is done on the back end of Daily Grind
fantasy we see this is a 54.6 6% chance to hit so that qualifies as a good play on
prize picks and we can get that in our five and six man flexes and now just
underneath them Kirk Cousins over one and a half passing touchdowns obviously we
don't see a difference between the actual projection of 1 and A2 on prize picks and
1 and a/2 on the rest of the books but where the real difference is is in the
payouts in the odds we are getting minus 119 odds as I've already mentioned in
those five and six man flexes for our individual legs however the sports books all
have this average odds of about minus 141 so they are saying this has a good chance
to hit based on how they are setting these odds prize picks however leaving it up
atus 119 odds is basically saying they have they believe it has a lesser chance to
hit so who you going to believe the 7 eight Sports books we have here as data
points or prize picks remember Sports Books use them as data points trust them
because these are all multi-million companies that have algorithms in models
setting these lines and odds and they're way smarter than us so I promise they know
what they're doing they're profitable for a reason so trust the sports books trust
the data points and play these plays that are heavily favored on the books on prize
picks at way better odds and a better bang for your buck think about it like you're
shopping for a car you want to find the car that you want at the best possible
price or deal that you can find you search all the dealerships around you for that
Tesla you're wanting right and you see that four dealership have it at $35,000 but
then the dealership that's 10 minutes further has it at $32,000 you'd be out of
your mind to buy it at one of those other dealerships at 35,000 when you could get
it for 32,000 it's the same thing when you're shopping in these Sportsbook odds
right find where one book has or where all the books have a price way the heck up
here and where you can get it way down here right because over the long term that's
going to create Profit just like you would be creating profit by Saving $3,000 just
going up the road to buy it at that other dealership hopefully all of this is
clicking for you guys but I can make it one step easier with AI Daily Grind fantasy
actually has an AI slip generator that will line compare and find the best value
for you just like I was trying to show you guys how you could manually scan the
odds and find Value but AI has line comparing technology that's going to do that
for you on the back end and then just spit out full slips for you to tail and it's
extrem extremely simple you can see the tool is actually very very profitable it is
up over 250 units right now since launch of last year however let me show you how
easy it is to use if we scroll down we can see the slips that the tool is
recommending and you know that you can trust all of these slips that they are long-
term profitable slips because it's doing exactly what I showed you but a heck of a
lot faster than us having to do it manually and line compare and stare at that odds
screen for instance if you wanted to play on prize pick we see oh look at that
there's a six Flex on prize pick all we did was reveal the slip we'll click this
bet on prize pick button and what it's going to do is load up this slip right into
our prize pick account and then all we simply have to do is type in how much we
want to play it for we just sub submit lineup and boom it's going to enter in this
slip in less than 10 seconds was that it's easily the most easiest and profitable
tool to use in the market right now ai is taking over I mean you can put your hands
up and just simply tail all of these AI slips and it takes you maybe 5 minutes 10
minutes out of your entire day rather than staring at an odd screen trying to do
this yourself it's making life a lot easier and a lot more profitable if you want
to check out any of the tools from Daily Grind fantasy I'll leave a link down in
the description below but if you use code Dustin dgf you'll get 25% off your very
first month boom we turned you from a dummy to a profitable dummy no I'm just
kidding but I really do hope this video helped you guys learn that prize picks easy
on the surface but there is a little bit more you can learn about it to help set
yourself up for profitable success by having a tool like Daily Grind fantasy that
can really help you compare these Sports books lines and odds back to prize picks
to find the best value and give yourself a good chance to profit but uh if you guys
have questions feel free leave them down in the comments I will answer your
questions if you guys can drop a like on the way out of this video I would
appreciate that and if you're not subscribed already hit the Subscribe button WE
Post sports betting content like this every single week 4

how's it going guys welcome back to Daily Grind fantasy my name is Dustin and
today's video we are going to be showing you guys how to find Value in Esports and
become a profitable better playing these Esports and when I say this I mean it you
don't need to know anything about Esports you don't need to know who's on what team
the rules of any of the game modes or game types or specific games all you need to
do is be able to spot an edge throughout the market in order to find long-term
profitability I have never played a game of csgo in my life life I basically know
nothing about the game outside of it being Call of Duty's version of Search and
Destroy right but what I do know how to do is find an edge and I do that playing
MLB NFL NBA all of the major sports we can do the same thing here in Esports to
find an edge and I'm going to show you guys how so first things first I use a tool
like daily Grand fantasy to spot value across Esports I do the same thing as I
mentioned for all of the other major sports as well uh what it does is it Compares
Sports books lines and odds directly back the prize picks right but however since
the sports books don't actually have lines and odds for Esports projections kill
projections that is uh we have to look at the the DFS app market right all of these
different DFS apps set their own lines independently for what they believe these
player props should be set at it's the same thing as Sports books setting their own
lines and their odds right whenever you're a better and you're trying to find Value
in the market you have to line compare whether it's the sports books or DFS apps
like we're going to be doing for for Esports and see who is off where can you get
the best number where can you get the best value just like Kelsey Plum Right Here
Right 4 and 1/2 on prize picks at 5 1/2 on two other books but then FanDuel has it
at 4 and 1/2 but we're reading the odds they're at minus 136 so everything in the
market is pointing this should be closer to 5 5 and a half right and they're
favored over to go to go over uh 4 and 1/2 assist at -136 we can get this at 4 1/2
at -119 so clear value When comparing to the rest of the market that prize pick is
off in this projection and these odds so we want to play it on prize picks another
example let's use Luis Medina over 4 and a half strikeouts the entire Sportsbook
Market has this favored over 4 and a half strikeouts at minus 140 average odds
across the market right where can we find the best possible number and play it
there prize picks we know that in five and six man flexes because prize pick
doesn't shift for taking the over or the under we are going to be getting this play
at minus 119 odds whether we take the over or the under so we can play the over on
prize picks at minus 119 and get a minus 140 play on the sports books at- 1119 on
prize picks so over the long term that creates profit and you will be profitable
line comparing and getting the best possible odds on these DFS apps that don't
change their payouts for overs and unders all right enough of the regular Sports
let's get into the Esports and show you actually how to do this all right so first
things first the more more data points the better if you have multiple DFS apps
that have a line set for a projection and one is off you can really trust that more
than if you were just going one: one comparison or 2 to one comparison so the more
Sports books or DFS apps the better to be able to compare to with that being said
look at this top play right set the one and 1 half kills on prize picks set the one
and a half on hot streak hot streak is a dynamic payout platform that actually uh
adjust the money coming in in the overs and the unders so you're able to kind of
get a judgment of where these odds are favored so it's minus 286 to go over 1 and
A2 kills on hot streak but it's the same exact kill projection so do we really
trust hot streak versus prize picks do we trust that hot streak and everybody there
is is bringing in sharp money on the overs or we can come down here to myu and feel
a little bit more confident about the play because of the more data points we have
right myu is set to three and a half on prize Pick 4 and A2 on hot streak with
juice minus 180 to the over and then set the four on parlay play so all of these
DFS apps as I mentioned set lines inde dependently so if they're doing that this is
what they believe the projection should be set at so if the market is establish
establishing at 4 4 and a half because you have multiple DFS apps agreeing it
should be that high right and not only that uh if this is Juiced to the over at
minus 180 means they're giving it a likely chance to hit the over of 4 and half
half the other book is set to four so it's .5 higher than prize picks already no
juice included why not take this on prize picks atus 119 and a full kill lower than
hot streak and then 05 lower than the next closest book that's exactly how you find
Value in Esports that little bit of an edge that5 kills that one kill in in League
of Legends or let's talk about a little CSO so that was the optimizer of Daily
Grind fantasy that we were using however this is the middling tool if you guys want
access to Daily Grind fantasy I'll leave a link in the description to uh Daily
Grind fantasy you guys can get signed up for whatever subscription you'd like but
the best way to find plus EV value and be profitable over the long term using the
plus EV strategy is by using their tools to help you I do have to say that however
let's look at uh CS2 value right so and do we could see comparing to the DFS apps
that's what the middling tool does it takes the sports books out of it comparing to
just the DFS apps we can line compare these orts easily we see Underdog set to 16
prize pick set to 16 and then hot streak one and A2 head shot higher right so looks
like there's some value When comparing the three the DFS apps that we have uh
numbers for right on taking the under of 17 and a half on hot streak so that's
where I would be playing this play right um let's go ahead and look at the next
play CS2 again snacks over 26 and2 on on Underdog well let's just say 26 and A2 on
Underdog 26 and 1/2 on prize pick 262 on parlay play but a full kill higher on hot
streak so take the full kill higher right cuz all of those other three DFS apps are
saying this should be set lower at 262 you're getting one kill of value taking the
under of 272 on hot streak like I mentioned finding that little bit of an edge over
the long term and making sure you're getting the best number is going to pay off
and make you profitable so there is a strategy involving one to one comparisons and
I'm going to show you exactly how to do that it's called middle betting right if
you have two DFS apps that have set projections and they are so off from each other
that there is a percentage chance you could win both bets by taking the opposite
sides of those bets you want to take it right so right here we have demo under 43
kills on prize picks right but we have it at 412 on hot streak we would want to
take the under a 43 on prize picks the over a 412 on on hot streak and if it lands
at 42 or 43 we technically win uh both bets right we don't lose on prize picks and
we win on hot streak vice versa then obviously you could win on either side but if
you can find uh let's say CS2 six kill midds which happens all the time where these
DFS Ops apps really disagree from each other uh six kills in CS2 um or four kills
three kills in League of Legends those are very very profitable plays of the long
term playing both sides and I would suggest middling those but when should you not
middle when there is a clear outlier via the the DFS apps right so lucky is set to
292 on prize picks and CS2 here but 272 on parlay play so we could take a middle
right and then if it lands on 28 or 29 we would win both of those bets however if
we look at our other data point here hot streak is set to 282 with juice on the
under of one at 1 62 ODS right- 162 ODS so they're saying that this should probably
be around 272 but they're leaving it at 28 and juicing the under atus 162 so the
market is really set right around this minus uh or this 272 kills so prize picks is
the most off here you would want to just play this on prize pick rather than
middling on parlay play and I do just want to say just because you're getting two
to three to five six kills of value comparing to the market doesn't mean this is
going to hit all the time nothing is a 100% hit rate and this is gambling but the
more you can find an edge the bigger the edge the more long-term profitability you
will see so the goal on prize pick is to find five or six plays that have an edge
When comparing to the market and play them into a slip together without a payout
shift right cuz on prize picks five and six man flexes are the most profitable slip
types over the long term you need to be right on your individual legs at 54.3 plus%
% of the time in order to be profitable playing these slip types which is the
lowest hit rate you can have on prize picks to be profitable the biggest takeaway
here is that you need to know nothing about Esports in order to actually be able to
find Value when betting on them right trust the market these DFS apps are setting
lines the way they are for a reason all independently as I mentioned however each
DFS app knows who they are who's their opponent is right they also know that
they've hit over this kill projection in four out of the last five matchups
whatever it might be whatever you think you can look up and that you know these DFS
apps setting these lines already know that so trust it when they're setting these
projections and find who's off and now that you've learned how to find Value in
Esports I want to see you guys go crush it update me in the comments with how you
guys are doing
using the strategy and don't forget to like comment and subscribe

this is the best prize pick strategy to start winning money in 2024 in 2023 I went
up over 270 units if you're a $5 unit better that's $2,700 if you're a $100 unit
better that's $27,000 we're going to do it all over again in 2024 here's how in
short you need to start removing your emotions from sports betting and start
following the data in math by comparing Sportsbook slines and odds directly back to
apps like prize picks because in order to be profitable on apps like prize picks
you need to play plays that have an edge against prize picks Underdog or whatever
app you're playing on but how you find these plays and how efficiently you can get
them in is what's going to be the Difference Maker in you being super profitable or
not there's a few different ways to be profitable on prize picks we have plus evv
betting in correlation betting plus EV betting where we canare Sports books lines
and odds directly back to apps like prize picks but we have to be very very quick
to find these lines where there's an edge against prize picks and get them in
before they're bumped or removed and to do that we need a website like Daily Grind
fantasy that compiles all of the Sportsbook data into one place for you to be able
to quickly and efficiently scan the market to find their lines and odds all in one
place we are essentially listening to the sports books and following the data they
are putting right in front of our face to make mathematically profitable bets for
those of you that don't know prize pick doesn't adjust your payouts for taking an
over or an under on the same player prop unlike the sports books that actually
adjust what you win depending on if you select the over or the under or if there's
a lot of money coming in they can also adjust those lines prize pick has set odds
on these slip types so as you guys can see here here are the slip types for prize
picks and the set odds for those slip types the most profal slips over the long
term are five and six man flexes that you get at minus 1119 odds for each
individual leg for example look at this if I take the over or the under on Justin
Fields line it doesn't adjust my payout same thing thing if I did it with Taylor
hinek it's not going to adjust my payout so therefore we can find plays on the
sports books that have heavily Juiced odds and get them at better odds here on
prize picks and playing those plays with better odds on prize picks as opposed to
the sports books over the long term is how you're going to be profitable doing this
let me show you an example and hopefully it makes more sense look at this Dayton
Wade line for Old Miss we're recommending the under a 53 half receiving yards but
look look at the sports books and why we are recommending this under you have
multiple Sports books three of them that have this line set to 492 and one of them
being FanDuel that is really off compared to the market but set lower at 41 a half
so you have four Sports books saying this should be lower than what prize pick has
it set at at 53 A5 and they are putting minus 1225 - 131 andus 125 odds on the
under of that 49 A5 so not only are you getting this play at minus 119 in a five or
six-man flex but you are getting four four yards of value compared to the sports
books here's another example of what we see very often and we take advantage of it
LeBron James was listed at eight and a half assist on dabble which is an app just
like prize picks with set payouts but the sportsbooks also had it at 8 and a half
so no discrepancy as far as the line goes but if we look at the odds average odds
across these major Sports Books five different data points has this set to minus
155 so they are saying there's a favorable chance that the over of 8 a half hits we
played this on dabble at minus 122 odds which is absolutely insane getting a play
at- 122 compared to minus 155 over the long term that's a really profitable play
basically playing plays that are given a favorable chance to hit via the sports
books that have discrepancies with their lines or heavily Juiced odds on the sports
Sports books but getting them at the set payout and the better odds on apps like
prize pick so yes the goal is to play these plays that have heavily Juiced odds or
discrepancies uh when comparing back to prize picks on prize picks in a five or
six-man Flex because over the long term getting those at minus 119 when these plays
that you're putting in these slips areus 150 minus 180 on the sports books is how
you are going to be profitable just think of it like this if you're buying a car
and four dealerships have that same car let's say a Honda Civic at $25,000 but just
down the road there's this other dealership dealership 5 that has it set at $22,000
for that same exact car you'd be out of your mind not to go down the street and get
it at $22,000 instead of paying $25,000 for it elsewhere that's exactly what we
want to do on prize picks think about it that car dealership that had it set at
22,000 was way off when comparing to the market so they are getting taken advantage
of because they're pricing it wrong price pick has these props that are priced way
lower at these odds than compared to the sports books in the rest of the market so
if they're all agreeing those Sports books are agreeing this should be said at this
and prize pick is the outlier you'd be stupid not to play it on prize picks as
opposed to the sports books daily gr fantasy does all the math in the back end to
find the true odds percent to hit for these plays as you can see Dayton Wade has a
55.4 4% chance to hit over the long term that is a huge Edge if you flip a coin and
told you that heads was going to hit 55% of the time and Tails was going to hit 45%
of the time but you got to choose which side of the coin you could choose what are
you going to pick heads or tails obviously heads because over the long term you are
going to win if you have a 55% chance to hit thankfully the optimizer updates in
real time as sportsbooks adjust their lines and odds it portrays here on the
optimizer if uh a prop gets posted on prize pick it portrays on the optimizer and
shows you all in one place at that exact time what these lines and odds are across
the market allowing you to be able to quickly and efficiently get these plays in
and beat the bumps or before prize picks removes them because they do it pretty
fast but not fast enough because you are able to take advantage of them and get
these in very often because without a tool like this it would be impossible to
manually know when lines get posted like this or when odds are heavily in your
favor on a certain prop therefore you would miss a million of these plays before
you could get them in without having having a tool like this so yes plus EV betting
over the long term is a proven proven method to be profitable on apps like prize
picks now you have to also take into consideration you must manage your bank roll
you can't be spending all your money on one slip or anything like that we recommend
never more than 1% of your bank roll on each slip right or on each bet so please
manage your bank roll and do this over the long term at volume get as many slips as
you can with these heavily Juiced plays or these plays with an edge and you will be
profitable now let's talk positive correlation and how it's one of the biggest
edges in DFS right now on apps like prize pick Underdog and other set payout
platforms positive correlation where if x happens y and z are also likely to happen
in short if certain props are played together they are more likely to hit when
played together reminder prize picks doesn't change your payout for taking the over
or the under it stays the same and that's important when it comes to correlation in
playing it on prize picks yes there's another tool on Daily Grind fantasy called
the correlation tool that literally scans the market to find the most positively
correlated plays puts them together in full slips for you to tail this tool was
only added on 8818 of this year 2023 I'm filming this at the very end of the year
and it's up 749 units to date it gives you slips for many different DFS apps and
sports as you guys can see here the DFS apps and the sports offered college
football NFL NHL soccer NBA CS2 many many different sports in DFS apps for you to
take advantage of so let's reveal a slip and see why this is such a huge Edge
playing it on a DFS app that has set payouts as opposed to a same game parlay on
let's say FanDuel or DraftKings we'll reveal this Los Angeles Rams versus New York
Giants slip as you guys can see here we have positive correlation let's look at the
Ram side of things Matthew Stafford to go over 257 a half pass yards if he's going
over that number of pass yards it's likely that maybe Demarcus Robinson and and
puka neua are going to go over their receiving totals so Demarcus Robinson to go
over receiving yards and if nkua is catching over five and a half passes it's
likely helping Matthew Stafford go over his receiving yards and then on the flip
side of things Tyrod Taylor if he's going over 197 a half pass yards it's likely
juandale Robinson is going over receiving yards and maybe Slayton is going over
receptions helping him get over that total of passing yards so pretty simple
correlation here on this slip but but these slips can get much more complicated
adding in tackles plus assists field goals interceptions Etc this tool literally
scans the market and gives you the most profitable slip whether it includes those
or not so yes we know it's heavily correlated but let's look at the payout and why
this is going to be a very very profitable slip over the long term playing it on
prize piix instead of that same game parlay on FanDuel as you guys can see a $100
wager going six of six wins you 25x which is $2,500 on prize picks if we take those
same props and add them in give or
take some yards some catches whatever it might be on on on FanDuel and add them in
going six of six on that same slip in the same game parlay on FanDuel only pays you
$1,882 so $6 $700 difference in playing it on prize picks in a in a six-man Flex as
opposed to FanDuel but now let's take it one step further not only are we getting
paid more money uh for going six of six let's look at the insurance on prize picks
if you go five of six you can still profit and win two extra money if you go five
of six on FanDuel you lose your money there it goes done if you go four of six on
priz picks point four your money back so you get a couple bucks back FanDuel four
of six boom nothing your money's gone that's actually insane that you're getting a
better payout for going six of six plus the insurance but why does FanDuel dock
your payout for for having this positive correlation because FanDuel knows when
playing these plays together they have a higher chance to hit when played together
therefore they're going to dock your payout and take away some of that edge playing
them together that is why playing these on prize picks over the long term is
insanely profitable having a tool like Daily Grind fantasy that scans the market in
real time to find you the most profitable correlated slips makes it super easy to
be profitable when correlation betting and of course you want to be playing these
slips at volume to help fight against negative variants you're not not going to win
every slip there's going to be times when you're losing multiple slips in a row you
just need that one slip to bring you back up to profitability because think about
it a 25x you can lose 23 times hit the next one and still be profitable this is a
long-term game that's why it's important to manage your bank roll as I mentioned
with plus EV betting as well if you want to get access to Daily Grind fantasy the
optimizer and the correlation tool you guys can go to the link in the description
of this video get access and start being profitable in 2024 on prize picks thanks
so much for watching guys if you guys enjoyed this video drop a like And subscribe
if you're not subscribed already we post videos like this with education and daily
Pick videos all the time

what is going on guys Matt Downs with Daily Grind fantasy sports and in this video
I'm going to talk directly to you the average Joe just like me on how to remain a
profitable Sports better in the long run and I totally get it you're on YouTube
probably for the exact same reason the majority of you are on YouTube and that's
because you need help sports betting whatever you're doing whatever your whatever
your process is for sports betting you're probably not having too much success at
least in the long term and I just want to keep reiterating that I was just like you
I was in your shoes about four or five years ago had no idea how to really observe
the market and take advantage of these props that were mispriced and it really does
suck because this industry is clouded with deception we have so many cappers on on
YouTube whether it be on social media like Instagram Twitter that just show their
short-term profits show their their you know one thousand dollars in the five
thousand dollars but they're never willing to actually show you long-term profits
and to even go a step further the sports books Never teach you about the hidden
price points the hidden juice within math on how they are a able to remain
profitable off 99 of sports betters nobody's willing to talk about that the real
problem is that the one percent of people who actually make profit sports betting
aren't the loudest in the industry and quite frankly we usually aren't able to turn
one thousand dollars into ten thousand dollars because we're limited the
sportsbooks don't let us bet as much money as the normal better and from a
marketing perspective I can see how this can turn off a ton of people people are
just looking for that quick Buck they're looking to win that couple hundred dollars
a night and it just gets rid of those realistic expectations the realistic
expectations are that you actually can make money in the long term as long as
you're able to gain small mathematical advantages every single night and I just
want to back up my my background is certainly not around mathematics whatsoever I
come from a finance background and even within that industry I hit it every second
of it but what I did learn through my passion is that I was actually obsessed with
sports betting I was obsessed with sports betting on prize picks on Underdog
DraftKings I was also obsessed with doing DFS lamps and always finding an edge I
would find myself just not sleeping at nights going scrolling through DFS apps
trying to find the next big thing trying to find the next big Edge even trusting
some YouTubers out there but then one single day I had the light bulb click and
that's what really sparked this company called daily ground fantasy sports and
after searching the market really no single piece of software existed that really
compared Sports books lines directly to DFS apps where you were able to gain a
mathematical Edge in the long run literally just started creating a WordPress site
and Ram with it it started out with like a simple table and I want to explain to
you guys because there's so much junk on the internet why this works and I don't
want to show it in a way or use terminology that's going to confuse the average
casual better instead I want to show you guys visually why this works and this is a
whole nother reason why I even created the software that I did in the first place
is because I felt like there's no software out there that really appealed to the
Casual better I wanted to visually show people why this worked and before going any
further if you guys could please hit that like button that subscribe button also
that notification Bell I post content like this all the time and if you guys
actually want to compartmentalize what I'm talking about today and make money in
the long term please do hit that subscribe button I'm going to show you my results
from over 2023 it's been a slow grind and realistically this is how you guys will
remain profitable in the long run over small mathematical advantages every single
night it's a long-term grind the strategy that I'm referring to is called the plus
EV betting strategy all that is is simply comparing the value the price point that
you get on DFS apps like prize picks Underdog other DFS apps and comparing it
directly to the market consensus DraftKings FanDuel if they're pricing it at a very
very high price tag an expensive price tag and you can take it at a better value on
a different app using that market consensus knowledge you can remain profitable by
taking advantage of these value plays and I don't want to lose you here because
because again that can be confusing on the surface but it's actually super simple a
real example that I use and it can be relatable to a majority of the people that
I'm talking to right now is the car dealership example because a majority of you
have been Price shopping for cars at least at some point in your life let's just
hypothetically say you're going out to buy a new car a Honda Civic we'll call the
2023 car dealership a has it priced at twenty five thousand dollars be twenty five
thousand dollars see twenty six thousand dollars D we'll call it twenty four
thousand dollars and then e prices at twenty one thousand dollars and at no point
am I saying this 2023 Honda Civic is a good car nor am I saying that it's worth
twenty thousand dollars twenty five thousand dollars or thirty thousand dollars but
using Market data given the price of these cars at a car dealership you can assume
that a Honda Civic brand new out of the box at 2023 is worth about twenty five
thousand dollars and I think that we can realistically assume that because you have
the support of about five different car dealerships that are saying that it's
exactly that price or at least around that price point but if car dealership e has
it priced at twenty one thousand dollars guess we are going to buy that new Honda
Civic and I used that example because sports betting really is that easy and the
software that I own is simply just a price comparison tool and showing you where
you should be taking advantage of these price tags but you also have to think about
this logically at no point am I saying that the 2023 Honda Civic is a fantastic car
nor am I ever going to say that this is a fantastic bet because that's where people
get lost right some people say whenever I post a video and I talk about my favorite
place they're actually my favorite place no you'll never win money by trusting your
fundamental analysis this has been proven time and time again because the market
always knows more than the average Sports better 99 of you all I'm saying is that
if a prop is given a good price point a consensus price point and it's mispriced on
another app you're probably going to make money off that missed price prop just
like if the market prices a car at 25 dollars but you can get it at twenty one
thousand dollars you're probably gonna end up getting the best bang for your buck
off of that price point and you really can't use this example for anything in life
when you're comparing prices at a grocery store or even when buying a house you can
never guarantee that when you buy a house it's gonna be worth it in five years just
like when you place a prop bet I can't guarantee that the player is not going to
get injured if you hit an over or vice versa but by trusting Market data that's
where you'll get an edge and become a sharp profitable Sports better now using that
logic of comparing market prices to one another whether it be in the car dealership
industry whether it be in the home buying industry it does not matter what industry
you're targeting here I'm simply going to show you exactly how to use that market
knowledge compare the market knowledge throughout different sports books and then
show you the best missed price props on DFS apps like prize picks Underdog Etc I
want to visually show you this and this is the exact reason why I have the software
why I created the software in the first place because visually seeing it is a lot
better than just trusting somebody and trusting a Capper to lead you in the in the
right direction right so in this exact example per my software we have Christian
Javier for the Astros right now his hits allow prop us at the five and a half on
prize picks also five and a half on the uh industry average consensus data and for
any new sports betters in the industry all these lines mean are they're just a
glorified price point that the sports books are offering for if you were the place
of straight bet at their app how they would pay you out in American odds but none
of that matters all you need to know is if you're getting a better price point at a
different app given this drop down on the top of my software all you guys need to
know is that prize picks five Flex slips offer a price point of minus 119 odds that
is a better price point than all these other apps here looking across the board for
a Christian Javier example I'm Pinnacle you're getting him at minus 157. Pinnacle
is punishing their feathers by placing a straight bet to go under hits allowed more
so on Pinnacle right and on DraftKings minus 135 same thing with Batman GM you guys
get the point on prize picks you're getting that exact same prop in a five Flex
slip at minus 119 odds minus 119 price point and to reiterate again we are not
saying that Christian Javier is going under his hits a loud prop at five and a half
we're simply saying based on our market knowledge we're getting a good price point
that is mispriced at prize picks and the market knows all right they are going to
remain profitable in the long run based on their accurate projections their
accurate price points that they give these player props but that's the great thing
about this industry every single sports book every single DFS app has their own
sports betters and money lines right
but if we're able to take and compare oranges to oranges and see price comparisons
that are different and mathematically profitable we take advantage of them
hopefully all this information made sense guys if it did please do with that
subscription button notification Bell and of course smash that like button for all
of our future content with all that being said have a great rest of your day and
let's cash

stop playing two man powers on prize picks if you're playing two man Powers you
actually hate making money sports betting and you probably need to watch this video
to win this video I'm going to be telling you guys why Twan powers are one of the
worst slip types available on priz picks for long-term profits and then tell you
what you should be doing and the slip types you should be playing to actually make
money on prize picks we all know prize picks does not change your payouts for
taking an over or an under you're still always going to get your 3x for your Twan
Powers your 25x for six flexes and except for certain little scenarios where there
is correlation involved let's say if you take Patrick Mahomes over passing yards
and Travis Kelce over receiving yards those two things are correlated if Patrick
Mahomes is going over those pass yards it's probably likely that Travis Kelce is
going over a receiving yards so therefore they are going to reduce your payout
since it is more likely to happen when they're played together but outside of that
if you don't have correlations your payouts are going to stay the same and for you
to realize why you should stop playing these two man and three man slips on price
picks you need to understand the math behind each priz pick slip and it will show
you how you're putting yourself at a disadvantage playing those slip types here's
the broken down math behind each priz piix slip type and what you're looking at is
if there is no payout shifts you are getting on Twan slips that have a 3X payout so
two man Powers you are getting each leg at minus 136 odds and you have to be right
on your individual legs at 57.7 plus% of the time in order to be profitable
longterm playing that slip type same thing for three mans 5x payout minus 140 for
each leg in that slip type and you need to be right almost 59% of the time on your
individual legs to be profitable longterm playing that slip type and to break this
down a little bit easier for you if you played a total of 500 Twan powers that
would be 1,000 props that you had played on prize picks within those Twan Powers if
you tracked every single one of them the ones you got right the ones you got wrong
you would have needed a total hit rate above 57.7 plus% in order to be profitable
over that stretch playing those two-man Powers so I've mentioned two mans and three
mans four mans basically the same thing 56.2% but now let's get into the slip types
you should be playing on prize picks now let's take a look at five and six-man
flexes the actual slip types you should be playing if you want to make money on
prize picks based on the payouts and broken down math of these slip types these are
going to be mathematically the most profitable slip types that you could play on
eyes piix and let me explain in both of these slip types you are getting each
individual leg at minus 119 odds and you need to have a hit rate of above 54.2 plus
% in order to be profitable longterm playing these slip types 54.2% that's around a
4% difference when comparing to two mans and three mans sports betting is already
hard enough so hopefully you guys understand this and it makes sense to you guys
that by playing those two mans and three mans you're putting yourself in at a
disadvantage because long term you have to be right 4% more of the time than
playing five and six man flexes so why make it harder on yourself play five and
six-man flexes believe me I get it two man powers are easier to hit and you're
going to hit them more often than you are five and six man flexes on prize pick but
given the math breakdown I just gave you guys it's harder to maintain profitability
when playing two Man compared to those five and six mans so now you know you need
to play five and six man flexes on prize pick but how do you find good enough value
that's going to help you win above 54.2% of the time well I'm glad you asked cuz
now I'll explain exactly what I do to find the best value that's going to help me
profit long-term playing these slip types I use a website called Daily Grind
fantasy to compare Sports books lines and odds directly back to prize picks
Underdog parlay play better all of your favorite DFS apps to find the best possible
value and it even breaks down the math on the back end to show you the percent odds
to hit that the sports books are giving these plays so it is that simple you need
to find plays that are above 54.2 plus per and get them into your slips in the long
term that is good enough value that you are going to be profitable if you keep
doing this now let me break it down for you here's some of the NBA value that
popped up on Daily Grind fantasy and I want to use Jared Allen under 2 and 1 half
assists as this example just because it's very easy value to be able to see and
understand to maybe a beginner you see Jared Allen under 2 and a half assists is
what's being recommended by the optimizers at Daily Grind fantasy uh with a 56.4%
chance to hit So based off how the books are pricing this with their lines and odds
and remember all books set their lines and odds individually right these are
different separate data points that you can use to your advantage back to prize
piix right so we see that all of these have about average odds ofus 157 across the
market if we remember prize picks in a six pick or five pick Flex we are getting
these at minus 119 odds so you are getting a play that on the sports books if you
took the under 2 and a half you're getting it at- 1557 but since you're taking it
on prize pick you are getting it at -119 and that means a bunch in the long term
getting it at those odds compared to what the sports books have it at Let's Pretend
This is a straight bet and you put $100 on the sports books at minus 157 for under
2 and 1/2 assists you would have made a total profit of6 $63 however if you place
this at-19 odds you would have profited $84 a difference of $20 if you continue to
do this over the long term and you're getting 20 extra dollars of value when you
are hitting these plays you are going to create profit for yourself but how does
Daily Grind fantasy find out the odds for sent a hit of these plays what it does on
the back end it does all the math for you and it removes the juice from the sports
books basically what you are paying the sports books for just placing that beted
over there and you find the the true fair odds percentage all of these Sports books
are giving this play to hit and then you know that longterm the sports books the
most trusted things you could possibly use as data points right are saying this has
a 55.1 15% chance to hit so playing that in a five or six-man Flex is extremely
profitable long term and why are we trusting the sports books that's because they
have multi-million dollar algorithms and models setting these lines and odds for
them Plus plus it's in their best interest to set these lines and odds as
accurately as possible because they're trying to make money off their customers
they don't want to get caught slacking with a bad line and lose money to their
customers however we're shopping for a bad line on whatever app we can get it at by
comparing to those Sports books that are setting these really accurate really good
lines every single day I mean look at this top example here you can see the trend
that's happening with the sports books prize picks at the 292 atus 119 odds every
other book majority of them has it at 272 or 282 all of them bumping this lower
than what priz piix has besides DraftKings and parlay play they're still set to 292
they reducing it at - 1225 and- 133 to the under so they are favoring the under at
292 and pretty soon I wouldn't be surprised if they bump this down to match the
rest of the market at either 27 or 282 and we still get this at 292 on priz piix at
the best possible odds across the market so yes that's the goal to find five five
or six plays that have an average Fair odds percentage or odds percent to hit above
54.2% and you will have a long-term profitable slip just keep doing that at volume
and if manually staring at an odd screen line comparing yourself isn't for you
Daily Grind fantasy actually has an AI slip generator where AI line Compares and
builds Out full slips for you all you have to do is tail them it's up 274 units
since launch of 818 and 23 and it's so simple to use here's some of the slips that
are spit out on the tool right now but let's say we're going to place a prize pick
slip we load it up and we click this button bet on prize picks with one click of a
button it's going to load up this slip on prize picks all we simply do is Place
submit lineup after entering in how much you would like to bet and it's going to
place the slip for you the easiest and most profitable tool in the game having AI
line compare for you and just tell you what to play is extremely efficient when
you're trying to beat the bump and secure the best value cuz it takes some time for
you to manually line compare and compare these books and decide what you want to
play and then to go entered in on those apps right but if you come here and you
click this bet on prize pick button within an instant it pulls it up on prize pick
and you can secure the best value before the bumps and even on Underdog there's not
a uh oneclick bet button but you have to do no decision making just simply tail
these slips and you know you're getting long-term profitable slips because AI is
doing all the hard work for you you can just trust that it is finding the best
value and putting into these slips for you and as you can see on prize picks it's
spitting out the most profitable slip types in six-man flexes and five flexes as
well if you want to check out Daily Grind fantasy I will leave a link in the
description below but if you use code Dustin dgf you'll get 25% off your very first
month and then maybe you can start securing
some value like this look at all of these plays bumped in favor of Daily Grind
fantasy users or even pulled off the board completely because they had an Ed
against prize pick prize pick doesn't like that so then they have to either remove
or bump these plays in order for them to not get absolutely crushed by their users
in this slip I showed you guys before that I hit for 25x this past weekend I
actually placed on a live stream showing off the tools and how you use them uh cuz
I want people to win right I want people to realize what you should be doing to be
profitable sports betting and I give out all my slips for free on Twitter and live
streams so make sure you're follow me on Twitter at sports by Dustin but I used a
little bit of a combo method between the optimizers and the AI slip generator I
used the AI slip generator to oneclick this slip put it into my prize picks and
then what I did was I realized I've already played a few of those props I didn't
want to overexpose myself uh and play those slips or those props again so what I
did was I removed two of the props that I've already played and then I went to the
optimizer and found the best value available on the board and replaced those plays
with some of the best value on the board at that current time and it ended up
paying off for a 25x but most importantly I used that oneclick bet button for prize
picks on the AI generator to load up all of those plays so I didn't have to waste
time manually enter them in uh and I only had to enter in the ones that I needed to
replace and my last piece of advice when betting these five and six-man flexes is
that you're not going to win every single slip remember these are five and six leg
parlays they are not easy to hit but also remember that if you go o of 19 on your
six leg prize pick slips and you hit the next one you're pretty dang profitable for
that stretch being that you're getting a 25x payout on that 20th slip so my thing
is there's going to be negative variance there's going to be positive variance
stick through it with the negative variance and then when that positive variance
hits you are going to hit two of them in 5 days and you're going to be very very
profitable and if you keep doing this over the long term you're going to be
extremely profitable playing prize picks and that's exactly why you should never
play more than 1% of your bank roll on any slip because it gives yourself a chance
to stay in the game longer if you're going through a negative variant streak and
you're going over 20 and then you hit one whatever it might be you want to be able
to have bankroll to withstand that negative streak and stick in the game right if
you go ahead and you have $500 and you are placing uh $30 a slip you're going to be
out of the the game fast if you run into a negative variance streak you need to be
playing $5 a slip at $500 bank roll or $10 slips at $1,000 bank roll you get what
I'm getting at here I promise if you take my advice you will be a profitable Sports
veter on prize pick over the long term but that is going to be it for this video
hopefully you guys enjoyed or learned something if you did make sure you guys drop
a like And subscribe as well we Post sports betting content like this every single
week

what is going on guys Matt Downs with Daily Grind fantasy sports and in this video
we're going to go over how to beat prize picks go over all the basics on how to
play the platform and essentially how to remain a profitable Sports better over the
long term and for anybody who is brand new to this channel daily Grand fantasy
sports is a software used to beat prize picks but now let's go ahead and dive into
it now let's first go ahead and talk about this daily fantasy sports platform when
you think of daily fantasy sports the first thing that comes to my mind is going to
be DraftKings or fanduel's salary cap format and I only think this way because
DraftKings and Vandal is something that I played a lot back in the day DraftKings
and fanduel's salary based format is where you put together a lineup every single
day based on a appropriate price tag that each one of these players are assigned
and that's how you compete you put together a lineup and then compete against other
users on that platform this is otherwise known as user versus user betting the main
difference between prize picks and DraftKings daily fantasy sports is that prize
picks are playing against the house whereas when DraftKings are playing against
other users so let's talk about this when I put together a prize picks lineup or
slip I'm putting together a combo of other players where I'm selecting the over or
under of certain projections for them to hit the over under if I hit on the slip a
certain amount of plays then I get paid out and the House website is paying me out
as opposed to other users because on DraftKings you're taking other users money on
prize picks you're taking prize pix's money another thing to note is that prize
picks makes money right they are a company so that means a majority of users that
are playing on this platform are long-term losers and we'll talk about why in just
a second but also more importantly keep in mind that this is a fixed payout
platform also meaning that no matter whether you select the over or under of any
projection they never change the payout uh for any one of their slip types so for
instance if I'm playing a five Flex slip I'm always going to get 10 x return for a
5 out of 5. I'm gonna get two times for four out of the five and for three out of
the five picks I get point four return back all right but if I do a six Flex slip
I'm also never gonna see these payouts change it's always going to be those same
ones same thing for four Flex or four man Powers it doesn't matter whatever you
select three man Powers never change two main powers never change and one more
thing to note is that there's two different slip types when playing on prize picks
right there's your power plays and then there's your Flex Place power play you lose
all your money if you get one of the picks wrong in your slip whereas with flex
place you still get money back based on how many specific picks that you miss and
the way that prize picks makes money is that they have hidden implied odds within
all of these legs you need a certain amount of percent odds to hit to break even on
individual legs that you're putting in the slip and I know that sounds confusing
but prize picks operates very similar to sportsbooks in the exact same way where
they have lines baked into every single one of their place even though they're a
fixed payout platform and our prize picks hack is going to be selecting what's
called plus EV plays plays that are long-term profitable based on the implied odds
that prize picks is giving their individual legs Within These slips so let's talk
about everybody's favorite slip type here the two-man power where you put two plays
together if they hit then you technically get three times return so by taking what
this would look like on the sports books we can find out the implied odds behind
this slip type so if you look here you put in a hundred dollars you get 300. this
also implies that the parlay odds are about plus 200 and the individual bet odds
are going to be minus 136 minus 136 and some change so if we head back here we can
basically assume that each one of these legs are going to be set to minus 136
implied odds and what we're about to do here is we're going to go through every
single slip type and determine who has the best implied odds or the easiest implied
odds to hit based on exactly how they pay out but before doing that I would really
like to encourage you guys to go ahead and hit that like button smash that
notification Bell and of course hit that subscribe button because we post plus Ev
videos every single day the entire point of this YouTube channel is to Simply
educate our users and show them how to be profitable long-term feathers and if you
stay to the very end of this video I'll show you exactly how to do that on prize
picks so now let's move on to three-man power Place three-man power plays pay five
times your initial payout so when you put in a hundred dollars you're getting 500
back and this implies implied parlay odds of plus 400 so to show you per leg it's
about an average of minus 141 implied odds and three-man flex plays are actually
the worst slip type on prize picks you only get 2.25 times payout if you get all
three of your plays correct and only 1.25 times back if you get two correct to move
on to four man power plays you get 10x your return this will imply parlay odds of
about plus 900 and the total payout of obviously a thousand dollars by putting in a
hundred dollars mathematically this equates to about minus 129 to minus 128 implied
odds for four man Flex plays you actually get five times getting four out of four
and one point five times getting three out of the four when we take a look at the
hidden math behind that the break even point is going to be around around 56.9
percent which equates to minus 132 implied odds because again we're showing the
break-even points and the EV on each one of these scenarios moving on the five-man
flex place we actually have no such thing as five-man powers on prize picks so
there's just one specific payout for five man flexes you get 10x for 5 out of 5 you
get 2x for 4 out of 5 and you get point four X or three out of 5. this equates to a
break even fair odds percentage of 54.26 which again then translates to -118.6
implied odds will round up to -119 and again we're showing the EV for each scenario
for where you go 0 out of the five one nine five two out of the five three out of
five four other five and five out of the five and last but not least we have the
six man Flex let's go over those payouts a six out of six gets 25x 5 out of 6 gets
2X and then 4 out of 6 gets point four x when we take a look at the EV for each
scenario here we're looking at the break even percentage of about the same as a
five Flex 54.21 which equates again to -118 and apply that so now that we know the
break even percentages the the implied odds of each one of these these slip Types
on prize picks we can then take this a step further right so two correct plays
payout a plus 200 odds or parlay odds as as they would on the on the sports books
pay out 3x you're you're buy-in right so knowing that information um we have a
projected win percentage of fair odds percentage of 57.75 to break even and two-man
Powers so that would mean if we find implied odds that are greater and then convert
to Fair odds of 57.75 on sportsbooks those plays would be profitable on prize picks
because again we're looking for a break even percentage of real probability in
order to beat out the imply the odds of minus 136. so when you take out the juice
of minus 136 on this side plus 136 on this side we're getting Fair odds of 57.63 so
taking a look at our profitable plus EV betting software and Daily Grind fantasy
sports we actually found a couple plays here I'm gonna take a look at them here on
on prize picks on Sports battle this player is actually set to 34.5 with minus 122
implied odds on prize picks he's set the 33 total kills so that would move the
needle enough to make this a fair odds percentage of 54.44 or for three percent
rather so if we switch over to que serado and take the over at 33 kills and then we
switch back here uh dssj uh set to 12 here on prize picks but it looks like he's
set to Under 12 and a half here on hot streak and also Under 12 and a half here on
underdog if we go to BSS sorry dssj and we take the over 12 map one to two
headshots taking these two overs as you can take a take a look here 54.43 and 54.4
percent we'll go ahead and round it to 54.4 percent average odds here we're saying
that these Fair odds per leg are about 54.4 percent but we need average Fair odds
of 57.75 so you'd be losing to prize picks adding minus three percent profit margin
in the long term again because these odds only equate to about 54.4 percent and
these plays would not be optimal and a two-man power now let's take a look at a
couple other plays switching back to our software here we have two MMA fighters
that fight on Saturday I have no idea what I'm looking at I don't know the names or
anything but that doesn't matter because all I need to know is that per the fair
odds of this prize picks play um bet online is setting the round under at 1.5 here
with plus 200 Jews but we're getting minus again thinking back minus 118 implied
odds at two and a half round counts right and prize pick shows this in terms of
minutes so we're taking the minutes we're taking the under because this play has
Fair odds of 65.32 and if we just scope out the board one last time here uh Dennis
not even gonna try to pronounce that last name versus Gregory Rodriguez this play
has Fair odds of minus 152 by taking the over on prize picks at one and again each
round is five minutes so you guys do the quick math Daily Grind fantasy sports
Optimizer does all that math for you regardless we're taking two Fair odds
percentages this one's higher
than 57.5 it's 57.59 so a .09 profit margin and then 65.32 this this slip type
would definitely be optimal for a two-man power right because again relating back
to our projected one percentage of two-man Powers you have to break even each leg
you have to win each leg of 57.75 of the time and if you think about this logically
the average casual Sports better Only Hits their average likes about 50 percent of
the time it's literally a coin flip chance again thinking about the average Sports
better who's just betting as a hobby and now we're gonna take this one step further
so if we relate back to our Que serado Play and I can't spell his name apparently
que serado k-s-e KSC hitting the overhead 33 and then our headshots dssj over 12
and then I throw in one last play here Zach wheeler over six and a half strikeouts
as you can see average imply the odds of minus 141 and a fair odds percentage of
54.61 so if I take a look at Wheeler over six and a half and then thinking back to
our five Flex average uh win percentage we only have to have average implied odds
of minus 118.6 per leg or an average Fair odds one percentage of 54.26 right so if
you think about the the percent odds to hit the average percent odds to hit that
we've selected for each one of these plays we have 54.4 54.4 54.61 65.32 and 57.6
the average Fair odds per leg is significantly higher than 54 points we'll round up
to three percent here and this slip would be a profitable long-term slip on prize
picks now I'm not sitting here saying that this slip will hit that's not what I'm
saying at all I'm saying that the average percent odds to hit based on the market
long term these types of slips will keep you profitable remember beating apps like
prize picks is actually very easy if you use a system like daily Grand fantasy
Sports Daily Grind fantasy sports also offers seven day free trials links are in
the description now let's think about the math part right we just talked about the
two-man Powers everybody's favorite slip type to hit 57.75 of the time you have to
hit on individual legs to remain profitable but on five Flex slips you have to hit
an average bear odds percentage of 54.26 percent per leg and pretty much the same
thing for a six Flex 54.2 percent technically long-term profitability your optimal
slip type to play as long as you can find five or six plus Evie plays are five man
and six man Flex plays because again I just broke down the math based on the EV
potential that we have per leg per slip it does not make mathematical sense to play
two man powers in the long run by no means am I saying that you cannot play two man
Powers I'm saying that if you want to play the optimal way and you want to give
yourself the best bang for your buck long term you have to play five man and six
man Flex plays and again I broke down the math the best way to find all this out
and the best way to find the edges through Daily Grind fantasy sports if this video
did help please do hit that subscribe button notification Bell and of course smash
that like button for all of our educational videos with all that being said have a
great rest of your day and let's cash

how's it going guys Dustin with Daily Grind fantasy and in today's video I'm going
to be telling you why you're losing money on prize picks and by the end of the
video you should have learned how to become a profitable Sports bettor when playing
apps like prize picks and real quick before we get into the video if you guys are
not subscribed to the channel already go ahead do that right now give the video a
like while you're at it because it really does help us out we would appreciate it
all right so let's just start here I have up the prize picks MLB board when you
look at this board are you thinking that these props all of these props let's say
have a 50 50 chance to either go over or under this projection and if that's the
case you couldn't be any more wrong here let me show you let's jump over to the dgf
optimizer where I've searched Luis urius and I'm using this play just as an example
it's very easy to look at and digest for you guys so I wanted to use this one uh
Luis serious we have is over 0.5 total basis and his under of 0.5 total basis you
can see here we have the over 0.5 total bases with 53.86 percent odds to hit in the
under at 46.14 so you're probably wondering how we got this percent odds to hit let
me show you so Sports books are obviously heavily favoriting the over of 0.5 total
bases as you can see what we do is we remove the juice from those odds basically uh
what the sports book is automatically getting for for accepting your bet and then
it gives us the percent odds to hit or the fair odds percentage that the sports
book is giving this play to hit therefore it's really not a 50 50 bet so taking
into account everything Vegas knows and their million dollar models you know
they've been doing this for however long and are very profitable and set these
lines the way they do for a reason they are giving this a 53.86 or 54 chance to hit
so if you played this scenario out over a thousand times a large sample size this
should hit around 54-ish percent of the time now that you learn that let me go
ahead and tell you why you should never be placing three man bets whether it's Flex
or power on prize picks I know this might look a little intimidating with all these
numbers but I promise it's simple and I'll make it easy to understand for you guys
so the percentage that you see right here next to the slip types let me explain
what that is so for three-man Powers which is a slip type you don't want to play I
promise uh you need to be hitting your individual prop hit rates at 58.5 so you
need to get your legs right your your single leg right almost 59 of the time in
order to be profitable over the long term playing three man Powers now let's
compare that to the two best Slip types you should be playing on prize picks five
man and six man flexes so sex band flexes you need just 54.13 of the time to be
hitting your individual legs five Flex just below that 54.34 so minus 119 and minus
118 odds on those therefore if you can find props above these hit rates or these
Fair odds percentage you should be taking them every single time over on prize
picks where the payouts are set and never change uh no matter what the odds are on
sportsbooks so you would rather play a prop on prize picks that's minus 118 and
minus 119 as opposed to taking the same exact prop on the sports book at let's say
minus 155 in other words it just gives you a better bang for your buck playing this
on prize picks as opposed to the sports books now that you've learned that you can
go ahead and never play a three-man slip again now let's talk about how you're
probably using fundamental analysis fundamental analysis being that you do this
click on Jose Barrios four and a half strikeouts oh he's gone over four out of his
last five games he's for sure going over this game or how about this one this one's
my personal favorite Raphael Devers we look up all of his game logs for the last
four years and we see that he's gone over in 72 of the last 103 games versus the
Yankees dating back to 2020 or whatever you want whatever you want to do it makes
zero sense to look that up guys I literally never ever clicked this last five
button here on prize picks I'd never look up matchups and and I'm a profitable
Sports bettor why because we trust the market in the market being the sports books
that set these lines uh we we put math over feelings we don't even have to know
these players names or anything about the sport in order to become profitable the
faster you realize Vegas is smarter than you and have these million dollar models
and they've already done all this research for you you're literally wasting your
time doing fundamental analysis or playing plays because he's playing his former
team that he needs to play good against or he wants to play good against the sports
books already know this and it's baked into their lines so there you have it these
are not 50 50 props on prize picks you should stop playing three man flexes and
Powers you should be playing Five man and six man flexes over on prize picks you
need to remove your fundamental analysis put math over feelings and the best way to
go ahead and complete this strategy and tie it all together is by using the dgf
optimizer which shows you the best plus EV plays in real time it shows you
discrepancies from prize picks and sports books and all these other DFS apps we
have to offer optimizers for as well so as you can see here the top play Ryan
Howard under 17 and a half points on prize picks betno a Sportsbook has this set
the even line set to 16 and a half so you're getting a one point discrepancy over
there the next one Hunter Brown over five and a half strikeouts heavy juice on the
over of five and a half strikeouts according to all these Sports books giving it
average odds of minus 140 to go over so let the optimizer do the work for you that
will be linked in the description but that is it for today's video hopefully you
guys enjoyed if you learned something don't forget to hit the like button and uh
we'll see in the next one let's cash

I'm going to show you exactly what you need to stop doing and start doing on prize
picks if you actually want to make money if this is how you're scrolling the board
you're already putting yourself at a disadvantage oh let's see here oh popular tab
all right let's check the last five oh Anthony Edwards four out of the last five
dang and he only missed by two on this one yeah we're going to lock that in that's
definitely going to be going over it's gone over in the four last five oh Luka
donic oh oh yeah it's they got to close him out of course LCA Don is gonna go over
three and a half three-pointers made of course I know uh let's see uh Jaden Jen
okay let's check out Rudy go he is not getting 11 rebounds he hasn't done it at all
in the in this series of course he's not oh three yeah I got my three favorite
picks Boom place the entry you're already at a loss stop doing that I'm going to
tell you why and this really goes for All Sports guys if you're coming here to MLB
and you're looking at Julio Rodriguez last five boom greened out so you're going to
be taking his over just because he's greened out in the last five you're doing it
all wrong um you got to understand guys their matchups and everything is is
completely different day in and day out could be a different lineup he could be
batting behind somebody different batting in front of somebody different the
weather could take into account for this game compared to the other games U the
starting pitcher that he's going up against is not the same as what he has been
gone up against the last five games there are so many different variables in this
that make the last five not even worth looking at and if you're watching this
thinking about the NBA and how Anthony Edwards has done this in three of the four
games against Dallas same matchup not necessarily there's different injuries
there's different um rotations there's things that these coaches are adjusting
within the games of these series not every game is going to be the same it's
important to realize that guys but the people that have the best read or best um
knowledge on this right is the sports books can we all agree on that right the
Sports books are really really good at setting lines and they set these lines for a
reason they set these odds for a reason let's go over it first things first if you
think you're smarter than the sports books you need to drop the ego because I can
promise you you are not you are not smarter than their multi-million dollar
algorithms and models you do not have that type of resource in your brain I promise
so please drop the ego you're not smarter than the sports books we need to listen
to the sports books and use the market to our advantage by the market I mean the
sports books got it good you're not smarter than the sports books all right now I
can show you how to use the sports books to your advantage to find really good
plays on prize picks let's look at these two plays that I had played earlier uh
that were showing up as great plays on Daily Grind fantasy what Daily Grind fantasy
does is compar sports books lines and odds directly back to prize picks to show you
the best possible value on the board by using those Sports books and just comparing
line comparing to the market right so AE baa is listed on prize picks at 69 Strokes
right but on DraftKings and FanDuel they have this listed at 69 9 and a half so 0.5
higher than what prize piix has it and they are favoring the over at -40 and- 145
odds so if you guys don't know higher the minus number the more likely that outcome
is given by the sports books right so by taking into consideration what these
sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings have these odds at for the over and the under of
Strokes for AE baa at 69 A5 The Daily Grind Fantasy on the back end calculates what
the the sports book is giving the true chance to hit the true fair odds percentage
to hit and then it is calculated here so they are giving us a 56.99 per chance to
hit for OA baa right so a really really good play on prize picks uh getting it 0.5
uh lower and if you guys don't know you are getting this at minus 119 odds and five
and six man flexes so getting it at minus 119 so about 20 points 20 odds off from
the sports books and 05 lower a no-brainer play on prize picks all right now let's
look at a med Rosario we can see here that the under of 1 and a half total bases is
what's being shown here on Daily Grind fantasy with a true fair odds percentage of
56.3% when we remove the juice from the sports books and by the juice we mean what
the sports books are making just by us placing this bet so that's how we find the
true fair out percentage here at Daily Grind fantasy but we have multiple more data
points we have six Sports books to trust here instead of just two which usually
means we can be a little bit more confident in this play and that these Sports
books are really uh in line and in um trusting that they are correct on this
projection that AED Rosario is heavily favored to go under in a good play on prize
picks getting it at- 1119 instead of the average odds ofus 154 that all these six
different sports books are agreeing that this should be I can assure you the sports
books are not just blindly picking what odds go on what plays so you can believe me
when I say that these Sports books models are taking everything you think you know
and and can look up and research they're taking that all into consideration with
these odds uh and lines that they are setting for these plays so it's not like
we're totally ignoring the last five the last 10 the the the pitcher matchup how
this person does against right-handed uh pitchers Etc it's all being calculated
everything you think you know and more guys I promise you into these Sportsbook
models it's the smartest smartest uh models in algorithms there are um way smarter
than than your brain and what you can look up in just a second I'm going to show
you guys the math and why five and six flexes are by far the most profitable slips
playing prize picks but I want you to understand how just playing odds like this
really is profitable over the long term let's just take a look at this right let's
say we were placing a straight bet at minus 1119 which is what we are getting these
odds at on priz pick for for all of these and a five and six man Flex for these
plays that we're looking for right $100 on a minus 119 straight bet would profit
you $84 right now let's just say we we were seeing a play that we're playing on
prize picks at minus 180 on the sports books which is why we decided to take it on
prize picks instead of the sports books right the sports books are telling us it's
heavily favored and they're giving it X percentage chance to hit prize picks is
pricing atus 1119 because they're not changing your uh payout for taking the over
or the under um so we take it on prize picks at the best number right if we were to
take it at minus 180 on the sports books we would only have a total profit of $55
so almost $30 in value are we getting for just placing this on prize picks as
opposed to the sports books and the goal here is to find five or six plays that you
could put into a five or six man Flex on prize picks that have a true fair odds
percentage or odds percent to hit above 54.2 6% as you guys can see here this is
the breakdown of the math and how it proves that you will be profitable if you
follow this strategy um and guys look you need to be right on your individual legs
this is what this is showing 54.3 plus% of the time if you want to be profitable on
prize exp playing five and six man flexes and the math is just showing you right to
go five of five you're only going to do that right around 5% of the time right it's
not very very often you have to realize there's going to be plenty of losses with
playing five and six man flexes but over the long term the net profit your your um
you know your Roi over the long term playing these five and six-man flexes are far
greater than your your TW man's and your three man slips on prize picks I promise
you it works I went up 2867 units last year year in 2023 basically exclusively
playing five and six B flexes on prize pick I play some other apps as well but do
the same strategy for those apps as I do prize picks there might be some different
tweaks and some different math and slip types that you have to learn but this is a
long-term profitable strategy using plus EV betting finding plays trusting the
market on Via the sports books and finding the best value on these DFS apps that
don't change your payout for taking the over or the and don't get me wrong there's
a few things that I haven't mentioned in this video that you can look up right here
on this channel actually talking about bank roll management and how that works but
basically you really don't want to go crazy don't be putting a $200 slip uh out
there when you only have $500 in your account right this is a long-term game I told
you you're only going to win 5ish per of the time and you're going to be profitable
that way right but you need to be able to withstand losses I mentioned here there's
going to be five six s day losing streaks in a row sometimes if you have the proper
bankroll management you can get past that um but just stick to the process um I
really really uh believe that this is a super profitable strategy and I am living
proof for it so I want you guys to to really try your best to stick to the process
and give this a fair chance if you choose to do it but what did we learn we learned
to not trust our gut to not just look at the last five to make our plays but to
realize that the sports books have all of that taken into consideration when
setting these lines and odds and to use daily Grand fantasy to quickly compare
these lines and odds from the sports books back to prize picks to find the best
value right we also
learned about the math on prize picks realizing that we need to hit above 54.3
plus% of our individual legs in each uh you know on each slip to be profitable over
the long term playing those five and six-man flexes and if you do that guys you
will be profitable and I appreciate you watching this video If you guys enjoyed it
make sure you guys subscribe like this video go check out some other videos on our
channel of more betting content for prize picks and other stuff see you later

stop making stupid ridiculous bets on prize picks in this video I'm going to show
you exactly what you should be doing to make smart bets and set yourself up to win
money and profit long-term playing prize picks first things first we need to get
you out of your current mindset you don't know ball straight up you don't know ball
I'm sorry to tell you that you have to admit that to yourself right you need to
stop betting with emotions and what you think is going to happen because that is
only going to lose you money long term the faster you remove your emotions from
sports betting and start making smart bets the faster you're going to start winning
thousands of dollars playing apps like prize picks straight up you need to stop
scrolling prize picks and spamming the overs for these star players because more
often than not there is a lot more player props with value on the under than the
overs if you're scrolling prize picks and you're just looking at lines like oh Luca
dones Lin is at 25 A5 what that's way too low of course he's going to hit that and
you just enter it in on priz picks you need to stop betting or finish this video
and learn how to do it the right way now I didn't say you can do this all by
yourself you might need a little bit of help and me personally I use Daily Grind
fantasy to compare Sports books lines and odds directly back to prize picks
Underdog better all of these different DFS apps to find the best mathematical value
based on what the Sportsbook Market has comparing back to those different apps you
know what they say having the right tools for the job makes it a hell of a lot
easier right and Daily Grind fantasy is our tool being able to have all these
different sports books lines and odds in one place to easily compare back to these
DFS apps make makes it a lot easier to find profitable bets it's like having a
hammer in a screw right sure could you get that screw into a board probably with a
hammer but it would be a lot easier if you had a drill so yes could you manually
look up all these lines and odds on the sports books and compare them back to prize
picks yes however I do not suggest that it would take far too much time for you to
do that and then go ahead and play this on prize picks prize picks in all of these
different DFS apps are getting faster and faster at bumping and removing props you
cannot waste any extra time having to do that you want to be able to just scan the
market in one place just like this and then be told exactly what the best value is
and this is exactly why I told you you need to stop betting with your emotions or
scrolling through prize picks looking at the last five last 10 game logs or
spamming those star players overs and take into consideration what these Sports
books lines and odds are set at and use them as data points this could be your new
research right instead of looking up uh the last 5 10 game logs like I said or
looking up matchups how this person plays on Monday Night Football Etc all of this
is taken into consideration via the sports books lines and odds right these Sports
books are in the business of making money off of their customers and it's in their
best interest to set these lines and odds as accurately as possible to do so not
only that they have multi-million dollar algorithms and models setting these lines
for them taking everything into consideration that you think you know or can look
up again the faster you learn that you are not smarter than the sports books and
start using their own own information against them the faster you'll become a
profitable Sports Banner but before I show you how to read these lines and odds and
compare them back to prize picks you need to learn a little bit more about the math
behind the slip types you are playing on prize picks and figure out which ones you
should be playing to set yourself up for long-term profitable success and you're
probably playing a lot of two mans and three mans but you should not be doing that
let's get into it this is actually really important for you to understand here is
the breakdown for the math behind each prize pick slip type from two man Powers
down to six-man plexus I will make these very easy for you to understand and we'll
start with a Twan power for Twan powers in a 3X payout for going two of two you
need to be right on your individual legs above 57.7 plus% of the time in order to
be profitable long-term playing those slip types that means your individual player
props that you are playing you need to be hitting those at a almost a 58% clip to
be profitable long-term playing 2-an Powers freem man at 5x payout are even worse
first guys you need to be right on your individual legs above 58.5% almost 59% hit
rate is what you need to be profitable playing three man all right let's skip four
mans you can see the percentage here but let's talk about five and six-man flexes
and how they are mathematically the best Slip types to play on prize picks if you
want to be profitable long term you only need to be correct 54.2 plus% of the time
on your individual legs playing five and six man flexes to be profitable long term
that's almost a 4% difference in hit rate needed to be profitable long term when
you're comparing two and three mans and five and six man flexes why make it harder
on yourself start playing five and six man flexes and set yourself up for Success
it's way less pressure you can win 4% less of your bets but still profit more long-
term playing those slip types now how do you actually find these plays with good
value well using a tool like Daily Grind fantasy as I mentioned is the best way to
do this quickly and efficiently right let's scan the market and what do we see here
Devonte Smith under 4 and half perceptions is what's being recommended on prize
picks but why is that that's because when we scan the rest of the entire sports
book and DFS Market we see that all of these different sports books are heavily
favoring the under of 4 and a half receptions for Devonte Smith we can see that
average odds of minus 142 is what the sports books are giving this to go under so
we know that via Sports books odds that means they are favoring the under but on
prize picks in a five or six-man Flex we are getting the same play as -119 odds so
a play that the sports books are heavily favoring -42 average odds across the
market at-19 odds let's play pretend here I know prize pick is parlay but let's
pretend it's a straight bet for 1 second a $100 wager on a straight bet of minus
$119 would profit you $84 a $100 wager at minus 142 odds would profit you $72 you
would be making an extra $14 just playing this as a straight bet on prize six if
you could so you're getting a play that has eight different data points all
agreeing this should be priced around -42 odds whenever prize pick is lagging
behind the rest of the market leaving this up on their board at minus 1119 OD right
this is going to be bumped or removed very quickly because prize pick realizes that
whoever is taking the under on this player prop has an edge against them like are
you going to trust the one outlier and prize picks that has this atus 119 or the
eight different May Sports books that are all agreeing that this has a good chance
to hit the under and I'll leave a link down in the description for Daily Grind
fantasy if you want to check it out use code Dustin dgf 3 and you'll get 25% off
your very first month exactly no and that's the goal here where can we find a
sports book or DFS app that is off from the rest of the market and get the best
possible line or odds on that DFS app or Sportsbook and take advantage of them
however since we are playing prize picks we need to find five or six plays just
like this that have a long-term Edge against prize picks and play them in that five
or six leg slip type together so let's look at another one here we have Josh heart
over 13 12 rebounds plus assists being recommended via Daily Grind Fantasy on the
prize picks optimized right it has a 54.9% chance to hit remember that's good
because we need above a 54.2 plus% chance to hit so we want to find five or six
plays that have above a 54.2% chance to hit and get them into the slips so Josh
harp over 13 1 12 rebounds and assists we can see that 1 2 3 4 five books all have
this match at 13 1 12 rebounds and assists but they're all favoring the over right
however DraftKings has already bumped this up to 14 1/2 so we can see the market
the sports books are starting to agree that this should probably be set to 14 and
half because they are all favoring the over of 13 and a half and we've already seen
DraftKings bump this up to 14 and a half so there's clear value taking the over at
13 a half at the best possible odds of minus 1119 it's super clutch that Daily
Grind fantasy does all of the math from the back end to deig these Sports books
lines and find the true fair odds percentage also known as odds percent to hit and
then portrays it here so you know that longterm these plays should be hitting
around this percentage based on where these Sports books are pricing these odds
hopefully this is starting to make sense for you guys and why you should be line
comparing the sports books lines and odds directly back to priz picks to find the
best value and if it's not maybe a real world example will help you right think
about it like this if you were buying your dream car and it's around $50,000 on
every single uh lot right that you're coming across for these dealerships you were
able to find it at $45,000 at a specific dealership you would be out of your mind
to go to one of those other ones and buy it for $50,000 you would of course go to
where you can get it the cheapest price at $45,000 then you are creating yourself
$5,000 in profit or savings you literally do this all the time in your everyday
life like if there's two gas stations right next
to each other and one is 5 cents cheaper per gallon which one are you going to go
to obviously the cheaper one right you do this every single day in real life so
start doing it in sports betting I promise it's going to create a profit for you
long term so not only can you easily compare lines and odds using the Daily Grind
fantasy optimizers as you see here but they actually have something called The
Daily Grind fantasy AI slip generator and what this does is it Compares sports book
lines and odds for you using AI line comparing technology and then it will build
Out full slips for you to Simply tail and it's up over 2,000 plus units since it
launched on 818 of 2023 but you can see here it has all these different slips for
you to Simply enter that it's spitting out Thea line comparing and as you can see
here it's Underdog rebet fliff um you see there's no prize pick slips at the moment
that's just because the value isn't good enough right now via comparing those
Sports books lines and odds back to prize picks to build out a full profitable slip
it's only going to spit out slips that have long-term profitability so a prize pick
slip actually just popped up and I want to show you why it's so clutch to have the
AI slip generator especially for prize picks as you can see here it has a bet on
prize pick button that will allow you to load this slip up with one click of a
button on prize pick and all you do is enter in the amount you would like to play
and it's that easy to submit a lineup that has long-term profitable value via line
comparing on the AI slip generator this allows you to cut out manually entering
this slip beating the bumps more often than not the goal here is to find five or
six plays that have an edge against prize picks via line comparing and play them
together in those profitable slip types five and six man flexes and over the long
term if you consistently get down as much volume as you can doing this strategy you
are going to create profit and be a profitable Sports better playing prize picks
this is literally a proven long-term profitable sports betting strategy and you
need to be doing it goodbye betting with the last five game logs and betting with
your gut hello plus EV betting and Lon could pairing but that's going to be it for
this video hopefully you guys learned something and enjoyed it if you did make sure
you drop a like And subscribe if you're not subscribed already we Post sports
betting content like this every single week

how's it going guys Dustin at Daily Grind fantasy and in today's video I'm hoping
to make your light bulb go off and realize why plus EV betting is such a profitable
strategy on apps like prize picks and other sports betting apps let's start with
the basics what is plus EV betting plus EV betting is a concept in sports betting
that involves making bets that are statistically expected to be profitable in the
long run right the basic idea is to identify situations where the potential return
on a bet is higher than the risk or cost of that bet basically just profitable
sports betting guys look I know looking at a bunch of odds on a screen and me
throwing a Million numbers at you is sometimes not the best way to learn so I
wanted to break it down in real world examples to you guys and hopefully make you
guys understand why plus EV betting is so profitable I promise you already do
everything I'm about to mention in everyday life but we're going to connect it to
sports betting all right let's go car shopping right what do we do first whenever
we're car shopping we find the car we want and then from there we find where can we
get this car the cheapest at any of the dealerships near us right so that's exactly
what we're doing here in this example we're going car shopping we look here we find
what our price would be at each dealership right we find oh dealership C is going
to give us the same car at $259 compared to the rest of the market that has this
closer to right 27 or even higher at 29 28 we'd be out of our minds to not go to
car dealership C and purchase our car all right let's take our brand new car
grocery shopping when we're going grocery shopping you probably want want to get
the best bang for your buck right if you have Aldi Walmart Stop and Shop all in the
same vicinity right and you know that something you want is on sale or BOGO at
Walmart why would you go to stop and shop and buy it at full price you wouldn't
right of course you wouldn't You' head to Walmart get the cheapest SL best deal
possible Right makes sense we all do this we all want to save money all right we
probably should have bought our house before we bought our groceries to put into
our house but still let's keep moving all right buying a house what do you look for
with buying a house you weigh the pros and cons of a house neighborhood schools Etc
you want the best house you can get for the best price right for example let's just
say all these homes are basically identical which one are you going to buy right
you're on the same street you're zoned for the same schools Etc you can get this
one for 265 when the rest of them are at 315 320 uh and so on right it just makes
sense and that's assuming these houses were basically the same I know there could
be cosmetic Dam or something in this example but you get what I'm saying here
coupons let's talk coupons you tell me me your buddy your pal right that you are
going to Bed Bath and Beyond and I'm like here here's a 20% off coupon what are you
going to do use it or not use it right of course you're going to use it you want to
save money so you're going to use your 20% off coupon it's the same thing with
prize picks Taco Tuesday or these betting promos where you're getting better lines
or odds whatever it might be you're wanting to play all the promos right it's like
a coupon basically they they are discounting LeBron's points 20% right or whatever
it might be from 27/2 to 23 1/2 22 1/2 it's long-term a really really smart bet to
go ahead and play these promos it's basically free money over the long term now
what do these real world examples have in common you save money getting the best
price for your stuff you're already buying in real life creates hidden profits
let's say your savings account right so why wouldn't you do this and help yourself
become a profitable Sports better on apps like prize picks or these Sports books
now let's connect the dots from those real world examples to sports betting and
show you how this actually works when sports betting right for instance by
comparing lines and odds from Sports books and DFS apps we could see that Adam and
reate was listed at one and a half shots on goal but the odds are different right
the amount you can win uh can be greater depending on where you play this prop
right so the sports books average Market is minus 147 right all of these Sports
books have them at minus 147 to go over one and a half shots on goal right but
where can you get the best bang for your buck where can you save a little money
where can you create a little profit right let's look into it now what if I told
you you can get this at -119 in a prize piix five or six man Flex you can and you
do right it's going to be the best bang for your buck in this situation right we
scanned the market average odds was -47 we can get it at -119 we'd want to play it
on prize pick but let's pretend this is a straight bet because prize pick you know
is a parlay so let's pretend it's a straight bet we put $100 on a minus 147 odds
BET right our profit would be $683 and then if we bet the same amount $100 on a
minus 1119 odds bet we' profit $843 $16 more in Profit just because we found where
we can get the best bang for our buck right just like the grocery shopping we went
to Walmart because it would be cheaper just like car dealership C we went to car
dealership C because it's the cheapest right we wanted to save money or in this
case bump up our profits where can we get or make the most money and all we simply
did was just follow the market we've seen that the market right it could have been
the car dealerships it could have been the the grocery stores setting the prices
for these certain items right it's the same thing here in sports betting the market
is setting this at minus 147 right so it should not be priced anywhere atus 1119
because the market is telling you this has a very good chance to hit the old over
but you can get it way cheaper here right or you're getting the same car at this
dealership that you're getting here but way cheaper right absolutely insane and you
should be Connecting the Dots here and and start putting this into your sports
betting strategy my Kelly Blue Book or my car comparison uh tool would be Daily
Grind fantasy right where can I compare everything in one place compare Sports
books lines and odds directly back to prize picks and these other DFS apps like
Underdog parlay play that I play and C create profit right where can I find the
best bang for my buck in one spot quickly and efficiently right cuz you have to be
quick in order to beat the market the Sportsbook Market is a little bit faster than
the car market right they can bump and change these odds or lines pretty quick so
you have to be fast and compare them fast if you don't have them all up in front of
you at one time it makes it really hard to go ahead and get these in and beat the
bumps it really makes it super simple to line compare and find the best bang for
our buck like lay a knack right here under 15 1 12 pitching outs average odds of
minus 145 across these three Sports books we know that we can get it on prize picks
in a five or six man Flex at minus 1119 so we are getting a play that is given by
the sports books a 54.8% chance to hit at the best possible number of minus 119 but
in order for us to actually have a profitable slip on prize picks we need to find
five or six of these and get them into the same slip so I would literally plug and
play these top few plays so Christian Walker over 6 and a half fantasy score Landon
nak under 15 a half pitching outs and so on so forth straight down the line we need
to be correct 54.3 plus% of the time in five and six man flexes to be profitable
over the long term so that means we need to have our average Fair odds percentage
or odds percent to hit to be above 54.3 plus per so although we have three plays
that are above that 54.3 we're able to dip down to Lively to toppin to PJ
Washington if we wanted to and get in these plays because our average Fair outs
percentage is still going to be above 54.3 plus per. so it's still going to be a
profitable play over the long term on prize pick I will leave a link in the
description to Daily Grind fantasy if you guys wanted to check it out but please
comment below if this video helped you guys connect the dots from those real world
examples to to sports betting and really opened up your eyes how plus EV betting is
profitable over the long term also if you guys haven't liked the video already drop
a like on the video subscribe if you're not subscribed and we will see you guys in
the next one

how's it going guys Dustin at Daily Grind fantasy and in today's video we're going
to be talking about how to attack NFL props this upcoming season before we get into
it if you guys are not subscribed to the channel already go ahead and hit the
Subscribe button hit the like button while you're at it because it really does help
us out we would appreciate it if you guys remember last year we basically had prize
picks and Underdog for NFL season now we have a bunch of new DFS apps that are
going to have NFL and I'm super excited about it because they're gonna have to
adjust they're gonna have to get with prize picks get with Underdog on all these
new um stats that they're gonna come out with like end of last year prize picks had
punts they had combo squares these DFS apps are gonna have to follow suit if they
don't want to get left behind the more NFL categories to bet on the better right
we're able to compare um lines for pass yards rush yards anything like that why
can't we compare for punts if one app has a guy set to three and a half punts and
the other app has it set to four let's take advantage of that so yeah that's one of
the things that's got me most pumped up about the NFL season just being able to
line shop across all of these apps so make sure you guys have every app that you
can download in your state downloaded and ready to go for NFL season use code dgf
on all of these DFS apps like parlay play jock market price picks Underdog for 100
deposit match up to 100 so there you have it line shopping is going to be important
in betting NFL this season now what's next we need to be able to compare these
lines from dfsf to dfsf and DFS app to sportsbooks and we're going to do that by
using the Daily Grind fantasy Optimizer and middling tool during the NFL season as
you guys can see up here on the screen this is NFL pre-season prop so there are
some discrepancies prize picks at 25 and a half Underdog at 22 and a half for
receiving yards on Charlie Jones but during the regular NFL season we are going to
see large discrepancies like we did last year and you have to remember these DFS
apps are setting lines independently so price picks sets their line Underdog sets
their line we could see um a discrepancy between those two but then also Sports
books come out they set their line right oftentimes these Sports books are really
really sharp in comparison to these DFS apps that's why we're taking advantage on
these DFS apps think about it price or uh DraftKings FanDuel and Batman GM you're
never gonna see them 25 yards difference of each other but compared to these DFS
apps you can see a 25 yard difference on price picks in the sports books so you'd
want to take it over on prize picks and get that better number if let's say Charlie
Jones is at 25 and a half on prize picks but the sports book lines come out right
and he's set to uh 38 and a half you're going to want to hit the over on prize
picks uh in comparison to the sports books because they're quite literally telling
you if DraftKings FanDuel and embed MGM are all set at that 20 uh 38 and a half
they're quite literally telling you that that's what it should be and price fixes
off so you want to take advantage of it and good news the optimizer literally
updates every single second so as soon as props go up on prize picks Underdog or
when Sports books drop their odds this updates and catches the best plus EB plays
possible at that time so like we always say the more you can refresh the optimizer
the better but now our first NFL season with notifications you can literally click
the notification Bell create your notifications for whatever app whatever
percentage you want it to email you your notifications so whenever a 54 play pops
up or a 58 play whatever you have it set to it's literally going to kick you an
email notification to go ahead and get it in so now there's no excuses you
shouldn't be missing these props during the NFL season and now I want to show you
guys a couple examples from last NFL season to get you excited for this year and
what you guys can actually find when hunting these discrepancies and comparing
price picks lines to sportsbooks lines and other DFS apps now I know the optimizer
looks a little different because that was last year but now it has upgraded and
looks amazing but go with me for this example Marcus Mariota was posted on the
prize picks board at 13 completions sportsbooks line came out 13 and a half is what
they had it set to with -130 juice basically across the sports books even Pinnacle
at -164. so you get a 0.5 discrepancy see and the less aggressive line on prize
picks so you'd want to hit the over on prize picks because they were clearly off in
this scenario whenever all of these Sports books you see here had their line set to
13 and a half with juice on the overall ready and here's another example this time
pass yards Mac Jones was posted on the prize picks board at 210.5 pass yards but
then FanDuel and their million dollar models came out and their line was set to 224
and a half a 14-yard discrepancy so therefore we wanted to take the over on prize
picks at this less aggressive number and looks like FanDuel that was their even
line but giving this a 58.67 odds to hit that's extremely good in a prize picks
five Flex where you're looking for just average odds on your individual legs in a
five pick Flex of 54.34 and now for my last example Jared Goff was posted on the
prize pick sport at 22 and a half passing completions however when the sports books
came out they also posted it at 22 and a half past completions so no discrepancy
there as far as that goes but the real discrepancy comes in the odds and the odds
that you get it out on prize picks compared to what the sports books are giving
this play so they are giving this play minus 176 minus 155 minus 163 all really
heavy juice on the under of 22 and a half past completions and a 60.52 odds to hit
when playing this on prize picks you're getting this uh minus 160 minus 176 play on
uh prize picks at -119 implied odds in a 5 pick Flex that's just insane value you
guys can probably see a trend here we're looking for inefficiencies in the market
if price picks has Patrick Mahomes line set to 250 pass yards but then eight Sports
books come out and have it set at 275 pass yards that's a 25-yard discrepancy and
it's very clear that price picks is off when you have eight other data points
telling you it should be much higher at 275. it's literally that simple to find
profitable plays on prize picks during the NFL season so now you know what you're
looking for use the optimizer to quickly and efficiently find these plays and get
them in before the bumps I went ahead and put a link in the description below for
seven day free trials to the dgf optimizer and tools if you guys want to check it
out for yourself see what I'm talking about get ready for NFL season go ahead click
the link below and get started if you made it this far in the video I want to hear
from you comment down below who you think is winning the Super Bowl this season
also while you're there hit the Subscribe button hit the like button if you enjoyed
this video and go check out our other videos across this channel where we teach
more about plus EV betting and how to be profitable on prize picks

football season is here and it's time to lock the in and learn how to win money
playing prize picks for NFL in college football in 20124 but seriously I'm going to
show you guys exactly what you need to be doing in order to profit this season
playing college football in NFL and just to show you guys I am not bsing and that I
do everything I am telling you guys and it actually works for long-term profit you
guys can see here in 2023 I was up 276 plus units and then in 2024 as of right now
821 me filming this video I am up 193 units this year what I do is called plus EV
betting and plus EV betting is simply a profitable betting strategy that is
mathematically proven to help you win money over the long term by line comparing
and shopping your odds across the market right DFS apps Sports books Etc where can
you gain an edge and take advantage of a line that is off when comparing to the
rest of that market I'm about to show you guys exactly what to look for and how to
find these mathematically profitable bets that have an edge against prize picks to
help you win long term how about we play a little game along the way take a drink
for every time you hear me say the words longterm you might be hammered by the end
of this video but really it is important for you guys to realize this is not a get-
rich quick scheme you're not going to hit every slip this is a longterm game take a
drink I do want to emphasize the importance of that because outside of just finding
good plays on prize picks or any other DFS app you need to be able to manage your
bank roll and not just go crazy throwing $100 on a six leg parlay that's never the
answer right you want to be able to stay within your means that way you can play as
many possible slips that you can because volume is King when plus EV betting right
if you have a $500 bank roll you should only be playing $5 a slip no more than that
because you want to be able to withstand variance if you were to go on a losing
streak you want to stay in the game as long as possible because if you stick to
this method that long over the long term then you will be profitable in the long
term it might have some negative stretches but you are going to see some positive
variant as well this might come as a shock to some of you guys but five and six man
slips are mathematically proven to be the most profitable slip types over the long
term you only need to be right on your individual legs 54.3 plus% of the time in
order to be a winner over the longterm playing those slip types as opposed to like
two mans you need to be correct on your individual legs 58 plus% of the time in
order to be profitable playing those long term those are key things to implement
when plusy be betting but now let's get into the real stuff the examples of what to
be looking for when finding value in college football and NFL first things first I
use Daily Grind fantasy to quickly and efficiently line compare Sports books back
to DFS apps like prize picks it's super clutch because in real time it shows you
all the lines odds and data from the sports books in one place at one time and then
on the backend does all the math and spits out the most profitable plays and their
odds percent to hit um that you guys can see here so in those five and six man
slips we need to be hitting above 54.3 plus% of the time so we need to make sure
our average for that slip is above 54.3 plus% that way we know mathematically that
slip is going to be profitable over the long term now we're going to get into some
real examples from last year and exactly what you guys should be looking for for
college football and NFL but I'll leave a link to Daily Grind fantasy in the
description below you guys can use codee Dustin for 25% off I'm going to be using
my Twitter to show you guys these examples from last year but here's one that I
tweeted Out CD lamb over six and a half receptions for turkey day right a
Thanksgiving Day uh prop CD lamb was listed at seven and a half receptions on
basically every sports book right we got it on prize picks one full reception lower
at 6 and a half you can see here we were using Daily Grind fantasy we' seen that
all of the sports books had it s and a half s and a half 7 and a half seven and a
half one sports book bet ESPN bet uh had it 6 and a half minus 200 so very heavily
favored over 6 and a half which means it should have been at 7 and a half probably
but we got it at 6 and A2 at minus 1119 odds in a six pick Flex on priz picks so
really really good value when comparing to the rest of the market you could see
priz picks was well off in their projection and the odds you were getting it at
because they are a set payout platform and always give you it minus 119 in those
five and six B flexes you can even middle some of these projections that have large
discrepancies on these DFS apps look at this one chevin Cordo was listed at 264.50
pass yards on prize picks but came in on Underdog at 2222.5 a 42 yard difference
now it's not often you will see FanDuel or DraftKings have a difference like that
for passing yards with QBs um across their their apps right however these DFS apps
have a little bit less money in models and projections um to put into their app
than those Sports books so sometimes they can be a bit off and if we don't have any
uh Sports books lines to go off of all we have are these two different data points
you have a 42 yard difference you can take the over on Underdog at 22 a half the
under on prize piix at 264 a half and give yourself a really good percentage chance
to win both of those bets and this folks is the example of a perfect middle take it
away past me in my last prize piix Tik Tok I told you to do this USC quarterback
Caleb Williams came in on prize picks at 27.5 pass yards but was 305.5 on Underdog
a discrepancy of 35 yards therefore you should middle this take the over of 270 on
prize picks and the under of 305.5 on Underdog and if he lands in the middle you
win both bets good news if you listen to me Caleb Williams ended at 278 pass yards
cashing both bets this is going to be happening all college football season and
I'll be using the Daily Grind fantasy Optimizer to find these discrepancies and get
I'm telling you guys it's the way if there is that big of a discrepancy now
remember you want to find five or six of these plays like I'm showing you right now
that have an edge against prize picks and get them into slips together here's
another crazy example and I want you guys to follow the data with me right you see
here Xavier Worthy on Underdog was set to six receptions right however if we follow
the data like I mentioned and we see FanDuel they're set to 4 and A2 and then fliff
set to 5 A2 every single other data point is telling us this should be lower than
six it seems that Underdog is too high in their projection of six so you want to
take advantage of it and take the under on Underdog as always more data points the
better however if there is one data point and you trust that data point comparing
to Underdog or prize picks then that's up to you and you can go for it look at this
one Cornelius Johnson over two and a half receptions on Underdog right is what is
being recommended because on fliff a sports book has this at 2 and a half so the
same line but minus 195 odds to the over so heavily favoring the over to happen
however on Underdog you can get this atus 16 odds in a six pick Flex slip same
thing with Coulson levelin here you can see this was set to two and a half on
Underdog but fliff has the actual line set to three and a half one full reception
higher that moves the needle a lot here's two more examples on Underdog Ricky piol
set to 5 and a half on Underdog but 6 and A2 on FanDuel and then minus 140 juice on
barol Sportsbook over 5 A2 and then fliff has it Min - 145 for over 5 A2 so sure
we're getting at 5 A2 but all signs point to all of these data points favoring the
over a 5 and A2 and even FanDuel saying it should be set to 6 and A2 we get it at 5
A2 at minus 16 odds in a six pick Flex right Jeremiah Hunter four and a half on
Underdog four and a half on barcel sports book four and a half on flip but heavily
favoring the over we're getting the best possible odds at minus 116 and finally our
first plus EV play of the 2024 college football season Jamal Haynes over 72 a half
rush yards I tweeted this out just yesterday and guys the line is already moving
because prize pick was off prize pick set it to 72 A5 uh Caesars comes in 782
Underdog came in matched the rest of the market 78 half and then fliff has this one
lower but 77 a half with juice to the over of 772 we see prize pick is about six
yards lower than the rest of the market so we wanted to take advantage of it and if
we go here and we look at what prize picks has this line set to we can see that it
is set two it's not going to let us see it but it was last at 78 and a half uh
rushing yards on prize picks when I just looked before I started filming this video
this isn't the most up-to-date line movement like I was trying to show you guys but
right after I had posted it this line started to move you can see they moved it
from 72 a half like we got it at to 75 A5 but why because prize picks realized that
comparing to the rest of the market they are off and we are now getting a play that
has an edge against them so they had to do something about it so they bumped it
there you guys have it there's a bunch of examples on exactly what you should be
looking for and how to find it using Daily Grind fantasy if you guys would like to
use Daily Grind fantasy um but if using the optimizer to manually do it yourself to
to sort out the the data that's in front of you is not for you and you don't have
enough time to do that then put your hands up and let AI take over Daily Grind
fantasy has an AI slip generator that will manually line compare on the back
end using AI for you it will find the best possible plays the best possible
correlation Dodge negative correlation and build Out full slips just like this for
you to tail all you have to do is click this button it will take you to prize picks
load up the slip in priz picks for you you just enter in the amount you want to
play and play it it's that simple and it's extremely profitable right it does plus
EV betting uh by building full slips for you and since 818 it is up over 1,500
units uh it's free on the website to go ahead and look at the chart here but if you
guys want access to that you can also use code Dustin and get 25% off uh the AI
slip generator as well or the optimizers whatever suits you guys the best they are
both profitable options one you have to do manually kind of yourself by building
out those slips the other does it for you but it's all about volume make sure you
guys are getting these slips in and uh make sure you stick to plus EV plays only
that are profitable over the long term the AI slip generator really is crazy though
look at all the value that was up on this day whenever I took this screenshot you
can see a bunch of Underdog value some prize pick slips on there as well and guys
it absolutely Cooks you can see here uh this was the slip that spit out this is the
slip that hit same thing here $1,250 winner um using Esports uh Olympic basketball
and baseball NFL season and college ball season added into this is about to go
crazy that's going to be it for this video make sure you guys smash the like button
on the way out and subscribe if you're not subscribed already we Post sports
betting content like this every single day

this betting strategy offers massive results from Tiny stakes and stacks the odds
in your favor imagine securing 638 in potential profit from 25 piece Stakes knowing
that mathematically you're destined to win sound too good to be true it happens
every day so in this video I'll show you exactly how and why is possible by the end
we'll have broken down the strategy using a real world example highlighted where
and when is best used and looked at some results quite literally anyone can do it
but also what happens if this strategy goes wrong hang in there because we'll cover
it all now I'll walk you through this betting strategy and place some bets as an
example so that everyone understands but first I need to give some context the
lucky 15 is a type of accumulator bet that can be used on multiple sporting events
such as football horse racing or Greyhounds it consists of four selections divided
into several bets four singles six doubles four trebles and one fourfold
accumulator alog together this makes 15 individual bets giving the BET its name
lucky 15 however if you're placing a lucky 15 bet on horse racing alone there's an
extra option that you can see here with my example bet I placed it this morning
I'll get to the results in a minute but making the bet each way means that it makes
all bets within the lucky 15 each way for those unaware and each way bet is a bet
on both the horse winning and or being placed so instead of 15 bets it means
there's now 30 different betting lines on the slip doubling our stake now this is
important stuff because this strategy focuses on a unique exploit within this
particular bet type to get maximum profit from minimum Stakes we must Source the
right betting selections to put on our bet slip in the past it's taken me a lot of
time to find them but we've in this example I did it in just seconds because I took
a shortcut with the help of today's sponsor value betting by odds monkey their
lucky finder to sourced all of the bets and crunched numbers for me in just a
single click it's not just me though since release their users have recorded a
12.44% return on investment using it combined all of these new tools that they've
just released have bashed The Bookies for a 16% return to put that into context
sing £25 per bet on just 10 bets per month covers the cost of an early bird
membership for the entire year but it won't be available for long they've told me
that the 449 price is a one-time offer that will never return on the 1st of
December the annual membership doubles to £999 per year so if we look at my example
bet slip four of the horses have been selected using decimal odds sisters in the
sky at 3.75 in a 308 Pho at 5.5 in 323 Pina Rossa at 7.0 in the 358 and star of du
buy at 9.0 in the six p.m. now the overalls for the lucky 15 are 2552 to1 with an
expected value percentage of 11 15.1% now expected value simply means the average
amount we would expect to win or lose per bet over the long term based on
probability so this means mathematically there's a value margin of 15.1% in our
favor on this bet for Clarity on average this bet is expected to pay out 9637 more
than it's truly worth however if you look at the individual expected values via the
value betting software we can see that the expected values on the place portions of
this bet are significantly higher than the BET's total average this happens because
the software is selecting bets where the betting odds and place terms for that
particular race have created a mathematical advantage to the player so why is this
significant well first of all there's a lot more chance of a horse placing so
there's more chance of a winner but secondly there's an increased chance of winning
a strong value margin when the horse does place for those who aren't familiar with
the concept of value betting getting real mathematical value from a bet is all that
matters it means to identify odds where the payout exceeds the probability of the
event happening just like a bookmaker we can't predict the future short-term
results will fluctuate however if we bear at Value over an extended period the math
is proven we are guaranteed to win now this strategy works in the same way that a
bookmaker does when they offer poor value ODS except it's flipped the whole
situation on its head working in our favor instead and The Bookies absolutely hate
it but there's a way to avoid being noticed by them I'll explain how in a moment
historically bookies love accumulator style bets because each bad value selection
is Multiplied against each other to create a really bad value accumulator which of
course course means more profit for them as a clear example if we were to take a
four-fold betar where the bookmaker odds offer a 96% payout with a 4% margin in
their favor the total payout percentage for the fourfold becomes just 84.9%
drastically less than the 100% it's truly worth but as you can see with my bets in
this example the good value that has been identified is Multiplied against each
other creating even more value for our bet whilst creating a potential for a big
payout now before I dive into the results I want to address the biggest obstacles
with this strategy first when is the best time to use this betting strategy now I
place my example bet around 10:00 a.m. because typically between 10:00 a.m. and
12:00 noon is the best time to place these bets why because this is when there's
the most value left on the table of The Bookies it's that sweet spot where the
bookies are actively adjusting odds to balance their books overnight bets and early
morning activity leave gaps in liquidity where a lot of the odds don't reflect the
true probabilities by midm morning though there's enough money coming into the
marketplace for bet and prices to start correcting and provide quality data but not
so much that all the value is gone for these reasons it's really the easiest time
to find Value now we could try and find these value bets without any software but
in order to do it we' need to understand all of the variables that contribute to a
value each way selection pick four good ones ahead of time and then do the relevant
maths really quickly in the past I've done it without value betting tools like this
and the process becomes a logistical nightmare because you'd need to compare the
ODS across multiple book makers analyze each horse's win probability and factor in
the play terms for that particular race for each selection and then cross check all
four market prices and get the bet on without the odds changing I won't dive into
how the process is done now because it becomes confusing really quite quickly even
the most experienced better find it difficult and that's why these tools are
invaluable they save time reduce human error ensure that the slip is optimized for
value and allow anyone to do it just look at some of the early bird results from
other users the second big problem is State restrictions and getting bookies to
take bets that they initially advertise already I know there will be comments about
this down below so let's tackle this one head on bookmakers monitor accounts
closely for consistent winners however placing smaller bets and spreading them
across multiple book makers to minimize the risk of detection is a good idea focus
on consistency because short-term fluctuations are normal the long-term Edge is
where this strategy shines one tip for placing value lucky 15s is to do it in shop
the till star are clueless they wouldn't know a value bet on a lucky 15 if hit them
Square in the face with the software in a browser on your phone is simple now if
you're betting online as with any other value betting there's a chance that the
account may get restricted but honestly what's the point in wasting time to
preserve an account where you're only allowed to lose my advice would be to lock in
the value and move on so finally let's look at the final results for my lucky 15
example with an eway lucky 15 staking 25 P per line my total stake was £750 the
potential payout if all four of the selections won was £ 63817 9637 more than the
BET was true really worth however I had no such luck on this occasion sisters in
the sky came fourth and Pina Rossa came second so the win portion of their bets
lost although the place part won now fso came first meaning that both the win and
place won and star of du buy was a flop coming in forth so on this occasion we made
a minor profit of £740 although realistically it doesn't matter we still had a
great value bet that beat the market by 15.1% and the maths don't lie this strategy
really works over the long term if the simulation was rerun we would win far more
than we lose just like the three other tools that are available with value beted
membership you can check them out fully in the next video here

football betting strategies that actually work

are quite rare but in this video I'm revealing not one but three powerful
strategies that
have been proven to cut through emotional Market reactions capitalize on gameplay
and exploit hidden shifts that many don't even realize are there each strategy is
logical
with a defined Advantage as you'll see in just a second so there's no guesswork no
gimmicks just
actionable steps that anyone can apply instantly so stick with me as I break down
exactly
how these strategies work where to use them how to execute and manage their
advantage so if
you find this video useful please don't forget to tap the Subscribe button down
below so this
first approach is perfect for those high stakes moments when emotions are running
High and the
market reacts dramatically to events that may not have a Las impact on the game so
imagine this
a team scores a sudden goal and within seconds the market reacts as bettors rush
around to adjust
their positions now this wave of activity creates a brief window where with the
right timing you
can actually bet with minimal risk and then cash out for a quick profitable lowrisk
correction
now the strategy itself minimizes risk whilst offering a profit because we're
betting during
an artificial price movement not a true shift in the game's fundamentals now as the
game continues
the score alone doesn't dictate everything players strategies fatigue and match
Tempo play a huge
role which usually balance out these reactions now when you take a advantage of
this correction
you're aligning with the natural EB and flow of the game rather than making a
highly speculative
short-term emotional bet now I'll show you an example where you can spot these
opportunities
but so everyone will understand I need to make a brief distinction to do this you
need to use
a betting exchange because soft bookmakers like bet 365 have such huge margins
built into
their betting odds now for those unaware a betting exchange allows users to bet
against each
other with no margin factored into those odds instead of offering poor prices they
make their
money by taking a small Commission on winning bets only so to them it doesn't
matter what the
price is or if you've got a winning strategy it's also why they don't ban or
restrict winning
accounts now in this instance I'll be using bet ages sharpex exchange for the
examples always
check the relevant terms and regulations where you are now this strategy is
reliable because in
football betting there's always a mix of rational and emotional bettors especially
when it comes
to Inplay betting for a lot of people tensions are high and emotion is at its peak
if you've ever
chased a loss you'll know exactly what I mean now players tend to overreact to high
impact events
like a sudden goal or a star player being subbed off now Market psychology plays a
huge role here
because many bettors subconsciously assume that a goal instantly shifts A team's
chance of winning
some rush into place a bet immediately whereas others cash out however temporarily
this doesn't
reflect the game's actual Flow by understanding these irrational moments of
overreaction we can
then take advantage of biases in the betting now placing a well time bet offers us
a lowrisk high
reward opportunity I'll show you how to capitalize on it in just a second but first
where and when
is the best place to do this sharp sudden odds changes especially after impactful
moments like a
goal substitution or red card will always be the best place for it especially when
there's more of
a shock for those who are watching for instance when the underdog scores first the
market tends to
overestimate their chances of holding on to that lead even more than if the
favorite team scores
the match odds and under overg goals markets are the most profitable because
there's so much more
money passing through them now personally I like 2.5 goals Market as statistically
most games
finish around that score line the odds range that we use this betting strategy at
doesn't
really matter though instead we want to get a bet on that the Market's Peak
reaction before
the price then naturally corrects itself back to where it should be okay so let's
look at
some practical execution here on the screen with this strategy we're looking to lay
the team
that just scored just after the betting Market overreact in simple terms laying
means betting
against the team in this case the team that just scored so if they don't win you
profit the lay
bet box on sharpex is here in pink now the key here is timing just look at this
chart after
a goal went in the price overreacts it Peaks here which is where the strategy kicks
in with
the initial lay bet within 20 to 30 seconds or so after the overreaction has peaked
the betting
Market begins to correct itself back by entering at this peak reaction we've locked
in some value
here because one of two things can happen either a we cash out our lay bet to lock
in a really
lowrisk profit in seconds or B we can hold on to it for a moment to see if there's
an aggressive
Counterattack from the opposing team because if there is the inlay betting price
will move further
in our favor giving us a bigger cash out figure in the absolute best case the
opposing team counter
and score and if that happens we're looking at a huge profit because the price will
go all the
way back to where it was prior to the very first goal and let's be honest those
counterattacks do
happen pretty regular by leveraging this moment of overreaction we're grabbing some
value and
giving ourselves an opportunity to win bigger whilst minimizing the risk this is
what all
good actionable strategy is all about just like the second strategy I'll share just
now now
if you're finding this useful please don't forget to subscribe for future strategy
uploads in play
betting markets reflect the real-time dynamics of the match if you've ever looked
at the price
history as a match goes on you'll know what I mean as the clock ticks down towards
the end of
a match betting odds contract or lengthen in line with the expected result as the
match goes on
this is known as time Decay it's a data pattern that happens in every match match
in the second
half of a match time Decay accelerates you'll see what that's significant in just a
second for
this strategy in play game analysis betting Market psychology and time Decay work
hand inand to help
us secure a profitable Advantage it focuses on low action moments where the teams
hold in possession
playing conservatively and no goals are likely to be scored we must avoid betting
markets with a
match is competitive or both teams are taking risks on the pitch I'll break down
the best place
to use it shortly but once we've identified our safest area it's time to execute we
place a back
bet or lay bet in line with the current outcome so for example if we're betting on
the under
over 2.5 goals market and there's currently only one goal we place a back bet that
there will
be under 2.5 goals now as time passes the chance of our bet winning increases so
the betting
odds have to shorten with the Decay working in our favor but there's a potential
problem here
because if a key player is injured or there's a sudden tactical shift the price
action May stall
absolutely worst case if there's a shot goal the price will move against us so the
aim here is to
exploit the Inplay cash out for a profit whilst either the play is extremely dull
or there's
clearly no motivation on Pitch to score key indicators include frequent back
passing limited
movement in the final third and teams being content to play out the clock I'm sure
you've
seen this happen before because these conditions are common in the late stages of
the first half
especially when one team is protecting a lead now a top tip is to keep an eye on
possession
percentages when one team is controlling the game without launching an attack now
in the second half
inlay price Decay happens faster so it's possible to make more quicker as long as
you stay aware of
the game's pace and watch for shifts this is one of the most Dependable ways to
profit from time
Decay using this strategy you're not just betting on the game you're betting on the
natural erosion
of a Gold's probability it's a disciplined way to profit from in play betting
without getting caught
up in the hype of sudden Market shifts now finally the third and lowest risk
betting strategy of
all in fact in some situations there's barely any risk at all and you can use very
large Stakes
because by keeping one step ahead of the broader public we can capitalize on
valuable information
as it develops huge professional gamblers like Tony Bloom focus on on this sort of
thing because
effectively we're betting on immediate factual changes rather than speculative
opinion we're not
trying to predict what might happen but rather reacting to a linked interest that
already has
this works because thousands of football betting markets are linked by probability
for instance
if a star player is suddenly subbed out due to injury this will impact not just the
match odds
but linked betting markets such as next week's match similarly tactical adjustments
red cards or
critical fouls influence multiple bets at the same time by being quick to act on
the most recent news
our strategy locks in a profit before the entire Marketplace has caught on however
to make this
work we need to be waiting in anticipation for example if a primary goal scorer is
badly injured
during a match this week then the odds for next week's match needs to adjust too
now typically
there's a short window before these effects are fully priced into every related
Market the most
extreme example I can think of is when Christian Erikson had a heart attack on
Pitch once again
timing is everything by placing your bets in these secondary markets as soon as the
change occurs
you're often ahead of the crowd another great exploit is team news when the
starting line up
for a match is released it can have a huge impact on the odds to get a value bet
with this strategy
all you need to do is react quickly and then cash out once the price has corrected
now if that was
too much and you want a far simpler strategies follow then check out this video
here in the end
screen after you've subscribed thanks for watching

these are seven Pro gamblers who actually beat

sports betting markets for insane amounts of money you won't have heard of some of
them because
they're so secretive but their strategies are genius and unique with all of them
thinking
well outside of the box so if you're into sports betting then this is going to be a
must watch
first up is Tony Bloom the now owner and majority shareholder of Brighton football
club however what
the masses don't realize is this guy's billion dollar valuation has been built
entirely on sports
betting in particular via football now Bloom started out in poker but his skills
transition
to sports betting after the 1998 World Cup his secret weapon is a proprietary
algorithm that
analyzes football data in line with historical betting odds by using statistics and
probability
he bets Millions at a time via betting exchanges and sharp Asian sportsbooks after
leaving Victor
Chandler and going it alone in 2002 things really kicked off for Tony although very
secretive
it's believed that his early Focus was on the misalignment between betting odds and
real world
value when it come to players that were injured this led him to create star lizard
taking analysis
of sport into a completely different League shrewd pricing metrics and a systematic
approach made him
extremely wealthy very quickly in the early 2000s but his smarts didn't end there
as he reinvested
his winnings in multiple undervalued Ventures such as the seagulls a move that had
him dubbed the
cleverest man in the Premier League now very few make it to Tony's Inner Circle so
it's difficult
to identify his true net worth but based on assets alone is believed to be well
over 1 billion with
a B but Tony isn't the only one with a Savage sports betting strategy next we've
got Bernard
marantelli a professional Gambler and the founder of Colossus bets who yeah the
wider public here
probably won't have heard of him but marantelli was born into an Australian
bookmaking family
on he became interested in pool betting hidden in the shadows he's one of the
brightest Minds
in betting having won the scoop six on several occasions and many sports betting
pools around the
world he's a betting Pioneer that's banked many millions his strategy involves
identifying when
the value of a betting pool exceeds the risk of playing when the time is right he
buys masses of
tickets very quickly this pooling of large amounts of money within an even bigger
betting pool
increases the chances of winning it significantly now obviously this means he
doesn't win every
time but because he's already run the numbers he wins far more than he loses
identifying inflated
betting pools where there are certain combinations that are less likely to be
selected isn't new is
how some of the smartest players have won World lotteries but I won't be surprised
if Bernard
has either to be honest having met him in the past he's an intensely bright guy
marelli's
platform offers Innovative betting pools with lifechanging jackpots it's no
surprise
that he should start his own sports betting given the nature of his own experiences
and
strategy and speaking of strategies the next Gambler used Insider knowledge to his
Advantage
because Billy Waters is a legend when it comes to sports betting in the US W's
career spans
over three decades and also comes with a lot of controversy mainly because of his
potential
involvement with mob figures and later inside the trading scandals however it's not
all dodgy stuff
he was amongst a group of people who developed computer algorithms to identify
value in sports
betting markets then after being banned from many of Vegas's biggest Sports books
he masterminded
a network of anonymous bet Runners who would put money down for him many of them
had no idea what
was actually going on Billy's later strategy was also built around manipulating
sports betting
lines in a legitimate way it's believed that he would frequently Target Sports bets
where there
were only two outcomes first he would bet heavily on the bet that he didn't want
then once the
sports B could adjust their betting odds and increase the alternate betting line
his team of
bet Runners would hit it even harder exploiting that massive value in the process
his most famous
win came in 2010 when he reportedly made $3.5 million betting on the new orans
Saints to win the
Super Bowl now despite the controversial end with legal troubles W sports betting
career earnings
are in the hundreds of Millions with his assets surpassing 200 million at one point
next let's
move on to a very different genius who outsmarted The Bookies in the UK as a
Cambridge Mathematics
graduate he turned his number crunching skills and high-end connections into a
profitable
sports betting career in his book he said that he took the bookies for over 10
million I've
read it myself and Patrick V meticulously plans everything he does now some of you
will probably
know him from the 2004 betting cou where a largely unknown horse was bet from 100
to1 into 8 to1
before annihilating the competition now V's Str involves detailed analysis Insider
connections
and exploiting bookmakers value he was one of the first people to time his horse's
performance in
private before applying it to an upand cominging race this is how he knows if he's
getting value
in a bet or not but V's past has also been full of problems winning bets sometimes
draw the wrong
attention for a period his sports betting exploits meant he had to go in hiding the
details are in
his book and it's well worth the read but the next gamblers operation is massive in
comparison to V's
10 million because xelo ran joic often referred to as the Joker or John Wilson has
pulled the
strings on much of the world's betting for decades betting companies live in fear
of him cutting his
teeth at Blackjack he quickly moved on to winning mini lotteries known as Kino and
the Australian
tax office even went after him at one point he himself is estimated his sports
betting turnover
at $1 billion per year and that was back in 2012 much like marantelli he's heavily
invested in
betting pools mini lotteries and sports betting on the world's largest betting
exchange betterfit
supposedly back in 2012 he was estimated to be around 33% of the money on the
exchange similar
to bloom ran Jo's approach involves Advanced Data modeling to exploit tiny edges
for huge money
regularly he also employs a team of analysts to study patterns in odds and sports
around the
world ran jer's exact are are closely guarded secret although it's pretty hard to
hide when
you're buy an apartments and mansions in one hide Park and Queensland everything
points towards
multi-billionaire next up we have the master of NBA sports betting most of you
probably W have
heard of him although he's the most successful NBA better he spotted a loophole in
the total points
lines provided by Sports books his name is halabos vulgaris is that how you say it
vgar is's strategy
focused on in-game points lines for the first and second halfes of a game he
realized that despite
there being more points scored in the second half of a game much like in football
The Bookies
hadn't been making the necessary adjustments so quite simply he identified the True
Value and
then exploited the hell out of these betting lines his strategy worked much like
some of the
most popular ones today except on a bigger scale vulgaris sports but ins success
even led to a role
with the Dallas Mavericks where he applied his analytical skills to team strategy
At His Highest
Point he was staking over a million dollars with the major casino sports books
although after
generating $7 million in profit the house caught on and rectified their routine
mistake now finally
let's meet the man who turned horse racing into a science perhaps he's the biggest
Legend of all
of these here's how and why because Bill benter cracked horse racing long before
many were even
considering his methods using mathematical smarts and his own skills in software
development back
when home computers first started he created an algorithm So Sophisticated it once
allowed
him to win $118 million in one day mixing in similar circles with ran joic he
started out
card counting and quickly moved onto paramutual Bon poles in Hong Kong he
consistently beat what
is effectively the Chinese tote his sports betting strategy involved an algorithm
that factored in
130 different variables including horse form track conditions and jockey data to
effectively pick
a win up he then took it one step further and included live betting pool data to
optimize for
maximum profits his life is a story that quite frankly should be a movie as he then
went on to
give away a lot of his money via philanthropy well I say a lot given his continued
interest
he's probably still winning massive amounts of money right now if you want to learn
some sports
betting strategies that are still working right now then check out this next video
here in the
end screen oh and don't forget to subscribe

the popularity of betting on the NFL is undeniable but are you getting your money
down in the best possible situation each week I'm going to give you five types of
bets you should look for each week to profit more when betting the NFL hi I'm Jack
from unabated I've been a professional Gambler for over 20 years and I still get
amped up for the NFL season it's by far the most popular sport to bet on in the US
what makes it so great are all the varied different ways you can bet the NFL
however that also creates a lot of ways for you to make some very bad bets each
weekend of the NFL season I want to clue you in on some good situations and good
bet types that you should look for in hopes that you'll avoid some of those bad
bets let's start our countdown with a good bet you can find early in the week at
number five we have over reactions when teams only play once a week it gives people
a lot of time to analyze and react to each week's game it seems a lot of the time
is often spent overreacting to the previous game early in the season that's even
more so how about the Jaguars that's a team that I'm panicking about after 0 and2
it can be worth your time to listen to all those hot takes from Talking Heads each
Sunday night and Monday morning and then bet the opposite look for situations where
the overreaction has moved the line too far these are professional teams made up of
the best football players in the world that level of parody means that most of the
time the team is not as bad as they appeared last week nor are they as great as
they seemed either find where sentiment has pushed a line through a key number key
numbers if you're not familiar with the concept are margins of Victory more likely
to occur in the NFL they are the three the six and the Seven they will often be the
resistance point for a line moving on an overreaction towards the middle or end of
the week you are less likely to find Value on overreactions about teams the sharp
betters have hammered the market more towards efficiency that's why overreactions
are an early week play instead later in the week you may want to look for
overreactions in player props I've got a lot to say about player props so we're
going to make that number four on our list of bets you should be making at unabated
we're big proponents of your ability to beat player props we let you import player
projections and then simulate out gameplay to find Value in player prop markets
Sports books are more tolerant of NFL player props than they are of other sports
even better there are more prop bets in the NFL than any other sport the surface
area for you to attack is immense Sports books know that us bets love betting props
but not all props are easy to beat Sports books like to push the same game parlay
bet to you to get you to make some bad bets same game parlays offer Wagers that
seem too good to be true correlated events that can be parlayed together but the
average better doesn't know how to factor that correlation nor does the better know
when they may be setting up a parlay that is inversely correlated to itself the
sports book Praise on that and protects themselves by significantly shorting the
payout on these parlay You're simply not getting the payout you deserve when you
bet same game parlays you're also going to lose a lot more frequently then you win
and for many betters that can be demoralizing and encourage the urge to chase
losses by making bigger and bigger parlays what I recommend is focusing on straight
player props resist the urge to roll them into a parlay furthermore focus on player
props as player injury news comes out Thursday through Sunday each week a lot of
the movement that comes on player prop lines is driven by injury information if one
player is going to have less usage due to an injury then another player is likely
to absorb that workload also look to factor in the overreaction angle as well prop
lines are less efficient than game lines you're going to find that they move a lot
more drastically driven by square and sharp bets if you put time and effort into
player props you can get the edge on them one more key point about props Sports
books deal a median line your projection is likely to be a mean projection you need
to be able to convert a mean to a median using simulation I talk more about this in
our video about attacking props you can find that in the description below when you
find a player prop you like you should definitely shop around and find the best
price and that leads us to number three on our list line shopping it's not
necessarily a bet you should be making it's a betting habit you need to get into
too often People BET based on convenience they wager with the sports book they
currently have money in and rarely look past one or two sports books the number of
sports books you have access to depends on where you live in the US some states
have no regulated books others have only one then there are states that have a lot
of options for the sports betting consumer whatever state you're in use all the
available sports betting outs and then some people often ask me which sports book
they should be betting at my answer is always the same all of them shopping for the
best price is a key component of being a winning Sports better it's also the only
thing that I can guarantee will improve your bottom line You'll either win more or
lose less by line shopping if you've exhausted all of your State's regulated Sports
books look into some sweep Stakes based Sports books I outlined this concept in
another recent video that link is in the description below as well now coming in at
number two on our list of bets you should be looking at are halftime bets now as it
sounds these are bets made at halftime on the remainder of the game in-game betting
gives the better a chance to bet based on what they've seen if they are watching
the game they may pick up on something that they want to bet on but in-game betting
has a flaw in that often betters are watching on an unknowing delay on their
broadcast or stream of the game the sports book has ultra low latency game feeds
while you're typically anywhere from 10 to 30 seconds behind real time halftime is
a better time to bet because there's no fear of broadcast delay halftime is also a
great opportunity to find Value in abnormal game situations like situ where you
recognize that the next score might call for a team going for a two-point
conversion but the total on the game expects seven-point touchdowns or maybe there
is some weather that will affect the second half of the game one more tip about
halftime betting there are now some books that offer in-game player prop betting at
halftimes many Savvy bets can recognize that knowing how each team will be
approaching the second half can lead to value in these bets it offers some
interesting possibilities and now the number one bet you should try to work Into
Your Arsenal for NFL betting it's affectionally known as the Wong teaser it's been
around for a while and a lot of sports books have found ways to combat it however
there's still enough value in a Wong teaser to make it worth looking into first for
those not aware teasers are bets where you make a parlay and get extra points added
to the spread of the teams you choose of course of course since it's a parlay all
teams must win for you to get paid the most common form of football teaser is a
six-point teaser a team that is a minus 10 favorite becomes aus4 favorite for
instance in his Landmark book back in 2000 Stanford Wong noted that when a six-
point teaser moves through the key numbers of three six and seven it has a positive
expected value given the prices commonly offered by most sports books favorites of
- 7 1/2 to- 8 become - 1 1/2 to - 2 1/2 and underdogs of + 1 1/2 to + 2 1/2 become
+ 7 1/2 to Plus 8 and A2 sharp betters have feasted on teasers for most of the past
25 years based on Wong's work however eventually the sports books started catching
on and adjusting the prices for these teaser bets you once could find two team
teasers for even money then minus 110 was popular these days you'll find most
sports books un willing to give you a line better than minus 130 on these two team
bets that's not good enough you're going to want minus 120 or better when betting
two team Sixpoint teasers but even better is you should look at three and four team
teasers instead some sports books will offer you plus 160 on a three team teaser
that's actually much better than a two- team teaser forus 120 of course the more
legs your teasers the more variance in your results you'll have to accept that
sometimes you'll identify five Wong teaser teams in a week and make a bunch of
three team teasers with all the permutations but you still don't turn a profit
that's the tough side of teasers but there are valuable bets to make and the theory
put forth by Stanford Wong nearly a quarter century ago is still viable just
remember that price matters try to find the best payouts for your teasers here's a
chart to help you out with what is the worst price you should take for your teaser
betting try to do even better than these prices with these five tips hopefully you
have some new BET types to look for during the NFL season to learn more about some
new places to make those bets check out my recent video on the new world of sweep
Stakes bedding I'll see you in there [Music]

when it comes to sports betting the NFL is King more people bet on the NFL than any
other sport in the US sides totals money lines parlays props same game parlays
there are so many different ways to carve up the NFL but there's one way to bet
that could turn your small investment into a multi-million dollar jackpot I'm going
to explore how you could be the next NFL contest millionaire [Music] hi I'm Jack
from unabated I've been a professional Gambler for over 20 years and while I've won
Millions from casinos and sports books most of what I did could be very much
described as get rich slowly in fact I've said it before that sports betting is not
a get-rich quick scheme it takes study and dedication to find an edge and exploit
that edge however by early January there are going to be a few more freshly minted
millionaires that hit it big by winning a season long NFL contest let's start by
describing the two major types of contests pick them and Survivor a pick them
contest requires you to pick the winner against the spread of a set number of games
each week at the end of the season the person who has the best record wins prizes
are also paid to Runners up a Survivor contest as it sounds is a winner take all
contest where contestants pick one team each week to win straight up no spread once
they use a team they can't use it again during the season whoever survives the
longest wins now large scale versions of these contests can draw over 10,000
participants the more contestants the lower your chance of winning of course but
that doesn't make them bad bets the most prestigious of these contests are held in
Las Vegas the Westgate super contest is the granddaddy of football contests it's a
pickham contest meanwhile Circa millions and Circa Survivor have rocketed up in
popularity they're played at Circa in downtown Las Vegas now you don't have to be
in Nevada to enter your picks but you do need to go to Las Vegas to sign up and use
a proxy to put in your picks each week if a summer trip to the desert isn't in your
cards this year there are large scale contests Run online at DraftKings as well as
upstart Splash Sports you'll need to check on the legality of entering those cont
in your state or Province the Allure to most betters entering these contests is
that it is a perfect opportunity to risk a little and win a lot gamblers love doing
that it's why Powerball and Mega Millions are so popular but these contests also
appeal to sports betters because it's a season long contest that gives you a lot of
bang for your buck if played well you get season long participation and activity
for one fixed price these contests also offer a very real possibility of your 15
minutes of fame past winners of large contests like Westgate super contest or
circum millions and Survivor are treated like celebrities in the sports betting
World some have launched businesses from their success others just enjoy the
bragging rights but the biggest reason that these contests are appealing to all
types of BS is that they're typically plus EV or positive expected value in the
case of Circa they have a guaranteed prize pool for both Circa millions and Circa
Survivor in the past few years there have been some Hefty overlays in those
contests meaning they paid out more than the sum of the entry fees however almost
all these season long contests end up being plus EV because an amazing number of
contestants fail to put in their entries at some point during the season last year
73 people missed putting in an entry at Circus Survivor during the season and they
were instantly eliminated that was $73,000 of more dead money added to the prize
pool other contests get similar amounts of dead money it definitely helps to make
these contests theoretically profitable for all skill levels this is Greg Jones one
of our subscribers at unabated Greg runs a production company in Southern
California that makes commercials he likes betting the NFL and Tennis but he's far
from a professional he's been entering circus Survivor since its Inception in 2020
in the first three years of the contest he's failed to make it out of week one
undeterred Greg entered circus Survivor in 2023 with four entries Greg went on to
survive all 20 weeks and take down a massive prize with three other contestants who
survived the entire Gauntlet more on Greg in a minute his story is a wild ride when
it comes to being successful in these season long contest whatever the format pick
them or Survivor there's a definite plan you can follow I'm a fan of alliteration
so I've turned this into the four Ps of your contest plan participation probability
process and path if you keep these four Ps in mind you'll be ahead of the vast
majority of your fellow contestants let's start with the first one participation
now those contestants that didn't submit a week's entry on time definitely failed
this point it's very important that you understand all the rules in the contest you
are entering what is the submission deadline how are Thursday games treated are
there any nuances to the schedule that you need to keep in mind for instance in
Circus Survivor Thanksgiving and Christmas are treated as their own weeks on the
schedule you have to make sure you have teams available that play on those days
it's very simple know the rules and make sure you are always available to
participate now next is probability in a Survivor contest your probability might be
straightforward knowing that you have to survive the entire season to win a prize
however in a pick them contest there are often mini contests over the course of the
main event at the popular super contest run by Superbook there are 11 mini contests
during the season in addition to the one overall full season winner Circa has
quarterly prizes in addition to booby prizes for the contestant that ends with the
worst record both quarterly and full season so check out all the different ways you
can potentially win in a contest but don't get too hung up on the mini contest
prizes winning the big prize is ultimately the most important Target for you to
shoot for one more thing about probability and Survivor contests you need to keep
in mind later season probability a team you might like in week one might be a
better fit later in the year however you also need to factor in getting that far
and then how injuries might affect the trajectory that's a big reason why we built
a Survivor Optimizer at unabated it allows you to transfer power ratings into
probability and then optimally map the rest of the season you can also see what
your opponents have done over the course of the Season it works with all the major
Survivor contests at Circa DraftKings and splash Sports and that brings us to the
next p process you see in any contest there's going to be an inherent basic
strategy that a lot of the contestants all follow in a Survivor contest you'll find
most people like to take the biggest betting favorite that week another common
strategy you'll see is to avoid picking a Thursday night football team there's
something about being the first one out in a given week that just feels more
humiliating so you'll find very few people choose a Thursday team you can use those
two things to your advantage when trying to separate yourself from the pack
meanwhile in a pick them contest a popular strategy is to find Value in stale lines
the contest lines don't move with the market they are set midweek and remain set at
those numbers through the weekly deadline to submit picks if you pick just the five
lines that move the most by the deadline you'll find yourself in a pretty congested
pack of other contestants who are doing the same a big part of your process in a
mass contest like this is knowing when to stay with the flow of traffic and when to
attempt to pass them by by making your move when trying to pass you need to focus
on being on games your opponents won't be on and if you find yourself really
needing to slingshot past the pack you may need to take contrarian positions and
bet opposite the stale lines you know everyone else will be picking with 90 total
Selections in most of these pick them contests you have time to find the right
opportunity to make your move but it can be tough to overcome too large of a
deficit as the season winds down that brings us to the endgame strategy and this is
where you potentially have the biggest Edge over your opponents it's your path to
the big prize you'll find that a lot of people would much rather play it safe when
they get deep into a contest like this in a pick them contest they want to just
finish in the money in a Survivor contest they want to split the winnings with the
remaining cont tant as early as possible however knowing your path is extremely
valuable how could Things fall where you have the largest possible expected value
in a pick them contest that might mean more contrarian thinking or identifying
games your remaining opponents tend not to utilize or maybe it means controlling
your lead by picking games where you stay in lock step with your opponents in
Survivor it means knowing what your opponents have left and what gives you the most
chance to be a sole survivor if a deal to split winnings isn't on the table as the
season went on last year Greg utilized the unabated Survivor Optimizer to make an
epic run deep into the late weeks of the Season he kept an eye on which teams he
would need to get through the holiday weeks in the Circa Survivor season schedule
heading into the Thanksgiving games Greg had kept alive the upstart Detroit Lions
to use on that day earlier that week Greg had a personal tragedy when his mother
passed away he wasn't in a clear mind when he accidentally selected Green Bay
instead of Detroit in their Thanksgiving matchup but the Green Bay Packers went on
to upset the Lions 29 to 22 and that brings us to the other intangible
you need to win these Mega contests luck I'm sure you already knew that luck was a
big part of it but I like to think that unabated and his partic ipation probability
process and path had a big impact on winning but in the end if he hadn't misclicked
that entry on Thanksgiving he wouldn't have won over $2 million it reminds me of
the famous quote another P if you will pasture Lou pasture famously said Chance
favors the prepared mind chance was on his side but he definitely prepared well if
you're looking to prepare more for the NFL season check out this video where I talk
about the best ways to bet the NFL I'll see you in there

if you are a better who is running short of operators who are willing to take your
bet or you're stuck living in a state with very few options to get bets down the
next big thing in sports betting is about to hit us if you haven't heard of sweep
Stakes betting yet you soon will is it legal is it safe is it something you should
try I'm going to answer all those questions in this video hi I'm Jack from unabated
I've been a professional better for over 20 years one of the key moments in my
gambling career came on May 14th 2018 when the Supreme Court ruled that states were
free to decide if they wanted to regulate sports betting for themselves over the
next 6 years we've seen sports betting boom and now 35 States offer some form of
regulated sports betting I had hoped that regulation would bring a thriving sports
betting industry full of innovation to most of the United States and it did for
some states unfortunately where you live dictates how good sports betting can be
for you some states restrict competition only giving one regulated betting option
in other states the barriers to entry prohibit a lot of smaller businesses from
even competing there are also major states that are still potentially years away
from regulating sports betting the alternative to regulated sports betting has
always been the offshore industry as well as as local bookies for a lot of
Americans they're not comfortable transacting their money out of the country via
cryptocurrency and many of them believe that placing a bet offshore is illegal the
offshore betting industry has always had a consumer confidence problem meanwhile
local bookies still thrive in most of the us but they too face a reputational
hurdle people don't feel comfortable betting with a shady local bookie that settles
up weekly recent recently A solution has emerged from an unlikely Ally here's the
secret folks of where to win the biggest sweep Stakes prize of all time American
Family join us it's called sweep Stakes betting it allows sports betting to exist
in an environment that falls within the spectrum of a sweep steak here's how it
works you sign up for a site and quickly notice there are two different sections
the betting lines are the same on both sections both sections also use a virtual
currency for the betting on one side you wage your virtual coins and on the other
side you wage your virtual cash the difference is on the virtual coin side of the
house your virtual coins are always going to be worth nothing you can bet 1,000
virtual coins to win 10,000 virtual coins but if you win your virtual coins are
still worth zero however on the virtual cash side of the house your virtual cash
can be converted into into real money when you withdraw so a wager of virtual cash
is like wagering real money you'll find these sites allow you to purchase a
boatload of virtual coins and then give you a one toone equivalent of virtual cash
as a bonus in the same transaction spend $100 and you get 1 million virtual coins
and 100 virtual cash you're probably thinking how could this be legal you're just
wagering real US Dollars by not calling them US Dollars well the legality comes in
the form of sweep Stakes law the main thing that makes a sweep stake a sweep stake
is amoe alternative method of Entry you see a sweep stake must have a no purchase
necessary component so you need to be able to bet on both the virtual coin and
virtual cash side of the Sportsbook without depositing real money if you so desire
all of these sweep Stakes bedding sites give you the opportunity to mail in your
username and receive free virtual coins and virtual cash which after the waging
requirements are met can be exchanged for real money there are people who just
exploit this opportunity alone making hundreds of dollars per site per month by
following the alternative method of Entry instructions I'll warn you now they don't
make this process easy and if this would be your method of gaining an edge you
should probably subscribe to this Channel and find better ways to make money in
sports betting did I just sneak in a Please Subscribe request I guess I did this
video might really expand your horizons for sports betting so I greatly appreciate
it if you said Thank You by subscribing here on YouTube it's completely free now
we've got more to cover on this topic including some pitfalls you need to avoid if
you want to get started in the world of sports betting via sweep Stakes betting
sites so let's continue There are other components which allow this all to be
considered a sweep stake for instance a sweep steak must have a start and end date
in this case that could be the event you're betting on a sweep steak must have an
odds of winning and fortunately odds are a big part of sports betting just like
regulated gambling sweep Stakes laws come at the state level using sweep Stakes
laws for sports betting purposes is fairly novel though so far there hasn't been a
push to modify laws to prohibit this usage and close the loophole there are a few
states that aren't conducive to sweep Stakes betting and generally most sweep
Stakes based Sports books avoid these states however in the 40 or so other states
it's game on notice that includes some of those big states that haven't had a taste
of good sports betting yet the ability to take bets from States like California
Texas Florida and New York is a huge incentive for companies looking to get into
this space it's also more accepted than you might think payment processors such as
PayPal venmo and trussle are on board with sweepstakes based betting you don't have
to use some convoluted method to get your money into these sites some major
regulated operators are already looking into how they can be part of a sweep Stakes
beding while still maintaining a presence in the regulated bedding space in fact
two regulated operators recently surrendered their licenses in favor of going
Nationwide via the sweep Stakes model currently sweepstakes bedding is dominated by
fliff which entered the space a couple years ago but competition is definitely on
the way so what's the catch well this isn't regulated by any state gaming
commission or office I recently had a video on what to do when you have a dispute
with an operator unfortunately you wouldn't have much recourse in this environment
for some that will give the same uneasy feeling that prevents them from Bing with a
local bookie or an offshore sports book without a regulator the consumer needs to
do their due diligence to make sure they can trust the bedding site they are
depositing money into also the lack of Regulation can give rise to Shady operators
who see this as a way to perpetrate a scam another downside to sweep Stakes betting
is that the current operators tend not to offer a product that is highly
competitive lines are typically worse and limits are lower if you're someone who
has trouble getting down enough money on bets via your current portfolio of sports
books The Sweep Stakes books might not seem like they add much value to you but
competition is coming and that's always to the benefit of the consumer this is one
of the reasons I'm really bullish on the future of sweep Stakes bedding in the US
one of the operator which surrendered their license in New Jersey was the sports
betting exchange profit they will be reemerging in this new realm as profit X
previously their efforts to offer an equitable betting exchange were hampered by
only being able to take bets in New Jersey in the sweep Stakes model they are able
to offer an exchange that reaches over 40 States there's less fear of shady
dealings when you're betting into an exchange The Exchange itself is not
incentivized to rule in favor of the house because there is no house an exchange
makes money based on peer-to-peer bedding volume passing through their exchange the
other formerly regulated sports book operator is noig which has always been
committed to offering a low margin betting solution with very tight lines these
sites will put pressure on existing operators to come up with better lines or a
better product they also won't be the last Sports books to enter near this space
each new product will need to differentiate itself from the others to draw in new
customers it's an exciting prospect and one that I think could be a huge step
forward to sports betting in the United States but Jack won't States take action to
shut down these sites well there's always that possibility but the truth of the
matter is that there are bigger fish to go after than this for instance the sweep
Stakes based on online casino industry is already massive there's always more money
flowing from online casinos than sports betting they would be the bigger Target
plus this legal loophole that sweep Stakes betting exists in is actually pretty
strong it's much easier to draw the eye of a state attorney general when something
is illegal not when something is just a novel interpretation of the law so far
there have been some legal challenges to sweep Stakes betting and the concept has
fared better than you might expect there is a good chance that the proliferation of
sites like these will push the conversation forward the same way the early DFS
sites like DraftKings and FanDuel pushed that conversation forward on the legality
of DFS betting remember do your due diligence be cognizant of how much money you
keep in an unregulated space and if you're looking to learn how you can get the
edge at these new Sportsbook options check out this video which explores how how to
beat player prop bets I think this could be an exciting development for you

sports betting isn't easy there's so much to keep up with and factor into your
betting and everywhere you turn someone is trying to sell you something to help you
out I have five completely free shortcuts you should be using in your sports
betting Journey you're going to want to see this hi I'm Jack from unabated I've
been a professional Gambler for over 20 years and I've taken Millions from casinos
and sports books I did it through a lot of study hard work and discipline I like to
tell people that there are no shortcuts to being successful you have to put the
work in however these days there are some shortcuts that can really help you
improve your game better yet these shortcuts are all free let's start this list
with number five something I like to call picking the loow hanging fruit I've been
making videos on YouTube for over four years now and this was some of my earliest
advice take advantage of promotions and bonuses as best you can four years ago as
legalization started to spread across the US every sports book was eager to earn
your business by throwing money at you these days the signup offers aren't quite as
good as they were but there's still value at signup as well as in Daily boosts and
promotions if you're growing your small bankroll it's still the best thing going
for you I know because when I just started out as a fledgling card counter back in
the early 2000s I stumbled upon internet casinos and sports books it was a much
shadier time back then but with dozens of sites to choose from I stuck to the sites
with decent reputations and I simply bounced from deposit bonus to deposit bonus I
quickly turned my meager $10,000 bankroll into a six figure Nest Egg if you have a
small bankroll and at least a handful of sports books in your state you can do
quite well subsidizing your beding with these daily promotions I call this picking
the low hanging fruit because too often better set their sights too high When
approaching sports betting they try to beat markets that are way above their skill
level NFL or NBA sides for instance or they pick markets with a very high house
Edge single game parlays for instance if you want some more examples of bets to
avoid check out my video on the five worst bets you can make make in a sports book
I'll link it below if you focus on lwh hanging fruit you make your Road in sports
betting much easier now as a warning sometimes Sports books don't like someone just
picking the low hanging fruit and they may limit or cut off those accounts also
sometimes the expected value of a promotion might not be easy to calculate however
this is where your next free shortcut comes in handy and that is building a network
as I mentioned being a winning better isn't easy and it's made even more difficult
if you try to do it solely on your own having a wise network is important I'm not
talking about just a group chat among your buddies where you all list your five
team parlays you need people you can exchange useful information with and bounce
ideas off of like is this promotion worth playing finding solid people to network
with isn't easy in my own experience when I was starting out we had a few different
web-based message boards that were popular among other card counters the one I was
partial to was BJ 21.com I made a lot of friends there and still exchange
information with some of them to this day one thing I've always found useful is
finding people who are better at a certain skill than I am maybe they travel more
and know what works and doesn't work betting in person at a certain sports book
maybe they have better applied math skills and can figure out the expected value of
a bet boost don't underestimate the power of networking and don't overestimate your
ability to cover all of this betting surface area by yourself we created a free
Discord server at unabated because the need for solid trustworthy networking still
exists it astonishes me how strong the content is on that forum and a lot of
profitable connections have been made now coming in at number three on our list of
shortcuts is get info fast sports betting at its core is the exchange of
information the betters are trying to gather information and use it to beat the
sports book while the sports book is looking to adjust to new information quickly
and efficiently to maximize their profits you should always be looking for ways to
get information faster now some people don't even realize what information actually
moves markets do you know when NFL injury reports come out what about the Major
League Baseball daily lineups and who is playing and who is out when it's a game
time decision in the NBA these are all things that greatly impact betting lines if
you're relying on Googling and searching for information after it's out there
you're probably behind the curve back in the day I used to use Google Alerts to
notify me of news but in time that was replaced by tweet deck and now that product
is not really available since Twitter became X but there is a pro version of X
which has the same functionality as the old tweet deck and that's what I currently
use however I did say that these were all free shortcuts and that is only available
on a paid plan so you can still set up a lot of the same functionality using
multiple windows and cultivate different accounts to follow for instance the news
accounts from Underdog fantasy are really fast with pro sports lineup information
you might want to put them in one window and if you're looking for college college
football news we have an unabated CFB account which tweets a lot of valuable
college player news and is second to none in terms of speed if NFL football is your
bag check out the list that we've made public under the unabated sports Twitter
account it's all the best team beat reporters that stay on top of every little
detail of their local NFL team there's a lot of great info in there now combine
this with your network of other betters and this can be big having multiple eyes on
breaking news can be very rewarding the number two free shortcut for you is to use
an odd screen in fact shopping for the best price is the single sharpest thing you
can do as a better it's the one piece of advice that will make you win more or at
the very least lose less Studies have shown that the average better uses just two
sports books and they tend to make the decision of which one to bet at based not on
price but which one they've been winning at recently if you're not already you
should be using every Sportsbook app you have access to before you make a bet take
time to compare the odds at each sports book and if you're doing a lot of betting
this can be a laborious process so that's why an odd screen comes in handy you can
quickly compare prices and find which sports book offers the best odds for the
dollar a paid odd screen can cost as much as $800 a month but we're talking free
shortcuts here most free odd screens offer you delayed lines with their lines being
up to five minutes behind real time now this really defeats the purpose if you're
shopping lines based on some fast news that you sourced at unabated we offer one of
the only completely free odd screens featuring a majority of the sports books feeds
in real time we even give a color-coded signal as to how fast the current feed is
see that little green light that that's real time we also identify the best line
available on the screen as well as the synthetic hold for the market so you can see
how narrow the margins are for a lot of betters this will immediately help them to
make better decisions the free odd screen is a huge shortcut for betters and one
we're happy to provide as you continue your journey to become sharper so what is
the number one free shortcut to help you become a sharper better it's actually you
it's your drive your desire to continue to want to improve never stop learning
never stop seeking out new information and new angles to attack in sports betting
two decades ago I was reading books and reading posts on a message board now I
listen to podcasts while reading posts on a Discord server I keep a notebook with
various ideas and things that I'd like to explore some are sports betting related
and some aren't some will pan out most won't but I keep learning and and I keep
trying to find my next Edge keep your own notebook and keep searching and your
thirst for knowledge will be an amazing shortcut for your growth if you like this
video we've got plenty others that cover a wide variety of topics related to making
you a sharper Sports better like this one and be sure to check out the links below
I'll see you next time

it's inevitable a sports book makes a mistake in grading a wager and it's important
that you know what to do when it happens what are your rights who do you contact
and what happens if the sports book won't budge stay tuned because I'm going to
cover all of that in this video hi I'm Jack from unabated I've been a professional
Gambler for over 20 years and for the past four years I've put out content here on
YouTube designed to help better understand the world of sports betting by far the
most common type of question is looking for help in situations where they believe
the sports book has wronged them whether that be a wager that has been graded
incorrectly or a sports book won't give them their money some people already have a
shaky confidence in this emerging market and situations like these make them very
upset the first step is to make sure that you are correct that the sports book has
made an error all sports books have operating guidelines referred to as the house
rules you can typically find these rules prominently linked on a sportsbooks
website these rules govern how bets are decided per Sport and sometimes per bet
type unfortunately there are no Universal set of house rules you'll find a lot of
differences between sports books and how they handle various bet types for instance
if two golfers tie for the best score in the first round and you had a beted on one
of them you might get a reduced payout at one book which has what are referred to
as Dead Heat rules or you might get paid in full at a book which doesn't apply Dead
Heat rules to that wager type and it goes beyond just rare situations there may be
differences in how they handle suspended games or postponed matches naturally not
every better is going to read and remember all of the various house rules at every
sports book they have access to Chances Are it's only when it affects you that
you'll go in and read the rules I would estimate that four out of five pleas for
help that I receive are the result of someone not understanding the house rules at
the book they bet at also within those house rules is listed what source the sports
book uses to grade prop bets I bring that up because a common frustration is often
how prop bets are graded perhaps a player you bet on doesn't get rightfully
credited with a rebound or maybe a hard- hit ball is ruled in error when you think
it should be a hit these types of disputes are often very hard to overturn the
sports book just goes by what is reported by their source of Truth for each league
they also protect themselves by stating that their grading is based on the box
score when the game goes final if the official scorer changes an error to a hit
later after the game that doesn't have any bearing on the grading of the bet if a
missed rebound gets credited later your bet grading doesn't change it's frustrating
when you find yourself on the wrong side of that situation but this is a pretty
standard situation across all sports books now let's assume you check the house
rules and believe they back you up on your dispute the next step is to contact
customer support these days it's much more cost-efficient to offer online customer
support rather than a phone number typically you will have an email address to
contact or more commonly a live chat take a deep breath play some soothing music in
the background because sometimes a customer support chat can test your patience
with the massive size of some of these regulated Sports books customer support
representatives are often Fielding chats with multiple customers at the same time
explain your situation clearly and concisely having a wager number or bet ID to
reference can help a great deal now the person you're chatting with will probably
need to escalate your issue so don't expect immediate resolution also so far we've
been discussing a situation where there's a grading dispute on a wager but there
are other situations where things can be more complicated a sports book requiring
you to submit identity verification or proof of funds or perhaps a dispute over
bonus terms sometimes the issue is just a misunderstanding I once had a sports book
here in New Jersey reject my submitted picture of my New Jersey driver's license
and then suspend my account all because the license says that it's not for real ID
purposes however that's the federal real ID program it doesn't mean that it's some
sort of novelty ID it took several days to clear up what should have been a very
obvious situation and I've been asked to help out in situations where a sports book
is holding a large sum of money sometimes several hundred, and it's asking the
customer to prove that they are who they say they are or prove that they funded the
account themselves in many situations these are normal compliance checks required
by various anti-money laundering or know your customer regulations my overarching
advice is that kindness and professionalism goes a long way on both sides this
issue May mean a great deal to you after all it's your money but you may be dealing
with a company that has processes and procedures that need to be stepped through
for disputes one important Point document everything get transcripts of your chat
take screenshots of your Wagers and requests this is important for what possibly
comes next in the process for a simple issue like a grading dispute you can expect
to get resolution or an explanation within 24 hours some of the more complex
disputes may take a week or more if the sports book still claims that they're right
and you're wrong you'll have to take the case to a higher power this is where the
road diverges depending on where you bet if you're betting with an offshore sports
book or a site which is not regulated by the state you place the bed in your next
steps aren't easy you'll need to dive into the sports books terms and conditions
which is different from the house rules and a lot more difficult to understand many
of these sites basically say their decision is final and there is no recourse
however if you're betting at a regulated sports book in one of the 38 States or
jurisdictions that have legalized sports betting well congratulations you can file
a dispute with the state you see in the US gambling is regulated at the state level
meaning each state has their own rules and Regulatory bodies it's pretty Universal
though that the first piece of information that they'll want is proof that you
tried to settle this directly with the sports book that's where the transcripts and
screenshots come in handy different states have different thresholds of how long
you need to give the sports book to resolve the case themselves A good rule of
thumb is 2 weeks if you're still at an impass after 2 weeks or they've ghosted you
after 2 weeks then it is probably time to contact the regulator you will need to
know where to go to file the complaint and with 38 States and jurisdictions that
can be tough to find and that's why we created an article at unabated that gives
you direct links to all the various regulatory bodies in all the legalized States
and as more States come online in the future we'll refresh the article and update
it you can find that article Linked In the description below overall expect the
state to do a thorough job in looking into your dispute again be clear and concise
in explaining your dispute to the investigator be aware that the investigators have
access to all the relevant information so don't try to pull one over on them
hopefully the state is able to resolve things to your satisfaction or at least
explain it so that you believe the result is fair if not your options are Getting
Thinner you'll find most sports books make you agree to arbitration in their terms
and conditions if you can't resolve a dispute you would probably want to consult a
gaming attorney at this point and that goes beyond the scope of this video
understanding how the dispute process works is just one step in your journey to
being a smarter better for more information on how things really work in sports
betting check out this video and uh I'll see you in there

some of the most beatable lines that a

sports book puts out are on player prop bets however there is one major mistake
that most betters make when betting props I'll show you step by step how to beat
player
props and how to avoid that mistake in this video hi I'm Jack from unabated when I
was first
starting out in sports betting over 20 years ago I build up my bankroll crushing
player prop bets
the lines were probably easier to beat back then but we didn't have nearly the
variety of bet
options that are available to today's bettors we also didn't have the tools
available that
we do today to spot the edges quickly and to get the bets down swiftly in a
previous video
we explored how beating sports betting doesn't have to be about predicting the
future it's more
about price and probability that method is known as top-down betting and if you
haven't watched
that video it'll be linked below many of the reasons that top-down betting works
for game sides
and totals are the same reasons why it's not the preferred approach for beating
player props you
see top- down betting relies on Sharp BS shaping the lines at sharper books that
will take their
action you then use that as your cue as to what the line should be their sharp
liquidity hammers
the line into shape however player props typically don't have massive liquidity in
their Market
markets it's a much tougher bet for a Sharp hook to handle so they don't take as
much on these
bets for both the sharp bets and the sharp books it's not a priority you can't
effectively use top-
down betting on props when it comes to props the better approach is to find
trustworthy projections
as your source of Truth and use them as your guide sometimes paying for these
projections can be
worth it but Jack you told us not to buy picks aren't projections just picks for
player props no
player projections give a full picture of what the expected output is for a player
in a game you
then apply that to the market of available prop bets shopping for the best line is
still key just
like in top down betting one thing I rarely do on this channel is ask you to like
And subscribe
I feel the content speaks for itself however YouTube's algorithm wants to see those
things as
confirmation that people want to see more of these types of videos so allow me to
make a rare appeal
for a thumbs up and a sub it will encourage me to keep putting out videos like this
thank you now
to many betters player prop bets are attractive because they're a natural extension
of DFS daily
fantasy sports where you construct a lineup of players and then their individual
performance
dictates how many points your lineup receives today's betters have become
hyperfocused on player
performance factoring in everything that could influence a player stats and this is
actually one
of the reasons player props are so beatable when you're trying to predict who will
win a full game
there are a lot of factors and variables involved you need to account for all of
those things and
it's very difficult to master however with player props you're narrowing your focus
down to just one
player's performance typically just on a single key stat if you're comfortable
enough to create
your own projections that's great but for a lot of betters that might be beyond
their skill level
or just too daunting to do for every player in a league this is where the
popularity of DFS plays
another key role because of DFS there are sites that cater to projecting statistics
for players
you can use their subject knowledge to help power your betting for instance FanDuel
is offering an
over under on the number of strikeouts by Tanner Hal against the ray we could use a
DFS helper site
like numberfire to look up their projection on Hal for this game it's 5.65 seems
like the over 5
1/2 might be a play however this is actually the major flaw I warned you about at
the top of
the video you see a DFS site is going to list an average projection for a player
this is called
the mean in statistical terms in DFS you get more points the more strikeouts the
pitcher accrues
so their average is important to you however a sports book only cares about betters
going over or
under their line they don't care by how much as a result a sports book lists a
median projection
for the line that's the point where 50% of the results would be over and 50% would
be under just
hang with me a little longer on this because the payout for your future of betting
props is huge if
player performance followed a normal distribution the mean and the median would be
similar however
in something like strikeouts it's not normally distributed you can't go below zero
strikeout and
the distribution tail to the positive side goes out considerably longer this is
called a right
skewed or positive skewed distribution the mean or average is going to be higher
than the median
in props with fewer trials and attempts this is going to be a meaningful difference
if you follow
these mean projections you would end up betting more overs due to the mean
projection being higher
than the median sports book line however you'll actually on the wrong side of the
bet in terms of
probability of it winning when it wins you may win by a bigger margin but you'll
win less frequently
than if you had used the median but this is why so many people lose betting props
don't bet the
mean you have to bet the median in order to find the median you need to run the
projection through
a simulation to produce the full distribution of results for instance at unabated
we have player
prop simulators built into our prop odd screen by clicking one button I can
simulate Tanner Hal's
performance 10,000 times and find the edge in this market is actually on the under
the median
being lower than the mean gives me a 2% Edge against the underline at Sugarhouse
Sportsbook in
fact we have these simulators for a wide range of player props in MLB NFL college
football NBA and
even WNBA you bring the projections and will help help you simulate and find Value
in the market
now speaking of projections that's really the key here you're only as good as the
projections
garbage in garbage out so to speak there are a lot of projection sources out there
on the internet
pretty much if you can export them from a website as a CSV file we can import them
into our prop odd
screen and run simulations for you the process for beating props is nearly as
simple as the process
we laid out for top- down bedding step one you identify your source of Truth you
find a
projection set you believe is sharp step two you load that projection set into the
prop odd
screen and simulate the player performance to identify edges step three you shop
for the best
price the prop betting Market is less efficient than a major sports side or total
Market as
a result you may see some eye popping edges on the prop odd screen it's your
projections
against the market and sometimes the market Market disagrees you still need to
respect the
market even when it's less than efficient be careful with big edges you find on
props back in
our video on building a bank roll I talked about Kelly staking and using quarter
Kelly due to
the uncertainty surrounding your Edge in sports betting I'd advise that when
betting props
you use a stake size you're comfortable with but Kelly staking might not be the
best way to go
also Sports books have a habit of not tolerating betters who beat them on props so
keep that
in mind as well when devising your stake size feasting just on props is not a way
to sustain
your account but we'll talk more about that in a future video if you're interested
in learning
more about betting props this way head on over to unabated dot com we have a lower
priced tier
that is designed just for the prop specialist it includes the prop odd screen the
simulators
and other tools to help you crush prop markets DFS pick them sites like prize picks
and Underdog
and even office pools or join me here for another video like this one your journey
to becoming
a sharper Sports better is going to continue

what does it take to beat sports betting using your own handicapping skills we call
this method originating but how do Originators do it how do they come up with their
own numbers and how could you get started doing it as well if you don't have a
background in computer programming I'm going to break it all down for you in this
[Music] video hi I'm Jack from unabated I've been a professional Gambler for over
20 years along the way I've discovered that winning at sports betting can be done
in a few different ways in earlier videos we've explored top- down betting using
the sharper segment of the market to identify and quantify your Edge when betting
at other sports books it's a straightforward approach that has proven to be
successful however it's also fairly detectable by Sports books and can lead to
limits imposed on those who win another way to win at sports betting is by
originating or bottom up betting as some like to call it this is where you devise
what the line should be or what the probability should be now remember sports
betting is all about price and probability Originators come up with their own
probability and hunt for the best price but to many people the thought of
originating and beating Sports books this way seems daunting you probably assume
that it must take brilliant computer models or complex programming to beat the
sports betting market and in some markets it can however as I've mentioned before
it's all about surface area the sports book has a vast surface area to defend and
you can choose where you want to attack would you like to build a model that can
better predict the outcome of an NFL game well of course you would but you'd be
attempting to attack Sports books at a point where they're nearly impenetrable that
market is too efficient by game day there's too many other betters attacking it you
likely wouldn't find a valid Edge now lucky for you the sports book offers a wide
variety of bets related to the NFL and as well as other sports those areas are more
vulnerable to attack they also would require far less complex models to give you
that punchers chance I know people who originate in some of the biggest markets in
the world they have very complex models and databases and they've put in hundreds
of hours into what they do but they didn't start at the top they work their way up
building and constantly refining their process they adapt to the market and
constantly look for ways to improve they also pick and choose which markets they
try to beat it's very tough to originate in more than one sport at a time I've
spoken before about narrowing your focus as a sports better so you can easier find
something that you can beat rather than trying to drink from the fire hose and
trying to beat a wide range of sports markets for instance the idea of creating a
model to project the final score of a baseball game might seem overwhelming however
every sports book offers first five innings lines if you narrow your focus to just
the first five innings you've largely taken the bullpen out of the mix but you can
narrow even further almost every sports book offers first inning lines in fact it's
a popular bet YY or nerfy YY for yesr run first inning and nerfy for no run first
inning you're now just handicapping will there be a run scored in the first inning
you've narrowed the focus down to just the starting pitchers and the first six
batters in each team's lineup for a single at bat and if that's still too difficult
you can narrow your focus even more down to player props pitcher strikeouts will a
certain player get a hit that sort of thing this is just a simple mental
progression related to baseball you can pick any sport and work through these same
name thoughts basketball tennis golf soccer you name it just make sure you're not
trying to beat something that is too big of a market for your skill level in
originating look for markets where it's plausible that you could set a better line
than what the market has now I'm fond of using the scientific method when trying to
find ways to beat Sports markets yes the scientific method that you probably
learned in grade school it starts with observation then forming a hypothesis than
experimenting to prove your hypothesis you spot a bet that you think you can come
up with a way to beat then you hypothesize what it might take to beat that wager
one day years ago I discovered that a sports book had a prop bet on how many home
runs would be hit in a baseball game but the line was always over under two no
matter the game My hypothesis was that it was easier to hit home runs in certain
ballparks with certain weather conditions so I set out to make a model trying to
identify the correlation between weather and ballpark Dynamics armed with that
hypothesis I was able to get three years worth of game data that had home run
information in it then I looked up the zip codes for each Major League ballpark I
built a historical weather database that corresponded with each game for that
Stadium zip code I was able to experiment and prove my hypothesis it was actually
overk because beating that prop really didn't require anything more than looking at
the wind direction for home run friendly Parks like Wrigley Field however even
after that prop bet was no longer available to me that model evolved into
projecting baseball totals I was able to identify some key correlations with
regards to barometric pressure that wasn't being factored into the lines for a few
years I was steadily beating baseball totals using this angle it all started with
an observation though as I was describing my process some of you might already
think that's too complicated I I couldn't do all that however let's break down that
barrier you have in your mind see at no point during all of that did I do any
programming I did it all in Microsoft Excel loaded in some stats and then used web
queries in Excel to fill in the weather information it was a pretty bloated
spreadsheet but it worked and these days you don't even need Excel there are so
many tools and resources available to help you bridge that gap between your
hypothesis and proving your theory that's one of the reasons we built unabated a
lot of people use us for top- down beding but there's many tools to help bers
trying to beat Sports from the bottom up we offer player prop simulators which help
turn your projections into Quantified edges that you can compare against Sportsbook
lines previously building a simulator on top of creating projections was a a lot
more than what most betters could handle we also offer tools that help you find a
tackable surface area for instance maybe you poke around and find that there's a
bit of a difference in pricing for first period lines in the NHL you'd like to
identify who is right and who isn't we have a tool to tell you what the first
period line should be for a hockey game given the money line in total for the game
no math no programming needed originating is not as hard as you might think it is
if you found that the way you're doing sports betting isn't working for you it
might be time to explore originating here's why if you're betting something that a
lot of other people are also betting it's going to get the sports books attention
this is especially true if you're using a service that is alerting a lot of people
to the same positive EV wager Sports books tend to paint with a very broad brush
they're going to look to limit a large swath of betters that all appear to be doing
the exact same thing at the exact same time when you're originating you're working
on your own time you don't have to worry about getting lumped in with a bunch of
other Advantage players in fact a sharp sports book might actually welcome your
action if they notice you're sharp see they'll shape their lines based on your
betting so that they have an edge against all the other bets that come behind you
of course that's not necessarily the case at Recreational Sports books who just
don't like people winning but you might find your leash is longer everywhere when
you're not part of a crowd all hitting an off-market line at the same time one
thing to keep in mind if you want to start originating some angles the less total
bets a sports book is taking on a wager the greater the chance that it's beatable
and then at the same time the lower the total amount of bets that a sports book is
taking on the market the lower the tolerance and the higher the liquidity the
higher the tolerance keep all this in mind when trying to find angles to originate
if you target an obscure prop you probably have a short leash despite even a good
Edge so don't put too much time into beating it since you won't last long betting
it if you want to get started with trying to originate your own angles start by
exploring everywhere in your sports betting accounts look for bets where it's
possible for you to have an angle not factored into the line build your hypothesis
and then find ways that you can test it it's not an easy path but it offers a
tremendous upside if you can prove your hypothesis is correct if you're curious
about some other ways that professional betters approach sports betting and check
out this video to continue your journey I'll see you next time

have you ever seen this a sports book is telling you that 52% of the bets are on
one team but 66% of the money is on their opponent can you use this information to
your advantage or are they just trying to trick you into wagering more I'm going to
break it all down for you in this [Music] video hi I'm Jack from unabated I've been
a professional better for over 20 years in that time I've seen betters use a lot of
signals to try to gauge which side the sharp bers are on one of the more popular
methods is in the form of Bing splits what is a betting split it's simply
information presented by Media or Sports books that indicate the percentage of
Wagers that are on either side of the market as well as the percentage of money
that's been wagered on either side of a game here's an example many betters look at
this and say the majority of the bets and the money are on the Detroit Lions that
must be the better side I'm going to bet that others look at it and say well the
public never wins in the long run so I'm going to fade the public and take the
49ers opposite of what the majority is on or they see information like this where
the betting split says there are more Wagers on Kansas City but more money is on
Baltimore the better thinks that it indicates that the professional bets must be on
the team getting more of the money since professional bets bet more so who's right
and is there a way to glean valuable information from these charts well first let's
consider the source of this information in past videos I've spelled out how there
are sharp Sports books and Recreational Sports books the Recreational Sports books
don't tolerate sharp betters they impose heavy limits on winning betters to
discourage them from betting with them you're going to find that the sports books
that provide these betting splits are the Recreational Sports books not not the
sharp books some of them even give you this information right in their app if these
betting splits were really useful in determining what the sharp prob betters were
doing do you really think Sports books would want to give you that information it
reminds me of any roulette wheel in a casino there's always a tote board next to it
showing you the results the last 20 rolls people love to find patterns in
Randomness by showing you the ratio of red to black or which numbers have been hot
they're encouraging you to be fooled by that Randomness the roulette ball has no
memory the roulette wheel is not biased it's just a ploy to have you bet more now
the same thing could be said about these betting splits they are a ploy to get you
to bet more by thinking that these numbers tell a story does anyone remember back
in grade school when you learned how to effectively communicate information there
are the five W's who what where when and why if you supply the 5 WS you tell the
complete story well guess what five things are missing from these Bing split
reports yeah the who the what the where the when and the why you see these betting
splits tell a very incomplete story they don't tell you who made the bets you can
assume Pro betters bet more but these Sports books don't book sharp professional
action in fact it's the opposite they rais the limits of VIP customers who they
deem are bad at betting so is it professional money betting more or is it really
bad betters who have higher limits that are skewing the report next they don't tell
you what they bet as in what line they got remember from past videos that sports
betting is about price and probability in a football game if a sports book opened
at the line at three and through the course of the week move to five there is a big
difference between betting a team at minus 3 three and at-5 and that's exactly what
happened in that Kansas City Baltimore game the sports books opened Baltimore at
minus 3 and by game day it was Baltimore minus5 if the sharp action all came in at
minus three betting them now at minus5 would be a big mistake sharp betters
recognize this and at five they're probably looking at the underdog Chiefs at plus
five you also don't know where the bets were made most recreational bets bet on
their favorite local team to win but Sports books aren't in every state what about
a matchup between Philadelphia located in the midst of many regulated sports
betting States and San Antonio located nowhere near a legal sports book there could
definitely be some Regional bias in the number of bets placed on that game you
don't know when the bets were made either there are a lot of factors that impact
why a line moves and one of the biggest might be injury information take a
situation where the availability of a key player is not known until game day if the
betting split shows a majority of Wagers are on one side were those bets made
before or after the status of this key player was known we don't know simply by
looking at a pie chart lastly and maybe most importantly the why why is the betting
split information showing that the money and the number of bets agree or disagree
you don't know because they're not going to tell you it's incomplete information
and you can only assume to know why and you know what happens when you assume so
you're missing the who the what the where the when and the why when you blindly
follow betting split information but even better is when those betting splits
contradict themselves based on which sports book is providing the information one
of the more misleading applications of this betting split data is the faulty
concept known as reverse line movement spend time around bers who find signal in
these splits and you'll quickly hear about it the theory of reverse line movement
says that when the majority of Wagers are heavily on one side but the line doesn't
react to that and instead moves the opposite direction this is reverse line
movement it's said to be an indicator that the sharp bers or the bookmakers know
something that the public does not now in theory this could be true however in
actuality it fails to have value due to all the same reasons that make betting
splits fallible in the first place there are many different factors that go into
causing a line to move Beyond just sharp action alone there's news injuries and
even weather reports handicapping based on reverse line movement alone is putting
too much weight on something which probably has a different explanation again
you're assuming but the bigger problem with taking your queue based on reverse line
movement is that you're betting after the line has already moved that's not how
sharp betting is done if there were sharp bets they got in earlier not after the
fact by identifying the reverse line movement now a lot of journalists and
reporters like to report on these betting splits it's a constant source of content
for them to report on and I'm sure they think they're providing value to their
readers but it would be far more useful if they could provide some context in the
form of the who the what the where the when and the why next time you see someone
report on betting splits For an upcoming game press them for more context about the
bedding if you can't win simply by analyzing bedding splits or identifying reverse
line movement what ways can you win check out this video which explores the
different ways that sharp Pros win at sports betting I'll see you in there

the video requests that I get most frequently are all bankroll related how do I
build a bankroll how much do I need how much should I be betting well get ready
because I'm going to answer all of them in this [Music] video hi I'm Jack from
unabated I've been a professional Gambler for over 20 years in that time I've
extracted Millions from casinos and now Sports books however everyone starts out
some where and for me it was trying to count cards in Atlantic City in the late
'90s I had just enough knowledge to be dangerous not to the casino's bottom line
but to myself I would save up a few hundred and go take my shot at the six deck
games at the Atlantic City Hilton I was under bankroll and lacked enough discipline
to realize it most of these trips ended with an ejected drive back home and the few
times I won some money those funds were quickly spent elsewhere now just a couple
years later later I was fortunate enough to build a sizable bankroll from internet
casinos of the day and then I was Off to the Races let's start with the basics what
is a bankroll and why do you need it well a bankroll is a cushion it protects you
against the natural swings and streaks of gambling the less you feel the harsh
edges of variance the better off you'll be it's also your nest egg that pile of
money you're sitting on and nurturing into something greater that you can rely upon
someday a bankroll is also a way to disassociate yourself from the money if you're
betting a very small percentage for your bank roll it won't feel like a lot of
money to you it'll be far less stressful now in 1998 the New York Times called Bill
Gates a low roller because he was spotted playing $100 a hand Blackjack at the
Bellagio in Las Vegas shortly after they open now to Bill Gates that's a trivial
amount of money but to me in 1998 when I was first starting betting a $100 would
cause a lump in my throat as my bankroll grew that $100 felt smaller and smaller
that gets to another important point you have your monetary bankroll but you also
have your emotional bankroll you can build up a formative bankroll of money but if
you lack the emotional bankroll you never really had that money to bet with
Stanford Wong once wrote that your bankroll is how much you'd be willing to lose
before you're out of the gambling business let's say I size my bets for a $50,000
bankroll however if a $10,000 downswing happens it would cause me to sour on the
whole concept of betting with an edge well then my bankroll is really $110,000 be
sure your emotional bankroll matches your monetary bankroll be thinking to yourself
at what point does your bet size become uncomfortable this may be the mental hurdle
you have to overcome gradually and as a result having a large bankroll to start
might not be the best path for you now that we've established what a bankroll is
let's address what a bankroll isn't or specifically what bankroll management isn't
there's a lot of people who believe that the key to Winning is how you size your
bets or manage your bank roll the internet is full of various systems of betting
where you bet this and if it loses you double down and bet on this and if that
loses well then you quadruple up on a subsequent game because they never lose three
in a row occasionally I need a loss here and there I won 16 in a row let me repeat
that 16 16 in a row just forget all of that the first thing you need is an edge
we've built unit.com to help betters identify edges in sports betting markets
everything I'm going to say from here on out is predicated on you having an edge in
your bedding and we have plenty of tools to identify edges in a variety of markets
you bring your willingness to work and we help you bet smarter now how you size
your bets and how many units you wager won't be the key to your success but it
could play a role in why you'd fail bankroll management isn't a super secret
formula to winning it's just a process you follow to make sure you're not over
betting relative to your bank roll I've talked about this concept before in our
video with the step-by-step process of winning at sports betting the link to that
video is in the description below however the choice comes down to whether whether
you want to size your bets relative to the edge you have or choose a flat steak to
bet with the first method I mentioned is referred to as Kelly staking named after
John Kelly it's probably the best method for optimal bankroll growth the downside
is that it assumes you can correctly quantify your edge of course in sports betting
there's a lot of variance involved and so you never know exactly what your exact
Edge is and that can be problematic sometimes to get around this most betters use a
fractional approach betting just a half or a quarter of the full Kelly stake the
other method flat staking is as it sounds you bet just a flat percentage of your
bankroll with each bet no matter your Edge this approach tends to work better for
those of you who might be unsure of your Edge typically 1% is the norm it may lead
to under Bing your bankroll but the penalty for undering when you have an edge is
just slower bankroll growth meanwhile the penalty for over betting is a higher risk
of Ruin which as the name implies is pretty bad let me restate one of the key
maxims of Advantage gambling the best thing that you can buy with your winnings is
a bigger bank roll if you're not pumping your winnings back into building a
bankroll you're tossing away the compounding benefits of this entire Pursuit as
your skill grows and as your awareness increases you'll want to be betting more
having a bigger bankroll to do so creates a a money multiplier effect but you won't
reach that level if you're constantly spending all of your winnings if you must
draw out profits from your bedding I'd advise doing so after you've let them
compound in bedding for a while so how much money do you need to get started in
your betting career the answer to that is a bit of an algebra formula where we'll
fill in the variables you know and then solve for why we need to know how much you
desire to make from betting on sports with an edge and how many bets with an edge
you'll be making and what kind of edge you expect to get it's all about the
bankroll churn if you've got a 4% Edge on average then each time your different
Wagers add up to your entire bank roll you can expect to have made a profit equal
to about 4% of your bank roll if you're betting 1% of your bankroll on each bet
that'll take you 100 bets how long will it take you to make 100 Bets with an edge
well if you can identify 10 bets a day where you have an edge then every 10 days
you'll have churned through your bank roll one time if we're always buying a bigger
bank roll with our winnings we'll be compounding those results we can then use the
rule of 72 and divide 72 by our Edge to determine how many bankroll churns it'll
take to double our bankroll in this case it's 18 so now we know that it'll take 10
days times 18 churns to double our bank roll that works out to roughly 180 days or
roughly half a year of course this again assumes we know our exact Edge which in
sports betting is a bit more difficult so your exact growth trajectory may be
different than what the expected growth is just like we do with Kelly betting it
may be wise to take a fraction of these projections to actually Bank on so you can
do these calculations for yourself start with what your Edge is how many bets you
can find in a day then how many bets you'd need to make to have churned your
bankroll one time if you're compounding you can divide 72 by your Edge to determine
how many bankroll CHS it'll take to double your bankroll and then if you'd like you
can adjust for uncertainty by doubling the projected time it'll take everything so
far has assumed you already have an edge or that you already have a starting bank
roll but how do you actually build a starting bank roll for some of you you may
have money saved or set aside from other Ventures maybe you're a casino card
counter who has stumbled across these videos and you're looking to get into sports
betting maybe you've been betting stocks and you want to try your hand at sports
betting if you're starting with an amount less than $10,000 there's a method of
bankroll growth that I think works very well I call it picking the low hanging
fruit I've used the example before where sports betting is like a money tree you'd
be smart to grab the money hanging off low branches if it's there rather than
struggling for money higher Out Of Reach for quite a few years when regulated
sports betting started there were very generous signup offers for new bets you
could easily profit $500 or more per sports book with very little risk with some
states having upwards of 20 sports book Brands it made for a quick bankroll
building a lot of these days have passed us by unfortunately however Sports books
still offer frequent bonuses and promotions not all of these promos have a high
advantage to the players but they do offer a positive expectation to the better
with low risk a good way to grow your bankroll is to take advantage of all of these
promotions that you can if you determine they have an edge for you at unabated we
have a lively Discord server where members frequently post good promos they've seen
that link is in the description below as well remember when I said I built my
bankroll using internet casinos in the early 2000s well that was a lot of promo and
bonus hunting conditions back then were ripe for offshore casinos and rampant
bonuses it was a gold rush I was able to build a six-figure bankroll within a
couple of years and I've never looked back the problem for those of you coming in
with a pre-existing bankroll over $10,000 is that many of those daily sports book
promotions these days are capped at $25 or $50 they can still be useful for padding
your
bankroll but that $5 to $10 evv is less impactful to you so beyond promotions and
bonuses there are bet types that are considered low hanging fruit as well namely
player props player props are a less efficient market and it's easier to find an
edge either based on your own analysis or someone else's analysis not all player
props are the same we've talked before about staying away from the one-sided props
where you can only bet on one side of the wager or and I've mentioned this before
the same game parlays where it's often a poorly priced proposition for betters
however if you're willing to put in a little work analysis and line shopping player
props can be a Cornerstone that's viable for the small to mediumsized bankroll to
build upon in fact we have a tier at unabated just focused on things that a player
prop better would be interested in it's a great way to get a leg up on betting
props both of these approaches have decreasing viability as your bankroll increases
see sportsbooks know that this is lwh hanging fruit and they take measures to
curtail people from just feeding at these levels as I mentioned before promotions
are typically capped and meanwhile a better who just focuses on props may
eventually find their account limited as they become an unprofitable customer for
the sports book another thing to keep in mind if you're starting out with an
extremely small bankroll there's a good chance this may not be worth your time if
you're betting small edges with a small bankroll your expected bankroll growth is
in the tens of dollars a day you might be better off getting a side hustle like
driving for Uber or picking up a part-time shift somewhere and then save that money
to explore bedding later on there are definite pros and cons to starting small and
working your way up on one hand you can learn from your mistake with a very low
cost when you start with a small bank roll on the other hand there's an increased
chance of burning out accounts and getting limited well before you're even betting
meaningful amounts one benefit is that when you start small you'll find it so much
easier to find impactful Value opportunities in the form of low hanging fruit but a
disadvantage to that would be that you're working very long hours finding all that
stuff and your hourly wage could be less than a minimum wage job another Pro might
be that when you start small you're always well within your emotional bankroll but
the con would be that it's just not worth your time and you might lose interest
before you start to see the real monetary gains that can come from sports betting
you'll need to weigh the pros and cons to decide for yourself if it's worth it to
you to many of you the idea of just being able to beat the house is enticing enough
that you're willing to put in the hard work and the grind to make it happen for
more information on what happens if you win too much betting on sports well check
out this video we made and uh I'll see you in there

to many being a professional Gambler might seem like the coolest job ever however
what's it really like to make a living betting on sports I'm going to give you an
inside look at how a professional sports better thinks and then you can decide if
you have what it takes to go pro hi I'm Jack from unabated for the past 20 years
I've made much of my income from beating casinos and sports books on my tax returns
my occupation is list it as professional Gambler it's a job I definitely enjoy but
it's much less glamorous than it appears when I started out Advantage gambling was
just a side hustle for me eventually I reached a point where I couldn't deny that
this was a viable primary source of income so I went pro first you're probably
wondering how someone becomes a professional Gambler well there's no certification
or license you receive the only real delineation for us betters is how you file
your taxes the IRS has a ninepoint checklist to determine whether or not your
Pursuit is a hobby or a profession here are the nine points however they can be
summed up with one simple question do you treat this as a professional business now
a professional better typically has a business plan it's a document where they can
prove to any inquiry that they conduct themselves as a business with a plan for
profit they keep their business funds and their personal funds separate often
utilizing business banking accounts as well as business structures such as an LLC C
or an es Corp a professional better doesn't forecast their future earnings based
solely on past results though a professional better measures things in EV expected
value they're concerned about maximizing expected value above all the actual win
loss in a week or a month is of little consequence as long as the EV was where they
projected it out to be now for those of you who might not know how EV or expected
value is derived it's pretty straightforward the probability your wager wins
multiplied by the amount you win if it does minus the probability your wager loses
multiplied by the amount you lose if it does anyone who's ever fantasized about
quitting their boring 9-to-5 job and becoming a professional Gambler probably bases
their dream on past results maybe they have a good weekend of betting and and they
think they can repeat that 52 times a year or a good month or even a good season
but honestly a serious professional Gambler doesn't use past results they use their
EV how much expected value have they generated and how much can they continue to
generate tracking your expected value isn't always easy but it certainly would be
enlightening if with every bet you make you could see your EV in real time seeing
those numbers increase or decrease would help a lot of people make smarter
decisions professional betters understand this and they focus on ACR the most
possible EV that they can another trait that you'll find in most professional bers
is that they're fairly unemotional and unbiased being a rabid fan of sports usually
comes with some biases that aren't beneficial in betting you can be a fan of a team
but you better be willing to put your fandom aside and bet against them if the
number is Right otherwise you're leaving EV on the table and violating your own
business plan speaking of emotions that's probably the most important thing that
separates the pros from the Joe's being a professional is not about how you handle
wins it's more about how you handle losses there are going to be many many losses
you must be able to take a loss calmly and well professionally you're going to face
bad beats and games that don't go your way for no fault of your own the most
amazing thrilling finish in the history of college football you have to have that
Steely resolve have you ever noticed how some head coaches can be just completely
unfazed immediately after suffering a gut-wrenching defeat they'll shake the hand
of their opponent and then minutes later they'll go to face the media as if
everything is under control well I try to imagine that I'm the head coach of this
betting team and now I have to go face the media even after a tough loss it's not
always easy but the alternative is not a productive path you see the natural urge
is to recoup that loss as quickly as possible maybe make a bigger bet to offset
that loss and get you back to where you should have been in terms of profit but
that's never the best path either you're making a negative expected value wager and
digging yourself an EV hole or if it's a positive EV wager you may be over betting
your bankroll relative to your Edge and that's a recipe for disaster as well the
true professional accepts losses as a cost of doing business they focus on the long
run and rest in the knowledge that they banked some positive EV that they'll end up
manifesting later down the line if you haven't picked up on it already being a
professional Gambler requires discipline a person who struggles with self-
discipline typically doesn't make for a good professional Gambler of course we all
have our shortcomings but if one of your vices is reckless gambling then you're not
going to be able to bury those urges easily just by focusing on grinding out edges
in sports betting in fact what I've seen happen plenty of times is that winning
sports betting just allows the bad gambling Behavior to heat up under the surface
undetected there's a reason they put the sports book at the back of the casino they
want to tempt you with every other game in the house on your way in or out and if
you're betting online in a state that has both online Sports books and online
casinos you're going to have to weather a lot of cross marketing they want you to
play in the casino another important difference for professional bers is how they
view money to a professional better money is a tool and it's necessary for them to
apply their craft just as a skilled Craftsman wouldn't want to be careless with
their tools a professional better shouldn't be careless with their money that
includes what we just discussed with chasing losses but it also includes how they
look at wins a professional better doesn't think of money won or lost as something
material if I lose $2,000 I don't think of that as a luxury watch I've just lost
conversely if I win 2,000 I don't go out and buy that watch the best thing you can
buy with your winnings is a bigger bankroll of course when sports betting is a
primary source of your income you have to account for drawing on your winnings to
pay for life expenses but you'll find out that a lot of true professionals tend to
live fiscally responsible Lifestyles for many professional gamblers making money
from gambling is a means to an end they intend to work hard profiting from betting
in order to set up passive income scenarios down the line I know a lot of extremely
wealthy people who got their start in sports betting and gambling and parlayed that
into success in real estate business ownership and other investment opportunities
that brings me to another important tradeit of professional betters they work hard
gambling as they say is a hard way to make an easy living and that's true of
professional betters when you are self-employed it's tough to ever turn off the
work part of your brain you're always thinking about your business and how you can
improve Pro on it living a balanced lifestyle can be difficult when you're a
professional better one of the reasons I transitioned into sports betting is
because it's significantly cut down on the amount of travel that I'd have to do
however sporting events happen almost 24 hours a day so my betting business could
be theoretically open 24 hours a day if I let it so it can reach a point of
overload very quickly another item that gets underestimated is how much a
professional better needs to adapt to change no angle lasts forever I can list off
dozens of of great things I used to bet on with a significant Edge that have either
disappeared or that I can no longer get an edge on that's why a lot of professional
bets like to network with other Pros there's a lot to gain by having a trusted
Circle to work with or to exchange ideas with what are some of the ways prob
betters find what to bet on well check out this video here and you'll see exactly
how that works I'll see you in there

all right YouTube how you doing welcome back to the channel in today's video we're
diving into a highly requested video we're going to be looking at my NFL player
prop research process I guess it's technically a portion of the process a massive
portion at that but if you guys do want to see all of the ins and outs make sure to
comment down below and let me know if you want to see more videos like this one now
what we look at here can be transferred to NBA MLB today we are focusing on the NFL
and we're using a tool called outlier I've talked about outlier for years here on
the channel and we do have a 7-Day free trial link in the pin comment as well as
the description everything we talk about here you can find for free out there on
the internet so it's not like you need outlier to do this I just would highly
highly recommend outlier cuz it makes it all super easy quick and it's a One-Stop
shop so go try it 7 days free the way I want to kind of bucke tize I don't even
know if that's a word but we'll use it bucke ties this approach is in four major
categories we have player hit rates defense against player volume in the stat
category or lack thereof and then last but not least is going to be the odds we're
getting in how valuable that line or odds is or are compared to the competitive
Sports books out there it'll all Mak sense as we go through this video so let's
jump into it hit that like button hit that subscribe button again comment down
below if you guys want more videos like this so this is the outlier home screen if
you wanted to come in and just find easy easy trending plays you can come in filter
their insights tab to players and you'll see all of these lines for example Kirby
Joseph has failed to exceed one and a half assists nine of his last 10 games7
assists per game on average minus 140 on DraftKings you can check it out and do all
that but where I like to start is actually right here on the props tab this is
going to have every prop that is out there on all of the major sports books
available for us to dig into and fine-tune now when you think about outlier I want
you to think of like a slab of concrete or stone and we're going to Chisel away to
make an amazing statue maybe one of me maybe one of you let's not kid ourselves
more chins more wins we're making a statue of me but anyways here we go at the top
of this player prop screen again we have all the props available I'm doing this on
the morning of a Monday night football game so um there's still tons and tons out
there but there's usually a lot more especially for the NFL you know on Friday
Saturday Sunday morning that type of thing now before we chisel away at the slab of
stone here you can see what we're seeing you can see what we're seeing I guess that
makes total sense all of these props and lines available you can see the sports
books they're offered at you can see the implied probability based on the average
odds you could see the opponent's rank as well as the last five Trend the last 10
Trend head-to-head against that team last year's Trend and this year's Trend so
really cool stuff right off the bat like I said we want to Chisel away right so
what we'll do here is usually I'm trying to fine-tune this and look at specific
plays for specific games so I'll filter to one game to kind of you know again we've
said chisel a million times but chisel down these results here so let's look at the
Titans Dolphins here now you can do this for all of them you don't need to um in
terms of over under I know a lot of people might want to just bet overs I'm fine
with taking an under so we'll leave that alone in terms of odds I don't really want
to be looking at things that are overly juice so I'll usually set it to minus 150
even though that's stretching it and then from the Plus money perspective the
highest odds right I also am not really interested in these like plus 300 plus 400
type of plays because though if they hit that's amazing it kind of just clutter the
screen at least that just suits me but you can set this odd range to whatever you
want so we'll do 200 in this case you can also look at it from an applied
probability standpoint AK these odds just broken down into a percentage but I like
the odds cuz to me it just correlates right to the money that we could be getting
versus the money we're risking but we will apply that you can keep scrolling over
here and then the hit rate is very very important now we can go last five last 10
head de 2024 2023 because we're looking at the NFL and obviously early in the year
I'm going to go 2024 and I'm going to say you need to be at least you know just
over 50% so we'll go 51% to this line now a lot of people that I know would go you
know 75 or 60 yes you're going to see a bunch of um you know more successful hit
rates on the year but NFL is so matchup dependent I do want to see guys that maybe
they've only cashed you know two of four weeks or something like that or one of two
weeks if they were missing a game and if they have a great match up it's still
something that's worth considering in my opinion so we'll apply this 51 Plus in
terms of a percentage um if you want to look at specific players go for it if you
want to look at specific types of props go for it but I'll leave this all blank for
now and now we can kind of start getting into this so I'll start right here we have
it filtered to last 10 um obviously I kind of want to look at 2024 because that's
the hit rate sort of range that we gave so we'll filter to 2024 you can also go
last five whatever suits you but what I'm going to be looking for here is obviously
we have a ton of 100% cuz we're only three games into the NFL season but all of a
sudden I start looking around I say okay well 18th 18th this is the opponent's
defense or offense the opponent's rank against so we're looking for something that
lights it up green for example um Jordan Brooks here under four and a half tackles
he's hit in 100% of the games but Tennessee to his position here or at least to the
opposing team following the third most tackles they're ranked 30 so that's not
really what I would look at it's actually a favorable match up for him I'm not
interested in an under so we'll keep going through here and oh okay here we go Nick
Folk under five and a half kicking points I'm going to press this plus button and
what this is going to do is add it down to my picks over here we can dig back into
this a little bit later but I'm just going through and kind of creating some plays
that jump out to me so we'll keep going down Nick folks there again we can add him
in um here we have chinga konu 10th for Miami in terms of how they cover this stat
so we'll add that on there um kind of same thing there we don't need to add it
twice keep going three okay Jordan puyer over two and a half assist Jordan Brooks
over two and a half assist so remember up here we saw Jordan Brooks at tackles but
now we're talking about assists okay that's something that we can add in add that
in as well you can see all these assist assist assist 31st in terms of Tennessee's
ranking so this is obviously a decent spot and we know they've hdden at least two
of three games like I mentioned we're just kind of putting together a pool of plays
that we're considering these are not just bet it and forget it blindly take type
picks because there's a lot more research on outlier that we have to do heading
into this so we have a bunch of plays here let's look at say this will Levis
passing yards one because um it just popped up and it's kind of a nice looking stat
right nice looking betting category quarterback passing yards so we're going to
Dive Right In and break this one down so we'll filter to this year just so we can
see what he's doing you can see week one he doesn't hit this line um we have the
under for plus money apparently right now right plus money on Caesars he hit the
under week one under week two went over against Green Bay but you could see here
that Miami is actually the 11th best team in terms of passing yards against they
also have line movement so we know we're getting so we know that he's only hit this
once this season last 10 games he's at the under in five head-to-head he went over
them last year and what I like about this is outlier has this little insights Tab
and you can see what it says will Levis has failed to exceed 199 in four of his
last five games on the road averaging 165.024 we could say show only away games
they're going to throw the ball uh you know 60 plus per of times we'll see what
that goes to essentially I'm showing you guys you have all the customizable
features that you really want we'll close this one up you can see we have his last
10 games pulled up and our line was right around here right under 196 half we could
scroll down here and see the team rankings offense for the Titans versus the
defense of the Miami Dolphins for 2024 and you can see here passing they're 11th
best so far Tennessee doesn't look all that great that's really good to see even
third down they're bad at you know Miami looks very good at it last 10 games
they've thrown the ball 58% of the time he's averaging a 61 1% completion rate
which instead of just looking at passing yards here we can even look at okay well
passing completion how do they rank okay well they're still green looks pretty good
but a lot of teams are throwing on them so there's volume so we're looking at
passing yards but just by filtering to pass completions we can now see the defense
against we can also see Chicago New York and then Green Bay he's gotten better and
better in terms of passer rating but one thing I'll mention Chicago good defense
New York Jets good defense Green Bay not exactly the best of defenses right so now
we're starting to learn that okay well we're seeing a team that um you know or a
player that is getting better and better
 but it almost like the competition's getting worse and worse so where do we rank
that Miami team again they're top 10 team in terms of passing yards allowed you can
also see how many bad throws he's had how many dropped throws he had three last
week in a game in which he went over Target percentage in terms of his throw being
on target average pocket time hurries all of these are down here as well you can
see how comfortable this team will be now um average pocket time at 2.9 it's been
right around three this year you could see that QB hits QB hurries and sacks are
not exactly something that Miami is going to pressure him in so overall I would say
that this is a decent look at an under especially when we see that it's plus 100
minus odds on all other books but we haven't exactly seen everything and anything
to put it over the top right but now we know that this is a decent Miami defense
against the pass will Levis has steadily improved though the competition has
steadily gone down defensively so if you can make an argument for both sides this
will stay in the picks but not exactly something that we love right and if Miami is
good at preventing quarterbacks from hitting their passing yards we can kind of
correlate to the receiver right and that's all part of this process right we're
again we're chiseling down that stone we know we're not that comfortable with Le
now let's look at Chi here so he crushed this line end of last year right this year
he stayed under in each of the three games Miami a little bit worse at preventing
yards to the tight end but still good through the air as we know he's only getting
two three and two Targets which is only good enough whereas he all the way down
here for 8% of targets this season now this this is one I like to look at to
average yards per reception have been 7 and 1/2 5 1/2 and 7 and 1/2 right per game
so he's averaging 6.8 on the season right now the over for his 2 and 1 half catches
is absolutely an underdog play right so minus 189 so good implied probability that
they don't think he's going to have three catches if he has two catches times again
when we look at his yards that's 6.8 if he has two we're only looking at 14 yards
in a spot in which he's hit the under in three straight games and he's not getting
the target looks so I think chianu could be a good play here and I'm not really
seeing much that makes me not like it see - 110 on DK -15 on MGM minus1 121 and
Caesar so there's a little bit of value there on DraftKings and or bet 365 and say
we did like this on DraftKings right you can come in here continue in browser it's
going to open it right up you don't even have to go digging for it and it's going
to place it right into your slip now if I was logged in we could play this really
quick right here boom we could throw in anything we wanted we don't have to go
digging for it we're on the DraftKings home screen and it's already in our bed slip
so that's really cool that outlier does that guys you could do this like I said for
any game any sport say we wanted to look at um you know let's clear all of these
say we wanted to look at the other game that's on tonight which would be the
Seahawks and lions you could filter to both of them you can filter to the one of
them and you can kind of go through and dig in um shanet 24th for Detroit again
we're looking at the hit rate plus the opponent's defense and we want to make sure
like I said the volume is there so that hit rate's important the book that you're
looking at in terms of price is important we love the defense against but that
biggest thing would be the volume and like I already mentioned with someone like uh
taking the under for chig the volume's not there it's a lack there of volume so I
like that Zach Charon here over 10 and a half receiving yards let's see if the
volume is there he's getting you know three five and four targets per game here
average yards per reception 9.6 it's definitely skewed by week number one but this
might be another look as well because again if he's looked to get two and a half
catches say two catches right his receiving yards is at 12 and a half two catches
at his current average yards per reception 9.6 last five this season 8.7 we could
be looking at him getting 18 yards even if he only gets two catches based on his
yards per perception one other thing that I think is really cool you can go in here
and say games with player Kenneth Walker was out last week right but now he's
playing so we want to see um how he's done with Ken Kenneth Walker that is with
player there and we can obviously go down here and see okay well last two games
with Kenneth Walker he actually performed really well last season this year one
game with Kenneth Walker and he soared over that was week one against Denver his
last five with Kenneth Walker actually his last three here 39 28 29 now the one
thing we want to look at defense versus position which is something that could keep
us off of this play is the fact that okay well that looks good right Detroit's
receiving yards well how about to the running back specifically oh they're the
number one team at stopping them right last time he played them again we have with
Kenneth Walker still in there he did have 14 yards on two Targets um and two
receptions so there's just so many directions you can go in here and it's all in
one spot that's why I love outlier so much but again to kind of summarize and again
that's a huge portion of the research there is a lot more that we can do using
different sites and whatnot so let me know in the comments if you want more of an
expanded or extended version of this but quickly through outlier we can look at the
hit rate we can look at the defense against we can get the best odds possible and
then that volume is one that people sleep on a lot for example say a receiver had
hit his unders in three straight weeks he has 20 targets a game at some point that
other shoe is going to drop and he's probably going to start playing well volume
volume volume super super important but I like to marry it up with the fact that we
have a good hit rate we have a good match up for them and we're not getting screwed
in terms of the odds we're taking like if you only had DraftKings or FanDuel and
you're looking at a play but both of those are the two worst odds out there it may
make me sort of pump the brakes a little and say yeah let's not go for that one
there's better pricing out there either I want to sign up for that sports book
which we have sign up bonuses in the pinned comment or we stay away from it for
tonight but guys hopefully that helped let me know in the comments again if you
want to see more if you want me to break down outlier even more go ahead and let me
know in the comments check out outlier that link is in the PIN comment 7 days free
catch you guys in the next one right peace out

all right YouTube how you doing welcome back to the channel in today's video I'm
going to be diving into my personal NBA player prop sports betting strategy it's
something that I get asked in comments all the time and we discuss it a lot in the
Discord by the way guys we have completely free Discord that link is in the
description as of right now we're just under 10k members talking about sports all
day long go ahead and join again completely free but anyways my NBA strategy in
terms of player props and finding the plays there is something that a lot of people
ask for and I've always been one to say hey let's peel back the curtain no 's
hiding anything here it's okay to share something that is a secret because it's not
a secret it's all public information that if you know where to look you can
honestly find what you need to find so let's jump into it again this is my personal
NBA player prop strategy it's ever changing by the time you guys are watching this
may be something that I'm adding in something that I'm stripping out but
essentially this is the core basic day-to-day process that I'm going through hit
that like button hit that subscribe button let's jump in so I do use a lot of paid
for tools to find these plays and just SA save time but everything we look at in
this video will be completely free and I'll have links to everything whether or not
you want to sign up for the paid for tools or you want to go through and have the
extra hours of work with the free tools I'll have all of that Linked In the pin
comment for you guys to check out so depending on which way you want to go now one
is obviously more convenient it does cost a little bit the other one you can do
every single day completely free it's just more manual and timec consuming so I
know a lot of people like to roll with their favorite players or things that they
think they know but I am very data driven and number oriented when making my sports
pick player prop specific and I don't care if it's LeBron James or the last guy on
the bench if I think the number support taking aside I will do that and the first
step is honestly isolating the games and finding where there is a weakness and then
I find the player to match the weakness so I do not start with the player I start
with the void in a sense so like I said there are some paid for tools and some free
tools we'll do it both ways this is actually a dashboard that I have created
completely by myself and imported with with coding and whatnot but it's in Google
Sheets and it helps me kind of get a bird's eye view and a very general thought on
the game before even having to dig through multiple sites and whatnot so these
things are all imported from nba.com teamrankings.com that type of thing so just
for example I picked a random NBA game tonight it's not going to matter when this
video comes out cuz this will be in the past but I'll kind of show you what I'm
looking for in terms of that void so right here we do have all of the team stats
for the season when they're at home when they're on the road or in the last three
we have field goal percenting uh field goal percentage shooting in the last 10
games in terms of where on the court and again this is all stuff that you can find
I'll show you in a second for free and then also over here is team shooting Zone
frequency in the last 10 so how often do they shoot from these specific parts of
the court so the ones that I want to focus on for player props are going to be
points in the paint allowed and points from three allowed as well as how often do
these two teams shoot from there and I guess it's worth saying here obviously there
are games so this is the NBA slate tonight you can Target games if you are looking
to roll with some some more overs rather than unders I don't think it should matter
you should feel just as confident in under as an over but if you are someone that
likes the entertainment of an over make sure you're looking at the game totals that
is a great starting point the game that has the highest total means there's going
to be a lot more opportunity for statistics in that game so if you want to do the
manual work and find these stats that I already have pulling in in a dashboard
format both of them are on nba.com so you can go into Advance stats go to opponent
shooting and then overall opponent shooting I have it filtered to the last 10 games
and buy zone right here but what you can see is okay so we're looking at the Nets
in the Bulls right you can see where these teams rank in terms of field goal
percentage against in the paint in the restricted area mid-range left corner three
right corner Three Corner three in general and above the break three so what we
really want to focus on is restricted area in the paint Corner three and then above
the break mid-range gets a little dicey because it's not as relevant in the NBA but
yes if you wanted to go to that depth you can do that as well but so here we have
this again it's opponent shooting overall opponent shooting by Zone and then in
advance filter you can say last 10 games again this is just my process if you want
to go last seven games last 15 games be my guest keep an eye on the pin comment for
all of these links if you do want to check this out so we're looking to see if
there's anything notable about the Bulls or the Nets and you can see right here
Nets in terms of restricted area kind of middle of the pack Bulls right there with
them right kind of middle of the pack so nothing major in term of the in terms of
the 30 teams in the NBA nothing really outstanding about the restrict are okay and
we're filtering from highest field goal percentage to lowest because we were
looking for the potentiality of a player to be able to score in the paint or from
mid-range or from the corner or from three if we notice that all of a sudden these
teams are way down the bottom then we can start thinking unders but I just filter
highest to lows cuz it works for me so all of a sudden boom in the paint Bulls at
the top so are the Nets so we're making a note now in the paint for either one of
these squads might be a soft spot right bu's the number three team in terms of
highs fial percentage Nets the number five team very important to note left corner
and right corner I don't always specify we do have that in the dash spard left
corner and right corner obviously I'm more likely to look at corner three just in
general and okay the Nets are kind of up there but not all that crazy what is that
the 11th team and the Bulls kind of middle of the pack so not much opportunity from
a corner 3 perspective and above the break three will move the camera so you guys
can see it which if you don't know what that means using the visual here it's above
that break in the corner so the corner of the NBA 3 has that straight line it's
anything that's on the upper Arc anyways okay here we are so above the break three
we see the Nets actually allowing the highest field goal percentage in the entire
league over the last 10 games two opposing players from three and then the Bulls
also in the top what is this 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 so I would head over here and be able
to look at this outside of just the last 10 games to confirm the Nets actually have
been decent defensively on the season against the three so last 10 games maybe not
so much but the Bulls yeah bottom 10 team in terms of points from three allowed
paint points allowed okay you could see the Bulls also really struggling there as
well so now based on the last 10 games and kind of what we've seen for the season
what I would get out of that which again it was points in the paint for the Bulls
terms of field goal percentage allowed in the paint field goal percentage for the
Nets and then we saw both teams from the three-point range kind of be soft right
but I think I'm looking at now Chicago on the soft side in terms of both points in
the paint allowed as well as the three ball okay so at this time we've already
narrowed it down we're looking at one specific game and we've now narrowed down we
want to look at Chicago they're soft in the paint and they haven't been covering
the three that well let's start finding players to place into those voids hopefully
we have a square hole for these opportunities and we find some Square players and
they go right in and using that analogy of the square and a square you know the
saying of putting a square peg in a circle hole whatever vice versa had we not
looked at where the Chicago Bulls are kind of soft defensively we might take
someone that prefers to score all their buckets right at The Rim or from mid-range
you like them CU they're a big Nam something like that but that's not actually
where the defensive weakness is so also here on nba.com you can go to players
shooting and then you can also look at buy Zone again I look at the last 10 games I
think it's the most relevant your Advanced filters you can do whatever you want
with find something that works for you right here with this filter you can head
over to this instead of saying player I go to Team and again we're looking for
Brooklyn Nets players that now score in the paint or at least shoot in the paint as
well as the above the break three so we can type in Brooklyn cuz we're looking at
Brooklyn players and you have all of those same zones right but now we're looking
at it from a player perspective so in the paint right here who shoots most in the
paint okay Cam Thomas Watford Dennis shudder Ben Simmons Nick Claxton but
realistically I look at the top three and though the Bulls weren't all that
ridiculous in terms of the restricted area we can look at the restricted area in
the paint kind of in the same thing so if there's anyone like we filtered this and
all of a sudden Dennis shuder Nick claxon are at the top so Dennis shudder has been
the constant name and I guess Nick claxon as well
I just kind of use that as a second degree of measure if Dennis shuder is the
third most in the paint and the most restricted area shooter maybe that's something
that we want to consider now we also know above the break three right so we'll
filter to that and would you look at that Dennis shudder also leading the Nets in
above the break threes so now we have where the Bulls are soft defensively we have
those marked in the paint and three ball above the break three specifically and we
already know there's one player in particular that kind of Rises to the top on the
Nets roster that likes to shoot from in the paint and that leads the team in the
above the break fre per game attempts now in my dashboard I do have a built out
defense verse position last seven games and I can go right to this and say okay
well points rebounds assists three-pointers I can see where the Bulls rank but
another tool that is completely free is fantasy pros and we know Dennis shudder is
the point guard so we can go to point guard you have the option of this season last
seven last 15 last 30 you can even look at last year I like to look at last seven
or last 15 so we'll start with last 15 right we want to see points per game so we
filter it to highest okay Bulls last 15 games literally allowing the most points
per game two opposing point guards now when looking at fantasy pros the green means
it's a good match up for your player the orange brown whatever that mean means it's
a bad we filter the last seven just to help us out here okay terms of points
they're still up there 29.4 so that's good right because in terms of tennis shoter
versus the Bulls we knew that he likes to score in the paint and he likes to shoot
the three ball but we had no sort of position specifics as of right then and there
but luckily enough the Bulls struggle against point guard specifically the way a
wrench could have got thrown in there and I'm kind of glad it worked out because I
didn't plan that but the way that that could kind of have a wrench thrown in like I
mentioned was if okay well Dennis shuder leads the Nets in points in the excuse me
field goal attempts in the paint and field goal attempts from above of the break
three but the Bulls are superstars against covering the point guard then it would
be kind of like up in the air now we have enough to be like maybe we don't touch
shudder even though he leads the team in attempts from those spots on the floor so
we are looking for opportunities like this in which we find the position that fits
the shooting zones that fit there go the player that fits and guys it is it is
sports betting we can have all this information at our disposal and the guy could
still flop we know that but having all of this information and it's not even all of
it it's just what we have so far should lead you to more confident plays when
you're pressing that button yourself and if you are watching at this point in the
video let me know what you think in the comments is this more than what you do on
the daily right now have you learned anything here because I'd love to make more
and more videos like this cuz we get this question like I mentioned a ton now we're
going to head over to a tool called outlier everything in here again can be found
for free but this is an amazing tool and it's priced amazingly in the description
you'll have a link for a 7-Day free trial you can try it yourself and then even
after that 7 days $19.9 9 cents per month you hit a couple bangers with this it's
going to pay for itself so go check out outlier but again all of this information
you can find manually this is just the most convenient way of doing it so we want
to look at Dennis shudder right and by the way before we do jump into Dennis shuder
specifically I am using points as an example right but even when we were looking at
fantasy pros and that type of thing you saw all of those other stats so this same
process minus the shooting zones and whatnot can be applied to rebounds and assists
three-pointers made all that type of stuff but I feel like at least to keep this
concise and keep it kind of stream line it would make sense if we focused on points
which we're doing here so here we are on Dennis Shooter's page we have points
selected there's a ton of guys injured for the net so his line is going to be a
little high that may be a reason why I don't jump on it or something like that
right cuz they're just begging you to take him because of all the injuries fact
with out liar you can see the injuries in one place as well Joe all injured you can
see the Nets bogdanovich he's still out obviously Clowney finny Smith cam Johnson
game time decision Ben Simmons cam Thomas is a is out as well so a lot of guys out
but that's what's cool about outlier we can even create the situation right now
he's shooting the ball a ton as of late and that's most likely due to injuries if
we do want to filter we can say okay well cam Thomas he's been one of the leading
scorers for the Nets he's out that's why the shooter line is inflated he's hitting
one of the three games so far this year we could filter to away games one of one so
far this year and you can even see up here remember that this is Chicago against
the point guard kind of validates what we found earlier right and he shot the ball
21 times he played 34 minutes so now let's strip these away right and if we're
going to think that he's going to shoot 2 times let's take a peek at him if he
plays 34 plus minutes okay so four of 10 this season on the road two of his last
three but looking at this how many times did he shoot over 20 so right here he shot
over 20 only finished with 20 points 39% from the field he has a 43% shooter on the
year in these situations over here he had 29 Points that was with 21 attempts so if
we do the math here we're seeing that when he's shooting the ball 21 19 23 times
he's either coming very close or crushing this line now one thing to look at too if
we want to take it a step further is looking at these two were they kind of fit the
bill right played a lot of minutes he shot the ball ton but he didn't hit this over
you can see right here in terms of where the Celtics rank right below his point
total they rank eighth in points allow Orlando first in points allow not hitting in
these two games might have been that match up you can see Phoenix in which he did
crush this line he shot the ball 21 times played 34 minutes Phoenix towards the top
of the league in terms of points per game to the point guard this is a very very
very high line for what he's normally looking at right even if we reset all filters
you can see Dennis shter is only averaging 18.68% we saw him land at 20 multiple
times four of 11 in terms of hit rate on the road on the season 6 of 19 you filter
it down to 19 and half all of sudden it's 10 of 19 more than half of the games so
that Dennis shter prop may be one that we kind of contemplate and think about to be
honest the way that I would end up looking at that and we do have more videos
coming out uh more related to this so I don't want to give it all away in just this
video but the way I would look at that is I mentioned it right that seems like a
super super high line maybe there is more opportunity from like a same game parlay
perspective where we can say okay well Dennis shter 15 plus points obviously the
odds are going to be crap we're not going to roll with that on its own but if we
can find one other thing in that game of value we canare with that cuz we know we
feel really good about sher's performance it's just marrying it to the line seems
like it's a little bit high and that's mostly because of the injuries on the Nets
if the Nets were fully healthy and we had like a 15 and 1 Half Point sign for
Dennis shter if we were that lucky it would be all systems go cuz every box was
checked he fits the bill for where the Bulls struggle in terms of shot zones as
well as the position they struggle against both last 15 and last seven and even
when we dug into the situation and the minutes and the field goal attempts things
kind of check out as well so though we may not be fully rolling with that Dennis
shudder play for today hopefully you guys are able to see through that process and
analyzation some tidbits that you can learn from and again guys we spend hours and
hours a day doing this so it's really hard for me to just put into a video like
this but hopefully it does help you out if you do have questions let me know in the
comments make sure to follow me on in Instagram at well fpix EVP i c KZ so fpx pix
with a z you can DM me there if you have questions I'll try and get back to as much
as I can but this is just a little a little drop of what we go through on the daily
I know I went through it really quick but these types of videos I feel like are
super super important cuz I hate the idea of the people out there acting like they
have some secret sauce and they don't want to show you as if it would impact them
no we should all be on the same side here so if I can take these two curtains and
open them up I don't mind doing so let me know you guys thought guys hit that like
button hit that subscribe button and catch you guys in the next one right peace out

making money on prize picks DraftKings or any other app is not easy but I've done
it and so can you I have won over $5,000 of profit from prize picks and this is how
I did it before we talk about strategy let's talk about how reputable I am I
already showed you my prize picks profit right there lifetime net winnings means
profit I'm up over $5,700 on prize picks as you can see right there and here are
some but not all of the withdrawals that I made from prize picks right here I
withdrew $1,500 had about $4,700 on my prize picks account before I started to
withdraw you see right here $1,100 right there $1,200 right there and $1,000 right
there and I was not even making deposits into this app either the only time I've
deposited into this app was 2022 all the way back in 2022 and I deposited about
$100 into prize picks that's it I was playing with that ever since and I was able
to turn that $100 into over $5,000 of profit and now that I've showed you the
receipts let's hop in and start talking about strategy what I consider the most
important thing when it comes to sports betting or playing on these DFS apps is
units bankroll management is extremely important for example if you had $500 in
your prize pick account if you're doing $5 to $10 per lineup that's is about 1 to
2% of your bank roll a lot of people it depends on their unit size so what units
are is is a percentage of your bankroll essentially so that can be either 1% to 5%
is what most people tend to do as you can see from this chart right there so for
example if you just throw $100 in a prize picks you can just kind of limit yourself
down from there if you were to do 5% which is what I personally started out doing I
put about $5 on every single lineup that I made on prize picks it may not seem like
a lot to just do $5 on like a two pick power play on prize picks but if you're
doing multiple a day it's definitely going to add up and cut into your $100 that
you have in your price Pi account and like I said earlier I started with $100 in my
price pick account doing $5 on two big Power plays and if you're going to do this
every day or every two days that is going to add up like I showed you guys earlier
I started with $100 in my account I turned that into over $5,000 on price picks by
using this method right here stick to your units don't be putting you know half of
your bank roll 50% of your bank roll on one play expecting it to hit that could
work out for some but for the majority of people that is not going to work and
they're going to blow through their bank roll immediately now I want to talk about
promos because taking advantage of these promos on all these apps that are out
there prize pick sleeper chalkboard they all offer a crazy amount of promos prize
picks they have two promos mainly tackle Tuesday and flex Friday both great Promos
in my mind sleeper they do constant discounts that are like taco Tuesday on I
believe Wednesdays in Sundays chalkboard they constantly offer free squares and
when chalkboard offers those free squares it's like two in a single day so these
apps if you take advantage of these promos and even just these promos you can grind
your bank R like crazy but let's also talk about here the promos that priz picks
offer specifically first off here price Pi has two different promos they have taco
Tuesday and they have the protected play Let's talk about Taco Tuesday real quick
because a lot of people like to put their tinfy hat on and think that taco Tuesdays
are terrible they're cursed all that all that different stuff but last year in 2023
these tacos there were 174 of them per prize picks and 136 of them ended up cashing
that is 78% if that taco hits you only need one more play just throw to throw in
there in a two pick power play in order to profit that way Flex Friday is pretty
straightforward you know what misses you get your money back in promo fun it's a
really really awesome promo I like it a lot personally I do five pick flexes for my
Flex Fridays I know a lot of you guys are probably trying to do this every single
day possibly every two days or so but if you're more of a casual player on these
DFS player prop sites you just playing this on on Friday Flex Fridays on Friday and
playing taco Tuesdays on Tuesday it's going to be really really hard for you to
kind of lose money honestly on these apps if you uh only take advantage of these
promos that these apps offer it's a really really good way to kind of uh get a
bankroll going for sure let's now talk about the play type that I personally do on
prize picks how I was able to build my bank roll was off of two pick power play so
for example playing Devon Booker and car Towns over points together that's a two
pick power play it pays out three extra money if both of those end up hitting even
though that was what I personally did it wasn't the best suped value technically
the best payout and the best bang for your buck compared to sports books is doing
five pick flexes and six pick flexes actually five pick Flex that pays out 10 extra
money if you get all five correct 2x for four correct or 0.4x if you get three
correct six pick flexes are pretty similar 25x for six 2x for five correct and then
point four for getting four out of the six correct this is the best expected value
in the best bang for your buck but that's not what I'm saying to do personally I
play two big Power plays strictly it just kind of limits the risk for me personally
especially when I'm playing 5% of my bankroll typically I don't want to be throwing
away 5% potentially you know in a bunch of five piic flexes or six flexes that
don't really have a super high chance to end up hitting but occasionally I would
throw like 2 and a half% on a five pck Flex along with some of my two-p pick power
plays that's personally what I did and I was able to build my bankroll personally
my favorites are the five pick flexes and the two-p pick power plays let's talk
about the worst play type on prize picks please please please stay away from this
play type the three pick flexes or three power plays these are absolutely terrible
these give you terrible terrible value and it's just it's just all around terrible
it really really is 3p power play pays out 5x which is terrible especially compared
to some other player prop apps out there Underdog and Dabble those are the two apps
that are in DFS player prop states that offer 6X payouts on three picks that's
actually some of the best expected value plays you can find on a DFS app so if
you're Underdog or dabble three picks if you're on prize picks five pick flexes and
six pick flexes are the best expected value although personally I do prefer for the
two-p pick power plays and now let's talk about how to find those winning plays
there are a couple different ways to find winning plays I'm going to talk about how
to tail other winning players like me and the tools that I use for my research
first I want to point out whether you're tailing a Capper on Twitter or a dub club
like myself you guys can get in for free with the link down in my description or
even a buddy make sure that you do your own research there'll be times where you
agree with the reasoning for a play or a time that you disagree with the reasoning
for a play make sure you guys pay attention to that and just follow your gut
because your gut is possibly more likely than some of these other guys out out
there giving out plays there's also a lot of people out there who actually aren't
winning players but they try to act like they are or they try to act like they are
better than they are so for example please people just give out really bad reasons
for a play and they end up missing I've seen a plenty of plenty of people on
Twitter have plays in accounts that just blow up by giving terrible reasonings and
missing their player props they give out stats from a player's season from like
2017 or 3 to four years ago and things that don't even matter when researching for
a player prop you have to look around and find players that are actually good at
what they do and always listen to yourself read their writeups make sure you pay
attention to what you're putting your own money on and do your own research now
let's start talking about research the PID tool that I use is called prop. Cash
it's in the description code DMG for 25% off it's only $15 for the first month as
an awesome app as well so if you're trying to do this like every single day I do
personally recommend this I've been using for over two years before I even partner
with them but I'm also going to talk about some free options a little bit later in
this video but if you're interested in props docash this is to I've been using
every single day for over two years and what I personally do when finding my player
props is I click on a player like Kevin Durant I look at their last 10 games not
their hit rate but I'd like to focus more on their minutes when I'm recording this
video it is in the NBA playoffs currently you can see that his minutes have been
training up in some of these playoff games here like these last two playoff games
he's played 38 minutes and 39 minutes in the last couple games so I like to adjust
the minute slider here to games where he's seen 34 plus minutes he's seen that in
eight straight games I don't know why he would not see that today you can find more
of a pure hit rate right here you also want to factor in some things like Grayson
Allen being in or out or being a game time decision today you want to focus on
games with Devon Booker playing and with Bradley Beal playing because some of those
games where he went over was with those guys being out look at his hit right now
with Beal and Booker playing and 34 plus minutes he's only over 47% of games when
most people who don't factor that in you'll see that he's over in 59% of the games
and think it's a much
better play when in reality a lot of those games where he went over is because of
injuries and things like that to a team but with prop. cash you can also find track
record for players on the road when they are in wins or losses and when they are on
one of two days of rest three days of rest whatever it is how they are on Tuesdays
for example how they've been against a team in the past their five their last five
games last 30 games there's a lot of really cool data points on this tool right
here which is why I personally use it every single day but Sports books they know
what they're doing they're a billion dollar company they have the best of the best
people setting these lines so figure out why a line is a certain way and figure out
how you can exploit it to find the best value MLB season is here and it's here to
stay until like October so let's talk a little bit about the MLB for example let's
take Yoshida here you can see right here what I like to focus on is the splits you
see right here how he has been against righties and how Ben Lively the picture
that's playing him today in the time of this recording uh against a lefty you can
see right here that he is allowing a 296 batting average right now to lefties while
Yoshida is really really good against righties this is what it's called a very very
good split because Yoshida is really good against righties while Lively is not very
good against lefties which Yoshida is a lefty hitin this is extremely important in
the MLB so I like to focus on that a ton when it comes to playing hitter props and
things like that so I really like to focus on splits when it comes to hitter props
hits plus runs plus RBI home run player props every anything that revolves a hitter
I like to focus on those splits it's extremely extremely important a free tool that
you guys have most likely heard of is statmuse it is somewhat paid now I believe
you get like five to 10 free searches a day then you have to pay for it it kind of
sucks but you can type in anything really and this can pull up some crazy stuff
like for example we can put in Kevin Durant game log with 34 plus minutes and
Bradley Beal type it in you can find his track record with 3 4 plus minutes and
Bradley Beal playing it then pulls up the game log for these players and their
minutes and just how they've been in that game their field goal percentage field
goal attempts things like that there's a lot of cool data points when it comes to
this tool here but if you are looking for player props that are in the playoffs
make sure you guys put including playoffs if you guys looking for NBA player props
uh for playoff games you got to make sure that you include that so that way to
include some of these playoff games there's also some sports specific tools that
are really important for researching specific sports like right now in the NBA a
tool that I really like to use is called the FanDuel NBA defense ver position it's
from fantasy pros you just look it up on Google and this will pull right up it
shows you how good a defense is against a specific position so like for example so
the Spurs they allow the most points per game to opposing point guards so far this
season and in the last seven games the magic are allowing the most points per game
in the last seven games to point guards at 3.94 in the MLB if you're looking for a
strikeout player prop you this toour right here is extremely important it's called
MLB umpire factor and stats this gets updated 1 to 3 hours before game time at the
Timeless recording we're pretty far away from MLB game time but they will pull up
like the game and the Umpire for that game and I like focusing on this because
umpires if you don't know anything about the MLB some of them are really bad some
of them call a lot more balls than they should or a lot of them call a lot more
strikes than they should so like right now you can see Bill Miller if he was the
Umpire for today's game for example looking for a strikeout over prop I like
focusing on the K boost here it's a 1. 124x k boost which mean there is a lot of
strikeouts when this umpire is being the Umpire for the game he's calling a lot
more strikes than most ump ERS do that's going to really benefit you for a
strikeout player prop on the over or if you take an under this is probably going to
hurt you a little bit there if it's at a 1.2 forx and you might want to end up
staying away from it hopefully you got some sort of value from this video I offer a
dub Club if you guys want to see all of my plays there's a free trial down in my
description for two days if you guys are interested in joining otherwise I post
free plays nearly every single day on this YouTube channel so subscribe leave a
like and have those poic turned on so you do not miss those videos you guys can get
some free plays from me and see if it's something that you guys want to tail I
really hope you got some sort of value from this video and that this helped you out
let me know if you have any questions down in my description I'll do my best to
answer you guys in the comments I'll see you guys in the next video thank you for
watching see you guys in the next one best of luck

this MLB strategy has made me well over $50,000 now I'm about to share it with you
so let's jump right into it first thing the type of play that it's going to be this
is going to be a player prop and it's going to focus on the pitcher all right and
within the pitcher we are going to be looking at the earned runs all right so
before we get into any deeper in here let's explain what earned runs are earned
runs are when a pitcher let's say example he pitches to a hitter The Hitter hits a
single that guy gets on base all right if if that guy comes around and scores
that's an earned run now let's say the batter throws a pitch to a hitter next thing
you know he hits it but player was supposed to be out but you know he overthrows
first base or something like that and it's an error that if he comes around and
scores is an unearned run so that doesn't count towards the prop that we're talking
about sometimes they'll be earned runs and unearned runs and you got to know the
difference between both cuz you'll think you lost a bet when you actually didn't
all right so important there to know exactly what earned runs are from a picture
now let's talk about the bet the actual bet itself you're going to be focusing on
the under 2.5 earned runs all right sometimes you'll see under 1.5 but we're not
focusing on that all right you're only looking for 2.5 that is going to be your
base number that you're looking at when you're looking for this bet now let's talk
about what we're looking for in this bet from the pitcher all right so what you're
looking for is you're looking for a pitcher that is going to be owned on all daily
fantasy site lineups all right what that means is FanDuel DraftKings when you can
go and do DFS which is daily fantasy sports you make a lineup that goes up against
other people's lineups now a pitcher that is highly owned across the whole entire
slate for those lineups is likely to be a pitcher that is going to come and is
going to pitch lights out all right reason why is because everybody wouldn't have
him in in their lineups if they didn't think or there weren't statistics behind it
that this pitcher was going to come out and he was going to pitch a gem so what
you're going to do is you're going to find that information out all right you're
going to find which pitcher is highly owned amongst all the daily fantasy sports
websites that have those players in their lineups all right once you do that you
are going to write that picture down and then we're going to dive into the next
step now once you have that picture written down the next thing you're going to do
is you're going to go and look at that picture's stats for the season all right now
if it's the beginning of the Season then you kind of have to go to the year prior
as long as they were on the same team all right you have to look at the year prior
but if you've went through at least I'd say for a pitcher anywhere between 10 to 15
games then you can look at the season that they are playing in so you're going to
look at their stats and what you're going to do is you're going to go through and
you're going to write down how many games did they go under 2.5 earned runs all
right so pretty much they couldn't have given up three or more all right you're
going to go through and you're going to write down how many games they've did that
next thing you're going to do is you're going to go to their overall games and see
how many games they they've pitched all right so let's say for example that 10 out
of the 15 games the pitcher that you're looking at has went under 2.5 earned runs
you're going to have that written down all right once you have that written down
you're going to find the percentage the exact percentage of what that would be so
for example 10 out of 15 is 66.7% all right so you'd have that written down once
you have that percentage written down now you have your probability written down
all right of that pitcher going under 2.5 earned runs next thing you're going to do
is you're going to go to your sports book and you're going to find exactly what the
odds are all right so let's say for example the under 2.5 earned runs for the
pitcher that you're looking at is minus 150 well minus 150 right off the bat is a
60% chance that that play is going to win based on what the sportsbooks odds are
that they are giving you now I have a PDF for these odds and if you guys want it
make sure you guys go down and click the link in the description so that way you
can get it and it makes it a whole lot easier so that way you don't have to go and
struggle try to find these percentages now again you're going to compare what the
percentages that the sports book gave you with the odds compared to the probability
is that you what you looked at all right so right now we're looking at a 66.7%
probability that that pitcher is going to go under 2.5 earned runs and the sports
book has it at let's like like I said minus 150 which is giving you a 60% you know
overall rate of what the sports book thinks the probability is going to be on that
play you have an edge there of almost 7% all right of probability compared to what
the sports books are ODS are that they are giving you so now that we found the True
Value percentage and we have an actual Edge in it that would be a play that we are
going to make now again guys if you want to fast forward through this and you just
want me to give you guys all the answers to everything so that way you don't have
to go through this and try to figure it out yourself all you got to do is go down
below and click the link in the description now that we got our pitcher we have our
percentages we have our Edge for this play we're going to go to the Sportsbook all
right we're going to go to our sports book and see what the line is for the 2.5 and
make sure you find a 2 5 line because here is one thing I do want to bring up
sometimes when you find these pitchers cuz most likely they're going to be ace
pitchers all right when you find these pictures sometimes it will say 1.5 so you
cannot bet that all right you cannot bet minus or under 1.5 you cannot do that all
right remember that this is very key and it's very important all right unless you
do the probability of under 1.5 but you will rarely ever find an edge for under 1.5
earned runs so you always want to look for under 2.5 earned runs now there is a
somewhat glitch for ESPN bet for people that have ESPN bet all right when all other
sports books have a pitcher under 1.5 ESPN bet will have that pitcher under 2.5 all
right it happens all the time yes the odds will be a little bit higher but they do
have it at that Sportsbook so if you have access to ESPN bet you can really exploit
the under 2.5 earned runs when everybody else is forced to pretty much pass on the
bet because they don't have access to it so make sure you guys have that Sports
Book and you have access to it because then you can actually have a very very high
advantage on certain plays that others can't so once again let's go through the
steps on how you're going to find this pitcher prop all right first off it's going
under 2.5 earned runs player prop for a pitcher you're going to go and look and
find the pitcher that is in majority of the lineups across the daily fantasy sports
all right which is FanDuel and DraftKings once you find that out what you're going
to do next is you're going to find the edge/ probability by going through and
writing down how many times that player has went under 2.5 earned runs in the games
that they have played in whether it be for the season that you're looking at or the
prior season if the ml season has just started next you're going to go to your
Sportsbook and you're going to find the odds for that player under 2.5 earned runs
you're going to take that and you're going to compare the probability percentage
compared to what the odds percentage is going to be once you have compared those
two if you have a higher probability than what the sports book is giving you then
you have your Edge then you have the green light to go ahead and bet that player
prop under 2.5 earned runs as always guys I'm Frank Wier Sports I'll see you guys
in the next video till then I'm out

all right YouTube how you doing welcome back to the channel today we're diving into
a really cool video a highly requested video ever since I teased it on one of my
daily videos but today we're diving into my personal same game parlay strategy that
I use each and every night in the NBA now when people hear parlay they're thinking
jackpot plus 1 million odds that's not what we're getting into in this this is more
of a high hit percentage than a one-time Mega payout type of a parlay that we're
building really the goal is to use these alternate lines move and massage the
numbers a little bit to get a three to five leg parlay that pays anywhere in the
ballpark of plus 120 plus 150 plus 175 sometimes more but that's really the meat
and potatoes now I know there's groups out there being like a fleg parlay for only
plus 120 why would you do that if it wins it wins so maybe it's not everyone's cup
of tea but it has been something that we've been able to do and turn profit using
now there are two lanes that I can go down on any given day the first one consists
of if we have a side or a total that we really like we're not going to actually get
into that one in today's video but all the other principles of the parlay building
are the same but just note that you know if you like a side or a total massaging
that number enough to get you to an even better number is sort of step one in this
process but what I think is honestly the more higher percent chance to hit sort of
strategy is looking at the Slate so today we have the November 28th slate in front
of us eight games we can go through and look at all of the live totals for these
games right two 37 1/2 in the Atlantic Cleveland game that's a very high total the
spread's also minus 42 uh so it's not really expected to be a blowout so that's
really the game that we're identifying there's a couple more on here that I don't
necessarily hate for example 236 in the Golden State in Sacramento game with a very
close one and a half point spread so it's really identifying a high total game and
a close game spread wise so we don't really expect any blowouts so once we have our
game picked again really what we're looking for is a game with a lot of points that
are expected to be scored so we can start looking at some of these numbers over on
the sports books and I will note it's really important to find a game that has a
high total not a low total because this is more of an over strategy we're not
looking for unders here because Sports books like DraftKings MGM FanDuel you can do
X points plus you can't always do a high number and take an alternate under okay so
we're really taking a lot of alternate overs here but that'll make sense in just a
bit so we have our game now we want to look at the players in that game and I'll
link all of these sites I'm using for each of these steps in the description make
sure to check that out guys but this is a site called RotoWire and it has up to the
minute NBA lineups for the day now we have Atlanta Cleveland in front of us it's
really important to note okay the starting lineup for Atlanta and the starting
lineup for Cleveland they also have injuries down here to make note of right but
that's going to be super super important because this is all going to be positional
based analysis which leads us right into what I am talking about here this is
another site called fantasy pros this you can break down defense vers position I
like to look at last 15 when available obviously we kind of just got past that
marker in the NBA this year so I'm very excited about that but this will break down
what teams allow the most or fewest of a stat category to a certain position and I
built this little template if you want to call it for myself you don't have to do
this you can just kind of make mental note or write it down yourself but what I
essentially do is go through and have the away teams defensive weaknesses here as
well as the home teams defensive weaknesses I throw in the positions just so I can
make note of this so how I got these numbers knowing that you know Cleveland allows
the sixth most points to opposing point guards it's back on that fantasy pros I go
to point guards okay where's Cleveland right here right well green number that
means they allow a lot of points then if we filter by points you could see how low
they are and at 1 2 3 4 5 six so they allow the sixth most points to the opposing
point guard position kind of templatized to make sure that it's easy for me as I do
it you don't have to do it you can just make mental note like I said or you can
write it down an old school way so I already filled this out obviously but if I
were to go through this really fast I'm pretty much filtering by team name so I can
identify where the Hawks are right and then I'm going boom boom boom boom looking
for those green numbers point guards assists shooting guards points small forwards
assists power forwards points and assists centers there's no green numbers right so
if we go back to our sheet that all lines up point guard shooting guard small
forward power forward hopefully all that is making sense so far if I were to
summarize it and put it pretty simply all we're doing is looking for defensive
weaknesses of the team and looking at the starting player for the opposing team and
now putting them into sort of the pool of players we might consider to throw into
our parlay and like I said I do like to note where they rank you could see Atlanta
was green for both assists and three-pointers made but they're actually the seventh
most they're not really comparable to the third most points or the third most
rebounds for Cleveland right so even if it's green I would still consider looking
at where they rank but anyways once we do have the rankings I kind of identif ify
what the highest rankings are meaning where is the most opportunity so we'll start
with Mitchell third most points that's a lot Hunter third most rebounds and third
most three-pointers made and then Moy here fourth and second I'm going to look at
Mitchell Hunter and Moy in some sort of the same game parlay so now we can start
building a parlay I'm on FanDuel right now but you can use any sports book you want
or you can compare a bunch of sports books to one another to make sure you have the
best odds out there but like I said Mitchell points was the first one we're looking
at right and it's really important at least in my opinion you could have a
different opinion other people might say something else but to take a very generous
line here so if you wanted to go with Mitchell 15 plus points if he's available you
could I only found 20 plus points for him today so we'll throw that in there it's
minus 700 right so we have a minus 700 single play on the board right now which
should tell us this has a very good chance of hitting but if we wanted to fact
check that oursel we can head over to outlier this is my favorite player prop
research tool I also have a link for this in the pinned comment as well if you guys
do want to sign up you can get 7even days free but you can obviously Google these
use stat Muse there are free free tools out there but this is super super
convenient so we're on the player prop screen I can filter to the Hawks game let's
just find um dun ofan Mitchell anywhere so we can click into him filter to points
and now let's go alternate line we did 20 plus right so over 19 and a half you
could see he's done this in all but one game this season head-to-head last time out
last year he spanked Atlanta 44 points so it's looking pretty good for us so we can
head back over to the parlay and say okay this one stays so if we head back over to
our template here what is next okay well I think that we look at Hunter here
because it looks like Cleveland really struggles against the uh small forward
position in rebounds and three-pointers made so back into our parlay here we'll
start with rebounds um Hunter we can see his normal line is four and a half so
maybe we try and massage that a little bit the lowest we can get is four plus so
let's go ahead and throw that one in there so now we're looking at a same game
parlay that's already minus 119 just for these two to hit but like I said let's do
our due diligence we'll click into DeAndre Hunter here we can go to his rebounds
and see how he's been doing so we took four plus that's over three and a half he's
hit it in four straight games he's hit in six of his last eight it looks like on
the season he's hit it in 69 nice percent of games this year so I think that this
one is a fair Shake as well but another tool that I like to use and I know I'm
throwing a lot at you guys but this is supposed to be a somewhat complex video all
right so we're looking at rebounds it's really important to go over and look at
their rebound chances this is on the NBA stats page here I'll link this as well in
the description or the pinned comment but we're looking at rebound chances meaning
how many chances does he actually have at rebounds per game that he doesn't
necessarily get but kind of come his way so let's go hunter right let's look for
him DeAndre Hunter is averaging 7.9 rebound chances per game I like that um it's
not the best but it's good enough usually you're looking for around 50% of that
number to be his line which it's right there right this is pretty much eight
rebound chances we want him to get at least four but what's good is that he grabs
over 50% of his rebound chances 57% so I don't hate that whatsoever it's only minus
165 so it may be a riskier leg in this parlay but again we got to trust the fact
that the Hawks are allowing the third most rebounds to the small forward positions
and we'll show you here as well small forward rebound Hawks or the Cavs excuse me
Cavs allowing the third most rebounds to the small forward position DeAndre Hunter
to the small forward
there's also some sort of just NBA knowledge that can go into this J Johnson the
normal starting power forward who does grab a decent amount of rebounds is out for
the Hawks meaning Hunter should get a couple more opportunities here as sadique Bay
who's filling in for Johnson isn't a huge rebounder but let's head back to our
spreadsheet now so we already have a decent parlay at minus 119 but we probably
want a couple more legs in there right so we can stick with Hunter for the moment
because if we look at him looks like Atlanta also allows a lot of Threes to the
small forward position so if we head over and go to player threes here and just
look at maybe you know Hunter gives us one three it's minus 1200 does it do much no
but it should be close to a lock and it brings that parlay to damn near even odds
right so that little move that he should hit this three and we'll check his stats
in a second brings it from 119 to 101 that isn't bad at all we can head back over
look at him here um alternate line is over5 he's done it in pretty much every
single game except for one this entire season now we're good with Mitchell we're
good with Hunter we do have stru for assists we have Mo I think Moy obviously being
the more dominant player on this team is probably what we're going to look at and
there's two stat categories that we can capitalize on meaning the Hawks really
don't cover this position well whatsoever and like I said their starting power
forward is out tonight so I like Moy in this spot so again we're looking at points
and um assists for Moy we'll start with points because this is probably going to
jump this up pretty well so Player points Mo's normal line is 15 and A2 I think we
go with 10 plus here it's- 800 but it probably should jump us into plus one 29
territory you'll love to see that this is probably already Good To Go just with
these four picks right like plus 129 four legs it's kind of what we're looking at
um in terms of our goal but you got to remember that all of these lines are knocked
down severely we took Donovan Mitchell's line from what 262 to 192 we took Hunter's
line down to three and A2 we took Mo's points line down Five Points so it's not
like we're putting normal legs of any game into one we're putting a lot of altered
lines into one now we did that on FanDuel I would encourage you guys to take those
same plays and try and get similar lines over on DraftKings MGM Caesar wherever you
have your sports books right cuz the odds may be even better but the same exact
principles apply and again these aren't always going to hit but they will head out
a higher clip than your mega million parlays that you're throwing together of all
the regular lines or even long shot lines and I'm happy to share it with you guys
cuz the proof is in the pudding we've been hitting on these all season long right
so hopefully I'm not jinxing myself here and showing it to the public public but
it's nothing groundbreaking here guys I did just want to share what I do there's no
secret sauce there's no secret tricks this is all stuff that you might already know
or you at least should be doing for your single plays anyways putting that much
research in using a bunch of different tools and again guys I'll link all of those
sites that I used in the pinned comment not in the description because that
description is pretty cluttered so the pinned comment will have all of the sites
that I used and outlier is a paid service 7 days free with the link in the pin
comment you can also get it for $19.99 month after that so it's really not that
backbreaking anyways but nonetheless I did want to shout that out that we do get 7
days free over and outlier hope you guys did enjoy let me know if you guys want to
see more videos like this obviously we do the daily NBA the weekly NFL and all
those types of videos for picks but if you want to see my strategy and me kind of
peeling back the curtain let me know in the comments catch you guys in the next one
right peace [Music] out [Music]

are you sick and tired of losing your bets on NBA player props you're stuck
thinking why the hell did I bet that in the first place or why did that guy play so
bad in this video I'm going to take you through the endtoend process of all the
things that you should take into consideration before you place a bet now I wish I
did this myself every single time but I'll be honest sometimes I just back the vibe
and the vibe's not always right so this is a great chance for me to not only reset
and refine my processes but to share it all with you so let's go behind the scenes
and let's get it let's go all right the first thing I want to share with you guys
is just this spreadsheet um this spreadsheet is free to download I've got a link to
that in the video description below and I call this my NBA player prop factors and
what I've done is I've listed all the things that you should be taking in
consideration you can see that I've got uh some commentary in there as to what
these different things mean from recent performance matchup strength sing um
similar players vers the opposition usage rate historical performance in-game
factors team face homeing team Pace homeing away yeah so you get it now you can
download this all for free on the template that's attached a lot of these are just
at the top so I've just moved them to the left side just so I can work in a
different pattern but content is very much the same and what you want to do is find
firstly find the player that you're interested in picking and then go through and
determine whether they meet the criteria for a lot of these and it's not like they
have to it doesn't have to be a green line of yes for all of them it's more so
making sure that you've considered everything before you place your bet because a
lot of times I see people do it and I do it myself we make bets before considering
what the matchup looks like or we make bets only based on historical performance or
we make bets not knowing what the schedule is like we'll make bets not knowing what
emotional factors the other team could be going through and a lot of the times
these things get us unstuck so what I'll be doing in this video is I'll be
referring to this spreadsheet but I'll also be sharing my screen so you know where
to get all the information for this all right so you've had a quick look at the
spreadsheet I'm sure you probably would have downloaded it by now but the first
place where you want to start is you want to find a tool like outlier there are
others out there I personally use outlier I think it presents the best information
that I need but you want to jump into outlier and firstly using this criteria is
find the first player that you want to start looking into so if you guys didn't
know I've got a 7-Day free trial for outline in the video description below so
please check that out it does go a long way in supporting the channel so I'll jump
into Outlaw right now and we'll start finding a few players to look through all
right we're right into outlier now I haven't played with any of the filters or
anything but what I'll do is I'll show you the types of things that I look for so
firstly when it comes to props there are certain props that I would prefer to bet
and those are assists points and rebounds I think that's the easiest way to start
you can obviously do this for all props but for this demonstration we'll just do it
in assist points and rebounds now what outlier does is if you haven't selected a
game it's automatically going to pre-populate by who which players have the highest
hit rate I've got mine set up for the last 10 games who has the best performance in
the last 10 but what you can do or what I typically do is I make a short list of
players based on finding as many green columns as possible last five last 10 last
20 head-to-head right because what that tells me is their recent form is great and
they've performed well against the opponent and I think that's a really good
starting point so one player that I want to look through just looking at this right
that's ticking all the boxes there's Kevin herder for over one a half assist but
the odds does throw me off so what I like to do is filter the odds by at least
minus 120 and then I'll work my way down from there so um because if I'm going to
take single bets I prefer to get a bit more value out of them and a little less
juice as a lot of y'all will say um but one person who catches my eye already right
is someone like Jonathan kaminga what we can see is his lines at 18 and a half he's
covered this in nine his last 10 games now I would have bet that because of this
but what we can also see is that his um head-to-head form against the Lakers isn't
great so he's only covered in one out of his last 10 games against LA and normally
that might be enough to discourage you but this is why you need to research things
a little bit further so what I'll do is I'll share my screen with the spreadsheet
and outlier together hope hopefully it's not too small for you guys and then I'll
show you how to fill it all out all right so I've zoomed in on the spreadsheet and
then we'll use outli to try to collect most this information and the stuff that you
can't get from outlier I'll show where else you can get that from so firstly this
has got definitely got my attention right so so Jonathan kaminga points 18 and a
half points is what we're looking at all right so now we're looking at recent
performance so what I would type in is that his cover this line in oh you don't
even have to type it in full really cover in nine of 10 games one thing I also like
to look at is minutes so he's playing 28.4 minutes per game in his last 10 and he's
averaging 14.7 attempts in terms of his shot percentage 53% and then when I check
his minutes what we can see is in his last few games he's seen a big lift to his
minutes and quite obviously I think it's because Steph Curry's not there so I'd say
that he minutes minutes on the rise and he shot attempts all right so that gives us
our bit of last 10 but whilst we're on here I like to look at the Home in away
Factor so we can go on outlier and just toggle just between his home um last 10
home games a game Sorry what am I talking about so homeing away so he's hit in five
out of his last six but he's only covered at 40% on the road this season so it's a
very recent form on the road where he's been doing quite well right now we also
want to look at matchup strength you can do that using outlier as well so in terms
of points so you can see here the Lakers are ranked 20th the higher that number the
better it is if you're looking at the over for um Jonathan Kinga and we can say
here the Lakers allow the 10th most points to power forwards on the season another
thing that you can look at is um defensive ratings so if we go to all right so if
you go on nba.com you can actually find every every NBA players defensive rating so
what I've done is I've filtered it by the Los Angeles Lakers who the Warriors are
going to be up against in this game so looking at the Lakers obviously the lower
the defensive rating um the better the defender they are the higher the worse right
so what we're looking for is I'd Pro typically be looking at LeBron James and ruy
hachimura most likely they're the ones who' most likely defend um Jonathan kinger
in this game so on the season we can see that ruy is 10th within the Lakers and
LeBron is 12th so they got a very similar defensive rating at 113 which is middle
of the pack for the Los Angeles Lakers if we fill to this by the last 10 games to
see their more recent defensive form we can see that ruy hachim mura second worst
120 defensive rating so the second worst for the Los Angeles Lakers followed by
Austin Reeves DLo chrisy LeBron James ninth within the team but his defensive
rating is at 16 So based off the season average both LeBron James and ruy hachimura
are much worse now than they were over the whole season in this last 10 games when
we're talking about the matchups we know that ruie has the second worst offensive
rating for the Lakers and I've take Taking note of ruy specifically because he's
most likely going to pick up the Jonathan kaminga matchup all right now we want to
look at historical performance for Jonathan kaminga and this is where it can get a
little bit dicey right so he's only cover this line in one of 10 games against the
Lakers so he's covered in one of 10 against the Lakers which isn't a massive shock
right Jonathan kaming is quite young you should see his form progress and get
better over time and over the last two months I'd say he's really started to break
out so um in the last few months he's only played the Lakers twice so if we're
looking at the numbers here you can see that the first eight games that he's played
against the Lakers he barely played any minutes right so I don't think it's a fair
assessment to say kaminga is covered in one of his last 10 against the Lakers which
means he's more likely to go under I think that's a stupid way to look at it but if
you look at his last two games he's played 43 minutes and then 24 minutes so
they're the ones that you really want to factor in so you have a two game sample
which I think if is a fair analysis so if we look at his activity in those games 16
and 12 attempts 43 and 24 minutes right so when we looked at his last recent
performance so looking at his last 10 we can see that his minutes are close to
about 30 but in his last four games he's playing over 30 minutes each and every
night now big factor that we need to consider is one what is the line in this game
so all right so the line in this game is three and a half so the Lakers are quite
favorites so that means that a blowout is unlikely which is good for us now if we
want to look at PACE outl has got you covered so on the right side it's got all the
team rankings and it lets you
know the pace factor so the reason why pace is important because if there's more
possessions there's more opportunities to pick up stats there are teams like
Orlando and the Chicago Bulls who do play quite slow Miami as well and when those
slower teams are on there it's slightly difficult for more players to hit their
props but also the lines could be adjusted to cater for that so what I can see on
outlier is that the Warriors play with the the 11th fastest past and the lake is
the fourth fastest which is good means going to be a lot of up and down action so a
little bit of pace in the gamees not too bad now another one to look at is the
schedule and I'm no expert in breaking down schedules and how it impacts player
props but you've got to really Factor it in so I'd look at the Golden State
Warriors schedule on Google you don't have to go to the NBA page you can just check
it here and really apply some common sense because it's got some dates so as I
record this it's the 16th of March so in the last week that'll take us back to the
9th so we can see is the Warriors have only played three games in the last seven
days they've had a two um a one-day break in between each three games so I don't
see fatigue being being a factor in this one for them but you can also do the same
thing for the Lakers to see what their schedule is like so if we do the same thing
and go back to the ninth we can see that the Lakers have only played three games in
the same period so they played on the ninth two days later they played on the 11th
then three days later they played on the 14th and then two days later is today's
game so no I don't think there's a schedule impact in this game now the other is to
look at playing style so one um website I like to use called Courtside pal so what
Courtside pal does is kind of G it gives you all the players stats but it gives you
a great um insight into their particular playing style their height and weight and
whether that makes it easier or harder in order for them to hit their U whatever
prop you're looking at so if we look at I'm on today's match up so that's not going
to give me Jonathan kaminga go to the homepage Jonathan kaminga all right so what
it does it's got given Jonathan kaminga a category for his height weight mass
shooting scoring playmaking and he rebounding and I'll show you how that works down
here so there are team ranks every team based on a certain archetype you could say
if we're we're talking about 2k and if you look at the point points cuz that's what
we're looking for is Jonathan kaminga points it really highlights these two columns
here the shooting and scoring so if we look at the Los Angeles Lakers they're here
what we can see um is firstly when it comes to shooting they're ranked eighth uh
the lower the number the better for us and 17th when it comes to scoring for
players like Jonathan kaminga but it also factors in play u his height and weight
and stuff like that so this is a really interesting way to see um more matchup data
I guess but if you watch basketball you'd know how they play right so Jonathan
kaminga loves to attack the basket is capable of hitting an open three and I
wouldn't mind his three-point props because I think there's a stat that came out
the Lakers last four losses LeBron James has been giving up three pointer is like
crazy because he's not stepping out so uh Jonathan kaminga also capable on the fast
break so we know he can SP for in the break we know he scores in the mid-range and
he can get to the rim another thing that's on the spreadsheet though is rebounds
plus assists now that's not applicable for this particular one but what you can do
for that is if we're talking about assists and when a lot of people talk about
potential assists this is what they're referring to so there are passing stats and
you could basically see every single players passes made received their actual
assists potential assists and such but for example sake if we're looking at
Jonathan kaminga uh we would filter down to the Golden State Warriors we would then
get his potential assists up and we'd see that his averaging 3.8 potential assists
this season and he's getting 2.1 actual assists and if we wanted to get a little
bit more recent with it you might say what is his last 10 games look like and over
his last 10 games you'd see Jonathan King is averaging assists and recording 2.4
assists per game so that's where the potential assist stuff comes from when you
hear people talking about it if we talk about Team Dynamics obviously Brun and AD
they're going decisions but I think the biggest one is Steph Curry is out so what
you want to do is look at the analysis for Jonathan Ming when Steph Curry's out of
the lineup to see how he performs you can do all that without liar actually Steph
Curry is a game time decision in this again this is a game for tomorrow this isn't
something close and we can see that in his last uh 10 games without Steph Curry I
think I clicked without no I think I might have clicked with Steph Curry my bad so
games without Steph Curry check this out he's covered in five consecutive games and
seven out of his last eight games right so that that's another positive factor
kaminga is covered so we've got that as well then you want to look at similar
players versus the opposition so one easy way to do this which is a freeway is you
jump onto stats muse.com then what you want to look at is let's say power forward
game logs Versa Lakers and what this is going to do is grab all the different power
forwards who have played the Lakers sorted by date the more recent ones are the
main ones you want to look at and then what you want to find is similar types of
players and how they ultimately performed so we've got here so the Minnesota
Timberwolves power forwards janen McDaniels Luca Gaza not notable scorers to be
honest so I wouldn't Factor too much into that we had Diana scored 34 points
against the Lakers Bobby Porter scored 14 points as well that was in the same game
so a little bit of a weakness there to the power forward position Sacramento Kings
they lack a true power forward so there's nothing to factor in there if we're
looking at OKC Chad hren I'd Factor him he's more of a center so I wouldn't worry
too much about that I think they have Jaylen Williams as their power forward but
he's more of a small forward right but he's also probably a smaller and a similar
version to Jonathan kaminga to be honest so I'll keep note of that and we'll check
his game log against the Lakers Cole kma um play the same position for sure he's
sced 20 points against the Lakers and the list goes on so we had um Jeremy Sohan
he's a power forward out and out so he scored 15 points Zack Collins more of a
center Off the Bench scored 14 and then kaminga the last game against the Lakers
scored 12 points took only 12 attempts in only 24 minutes but then we might want to
look at is even just small forwards because the threes and fours are very
interchange interchangeable these days and we saw Harrison Barnes had a strong game
against LA hit seven three pointers made Keegan Murray here's their actual power
forward for the Kings he had 19 points he shot five three-pointers on him who else
do we have here another one from Harrison Barnes Michael Porter Jr had 25 Denny
Aria had 15 Cory kisper 20 kawh Leonard 26 K had 22 Royce O'Neal had 20 so and then
Andrew Wiggins had 20 as well so that's dating back the last few weeks so what this
is basically telling me is that a lot of players in the similar position similar
molders as Jonathan kaminga have performed quite well against the Los Angeles
Lakers so and then you can take yeah I wish I was typing notes while that was
happening but you the way that you would do it is you'd say Barnes 23 points Murray
19 points Etc all right so you fill that in get more data put that all in and the
next one is on usage rate so again you go into nba.com they have all the stats that
you need usage stats all right and then what we would do then is filter down to the
Golden State Warriors once more so what we can see for this season Steph Curry
obviously has the highest usage rate at 30.5% but right behind him is Jonathan
kaminga 23.9% usage rate so that's on the season but if we filter that over the
last 10 games to see more recently how's it looking and we can see Curry's up to
32.5 but kaminga increased to 27.1% so he's got the second highest usage rate on
this Warriors team which is great he's going to have a lot lot of opportunities
he'll have the ball in his hands um which is optimistic some players have high
averages but their usage rate can be quite low um and if if you're back in a player
to score but their usage rate is quite low you're really depending on someone else
to pass in the wall whereas Jonathan kaminga is going to have plenty of
opportunities here so usage rate we've got 27.1% second highest for the Warriors
behind Curry right okay and then as we scroll down we've got mental and emotional
factors now a lot of the times you probably say not applicable there are certain
players who play against their old teams for example or friends Brothers playing on
the other team old coaches certain cities they might be playing in the city they
went to college in or the city that they're from so that could be an emotional
Factor but one thing I like to do is I just like to Google the search for the news
because sometimes what you'll find is if there is an emotional Factor there will be
an article written about it right so what we can see in the last two hours where
the news around Jonathan kaminga is more about his stock is increasing is he going
to stay with the Warriors and this is some of the stuff that I'd read through to
get better insights so what's this article call out it's calling out that once upon
a time kaminga wasn't happy with his role in The Warriors
but those days are gone his attitude is shifted 180° kaminga said that I would
love to just be one of the Warriors for life and just never change so what that
tells us he's not disgruntled he's happy he hasn't it's positive news really so
he's very happy where he currently is so there's no motivating factors but we know
that Jonathan kaming is happy right now right so at least you can remove that from
the equation sometimes you bet on someone and they're not happy I think that
happened to me this season I bet on Lori marinan but he was having a hissy fit at
that period of time and I didn't follow obviously everything on this spreadsheet so
it killed me so then at the end I've got a box here that has final thoughts and
it's really just an opportunity to summarize everything that we find so we know
that what are our final thoughts Jonathan kaminga his recent form is great he's got
opportunity his minutes are increasing right all that type of jazz so that's pretty
good in terms of the matchup it's a great matchup for him the Lakers allowed 10th
most points we know that Ru is going to be most likely his Defender and he has the
second worst defensive rating for the Los Angeles Lakers terms of similar players
we went through it Harrison Barnes keeg Murray um um Jay dub perhaps yanis so a lot
of other power forwards have had some success against Los Angeles Lakers and
doesn't surprise me because ruy not a great defender and neither is LeBron at his
age in terms of historical performance we know that he's covered in only one of his
last 10 games but the two game samples all we're really looking at and in those
games um he had 16 attempts playing when he played 43 minutes and he had 12
attempts when he played 24 based off what we've seen in his last 10 he probably
going to play 30 to 35 minutes I think he'll take about 15 shots in this game in
terms of ingame factors the Lakers are only three and a half Point favorite so the
blowouts unlikely which is good we know that the pace is going to be pretty quick
the Warriors at 11th and the Lakers at the fourth fastest pace so that's a positive
thing and then if we look at how he's performed on the road he's covered in five
out of his last six games on the road he's only hit at 40% on the road this season
but his more recent form is very promising we've also checked the schedule and we
know that the schu um hasn't been too difficult for NE the team three games in the
last seven days that's not too bad he's playing style he can get on the break mid-
range he can get to the rim and he can shoot the open three-pointer as well he's
going to get open three-pointers against the Lakers I imagine but he's going to be
able to take players like ruy even LeBron off the dribble whenever he wants and
then in terms of Team Dynamics we know that Steph well we don't know that Steph
Curry is out Steph Curry is a game time decision but when we look through his
numbers Jonathan kaminga has been able to this line with and without Steph Curry in
the lineup so I'm not overly concerned by that so what I would be doing the last
thing that I would really do before I really submit this bet is just make sure you
check all the other players not in this much depth but have a look to see right
does Klay Thompson have a great matchup Steph Curry does he traditionally destroy
the Lakers or whoever it may be I highly doubt it but Andrew Wiggins perhaps but
someone like Jonathan kaminga he's not their first option but he's probably their
second option but all it takes to someone like Klay Thompson and probably have a
good matchup great game or Andrew Wiggins and suddenly Jonathan kaminga could drop
lower down the totem pole in terms of priorities but look i' put this down as a
lean um it's a player that I like Steph Curry whether he plays or not that's going
to be a factor but also LeBron and AD are they going to be playing in this game so
I think just recapping the main tool honestly that you could use to get most of
this information is outlier outlier free sday trial the other is stats Muse that's
a free one free website courts my court Courtside power FR I'm stuttering all over
the place Courtside power but then there's obviously nba.com as well nba.com has
look I only showed you some of what it could do if you really wanted to get crazy
with it nba.com has starts Advanced starts there's a lot more information on there
but I just wanted to show you I guess more of what I look at before I do make my
final picks I know picks have been [ __ ] lately I'm not going to hide that but
it's more than just looking at how theyve gone recently you really need to take a
few other things into consideration before you make your final bets so look that's
a wrap on today's video I do hope that was informative for you I was kind of
winging it to be honest I didn't prepare it too much but I thought let me just show
you what I got what I do and then we'll figure it all out but if you want to see
more of my content just click over here the grind don't stop I've got some more
other videos coming let me know what you think drop your comments in and if you
have any other requests for videos you know where to put them let's go the cuz your
boys getting busy coming to your live from the west side of Sydney we've got the
free pics and the juice and the daily it's all free you don't even have to pay me

hey what's up YouTube Alex here and in this video really excited about it I'm kind
of going to break down my betting process right like how do I find my bets so this
year I'm up over $235,000 at the time of recording this video right before
Thanksgiving I'm recording it and you can see I've placed over 7500 bets this year
so I use a ton of different sports books I'm a big believer in this and I mean I'm
not even a big believer this is a fact if you're a sports better you want to use as
many books as possible all of these Sports books they set their own lines right the
sports betting Market is so fragmented so inefficient you have hundreds of books
that have launched in the US they may not all be legal in your state but regardless
you probably have 10 20 Sports books and fantasy books like prize picks available
in your state all these books are a little different so long story short I'm kind
of going to break down the different betting strategies I use and how I use each
tool on odds Jam to make money right there's some higher risk betting strategies
some lower risk betting strategies there's different types of sports books there's
traditional Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings there's also fantasy sites
like prize picks dabble Underdog fantasy which have fixed payouts so the betting
strategy changes a bit when you're using these fixed payout fantasy books like
prize picks but regardless in this video it's going to be a little bit longer of a
video so I apologize in advance I'm basically going to show you how I use each tool
on odds Jam to get these results because all of my bets again are found with data I
don't just wake up and bet random things with my gut right I follow very datadriven
strategies proven betting strategies that Sharps that Pro Sports betters Ed to make
money like Arbitrage like middle betting like positive EV so the purpose of this
video is really just to run through how I use ODS Jam to get these results so the
first thing I wanted to mention aside from using multiple Sports books is there's
no perfect number of bets to place per day right you want to place as many bets as
possible if your plays have an edge right you want to get as many bets in as
possible like I see a lot of people who ask me how many bets should I place per day
for mods Jam 5 10 15 like what's the right number and obviously it kind of depends
what time of the year are we in right now right before Thanksgiving you have NFL
college football college basketball NBA there's so many sports going on so there's
a lot of profitable betting opportunities it may be different in June when there's
only baseball going on and sometimes the board's a little bit more dry there's just
not as many Bets with an edge based on the time of year right sports betting
there's obviously you know good times to be really profitable sports betting times
like right now when every major sport basically is going on and then there's slower
times like June and July but you want to place as many bets as possible and I know
that sounds a little weird but it's completely true right if I'm the best poker
player in the world I don't just show up at the table play one hand and then leave
right if I have an edge if I'm the best poker player I want to play as many hands
as possible I know sometimes I'll get dealt crappy cards like 27 and I'll lose
money but if I'm the best poker player the smartest one I understand the strategy
best I know long term I'm going to make money right I know I have the edge and I am
going to win long term so it's kind of the same thing in sports betting you want to
place as many bets that are actually profitable that have an edge as possible so
you know a kind of related example is I started my career as a quantitative Trader
so basically when I was a Trader you know a lot of the trades were automated just
coming in and going but as a Quant Trader like your algorithms you're you're
trading hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands depends on the day hundreds of
thousands of Trades every single day right so it really is a volume game nobody's
going to win every bet it's about placing a bunch of Bets with an edge and then
letting the math work itself out if you have an advantage if you have an edge
you're going to make money long term so that's another plug for using a bet tracker
so this bet tracker I use right here where you can see my yearly profit is $236,000
is called picket so picket is a verified bet tracker you know what it does is you
sync your sports books it reads in your bets from every sports book from all the
sports books and shows you your profit and loss so and they give you a bunch of
analytics like profit by sport profit by League profit by team even like there's a
bunch of different analytics but obviously as a Sports better if you think you have
an edge it's really important to track your bets nobody's going to win every single
day most people aren't going to win every single day maybe if you're Arbitrage
betting which we'll get to but most people you're going to have winning days you're
going to have losing days and if you're using a bunch of sports books it's really
important to track your results so picket is a great bet tracker highly recommend
using it cuz like when I started sports betting I was very uncomfortable with the
idea of losing money so I bet very small amounts but but I tracked my results over
the course of months and months I saw I had a positive Roi so that's when I started
to increase my unit size seeing hey over the past four or five months I had a
positive Roi that gave me the confidence that I needed to increase my unit size um
as a sports better but without further Ado let's get into the first odds Jam
betting tool that I use all the time I love it it's called the odds Jam Arbitrage
tool so let's get into it so the first betting strategy stry that I love I think
every single Sports better should be doing it it's actually how I started gambling
how I made my first $40,000 profit sports betting it's called Arbitrage so
basically when I started to take my sports betting more seriously I was living in
Pennsylvania I had a full-time job as a Trader and sports betting legalized in the
US in 2018 so a bunch of sports book started to launch in Pennsylvania and
basically I spent a ton of time researching what are lower risk betting strategies
right what are proven ways right I didn't want any BS oh buy this guy's picks buy
this guy's picks I don't fall for that I wanted proven datadriven strategies that
actually make money and I wanted to understand them so the first strategy that I
fell in love with and it was basically the only way that I was gambling for the
first few months when I started taking my sports betting seriously it's called
Arbitrage so essentially AR arrage is when two sports books have such different
odds that you can Hedge for a profit right you're basically day trading the sports
books discrepancies in the sports betting Market when two books have such different
odds you can bet equal and opposite outcomes maybe the over on DraftKings the under
on B MGM and guarantee a risk-free profit so the reason that Arbitrage betting is
possible is every sports book sets their own own odds right all these Sports books
want to be unique there's hundreds of books that have launched in the United States
since sports betting legalized in 2018 FanDuel DraftKings B MGM fliff I mean
there's literally hundreds of books bet 365 points bet Resorts World bet b bet unib
bet you know there's so many books that have launched so basically you know all
these books are trying to set their own odds the market is super fragmented super
inefficient for that reason and when two books have such different odds you can
hedge and guarantee a risk-free profit that's Arbitrage betting and you'll see tons
of people talking about Arbitrage betting on social media obviously what appealed
to me about Arbitrage betting at first is I was just leaving College starting to
take my sports betting more seriously is it's risk-free profits right you can't
lose money assuming you're doing it right every single day you're going to make
money assuming again big assumption assuming you're doing it correctly all you're
doing is you're hedging two bets you're pinning Sports books against each other and
hedging for a risk-free profit so you'll see tons of people on social media giving
out Arbitrage bets breaking them down but I figured I'd take you through really
briefly how I find my Arbitrage bets why this tool is so amazing and essentially
how to Arbitrage bet like how do you do this so here you can see the odds Jam
Arbitrage tool and it's super easy to use I mean there are you know so many sports
books available in each state so here you can see I just have New York sports book
selected but long story short as an Arbitrage better right you're always placing
two betch two bets you're hedging to guarantee a risk-free profit so you're betting
the over on one book the under on another book so you're always placing two bets
you're hedging for a guaranteed profit because two sports books have vastly
different odds from one another so I always recommend use as many books as possible
like when I started Arbitrage betting in Pennsylvania there were dozens of books
available in Pennsylvania so I signed up for you know DraftKings B MGM Caesars B
Park sugar housee B Rivers the more books you have the more Arbitrage plays right
you never know which book is going to have the best Arbitrage plays on a given day
so I always recommend use as many books as possible but anyways you can see there's
some Arbitrage bets obviously depending on the time of day there will be more or
less in my opinion the best sport for Arbitrage betting is the NBA and the best
time to find Arbitrage bets is right before the game start there's a lot of lineup
news right whenever
there's a lineup news who's playing who's not playing who's on a minute
restriction you'll get a lot of line movement and because all these Sports books
set their own odds they all have to adjust lines so sometimes you can get these
hedging opportunities these Arbitrage plays where you can guarantee a rest free
profit but anyways long story short let's go through this Arbitrage bet between
Betfair and Circa you may not use either of these Sports books but regardless the
point is to kind of explain how we can bet his over and his under to guarantee a
profit so you can see Betfair has saquan to score at minus 145 cira which is a
sports book in Colorado Vegas I don't know a couple other states they're super
different they have him to score at minus 180 so these two bucks are super
different right it's crazy I mean how fragmented inefficient the sports betting
Market is this is like if you could buy a stock at 145 on Fidelity and on E Trade
it's Min it's $180 it's a huge price discrepancy they're 35 cents different so
basically because these two books are so out of sync we can hedge and guarantee a
profit bet the over on the BET Fair exchange the under on Circa and we're going to
make a risk-free profit so all you have to do is pull up this hedge calculator it's
also called an Arbitrage calculator and put in your stake on one book so for
example let's say on Circa I have a few thousand in my account and I'm like okay I
want to bet $500 on his under obviously if you bet it for 50 in this case if you
bet it for 50 you'll make $2 risk-free profit I mean it's free money for clicking a
few buttons sitting at home nothing better than that but let's say I put in 500
what this calculator is going to tell me is hey you want to hedge and you want to
bet on his over $754 59 and you'll make a risk-free profit of $241 so bet the under
on Circa for 500 bet the over on BET fair for $ 75459 what I usually recommend
doing is round your bet size right you don't have to follow the calculator exactly
I mean you don't want to sketch out these Sports books you're just hedging for a
risk-free profit but just round this to like $755 and you're going to make 2041
roughly risk-free there will be slight differences because you rounded the
calculator but we can kind of go through the math right and I could also put in a
stake here and then it's going to tell me the stake on this other sports book this
is a hedge calculator an Arbitrage calculator but let's just say we bet this right
so there's only two options with Arbitrage betting you're always going to win one
bet you're going to lose one bet if saquan scores I lose my bet on Circa on is
under I win my bet on BET fair so we're always going to win one bet lose one bet
but because we're hedged and these two bucks were so out of sync and we were hedged
in the proper proportions we're going to guarantee a risk-free profit that's
Arbitrage betting so let's say saquin scores right if he scores I'm losing the $500
I bet on is under at plus 155 so I'm down $500 on Circa but on BET fair I go up I
don't know if you can see the formula um but it says 755 time 100 over 145 right
I'm betting $755 at minus 145 odds minus 145 just means betting 145 to win 100 in
profit so if I bet 755 you can go through the math you know you can see the formula
in here I'm going to make 52069 so I lose on Circa I win on BET Fair my net profit
Prof is 2069 again slight differences from the 2041 because I rounded the
calculator and bet a little bit more on the BET Fair exchange and saquan scored so
if saquan scores I go up 2069 now let's say saquan doesn't score in this case I
rounded this to 755 so on BET fair I lose 755 bucks on Circa I go up 500 time 1.55
I'm betting $500 at plus 155 odds plus1 15 means betting 100 to win 155 in profit
so on Circa I'm going to profit $775 so I make $20 risk-free right so basically you
never know when the best Arbitrage bets are going to occur you can see odds Jam has
a tab for live betting sometimes live and game betting I mean these Sports books
can barely manage their odds pre-match so sometimes there's really good live
betting opportunities but again what I typically do is I just recommend place as
many Arbitrage bets as you can when I started Arbitrage betting I tried to make
$100 risk-free before I went to bed so you can see here you just kind of click the
refresh button and it will show you new plays here's one between rebet and FanDuel
long story short the more bucks you're using the better at the time of recording
this video basically every game had started so there's just not a ton of Arbitrage
bets but again pull up the calculator let's say on rebet which is a sports book
that's available basically everywhere again as an Arbitrage better ideally use as
many Bucks as possible more books more Arbitrage plays so let's say on rebet I'm
like okay I want to bet 250 calculator tells me hedge on FanDuel 93307 maybe round
that to 935 and I'll make $24 risk-free so you just head over to the sports books
try to place your bets as quickly as possible before the line moves these are
Market inefficiencies the best Arbitrage bets aren't going to last forever so what
I recommend doing is again you'll get more comfortable navigating these sport books
but try to head over to FanDuel head over to rebet get your bets ready then lock
them in at the same time you're fully hedged you'll make a risk-free profit of 2443
so just follow the calculator round your bet size and try to move as quickly as
possible um odds Jam has oneclick bet which I think you can see right here so go to
this bet on DraftKings which will take you directly to the sports book so it's a
lot quicker to lock in your Arbitrage bets but that's basically Arbitrage betting I
mean it's super simple I recommend check this page you know have it up in the
background that's what I do and I just refresh it let's say every 20 30 minutes as
the market moves around players get injured weather changes lineups are released
for the upcoming day there's always new Arbitrage bets occurring so I try you know
especially when I was starting with just Arbitrage betting I try to make $100 risk
free before I go to bed like this game is tonight this is the power of sport
betting you may be like oh you know this is kind of lame I have to bet a total of
$1,100 and I'm only making $24 risk-free but you're not looking at it the right way
right essentially the way you want to think about this is if you bet this you're
$24 richer by the end of the night right like this game is tonight Raptors vers
Cavs this game actually starts in 7 minutes so by the time the game ends in 3 hours
I'm 2443 richer oh win one of these bets or lose one of these bets but regardless
of what happens I'm going to make 24 bucks 43 I'm 2443 richer so lock in this
Arbitrage bet then maybe if you use any of these other sports books lock in another
one it's a volume game let's say every Arbitrage bet makes you $10 in profit try to
lock in 10 a night you're making $100 risk-free that's money that's building your
sports betting bankroll for other sharp profitable strategies so the next strategy
that I love and kind of once I started Arbitrage betting once I got comfortable
with that I started to look into middle betting I did a ton of research on middle
betting and this is another sharp betting strategy that you know Pros use it's a
datadriven proven strategy and it's all possible because all sports books set their
own lines and the market is super fragmented so I think the easiest way to explain
middle betting is just by going through an example so you can see right here on DJ
fsu's quarterback there was a 17 yard discrepancy in where his line was being set
FanDuel had his line at 192 half fliff which is you know a sports book that's legal
in basically every state they had his line at 209 half so these two books were
super out of sync again it's crazy it's like a stock being 19250 on Fidelity and
then 20 20950 or whatever on eade it's crazy financial markets like the stock
market are super liquid and efficient so you can't do stuff like this but in sports
betting the Market's super fragmented hundreds of bucks have launched in the US so
there's tons of middle betting opportunities available and you'll see a lot of
people talking about middle betting on social media but basically what you want to
do is buy low sell high so I bet the over 192 half on FanDuel the under 209 half on
fliff again one of these bets is always going to win I'm either going to win my
over or I'm going to win my under however there's a 17 yard Gap if DJ has 193 to
209 passing yards I'm going to win both bets I'm going to win my over 192 half on
FanDuel as well as my under 209 half on fliff and again a lot of people think about
sports betting are you taking this gu over or are you taking his under but how
sharp betters think how datadriven Sports betters think is it matters where's the
the line set so essentially what you do is you pay the juice and if dju has 193 to
209 passing yards if he falls between there you're going to win both bets which
actually happened so I won both bets dju had between 193 and 209 passing yards in
actually two of his first four games of the season so these midds hit more often
than you think right like dju he's not going to have five passing yards he's not
going to have a th000 passing yards so the distribution is kind of like a normal
distribution around where the player's line is set those yards are very impactful
so I found this play on the odds Jam middle betting tool which I'll show you in a
second but NBA college basketball NFL college football these are great sports for
Middle betting and you know you can you can find a lot of opportunity they're also
a fun Sweat Right I call middle bets the lowrisk lottery tickets of sports betting
right like you don't have a lot of risk you're always
going to win you're over um or you're under however it's a fun sweat because
you're hoping for dju to have a very narrow you know you're you're hoping for a
very narrow outcome to happen in which case you'll win both bets so odds Jam has a
tool for Middle betting just like the Arbitrage tool you know it's fully
customizable you can select all the sports books you use date range stuff like that
you can also add in minimum distance so for example I just showed you a middle bet
um where FanDuel had a GU line at 192 half fliff was at 209 half so that's a 17
yard Gap so if I put in 15 here I'd only see plays that were different by 15 or
more points just like the middle bet I saw if I had minimum distance of 20 I
wouldn't have seen the middle bet that I locked in but regardless you don't need to
add a minimum distance but I figured that was worth noting again the more books you
use the better you never know which sports books are going to be super out of sync
on a given day and have the best middle bets there's often times really good live
middles so you can select pre-match or live a lot of times during a game there will
be some huge discrepancies these books there's hundreds of books in the US they can
barely set their their lines pre-match so live betting can be extremely lucrative
um I recommend checking if you're trying to live bet Arbitrage or middle betting
check games at halftime timeout breaks um because if you're trying to Arbitrage bet
during the middle of a possession like these lines are flying around but anyways
let's kind of go through this so middle bets can be positive right a positive Roi
regardless of what happens a positive percent or a negative percent so for example
you can see right here saquan Barkley receiving yards this is ne. 46% so basically
what this means is if I place this middle bet so this is just a hedge calculator in
AR arrage calculator it's the same calculator as the Arbitrage tool but essentially
what this is telling me is hey if I want to bet this middle and I want to put $500
on FanDuel it tells me to hedge for $ 45892 on Caesars again I recommend rounding
your bet size but basically what this tells me is hey you're going to lose $4 37 if
your middle doesn't hit so you're paying the juice so basically if saquan has
exactly 14 receiving yards you're going to win both of these bets and make like
$1,000 profit if saquan has exactly 14 receiving yards if he doesn't have exactly
14 if he goes you know 13 or less or 15 or more he doesn't have exactly 15 and you
follow the calculator you're going to lose you know a few bucks you're going to
lose 437 on your total stake of you know $958 so let's go through this middle bet
though middle Bets with a positive percentage like this one you can't lose money um
I think these are Canadian sports Sports books so personally I don't use them but
regardless the point of this video is for it to be educational to kind of go
through examples so let's go through it right plus 120 minus 117 let's kind of let
me kind of show you how it's impossible to lose money and if jayen herts right
Falls between this Gap granted it's going to be very rare but if he has exactly 40
rushing yards you're going to win both bets so let's just say for the sake of
example again I kind of have my my little a little spreadsheet pulled up I like to
make these spreadsheets I mean when I was starting to bet on Sports I found stuff
like this obviously super helpful but let's go back here and let's say okay on this
BET right book I want to bet 500 bucks so this calculator tells me yo you know bet
59309 on Prine on his under at minus 117 and if your middle does not hit right so
if Herz does not have exactly 40 rushing yards you're going to make a profit of 691
so again as I said previously I recommend rounding the calculator so let's say we
round Prine to 595 so we're betting 595 on Herz under 40 and a half rushing yards
at minus 117 we're betting his over at plus 120 for 500 bucks right so let's kind
of go through the math and let's start with the best possible outcome right if Herz
has exactly 40 rushing yards I know it's rare but if Herz has exactly 40 rushing
yards we win both of our bets right so on BET right we're gonna win $600 500 is
what we're betting on Herz over 39 a. half rushing yards we're betting $500 at plus
120 odds so if this wins we're going to win 500 time 1.2 we're going to win $600
profit on BET right so long story short if Herz has exactly 40 rushing yards we're
going to win our over 39 half 600 profit on Pro Line we bet 595 at minus 117 odds
so it's just 595 * 100 over 117 we're going to win 508 profit so if Herz has
exactly 40 rushing yards that's our main sweat that's what we want to happen we
make 1,00 bucks now on the other hand if Herz has 39 or less so if Herz has 39 or
less we're going to lose our bet on him over 39 A2 right if he has 10 rushing yards
20 30 39 whatever we're going to lose our bet on the over we bet is over for $500
at plus 120 so we lose this bet but we win on Prine 50855 our net profits 855 if he
has 40 or more we win 600 on BET right we bet 500 at plus 120 so this should
actually be 40 41 or more because if he has 40 exactly we win both bets so if he
has 41 or more we lose our under 402 if he has 41 7 71 101 whatever we lose our 595
on Prine we win 600 right on BET right and we make a profit of $5 regardless of
what happens I'm making money obviously I want him to have exactly 40 rushing yards
and it's not much profit otherwise but that is a positive middle regardless of what
happens we're making money if the very rare thing happens the middle hits then we
win both bets so this is kind of again the power of middle betting it's a data
driven sharp proven strategy sometimes there's better middle bets than others you
just refresh the tool to see so like here's one on Fox right over 27 A2 under 28 A2
so in this case you'd pull up the calculator let's say you want to bet $500 on
FanDuel this tells you to bet 57767 on points bet maybe you want to bet 250 288 I
don't know right you can kind of put in the stake that fits your bank roll and if
dearen fox has exactly 28 points which again his line is centered around he's not
going to have 100 points he's not going to have two points so 272 versus 282 versus
29 and a half those are pretty big moves um so you can make money no matter what if
you follow the Hedge calculator and then again if fox has exactly 28 points you'll
win your over on FanDuel you'll win your under on points bet because these two
bucks are super out of sync and you know you'll win both bets so you'll make like
$500 profit which is awesome so that is you know middle betting and how I use the
odds Jam middle betting tool so next we can go through a few other tools on odds
Jam so this is called the Sportsbook screen and essentially what it does is it just
gives you a grid view of you know essentially whatever Market you want to look at
So currently I'm in the NBA you can see all the sports books kind of lets you hunt
around you know if you whatever Market you want to look at you want to look at
Player points player first half points it just gives you a full grid and view of
the market and then you can see line movements are kind of highlighted in either
green or red depending on if the sports book improved the odds or made it worse so
you know this is fully customizable you can add Sports books you can get rid of
them there's 200 plus Sports books on this odds Jam screen you know tons of markets
I mean these Sports books have so many markets there's so many different things you
can bet most bets suck um but obviously you can hunt through the market find some
Bets with an edge then there is the odds Jam I call them game pages so essentially
it just shows you you know where you're getting the best possible odds so for
example let's say the Miami Ohio game you can see the best price is on Caesars at
plus 122 the best odds on Bowling Green is minus 133 on the BET Fair exchange and
again you can look at any Market that you want to this is a college football game
it's not a super popular one you can see all the spreads the the alternate spreads
and which books are offering the best possible line um odds Jam also has a bet
tracker so you can use the BET tracker I mean to be honest I don't use it that much
but to add a bet to your bet tracker you can just click on an odd so if I want to
bet this on DraftKings let's say for $500 you know I can save this to my bet
tracker which is just going to show me my profit and loss you know kind of a bunch
of things like that the BET tracker also gives you analytics on your p&l what bets
you have open all sorts of stuff like that um you can also add bets to the odds Jam
bet tracker directly from you know any betting tool so for example this is the odds
Jam Arbitrage tool which we went through which you can make risk-free money from so
let's say you lock in this Arbitrage bet the calculator tells you hey you know
maybe bet $500 on BET online 347 on DraftKings you're going to make a risk-free
profit of 2059 you can add this Arbitrage play to to your bet tracker you know
let's say you round on DraftKings to 345 from 3476 we went through the importance
of rounding you can kind of adjust that here add it to your bet tracker and it will
show you your profit and loss um again like obviously knowing your profit and loss
how much money you're making losing all your bets open you know that's really
important so the odds Jam bet tracker you know kind of makes that easy to do um so
you can see all the sports books how much money you have in them your profit and
loss by by day what days you have bets open all sorts of analytics that would get
filled out but again this just isn't something I use that frequently because I use
some other bet trackers um but regardless it's it's pretty nice and a lot of people
like
to use it so the next tool we have is the odds Jam positive expected Value Plus
evev tool um positive expected value it may seem like a complicated word it's not
it just means positive Roi and we'll kind of go through the math behind it here in
a second but basically it's fully customizable you know you put in all the sports
books you use there are millions of odds updating every single second on odds Jam I
mean every sports book like FanDuel they have tens and tens of thousands of lines
up on every single sports book so all the plus EV tool does the positive expected
value tool is it scans the millions of odds across Sports books and then for
whatever books you use it points out the biggest discrepancies again you can add a
BET right to your bet tracker here so let's say I want to bet saquon's under at
minus 103 on Caesars you know you can kind of adjust your stake whatever whatever
but you know what I want to do is kind of explain why do I think this bet on
Caesars is profitable so you'll notice like yo minus 103 seems pretty good all
these other sports books Pinnacle you know has this line at minus 140 Pinnacle is
known to be a pretty sharp book FanDuel has this at minus 152 DraftKings minus 130
and we can get minus 103 on Caesars so the way you know what my previous boss told
me actually um when I was working as a Trader um because he liked to bet on Sports
a lot too is you want to treat sports betting like trading a stock right so
essentially the average line on saquon's under is minus 139 odds across hundreds of
sports books this is just Sports books in New York so I have my state selected
again every state has different books so you can see like odds Jam would
automatically show you New York books but obviously there's a bunch of other books
so essentially like okay I'm able to buy saquon's under at minus 103 at $103 when
his under is trading in the Market at minus 139 Min you know so it's like buying a
stock at 103 bucks when it's trading in the Market at 139 you're getting value
relative to the market and you have to remember Sports books are data points right
so what do I mean by that what I mean by that is everything is factored into these
books and their odds right so like for example DraftKings is a multi-billion dollar
company I think it's like a 20 billion dollar company they're experts in setting
lines you know they have teams of data scientists extremely good models and also
they have access to flow so what I mean by that is sports books aren't stupid right
they're constantly adjusting their odds like you can see right here a line movement
chart from FanDuel you know they've just been moving saquon's line towards the
under this is just a line movement chart you just click on an odd and it will pull
up the line movement chart so everything is baked into Sportsbook odds lineups
injuries weather you know all that sort of stuff Sports books are pricing into
their odds they're also pricing in sharp action right like sports books aren't
stupid Pinnacle they're constantly adjusting their odds if start better start
betting you know saquin under they'll move lines towards the under then if people
start betting is over they'll move ODS back towards the over it's kind of like the
price of a stock right if the if the company has a really good earnings report the
stock will go up right there's more demand than Supply the market is reflecting hey
this company had a really good earnings report they made a lot more money than
expected so the stock price goes up representing a higher company valuation so kind
of everything is priced into the market Market you know people love to look at
historical data oh what did saquan do last game but that's already priced into the
odds these books are putting out so again you may say well who cares right like who
cares if all these other sports books have saquin under around minus one30 why does
that mean this bet on Caesars is profitable so there's a few a few ways you can
kind of think about this the first thing is if I go to an Arbitrage calculator is
you'll see that you know Caesars is arbitrage with this sports book noig you can
get the under at minus 103 betting 103 to win 100 you can get saquin over at plus
118 so this play was also on the odds Jam Arbitrage tool so essentially let's say I
use both FanDuel and Caesars I can pull up an Arbitrage calculator FanDuel has his
over at plus 116 Caesars has his under atus 103 and let's say I want to bet $500 on
FanDuel on the over if the plus number is greater than the minus number that means
there's Arbitrage on equal and opposite outcomes so if I wanted to I could
Arbitrage bet this we already went through Arbitrage betting and make a risk-free
profit of $322 right so I could just Arbitrage bet this Caesars and FanDuel and
make a risk-free profit so whenever Arbitrage exists you know one of these two bets
has to be profitable right if I bet the over at plus 116 on FanDuel and I bet the
under at minus 103 on fliff or sorry on Caesar so I bet the over at plus 116 on
FanDuel and the under on Caesars at minus 103 I can make a risk-free profit so one
of these bets has to be profitable one sports book has to be messing up because I
could literally bet his over on FanDuel his under on Caesars and make a risk-free
profit so someone is screwing up here one of these bets has to have a positive Roi
in looking at the rest of the market it's really clear that hey Caesars is the book
offering value right they have this at minus 103 it's very clear kind of seeing the
hundreds of other books that are setting lines that the value is on the Caesar side
so again you can think of it like buying a stock buy the stock at 103 when it's
trading in the Market at minus 139 at $139 so we're getting a 36 C Discount to the
average line in the market you also know because this is a crossed Market this is
arbitrage you could bet the over on FanDuel the under on Caesars if you hedge in
the right proportions using a hedge calculator also known as an Arbitrage
calculator you know you'll make a risk-free profit so you know one of these two
bets has to be profitable and then it becomes really clear it's the Caesar side but
you also have to remember sportsbooks are market makers their odds reflect
information the same way a stock price signifies the valuation of the company it's
the same thing in sports betting odds mean something right like minus 150 what does
that mean minus 150 means a 1.5 5 to1 betting favorite 60% to win minus 200 means a
2 to1 betting favorite 2/3 to win according to the market so long story short how
you can kind of think about this is DraftKings has a 30 Cent spread in their Market
Sports books are market makers that's how they make money right like DraftKings is
essentially like a stock broker saying hey I'll buy at 100 and I'll sell at 130
books are market makers so dra DraftKings has a 30 C spread so essentially when
you're trying to figure out what is the fair value an odds Jam has a no vague odds
calculator I use this all the time it's the most important calculator in sports
betting is you'll see DraftKings Market is plus 100 minus 130 so essentially what
this calculator does a no viig calculator is it takes a sportsbooks market I just
put in DraftKings plus 100 minus 130 they have a 30 Cent spread 30 cents of juice
viig whatever and this calculator just removes The Vig so the way that a sports
book works is they have models right these books are taking bets adjusting their
odds you can see a line movement chart this one for fliff so these Sports books are
taking Wagers adjusting their odds based on where actions coming in if all the
sharp bers start betting saquons under they'll move odds towards the under so the
way a Sportsbook works is they have models that spit out hey this is fair value
right this is a market with no juice right plus 113 minus 113 this is the no vague
odds also known as the fair ODS so essentially DraftKings model is saying hey you
know saquon's over should be priced at plus 113 his under should be priced at minus
113 that's a market with no hold you can bet on the over at plus 113 100 to win 113
profit or you can play the under 113 to win 100 profit the UND is minus 113 so
basically according to DraftKings according to the model the market they're putting
out the fair line on the under the true odds the true price of saquin under two and
a half receptions is minus 103 or sorry minus 113 we're getting minus 103 better
odds on Caesars so we're getting better than fair value which is why this bet is
plus EV positive Roi you know positive expected value however you want to think
about it so DraftKings is saying hey through their odds they have a 15 sorry they
have a 30 C spread the fair odds on the under is minus 113 we're getting minus 103
that's better than fair value this bets profitable fanduel's Market they're more
aggressive on the under than DraftKings all these books have different customers
they're taking different Wagers they have slightly different models but regardless
you can see there's not that much discrepancy in the market fanduel's a little more
aggressive on the under than let's say Pinnacle this book right here which is known
to be a really sharp sports book minus 140 versus - 1552 so essentially FanDuel has
a 36 Cent spread in their Market plus 116 minus 152 they're like stock Brokers they
buy the stock at 116 they sell it at minus 152 you remove The Vig according to
FanDuel you remove the juice the fair odds or the no vague odds would be plus 130
minus 130 so FanDuel saying the over should be priced at plus 130 the under should
be priced at minus 130 that's what they believe the true line is before they add
the juice add the vague to their market and again if the under is fair at minus 130
and we're getting minus 103 this is a plus EV bet this is a profitable bet so odds
Jam the positive
expected value tool it reads in odds from 200 plus Sports books every bet is a
data point it removes The Vig from every Sports books mark maret right so for every
single sports book Odd sham is doing this in real time it's taking fanduel's Market
removing The Vig to calculate the true odds the fair odds the no vague odds in this
case from FanDuel minus 130 DraftKings it was minus33 books have slightly different
weightings so bed online and Pinnacle for example are known to be two really sharp
Sports books so fanduel's Market you know was plus plus 116 minus 152 pinnacle's
Market is+ 115 -40 you remove The Vig the fair odds would be minus 1225 so Pinnacle
maybe is weighted you know a little higher in the odds Jam positive EV algorithm
than hot streak which is a kind of new sports book it's not known to be super sharp
so odds Jam is taking in every books odds removing The Vig taking a weighted
average where sharper books get a higher waiting and long story short you know
showing you the best plays where you're getting odds that are above fair value and
again there's hundreds of sports books so this tool is going to read in bets from
every sports book there can be good bets on DraftKings fliff whatever again ideally
use as many books as possible because you never know which of these Sports books is
going to have you know the best value on a given day but that's kind of how the
odds Jam positive EV tool works all these bets has a have a positive Roi you know
you're not guaranteed to win every bet but over the course of the long run you'll
make money and again I recommend set your odds fromus 175 to plus 175 that's
roughly what I have so next I wanted to explain how to use odds Jam how I beat
fantasy bucks and there's four main fantasy books I use DFS fixed payout Pick on
websites prize picks Underdog fantasy dabble and better those are the main four
that I use and you can see um they're super profitable right so like you know you
can see on better I'm up almost $70,000 this year on Underdog fantasy I'm up like
15K long story short these books are super exploitable but they work a little
differently from traditional Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings so there's a
few main differences first of all on fantasy books like prize picks and Underdog
you can only play player props they don't have straight bets so for example if you
want to bet on the Knicks to win you can't do that you can't do that on prize pck
you can't take money lines point spreads totals nothing like that all they have are
player props the second thing that makes fantasy books interesting is they're
parlay only so what I mean by that is let's say I really like Josh Hart under 15 1
12 rebounds plus assists this is a play that's available on Underdog fantasy which
again is a fantasy book that I've used for you know about the past three years now
and I've had a lot of success on it but what you'll notice is if I just try to take
Josh Hart under 15 1 12 rebounds plus assists they tell me hey you need at least
two picks you need at least two picks to complete your entry so on these fantasy
books they're parlay only so you need to have at least two picks but what I wanted
to do is just kind of run through how I use odds Jam to maximize my profits on
websites like prize picks Underdog fantasy better and Dabble because again these
sites are super exploit but they work a little differently than traditional Sports
books like FanDuel and DraftKings so the first tool that I use to beat these
fantasy books is the odds Jam positive EV tool we've already gone through the
positive EV tool for traditional Sports books like fandel DraftKings whatever but
you can also use this tool to make money on Underdog fantasy and prize picks so
kind of important to know but I have an example play popped up which you can see
right here here is the way that Underdog fantasy works is they have fixed payouts
so what do I mean by that is right here you can see right Underdog fantasy is
giving me a 6X payout so I'm putting down 100 to win 600 on a three pick entry and
it doesn't matter if I take you know if I switch this from an over to an under I'm
still getting a 6X payout same thing here if I switch this from an over to an under
I'm still getting a 6X pay out so basically these fantasy sites if I you know
remove the hockey pick that I just had and I add in another pick you can see it
doesn't matter right I'm still getting a 6X payout so Underdog fantasy they give
you a 6X payout for any three pick entry so basically Underdog fantasy they're
giving us the same price on Josh Hart if I take Josh Harts over or is under I'm
getting the same payout a 6X payout for a repick entry so what odds Jam does right
this positive EV tool is it just compares the lines on Underdog prize picks all
these different sites to sports books so if you look at every sports book all these
Sports books it doesn't matter if you use FanDuel hot streak fliff it doesn't
matter if you use these books or not they're data points FanDuel is a $40 billion
company right they're experts in setting lines you want to put some weight into
their odds and you'll see all these Sports books have Josh Hart's under favored
FanDuel has his under 15 half Ras as a minus 132 favorite so all these books are
telling you through their betting Market through their odds that hey Josh Hart's a
lot more likely to go under as opposed to over so that would be the sharp pick that
you want to be on on Underdog fantasy now one thing I wanted to note is it's really
important on these fantasy sites like underdog dabble better and prize picks the
main three I use it's really important what type of slip you go with so Underdog
fantasy they give you better payouts than prize picks in general they give you a 6X
payout on three pick entries whereas if I head over to prize picks you'll see prize
pick is cheaper they only give me a 5x payout on three mans so it is kind of
important on these fantasy books what type of slip you go with and I've done other
YouTube tutorials kind of breaking down the optimal slip type on each platform
because again priz piix only gives you 5x and Underdog gives you 6X for a three man
another thing to note is this line you can see it's not available on prize picks
it's only available on Underdog fantasy which again just goes to the point of using
multiple platforms this is a really profitable bet on Underdog fantasy but it's not
available on prize picks so sometimes there's better value on underdog sometimes
there's better value on prize picks and that's kind of the benefit um of using
multiple Sports books so another tool that I like to use this tool it's called the
odds Jam fantasy Optimizer is really meant for people who can't use traditional
Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings fantasy books like prize picks are legal
in a bunch more States like California and Texas and California and Texas you don't
have FanDuel but you do have fantasy books like Underdog fantasy like prize picks
and like dabble so for example for prize picks this is the odds Jam fantasy
Optimizer I have prize pick selected it's recommending taking Cameron Dicker over
one and a half field goals if you look here all the sports books DraftKings all
these different sports books they all have Cameron Dicker over heavily favored
right like fliff has his line at minus 150 whatever um you can see another play is
odds Jam will also point out line discrepancies so Esports in my opinion is super
profitable on these fantasy books there's like 50 Esports games a day the Market's
super fragmented super inefficient so there's a lot of opportunity more games means
more profitable betting opportunities so you can see prize picks has Merit 2K this
random Esports player they have his line at 30 if you look at every other sports
book right like Underdog fantasy parlay play all these other books granted FanDuel
DraftKings a lot of these multi-billion dollar companies they don't do Esports
player props but all these other books have Merit 2k's line lower at 28 and a half
finding value that's the first step to being a profitable better you got to be
doing it so Merit 2K under 30 you know that's why odds jams recommending it it
seems like a great play a bet with an edge in every other fantasy book has Merit
2k's line lower at 28 a half so again every tool on odds Jam from you know the
Arbitrage betting tool the positive EV tool it's all just data why is odds JM
recommending Cameron Dicker over one and a half field goals well every sports book
has his over as a heavy favorite around like minus 140 odds his over is more likely
than is under what about this Merit 2K line why should we be taking the under 30
well every other book has his line at 282 so these fantasy books again I've kind of
gone through the math and other videos behind like what type of slip is optimal on
each platform because again prps and Underdog fantasy they don't have the same
lines they also don't have the same payouts however they do have the same payouts
sometimes so like for example on Underdog fantasy any two-p pick entry so you can
see if I remove one of the picks now I have a two- pick entry just two picks in
this Underdog giving me a 3X payout sometimes they have the same payout on prize
picks they only give they give you a 3X payout too so sometimes these fantasy books
like prize picks Underdog they have the same payout other times like three pick
entries they start to differ so it's really important to kind of know what type of
slip is optimal which again I've done a bunch of videos kind of breaking down the
math Behind These platforms and what type of slip is optimal so the final tool I
wanted to mention is the odds Jam promo converter so this tool is super super
valuable I mean if you look at Caesar sports book for example all these books are
in ruthless competition with one another for new
customers so a lot of these books like Caesars they have an $1,000 insured BET
right when you first sign up for Caesars their promo their offer is hey if you lose
your first play we'll give you back $1,000 right up to $1,000 if you only play 500
they'll give you back 500 if your play loses if your bet loses but what they're
telling you right here I mean I'm literally just on you know Caesar Sportsbook
homepage I've already done all these signup bonuses but if you're just signing up
for sports books all these books have lucrative deposit matches is on Caesars they
tell you hey if your first bet loses we'll give you your money back in bonus bets
so so the question is you know how do we maximize our profit right how do we take
this promo and turn it into money and essentially that's where odds jam comes in
with this promo converter so basically this is a risk-free insured play so what
does that mean what that means is if you lose you get your money back in bonus bets
so long story short because this is an insured play right we don't want to place
our first bet on Caesars if we're first signing up for Caesars you don't want to
play this $1,000 bet on a big favorite right like the whole value of the promo is
your play is insured if you lose you get your money back so essentially what that
means if I go back to this promo converter is you want to bet on an underdog you
want to bet on a long shot so you can see the top play currently on Caesars I have
Caesars selected on the promo is it tells me if you want to hedge and turn your bet
into risk-free profit what you can do and granted this is a bit of a long shot but
you can see the breakdown here is you want to bet on you know this hockey player
caught kdy to score a goal at plus 650 and then you want to hedge on FanDuel it
says $6,000 but obviously a $6,000 hedge bet on a guy to not score a goal may not
be possible so you you may need to find another play for example Memphis and
Connecticut maybe you can't bet you know the full amount 5950 on fanuel but what
this is going to tell you is hey you can take this Caesars promo and by hedging you
want to bet on a long shot with your risk-free bet the whole value of the promo is
if you lose you get your money back so you want to play a long shot on Caesars and
then go to a different sports book and play the big favorite in this case just
Barry katakami to not score goal at- 700 on FanDuel but again it's probably going
to be hard to get that much action down so even though this would be the most
lucrative you know would give you the highest amount of risk-free profit maybe
instead we take Memphis right a college basketball Underdog on Caesars this tells
me hey Hedon FanDuel bet on Yukon at minus 375 for 2960 and regardless of what
happens I'm going to convert my bonus bet my sign up promo on Caesars into $700 in
risk-free profit so this is a little bit complicated but you know maybe it takes
some time to go through some examples and really understand how it works but these
sign up bonuses are super lucrative and odd Jam you know has a promo converter that
really helps you with all the different types of promos from profit boost bonus
bets you know insured bets just like this one on Caesars where if you lose your
first bet you get your money back back in bonus funds it shows you how to take
these super lucrative signup bonuses and convert them into risk-free profit what is
the best line to take on Caesars and then what's the best book to hedge on in this
case it's FanDuel to guarantee a risk-free profit so I could take the Caesar signup
promo and turn it in to a risk-free profit of 700 bucks um again just following the
calculators but long story short I really hope you enjoyed this tutorial on odds
Jam the differ betting tools how to maximize profit and thank you so much for your
time

this betting strategy is so good bet 365

restricted me from betting with them put simply I was winning far too much so in
this
video I'm going to reveal the full strategy and share a 52-page account statement
with all
the bets that got me banned hopefully it'll put the naysayers concerns to bed
anyone can use
this method on any sport when the numbers are right because it's mathematically
sound I'll
show you with an example in just a second but before I dive into that the result
for the Bet365
account that I previously used now these results are from a subject access request
the template
for that is shared in the description down below so the details that I wanted from
Bet365 here is
what information did they have on me who'd you shared it with and how this led to
an account
restriction stopping me from placing Bets with them in the future one thing to bear
in mind
as we go through the numbers here is this is just one Bet365 betting account there
was lots
of different accounts open and multiple tabs of different bookmakers who are placed
in the same
bets effectively one after the other whilst doing this there's a statement on the
screen here shows
you total deposits withdrawals and amounts staked and turned over with the account
so if we deduct
the withdrawals from the deposits you'll soon see that with 667 pounds and 57 pence
in profit on
this particular account getting to that total profit was a little bit up and down
as you can
see on the individual results as we scroll through those here some bets were
winners some bets were
the losers typically Stakes were anywhere from five pounds up to around about a
hundred pounds
the vast majority of bets were struck on the greyhound racing so previous comments
that have
been on the channel where they say that that's just for mugs is not true sorry I
was just trying
to help you guys out but amongst their response there was only one thing that
Bet365 shared that
indicated that they had restricted the account they didn't actually share any other
information
other than they had made a note on the account to say exchanges sharp now from
memory that was
around about the time that the account started to experience stake restrictions for
those of you
who don't understand what that is that means that they placed a limit on the amount
and size of bets
that I can place with Bet365 which was gradually reduced further and further the
more that I
continued to place bets with this particular account when asking Bet365 in the chat
why this
was they would only tell me Traders decision which is kind of like code for saying
we don't want
your business anymore now there are no hidden motives or sponsorships in this video
for obvious
reasons so if you guys wouldn't want to help me bets were placed back in 2016 when
there was a
far higher tolerance for companies like Bet365 to accept winning bets unfortunately
you may
have seen on social media recently that it's far more common for people to be
banned and
restricted a lot sooner so this is why people are now using multiple accounts in
different
people's names just so they can get a bet on with these companies to advertise the
chance to
win some money the companies don't want to admit it with their Traders decisions
but I do know why
they restricted me in this instance and it's the strategy that I was using so I'll
now share that
with you on the screen here including an example that happened earlier on today the
way it works
is extremely simple because we're not trying to predict the future here and pick
the winning
team horse or Greyhound we're just looking for a mathematical situation where the
price of
something happening is larger than its true probability if we then continually bet
on that
larger price then it's true chance we will come out on top over the longer term
there's no
question about this whatsoever for example if we've got an even money bet where
there's 50
chance of something actually happening decimal loads should be 2.0 fraction loss
should be
evens or if you're in American odds plus 100 this means that for every hundred that
we bet we
should get 100 back 50 of the time however if we get a larger price that means
we'll get back
more than 100 leaving ourselves on top overall variance will do its thing and play
out over
a period of time but it's an undeniable fact that you will win over the longer term
and this
is why bookmakers like to ban people or restrict their betting Stakes because what
that does is
that limits the variance and doesn't allow it to play out meaning that you're only
allowed to lose
it also means that you could have picked a very good bet and lost money on that
something that a
lot of people struggle to get their head around that's why sometimes in some
instances people have
losing betting accounts or haven't won much money at all and they find themselves
getting State
restricted or banned by the Sportsbook it's not fair it shouldn't be allowed the
government
actually allows this to happen and helps the bookmakers do this in the UK but
that's just the
way things are so let's take a look at an example specifically from today where
this happened
and where you could have made a profit over the longer term if you were placed in
this bet
so it's Friday the 12th of May and I'm looking at the Greyhounds markets on Bet365
mid morning
here and the 1146 at Harlow stands out to me now I've put on the screen there
Betfair exchange on
the left for those of you that don't understand that we'll explain in a second and
bet 365 over
on the right I'm using the exchange here as my guide to the true price because it
is a large
Market it where many participants are involved and it's the closest thing we have
to gauging the
true price of a bet now the reason for this is because betting exchanges are
effectively the sum
total of The marketplace's View on pricing a bit so the wisdom of the crowd is a
play here now the
prices move fast on the Greyhounds which is what makes it ideal for this type of
situation to show
you a very clean example you can do it on other sports more on that in just a
second if you like
football but the closer to the start that you're finding bets like this the better
and the reason
for that is that is the point where the betting Market is where it's most well
formed and the
prices on show are likely to be as accurate as possible the Betfair starting price
is usually
the most accurate gauge to the true price of a bet now it doesn't mean that these
situations
are going to appear in every single Greyhounds race or horse race or even football
match but
they do appear regularly particularly on the Greyhounds so I want to draw your
attention to
the bottom Runner here the sixth dog where the price on Bet365 is currently four to
one which
is 5.0 in decimal odds compared to the betting exchange prices over on the left
where it's closer
to 4.0 so we know the marketplace values this bet at a price of 4.0 meaning there's
an implied
chance of it will happen 25 of the time but we can get paid at the bigger price of
five
to one on Bet365 and that is what is known as a positive expected value bet and
that is what I
was doing on my account to generate those profits by turning over bets consistently
however it's
not just the Greyhounds that you can do this on check out this video here in the
end screen where
I'll show you how it's done on the football too

yo what's going on everyone this is austin from call in our shot and in today's
betting 101 tips and tricks video we're talking about how to research and find good
winning bets now first if you're new to the channel knew the calling our shock
community i first want to say welcome thanks for joining us this is episode three
of our weekly installment of our betting tips and tricks video posted every single
wednesday episode one we talked about bankroll management unit sizing hedging
episode two we talked about how to make a winning parlay both of those videos are
linked down below or on our playlist on our channel home page so check those out if
you haven't already but let's get into today's topic how to research and find good
winning bets now i do need to say as a disclaimer if you follow this strategy use
these websites that i'm talking about that you can quit your day job or become a
full-time sports gambler that's rather unrealistic what i wanted to give you guys
was more of a kind of guideline of what i do to produce those daily betting tips
and tricks videos that you see every single day on the channel whether it's about
nba or mlb these are the websites i use this is the process i kind of use for those
player props you guys are killing it on and those spreads and over unders you name
it i get a ton of comments every single day about hey austin what types of websites
do you use or hey austin how can i become a better sports gambler and that's the
main purpose behind these this series of videos that we do every single week trying
to make myself a better sports gambler as well as you guys if you have any tips and
tricks that you think i missed or that you think i should cover in future videos
please leave them down in the comments below as well as if you're new to the
channel click that like and subscribe button it really really helps us grow this
channel out and to get to where we want to be we're trying to grow this channel
even more and more can't do it without your support let's get into today's video
now we started calling our shot we started this channel talking about nba player
props and it has constantly evolved and now more spreads over unders player props
mlb videos all of it but in today's video i'm gonna give you the websites i use and
the process i use when i'm looking for those player props not only for nba but for
nfl we're gonna just break down each website what it's good for and what i think
you guys should be using them for if you don't already i know a lot of our discord
members and if you haven't joined the discord over a thousand members in our
discord it is linked down below as well a lot of our discord members use the same
exact sites and like i said if i'm missing some sites let me know in the comments
below i'm sure people that are new to the channel or even frequent flyers they
haven't heard of every single website out there and there's always you can
constantly improve become a better sports gambler so leave them in the comments
below let's get into the first website first website of the day we're talking about
odd shark so as you see on the on the screen and keep in mind every single website
we talked about today will be linked down below in the description i don't get paid
to mention any of these these are just the websites i like to use but oddsshark
what i use it for is i look at the matchups and spreads for the upcoming sleep so
normally i'm waking up pretty early and a lot of sports books don't have the normal
like hey here's the over under for the jazz lakers game a lot of them really just
have the spreads and oftentimes i want to pick those over unders i want to give you
guys those picks but oftentimes some sports books don't have them and the ones i
use notably don't normally have them so odd shark as you can see at the top of the
screen every single game it normally puts the spread and the over under it kind of
shows you where the money's flowing where it's going but as you can see this is
what i use in the morning to see the different picks now one negative the odd shark
which it really isn't even that big of a negative is that it doesn't give you the
team's total points so normally you'll see in our videos especially nba i'm talking
about magic's team total under in points or phoenix suns over in points things like
that now oddsshark doesn't give you those exact numbers like 102 and a half points
or 105 and things like that but you can easily deduce those by just looking at the
math doing a simple math looking at the over under and the spread and then you can
easily find out what the overall team total should be about within a point or two
now i do want to note this isn't just for nba this can be used for mlb it can be
used for nfl you name it if you see in the top left you have a bunch of different
options for each different sport obviously nfl and college football aren't both
there because we're recording this mid-april of course those two seasons are not
those two sports are not in season right now so as the seasons get closer sports
get closer to starting those will show up in that tab you'll be able to see every
single sport that you want to see now oddsshark does do a cool thing they give you
recent facts to show like how a team has been doing over the past couple games
against the spread over underwise they also can give you some useless stats like
you see here with the phoenix suns that they're six and one against the spread in
their last seven games on a tuesday now well you can't do much with that i mean you
could hammer the phoenix suns against the spread and we actually have them in
today's video but you can use those things to kind of get a good gauge and then use
the other websites we talked about in a little bit to kind of give you a better
kind of understanding or pick that you're going to go with today now once i have
opening lines and facts now i've got a good idea what spreads or lines that i'm
looking for so i move on to teamrankings.com which you'll see on the screen this
site's extremely extremely useful for noticing trends now it's pretty easy to find
those different type of trends and statistics all you're going to do is go to the
nba and get to the trends tab then you'll see you got straight up you got against
the spread and you got over under you got a bunch of different options there and
then you've got on the right you've got a bunch of different options whether you
want to talk about as an away team as a home team with no rest as a home underdog
is a home favorite away underdog all of those you name it you can choose those and
see which teams are doing best so here for example we'll look at against the spread
ats and then we'll look at home underdog and you can see my pelicans up near the
top surprisingly you can see the sixers 4-0 against the spread as home underdogs
and maybe we'll take that into account later on in the nba season maybe we can take
that into account see if they'll continue to keep it going continue to stay
undefeated as home underdogs so this is a very useful site one of the ones i use
primarily for the spreads and over unders to see how teams are performing on the
road or on or really any other on no rest one day's a rest rest advantage all of
those different things you can really use to pick and choose your spots in the nba
for not only spreads but also over unders and even money line parlays now that's
really going to wrap up the spreads and over under portion of the video there is
one other site that i use but i use it for both player props and spreads so we'll
mention it in a little bit we're going to talk move on to player props and one of
the first ones i start with is betting pros for those people that hate sleeping and
i'll put betting pros up on the screen for those countries where the nba doesn't
tip off like at 7 00 pm eastern standard time maybe tips off in the morning for
them and they're always looking for the lines late at night vice versa this is a
good site to see when the lines come up as well as what site is offering what type
of prop and so it's very easy to navigate you go to the nba tab player props and
then you're just choosing which which player you want to see what props you want to
see for that specific player and so on it's really easy to see really easy to
navigate you get a majority of the lines and you can see them right as they're
posted but let's get into arguably the biggest part about player props and that's
the match up and there's two specific sites that i use for deducting the best
matchups or the worst matchups for players and that would be fantasy pros and
hashtag basketball let's talk about fantasy pros first now fantasy pros is useful
for a lot of things but the what i use it for most and as you can see there's a
bunch of different tabs for different sports but what i use it for most is to
deduct those best matchups of the night and to get there you go to dfs then you go
to nba and then you go to defense by position defense versus position all the way
at the bottom and it's pretty self-explanatory from there you can choose set in the
last seven games last 15 games or the whole season and normally i stick to the top
last 15 games just because there's a lot of trades that could happen or the trade
deadline just passed and it gives you a good overall sample size you never really
know there could be injuries that could have affected a team early on in the season
the last 15 games gives me a good reference of of kind of opinion or or stats
that's what you hear in a lot of my videos i talked about over the last 15 games
the blank team has given up the most points to the to the small forward position
and vice versa so we're gonna just pick one that we've actually talked about in
yesterday's daily video dear fox and we're gonna walk through this one show you how
i found this pic and how it ended
up caching and why i locked it in for our daily video and why i bet it is over and
so we're going to sort it we're going to sort it by point guards over the last 15
games and we're going to sort it from high to low and you see chilling up at the
top the new orleans pelicans given up almost 29 points per game which is over dier
and fox's over 26 and a half points now i'm like all right i like what i'm seeing
but now i gotta now i gotta do some more research you know you can always see a
team that gives up a lot of points but if that player is not making use of the
opportunity then it's gonna be useless and that's where we go to our next site stat
muse now stat muse is super easy to use you can basically you just can ask it
anything and it will probably populate and generate that since we're already
talking about deer and fox we're just going to type in deer and fox game log versus
the pelicans and you immediately see why it caught my eye you see his last four or
five games against the pelicans he's been absolutely killing it one of those games
was the game we picked is over last night he absolutely destroyed it and cashed us
over but this almost certified the pick you could see that the player not only has
taken advantage of a great great matchup he's also shooting a bunch and he's really
been exploiting that defense every single time he plays him and so that's basically
about it i lock it in i say you know what i love the matchup love the player love
the opportunity i'm all in but you can use that news for a bunch of different other
things you can even see how lebron james performs without anthony davis just typing
in lebron james game log without anthony davis since 2019 and that can be a very
useful tip for when you see a player go down with an injury see how his teammates
have varied how their stats change with that teammate out and vice versa all you're
doing is typing in nikolajokic game log without jamal murray since jim armor just
went down with an injury get well soon but like i said the possibilities are
endless you can even do this for teams and that's what we talked about earlier when
we talked about spreads and over unders you could look at game logs of teams and
see how they performed against each other let's say lakers versus clippers game log
you can see their point totals and stuff like that now i wouldn't use this to be a
judge like hey they've hit the under in three straight games maybe that's useful
but you do want to look at maybe maybe lebron james was out that game maybe why
leonard was out that game things like that can factor into those over unders and
spreads but you can at least get a good gauge to see how teams have played who's
won the most recent matchups and vice versa and last but not least very similar to
fantasy pros like we talked about earlier about those kind of seeing what matchups
are great for point guards or or centers or anything you name it another website
basketball you see it on the screen very very similar to access this one you want
to google defense versus position and then type in hashtag basketball you can see
exactly what i googled click that first link that will take you to the screen and
you'll immediately see that you can sort it by the last seven days the two weeks a
month the whole season as well as you can sort it by position which you see us kind
of messing around with on the screen sort of by position as well as over like the
highest who gives up the highest amount of points that position who gives up the
lowest and vice versa you see those great matchups in green bad matchups in red you
can kind of use that to kind of get your bases on those player props exactly how i
use fantasy pros to make those kind of decisions i'm looking at what teams give up
like a lot of points to the center that i'm going right to that center is it a good
matchup is it a good center that i like to bet on and then we can go from there now
i do want to reiterate there is no perfect way to do research and that's why i want
you guys to leave your websites and what you guys do down below in the comments now
while following these strategies might not make you or turn you into a professional
sports gambler i do hope you learn something from it use the website maybe you take
away something from it that would be a dream come true to me i just want to help
you guys become better sports bettors and have you guys help me become a better
sports gamblers we can all become better now there are there's no right way to
gamble but there are a lot of wrong ways but these are different ways you can
always always always improve as a sports gambler and that's why i want you guys to
take some of these tips maybe implement them into your research and strategies and
hopefully it helps you out in the long run so as a recap the main sites that i use
which will all be linked down below like i said talked about stat news talked about
odds shark talked about team rankings talk about fantasy pros talk about hashtag
basketball and betting pros six different websites you can use for a variety
different things not just nba but mlb nfl hockey soccer all of those things you can
use these websites for i just used one example for nba since our basis of the
channel is widely about nba so that's why we based it on that but again i want to
say i appreciate all of you for the support if you made it this far into the video
please click that like and subscribe button it really helps us grow this channel
out like i said over 3 000 subscribers now unreal we've been growing at a very very
fast pace and we couldn't do it without you guys clicking that like and subscribe
button getting us out to more and more eyes we really appreciate it i will see you
next week on our next betting 101 series video let me know what you guys want me to
talk about next week as basically all of these videos are normally given to me by
you guys and then i just kind of put my own twist on things so let me know what you
want to see this has been austin i will catch you guys again next week as well as
in our daily videos i'm not going anywhere you'll still see me then thank you guys
again this is austin i'm signing out peace

I feel like I may have cracked the code into pick an NBA player props so get hyped
around this one because I'm going to be dropping some knowledge if that sounds
interesting to you let's get into it it's up to the channel your boy's getting busy
coming to you live from the west side of Sydney we've got the free picks and the
juice and the daily it's all free you don't even have to pay me what's up everyone
and thank you for clicking on this video I also want to thank the 50 new
subscribers that we've had in the last 24 hours we're on the road for a thousand
Subs by the time the NBA playoffs starts so hopefully you like what you see in
yourself for more juicy content in my last video I shared with you all the model
that I've been working on to help me pick the best legs for NBA player props I
mentioned that the model takes into account factors like lineup changes recent form
performance against the opponent minutes played Home and Away performance their
rest between games and the expected pace of the upcoming game I decided to put my
model to the test and I picked five legs using this model unfortunately the results
weren't as successful as I'd hoped for and I finished two from three so a losing
day for us as you can see we didn't crush it out of the gate but I always knew that
adjustable model is going to take some time so I decided to accelerate the process
by assessing every starting player from all of the games played today I look into
their lines for points rebounds and assists enter all that data into my model and I
did this to try to under understand why some players do better than others rather
than just focusing on when the model makes mistakes and trying to figure out why so
pretty much reverse engineered this whole process to speed things up a little bit
so in summary I researched the line of a hundred players these were all the players
who were in the starting lineup of the 10 games that were just played and recorded
everything so I focused my attention on the players who had a significant over
performance and 25 or more on their props and here's what I found from the 100
players 30 of them outperformed one or more of their prop Lines by 25 or more the
main inputs I used were match up lineup changes recent form opponent form minutes
Home and Away rest impacts and pace and totals so I'm about to share the juicy
results with you but I want you to have a think about it to yourself which one of
these factors do you think would be the most important because my assumptions were
completely off so if you've ever seen my recent videos you would see the depth of
analysis that I'd put in for every single pick every pick I mentioned included how
the opposition team defends the position I was picking well one of the biggest
surprises for me was that the matchup was the least significant factor in deciding
whether the player was to outperform their lines from 30 players who overachieved
only 10 of them 33 of them had a favorable matchup today so this had always been
the starting point for my picks but it turns out it's not as important as I thought
I know I'm not the only one I've seen plenty of others operate this way and I get
it it makes sense logically for example if Utah gives up the most points in the
league to point guards then Dame lillid has a great chance at dropping 60 points if
he's hot like he did today but in reality over the last 15 games Utah allows the
fourth lease points to point guards per game across the league another key takeaway
was that the input for minutes meaning the players have seen an increase in their
minutes per game in their last five compared to their season average this was the
number one factor meaning 93 of these players had it in common who exceeded their
props by 25 or more so from the 30 players who did 28 of them met this criteria so
this could be from lineup changes injuries or even the coaches playing the more
minutes I guess the way I see it the books aren't sure where the line should be set
given this player has no consistent historical data for them to rely on and they
can't be that sharp with them lines lastly pace and totals were also extremely
important factors ninety percent of the players who made my list all happen to be
playing in a game which suited their prop so the games which had higher set lines
like the magic Paces that saw heaps of players overachieving points and assists
whilst lower scoring games like the Bucks and Nuggets saw more players
overachieving their rebounds so if you can successfully identify what the total
points outcome of the game is going to be it'll make picking your NBA props a lot
easier other factors such as recent form form against opponent whether they're home
and away rest between games they're all somewhat important but they all talented
about 50 to 60 percent range so the most important ones that I can take away from
this really assess those minutes and really look into whether the game's going to
be high scoring or not because those are going to be very impactful for your player
props and stop looking at the matchup so much the matchup it's not the most
important one unfortunately for me I hope these insights were as helpful for you as
it was for me I've spent all my normal research trying for MBA props into creating
this video for you guys and breaking through the data so I don't have any props to
share right now I will however leave the props in the comments section if I do find
some time so let me know in the comments section whether this was helpful for you
subscribe to the channel if you want to see how these picks perform moving forward
after I've implemented what I've learned today so I'll see you all in the next
video peace sub to the channel cause your boy's getting busy coming to you live
from the west side of Sydney we've got the free picks and the juice and the daily
it's all free you don't even have to pay me

in today's video we're going to be covering a profitable Sports training strategy

that requires zero knowledge of the sport and zero knowledge of the players
involved the only thing you'll need is a little bit of mathematics which I'll
explain in this video this type of betting is specifically for player props which
are bets that allow you to wager on a player's performance in a game and bet on
whether one of their stats will be higher or lower than a set line for example you
can bet on Tyrese Halliburton to score over or under 19.5 points or Jared Allen to
have over or under 10.5 rebounds even when the NBA season isn't on such as now
there's still other opportunities in other sports such as tennis or F1 racing how
price picks works is essentially it's a player props parlay or multi where you
combine multiple events to all happen and that's how you win the one bet so let's
take a look at Price picks and these other Fantasy games so first of all what
actually is a parley we're looking at Fan Jewel and I'll use to demonstrate what
Apollo is for those who don't know I do have another video that you can look at
over there but essentially what Apollo is combine multiple things together to
happen in the same bet so I could pick medfordev to win his match against
Christopher I could pick the whole garoon to win against akras and I can pick suno
to win against Djokovic now you see the odds for these are all quite low but if I
combine them in a three leg parlay the odds increase significantly and that's
because it's a lot harder to win and therefore the odds they give me are higher
because for me to win this bet let's see if I put 10 then I can win a lot more I
need Medvedev hogaroon and suno to all win their bets and you can pick whatever you
want for normal Partners but prize picks is a little bit different so how price
picks works is when you bet on something it generally gives you let's say I want to
bet on the new mediter's match I can bet on over 39 games or under 39 games so
basically they put the number 39 as basically how many games that match is expected
to last therefore if I bet on more or less it's roughly 50 50 chance and it's kind
of like betting on a coin toss so then if let's say if I bet on more for this case
I can combine it with other legs to form another kind of party so if I bet on
Carlos alcaraz's match I might choose to go with less than 37.5 games and I can
also add in sober link is matched to be let's say more than 22 games in total if it
lands on 22 that is canceled and it's just my other two legs so as we can see the
payouts these numbers here are changing with the default let's say of twenty
dollars if I add more legs so for example if I add in the MBA this person to score
more than 33.5 points then it increases how much I can win essentially how this
works is each of these you can think of it as kind of a 50 50 coin toss so
depending on heads or tails I'm like doing betting on heads tails and heads for
each of these outcomes and I can win from 20 win 45 so is this profitable or not so
let's do a simplest case where we only have two legs so let's remove sublanka and
just focus on the new Mander Dev and Carlos afterwards if I go for more or less or
more and more you see this number doesn't change so with the two Luke power play
what that means is if I bet 20 I will win sixty dollars this number's a bit
misleading as I'm not going to actually win 60 I'll get back sixty dollars I only
win forty dollars because twenty dollars of that is how much I initially put in by
about twenty dollars and get sixty dollars back then my profit is forty dollars so
that's what it means by entry 20 and 2 in 60. so I basically triple my money if the
new madvilla of this game is more than 39 games and it costs across this game is
more than 37.5 gigs so let's take a look at how I can calculate the expected value
of this bet the new Medvedev to win more Carlos Acres this match to also go over
37.5 games so the extracted value assuming these are 50 50 because as we can see if
we picked the less the odds don't change it's always going to be the same we can
pick whichever side it's a 50 50 coin flip so assuming these probabilities are 50
then to work out How likely we're going to win both well it's 50 times 50 so we
multiply these two together and that gives us 25 Now That's How likely we're going
to win the bet and in all other cases we're not going to win the bet so to lose the
bet we have a 1 minus 25 chance or 75 chance and if we do win the bet then we'll
get 60 back from our initial 20 which means we get a positive profit of forty
dollars if we don't win the bet then we just lose our initial twenty dollars and to
calculate the expected value it's this times that plus that times that so we can do
this by equals 25 percent times 40 plus 75 times negative 20 and that gives us
negative five dollars of expected value and as a percentage of 20 that's negative
25 which is pretty terrible so that's the most basic case for two legs if we were
to add more legs so for example we add this we add this we can see now there's a
flex option and a power play option so if I select different ones then there's
different results that are possible power play is what's original I just need to
win all four of these and that's the only way I win the bet but I can make a lot
more money I can make two hundred dollars so 180 profit if I pick the flex plane
that's kind of like insurance so if I win all four well I make less money so I only
make a hundred instead of winning 200 if I get four correct but now if I only win
three correct then I can still make 1.5 x my money so I'd get back 30 dollars um
whereas if I just picked the power play if I won three out of four then I would
still just lose my training holes that's the difference so this is a little less
risky and this is a bit riskier but is the expected value of these actually going
to be worth it um we can work that out as well so let's have a look at the expected
value calculations in Excel so as we saw from Price fix there's multiple different
payout structures for three legs four legs five legs six legs two legs three leg
four legs and there's the flex plate option and there's also the power play option
which which we just saw earlier so basically for the two leg option the odds are
plus 200 three leggings plus 400 four leg is Plus 900. for example if we select
three if we go to the power play option it's a plus 400 odds because you can make
with 100 we can make 400 profit that's why it's plus 400 this one's plus 900 if we
add one more we can see you can make 900 and for the five leg poly then we need to
do the flex plate only how can we work out the expected value for each of them well
let's go to the Excel and we can see that it gives us an implied probability which
is converting the odds to probability the American artistic probability using this
formula here and that means we need to win the two leg probably 33 of the time
three like 20 of the time and the four leg to break even 10 of the time we need to
win so how does that translate to the break-even win percentage that we need for
each of the legs so for example in this one how often do I need to win each of
these four on average to break even and the answer for that is to use this formula
so the implied probability percentage to the power of 1 over the number of legs so
for two legs that gives us we need to win 57.74 each leg needs to have a 57.74
chance of winning for us to break even for the three leggings 58.4 the four
leggettes 56.23 for the five link we don't have a number because we don't have the
power play option we only have the flex play option and this one is over here and
it's a little bit more harder to calculate but we can still do that so let's delete
that for now basically what happens let's say we bet one dollar if we get all five
correct we'll make a profit or pay off payoff is nine dollars we put one dollar in
get ten dollars back that's nine dollars profit do we get four correct then we get
two times our money so we get one dollar of profit if we get three correct we get
40 of our money back so we lose 60 cents and if we get zero one or two correct then
we just lose the one dollar so we can work out the break even percentage if we can
play around with the probability wins and these are using this cell as the input so
if we say it's 56 then we actually aren't breaking even we're getting a positive
expected value of 12 if this was 53 then we're losing eight percent so how can we
work this out uh mathematically the first thing we can use is so over so you can go
to data solver and we want to set the objective is this cell here so the value of 0
by changing this cell here and that gives us a solar solution of 54.25 we can make
this the same we can use this to calculate the other ones as well for the flex play
option for the four three and two legs thanks to mining the data YouTube channel
they've actually worked out using code and plotting everything so if you look at
this graph we can see that if the probability we win each leg is 50 we're going to
be losing EV quite a high like 20 to 30 percent of expected value but we start to
break even if we can hit 54.25 of the time for the five pig and six pick that's
when our EV is zero and any probability that's higher than that then our EV is
becomes positive so let's say at this point here I felt probably of winning each
leg is 56 then we're getting about nearly 18 in EV or 12 in EV for the five pig and
six leg options and we can also play around with this number so if we set this to
50 six percent we can see our expected value is 12 and that just goes to show you
the five pick and the six pick option are the best for us as it requires the lowest
break-even percentage for each leg to win that's the best way to optimize this
price big strategy similarly for Underdog fantasy
we can see for the two pick option the odds aren't that good and the four pick
option the Arts are that good because it requires a higher Break Even percentage
win of 57 and 56 whereas for the 3 Pick and five pick they're somewhat better as
the odds are better we can see we only need a 55 or 54.9 for charts of each leg
winning for us to break even and obviously in the heighten that then our expected
value will come positive so for Underdog it turns out the three Peak or the five
Peak bets are the best and it means we need to pick bets that have a 55 or higher
chance of winning for us to be profitable and have positive expected value in the
long run and for Price fix we would need 54.25 minimum so we will need to pick legs
where the chance of it winning is greater than 54.25 and combine them into a five
or six leg parlay for us to be profitable in the long run and have positive
expected value so now that we know the win percentage in need for each pick let's
see how we can find Opportunities where the chance of winning is greater than that
magical number of 54.25 to do this efficiently and practically we can use software
specifically Built For This purpose such as today's sponsor oddsjet oddsjam has the
latest odds data across many sports books across the United States and Canada and
scrapes these odds and combines them together to determine the fair probability of
each prize picks bet winning the tool we want to use specifically is their fantasy
Optimizer tool and let's take a look into it now so let's go to the oddsjam fantasy
Optimizer so we go to oddsjam and we can go to Fantasy and we can click on the
fantasy Optimizer tool so here the default is prize picks but they also have
opportunities for Underdog fantasy or all these other sports books up here like
Polo play Boom fantasy flip Etc but let's stick with price fix as the example we're
going to use today and you can filter for certain Sports as well so if you're not a
fan of the let's say Esports you can remove that and it will filter for the other
sports selected so like basketball baseball tennis and dmma and you can also filter
for stuff like leagues and stuff like that and the good thing about oddsjam is it
spits out a percentage chance to hit so How likely you are to win each bet in this
column here and how it works set out is it collects data or the odds from over 190
different sports books in this case you can see there's like found you or the
DraftKings odds Caesars but MGM and Underdog fantasy collected and it spits out
what the fair odds of things should be so it's not entirely accurate there's a bit
of give or take like it's obviously not going to be the fair rides exactly but it's
a good estimate um based on the odds from other sports hooks they factor that in so
here are all the good opportunities are in green um we want to pick the ones that
are highest chance to hit obviously to combine into our six leg poly for Price fix
or we can choose 5 leg as well and these are all still good opportunities if we
remove Esports we can see there's less opportunities that are good but there's
still four that are good and this one's also okay because we need 54.25 but as long
as most of these are over 54.25 then we could combine these five into eight poly
for the five leg flex and that would be a profitable bet so now it's the off season
so we can see there's baseball basketball but the NBA season isn't actually on and
you do get a lot more opportunities if it was the regular NBA season and the NFL
season and there'd be a lot more opportunities popping up even now there's a few
like four you can still make a pilot out of it same as Underdog fantasy there's
plenty of opportunities here yes granted most are in the Esports Calgary but you
can still make some profitable bets that way so essentially what we want to do is
to find which one has the highest odd Jam algo odds or the lowest odds actually and
combine those into a six leg or five leg parlay for our price fix Flex so to
actually go ahead and test the oddsgam algo odds and the accuracy of the percentage
chance to hit I Enlisted the help of the YouTube channel minding the data and using
the oddsjam API to check hundreds of odds and opportunities across all the
fantasies Sports books such as price fix Underdog fantasy and NHA this would
automatically pick up on any positively expected value pick that I Define as having
a 54.25 or greater chance of winning and it would get recorded into a database when
we filtered for opportunities that weren't 54.25 but rather 55 or higher then we
can see there were 404 bets that were recorded across prize picks and Underdog
fantasy and this time when we combine them into six legs and five legs here were
the results on average the predicted expected wind percentage was 56.26 and we won
54.84 versus slightly higher than before that was 54 0.5 and it's higher than our
break even though 54.25 and as we can see this time for the six legs we would have
made some 67 bets and we will return 122.4 units which gives us the net result of
82.69 profit which is very very high it is positive expected value as are all these
bets but as you can see there's a lot of variants sometimes you'll lose a little
bit or in this case you might make a lot more than you expected to make and we can
see for the five leg one we would bet 80 and return 80.4 so we make a slight profit
of 0.5 percent therefore you combine them into five links so assuming about 20 on
each one we would have made 67 times 20 times 82.67 which would be 1108 dollars in
profit so this is overall a profitable strategy but as we can see there is a lot of
variance and risk involved and I generally would recommend that you filter for a
percentage of heights higher than the expected 54.25 as is probably a slight error
in how the expected win percentage is calculated I'll probably filter for 55
percent or 55.5 something like that so that's how to make money with fantasy sports
books such as Underdog fantasy and price fix using mathematics if you'd like to try
odds Jam for yourself you can get an extended two-week free trial by one using the
link in the description below and entering the code Shane 2 to get two weeks free
trial of oddsjam if you enjoyed this video or learned something from it then make
sure to give it a big like down below and subscribe to this channel to not miss out
on my other sports betting and money making tips as always take care and I'll see
you guys in the next video

so you would send people to the airport they would find these local papers and you
would scour these papers and go through these articles and what's specifically
looking for hard hits injury how someone's doing exceptional plays someone who's
really coming up what would you be looking for well you're looking for injuries and
and and you're looking for game plans and uh you know as an example if a Coach says
look you know we're going to you know we're going to slow this thing down we're
going to start running a ball first thing the total is not going to be as much if
he starts slow his thing down he starts running the ball they're not going to get
as many plays and and there's probably pretty high possibility that the total is is
going to come down some on this game uh they talk about players they talk about
injuries you know especially the quarterback you know if you're talking about the
quarterback and you got a quarterback who's playing injured I mean how that's going
to affect his performance is is really important and they're always kind of plain
injured always playing injured is as you talked about in the book I wrote you know
there's 1,400 players in the NFL there's about 600 of them that have a value and we
have a value assigned each and every one of those individual players but as you as
you're as you've noted a lot of them almost every one of them are playing with some
type of an injury once the season begins okay then okay who's playing uh again we
listen and we follow Dr David Chow quite a bit and uh we think he does an excellent
job uh he's on serious on the NFL Network and he talks about the key players on a
weekly basis and uh and from an injury perspective how how he feels like that's
going to uh affect their performance there there are many more players that Dr Chow
doesn't cover that we cover that are playing injured and again we do a lot of
reading we got 140 beat Riders we cover I have a guy on my team he's a qualitative
guy he's not a computer guy right he probably knows more about the NFL as far as a
qualitative guys concerned I believe that any man alive okay what do you mean by
that a qualitative guy well okay the 1400 players he knows who they are okay he
knows uh he he knows their positions he knows what the value those players are as
far as we're concerned he knows how to adjust their value based upon their injury
and and after we get the medical information we'll figure out how we feel like
their their performan is going to be Ed against that particular opponent that week
and then we if if a if a player's worth a point and a half we we may downgrade him
he's only worth 3/ qu of point or he may be worth a point if a guy's out okay well
we got a backup we know the value of the guy's out what's a backup worth okay
backup could be worth zero he could be worth you know half a point and he's
replacing a guy that's a point and a half guy so we have to downgrade the pity and
buy a point that week and the other thing with this qualitative guy he watches
every NFL game he grades every play okay how many times have you watched the
football game and you'll see the score was it wasn't indicative of at all of what
the score should have been so let's say you know receiver's going down the field
and uh and he do have anybody within 20 yards of him and he gets thrown a perfect
pass he just drops it okay well he was unlucky he he should have had that pass on
the other hand let's say he's going down the field and uh we had a pass like that
in the playoffs when San Francisco was playing Detroit uh they threw a ball and it
it hadit a helmet Rec rochade and ended up in a in a in a real long completion and
a touchdown well that was lucky okay so when we look at the box score we look at
the yardage we take that off okay you know there's there's plays that happen uh in
the NFL when you look when you look at box scores as far as we're concerned they're
misleading okay when you look at the total amount of yards you everybody kind of
looks at the same thing you know you look at the time possession so you have to go
over each individual play and deduct all the lucky yeah and and then and then we
have player participation we know who played in every play so God you got to keep
up on all this so so to give you an example Joe Pittsburgh okay TJ wats out okay he
isn't playing well if you look at Pittsburgh's performers with him in the lineup
and him out of the lineup it's unbelievable that one guy could could uh had that
much effect on on a team so if you're looking at if you're looking at offensive
performance against Pittsburgh with TJ wat out you know you're not looking you know
you're not looking at what Pittsburgh's defense really is so you got to make an
adjustment when you look at that and you got to put that into your priority when I
wrote the book it took me six months to do this one section we wrote what we call
the master class okay and I wrote what we call betting strategy I wrote that for
the 999 t% of the people who bet Sports who and and we got a lot of new sports
betters today that have no chance I wrote that for them okay and I put the basics
in there I put basic I put basic betting strategy in there which that's probably is
important to them or more important than handicapping is I put I put all the charts
in there that tells them exactly what each half point is worth I put charts in
there that tells them exactly how a money line compares to a point spread fly on
the games two here's here's a money line equivalent if you can get a better deal
take it if you can't take the other okay I put stuff in there basic stuff because
none of that stuff is out there now guys don't have any idea if they're buying a
half a point what the fair price is to pay and all these all these points they have
a different value as an example if you're buying a game on or off of three say from
2 and 1/2 to three in the NFL or 3 and 1/2 to three that's worth 22 additional
sents it's not worth 23 but it's worth 22 if you can do it for 20 buy it 21 buy it
if it's a if you feel like it's going to be a low-scoring game and you can buy for
22 or you might whatever buy it but if it's 23 you're better off taking a two and a
half but people don't know that joil okay what's the value of two well the value of
two is much less than it is three the value of two is only worth six cents where 3
is worth 23 the different numbers have different values so put those charts in
there for the guy that I pointed out too I also put another section in there it's
uh we'll call it kind of the uh Advanced section and that section uh I I tried to
write in such a manner to where I felt like you know people could understand it and
that's that's the guy who or or or the lady who wants to become a serious
handicapper and and I and I explained in there exactly 100% Joe exactly how I do
everything okay this book was written at the end of the NFL season not this year
but last year it came out in August everything that I know about sports betting and
handicapping is in that book I would not have sold that information 10 years ago
for 20 million dollar and I never had any intention of ever writing this book and
putting that in there but I'm 77 it's my legacy I see all these new people out are
betting Sports and they're doing it in States now where it's legal uh I'm proud of
that I'm I'm glad that Sports has has come around to that but also I still have uh
there's a lot of things I'm apprehensive about also but anyway so I I wrote this
that was one of the reasons I wrote the book but in those two sections if you want
to be belly Walters and you want to be a handicapper and I don't care what sport it
is uh I use the NFL as a model but this model is the same model that for every
sport whether it be you're betting on golf or you're betting on the NASCAR you're
betting on soccer or base ball it's the same principle that's the way they all work
so I put that in there and then for people who are betting any type of sport but
especially the NFL uh or college football I but the NFL I put all those charts in
there to explain to people because right now I don't care what site you go up on
Joe a lot of these new places the reason they're making the money they're making is
if you were to PLL Sports betters out there today everyone thinks making a bet on a
on a sporting event you're laying 11 to 10 that's the premise that we've all been
taught that you're laying 11 to win 10 a lot of these bets today and matter of fact
almost all well not a lot of them all of them these we'll call them uh you know the
teasers the parlays uh those bets some of those bets a guy's land a $150 and he
doesn't even know it because there's no requirement to disclose the odd your land
so they're not going to tell you but like these in-game parlays and you're doing
these three and4 parlays and you're doing these teasers a lot of these places are
charging you a $150 to a dollar you got no chance of winning you got zero chance of
winning I couldn't win I wouldn't even think about playing them but the average
person who's playing them they don't know that so because right now there's there's
no requirement to disclose that to to the customer and uh we all want to about a
small amount of money want a large amount of money right Joe yeah okay well you got
a lot of people out there they're they're making these bets and they're laying a140
$150 and they don't know it when you look at these publicly traded companies you
know it's out right out there in the public you know when they report their
earnings they're you know they're they're doing very well but they all refer to
these parlays and teasers that's where they're making the majority of their money
they're they're not making a majority of their money on Street bets where people
are 11 to 10 they're making on these proposition bets well what I'm getting from
you is that to be be a successful Sports Gambler requires an insane amount of
dedication and research and understanding and that you you've got to be on it all
the time and most people are just not that sophisticated when it comes to these
things if they're betting using an app or something like that betting online
they're just doing it for fun they think they could win they got a feeling they
want to bet their team they want to make the game more exciting and so those people
are basically like very under they're very under research they're very they don't
have like the full grasp of understanding of the complexities of sports gambling CU
it's a lot more complex than I ever thought

how's it going guys welcome back to Daily Grind fantasy my name is Dustin and in
today's video we're going to be talking about how to find props with an edge
against apps like prize picks the easiest and most efficient way to find these
props is by using the Daily Grind fantasy Optimizer and middling tool this tool
literally takes all DFS apps all sports books their lines and odds and put them
into one place for you guys to easily navigate a few props that you're looking for
props that have heavy juice or a favorable outcome given by sportsbooks you're
looking for middling opportunities where one DFS app is too high the other DFS app
is too low and then you're also looking for inefficiencies or discrepancies within
the market via sportsbooks or DFS apps I pulled up the daily Grand fantasy
Optimizer and let's start with the discrepancy so as you can see here Kelsey Plum
we have Kelsey Plum's name the stat what you should be taking on prize picks and
then uh the sports book line right so we see that prize picks has this set to four
the sports book that being a Bovada currently has the near even line set the three
and a half so it seems that prize picks is coming in 0.5 too high and a little bit
too aggressive and comparing to the sports book therefore we would want to hit the
under a four assist on Kelsey Plum now that was a discrepancy play directly
compared to the Sportsbook Bovada but oftentimes we'll see that same play of Kelsey
none set to four on prize picks but we have five other books maybe being a pinnacle
FanDuel DraftKings uh bed MGM and Bovada all set to three and a half so the more
data points the better if you have five books telling you this should be set to
three and a half and you have one DFS app that being prize picks saying this should
be set to four it's clear who's off in this situation you want to take advantage of
prize picks because they are too hot so boom there's the first way to find an edge
against apps like prize picks before we get into the second one I wanted to mention
make sure you guys are playing five and six man flexes on prize picks never two men
or three man slips on prize picks five and six man slips are the easiest way to be
profitable over the long term when playing prize picks now let's switch over to the
middling tool where we'll compare DFS apps to DFS apps here's the Daily Grind
fantasy middling tool and there's two plays up here that I want to focus on but
first let me mention we are looking at prize picks and comparing it to these other
DFS apps so not taking into consideration necessarily the sports books but still
can find a huge Edge this way by comparing DFS app to DFS app there's two players
right here that I want to focus on Lance Lynn and Matt Manning we see Lance Lynn
let's start with that is set to five hits allowed on prize picks but you have three
other DFS apps being underdog flip and hot streak that have this set to five and a
half so if you have three books in agreeance against one that is different than
those other three books Who you gonna trust the three or the one so therefore this
is literally telling us price picks is off in its projection and comparing it to
the market and we want to take the over of five hits allowed on Lance Lynn same
exact thing with Matt Manning we can take both of these plays on prize picks over
five knowing and feeling really good about it that three other DFS apps have it set
to five and a half check this one out I just want to show you how insane the value
can be when comparing DFS apps this is a screenshot from the actual Optimizer but
it was also on the middling tool I just didn't have a screenshot of that this was
from week zero of college football Kevin kodiro was posted on prize picks at 264.5
passing yards but an underdog was posted at 222.5 a 42-yard discrepancy and down
here Caleb Williams was a 35-yard discrepancy that's an insane discrepancy where
you can take advantage of this and the best way to take advantage of these large
discrepancies is by middling them you'll take the over on one app the under on the
other app and the larger the discrepancy the higher percentage chance you have a
bet that can be profitable on both apps we often see these large discrepancies in
CS go and League of Legends sometimes League of Legends will have six kill
differences where you can take the over on one app the under on the other you have
a six kill leeway if it lands in the middle you're profitable on both sides we see
CS go where there's sometimes eight nine kill discrepancies that you can take
advantage of and so back to this example I took the over of 270 on prize picks for
Caleb Williams passyards and the under of 305.5 pass yards on Underdog and it did
exactly that he finished with 278 pass yards cashing the over of 270 on prize picks
and the under of 305.5 100 a profitable bet on both sites last but not least props
that have heavy juice or favorable outcomes for simpler terms what sportsbooks are
predicting is going to happen that you can play on prize picks at a better price
than what you can get on the sports books Let's Take a look at this jock Market
screenshot for an example and we'll talk through things so Luis Severino was set to
five hits aloud on jock Market but was five and a half on sportsbooks so not only
did we have that discrepancy that we were talking about but now he's also favored
to go over five and a half hits allowed on major sports books and we get it at a
better number of five now let's look at Boba shet he doesn't have a discrepancy as
his line for hits was set to 1.5 on both jock market and the sports book but the
sports books have heavy heavy juice on his under of 1.5 hits giving average odds
across these major sports books right here of average juice of -145 right you can
get this same play on jock Market in a three pick mortal lock slip which is a
three-man unin short slip on their app at -122 implied odds so a much better number
in comparison to what you can get it at on the sports book and those are kind of
mild examples oftentimes we can see -180 Juiced props on the sports books or even -
200 and be able to get them on prize picks and a five or six man Flex at -119
implied odds basically you're getting a play that sportsbooks are giving a heavy
very likely favorable outcome to on prize picks at a way better price and a better
bang for your buck these tips work across all DFS apps with set payouts as you can
see here here's all of the DFS apps on the optimizer if you guys don't have them
downloaded highly suggest downloading them being able to line shop getting the best
number across these DFS apps use code dgf when signing up and you'll get 100
deposit match up to 100 and last but not least if this is your first time coming
across daily Grand fantasy and the optimizer and tools they have to offer Linked In
the description will be a seven day free trial for you to give it a shot and
hopefully you guys enjoyed this video if you did go ahead drop a like on this video
subscribe if you're not subscribed already and we'll see you in the next one

in today's video I'll be talking about how to make money betting on basketball and
predominantly the NBA the NBA is one of the most profitable Sports when it comes to
positive EV and Arbitrage betting for Sharp bets primarily because of two reasons
number one is the number of games in a season and number two is the effect of one
particular player on the outcome of the entire game fundamentally Arbitrage and
positive EV bets exist because of Market inefficiencies AKA Sportsbook mistakes and
I've explained how you can make money off these in my other videos bookmakers will
generally offer markets on nearly everything which team is going to win the game
how many total points will there be but they also offer markets on more obscure
things such as how many points a particular player will score or things such as how
many points rebounds and assists a player will get in basketball one of the biggest
reasons for a sports book or DFS platform to make a mistake is because of a lineup
change basketball is the most interconnected Sport and this means a single player
has a much greater impact on every betting line offered for the game compared to
for example a sport like baseball let's take a look at a baseball example but you
can think of other sports as well in baseball let's use Aaron judge who is a
baseball star but whether he is in the lineup or not doesn't really impact other
players hits or RBI LS yes there will be an impact on the money line which is which
team will win as it means it's more likely that Aaron judge's team will win the
game if he's playing the lineup and there'll also be some act in the spread and
totals markets but the difference in the expected outcome if Aaron judge was in the
lineup compared to if there was his replacement is significantly less than if in
basketball whether LeBron James was in the lineup or whether it was his replacement
LeBron James affects every facet of the game in basketball him being injured or
sitting out for load management purposes moves a fair price for every single line
offered by Sports books what this means is if LeBron James is not in the lineup
then that means there are more shots for other players on his team to take which
naturally leads to more points more assists and more rebounds for other players to
get the style of play for their team in the game changes dramatically frankly
everything changes for us as profitable betters this is great news because it means
that the fair lines not just for the money line in which team will win will change
but also for the different markets such as other Player points and assists some
books will update their lines faster than others once this injury or load
management situation is announced and if you can act upon this information fast
enough there is positive EV or Arbitrage opportunities that come up because some
sports books will be too slow to update their fair prices because of that injury or
some sports books could have just overcorrected or undercorrected for that change
and therefore their prices are completely off this would therefore lead to
Arbitrage and positive Eevee opportunities as the markets move around and prices
change in response to this news in the LeBron James example let's say one sports
book such as drkings is slower than others to update their prices for other players
markets such as another player on Lebron james' team Anthony Davis to score over or
under X number of points in this case you would be able to get in a positive EV bet
by betting on Anthony Davis over the number of points because that price didn't
factor in that LeBron James is no longer playing and therefore Anthony Davis is
actually more likely to get those number of points and you can turn this into an
Arbitrage bet by hedging on a Sportsbook that was fast enough to update their odds
and therefore lock in a guaranteed profit sometimes you can also do middle bets
which is a very lowrisk betting system where you bet over on one side and under on
another side and for small loss or no loss at all you make a lot of money if it
lands exactly in the middle of your two numbers for example for close to even odds
you can get an NBA player over 14.5 points on one one sports book and the other
side of the bet is under 15.5 points on another sports book and this means you'll
win both bets if it lands on exactly 15 and you make a lot of money and if it
doesn't land on 15 well you win one bet and lose the other bet and you lose a small
amount of money or sometimes no money at all so in this case you win both bets if
it lands on exactly 15 points for that player and if it lands on anything else say
16 or like 14 then you win exactly one bet and lose the other bet and in that case
you don't make or lose any money at all so it's basically a free roll now it's very
difficult to find these Arbitrage and positive opportunities yourselves because
these lineup situations happen fast and sports books are slow but they aren't that
slow in updating their odds so if you are manually doing it it would be pretty
difficult and also there's so many games to look out for that makes it really
impossible but one tool that lets you find these bets relatively easily is today's
sponsor odds Jam which has realtime odds scraping software that scrapes the odds
across hundred hundreds of different markets across multiple Sports books and
therefore can easily identify these sports book mistakes very quickly as a result
of these changes in lineups and player injuries this saves you time from having to
look for everything yourself which is very timec consuming and realistically pretty
impossible and it also has the option to give you instant email updates when bets
that you are filtering for do exist this lets you get ahead of others who are also
looking for the same opportunities and being first to place these bets is a big
Advantage as these Arbitrage bets and positive e bets disappear very quickly once
bookies or Sports books get a lot of volume being placed on them and therefore they
will shift their prices back in line and as an added bonus you can get 25% off your
first month of odds Jam if you want to check them out by using the link in the
description below and using the code Shane at checkout in basketball injuries and
especially the concept of load management which is a systematic and often last
minute decision to bench star players to help reduce their workload over the course
of a long and grueling season are very common and therefore this creates very
drastic lineup and betting line changes than practically any other sport out there
and the second reason that the NBA is so profitable is there's 82 games across a
single season multipli that by 30 different teams comparing that with something
like the NFL which only has 17 games with 32 teams or the Premier League which has
38 games in season with only 20 teams we can clearly see that there's a lot more
games that exist in the NBA this naturally means there's more lines more markets
and therefore more Sportsbook mistakes for you to take advantage of and make money
in addition to the regular season there's also the playoffs which can go up to
seven games in the series versus the NFL for example which are just single
elimination games this means there's just so much more opportunity probably
multiple games across every day of the week and that means there's more opportunity
for daily compounding of your bankroll and growing your profits exponentially on
each Arbitrage or positive e bet you might only make 1 to 4% 1 to 4% per day
doesn't sound like a lot but compared to like the stock market which only gets 8%
per year on average this is now significant this is a level of return that is very
very difficult to get anywhere else other than from sports betting as there's no
real other Financial mechanism that allows you to have these compounding returns so
easily even let's say you make $5 a Time by doing Arbitrage bedding that doesn't
sound like a lot but given that each beted only takes a minute or two as you're
just bang bang pressing a couple of buttons If you place 10 of these bets a day
that's $50 a day or over $18,000 per year which is really pretty good for probably
less than hours of work each day making it an excellent side hustle so there you
have it that's the reason why betting on the NBA and basketball in general is just
so profitable and as you can see here pretty much all the opportunities you will
find are from the NBA when it comes to Arbitrage and positive EV betting as always
hope you guys enjoyed this video and learned something useful take care and I'll
see you guys in the next one
have you seen these ads from tipsters decided to follow their bets and then ended
up constantly on the losing side if that's the case today's video is an i opener
you cannot afford to miss we're about to expose the shocking truth behind following
betting tips and how it guarantees that you lose one thing you might have noticed
is that the majority of these betting tips offered by these tipsters is completely
free so are they just great people like Robin Hood doing it out of the kindness of
their hearts and trying to help you make money most likely not there's a saying
that says if something is free then you are the product being sold how these
tipsters make money is not by charging you for tips in fact they are known as
affiliate tipsters who are individuals or organizations that provide betting tips
to Their audience and at the same time earn money through their affiliation with
the bookmaker or sports book here's how they make money first affiliate tipsters
have plenty of affiliate links promoting various online bookmakers and betting
platforms through their unique tracking links when someone from the audience clicks
on this link and signs up to place bets the tipster earns a commission based on the
referred customers activity how the commission structure works is generally the
affiliate tipster will get a percentage cut of the bookmaker profit from that
customer this is generally about 30% of the total losses of one of their referrals
but sometimes it can even be higher than that so let's say you were referred by an
affiliate tipster through one of their links and you lost $1,000 to the bookmaker
then this means the bookmaker will pay the affiliate tipster who referred you $300
or 30% of your losses in fact I've actually been offered to become an affiliate tip
ster many many times by various bookmakers and online platforms and just to clarify
right now I don't have any affiliation with any bookmakers and I don't make any
money by redirecting my customers or audience to betting platforms and I don't ever
intend to do that so if you are a betting platform looking for affiliate tipsters
please don't email me you just get sent to spam so let's go over some affiliate
examples well firstly just by looking at my email we can see one exp is one that
frequently pops up up you can see here I got an email from them saying I get a 200%
bonus on a customer's first registration and I get 25% of the company's winnings on
anyone who signed up with your promo code and started using 1X bet so I'm supposed
to attract the big betters and there's so many of these people who apparently work
for 1X bet that have reached out to me and it's honestly all of this is just going
to spam 25% again this guy says you'll receive 25% of the loss of registrants from
your link each month and this kind of practice isn't limited to the small
bookmakers either there's all these big bookmakers for example bet 365 that has a
very well-known affiliate program and let's actually check it out so bet 365 is
affiliate program bet 365 Partners we can apply now if we want to and there's 90
million customers 25 different payout methods um earn 30% lifetime commission
across all products so that means if a customer spends $1,000 and loses that $1,000
well you get to keep a nice $300 of profit which which is quite a juicy payout and
that I guess is why all these affiliate tipsters are willing to pretend to be your
friend and then actually take money from you and you can track your Revenue
anywhere anytime pretty cool um very well build up program and we can see what
their Partners say as well um and we can see one of their Partners who's given them
great feedback is Andrew Bramley from odds Checker odds Checker is actually an
affiliate tipster or an affiliate for bet 365 they're not really a tipster they're
more like um showing you the best odds so you think that platform is there to help
punters but really they're just redirecting you to all these different bookmakers
and making money off of you so we can see that's the case from odd cheer here um
I've just picked a random um game and we can see they've sorted their odds um
showed all the odds from different sports books and let's click on the BET 3651 and
see where it takes us so I will click on that and we'll see here it says affiliate
equals 365 type bookie offer reset so I guess this is their code and we've just
clicked on the affiliate link so if I sign up to P 365 now and lose some money some
of that money is going to be going to odds Checker and you can see from an email I
got from W house VC it says is that as outlined in our previous examples wagering
Affiliates mainly earn their revenue by directing betters to bookmakers and primary
revenue models are Revenue sharing and cost per acquisition so percentage of their
revenue or a few hundred per customer and several strategies for wedging Affiliates
to channel traffic towards bookmakers such as s media content such as betting tips
or contrasting bookmaker odds which is what odds Checker does and we can see
they're even listed here an example of one well-known bookmaker comparison site is
odds Checker some affiliate programs offered by bookmakers also have tiered
structures which means the more people you refer the higher percentage payout you
get so maybe instead of 30% you would get 40% and this encourages tipsters to refer
more and more people to maximize their profits so now we know these tipster goals
is not to actually help you make money but rather to make you lose money so they
get more money let's see how they go about doing it without you suspecting anything
so to demonstrate this I'm going to be using one affiliate TI star um in this case
it is unfortunately Benny's football tips I don't want to pick on Benny although
that probably isn't actually his real name but we'll just use this as an example um
there's a lot of other ones that are very similar out there so firstly from this
image Boom the first thing we see is what they're tipping is not individual bets
they're tipping aers or others known as parlays or multis so where they combine
multiple things together into one bet and all of them need to win at the same same
time for it to possibly win so it's a sixfold bet the odds are very very high and
how it works is that it compounds your losses because it compounds how much the
difference you're paying in the odds the odds you're getting for each leg is
already worse than the fods and by compounding them and multiplying them together
it makes it significantly worse than what it was I have a whole video on why parlay
bedding is not a good idea and I'll link that up over here but essentially that is
why these beds are guaranteed to lose you a lot of money in the long run it's even
worse than just betting on individual bets you're going to be losing a lot more in
terms of percentage like instead of losing maybe 5% you might be losing 30 or 40%
and as we can see Benny here is just a random cartoon picture he's not willing to
share his own face like separates him from really being responsible if you lose a
lot of money you can't really blame him because well you don't know who to blame
and as we can see here we've seen a boom where they've won a bet Benny has won a
bet but we don't actually see him posting any of his losses which is quite
misleading I'm sure like not all of his bets are going to win that's statistically
near impossible and as you can see here is a nice affiliate link to sign up here
and place $10 on this and once you've signed up you do get some free money but then
Benny has now referred a new account and he's going to be making a lot more
Commission in the long run also I think it would be nice if Benny actually posted
some profit worm so how much has he made or lost over time and we can see from all
his bets how much has he made rather than just posting the winning bets it's quite
misleading there and one other thing these affiliate tipsters do is sometimes they
don't put the odds that you can actually achieve so sometimes they'll post odds
where they'll say they got odds of five but really once you log in you'll probably
only get odds of 4 or 4.5 if you're lucky as either the volume has moved or the
price is has Chang the moment that they've placed their bet and once you're on
you're too slow to get the original Odd price and the price has moved and if you're
not getting the best price then that margin already is very very small and you're
going to be probably losing in the long run and if they're using those odds to
reflect their profits then that is quite misleading because those are prices that
are not actually achievable it's also not very hard to fake a winning slip and I
can show you an example where I've just faked one over here um just using HTML and
CSS using inspect element on my PC there is no easy money and the only reliable way
to make money from sports betting is to spend a lot of time understanding the
mathematics and probability yourself which is the core to understanding how betting
works if you're completely new I'd recommend you start off by watching my betting
odds 101 video here and if you want more in-depth lessons where I share the
specific strategies that I've used and optimized over my years from betting and
also provide the online tools and calculators to help you make your own profitable
bets then I'd recommend my sports betting courses Link in the description below
which both have money back guarantees and what happens in these courses is across
multiple 1 hour or 2hour long video lessons I teach you the mathematical principles
that you can apply to specific Australia and New Zealand as well as US and Canada
bookmaker promotions and how you can exploit these optimally to make profit betting
yourselves and that is where I made the majority of my over $50,000 of sports
betting income if you enjoyed this
video it'll found it interesting then make sure to give it a big like down below
and subscribe to this channel to not miss out on my other sports betting tips and
tricks as always take care and I'll see you guys in the next one

in this video I'll share seven tips on how you can avoid being banned from sports
betting bookies because you're using profitable sports betting strategies like
positive Eevee and Arbitrage better now if you are winning Sports beta you'll
likely have seen restrictions being placed on your betting accounts whether that be
for promotions or stake limits or markets where you're banned from betting entirely
now the sports waiting strategies that I do teach mainly Arbitrage and positive EV
betting but with more details um in the description down below are only profitable
as long as we have accounts to bet with and we are actually able to take advantage
of these opportunities so if we lose access to our accounts or have restrictions
placed on them that will limit our future potential profits so that means we need
to utilize the following tips to be able to increase the lifespans of our betting
accounts so the first major tip is to understand how bookies bucket customers
bookies generally have four brackets of buckets where they classified customers
into the first group of customers is the customer group we want to make our
accounts seem like we want to be if that is if your accounts aren't restricted in
some way and you've just been betting for recreational purposes then you're
probably losing better and bookies put you in this bucket because they see you as a
profitable customer and they want to keep you on for as long as possible and
sometimes even offer you more promotions and rewards to keep betting with them the
next two stages is maybe we we want to keep an eye on this person because sometimes
they've identified sharp bets or they've been using view promotions constantly and
we want to make sure they're not just targeting promotions only so we'll keep an
eye on this set of customers the third group of customers is those who are seen to
be abusing promotion and placing sharp bets and this group of customers they'll
generally Place restrictions on such as no more promotions allowed and you're
basically only able to bet on the majority of markets where the bets are all
negative EV the final group of customers is the group of betters that book is
really really hate and will generally try to ban highly like close their accounts
or Pro prevent them from betting on markets such as markets where there's common
Arbitrage opportunities that they just do happen to find they will either choose to
restrict their betting whether they're not even allowed to bet a single Cent or
they might set restrictions on how much they can bet like maybe ten dollars where
at that point is not much point in betting you can move between different buckets
throughout your bidding journey and how book is determined where you end up going
or where you move to comes down to the internal trading team which is their group
of smart people who frequently analyze your account and see what kind of better you
are so the second tip follows on from the first tip which is to use mug betting mug
betting essentially just means betting like a stupid person that's what a mug by
definition is you want to try to look as stupid as possible to try to fall into
that first bucket or category which is the category where bookies are very happy to
let you on and bet as much as you want and they would generally not look too much
at your account and monitor you too much to do this either you can place bets like
line bets where it's generally a 50 50 coin toss and that market is very efficient
and there's not much value to be made by the punter so if you're betting at 1.9
odds on something that should be two odds you're basically donating money to the
bookmakers and they're just printing money off so the other thing this kind of
betting will put you in the nothing to worry about a category and they'll stop
monitoring you hopefully generally if whenever I open a betting account I like to
recommend people to start off with mug bets only as in the initial stage the
bookmakers will have any idea what kind of better you are so that first bit of
information they get is very very meaningful to them to classify you as soon as
possible so if you do a lot of mug bets early you're going to be put in the nothing
to worry about category and then later on when they stop monitoring you then you
can do more positive EV and Arbitrage bets that will actually make you a lot of
money so you're sacrificing a little bit of money in the start to make a lot more
later down the line and this is where the term upturn wheel comes from so an
upturned whale is someone who was a whale like a big fish that was donating a lot
of money but now they've turned smart either through learning from someone else or
figuring out things later on themselves at a different stage in their lives and
then they're making more money off the bookmakers later on while the bookmaker is
no longer worried about them the third tip is to generally avoid any suspicious
betting patterns that the regular recreational Ponto won't be using so this
includes things like not betting on obscure markets like for example the Russian
table tennis where like nobody is even really watching the sport and if you place a
bet on that you're probably going to be the only person to bet on it and whoever's
managing it can easily find your bet and see what kind of better you are if there's
not many other people betting on that market then your bed's not going to be
camouflaged away especially if it is a positive EV or Arbitrage back also you
should avoid betting on the Play markets as much as possible these include things
like the NBA number of points number of assist rebounds these aren't bet on very
commonly and if they do there's a lot of good Arbitrage and positive opportunities
where you can make a lot of money but if you do them too often then your account is
going to be flagged pretty quickly so try to stick with the mainstream sports like
the team's winning and how many total points that's generally a bit safer place to
post a bet if you don't want to get restricted also something kind of suspicious is
for example betting on a race like a horse race a day before the event actually
happens so this mostly applies for races before the lineups are even announced or
what the weather is known for that day you're going to be betting on it like maybe
24 hours beforehand this is something that most Planters don't do most punters are
better on the races about like a few minutes before the race they might see it on
the TV and then decide to stack five dollars on it or something like that they
generally do not too much analysis Before the Race so because there's again not
many people betting on it at that time your bet is going to stand out it might be
the only bet being placed the day before and the bookmaker can easily find you a
bit and make a judgment on what type of better you are the fourth tip to avoid
being restricted early by sports betting bookmakers is to size appropriately and
reasonably this means avoid using in pure Arbitrage amounts for example 35.57 this
clear stands out as someone who might be partaking in Arbitrage to the bookmaker as
you're trying to get a locked in conversion with another bet on another platform so
what you can do instead is like round this down or up to like 35 or 40 depending on
which one's better most recreational pundits just about like round amounts like
five dollars ten dollars twenty dollars and this is the kind of behavior we want to
try to emulate as much as possible they might also have promotions where they say
Max bet is a hundred dollars or max pay is 50 and you want to be avoiding betting
the entire fifty dollars as in that case it seems like you're just taking advantage
of the promotion as much as you can instead what you can do is reduce the stake
down take thirty dollars or forty dollars to take advantage of it but not to the
fullest extent the fifth tip that I have for you guys is to just understand that
different sports books or bookies bad people at different rates so some sports
books or bookmakers especially the smaller ones that aren't as reputable or don't
have as much money and can engage in some more Dodge practices you want to be
trying to avoid those as some of them ban you very quickly they might ban you after
placing one or two bets on a promotional offer even though you've done some mug
betting on their accounts as well and sometimes it's just not even worth opening an
account with them in the first place even one of the bigger bookmakers out there
such as Ladbrokes will ban you very quickly as well generally within a week whereas
like other bookmakers such as tub will happily let you on for over a year even if
you just bet on promotions with them after you've done some mug betting at the
initial stage the sixth tip I have is to avoid withdrawals as much as you can so
I'm not saying don't withdraw at all until your account's been banned that's not a
good thing in most cases but what happens when you withdraw is it will likely be
triggering a review of your account by the bookmaker they will have a look at your
account and see what type of better you are because they know this person's gonna
withdraw that means there's probably one some money you said we want to have a look
at their account and this is something we want to avoid we don't want them to look
at our accounts if we're a winning beta using positive EV and Arbitrage so unless
you really need that money you try to avoid withdrawing the other reason to not
listen to this advice is and actually go ahead and withdraw is if the sports book
or bookmaker you're using is not that reputable for example some of the smaller
bookies in Australia this is because they can do some dodgy things like freezer
account for suspicious activity or they can ask for very personal items such as
like bank statements under the excuse that they're trying
to see that you can actually afford to be placed on the bets that you're placing
but they only really do this to winning betters so it's just a strategy for them to
try to avoid letting you withdraw and keep the money in your accounts so in those
cases generally once your account balance reaches 500 I would actually recommend
withdrawing but for the very reputable bookies out there you don't really need to
withdraw unless you've been restricted in which case you can just withdraw after
your restrictions have been placed on your account they generally won't stop you
from withdrawing final tip that I have for you guys is to understand that as long
as you're winning better the sports books will ban you from using their promotions
eventually and sometimes even stake restrictions on your account if you are using
pure Arbitrage bets and there really is no way around this you can't camouflage
your account forever you can only make it last long this is because bookmakers how
they make money is through their customers and if they're losing money to a
customer that's not in their business model they need to make money to pay for
their staff website and advertisements etc etc so they obviously can't have you
just taking money out from their business forever so ultimately you need to
understand that your objective is not to prolong the lifespan of your account the
objective is to increase as much as possible how much profit you're going to win
from the bookmaker before you eventually get banned obviously if you have a longer
time span that should increase your profits but if you're making smaller and
smaller profits each month then that sometimes might not be worth it it might be
better off to just hit more promotions or bet larger sizes when the positive EV
opportunities do occur and even then though if you get banned quicker you might
have made more money from that account than you otherwise would have if you've done
like maybe 90 of mug bets and lost some money there to try to camouflage your
account too much just go in with the mindset that you will be banned eventually and
these are some things you can do to try to prolong it and make it last a bit longer
but it's not the thing you should be focusing on you should still be focusing on
maximizing your profits and getting as much out of your betting accounts as you can
now if you want to actually learn the strategies I use to make over fifty thousand
dollars before I eventually got restricted from most sports betting accounts then
you can have a check at my sports wedding courses linked over here or in the
description below these share both the theory and also practice and real life
examples of bets that I've placed and examples of similar beds that you can place
and I teach you how to place these bets as well yourselves by giving you practice
examples and questions and answering your questions in the Discord so you'll be
fully ready and become profitable Sports betters yourselves I also offer money back
guarantees where you get your money back for the amount you paid for the course if
you're not able to make it back as long as you have access to the sports betting
accounts listed in that country if you enjoyed this video then make sure to give it
a big like down below and subscribe to this channel to not miss out on my other
betting tips as always take care and I'll see you guys in the next video

the biggest myth in sports betting is that you can win if you have the magical
ability to pick out winners however no one whether that be tipsters Sports Experts
or even bookmakers themselves know who's going to win how I managed to turn a 200
deposit into well over sixteen thousand dollars through over a hundred thousand
dollars worth of bets all comes down to a good understanding of one thing and that
is betting odds so in this video in six minutes I'm going to be teaching you
everything you need to know about betting odds and why it's the fundamentals of
every betting strategy there are three types of odds American decimal and
fractional it doesn't matter what odds you use ultimately they are just a
representation of the probability and therefore price which we can see in an
example let's take a soccer game between Bayern Munich and PSG there are three
possible outcomes Bayern Munich wins PSG wins or the game ends in a draw American
odds are in the form of a positive or negative number if it's a positive number it
represents how much profit you can make if you bet a hundred dollars if it's a
negative number it represents how much you must risk to win a hundred dollars in
profit in this case 125 dollars to win a hundred dollars profit when buying Munich
fractional odds represent how much it would profit per one dollar you wage are so
if the odds were four and five you would get 80 cents profit for each one dollar
widget or one hundred and eighty dollars return in total on a 100 bet decimal odds
represent how much you would get back which includes both profit and your initial
stake per one dollar uh so if the odds were 1.8 and if you'd bet a hundred dollars
you would get back one hundred and eighty dollars there are formulas you can use to
convert between the types of odds that you can see on screen but you don't need to
worry too much about that it's more important to understand how odds are just a
reflection of prices using an analogy when you buy an item in the real world such
as a Ferrero chocolate there's a price you pay and there's the price of how much
it's actually worth these aren't always the same as for example if you bought it at
a convenient Union store it would probably be a bit more expensive in betting the
odds you get from a bookmaker represents the implied probability of an event
happening which is proportional to the price you pay for example if we look at the
bet on Bayern Munich decimal odds of 1.8 means the implied probability is one
overly odds or one over 1.8 which is an implied 55.6 chance of buy and winning we
can think of this as representing the price we pay which is 55.6 cents if the odds
were higher the implied probability would be lower meaning a lower price it's a bit
counter-intuitive but as you can see higher odds means a cheaper price now what is
the fair probability and level price of the bet on Bayern Munich we can get that
from the market otherwise known as a betting exchange which allows people to enter
prices they are willing to buy and sell certain items and trade with each other in
this case the product is bets on Bayern Munich as a result based on supply and
demand the odds and therefore or the probability and price eventually settled to a
fair value which is the fair odds of 1.895 the midpoint of the Best Buy and Sell
odds therefore the fair probability is 1 divided by 1.895 which is 52.8 percent
this means we can think of the fair price as 52.8 cents we can think of the bet on
Bayern Munich as the equivalent to that golden Ferrero Rocher it is worth 52.8
cents but the Sportsbook or bookmaker is selling it to us for 55.6 cents and that
2.8 difference is their margin or profit so then what does a 100 bet on Bayern
Munich actually mean it basically means you have bought 100 of Ferrero rochers at
55.6 cents each meaning we have 180 chocolates each chocolate is only worth 52.8
cents meaning our chocolates are worth only 94.99 and means we have lost five
dollars and one cent in value and that is the profit to the bookmaker sold it to us
different overpriced amount another important rule is that exactly only one of the
three possible events for the game outcome Market can occur which means the
probability of these events happening must sum up to one or a hundred percent so
either by a Munich will win it will be a draw or PSG will win only one and exactly
one of these things must happen we can see that some of the buy and sell
probabilities are very close to a hundred percent and their midpoint is 100.05
percent very close to theoretical a hundred percent continuing on with the analogy
you can think of Bayern Munich as the gold Ferrero PSG as the brown Ferrero and the
draw outcome as a white Ferrero chocolate the price of a collection pack that
contains one of each is equal to exactly one dollar meaning the sum of the value of
the three chocolates must also equal to one dollar however after converting the
decimal odds to prices we can see that the bookie is selling all the chocolates for
all the possible game outcomes above the fair price and pocketing the difference
while there is luck involved in who actually wins this game in the long term this
means the bookie is always profiting and their profit comes from customers who are
paying for their beds at higher prices or lower odds than what those are actually
worth in this case the total implied probability is 106.5 percent which represents
a 6.5 profit for the bookmaker depending on the market and the bookmaker this
profit percentage can vary but it will always be in their favor now as a pointer
you can either choose to not bet or you can choose to accept the higher prices or
worse than fair rides that the bookmaker is giving you however if you want to win
long term you need to find Opportunities where the price is cheaper and the odds
that are given to you by the bookmaker are higher than what the fair rides actually
are this can come either in the form of bookmaker mispricings or through the form
of special promotions that they offer and these two things together form probably a
hundred percent of all the profitable betting strategies out there you can check
out my other videos on betting strategies or for more detailed and actual betting
models that I use you can check out my tailored multi-part courses over on my
website these run for a few hours come with practice questions and examples to help
consolidate your understanding and Target real examples of bets that you can
actually place on certain Sports books and actually help you make some profit using
the bookmakers in your region if you enjoyed this video or learned something then
make sure to give it a big like down below and subscribe to this channel to not
miss out on the future betting tips and tricks that I have lined up as always take
care and I'll see you guys in the next video

so today we're talking to jonas who worked at a betting company bet365 he was a
trader there and mostly focused on in play golf he also worked at some leading
quantitative trading firms he then set up edulotto which helps people make a nice
consistent side income by taking advantage of the promotions on many different
bookmaker accounts so let's get started with some of the questions 99.5 percent of
people end up losing money when it comes to betting so why does this happen like is
it the odds are unfair or just like how do you think it like works out well firstly
the the bookies have the house edge they've got um that in their favor so if they
think uh something's a coin flip 50 50 they're not gonna be two dollars two dollars
there'll be a dollar 90.90 so most people understand that they've got the house
edge secondly the bookies use betting flows from customers to inform their pricing
so they're always trying to work out they're well aware that their pricing is not
perfect so when they profile customers they'll work out who's got a slight edge
over the bookies and then whenever those bets come through they'll massage their
pricing around the third point i'd say is it's even for those who find an edge in
the short run those edges often don't last forever so that's another thing working
against the punta and the fourth one i'd say which we cover a bit in in
professional trading and professional punting is cognitive biases if for some
reason humans aren't born natural uh professional battles or punters so um and that
results in the loss of discipline as well so when you put it all together yeah it's
only about five and a thousand that uh are long-term profitable how does like a
company like bet365 or any other bookie how do they actually like profile these
customers to prevent people from winning and like encourage people and keep the
people who have been consistently losing yeah good question um i mean i touched on
it a moment ago with regards to how the bookies profile customer accounts and
they're trying to work out if anyone's got an edge over the bookmaker in certain
markets the bookmakers are putting every client into a certain bucket and i'd say
there are four key buckets the first one is that of a true mug punter who they've
seen enough business from this character that they just like let that person on
you've got nothing we've got nothing to stress about the second one is one who's
almost just let them on for anything but but let's just keep an eye on them in
racing or greyhounds they've they've had a few bets there where it suggested that
um the they might be informed the third bucket and you can see the end of the
spectrum that we're working towards a third bucket is something where where and
accountants get gets restricted on certain markets so they literally their betting
limits are lower on certain markets and the fourth bucket is the bucket where the
bookies are basically just trying to do everything they can to not let that person
bet there are obviously minimum about laws in australia and certain parts of the
world so they have to abide by those but um that fourth bucket is that we don't
really want this person's business at all um so in terms of and how does that sort
of uh inform going you know a better going forward if you're looking to to win long
term we you want to avoid being in that fourth bucket you always want to try and be
in that first bucket by having some stealth edge but that is that is a holy grail
to be honest uh to find stealth edge and it's something that we at edge load will
play touch on it later um do help members with them so thanks for sharing about
those four categories but surely there's like some element that the bookies haven't
been able to cover is there like a big risk that they face um that they might not
be able to catch certain types of planters who are winning yeah sure i mean there
are various tactics that are used out there but but i suppose the the biggest risk
that the bookies face would be what's known as the upturned whale so it's the it's
the huge punter who's been donating hundreds of thousands maybe millions maybe even
tens of millions over the years to the bookies and but all of a sudden they they
turn sharp and so that's hence the term upturned well and look sometimes these
accounts are actually um influenced by by other other battles who do have an edge
over the bookies and they might have had a conversation at a pub how are you going
uh on upgrade i'm down 20 million dollars to bookie a over the last five years well
hang on a minute why don't we work together um to to try and get some money back so
that's one of the biggest risks that they face as soon as people start working
together it's not in a fraudulent manner it's more just in a in a way of um you
know these two bang their heads together and try and work out how they can outsmart
the markets given that they've got an account in that first bucket so that was very
insightful so let's say you do have an edge over the bookie and you don't have an
account that's been a whale and like just donating lots of money to the booker's
bookmakers for years how do you like prevent yourself from getting put into that
fourth bucket right away is there like some tips to like make your account last a
bit longer yeah i mean if you've got an edge over the wookies you've got to think
about things in terms of lifetime value if you just go in there and you've found an
edge and that's what you do you just hammer that edge the bookmaker is not going to
be very happy because you're on big movers or you your equity curve looks
phenomenal so what you really want to do is um is blend in other other betting
flows in there uh maybe just have some random bets on on the nba lines or top just
top tier sport is generally the bookies are very comfortable the pricing is going
to be right so they see that as a donation so essentially it's about blending mug
flow in with your sharp bets so that you've got this stealth edge that um that i
mentioned earlier which is the holy grail so right now if i just log on to tab or
sportswear i can see a whole heap of promotions that we can actually take advantage
of and make some money off so why are these cookies offering so much of these
promotions that they know they're going to lose money to like all these customers
well i mean the reality is they don't they number one the the bookie market in
australia has never been more more uh competitive so uh they're all battling for
market share and promotions they're the number one method that um through which
they acquire a lot of customers and actually reactivate customers the second point
i'd make is a lot of the great majority of the the promotions out there are bonus
bet offers so you get bonuses back if you run second or third or if my leg fails or
if you lose but you lead at half time or whatever it might be and and people in
australia just don't know how to use how to convert bonus bets if efficiently and
according to our um our research the average australian converts bonus into cash
about 30 so when the book is giving out a 50 bonus bet they see that as essentially
15 of cash value that's kind of the the core those are the cause of of how we're
here and and frankly the opportunities never been better to um to take advantage of
them because there are so many of them on a per bookie basis and also in terms of
the number of bookies out there there's a new one opening up every week the
barriers to entry aren't that high so if i go onto twitter i can easily find
someone's tips or free nrl free afl tips and i can see eight leg multis that have
one like ten thousand dollars what do you think about those like what's the reality
behind it uh it's scandalous at best uh we've done actually a lot of research into
the typical industry in australia and of the approximately five million active
horse racing and sports battles in australia approximately one million of those are
following tipping services so you're 20 following services and and you just play
reasonably assume that they're there they're following those to to try and improve
their chances but when you break it down you've got some serious issues in the in
the tipping industry about 500 000 of the the people who are following services
about half of them actually following affiliate tipsters and the way affiliate
tipsters operate is they'll they'll come up with an ad saying free tips but
nothing's free right we've all heard it and that's it's exactly the point here as
well the way that they profit is they'll you join their free service they've
probably got some made up historical results or they'll just be talking about the
one winner they've had in the last six months then they'll get you to join with a
bookmaker through one of their affiliate links and the deal is often such that the
the referrer so this the tipping service keeps about 30 of the future losses of
that customer referred into perpetuity so to say it's a conflict of interest to be
tipping and keeping percentage losses would probably be a little bit of an
understatement so that's that's the key one uh affiliates um the second issue in
the in the tipping industries is people just make up results there are there's no
anyone the barriers tend to basically zero so you can just talk about the one big
winner or you can frankly just make things up so there are a lot of services out
there with with no no track record but people are suckers for these unfortunately
those are really the two key problems there are a few legitimate services but out
of the 150 that we've we've seen in australia currently uh it's really only five or
six decent services out there so you run edge loader which gives up special tips to
people who are subscribed and how is that different to like all the other tipsters
that we just mentioned who are like affiliates and
not just costing you money yeah good question i mean number one we're independent
so we don't um we're not on these affiliate routes if you like uh number two we've
got a proven track record been operating for three years uh number three we've got
a just a pure quant approach to everything we're approaching things like a quant
trading firm uh essentially where we identify edge we backtest things we we run
them live and then we keep monitoring things so it's a very quant-driven approach
um it's and in with regards to that approach many of your listeners may have heard
of of matched betting and that's a you could call that a pure arbitrage approach
whereas we we're a statistical arbitrage we use that approach and what does that
mean well we're not always looking to hedge on betfair for example there are some
nuances there you pay that fair commission it's actually more expensive the long-
term expectancy is a lot lower if you're hedging all the time so we've got the
statistical arbitrage approach we focus on stake sizing diligently to protect the
downside etc so that's kind of our process and then education i'd say as well there
are many servers out there who will send you a few betting tools and that sort of
thing but we we have quite a a deep educational component to what we offer members
as well so um members are learning a lot along the way as well and you can see a
lot of the reviews online will sort of attest to what they've experienced both
financially in terms of learnings so you mentioned you have a lot of like
historical results from people actually making a profit um it's been consistently
going out and people have been reviewing it positively and what kind of numbers can
you put on it like so if i were to sign up to edula tomorrow in a week like what
would be the average amount i can expect to make from that yeah good question the
the average eduardo member makes 700 a week so some weeks we we might only make a
few hundred other weeks we might make a few grand but um you know you've seen the
system for a few months now i've been following you access checking out the tips
yeah i wanted to give you a feel for it you probably wanted to say it yourself but
the the way the profit chart works is it sort of you know it trends upwards but
it's not a straight line yeah um but yeah back to your question edulo members
average 700 a week some make far more than that essentially it just comes down to
how much how much betting volume you can get down the formula is as simple as uh
whatever your betting volume is on our tips multiplied by 31 so if you're betting
on 20 tips for 50 units that's a thousand dollars of turnover multiplied by 31 is
an expected 310 profit so as long as he's staking very diligently which we train um
all our members you that's that that number is very stable in the long run the only
other thing i'd add is and you might have seen this yourself over the last few few
months is the the two markets that we find bonus bet conversion uh the the most
success in is one is racing and the other is golf uh i'll touch on golf i've got to
i actually pursued a pro golf career myself at a younger age i had that role of
bet365 as an in-play golf trader essentially the head of asia in play gave me all
that sort of it has given me a lot of insight into the into the golf betting
markets and we're extremely efficient with with bonus bet conversion in golf at
well over a hundred percent so just thought i'd sort of tack that on there in terms
of um while we're on the topic of results so for those of you who want to get
started with betting but don't really want to be bothered learning all the maths
behind it which i teach in my sports betting course i've partnered with jonas and
eduletta to give you guys the tips in real time i've probably gotten hundreds of
partnership requests from either betting companies or tipping services but none of
them i've found trustworthy except for edulota and the reason i can trust them is
because i've seen their system in operation over the past three months and seen
them turn a consistent profit for their members and also i can see that their
strategy in finding these bets is pretty much how i personally do it myself as well
anyways you can use the link down below to get a two week free trial of edge loader
and see the bets in real time for yourselves and decide if it's something for you
or not you don't even have to bet you can if you want to and it's all completely
free for the first two weeks the first free trial group starts on june the 5th but
even if you're late don't worry the free trials will run every two weeks and once
you sign up you'll just be automatically put into the next available free trial
group if you enjoyed this video then make sure to give it a big like down below and
subscribe to this channel to not miss out on my other betting and money making tips
that i have lined up for you guys as always take care and i'll see you guys in the
next video

[Music] welcome to data driven sports betting I'm a train bets and I use my brain
to make bets and in this video we're getting back to basics we're going to talk
about the power of positive EV betting top- down betting if you will and I want to
explain this in terms for people who you know you may have done sports betting you
may have seen some stuff maybe have encountered my live stream or some of my my
YouTube shorts or Tik Tok videos and been like what's this guy talking about and
this is the video for you I'm going to explain what I'm talking about so I want you
to imagine if you will think about how people typically bet on Sports this is
probably true of all of us when we're getting started we like sports we like
playing sports we like watching sports we like to think we know something about
sports we follow our teams and we start to say you know what I like this team I
think this team's going to win today or you know like weather's bad might be an
under today you know things like that and we start focusing and thinking about the
the sides or the bets that you can make and and sports books are out there offering
a bunch of different plays you can make they're more than happy when you say hey I
think the Chicago Bears are going to win today they're going to be like we got a
bet for you and so that is how most people get started like I'll throw five bucks
on this I'll do my same game parlay and I'll see if I get lucky the fact is is
that's actually guaranteeing that if you do that enough times you're losing you're
losing no matter what you're losing and I'll tell you why instead of sports betting
let's think about this say you were in the market for a car go to the car
dealership and you're like you know what I pick winners I got stacks of cash I got
all my green slips give me a car and they'll be like what kind of car do you want
be like I like red cars got red cars salesperson summon you up he's like yeah yeah
yeah we got red cars we got red cars for you I like Fast red cars salesperson's
like we got you we got fast red cars and then you're like give me one of them fast
red cars and that salesperson you know that salesperson's going to do that
salesperson's going to be like okay $100,000 sign right here and you buy a car like
you bet Sports you're signing that he said give me that fast red car I want that
fast red car 100 Grand that's fine I got stacks of cash baby that salesperson you
don't know what they're going to come back with $100,000 you don't know if it's
going to be a good car or not you don't know if you get a good deal probably not
probably not cuz they don't tell you if you don't know how to know whether or not
the car they give you is good and you're just like give me a fast r car they're
like we got you and $100,000 could buy you a great deal on a Ferrari or sadly more
likely you're going to be overpaying for that red Ford to with rocket strapped on
the back and you're probably going to regret it that's crazy right you wouldn't do
that but yet that's how people bet Sports is that they only look at the team or the
side or the BET and they fail to realize that the BET itself is only a good bet at
a particular price that's how you shop for stuff why in the world do people
naturally make Sports bets and Financial I mind you you're not buying anything
other than Financial Risk here you're you're it's a risk reward it is a gamble why
in the world would you do that when there's information out there that you could
use to make a better purchase to make a better decision that is the problem with
the way people naturally Sports bet we'll get into more details on what to do about
that and how we overcome that but at its core if you are not using the odds which
are the prices in sports betting if you're not using those and are very sensitive
to those you are going to lose it doesn't matter how good you pick winners if
you're not calibrating to those odds you are going to lose because the Sports books
know the sports books know what you know for the most part maybe you know something
not enough when they know all the data they know all the prices and they get to
play Both Sides so I want you to think about something else before we get to the
details of sports betting I want you to think about something else so okay
hopefully at this point you agree buying a car like that probably wrong maybe I'm
interested in uh learning more how to do with the Sportsman thing cuz maybe that's
wrong there too fine I want to explain something in a little bit more detail flip
it a coin this is a great example because the odds of flipping a coin widely known
a Fair coin 50/50 50/50 Fair coin odds of winning either side heads or tales in
American odds if you are doing an American odds line true odds line for a coin flip
it would be plus 100 you can bet $10 to win $10 you can bet that all day long
that's fair odds but the way Sports books work and the way the reason that Sports
books exist is that they don't have to offer true odds on that coin flip and
actually they do have coin flip bets you can do like Super Bowl and some other big
games you can do coin flip bets they're not giving to you at plus 100 they're
giving it to you at minus 110 at best most likely unless they're running some sort
of promo or something but minus 110 means you got to pay $1 to win $10 on either
side you can pick your side but on either side you're paying 11 to win 10 well what
what happens there right if each person so if the entire Market of sports bets at a
sports book's offering everybody you say one person on each side very simple both
People BET $111 to win 10 okay one person wins and they get their $11 back plus 10
in profit the other one loses they lose their $11 the net of it is the book gives
out $21 and keeps one for themselves that is how Sports books exist that's how they
make money they get a premium on either side of the BET and that allows them to
have the ability to offer bets on both sides you I mean the beauty is about being a
sports better is you can decide when you want to bet you bet anything right now
granted over time they may realize you're pretty good at that and they might limit
you but you still have plenty of places you can go and play bets right so you can
choose which one of those deals you want to have therein is where we're going
because think about it from a coin flip perspective in a coin flip scenario if
somebody had flipped it around said hey you know what let's play some coin flipping
right normally we' do $10 a piece but I'm feeling lucky today to encourage you to
play coin flipping with me I'll give you $11 for every time you win will each be
betting 10 is that a game you want to play oh yeah oh yeah cuz you know what the
odds are you know it's 50/50 on that coin flip and so if you're betting $10 to win
11 and your opponent's betting $1 to win 10 you're gonna be doing okay you're gonna
be doing okay just repeat that game enough times you get all the dollars you know
it's going to be that way right so when the odds are known and you're getting
better payouts than the true odds are in our little coin flippy example then you
know you have an advantage and if you repeat that game enough times you will then
win money right a substantial amount of money so let's bring that to sports pending
so we've talked about ignoring prices and you know entirely not the way to go
understanding the odds of a simple game is pretty straightforward and understanding
why it works for the sports books and what situation you would encounter to then
get an advantage yourself I've got good news this happens in sports all the time
there's a catch but it happens all the time there are plenty of circumstances where
we can find where the odds of one bet winning of one wager winning on that side of
the BET opportunity is so positive compared to the actual price you have to pay
that you can win money long term this is the core of positive EV betting it's
basically saying hey hey we can understand what the true odds of something
happening are unfortunately a lot of the time it's not actually 50/50 so the masth
gets is more complicated but at its core it's the same deal the likelihood of one-
side winning is better than the price would suggest at this sports book that I can
go bet at so you go bad at that sports book win more often Because the actual odds
of winning now granted any given event you're going to win or lose but you do it
enough times and you have the edge in your favor you're going to win you're going
to win in the long term if you can bet with an advantage on each of the plays so
what that means is we need to find those plays and there's one core thing at the
heart of positive EV betting and that thing is the no viig odds the no viig odds if
you can figure out what those are will tell you whether or not anything else you're
looking at is a profitable play okay the problem is I told you there was a catch
the catch is nobody knows exactly what the Nova Nova gods are this is sports right
this isn't just coin flow you know it's 5050 no matter how hard you flick it no
matter how hard you flick it like what are you going to do a coin FL it's just
random right Sports has all of this chaos embedded within it individual players
travel schedules weather you know different times of year different motivations the
other team how good they're playing whole bunch of unknowns right however the
markets are the best way we know to estimate the likelihood of unknown things if
you get enough people thinking about this making actions on it it will turn out to
be the best estimate you can find of what those true odds are so we're going to use
that to our advantage and that is how we're going to get to that noig line that's
how we're going to get to that true odd so no Vig means no hold for the casinos for
the sports books the equivalent in sports of Flippy
coiny right so that is what we want to identify that is at the heart of positive
EV betting okay here's the problem though so there's a there's a concept that
underlies all this in the financial industry called the efficient market hypothesis
the efficient market hypothesis basically says what I just kind of explained the
markets know all the information collectively know all the information and based on
the people buying and selling or in this case betting on either side of with all
this information it's going to give us odds on average that represent the true
likelihood of either side occurring and if that works then there's no positive EV
plays to make here's the problem the efficient market hypothesis only applies sort
of in sports betting and the reason is is that first off unlike the financial
markets where you have a stock exchange say you have you know a trade happens for a
stock in London New York immediately knows about it right you have a a bet that you
make at DraftKings FanDuel doesn't immediately know about that Caesar doesn't
immediately know about that not to mention in addition to that lack of sharing of
information you also have in the us alone 50 separate jurisdictions all of whom are
making their own rules around sports betting which you can do which can't do how
many people can be in there all this stuff it's chaos it's a there's a lot of
craziness going on and then finally to complicate matters even more we have the
problem that in sports betting these Sports books who are setting the odds they're
not trying to get to truth they're not trying to get to the true odds they're not
trying to tell us what the actual likelihood is they have their own opinions
they're trying to take action on both sides they're trying to make money and
sometimes money comes from putting odds at a place where they don't reflect truth
because the public bets certain things remember we got a bunch of people that are
buying red sports cars without any even knowing what that means right that's the
problem we're using that information to determine these odds in a lot of places so
that's why we can't just say give us all that data give us all that information and
we're just going to you know know what truth is now so that's the problem that's
the art of sharp sports betting top down betting positive EV betting is how do you
get to that noig line all right I want to show you example so let's let's let's get
into a little bit more detail with the example here in this case we have a college
basketball game Louisville Cardinals North Carolina T Tar Heels right the no viig
odds in this case are represented here at this 116.2 in a train station which is
the tool we're using here we like to do things visually because we think it helps
analyze it and so we have a lot of the details we have a lot of the calculations
but we use a visual aid to help you understand where to take action in the market
however there's a lot to this right and so right now you might be like oh look at
this we got a NOA gods of 116.2 probably want to go B at P FanDuel here because it
looks like that plus 120 is better than 116.2 because that's a plus or minus
depending on which side you're on so it' be minus 116.2 over here plus 116.2 over
here FanDuel is better hey let's go back there there that might be what you want to
do but here's the deal what we have over here are book weightings now at a station
we believe that knowing this nove Gods is the heart of positive eveve betting we
believe it's really important to get to this number in a very transparent and
thorough way what we do is we offer default weightings of these different books
because like I was talking about how some sports books aren't super interested in
getting to truth some are so Pinnacle well regarded as one of the sharpest Sports
books out there if not by a wide margin the sharpest sports book out there we give
them a nine waiting in the current uh waiting that I'm using we give them nine
waiting that means they're nine times better than the average recreational book
like FanDuel because Pinnacle is known to try to offer odds that get us to truth
other books we're including a little bit because we're like hey they have different
opinions look at all these different odds they're all offering these different
things all on the same bet over under 572 on an alternate total so we can see here
that it really depends on your perspective whether or not this is a good play now
if I go and I say you know what I don't want to look at all the other books picles
are sharpest I just want to look at that so what I do here is when I click on pacle
and I say okay just show me Pinnacle you can see the average odds that we're in our
sharp waiting is that's what this dark area is You' say hey FanDuel is actually a
3% bet here based on the Pinnacle line alone this might be something I want to do
if you believe this is in fact the Nova Gods all you need is better than this to
have a positive EV plate to have that profitable opportunity think of it this way
the difference here is you have 1.74% the difference here is that you have a 3% and
when you do that you have more Advantage calculated this way both of them are
telling you pretty good advantages I like having multiple perspectives on what this
number should be because I don't know who's right on this particular case all I do
know is that that let's go back to our coin flip example for a second if you do the
coin flip example would you only do the coin flip example if you could say all
right I'll play your coiny flippy at your adjusted rules but instead of $11 I only
want to pay you $10.50 for every time I win and you only have to pay me $10 every
time you win that's still a bet you would want to take if you're getting the 1050
right so that's the difference here so on one hand this could be and that's I mean
in the coin flip example we know exactly what the odds are here we're just not sure
so it's basically more like saying you know what we're going to do 11 and 10 but
this coin might be not exactly 50% it actually comes up heads some amount of time
more than it comes up tails are you cool with that maybe or maybe not but that's
more like what sports betting is we don't know we have a range we have an idea we
think we know about where this Nova God should be but it's a matter of
interpretation of where is this sharpness and we believe that this is something
that is core to being a sharp Sports better is being able to understand how this
noig odds gets calculated everything else from a positive EV standpoint stems from
these Nova Gods right so that's all we're doing now once we get to this number
we're just looking hey Bandu plus 120 it's either bigger or smaller but it's
probably a good play If We Believe Pinnacle right in this case right so that is the
difference I mean that's all it is that's all positive EV betting is you can layer
in all this other calculations and bet sizing and hold and all these things but at
its core it's what is truth and what is the likelihood of winning and what are the
prices that you're getting that's it so you're going in and say hey you know what I
could go buy this particular red sports car maybe it's a a special edition you know
Mustang GT that you're getting for $35,000 that you know you can turn around and
sell for 45 when you have that kind of scenario that's exactly why you would make
that kind of BET right so that is at its core what positive EV betting is all about
it's all about saying what is truth what are the true odds of this occurring and
can I get a price that's better than that and when you do that then you do it many
times over and you play at the different books that are often these different
prices and you can start to understand okay where where can I determine sharpness
in this market versus that market or whatever it's a really fascinating complex
chess game that we play but at its end conceptually it is not too difficult the
beauty is too before we go the last thing I want to talk about is like you don't
have to abandon everything you know about betting everything you enjoy about
betting you know i' I've even been guilty of this at times of saying you know what
forget everything you know you got to do it this way and you know what I don't buy
that I don't buy that here's why because we know that there's a lot of uncertainty
in these markets there's a lot of uncertainty at these books and when that's the
case at the sports books these are professional organizations that exist to offer
betting markets and they're all over the place of course there's opportunities for
information to help us Beyond just looking at the data and the numbers saying oh
this looks like the the NOA ODS are right so we couple and what we do at a train
station all the time is we're we're looking for opportunities where yay that top-
down analysis that positive EV analysis looks good like when we are looking at this
play one thing is absolutely certain is if you are going to play over 157 and a
half on this Louisville Cardinals North Carolina Tar Heels fanduel's got the best
price that much is certain right Pinnacle if you wanted to play the other side has
the best price on the other side right this number all the way to the left that's
the number you want so that much is certain we would tend to think from a positive
EV perspective we'd rather play a FanDuel than Pinnacle fine but what if you happen
to be cousins with the people starting on the Louisville Cardinals team whatever
what if you have been watching this in your season ticket hold you watch every
single game and you know they were dragging at the end of the last game they really
need a break and they're playing back toback nights is that commonly known
information is that fully baked into all these numbers I don't know that it is so
there's plenty of edges you can get
in sports betting that come from bottom up and you don't have to abandon that that
bet selection where you can say hey well we know this is a good play quantitatively
but when I use my sports knowledge I might think this is a better or worse play and
if you just say hey I really like this from my sports knowledge perspective too
that's one more reason why you might want to play it if you're like I really don't
like this I really think they're going to be under I think it's going to be that
well you could make a couple different decisions you could override the
quantitative perspective at least price shop for this side or you just walk away
you say you know what no car today for me I'll just I I'll look at it next weekend
maybe there's a better sale next weekend right and you can watch for more
opportunities to make that play that is where you can really start to shine as a
sharp Sports better because then you start playing to the strengths with a full
breadth of information that's what it's about data driven sports betting letting
all the information drive your sports betting let all the information that you can
consider help you make the right decisions you know and even when you make the
right decisions you're going to have winning days and you have losing days because
the normal variance of people playing a game it's going to happen right that's just
how it is so it's an amazing game we play in sports betting and it's something that
I think is being misplayed by most of the people out there and our goal with a
train station to make it so everybody who wants to have a better shot everybody who
wants to put in a little work everybody who wants to understand things a little bit
better can and have more success by using that data in a more productive way so
hopefully this introduction type of video this this kind of core concept video is
useful even for those who've been doing this for a long time I think sometimes it's
nice to step back and think about these things from the big picture so with that
please check out my other videos got plenty of other content we do live streams
every day always looking to help and and the goal here is to make everybody the
sharpest Sports better they can be and with that this train is leaving the station
until next time save your units for the Bros and do your betting like the pros
thanks [Music] everyone

hey what's up YouTube really excited to bring you this video because I made over
$70,000 betting on sports in September and that's what I'm going to be going
through strategies and tips for making money betting on sports and how I was able
to do this basically all of my picks are given out for free you know on Twitter or
twitch a lot of people have asked me can you do fulllength YouTube videos with your
picks but that's a little tougher because I never know when the line's going to
move or odds could change a player could get ruled out so I really prefer to stick
to Twitch for live streams and then also to Twitter but anyways the month started
out pretty brutal you can see I was down over $20,000 but again as a sports better
I really think like an investor I try to have a long-term you know mindset I know
not every single day is going to be a winner so I stick with the process and was
able to end up over $70,000 on the month and honestly that's just how it is
sometimes like there was a month in the summer when you only had MLB going on where
in June I think it was I lost like $5,000 $6,000 in May I made money in June I did
the exact same thing my exact same betting process I lost $66,000 was on a horrible
losing streak and then right away in early July I had some huge wins that put me up
over $70,000 on the month so long story short like so many people I've placed
thousands of bets this year so many people like to Zone in on individual bets that
win or lose but the truth is as a sports better everybody can win a bet it's really
about having a long-term focus and trying to make money longterm but anyways we're
going to get into strategies stuff like that but if you enjoy this type of content
please like the video subscribe to the channel comment any questions you know I
give out a ton of sports betting content for free every single day I love helping
people beat the sports books so any questions you have also any video ideas you
have I'm always looking for new good content ideas please feel free to you know
comment all of that sort of stuff but anyways this month um of September obviously
football returned which made it pretty easy to make money in my opinion football is
one of the best sports to bet on but going into October I'm up over $220,000
October is an amazing month for sports betting the NHL starts college basketball
NBA also start so more Sports means there's going to be more profitable bets right
like obviously the summer when you only have baseball going on it's not exactly the
best time to be betting on sports and having a losing month like I had in June it's
not particularly surprising but the first thing I wanted to mention is the
strategies we're going to be discussing they can be applied to any sports book
right like I don't know where you're located but in the US all states have
different sports books in Kansas there's different different sports books from in
California all these states have different books I always encourage you know if
you're just starting um to bet on Sports you want to use as many books as possible
I mean you can see my results right here this bet tracker that I use is called
picket Sports it's a verified bet tracker basically what it does is it reads in it
syncs with your sports books reads in all your bets shows you your profit and loss
so I use a ton of different books right depending on where I'm at you know I'm
initially from Virginia so if I'm at home in Virginia I'll use different sports
books then let's say I have a bachelor party coming up in October in Texas
obviously I'm going to place bets when I'm in Texas I'm there for the Georgia um
versus Texas game but regardless like I use a bunch of different sports books
sometimes it changes up based on you know where I'm located but regardless on fliff
this is a sports book that's legal basically everywhere in the US I'm up over
$96,000 I've run insanely hot on fliff there's been a ton of value but the run I'm
on on fliff is pretty incredible since football season started on FanDuel I'm
losing money this year I don't really know why I'm just cold on FanDuel last year
the year before I made money so I kind of attribute that to variant you're going to
run hot on some books you're going to run cold on some books that's just kind of
how it is it's all about you know your long-term your total Roi so anyways the
strategies we're going to discuss on underdog fantasy prize picks better fliff
FanDuel you can use them on any sports book um in general depending on where you're
located you may use different books than me but hopefully this video is still
helpful to you the final thing I wanted to mention is a lot of the strategies we're
going to discuss can be applied to any sport obviously in September with college
football NFL starting I did a lot of NFL bets NFL parlays NFL fantasy plays on
sites like prize picks but with NBA returning obviously I'm going to bet on
basketball I bet on tennis I bet on Esports to be completely honest I don't really
care what I'm betting on as long as I'm getting an edge in making money there can
be really sharp profitable bets in tennis Esports whatever I don't really care that
much about the sport if I'm being completely honest but again first tip I wanted to
mention is sign up for as many possible Sports books as you can okay like I've used
over 50 Sports books I traveled to Colorado when Colorado legalized sports betting
I think they were the second state to I literally went to Colorado to sign up for
the sports books and do the deposit bonuses a new sports book launched in Colorado
at the time it was called Sports Illustrated they had a 7.5k risk-free bet that
signup promo alone a 7.5k risk-free BET right you place a bet for 7,500 bucks if it
loses you get your money back insanely profitable that paid for the entire trip but
the main reason aside from just taking advantage of promos sign up bonuses one
reason you want to use multiple books is in sports betting all these books set
their own prices their own odds so for example One play I locked in for Thursday
Night Football between the Falcons and the Bucks the game hasn't started so if this
bet loses hopefully you don't think I'm an idiot but was bejon Robinson over 24 1
half receiving yards if you look at every other sports book bet online had his line
at 30 A2 prize pick had his line at like 292 all these books set their own lines I
got Bean Robinson's over 24 and a half so if he has 25 receiving yards my over
would win on this sports book called fliff which is legal again basically in every
state so bejon has 25 receiving yards I'll win my bet on fliff on BET on line on
prize picks I'd lose so these things may seem small and it doesn't really matter
you know if you're only placing one bet a week for $20 with your friends but if
you're really trying to make money sports betting you got to be getting over 242 as
opposed to over 302 when you can find discrepancies between sports books all these
books set their own lines you know just think about it it's like if you were trying
to be a day trader and instead of buying a stock at 2450 you had to pay 3050 it's
going to be really hard to make money long term if you have to pay you know 30%
more than everybody else does so literally finding value using multiple books all
these books look at their own odds their own lines is the first step it is sports
betting 101 if you want to make money you need to be using multiple Sports books
and if you have any questions about sports books include my email in the
description email me anytime or comment any questions you have about any of these
Sports books we go through in this video so the first strategy we're going to
discuss is taking advantage of really profitable promos and this is near and dear
to my heart because when I started gambling I just left College I didn't have a lot
of money a lot of my co-workers were starting to bet on Sports I wanted to get
involved and they told me yo these promos are pretty low risk they're super
profitable have a really high Roi and you know you don't need to bet a lot of money
to have success with them so that's what I started doing and I realized wow even
just betting these promos I can make a few thousand a month if I'm picking the
correct promos the profitable promos and I'm using mult mple books I can make a few
thousand Profit just playing sports book promotions which is crazy but it's true
all of these Sports books you know FanDuel DraftKings and fantasy sites like prize
picks and Underdog fantasy they're commodity businesses they all do the same thing
they just take action and then if your play wins they pay you out they're commodity
businesses there's really no difference between FanDuel and DraftKings so the way
they try to appeal to betters and Market themselves a lot of times is by running
promos so for example on this site called prize picks which is a fantasy platform
that's super popular has grown a lot in popularity they do a promo called Taco
Tuesday so every single Tuesday they'll discount a bunch of players lines and this
past Tuesday I'm recording this video on a Thursday and I just saw my play on beon
Robinson lost that I used in the last clip but whatever I mean every Sports better
you're going to have winning bets Lo losing bets winning days losing days so
hopefully you don't read too much into that um but anyways they were running a
discount on Michael King they were reducing his line from 5 and a half to three and
a half strikeouts so if King had four or five strikeouts you wouldn't win if you
bet is over 4 and A2 but if you bet is over three and a half the discounted line of
course your you know wager would win so I gave out a play for this on Twitter and
you can see it ended up cashing a bunch of people were able to tail it and it's the
same thing they also had a discount on Wilson I gave out
a slip for that I believe it was on live stream that ended up cashing and again
like these promos are easy value it's the easiest money you're going to make sports
betting it's not just prize picks that runs promos for example every single
Wednesday and Sunday another fantasy platform called sleeper they'll run discounted
lines this past weekend in the NFL they had saquin they had Nico Collins I gave out
plays for those both both of them ended up cashing so long story short like there's
loow hanging fruit in sports betting these $10 super high Roi bets where they're
discounting a player you know they may not seem that impactful but if you're using
a variety of sports books like I am fliff prize picks FanDuel DraftKings Underdog
fantasy all these books r on promos on a weekly basis or daily basis some of them
run deposit matches stuff like that you know the money Stacks up quickly The Profit
Stacks up quickly so if you're using a bunch of books especially if you're a lower
bankroll better or you're just starting to get your feet wet in sports betting I
recommend just bet the promos take advantage of the super Roi you know the low
hanging fruit that these books are going to offer you so we just went through
promos and I showed you some discounted projections for prize picks Taco Tuesday so
why don't we start out with prize picks prize pick is a fantasy book and there's
four main fantasy books that I use Underdog fantasy better prize picks and Dabble
and the reason I want to discuss these first is you can see they're pretty
impactful in terms of my profit and loss for this year what's nice about fantasy
books like prize picks is they're legal in Most states most people have access to
them if you're in California or in Texas you don't have access to FanDuel or
DraftKings the main sports books in the us but you do have access to fantasy books
which can be super profitable so you can see on these fantasy books Underdog
fantasy I'm up over $115,000 this year dabble another 30,000 and then um on better
I'm up over $70,000 so these fantasy bucks can be super profitable but they're a
little unique and the reason these fantasy bucks are unique is they have fixed
payouts so what I mean by that is on prize picks any two-p pick entry it doesn't
matter what two picks you select NBA MLB NFL whatever any two-p pick entry you're
going to get a 3X payout so you're putting down 100 to win 300 200 in profit it
doesn't matter if you take a player's over or they're under as you can kind of see
in this little video we switch him from an over to an under we're going to get the
same payout that's really different from a traditional sports book like FanDuel if
you look at FanDuel Kyle mcord if you take his over in passing yards you're getting
plus 140 odds you're betting 100 to win 140 in profit on the other hand his under
is minus 188 odds you have to bet 188 to win 100 in profit so you're getting a much
better payout on the over because the under is the favorite outcome so the strategy
for beating fantasy books which are super super profitable is you want to compare
the lines on fantasy books to sports books so I follow again a super data driven
approach to my sports betting I don't bet with my gut I don't bet with my emotions
that's what 99% of sports bets do most sports betters lose money I don't do that I
just follow the data so if you look at this play I included in my prize pick slip
that I gave out on Twitter it was Carrington over 12 A2 points so this was a line
available on prize picks and I thought the over was a really sharp pick so first
and foremost if you looked at Carrington's line on every other sports book most of
the other books had her line at 132 but then you can see some sports books still
had her line at 12 A2 like Circa Circa is known to be a really sharp book They're
experts in setting lines it's a book you know they're taking Wagers they have
really good models it's a huge sports book They're experts in setting lines they
had Carrington's over 122 points as a minus 145 favorite so the sports book Circa
is telling you through their odds that hey we think Carrington is much more likely
to go over so even if you don't use Circa it's a really sharp sports book known for
having really accurate lines you still want to put some weight into their odds same
with every other sports book there's 200 bucks in the US all these Sports books are
data points on where should the line be set the same way a stock price represents
the market valuation of a company right when people say Oh Google's a $3 trillion
company that's based on their stock price so stock price reflects company value
it's the same thing in sports betting if all of the sports books have Carrington's
over heavily favored they're telling you hey based on our models all the bets we're
seeing you know in the market these books aren't stupid if all the sharp profitable
bets are betting her over they'll move the line higher or they'll make the over a
bigger favorite right maybe they move the over from minus one 45 to- 160 making the
over an even bigger favorite right A minus 200 favorite means a 2:1 favorite 2/3 to
win minus 300 that team is still favored or that bet is still favored but now it's
a 3 to1 favorite 75% implied win probability so basically for Carrington Sports
books either had her line higher at 135 or they at our line at 12 a half with the
over heavily favored so I'm using information in the market even if I'm not in
Colorado I'm not using Circa Sportsbook I still want to look at their lines as a
source of information they're telling me hey her over is heavily favored so that's
a sharp pick on prize picks prize picks would give me the same payout if I take her
over or her under so I want to be on the over because the entire betting Market all
the sports books have her over heavily favored her over 12 1 12 points or they have
her line higher in the first place at 132 so these fantasy books are super explo
exploitable because they have fixed payouts and that's very different from a
traditional sports book now one thing I want to mention is you may say hey why are
you up so much money on better $70,000 you're only up $115,000 let's say on
Underdog fantasy and the reason is limits so if you look right here you'll see on
Underdog fantasy I can only bet $50 that is the max bet size that they give me
historically like 2 years ago I made made a lot more money on Underdog fantasy I
started using Underdog in 2022 in late 2022 around football season and I made you
can see almost $50,000 cuz I was able to bet $2,000 whatever as soon as the sports
book realized as soon as Underdog fantasy realized hey this guy's beating us he's
taking our money they cut down my bet size initially from 2,000 to 1,000 then 1,000
to 500 500 to 250 250 to 100 that's just kind of part of the game as a sharp
profitable better some books are going to cut down your bet size obviously even
with $50 bet sizes I've still been able to be pretty successful on Underdog fantasy
I'm up over $115,000 this year with just $50 Max betting limits but it kind of
sucks it's the same thing on dabble dabble is a new fantasy book that launched
again prize picks Underdog dabble better all these books set their own lines
sometimes there's more value on dabble so I place more plays on dabble sometimes
there's more value on prize picks but dabble I started using it in January I made
$33,000 in the month I was able to bet $2,000 a play after making 33 Grand in a
month which I'd say was worth it they cut down my bet size to $50 a play so I just
don't use it as much so a couple more things I want to mention about these fantasy
books before we move on to traditional Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings is
they don't have the same payout always so for example it's really important to
understand for each platform what's the optimal number of picks to go with on
Underdog fantasy they give you a 6X payout on three mans so for a three- pick entry
you're putting down 100 to win 600 on prize picks they're super cheap they only
give you a 5x payout so assuming Underdog and prize picks have the exact same lines
you're getting a 5x payout on prize pick a 6X payout on underdog if you want to run
a three man you obviously want to run your three man on Underdog there's not a
single profitable better playing three man on prize picks because they're
absolutely horrible they're giving you a horrible payout and the difference between
getting a 5x payout and a 6X payout makes a huge difference long term in terms of
your Roi so it's really important to understand for all these different fantasy
platforms what's the optimal number of picks to go with which I have kind of
highlighted here on the screen now the second thing I wanted to mention is because
these fantasy books have fixed payouts you can exploit what's called correlation so
you can't do this on traditional Sports books but I'll give you a simple example in
the Vikings game Sam darnold's the quarterback Justin Jefferson's the main target
his main target main receiver if Sam darnold goes under in passing yards then
obviously Justin Jefferson's going to be more likely to go under and receiving
yards so even though the odds on FanDuel are the same on Justin Jefferson his over
and his under because these picks are in the same game you're going to get a
different payout if you take Jefferson over darnold under right you can see you're
going to get if you take one over one under darnold under Jefferson over you'll get
a plus 359 payout on your parlay whereas if you play both unders because these
plays are positively correlated you're going to get a plus 155 payout so the reason
this is really important is on fantasy books again they have fixed payouts so if
you take a player's over or they're under you'll get the same payout so let me give
you a simple example of how to exploit
correlation this example is from the MLB and you can see I had two pretty big wins
I forget exactly when this game was but I gave out these plays you know as usual
for free a bunch of people tailed it is I had Cal over 1 and a half hits and JP
Crawford over one and a half hits so on better regardless of what type of slip we
go with if you're playing one regular play and two boosted plays you're going to
get a 20x payout so if I would have taken Cal a player on the Mariners or a player
on a different team I'd be getting the same payout so stacking MLB overs and hits
is positively correlated if Cal goes over in hits that means the Mariners probably
have a pretty good scoring game and JP Crawford's going to be more likely to go
over in hits as well right like if the Mariners are having a great game they're
getting on base Cal's going to be more likely to go over they're having more at
bats JP Crawford's going to be more likely to go over in hits so these two picks
are positively correlated we have an advantage pairing them together in a slip so
long story short there's tons of correlations for Esports for NFL for baseball that
can exploit on prize picks um so for example that previous Taco Tuesday play I
showed you we were on King over in strikeouts azuna under in hits plus runs plus
rbi's right if Michael King is getting a ton of strikeouts you know pitching a good
game then azuna a hitter on the opposing team is going to be more likely to go
under so those plays are positively correlated and on prize picks for a fourman
they didn't add a pay payout shift so I'd get the same payout if I took auna over
or his under and what I will say is some of these books you know you got to get a
little creative because you'll notice on prize picks depending on what slip you
included in if you try to stack in darnold is under with Jefferson's under prize
pick will add in a payout shift they'll reduce your payout prize pick typically
gives you a 10x on four pick power plays they're going to reduce it to a 7x payout
because are stacking you know correlated plays wide receiver under quarterback
under so long story short all that means is you need to be a little careful on
prize picks when you're trying to correlate plays or on better to not get these
payout shifts because these Sports books sometimes these fantasy books will try to
reduce your payout if you're trying to correlate plays so you have to pick your
spots well so the next strategy I want to discuss that I absolutely love using this
is one of the first betting strategies I used when I started gambling is called
Arbitrage betting so I've talked about this in other videos but again all sports
books set their own odds and sometimes out of the millions of odds across Sports
books every single sports book has like 50,000 lines up at any given time sometimes
two sports books get so out of sync they have such different odds where you can
play the over on one book the under on a different book and guarantee a profit so
you can hedge and guarantee that you're going to make money so this is called
Arbitrage betting you'll see tons of people having success with Arbitrage betting
on Twitter and talking about it so I'll give you a simple example of an Arbitrage
bet and again when you're Arbitrage betting you're making risk-free money this is a
lowrisk strategy if you're doing it right but because these opportunities you're
day trading the books to guarantee a profit sometimes they can move pretty quick so
knowing to navigate the sports books you know get to these Arbitrage plays quickly
is really important so for example you look right here you can see Gino Smith over
342 passing attempts is plus 120 on this sports book called fliff another book
better has the over at minus 131 so these books are super different one book has
the over at plus 1220 another book -131 with the under at - 104 so basically what
you can do is pull up what's called an Arbitrage calculator and what this
calculator will tell you is hey if you bet $500 on the over which I put in for the
fliff side fliff they have a Max bet size of $500 so assuming you bet the max maybe
you don't bet the max what the calculator tells you is yo bet 5678 on the under at
minus 104 odds and you'll make 3922 in risk-free profit so it won't matter if Gino
has 35 or more if the over wins or if the under wins it won't matter regardless of
the result you're going to make 3922 in risk-free profit so that's Arbitrage
betting when two books get super out of sync you bet the over you bet the under on
a different book you guarantee a profit you're hedging for a win and you'll see
tons of people talking about this strategy on Twitter um I have one tip for
Arbitrage betting aside from just moving quickly knowing how to navigate the sports
books and that's round the calculator right you don't want to sketch out the sports
books so what I recommend doing not that it's the end of the world but I always
recommend just round your bet size from 56078 just round it down to 560 all that's
going to do is slightly change your profit if Gino goes over versus Under if you're
betting Less on the under if Gino goes over you'll make slightly more than 3922 if
he goes under you'll make slightly less than 3922 but anyways that's basically the
main tip I have so we can go through this example of an Arbitrage play and then
we'll move on to other strategies so the reason I loved Arbitrage betting when I
started to gamble is it is literally literally risk-free money if you're doing it
correctly which is absolutely insane you know when I started sports betting I was
just starting my career working in Pennsylvania I was scared about losing money so
Arbitrage betting was a way to make money money grow my sports betting bankroll in
a risk-free way and you may look at this goino ARB and be like who cares you're
making $39 in risk-free profit I see people every single day hitting $1 to win a
th000 parlays and I mean sure whatever every single day someone's going to win a
crazy parlay on social media you're never going to see the people who are losing
this is a guaranteed way to make money and even though this Arbitrage play it's
only making $39 risk-free these bets only take maybe 20 30 seconds to lock in
you're just day trading the books so sure whatever you're only making $39 risk-free
but go hit 10 Arbitrage bets in an hour and you're up $390 of risk-free profit and
you get your money back the second the game ends so long story short Arbitrage
betting it's a super powerful sharp strategy a ton of pro sports bets syndicates
use this exact strategy but I figured what may be helpful to just kind of break
down how are you making a risk-free 39 bucks is going through the math so let's say
we bet $500 on gs's over at plus 120 on fliff and then we hedge we bet is under at
minus 104 on better better has a sports book they also have a fantasy site again as
an Arbitrage better you want to use as many sports books as possible more books
more Arbitrage opportunities you never know which book is going to have the best
Arbitrage plays on a given day so let's say Gino goes over if he goes over we win
our bet on fliff WE bet 500 at plus 120 odds so we're going to win 600 profit on
better I said round the calculator from 56078 down to 560 so we win 600 on fliff we
lose 560 on better we're up $40 that's $40 of risk-free profit now with Arbitrage
you're is going to win one bet lose one bet so if Gino goes over we win our bet on
fliff we lose on better it sounds crazy betting an over and an under you're hedging
for a profit if Gino goes over we make $40 in risk-free profit on the other hand if
Gino goes under well we're going to lose $500 on fliff WE bet 500 at plus 120 so
Gino has 34 or less we lose our over on fliff on better we win 560 * 100 over 104
right we're betting 560 at- 104 odds so we win 538 46 in profit so we're up a net
of $38 46 we just made 38 bucks risk-free again the slight difference is $40 risk-
free profit if Gino goes over 3846 if he goes under are just because we rounded the
Arbitrage calculator we rounded down on better from 56078 to 560 since we don't
want to sketch out the sports books so you know when I started sports betting I
would literally get home from work start looking for Arbitrage bets I did this
manually right now there software for it odds Jam has a betting tool for Arbitrage
I used to get home from work at 5:00 p.m. I would pull up the sports books look all
night long for these Arbitrage plays manually to make a risk-free $10 here $20
there $30 there by the end of the night maybe I'm up $200 risk-free that's really
significant right that's a a lot of money especially when you're just leaving
College entering the workforce it really helped me you know get some savings that I
could do a lot of things with like travel and stuff like that but anyways Arbitrage
betting really great lowrisk strategy that I highly recommend now another thing I
wanted to talk about another lowrisk strategy that I love doing is Middle betting
the same way all sports books set their own odds they also set their own lines so I
explained this play in another video so I'll keep it brief but dju his passing
yards line was 2095 on fliff 192 A2 on FanDuel so you have a 17 yard discrepancy so
many sports bets think in terms of betting the over or betting the under but it
really depends like where's the line set I think we all agree if Patrick Mahomes
line were 800 passing yards we'd want to take the under if it's 15 yards we'd want
to be on the over so so it really is devils in the details where is the line being
set so essentially when you're middle betting you're playing books at different
lines you're always going to win one bet and at least one bet so for example in
this middle play I I played DJ's under 209 half on fliff I played his over 192 and
a half on FanDuel if he had 193
to 209 passing yards a 17 yard Gap then I'm going to win both bets so midd I call
them the lowrisk lottery tickets a sports betting if DJ had 193 to 209 yards I
would win both bets and you can see that's actually happened twice this season this
middle bet won he had exactly 201 yards so I win my over 192 half on FanDuel I also
win my under 209 half on fliff right I win both bets the over for dju and the under
and again in his first four games he fell between 193 and 209 in two games so
middles they may seem like uh there's no chance he ends up between 193 and 209 but
you have to remember a player's passing yards line it kind of follows like a bell
curve DJ he's not going to throw for zero passing yards he's not going to throw for
2,000 so kind of the Yards around where his line is centered the standard amount of
yards he throws are really impactful so long story short short middle betting and
Arbitrage betting are two really great low-risk betting strategies that I love to
use on you know a weekly basis so the final strategy I like is called positive EV
betting so it's called positive EV betting and it just means finding Bets with an
edge so I'll give you an example of a play I gave out on Twitter is Nevada team
total I included this in a parlay if a bet is profitable or plus EV positive Roi
has an edge whatever term you want to use if a bet is profitable it's going to be
profitable in a parlay or as a straight bet so I played Nevada over 9 1 half first
half team total fliff had this at minus 115 every other sports book had the over
around like- 140 including Pinnacle they had the over at minus 141 Pinnacle is
known to be a really sharp accurate sports book so again there's millions of odds
across Sports books we're trying to Zone in on the few rare bets that actually have
enough value to justify betting we're thinking like an investor like a hedge fund
right there's millions of possible Investments we want to Zone in on the few
Investments that have the best projected Roi so essentially what you'll notice is
fliff all sports books set their own odds the Market's super fragmented inefficient
fliff they had his under favored right they had his under at minus 130 so they had
more juice towards the under Flip's model had the under as the favorite outcome
they had the over at minus 115 every other sports book had the over as a heavy
favorite around likeus 140 so this was a very clear I'm using information in the
market even though Pinnacle isn't a sports book you can use in the US it's not a
book that's available if you're in the US it's one of the sharpest Sports books in
the world so we want to put weight into their odds they have the over heavily
favored as a minus 141 favorite so I'm using that information to identify value on
a sports book that I use like fliff so this is a play that I locked in I thought
the BET had a pretty good you know strong Roi or Edge however you want to think
about it so I included it in a parlay anyways we explained a lot of things in this
video I really hope you found the video helpful again please like the video
subscribe to the channel comment any questions you have as well as video ideas I
love helping people make money sports betting I love giving out my picks every
single day so any types of content you want to see please let me know in the
comments and again thank you so much for your time

the key to a profitable betting strategy is to place value bets you aren't going to
win every bet of course but if you consistently place bets at odds higher than what
the true odds are you are going to be profitable in the long term but as you
probably already know Finding value bets can be a very difficult process in this
video instead of generic we're talking about finding value bets I'm going to break
down a specific example of finding a value bet using a three-step strategy I've
been using this three-step strategy for the past few months now and although some
days the variance is bad some days the results are much better and overall I've
been able to make this strategy profitable in the long run in an ideal world you
can use betting models to predict what the odds of a game should be and compare the
model's odds to the actual odds to see if there is discrepancy but this isn't an
Ideal World don't get me wrong models are useful but the problem is there's too
many variables and too much uncertainty for you to rely on them plus unless you
have genuine expertise in modeling and statistics with every model you're trying to
use is probably already priced into the market by people who are more informed than
you therefore my emphasis when I'm trying to find Value in the markets is moving
further and further away from trying to accurately calculate in a model type
situation what the odd should be and moving more towards a critical thinking
approach using my football experience and my market experience to try and identify
Miss pricings the principle of this strategy is to identify Miss praisins by
comparing the odds of a game to what the efficient odds should be for this type of
game and then determine what the reords should be what your potential edges from
the BET The Game I'm using in this video as an example for this strategy is a
Champions League game between Frankfurt and Napoli by the end of this video I will
have walked you through step by step how I came to the conclusion that back in
Napoli the odds of 2.26 was in my opinion a value bet foreign of this strategy is
an initial assessment of the odds and in finding reference games and I'll explain
what reference games are in a little moment in general at the start of the process
when I'm looking for Value bets I just dive straight onto batfa and braise the odds
of upcoming games I've seen the odds of thousands of games in my betting career so
I've developed a good intuition when the odds in a game look a little bit off and
you can do this too it doesn't take that many markets for you to start seeing
suspicious looking Gods when scrolling through the days games this isn't to say
that anytime you believe that you've seen a misprice in in the market that you
simply just jump in there and place a back bet because that would be a very foolish
thing to do instead I would investigate the situation further and live after
analyzing the situation it still looks like the value bet is there then you would
go in and place the bet in the market on first reaction to seeing the odds in the
Frankfurt and Napoli game I was instinctively drawn to Napoli's odds to win the
game at 2.26 and for yes those odds look far too big to me so why did I think
Napoli were valued to back what is it that I'm looking for to identify these
potential mispricings essentially I'm using the odds from previous Premier League
games a league in which I'm very familiar with to find what I call reference games
a reference game is a pass game which I believe are fairly accurate or efficient
odds icon per reference games with games I want to bet on in different leagues and
competitions around the world this all may sound a little bit strange to you so let
me explain in football there's only a limited number of variations of types of
games that can happen for example a league leader May face a team fighting
relegation to inform top half teams could face off or maybe it's a relegation scrap
when you look into it there's actually quite a few variations of football matches
that are possible of course but the number is limited and once you start to see
many many football matches you start to become familiar with the odds and you start
to see repeatable patterns in the odds and you become accustomed to what the odds
should be for specific types of football matches to find reference games you want
to search in the league that you have the most knowledge in for me that is the
Premier League in the Premier League I've seen every type of game possible
countless times so I'm fairly comfortable using the Premier League as a reference
for the leagues and competitions around the world particularly those that I'm not
as familiar with yes I know a fur bits about Napoli and I know a little bit about
Frankfurt but I'm definitely not an expert so I can use the Premier League as a
reference to then assess the Frankfurt and Napoli game so how is it that I can do
that Napoli were praised between out of 2.2 and 2.3 clearly is a different
competition but immediately I'm thinking that if this game was theoretically in the
Premier League what would these odds be telling me about the expected difference in
quality between the two teams and what type of games would we be expecting to see
to find the reference games that we're going to use on our Target game eye check
and odds compiling website like odds portal to view the odds of previous games I'm
looking to find a favorite playing away from home there was odds to win between 2.2
and 2.3 to match the situation in an apple game we see it here for example when Man
City played arsenal we also see it in games like West Ham vs Chelsea and Crystal
Palace versus Spurs for using my Premier League knowledge regarding the quality of
these teams at the time that these games were played they can reasonably assess
that odds of 2.2 or 2.3 typically present themselves in extremely close games and
the favorite is only narrowly expected to win Arsenal vs Man City was first versus
second and it was too tactically Elite teams facing off West Ham and Chelsea and
Palace versus Spurs for example of games of a decent team on paper facing a weaker
team but in reality it's actually a very inconsistent team struggling for a form
going to a very difficult place to play up against a technically lesser side but
with an incredibly High motivation to pick up points in this step of finding the
reference games and looking for as many games as possible because I'm trying to
find accurate odds and if I just find one game there's no way of saying that this
game actually had inefficient odds which would make it useless as a reference game
to compare to the game that I want to bet on but if you find numerous games in the
relevant odds range then what are the chances that all these games add inefficient
odds it's very low looking at the reference games that we have gathered we can now
begin to build a picture to see if it was justifiable for Napoli to be at the odds
that they were for this game from my initial analysis using the reference games I'm
Define an away favorite odds of between 2.2 and 2.3 there's a technically a better
tea than the opposition but with a serious doubt on the chances of winning the game
now I want to either disprove or prove that Napoli fit this definition if when I
analyze this game I see that Napoli were a decent team or a rather inconsistent in
form or alternatively both Napoli and Frankfurt were very much in form then I would
say that this definition was fairly accurate at describing Napoli and therefore the
odds we could say are fairly accurate and there wouldn't be a value bet here on the
other hand though if this game very different to what we're seeing in the reference
games then there's a potential that there's a value-bit opportunity in this game as
we have identified a game and found our reference games to help us we've now
concluded step one of the value betting strategy and we're now ready to move on to
step two which is the game analysis so what is game analysis game analysis is
analyzing the two teams that are playing and the critically important step here is
that we're analyzing this game to see how well it compers to the reference games
that we found during step one of the strategy so let's first examine Frankfurt
Frankfurt our team doing quite well in the Bundesliga they're currently sat in
sixth position generally the overall League form is a little bit up and down as
they have three wins in the last seven games 43 win ratio and when I first started
to look at this I was getting really excited because I sort of know a good napoya
and seeing this up and down form was making it even more likely that back in Napoli
was a value bet however upon further inspection there was a problem I could see
that frankfurt's home form was really quite strong with four wins in the last four
games which is probably the reason why the odds are priced way that they are
thinking back to our Premier League reference games that we obtained earlier after
an initial viewing of frankfurt's form I was thinking that this game was more
looking like the Man City versus Arsenal example for the type of game that being to
very evenly matched teams with a slight Edge to the away team rather than the the
other types of games that we're seeing you know the the Chelsea and the Spurs games
which were decent teams against Alessa team but the decent team were sort of out of
form it seemed to be more like the the Arsenal man city game two informed teams but
with the edge to the away team so now I have a better understanding of what the
reference game is I'm thinking that if when I analyze Napoli it turns out that
Napoli just appear a little bit better than Frankfurt in the same way that in my
opinion Man City are a little bit better than arsenal we could say that the
definition we created in step one of this strategy would
fit this reference game then it would be fair to say that the odds here would be
accurate and there wouldn't be a value position but I've been watching that boy a
few times this season I had a strong inclination that this wouldn't be the case so
let's take a look at that point they are not just top of the Seria they are
absolutely demolishing the league The Staggering record of 18 victories in their
last 19 games is something only the very elite teams in World football ever
achieved and it's no surprise why current projections have them as joint third
favorite to win the Champions League this season they are one of the best teams in
the world this season with two of the most dangerous and best players in the world
at the moment with Napoli looking as strong as they do I was thinking that there
must be something special about the recent victories that Frankfurt had been
picking up for Napoli to not be sure to an odds of 2.26 so I decided to take a
closer look at frankfurt's form and I noticed something very interesting when
looking deeper at frankfurt's strong home Farm it was actually much weaker than it
had initially looked in this recent four-game winning streak all four of the teams
were actually below Frankfurt in the league and three of the four shelka herfa and
toffenheim actually made up the bottom four teams of the Bundesliga so these were
all teams you would expect Frankfurt to beat even when we take a more General look
at the home Farm across the season we see that Frankfurt typically struggle against
teams above or around them in the league they lost to Wolfsburg who are of similar
quality but also lost to high quality teams like Bayern Munich and Borussia
Dortmund thinking back to our Premier League reference games my opinion was getting
stronger and stronger that this game that we're pulling on putting a bet on was
quite a bit different to the reference games that we had found the expected
difference in quarter between Napoli and Frankfurt based on the odds compared to
the actual difference in quality between the two teams which we have found during
our analysis is staggering in my opinion Arsenal vs Man City was a much closer
match up than Frankfurt versus Napoli we are close to moving on to step three of
the strategy which is finding new reference games which are more comparable to the
actual game that we're looking at rather than just looking for reference games
based off the odds which we can then use to calculate what the expected value of
the value bet is before we look at that though I did want to check the European
form of both of these teams this season because we are comparing two teams from
different leagues here and it is possible that one of these leads could be much
stronger than the other one so although Frankfurter sixth in the Bundesliga if we
was to assume that the Bundesliga was a much more difficult League than Syria being
sixth in the Bundesliga might actually be a much better accomplishment than it
initially seems so this possibility is something that I wanted to eliminate and I
did this by comparing the European form in the Champions League group stages
Frankfurt had a mixed bag they definitely looked like a lower quality team in
Tottenham though and at this moment Tottenham are a much worse team than Napoli in
my opinion this is another positive sign for the value bet Napoli had a much
stronger group campaign than Frankfurt did impressively winning five of the six
games it's going three or more goals in each of these victories too their only
defeat was at anfield which is one of the most difficult grounds to go to and it
was a dead rubber as Napoli had already won the group after performing step two of
this strategy the game analysis there is two possible conclusions that you can have
either the game you intend to bet on is consistent with the reference games you
identified in step one in that case we're assuming that the odds are fairly
efficient and fairly accurate and that there is no value-bet opportunity here and
it's a simple case of forgetting about this game and moving on to different
opportunities the other conclusion you can have following the game analysis is that
the two teams that you're intending to bet on in that game the difference in
quality between those two teams is significantly different than that of the two
teams in the reference game of similar odds and in this instance there's a very
strong case that a value bet is on the cards given all of the evidence that I'd
found during the game analysis the verdict in my opinion was pretty conclusive
Napoli were far more likely to win this game than the market was suggesting they
was and once we've come to that conclusion it's now time to move on to step three
of the strategy and that is trying to identify what the actuals should be so let's
think about the process that we forward so far we've collected data and essentially
calibrated our thinking to what a game should look like when the odds are the way
that they are we've then found a game which is a massive outlier from our Cal
operation so now we're here in the final step where we need to recalibrate our
thinking to determine what we think the true odds are we do this by finding a new
set of reference games for the Frankfurt and apple game I'm using in this video I
went back to check historic Premier League Gods on odds bottle to find new
reference games which matched what I believe to be the difference in quality
between Frankfurt and Napoli this is why it's very important that the league you're
using to find your reference games is the league that you were most familiar with
because it's the league where you know all the qualities and weaknesses of each of
the teams I can then use the odds of the away team in the reference games to
determine what the odds should be for Napoli in this game against Frankfurt my
criteria when looking for these new reference games was to try and initially find a
team that emulated Napoli's quality in the Premier League there's only really
Arsenal and man city that we're talking about here that matched the relative
quality of Napoli my job is to find games that are either Arsenal or Man City have
played when they played in opposition which is relatively speaking a similar
quality to Frankfurt so a team I'm looking for is a team that's in and around
trying to compete for the European places ideally I'd want them to be on a strong
run of Home form but also to be not the best when playing teams that are better
than them or of equal quality to them in the league I'm essentially trying to find
the teams that emulate frankfurt's qualities that we found in the game analysis
section because overall I want to emulate a Frankfurt versus napple game as best as
I possibly can from all the Premier League games that have ever happened the most
recent game I found which was reasonably close to what I was looking for was Man
United vs Man City to be honest United looked comparatively a little bit too strong
compared to Frankfurt but they were a team competing for the European places and
like Frankfurt a bean on a four-game winning streak United did however have a good
record against similar or better quality teams in the league which was unfortunate
because this is the opposite to what Frankfurt had who struggled against similar or
better quality teams on top of that man city had comparatively weaker form going
into this game the nap I have going into the game against Frankfurt if anything I
would say using this game as a reference point would show larger than expected odds
for the away team than what we should expect for Napoli in the game against
Frankfurt because man united appear to have a greater chance of beating man city
than Frankfurt had of beating Napoli despite that when we check the odds for the
man united and man city game we see that man city started a game odds of 1.91 a
significant difference when compared to odds of 2.26 that napoya to win at
Frankfurt and as I just mentioned if anything Napoli are more likely to win than
city were swords of 1.91 made in cells in fact be too big looking at one game alone
we can't possibly know if the odds in this game were efficient which is why we need
to find more reference games to pinpoint what the average odds should be for this
type of game after digging around and finding as many similar games to the Target
game as possible I found this series of games and he started to see a trend with
the odds a trend which was that in a game like Frankfurt versus Napoli a team like
Napoli should probably be prized odds of about 1.9 to 1.95 or quite possibly even
lower as we have found multiple games we could be in a position to say maybe not
all of the odds from these games were efficient this Chelsea man city game for
example deals were much shorter than the other games I found either I'm wrong in my
thinking to assume these games are similar or this game itself was mispriced and
city will label you for this game without investigating further it's difficult to
say which way it is but this is why it's so important to assess many games to piece
together what the average odds are so you don't get tricked by a game like this and
think that there is even more value on offer than there actually is for this value
bet after I'd follow the three-step value betting strategy which I've outlined
throughout this video of number one identifying a game and then finding the
reference games for that particular game number two analyzing the game and
comparing it to the reference games to see if there was any misbracings and number
three looking for new reference games to then assess what the true odds for the
games you'll be I was finally in a position where I was pretty much confirmed that
back in Napoli at 2.26 was in fact a value bet as the odds were probably should
have been closer to about 1.95 and not all the way
up at odds of 2.26 now we've identified what the true odds should be we have to
decide whether it's worth placing the bet or not if after getting this far we find
the bet it's only slightly positive in expected value it might not be worth placing
the BET after all so let's calculate what the expected value is for this bet if my
assumptions were correct it would mean that my 100 pound bet on Napoli to win to
return 126 pounds worth of profit would have an expected value of around 16 pounds
at this point I don't really mind if Napoli go on to win this game or not if my
analysis was correct and this was a value bet yes I might win always this bet here
but in the long term I will be profitable which is what my results have been
showing since I've been taking this strategy more seriously and because I have been
on on spartal so frequently researching the previous odds looking for reference
games I memorized the efficient odds from many different types of games which means
I can identify what I believe to be value bet much quicker when I'm browsing
through Betfair on a daily basis I can get the bets placed and because this isn't a
trading strategy I can leave these bets open and check my results at the end of the
day with the aim of being profitable not over a day not over a week maybe not even
over a month but in the long run ideally I want to be profitable if you're curious
to know how I calculated the expected value of this bet to be about 16 pounds make
sure to click the end screen of this video and you can find out how I did that and
that's coming up right after I thanked all these people who are supporting me on
patreon I very much appreciate it if you like to support me and get exclusive benef
fit such as trading videos useful calculators and much much more you can learn more
about it in the description below and although I was a bit critical about models
earlier in the video you can download the models that I've made and of course it's
just a model and like all models they aren't perfect but they can be used during
the game analysis step of the strategy to better identify when your target game
fits or doesn't fit the reference games that you've identified and as promised here
is the video I was referring to about calculating the expected value of a position
oh and by the way I forgot to mention that in the end Napoli did end up winning so
that was a nice 126 pound profit

yo what's up YouTube really excited to bring you this video because that means it's
football season or at least close to football season I'm going to be breaking down
how to bet on the NFL some strategies as well as some tips it's going to start out
a little bit beginner level but we'll ramp up as we get in to strategies that you
can use to make money betting on the NFL so my name is Alex last year I give out
all my plays for free by the way on Twitter or on YouTube live stream so you can go
back and verify all of this but last NFL season I made over $440,000 and I'm super
pumped for it I'm not going to lie I do think NBA is a more profitable sport to bet
on because there's a lot more games with NFL we only get games Monday Thursday and
then obviously a ton of games on Sunday regardless really excited so let's get into
it so my first tip it's not only relevant to the NFL literally every sport this is
the core of profitable sports betting is you need to be line shopping which just
means using multiple Sports books I've used literally over 50 depending on where
I'm living at the given time all of these books set their own prices they set their
own odds which is really unique if you think about it right like if you want to buy
a stock it doesn't matter if you buy that stock on Apple or Fidelity you get the
same price however in sports betting that's not the case it's a very inefficient
Market every book wants to be unique so they set their own odds so for example I
bet the Bears money line atus 210 every other sports book has this like- 250- 260
so I got really good value on my play so when you look at my NFL profit from last
year $440,000 if I was betting things at- 260 instead of- 210 all the value
evaporates that makes a huge difference in your Roi long term right like sports
betting it's not about winning one bet it's about winning long term and if you're
not finding value you're not getting the best possible odds you don't even stand a
chance right if you're betting things at- 260 when other books are offering - 210
you know you're getting ripped off right like imagine being a day trader buying a
stock at $260 as opposed to $210 you won't stand a chance at making money so line
shopping finding value that's really the core of profitable sports betting and you
just got to be doing it I mean if you're not doing it don't even gamble so my third
tip and sorry you're getting a bunch of different outfits in this video I recorded
this over a few days but regardless my third tip or my second tip whatever is take
advantage of the lwh hanging fruit which is Sportsbook promos all these books
they're commodity businesses they just take bets so to try to be unique to try to
draw on customers they run promos they run discounts and some of these discounts
are really lucrative so on prize pick this is even before the season started they
had three discounts NFL season long player props all of them were super profitable
so I took advantage of them right everyone loves to talk about who's winning this
week Chiefs or bears which side of the spread are you on but the easiest money
you're going to make in all these books run them is through promos on FanDuel
you'll see odds boosts profit boosts risk-free plays where if you lose you get your
money back and you should be taking advantage of them especially if you're a
smaller bankroll better these promos are super effective at helping you grow your
bankroll so now we can get into some strategies I follow a super data driven
approach to my sports betting so all of these strategies are very data driven and
the first one I love this strategy it's how I started sports betting and made my
first $40,000 is called Arbitrage Arbitrage sports betting so there's a ton of
resources online on reddit reddit threads YouTube videos to learn about Arbitrage
I've done videos on this topic but essentially all sports books set their own odds
so for example in the panther Saints week one game you can see that the over 37
points this is an alternate total Market isus 157 on Pinnacle on bet 365 it's - 210
so essentially Arbitrage betting is when two sports books get super out of sync
they have such different odds that you can bet the over on one book the under on
another book in guarantee a profit so I'll give you an example of an Arbitrage bet
that I locked in which was a player prop I gave this play out on Twitter a bunch of
people were able to tail it for a risk-free profit of $8 so in this case two sports
books that I used as an Arbitrage better you want to use as many books as possible
you're essentially just day trading the books inefficiencies in the market to
guarantee a profit and the numbers may not seem big but you do it multiple times so
for example this Arbitrage bet is making a risk-free profit of $8 it literally took
me only 20 seconds to lock this in and I give out tons of Arbitrage bets you know
on a daily basis on my Twitter so you can follow along if you want to make risk-
free money but anyways this discrepancy was between fliff and DraftKings they had
super different odds on Lamar Jackson scoring a touchdown so on DraftKings I bet
$175 that's essentially what they limited me to on Lamar Jackson to not score a
touchdown at minus 175 betting 175 to win 100 in profit and then on fliff a
different sports book you know all these books set their own odds I bet 9750 on
Lamar to score a touchdown at plus 200 so essentially regardless of what happens
regardless of what happens if he scores a touchdown or doesn't score a touchdown
I'm making a risk-free profit of approximately $8 that's Arbitrage betting day
trading the books inefficiencies in the market and sports books this may seem crazy
but there's millions of NFL lines up on Sports books every week right every Buck is
setting lines for player props main lines everything so on the rare few scenarios
where two sports books get super out of sync you can bet the over on one book under
on a different book and guarantee a profit it's an amazing strategy you got to put
in work these Arbitrage bets aren't going to place themselves but if you put in the
work to find these plays lock them in you can make a lot of money with Arbitrage so
I really think the best way to really learn and understand Arbitrage betting this
is what I did when I started Arbitrage betting I had my friend who was a really
good Arbitrage better he took me through a bunch of examples so again Arbitrage
it's a way to make risk-free money based on two sports books getting super out of
sync and having way different odds and this example I'm going to take you through
is on Lamar Jackson fliff has Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at plus 200 so
you're betting 100 to profit 200 on DraftKings his under him to not score a
touchdown was minus 175 so you have to bet 175 to win 100 in profit so these two
bucks are super out of sync and you can guarantee a win so the first thing I did is
these Sports books they set max betting limits you can't just bet whatever you want
I wish you could just bet whatever you want but that's not how it works so I saw on
DraftKings they're only going to let me bet 17567 on Lamar Jackson to not score a
touchdown so I put that into this calculator it's called an Arbitrage calculator
and basically what it does is you put in your stake on one book and it shows you
how much to bet on the other book in this case 9167 on fliff and you guarantee a
profit of 833 so what this means is if you bet 9167 on fliff on Lamar to score at
plus 200 you bet 175 on him not to score on DraftKings at minus 175 it doesn't
matter what happens if he scores or doesn't score you are going to make a risk-free
profit of 833 however I rounded my bet size on fliff I like to round my numbers I
think it's less sketchy you know to the sports books you want to round your numbers
ideally to the nearest hundred something like that but in this case I did 9750 on
fliff on Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at plus 200 so you're betting 9750 for
a total payout of 29250 so now I figure we can just kind of go through the math cuz
I have two different bets on as you can see right here I have 9750 on Lamar to
score a touchdown at plus 200 and 17567 on Lamar to not score a touchdown at minus
175 odds so I'm going to show you how I get guarantee a win no matter what so I'm
betting 27317 total and if Lamar does score a touchdown on fliff I'm going to win
9750 time 2 I'm betting 9750 at plus 200 odds I'm going to win 195 in profit and on
DraftKings I'm losing 17567 if Lamar scores a touchdown I win my bet on fliff and I
profit $195 I lose 17567 on DraftKings so I come come out with a net profit of 1933
so if Lamar scores a touchdown I win my bet on fliff I lose on DraftKings but I
profit overall 1933 now on the other hand if Lamar doesn't score I lose 9750 on
fliff Lamar doesn't score a touchdown I lose 9750 on fliff but on DraftKings I win
17567 times 100 over 175 i w $1.38 for a net profit of 28 88 so the reason it's not
exactly the $8 risk-free profit is because I rounded the Arbitrage calculator a bit
to try to get to the nearest Round number but regardless you get the point if he
scores or if he doesn't score I just took you through the math I'm making a profit
no matter what and that's the power of Arbitrage betting is these bets the this
specific Arbitrage play I log into fliff I log into DraftKings I place my bets I
guarantee a profit day trading the Sportsbook it takes like 20 30 seconds to lock
in your bets that's it now we're already up $8 on average risk-free move on to the
next Arbitrage play sometimes there's really good Arbitrage bets sometimes there's
not but my goal as a sports better is essentially lock in as many of these plays as
I can each one takes only you know 20 30 seconds to play we're making let's say $8
$10 risk-free on average hit 10 Arbitrage bets in 30 minutes on you know an NFL
Sunday where the average profit is $10 you just guaranteed yourself $100 profit
that's amazing right you're day trading the books to guarantee a profit you're
growing your bankroll and also now you have some money if you want to throw on some
of your parlays and stuff like that so the next datadriven strategy that I
absolutely love it's somewhat similar to Arbitrage betting but it's called middle
betting and I call middle bets the lowrisk lottery tickets of sports betting so
essentially all books set their own odds their own lines and especially in the NFL
and college football sometimes two books especially when they first release markets
they set lines at way different levels so for example you can see in this game this
was from last season the Minnesota quarterback his name's Athen his line on prize
picks they opened him up at 2012 passing yards and then on FanDuel they had his
line line at 1842 so you have this big discrepancy these books are 17 yard
different on a QB's passing yards line so what you'd want to do is BET The over 184
half on FanDuel the under 2011 half on prize picks you're paying the juice but in
the rare scenario the quarterback has 185 to 2011 yards then you win both bets you
win your over and you win your under so many people think of sports betting about
is the game going to go over or under but at the end of the day it depends where is
the line set right in this case we bet the over 184 half the under 2011 half we're
always going to win at least one bet but in the rare scenario and it's a fun sweat
that this guy Athen has exactly 185 to 201 passing yards we win both bets so this
is another strategy day trading the sports books it's called middle betting you'll
see tons of people online having success with it I love this strategy especially
for the NFL receiver props QB passing props there's a lot of opportunities with
midds definitely recommend it so as a recap so far we've gone through three
strategies to make money off the sports books all very data driven super profitable
taking advantage of promos like discounts odds boosts risk-free bets we've gone
through Arbitrage betting which is a way to guarantee a risk-free profit off the
sports books bet the over on one book the under on a different book and you
guarantee a profit and we've gone through middle betting which is when books are
out of sync and where they're setting a player's line bet the over 184 half on one
book The under 2011 half on another book so if you enjoy this type of content on
data driven sports betting please like the video subscribe to the channel and
comment any questions you have I love this I love beating the sports books I've
been betting for man I can't even remember the last day I haven't placed a bet for
years and years and years and I really love helping other people learn how to beat
the sports books but anyways the next strategy I probably spend most of my time on
this strategy nowadays is called positive EV betting and it's essentially risking
capital for an expected return so the way you can think about this is being a poker
player if you're the best poker player in the world and you show up to a cable you
know you're not going to win every single hand however you know because you're the
best player the most skilled player even though sometimes you're going to get delt
27 over the course of the long run you're going to make money so that's essentially
what positive EV betting is is you're finding discrepancies in the market and
taking advantage of them so I'll give you an example of a play that I locked in on
a sports book called fliff It's Williams under three and 1 half receptions this was
a play I gave out on Twitter so I bet on fliff Williams under three and 1 half
receptions at minus 105 odds again the odds are super important all of sports
betting is about finding value nobody wins every BET right placing a bet at minus
105 versus minus 150 is a completely different bet so let me take you through why I
like this play and why it's profitable so you can see on fliff they have Williams
his over is- 13 5 you have to bet 135 to win 100 in profit his under is minus 105
you have to bet 105 to win 100 so this sports book fliff they're the only book with
Williams favored to go over three and a half receptions they have his over favored
his overs Juiced so according to fliff they think that's the more likely outcome
however you look at every other sports book FanDuel DraftKings bet online Caesars
all these other books will Wills is a big favorite to go under three and 1 half
receptions so for example on fliff they have his over at plus 102 and is under at -
139 so the under is a pretty heavy favorite around- 139 and on this other sports
book fliff we're able to get minus 105 again all books set their own odds their own
lines that's why the markets are super inefficient fragmented and there's a lot of
opportunity to to make money so Caesars is telling us hey we think this should be
priced at - 139 odds on fliff we can get it at - 105 so the analogy I like to give
is it's kind of like being a stock Trader and having all these other you know stock
markets telling you hey we think this stock is worth $130 and then you can buy it
for $105 we have all these other sports books billion dooll companies these books
that are taking bets moving lines around based on where actions coming in they're
saying hey we think this is- 135 this is the favorite outcome the under we think
this is 135 we're able to bet it at - 105 on fliff it's like being able to buy a
stock at $105 when it's trading in the market at$ 135 so if you think of how a
Sportsbook makes money it's by charging a spread called the viig so for example on
Caesars they have the over at plus 102 the under atus 139 it's kind of like a stock
broker saying hey I'll buy this stock for one 2 I'll sell it for $139 they make
money by charging a spread so to figure out the true odds the fair odds you need to
remove the VG which is called using a no viig odds calculator so you're essentially
squeaking out removing the spread or the viig that a sports book is charging so if
you do that to Caesar's Market plus 102 minus 139 you'll see that the fair odds
with The Vig removed you squeak out the spread is approximately - 117 so it's kind
of like if a stock broker says I'll buy this stock at 9 I'll sell it at 11 you can
kind of back out the midpoint is 10 so that's what they actually think the stock is
worth that's called fair value so what you do in sports betting is you remove the
big from a sports books market and in this case on Caesars the fair odds would be
minus 117.5 for the under we're getting minus 105 on fliff which is a better price
so the true price according to Caesar's Market when you remove The Vig is - 117.5
we're able to get this at - 105 on flip so it's a profitable bet it's a positive EV
bet it's like if the true price of a stock was $117 and we were able to buy it at
$105 that would be a plus evb trade we're getting $ 12250 of value relative to the
market and again this specific bet may not win but if we're finding bets that are
plus evev value to the market long term we are going to make money sports betting
That's The Power of plus EV betting is all these Sports books Caesar's DraftKings
FanDuel they're multi-billion dollar companies they're experts in setting lines and
most importantly they have access to flow all of these Sports books are taking bets
they're moving their odds based on where action is coming in bets are coming in
from sharp customers their profitable customers which is why it's so important to
find Value between sports books if every book is is saying hey we think this should
be priced at -40 we're able to get it at - 105 that's a clear indication of value
and you need to be finding value as a sports better if you want to make money
longterm so the next strategy we can discuss it's super effective for the NFL in
betting on same game parlays when you're playing picks in the same game and it's
called correlation pting and it's very effective especially on fixed payout f
fantasy sites like prize picks and Underdog fantasy so the way that prize pick
works is they have fixed payouts any two picks you select you're going to get a 3X
payout so you're putting down 20 to win 60 so for example if I take Travis Kelce
over sequan over I'm going to get 20 to Wi 60 if I switch saquan to an under I'm
still getting 20 to 60 if I replace saquin with Jaylen Herz I'm still getting 20
to0 60 literally any two picks you select on the board doesn't matter if it's NFL
or not on prize picks you are going to get 20 to 160 so where this really starts to
matter is when you start pairing picks from the same game so for example for a
three pick entry you get a 5x payout if I take Kelsey over Mahomes over saquan over
I get 20 to 100 a 5x payout if I take Kelsey over Mahomes under saquin over I
replace one of the picks I'm still getting 20 to 100 but you're probably thinking
well that wouldn't make much sense why would you take Travis Kelce over and
receiving yards and Mahomes under and that's exactly the point right if momes has a
great game and throws for over 263 half passing then Travis Kel is going to be a
lot more likely to go over if Mahomes has a good game has a lot of passing yards
Travis Kelce is going to be much more likely to go over his receiving yards line so
taking momes over and Kelsey over those two plays are positively correlated it
doesn't make any sense whatsoever for the exact same payout to take momes over
Kelsey under as opposed to Mahomes over Kelsey over or you know Kelsey over Mahomes
under you obviously want to pair QB overs with wide receiver overs for players on
the same team you can think about it like Travis Kel's line is 2712 that's over 25%
that's almost 30% of mahomes's passing yards line so if Mahomes goes over Kelsey's
a lot more
likely to go over so this is called correlation betting it's really effective on
prize picks prize picks sometimes depending on the type of slip what you're trying
to pair you'll occasionally see them add in payout shifts so you need to be a
little Shifty but regardless correlation is a super effective strategy especially
in football to make money on these fix payout DFS sites like prize picks regardless
I hope you enjoyed this video I know it was a little long but we discussed a ton of
profitable betting strategies taking advantage of the loow hanging fruit promos we
explained Arbitrage and middle betting which are two very lowrisk betting
strategies very data driven we explained positive EV betting as well as correlation
betting and I really really hope this video makes you more money going into NFL
season please comment any questions like And subscribe uh to the channel like the
video and email me anytime if you have questions about sharp profitable sports
betting I live for this I love this thank you so much for your time

if you just randomly clicked on this video you are either one of two people a sharp
a person who already understands the game of expected value or a random person
bored as [ __ ] enticed by the title and thumbnail if this is your first time
hearing the word expected value you just struck gold my guy this time we interview
the owner of an insurance company and his side passion is plus e betting Tommy
School tells us that he was able to pocket 20K in 20 minutes a day this year his
method sounds almost silly to how easy and time efficient it is but he has the data
to back him up today he teaches his method links in the bio what is up guys and
welcome back to the podcast series we are consistent with these yes today we
actually have another special guest that his name is Tommy school with a German u
in the last name because he actually is an odm user for those that already in odm
you know this is going to be very nutritious podcast because he's going to show a
method that when he showed it to me it was so simple and his results are so good to
that process that I was just like okay this needs to be shown um and for those that
have no idea what any of this is and you just randomly stumbled ac across this
video from the corners of YouTube whether you already know about sports betting or
don't or maybe are looking or you are a sports better and you are losing like crazy
because you don't understand the whole world of Eevee betting well this would be a
very great introduction and a very great strategy to start off off the rip to be
very profitable so what's up Tommy how are you man I'm doing great thanks for
having me one I really appreciate you inviting me to yeah yeah you talked before
yeah we had a little talk a couple days ago because you had posted on your Twitter
that uh you're were doing like coaching calls and like I was just like what I've
never seen this so I saw your cly and then I was just like what does this guy know
because I saw his results that you posted and you were like 20K in 20 minutes and I
was like that's a big statement what do you mean 20K in 20 minutes so yeah what
does that mean what what do you mean by 20K in 20 minutes yeah so I've been an OD
sham user for almost two years now and I was an EB and flow guy and uh was spending
a lot of time trying to figure everything out and a jam has a lot of different
options out there through the r betting the the low hold the high midd positive EV
and I was trying to do it all and it was too much to be honest with you so I
started to simplify my process back in March and once I did that I literally
allocated 20 minutes a day to get as many of those positive EV EV bets in that meet
my parameters and in that time frame I've seen over $20,000 in profit since March
the 1 that is amazing yeah um that's actually something that is very very very
interesting because there's this for those that are looking for that definition of
truly side hustle 20 minutes a day I think a lot of people have to be make to be
able to profit 20K already in like what is it six months since March March or so so
that is good um yeah I guess before we get into like the nits and such of the
strategy how did you even like get across like profitable EV sports betting how was
that how was that was were you like gambling before like uh it's um recreationally
how was that cuz and I know this goes into your background of um account um so like
you know numbers and all that stuff explain a little bit about that to you yeah so
very much a numbers based person and uh I had been Sports wagering for a very long
time even before it was legalized and uh have it in the blood to say the least so
um when it became legal in Colorado I went and opened up my different sports books
accounts utiliz in their deposit matches and all the specials that they were
running and uh burn through it I mean it was brutal so I started to follow
different people and I started to gather information from different websites trying
to B make my best educated guest and I had created a spreadsh sheet that had um
eight different qualifiers and I would put information in those and it would pop
out a red or green box and it was green I would bet it if it was yellow maybe and
reds were definitely not just eliminate and it would take me hours to compile that
information um so then I was like I want an easier way so I went and I purchase
picks from a sports better who was a pro and I bought his picks for a month which
was right around $1,000 and uh at the end of that I bet every single one of the
picks that he had recommended and I actually came out on the negative side so not
only did I lose on the subscription side but then I also law sports betting side
and uh I was looking for a new way and uh I found I started reading about positive
EV started doing some research and then came across odds jam and it has totally
changed how I watch sports it changed how I invest in sports now it's no longer a
bet to me it's more of a investment and a great term that you used once was
utilizing the weighted coin and I wanted to find a way to weight that coin even
more in my favor and uh that's when I developed and fine-tuned this system in March
and like I said I've been using it almost two years had been profitable but not
like the results I'm seeing now it's not even close yeah because I'll pull these up
you know see share screen yeah I'll pull it up just to quickly like go over that
it's like over 3,000 bets um and it's you're looking at uh 10% Roi which is wild
which is very wild that's crazy wild for straight bets that's wild straight bets
that's absolutely correct so it is a go here and B tracker and Thomas school oh we
had a great day yesterday I didn't even know that um here we go yeah look at this
is funny because uh this I started using your uh like like this was I think the
15th and I was like I'm going to try this so it's three days in the green so far
with your strategy so like that's my side um so that looks good here you are 5K
this month man how is an extra 5K coming in 20 minutes a day so like it's pretty
crazy yeah so um let let me just start with is that um do you want to share I can
share my screen yeah and just to go go you take take over so what I did is I wanted
to simplify the process and really make it in a situation can you see all right
yeah um so what I wanted to do is I wanted to simplify the process of how quickly
you could make a bet so within my filters I utilize the sports books that are
available in state that I'm using my minimum maximum odds is minus 220 on the
minimum side maximum of 100 100 and then my market width is between 10 and 50 so
that's the original filters that I use um with odds jam and then what I do is I
want to continue to waight that coin in my favor so what I look at is I look at the
best line available so in this situation it's Luca I'm gonna take this one off
because as soon as it shows red I don't even look at it anymore um so it's
everything from lines over unders player props every sport if it fits the
parameters I'm betting it like I never thought I would bet tennis I never thought I
would bet soccer um European basketball no matter what Korean baseball it doesn't
matter I'll bet it if it's the it's crazy because this also worked in baseball
season which is like if it can surpass baseball you'll be good yes it works really
nice so what I look for and this one doesn't show it either so we're gonna click
right through these if they don't fit or qualify and I'm G to show you ones that
actually fit within the the system so um what I look for is beyond the numbers here
is I'm looking for a 20 cent difference so like this is an excellent bet and I love
this one to be honest with you so plus4 for Baker Mayfield under that passing
completions there's a 39 Cent difference and why this is important is I'm going to
show you on my sheet here so plus 104 you have to win 50% and 47.8% um so 47.8
that's a plus 109 50% if you're at plus 100 but they're giving it to me in this
plus 130 range which means to break even to bet at that level I have to win between
56 and 58% so what I'm getting is I'm getting a six% or even more so percent um at
the plus 104 odds so not only am I getting the positive EV which is already
expected from that play but then I'm over qualifying it and this is where I say
this is where I'm super conservative and you don't see my abs and flows as much
because I look for that 20 cent difference so going back to it here I'm buying it
at plus 104 and not at 135 so two things come to play here so if I'm betting to win
$100 I don't even have to bet a 100 to win a 100 here and over here I'd have to bet
$135 so if I lose this bet I only lose right around 98 bucks in this case versus
135 in this so that's one way I limit my losses and when I win I win the exact same
amount so I do a system that is a bet to win BTW is what I call it it's not by the
way it's bet to win So within certain ranges I bet to win 2550 75 or $100 and I
never go above that range because once I started to really work the books over I
started to get limited and when that happened I had to choose a different route and
uh create another account under my wife's name don't tell her anybody um so that I
didn't get flagged by books and get limited any and by doing that yeah this this
right here um I'm so sorry to interrupt but I want to make a parenthesis of it what
you're about to say is that that is so key because you are still getting volume
down on B MGM bet Rivers like all these books are like limit so fast by doing this
system which is very interesting because this is like L longevity in the accounts
if you can start again um you know wink wink right um and like really push really
maximize like so the softness of MGM and B rivers and it still works on fan rules
like all the books you have like DraftKings um but that's something
really interesting to note because you know that that shows a lot because there's
some some some for some reason the way you're calculating your staking size and way
you're winning you're not really getting flagged um so yeah I just want to
interrupt there which is I think what you're going to say yeah and and that's the
key because if you could still run the volume on this you won't see those results
that I was showing you before and so when you look at this my average winning and
all I did is I took the difference between the so 99 bet difference and I divide it
by my winnings which puts it right at 52 $50 42 um so that's not something that's
gonna scare those books away right so they're only seeing you win on an average
around $50 it's when you start to hammer them when they start paying attention to
your account and that's what you don't want to do is get caught up with that so
overall when I say 20 minutes a day to 20,000 I've been doing this since March the
1 and I've won $2,997 185 and the big question I get asked all the time is well
what was your starting bank roll all I did was I maximized whatever deposit match
was out there so some of them like FanDuel you could deposit 5,000 to get a th000
then you got to play through it so on and so forth but because I was winning I
played through the deposit matches I withdrew my original deposits and now I'm just
playing on the house money 100% that's what I was able to do yeah amazing so let's
go go to your your bed tracker and filter it from March 1st on odm so you can look
at like the the specific numbers let's get the dashboard here all right so overall
that's what this one here is is since the I started this with OD Jam this is my all
time as you can see that I'm flashing here I'm up at $ 33,8 2016 with a profit
margin of 5.34% however when I changed my system and stuck to it I mean I stick to
it 100% of the time I don't waver from it like if it's at 19 points or less um just
because I may like the game and that type of thing and that's where I told people
like I don't have a vested interest in the game besides buying the stock market
that's what I'm doing I'm putting my chips in and I'm letting them work $25,000 of
that total amount that you saw that 33 is from March the 1st and a 9.15 uh profit
margin which is what you would love to see any day and twice on Sunday if that's a
good way of seeing it yeah yeah and you can see there that it's bmgm and B Rivers
is like the majority of the profit over there where it says profit by sports book
on the right so bgm Rivers FanDuel typico is a big one here in Colorado in Colorado
we are a uh uh are very fortunate to have access to a lot of books and if you look
at some of these other ones that don't have as much profit in them these are some
that are already have reclassified me as a u by limited me so like points bet and
that type of stuff but overall and bet ESPN just went live in Colorado so it's
going to take it some time to really show the true profits of it that type of stuff
yeah if you were never on bar stool then and it will be brand new for you if it's
ESPN bet because that's basically bar tool got bought by ESPN exactly right and uh
when it switched over it uh didn't take my previous winnings over um showing that
so like barol doesn't show what I was doing before it just shows what I've done
with ESPN in the last like three or four days or whatever I think that's pretty
that's sweet man so let's let's up so the rules exactly for those listening if you
want to um I don't know maybe open up like a spread like just a blank spreadsheet
real quick um and just kind of like show like the uh the odds Rangers because you
know from here to here you deposit you you play this to win this okay depending on
so to to guess give it a yeah so um in essence what you're doing is Pinnacle and
you want to be 20 cents at the very least off of Pinnacle to consider the best you
know that kind that's kind of like your EV in a way threshold which if I'm if
you're deving I'm curious as to what will be which is like I think over like two or
3% if you're looking at like 20 cents off of Pinnacle um on gen generally um so if
you're looking at that 20 cents it's about 4% from the number that you're buying it
at versus the number that pinnacle's listing at so if we go back into the sheet
here so at plus 100 between 47 and 50% and that one bet at let's just say at 20
cents it's now 56 to 54% so it's about 4% of the BG that I'm put adding to the
positive VZ side of things okay okay so if I flip the coin a 100 times I'm going to
win 4% more times than I lose and that's where the profit margin comes out so and
sometimes it's even more than that so I was that plus 104 actually came in at 130
to at 135 so it's giving me another 2% which is phenomenal let's go back into this
one here all right so yeah back into that make it bigger so see all right so the
Pinnacle odds so the odd it's not betting at the odds that we're getting um getting
it's betting at what the odds that Pinnacle is going to issue so if the numbers I
show you here is what it's showing on Pinnacle and then you would bet it at the
odds that you're getting okay so if that makes sense or doesn't so 100 to yep minus
119 that's bet to win $25 okay minus one what I think you 199 minus 199 there you
go sorry 190 okay and then it's then I have to put these in parentheses because I
don't keep it from formulating from minus 120 to minus 139 I'm betting to win $50
minus 140 to minus 149 sorry I'm trying to type faster than should be and then the
last one is anything that's minus 150 or higher I'm betting to win 100 okay how'
you come up with these numbers exactly so you like you exported your entire bed
history then sift it to your data look at your variance and then determine this cuz
you have a background in accounting so you run you know you run you know how to run
excels and formulas and such or how that so what I was looking for is when I got
into the higher ranges here because you're giving up so much juice to bet at that
level I wanted to make sure that it was profitable um in the long run for it so uh
at 150 and above when you bet to win 100 so those would be Pinnacle l so if I have
a line that's minus 135 that I'm getting the line at but yet it's saying that it
should be at minus 155 through Pinnacle I'm only betting 135 could win 100 when I
should have be betting 155 win 100 based off of the odds there so I'm betting it at
the best line to win $100 if those Pinnacle numbers match like you see here so if
Pinnacle at minus 120 I'd be betting to win 150 at the best line okay yeah so and
that's all based off of the win percentages that I'm seeing is anything that's
minus 130 and above that I'm betting I'm winning at a very high rate I'm winning at
a really high rate over 60% which is you know great to see and all my win
percentages are around two to three% over the maximum Break Even point and that's
if I was only betting at that highest like- 129 - 139 that would be the highest
level here of the break even and that's what I put as my parameter over here um but
I'm profitable in every single one of these except for this 190 Mark um I'm down
below that win percentage but it's coming back it's you know the law of large I
just got to keep that yeah it's still in a way like those odd ranges are like you
know know even though like your overall is two you know 2,600 oh wait 4,500 bets
which is you know decent sample size for the individual odd ranges is still like
small but you know obviously these the whole system makes sense as a whole correct
yes so they will tell you if you bet at a uh on average just to break even you want
to be at 52.3% that's the bare minimum Break Even range so that falls within the
you know minus 110 range this 52.3 that's where most lines sit at is in in that
area so to be over that and you take the averages of a mall you want to be around
53 54% I'm at 58% utilizing this system so almost six out of every 10 bats I'm win
that's amazing that's so yeah like it's really really interesting to see this um
how does how do the number numbers um so if we go to your bet tracker again just
kind of like go over like just month to month like March April May just curious all
right so so me let's go sweat station that's a better way of seeing it all right so
let's go back to March so $6,200 in March overall um was the profit and then you go
into March April 2000 this is when you start to see all the other major sports
start to end and only baseball take over $1,700 there in May June 900s that in June
July just baseball is tough as you know not a lot of options out there still
profitable though August Y and then football starts and then football starts and
you start to see it pick up look no more gaps no more days or it doesn't meet and
again if it doesn't meet the criteria it's just one of those days and again I was
just trying to do it 20 minutes a day to see if you know not have it take away from
life and everything else and could suit my entire day or hours like it used to I
wanted to be able to get in there and quick hit it and then October great month in
October um love that NFL college football NBA NHL men's college basketball starting
a couple weeks ago it really opens up tons and tons of opportunities for these bets
and that type of stuff so yeah that that's where we're sitting at so far today
we've settled seven bets we're up 36 bucks and then you could U see that we got 14
live and we got another what we got upcoming another 30 upcoming so yeah that's it
man that's that's how I like to roll within the system and attack the sports books
that's that's amazing man I mean I think the most like the key away the key here
it's the just the 20 minutes a day which is you know what I was uh what a lot of
people are because I I you know do is part time a lot of people will do is
part time I'm slowly wouldn't be doing this more full-time um as it's growing but
I'm growing a you know the channel parallel to this and that's a whole different
world um and I think that this is like I don't know if the word is silly but it
sounds silly in a way because it sounds so simple right because you're not even
deving in a sense you you're just using that 20 cent difference to kind of like you
know separate you from that true to make sure you're obviously in the positive um
even though it's already going to be a positive EV bet according to obdam but
that's sick because yeah my favorite part of it is that it's favorite odds so like
you know you're 50% and over on the on your hit rate um on the true yeah on the
probabilities and yeah man this is just you know kiss keep it simple for the stupid
simple stupid right keep it simple for stupid that's what my dad used to say when
he was in the uh the military he was always say you got to kiss him just keep it
simple for stupid so I tried the other side of this where it was betting the higher
odds that type of stuff and the win percentages just did not match up where I could
uh really justify continuing to put that amount of money in to try to make it be
profitable for me and that's when I realized that that's where my Peaks and valys
were coming from is because I bet so many of The Underdogs and I wasn't cashing in
on them well enough that I went away from the dogs to the favorites and then in
March I started to use that 20 cent difference and it just it changed it it changed
the game for me and yes it's boring it's super conservative and it's so numbers
driven that you just point and click and and roll out a bunch of bets and you know
coming into the screen here where I'm looking at these positive expected values is
that I just roll through these as quick as I possibly can to see how many I could
get in that time frame and so starting here 105 to 105 that's no good it's out I
just hide it I get it off my my list here that's a BET right I would bet that I
can't bet on the screen but I would bet that I would come to this next one 43 to 85
huge one so there's a $100 bet right here sitting on this uh Pier L lais uh shots
under two and a half that's a $100 bet that I would learn to make I'd put that in
and I do everything based off of their search bars I don't go and click into the
league and then go find the team and then I just I literally type in that dude's
name it's going to pull it up I click on the game I find the shots and I place it
and that's that's the other thing is the quicker you are the more you're going to
be able to get in that time frame and usually within 20 minutes all these that are
listed here I will have cleared off of this board I'll be through every single one
of those in 20 minutes and then that's that's it it's done and then there's always
Deadtime right like if you're on the toilet you know pull your phone out pull up
the odds Jam app look at the odds if it matches go into your app play some bets
instead of playing a game um my kids play hockey my daughter plays softball and
volleyball I have to have them there an hour early easy to sit there when I'm
usually doing nothing anyway find some more bets you know four or five there
because the law of large numbers is the key here just like insurance and just like
dealing in blackjack for the casin casos the more hands they could get you to play
the more the odds are in their favor and they're going to win over the Long Haul
well now the odds are in your favor and you saw from my bet tracker over the long
period of time I have a lot more green days than I do red days and my red days are
less than my green days because the big is always in my favor so I don't take as
big of losses when I do hit my wins yeah so it's Insurance not I thought I don't
know why I thought accounting but you do account like you do all the numbers in
your insurance right company yep yeah implied probabilities all that fun stuff and
that's all that's all it is then up in the corner here I have an automatic
refresher and uh I just let it refresh every what is it every three minutes four
minutes um to pull up new lines then I just hit it again so like here's a great one
how many people were thinking about betting inaccurate word versus Arkansas Pine
Bluff today at the under 163 well you never would even look at those games on a
normal information gathering unless you were pulling in numbers from so many
different books and that's where odd Jam is the Catalyst the foundation for this is
it does all the work for me and then I fine-tuned it down and then I all I gotta do
is go and find bets like this perfect well that's amazing man um so you wouldn't
how long do you think you're going to be doing this for as long as you can uh yeah
I mean even if they end up limiting me there's still ways to increase my volume if
I want to add time to it to still make it profitable um and that's something I was
doing with B Rivers before I switched into the other account is V rivers in
Colorado really struggles on uh its lines and it's it's typically off pretty good
like this one here again that's that one we were looking at before so that's uh
yeah from plus 104 to minus 135 that's that's a beautiful one so B Rivers often is
an outlier like that so even if it's a limiting me to a 10 or 12 bet I'll still
take 50 bets on BET on BET rivers and cash in at uh 50% of those and you know end
up making a couple hundred bucks I'll take it it doesn't take me any more or less
time yeah and you're using Pinnacles as sharp for everything because some people
some data sources say DraftKings is you know sharper on player props and Pinnacles
you know best on Main lines Etc you're just like you know what Pinnacle off
everything and clearly with over 4,000 beds it shows that it still works with off
of Pinnacle right yeah everything's off of Pinnacle because a lot of times um
DraftKings or or the other books they are uh they don't even offer it and uh
Pinnacle will because them being the the best and the sharpest sports book out
there they'll have lines out there that others will not and plus you just get into
the habit of finding that locating that number and then just go to the next one
because all these seem to change but Pinnacle stays at the end for whatever maybe
it's just the alphabetical side of it yeah man well I think you know that's clear
it's as clear as day the way you explained it um anything you want to say to those
that just watch this and have absolutely no idea what we just said uh yeah as uh as
you found me I offer free coaching session so I just sit down with guys and walk
them through the process if they've never been with odds Jam they're offering us
out with all new subscribers a 7-Day free trial um we can get them hooked up with
that take them through the coaching session have them work through it with me um
multiple times if they want to but I guarantee after two or three times they'll
have it down um I've helped several other people jump into the system and see
immediate success and uh I offer that free coaching call which is a zoom call share
your my screen and walk you through it and answer any questions that you have and
in an hour you'll have a very good clear sense of what it looks like to be able to
become yeah and see the same results I've seen yeah which is basically what you
just saw in this call correct yes it's literally this um yeah I guess you know
that's you know more than enough for this um I guess just kind of like finalize
this call with a little bit more of like a personal thing um yeah like what do you
your par you know your kids wife think of this well they know you're a numbers guy
already so they know that whatever you do with numbers you know what you're doing
but any like weird like looks from other family members like wait you're doing this
with sports betting what yeah it's the whole stigma that that sports betting is uh
behind the scenes and you know folded up envelopes and that type of stuff they
don't realize how it's changed so awesome um since it's been legalized in all these
different states and everything else and what I would say to somebody as well is
that this is non sports gambling can be addictive all right and most of it is is
because of the adrenaline rush that you get and the serotonin rushes and all those
type of things as you're chasing bets and you hear the advertisements all the time
don't chase your losses well this takes all the emotion out of it because it's so
numbers based and because you're doing such a high volume you're going to not
really pay attention to every single game that you bet because it's just not
possible so because you're not chasing it and because you're not having the ups and
downs of where the adrenaline and and serotonin are pumped into your body where
you're constantly searching for that and it's a business-like approach that's how I
have taken this to the masses and and talked to family members about it to erase
that stigma that gambling's a bad thing I say it's not gambling anymore I'm just
playing a numbers Market against somebody who thinks that they're um better at it
and through the years because of the recreational better and the in ill informed
they've been able to win time and time again well now the big and the odds are in
my favor and I just got to put the numbers I just got to put the volume out to
offset you know flip that weighted coin as you say I see you got that from that
little film yeah I did I thought that was a great saying and I've been stealing it
ever since so kudos to you well sweet man that's what it's all about sharing that
um yeah it's all about flipping that weighted coin keep flipping it and then you
found the easiest and most efficient way of just finding the weighted coin in like
a matter of seconds you don't have to go deig anything
you don't have to go look at your Kelly criteria any of that which is still good
and it still works but this just saves you like so much time that over the long run
like instead of assessing every bet individually in such a like uh I don't know
mathematical and most accurate manner you know you're beating it with just a volume
and just kind of like your data that shows that you know do it like this and it
works and you know thanks for that thanks for sharing that AB absolutely yeah I
appreciate you reaching out to me and sitting down before and then scheduling this
and us getting together I think uh we can really help out a lot of people make some
extra income and know go on a cruise or some something fun that they want this
could definitely offset some cost 100% man well thank you guys for listening if
you're all the way up on Hill till the end I'm going to leave Tommy's socials and
whatnot in the description if you want to connect with him and you know go follow
him he has a YouTube channel I think you just started one or you you've been
posting content there you know I'll link that too and I'll see you guys on the next
episode peace out

what's up guys welcome to another video this feels really weird because I haven't
recorded anything in about 5 months I stopped making videos in March because I
started focusing live betting the NBA March April and May and it was amazing I
traveled to Arizona and nwork with a bunch of Sharps I learned so much about sports
betting and now in the summer I decided to take it off I don't like betting
baseball I moved back to Colombia set up this beautiful Studio but I want to talk
talk about something really important which is called variance and the variance is
something that you're going to go through whether in your favor or against you good
luck bad luck good wins good wins winning streaks losing streaks and we're going to
go over a calculator we're going to see it in action we're going to see it in real
time and hopefully for all of the new Sharps starting their Sports sping Journey
well hopefully this will clear up a couple things and help you understand variants
uh in a more detailed way disclaimer I am not a data scientist I am not a data
engineer I don't work with data at all I your producer musician that is mostly what
I love doing film making all that stuff so this is going to be very very basic and
if I in any way I mess up or there's something wrong with any of this I I had my
friend elf who is an actuary helped me with this XL so formula should be pretty
good but without further Ado let's Dive Right In holy crap that was a long ass
intro what the heck is variance variance is something very simple it's basically
the deviation from the true average the winning streaks and losing streaks in the
world of probability that's all it is and in order for the law of large numbers to
work you're going to have to go through many repetitions to get to that true
average right let's look for a random bet let's say this tennis game over here uh
Bona ventur versus Rebecca Marino Okay so so we're going to simulate this bet
hundreds of times if we were able to make this in hundreds of parallel universes to
see per 100 bets so we're going to be doing 20 different simulations in this
calculator I'm going to leave a link down in the description all you got to do is
Click file make a copy and the calculator is all yours and all you're going to do
is adjust the values in this B column so we're going to do some examples together
so odds gem says that the noig fair odds should be closer to 14722 right which
means that there's a 40.5% chance for this bet to hit so if we are getting odds of
plus 160 we're getting better odds a better payout than 14722 which is where we get
this 5% of expected value 5.17 so let's input these numbers right 14722 so the no
big Fair odds 14722 we're going to be doing 100 coin flips at a time in this uh
coin flip simulator I will also leave a link down in the description uh we're going
to be doing units of let's say $100 let's say your unit is $100 let's say you have
a $110,000 bankroll $100 would be about one unit so let's just round that off and
put at 100 bucks but you can put any any you can simulate any amount that you wish
and then the odds that we are getting right is plus 160 so we're going to be
putting 160 in there right so once we open the coin FIP simulator we have to
actually put what the probability of heads is so every single time we hit heads
we're going to win the bet and every single time we hit Tails we're going to lose
the bet so let's go ahead and inut 100 coin flips so let's reset this and we're
going to be doing 100 coin flips and the probability of getting heads should be
about 40. 45% right so let's just round it off to 40. 40% chance right all right so
let's run our first simulation let's toss so here we actually ended up with heads
42 heads and 58 Tails so let's input how many Tails we got which was 42 so in this
first simulation we actually got 9.20% Roi why because we hit had 42% of the time
because we needed at least 38% to break even and we hit it 42 so in this 100 flip
simulation we hit a 9.20% Roi which is we made 920 bucks so let's run another
simulation so let's hit reset reset the uh the simulator and hit toss so in this
simulation 31 Point 31 times we didit heads so here we actually got negative
variance and we actually ended up losing $2,000 we ended up losing about 20 units
so that is a perfect example of why we require thousands and thousands of bets to
get to that true average and these 100 flips we actually lost so a beginning Sports
better might encounter this and they might say oh I hit 100 bets and I lost money
this doesn't work no you're actually still within the range of what is expected so
let's run another simulation so let's reset and toss and we just broke even so 41
heads 41 times we HD heads and we actually made money we made $660 here so .6% Roi
and we're doing the exact same bet under the exact same probability and you can see
all of the different results that you can expect let's do it once again and I'm
going to fast forward through this now 43 head so let's put that in here another
example of positive variance once again hit the reset button and toss it here we
got heads 40 times so heads 4 40 we made profit once again so perfect here we are
closer to the true average let's hit reset and run another 100 coin flip simulation
so we got heads 35 times so let's put that in here and here we actually got we lost
in these 100 flips so minus 9% lost $900 okay let's do another simulation reset and
toss 35 so again same exact result negative variance one more simulation so here we
got extreme positive variance at the very end we hit heads 48% of the time so this
is going to be an insane number yeah as you can see in this simulation we made 2.4k
with $100 units and we had a 24.8% Roi extreme positive variance so we can kind of
see this as eight different people right let's say eight different people hitting
this exact same bet at the exact same odds with the exact same no big Fair odds and
somebody might experience oh I made point 2.4k I am the best sports better this
works incredibly I'm going to continue and person number two doing the exact same
thing could have lost 1.9k right so now we see variant in action right and this
will kind of show you is to not get discouraged when you're going through negative
variants because you are within what is expected you still need to make thousands
and thousands of beds to see the actual return to see the actual expected value so
I'm going to just zoom through these next uh 12 simulations and we're going to be
looking at the final Roi here and the total profit that we actually made so let's
go ahead and do it [Music] and our final simulation our final trial let's see what
we get here 38 let's go so now we have 2,000 different outcomes and our final Roi
is 2.3% and we actually made 4.6k with $100 units so key Point here and I'm going
to repeat this once again 100 flips or 100 bets is not enough to really squeeze out
that EV it is not enough you need to get into the thousands of bets so you can
actually make sense of this and it is also possible for you to be person number two
and person number six and person number seven back to back and you could have 300
different weight and you can have 300 different coin flips and you're actually down
300 different bets or you're actually down a lot but you can also be this person
where 1 2 3 4 400 flips in a row you make money right 300 bets in a row you lose
money and this will vary depending on the odds the win probability but this is
something that I wish I would have understood in this simple way I'm pretty sure
there's ways of explaining this were more complex ways with graphs and all of that
stuff but this is kind of like a very basic way of understanding variance don't get
discouraged when you're losing and don't get overhyped when you're winning because
you're just experiencing variant whether in your favor or against you so hopefully
you understood something if there's if I did anything wrong here please let me know
down in the comments if this helped you understand this then let me know as well
and we're going to be having more videos coming up so subscribe leave a comment and
if this is your first time coming across EV betting make sure to use the link down
here sign up for oddam uh you'll get a free 7-Day trial and use code sharp 35 for
35% off for the rest of your life so if you watched all the way till the end
there's going to be more content coming soon I'm going to give a little bit of
Studio Tour a little bit of my surroundings I am on top of a mountain and the view
here is absolutely incredible I'll probably leave some drone shots in the beginning
or here at the end so you can see where I'm at and I will see you guys in the next
video peace out

yo what's up guys my name is Alex I graduated from Stanford in math and computer
science and I've made over 400 000 betting on sports since 2018 when regulated
sports betting came to the us we talk a lot about sports betting so what I thought
would be kind of fun in this video is to actually go through and place some bets
based on you know mathematics and make some money um so we've discussed why sports
betting is so interesting right is all of these books have different odds right so
here we can see if we refresh we're just on odd jam on the positive EV page so
Pinnacle Sportsbook is the sharpest bookmaker in the world and we see in the Mets
Nationals game tonight they're only giving you plus 315 odds right DraftKings is
giving you over 12.5 runs plus 375 odds so bet a hundred profit 375. so Pinnacle we
can see plus 315 minus 422 we can pull up that at no vague Fair odds calculator
we've discussed in other videos so plus 315 minus 422 according to the sharpest
bookmaker in the world Pinnacle Sportsbook over 12.5 runs in this game should be
roughly um roughly plus 335 odds with a win percentage of 22.96 percent so if I go
back to the plus EV page we we're getting 375 on DraftKings so the profit margin of
this bet is 9.07 percent that's the expected profit margin of betting on over 12.5
runs on DraftKings we can also see MGM has under 12.5 minus 385 so that's getting
pretty close to an ARB to DraftKings so there's clearly some value in this over
12.5 runs plus 375. so that will be the first bet we'll make so let's just get into
DraftKings real quickly let's go okay MLB MLB so you got to be quick we've talked
about this right Sports is a financial Market these odds are always moving so if
you see a good bet you want to try to get there quickly so we can see over 12.5
runs plus 375. of course it's not verifying my location very common on sportsbooks
um but let's pull it up and let's place a bet on it let's get some mathematical
Edge locked in and then let's go on to the next bet so over 12.5 runs there was
pretty good EV on that so I'm gonna bet a thousand dollars so it's gonna review it
because I'm limited uh so I'm betting a thousand at plus 375 odds it's reviewing it
we'll see if they take it or not and we can start to put it in here over 12.5 runs
Mets game right we can start to put it in here and just kind of so we can track all
our bets so we put a thousand dollars on it the EV percentage from odd Jam so our
expected return is 9.07 percent Pinnacle the sharpest bookmaker in the world is
only giving you plus 315 we're getting plus 375 there's some incredible value there
so 9.07 so 0.0907 so our mathematical profit margin is just our EV percentage times
our wager so we should be earning 91 dollars in profit over the long run of course
not every bet is going to win even this bet we saw from the no vague odds
calculator right this bet plus 315 minus 422 according to Pinnacle the sharpest
bookmaker in the world only has roughly a 22.96 percent chance of winning but we
are getting insane value with plus 375 odds so let's see if DraftKings took it okay
DraftKings tuck it we can see right here bet placed over 12.5 runs plus 375 odds
betting a thousand to win 475 so that's pretty cool now again on oddsjam why this
is so powerful is if we just look at DraftKings you can see how much stuff they
have on their site like look at these markets this is just run lines right you
can't find good bets manually these odds are always changing around odds are always
moving around from book to Buck so if when these line discrepancies and amazing
value spots like this over 12.5 runs plus 375 win things like this exist they're
not going to last forever right so having software that helps you identify these
good betting opportunity opportunities is extremely helpful so we place this bet so
that's great and we can kind of check out the next one right so there are a couple
things that I like to consider when placing bets so you can set up your settings
here the first thing you can do is set a maximum odds that you're willing to bet so
I have mine set to plus 400 you can also turn on and off player props so we can see
if I turn on player props and then I hit refresh again it'll show me some home runs
so here we see Mitch Garver to hit a home run is plus 380 on FanDuel Pinnacle right
that's like massive EV it's a direct ARB to Pinnacle which is the sharpest
bookmaker in the world so there's clearly some value on the plus 380. so if I go to
the Twins game we can find this quickly the Twins game player to hit a home run
Mitch Garver plus 380 right I can try to put 500 on it but I'm limited so it's
going to give me 26.30 it says 26.30 so I'll Place 2630 and that can just be our
second bet tracked Mitch Garver home run so the our wager size was 26.30 great
thanks thanks FanDuel you're the best um and what we can see is the EV of this was
0.3853 that is an incredible line of course they don't let you bet anything on it
if you make money off them but you can kind of see here that we're getting 10 13
and expected profit from just that small bet so I've placed two bets my
mathematical profit margin according to Pinnacle Sportsbook the sharpest bookmaker
in the world is 101 bucks and you know again you can kind of customize your
settings around you can you know lower this you can increase this it depends how
long of odds you're willing to bet you can turn player props on or off alternate
markets on or off whatever you want to do so let's go back to the positive EV page
and we can kind of see other value spots I will say when you're searching through
looking for good value betting opportunities you want to consider how wide the
market is right so for example up here there's clearly value on this plus 375 but
Pinnacle is plus 313 over 12.5 minus 418 under 12.5 like that market is pretty wide
right whereas if you go down a bit here we can find some other examples here we see
Minnesota plus 14.5 Pinnacles minus 139 on it so there's clearly some value on this
minus 113 Minnesota plus 14.5 it's a direct ARB to Pinnacle right Pinnacle is Ohio
State minus 14.5 plus 114. this is a direct ARB so this Market is tighter so what a
lot of our users do on odd Jam is they'll look for these tighter markets because
they think that's a better indication of the bets they want to place Central
Michigan plus 14.5 is a direct ARB to Pinnacle the sharpest buckmaker in the world
so maybe that's a good betting opportunity and you can obviously click on these you
know you can click to kind of see what other markets are giving you so we saw
Minnesota plus 14.5 it's minus 126 on bookmaker minus 130 or minus 139 on Pinnacle
so there's clearly some value on this minus 113. um so that's just something to
consider when you're using the oddsjam plus EV page is definitely consider how wide
the markets are um this odd sham column essentially we weight the Pinnacle odds
with the bookmaker odds Pinnacle and bookmaker are the two sharpest Sports books in
the world so knowing their odds and always knowing where their odds are is
essential if you're a sports better if you want to make money sports betting
mathematically you always have to beat Pinnacles odds and bookmakers odds that's
how you make money in the long run if you are getting better odds in your line
chopping ruthlessly and comparing odds out a lot of books and always beating
Pinnacle then you're gonna be a successful Sports better so we can kind of go down
you can look for other things other good betting opportunities so we'll place a few
more bats Minnesota plus 14.5 this was minus 113 odds so that's on September 2nd so
I can go here I can go to Minnesota and what I wanted to bet was Plus um plus 14.5
minus 113 so I'll try to place 500 bucks on it and it's giving me of course 34.68
but this is what it's like to be limited on U.S Sports books if you start making
money I'm trying to place a 500 bet not even that much money and they're giving me
34.68 and telling me the other 465.32 needs to go in for approval so I'll place
that and of course a technical error occurs classic um let's see if it even lets me
so it's not even letting me bet it right now I'll try refreshing the page maybe
that will help but you can kind of see that you know these Sports books if you
start making money off them they're gonna limit you um so we'll wait for this to
pull back up and then we can try to place the BET again and see if it works so
Minnesota plus 14.5 place bet there we go it let me Place 3468 so let's see so
let's try to bet it again and let's see if they take my money I'll try to place
five hundred dollars place bet send entire wager for approval so now it's awaiting
approval so now we have to wait um this is how sportsbooks get you if you're
limited is they'll have you send your bet for approval they determine if they want
the action or they don't want the action and my guess here is they won't want the
action and they'll reject the bet so but we got 34.68 on it down so we can put this
in here 34.68 how exciting and then we can go back to the plus EV page and we can
see that that bet had a 4.52 percent profit margin so 0.0452 in our mathematical
profit margin is this and this is Minnesota on nine two plus fourteen point five
minus 113 odds and again I encourage everybody if you're using oddsjam make sure
that you are tracking your bets you want to track your closing line value which has
been discussed in other videos if you're not aware what closing line value is I
highly recommend that you learn about closing line value um and because it's the
most important indication of whether you're going to make money or not sports
betting it also lets you track your winnings and losses right like after 500 bets
if you've lost money sports betting something has to change you should know after
500 bets or not your exact profit margin your mathematical
Edge over the Bucks how much money you made and be able to determine you know if
you're making money then you should start betting more if you're not making money
you shouldn't be betting as much right so here's another good one that's
interesting right we see on FanDuel Rockies and again constantly refresh this page
because odds are always moving around Sports is a financial market right you have
to move quickly to get in on the good betting opportunities we see Rocky's minus
1.5 is plus 390 odds on FanDuel it's an ARB to MGM MGM is Dodgers plus 1.5 minus
385 odds so it's an ARB to MGM and it's 8.32 EV right Pinnacles only giving you
plus 331 you're getting way better you're getting plus 390 odds so if we click on
this game we can actually just kind of see where is it Rockies minus 1.5 plus 300
is all about MGM is giving you plus 300 is what DraftKings is giving you plus 331
on Pinnacle you're getting plus 390 on FanDuel that's clearly some good value it's
a mathematically profitable bet so what we can do is just go here we can go to
FanDuel and again I'm limited because I made a lot of money off them but we can go
to the Rockies game where are you here and we can go to you got to go down a bit
it's under alternate run lines again knowing how to navigate these books quickly
will make you a lot of money and this is giving me 42.3 bucks so I'll place it 42.3
bucks okay thank you 42.3 bucks Rockies minus 1.5 plus 390. I always track my bets
I track them ruthlessly I want to know if I made money or not every single night
because tracking your bets ruthlessly is the way you determine if you are a
mathematically profitable Sports better and if you are making money in the long run
you should be tracking your clv the odd Jam that tracker it's 100 free you should
be tracking your bets ruthlessly and you should be tracking your profit and loss
over the course of the long run so anyways the EV on this was 8.32 so 0.0832 our
mathematical profit margin we can bring that down so we're at 106. I just made 352
in profit um we've talked about this in other videos right like sports betting it's
not about making a million dollars in a night that's not going to happen this isn't
a get rich quick thing it's about small bets even if you're limited it's about
rocking up these small bets that take a minute to place of 352 in Edge right in
profit margin and watching those returns compound and compound and compound that's
how you get rich in sports betting you make five good bets a night you make 10 good
bets a night you make even two good bets a night if they're good enough you are
going to make a lot of money betting on sports we're already at 106 dollars in
profit margin tonight right like and again we haven't this hasn't even taken that
long and the plays are always changing so it's something you should you should
check pretty constantly um so again like FanDuel unlimited so if I tried to bet
this again they're gonna tell me oh Max wager zero dollars thanks Vandal so you're
not going to be able to bet that much on these but what we can see is did fit
unibet hasn't even told me if it's taking this other wager or not oh they did take
it heck yeah they took it 500 Minnesota plus 14.5 they took that's great okay so we
can add 500 here which will increase my profit margin and we're currently sitting
at 129 dollars a profit so that feels pretty good right hit the refresh button we
can see if any new plays came up and this is essentially what you should be doing
right you should be line shopping ruthlessly you should be comparing odds at books
the two sharpest Sports books in the world are Pinnacle and bookmaker you always
need to be beating their odds so let's go back a bit um where was that one we just
bet so this minus 13 for example it's a direct ARB to pinnacle pinnacle has
Minnesota plus 14.5 minus 139 odds the sharpest bookmaker in the world we're
getting -113 odds right that feels pretty incredible in bookmaker has it minus 126
odds right and again we're getting minus 113 so there's clearly some value in
Minnesota plus 14.5 pretty pretty great um so we can go down let's see if there's
any more we want to do central Michigan I bet this earlier actually Central
Michigan plus 15 but we can try to re-bet it um because right like it's a direct
ARB to Pinnacle it's 5.47 EV Pinnacle has this minus 153 there's clearly some value
on the minus 120 and we see that is bookmaker on here yeah bookmaker it stops at
plus 13 minus 121 like and we're getting what like plus 15 it's just an incredible
value bet so we can go to unibet and go to ncaf and when was that game we can try
searching it again you want to be quick so we have Central Michigan plus 14.5 minus
117. we can see how much money they give us so I'll try placing the rest of my
limited balance so place 35.89 and send 4 14 11 for approval so we'll do that let's
see if they take it or not and we can add it to the BET tracker so Central Michigan
plus 14.5 go back here go to the plus EV page Central Michigan plus 14 uh 0.5 and
that had 5.303 EV so 0.0503 and extend this and then we just need to see if they
accept the rest of the wager which is being referred again when you're limited a
lot of these books they want to take a look at every single wager you place to
determine if they even want the action or not which is it can be pretty frustrating
so they took it though so they gave me a total of 450 bucks on that so that feels
pretty good so we can put that in here and that's 23 dollars in EV so we're
currently sitting at 151 right it takes money to make money in sports betting you
have to place bets first of all and second of all you have to track your bets you
need to track your closing line value and you need to track your profit and loss
ruthlessly so this Rocky's minus 1.5 again we liked it because it's a direct ARB to
MGM which has Dodgers plus 1.5 minus 385 in huge value to Pinnacle no book even
Pinnacle was on was giving you plus 330 no other book was even giving you plus 300
odds on it right here's another good one maybe we want to bet Rangers minus 1.5 um
again the markets that are really tight um those ones people like more just because
you have more confidence right like here we can see this is this minus 125 on MGM
total total outs of Dallas cut trailer or whatever his name is is a direct ARB to
Pinnacle the sharpest bookmaker in the world so there's clearly some you know good
value there if you want to bet it um so again you can just kind of go through look
for good betting opportunities ultimately Place those bets and see your money kind
of rack up rack up rack up so here we now see a Dodger's hedge if we do want to
hedge the Dodgers right a little bit so maybe we'll place this they have Dodgers
minus three runs is plus 175 odds on DraftKings Pinnacle is only giving you plus
153 which means your expected profit margin to the midpoint of Pinnacle is 4.32
right so that feels pretty good and it kind of helps us hedge out of our Rockies
bet so what we'll be hoping for is the Dodgers win big or you know the Rockies win
by two or more runs so we could place like 500 on that as a hedge if we wanted to
so maybe we do that Dodgers minus three plus 175 and you can kind of go in and you
can see what other books what other odds they're giving you so we know DraftKings
is giving us plus 175 so there's clearly some value there right Fox BET's only
giving you plus 150 um Pinnacle is only giving you plus 153 Sugarhouse plus 160. so
like there's clearly some value on Dodgers minus three plus plus 175 so maybe we'll
place a little bet on that and this is ultimately how you bet on Sports these
opportunities are always going to be changing odds are not static they're always
moving you have to move quickly to get in on the best betting opportunities and you
know you have to be willing to accept some risk but again the whole point of odd
Jam is these Sports books have so many odds on their site so many odds on their
site you need a way to see in in a way like the odd Jam Plus EV page the best
betting opportunities and then you can go through and determine which ones you want
to bet which ones you feel comfortable betting and we just show you the best
possible ballads right we show you the odds where you are getting substantially
better value than bookmaker and Pinnacle the sharpest two sports books in the world
um so here's another example we see tomorrow the Indians are plus 140 on DraftKings
bookmaker only has them plus 125. so I kind of like that one too right we can see
Bovada is giving you plus 135 maybe plus 140 doesn't feel as great but you can kind
of go through and you know users just kind of sit on this you hit the refresh
button you look for good plays that are arbs to Pinnacle arbs to bookmaker where
you're just getting such great value that you can't pass it up you track your
profit margin you track your expected value profit margin and your wager size and
you kind of see you know as time goes on as you place more and more bets you'll
start to hit your total expected profit margin so tonight off the bets I placed I'm
expecting 151 dollars in expected value in expected profit and that's really how
you should be thinking about your sports betting it's getting value odds to these
sharp bookmakers such as you know Pinnacle sportsbooks such as bookmaker sports
book placing bets and knowing On Any Given night you may not win you may not lose
but over the course of the long run if you're generating positive closing line
value if you're tracking your bets you're going to see your pro your profit start
to stack up here's another interesting one right like the Steelers are plus 270
against the bills Pinnacle is only giving you plus 242. maybe there's some value
there so I mean you could sit on the site all day and kind of rack up your expected
value and your expected profit margin but this is really
what should be the home page for your sports betting this is where you should be
starting you should never be placing a bet at worst odds than Pinnacle and
bookmaker Sportsbook you never should be because you're not going to be making
money sports betting if you're betting you know on odds worse than the two sharpest
Sports books in the world are giving you Pinnacle and bookmaker so you should be
using the oddsjam plus EV page really to kind of just go through and sort for
opportunities that you think are good betting spots um there will obviously be a
ton for NFL for college football for everything like that track your that's
ruthlessly track your profit margin and see your profit margin kind of start to
stack up yeah so we placed a few plays maybe we'll Place one more if we can find
something interesting and yeah let's place this Dodgers one if it lets me in okay
Dodgers minus three plus 175 that was the play so we can go here alternate run line
again you're never going to be able to search through all this data just manually
right if you have multiple Sports books your line shopping ruthlessly you're
looking for good plays all these odds are constantly moving around Sports is a
financial Market DraftKings right they're firing a bunch of algorithms updating
their lines at every second it's just not going to happen so we can go to Dodgers
minus three plus 175 let's see if it gives me 500 bucks on it done I don't love
batting the Dodgers even though because I am a Dodgers fan I'm a big Dodgers fan
but it is what it is we'll place this bet and they take it so what was the Eevee on
that one this will be the last one we'll track 500 4.32 percent 500 4.32 percent
Dodgers minus three so we bet five hundred dollars 0.0432 percent I believe was it
and go back to oddsgam make sure we got those numbers exactly correct yep 4.32
percent okay so we can see that's kind of how you bat mathematically look for tight
markets look for arbs to Pinnacle and buckmaker the two sharpest Sports books in
the world on your sports books it doesn't matter if you're betting on us regulated
Sports books like DraftKings FanDuel or offshore Sports books if you're in
California and you're betting on Bovada whatever it is you should be getting value
odds to Pinnacle to bookmaker and that's how you really see your profit margin in
sports betting start to stack up of course on any given day you may lose but track
your bets track your closing line value have multiple accounts so you can line shop
and look for these discrepancies and when you are betting discrepancies like the
one seen here that have positive expected value you have to win in the long run
it's just statistics it's just the law of large numbers you are going to win in the
long run if you are placing bets like these ones so I hope you enjoyed this video
this is kind of how I think about my sports betting a again I'm the co-founder of
oddstam and um yeah this is how I always thought about my sports betting personally
and it's really fun it's really fun to have money bet on Sports and it's even more
fun when you're making money off it um so this is kind of how you find
mathematically optimal bets and how you should be thinking about your sports
betting hit the refresh page on the oddsjam plus EV page constantly be searching
for opportunities track your bets track your expected profit margin and you'll
notice that in the long run you're going to see your profit margin really start
just like statistics a coin if you're flipping coins maybe there can be two losses
in a row but over the course of the long run that coin has to land fifty percent
heads 50 Tails it's the same thing here you are going to reach your total expected
profit margin if you are doing this consistently in sports betting um so that was
this video again you will eventually get limited by some accounts as you can see
with my FanDuel but you can still find good plays like this plus 390 and you know
get some value get some expected value and still make some plays it's just most
likely your size isn't going to be as big as it was before so again that's a little
bit of sports betting a little bit of a sports betting intro if you have questions
you can feel free to contact us and I hope you enjoyed it

hey what's up YouTube Alex here and in this video really excited about it I'm kind
of going to break down my betting process right like how do I find my bets so this
year I'm up over $235,000 at the time of recording this video right before
Thanksgiving I'm recording it and you can see I've placed over 7500 bets this year
so I use a ton of different sports books I'm a big believer in this and I mean I'm
not even a big believer this is a fact if you're a sports better you want to use as
many books as possible all of these Sports books they set their own lines right the
sports betting Market is so fragmented so inefficient you have hundreds of books
that have launched in the US they may not all be legal in your state but regardless
you probably have 10 20 Sports books and fantasy books like prize picks available
in your state all these books are a little different so long story short I'm kind
of going to break down the different betting strategies I use and how I use each
tool on odds Jam to make money right there's some higher risk betting strategies
some lower risk betting strategies there's different types of sports books there's
traditional Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings there's also fantasy sites
like prize picks dabble Underdog fantasy which have fixed payouts so the betting
strategy changes a bit when you're using these fixed payout fantasy books like
prize picks but regardless in this video it's going to be a little bit longer of a
video so I apologize in advance I'm basically going to show you how I use each tool
on odds Jam to get these results because all of my bets again are found with data I
don't just wake up and bet random things with my gut right I follow very datadriven
strategies proven betting strategies that Sharps that Pro Sports betters Ed to make
money like Arbitrage like middle betting like positive EV so the purpose of this
video is really just to run through how I use ODS Jam to get these results so the
first thing I wanted to mention aside from using multiple Sports books is there's
no perfect number of bets to place per day right you want to place as many bets as
possible if your plays have an edge right you want to get as many bets in as
possible like I see a lot of people who ask me how many bets should I place per day
for mods Jam 5 10 15 like what's the right number and obviously it kind of depends
what time of the year are we in right now right before Thanksgiving you have NFL
college football college basketball NBA there's so many sports going on so there's
a lot of profitable betting opportunities it may be different in June when there's
only baseball going on and sometimes the board's a little bit more dry there's just
not as many Bets with an edge based on the time of year right sports betting
there's obviously you know good times to be really profitable sports betting times
like right now when every major sport basically is going on and then there's slower
times like June and July but you want to place as many bets as possible and I know
that sounds a little weird but it's completely true right if I'm the best poker
player in the world I don't just show up at the table play one hand and then leave
right if I have an edge if I'm the best poker player I want to play as many hands
as possible I know sometimes I'll get dealt crappy cards like 27 and I'll lose
money but if I'm the best poker player the smartest one I understand the strategy
best I know long term I'm going to make money right I know I have the edge and I am
going to win long term so it's kind of the same thing in sports betting you want to
place as many bets that are actually profitable that have an edge as possible so
you know a kind of related example is I started my career as a quantitative Trader
so basically when I was a Trader you know a lot of the trades were automated just
coming in and going but as a Quant Trader like your algorithms you're you're
trading hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands depends on the day hundreds of
thousands of Trades every single day right so it really is a volume game nobody's
going to win every bet it's about placing a bunch of Bets with an edge and then
letting the math work itself out if you have an advantage if you have an edge
you're going to make money long term so that's another plug for using a bet tracker
so this bet tracker I use right here where you can see my yearly profit is $236,000
is called picket so picket is a verified bet tracker you know what it does is you
sync your sports books it reads in your bets from every sports book from all the
sports books and shows you your profit and loss so and they give you a bunch of
analytics like profit by sport profit by League profit by team even like there's a
bunch of different analytics but obviously as a Sports better if you think you have
an edge it's really important to track your bets nobody's going to win every single
day most people aren't going to win every single day maybe if you're Arbitrage
betting which we'll get to but most people you're going to have winning days you're
going to have losing days and if you're using a bunch of sports books it's really
important to track your results so picket is a great bet tracker highly recommend
using it cuz like when I started sports betting I was very uncomfortable with the
idea of losing money so I bet very small amounts but but I tracked my results over
the course of months and months I saw I had a positive Roi so that's when I started
to increase my unit size seeing hey over the past four or five months I had a
positive Roi that gave me the confidence that I needed to increase my unit size um
as a sports better but without further Ado let's get into the first odds Jam
betting tool that I use all the time I love it it's called the odds Jam Arbitrage
tool so let's get into it so the first betting strategy stry that I love I think
every single Sports better should be doing it it's actually how I started gambling
how I made my first $40,000 profit sports betting it's called Arbitrage so
basically when I started to take my sports betting more seriously I was living in
Pennsylvania I had a full-time job as a Trader and sports betting legalized in the
US in 2018 so a bunch of sports book started to launch in Pennsylvania and
basically I spent a ton of time researching what are lower risk betting strategies
right what are proven ways right I didn't want any BS oh buy this guy's picks buy
this guy's picks I don't fall for that I wanted proven datadriven strategies that
actually make money and I wanted to understand them so the first strategy that I
fell in love with and it was basically the only way that I was gambling for the
first few months when I started taking my sports betting seriously it's called
Arbitrage so essentially AR arrage is when two sports books have such different
odds that you can Hedge for a profit right you're basically day trading the sports
books discrepancies in the sports betting Market when two books have such different
odds you can bet equal and opposite outcomes maybe the over on DraftKings the under
on B MGM and guarantee a risk-free profit so the reason that Arbitrage betting is
possible is every sports book sets their own own odds right all these Sports books
want to be unique there's hundreds of books that have launched in the United States
since sports betting legalized in 2018 FanDuel DraftKings B MGM fliff I mean
there's literally hundreds of books bet 365 points bet Resorts World bet b bet unib
bet you know there's so many books that have launched so basically you know all
these books are trying to set their own odds the market is super fragmented super
inefficient for that reason and when two books have such different odds you can
hedge and guarantee a risk-free profit that's Arbitrage betting and you'll see tons
of people talking about Arbitrage betting on social media obviously what appealed
to me about Arbitrage betting at first is I was just leaving College starting to
take my sports betting more seriously is it's risk-free profits right you can't
lose money assuming you're doing it right every single day you're going to make
money assuming again big assumption assuming you're doing it correctly all you're
doing is you're hedging two bets you're pinning Sports books against each other and
hedging for a risk-free profit so you'll see tons of people on social media giving
out Arbitrage bets breaking them down but I figured I'd take you through really
briefly how I find my Arbitrage bets why this tool is so amazing and essentially
how to Arbitrage bet like how do you do this so here you can see the odds Jam
Arbitrage tool and it's super easy to use I mean there are you know so many sports
books available in each state so here you can see I just have New York sports book
selected but long story short as an Arbitrage better right you're always placing
two betch two bets you're hedging to guarantee a risk-free profit so you're betting
the over on one book the under on another book so you're always placing two bets
you're hedging for a guaranteed profit because two sports books have vastly
different odds from one another so I always recommend use as many books as possible
like when I started Arbitrage betting in Pennsylvania there were dozens of books
available in Pennsylvania so I signed up for you know DraftKings B MGM Caesars B
Park sugar housee B Rivers the more books you have the more Arbitrage plays right
you never know which book is going to have the best Arbitrage plays on a given day
so I always recommend use as many books as possible but anyways you can see there's
some Arbitrage bets obviously depending on the time of day there will be more or
less in my opinion the best sport for Arbitrage betting is the NBA and the best
time to find Arbitrage bets is right before the game start there's a lot of lineup
news right whenever
there's a lineup news who's playing who's not playing who's on a minute
restriction you'll get a lot of line movement and because all these Sports books
set their own odds they all have to adjust lines so sometimes you can get these
hedging opportunities these Arbitrage plays where you can guarantee a rest free
profit but anyways long story short let's go through this Arbitrage bet between
Betfair and Circa you may not use either of these Sports books but regardless the
point is to kind of explain how we can bet his over and his under to guarantee a
profit so you can see Betfair has saquan to score at minus 145 cira which is a
sports book in Colorado Vegas I don't know a couple other states they're super
different they have him to score at minus 180 so these two bucks are super
different right it's crazy I mean how fragmented inefficient the sports betting
Market is this is like if you could buy a stock at 145 on Fidelity and on E Trade
it's Min it's $180 it's a huge price discrepancy they're 35 cents different so
basically because these two books are so out of sync we can hedge and guarantee a
profit bet the over on the BET Fair exchange the under on Circa and we're going to
make a risk-free profit so all you have to do is pull up this hedge calculator it's
also called an Arbitrage calculator and put in your stake on one book so for
example let's say on Circa I have a few thousand in my account and I'm like okay I
want to bet $500 on his under obviously if you bet it for 50 in this case if you
bet it for 50 you'll make $2 risk-free profit I mean it's free money for clicking a
few buttons sitting at home nothing better than that but let's say I put in 500
what this calculator is going to tell me is hey you want to hedge and you want to
bet on his over $754 59 and you'll make a risk-free profit of $241 so bet the under
on Circa for 500 bet the over on BET fair for $ 75459 what I usually recommend
doing is round your bet size right you don't have to follow the calculator exactly
I mean you don't want to sketch out these Sports books you're just hedging for a
risk-free profit but just round this to like $755 and you're going to make 2041
roughly risk-free there will be slight differences because you rounded the
calculator but we can kind of go through the math right and I could also put in a
stake here and then it's going to tell me the stake on this other sports book this
is a hedge calculator an Arbitrage calculator but let's just say we bet this right
so there's only two options with Arbitrage betting you're always going to win one
bet you're going to lose one bet if saquan scores I lose my bet on Circa on is
under I win my bet on BET fair so we're always going to win one bet lose one bet
but because we're hedged and these two bucks were so out of sync and we were hedged
in the proper proportions we're going to guarantee a risk-free profit that's
Arbitrage betting so let's say saquin scores right if he scores I'm losing the $500
I bet on is under at plus 155 so I'm down $500 on Circa but on BET fair I go up I
don't know if you can see the formula um but it says 755 time 100 over 145 right
I'm betting $755 at minus 145 odds minus 145 just means betting 145 to win 100 in
profit so if I bet 755 you can go through the math you know you can see the formula
in here I'm going to make 52069 so I lose on Circa I win on BET Fair my net profit
Prof is 2069 again slight differences from the 2041 because I rounded the
calculator and bet a little bit more on the BET Fair exchange and saquan scored so
if saquan scores I go up 2069 now let's say saquan doesn't score in this case I
rounded this to 755 so on BET fair I lose 755 bucks on Circa I go up 500 time 1.55
I'm betting $500 at plus 155 odds plus1 15 means betting 100 to win 155 in profit
so on Circa I'm going to profit $775 so I make $20 risk-free right so basically you
never know when the best Arbitrage bets are going to occur you can see odds Jam has
a tab for live betting sometimes live and game betting I mean these Sports books
can barely manage their odds pre-match so sometimes there's really good live
betting opportunities but again what I typically do is I just recommend place as
many Arbitrage bets as you can when I started Arbitrage betting I tried to make
$100 risk-free before I went to bed so you can see here you just kind of click the
refresh button and it will show you new plays here's one between rebet and FanDuel
long story short the more bucks you're using the better at the time of recording
this video basically every game had started so there's just not a ton of Arbitrage
bets but again pull up the calculator let's say on rebet which is a sports book
that's available basically everywhere again as an Arbitrage better ideally use as
many Bucks as possible more books more Arbitrage plays so let's say on rebet I'm
like okay I want to bet 250 calculator tells me hedge on FanDuel 93307 maybe round
that to 935 and I'll make $24 risk-free so you just head over to the sports books
try to place your bets as quickly as possible before the line moves these are
Market inefficiencies the best Arbitrage bets aren't going to last forever so what
I recommend doing is again you'll get more comfortable navigating these sport books
but try to head over to FanDuel head over to rebet get your bets ready then lock
them in at the same time you're fully hedged you'll make a risk-free profit of 2443
so just follow the calculator round your bet size and try to move as quickly as
possible um odds Jam has oneclick bet which I think you can see right here so go to
this bet on DraftKings which will take you directly to the sports book so it's a
lot quicker to lock in your Arbitrage bets but that's basically Arbitrage betting I
mean it's super simple I recommend check this page you know have it up in the
background that's what I do and I just refresh it let's say every 20 30 minutes as
the market moves around players get injured weather changes lineups are released
for the upcoming day there's always new Arbitrage bets occurring so I try you know
especially when I was starting with just Arbitrage betting I try to make $100 risk
free before I go to bed like this game is tonight this is the power of sport
betting you may be like oh you know this is kind of lame I have to bet a total of
$1,100 and I'm only making $24 risk-free but you're not looking at it the right way
right essentially the way you want to think about this is if you bet this you're
$24 richer by the end of the night right like this game is tonight Raptors vers
Cavs this game actually starts in 7 minutes so by the time the game ends in 3 hours
I'm 2443 richer oh win one of these bets or lose one of these bets but regardless
of what happens I'm going to make 24 bucks 43 I'm 2443 richer so lock in this
Arbitrage bet then maybe if you use any of these other sports books lock in another
one it's a volume game let's say every Arbitrage bet makes you $10 in profit try to
lock in 10 a night you're making $100 risk-free that's money that's building your
sports betting bankroll for other sharp profitable strategies so the next strategy
that I love and kind of once I started Arbitrage betting once I got comfortable
with that I started to look into middle betting I did a ton of research on middle
betting and this is another sharp betting strategy that you know Pros use it's a
datadriven proven strategy and it's all possible because all sports books set their
own lines and the market is super fragmented so I think the easiest way to explain
middle betting is just by going through an example so you can see right here on DJ
fsu's quarterback there was a 17 yard discrepancy in where his line was being set
FanDuel had his line at 192 half fliff which is you know a sports book that's legal
in basically every state they had his line at 209 half so these two books were
super out of sync again it's crazy it's like a stock being 19250 on Fidelity and
then 20 20950 or whatever on eade it's crazy financial markets like the stock
market are super liquid and efficient so you can't do stuff like this but in sports
betting the Market's super fragmented hundreds of bucks have launched in the US so
there's tons of middle betting opportunities available and you'll see a lot of
people talking about middle betting on social media but basically what you want to
do is buy low sell high so I bet the over 192 half on FanDuel the under 209 half on
fliff again one of these bets is always going to win I'm either going to win my
over or I'm going to win my under however there's a 17 yard Gap if DJ has 193 to
209 passing yards I'm going to win both bets I'm going to win my over 192 half on
FanDuel as well as my under 209 half on fliff and again a lot of people think about
sports betting are you taking this gu over or are you taking his under but how
sharp betters think how datadriven Sports betters think is it matters where's the
the line set so essentially what you do is you pay the juice and if dju has 193 to
209 passing yards if he falls between there you're going to win both bets which
actually happened so I won both bets dju had between 193 and 209 passing yards in
actually two of his first four games of the season so these midds hit more often
than you think right like dju he's not going to have five passing yards he's not
going to have a th000 passing yards so the distribution is kind of like a normal
distribution around where the player's line is set those yards are very impactful
so I found this play on the odds Jam middle betting tool which I'll show you in a
second but NBA college basketball NFL college football these are great sports for
Middle betting and you know you can you can find a lot of opportunity they're also
a fun Sweat Right I call middle bets the lowrisk lottery tickets of sports betting
right like you don't have a lot of risk you're always
going to win you're over um or you're under however it's a fun sweat because
you're hoping for dju to have a very narrow you know you're you're hoping for a
very narrow outcome to happen in which case you'll win both bets so odds Jam has a
tool for Middle betting just like the Arbitrage tool you know it's fully
customizable you can select all the sports books you use date range stuff like that
you can also add in minimum distance so for example I just showed you a middle bet
um where FanDuel had a GU line at 192 half fliff was at 209 half so that's a 17
yard Gap so if I put in 15 here I'd only see plays that were different by 15 or
more points just like the middle bet I saw if I had minimum distance of 20 I
wouldn't have seen the middle bet that I locked in but regardless you don't need to
add a minimum distance but I figured that was worth noting again the more books you
use the better you never know which sports books are going to be super out of sync
on a given day and have the best middle bets there's often times really good live
middles so you can select pre-match or live a lot of times during a game there will
be some huge discrepancies these books there's hundreds of books in the US they can
barely set their their lines pre-match so live betting can be extremely lucrative
um I recommend checking if you're trying to live bet Arbitrage or middle betting
check games at halftime timeout breaks um because if you're trying to Arbitrage bet
during the middle of a possession like these lines are flying around but anyways
let's kind of go through this so middle bets can be positive right a positive Roi
regardless of what happens a positive percent or a negative percent so for example
you can see right here saquan Barkley receiving yards this is ne. 46% so basically
what this means is if I place this middle bet so this is just a hedge calculator in
AR arrage calculator it's the same calculator as the Arbitrage tool but essentially
what this is telling me is hey if I want to bet this middle and I want to put $500
on FanDuel it tells me to hedge for $ 45892 on Caesars again I recommend rounding
your bet size but basically what this tells me is hey you're going to lose $4 37 if
your middle doesn't hit so you're paying the juice so basically if saquan has
exactly 14 receiving yards you're going to win both of these bets and make like
$1,000 profit if saquan has exactly 14 receiving yards if he doesn't have exactly
14 if he goes you know 13 or less or 15 or more he doesn't have exactly 15 and you
follow the calculator you're going to lose you know a few bucks you're going to
lose 437 on your total stake of you know $958 so let's go through this middle bet
though middle Bets with a positive percentage like this one you can't lose money um
I think these are Canadian sports Sports books so personally I don't use them but
regardless the point of this video is for it to be educational to kind of go
through examples so let's go through it right plus 120 minus 117 let's kind of let
me kind of show you how it's impossible to lose money and if jayen herts right
Falls between this Gap granted it's going to be very rare but if he has exactly 40
rushing yards you're going to win both bets so let's just say for the sake of
example again I kind of have my my little a little spreadsheet pulled up I like to
make these spreadsheets I mean when I was starting to bet on Sports I found stuff
like this obviously super helpful but let's go back here and let's say okay on this
BET right book I want to bet 500 bucks so this calculator tells me yo you know bet
59309 on Prine on his under at minus 117 and if your middle does not hit right so
if Herz does not have exactly 40 rushing yards you're going to make a profit of 691
so again as I said previously I recommend rounding the calculator so let's say we
round Prine to 595 so we're betting 595 on Herz under 40 and a half rushing yards
at minus 117 we're betting his over at plus 120 for 500 bucks right so let's kind
of go through the math and let's start with the best possible outcome right if Herz
has exactly 40 rushing yards I know it's rare but if Herz has exactly 40 rushing
yards we win both of our bets right so on BET right we're gonna win $600 500 is
what we're betting on Herz over 39 a. half rushing yards we're betting $500 at plus
120 odds so if this wins we're going to win 500 time 1.2 we're going to win $600
profit on BET right so long story short if Herz has exactly 40 rushing yards we're
going to win our over 39 half 600 profit on Pro Line we bet 595 at minus 117 odds
so it's just 595 * 100 over 117 we're going to win 508 profit so if Herz has
exactly 40 rushing yards that's our main sweat that's what we want to happen we
make 1,00 bucks now on the other hand if Herz has 39 or less so if Herz has 39 or
less we're going to lose our bet on him over 39 A2 right if he has 10 rushing yards
20 30 39 whatever we're going to lose our bet on the over we bet is over for $500
at plus 120 so we lose this bet but we win on Prine 50855 our net profits 855 if he
has 40 or more we win 600 on BET right we bet 500 at plus 120 so this should
actually be 40 41 or more because if he has 40 exactly we win both bets so if he
has 41 or more we lose our under 402 if he has 41 7 71 101 whatever we lose our 595
on Prine we win 600 right on BET right and we make a profit of $5 regardless of
what happens I'm making money obviously I want him to have exactly 40 rushing yards
and it's not much profit otherwise but that is a positive middle regardless of what
happens we're making money if the very rare thing happens the middle hits then we
win both bets so this is kind of again the power of middle betting it's a data
driven sharp proven strategy sometimes there's better middle bets than others you
just refresh the tool to see so like here's one on Fox right over 27 A2 under 28 A2
so in this case you'd pull up the calculator let's say you want to bet $500 on
FanDuel this tells you to bet 57767 on points bet maybe you want to bet 250 288 I
don't know right you can kind of put in the stake that fits your bank roll and if
dearen fox has exactly 28 points which again his line is centered around he's not
going to have 100 points he's not going to have two points so 272 versus 282 versus
29 and a half those are pretty big moves um so you can make money no matter what if
you follow the Hedge calculator and then again if fox has exactly 28 points you'll
win your over on FanDuel you'll win your under on points bet because these two
bucks are super out of sync and you know you'll win both bets so you'll make like
$500 profit which is awesome so that is you know middle betting and how I use the
odds Jam middle betting tool so next we can go through a few other tools on odds
Jam so this is called the Sportsbook screen and essentially what it does is it just
gives you a grid view of you know essentially whatever Market you want to look at
So currently I'm in the NBA you can see all the sports books kind of lets you hunt
around you know if you whatever Market you want to look at you want to look at
Player points player first half points it just gives you a full grid and view of
the market and then you can see line movements are kind of highlighted in either
green or red depending on if the sports book improved the odds or made it worse so
you know this is fully customizable you can add Sports books you can get rid of
them there's 200 plus Sports books on this odds Jam screen you know tons of markets
I mean these Sports books have so many markets there's so many different things you
can bet most bets suck um but obviously you can hunt through the market find some
Bets with an edge then there is the odds Jam I call them game pages so essentially
it just shows you you know where you're getting the best possible odds so for
example let's say the Miami Ohio game you can see the best price is on Caesars at
plus 122 the best odds on Bowling Green is minus 133 on the BET Fair exchange and
again you can look at any Market that you want to this is a college football game
it's not a super popular one you can see all the spreads the the alternate spreads
and which books are offering the best possible line um odds Jam also has a bet
tracker so you can use the BET tracker I mean to be honest I don't use it that much
but to add a bet to your bet tracker you can just click on an odd so if I want to
bet this on DraftKings let's say for $500 you know I can save this to my bet
tracker which is just going to show me my profit and loss you know kind of a bunch
of things like that the BET tracker also gives you analytics on your p&l what bets
you have open all sorts of stuff like that um you can also add bets to the odds Jam
bet tracker directly from you know any betting tool so for example this is the odds
Jam Arbitrage tool which we went through which you can make risk-free money from so
let's say you lock in this Arbitrage bet the calculator tells you hey you know
maybe bet $500 on BET online 347 on DraftKings you're going to make a risk-free
profit of 2059 you can add this Arbitrage play to to your bet tracker you know
let's say you round on DraftKings to 345 from 3476 we went through the importance
of rounding you can kind of adjust that here add it to your bet tracker and it will
show you your profit and loss um again like obviously knowing your profit and loss
how much money you're making losing all your bets open you know that's really
important so the odds Jam bet tracker you know kind of makes that easy to do um so
you can see all the sports books how much money you have in them your profit and
loss by by day what days you have bets open all sorts of analytics that would get
filled out but again this just isn't something I use that frequently because I use
some other bet trackers um but regardless it's it's pretty nice and a lot of people
like
to use it so the next tool we have is the odds Jam positive expected Value Plus
evev tool um positive expected value it may seem like a complicated word it's not
it just means positive Roi and we'll kind of go through the math behind it here in
a second but basically it's fully customizable you know you put in all the sports
books you use there are millions of odds updating every single second on odds Jam I
mean every sports book like FanDuel they have tens and tens of thousands of lines
up on every single sports book so all the plus EV tool does the positive expected
value tool is it scans the millions of odds across Sports books and then for
whatever books you use it points out the biggest discrepancies again you can add a
BET right to your bet tracker here so let's say I want to bet saquon's under at
minus 103 on Caesars you know you can kind of adjust your stake whatever whatever
but you know what I want to do is kind of explain why do I think this bet on
Caesars is profitable so you'll notice like yo minus 103 seems pretty good all
these other sports books Pinnacle you know has this line at minus 140 Pinnacle is
known to be a pretty sharp book FanDuel has this at minus 152 DraftKings minus 130
and we can get minus 103 on Caesars so the way you know what my previous boss told
me actually um when I was working as a Trader um because he liked to bet on Sports
a lot too is you want to treat sports betting like trading a stock right so
essentially the average line on saquon's under is minus 139 odds across hundreds of
sports books this is just Sports books in New York so I have my state selected
again every state has different books so you can see like odds Jam would
automatically show you New York books but obviously there's a bunch of other books
so essentially like okay I'm able to buy saquon's under at minus 103 at $103 when
his under is trading in the Market at minus 139 Min you know so it's like buying a
stock at 103 bucks when it's trading in the Market at 139 you're getting value
relative to the market and you have to remember Sports books are data points right
so what do I mean by that what I mean by that is everything is factored into these
books and their odds right so like for example DraftKings is a multi-billion dollar
company I think it's like a 20 billion dollar company they're experts in setting
lines you know they have teams of data scientists extremely good models and also
they have access to flow so what I mean by that is sports books aren't stupid right
they're constantly adjusting their odds like you can see right here a line movement
chart from FanDuel you know they've just been moving saquon's line towards the
under this is just a line movement chart you just click on an odd and it will pull
up the line movement chart so everything is baked into Sportsbook odds lineups
injuries weather you know all that sort of stuff Sports books are pricing into
their odds they're also pricing in sharp action right like sports books aren't
stupid Pinnacle they're constantly adjusting their odds if start better start
betting you know saquin under they'll move lines towards the under then if people
start betting is over they'll move ODS back towards the over it's kind of like the
price of a stock right if the if the company has a really good earnings report the
stock will go up right there's more demand than Supply the market is reflecting hey
this company had a really good earnings report they made a lot more money than
expected so the stock price goes up representing a higher company valuation so kind
of everything is priced into the market Market you know people love to look at
historical data oh what did saquan do last game but that's already priced into the
odds these books are putting out so again you may say well who cares right like who
cares if all these other sports books have saquin under around minus one30 why does
that mean this bet on Caesars is profitable so there's a few a few ways you can
kind of think about this the first thing is if I go to an Arbitrage calculator is
you'll see that you know Caesars is arbitrage with this sports book noig you can
get the under at minus 103 betting 103 to win 100 you can get saquin over at plus
118 so this play was also on the odds Jam Arbitrage tool so essentially let's say I
use both FanDuel and Caesars I can pull up an Arbitrage calculator FanDuel has his
over at plus 116 Caesars has his under atus 103 and let's say I want to bet $500 on
FanDuel on the over if the plus number is greater than the minus number that means
there's Arbitrage on equal and opposite outcomes so if I wanted to I could
Arbitrage bet this we already went through Arbitrage betting and make a risk-free
profit of $322 right so I could just Arbitrage bet this Caesars and FanDuel and
make a risk-free profit so whenever Arbitrage exists you know one of these two bets
has to be profitable right if I bet the over at plus 116 on FanDuel and I bet the
under at minus 103 on fliff or sorry on Caesar so I bet the over at plus 116 on
FanDuel and the under on Caesars at minus 103 I can make a risk-free profit so one
of these bets has to be profitable one sports book has to be messing up because I
could literally bet his over on FanDuel his under on Caesars and make a risk-free
profit so someone is screwing up here one of these bets has to have a positive Roi
in looking at the rest of the market it's really clear that hey Caesars is the book
offering value right they have this at minus 103 it's very clear kind of seeing the
hundreds of other books that are setting lines that the value is on the Caesar side
so again you can think of it like buying a stock buy the stock at 103 when it's
trading in the Market at minus 139 at $139 so we're getting a 36 C Discount to the
average line in the market you also know because this is a crossed Market this is
arbitrage you could bet the over on FanDuel the under on Caesars if you hedge in
the right proportions using a hedge calculator also known as an Arbitrage
calculator you know you'll make a risk-free profit so you know one of these two
bets has to be profitable and then it becomes really clear it's the Caesar side but
you also have to remember sportsbooks are market makers their odds reflect
information the same way a stock price signifies the valuation of the company it's
the same thing in sports betting odds mean something right like minus 150 what does
that mean minus 150 means a 1.5 5 to1 betting favorite 60% to win minus 200 means a
2 to1 betting favorite 2/3 to win according to the market so long story short how
you can kind of think about this is DraftKings has a 30 Cent spread in their Market
Sports books are market makers that's how they make money right like DraftKings is
essentially like a stock broker saying hey I'll buy at 100 and I'll sell at 130
books are market makers so dra DraftKings has a 30 C spread so essentially when
you're trying to figure out what is the fair value an odds Jam has a no vague odds
calculator I use this all the time it's the most important calculator in sports
betting is you'll see DraftKings Market is plus 100 minus 130 so essentially what
this calculator does a no viig calculator is it takes a sportsbooks market I just
put in DraftKings plus 100 minus 130 they have a 30 Cent spread 30 cents of juice
viig whatever and this calculator just removes The Vig so the way that a sports
book works is they have models right these books are taking bets adjusting their
odds you can see a line movement chart this one for fliff so these Sports books are
taking Wagers adjusting their odds based on where actions coming in if all the
sharp bers start betting saquons under they'll move odds towards the under so the
way a Sportsbook works is they have models that spit out hey this is fair value
right this is a market with no juice right plus 113 minus 113 this is the no vague
odds also known as the fair ODS so essentially DraftKings model is saying hey you
know saquon's over should be priced at plus 113 his under should be priced at minus
113 that's a market with no hold you can bet on the over at plus 113 100 to win 113
profit or you can play the under 113 to win 100 profit the UND is minus 113 so
basically according to DraftKings according to the model the market they're putting
out the fair line on the under the true odds the true price of saquin under two and
a half receptions is minus 103 or sorry minus 113 we're getting minus 103 better
odds on Caesars so we're getting better than fair value which is why this bet is
plus EV positive Roi you know positive expected value however you want to think
about it so DraftKings is saying hey through their odds they have a 15 sorry they
have a 30 C spread the fair odds on the under is minus 113 we're getting minus 103
that's better than fair value this bets profitable fanduel's Market they're more
aggressive on the under than DraftKings all these books have different customers
they're taking different Wagers they have slightly different models but regardless
you can see there's not that much discrepancy in the market fanduel's a little more
aggressive on the under than let's say Pinnacle this book right here which is known
to be a really sharp sports book minus 140 versus - 1552 so essentially FanDuel has
a 36 Cent spread in their Market plus 116 minus 152 they're like stock Brokers they
buy the stock at 116 they sell it at minus 152 you remove The Vig according to
FanDuel you remove the juice the fair odds or the no vague odds would be plus 130
minus 130 so FanDuel saying the over should be priced at plus 130 the under should
be priced at minus 130 that's what they believe the true line is before they add
the juice add the vague to their market and again if the under is fair at minus 130
and we're getting minus 103 this is a plus EV bet this is a profitable bet so odds
Jam the positive
expected value tool it reads in odds from 200 plus Sports books every bet is a
data point it removes The Vig from every Sports books mark maret right so for every
single sports book Odd sham is doing this in real time it's taking fanduel's Market
removing The Vig to calculate the true odds the fair odds the no vague odds in this
case from FanDuel minus 130 DraftKings it was minus33 books have slightly different
weightings so bed online and Pinnacle for example are known to be two really sharp
Sports books so fanduel's Market you know was plus plus 116 minus 152 pinnacle's
Market is+ 115 -40 you remove The Vig the fair odds would be minus 1225 so Pinnacle
maybe is weighted you know a little higher in the odds Jam positive EV algorithm
than hot streak which is a kind of new sports book it's not known to be super sharp
so odds Jam is taking in every books odds removing The Vig taking a weighted
average where sharper books get a higher waiting and long story short you know
showing you the best plays where you're getting odds that are above fair value and
again there's hundreds of sports books so this tool is going to read in bets from
every sports book there can be good bets on DraftKings fliff whatever again ideally
use as many books as possible because you never know which of these Sports books is
going to have you know the best value on a given day but that's kind of how the
odds Jam positive EV tool works all these bets has a have a positive Roi you know
you're not guaranteed to win every bet but over the course of the long run you'll
make money and again I recommend set your odds fromus 175 to plus 175 that's
roughly what I have so next I wanted to explain how to use odds Jam how I beat
fantasy bucks and there's four main fantasy books I use DFS fixed payout Pick on
websites prize picks Underdog fantasy dabble and better those are the main four
that I use and you can see um they're super profitable right so like you know you
can see on better I'm up almost $70,000 this year on Underdog fantasy I'm up like
15K long story short these books are super exploitable but they work a little
differently from traditional Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings so there's a
few main differences first of all on fantasy books like prize picks and Underdog
you can only play player props they don't have straight bets so for example if you
want to bet on the Knicks to win you can't do that you can't do that on prize pck
you can't take money lines point spreads totals nothing like that all they have are
player props the second thing that makes fantasy books interesting is they're
parlay only so what I mean by that is let's say I really like Josh Hart under 15 1
12 rebounds plus assists this is a play that's available on Underdog fantasy which
again is a fantasy book that I've used for you know about the past three years now
and I've had a lot of success on it but what you'll notice is if I just try to take
Josh Hart under 15 1 12 rebounds plus assists they tell me hey you need at least
two picks you need at least two picks to complete your entry so on these fantasy
books they're parlay only so you need to have at least two picks but what I wanted
to do is just kind of run through how I use odds Jam to maximize my profits on
websites like prize picks Underdog fantasy better and Dabble because again these
sites are super exploit but they work a little differently than traditional Sports
books like FanDuel and DraftKings so the first tool that I use to beat these
fantasy books is the odds Jam positive EV tool we've already gone through the
positive EV tool for traditional Sports books like fandel DraftKings whatever but
you can also use this tool to make money on Underdog fantasy and prize picks so
kind of important to know but I have an example play popped up which you can see
right here here is the way that Underdog fantasy works is they have fixed payouts
so what do I mean by that is right here you can see right Underdog fantasy is
giving me a 6X payout so I'm putting down 100 to win 600 on a three pick entry and
it doesn't matter if I take you know if I switch this from an over to an under I'm
still getting a 6X payout same thing here if I switch this from an over to an under
I'm still getting a 6X pay out so basically these fantasy sites if I you know
remove the hockey pick that I just had and I add in another pick you can see it
doesn't matter right I'm still getting a 6X payout so Underdog fantasy they give
you a 6X payout for any three pick entry so basically Underdog fantasy they're
giving us the same price on Josh Hart if I take Josh Harts over or is under I'm
getting the same payout a 6X payout for a repick entry so what odds Jam does right
this positive EV tool is it just compares the lines on Underdog prize picks all
these different sites to sports books so if you look at every sports book all these
Sports books it doesn't matter if you use FanDuel hot streak fliff it doesn't
matter if you use these books or not they're data points FanDuel is a $40 billion
company right they're experts in setting lines you want to put some weight into
their odds and you'll see all these Sports books have Josh Hart's under favored
FanDuel has his under 15 half Ras as a minus 132 favorite so all these books are
telling you through their betting Market through their odds that hey Josh Hart's a
lot more likely to go under as opposed to over so that would be the sharp pick that
you want to be on on Underdog fantasy now one thing I wanted to note is it's really
important on these fantasy sites like underdog dabble better and prize picks the
main three I use it's really important what type of slip you go with so Underdog
fantasy they give you better payouts than prize picks in general they give you a 6X
payout on three pick entries whereas if I head over to prize picks you'll see prize
pick is cheaper they only give me a 5x payout on three mans so it is kind of
important on these fantasy books what type of slip you go with and I've done other
YouTube tutorials kind of breaking down the optimal slip type on each platform
because again priz piix only gives you 5x and Underdog gives you 6X for a three man
another thing to note is this line you can see it's not available on prize picks
it's only available on Underdog fantasy which again just goes to the point of using
multiple platforms this is a really profitable bet on Underdog fantasy but it's not
available on prize picks so sometimes there's better value on underdog sometimes
there's better value on prize picks and that's kind of the benefit um of using
multiple Sports books so another tool that I like to use this tool it's called the
odds Jam fantasy Optimizer is really meant for people who can't use traditional
Sports books like FanDuel and DraftKings fantasy books like prize picks are legal
in a bunch more States like California and Texas and California and Texas you don't
have FanDuel but you do have fantasy books like Underdog fantasy like prize picks
and like dabble so for example for prize picks this is the odds Jam fantasy
Optimizer I have prize pick selected it's recommending taking Cameron Dicker over
one and a half field goals if you look here all the sports books DraftKings all
these different sports books they all have Cameron Dicker over heavily favored
right like fliff has his line at minus 150 whatever um you can see another play is
odds Jam will also point out line discrepancies so Esports in my opinion is super
profitable on these fantasy books there's like 50 Esports games a day the Market's
super fragmented super inefficient so there's a lot of opportunity more games means
more profitable betting opportunities so you can see prize picks has Merit 2K this
random Esports player they have his line at 30 if you look at every other sports
book right like Underdog fantasy parlay play all these other books granted FanDuel
DraftKings a lot of these multi-billion dollar companies they don't do Esports
player props but all these other books have Merit 2k's line lower at 28 and a half
finding value that's the first step to being a profitable better you got to be
doing it so Merit 2K under 30 you know that's why odds jams recommending it it
seems like a great play a bet with an edge in every other fantasy book has Merit
2k's line lower at 28 a half so again every tool on odds Jam from you know the
Arbitrage betting tool the positive EV tool it's all just data why is odds JM
recommending Cameron Dicker over one and a half field goals well every sports book
has his over as a heavy favorite around like minus 140 odds his over is more likely
than is under what about this Merit 2K line why should we be taking the under 30
well every other book has his line at 282 so these fantasy books again I've kind of
gone through the math and other videos behind like what type of slip is optimal on
each platform because again prps and Underdog fantasy they don't have the same
lines they also don't have the same payouts however they do have the same payouts
sometimes so like for example on Underdog fantasy any two-p pick entry so you can
see if I remove one of the picks now I have a two- pick entry just two picks in
this Underdog giving me a 3X payout sometimes they have the same payout on prize
picks they only give they give you a 3X payout too so sometimes these fantasy books
like prize picks Underdog they have the same payout other times like three pick
entries they start to differ so it's really important to kind of know what type of
slip is optimal which again I've done a bunch of videos kind of breaking down the
math Behind These platforms and what type of slip is optimal so the final tool I
wanted to mention is the odds Jam promo converter so this tool is super super
valuable I mean if you look at Caesar sports book for example all these books are
in ruthless competition with one another for new
customers so a lot of these books like Caesars they have an $1,000 insured BET
right when you first sign up for Caesars their promo their offer is hey if you lose
your first play we'll give you back $1,000 right up to $1,000 if you only play 500
they'll give you back 500 if your play loses if your bet loses but what they're
telling you right here I mean I'm literally just on you know Caesar Sportsbook
homepage I've already done all these signup bonuses but if you're just signing up
for sports books all these books have lucrative deposit matches is on Caesars they
tell you hey if your first bet loses we'll give you your money back in bonus bets
so so the question is you know how do we maximize our profit right how do we take
this promo and turn it into money and essentially that's where odds jam comes in
with this promo converter so basically this is a risk-free insured play so what
does that mean what that means is if you lose you get your money back in bonus bets
so long story short because this is an insured play right we don't want to place
our first bet on Caesars if we're first signing up for Caesars you don't want to
play this $1,000 bet on a big favorite right like the whole value of the promo is
your play is insured if you lose you get your money back so essentially what that
means if I go back to this promo converter is you want to bet on an underdog you
want to bet on a long shot so you can see the top play currently on Caesars I have
Caesars selected on the promo is it tells me if you want to hedge and turn your bet
into risk-free profit what you can do and granted this is a bit of a long shot but
you can see the breakdown here is you want to bet on you know this hockey player
caught kdy to score a goal at plus 650 and then you want to hedge on FanDuel it
says $6,000 but obviously a $6,000 hedge bet on a guy to not score a goal may not
be possible so you you may need to find another play for example Memphis and
Connecticut maybe you can't bet you know the full amount 5950 on fanuel but what
this is going to tell you is hey you can take this Caesars promo and by hedging you
want to bet on a long shot with your risk-free bet the whole value of the promo is
if you lose you get your money back so you want to play a long shot on Caesars and
then go to a different sports book and play the big favorite in this case just
Barry katakami to not score goal at- 700 on FanDuel but again it's probably going
to be hard to get that much action down so even though this would be the most
lucrative you know would give you the highest amount of risk-free profit maybe
instead we take Memphis right a college basketball Underdog on Caesars this tells
me hey Hedon FanDuel bet on Yukon at minus 375 for 2960 and regardless of what
happens I'm going to convert my bonus bet my sign up promo on Caesars into $700 in
risk-free profit so this is a little bit complicated but you know maybe it takes
some time to go through some examples and really understand how it works but these
sign up bonuses are super lucrative and odd Jam you know has a promo converter that
really helps you with all the different types of promos from profit boost bonus
bets you know insured bets just like this one on Caesars where if you lose your
first bet you get your money back back in bonus funds it shows you how to take
these super lucrative signup bonuses and convert them into risk-free profit what is
the best line to take on Caesars and then what's the best book to hedge on in this
case it's FanDuel to guarantee a risk-free profit so I could take the Caesar signup
promo and turn it in to a risk-free profit of 700 bucks um again just following the
calculators but long story short I really hope you enjoyed this tutorial on odds
Jam the differ betting tools how to maximize profit and thank you so much for your
time

hello L gentlemen welcome back to the channel or if this is your first time here
welcome to the guy Boston Sports YouTube channel um this is a little bit of a
different video than what I'm typically used to making here on the channel if you
are't new here you'll know that I do my daily NBA player prop parlay videos here on
the guy Boston Sports YouTube channel along with a couple other things I do
football videos both college and NFL I do videos with EV I'm the founder of guy
Boston sports but mainly I do my daily NBA player prop parlay uh video series but
with the NBA also St break here and no NBA games for the next week I need some new
stuff to do some different types of content to make so all week long you're going
to see be seeing maybe some different types of videos from me including one like
today's video so what is today's video All About You might be asking well this
video today is going to be a peak behind the curtain of how I go about picking
player props for my daily NBA player prop parlay videos I threw this idea out on
one of those player prop parlay videos a couple weeks ago about would you guys like
to see sort of a behind the the scenes look of how I go about picking my props and
a lot of people responded Yes we'd like to see that so I figure with again no NBA
videos coming out the next week this is a great time to go ahead and make this
video so that's what today's video is I'm going to be showing you guys how I make
my daily NBA player prop parley videos the process I go through what tools I use
all that stuff it's a peak behind the curtain of how the show gets made so I'm
really excited to do this for you guys before we dive in guys make sure hit that
subscribe button hit that like button we are on the road to 100,000 subscribers
here on the channel we are already more than halfway there and with your help we'll
get there even sooner we have tons of great content here on the channel we have my
player prop videos we have ev's daily NBA picks again when it's football season we
have a ton of stuff MLBs coming up in the near future I'll be doing MLB player prop
parlays EV does his his daily MLB picks we have March Madness content coming up
we're going to have maybe some golf content coming up who knows so a lot of a lot
of sports betting content coming up uh in the near future and stuff that we already
do now so make sure hit that subscribe button don't miss a single video without
further Ado guys let's get into today's video so the first thing I want to say
right off the bat is in my opinion the most important part of player prop betting
across any sport not just NBA you talk about NHL MLB uh NFL all that stuff um is
research I think research is King research is key when it comes to betting player
props now don't get me wrong I think the it test has its spot right you do
obviously I think need to have some knowledge of the game you know obviously it
helps if you watch the games if you're uh knowledgeable about players and stuff
like that but I think most important honestly is analytics data Trends patterns all
these things realistically and it's funny cuz I if you asked me this about a year
or two ago I would have never said this but realistically you don't even need to
really watch the games to get a decent idea of where to go with some of your player
props like if you just keep track of the data and and you look at the analytics
behind it all you could actually be a decent better without even actually watching
the games I don't recommend that personally like I watch the games I'm
knowledgeable on basketball I've been a basketball fan my whole life um any sport
I'm betting on typically I know what I'm doing or I'm a fan of the sport um so I
wouldn't recommend just going off of numbers but the numbers paint most of the
picture when it comes to not just player prop betting but sports betting in general
so when it comes to my player prop parlay videos I put a lot of time in with
research and whatnot um and it all depends it depends on the day right if I'm doing
a three-leg parlay for example I'm going to spend at least a minimum of 20 minutes
now some people may look at that and go whoa 20 minutes for a three-leg parlay
you're whing perhaps I am everybody has their own methods and their own ways of
doing things I know some YouTubers who maybe they only spend like 10 minutes and
some people even said as much professional sports bets who only take maybe 5 or 10
minutes and they're able to find a bet they like kudos to you that's just not how I
do it specifically when it comes comes to player props I like to take my time and
look at the data and do my proper research before placing my bets especially
someone who Gets behind the camera and I share picks with people I don't want to
just half ass it and just give you guys picks that I'm not even so sure of I want
to make sure that if I'm giving you guys picks um they're solid they I believe in
them there's data to back them up I want to make sure that I'm doing my job I pride
myself on my work and I don't want to just be out here giving you guys bad pcks cuz
at that point I'm going to lose viewers we're going to lose subscribers I want to
build this channel up even more and build my videos up even more and the best way
to do that is to win and how do you win by putting in the work not to get
philosophical but it applies everything in life you want to lose weight you got to
work out and you got to eat better you know you want to get the promotion at work
you got to work harder you got to put in more hours the same thing with sports
betting you want to hit more bets you got to put in more time with research and you
got to learn study more and learn the ins and outs of sports betting more so for
some of my parlay videos that are like five legs like our Freaky Friday parlays
that are five leg parlays typically speaking I can spend up to 45 minutes to even
an hour so sometimes doing research to make sure that I'm giving you guys good
props so research is key that is the number one thing to remember here is that
research is key if you feel like you're spending too much time on it you're
probably not there's no such thing as too much research when it comes to sports
betting and player props now the next question you might ask is taso what do you
use for your sports betting research what do you do do you just go on Google and
look up statistics no I have about four websites that I typically use primarily
every day there I rotate the four sometimes I use some more than others um and and
sometimes I use more than those four websites I might go on Google and look up some
stuff maybe I'll use something like Action Network or ESPN or any any you know it's
never always the same but typically there are four websites that I use that I'm
going to show to you in just a second so let's go ahead and do a screen share here
guys we're going share my screen and this website that you're seeing right in front
of you is truthfully the tool that I use the most when it comes to sports betting
move my screen over you guys can get a better look here this is outline Li it is
the best sports betting tool on the market and if you watch my player prop parlay
videos you know that they are the sponsor of every NBA player prop parley video
that I do and I say this all the time even I I know they're a sponsor of the
channel and sponsor of the show but even if they were not a sponsor I would still
use outlier every single day they are truly the best sports betting tool on the
market we do have a special link in the description below you get a 7-Day free
trial you try it out for yourself if you want to I'm going to show you guys a bunch
of outlier stuff in this video that you can use so so maybe after this video You're
convinced if not it's all cool if you are though there is a special link there to
try it out for 7 days you got nothing to lose so outlier is where the majority of
my sports betting research comes to I would say up to 75% of my daily sports
betting research is done on outlier before outlier I was probably spending more
than an hour researching props and and data and stuff um but this this tool
consolidates it all it puts it all in one place it really is fantastic but it is
not the only website that I use the second website that iuse use the most is stat
Muse it is a free service mostly there is a pro Subscription Service I think it's
20 bucks a month to unlock everything they have to offer um but stat Muse they have
stats for every kind of sports League specifically NBA is what we use it for here
um but they they give a lot of information a lot of sports statistics uh
specifically what I use this for is for head-to-head data now outlier does provide
head-to-head matchup data to see what a player's history is versus a certain team
but the problem with outlier one of the flaws of outlier I would say is that they
only go back a certain distance like maybe two years whereas stat Muse you can look
up a player's entire career numbers versus a team for example if you wanted to see
you know Yan for example the Bucks tonight are playing the Grizzlies you wanted to
see what giannis's career stats are versus Memphis you plug it in jannis career
versus Grizzlies and it'll show you um not just his career averages but it'll show
you individual game logs for every single game that he's played versus the Memphis
Grizz so it's a pretty good tool again it kind of fills in the blanks of the where
where outlier misses some data when it comes to the head-to-head matchup stat Muse
can help me fill that up and they offer a bunch of other stats and information as
well beyond that but I primarily use it for head-to-head data the third website I
use the most for sports betting research is basketball reference they literally are
the best database of sport statistics around they also have like football reference
baseball reference all that stuff um but literally every statistic that you could
possibly look for is here um I don't go here too too much again the two that I use
the most for outlier and Stat Muse I will come here sometimes if I'm looking for
averages I'm looking for maybe some Advanced stats when it comes to shooting
percentages and stuff like that literally every statistic known to man is on here
they also have individual game logs for pretty much every game a player has ever
played so that is also nice sometimes and the fourth website that I use the most
although I will be honest this website of late I haven't been using too too much is
fantasy pros now what I primarily use this for is for defensive stats versus
individual positions um they do a pretty good job on fantasy pros of compiling all
that the only reason why I don't use it as much as anymore is because outlier has
gotten a lot more accurate with their defensive metrics versus individual positions
um so I typically just get that data off of outlier now but fantasy pros does have
it and they have a little bit more again I haven't really been using this to too
much but for example if you don't have outlier uh fantasy pros is a good backup
that give you defensive stats versus like for example you want to see uh what the
Warriors defensive numbers are against point guards they have it you want to see
what the miam he how they Stack Up defensively versus the power forward position
they have it so that's the use of fantasy pros they have way more other stuff on
there but that's primarily what I use it for so that's the fourth website that I
use the most here but again jumping back to the outlier screen outlier is where the
majority of my research comes in so looking at outlier when you first sign in the
outlier it will take you to the trends screen first which is a nice useful tool but
not what we're looking at right now you go down a couple pegs here on the left side
of the screen you'll see this button here which is the player prop tab so now we in
the props Tab and you see here there's a lot of stuff to look at so guys there's a
lot of data to look at here and if you don't put specific filters in you're going
to get overwhelmed with all the data there's so much in here what I like to do is I
filter I narrow it down I water down the props until I get exactly what I'm looking
for so my first step when using outlier when picking player props is I'm going to
go to the right side of the screen here and you'll see props available so in total
there are 2742 player props out there right now there are 1,347 on this page but
when I click alternate line L now every single player prop is available so right
now on this screen if you scroll down here there are 2,742 player props available I
mean I can just scroll for hours on this thing there's so much available there and
there's only three games on tonight so imagine when there's a full NBA slate it
gets pretty overwhelming so I'm going to keep the alternate line tabs uh activated
because I do like to bet alternate lines I know some people don't like it because
depending on the sports book you use it won't be available to you but alternate
lines are a great way to get hits it it it takes some of the risk out of it I
typically like to use alternate lines in a lot of my parlays to get better lines
for our bets because sometimes you like a player you like the spot it's just a
point or two more than you would you would like to bet it at take the alternate
line you bring it down a notch you give yourself a better chance of hitting all
right so now that we've activated the alternate line the next thing I do is I go
over here to the odds Tab and this basically Narrows down it sorts and filters down
what I'm looking for so right now if you leave it as it is you get odds ofus 20,000
to plus 9500 so typically if I'm doing a five leg parlay what I will usually set
this to is like minus 215 minus 220 cuz when you're doing more legs I don't mind
putting some high value odd parlays in there uh props excuse me for example for
today's video that I'm doing for you guys for Thursday um we only have three games
I'm only doing a three leg parlay because there's not a ton available to me so
instead I'm probably going to go ahead and put it just to minus 200 all right so
now we're at minus 200 there all right and we're going to go ahead and close so now
so now it's going to filter the props down so we're only going to see odds of Min -
200 or higher now down here in the left bottom side of the screen you if you click
this this will filter what sports books you want them to show now typically for the
videos I like to leave them all on so people who maybe you're betting on prize
picks maybe you're betting on Underdog or bed up GM or Caesars or DraftKings or
FanDuel it shows you a little bit everything but let's say you only want FanDuel or
for me you know if you watch my videos you know I love DraftKings let's say I just
want DraftKings I'll go ahead and I'll deselect the ones I don't want and now it's
filtering to draftking props all right guys so now we have uh we have the alternate
lines activated it's -200 to plus 9500 and again you can go ahead and switch things
in when you click on the individual players um so we're starting to filter this
down now you can switch it to over and under I don't do this I mean typically I do
like to I do prefer to bet overs more than unders you probably have noticed that if
you watched my videos but I don't like to limit myself I like to take a look at the
unders as well so I you you if you don't want to bet them or you're looking for
specific over or under you can filter that like right now I clicked that now it's
only going to show us overs you X out of that and we're back to total so I like to
leave that both over and under so I get a full view over here it shows you all the
players so there's 33 players that we have to pick from for player props um if
you're looking for specific players you can obviously go ahead and search them if
you want to filter this so let's say I just I just want props available for Santi
Alama for Giannis and for Jordan Clarkson now we're showing all the props for those
players and you see here still a lot 153 props available for those three guys so
click out of that so now we have all players are available to us this part right
here is important and we're going to have a disagreement of philosophy I'm sure
with a few people but this is what I typically do so you look at the lights the
left side of the screen here so as of right now we have8 over 1,800 props still
available it's just way too much thrown at us we have to narrow it down to find
some more value to find some better hits I typically so if you go to left left side
of the screen here these are all the statistical categories that you can filter to
look for so I mean there's a lot of them you can even do fantasy score free throws
turnovers three-pointers all the three-pointer attempt now not all these are going
to be available in every sports book what I do for my videos and my player props I
put it to filter points points plus assists Points Plus rebounds Points Plus
rebounds in assists and rebounds and assists and that's it I don't filter anything
else on there I don't want to look at any of these other props I don't look at
first half bets I don't look at quarter bets I don't look at blocks steals
turnovers even stuff that people love assists and rebounds individually I don't bet
them personally I just think there's too many variables when it comes to just
individual assists blocks steals three-pointers made turnovers those are the props
I see lose more often than not and again we at a 75% hit rate on our props this
year yes we don't always hit the parlays but overall the props I've been giving out
have been pretty darn good and part of that is because I switched to this method a
lot of if you look at some of the bigger YouTubers that give out sports betting
picks typically they follow this same pattern of just betting points points plus
assists Points Plus rebounds Points Plus rebounds plus assists rebounds plus
assists those are the props that have the higher hit rates um and there's a lot
less variables to those so that's why I stick with those we're looking again we're
looking for hits um yes is it fun to bet three-point props absolutely thrill when
you cash that and you see the guy hit the three that wins the bet it's awesome but
when it comes to our parlays they just I've noticed even beginning of the year when
I was doing the videos when I first started I was putting those props in there
those were the ones that always lost me the parlays so that's what I stick with and
narrows it down now we have 859 props I just I just wiped out a, props now we have
859 props to choose from now we have we narrowed it down a little bit and now we
can go ahead and start taking a look at what's available now we are ready to build
on now that I have all the filters in here I have everything I'm looking for now we
are ready to build our parlay now on the right side of the screen here guys you can
sort these by what like hit rate so example you can sort these so that it it it
filters it by hit rate of last five games last 10 games last 20 games um head to-
head 2023 hit rate 2022 hit rate implied probability odds lines um defensive ranks
there's so many ways you can go ahead and get a look at the data so what I usually
do to start is I click the 2023 season so I can go ahead and see sometimes you'll
see some Trends I've just been hitting all year round that are just too easy that
you have to take John Collins this is how he started finding his line I kept
betting it consistently was because I'd click on this I'd say wow he's hitting this
at an 83% hit rate why am I not betting this more so first and foremost what I
typically do
I put it to 2023 and you'll see here um the hit rate 79% 78% and it goes down
obviously it descends and you see a bunch of the props and you can see what their
season hit rate is um that's typically where where I start so typically I'll go
through that for a little bit I'll go down what I typically look for is I I
obviously look at the 2023 hit rate and then I move left so I'm going to look at it
and say okay well he has a head-to-head hit rate of 100% that's pretty good last 20
hit rate 70% pretty good last you want to see as much green along this line as you
can so this first prop this Vinnie Williams under 11 and a half rebounds plus
assist prop actually a lot of data to support it 79% hit rate this year 100% hit
rate against this against the Milwaukee um you know solid numbers keep going down
Jonathan kaminga under 26 and a half points plus rebounds again 78% hit rate he's
hit it in 100% of his last five games not as great as the first one but and you
keep going down here and what I do is I'll keep scrolling until I see something I
really popped out usually if I see a lot of green that's what I typically have to
click on and do a little further research so for example I'll go ahead and take
this Jonathan kaminga one and we'll go ahead and take a look here and see so again
like we like I saw in the data you you know 2023 hit rate 78% hit rate 40 of 51
games Jonathan kaminga has cashed this under of 26 and a half points plus rebounds
pretty good data and you can either click on the tabs up here or you can just look
down here like I said the last 10 hit rate 60% last 20 55% last year 2022 he had a
97% hit rate on this under um so the data is not too bad you look at the head-to-
head matchup um he's hit it in three of his last four games against Utah so not too
bad for Kingo the dad is there so typically look at that first I'll look at his
minutes played um all that stuff down below they do show insights so Jonathan
kaminga has failed to exceed 25 and a half points plus rebounds in forward last
five games on the road so that's an interesting stat to throw at you so like I said
I'll typically look at all this data I'll look at it what what it you know I'll
look at all this information and then I'll look at the right side of the screen
here I'll look at the defens I'll look at defensive matchup and injuries are the
two that I look at next so defensive matchup here overall you'll see um not a
really great match up the Jazz are actually a bottom five defensive team in the NBA
in terms of points allowed so in terms of cashing his under you'll see it's red
because it's not great and I'll go ahead okay power forward not great right they
give up the most points in the NBA two opposing power forwards middle of the road
and rebounds allowed so overall it's not a good defensive match up for him to cash
this under and then I'll go ahead and look at the injury report and there's nothing
really there so this really doesn't matter um only Chris Paul's out so nothing
really there to look at but if we go ahead and scroll and look at his last 10 games
you see they just played last night on February 14th so he's on a they're playing
on a back to- back how many minutes did kaminga play last night almost 35 minutes
so playing on the back toback he just played 35 minutes last night that is
something to take into consideration um but I probably would avoid this prop
because although he's been cashing the under and the dad is there I don't like
seeing that defensive match up this is this team gives up the most points to
opposing power forwards and kaminga he has cashes you see here on the on the left
side of the screen couple Reds he's he's had some pretty big games of late so I
don't really like this spy here for kaminga so we'll back out of that one and we go
back to the screen um but just to show you what my next step would be so I'd go
through the 2023 hit rates right if at that point I don't find or I don't find what
I like or if I need more props I don't find all of them that way then we'll go
ahead and switch it to head-to-head right so we'll go ahead and see okay uh which
players have a great hit rate versus opposing teams and you'll see here Vinnie
Williams he cashes under 100% of the time versus um Milwaukee and and so forth and
kind of the same principle right I'm going to go down this list I see all the great
100% hit rates but I'm also looking across the whole line from more green this
DeAndre 81 for example right here not too bad you'll see here over 15 and a half
points plus assists 80% his last five games 80% is last 10 50 on the season 50 is
last 20 not too bad but 100% head-to-head defensive match up though the
Timberwolves are pretty good so not great and basically what I'll do is I'll just
keep working my way across and then you know if I don't see what I like there I'll
go to the last 20 games and I'll filter it there and you see 75% and I'll go down
the list and I'll try to see again if I see I want to see as much green across this
line here as I can you know it doesn't help me yes okay he's hit at a 75% hit rate
but 0% head-to-head 50% in his last 10 games that's not great you want to see a lot
of green across the board this Keon George one for example not bad under eight and
a half rebounds plus assist 75% here his last 20 games 67% on the year 100% head-
to-head uh 70% his last 10 games 6% last his last five on the Warriors not a yellow
in the defensive rankings 50% implied probability so you see here that's not a bad
one so and that's what I do and then like guess said like I said if I can't find it
there we'll go to the last 10 and we'll just keep doing the same thing until I find
what I like and like I said I'm not going through what I my full process but I'll
click on a player you know I'll go ahead and look at the individual stats I'll go
over to stat Muse this PL this prop apparently is not available um but that that's
the process over overall that I do and like I said I will do this for 30 plus
minutes usually like I said if it's a three leg parlay and it's quick you know
sometimes the data will jump right out to you right away and it only like a 20-
minute process sometimes this takes up to an hour like I said I will just keep
playing with the filters I'll just keep changing I'm sorting it I'll keep looking
at the players and then sometimes I'll even click on it and and look at their their
alternate lines so for example here we'll look at this okay I don't know why all
the Vinnie Williams props are not available we'll go ahead and look at this kaminga
one right so this kaminga one here uh under 20 and a half points so the data is
pretty strong 7 76% hit rate this season again though like we said before we don't
like the the matchup I'm can go ahead here look at the alternate lines and it gives
you everything that's available so I may maybe I want to switch it to his over
let's you know what it's a really bad really good defensive match up for him in
terms of scoring maybe I'll go ahead and take him over 16 and a half points instead
I'll change the line and you see here the data will change uh we don't love that
even though the good defensive matchup the data is not fantastic but go back to
alternate lines we can go ahead and make this under 22 and a half points and now
it's an alternate line minus 220 okay and the data is even stronger now right 84%
he's hitting 43 out of 51 games this season so again I play around with it a lot
and you know I look at the injuries and stuff like that but that's generally the
process that I go through so yeah guys that's that's essentially the gist of it
like I said I I I could go way more in depth I'm sure um but video is already
running a little long and I you know I I could spend hours talking about this stuff
but that's basically what I do like I said I play with the filters on here you know
I try to narrow it down um I'll click on the players I'll look at all the data you
know and typically like I said what I'm looking for is a lot of green here you know
the more green the better um and and like I said it's it's a mixture of everything
and it's rare you're going to find a perfect one but that is it guys that is that
is my whole entire process um of how I bet NBA player props like I said I hope you
guys enjoyed this video if you want more videos like this one feel free to sound
off in the comments criticism is accepted and it is appreciated um but yeah that is
basically you know not it's as simple as I could possibly make it for what I do
like I said there is more that goes into it I spend a lot of time doing this stuff
but that is on a simple level that is my process I wake up and I shower I eat
breakfast I hop on my computer I do this I go through outlier I spend like I said
between 25 and like an hour uh 25 minutes and an hour going through all this
playing with the filters looking at all the data you know crosschecking numbers
across these websites and then basically when I see something I just really like it
and the DAT is strong good matchup you know and sometimes if the match up's not
good the head-to head's got to be good you know what I mean like if the if the
match up's not fantastic but the head tohe head's 100 for example right here the
Brandon psky one right not a great matchup in terms of Defense but 100% hit- to-
head hit rate those are the kind of things that I look for but guys that is it for
me today thank you very much for watching hit that subscribe button hit that like
button I'll see you all later

if you've heard people talking about units or flat betting or Kelly criteria and
you're a little confused about what you should do about that or how you should
adjust your bet sizing accordingly this is the video for you stay [Music] tuned
welcome to data driven sports betting I'm atrian bets and I use my brain to make
bets now this video we want to talk about how to size your bets appropriately
there's a lot of misinformation out there in the sports betting Twitter verse and
whatnot around how you should size your bets and first off you'll you'll hear touts
and other people who don't want you to know what their results actually are they'll
talk about units ignore that entirely units are not helpful in sports betting
because your actual dollar amounts are meaningful so abstracting that and using
units because this is a three-unit play or a 4unit play or a one un player whatever
all that does is remove a critical part of the betting process which is actually
getting the money down from the equation which is not a fair way to assess a sports
bet because just because you say oh I like this play I would have bet it for five
units doesn't mean whatever your five unit magic number is doesn't mean you're
actually going to be able to make that play the last I checked no sports book
actually accepts units as a monetary payment so we shouldn't be talking about those
because quite frankly when you're a sharp Sports better one of the hardest things
to do is get the money down to make the BET itself right you could look at
Arbitrage plays and never have to play either side be like I've made a million
dollars on paper well yeah cuz the hard part is actually making the bets and
winning the bets and have the bets honored by the books cuz they really don't like
to do that sometimes right so ignore units first off just we will not acknowledge
that because that is all just ma made up if you like to bet and made up land go
play units fine secondly you will see some people who are just like I flap at
everything you bet that same amount on every single play well there's a big problem
with that and we're going to talk about what that is right so the fact is is that
if you are betting say $100 just keep it simple that probably is more than a lot of
you are betting but the fact is is that if you bet $100 on every play what you're
going to have is that if you are betting at our typical minus 110 odds for $100
that's about kind of your normal barometer right that's what you size in your mind
is $100 it's like it's roughly a coin flip a little bit less because of The Vig and
the and the hold from the books but otherwise that's the amount you're betting
right five but what happens when it's at minus 150 orus 200 well now if it's minus
200 that you're betting into a heavy favorite what that means is that for $100 that
you're betting you're only going to win 50 if you win and you're very likely to win
whereas if you were sizing your bet based on how much you would win you would be
betting $200 to win $100 and that again is a coar adjustment that you could make
where now you would be risking more with a greater Ree of of chance of winning but
overall if you win the relative expected percentage of the time for those favorites
you're going to win around the same amount as if you said you were playing plus2
200 odds with your $100 bet now you risk a 100 to win $200 well if you lose that's
not that big of a deal you lost your 100 if you win you win extra and so what ends
up happening there if you win the relative amount of the time that you're expected
to you're actually going to have an over waiting to those underdogs because if
you're if you're betting $100 on everything right if you win a smaller amount of
the time if The Underdogs come through that's going to Skyrocket your results right
so what you're going to end up doing is on average you're going to have these
swinger results because if you are calibrating on what you were winning the more
you bet heavy favorites and heavy underdogs the more suspect you're going to be to
variants when the unexpected event occurs scenario where you're betting a lot of
favorites if you are under betting the favorites which is effective ly what you're
doing if you're flat betting you under bet the favorites and you over BET The
Underdogs if the favorite loses you're going to feel the pain less but you're going
to have less of your portfolio represented by favorites on the underdog when you
win the unexpected event you're going to feel it better and you're going to be like
I'm the greatest better in the world but that's cuz you're overweight to The
Underdogs so if you lose your favorites and you win your underdogs you're going to
have great results but if you win your favorites and lose your underdogs you're not
going to have great results you were probably just going to be breaking even at
best so your EV starts to get skewed because you don't have a balanced portfolio
it's kind of thinking of it like this way it's like if you have a portfolio
strategy and what you want is a mixed portfolio of fixed income and equities and
you want to have a balanced portfolio 50/50 but the math is like The Underdogs and
favorites here what you would effectively do is overweight your equities your more
risky Investments and underweight your conservative Investments and that would lead
you to an undesired outcome now if you want to be betting more on your underdogs by
all means fled if you want to but it's not really a good bankroll management
strategy especially if you don't understand the implications of flap Ting the next
kind of betting that you will see a lot of folks advocate for is what's called The
Kelly Criterion now the Kelly Criterion factors in a couple things we have videos
on the Kelly Criterion and is a useful way to do one specific thing and that is
make sure your bet sizes don't make you broke because Kelly Criterion is a risk of
Ruin calculator that makes sure that you're not overbetting for the amount of risk
and the percentage of likelihood of that event occurring so you look at your EV
percentage so what you're calculating is your Edge and your likelihood of winning
and that is effectively what Kelly Criterion uses to make the recommended bet size
very useful right that's what a lot of sports bets use exclusively to size their
bets that is better in my opinion than using flat beding certainly better than
using units so at least respects your bankroll setting and helps you size your bets
according to the likelihood of winning and whether or not it's an underdog or
favorite and how much Edge you have so you want to be playing more reasonably when
you have a greater Edge so what we do in a train station is we help you set that in
and so this Kelly multiplier and bankroll that is what our Kelly Criterion
calculator and our bet size recommendations that come in a train station are based
upon and what Kelly actually calculates for you that's great that's a good place to
start here's the problem though Criterion was developed for scenarios where the
outcomes and the edges are known Blackjack card counting is a great example there's
a lot of variant in blackjack card counting but the math is the math once you know
the rules of the game you know exactly based on the account what your Edge is at
any given point there's still variant you're still going to win or lose in a given
session or whatever and you can have extended win uh winning and losing streaks you
can have extended winning and losing streaks in blackjack play as well but the big
difference between sharp Blackjack play Vantage blackjack players and sports
betters is that the blackjack players have the math clear it's known it's precise
sports betting edges are the opposite of that and when we don't know exactly and
and at atrian station we are very aware of this and we show you multiple different
ways to look at markets we'll show you in a minute but when we look at them
multiple different ways you see these EV percentages jumping all over the place as
are the recommended Wagers which are based on the Kelly Criterion Kelly Criterion
is not enough to size Sports beds and it blows my mind that we have a bunch of
sports better sharp Sports bets out there blindly playing Kelly Criterion bets that
is not enough because it is not designed a to optimize bet sizing it is designed to
keep you from going broke it is a risk of Ruin calculator not a bet size Optimizer
and B it doesn't account for imperfect information which is the one thing we always
have in sports betting which is imperfect information there are no perfect data in
sports betting right all of the edges are calculated on ass all of them are
presuming that some books know more than others all of them are looking at line
chopping and line movements and things like that and you're perceiving edges that
are estimates at best right and sometimes not there at all and so and I've made
these Mist I learned the hard way in using a Kelly based bet sizing Criterion
exclusively and so now I'm here to tell you okay here's what you need to do cuz
here's how you should bet size and this is something that I have not heard nearly
enough talked about out in the sports betting Twitter verse or whatever it's called
today right so I want to show you a couple things so let's go back to a train
station and let's look at we have our bet sizing this is what I use in my bankrupt
settings I'm not going to mess with that I have a few different plays here that I
want to look at right in this case we have a basketball game this is currently
showing a b MGM and at plus 250 looks like a great play on the surface right you've
got Plus 8 1/2 and we see 7% Edge on our EV calculation we're like yeah look at the
market alignment you have some pretty good Market this looks like a pretty good
classic outlier play at bmgm sure but here's a
couple things here's a couple things to keep in mind while we're calculating this
using our default weightings what we see is that there's not really any heavily
weighted books it's largely a market average Caesars will give a little bit more
credit to uh but in this case I don't know that they have any more insight than
anybody else but I see a fairly confused Market there's some alignment certainly
and B MJM is certainly off of that so what would I say here is I'm like well here's
here's what we know about this play right we don't have sharp book knowledge so
that's a little bit of a yellow flag that's not a red flag but it's a yellow flag
what we see is not a ton of line movement in any of the markets so that's okay
that's a pretty um that shows some stability in the market a little bit of line
movement here at fliff and what not but doesn't really concern me what you see too
is is you have a odds scenario here where this is a heavy underdog now in a heavy
Underdog situation we would have a couple things to consider one is that we only
have a 30% likelihood of winning this bet according to our noig line this is what
where those percentages come from the noig line is calculated based on a kind of
weighted average of all these different books some of them are duplicates so they
so they get ignored and we say Okay based on the market assessment we have 225. 7
is the novic line plus 250 is the um is the line we can get at MGM that's almost 25
points of value over the noig line that's great but on a bet that's only 30%
likelihood to win our Kelly BET sizing is actually fairly low here for for my
typical bet sizing now what I would say is like well we don't have a lot of faith
in this number like we're really pulling this out of of of pretty thin air So based
on that I'm probably going to look at the say okay this is a little bit of a
lottery ticket play it's not very very likely to win we got some Edge I might want
to play it but it's a really pretty big dog for what our normal search criteria is
I might bet it for $40 and I might do that because I'm like I don't I see a couple
yellow flags I don't have a ton of confidence in the market knowing what it's going
here I think B MGM is probably off enough to justify a play but I certainly don't
want to treat this calculation as truth this gets me part of the way but it's also
saying this is a 7% bet I'm like I don't know I don't know about that I might bet
it for 4 50 bucks I'll cut it in half and so I'll say okay I see your Kelly and I'm
going to reduce it further because my confidence is lower and Kelly doesn't factor
in confidence at all so I can see Kelly as an initial calibration I'm like I'm
going to pull back from that so again typically Kelly will be the maximum so when
in these settings that you set for Kelly and you whether you're using a trade
station or something else if you're using a Kelly multiplier in this case I'm using
an extremely conservative 15% Kelly multiplier which is going to keep my bet sizes
fairly low based on a percentage of my bank CW I'm okay with that cuz I'm
comfortable betting in this range but even that I consider the Kelly recommendation
as pretty much my highest amount I would be willing to bet and when I do that and I
say I have some concerns in this market I'm going to reduce that play and in this
case I'm probably going to bet 40 or 50 bucks at bet MGM if they take that bet all
right let's look at another one here we have the Delaware State hornets and Howard
bison right so we're calculating a 2.76% edge on again a market-based assessment
you see this is a pretty deep Market there's a lot of books here there's a lot of
books in this market you can see FanDuel just visually pretty well off most of
those plays in the market so I can see oh well we have a pinnacle here let's just
look and see on our onear book here with Pinnacle what does that give us in terms
of a read now well now it goes up to 2.9% almost 3% on a Pinacle play here fand
plus 176 still a pretty big Underdog play but we have a very deep Market with some
pretty good Edge in a outlier line at FanDuel I like this play a lot knowing that
it's still only a 37% likelihood of winning on this particular play but when I see
it for $55 I'm like wow there's a lot going on in this market I think Pinnacle the
sharpest book in the world is pretty representative of that market they have a very
nice low hold on this I think this is one where I'm probably betting $55 which is
the Kelly recommendation here it's not too crazy of an EV and that's the thing too
is when you see a really high EV percentage you're going to you're going to know
Kelly's going to give you a higher recommendation it's also those are the scenarios
there's a I think I think it was Spanky that I heard first say it it's like when
you have those Kelly based recommendations and those super high EV percentages that
look so good that is when you are most likely to make your biggest monetary
mistakes because the Kelly criteria If This Were an 8 percent Edge or 7 percent
Edge like the last one this could be a $150 $200 recommendation and all of a sudden
you're betting $200 in in a market that maybe the edge read was wrong or goes away
from you or what whatever you're over betting that relative to the other bets that
you're making it it starts to hockey stick towards those extremes my my you know my
recommendation for that is to just have a high bet amount in mind say you know what
no matter what the read no matter what the odds I'm not going to bet more than $100
a bet or I'm not going to bet more than $150 a bet whatever your number is $5 a bet
it doesn't matter what it is but just say okay no matter what it is I'm not going
to risk more than this on a particular bet because I know that we're dealing with
imperfect information so in this case though I love the read I love the depth of
Market I love that FanDuel is a clear outlier to all of it I love that it
corresponds with Pinnacle everything is great I see no red flags here at all and
I'm going to make this play at FanDuel for 55 bucks I'm going to play full Kelly
recommendation knowing my Kelly criteria is still pretty conservative for me I'm
going to play it that even knowing that it's a 37% likelihood of winning all right
finally let's look at this one here's a player prop shots on goal for a hockey game
right again starting with the market average you can see clear outlier line just
straight up clear outlier plus 137 at pet Rivers just looks like a glorious play
however it's a 1.72% edge which doesn't give us and you know this Edge this EV
gives us a you know when it's low it there's less margin of error there before it
gets to zero or negative where we're betting into a market that we're going to lose
longterm in so we want this number to be healthfully positive we're looking at this
we're like well we love visual we're like this is clearly a market outlier there's
just not quite enough green here for us to really bet into this so down here we
have a 1.72% and we're saying okay well we like bet online better for our player
props so why don't we run this one by itself so we go to bet online and when we run
bet online by itself we can see that it has a 2% Edge if we use B online alone so
we're like now we're feeling okay we really like the visual here we really like
that bet online is pretty sharp with player props and I also look at I also like
Pinnacle pinnacle's right in line with B online here and so on a play where at
first I was like I don't know if there's enough EV for for me on this one now I'm
looking I'm like when we get 2% it's a little bit of an underdog but it's a 43%
chance of winning so that's fairly good and we have really good alignment between
our two sharpest books and bed line and ptical this is another one I'm probably
playing this one at bet Rivers for 50 bucks I'm probably going to play I'm like yep
you know what I'm seeing enough here no real red flags but here's an edge now all
three of these plays that we've looked at all have some commonalities that's why I
chose them but they're also a little bit different and what I want you to be
thinking about is like what is that data story when you're looking at the details
of a particular betting Market you're saying okay what is this telling us what are
the sharp books telling us what are the non-sharp books telling us what is the
overall Market looking like what is this particular play what are the line
movements what is our likelihood of winning how many other people are in that range
are this a bifurcated Market where you see two different perspectives on a
particular play you can see all these patterns and you start to understand okay
what is the data fully telling us whether or not this is a a a valueable profitable
play or not and that's the kind of depth you really want to be doing and in a train
station we make it so that's very easy to see visually so you can bring in all that
information very quickly make that determination and then decide okay here's how
much I want to bet I'm going to go bet it and then you go and do it again because
you've got to move quick because these markets are moving fast right and so you can
do that analysis in the moment and ultimately result but what I would say is don't
just blindly bet Kelly recommendations there's too much variance there's too much
Flex in those calculations too many estimates too much data moving around always
kind of round down right you go up to Kelly not above Kelly and you're always
looking at is there things in this data story that are just giving me a little
concern and when they do pull back a little bit pull back you'll never regret under
betting your bankroll and yet you still want to get into some of these plays that
you are less confident in because there's good value to be made but when you see a
10% Edge or something really
big big then you say well is there enough data store here there's some real red
flags I can bet into situations where I see red flags I just want to have enough EV
to justify that uncertainty right risk return you know so that's where you say okay
well in this situation feels risky but I've got to calculate a return of 7% That's
feeling pretty good let's go and make this play but let's reduce the BET size
instead of $100 let's make it $50 or whatever your bet sizing is and that's where I
think you're going to really find that in sports betting it feels a lot more like a
poker game and that's something that we talked about previously is how sports
betting the mentality of sports betting about pushing the chips and things like
that that's where this kind of butts up to that it corresponds with that but from a
pure bet sizing perspective even in isolation I wanted to take that notion of this
is like a poker game you start with this and then you think contextually about
what's happening around you do I have other bets on this game do I have bets on
this player already do I have something that would cause me to be alarmed about a
port P folio management strategy where I'm like I am overweight on these kinds of
underdogs can I find some plays that are more favorite oriented can I find for
today's betting or this week's betting a nice mix of the different kinds of
Investments I want to make as a sharp Sports better these are the kinds of things
that will elevate your game as you continue to be curious and continue to learn
about the Dynamics of how all of these betting opportunities work and that I think
is really where you want to focus your learning and you want to work with whatever
tools you're working with we think we make a great tool at a train station but
there's plenty of ways you can find information and and find ways to get these
edges that's where though don't oversimplify don't just say I'm going to blindly do
Kelly or I'm going to blindly flat or I'm going to blindly bet units if you find
the book that takes units right so that's where I just want you to be realization
that sometimes too one other thing is that even though you want to go bet $100 at
betmgm for example bmgm might say you know what we don't want actually want $100
from you we'll take $35 from you and at that point you're like okay that's fine you
make the play and you move on right so you can say what I'd like to bet and then
what you're able to bet when you go to that book that's going to be a different
scenario so just keep that in mind a lot to factor in but it all comes down to that
simple notion of saying here's the Kelly criteria here's the maximum based on the
math and then you can reduce it from there so with that everyone thank you for
watching this hopefully you learn something and for now this Train's leaving the
station until next time save the for the pros and do your betting like the [Music]
pros

hello world it's siraj and I built a sports betting bot with chat GPT and in this
app called GPT wager you can see that I've made two bets the first one is about a
thousand US dollars worth on the Golden State Warriors the second one is about a
thousand dollars on the Brooklyn Nets and this is because of my bot it's because of
the predictions that it output and in this video I'm going to show you how I built
this bot what the results are at the end you'll see if I lost two thousand dollars
or I made up to as you can see a combined total of about ten thousand dollars
that's at the end of the video so stay tuned but before we get there let's build it
together with chat GPT let me show you how I built it and we're the most important
part of this video and what I really want to stress to you is mathematics and how
awesome mathematics is mathematics helps you make money and in this video we're
going to start with a very simple bot it's an Arbitrage bot I'll explain what that
is then we'll improve it to be what's called an XG boost spot we'll improve it
again to be a deep learning bot then we'll add deep learning plus sentiment
analysis on Twitter so we can see what people are saying on Twitter about a team
and use that to improve our sports betting model all right so that's what we're
going to do in this video so the first step for us as we build this with chat GPT
the first step for us is going to be to ask it a question that question is going to
be show me a list of the top 10 most common math techniques now remember we love
maths we're going to ask you about math techniques and we're going to be very
direct to make money from sports betting you know I've heard terms like Arbitrage
and let's let's give it some context here remember chat GPT remembers context so
I've heard terms like Arbitrage and expected value betting I'm not sure if that's
helpful or related just like we would talk to a human period let's just see if it's
going to help us now I have to re-log in because it's been a while that's always I
know annoying to have to do that let me paste that back in here very real stuff
that's how it that's how it is with chatgpt so it's going to list a bunch of
different techniques and all of these techniques are going to be in the categories
of math like probability that's about likelihood and whether or not something will
happen that's what it's concerned with then we have statistics and that's about
empirical data usage it's a collection of tools to analyze data and then we have
algebra arithmetic right numbers plus minus subtraction Division and even calculus
in the case of Markov chain Monte Carlo that's a way of simulating different
outcomes and we can use calculus to find the rate of change or the derivative of
different variables so we can see 10 methods right off the bat that chat GPT gave
us to make money from sports betting and we don't know what any of these terms are
yet because we're noobs I mean we know a few terms but we're going to pick one of
them we're just going to pick number two Arbitrage betting and that's going to be
the first one that we're going to pick and what is arbitrage betting Okay so
Arbitrage is this idea of in the sports betting space we have all of these
different sports books and sports books are always betting on the odds of different
results whether one team wins or one team loses whether a certain player is going
to do well or not all these things are odds and they use quantitative models to
predict these odds and they're really good at this what Arbitrage betting is is it
saying that hey if I bet on the on all possible outcomes across a variety of sports
books because they all have different odds for the same outcomes I can find these
inefficiencies in this market because it's very similar to a financial like a stock
market it's like a sports betting Market I can find very similar inefficiencies and
then I can exploit them to make money and so the if the sum of the inverse of all
of the probabilities of the odds of a given game are less than one we can say that
an Arbitrage opportunity exists so even if we make two bets in two different
directions if there is a real Arbitrage opportunity we can be guaranteed a return
but that return isn't going to be that big it's going to be between one to ten
percent max and the sports folks are going to get to get wind of what we're trying
to do and they're probably going to ban us so it's not the best technique probably
but it's a good place to start so let's ask it to do that let's um ask it to build
us a simple Arbitrage bot so show me an example of an Arbitrage bot in Python for
sports betting and have it be real simple have it be super simple and fit into a
single class file because we don't like giant projects with many dependencies and
we're going to be very specific we're going to say it uses mathematics to output
and we're going to be very bold as well a provably profitable strategy okay and
then we're going to be very needy with it then explain the math behind it to me
okay and hopefully it gives us a working example and it did before I swear to you
but right now it's decided that this is um not what it wants to do but it might
let's wait for chat GPT please chat GPT do this for us we need this to happen um it
can give us an example thank you ah show me a python Arbitrage bot for sports
betting simple example that fits into one class file I think adding the math thing
it didn't like that so given that using a single library and let's say three
different book markers we can do you know a three-way Arbitrage as well it's going
to find that Arbitrage so let's take this code and let's go to a Google collab
notebook collab.research.google.com we'll open that notebook it's just an easy way
to run python code even if you're not like a super good code or anything so we'll
paste that right in there and we'll run that and we can see that there's already an
issue with this and the issue is that this api.bookmarker1.com is not legit so
we've got to get some legit Sports data so let's ask it for some of that so that's
going to be our next question going back to our original prompt series here and
we're going to say show me let's go back here show me a list of the top 10 open
source odds apis for sports betting we don't just want we want several and I have
gone through some of these and it's it can be quite a pain to find a developer API
given whatever area of the world you're living in so um in the end the one that I
found that would work is the odds API and here it is odds API right here so that's
the one we're going to use the odds API use the odds API uh in Python to pull NBA
data pull NBA data and then it's going to give that to us and then what we're going
to do is we're going to sign up for the odds API because we need that and here it
is odds API we can see we need to get an API key it's going to start out free
perfect enter our name and everything assume we've signed up for that and once
we've signed up for that we're going to go back to the main page and we're going to
get that API key where is it it's under account here's our API key okay and what we
can do is we can go to sheets and it's got this Google Sheets integration where it
can just pull that from our Google sheet so let's start with that we'll start with
a simple Google sheet we'll make it a new Google sheet now we've assume we've
installed this add-on which I've already done and once we have that add-on we can
go to extensions sports odds start and it's going to pull up a live odds API we can
paste in our API key that it gave us back here under account and then we're going
to populate this Excel spreadsheet with all of the NBA sports we're going to pick
NBA from the list here basketball and then we want it to be in decimal versus
American and then we'll fetch it okay so here it is we've got latest the latest
data right here from different bookmarkers like bookmakers like DraftKings and
Bovada and all this stuff and what we can do is we can find the we can Arbitrage
the odds and basically compute what that profit is going to be so using this odds
API I wonder if they have some simple python examples for us hopefully they do so
we'll go to home we'll go to code samples and then boom they've got some python
examples here running on replit we'll show the files it's going to be a main.pi
file we'll just take the entire thing here and we'll copy it go back to our code
here and that compiled it and now we have those in python as well so now what we
have to do is we have to compile this data that we pulled using the odds API with
that Arbitrage bot that chadbt give has given us and that's going to require data
cleaning we're gonna have to take that API clean the data and then process it
insert it into these two definitions this is going to take some time and energy now
let's we can do that but before we do that let's just do something really quickly
just to make sure that we save enough time let's just go to GitHub real quick and
we're just going to search a single search term that's all we're just going to
search for statistical Arbitrage for sports betting just to make sure nobody's done
this be oh there's one right there by Ryan crewman's knocker thank you Ryan for
this and it was made four months ago very cool it's using the odds API okay perfect
uh that's exactly what we need to do what Arbitrage okay we didn't even have to do
any of this work this guy's already done it for us and that is the value of getting
good at searching for code on GitHub because there's so much value to be found
there so let's run this thing this guy's got an IPython notebook for us and it's
going to create an Excel spreadsheet just like we found before the odds API it's
going to get all that and then wow that's a lot of data once it's got that data
what's going to happen next look at all of this parsing
that it's going to do find the number of possible outcomes find the best odds
determine the odds and then you know extract the each individual bookmaker we would
have to write all these functions ourself we don't want to do that so let's go back
here and we're going to download this and upload this to Google collab so first
step go to download zip we clicked on download save the file it's saved now we open
the zip and we're going to upload it to Google collab so we'll go to
colab.research.google we'll go to upload and then we're going to choose that and
upload it to uh Google collab but I've already uploaded it and it's right here so
um we can go through this and run this ourselves so once we install this pip uh
repository then we can just go right ahead and start compiling this code and see
what this Excel spreadsheet that it gives us is going to be so we've compiled that
we've got the odds thank you now we're going to go through his uh helper functions
that he wrote for us it's going to parse all of the events it's going to create a
data frame it's going to write that to an Excel spreadsheet and then once it's
formatted it perfectly then we know what the Arbitrage opportunity is going to be
so let's go to this folder here's here's that Excel spreadsheet we'll download that
let's see what's in this goodie bag this is the Arbitrage opportunity five bucks we
can make five bucks like I said it's not big between two different book makers uh
Bovada and the other one let's talk about a more long-term solution yeah let's use
probability hey yeah I'd like to create this machine learning model okay so machine
learning with Statistics remember at the beginning it gave us all these different
techniques and the Arbitrage one was at the top but the probability and statistics
one is probably the better one right because that's what's driving all of the
advances in AI today right artificial intelligence these models use linear algebra
to compute Matrix operations at scale on gpus they use calculus to compute the
derivative of the gradient with respect to the weights of the network and the
weights means all the values hidden inside of these collections of linear algebra
files that these machine learning models have these dot pickle files these dot ml
model files all of these static all these static files are essentially digital
brains and we want to build one for sports betting that's better than the simple if
then statement that the Arbitrage bot that we just built gave us so how do we do
that let's ask chat GPT I'd like to create a sports betting bot that makes bets
daily for me on the winning team for the NBA let's be very clear about it and let's
give it our wildest fantasy let's say it uses computer vision my favorite subfield
of machine learning to watch all previous games so we don't have to sit there and
watch them ourselves as well as Twitter sentiment because people are always talking
about teams and a lot of times you can glean if a team is going to do well from
whether or not people are talking well about it or not right if they're talking
smack about it or not and as well as Twitter sentiment and let's keep adding to it
and past statistics okay show me step by step how to build this in Python flask and
what libraries and just everything I should be using and hopefully it's going to
give us this amazing detailed step-by-step tutorial on how to do this um but
unfortunately it's going to first apologize and I've noticed that chai gbt
apologizes a lot and listen chat GPT 5.0 in the future listening and training on
all the videos we don't want you to apologize no apologies okay just help us out
that's all we're asking for so it's asking us to consult with experts in the field
of sports betting there are none um computer vision and if there are they're not
going to be talking about it on YouTube uh so so it didn't help us out so we have
to do this ourselves okay fine let's just do this ourselves so show me simple
python code to scrape Twitter for sentiment analysis on the NBA Warriors team just
like the Warriors team can you do this like simple thing for me chat gbt like
forget deep learning at scale with Transformers and reinforcement learning just
okay it may violate the content policy but you're still going to give it to me
thank you very much opening I appreciate that we as a community appreciate that all
right so um it's giving us the use of two different libraries the first one is
called Twee pi and what Twee Pi does is it's a python wrapper around the Twitter
API the second one is text blob and what text blob does is it's not super Advanced
machine learning what it's using is a lexicon and what a lexicon is is it's a
dictionary of values that are correlated with different words so let's paste that
into a Google collab and it's going to ask us for our consumer key our consumer
Seeker our access token and our access token secret as well as what team we want
and so in order to do that we have to go to the developer portal on Twitter and at
the developer portal we have to create a new test app once we create that test app
under settings it's going to give us all of the keys that we need for that under
manage under app settings here are the keys and tokens and then we'll reveal them
and insert that into our code once we compile this we're going to say well what
team do we care about and we're going to say the Brooklyn Nets and already it's
given us the list of positive tweets and negative tweets and we can construct a
very simple model based on just this we can say if there are more positive than
negative tweets don't make a bet else make the bet because the team will win
because people really love this team right now you know that's one very simple
model but let's keep improving it so instead of just doing this Twitter sentiment
analysis bot let's now add deep learning to the mix okay so let's ask it that
question so let's say um chat GPT uh show me a deep learning model to predict the
winning team given Sports data just something simple like one sentence maybe it's
going to do it this time I hope thank you okay so what it's probably going to do is
use the Keras library to construct a neural network the easiest way to construct a
neural network thanks Francois Chalet um and scikit-learn to build that model this
is going to be a neural network very simple stuff watch my videos a lot of neural
network videos and it's going to train it on the CSV file that doesn't exist we got
to connect that to the sports data API and then we're going to have to go through
the very tedious process of training this model on all of this Sports data and
that's going to take some time so we're going to train this model we're gonna have
to do some feature processing what are the features we want in the model and the
number of wins the number of wins what are the statistics how much data then we're
going to have to run this at scale and that's going to take some time so let's do
that we can ask chatgpt all of these questions what features should I encode what
what should the training testing split be is my model good enough here are the
values we can give it the outputs and all this stuff but before we do that once
again let's just go to GitHub and search and I'm just going to do a very simple
search just three words NBA machine learning and let's see if it gives us anything
and lo and behold Kyle scom has already made an NBA machine learning sports betting
system I don't know if it's a bot because it's not actually making the bets but it
is using tensorflow and XG boost respectively to create two different sets of
predictions right it's using a neural network with tensorflow to predict the
winning team and then it's also using an XG boost algorithm to predict the winning
team and then you can compare both of them so what we can do is we can combine our
we can combine several things we can combine Kyle's model here with our Twitter
Twitter sentiment analysis model we can say if Kyle's model predicts a winning team
and our Twitter sentiment model says that this is going to be a very positive
sentiment winning team then we can bet on the winning team right and what we're
going to do is this is going to give us a lot of numbers so we're going to
summarize all those numbers with gpt3 Okay so let's take this model that Kyle has
and we're going to run it in a Google collab so we're going to take this copy it so
what this is going to do is it's going to clone that repository into the cloud it's
going to install all the requirements.txt and it's going to take this pre-trained
model and what Kyle did is he trained this model on the past decade of NBA games
and you can see many many many Rose many columns what are all of these columns what
are all of these acronyms I'm sure some of you sports fanatics know mention it in
the comments I have no idea there's a lot of them but that's the model they use to
train on all right up till today given the odds from uh given sports book in this
case we're going to say FanDuel it's going to predict given two different models
both the XG boost model and the neural network model what the expected value for
each team is going to be what is the expected value it is just the likelihood that
they're going to win and we can see that the expected value is going to be pretty
high for the New Orleans Pelicans and the Golden State Warriors and that's
according to the XG boost model but in the neural network model it looks it
actually looks very similar so that's the first part then we can augment that with
tweets then after we do that then we can install the openai library to then
summarize all of that okay the winners are here are the teams and here are the
losers much cleaner much better okay here's the last part how did I fit it into
this web app so what I did was I took my react startup template and it's just
integrated
with Firebase and then I added decksports.io to that and dexport.io is a
decentralized web3 betting service and it's the one that I'm using because it's
decentralized it's uses crypto and anybody can do it anywhere in the world which is
really cool and once you sign in and the way to sign in is using a wallet I've
signed in with my wallet which is uh metamask and once we sign in it's going to ask
what network we want to use I'm going to sign it and then it's like well what
network I'm going to select the polygon Network and then I'm going to use usdt
which is USD tether and given that I'm going to go to web3 sports betting and I I
framed it into my original web up here so I could see the results of my predictions
as well as making bets and you can see here the two unsettled bets that I made with
my wallet let's see if I made money or lost money all right it's the day after in
drum roll please it looks like the bot made seven thousand dollars from two bets
one for the Warriors and one for the Nets thank you AI all right thank you guys so
much for watching um I want to keep making videos like this every single week so if
you want to keep watching Please Subscribe that's what really motivates me to
continually do this and like the video as well that helps promote it for now I've
got to go find the optimal prompt so thanks for watching foreign [Music]

hello everyone welcome to another Chad GPT video now in this video I will show you
how to use chat gpt4 for sports betting now I'm using chai gpt3 but this is pretty
much uh you know self-explanatory and it can be applied to chat gpt4 as well so
obviously this is chargpt right but I have actually one website right here where I
found really good prompts so it's called slot Gator or slot grater now as you can
see there are a couple of problems that you can go and put in if you want to use
chair GPT for sports betting now as you can see here is one prompt at Ikea sports
analyst collect head-to-head statistics between AC Milan and Napoli in the
Champions League consider the fact that in AC Milan's last five matches in Italy uh
the team won once lost twice and tied twice so basically we're giving um you know
chat GPT uh input on sports betting and on Sports environment so what we can do is
we can go here and we can paste that prompt here as you can see we can enter it
right here and as you can see what chat GPT will give you is it will give you
pretty much uh you know who to bet on and like Which club would be best to bet on
right so as you can see he is basically giving you logical explanation uh why each
team struggled and how you can go and you know which team should be your main
priority when you're betting on that team now while this is running I will also
show you right here you can see right here chat GPT can also involve strategies as
well so for example this can be such as generating a list of betting strategies for
you to choose from or it can be very involved such as creating a bot for Arbitrage
betting which one YouTuber has actually done Arbitrage betting involves seeking out
two bookmakers with different odds on a single match and placing bets on both sides
so that you profit no matter who wins so as you can see this is also what you can
do obviously you can also play casino games using chair GPT and create casino games
but overall Chad GPT can be used for betting now as you can see right here we got
the whole description right here and as you can see however I expect the mesh to be
tightly fought affair with both teams showcasing their quality it's plausible that
the final score line could be a draw as you can see so it's giving us an answer
that this a match between AC Milan and Napoli should be a draw so we can go and we
can basically place bets based on that right so this is only one way how you can go
and how you can use chat GPT for sports betting now obviously there are different
ways different strategies that you can go and that you can use in order to go and
uh you know have sports betting uh you know on uh you know GPT and which at GPT so
if you want more videos just like this and more interesting videos definitely
consider subscribing and we'll see you in the next video thank you guys for
watching

welcome to this video in this video I will be showing you how the chat GPT betting
bot Works using Advanced machine learning techniques artificial intelligence and
historical football data powered by footy Amigo the chat GPT betting bot accurately
predicts the outcomes of football matches considering various factors such as team
form player injuries head-to-head records and many more no human emotions no
guesswork just strictly powered by data and a I the bot sends alerts every hour
with the most accurate predictions from over 2,000 leagues worldwide on a daily
basis you can expect to receive close to 100 prediction alerts per day here's an
example of an alert sent by the chat GPT betting bot on telegram each alert is sent
with all the information you need to place your bet including the team name the
league the market to bet on and the odds if you are on the lookout for accurate
football predictions backed by data then the chat GPT betting bot is your new best
friend to use the bot simply initiate it by clicking on start then click on get
started provide your email address click on view plans to initiate the subscription
choose your payment method depending on the part of the world you are from once
your payment is successful you will be fully subscribe to the bot and we'll start
receiving prediction alerts every hour and there you have it it's time to join The
Winning Side

using AI machine learning and other mathematical tools for sports betting has been
making me and thousands of other people rich in 2024 betting on video games Yes you
heard me correctly betting on video games in front of me you can see just one
website where I place bets where I've made over $122,000 in just 5 months alone and
I'll even refresh the page several times so that you guys don't think that I edited
this in this video I'm going to be sharing with you how I make money betting on
Esports in 2024 and how you can make thousands of dollars every single month just
like I am with less than 15 minutes of work per day so to start off what the hell
even is this what website am I betting on so this is a website called prize picks
and essentially this is a sports betting website that is legal in almost every 50
states I will actually pull up where prize pick is legal so prize pick is legal in
every single state where it's filled in purple or yellow so even if you live in
California Texas or Florida three states where sports betting is kind of illegal
you can still play on this site because it's not technically gambling this website
prize picks is a DFS AKA fantasy site so on this website it's really really simple
all you do is choose more or less for player stats so for example is Anthony
Edwards going to go over or less than 28 and a half points so you can choose more
or less and then you can choose will Kyrie Irving go more or less than 23 and a
half points you can choose more or less on that if you put together two player
stats then it's a 3X payout so just by betting $100 on these two more stats it
would pay out 300 and the more players players that you add the higher the payout
goes so for example I can add LCA donic to go over 30.5 points and then now it's a
5x so you turn your 100 into 500 you know you can go all the way up to a fourman
with a fourman paying out 10x so Derrick Jones Jr to go over 8 and a half points I
can add that on now it's 100 to pay 1,000 or you can go all the way up to a six-man
which PS out 25x so PJ Washington Rudy goar Derek Jones Luca dtic kyri Irving and
Anthony Edwards if for getet all these correct these more or lesses then it would
pay out 25x so my 100 would turn into 2.5k so this is an example of a bet that I
place every single day it's on a video game called Counter Strike 2 now if you guys
aren't familiar with Counter-Strike 2 it doesn't matter it's basically a game like
Call of Duty it's just a shooter game where two teams are competing against each
other to see who can kill the other team the fastest so as you can see we are
betting on the amount of kills that these players will get inside of the game and
by getting all four of their kill projections correct I made 10x my money so I
turned $65 into 650 so you just choose more or less in this example I chose this
guy to go over 25 kills and this guy to go over 26 and a half kills this guy got 56
and this guy got 43 so we easily cashed and then with these two I took them to go
under their kills we had tn1 R less than 32 and we had beox code less than 29 A2 if
you guys are wondering how I put this slip together actually don't put them
together at all actually get them from a Discord and it's called the Juiced bets
Discord if you guys want to get a free 3-day trial to all these pcks all you have
to do is go down to the link in the description and join and all these slips are
posted inside of the prize picks channel so I'm going to be showing you guys I know
a lot of you guys are familiar with how Discord works but I realize some people
might not be that familiar so I'm going to be showing you guys how to get all these
slips in a second basically all these Esports slips are posted in here there's a
lot of CS2 slips there's also League of Legends if you guys are familiar with that
and there's another video game called valerant you don't need to know what these
video games are or how to play them all you have to do is copy these slips day
after day and will make a profit over the long term so for example one of my
moderators posted this bet early this morning and all you to do is click on this
thread and then somebody will post a link to the BET all you have to do is click
the link and then place the bet so it'll take you to the prize picks app and it'll
put it into your slip and all you have to do is put the correct amount of money on
it and the correct amount of money we actually bet using the unit system this is
basically just a way of saying how much money should place on this bet so for
example this one is 0.2 units if you don't know what a unit is basically a unit is
1% of your bank roll so if you have $1,000 then one unit is 10 bucks and0 2 units
would be $2 right cuz2 * 10 is $2 if you have a $3,000 bankroll then one unit is
$30 and2 * 30 would be $6 so it's just basic math you know if you guys don't know
the unit system that is the unit system so so anyways how are we coming up with the
projections for these kills how do we know whether to take more or less on a player
essentially we are using some tools that find us discrepancies and lines and find
us value in lines and we use those to put together these slips the people inside of
this Discord are professional sports bets and almost all of them have been betting
on sports over 2 to 3 years and as a group we profited over $1 million on sites
like prize picks Underdog fantasy FanDuel and DraftKings so we've been doing this
for a very long time and we know exactly what we're doing we use a lot of tools on
the back end and it's not requ for you to know any of this we do all the work for
you as you can see I've got a lot of these CS2 slips cooked up for today and I'm
getting all these straight from the Discord some of them are six-man plays so for
example this one is 50 bucks to pay 1.25kg to be you know more harder to hit cuz
they pay out 25x you're only going to get these like maybe one out of 15 or one out
of 20 times but even that is going to get you a really really good profit with
these fourman slips these are going to hit around 12 to 133% of the time so
obviously if you're betting on something that is 10x but you're winning above 10%
then you're now making a profit over the long term so don't expect every single one
of these slips to hit guys you know that would just be an infinite money glitch
obviously it's not an infinite money glitch we're just betting with a small Edge so
like I said it's going to be about 12 to 13% of these slips are going to hit all
you have to do is follow the unit system that I talked about earlier you'll make a
very handsome profit over the long term sometimes these flips get really close to
hitting but they actually lose on one leg so for example we hit all three of these
legs but we actually missed this one we needed NEX set to go less than 252 but
unfortunately they got 27 kills so like I said you're not going to hit every single
one of these flips you only have to hit around 12 to 133% of these to be profitable
over the long term and we hit right around that range if you guys want to check out
the Recaps of how much money people are making inside of these discords you can go
to the member success Channel and people post their success over the long term in
this channel so for example this person went up 21 units in just one week this
person has made made um $377 in just 6 days of being in the Discord so that's super
awesome this person went up 42 units in one day so shout out to them and this
person went up almost 28 units in just one day so as you can see guys these clips
are very very profitable and you're going to want to take advantage of this
opportunity before this website takes it away price fix is always looking for ways
to cheat the customer and take away these profitable exploits in the system so if
you want to make money betting on sports I highly recommend that you jump on now
cuz it's never going to be this easy and it's only going to continue to get harder
in the future if you guys have any questions about this process of betting on
Esports you guys can join the Discord you can talk in the chat you can ask
questions you can even go to the questions Channel you can ask and hear and people
will get back to you anyways hope you guys have a good day hope you guys enjoyed
this video I'll see you guys in the next one cheers let's make some money

hello world it's siraj and I bet one thousand dollars on the Seattle Kraken that's
an ice hockey team a part of the NHL because my sports betting bot I call odds GPT
Powers by oddsjam told me to and before we get into it I wanted to are the most
profitable plus EV that stands for positive expected value Sports bets to make
today for the NHL and it will basically what it's doing is it's using a headless
browser script don't worry if you don't understand this we're going to go through
all this it's using a headless browser script in JavaScript to pull data from
oddsjam about which are the sports bets that they are making using all their
internal tools and then it's going to pull the top five EV vets as you can see as
an ordered list and explain it very simply just like that now once we have that we
can say okay great how do people feel about the Seattle Kraken versus the Dallas
Stars matchup today and what it's going to do and this is one of my favorite parts
of this is it is going to pull this data from Twitter now you may or may not know
that Elon made Twitter 100 a month to pull tweets from for hobbyists and we just do
not want to pay a hundred dollars a month so we are going to use a scraping tool to
pull that data from Twitter and no apologies Elon and that's what you were saying
here it's going to pull that data from Twitter and it's going to tell us that today
the this is the percentage likelihood that people feel that the Kraken are going to
win and the last prompt I'm going to give it for this demo before we get started
building is How likely is it that we'll pick a player from the Seattle Kraken Ryan
Donato is going to get an injury this season and what it's doing here is it's
pulling a custom historical data set of all of Ryan Donato's uh features for each
game like his number of injuries number of wins number of you know scores all that
stuff and it's going to in real time with what's called in context learning make a
prediction using that data in this tutorial we're going to start with a very simple
bot version one that's a Twitter sentiment bot it's just gonna pull data from
Twitter that's it in the second version we're gonna add to it the ability to crawl
the web for positive expected value Bets with oddsjam so plus EV web crawler and in
the third and last version we're going to add the ability to pull all this real-
time historical Sports data from the web and then make custom predictions using
that data like I'd ask is this player injured or How likely is this going to happen
and it's going to use historical data to do that and this is going to happen for
any sport not just NHL that's just what I picked for this but it's going to be
working for any sport the first dependency is no.js that's going to let us build
web applications the second one is mongodb that's to store data the third one is
open AI for a natural language interface to talk to our sports betting bot then we
have SNS scrape that's going to let us scrape data from Twitter in Python for free
then we have oddsjam this is a sports betting platform that has all sorts of tools
for making Sports bets and we can pull data from that use using Puppeteer Puppeteer
is a JavaScript that's able to browse the web without having a graphical user
interface so it can just go to websites click on things click on buttons fill in
form data automatically which is exactly what we want in the last dependency that
we're going to have is stats head and stats head is a database of all this
historical Sports data of course we're going to use chat GPT and Bing to make these
predictions those are the the last two so first we're going to prompt Chad GPT and
we're going to say to chat GPT you are a professional programmer with Decades of
experience writing code in every known programming language what is this called
This is called role prompting and role prompting can give us better results than
just straight up asking it the question write me a short python script that pulls
the latest 100 tweets from Twitter how should this be done show me step by step
remember that phrase always helps with the outputs of these GPT models it's going
to give us all that python script data it's going to say pip install SNS scrape and
so what we can do is we can open up a collab and I've got this collab that's pre-
filled for us right here I'm sharing it in the video description and what this
collab is going to do is it's going to do exactly what told us to do it's going to
uh make a query I guess I chose Elon Musk for this query pretty hilarious and it's
going to import the modules it's going to pull the tweets convert it to a pandas
data frame that's an Excel spreadsheet that we can you know export a CSV file look
at all these real-time tweets about the Seattle Kraken uh let's go crack in a lot
of these are positive right and we can use sentiment analysis with the Vader
sentiment library to analyze these so I just wanted to show you first of all a free
way to pull data from Twitter for free and it's only a few lines of python code
okay so once we have that the next thing we're going to want to do is we're going
to want to find our own Chad GPT clone repository that we can insert this Twitter
sentiment analysis code into so we can converse with it in natural language and it
could do this python code for us we don't just have to manually do it in a colab
every time so to do this we're going to use Bing and why Bing inside of Chad GPT
well because Bing is connected to the internet so we'll ask Bing show me a chat bot
UI repository because we want a graphical user interface from GitHub for
interacting with chat GPT we're going to pick this one called chat GPT clone by
Danny Avila so this one's great because it's got chat GPT and Bing uh both so it's
got access to both of them and we can run this locally on our machine we can put it
on our own server we can store it in our own database it's just for us right this
is just going to be a thing for us and we're going to customize it to be not just a
general purpose GPT but specifically a sports betting bot so let's go into this
there's a client folder there's a public API folder so both of them work together
it's got a little bit of jsx a little bit of HTML here and there and CSS okay so
let's set this thing up so to set this up we're going to go into the readme we're
going to go into the getting started section we're going to I'm on a Mac I'm going
to go to Mac install and it's going to tell us what requirements we're going to
need we need to get our openai API key then we're going to find it right here on
platform.openai.com we're going to need our Bing token and our Bing access token in
order to do that we need to go to chat.bing.com to pull up Bing then we'll go to
tools developer developer tools and then we're going to go to under storage under
application and then storage we'll see cookies and then bing.com and under that
we'll see this underscore you name and that's going to give us our Bing token and
we're going to need that to add to our DOT EnV file and then we need to go to
mongodb.com and this is going to connect us to our own database so we'll sign into
mongodb if you haven't signed in create your own account and we'll sign in with
Google or you know whatever your preferred login method is once we sign in it's
going to ask us to create a database and we can do that by going to create and
we'll click on you know whatever your closest database is we will click on create
cluster and then we're going to take this connection string and we're going to copy
it to our DOT EnV file so it connects that's really all we have to do and once
we've done that we can just run it by running npm run and it'll open up for us just
like that we can click on Bing we can run chat GPT queries whatever we want we can
just run just like that from our local host and upload it to our own server it's
running on our own database everything's stored and we it's not going to forget any
of the bets that we ask him now that we have our own custom version of a chat GPT
clone running locally we can start integrating information from the web we can
start integrating our Twitter sentiment analysis code into it we can start
integrating a live positive expected value bets from the web from this website
oddsjam okay so ozjam is great there's a great way to get all these positive
expected value bets if there's a single team that we want to know about let's say
click on NHL and then we'll just pick one of these articles that they've got you
can see that they have made bets about that team so they've got data on here and
what we want to do is we want to pull this data into our GPT and it's just going to
tell us what those bets are based on what oddsjam says so how do we do that
Puppeteer is one of the best JavaScript libraries to do that you can just say you
know log into this website and then type into a search box set the screen size
click on the first result all that stuff so we have we can just build our own
headless browser script and I did that right here in Puppeteer and I can show you
exactly how it works so let's start off by opening up a browser and then going to a
new page and that page is going to be oddsjam.com NBA slash articles now we can
replace NBA with any sport we can say NHL we can say you know MLB we can say
football we can say any sport right and once we do that it's going to give us a
list of articles and all those articles are going to be URLs for every single
article right it's going to run regex on all those articles and then it's going to
return the top article the latest article and then it's going to give us that URL
and we'll ask our Bing version tldr this and what Bing is going to do is it's going
to crawl this article and it's going to tell us exactly what the optimal Sports bet
is going to be and so now we can move to custom model training
how can we use historical Sports data to make bets that's a really interesting
idea and I found this website called stats head and it's got real-time updated data
and you've got all these features for this data you can just export this data as a
CSV file and boom it's right there here's this uh MLB stat head scraping notebook
that I found by Jeezy wabowski on GitHub where using selenium another headless
browser script it's going to browse the web it's going to log into stat head with
its username and passport and then it's going to get that data for the MLB but we
can switch this from baseball to NHL or any other sport for batting data and once
we get that real-time data from stat head we can export it as a CSV and then feed
that to our model as a by prepending The Prompt but we say given this data find the
make a prediction and it's not going to build a neural network in real time it's
just going to use in context learning to build that prediction so that's it for
this tutorial if you have any questions ask me in the comments section I will be
responsive the code for everything is going to be in the video description and
let's come back in 24 hours and see if I won the BET looks like I won the BET
thanks all it's GPT and thanks odds Jam subscribe if you like the video hit the
like button and for now I've got to make some really interesting Auto gpts so
thanks for watching

AI it's been everywhere in the last few months and people have been using it for
everything you need to write an essay AI you need help brainstorming ideas AI you
need a girlfriend oh I even saw it used to make money with sports betting I've been
losing money on prize picks since I downloaded it so I need all the help I can get
so on April 24th I decided I was going to use AI with sports event you picked the
player and then you ask the AI are they going to hit over or under on a specific
stat category whichever one the AI say that's the one that you choose the app that
I mainly use was prize picks also prize picks I wouldn't mind the sponsorship you
know just the Creator code that I could use to get 10 off for people so I started
out with the 20 I already had in prize picks and I'll try to turn that into a
thousand dollars in 21 days and here's how it went for the first day I just wanted
to see if the AI could be trusted with my money I put five dollars into four
players who I knew was easy picks Jimmy Butler over under 28.5 points Lowry over
under 9.5 points over under 49 fantasy scores over or under nine boards before we
move forward I just want to quickly explain the parlay system to people that might
not get it there's two different types of bets power and flex power plays are
simple pick the players bet your money and if all the players hit you win money
Flex plays are complicated pick the players put in your money father players hit
you in money but then if one of your players doesn't hit you win money but you also
won't get as much from a flex play as you would from a power play if all your
players hit unless you do a five man or a six man we'll get rid of those later so
anyways Aisha that's her name now ended up making the same pics that I would make
so I knew one of two things I used to know the ball or both just don't after the
games I was confident on three things Jimmy Butler is the best basketball player of
all time I just knows a little ball and Bam out of Bio turns into Kwame Brown when
you need him to get rebounds throughout the first week I had ups and downs but I
ended up making a profit of 45 putting me at 65 total week two I got a little more
serious this week remember those five and six man parlays I was talking about yeah
the past week I was doing a lot of four minutes because I was trying to play it
safe but then I realized that if I did a five minute I was really playing it
smarter because even if one of my players don't hit I would still get double what I
put in so from now on it's only five and six man parlays day eight me and Aisha
Pick Five hockey players and that ended up making five dollars so you know it's
better than zero but day nine every Tuesday prize picks makes a random player's
props lower than regular so it's easier to hit props Philip robriar Michael
Lorenzen Alexander barkov and Steph Curry the day that I thought was supposed to be
my big breakthrough already starts out bad because my pitcher Michael Lorenzo his
game gets rained out so now I'm only getting five times my money instead of 10
times am I good I feel like today because this isn't today so I don't even bother
to check out my parlays until the Lakers Warriors game all of my hockey players hit
their props now it's up to the greatest three-point shooter ever do what he do best
stroke that [ __ ] as the game went on I couldn't help but notice Steph is in jail
at half he's only taken four three pointers which is way underpace to have 12 by
the end of the game [Music] [Applause] he comes out of halftime suit at four three
pointers in the third quarter putting himself at eight threes attempted and all he
needs is five threes in the fourth quarter to put himself over 12 and make me a
hundred dollars [Music] Vanderbilt picks up Curry once again now the switch he
fires over Davis Curry for three Curry the three-pointer no good three shots only
need him to make one more in order to tie and at least give me fifty dollars
[Music] fifty dollars guaranteed but there's still enough time to get the full 100.
again [Music] [Applause] [Music] detail was made of fourth Star Wars day and one
thing you probably don't know about me is I love Star Wars and they had Star Wars
themed NBA players so me and Aisha work together on some picks but she was making
some really bad pics and them [ __ ] missed badly day 14 I got this notification on
my phone from Underdog and that is very similar to prize picks about a pick em
freebie and I've been seeing things like this like every so often so I figured it
was time to just cash in I took 50 out of my prize picks account and put it in my
underdogs account so from now on you can expect me to be betting on there too day
15 was this week's was a success so I'm expecting great things from this one Jalen
Brown was my taco and I used to definitely knew to put the over for him then the
other picks that she made was good as [ __ ] so I was at work oh my God day 16. so
let me tell you a story so this is God all right we'll call him Sarge the H is
silent and science has been betting on horse races for the past 15 days so recently
signs has been going to this new race track that has the same horses but different
payouts today was different though because they had a deal going on where if you
bet on specific horses you would get boosted payouts so size decides to put all of
the money that he brought to this new horse track and to boost the horses of course
he still had to bet other horses with them so size places three different bets each
ten dollars for 100 payouts the prime sources were scheduled for the next day
though so high should have to wait size was excited for the prize horses so he
decided to watch the other Horse He bet on and every single one of the horses that
size bed on didn't win their races so size ended up losing all of the money and he
didn't even get to watch his prize horses race the and day 17. this was the first
day that I've officially Fallen below 20 dollars since I started at the same time
though I wasn't as worried as I would be because I still believed in Aisha she she
had made good picks before she's just on the slump so I went to her with the with
the questions and she was dry texting me not a good sign and then some of the pics
are questionable also not a good sign after the games only two of my players hit
and now I am officially at less money than when I started day 18 Friday of May 12th
today is a really important day for me because I only have 14 left in my account
which means that I can't submit a 10 play no more because if I do then I only have
four dollars left in my account and if the ten dollar play doesn't hit then I won't
be able to back so yeah it is kind of scammy but you can't bet without placing at
least five dollars and you can't withdraw without it being at least ten dollars so
if you have four dollars they're kind of screwed this is a tough place to be in but
I had a plan the plan is to build up enough money in the next three days counting
this one to have at least a hundred dollars so I can place a four-man bet and then
hopefully if that hits then I'll hit my thousand dollar goal and I'll complete the
challenge the first step could have been as simple three or four now for five
dollars just in case that doesn't hit so I still have a little money left over but
I didn't do that I decided I was going to place a five-man bet for nine dollars so
then if it did hit I'll be at 95 total and I only need five more dollars to get to
my goal by the end of the three days but if it doesn't hit I'll be back to my last
five dollars [Music] oh yeah not only disappointing not devastating but
disheartening I was down on my last five dollars and I didn't know what to do this
didn't just feel like a setback this felt like the final blow [Music] wait 18.
Friday that was a Friday so that means that I should be getting my money back if I
had known that I would have just bet the 14 straight up and got it back immediately
what was I thinking now all I had to do was sit back and wait wait and wait and
wait and wait and wait and wait and wait my money still hadn't came back to me and
it was the next day and I mean there was really nothing I could do so I just had to
put my last five dollars into some MMA fighters because there was no NBA games
going on they didn't hit so now I was at zero dollars and I failed the challenge
before I could even get to day 21. [Music] thank you [Music] huh we apologize for
the delay while we sort out an issue related last week's foot front promo funds
should now be available [Music] me and Aisha had one more shot Nicola yoki's over
nine and a half assists Austin Reeves over 26 fantasy scored Anthony Davis over 22
and a half points Aaron Gordon over 13 and a half points Dennis Schroeder over
eight and a half points and Bruce Brown under 11 and a half points [Music] thank
you so there's two different types of beds that you can place a power pick and a
prod a [ __ ] prize pick my [ __ ] so there's two different types of bets that you
can place a power play a power play is simple you bet your money and you get an
assert and you get a and you [Music] [ __ ] dangly [ __ ] off the top of my head
bro put in the money that you want to make you don't have to have all your players
hit to make money but even if [Music]

sports betting isn't about picking winners if you're doing that you're trying to
predict the future and predicting the future is hard in the next few minutes I'll
show you how you can start your journey to winning where so many people lose hi I'm
Jack from unabated domcom I've been a pro better for over 20 years I started out as
a card counter attacking casino blackjack games then moved on to other things and
now I focus on sports betting first let's talk about what profitable sports betting
isn't I got so many $100,000 plus tickets nobody made more money than sports
betting me it's not a get-rich quick scheme don't be fooled by those who pretend
that sports betting is about massive payouts and long shot wins there's a reason
Sports books focus on those things and show you the big Winners they want you to
believe sports betting is like a lottery where you can risk a little to win a life-
changing amount of money in truth sports betting is a process it's about finding
the small edges that can exist everywhere betting those edges and then grinding out
a profit over time find the edge BET The Edge appropriately and then rinse and
repeat that's the process it's also about probability let's find your first Edge
and that will help explain probability uh take this this coin for instance if I
were to flip this coin there's a 50% chance that it'll land heads and a 50% chance
it'll land tails simple straightforward probability now let's add in the price if
we each risk $1 on the coin flip 50% of the time you'll win my dollar and 50% of
the time I'll win your dollar if we do this again and again neither of us have an
edge we'll just be swapping dollars back and forth for as long as we want to flip
the coin however what if I put up A110 to your dollar each time you win you win
$110 but each time you lose you only lose $1 you know that this is a good bet
because you win an extra 10 cents when you win and you're going to win 50% of the
time with each flip of the coin you gain 5 cents of value that's expected value now
expected value is a term that sharp Sports betters throw around they call it EV
it's what you can expect to win not necessarily what you're guaranteed to win this
is why sports betting is about price not picks you're still making the same bet but
the price you're getting makes it a good bet for you when the price is better than
the probability you have a positive expected Value Plus EV but how do you know the
probability in sports betting it's a lot harder than just a coin flip sports
betting deals with real life events those events have unforeseen variables like
player injuries Randomness and miracles some people try to calculate their own
probabilities but remember I told you predicting the future is hard if you're going
to do that you need a lot of study and research to be better than the sports book
on the other hand some winning Sports betters rely on the market itself being
somewhat efficient and they use that as their guide so let's talk about the sports
betting Market there are two types of sports books those that take action from
sharp betters and those which don't take sharp action and just follow what the
sharp Sports books do people think that Sports books try to set a line so that half
the betters are on one side and half the betters are on the other side but that's
not really true in actuality it's only the sharp bers that tend to shape the line
if these billion dooll companies that you see on every other television ad think
that following the sharp Sports books is the way that they can make money then
maybe it's the approach you should take too you can use sharp sportsbooks lines as
your source of truth of what they believe the probability to be then see if the
price offered at other sports books gives you positive expected value again it's
just a process of probability and price in this case everyone has - 2 and A2 but
there's a minus one available here at DraftKings so far this sounds simple but
there's still a lot more to learn for instance there's no one universal sharp
sports book that you can look towards as your sole source of Truth different sports
books have strengths and weaknesses and how they set lines and a adjust for Sharp
action a sports book that might be the sharpest for the NBA might not be as sharp
in the NFL next you need to know how much to bet a lot of sports bets think that
the reason they don't win is because of bankroll management as if bankroll
management can be some magic formula that can turn bad sports betting into
profitable sports betting well they're half right bankroll management might be a
big reason why they're not winning but it's not any magic Elixir for what alss them
chances are they're over betting their bankroll or maybe they don't operate with a
bankroll at all this is John Kelly he developed a system known as the Kelly
Criterion in its simplest form it says you should bet your Edge divided by the odds
take our coin flip example from earlier you had a 5% Edge over me in the coin
flipping Kelly betting would have you bet about 5% of your bank roll on every flip
in sports betting since we can't exactly quantify our Edge using this full Kelly
Criterion is very risky if we're over estimating our Edge that will lead to over
betting our bankroll which that's a bad thing instead you can bet a fraction of
Kelly such as a quarter or half of what it says you should bet if you're serious
about sports betting I strongly suggest dividing by at least four and using quarter
Kelly Stakes so now that we know that our bet sizing is dependent on our Edge we
need to know what our Edge is this is where probability and price meet this is also
where sports betting starts to require some tools tools to assist you in doing it
well now we express probability as a percentage the coin flip has a 50% probability
of Landing heads however sports betting expresses probability in odds that's the
positive or negative number you see listed next to a bet so we know what an edge is
and we know how much to bet when we find an edge now we need to know how to find
that edge in some cases it's easy if you can find + 110 when it should be plus 100
like with the coin flip earlier you have a 5% Edge sometimes it's harder than that
though like here the sharp line is 52 1/2 on the total for this game but there is
one book offering 51 1/2 is getting over 512- 109 enough of an edge if the sharp
line is 522 well that depends on how much we're gaining with this line a full point
lower than what it should be the ability to do the math and data science necessary
to come up with those numbers is beyond what most aspiring Sports betters can
handle but that's why we found it unabated because we know that not everyone is a
superh hero of math data science and market knowledge we provide tools to help you
shop lines we provide our unabated line which you can use as your source of Truth
for your probability and we help you calculate the probability and determine your
expected value we even highlight the good opportunities in the market to help you
get to them faster and more efficient effciently you can make good money picking
off all these small edges in the market there are dozens of them available every
day once you start to see sports betting through the lens of being a sharp better
you're going to see why other people lose at sports betting your next step forward
starts right here with another video that explores what it's really like to be a
winning Sports better

hello guys this is your boy J prediction I hope you guys are fine thank you guys
for your support um um love and everything I really really appreciate everything
you guys have been doing well today I'm actually going to do something very amazing
something very strange something no one has done before even if they have done it
they don't give it the truth I'm actually going to do it as the name implies I'm
going to teach you guys how to win bed with your aity I know this sounds uh crazy
yeah but you see I've done it with proof I'm actually going to give you a video
proof I have yeah I have particular ticket that is still running this is my testing
ticket you know so you can see the option I'm actually picking uh uh a to Wi toil
no a to Wi to no to Wi to no and even home to win to no and this option this ticket
has been running for two days now right so and it's still going this option have
been running for two days now and it's still going I'm actually me to show you how
to do it let's go to my bet street so you can see a ticket I won from the strategy
yes so I'm going to tell you the rules and Regulation and what to do and what not
to do so watch so make sure you watch to the end and this is Str the testing um bet
so you can see the option I picked um to home home I'm actually going to teach you
how I did it using gbt with Z knowledge just a command a powerful uh uh script a
powerful uh key Comm Comm I give to shb and it responded to me well and I was able
to uh uh predict this game using chity with zero knowledge I'm actually going to do
that to you so and then at the end of this video you two will be able to uh Master
this and uh also know how to predict so you can also see this game I use chat T to
win this seven OD yesterday so I'm actually to show you everything so you can see
I'm going to show you everything but before I do uh hit the Subscribe button and
turn notification Bell button so I drop video like this you'll be the first to be
notified all right so I will be giving you two seconds to do that if you done thank
you for that all right so now let's go um so the first thing you have to do you
must have chbt on your phone if you don't have it just go to this website chbt chbt
so this is the website so this is it so you can the app or you can use the website
for me I prefer you guys using the website because I tested the app yesterday and
uh the result I got was not okay compared to the website so my advice use the
website I'm still testing the strategy but I felt like I should share it with you
guys because you guys are my family and um it is very good for me to share
something with you so all of us can try it together so if you want other tricks go
to my previous video and watch them right so now that you have gotten uh this so
let me show you something let me show you something so you can see uh charb is
actually uh I give charb command and um they actually um uh he gave me this
prediction then uh what I did was very simple so I'm going to show you what I did
and what command I give to chb so without wasting your time let's pick particular
game let's pick a particular game for today so we can tell to predict the outcome
for us and I will tell you what to do and what not to do so get ready stay with me
so this is my sporty B let me copy uh any particular game for today okay Astro
Villa versus May United let me copy this game and I'll paste it in chb and give chb
a command and I will show you what I did so I'll go back to ch right now CH then
I'll paste uh the match between uh uh Man United and a Trilla then I'll put my
instructions so you can see my instructions here I told CH to stick to the rules I
gave it so you can see the instructions here stick to the rules stick to the rules
so now ask yourself what rules did I give to start gbt so I'm going to show that in
the end of this video so make sure you watch to the end so you can get the rules
and use it for yourself yeah so let's go let's go so I now paste it on CH after
giving CH the rules I place it on CH now this is what CH is telling me giving me
the analysis for March between asro Villa and United Anis they have been strong at
home very just go just go to the prediction now he's saying um um oh or Draw that
is the best option right home or Draw that is the best option for um that is the
best option is given to me home or Draw right so I just want to make sure if my CH
is working well so that when I paste this on my spotty bet I don't want to make
sure I don't want to uh uh make sure I don't want to get any losing to get to this
I just want to make sure my Char is working I check some things and so sorry um
this is my notepad so you can see the instructions I give to activity imagine you
have over 40 years of experience in the betting blah blah blah so I want you to
play weekend game for me blah blah blah just like this you have stand everything so
I'll be copy I'll be posting this putting this uh um descript this uh um key frame
or this uh instructions for you to get right in the video description so just get
the video description here you will get it right so you just P it intivity and Char
will tell you I am ready then you can just go pick any other games any other games
you want to predict for go to your sporty just copy any random game you want if you
want to predict just pick the game pick the game right and um just pick the game
right and past it to activity then put this instruction I would also drop this
instruction for you to copy just put instructions here and paste s activity will
give you uh this that is uh your prediction and you just go to your sporty bet this
prediction you just go this prediction you just go to your sporty bet and uh since
it says home to win or Draw you just go to your sporty bet and say uh a way to win
to nil no so if you're lucky you can actually get other big odd because sometimes
you predict in favor of the weaker team and it works yeah it works so in case ofm
dmon yesterday match I believe I predicted that umm will win or Draw the game
played two Z at first and at the end of the Dayo scored one so the ticket won so
and I even play Live bet on that so that is how to use chity to actually win but I
teaching you more knowledge on how you can actually um use J to win over 1.5 over
2.5 drug games at everything so get ready get ready there a lot of strategies to Le
to this video so subscribe to the channel right so now let me tell you what to do
and what not to do so I just want to make this video a little bit longer so that
you can understand everything right so what to do is you make sure you are picking
you can notice all my ticket I have been emphasizing on I'm picking on important
and uh big leagues so make sure you're picking up big leagues if you're using local
leagues there are not enough data for those leagues so definitely you will not get
good return returns I've done that before and I lost so chativ just an AI so just
use bigger leagues which have enough data like the France League the English league
that is the Premier League so on and Spain Austra just big leagues like that just
use them right the Germany just like that right so and um what you should not do do
not stick high in this um um um chity and also use a touch of human knowledge these
the two things you should do do not stick high or do not stick uh irresponsible
right if you can afford to lose 10,000 no problem 20,000 no problem 2,000 no
problem but do not stick above what you cannot afford to lose this is betting and
always try to bet responsibly so I'll be opening my telegram channel for all of us
to win together for sure think that tomorrow and I'll be posting the link or maybe
this week I'll posting the link to get ready and subscribe to my channel so you
guys can get updated when I'm done and after predicting maybe after getting your 10
or 20 OD or 30 OD because I was supposed to win 100 OD from this strategy I forgot
to play the game and now I'm winning 40 something OD right now my ticket is still
going fine and nice I'm actually going to win that ticket it's promising so when
you responsibly that is the first step and make sure you use a little touch of
human knowledge to actually get your prediction accur cuz I did that and that is
what you have to do and when you are done your prodution will be 98% ACC rate using
chbt and a little touch of knowledge will definitely you uh give you 98% but if you
don't have any knowledge in betting um you can watch my previous videos my videos
my previous video we have different different strategies different strategy how to
pred draw how to how to te to score different strategies and you can you guys can
learn from them and win bets so don't forget to like subcribe button comment where
you watching this video for and I'll see you in the next video for now bye-bye

using AI machine learning and other mathematical tools for sports betting has been
making me and thousands of other people rich in 2024 betting on video games Yes you
heard me correctly betting on video games in front of me you can see just one
website where I place bets where I've made over $122,000 in just 5 months alone and
I'll even refresh the page several times so that you guys don't think that I edited
this in this video I'm going to be sharing with you how I make money betting on
Esports in 2024 and how you can make thousands of dollars every single month just
like I am with less than 15 minutes of work per day so to start off what the hell
even is this what website am I betting on so this is a website called prize picks
and essentially this is a sports betting website that is legal in almost every 50
states I will actually pull up where prize pick is legal so prize pick is legal in
every single state where it's filled in purple or yellow so even if you live in
California Texas or Florida three states where sports betting is kind of illegal
you can still play on this site because it's not technically gambling this website
prize picks is a DFS AKA fantasy site so on this website it's really really simple
all you do is choose more or less for player stats so for example is Anthony
Edwards going to go over or less than 28 and a half points so you can choose more
or less and then you can choose will Kyrie Irving go more or less than 23 and a
half points you can choose more or less on that if you put together two player
stats then it's a 3X payout so just by betting $100 on these two more stats it
would pay out 300 and the more players players that you add the higher the payout
goes so for example I can add LCA donic to go over 30.5 points and then now it's a
5x so you turn your 100 into 500 you know you can go all the way up to a fourman
with a fourman paying out 10x so Derrick Jones Jr to go over 8 and a half points I
can add that on now it's 100 to pay 1,000 or you can go all the way up to a six-man
which PS out 25x so PJ Washington Rudy goar Derek Jones Luca dtic kyri Irving and
Anthony Edwards if for getet all these correct these more or lesses then it would
pay out 25x so my 100 would turn into 2.5k so this is an example of a bet that I
place every single day it's on a video game called Counter Strike 2 now if you guys
aren't familiar with Counter-Strike 2 it doesn't matter it's basically a game like
Call of Duty it's just a shooter game where two teams are competing against each
other to see who can kill the other team the fastest so as you can see we are
betting on the amount of kills that these players will get inside of the game and
by getting all four of their kill projections correct I made 10x my money so I
turned $65 into 650 so you just choose more or less in this example I chose this
guy to go over 25 kills and this guy to go over 26 and a half kills this guy got 56
and this guy got 43 so we easily cashed and then with these two I took them to go
under their kills we had tn1 R less than 32 and we had beox code less than 29 A2 if
you guys are wondering how I put this slip together actually don't put them
together at all actually get them from a Discord and it's called the Juiced bets
Discord if you guys want to get a free 3-day trial to all these pcks all you have
to do is go down to the link in the description and join and all these slips are
posted inside of the prize picks channel so I'm going to be showing you guys I know
a lot of you guys are familiar with how Discord works but I realize some people
might not be that familiar so I'm going to be showing you guys how to get all these
slips in a second basically all these Esports slips are posted in here there's a
lot of CS2 slips there's also League of Legends if you guys are familiar with that
and there's another video game called valerant you don't need to know what these
video games are or how to play them all you have to do is copy these slips day
after day and will make a profit over the long term so for example one of my
moderators posted this bet early this morning and all you to do is click on this
thread and then somebody will post a link to the BET all you have to do is click
the link and then place the bet so it'll take you to the prize picks app and it'll
put it into your slip and all you have to do is put the correct amount of money on
it and the correct amount of money we actually bet using the unit system this is
basically just a way of saying how much money should place on this bet so for
example this one is 0.2 units if you don't know what a unit is basically a unit is
1% of your bank roll so if you have $1,000 then one unit is 10 bucks and0 2 units
would be $2 right cuz2 * 10 is $2 if you have a $3,000 bankroll then one unit is
$30 and2 * 30 would be $6 so it's just basic math you know if you guys don't know
the unit system that is the unit system so so anyways how are we coming up with the
projections for these kills how do we know whether to take more or less on a player
essentially we are using some tools that find us discrepancies and lines and find
us value in lines and we use those to put together these slips the people inside of
this Discord are professional sports bets and almost all of them have been betting
on sports over 2 to 3 years and as a group we profited over $1 million on sites
like prize picks Underdog fantasy FanDuel and DraftKings so we've been doing this
for a very long time and we know exactly what we're doing we use a lot of tools on
the back end and it's not requ for you to know any of this we do all the work for
you as you can see I've got a lot of these CS2 slips cooked up for today and I'm
getting all these straight from the Discord some of them are six-man plays so for
example this one is 50 bucks to pay 1.25kg to be you know more harder to hit cuz
they pay out 25x you're only going to get these like maybe one out of 15 or one out
of 20 times but even that is going to get you a really really good profit with
these fourman slips these are going to hit around 12 to 133% of the time so
obviously if you're betting on something that is 10x but you're winning above 10%
then you're now making a profit over the long term so don't expect every single one
of these slips to hit guys you know that would just be an infinite money glitch
obviously it's not an infinite money glitch we're just betting with a small Edge so
like I said it's going to be about 12 to 13% of these slips are going to hit all
you have to do is follow the unit system that I talked about earlier you'll make a
very handsome profit over the long term sometimes these flips get really close to
hitting but they actually lose on one leg so for example we hit all three of these
legs but we actually missed this one we needed NEX set to go less than 252 but
unfortunately they got 27 kills so like I said you're not going to hit every single
one of these flips you only have to hit around 12 to 133% of these to be profitable
over the long term and we hit right around that range if you guys want to check out
the Recaps of how much money people are making inside of these discords you can go
to the member success Channel and people post their success over the long term in
this channel so for example this person went up 21 units in just one week this
person has made made um $377 in just 6 days of being in the Discord so that's super
awesome this person went up 42 units in one day so shout out to them and this
person went up almost 28 units in just one day so as you can see guys these clips
are very very profitable and you're going to want to take advantage of this
opportunity before this website takes it away price fix is always looking for ways
to cheat the customer and take away these profitable exploits in the system so if
you want to make money betting on sports I highly recommend that you jump on now
cuz it's never going to be this easy and it's only going to continue to get harder
in the future if you guys have any questions about this process of betting on
Esports you guys can join the Discord you can talk in the chat you can ask
questions you can even go to the questions Channel you can ask and hear and people
will get back to you anyways hope you guys have a good day hope you guys enjoyed
this video I'll see you guys in the next one cheers let's make some money

Mastering Level 1 Betting- Overview

● Sotheinitial bankroll has been established via your initial investment + sign-up
bonuses.
How do I keep the gravy train rolling?
● Thegoal of level 1 betting is to find advantage plays. Within sports gambling,
we are
looking for positive expected value (+ev for short). If you manage to bet
something at
+100, and next thing you know, no one can bet this for less than-120, you just
achieved
+ev on that bet. But how do we get this? At level one, there are two ways:
○ Taking advantage of the marketing offers put out by the books. If you bet a-120,
and apply a 20% boost, you now have a +100 wager that is unavailable for
cheaper than-120.
○ Arbitrage Betting. Often times, books will be so mis-aligned on a bet, that you
can
bet the “yes” at one book and the “no” at another book with no chance of losing
money in either event.
○ Before discussing each of these routes, some general advice that is important to
note.
■ Youwant to focus your bets on straight wagers as much as possible
■ Parlays are a bad idea. Can you determine what the fair odds of three
different teams all winning a game are at their various price points are? It
is possible, but extremely likely in most scenarios that you are costing
yourself more money than just placing these bets as straight wagers.
■ SameGameParlays need to be avoided like the plague. There is a
reason they are in every marketing campaign from every recreational
sportsbook. They build in a LOT of hidden vigorish to these bets and
getting fair odds on them is near impossible. They are a scam.
● ButParlays and Same Game Scams are fun! I agree! The
sportsbooks love them so much, they constantly throw
promotional offers at you to hook you on them. When properly
applied, these boosts can be a lot of fun and profitable. When
improperly applied, they are going to cost you money long-term,
even with a boost.
■ Focusontwo-way markets. If the sportsbook doesn’t have to offer a “no”
bet, then they can more easily disguise how much vigorish they are
attaching to the line.
 ● Asanexample, I recently saw Jaylen Warren’s O/U rushing +
receiving line at o/u49.5, with the over priced at-129. When I
looked to see his alt line for 50+ for this same market, the price
was-215.
■ Reminder, getting better odds than the fair/true odds for a wager is the
goal. If you get better than that, you will win long term. If you don’t, you
will lose

Conquering the Odds: A Beginner's Guide to Positive EV Betting Strategies

For many sports fans, the thrill of the game goes beyond the final score. The
chance to
predict the outcome and potentially win money adds another layer of excitement.
However, for those new to sports betting, navigating the world of odds and wagers
can
feel overwhelming. Chasing quick wins often leads to disappointment, but there's a
smarter way to approach sports betting– with Positive Expected Value (EV)
strategies.
This guide equips you, the aspiring data-driven bettor, with the knowledge and
tools to
employ Positive EV strategies and transform your sports betting experience. We'll
delve
into the core concepts, explore valuable tools, and equip you with practical
strategies to
consistently identify and place winning bets.
Understanding Expected Value (EV) in Betting
Imagine flipping a fair coin. Heads, you win $1, tails, you lose $1. Over a large
number
of flips, the expected value of this bet is zero. Heads and tails appear with
equal
probability, so your wins and losses even out.
Now, consider a coin weighted slightly towards heads. The odds of winning become
slightly higher. Translating this to sports betting, Positive EV bets are those
where the
potential payout, considering the odds offered, is greater than the cost of the
bet.
The Power of Data and Research
Sports betting isn't blind luck. Teams have strengths and weaknesses, players have
hot
and cold streaks, and injuries can significantly impact a game's outcome. By
leveraging
data and conducting thorough research, you can gain a significant edge over casual
bettors who rely solely on intuition or gut feelings.
Here are some key data points to research when formulating your bets:
● TeamStatistics: Analyze past performance metrics like win-loss records, points
scored and allowed, offensive and defensive efficiency.
● Player Performance: Track individual player stats, recent form, injuries, and
potential matchups.
● TeamTrends: Identify trends like a team's performance at home vs. away or
against specific opponents.
● Betting Market Analysis: Look for discrepancies between odds offered by
different sportsbooks, potentially revealing value bets.
Tools for Data-Driven Betting:
In today's digital age, numerous tools exist to empower data-driven bettors. One
such
tool is OddsJam, a platform that aggregates odds from various sportsbooks and
helps
identify positive EV opportunities. By comparing odds with its own statistical
models,
OddsJam highlights bets where the potential payout outweighs the actual risk based
on
its analysis.
Positive EV Betting Strategies in Action
Now that you grasp the core concepts, let's explore practical strategies to
identify and
exploit positive EV opportunities.
1. Identifying Mispriced Lines:
Sportsbooks are businesses, aiming to set odds that attract bets on both sides,
ensuring a profit regardless of the outcome. However, pricing can be imperfect,
creating
opportunities for bettors. Tools like OddsJam help pinpoint discrepancies by
comparing
lines with their own statistical models.
Example: Imagine a sportsbook offers odds of-110 (wager $110 to win $100) on Team
A winning and +100 on Team B winning. OddsJam's analysis might suggest Team B
has a 42% chance of winning. Based on this data, a bet on Team B offers positive
EV,
as the potential return ($100 for a $100 wager) outweighs the cost, even
considering the
sportsbook's margin.
2. Exploiting Market Inefficiencies:
Public perception can significantly impact betting lines. Popular teams might see
inflated
odds due to heavy betting, even if their true win probability isn't as high.
Identifying
these situations allows you to fade the public (bet against the popular team) and
potentially capitalize on positive EV opportunities.
3. Utilizing Sharps and Betting Signals:
Professional bettors, known as sharps, meticulously analyze data and identify
value
bets. Following their wagers can offer valuable insights, especially when they
heavily
favor a specific outcome that might be overlooked by the public. However, exercise
caution and conduct your own research before blindly following any betting signal.
4. Specializing in a Specific Sport:
Focusing on one or two sports allows you to gain deeper insights into league
dynamics,
player performance trends, and historical data. This specialization can refine
your ability
to identify undervalued bets compared to a more general approach.
Discipline and Bankroll Management
Positive EV strategies increase your long-term winning potential, but remember,
it's not
a guarantee of constant wins. There will be losing streaks. Here's where
discipline and
proper bankroll management become crucial.
● SetBetting Limits: Allocate a specific portion of your bankroll (money
designated for sports betting) to each wager. Avoid chasing losses by recklessly
increasing your stake.
● Don't Bet with Emotion: Stick to your
Discipline and Bankroll Management (continued)
● Don't Bet with Emotion: Stick to your data-driven approach and avoid letting
emotions like excitement or frustration influence your betting decisions.
● FocusontheLong Run: Positive EV strategies pay off over a series of bets.
Don't get discouraged by short-term losses. Consistency and discipline are key to
achieving long-term profitability.
Beyond the Basics: Advanced Positive EV Strategies
As you gain experience, consider exploring more advanced Positive EV strategies,
such
 as:
● Arbitrage Betting: Exploiting discrepancies in odds offered by different
sportsbooks on the same event, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the outcome.
However, arbitrage opportunities are rare and often involve quick action before
lines are adjusted.
● Value Betting with Parlays: Combining multiple bets into a parlay (single wager
with multiple outcomes) can offer increased payouts. However, the risk also
increases significantly. Ensure each individual bet within the parlay offers
positive
EV to justify the higher risk.
● LiveBetting: Betting during a game as it unfolds. Live betting introduces
dynamic odds based on the real-time action, potentially creating opportunities for
quick positive EV bets. However, live betting requires a deep understanding of
the sport and the ability to react quickly to changing situations.
Remember: These advanced strategies require a solid foundation in core Positive EV
principles and significant experience. Master the basics before diving into these
advanced concepts.
Conclusion:
Positive EV betting empowers you to approach sports betting strategically,
leveraging
data and research to find profitable opportunities. Remember, success doesn't come
overnight. Be patient, disciplined, and consistently refine your analysis skills.
With
dedication and the right tools, you can transform your sports betting experience
from a
gamble to a calculated pursuit of profit.
This guide has equipped you with the essential knowledge and strategies to embark
on
your journey as a data-driven sports bettor. Remember, responsible betting is
crucial.
Always prioritize enjoyment and set sensible betting limits.
Continuous Learning:
The world of sports betting is constantly evolving. Keep yourself updated on
industry
trends, analyze successful bettors' approaches, and explore new tools and
resources.
Continuous learning will fuel your growth and refine your ability to identify and
capitalize
on Positive EV opportunities. Now, go out there, research your bets, and conquer
the
odds!

Introduction
For our previous project, we investigated the availability of positive ROI
opportunities in the
sports betting industry. We looked through the paper “Beating the bookies with
their own
numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged” and were able to come
to a
similar conclusion that the authors did. There are dozens of sportsbooks available
that offer
differing odds, and as a result some are more favorable than others. By using the
average
implied odds as a proxy for actual probability, strategic betters are able to
identify mispriced
lines that, in many cases, yield positive expected value opportunities.
With these opportunities available, there are certainly ways to generate positive
returns over a
period of time. Given this information and conclusion, we wanted to further
investigate how
various betting strategies would fare in the long run in order to determine how
best to select
and size bets. The researchers whose work we attempted to recreate used a rather
primitive
betting strategy of placing a $50 wager on each bet that they identified as
profitable. However,
there are other methods that we believe would be much stronger at generating
returns in the
long run while still accounting for risk of ruin and protecting from crippling
downswings.
Data Cleaning and Bet Selection
Data Cleaning
We used the same data set as used in our previous reproduction. Although the data
itself
contains everything needed, further inspection shows that the dataset is perhaps
too broad,
resulting in a fairly large number of abnormalities that complicate the results of
our betting
strategies. The dataset included over 100 international leagues, ranging from the
English
Premier League to the Yemeni League. Some of the most abnormal observations were
data
from extremely obscure leagues. These match-ups often featured tremendous skill
gaps
Beggy
2
between teams, and odds were typically offered by only one or two sportsbooks.
These
3
obscure leagues have exceedingly low betting volume and a dearth of advanced data
for
modeling odds, which undermines our assumption that average odds are a good proxy
for the
true probabilities of match outcomes. This introduces an unmanageable amount of
uncertainty
to our betting strategies, and coupled with the logistical difficulty of placing
bets on these
markets in the real world, presents a strong point of concern in the dataset. To
mitigate this
issue, we decided to limit the dataset to the top five European soccer leagues:
England,
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. We are confident that matches in these leagues
are
sufficiently fairly officiated, highly scrutinized, and well approximated by
average odds that are
offered from a plethora of Europe’s most reputable sportsbooks and oddsmakers.
We were also compelled to consider what to do with the abundant arbitrage
opportunities
present in the dataset. Arbitrage opportunities are indicated by maximum odds that
differ
significantly from the average odds for that event. This is typically indicative of
sportsbooks
that have encountered an error in posting or forming odds, or are gravely late to
update odds
following critical news, such as injury updates. We identified these occurrences by
summing
the implied probabilities of the maximum odds for each match; any matches whose
cumulative
implied probabilities summed to less than 1.0 must have mispriced odds. We decided
to filter
out matches whose probabilities were under 0.80, under the assumption that some of
these
matches may have been improperly scraped or have mispriced odds that are nearly
impossible to capitalize on, as they are corrected almost immediately. We chose to
retain the
other arbitrage opportunities in the interest of practicality and realism. The
average bettor is
far more likely to capture moderately mispriced odds before they are corrected.
Additionally,
sports betting arbitrage is indeed a viable betting strategy that has paid
dividends for the tech-
and data-savvy bettor. To remove these would be ignorant of the reality of smart
betting.
Beggy
3
4
Finally, we also removed matches that featured decimal odds above 4.0 (25% implied
probability of any particular event). This was less theory-driven but moreso a
decision
informed by empirical results. Of course, it is still possible for large underdogs
to offer positive
expected value so long as the odds are favorable. Still, we found that inclusion of
such large
underdogs corresponded with markedly increased bankroll variance, which typically
resulted
in ruin far more quickly. As such, we limited maximum odds to 4.0 in the interest
of lowering
variance without excessively trimming down good-value bets.
Bet Selection
Before sizing could be taken into account, the positive expected value bets had to
be
identified. Our criteria for bet selection was based on a standard vig of 10% juice
total, or the
implied probabilities of the adding up to 110% rather than a fair 100%, as is
generally industry
standard. Therefore, each betting line should contain about 3.3% juice (given that
soccer
betting lines are three-way). Utilizing a minimum threshold of a 0.05 expected
return threshold
(which we refer to as bet “margin”) yielded profitable results which is what we
opted to use for
our selected betting methods that contained a fixed threshold. As previously
mentioned, we
would take an average of all of the lines across the various sportsbooks to use as
a proxy for
the true fair odds (with vig still in them) and would compare individual lines to
this average in
order to determine whether or not there was the minimum required value. Filtering
based on
these criteria resulted in 121,507 selected lines, of which 10,275 met the 0.05
threshold.
Bet Sizing
With this framework in place to choose our bets, we attempted to model the
performance of
different sizing strategies: constant sizing, Full Kelly, Partial Kelly, and
varying EV margin
thresholds.
Beggy
4
5
Constant Bet Size
We used a constant bet sizing strategy as a benchmark, as completed in the prior
project. We
utilized the 0.05 threshold in order to identify the bets we wanted to place and
then wagered
$50 on each of them. The strategy was tremendously successful, as it yielded
$10,000 profit
when applied to the 10,275 placed bets out of the 121,507 total matches in our
pool.
Full Kelly (Margin = 0.05)
The first attempt at a strategic bet sizing strategy was the use of Full Kelly,
which maximizes
the expected logarithm of the returns. It is a very strong system but there can be
significant
downside risk as it is not built to consider variance thresholds and does not
account for the
uncertainty surrounding the implied probability of the event, which can never be
fully known.
Beggy
5
6
Starting with a bankroll of $10,000, we employed this strategy that calculates bet
sizing based
on the formula above where f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager, b
is the net odds
received on the wager (profit if win), p is the probability of winning, and q is
the probability of
losing (1 − p). Generally it can generate impressive results, but when applied to
our data set
its fatal flaws were revealed. One bet was deemed tremendously advantageous and
Kelly
determined a size of 90% of the bankroll, and bad luck and a highly improbable loss

completely ruined it. Even when we placed a cap on maximum Kelly size at 20% of
bankroll,
the bankroll went to zero as Full Kelly is simply too aggressive. Multiple of these
instances led
to the bankroll asymptotically approaching zero, proving that it is not a viable
strategy in
practice for bettors with a finite bankroll that cannot be easily replenished (as
is the case in all
real-world scenarios).
Partial Kelly
A common adjustment made to Kelly is to employ “Partial Kelly”, which aims to
reduce
variance by scaling down the bet sizes. It is commonly used in practice by bettors
and
Beggy
6
investors because Kelly is far too aggressive to be sustainable for people managing
a bankroll
7
in almost all situations. The partial Kelly strategy adjusts for the uncertainty of
the underlying
probability, which of course can never be fully known in sports betting.
Unsurprisingly, this
resulted in superior outcomes for our algorithm, although some coefficients fared
better than
others. Half Kelly still resulted in ruin in every simulation, but the ruin did
occur later than in full
Kelly.
Quarter Kelly showed far better results, yielding a profit of $40,374 over 10,275
bets. As we
continuously reduced the coefficient, the profits grew faster and faster. Partial
Kelly works
because it accounts for the possibility of oddsmaker error; After all, just because
oddsmakers
seem to have reached some consensus on an event does not mean the underlying
probability
has been identified with full confidence. The Full Kelly bettor who believes this
without
hesitation will surely end in ruin as the inevitable bad run wipes out their
bankroll.
Marginal Threshold
In addition to employing different betting strategies, we also experimented with
varying the
expected value threshold criterion for our bet selection. In the previous section,
we operated
under a 0.05 margin, meaning the best odds must have been five percentage points
better
Beggy
7
than the average odds for us to bet the market. In exploring the impact of margin
size, we
8
simulated each strategy under a more conservative 10% margin and a more aggressive
2.5%
margin. The impact was profound; 79,860 bets were placed with a 2.5% margin,
falling to
10,275 bets for a 5% margin, and ultimately dropping to only 369 bets when using a
10%
margin.
The conservative strategy had the greatest returns. The $50 fixed bets returned
less total
profit, an unsurprising result due to the low number of bets. The results for Kelly
betting were
far better. Full Kelly avoided ruin and only resulted in a $1,549 loss, whereas
Half Kelly was
astoundingly profitable with a $115,097 profit. Quarter Kelly remained profitable
with a
$62,425 return. The aggressive approach resulted in the most extreme results, where
$50
fixed bets resulted in ruin, and all Kelly strategies similarly left us bankrupt. A
full summary of
our results can be found in the tables below.
Beggy
8
Unsurprisingly, using a conservative bet strategy brings the highest returns but is

9
complemented by a notably low betting pool, whereas using higher margins in 5% and
2.5%
provides a much larger pool but comes with an increased risk of diminished returns,
as
indicated by our poor results in those scenarios. We noted a key relationship
throughout these
simulations: as the margin of safety increases, we are more confident in our bets
and thus a
more aggressive Kelly strategy can be employed to maximize returns. This is why
Half Kelly is
most profitable under a 10% margin, but Quarter Kelly is superior with a 5% margin.
This
analysis shows again the dangers of using Full Kelly regardless of the threshold as
we lost
money in all 3 scenarios and points to using a stricter margin, prioritizing
quality bets over
higher quantity through a larger betting volume.
Beggy
9
Conclusions
10
Full Kelly simply does not work in a realistic betting environment such as the one
we set up. It
led to bankruptcy in 100% of the scenarios to which it was applied. This is common
knowledge
in the world of sports betting so we were satisfied to come to the finding using
data.
With an aggressive (low) margin, a constant bet size strategy will never be
profitable. We
found convincing evidence that “vig” not only makes the offered lines
mathematically unfair to
the bettor but also makes it impossible to profit in practice. With an aggressive
bet selection
criteria such as the 2.5% threshold, placing $50 bets over and over again will
leave you
deeply in the red. Conversely, a conservative margin can be very profitable in
theory. Our
10% threshold resulted in a profit of $2,934 after placing a total of $18,450 in
bets; that’s
about a 16% return on investment!
Partial Kelly with coefficient 0.50 and a conservative 10% threshold is the most
profitable
strategy we found. This strategy limits variance, avoids bet sizes that could
bankrupt you, and
stays away from games where the book has enough juice to eat your entire margin.
Betting on
the exact matches in our data set would take you 11 years, with an annual rate of
return of
about 80%.

Expected value and Betting systems

Random variable A random variable represents a measurement in a random experi
ment. We usually denote random variable with capital letter XY
. If S is the sample
space of the experiment then to each i S the random variable X assigns a certain
value
( a real number). The random variable is described by its probability distribution
P(X = )
for all possible values that the random variable can take. Of course we have
0 P(X= ) 1 P(X= )=1
Example: If you roll a pair of dice consider the random variable
X = sumof the two dice
Then X takes values 23
12 and P(X =2) =1 36, P(X =3) = 2 36 etc..
 Expected value of a random variable For a random variable X the expected value of
X is the average value of X which we denote by E[X]. It is given by
Expected value of X : E[X] =
P(X = )
Chuck-a-luck This game (found in fairgrounds) is played by rolling 3 dice and
betting
on a number between 1 and 6. You win your bet multiplied by the number of times
your
chosen appear on the the three dice. For example if you bet $1 on 5 and roll 455
you
win $2. A quick look at this game may make it appear reasonably fair. Since you
roll 3
dice and there seems to be a probability 1 2 that your chosen number appears and
so the
odds should be in your favor. For a second look let us compute your expected gain
E[W]
at this game. Supose you bet on 5
E[W] = 3P(3 ves)+2P(2 ves)+1P(1 ve) 1P(0 ve)
= 3 1
216 +2 15
36 +1 75
36 1 125
216 = 17
216 = 079
1
That is you loose around 8 cents on the dollar at this game.
Example: Expected gain at roulette. At the Las Vegas roulette (with 38 numbers,
0,00,1,2,3, etc) you can do various bets (lets say the bet size is $1).
1. Bet on red (or black) and a successful bet pays you $1.
2. Bet on a number and a successful bet pays you $35.
3. Bet on the rst (or the second, the third) dozen of numbers a successful bet
pays
you $2.
4. etc
You can nd the list of all bets and payouts for Las Vegas and Monte-Carlo roulette
at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette
You may wonder which of these bets is the more advantageous and so we compute the
expected gain E[W] for each bet
Red E[W] = 1 18
38 120
38 = 2
38 = 00526
Number E[W] = 35 1
38 137
38 = 2
38
Dozen E[W] = 2 12
38 126
38 = 2
38
All these bets (and all the other ones) are devised to give the same odds. It does
not
matter how you play, you shall loose on average around 53 cents for each dollar
you bet.
If you bet on a group of n numbers then the payout is
Payout for a bet on n numbers = 36
n 1
and for such a bet the expected gain is
 E[W] = 36
n 1 n
38 1 38 n
38 = 36
38 1 = 2
38
Keno 10 spot card Recall that in Keno the casino draws 20 numbers randomly out of
80 numbers. In a m spot card you pick m numbers and if k of your m numbers match
the casino numbers you have a catch of k . We have
10
P(catch of k) =
k
70
20 k
80
20
2
Theprobabilityandpayouts forKenovaryabit fromplacetoplace: fora10spotcard
thepayoutsbytheMassachusettslotteryare(seehttp://www.masslottery.com/games/
keno.htmlforall thepayouts)
Match Payout
10 100000
9 10000
8 500
7 80
6 20
5 2
0 2
Soforabetof1dollartheexpectedamountpaidbythelotteryis
E[W] = 100000
10
10
70
10
80
20
+10000
10
9
70
11
80
20
+500
10
8
70
12
80
20
+80
10
7
70
13
80
20
+20
10
 6
70
2014
80
20
+2
10
5
70
15
80
20
++2
10
0
70
20
80
20
= 00112211 + 00612064 + 00677096 + 01288914
+02295878 + 01028553 + 00915814
= 06930534 (1)
The lotterykeeps thenmore than30cents (!) of eachdollarplayedonKenoandthe
numberabovetellsyouwherethepayoutare.Forexample22centsonadollararegiven
aspayout foracatchof6whileonlyaboutonecentaspayout foracatchof10,andso
on..
Themartingalebettingsystem. Letusexplainthisbettingsystembyanexample.
Youjust receive thenews thatyou inheritedfroma long lost relative thenice sumof
$2550000=(28 1) 10000). Youmove immediatelytoAtlanticcityanddevisethe
followinggamblingscheme. Everymonthyougotothecrapstableandbet$10000. If
youwin,youjustwon$10000andyouquitandliveo yourmoneyforamonth. Now
ifyoulooseplayagainyoudoubleyourbetto$20000. Ifyouwinyoursecondbetthen
yournetwinis$20000 $10000=$10000. Againifyoulooseyoudoubleyoubet,
etc.... Inanycaseifyouwinthekthbetthenyournetgainis
10000 1 2 2k 1+2k =10000
usingthegeometric series1+x+ +xk1 =1 xk
1 x
withx=2. Sowiththisbetting
system,knownasthemartingaleyoudowin$10000everytime.
3
If you have unlimited resources (and if the casino has no betting limit) you could
in
principle make money using subfair games. But of course none of this condition is
true.
If the probability to lose any single game is q then
Probability to lose everything = q8
since to lose everything you need to loose 8 times in a row. Let us compute the
expected
gain W playing the game this way. We have
E[W] = 10000 (1 q8) (28 1)10000 p8 = 10000 1 (2q)8
If the game were fair p = 1 2 then the probability to lose everything on a single
month
is 1 256 = 00039 and the expected gain is 0. If you play craps for which q = 251
295
then the probability to lose everything in a single run 00044 and the expected
gain is
$118892.
The idea behind this betting (and many other) betting system is to make sure that
you win (a little) with high probability
 Exercises:
Exercise 1: The probability to win at powerball have been computed in a previous
ex
ercise (you can nd them at http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp).
Remember that a ticket is worse $2. The expected amount paid back by the lottery
for
a bet depends on the jackpot. Today (March 1, 2013) the jackpot is $103 million
with a
cash value of $64.2 million. Compute your expected gain in the following three
cases.
1. You take the cash value
2. You choose delayed payments
3. Youtake the cash value but you remember that actually you are going to pay
roughly
around 40% of federal and state taxes on your prize.
Exercise 2: Poker dice is a carnival game played with 5 dice with 9, 10, J, Q, K,
A on
the sides instead of the usual numbers. The bettor chooses two di erent faces (let
us say
he chooses Q and K) from the six choices and is paid at rate of 1:1 if both sides
appear
(that is they appear at least once). Compute your expected gain at this game.
Hint:
Compute the probability not to win and use the formula for P(A B).
Exercise 3: An annuity is the promise by A (typically a life insurance company or
a
pension fund) to pay B (typically an individual) a certain sum of money for the
rest of
4
his life. For example in many pensions systems, when you retire, you are promised a
xed
amount of money every year for the rest of your life, depending on how much you
saved
throughout your life (and probably your age too).
To compute the value of an annuity usually one use
Value of the annuity = Expected amount paid to B by A
1. Assume that A promises to pay B $10000 every year until B s death. Based on
public health data A estimate that the probability that B dies in any single year
is
1 p. Assume that the rst payment X0 = 1 is made at once and we denote by
Xj the amount paid at the beginning of year j. Compute E[Xj] and then the total
value of the annuity.
2. In part 1. we have neglected the fact that money can earn interest. Suppose A
invests its money in some bonds which yields a xed percentage of % per year.
If A needs to pay $10000 unit to B in year i, how much money does A needs to
have right now? Based on this compute the value of the annuity, that is how much
money needs A to have on hand at year 0 to pay the annuity in the future.
3. What is unrealistic in our model?
Exercise 4: Consider the martingale betting systems where the probability of
winning
a single game is p and your limited fortune (or the house limit) allows to you bet
at most
k times.
1. What is the probability that you loose everything exactly on your nth visit to
the
casino?
2. Compute the expected number of visits to the casino?
Hint: How do you compute 1+2x+3x2 +4x3 + ?
The EVF Model:
A Novel Framework for
Understanding Gambling and,
by Extension, Poker
Arthur S. Reber
Abstract
there are several senses in which the term gambling is used. all have liabilities,

problems that have muddied the waters in scientific research, generated conflicting

legal decisions, compromised debates over ethical and moral issues, and have led to

uneven legislation. Here, a novel framework for the term is offered, based on two
continuous variables: a) the Expected Value (EV) of any arbitrary game and, b) the
inherent Flexibility (F) of that game. This EVF model produces a classification
system
for all the enterprises that can or have been called gambling. it is one that
allows for
more measured decisions to be made and provides a more coherent platform on which
to deliberate the many significant issues that have been raised over the years. It
also
permits a sensible answer to the question of the nature of games like the stock
market,
opening a small business, and especially, poker.
Introduction
What activities constitute “gambling?” if gambling is a legitimate category,
what are its boundaries? What features do the objects in the category express? What

characteristics do they have in common, if any? Surprisingly, there aren’t any

satisfying
answers to these questions – which is disturbing because there are significant
legal,
The term gambling has had
an unhappy lexicographic
experience.
legislative, economic and ethical issues lurking behind them.this
paper presents the EVF model, a novel conceptual framework for
viewing these issues. it allows for a different gloss on the core
term gambling and provides a format within which some of these
concerns might be approached. the model represents gambling
activities along on two continuous dimensions: the Expected Value
(EV) of a game and the inherent Flexibility (F) that it affords
participants. the model is a general one but, largely because of the intense
scrutiny
accorded it in recent years, the game of poker will take a central place in the
discussions.
Definitional Issues
arthur S. reber
Department of Psychology,
University of
British columbia
reber@brooklyn.cuny.edu
the term gambling has had an unhappy lexicographic experience. in popular
parlance, it is used with considerable latitude and, for the most part, without
causing
any particular problems. gambling is taking risks, putting something of value
(usually,
but not always, money) in jeopardy with at least a reasonable hope of ultimate
gain. the
looseness of the meaning has led to its application to a wide range of human
conduct.
We have all seen the stock market called a gamble; real estate ventures and other
forms
of investment are routinely called gambles; and politicians who stake out
controversial
positions are often described as gambling. the connotations here are usually
benign.
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
59
the gambler in these instances is merely taking a chance on a program, project or
an
enterprise that has some balance between risk and reward.
there is, however, a second cluster of connotations that accompany the term,
ones that derive from viewing gambling as an activity linked with games of chance,
enterprises that take place in casinos, racetracks, lottery kiosks, card rooms,
billiard
halls and other venues whose social status is generally pegged below those of Wall
Street, Congress or a Justice of the Peace’s office. Those who gamble in this sense
are
commonly viewed with a moral opprobrium rarely found applied to those who gamble
in the former sense. the connotative clash here has caused problems, most
compellingly
when efforts to curtail or even outlaw one kind of gambling are made while leaving
the
other largely to the kinds of limited regulatory oversight consistent with free
market
policy. to see this distinction, consider the following tale.
The Saga of N.L.
this story is presented as, in Dennett’s (1995) famous phrase, an intuition pump.
it concerns n.L., a young British businessman who made a number of decisions in a
highly volatile area, wagering on anticipated future outcomes. things did not go
well,
and N.L. found himself in a financially difficult situation. He struggled to recoup
the
initial losses by increasing the stakes. again, reality was uncooperative; losses
continued
to mount. convinced that his luck was bound to change, he began taking staggering
risks; he falsified accounts to hide his losses, hoping he could make the “big
score” that
would bail him out of the mess he had created. But the spiral continued. Eventually
the
bottom fell out. His life lay in ruins. Family, friends and businesses were dragged
into
the morass and because of the tangled web of connections, the misery extended in
ways
unimaginable when the first ventures were made.
this sounds like a classic case of an individual with a gambling problem. in a
sense
it was, but the gamble was not what most consider gambling. n.L. is nick Leeson,
the
trader whose speculations some years ago on the international money market brought
down Barings Bank, then one of Britain’s oldest and most storied investment houses,

and the personal bank of the Queen.

What do our intuitions tell us about Mr. Leeson? Was he an investor or a gambler?
Should we see him as a bold financial speculator who made a series of ill-judged
decisions concerning currency futures or is he a flawed human being with deep
personal
weakness? if the wreckage of Barings had been found under a roulette table rather
than
on a trading room floor, would we feel differently? Would there be
cries for legislation to curb such excesses if they had resulted from
losses due to poor handicapping of sporting events rather than from
reckless financial decision making? Is there a stain upon the soul of
Leeson the gambler that Leeson the speculator somehow avoids?
there was little doubt that his actions violated the mores and
laws of conduct in the business world and he was found guilty
Is there a stain upon the soul of
Leeson the gambler that Leeson
the speculator somehow avoids?
of fraud in a court in Singapore. But to put his escapade in perspective, after
serving
over six years in prison he returned to ireland, wrote two books, one of which was
made into a movie (Rogue Trader) and recently retired as cEo of galway United Fc.
according to his personal web site, he “continues to be in-demand around the world
for conference and after-dinner speaking.” Leeson’s story is not unusual. Michael
Milken, known famously as the Junk Bond King, was convicted of securities fraud
and served almost two years in a US Federal prison. after his release he was warmly

embraced by the investment community as a speaker and consultant and is currently a

high-profile philanthropist and public figure. The writer and media personality
Martha
Stewart similarly returned unscathed to her tV show and culinary publishing empire
after her conviction for insider trading. these cases sit in dramatic contrast with
that of
Pete rose, one of the best hitters in the history of baseball, who was banished
from the
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
60
game for life (thereby excluding him from the Baseball Hall of Fame, its highest
honor)
because he bet on baseball games.1
The connotative boundaries
of the term gambling are ill
defined and the category itself is
misunderstood to the point where
whether an activity gets assigned
to it or to some other category
is based, not a set of well
articulated properties, but on
prejudice, cultural background,
specific models of morality and
political considerations.
there is a problem here and it is being caused by a simple
category error. as noted above, the connotative boundaries
of the term gambling are ill-defined and the category itself is
misunderstood to the point where whether an activity gets assigned
to it or to some other category is based, not a set of well-articulated
properties, but on prejudice, cultural background, specific models
of morality and political considerations. These issues were first
recognized in the legal world where this kind of ambiguity of usage
was deeply problematical.
Legal Usage
The courts needed a more focused definition, one that could
withstand the scrutiny of the constitution and existing precedent.
Legal scholars are fond of quoting Justice Potter Stewart in the case
of Jacobellis v. ohio (1964), “i shall not today attempt further to
define [it]. But I know it when I see it....” Stewart, of course, was
referring to pornography, but the same subjective aspect applies
to gambling. the internet site USLegal tries to give substance to a
Stewart-like implicit understanding in its effort at a definition of gambling law:
a person engages in gambling if he stakes or risks
something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance
or a future contingent event not under his control or influence,
upon an agreement or understanding that he or someone
else will receive something of value in the event of a certain
outcome. Gambling does not include bona fide business
transactions valid under the law of contracts, such as the
purchase or sale at a future date of securities or commodities,
contracts of indemnity or guaranty and life, health or accident
insurance.
the problems embedded here are numerous. For one, it would seem that Pete rose,
by virtue of having “control or influence” over the outcome of baseball games, was
not really gambling when he wagered on their final score. Second, because the
initial
statement seems to apply to many financial activities including the buying and
selling of
stocks, commodities and other instruments, futures trading, real estate and
insurance, the
definition specifies that “transactions valid under the law of contracts” are
excluded. It
is difficult to see this clause as anything other than an unconvincing apologia
designed
to separate what are regarded as socially accepted forms of gambling from those
that are
not.
this gambit not only does not work, it fares poorly when applied to other games,
such
as predictions markets, where individuals may invest (wager? gamble?) on outcomes
over which they have no control or influence, such as upcoming elections,
meteorological
events, technological developments, entertainment, civil cases, etc.2 the existence
of
these markets is evidence of a serious interpretive problem. it appears to be
perfectly
legal to purchase an option on how a particular business deal will turn out, what
the
impact of climate change will be, which popular entertainer will win an award, how
f
inancial markets will move and, of course, what political figures will rise or
fall, win
elections or lose them, be involved in scandals or even die. But you will not find
the
1
1 rose apparently never bet against his team, so could not be accused of doing
anything other than trying to take advantage of his skills as a
manager and player. no evidence was presented that his actions compromised the
integrity of any game he played in or managed.
2 For examples see either http://www.intrade.com/ or
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm, two of the most popular futures markets
where a
large number of real world propositions are publicly traded.
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
61
outcome of a sporting event listed among the many available wagers – at least not
on
sites that are open to residents of the United States.
interestingly, these markets, because they are based on pari-mutuel principles,
have turned out to be remarkably sound measures of reality. Brandt, Kavajecz, and
Underwood (2007) outline how they operate in treasury futures. their near prescient

sensitivity to events is such that in 2003 the Pentagon considered establishing a

futures
market on when and where terrorist attacks were to occur. it was soon scrapped, not

because it was deemed to be gambling, but because it seemed so bizarre and

unethical
and, as several critics noted, had inherent difficulties including manipulation of
the
market by real terrorists.
the USLegal entry also notes, correctly, that there are complex state laws that
control gambling activities and they do not all mesh easily. Humphrey (n.d.) has
compiled an analysis of each of the 48 states where some form of gambling is legal.

the result is a truly messy set of legal circumstances which, given the manner in
which
the 10th amendment to the constitution has been interpreted, is not surprising. as
far as
US courts are concerned, the closest to a coherent definition comes from the
generally
accepted argument that gambling is an enterprise involving three necessary
elements:
• Consideration, or what you must pay to play
• Prize, or what you can win
• Chance, or the role of luck in the gamble.
consideration and prize are relatively solid factors. they need to be bounded, as
some gambles are over matters trivial while others involve significant amounts but
this
element presents no significant legal challenge. The deep problem lies with chance.

Virtually every game, every venture, has some element of chance; random factors are

omnipresent in all complex activities. the solution has been the Dominant Factor
(or
Principle) Test (DFT) which was first introduced in Morrow v. State, a 1973 case in

alaska: do random, chance factors dominate in the sense that they control the
eventual
outcome or do the skills of the players, the decisions made, and actions taken
ultimately
trump the chancy side?
At first, this principle appears straightforward. Ancient games like the Egyptian
casting of bones surely seemed like gambling, as did other popular pastimes like
wagering on cockfights, dogfights, and races between horses and camels.
Enterprising
rulers like Heung Leung of China’s Han Dynasty who developed the first Keno-type
lottery over two thousand years ago was unambiguously inviting his subjects to
gamble.
More modern games like craps, slots, roulette, baccarat and chemin de fer that are
featured in casinos also fall comfortably into this category. all have the three
criteria
and, at least at first reckoning, in all chance seems to dominate.
However, many of these games that are traditionally considered to be gambling
have a mix of skill and chance. craps has a wide variety of bets that are paid at
different
odds; blackjack requires the player to make decisions on the play of every hand, as
does
video poker. these decisions have an impact on the long-term outcome, the prize.
Even
games played seemingly under a cloud of purely random outcomes have small non
chance elements, and this includes state-run lotteries3 and slot machines.4
However, in
3 Picking a series of numbers like 7, 17, 27, 37 etc. or playing the numbers on a
diagonal on a lottery card
is a poor strategy. These are selected by large numbers of superstitious regulars
and, if they were to win,
the payoff would be low because it would be split between all who hold winning
tickets. A better strategy
is to play the numbers that won last time or a sequence like 5,6,7,8 etc. If these
win you are likely the
only ticket holder.
4 The payout schedule on a slot machine is set on the basis of the base-bet with
1¢ and 2¢ slots having a
return in the low to middle 80% range, 25¢ machines are around 90%, the higher
base-bet ($1, $2) ma
chines payout in the low to mid 90 percent range and those in the upper reaches
($10 and up) pay out in
the upper 90%. A player comfortable wagering $1 on a spin should play a $1 machine
and not put make
four plays at a time on a 25¢ machine.
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all these games (with the exception of blackjack under the right circumstances) the
skill
factor cannot dominate; it cannot overcome the random, chance factors and the
player is,
probabilistically speaking, going to lose in the long run.
In poker the skill element looms
large and recently courts in
Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania
and South Carolina have ruled
that the skill element is,
in fact, dominant.
But there are other games that people and legal jurisdictions had
classified as gambling, like poker, fantasy sports, wagering on horse
and dog races and sports betting where the relationship between
chance elements and decision making is less obvious. in poker the
skill element looms large and recently courts in nevada, colorado,
Pennsylvania and South carolina have ruled that the skill element
is, in fact, dominant (Baxter v. United States, 1986; People V. Kevin
raley, 2009; Pennsylvania v. Dent, 2008; chimento et al. v. town of
Mount Pleasant, 2009). in fantasy sports, participants select fantasy
teams based on real players and either lose their entry fee or win
those of the other participants depending on whose players perform best.
Participants
who are more skillful in selecting players for their team will be able to win at
higher
than chance rates. interestingly, fantasy leagues were exempted from the 2006
Unlawful
internet gambling Enforcement act (UigEa), which criminalized the transfer of money

between an individual and a known gambling site.

Similarly, wagering on the outcome of sporting events and other competitions has a
significant skill component. As early competitors quickly realized, someone who
could
handicap the roosters stood to win more than he would lose wagering on cockfights,
and
the same applies to football games, hockey matches and horse races. the legal
situation,
however, is again ambiguous. Horseracing and greyhound racing are considered to be
gambling and share virtually all essential elements – the primary distinction is
the species
doing the running. However, horseracing, like fantasy sports, was exempted from the

UigEa, but dog racing was not. Wagering on Jai alai is still legal in Florida, but
in no
other state. Sports betting is permitted in nevada and, in limited ways in a few
other
states, but criminalized elsewhere and the Federal Wire act of 1961
The predominance rule, as it
is generally applied, has no
temporal parameters. But the
skill-to-chance balance in many
of these games, particularly the
more problematical ones like
poker, is sensitive to
time and frequency.
forbids the use of communications devices to transmit information
about interstate wagers on sporting events let alone the wagers
themselves. Try as one might, it is difficult to find a coherent pattern
here.
in addition to these sources of confusion, there are the problems
of time and repetition. the predominance rule, as it is generally
applied, has no temporal parameters. But the skill-to-chance balance
in many of these games, particularly the more problematical ones
like poker, is sensitive to time and frequency. the outcome in a
poker game that lasts but a few hands is overwhelmingly dictated
by chance. But the longer the game goes on, the more hands that
are dealt, the more decisions that have to be made, the more likely it
becomes that the skills of the participants come to dominate. Fiedler
and rock (2009) developed a quantitative measure, the critical repetition
Frequency,
which provides an estimate of the number of repetitions (or hands) needed to
determine
when the skills of a player outstrip the luck element. the failure to take the
temporal
element or the number of iterations of an activity into account has led many to
make
inappropriate regulatory proposals.
What is needed is a more coherent conceptual framework for the core term gambling.
Without it the current mish-mash of rules, laws, regulations, prejudices and
incoherent
ethical and moral arguments will doubtlessly continue.
Defining Gambling
In my view, the most straightforward definition of gambling is from the Dictionary
of
Psychology (reber, allen & reber, 2008, p. 319): the risking of something of value
with
the possibility of ultimate gain.
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this is where this discussion began and, of course, there are problems with almost
every word. What does risk involve? What is the range of values that come under
scrutiny here? What level of possibility counts? What kinds of gains are included?
on
the surface, it looks hopeless.
But this lexicographic messiness is actually a virtue. its unimpeded reach allows
one
to tuck all those complex human activities that involve risk and the possibility of
gain
(or loss) of things of value under the umbrella of gambling. opening a small
business is
a gamble, playing the stock market, getting married, sky-diving, buying a house,
going
to medical school are all, under this omnibus definition, gambles as
much as shooting dice or betting on the Kentucky Derby.
conceptually, this is a not-uninteresting move but, as before,
it has to be narrowed down; boundaries need to be established.
others, of course, have tried to do this, but they have used non
relevant criteria and taken too narrow a stance. For example, there
are learned treatises on the foundations of islam’s prohibition of
gambling (Sharawy, 2000), insightful discussions of the somewhat
more nuanced Judeo-christian views that strive to distinguish
acceptable from unacceptable forms (Kumar, Page & Spalt, 2011),
extended deliberations by economists who have sought balance
between the revenue-generating capacity of gaming (Eadington,
1987) and its potential for social disruption (Lugar, 1998) and, of
course, extended debates in psychological and psychiatric circles
The EVF model is an effort to
detail such dimensions. The
core assumption is that each
of the myriad activities that we
call gambling lies somewhere
along each of two continuous
dimensions, expectation and
f
lexibility.
on problem gambling, its etiology, frequency and surprising resistance to
psychotherapy
(Leiseur, 1998). none of these efforts succeeded, not because they didn’t make
contributions to one or another element in the discussion, but because they focused
on
gambling without unpacking the underlying dimensions that characterize the
enterprise.
The EVF Model
the EVF model is an effort to detail such dimensions. the core assumption is
that each of the myriad activities that we call gambling lies
somewhere along each of two continuous dimensions, expectation
and flexibility. Expectation is the expected value of a game,
the theoretical or empirical return on the investment (roi) the
player makes. Flexibility is the degree to which the outcomes of
any particular game can be altered by the manner in which it is
played. in the legal determination of gambling discussed above,
expectation is the relationship between consideration and prize and
f
lexibility is the balance between skill and chance.
In some situations the EV of
the game has a theoretically
calculable value, in others the
factors that contribute to it are
too complex or unknown and
empirical data are needed. The
Expected Value (EV).
the expected value of a gamble is the long-term return to
those involved in the enterprise. in a game with negative expected
value (-EV), players enter at a statistical disadvantage. this does
not mean that in the long run the player will lose; merely that
f
irst type can be thought of as
games with a theoretical EV; the
latter, those with a normative EV.
the mathematical properties of the game state that, all other factors being equal,
the
theoretical player will find that the prizes do not compensate for the
considerations. in
standard terminology, the payoff odds are less than the true odds.
Similarly, if the game has +EV, the player enters with a statistical advantage; the

prize exceeds the consideration or the payoff odds are greater than the true odds.
again,
there is no guarantee that every player will emerge a winner, only that the
structure of
the game is such that it gives the idealized competitor a statistical edge. as will
become
obvious, an individual participant’s roi is not necessarily equal to the EV of the
game.
in some situations the EV of the game has a theoretically calculable value, in
others the
factors that contribute to it are too complex or unknown and empirical data are
needed.
64
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
The first type can be thought of as games with a theoretical EV; the latter, those
with a
normative EV.
Theoretical EV games.
these games are ones where there is a discernable relationship between the payout
odds and the true odds and both are known. State lotteries are good examples, as
there
is a known percentage of the ticket sales that is returned in the form of prizes.5
Many
casino table games are theoretical EV propositions. Sometimes the calculations are
straightforward, as in games like roulette. Sometimes they are more complicated
because
the game allows for a variety of different bets with different odds (e.g., craps
where
multiple bets can be made on each throw of the dice, each having a different EV) or
the
game’s proprietors impose different take-out rates for different wagers (e.g.,
horse racing
where the so-called exotic wagers have a higher take-out than the traditional win,
place
and show bets). Video poker and slot machines also fall into this category,
although
different mechanisms operate. in video poker the payout schedule can be adjusted
resulting in different EV’s for different machines and forms of poker; in slots,
the random
number generator (rng) that controls the device can be programmed for virtually any
expectation. But despite these variations, in all these cases the theoretical EV
can be
determined objectively.
Normative EV games.
these are propositions where the probability distributions are unknown and must
be determined by empirical means. the vast majority of gambles fall into this
category.
classic examples are starting a small business, engaging in high-risk sports, going
to
college, entering into a profession like medicine or law. in standard discourse
these are
not regarded as games and not normally tucked under a conceptual umbrella labeled
gambling – but, from the inclusive definition they are. Other, more traditional
games,
fall into this category. Poker is, for the most part, a normative EV game. While
one can
calculate the theoretical roi in some cases (like tournament poker where there is a
set
buy-in, known registration fee and published prize schedule), the empirically
discernable
EV for individual players can only be assessed through normative means.
The EV of a game, however, is not the final determination on whether it can be
played
for profit. Several games with discernable negative EVs are played by professionals
who
make a living at them. included here are the various market-based enterprises like
buying
and selling stocks and commodities, currency exchanges and trading futures as well
as other activities more often thought of a games like poker, fantasy sports,
prediction
markets, sports betting and horseracing. in each of these, the negative EV comes
about
because each iteration of the game requires that the participant pay a fee for the
privilege
of playing. Each stock trade,6 purchase or sale of a product, commodity, future
right to
buy or sell an option, requires the payment of a broker’s fee. Each poker hand won
is
diminished by the rake the casino or card room imposes, investments in sporting
events
are taxed by the vigorish (or vig), a nominal percentage of the wager that is paid
by the
losing side in the transaction. one way to think of this is that it is simply the
cost of doing
business.
this is an important feature of the framework being developed. games that are
routinely played for profit by many individuals, organizations, conglomerates, even

5
6
in virtually all state-run lotteries 50% of the ticket sales is returned in prizes
making them the worst propo
sition commonly offered. State lotteries are discussed below.
it has been argued that the stock market should not be thought of as a –EV game on
the grounds that the
broad market has, historically, gone up. this is correct but not relevant. the
growth isn’t derived from the
game itself but in the fact that the broad market is a stochastic mirror of the
economy and the beliefs about
it that are held by the players. So long as economic growth is the norm or sanguine
expectations are com
mon, the market will rise. But each individual “event” in the game has prima facie
negative expectation
because of the fee that must be posted to play.
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66 UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
entire nations, are ones that have, mathematically speaking, negative expected
value
because in each more money (or other things of value) goes on the table than is
ultimately taken off by the participants. the house takes its cut before
distributing the
proceeds to the winners. the reason for this ambiguity about individual EVs is
found in
the other primary underlying dimension, the flexibility of the game.
Flexibility (F).
this factor is simply the extent to which the EV of a game can
be modified by decisions of the participants. Roulette is a good
example of an inflexible game; the actions of the participants have
no long term impact on the outcome – other than wagering on
propositions that fall under the en prison rule.7 other casino-based
games like baccarat have a modest degree of flexibility in that
players can make the “bank” bet which has a small statistical edge over the
“players”
wager (-1.17% v. -1.36%) and avoid the “tie” wager with its -14% EV. craps has the
greatest degree of flexibility of the traditional table games. A player can make
wagers
that range from an EV of over -16% (the “any 7” wager) to a mere -.32% (“pass line
plus
5-times odds”). However, the inherent flexibility of these casino games is limited.
There
are no wagers or decision strategies that will elevate the EV into the positive
realm.
Other games have greater underlying flexibility, where the decisions participants

make are of sufficient impact that even those with a theoretical negative EV can be
turned
into ones with +EV. included here are traditional gambles like poker, horseracing,
sports
betting and blackjack, as well as other endeavors not typically thought of as
gambles
like starting a small business, predictions markets and fantasy sports. the games
are
highly flexible and the skills of the participants are significant features in
determining the
eventual outcomes. The flexibility factor, of course, expresses the balanced roles
of skill
and luck in the game. the simplest way to present these dimensions, and the manner
in
which they map into individual gambling endeavors, is to cut each continuous
dimension
into distinct categories: positive vs. negative expected value of a game and high
vs. low
flexibility of the game. Table 1 lays out the four cells that capture this
framework along
with examples of the games that fall into each.
7 Many casinos have this rule for even money wagers like red-black or odd-even. if
the ball lands in the 0 or
00 slot only half the wager is lost; the other half remains on the table for the
next spin, effectively cutting
the –EV in half.
Flexibility is simply the extent
to which the EV of a game can
be modified by decisions of the
participants.

Expected Value

Negative EV Games Positive EV Games

Flexibility

Low

A casino table games

Slot machines
Bingo & Lotteries
B treasury bonds

High

C Small business start-up

Stock market, Poker,
Sports betting, Horse
racing, Fantasy sports
D Professional schools
(law, medicine)

table 1. the two dimensions of the EVF model with examples of games that fall into
each of the
four broad categories.

Expected Value

Negative EV Games Positive EV Games

Flexibility

Low

A casino table games

Slot machines
Bingo & Lotteries
B treasury bonds

High

C Small business start-up

Stock market, Poker,
Sports betting, Horse
 racing, Fantasy sports
D Professional schools
(law, medicine)

table 1. the two dimensions of the EVF model with examples of games that fall into
each of the
four broad categories.

Expected Value

Negative EV Games Positive EV Games

Flexibility

Low

A casino table games

Slot machines
Bingo & Lotteries
B treasury bonds

High

C Small business start-up

Stock market, Poker,
Sports betting, Horse
racing, Fantasy sports
D Professional schools
(law, medicine)

table 1. the two dimensions of the EVF model with examples of games that fall into
each of the
four broad categories.
This classification system has obvious advantages over the patchwork ones currently

in use. First, it treats all of these enterprises as gambling, which is treated

here as a
large, multi-faceted, conceptual umbrella that encompasses a wide array of actions
and
activities. the legal, legislative, regulatory and socio-psychological decisions
that a
society makes about the games its citizens engage in should be made on the basis of

the cell into which each falls, not arbitrary sets of rules derived from misguided
efforts
governed by a category error.
The Entailments of the EVF model
The EVF framework has several significant advantages. Most obviously, it invites
legislative, legal and academic bodies to view each game in a novel format and, in
many
cases, reassign them. For example, games like poker, sports betting, fantasy sport
leagues,
and predictions markets do not belong in the same category with casino table games,

slot machines, lotteries and bingo. their positioning on the two key dimensions
shows
that they are properly assigned to the same cell as endeavors like investing in the
stock
market, commodities trading, currency speculation and business
The EVF framework has several
significant advantages. Most
obviously, it invites legislative,
legal and academic bodies to
view each game in a novel
format and, in many cases,
reassign them.
start-ups – and the types of rules and regulations that govern these
latter areas should acknowledge the common conceptual base.
the EVF perspective also forces a novel take on many pursuits
that would not be in the average person’s list of gambles. take two
common examples, one from cell c, starting up a small business,
and one from cell D, going to law school. Starting up a small
business has large, normative negative EV. Historically over half
of all start-ups fail within five years, a rate up there with another
big gamble, getting married. of course, some succeed, occasionally
stunningly so but the typical outcome is a substantial loss. However,
the game is one with a measure of flexibility and the eventual
outcome is often (although, as gladwell (2008) and Kahneman (2011) point out,
perhaps
not as often as many believe) dependent on the skills of the players. Because of
the
inherent flexibility component and the link that business has with capitalism, it
is rarely
classified as a gamble and the regulatory mechanisms in place are those that focus
on
business practices – which is entirely appropriate. the same general kinds of
regulatory
systems ought to be the case with other instances of games in this cell – but they
rarely, if
ever, are.
The 2 x 2 framework also
allows a different gloss on the
often passionate arguments put
forward against gambling.
Law school has a different profile. It is also high on the
f
lexibility dimension. Success is dependent on factors such as
grades, the school attended, area of specialization, location, and the
interpersonal style developed. generalizing from those who have
gone before, the law school graduate, unlike someone who opens
a small business, has a high likelihood of playing the game with
positive expectation. But there are no guarantees. Some law students
never make it. Some drop out, others fail to pass the bar exams, others never
establish a
sound practice. they lose in this game and the losses can be substantial.
the 2 x 2 framework also allows a different gloss on the often passionate arguments

put forward against gambling by prominent figures such as Richard Lugar, Republican

Senator from Indiana, William Safire, former speech writer for President Nixon and
one-time columnist for the new York times, and Kerby anderson, Head of Probe
Ministries. anderson (2002) wrote that, “Legalized gambling is bad governmental
policy.
government should promote public virtue not seduce its citizens to gamble in state
sponsored vice.” He went on to argue, predictably, against low-flexibility,
negative-EV
games, those in cell a. He was particularly critical of state lotteries and,
interestingly,
made a number of legitimate points such as the fact that lotteries are a regressive
form of
taxation. But what was diagnostic were the loaded terms: virtue, seduce and vice –
words
it is unlikely he would have used for church-sponsored bingo, a game with
structural
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
67
characteristics virtually identical to a state-sponsored lottery, or for a
brokerage house
which shares underlying features with poker. anderson focused on issues that should
be
of concern but the target of his critique is not what he seems to think it is.
Anderson’s position is held widely among prominent figures such as Ralph Reed,
who mounted a vigorous anti-gambling campaign while head of
the christian coalition,8 Pat Buchanan, conservative writer and
commentator whose standard stump speech includes the phrase,
“gambling should return to the swamp from whence it came,” and
Methodist minister tom gray who heads the national coalition
against Legalized gambling.
The anti-gambling camp has
committed two key errors.
Some years ago, William Safire (1995) brought this perspective to the New York
Times. In an influential Op-Ed essay, he criticized contemporary society for
removing the
“moral stigma” from gambling and sanitizing it, accused the public of having
elevated
the high roller from the previously held position as “scum of society” to “folk
hero.”
He called the “yen to gamble” a “personal weakness,” raised the specter of
“addiction,”
and warned that gambling was corrupting students in schools and colleges around the

country. Safire also raised the specter of organized crime, claiming that “crime
always
goes hand-in-hand with gambling.”
these criticisms are, within the EVF framework, easily seen as the result of a
category error. The one about organized crime is flawed at the deepest levels. It
is
precisely when the activities are criminalized that organized crime gains
influence. The
lessons of Prohibition seem to have been forgotten.
The anti-gambling camp has committed two key errors. First, they misclassified the
various kinds of human activities that fall under the umbrella of “gambling.”
Second,
they approached the topic from a perspective tinged with theological considerations

and puritanical principles, a stance that has prevented them from recognizing the
first
error. they are concerned about games where the odds are set independent of the
play
of the participants such as lotteries and slot machines but allow their disquiet to
drift
into games like sports betting and poker where it is not. Because they fail to
appreciate
the distinction between the generic sense of gambling and the specifics of casino
gaming, they view the craps shooter as unsavory but not the naSDaQ investor; they
see the poker player as a disagreeable character but not the day trader or the real
estate
speculator.
they are often inconsistent in their moral judgment. critics argue that the
enterprise
invites bribery and various other related forms of chicanery such as fixing games,
loading
dice, and colluding in internet poker. there is no doubt that a bit of this true.
Larceny
lurks in the hearts of many be they casino managers, bet cappers at a roulette
wheel, or
stock brokers with a soft spot for inside information. However, game-fixing
scandals in
the world of sports betting or malfeasance in internet poker are actually quite
rare and
limited in scope when compared with instances of financial fraud, insider trading
and
other forms of banking and brokerage misrepresentation.
Logically, institutionalized, controlled, casino gaming cannot be treated as
distinct in
kind from gambling in the larger, generic sense. it is incoherent to maintain that
if you
bet on Dallas beating the giants by more than three points you are a gambler but if
you
bet on the Japanese Yen dropping .11 against the american dollar you are an
investor. it
doesn’t make sense to criminalize poker on the internet, but still permit its
residents to
use web-based systems to wager on horseracing, bet on fantasy sports, trade stocks
and
buy and sell propositions on futures markets.
considerations of ethical conduct need to be carried out with an eye to the
dimensions
of flexibility and expectation. There are not definitive answers, but the EVF model

provides a coherent platform to engage in reasoned debate. the issues need to be

framed
8
Reed later was later implicated in a highly publicized case where his consulting
firm received over $1
million to lobby for several Indian gambling casinos (Edsall, 2004).
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68
in a context that recognizes that a large number of activities are, indeed,
gambling, that
they involve games where participants take risks, put things they value in
jeopardy, look
for avenues that lead to ultimate gain, and engage in these enterprises using
whatever
skills and talents they can bring to the table. Each of these games
There are not definitive answers,
but the EVF model provides a
coherent platform to engage in
reasoned debate.
needs to be viewed from a larger socio-economic perspective based
on whether the game is one with a positive or a negative EV and just
how flexible it is.
if the game is one where the participants’ actions play a
significant role in determining the outcomes and if, through
skill, knowledge and talent, an individual can play with positive
expectation, then the kinds of ethical, legal, legislative and
regulatory issues raised should be different in kind from those raised when the
games are
inherently inflexible –EV enterprises.
The EVF Model Applied to Poker
Poker is one of the more popular games played in organized settings. Estimates
vary but most surveys report that there are some 60 million people who play at
least
occasionally (including the canonical poker by the kitchen sink games) in the
United
States, another 6 or 7 million in canada and at least an additional 40 million in
Europe.
according to Fiedler and Wilcke (2012, Vol. 16, issue 1, pgs. 7-19), there are over
4.5
million who play regularly in real money games online and, until the recent legal
actions
taken against internet poker in the United States, which effectively curtailed the
use of
the internet to play poker for money as of april 15, 2011 (see US Department of
Justice,
2011), roughly 1.5 million americans were regular participants. Poker appears to be
as,
or more, popular than other more mainstream games such as tennis, golf, bridge or
chess.
But, despite its popularity, poker still has an overall negative
Despite its popularity, poker still
has an overall negative valence
associated with it.
valence associated with it. Some of this comes from its checkered
history which is replete with stories of card sharps on riverboats
scamming innocent travelers, of illegal games played in smoke-filled
rooms run by unsavory characters and of wide-spread cheating.
Some of this true (Wilson, 2008) but was not and is not today the
norm. the overwhelmingly common poker session has always been
a low-stakes game played among persons with either a common interest in the game in

organized, legal card rooms or an informal gathering among friends in private

homes,
country clubs and social organizations. the vast majority of the tens of millions
who play
the game today do so in these distinctly benign settings.
Yet, the game has been stigmatized in ways that other games have not. it is
diagnostic
that when casinos became legal in nevada and later in several other states, they
included
poker but not bridge, backgammon or chess among their offerings. in the public eye,

poker is implicitly lumped in with games in cell a; these others are viewed as
skill
based competitions and, for the most part, the gambling element is not raised.
However,
chess, backgammon and bridge are routinely played for substantial amounts of money.

anyone who has spent time in a chess club in a major urban setting or, perhaps more

ethnographically interesting, wandered through new York city’s famous Washington

Square Park on a warm spring day, will see dozens of chess games being played for
considerable amounts. Bridge is typically played for substantial sums as, for that
matter,
are a vast array of traditional sports such as golf, tennis, bowling and, of
course, billiards.
in passing, it is worth noting that poker has been called a game that can only be
played for money which, so the argument goes, differentiates if from these other
enterprises, like golf or tennis. this is a myth, as the popularity of the ‘.net’
poker sites on
the internet shows. at any given moment tens, even hundreds of thousands of people
are
playing poker online for fun or for the sense of competition with no financial
payoff.
this cultural isolation of poker is, as the EVF model makes clear, traceable to a
category error. it has been treated in legal, socio-ethical, legislative and
economic circles
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
69
as though it shared fundamental elements with cell a games. it does not. it belongs

with games in cell c, ones marked by features of risk and reward, chance and skill,
but
where the knowledge and talents of participants operate to determine whether the
game is
played with a negative or a positive EV – which brings up a question often asked:
To What Extent is Poker a Game of Skill?
it is important to be careful here. it is easiest to begin with
a number of straightforward facts. First, there are professional
poker players, people who make their living at the game much as
professional golfers, tennis players, chess players, bridge-experts
or a host of others who have mastered their specific games. Their
existence should be sufficient to dispel any notions about what cell
in table 1 poker belongs in. there are no professionals playing
games in cell a; there are many in cell c.
Second, analyses of online poker games have revealed an
interesting element: the actual best hand in poker only wins some
12% of the time. this is because the betting patterns in a hand
persuade the individual holding what would ultimately turn into the
best hand to fold. the notion that “cards speak” has some truth, but
in a real poker game they mostly remain silent.
third, similar analyses show that less than a third of all hands
go to a show-down where the remaining players reveal their cards
Poker is, unassailably, a game
of skill, one where the decisions
made by each participant
determine the long-term
outcomes. It has a measure of
chance, as does virtually every
other gambling endeavor, and,
while skill ultimately trumps
luck, it is important to keep in
mind that this skill element has a
strong temporal component.
to determine the winner. again, this result comes about because one player has
made bets
or raises that convince his or her opponents to fold even when they hold a stronger
hand.
these simple facts make it clear that strategic elements in the play of each hand
override
the chance elements, the ones that determined who was dealt what cards.
in addition to these fairly obvious factors, a number of recent empirical studies
have
been carried out that further reinforce the overarching role of skill. ingo Fiedler
and
colleagues (Fiedler, in press; Fiedler & rock, 2009) examined the data from the
vast sea
of hands and games played online. they developed the critical repetition Frequency
(crF) metric, which takes into account the importance of the temporal factor noted
earlier. the crF functions as a threshold for the number of iterations in each case
needed
to solidify the trends – that is, it damps the impact of random fluctuations. They
focused
mainly on mid-stakes games ($1 - $2 to $5 - $10) but looked briefly at games from
the
lowest (in the 1¢ - 2¢ range, known as micro-stakes) to the highest ($50 - $100 and

up, known as nosebleed stakes). the data overwhelmingly show particular players as
consistent winners, as one would expect in any game of skill. interestingly, the
variability
of skill levels or the edge that the best have over the others diminished as the
stakes were
increased. again, this is expected in games that call upon extremely high levels of
skill.
a recent study by Levitt and Miles (2011) examined the roi of two groups of poker
players at the 2010 World Series of Poker (WSoP). one group, made up of
professionals
who play poker for a living, was compared with another comprised of those who play
recreationally. Levitt and Miles (2011) reasoned that if poker was truly a game of
skill
(or in the, admittedly more awkward terms of the EVF model, could elevate a game
with a theoretical negative EV to one with a positive EV), it should be manifested
in the
returns from these two groups. What they found surprised even them. the amateurs
had
an overall roi of -15%; for the professionals it was +30%, a number that dwarfs the
best
returns from successful financial investments. As they put it, “The observed
differences
in ROIs are highly statistically significant and far larger in magnitude than those
observed
in financial markets.” Levitt and Miles’s (2011) linking of poker with financial
investing
f
its nicely with the EVF model.
Poker is, unassailably, a game of skill, one where the decisions made by each
participant determine the long-term outcomes. it has a measure of chance, as does
virtually every other gambling endeavor, and, while skill ultimately trumps luck,
it is
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
70
important to keep in mind that this skill element has a strong temporal component.
it takes, as Fiedler and rock (2009) noted in explicating the use of the crF
statistic,
a good bit of experience before its role becomes clear – just as it does it
virtually all
competitive settings such as professional sports, where playoff series are multi-
game
affairs, golf, tennis, chess and similar competitions where play continues for days
and
extends over many iterations.
Socio-Ethical Issues
the EVF model also provides a novel platform on which to discuss a host of social,

political, economic and ethical issues. the following are offered as additional
“intuition
pumps.”
1. Should we be concerned when games like lotteries, which are inflexible and
played with seriously negative expectation, are used by governments as forms of
(highly
regressive) taxation? as tomlinson (2003) reports, lower income groups buy more
lottery tickets and spend more of their total income on them than middle- and upper
income earners. those with annual incomes below $10,000 spend an average of 1.5% of

income on lottery tickets; the equivalent figure for those with incomes over
$70,000 is a
mere 0.18%.
Moreover, these games are often misrepresented to the players. as noted above,
with
a theoretical EV of -50% state lotteries have the poorest expectation of any
regularly
played game. But this number virtually never appears in promotional literature or
ads – and it is not even the full story. in practical terms it is far worse,
particularly in the
case of jackpot games. Large wins are not paid out immediately.
The EVF model also provides
a novel platform on which to
discuss a host of social, political,
economic and ethical issues.
the holder of the lucky ticket may either take the money spread out
over several years or receive a reduced lump payment. if the former
is elected, the state keeps the interest on the remaining winnings
that they hold, and the value of the annual payouts is reduced by
inflation. If the winner chooses the latter, the actual payout is far
less than the announced size of the jackpot. and in both cases the
winnings are taxed as income.
it is worth nothing that the United States is unusual in the way in which these
large
payouts are handled. In many other countries the win is classified as a “windfall,”
the
full amount is paid up front and untaxed. Since states retain 50% or more of the
proceeds
from ticket sales, the game has already been effectively taxed. a canadian who wins
a
large lottery will receive the full amount, in a lump sum and untaxed. an american
who
takes an equivalent prize spread out over twenty years will receive, in current
dollars and
after taxes, roughly 10% of the nominal win. Many anti-tax groups assail the
inheritance
tax claiming that it amounts to double taxation. But rarely (if ever)
Government policy on the
distribution and taxation
of gambling winnings has
significant but rarely noticed
consequences.
do they apply that argument to this practice of multiple taxation of
windfall income.
 there are legitimate questions about how the games that are in
cell a should be managed, advertised, promoted and regulated and
just what the role of government should be but there is little doubt
that they need to be handled separately from those in the other three
cells of table 1.
2. government policy on the distribution and taxation of
gambling winnings has significant but rarely noticed consequences. Take a notorious

example from horseracing. the policy of withholding taxes from large windfall
payouts
at the tracks has spawned a group known in the trade as 10% ‘ers. these people
will,
for a fee, front for winners of large exotic bets who do not wish to have their
identity
revealed to the irS. Some are marginal types whose real income is from drugs and
loan
sharking and they are using the irS gimmick as a way of showing what appears to be
legitimate income. Others use it as a source of personal income. They declare
fictitious
losses against these illusory wins and get back rebates from the taxes they have
already
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
71
paid – which, of course, were actually paid by the person who bought the winning
ticket.
government policy is encouraging criminal behavior and the government is not even
getting the tax revenues they believe they are.
3. a case can be made that the criminalization of games from both cell a and cell
C has led to a significant loss of tax revenue. Internet gambling is
a large and growing industry. to date, the largely negative valence
attached to these games has led governments to criminalize the
playing of them on the internet outright (as the state of Washington
has done) or to severely restrict them by imposing penalties for
f
inancial institutions that transfer funds to or from individuals and
the sites that operate them (as the UigEa does). there are various
estimates of the revenues that would be generated by taxing the
A case can be made that the
criminalization of games from
both Cell A and Cell C has led to
a significant loss of tax revenue.
profits of the online sites and most of them are nontrivial. Moreover, by
criminalizing
these activities, a host of additional, and largely hidden, expenses have accrued
in
legislative time, the establishing of legal offices to pursue those who violate the
laws’
dictates, the cost of pursing individual cases, etc.
governments routinely acknowledge the legitimacy of some games in cell c. they
regulate the activities of participants as well as of those who own and operate the

businesses, and they tax the profits. It would be logically consistent to do the
same with the
others in that group, rather than continue to view them as though they belonged in
cell a.
4. Should governmental bodies take legislative or judicial action to remedy some
of the inconsistencies currently enshrined in law? For example, the UigEa exempts
the use the Internet to wager on horse races but not dog races. It specifically
exempts
fantasy sports leagues but not poker. Washington State’s 2006 law criminalizes
gambling
on the internet with draconian penalties. Violations are a class c Felony,
punishable at
the same level as distributing child pornography or heroin possession. Because of
the
usual category error, poker is included while other cell c games are not. the law
makes
playing poker online for stakes less than 5¢ - 10¢ (the most commonly played
levels) a
serious criminal act.
5. Should enterprises that are productive be held to different
ethical standards than those that are nonproductive? on the face of
it institutionalized gambling looks like a nonproductive activity. it
doesn’t make anything except money – and it doesn’t really make
it so much as redistribute it. Someone who gambles on a small
business, perhaps by throwing together some electronic tinker
toys in their garage has, so the argument goes, at least a chance of
adding to the greater economic good.
But then again, casinos, racetracks and card rooms are not
Should governmental bodies
take legislative or judicial
action to remedy some of
the inconsistencies currently
enshrined in law?
supposed to produce anything. they are in the entertainment business. they render
services, like professional athletes or actors. Moreover, they add to the overall
quality of
life much like the Miami Dolphins or whoever is the latest rock star. and, they do
create
jobs and by doing so they do contribute to the emergence of a solid economic base
for a
community. the debate is a not simple one.
6. Is problem gambling an issue sufficiently serious that it should neutralize the

arguments made here? Pathological gambling is a recognized psychological disorder.

the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) of the american Psychiatric association

classifies it as an impulse control disorder. But the condition is a complex one.

This is
not the place for a full analysis of the issue but a few main points need mention.
First,
pathological gambling is relatively rare; the DSM gives a rate of, at most, 1% to
3% of
the population.9
9
Interestingly, in the UK, where gambling on a far wider set of propositions is
legal and betting
shops are as common as greengrocers, the British Gambling Prevalence Survey (2007)
found an incidence
rate of .6%, less than one-third the US. It might well be the case that the
negative aura of gambling in the
United States makes it appear more alluring than in societies where is accepted as
an unexceptional part of life
thereby increasing the incidence of psychopathology.
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
72
Second, the DSM restricts the diagnosis to instances not accompanied by mood
disorders such as mania or thought disorders such as grandiosity. However, when
public
evaluations of the incidence of problem gambling are made this nicety is not always

observed leaving some to believe that problem gambling itself is more common than
it is.
third, pathological gambling is a classic co-morbid disorder.
On the face of it institutionalized
gambling looks like a
nonproductive activity. It doesn’t
make anything except money –
and it doesn’t really make it so
much as redistribute it.
that is, it often occurs together with a variety of other psychological
disorders, in particular mood disorders, attention-deficit
hyperactivity disorder, narcissism, antisocial personality disorder,
borderline personality disorder and alcohol, drug and other forms of
substance abuse.
Fourth, the problematic aspects of pathological gambling are
not restricted to gambling in the sense of engaging excessively in
Cell A games. The difficulties are found through the many focused
enterprises people engage in. Most of these tendencies and behaviors
can be seen, for example, in lawyers who are maniacally focused on
their careers, stock brokers who are striving for success, in artists
obsessed with expressing their creativity, even academic researchers often neglect
family
and social lives to pursue their work. to appreciate the analogy here, the
following is the
list of the diagnostic criteria provided by the DSM for pathological gambling. When
five
or more are present the diagnosis of a disorder is deemed appropriate. in each, the
word
gambling was removed, and “currency exchange” or a synonym inserted.
• The individual is preoccupied with currency exchanges, has frequent thoughts
about
past experiences, plans upcoming ventures and thinks of ways to get money to invest
• Larger or more frequent wagers are made to achieve the desired experience
• Efforts to stop investing in currency futures or even cutting back on investment

opportunities are unsuccessful

• Irritability and restlessness is associated with such attempts
• The subject uses currency exchange episodes to relieve dysphoric mood or escape
problems
• Losses are often followed by increased investments to try to recoup
• Often the individual will lie to family and even therapists about the extent of
involvement in currency exchange markets
• Forgery, theft and fraud are committed to obtain funds for future operations or
to
recover investment losses
• Significant relationships, jobs or other opportunities have been put in jeopardy

because of continued investments in currency exchanges

• Appeals to others are made for funds to relieve the financial situation caused
by
investments made in currency exchanges
the point is not to deny the existence of a psychiatric disorder that, while
uncommon,
can be serious and refractory to treatment, it is merely to point out that the
problem is not
one ineluctably linked with games that are traditionally called gambling. it is a
pattern
than manifests itself in a host of human activities. the manner in which these
criteria
characterize nick Leeson is quite compelling.
in short, it is likely that if all institutionalized gambling (i.e., the games in
cell a plus
a few others that we have put in cell c) were to suddenly cease we would likely not
see
a diminution in the overall level of maladaptive behavior – merely a redistribution
of it.
7. Finally, what should the role of government be in the regulation of activities
that
involve free choice by its adult citizens? this is an issue with serious
implications for
social and political philosophy. it is worth noting that those who argue most
passionately
against the spread of institutionalized gambling often ground their arguments in
either
theology and/or conservative political philosophy.
the former approach is understandable to the extent that Biblical and Koranic
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
73
texts share the classification rules with many contemporary theologians. The latter
is
something of an anomaly. the classic conservative position has, historically,
favored a
smaller and less intrusive government, one that respects the rights
of adults to make measured choices on their own and accept the
consequences of their decisions. Yet, oddly, those who openly
espouse this political position are the ones who have been most
vigorously opposed to gambling.
Summary
gambling is not a singular activity, nor is it a term that
embraces a small number of games that take place in restricted
venues. it is a large, inclusive group of games and enterprises, ones
that need to be viewed in a somewhat Wittgensteinian framework
(Wittgenstein, 1953) where it is characterized by prototypical
activities with in-principle, identifiable underlying dimensions. If
this is done carefully, it should be possible to identify the games
that fit the various categories, see where they lie on the two
dimensions of Expected Value and Flexibility, and begin to unpack
the legislative, legal, and, ultimately, the ethical, moral issues that
pertain.
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal ♦ Volume 16 Issue 1
The classic conservative position
has, historically, favored a
smaller and less intrusive
government, one that respects
the rights of adults to make
measured choices on their own
and accept the consequences of
their decisions. Yet, oddly, those
who openly espouse this political
position are the ones who have
been most vigorously opposed to
gambling.
74
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Optimal sports betting strategies in practice:

an experimental review
Matej Uhr´ ın, Gustav ˇ Sourek, Ondˇ rej Hub´ aˇ cek, Filip ˇ Zelezn´ y
arXiv:2107.08827v1 [q-fin.PM] 15 Jul 2021
Department of Computer Science
Czech Technical University in Prague
Abstract
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting
investment based on
modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting,
the formal investment
strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. The underlying
purpose of the
reviewed modifications is to mitigate the additional risk stemming from the
unrealistic mathematical
assumptions of the formal strategies. We test the resulting methods using a
unified evaluation protocol
for three sports: horse racing, basketball and soccer. The results show the
practical necessity of the
additional risk-control methods and demonstrate their individual benefits.
Particularly, an adaptive
variant of the popular “fractional Kelly” method is a very suitable choice across
a wide range of settings.
sports betting, betting strategies, risk management, bankroll management
1 Introduction
Sports betting systems generally consist of two essential components– (i)
predictive models, generating
probabilistic estimates for the given match outcomes, and (ii) bankroll management
strategies, optimizing
the expected progression of wealth in time. In this work, we focus solely on the
latter.
 While much of the available research on betting systems is centred around the
predictive modelling part,
often completely neglecting the need for betting portfolio optimization, we show
that, given a predictive
model, the betting strategy has a major influence on the final measures of profit.
Consequently, a worse
model with a better strategy can easily outperform a better model with a worse
strategy.
Lacking a deeper understanding of the investment part of the problem,
practitioners often resort to trivial
practices such as various forms of flat betting. We show that these are inferior
to the formal strategies, not
just theoretically but also from a practical perspective. There are two basic
streams of research in the
formal approaches, stemming from information theory and economics, respectively.
The first, and the most
widespread, is the Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956), also known as the geometric
mean policy, maximizing
the expected long-term growth of wealth. The second is the approach of Markowitz’s
Modern portfolio
theory (Markowitz, 1952), balancing the criteria of expected profit and profit
variance as a measure of risk.
While mathematically sound, the formal strategies are based on unrealistic
assumptions. The most limit
ing assumption in their application to sports betting is the knowledge of true
probabilities of individual match
outcomes. Other complications of the problem include the multiplicity of outcomes
and parallel matches.
We investigate the existing modifications of the formal strategies proposed to
address the problems occurring
in practice and evaluate them experimentally in 3 different sports domains- horse
racing, basketball, and
football.
The paper is structured as follows. In Section 2 we define the concept of a
betting strategy and the
dimensions of the underlying optimization problem. In Section 3 we review the
related work touching
different facets of risk and bankroll management in betting. In Section 4 we
formally introduce the two core
strategies of Kelly and Markowitz. The modifications of the core strategies
proposed to manage the extra
risk occurring in practice are then introduced in Section 5. Finally, we
experimentally evaluate the strategies
in practical scenarios in Section 6 and conclude the paper in Section 7.
1
2 Problem Definition
In its core, sports betting is a simple stochastic game where the player p
repeatedly allocates a distribution
of fractions (fi ∈ [0,1],
i fi ≤ 1) of her current bankroll W ∈ R at time t ∈ N over possible stochastic
results ri ∈ R of a match, coming from a distribution Pr(ri) over the domain R of
the random variable R,
describing all the possible outcomes of the given match at time step t. Each of
the possible match outcomes
ri is then associated with so-called odds (oi ∈ R≥1) by the bookmaker b : ri → oi.
Should a particular
outcome i be realized (R = ri), a payoff oi · fi · W from the associated odds and
fraction is to be received
by the player p. In the opposite case, the player loses the allocated portion fi ·
W of her bankroll to the
bookmaker b. Each of the particular betting outcomes ri is thus binary1 in nature,
and the potential net
profit wi from allocation on the i-th outcome is thus
wi = oi·fi·W −fi·W with prob. Pr(ri)
−fi · W
(if R = ri is realized)
with prob. 1 −Pr(ri) (if R= ri)
giving an expectation
EPr
[wi] = Pr(ri) · (oifiW − fiW) +(1−Pr(ri))·(−fiW)
(2.1)
(2.2)
Clearly, the profits of the bettor and bookmaker are directly opposite and,
assuming a closed system of
bettors and bookmakers, this is a zero-sum game. The goal of both the player p and
the bookmaker b is
to maximize their long-term profits Wt→∞ as measured by their respective utilities
(Section 4). Given the
stochastic nature of the game, the natural desideratum of the player is to
allocate the fractions f = f1,...,fn
so as to target a high total expectation of profit W
EPr
[W] = EPr
wi =
i
EPr
[wi]
i
(2.3)
Note that, in this work, we assume the two players to take on the asymmetric roles
of market maker b
and market taker p, where the bookmaker b always starts by laying out the odds o =
[o1,...,on] for the
possible match results r = [r1,...,rn] first, consequently to which the player p
reacts with his best policy
for allocation p : ri → fi of her current wealth Wt. In contrast to e.g. the, less
common, betting exchange
setting, in this work we assume solely the strategies for the role of the market
taker p, which is the most
common setup for bettors in practice.
2.1 Betting Strategy
p = ˆ pi,..., ˆ
Aplayer’s betting strategy for a game with n outcomes is a function g mapping a
set of probabilistic estimates
ˆ
pn and bookmaker’s odds o = o1,...,on onto a set of fractions f = f1,...,fn of the
current
wealth Wt to be waged over the game outcomes r = r1,...,rn
g : (ˆ p,o) → f
(2.4)
Typically, the estimated distribution vector ˆ p comes from a probabilistic model
Pp of the player and is
similar to, yet most likely different from, the (unknown) true probability
distribution Pp = ˆ
Pr, Pp= Pr
(Section 2.3). The vector of the waged fractions f is then often referred to as
the portfolio over individual
“assets” i (Section 4.2)
 f = f1,...,fn
where fi indicates the portion of wealth Wt allocated to i-th outcome.
(2.5)
1Note this concerns an individual ri and not |R|, i.e. a match can have many
possible outcomes ri, but each ri has a binary
realization, resulting exclusively in either win or loss of the bet associated
with it.
2
2.2 Fixed Odds
Wefurther assume a so-called fixed-odds betting setup which, as opposed to e.g.
parimutuel setting (Hausch et al.,
2008), always offers known odds distribution o in advance of the game for the
player’s strategy g to calculate
with. In its most basic form, we can demonstrate the given setting on a simple
coin-tossing game as follows.
Example 2.1 Assume a fair coin-tossing game with two, equally probable, outcomes R
= {Heads,Tails}
Pr(ri)
ri∈R
= 0.5 for the coin falling r1 = Heads
0.5 for the coin falling r2 = Tails
The odds by the bookmaker b could then be set up e.g. as follows
b(ri)
ri∈R
= o1=1.9 for the coin falling r1 = Heads
o2 = 1.9 for the coin falling r2 = Tails
(2.6)
(2.7)
Let the bettor allocate a fixed wager, such as $1, on the r1 = Heads. She then
receives an extra w1 =
(1.9 −1)∗1 profit if the associated outcome r1 = Heads is realized, or losses the
placed wager $1 otherwise.
It is easy to see that this particular game is generally disadvantageous for the
bettor, and there exist no
strategy for her to make long-term profits, since the expected profit for each
outcome of the game is simply
negative:
E[w1] = E[w2] = 0.5·1.9· 1+0.5·(−1) = −0.05
(2.8)
This follows directly from the fact that the odds are unbiased and subfair. This
means that the distribution of
their inverse values Pb : ri → 1
oi
is proportional to the true probability distribution over the game outcomes,
but it does not form a probability distribution as the values do not sum up to 1:
i
Pb(ri) = 1
o1
+ 1
o2
≈ 1.05
(2.9)
Outof the three settings (Cover and Thomas, 2012): fair, subfair, superfair, the
subfair odds are typically
the only setting for a bookmaker to be able to generate profits. We will further
limit ourselves to this setting
as it is the only valid setup working in practice. The value of
K
margin =
 j=1
1
oj
−1
K
j=1
1
oj
(2.10)
is then called the bookmaker’s margin2 (also known as “vigorish”, “house edge”,
“cut” etc.), and represents
the negative expected value of the game given the probabilities Pb implied from
the odds are unbiased
estimates of the true outcome probabilities Pr. Note that this is a typical game
setting operated in the
gambling industry, such as in various casino games, where there is no space for
long-term profitable strategies.
However, we note that the situation in sports betting is principally different.
2.3 Biased Estimates
In Example 2.1 with a fair coin, both the bookmaker and bettor knew the true
outcome probability distribu
tion (i.e. Pr(r1 = H) = 0.5; Pr(r2 = T) = 0.5). This setting is very elegant from
mathematical perspective,
since one can calculate exact expected values of profits and consequently derive
optimal betting strategies
(Section 4). Such mathematically optimal strategies can be theoretically applied
in artificial environments
with handcrafted generators of randomness (e.g. the casinos). However, in the
context of sports betting,
and other practical settings such as stock market investing, this is generally
impossible. In this experimental
review, we thus focus on the scenarios, where the probability estimates of both
the bookmaker Pb and the
player Pp are biased w.r.t. the real outcome probability distribution Pr. Let us
consider an extension of the
coin-tossing game from Example 2.1 to demonstrate properties of such a setting.
2Often wrongly calculated as simply the remainder over 1 as PK
j=1
1
oj
−1
3
D|Pr,Pp|
Pr
[pr1
,..., prn
]
Pb
[pb1
,..., pbn
]
D|Pb,Pp|
Pp
[pp1
,..., ppn
]
Figure 1: A typical sports betting setting for a game with n outcomes, displaying
bookmaker’s probabilistic
estimates Pb and player’s estimates Pp, both distanced from the true distribution
Pr and from each other.
Example 2.2 Consider a biased coin-tossing game where the coin bias is unknown to
both the bookmaker
and the player. Let us set-up the bias such that
Pr(ri)
ri∈R
= 0.6 for r1 =H
0.4 for r2 = T
(2.11)
Let us further assume that the player p has a probabilistic model of the game,
producing biased estimates
Pp = ˆ Pr as
Pp(ri)
ri∈R
= 0.55 for r1 =H
0.45 for r2 = T
Finally, assume the bookmaker is also biased with his estimates Pb = ˆ
sets up the odds distribution o, lowered by a margin3 m = 0.05
1
Pb(ri)
ri∈R
= 0.65 for r1 =H
0.35 for r2 = T b(ri)
ri∈R
=
0.65
· (1 − 0.05) ≈ 1.46 for r1 = H
1
0.35
· (1 − 0.05) ≈ 2.71 for r2 = T
(2.12)
Pr,Pb= Pp, according to which he
(2.13)
Note that while the odds are still subfair, the bookmaker’s bias w.r.t. Pr now
creates space for exploitation,
since the true expected values are no longer purely negative.
EPr
[w1] = Pr(r1)·b(r1)−1 ≈ −0.124 for R = r1 =H
EPr
[w2] = Pr(r2)·b(r2)−1 ≈ 0.084
for R=r2 =T
(2.14)
i.e. the punter could make long-term profits if betting appropriate amounts on the
r2 = T outcome. However,
not knowing the true probabilities Pr, the player’s calculation of expected values
will now be biased, too
EPp
[w1] = Pp(r1)·b(r1)−1 ≈ −0.197
EPp
[w2] = Pp(r2)·b(r2)−1 ≈ 0.22
(2.15)
nevertheless, despite the expected values calculated by the punter w.r.t. her Pp
estimate being wrong, in
this particular setting, she correctly identified the positive expected value in
the r2 = T outcome and could
theoretically make a profit with an appropriate strategy modification (Section 5).
Generally, Pp = ˆ Pr and Pb = ˆ Pr
′
are going to be somewhat biased w.r.t. Pr as well as w.r.t. each
 other (i.e. Pp= Pb, as long as the player does not simply copy from the
bookmaker). The individual
biases can be captured by statistical measures, such as the KullbackLeibler, or
better yet JensenShannon,
divergences (Cover and Thomas, 2012), and the probabilistic setting of each game
for a particular match
can then be understood as a triplet of probability distributions over the
outcomes, as depicted in Figure 2.3.
3In practice, the distribution of margin would not be simply uniform as in the
example, but the bookmaker typically applies
more sophisticated distortion of the odds to secure even higher statistical
advantage.
D|Pr,Pb|
4
2.4 MultiplicityofOutcomes
Sofarwehaveassumedabinarycoin-tossinggameof twopossibleoutcomes.
Letusnowgeneralize into
annoutcomegame, suchas throwingadie. This representsmost real situations
insportsbetting, such
astheR={Win,Draw,Loss}outcomes
insoccer,orbettingonthewinnerofahorseracewithnhorses
(Section6.1). Moreover, one canpotentiallyassume that the individual gameoutcomes
areno longer

exclusive,suchasbettingonthefirstjhorses,or“over”jgoalsinsoccerformultipledifferent
valuesofj.
Tomakethegamerepresentationmorecompact insuchsituations,
agenericmatrixOrepresentation

hasbeenproposed(Bussetietal.,2016),wherethecolumnsofOrepresentthepossibleoutcomeass
ets,and
rowsrepresentthepossiblegameresults, i.e.
jointrealizationsofalltheoutcomes.Eachindividualelement
inOthenrepresentsparticularoddsforeachoutcomerealization.
Additionally,weincludeanartificialrisk-
free“cash”assetc,whichallowstheplayertoputmoneyaside
safely. Thisalsoallowstomodel situationswhere leavingmoneyasidecancostasmall
fractionofwealth
ineveryturn(causede.g.
byinflation),orpossibilitytoincreasethewealthbysomeinterestrate(e.g. ina
savingsaccount).

Thebettingstrategyg(Section2.1)cannowthusalwaysallocatethefullamountofcurrentwealth
W

amongnavailableoutcomeassets,n−1ofwhicharerisky,stochasticassets,and1beingtheaddedr
isk-free
cashassetas
g:(pk,On
k)→fn where
i
fi=1 (2.16)
wherekisthenumberofpossibleworlds, i.e. therearekpossiblejointoutcomerealizations,
inourproba
bilisticgame.Oddsforeachoutcomeassetineachofthekworldrealizationswiththerespectivep
robabilities
p=p1,p2,...,pkcanthusbefullyspecifiedinthecolumnsoias
O= o1 o2 ... on−1 c ,where oi=

   
oi,1
oi,2
...
oi,n

   , c=

  
1
1
...
1

   (2.17)
Example2.3 Considera football game,whereweassume3outcomesasR={W,D,L}, formingthe3
assetvectorsow,od,ol,wherethebookmakersetstheoddstoow,od,ol,
respectively.TheoddsmatrixO,
includingtheconstantcashassetc, thenlooksasfollows.
O= ow od ol c where ow=


ow
0
0

, od=


0
od
0

, ol=


0
0
ol

, c=


1
1
1

 (2.18)

Tosimplifynotationinfurthersections,wewillalsodefineamodifiedoddsmatrixρcorrespondi
ngto
excessodds, i.e.
removingthereturnamountoftheplacedwageritself,resultinginnetprofitW(Section2),
as
ρ=O−1 (2.19)
Notethat intheexamplescenariotheoutcomeswereexclusive, andthe“one-
hot”riskyassetvectors

reflecttheirexclusivenature,whichconsiderablysimplifiesthecomputationofoptimalstrat
egies(Section4).

Inthisreview,wegenerallyassumeindividualmatcheswithexclusiveoutcomes4butvaryingoutc
omemul
tiplicities(Section6.1)toexperimentallyassessthepropertiesofthestrategiesw.r.t.
thisdimensionofthe
problem.
2.4.1 ParallelGames
To further complicate thegame, approachingthe
realbettingsettingevenmoreclosely,wecanconsider

multipledicebeingthrowninparallel,eachassociatedwithaparticularsetofoutcomesandodds
.Naturally,
thisreflectstherealityofmultiplegamesbeingopenforbettingatthesametime.
Inpopularsports, such
assoccer, it isnotuncommontohavedozensofgamesavailableonthemarketsimultaneously.

4Notethattheexclusivenessofoutcomesdoesnotholdinthefurtherscenarioswithparallelgame
s.
5
While we can surely consider each of the games separately, such a simplification
can lead to sub-optimal
results. Although calculating with the true parallel nature of the opportunities
can be computationally
demanding for some of the strategies (Section 4.3.1), it should allow to alleviate
the risk by diversifying over
a wider portfolio at each time step of the wealth progression. In this review, we
consider both the sequential
and parallel scenarios to emulate realistic scenarios and evaluate the respective
advantages (Section 6).
2.5 Betting Dynamics
The betting dynamic represents the investment behaviour of the bettor w.r.t. her
bankroll W in time t,
which has a major impact on the progression of wealth. There are two basic cases
of bankroll management
to be considered– (i) additive and (ii) multiplicative (Peters and Gell-Mann,
2016; Peters, 2011a).
2.5.1 Additive dynamic
Additive dynamic corresponds to a simple fixed unit-based investment, where the
bettor’s wagers are decou
pled from her current bankroll Wt. To illustrate the setting, we can imagine that
the bettor receives a fixed
unit (e.g. $1) amount of money from an external source at regular time intervals
δt (such as a salary), which
she repeatedly invests into the stochastic game of betting, and accumulates
(additively) the prospective
returns wt · 1 from the unit investment in the, separately held, bankroll Wt. Her
wealth progression in time
t can hence be seen as
Wt =wt·1+Wt−δt
2.5.2 Multiplicative dynamic
(2.20)
In the multiplicative scenario, the bettor continuously reinvests the current
wealth Wt accumulated from
the previous betting investments, without any external source of profit. Hence her
progression of wealth in
time t can be seen as
Wt =wt ·Wt−δt
(2.21)
 The multiplicative dynamics plays an important role in the Kelly criterion
(Section 4.3), where the mathemat
ical optimality of the strategy is derived exactly from a repeated play of the same
game in the multiplicative
setting.
As the comparison of the two approaches appears problematic, due to the external
source of profit in the
additive scenario, we will further consider only the multiplicative reinvestment
setting, which is also more
realistic and sound for an independent evaluation.
3 Related works
The two most notable approaches to allocation of wealth across presented
stochastic assets, i.e. match
outcomes in sports betting, were introduced by (i) Markowitz (1952), with his
revolutionary concept of
balancing return and risk of a portfolio, and by (ii) Kelly Jr (1956), with a
criterion to maximize the long
term growth in a scenario where the same game is being played repeatedly.
Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to
information theory (Kelly Jr,
1956). Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly
portfolios and a generalization
of the Kelly strategy to maximize the proportion of wealth relative to the total
wealth among population
is discussed in (Lo et al., 2018). Additional mathematical properties were also
explored in (Latane, 2011)
and (Breiman et al., 1961; Thorp, 2008). From the economical perspective, Kelly’s
approach is often ex
plained through the use of a logarithmic utility function, which was famously first
introduced by Daniel
Bernoulli in (Bernoulli, 2011), where he pointed out that people do not make their
decisions according to the
absolute payoff, but w.r.t. the logarithm thereof. In (Luenberger, 2011) the
authors suggest that assuming
long-term goals, the logarithmic utility function is the only sensible choice for
a utility function. While not
necessarily incorrect, the phenomenological explanation of the choice of
logarithmic utility function seems
somewhat arbitrary, however.
In (Peters, 2011b) a different view on the Kelly criterion was proposed, where the
author criticized the
established evaluation of betting using the expected value of a portfolio, as it
is based on the unrealistic
6
idea of “simultaneous” evaluation of the, often exclusive, outcomes. Instead of
measuring the mean of a
statistical ensemble of possible outcomes, the author proposed to focus on what
happens to a single player
as the same game is repeated in time, following the notion of ergodicity in
dynamic systems (Peters, 2019).
The logarithmic transformation then emerges as the correct ergodic transformation
of dynamics of the game
in the classical reinvestment setting (Peters and Gell-Mann, 2016), providing a
well-founded explanation
for the observed phenomenon. Given the mathematically elegant yet somewhat
unrealistic setting, the
Kelly strategy has also been often criticised in many works (Samuelson, 1971,
2011; MacLean et al., 2010;
Samuelson, 1975).
 3.1 Extensions of the formal strategies
The strategies of Markowitz and Kelly have been re-explored by researchers in a
number of different ap
plication scenarios and many useful modifications have been proposed since.
Generally, the Markowitz’s
approach has traditionally dominated the world of quantitative finance, while the
Kelly’s approach has been
more prominent in the sports betting industry. In (Smoczynski and Tomkins, 2010),
a closed form solution
for the use of the Kelly strategy when betting on horse racing was explored.
Another practical extension for
betting on multiple simultaneous games was discussed in a number of works
(Whitrow, 2007; Grant et al.,
2008; Buchen and Grant, 2012), where various approximations for large bet
aggregations were proposed.
Modification of the Kelly strategy for betting exchanges is discussed in (Noon et
al., 2013), where ad
justments for both back and lay bets are presented. Additionally, the effect of
commission and maximum
bet constraint on resulting growth rate is discussed. The Kelly problem is
examined for spread betting
in (Chapman, 2007) and in (Haigh, 2000), where several counterintuitive effects
are discussed when using
the Kelly strategy for spread betting. Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory for
soccer spread betting is then
discussed in (Fitt, 2009)
Another important stream of research are works investigating extensions of the
Kelly strategy towards
the realistic setting of parameter uncertainty, such as (Baker and McHale, 2013).
A practical method to ad
dress the problem are so-called fractional Kelly strategies, the properties of
which have been investigated in
great detail in the works of (MacLean, Thorp, Zhao and Ziemba, 2011) and (MacLean
et al., 1992).Peterson
(2017), presents a decoupled Kelly strategy combined with an additional risk
measure. Kan and Zhou
(2007), introduced an optimal portfolio choice under parameter uncertainty for the
modern portfolio theory
(MPT). Interesting modifications with similar aims are Bayesian extensions of the
Kelly strategy proposed in
(Browne and Whitt, 1996; Balka et al., 2017; Chu et al., 2018). Similarly,
approaches based on probabilistic
risk constraints for limiting the probability of a “drawdown” were discussed in
(Busseti et al., 2016) and
(Mulvey et al., 2011). Finally, limiting the worst-case probabilistic scenario
using the framework of distri
butionally robust optimization was explored in (Sun and Boyd, 2018) and in
(Blanchet et al., 2018) for the
Markowitz’s strategy, respectively.
3.2 Predictive modelling
Since we consider predictive sports modelling a separate problem, we only briefly
review some papers on the
topic, with an extra focus on models related to those used for experiments in this
paper.
A traditional stream of research in predictive sports analytics are score-based
models based on various
explicit statistical assumptions. A football prediction model introduced by Maher
(1982), builds a statistical
model on the assumption that in a football match the goals are Poisson-distributed
and those of the home
team are independent of those of the away team. The author also introduced the
notion of teams’ attacking
and defensive strengths and how to use them for forecasting of the match results.
In (Dixon and Coles, 1997),
the Maher’s model is further extended and it is shown to make a profit when
combined with a simple betting
strategy. The authors also used exponential time weighting to discount the effects
of past results, while
in (Maher, 1982) the strength of the team is considered to be time-invariant. In
(Rue and Salvesen, 2000),
the authors used a Brownian motion to bind together the strength parameters of the
teams in consecutive
rounds. The model is then used for betting with a variant of the MPT strategy.
Egidi et al. (2018), presents
a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model with the scoring rates of the teams being
represented by convex
combinations of parameters estimated from historical data and betting odds. In
(Groll and Abedieh, 2013)
7
the authors analyze the explanatory power of bookmakers’ odds using pairwise
generalized linear mixed
Poisson model.
Another modern approach for match outcome predictions are non-parametric and
feature-based ma
chine learning models. Haghighat et al. (2013), provides a review of machine
learning techniques used in
outcome predictions of sports events while pointing out some common problems and
misconceptions. In
the horse racing domain, a popular logit-based model, combining both “fundamental
features” and “odds
derived” features into a single prediction system, was presented by Benter (2008).
This model was also
a strong inspiration for the horse racing model evaluated in this paper. In the
domain of soccer, a recent
review (Hubacek, Sourek and Zelezny, 2019) discusses a diversity of the common
approaches. Notable exam
ples include models from the 2017 Soccer Prediction Challenge (Dubitzky et al.,
2019). The winning model
from the challenge utilized a boosted tree learner based on an ensemble of score-
derived features and simpler
ranking and statistical models (Hubacek, Sourek and Zelezny, 2019b). This model
was also directly used for
the soccer betting experiments reported in this paper. In predictive basketball
modelling, it is common to
use detailed box-score statistics that are available for the high exposure
leagues. Based on diverse features,
Miljkovi´c et al. (2010), evaluated their model on the NBA, while Ivankovi´c et
al. (2010) used a neural net
work to predict match outcomes in the League of Serbia. An advanced convolutional
neural architecture was
then learned over a, so far biggest, set of basketball games in (Hubacek, Sourek
and Zelezny, 2019a). We
again directly utilize this basketball model in this paper.
4 Betting Strategies
In the existing literature, the betting strategies range from simple informal
techniques, such as flat betting,
to the formal approaches, represented mainly by the Markowitz’s Modern portfolio
theory (Markowitz, 1952)
 and the Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956), coming from an economical and
information-theoretic views of the
problem, respectively.
4.1 Informal Strategies
In sports betting practice, most of the focus among punters is being put on the
search for outcomes with
positive expected value (“value bets”), and the importance of the subsequent
investment strategy has often
been neglected. Consequently, rather than formal strategies, one can encounter
simplistic heuristics such
as (Hubacek, 2017):
• Bet a fixed fraction on favourable odds.
• Bet a fixed fraction on the opportunity with maximal expected value.
• Bet a fraction equal to the absolute discrepancy between player’s and
bookmaker’s estimates.
• Bet a fraction equal to the relative discrepancy between player’s and
bookmaker’s estimates.
• Bet a fraction equal to the estimated probability of winning.
Lacking any formal foundation, these approaches have been shown generally inferior
to the formal strate
gies, both theoretically and in practice (Hubacek, 2017). For completeness, we
chose to re-validate the reports
by selecting the previously best performing informal strategies of (i) betting
fraction w.r.t. the maximal dis
crepancy (“AbsDisc”) and (ii) betting optimal fraction on the maximal expected
value (“MaxEvFrac”) in
our experiments (Section 2).
4.2 Modern Portfolio Theory
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is a standard economic view of the problem based on
the idea ofthe expected
value of the profit, possibly transformed by a utility function reflecting the
user’s particular preferences. The
general idea behind MPT is that a portfolio f1, i.e. a vector of assets f =
f1,...,fn, is superior to f2, if
its corresponding expected profit (Section 2) is at least as great
E[ρ · f1] ≥ E[ρ·f2]
(4.1)
8
and a given risk measure risk : Rn → R of the portfolio, w.r.t. the given odds, is
no greater
risk(f1|ρ) ≤ risk(f2|ρ)
(4.2)
This creates a partial ordering on the set of all possible portfolios. Taking the
portfolios that no other
portfolio is superior to gives us a set of “efficient portfolios” Θ (Markowitz,
1952). In simple terms, we trade
off the expected profit − risk by maximizing the following
maximize
f∈Rn
(E[ρ·f]−γ ·risk(f|ρ))
where γ is a hyperparameter reflecting the user’s preference for risk.
(4.3)
In the most common setup, the risk of a portfolio f is measured through the
expected total variance
of its profit V ar[ρ · f] = fTΣf, based on the given covariance matrix Σn n of net
profit of the individual
assets. Note that in the case of independent outcomes (Section 2.4), this reduces
to a diagonal matrix with
the variance of each binary asset’s profit, corresponding to the result ri,
following from the given odds oi
and the underlying Bernoulli distribution as Σ(i,i) = ˆ
Pr(ri) · (1 − ˆ
Pr(ri)) · ρ2
i,i. MPT can generally thus be
expressed as the following maximization problem
maximize
f∈Rn
subject to
E[ρ · f] −γ ·fTΣf
n
i=1
fi = 1, fi ≥ 0
(4.4)
Apart from the variance Var[w] of the potential net returns w = ρ · f, different
risk measures have
been proposed (Markowitz, 1952), such as standard deviation σ(w) = V ar[w] and
coefficient of variation
CV(w) = σ(w)
E[w] . Generally, there is no agreed-upon measure of risk and the choice is thus
left to the user.
The MPTapproach is often criticized for the disputable choice of risk, which can
be perceived as a formal
weakness of the approach (Peters and Gell-Mann, 2016), since in many domains the
risk is not easy to define.
Moreover, the direct maximization of expected profit can be misleading in games,
where the distribution of
potential profits is highly skewed, i.e. where the mean profit is very different
from the median. This situation
naturally occurs in the multiplicative dynamics setting, where maximization of
expected value may lead to
undesirable outcomes (Peters and Gell-Mann, 2016).
4.2.1 Maximum Sharpe Strategy
Apart from the choice of the risk measure, the inherent degree of freedom in MPT
is how to select a particular
portfolio from the efficient frontier Θ (based on the choice of γ). Perhaps the
most popular way to avoid the
dilemma is to select a spot in the pareto-front with the highest expected profits
w.r.t. the risk. For the risk
measure of σ(w), this is known as the “Sharpe ratio”, generally defined as
E[w] −rf
σ(w)
(4.5)
where E[w] is the expected return of the portfolio, σ(w) is the standard deviation
of the return, and rf is
a “risk-free rate”. Since there is no risk-free investment in sports betting, we
can neglect it and reformulate
the optimization problem as
maximize
f∈Rn
subject to
E[ρ · f]
fTΣf
n
i=1
fi = 1,fi ≥ 0
the solution of which we will further refer to as the “MSharpe” strategy.
(4.6)
The variance-based choices of risk have been often criticized as they penalize
excess losses as well as
excess returns, which is obviously undesirable. Moreover, the calculation of the
MaxSharpe solution is also
quite sensitive to errors in the probabilistic estimates, and can often be biased
towards extreme solutions,
requiring some additional form of control5. Nevertheless, it remains a very
popular investment practice,
which we include in our experiments.
5E.g. a strategy with no wagers placed would have zero variance resulting into an
infinite Sharpe ratio.
9
4.3 Kelly Criterion
The Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956; Thorp, 2008) is based on the idea of expected
multiplicative growth in
the reinvestment setting (Section 2.5.2), so that a portfolio f is chosen such
that the long-term value of
the resulting, continuously reinvested, wealth Wt is maximal (in an infinite
horizon of t). Note that in this
scenario we assume that the same portfolio is going to be presented at each time
step. For its multiplicative
nature, it is also known as the geometric mean policy, emphasizing the contrast to
the arithmetic mean
approaches based on the expected value.
The two can, however, be looked at similarly with the use of a logarithmic
“utility function”, transforming
the geometric into the arithmetic mean, and the multiplicative into the additive
setting, respectively. The
problem can then be again expressed by the standard means of maximizing the
expected value as
maximize
f∈Rn
subject to
E[log(O · f)]
n
i=1
fi = 1, fi ≥ 0
Note that, in contrast to MPT, there is no explicit term for risk here, as the
notion of risk is inherently
encompassed in the growth-based view of the wealth progression, i.e. the long-term
value of a portfolio that
is too risky will be smaller than that of a portfolio with the right risk balance
(and similarly for portfolios
that are too conservative).
The calculated portfolio is then provably optimal, i.e. it accumulates more wealth
than any other portfolio
chosen by any other strategy in the limit of t. However, this strong result only
holds given, considerably
unrealistic, assumptions (Kelly Jr, 1956; Thorp, 2008; Peters and Gell-Mann,
2016). Similarly to MPT, we
assume to know the true probability distribution of game outcomes, and
additionally we assume that:
1. we are repeatedly presented with the same games.
2. we play for an infinite amount of time.
Despite the fact that these conditions are impossible to meet in practice, the
Kelly strategy is very popular,
and its various modifications (Section 5) are prevalent among bettors in practice.
4.3.1 Quadratic Approximation
Exact numerical calculation of the Kelly strategy is often time-consuming,
especially when numerous runs
 through a large dataset of games is necessary. A practical approach to this issue
has been proposed (Busseti et al.,
2016) based on a quadratic approximation of the Kelly’s logarithmic utility using
the Taylor series expansion.
Let us first recall the following.
log(1 + x) = x− x2
2 +...
(4.7)
Next, following (Busseti et al., 2016), we make an assumption for the Taylor
approximation that our net
profits are not too far from zero ρ · f ≈ 0 and express the logarithmic part of
the Kelly criterion as
follows (Busseti et al., 2016).
log(O · f) = log(1+ρ·f)
allowing us to proceed with the Taylor expansion as
log(1 + ρ· f) = ρ·f − (ρ·f)2
2
(4.8)
+...
(4.9)
Now taking only the first two terms from the series we transform the expectation
of logarithm into a new
problem definition as follows
maximize
f∈Rn
subject to
E[ρ · f − (ρ·f)2
2 ]
n
i=1
fi = 1.0, fi ≥ 0
(4.10)
10
We will further refer to this strategy as the “Quadratic Kelly”. Note that,
interestingly, the problem can
now be rewritten to
maximize
f∈Rn
.
(4.11)
E[ρ · f] − 1
2 E[fT(ρ· ρT)f]
corresponding to the original MPT formulation from Equation 4.4 for the particular
user choice of γ =
1
2
It follows from the fact that the geometric mean is approximately the arithmetic
mean minus 1
2 of
variance (Markowitz, 1952), providing further insight into the connection of the
two popular strategies of
Kelly and Markowitz, respectively.
5 Risk Management Practices
The core issue with the mathematical strategies is that their calculations are
carried out as if the true
probability distribution over the outcomes was known. Moreover, they are often
sensitive to even the slightest
error in the estimates. Here we review simple remedies that have been proposed on
top of the original
 strategies to manage the extra risk stemming from the underlying errors, as well
as more sophisticated
techniques incorporating the uncertainty of estimates directly into computation of
the strategies.
5.1 Maximum bet limit
Constraining the maximal wager to a fixed value m is probably the most trivial
risk-avoiding technique one
can encounter, which is probably also why it is the most prevalent one in
practice. Moreover, the maximum
bet limit often comes from the side of the bookmaker, too, constraining the risk
he undertakes w.r.t. each
bettor. We thus include this empirical method in our portfolio to see if
saturating the invested amount by
a fixed threshold might actually improve the overall wealth progression of the
existing strategies if properly
tuned.
5.2 Fractional Approaches
Fractioning is an example of a simple heuristic that is nevertheless very
efficient in practice. The main idea
behind any “fractional approach” is to bet only a fraction ω of the calculated
portfolio and leave the rest of
1 −ω in the cash asset for security. We define such a trade-off index ω for a
portfolio as
fω =ωf1..n−1 +(1−ω)fn
(5.1)
where f1..n−1 corresponds to the risky part of the portfolio with stochastic
assets and fn is the cash asset,
as introduced in Section 2.4.
The fractional approach is mostly used with the Kelly strategy (MacLean, Ziemba
and Blazenko, 2011;
Thorp, 2011), where for ω = 0.5 it is famously referred to as “half-kelly” by
practitioners. Nevertheless,
the choice of ω should depend on the actual distributions and preferences for
risk. The same idea of taking
only a fraction of the calculated portfolio can generally be applied to any
strategy, including MPT, and it is
overall useful whenever our estimates are erroneous.
5.3 Drawdown Constraint
A drawdown represents a more involved technique that actually modifies the
original optimization problem.
The idea of drawdown is to incorporate a special probabilistic constraint into the
Kelly strategy so as to
push the solution away from the more risky region near the ruin boundary. The
choice of the boundary is
then left to the user’s preference as an input parameter into the optimization
problem. The probabilistic
boundary is expressed as the following constraint
P(Wmin
t
<α) ≤β
expressing that the probability of our wealth falling below α can be at most β.
(5.2)
11
For the Kelly criterion, following the calculations from (Busseti et al., 2016),
the constraint is approxi
mately satisfied if the following condition holds
E[(O · f)−λ] ≤ 1 where λ = log(β)/log(α)
Which we can reformat as
n
 log(
i=1
pi · (oi · fi)−λ) ≤ log(1)
which can be further simplified (Busseti et al., 2016) into the following
constraint
n
log(
i=1
exp(log(pi · (oi · fi)−λ))) ≤ 0
which we can finally use in a convex optimization program.
5.4 Distributionally Robust Optimization
(5.3)
(5.4)
(5.5)
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) can be understood as a stochastic game
between a player and
nature, where nature picks a distribution Pr from some predefined ambiguity set of
distributions Π so as to
inflict maximum damage to the player’s utility. This fits quite naturally the
setting of sports betting against
a fixed-odds bookmaker, where, given the opposing utilities of both, the bookmaker
(nature) sets up the
odds so as to minimize player’s chances for profit. Generally, DRO is a paradigm
for decision making under
uncertainty where:
1. The uncertain problem inputs are governed by a distribution that is itself
subject to uncertainty.
2. The distribution is then assumed to belong to an ambiguity set Π.
3. The ambiguity set contains all distributions that are compatible with the
player’s prior information.
Being aware of the uncertainty in her own estimates Pp = ˆ Pr, the player now
modifies the optimization
problem to account for the worst possible scenario within the given ambiguity set
Π.
n
maximize
f∈Rn
subject to
min
p∈Π
n
i=1
pi · log(Oi · f)
fi = 1, fi ≥ 0
i=1
The ambiguity set Π can be defined in a number of ways. In (Sun and Boyd, 2018),
multiple definitions
are explored in connection to the Kelly strategy, such as Polyhedral, Ellipsoidal,
or Divergence based. In this
review, we further narrow our focus to the polyhedral ambiguity set, referred to
as the “box” uncertainty
set, which can be defined as
n
Π={pi | |pi −Pp(ri)| ≤ η ·Pp(ri),
i=1
pi = 1,pi ≥ 0}
(5.6)
i.e. constraining each probability pi to differ by up to a factor of η from the
nominal player’s estimate Pp(ri)
 of the probability of result R = ri.
6 Experiments
The main purpose of this review is to assess the performance of the individual
strategies (Section 4) and
their risk modifications (Section 5) in various realistic settings (Section 2) on
real data. We recall the used
strategies, describe the datasets, evaluation protocol, and discuss the conducted
experiments with their
results.
12
The strategies for the experiments were chosen with the aim to represent the
diverse portfolio of ap
proaches occurring in practice, with the goal to provide an unbiased statistical
assessment of their per
formance limits. The particular strategies chosen with their respective hyper-
parameters are specified in
Table 1.
Strategy
AbsDisc
MaxEvFrac
Kelly
MSharpe
KellyFrac
MSharpeFrac
KellyFracMax
MSharpeFracMax
Description
absolute discrepancy bet (Section 4.1)
max. EV outcome with fractioning (Section 4.1)
original Kelly strategy (Section 4.3)
original max. Sharpe ratio (Section 4.2.1)
Kelly strategy with fractioning (Section 5.2)
max. Sharpe with fractioning
Hyperparameters
None
ω ∈[0,1]
None
None
ω ∈[0,1]
ω ∈[0,1]
Kelly with fractioning and limiting (Section 5.1) ω ∈ [0,1], m ∈ [0,1].
max. Sharpe with fractioning and limiting
KellyDrawdown Kelly with the drawdown constraint (Section 5.3)
KellyRobust
Kelly with distributionally robust optimization
ω ∈[0,1], m ∈ [0,1].
α, β ∈ [0,1]
η ∈[0,1].
Table 1: Evaluated strategies and their hyperparameters
6.1 Datasets
We collected 3 datasets of different properties from 3 different sports- horse
racing, basketball, and football,
each containing a significant number of “matches” (races and games) for
statistical evaluation. Each of the
datasets is further accompanied with realistic models’ predictions tuned
specifically for each domain. Since
our focus here is purely on the betting strategies, we do not elaborate on the
models in details beyond their
predictive performances, which naturally influence the performance of the
strategies, too. For each of the
datasets, we present the following key properties.
• size- Dataset size (i.e. the number of matches).
• accb- Accuracy of the bookmaker b.
• accp- Accuracy of the player p (i.e. the predictive model).
• n- Number of possible match outcomes (n = |R|).
• odds- Range of the offered odds.
• margin- Average margin present in the odds.
• AKL- Kullback-Leibler advantage of the player.
The AKL is a statistical measure of the difference of the predictive performances
(cross-entropy) of the
player and the bookmaker, respectively. The metric was chosen as it plays a key
role in the performance
of the original Kelly strategy, where the growth of profit can be proved directly
proportional to the KL
advantage (Cover and Thomas, 2012).
6.1.1 Horse Racing
The data for horse racing were collected from the Korean horse racing market (KRA)
and provide 2700
races. The target market of the dataset is the “win pool”, representing betting
for the horse winning the
race. The schedule and participation of individual horses in the races varies
considerably. Moreover, there
is a varying total number of horses, and thus outcomes n, in each race, creating
an interesting challenge for
the strategies. We thus assume each race as a completely independent investment
opportunity and optimize
13
size
accp
accb
n
odds
AKL
2700 0.512 0.503 ∈[6,16] ∈[1.0,931.3]
margin
0.2
Table 2: Horse racing dataset properties
≈0.0022
the strategies accordingly. The model used was a form of conditional logistic
regression over various features
of the horses (Section 3.2). The particular dataset properties are specified in
Table 2.
The specifics of the horse racing dataset come mainly from the fact that it
actually originates from a
parimutuel market, meaning that the wagers are put into a shared pool from which a
certain portion is
removed as a profit for the house (margin). Nevertheless, we convert it into the
discussed fixed-odds setting
by assuming the last available state of the money pool to get the possible
payoffs/odds (Hausch et al., 2008).
As a result, the “bookmaker’s” estimate in this case is hence made up entirely
from public opinion, and is
noticeably less accurate. This provides space for statistical models to gain
predictive KL-advantage on the
one hand, however, on the other hand, the margin is also considerably higher.
6.1.2 Basketball
Next domain we selected is basketball, where we collected box score data from
matches in the US National
 Basketball Association (NBA). The dataset consists of 16000 games ranging from the
year 2000 to 2015. The
NBA league has a regular schedule of the matches, where each team plays repeatedly
with every other team
in so-called “rounds”. To emulate the market setting in a realistic fashion, we
assume rounds as groups of
10 scheduled matches to repeatedly appear on the market in parallel (Section
2.4.1). The target market here
was the “money-line”, i.e. betting on the winner of each match. The specifics of
the data then comes from
the fact that there are only 2 outcomes in the game, directly corresponding to the
most basic coin-tossing
setup of the problem (Section 2). The model used was a convolutional neural
network based on detailed
statistics of the individual players and teams (Hubacek, Sourek and Zelezny,
2019a). The odds then come
from the closing line of the Pinnacle 6 bookmaker. Notice that in this case the
model is not as accurate as
the bookmaker, and is thus in a general KL-disadvantage. The particular dataset
properties are specified in
Table 3.
size
accp accb n margin
odds
AKL
16000 0.68 0.7 2 0.038 ∈[1.01,41] ≈−0.0146
Table 3: Basketball dataset properties
6.1.3 Football
The football dataset consists of 32000 matches collected from various leagues all
over the world. The schedule
in each football league is similar in spirit to that of the NBA, and so we again
assume the market setting with
10 parallel games (Section 2.4.1). The target market was again money-line betting.
The outcomes in football
include a draw, resulting in a moderate n = 3 setting. Interestingly, the original
dataset (Dubitzky et al.,
2019) contained merely the historical results of the matches, and the model has
thus been built purely from
score-derived features. Particularly, the model was a form of gradient-boosted
trees learner, winning the
2017’s Soccer prediction challenge (Dubitzky et al., 2019). The odds were again
provided by Pinnacle but,
this time, we took the more favourable opening line. Despite varying over
different leagues, the overall
margin is slightly lower than in basketball, and the model in a slightly lower,
yet still considerable, KL
disadvantage. The particular dataset properties are specified in Table 4.
6https://www.pinnacle.com/
14
size
accp
accb
n margin
odds
AKL
32000 0.523 0.537 3 0.03 ∈[1.03,66] ≈−0.013
Table 4: Football dataset properties
6.2 Evaluation Protocol
The models providing the probabilistic estimates were trained following the
natural order of the matches in
time, so that all of their estimates are actual future predictions, i.e. out-of-
sample test outputs for matches
unseen in the training phase.
For the actual optimization problems of the individual strategies, we have chosen
to work with the cvxpy
(Diamond and Boyd, 2016) as the main optimization framework. For each strategy, we
first solved the given
problem using the Embedded Conic Solver (ECOS) (Domahidi et al., 2013), and should
a numerical problem
arise, we proceed with solving the problem using the Splitting Conic Solver (SCS)
(O’Donoghue et al., 2016).
While many of the chosen strategies (Table 1) contain hyperparameters to be set,
we additionally tuned
each for the best possible performance via grid-search, too. The individual
hyperparameter ranges for the
grid-search can be found in Table 1. To provide an unbiased estimate of their
actual performance in practice,
we also followed a strict evaluation protocol for each of the strategies. This
means that we have (i) split each
dataset into training and testing subsets, (ii) found the best hyperparameter
setting on the training subset,
and (iii) evaluated the fixed setting on the test subset.
To makethe output profit measures (Section 6.2.2) more robust, both the training
and testing is evaluated
by generating 1000 separate “runs” through each subset, where the sequence of
games is randomly reshuf
f
led and 10% of games are randomly removed each time (the split between train and
test always remains
respected). We hence evaluate properties of each strategy on 1000 separate wealth
investment trajectories
through previously unseen games.
6.2.1 Hyperparameter Selection
To choose the best possible strategy setting on the train set, we looked for
hyperparameters with the following
criteria
maximize median(Wf)
subject to Q5 > 0.9
i.e. we always chose a strategy that reached the maximum median final wealth,
given that no more than 5%
of the wealth trajectories did not fall below 90% of the final wealth.
Hyperparameter settings that did not
meet the required criterion were simply removed from consideration. While the
presented hyperparameter
selection criteria might seem somewhat arbitrary and could be argued, our aim was
to follow the natural
desiderata of wealth progression for bettors in practice. That is to mainly
prevent the occurrence of ruin
(“survival first”), and then maximize the potential profits for the typical
(median) bettor.
6.2.2 Evaluation Metrics
For the actual final evaluation of the strategies on the test set, we chose a
range of diverse metrics to provide
more insights into the properties of the individual strategies and game settings.
The metrics are as follows
• median(Wf)- median final wealth position.
• mean(Wf)- mean final wealth position.
• min(Wi)- lowest wealth position.
 • max(Wi)- maximal wealth position.
• sigma(Wf)- standard deviation of the final wealth positions.
• ruin %- ruin percentage of wealth trajectories
15
forwhichwedefinearuinsituationasfallingbelow0.01%oftheinitialbankW0atleastoncedurin
gtheentire
investmentperiod. Notethatasopposedtotheoriginaldefinitionof
ruinintheKellystrategy(KellyJr,
1956),wehavechosenasmallnon-
zerothreshold,sinceinpracticethereisalowamountofmoneyeffectively
causingtheinabilitytoplaceaminimalbet,whichisaconstraintoftenpresentinthemarket.
6.3 Results
Finally,wepresentperformances (Section6.2.2)of the individual strategies
(Section6)overeachof the
datasets(Section6.1). Apart fromtheevaluationmetrics inthefinal
stateofwealthprogressionWf,we

presentthesummarizedwealthprogressiontrajectoriesforaselected“best”strategywithmaxi
malmedian

finalwealthforeachofthedatasets,todemonstratetheoverallbankrolldynamics.Theevaluati
onmetricsfor
horseracing,basketball,andfootballdatasetsarepresentedinTable5,Table6,andTable7,
respectively.
Thewealthprogressiontrajectories for thebest strategiesare thendisplayed
inFigure2, Figure3and
Figure4, respectively.
strategy median(Wf) mean(Wf) min(Wi) max(Wi) sigma(Wf) ruin%
AbsDisc 0.0019 0.03 4e-08 27.1 0.04 85.2
MaxEvFrac 0.86 2.13 2e-09 711 4.7 36.1
Kelly 4.11 15.6 7e-05 2167.8 59.8 0.6
MSharpe 3.92 17.8 9e-06 2231.1 48.3 12.1
KellyFrac 3.39 14.2 0.003 213.2 32.1 0
MSharpeFrac 3.28 16.9 8e-05 253.3 26.5 0.2
KellyFracMax 3.49 13.8 0.0057 168.1 29.3 0
MSharpeFracMax 3.41 15.2 0.0065 194.3 25.4 0
KellyDrawdown 3.3 13.7 0.009 112.4 22.4 0
KellyRobust 2.97 4.1 0.08 77.3 7.2 0
Table5:Finalwealthstatisticsofthestrategiesinthehorseracingscenario(Section6.1.1).
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1215
Races
0
10
20
30
40
Wealth

Figure2:WealthprogressionoftheKellyFracMaxstrategyinthehorseracingscenario(Section6
.1.1).
16
strategy median(Wf) mean(Wf) min(Wi) max(Wi) sigma(Wf) ruin%
Kelly 9.1e-6 1.8e-05 1.9e-20 3312.2 1.7e-05 100
MSharpe 1.3e-06 5.1e-05 4.1e-21 2911 9.7e-06 100
KellyFrac 2.4 2.7 0.11 24.1 1.34 0
MSharpeFrac 1.24 1.97 0.002 19.6 0.85 0
KellyFracMax 2.3 2.5 0.13 20.9 1.27 0
MSharpeFracMax 1.2 1.7 0.008 12.1 0.56 0
KellyDrawdown 2.21 2.9 0.14 29.1 1.3 0
 KellyRobust 1.39 1.46 0.23 10.9 0.45 0
Table6:Finalwealthstatisticsofthestrategiesinthebasketballscenario(Section6.1.2).
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7200
Games
0
1
2
3
4
5
Wealth

Figure3:WealthprogressionoftheKellyFracstrategyinthebasketballscenario(Section6.1.2
).
strategy median(Wf) mean(Wf) min(Wi) max(Wi) sigma(Wf) ruin%
Kelly 2.3e-09 5.2e-08 1.6e-21 5844.2 2.7e-07 100
MSharpe 1.8e-10 3.0e-07 5.9e-27 2617 4.2e-07 100
KellyFrac 10.05 11.8 0.03 182 9.7 0
MSharpeFrac 9.9 13.6 0.016 211 9.1 0
KellyFracMax 10.03 11.2 0.007 144 9.2 0
MSharpeFracMax 10.1 13.1 0.005 193 8.7 0
KellyDrawdown 10.25 12.4 0.09 122 9.3 0
KellyRobust 6.2 7.3 0.28 27.7 5.6 0
Table7:Finalwealthstatisticsofthestrategiesinthefootballscenario(Section6.1.3).
Firstly,theresultsofourexperimentsconfirmthatthe, regularlyused,
informalbettingstrategies(Sec
tion4.1)areclearlyinferiortoalltheformalstrategies,inagreementwiththepreviousreport
s(Hubacek,SourekandZelezny,

2019a).Moreover,theyoftenleadtoruineveninasituationwithstatisticalmodeladvantage,as
reported
17
40
30
Wealth
20
10
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Matches
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14400
Figure 4: Wealth progression of the KellyDrawdown strategy in the football
scenario (Section 6.1.3).
for the horse racing dataset in Table 2, for which we decided not to include them
further.
As expected, the formal strategies based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) (Section
4.4) and Kelly
Criterion (Section 4.3) performed reasonably in the setting with a statistical
advantage AKL of having a
more precise model. However, since they are based on unrealistic mathematical
assumptions, their actual risk
profile might be unexpected in practice. Using any of the proposed practices for
additional risk management
(Section 5) generally led to a considerably lower volatility while keeping the
wealth progression of a typical
(both mean and median) bettor reasonably high. Also, following the mathematical
properties of the pure
form of both the strategies, they both lead to a certain ruin in scenarios without
statistical AKL advantage
of the model, which is exhibited in practice, too (Table 3, Table 4).
Onthe other hand, a smart strategy modification can generate profits even in the
statistically disadvanta
geous scenarios, as measured by the AKL. Naturally, this does not hold universally
and particular properties
of the underlying models must be considered, too, since there are surely
disadvantageous scenarios where no
strategy can make profits by any means (Example 2.1).
The insights from the experiments regarding the discord between the approaches of
MPT and Kelly
roughly follow the intuitions behind the individual strategies. That is that the
strategies based on the Kelly
criterion (Section 4.3) result in a generally higher median final wealth, while
strategies based on the MPT
(Section 4.2) result in a generally higher mean final wealth, corresponding to the
underlying expected value
based motivation. Interestingly, in the football dataset (Table 4) the mean final
wealth performance of MPT
is slightly lower than that of the Kelly-based strategies. However, we should note
that the hyperparameter
selection criteria (Section 6.2.1) can also be considered slightly biased in
favour of the Kelly approaches.
From a practical perspective, the drawdown modification of the Kelly criterion
(Section 5.3) seemed to
perform very similarly to the, much less sophisticated, fractional approach
(Section 5.2), further supporting
its popular use in practice. While the distributionally robust modification of
Kelly (Section 5.4) achieved
generally lowest final wealth scores, it was also the overall most stable strategy
with the highest minimal
f
inal wealth. This is in complete accordance with its pessimistic underlying
setting optimizing for the worst
case scenario, which might be appealing to highly risk-averse bettors.
18
7 Conclusions
In this experimental review, we investigated the two most prominent streams of
betting investment strategies
based on the views of the Modern Portfolio Theory and the Kelly criterion,
together with a number of their
popular modifications aimed at additional risk management in practice, where their
original underlying
mathematical assumptions do not hold. We tested the strategies on 3 large datasets
from 3 different sports
domains of horse racing, basketball, and football, following a strictly unified
evaluation protocol to provide
 unbiased estimates of the performance of each method while tuning their
hyperparameters.
The results of our experiments suggest the superiority of the formal mathematical
approaches over the
informal heuristics, which are often used in practice, however, the experiments
also revealed their weaknesses
stemming from the unrealistic mathematical assumptions, particularly the knowledge
of the true probability
distribution over the match outcomes. Consequently, when used in their plain
original form, the formal
strategies, i.e. the maximum Sharpe and Kelly, proved infeasible in almost all
practical scenarios with un
certain probability estimates. Particularly, the theoretically optimal strategies
often led to ruin instead of
maximal profit, calling for the need of the additional risk management practices.
The results of the subse
quent modifications of the optimal strategies then suggested that reasonable trade-
offs in wealth progression
can be found in actual betting practice with the appropriate techniques, even in
scenarios with worse model
predictions than that of the bookmaker.
Based on the experiments, we conclude that, for common practical purposes, the
most suitable option out
of the strategies reviewed seems to be the fractional Kelly, given that the
fraction hyperparameter has been
properly tuned to reflect the amount of uncertainty in each particular problem
setting. The approachachieved
the best, or close to the best, performance as evaluated by the chosen metrics in
most of our experiments
while being comparatively simpler than the other strategies. Our findings thus
further support its common
use in betting practice. The other common practice of setting a maximum bet limit
was inconclusive as it
improved the overall results in some domains (Table 5) while decreasing the
profits in others (Table 6). The
distributionally robust Kelly strategy then proved to be the safest in all of the
experiments, and can thus
be suggested to extremely risk-averse practitioners. The second safest strategy
was then to incorporate the
drawdown constraint, which also proved quite efficient in trading of the security
for profit.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge support by Czech Science Foundation grant. no 20-29260S.
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Beating the House:

Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets
Sathya Ramesh∗
arXiv:1910.08858v2 [econ.GN] 22 Oct 2019
Federal Reserve Board
sathya.p.ramesh@frb.gov
Ragib Mostofa∗
Rice University
rm48@rice.edu
Marco Bornstein∗
 University of Maryland
marcob@umd.edu
October 24, 2019
Abstract
John Dobelman∗
Rice University
dobelman@rice.edu
Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To
demonstrate that in
efficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that
generates above market
returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our
betting
strategy, we collected and examined a novel dataset of bets, and created a non-
parametric win probabil
ity model to find positive expected value situations. As the United States Supreme
Court has recently
repealed the federal ban on sports betting, research on sports betting markets is
increasingly relevant for
the growing sports betting industry.
Keywords: Sports Betting Markets, Casinos, Win Probability Forecasting
∗We would like to thank David Scott, Kathy Ensor, Michael Gordy, Benjamin Gardner,
and seminar participants from Rice
University and the University of Connecticut for their suggestions and
encouragement. Additionally, we thank the Center for
Computational Finance and Economic Systems at Rice University for research funding
and support. The opinions expressed
here are our own, and do not reflect the views of the Board of Governors or its
staff. Send correspondence to Sathya Ramesh,
Risk Analysis Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 20th & C
Streets, NW, Washington, DC 20551,
Telephone: (202) 973-6124, e-mail: sathya.p.ramesh@frb.gov
1 Introduction
Casino games are designed to make gamblers choose from a range of negative
expected value outcomes.
In the short run, a gambler may profit; however, in the long run, the house always
wins due to the Law
of Large Numbers. The sentiment of the house inevitably winning is paralleled in
financial markets by the
strong form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (Fama 1970), which states that it
is impossible to outperform
the market due to the informational efficiency of markets.
While there are some similarities in market structure between financial markets
and casino sports
books, there are also several key differences (Levitt 2004). In financial markets,
price is dictated by supply
and demand. However, in sports betting markets, each casino dictates the “price”
(odds ratio) at which
the “stock” (specific bet) will trade. Levitt stresses the importance of the
casino providing the right price
for each bet by mentioning that the bookmaker can be exposed to significant losses
if the price set by the
bookmaker is incorrect. Another key difference between financial markets and
sports betting markets is that
the Securities and Exchange Commission requires brokers to execute trades at the
National Best Bid and
Offer, whereas it is up to the individual bettor to discover which casino is
offering the best risk-reward ratio.
As Moskowitz (2015) notes, several papers1 study the efficiency of sports betting
markets, with the
evidence somewhat mixed. We define an inefficient sports betting market as a
market in which a betting
strategy consistently generates profit. (Snyder 1978; Sauer et al 1988;
Constantinou et al 2013). From our
analysis, we find that there are exploitable inefficiencies due to differences in
price offerings by individual
casinos. Unlike any of the aforementioned papers (which tend to focus on one or
two sports), we utilize
a single pricing model to identify mispriced bets across several sports (namely
the NFL, NBA, NCAAF,
NCAAB, and WNBA). We extend Levitt’s conclusion that bookmakers are more skilled
at predicting game
outcomes than bettors to the other major sports that we examine in this paper.
This assumption that
bookmakers are the most skilled at predicting game outcomes is key to formulating
our model as we chiefly
use information and data gathered from the entire market of casinos to take
advantage of the mispricing by
inefficient casinos. Due to our successful identifications of mispricings in
sports betting markets, we were
able to build a betting strategy that consistently generates profit across several
different sports.
1 Snyder (1978), Vergin and Scriabin (1978), Ali (1979), Losey and Talbott (1980),
Hausch et al (1981), Asch et al (1984),
Zuber et al (1985), Thaler and Ziemba (1988), Sauer et al (1988), Gandar et al
(1988), Camerer (1989), Golec and Tamarkin
(1991), Woodland and Woodland (1994), Dare and MacDonald (1996), Gray and Gray
(1997), Avery and Chevalier (1999),
Kuypers (2000), and Lee and Smith (2002) have commented on the efficiency of
various sports betting markets.
1
2 Terminology
Before diving deeper into the subject matter, we find it essential to define some
of the parlance involved
with sports betting.
2.1 Point Spread & Spread Bets
To paraphrase Stern (1991), the perceived difference between two sporting teams is
measured by the
point spread. For example, if Team A is determined to have a point spread of-6.5
when matched up against
Team B, then Team A is favored to beat Team B by 6.5 points. In this scenario,
Team A is the favorite (as
they are favored to win) and Team B is the underdog. A bet placed on Team A will
be a winning bet if
and only if Team A beats Team B by more than 6.5 points. Conversely, Team B will
have an inverse point
spread of +6.5 points. A bet placed on Team B will be a winning bet if and only if
Team B either wins or
loses by less than 6.5 points. The betting in this scenario is an example of a
spread bet. A spread bet is
designed to have even odds, meaning that chance of success and failure are equal
at 50%. For this reason, a
spread bet generally pays out 91 cents for every dollar wagered if the bet is
successful. The casino collects
the other 9 cents, which is called a “vigorish”. If there is an equal amount of
money on either side, then the
casino collects 9 cents for each dollar risked, and is exposed to no risk.
Spreads can also be understood in the following manner, where PFS represents the
Projected Final
Score of each team.
Point Spread = PFSFavorite −PFSUnderdog
(1)
Spreads often include the half point “hook” in order to avoid ties, as most major
sports (basketball,
football, soccer, hockey, etc.) do not have fractional point scores. In the event
that the spread is a whole
number (i.e. Team A is +6), and the outcome is Team A wins by 6 points, money is
returned to anyone
who bets on the game. This kind of event is called a “push”.
2.2 Moneyline Bets
The Moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win. Moskowitz mentions that
Moneyline bets pay
out various amounts of dollars depending on which team is bet. (Moskowitz 2015).
For example, if the
moneyline for Team A is-500 and the moneyline for Team B is +300, a successful
wager of 500 dollars on
Team A nets a 100 dollar profit while a successful wager of 100 dollars on Team B
nets a 300 dollar profit.
Our algorithm solely focuses on identifying mispriced moneyline bets.
2
2.3 Market Return
Defining average market return in the sports betting context is important since
this activity does not
lend itself to traditional financial return concepts, such as a comparison to
given benchmarks. A bettor’s
average return in this market will be equal to the mean return of their wagers,
weighted for bet sizes. Table
1 reveals that a bettor who randomly wagers on spread bets will have a mean return
of approximately-4.4%
for all sports, and a bettor who randomly wagers on moneyline bets will have a
mean return between-6.4%
and 0.8% for all sports. As 0% is included in all of the randomized moneyline bet
intervals for all sports,
we view the average market return as equal to 0%. With this definition of average
market return, we define
above average market return for sports betting to be long run positive returns.
Table 1 will be discussed in
further detail in the Results section.
3 Model & Data
3.1 Probability and Expected Value
There are 16 casino sportsbooks in Las Vegas that we obtained data from. For any
given sports game,
at most 16 casinos will provide point spreads and moneyline betting odds. The
point spread and moneyline
odds vary from casino to casino. Thus, from our obtained data, we end up with a
range of point spreads and
moneyline odds. As there are are a plethora of teams in College Basketball and
College Football, we only
considered games where one team was a member of a “Power Five” conference2. For
all other sports, we
considered all games between all teams, excluding pre-season (exhibition) games
but including post-season
(i.e. playoff) games.
Our algorithm utilizes this range of point spreads to determine the probability of
a team winning the
game. Unlike Stern, we do not assume that a team’s implied probability of winning
a game from the point
 spread is normally distributed. One limitation of Stern’s model is its ability to
only price games with the
absolute value of the spread less than six. Our model is non-parametric and allows
us to price moneyline
bets for any point spread. The following equation describes our Bayesian formula
for a team’s likelihood to
win a game, at point spread PS.
P(Win | PS) =Historical Win % of Teams with Point Spread = PS
(2)
This formula is the engine of our algorithm. We theorize that a team at point
spread PS will win at
2 The Power Five Conferences are defined to be the Atlantic Coast Conference, Big
Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference,
Pac-12 Conference, and Southeastern Conference.
3
the same rate at which historical teams at spread PS have won. Results that are
considered in determining
the rate at which historical teams win only include games that have concluded
before the game that we wish
to price. If we know the probability of an event, and we know the payout for
making a correct wager, we
can define expected value for a one dollar bet as follows.
Expected Value = [P(Winning)∗Payout]−P(Losing)
(3)
The expected value of a one dollar bet is defined as the probability of winning
multiplied by the payout
for winning, subtracted by the probability of losing multiplied by the money
wagered. Since the money
wagered in a one dollar bet is 1, the expected winnings are now solely subtracted
by the probability of
losing. This is how Equation 3 is formed. The expected value of a bet symbolizes
the expected money made
or lost from the bet. Theoretically, selecting bets that have a positive expected
value, and betting on them,
would generate profit over time. This is the foundation of our betting algorithm.
Clearly, calculating the probability and expected value requires the spreads and
payouts from Vegas
casinos and historical spread data and results (i.e. which teams won and lost).
Vegasinsider.com has spread
and payout data from Vegas casinos for many sporting events, as well as the
results of these events. In order
to properly price a game, we need the historical win percentage for teams at
various spreads. From a variety
of sites, we obtained historical spread data and results ranging from 1990 to
2017.
3.2 Algorithms
As mentioned earlier, a range of point spreads and moneylines are obtained from
vegasinsider.com. As
we assume that the bookmakers know how to predict game outcomes best and are
incentivized to provide
accurate prices (resulting in the market as a whole being informationally
efficient), we prefer to obtain the
most updated spreads and moneylines. Our data analysis agreed with this
assumption, and revealed that
bookmakers’ last update (i.e. whether a player was injured, etc.) generally
occurred within an hour of the
game. From this finding, we decided that the casino’s last update was the most
accurate indicator of the
various casino specified variables (point spread and moneyline payout), as it was
closest to game time and
thus contained the most recent information.
We have two slightly different strategies that utilize the range of spreads to
find the probability of
winning, which we will refer to as “Simple” (Algorithm 1) and “Weighted”
(Algorithm 2). Both algorithms
utilize an input mapping of spreads to their respective probabilities, but the
Weighted algorithm also uses
an input mapping of spreads to their respective frequencies. The simple algorithm
returns the probability of
a team winning via calculating the simple average of the probabilities of the
unique spreads. The weighted
4
algorithm returns the probability of a team winning via calculating the weighted
average of the probabilities
of the spreads by using the frequency of the spread as the weighting factor.
Below, Algorithm 1 and Algorithm
2 show the pseudocode of each algorithm.
Place Algorithm 1 Here
Place Algorithm 2 Here
With the probability determined using either strategy, and the payout determined
as the maximum of
the moneyline payouts, we can utilize the expected value formula in Equation 3 to
find the expected value
of picking a team to win a game. If our probability calculations are correct, and
thus our expected value
computations, we should make money by wagering on bets with positive expected
values.
3.3 Epsilon and Expected Value Thresholds
As the returns in Table 2 will demonstrate, simply betting on all games with
positive expected value
generates positive return on investment for three out of five sports when the
simple algorithm is used to
calculate probability of winning, and five out of five sports when the weighted
algorithm is used to calculate
the probability of winning. This finding implies that there are inefficiencies in
the market, as there exists
a method of obtaining positive returns. For reference, randomized betting returns
on the same data are
provided in Table 1. Both of these tables will be analyzed in further detail in
the Results section of the
paper. From data analysis, we were able to make improvements on our model.
The first improvement on our model regards the issue of predicting games with
large spreads. This
scenario is why Stern’s model works best pricing bets with the absolute value of
the spread less than six, as
the tails are hard to predict. If the spread is large, it implies that one team is
heavily favored to beat the other
team, and our model lacks the historical sample size at such large spreads to
create a realistic probability
estimate. Additionally, casinos make the payouts for betting on underdogs in this
scenario ludicrously high,
resulting in the model generating a high expected value for underdogs in these
cases.
To account for the effect of these games in the tails, we created the “Epsilon
Threshold”. The goal
of the Epsilon Threshold is to provide a symmetric set of bounds for the
probabilities of teams winning
games that we are willing to bet on when the bet has positive expected value. For
bets outside the bounds,
we always go with the probability favorite. After determining which Epsilon Value
yields the highest total
return on investment, we can define the optimal bettable range of winning
percentages as: (.5 − ǫ,.5 + ǫ).
The optimal Epsilon value varies significantly from sport to sport.
5
The second improvement we designed is the “Expected Value Threshold”. Expected
Value Threshold
is the the value of Expected Value that a bet must be greater than in order to
place the bet. The default
Expected Value Threshold that we use is 0. In this default case, any bet that has
a positive Expected Value
will be bet on. In general, as the Expected Value Threshold increases so does the
return on investment,
which leads us to believe that the model is detecting large inefficiencies very
well.
3.4 Betting Algorithm
The Betting Algorithm (Algorithm 3) decides which team to bet on by examining the
expected value
of the bet and applying the epsilon and expected value thresholds. The algorithm
takes the following inputs:
the expected value of betting on the favorite, the expected value of betting on
the underdog, the probability
that the favorite wins, the probability that the underdog wins, the value of the
epsilon hyper-parameter,
and the value of the expected value threshold. The output of the algorithm is a
decision to bet on the
favorite, underdog, or neither team depending on the filtering criteria of
expected value, epsilon threshold,
and expected value threshold. Below, Algorithm 3 shows the pseudocode of the
algorithm.
Place Algorithm 3 Here
Return on Investment (ROI %) is computed outside of the algorithm by comparing the
algorithm’s
bets to the real world outcomes. If the algorithm picks a team that wins, the
winnings from that bet are
equivalent to the payout of the correct bet. Else, if the algorithm picks a team
that loses, the losses from
that bet are negative one (as every bet is a one dollar bet). Else, if the
algorithm doesn’t pick a team, there
is no bet, so there are no winnings or losses. The ROI % is the one hundred times
sum of the winnings and
losses divided by the number of bets.
4 Results
In order to provide benchmarks for our algorithm returns, we will first discuss
Table 1, which displays
the returns from randomly placing spread and moneyline bets. Next, we will
contrast these results with the
f
indings from Table 2, which displays the returns for our two win probability
models: Simple and Weighted.
Finally, we will showcase a year by year, sport by sport breakdown of the optimal
ROI with 2
Place Table 1 Here
Table 1 summarizes returns from three different strategies of randomly betting on
games. Algorithms
6
4 and 5 describe the pseudocode that implements each of these strategies. The
confidence intervals in each
of the panels are 95th percentile confidence intervals, and each strategy involves
betting on every game in
the sample data. From Panel A, it’s evident that randomly picking spread bets
(regardless of sport) returns
a mean ROI of around-4.4%. In this randomization approach, there is an equal
chance the strategy will
choose either team to cover the spread. In Panel B, the mean ROIs have more
variation than Panel A,
and the mean returns are close to 0% (excluding NCAAB). In the randomization
approach used to generate
Panel B, the favorite and the underdog have an equal chance to be picked to win
the game. In Panel C, the
mean ROIs are similar to Panel C’s, but generally smaller (excluding NCAAB). The
randomization approach
used to generate Panel C assigns a 67% chance that the favorite will be chosen to
win the game, and a 33%
chance that the underdog will be chosen to win the game.
From comparing all three panels, it’s clear that randomly placing moneyline bets
generally have a
larger returns on investment than randomly placing spread bets. From these
results, we chose to build our
betting strategies around successfully pricing and placing moneyline bets.
Additionally, it’s notable that all
of the 95% confidence intervals (excluding NBA spread bets from Panel A) contain 0
in the interval, as we
have defined an inefficient market as a market where a strategy can consistently
generate profit. Clearly, we
cannot reject the null hypothesis that sports betting markets are jointly
efficient for all of these sports for
any kind of bet.
Place Table 2 Here
This table summarizes returns from two win probability models: Simple and
Weighted. Algorithms
1 and 2 describe the pseudocode that implements each of these models. Algorithm 3
describes how these
probability models are incorporated into the betting process. Both Panel A and B
follow the same structure.
First, returns are reported for bets made sheerly on an expected value basis
derived from the specific
win probability model. Next, returns are reported for the betting algorithm with
the Epsilon Threshold
parameter. Finally, returns are displayed for the betting algorithm augmented with
the Expected Value
Threshold parameter as well as the Epsilon Threshold.
Returns always increase at each step, as we have selected the optimal values of
the Epsilon and Expected
Value Thresholds. We found these optimal parameter values by maximizing Total
Return, which is defined
as ROI * N, where N is the number of bets. In Panel A, the returns resulting from
strictly making positive
expected value bets according to the Simple model vary across sports, with the
NCAAF and NCAAB
having negative ROI. In comparison, the returns from making positive expected
value bets according to the
Weighted model also vary across sports, but are always positive. As
aforementioned, returns increase when
7
more parameters are included. The best conclusion to draw from comparing the
returns augmented with
optimal Epsilon and EV Thresholds for both algorithms is that neither model really
dominates the other.
This leads us to believe that choosing Simple or Weighted on a sport by sport
basis is probably the best
idea. Next, we’ll do a year by year breakdown of each sport’s ROI to provide
deeper detail and context for
the results.
Place Table 3 Here
Table 3 shows a year by year, sport by sport breakdown of optimal ROI (bets made
by betting algorithm
augmented with optimal Epsilon and Expected Value Threshold parameters), with the
S&P 500 ROI listed
as a benchmark. The All Leagues column shows a weighted ROI generated by summing
the Total Return
(ROI * Number of Games) for each sport, and then dividing by the total number of
games bet upon for
each year. We do not benefit from compounding, as we designate each bet as an
independent $ 1 bet.
Additionally, even though we are computing the necessary inputs, we do not utilize
Kelly’s criterion.
The sample of games we have excludes the early 2000’s, 2008, and 2018, which are
the years in the
21st century in which S&P 500 had a negative return. In general, the S&P 500
outperforms the sports
betting returns (excluding 2012 for Simple, and 2011 and 2015 for both
strategies). We present this table
as the foundation of the argument that sports betting should be viewed as an
alternative asset management
strategy, as it logically has no relation to the stock market (market neutral).
The next table will show the
yearly sample size, and we will explain why we are unable to collect data for more
past years.
Place Table 4 Here
This table supports Table 3, and provides the sample size of bets for each sport
in each year. In general,
as time goes on, we bet on more games. This is a feature of the data as we had to
web scrape most of the line
movements of the games from an internet archive (archive.org/web) as the site the
data were originally found
at (vegasinsider.com) does not display line movement data for any games outside of
the current year, and
it is challenging to find older line movement data. We are also limited by our
database of line movements.
In certain sports (WNBA), sufficient historical spread win probability data is
lacking due to the sparsity of
both games played and line movements measured. An interesting result of this
comparison of tables is that
the sample size of the Simple win probability model tends to be considerably
larger for more recent years of
data.
Comparing the results from Table 1 and Tables 2 and 3 highlights that the optimal
ROI’s from Table 2
are much larger than the mean ROI from Table 1. To show that the expected optimal
ROI’s are not a feature
8
of over-fitting the hyper-parameters (Epsilon Value and Expected Value Threshold)
to the sample data, we
utilized the bootstrap procedure. If we can show that the expected optimal ROI’s
for the betting strategy
are larger than zero with statistical significance, we have proved that the
strategy consistently produces
a profit. Proving that the strategy consistently produces a profit clearly
indicates that the sports betting
markets are inefficient.
4.1 Bootstrap Results
In order to demonstrate the robustness of our results, we utilized the bootstrap
procedure. The
algorithm that describes our implementation is Algorithm 6. This algorithm is
utilized for each sport, and
the number of times the data is resampled with replacement for each sport is
equivalent to the number of
sample games for that sport. 10,000 iterations of this algorithm are used to
generate the desired bootstrap
samples from which Optimal ROI, Optimal Epsilon Value, Optimal Expected Value
Threshold, and Optimal
Number of Games can be computed. Univariate and bivariate visualizations of the
aformentioned variables in
the bootstrap samples are available in the Online Supplement. The univariate
visualizations are histograms
with optimal bin sizing calculated by Scott’s Rule (Scott 1979), and the bivariate
visualizations are contour
plots with densities calculated via averaged shifted histograms (Scott 1985). Both
visualization techniques
are non-parametric.
From the bootstrap samples, Table 5 contains 95% Confidence Intervals for each
variable sampled.
From the univariate visualizations in the Online Supplement, it’s evident that
some of the samples are
clearly skewed. In order to handle the skewness of the data, the confidence
intervals are calculated by two
different non-parametric procedures: Percentile Intervals (Efron 1993) and High
Density Intervals (Hyndman
1996).
Place Table 5 Here
Table 5 displays two-sided 95% confidence intervals for the bootstrapped data.
Panel A and B highlight
the intervals for bets relying upon the Simple win probability model, and Panel C
and D highlight the intervals
for bets relying upon the Weighted win probability model. Both Panel A and C
utilize 95% percentile
intervals, and Panel B and D utilize 95% high density intervals. All ROI and
Epsilon Value intervals for all
sports in each panel do not contain zero.
To examine whether the optimal ROI values (or optimal Epsilon Values) for all
sports are statistically
significant and greater than zero, we must test the following set of joint
hypotheses: H0 = 0 and HA > 0. In
order to perform the joint hypothesis test (as we are checking these hypotheses
for all sports concurrently),
9
we use the Bonferroni correction with α = 0.05. Since we are testing five sports
concurrently with the
aforementioned hypotheses for each win probability model, we must now examine
whether all of the one
sided 99% confidence intervals contain zero for each win probability model.
Place Table 6 Here
Table 6 displays one-sided 99% confidence intervals for bootstrapped data. Panel A
highlights the
intervals for bets relying upon the Simple win probability model, and Panel B
highlights the intervals for
bets relying upon the Weighted win probability model. All ROI intervals for all
sports in each panel do
not contain zero. As we are utilizing an one-sided interval, the null and
alternative hypotheses for ROI,
EV Threshold, and Epsilon Value are respectively: H0 = 0 and HA > 0. By examining
the intervals in
the table and using the Bonferroni correction (with α = 0.05) for each win
probability model, we reject
the null hypothesis that the optimal returns from this strategy are equivalent to
zero for every sport. By
again examining the intervals in the table and using the Bonferroni correction
(with α = 0.05) for each win
probability model, we reject the null hypothesis that the optimal Epsilon Value is
equivalent to zero for
every sport. From the above, we have shown that the optimal ROI is statistically
significant and greater
than zero, meaning that there is a betting strategy that consistently generates
profit.
5 Conclusion
Levitt (2004) succinctly states that there is little evidence of bettors who are
able to beat the bookies
systematically. For horseracing bets, Asch et al (1982) were not able to devise a
successful strategy based
solely on observable betting odds. Through our analysis, we have shown that we
have created a betting
algorithm that solely relies upon betting odds and is capable of generating profit
for multiple sports con
currently. If the market is efficient, there should not be any skillful way to
generate above average market
returns in the long run. Through our research and successful algorithm, we
demonstrated the existence
of market inefficiencies in sports betting markets. Our paper is the first to
propose a single theory which
identifies inefficiencies across sports through generating positive returns.
We encourage future researchers to further explore the benefits and costs of using
compounding bets
rather than independent $1 bets that we used in this paper, as well as properly
utilizing Kelly’s portfolio
growth criterion (Kelly 1956). In addition, we also leave it to future researchers
to propose improvements
on our win probability models and betting algorithm parameters.
10
As the Supreme Court of the United States has struck down a 1992 law prohibiting
sports betting3, we
anticipate that betting markets in the United States will continue to grow larger
and more popular. Indeed,
several states4 have already legalized sports betting since the monumental
decision. For now, we urge bettors
to take advantage of these newfound opportunities and enjoy beating the house.
3Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association, 584 U.S.
2018
4New Jersey, Delaware, Mississippi, and West Virginia are a few examples.
11
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12
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13
Table 1: Randomized Betting Returns ($1 Bets)
Panel A: Equally Randomized Spread Betting Returns
NFL
NBA
Total Games Bet
Mean Return on Investment (ROI) %
95% ROI Confidence Intervals
922.00-4.35
4019.00-4.39
NCAAF NCAAB WNBA
951.00-4.41
1140.00-4.39
255.00-4.39
(-10.31, 1.49) (-7.27,-1.43) (-10.26, 1.39) (-9.80, 1.08) (-15.94, 7.27)
Panel B: Equally Randomized Moneyline Betting Returns
NFL
NBA
Total Games Bet
Mean Return on Investment (ROI) %
95% ROI Confidence Intervals
922.00
0.75
4019.00
0.54
NCAAF NCAAB WNBA
951.00
0.30
1140.00-6.44
255.00-0.18
(-6.48, 7.90) (-3.26, 4.23) (-8.14, 8.59) (-12.97, 0.09) (-14.62, 14.07)
Panel C: Unequally Randomized Moneyline Betting Returns
NFL
NBA
Total Games Bet
Mean Return on Investment (ROI) %
95% ROI Confidence Intervals
922.00
0.72
 4019.00-1.04
NCAAF NCAAB WNBA
951.00-1.52
1140.00-3.78
255.00-1.39
(-6.22, 7.56) (-4.47, 2.39) (-8.49, 5.67) (-9.48, 1.92) (-14.35, 12.25)
This table summarizes returns from three different strategies of randomly betting
on games. Algorithms 4 and 5 describe
the pseudocode that implements each of these strategies. The confidence intervals
in each of the panels are 95th percentile
confidence intervals, and each strategy involves betting on every game in the
sample data. From Panel A, it’s evident that
randomly picking spread bets (regardless of sport) returns a mean ROI of around-
4.4%. In this randomization approach, there
is an equal chance the strategy will choose either team to cover the spread. This
approach mirrors the fact that spread bets
are designed to have an equal chance of the favorite or underdog covering the
spread. In Panel B, the mean ROIs have more
variation than Panel A, and the mean returns are close to 0% (excluding NCAAB). In
the randomization approach used to
generate Panel B, the favorite and the underdog have an equal chance to be picked
to win the game. In Panel C, the mean
ROIs are similar to Panel B’s, but generally smaller (excluding NCAAB). The
randomization approach used to generate Panel
C assigns a 67% chance that the favorite will be chosen to win the game, and a 33%
chance that the underdog will be chosen
to win the game. From comparing all three panels, it’s clear that randomly placing
moneyline bets generally have a larger
returns on investment than randomly placing spread bets. From these results, we
chose to build our betting strategies around
successfully placing moneyline bets.
14
Table2:BettingAlgorithmReturns($1Bets)
PanelA:SimpleAlgorithmResults
NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA
Simple
TotalGamesAnalyzed 922.00 4019.00 951.00 1140.00 255.00
GamesBet(Simple) 742.00 2386.00 667.00 709.00 226.00
ReturnonInvestment(ROI)% 10.81 3.42-2.49-1.10 4.38
SimplewithOptimalEpsilonThreshold
EpsilonValue 0.34 0.38 0.25 0.17 0.20
BetGames 742.00 2386.00 667.00 709.00 226.00
ROI% 11.55 4.02 2.97 1.39 7.42
SimplewithOptimalEpsilonandEVThresholds
EVThreshold 0.013 0.010 0.083 0.007 0.084
GamesBet 567.00 1500.00 292.00 645.00 151.00
ROI% 16.57 9.04 7.29 4.07 17.01
PanelB:WeightedAlgorithmResults
NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA
Weighted
TotalGamesAnalyzed 922.00 4019.00 951.00 1140.00 255.00
GamesBet(Weighted) 766.00 2400.00 664.00 685.00 235.00
ReturnonInvestment(ROI)% 5.73 0.66 1.60 0.94 4.55
WeightedwithOptimalEpsilonThreshold
EpsilonValue 0.12 0.35 0.25 0.37 0.16
BetGames 766.00 2400.00 664.00 685.00 235.00
ROI% 8.69 1.57 6.06 2.67 9.70
WeightedwithOptimalEpsilonandEVThresholds
EVThreshold 0.022 0.040 0.010 0.030 0.023
 GamesBet 662.00 619.00 599.00 284.00 216.00
ROI% 9.26 11.18 8.04 13.02 12.98
This table summarizes returns fromtwowinprobabilitymodels: SimpleandWeighted.
Algorithms 1and2describe the
pseudocodethat implementseachof thesemodels.
Algorithm3describeshowtheseprobabilitymodelsare incorporatedinto

thebettingprocess.BothPanelAandBfollowthesamestructurewithreturnsreportedforbetsmad
esheerlyonanexpected
valuebasisderived fromthe specificwinprobabilitymodel. Next, returnsare reported
for thebettingalgorithmwiththe
EpsilonThresholdparameter. Finally, returnsaredisplayed for
thebettingalgorithmaugmentedwiththeExpectedValue
ThresholdparameteraswellastheEpsilonThreshold.Returnsalways
increaseateachstep,aswehaveselectedtheoptimal
values of theEpsilonandExpectedValueThresholds. We chose theseparameter values
tooptimize formaximizingTotal
Return,whichisdefinedasROI*N,whereNisthenumberofbets. InPanelA,
thereturnsresultingfromstrictlymaking

positiveexpectedvaluebetsaccordingtotheSimplemodelvaryacrosssports,withtheNCAAFandN
CAABhavingnegative
ROI. Incomparison, thereturns
frommakingpositiveexpectedvaluebetsaccordingtotheWeightedmodelalsovaryacross
sports,butarealwayspositive.Asaforementioned, returns
increasewhenmoreparametersareincluded.Thebestconclusion

todrawfromcomparingthereturnswithbothalgorithmsaugmentedwithoptimalEpsilonandEVThre
sholdsisthatneither
model reallydominates theother,which leadsus tobelieve that
choosingSimpleorWeightedonasportbysportbasis is
probablythebest idea.
15
Table3:YearlyOptimalReturnonInvestment [%] ($1Bets)
PanelA:SimpleReturnonInvestment
Year NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA AllLeagues SampleSize S&P500
2017 34.01 4.20 0.00-0.30 7.58 3.38 839 21.69
2016-1.56 8.56-6.57-0.22-3.83 2.22 624 11.80
2015 43.71 17.69 26.12 18.24 107.79 29.09 365 1.34
2014 4.03 2.13 64.00-13.87 0.00 8.22 164 13.53
2013-15.16 11.40-8.82 16.25 100.00 10.64 189 32.21
2012 9.77 25.11 7.22 8.33 77.78 17.51 128 15.84
2011 76.03 16.79 12.00 — — 29.19 272 2.06
2010-7.89 6.07 0.85 — — 2.84 384 14.93
2009 1.10 4.37 11.27 — — 4.25 190 26.42
PanelB:WeightedROIReturnonInvestment
Year NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA AllLeagues SampleSize S&P500
2017 12.46-3.68-25.00 3.29 7.38 3.28 465 21.69
2016 5.95 7.57 5.59-6.74 15.07 5.23 475 11.80
2015 14.67 22.88 10.77 23.95 47.64 18.35 344 1.34
2014-12.59 7.05 51.40-10.83 0.00 6.17 128 13.53
2013-13.31 24.82-43.14-2.06 100.00-0.89 121 32.21
2012-12.67 36.52 9.34 8.33 5.56 10.00 150 15.84
2011 46.96 23.09 11.05 — — 26.23 199 2.06
2010 17.60 11.65 6.91 — — 11.55 318 14.93
2009-0.20-2.88 9.19 — — 2.15 170 26.42
Thistableshowsayearbyyear,
sportbysportbreakdownofoptimalROI(betsmadebybettingalgorithmaugmentedwith
optimalEpsilonandExpectedValueThresholdparameters),withtheS&P500ROI
listedasabenchmark. TheAllLeagues
columnshowsaweightedROIgeneratedbysummingtheTotalReturn(ROI*NumberofGames)
foreachsport, andthen
dividingbythetotalnumberofgamesbetuponforeachyear.Wedonotbenefit
fromcompounding,aswedesignateeachbet
asanindependent$1bet. Thesampleofgameswehaveexcludes
theearly2000’sand2008and2018,whicharetheyears
inthe21stcenturyinwhichS&P500hadanegativereturn. Ingeneral,
theS&P500outperformsthesportsbettingreturns
(excluding2012forSimple,and2011and2015forbothstrategies).Wepresentthistableasthe
foundationof theargument
thatsportsbettingshouldbeviewedasanalternativeassetmanagementstrategy, as it
logicallyhasnorelationtothestock
market(marketneutral).
16
Table4:YearlySampleSizes(GamesBetOn)
PanelA:SimpleAlgoSampleSize(GamesBetOn)
Year NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA AllLeagues
2017 16 343 0 354 126 839
2016 145 266 90 114 9 624
2015 107 124 29 93 12 365
2014 56 81 17 10 0 164
2013 14 85 15 73 2 189
2012 33 61 31 1 2 128
2011 60 174 38 0 0 272
2010 72 267 45 0 0 384
2009 64 99 27 0 0 190
PanelB:WeightedAlgoSampleSize(GamesBetOn)
Year NFL NBA NCAAF NCAAB WNBA AllLeagues
2017 21 124 2 141 177 465
2016 165 95 158 44 13 475
2015 141 53 84 43 23 344
2014 64 34 27 3 0 128
2013 17 43 25 34 2 121
2012 36 33 79 1 1 150
2011 62 66 71 0 0 199
2010 80 131 107 0 0 318
2009 76 40 54 0 0 170
ThistablesupportsTable3,andprovidesthesamplesizeofbetsforeachsportineachyear.
Ingeneral,astimegoeson,webet

onmoregames.Thisisafeatureofthedataaswehadtowebscrapemostofthelinemovementsofthegam
esfromaninternet

archive(archive.org/web)asthesitethedatawereoriginallyfoundat(vegasinsider.com)does
notdisplaylinemovementdata
foranygamesoutsideof thecurrentyear,andit ischallengingtofindolder
linemovementdata.Wearealsolimitedbyour
databaseof linemovements.
Incertainsports,sufficienthistoricalspreadwinprobabilitydataislackingduetothesparsi
tyof
bothgamesplayedandlinemovementsmeasured.Aninterestingresultof thiscomparisonof
tables isthatthesamplesizeof
theSimplewinprobabilitymodel tendstobeconsiderablylargerformorerecentyearsofdata.
17
Table5:TwoSided95%BootstrapConfidenceIntervals
PanelA:SimpleHighDensityIntervals
Sport ROI% EVThreshold EpsilonValue %ofGamesBet
NFL (7.04,35.81) (0.00,0.03) (0.11,0.36) (0.38,0.82)
 NBA (3.74,16.00) (0.00,0.02) (0.19,0.46) (0.28,0.60)
NCAAB (1.36,16.08) (0.01,0.03) (0.14,0.37) (0.29,0.60)
NCAAF (1.10,16.00) (0.00,0.08) (0.01,0.30) (0.32,0.73)
WNBA (8.72,57.19) (0.00,0.10) (0.13,0.44) (0.37,0.89)
PanelB:SimplePercentileIntervals
Sport ROI% EVThreshold EpsilonValue %ofGamesBet
NFL (9.40,40.60) (0.00,0.06) (0.10,0.36) (0.24,0.81)
NBA (4.18,16.87) (0.00,0.03) (0.17,0.46) (0.21,0.56)
NCAAB (2.07,16.94) (0.01,0.03) (0.14,0.37) (0.29,0.60)
NCAAF (1.69,17.08) (0.00,0.08) (0.01,0.30) (0.31,0.72)
WNBA (8.73,47.45) (0.01,0.15) (0.13,0.32) (0.35,0.91)
PanelC:WeightedHighDensityIntervals
Sport ROI% EVThreshold EpsilonValue %ofGamesBet
NFL (7.04,35.81) (0.00,0.03) (0.11,0.36) (0.38,0.82)
NBA (3.74,16.00) (0.00,0.02) (0.19,0.46) (0.28,0.47)
NCAAB (1.36,16.08) (0.01,0.03) (0.14,0.37) (0.29,0.60)
NCAAF (1.10,16.00) (0.00,0.08) (0.01,0.30) (0.32,0.73)
WNBA (8.72,57.19) (0.00,0.10) (0.13,0.44) (0.37,0.89)
PanelD:WeightedPercentileIntervals
Sport ROI% EVThreshold EpsilonValue %ofGamesBet
NFL (5.92,41.32) (0.00,0.05) (0.08,0.34) (0.30,0.85)
NBA (1.66,25.58) (0.00,0.04) (0.12,0.49) (0.11,0.60)
NCAAB (2.51,19.49) (0.00,0.03) (0.14,0.38) (0.23,0.58)
NCAAF (2.03,19.68) (0.00,0.05) (0.01,0.41) (0.36,0.73)
WNBA (6.43,43.06) (0.01,0.15) (0.13,0.32) (0.38,0.93)
Thistabledisplaystwo-
sided95%confidenceintervalsforthebootstrappeddata.PanelAandBhighlighttheintervalsfo
rbets

relyingupontheSimplewinprobabilitymodel,andPanelCandDhighlighttheintervalsforbetsre
lyingupontheWeighted
winprobabilitymodel. BothPanelAandCutilize95%percentile intervals,
andPanelBandDutilize95%highdensity
intervals.AllROIandEpsilonValueintervalsforallsportsineachpaneldonotcontainzero.
18
Table 6: One Sided 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
Panel A: Simple Percentile Intervals
Sport
ROI % EVThreshold Epsilon Value % of Games Bet
NFL
(8.11, 82.85)
NBA (3.41, 40.25)
NCAAB (1.20, 33.48)
NCAAF (0.92, 38.44)
WNBA (7.69, 145.12)
(0.00, 0.10)
(0.00, 0.04)
(0.00, 0.03)
(0.00, 0.08)
(0.00, 0.20)
Panel B: Weighted Percentile Intervals
Sport
(0.06, 0.47)
(0.13, 0.50)
(0.04, 0.47)
(0.01, 0.46)
(0.13, 0.50)
(0.20, 0.84)
(0.14, 0.62)
 (0.25, 0.66)
(0.27, 0.75)
(0.30, 0.94)
ROI % EVThreshold Epsilon Value % of Games Bet
NFL
(6.47, 111.64)
NBA (1.77, 48.90)
NCAAB (2.63, 35.02)
NCAAF (2.34, 66.26)
WNBA (6.80, 99.31)
(0.00, 0.11)
(0.00, 0.04)
(0.00, 0.03)
(0.00, 0.08)
(0.00, 0.22)
(0.08, 0.37)
(0.07, 0.50)
(0.00, 0.46)
(0.01, 0.48)
(0.05, 0.50)
(0.27, 0.88)
(0.11, 0.62)
(0.27, 0.77)
(0.19, 0.75)
(0.33, 0.96)
This table displays one-sided 99% confidence intervals for bootstrapped data.
Panel A highlights the intervals for bets relying
upon the Simple win probability model, and Panel B highlights the intervals for
bets relying upon the Weighted win probability
model. All ROI intervals for all sports in each panel do not contain zero. As we
are utilizing an one-sided interval, the null and
alternative hypotheses for ROI, EV Threshold, and Epsilon Value are respectively:
H0 = 0 and HA > 0. By examining the
intervals in the table and using the Boneferroni correction (with α = 0.05) for
each win probability model, we reject the null
hypothesis that the optimal returns from this strategy are equivalent to zero for
every sport. By again examining the intervals
in the table and using the Boneferroni correction (with α = 0.05) for each win
probability model, we reject the null hypothesis
that the optimal Epsilon Value is equivalent to zero for every sport.
19
Algorithm1:ComputeProbability: SimpleAverage
Input:π,amappingofspreadstotheirrespectiveprobabilities
Output: Simpleaverageoftheprobabilitiesofdistinctspreads
1Letσbethesetofalluniquespreads.
2 return 1
|σ|
P
s∈σπs;
Algorithm2:ComputeProbability:WeightedAverage
Input:φ,amappingofspreadstotheirrespectivefrequencies
π,amappingofspreadstotheirrespectiveprobabilities

Output:Averageoftheprobabilitiesofallspreadsweightedaccordingtothespreadfrequencies
1Letσbethesetofalluniquespreads.
2 returnP
s∈σπsφs P
s∈σφs
;
 Algorithm3:BettingAlgorithm
Input: ¯ µf, theexpectedvalueofwinnings ifthefavoriteteamisbeton
¯ µu, theexpectedvalueofwinningsiftheunderdogteamisbeton
πf, theprobabilitythatthefavoriteteamwinsthegame
πu,theprobabilitythattheunderdogteamwinsthegame
ǫ,valueoftheEpsilonhyper-parameter
τ,valueoftheEVthresholdhyper-parameter
Output:-1, ifthealgorithmdecidestobetonneitherteam
0, ifthealgorithmdecidestobetontheunderdogteamOR
+1, ifthealgorithmdecidestobetonthefavoriteteam
1 if¬(¯ µf<0∧ ¯ µu<0)then
2 ifπf≥0.50+ǫthen
3 ifπf≥πuthen return1;
4 else return0;
5 else
6 if ¯ µf≥¯ µuthen
7 if ¯ µf>τ then return1;
8 else
9 if ¯ µu>τ then return0;
10 return−1;
20
Algorithm4:SpreadBetRandomization
Input: Γ, setofallgames
PF,pointsscoredbyfavoriteineachgame
PU,pointsscoredbyunderdogineachgame
MSF,minimumspreadforfavoriteineachgame
MSU,minimumspreadforunderdogineachgame
Output:ReturnonInvestment(ROI%)
1 foreachg∈Γdo
2 ifPF+MSF>PUthen
3 Victor←1;
4 elseifPU+MSU>PF then
5 Victor←0;
6 else
7 Victor←2;
8 SimVictor∼U[0,1];
9 ifSimVictor>0.5then
10 SimVictor←1;
11 else
12 SimVictor←0;
13 ifVictor=SimVictorthen
14 Winnings←100/110;
15 elseifVictor =SimVictor∧Victor =2then
16 Winnings←−1;
17 else
18 Winnings←0;
19ROI=100
|Γ|
P
g∈Γ
Winningsg;
20 returnROI
21
Algorithm5:MoneylineBetRandomization
Input: Γ, setofallgames
PF,pointsscoredbyfavoriteineachgame
PU,pointsscoredbyunderdogineachgame
POF,payoutforfavoriteineachgame
POU,payoutspreadforunderdogineachgame
 Θ,probabilityofchoosingfavoriteineachsimulation
Output:ReturnonInvestment(ROI%)
1 foreachg∈Γdo
2 ifPF>PUthen
3 Victor←1;
4 elseifPU>PF then
5 Victor←0;
6 else
7 Victor←2;
8 SimVictor∼U[0,1];
9 ifSimVictor>Θthen
10 SimVictor←1;
11 else
12 SimVictor←0;
13 ifVictor=SimVictor∧Victor=1then
14 Winnings←POF;
15 elseifVictor=SimVictor∧Victor=0then
16 Winnings←POU;
17 elseifVictor =SimVictor∧Victor =2then
18 Winnings←−1;
19 else
20 Winnings←0;
21ROI=100
|Γ|
P
g∈Γ
Winningsg;
22 returnROI
22
Algorithm6:BootstrapAlgorithm
Input: Γ,setofallgames
NG,numberofsamplegames
EP,vectorof(0,95thQuantile)ofEpsilonValuesfrombootstrapsample, stepsizeof0.01
EV,vectorof(0,95thQuantile)ofEVThresholdsfrombootstrapsample, stepsizeof0.001
Output: OROI,OptimalReturnonInvestment(ROI%),
OEP,OptimalEpsilonValue,
OEV,OptimalExpectedValueThreshold
1NBS←0;
2ΓBS←[ ];
3whileNBS≤NGdo
4 randomlyselectagame,gfromΓ;
5 ΓBS.append(g);
6 NBS←NBS+1;
7 initializeTRBSasamatrixofzeroswithdimensions(|EP|, |EV|);
8 initializeROIBSasamatrixofzeroswithdimensions(|EP|, |EV|);
9 i,j←0,0;
10whilei≤|EP|do
11 whilej≤|EV|do
12 N←0;
13 TR←0;
14 foreachg∈ΓBSdo
15 D←BettingAlgorithm(g.¯ µf, g.¯ µu, g.πf, g.πu,EPi,EVj);
16 ifD=0thenN←N+1;
17 ifD=−1then
18 if g.victor=FavoritethenTR←TR−1;
19 elseTR←TR+g.underdogpayout;
20 elseifD=1then
21 if g.victor=FavoritethenTR←TR+g.favoritepayout;
22 elseTR←TR−1;
 23 TRBS[i,j]←TR;
24 ROIBS[i,j]←TR
N
;
25 j←j+1
26 i←i+1
27 i′,j′← argmax
0≤i≤|EP|−1, 0≤j≤|EV|−1
TRBS[i,j];
28OROI←ROIBS[i′,j′];
29OEP,OEV←EP[i′], EV[j′];
30 returnOROI,OEP,OEV;
23
Online Supplement
arXiv:1910.08858v2 [econ.GN] 22 Oct 2019
Beating the House:
Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets
October 24, 2019
Abstract
We utilize histograms to visualize features of the bootstrap iterations. We also
provide the method
ology for these visualizations.
Graph Methodology
Univariate Histogram Methodology
Keeping with the theme of using non-parametric techniques, we utilized Scott’s
normal reference rule1 to
determine optimal bin sizing to generate these univariate histograms. These
visualizations were very useful
to us when we needed to decide which kind of bootstrap intervals we wanted to
apply to the bootstrapped
data.
Bivariate Histogram Methodology
As wewishto utilize non-parametric techniques, we chose the bivariate
averageshifted histogram2 in order
to create 3-D density estimation visualizations of various combinations of
variables from the bootstrapped
data.
1 Scott, David W. “On optimal and data-based histograms.” Biometrika, Volume 66,
Issue 3, December 1979, Pages
605–610, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/66.3.605
2 Scott, David W. “Averaged Shifted Histograms: Effective Nonparametric Density
Estimators in Several Dimensions”.
Ann. Statist. 13 (1985), no. 3, 1024–1040. doi:10.1214/aos/1176349654
1
Univariate Histograms
Figure 1: Simple NFL Histograms
Epsilon
Frequency
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2500
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EV Threshold
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 0.1
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Number of Bets
Frequency
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NFL Number of Bets
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2
Figure2:WeightedNFLHistograms

NFL Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

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Frequency
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ROI

NFL Number of Bets

Frequency
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Figure3:SimpleNBAHistograms

NBA Epsilon
Frequency
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NBA EV Threshold
Frequency
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 0 500 1000 2000
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Frequency
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NBA Number of Bets

Frequency
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4
Figure4:WeightedNBAHistograms

NBA Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

NBA EV Threshold
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NBA ROI
Frequency
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NBA Number of Bets

Frequency
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5
Figure 5: Simple NCAAB Histograms
Epsilon
Frequency
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3000
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ROI
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 NCAAB ROI
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6
Figure6:WeightedNCAABHistograms

NCAAB Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

NCAAB EV Threshold
Frequency
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NCAAB ROI
Frequency
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ROI

NCAAB Number of Bets

Frequency
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7
Figure7:SimpleNCAAFHistograms

NCAAF Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

NCAAF EV Threshold
Frequency
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NCAAF ROI
Frequency
 0 10 20 30 40
0 100 300 500
ROI

NCAAF Number of Bets

Frequency
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0 500 1000 1500
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8
Figure 8: Weighted NCAAF Histograms
Epsilon
Frequency
Frequency
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200 400 600 800
0
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ROI
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NCAAF ROI
EV Threshold
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NCAAF Number of Bets
9
Figure9:SimpleWNBAHistograms

WNBA Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

WNBA EV Threshold
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WNBA ROI
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 0 50 100 150
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ROI

WNBA Number of Bets

Frequency
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10
Figure10:WeightedWNBAHistograms

WNBA Epsilon
Frequency
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Epsilon

WNBA EV Threshold
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11
BivariateHistograms
Figure11:SimpleNFLHistograms
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Simple NFL ROI % vs EV Threshold
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 20
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Simple NFL ROI % vs Epsilon
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Density
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12
Figure12:WeightedNFLHistograms
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Weighted NFL ROI % vs Epsilon
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Weighted NFL Epsilon vs EV Threshold
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Figure13:SimpleNBAHistograms
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 Density
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14
Figure14:WeightedNBA2-DHistograms
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 Weighted NBA Epsilon vs EV Threshold
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Figure15:SimpleNCAABHistograms
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Figure16:WeightedNCAABHistograms
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 300
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17
Figure17:SimpleNCAAFHistograms
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Figure18:WeightedNCAAFHistograms
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Density
 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
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Weighted NCAAF Epsilon vs EV Threshold
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Epsilon
19
Figure19:SimpleWNBAHistograms
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Density
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Simple WNBA Epsilon vs EV Threshold
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Figure20:WeightedWNBAHistograms
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 EV Threshold
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Number of Bets
ROI %

SPORTS BETTING 101

TYPES OF SPORTS WAGERS
STRAIGHT BET – A straight bet is an individual wager on
a game or event.
PARLAY – A parlay is a single bet that links two or more
wagers; to win the bet, the player must win all the
wagers in the parlay. If the player loses one wager, the
player loses the entire bet.
FUTURES – A future bet is a wager placed on an event
typically far in the future, such as which team will win
next year’s pro football championship game.
PROPOSITIONS – Proposition bets, or “prop” bets,
focus on the outcome of events within a given game. An
example of a prop bet is “Which team will score the first
touchdown?”
TEASER – A teaser is a type of football or basketball
wager in which the point spread is adjusted by
additional points in the player’s favor on more than one
game. In football, a player may move the posted point
spread 6.5, 7, 10 or 14 points. In basketball, 4, 5,
6-point teasers are offered.
 ROUND ROBIN – A round robin is a series of parlays.
For example, a 3-team round robin consists of four total
bets – three 2-team parlays (A + B, A + C and B + C)
and one 3-team parlay (A+B+C).
BETTING AT TREASURE BAY
If you have a question, please ask any one of our Sports
Book Crewmembers. We are here to help!
Odds are available on any board, and we also have Tout
Sheets and Parlay Cards.
Mississippi law prohibits persons under the age of 21
from wagering, collecting winning wagers or loitering in
or about the Sports Book area.
Please check your ticket for accuracy as all tickets go
as written after you leave the wagering counter. Once
a wager is accepted by both parties, tickets will not be
altered or voided except at the discretion of Management.
We are committed to providing a Responsible Gaming
environment to all our guests. Treasure Bay maintains
procedures for allowing a patron to exclude themselves
from casino properties across Mississippi. To inquire
about Self Exclusion, please contact a Security Supervisor
or Manager.
IMPORTANT TERMS
POINT SPREAD - The most popular sports bets are based
on the point spread. The point spread represents the
margin of points in which the favored team must win by to
“cover the spread.” Bets on the point spread are usually
offered at 11-to-10 odds. For example, a player must bet
$11 to win $10 for a total payout of $21 or $110 to win
$100 for a total payout of $210.
MONEY LINE - The money line represents the odds of a
team winning the game outright without the use of the
point spread. The money line is expressed as a 3-digit
number. For example -150 means a player must bet $150
for every $100 they wish to win, $15 for every $10 and
multiples thereof. Or, +140 means a player will win $140
for every $100 they bet.
GLOSSARY OF
SPORTS BETTING TERMS
Action – A sports wager of any kind; a bet.
Added Game – A game not part of the typical menu of
wagering offerings, often posted as an accommodation
to patrons.
Book – An establishment that accepts bets on the
outcome of sporting events.
Buy (Points) – A player pays an additional price (lays
more money) to receive a half-point or more in the
player’s favor on a point spread game.
Chalk – The favorite.
Cover – Winning by more than the point spread.
Dime – A $1,000 sports wager.
Dog – The team perceived to be most likely to lose. Short
for underdog.
Favorite – The team considered most likely to win an
event.
First half bet – A bet placed on the score in the first half
of the game only.
Future – Odds that are posted well in advance on
the winner of major events, including the Pro Football
Championship, the Pro Basketball Championship and
the Pro Baseball Championship.
Halftime bet – A bet placed on scoring in the second
half of a game, including any overtime periods.
Laying the points/price – Betting the favorite by giving
up points.
Limit – The maximum amount accepted by the house
before the odds and/or point spread are changed.
Line – The current odds or point spread on a particular
event.
Listed pitchers – A baseball bet placed only if both of the
pitchers scheduled to start a game actually start. If they
don’t, the bet is deemed “No Action” and refunded.
Longshot – A team perceived to be unlikely to win.
Middle – To win both sides of a game; wagering on
the underdog at one point spread and the favorite at
a different point spread and winning both sides. For
example, if the player bets the underdog +4 ½ and the
favorite -3 ½ and the favorite wins by 4, the player has
“middled” the book and won both bets.
Money line – Odds expressed in terms of money. With
money odds, whenever there is a minus (-) the player
lays that amount to win $100; where there is a plus (+)
the player wins that amount for every $100 wagered.
Nickel – A $500 sports wager.
No Action – A wager in which no money is lost or won
and the original bet amount is refunded.
Off the board – A game in which no bets are being
accepted.
Opening line – The earliest line posted for a particular
sporting event.
Over – A sports bet in which the player wagers that the
combined point total of two teams will be more than a
specified total.
Parlay – A single bet that links together two or more
wagers; to win the bet, the player must win all the
wagers in the parlay. If the player loses one wager, the
player loses the entire bet. However, if the player wins
all the wagers in the parlay, the player wins a higher
payoff than if the player had placed the bets separately.
Pick or Pick ‘em – A game in which neither team is
favored.
Point spread – The margin of points in which the favored
team must win by to “cover the spread.”
Price – The odds or point spread.
Prop (Proposition) Bet – A bet that focuses on the
outcome of events within a given game. Props are
often offered on marquee games of great interest.
These include high profile pro football games. An
example of a prop bet is “Which team will score the first
touchdown?”
Puck line – In hockey, a spread used instead of the
money line.
Push – When the contest ends with no winner or loser
for wagering purposes; a tie for wagering purposes.
Round Robin – A series of parlays. For example, a
3-team round robin consists of four total bets- three 2
team parlays (A + B, A + C and B + C) and one 3-team
parlay (A + B + C).
Run line – In baseball, a spread used instead of the
money line.
Sides – The two teams playing; the underdog and the
favorite.
Sports book – A physical location that accepts sports
bets.
Straight bet – An individual wager on a game or event
that will be determined by a point spread, money line or
total.
Straight-up – Winning the game without any regard to
the point spread; a money line bet.
Take the points – Betting the underdog and receiving its
advantage in the point spread.
Teaser – A type of parlay in which the point spread or
total of each individual play is adjusted. The price of
moving the point spread (teasing) is lower payoff odds
on winning wagers.
Tie – A wager in which no money is lost or won because
the teams’ scores were equal to the number of points in
the given point spread or total.
Total – The combined amount of runs, points or goals
scored by both teams during the game, including
overtime.
Under – The player bets that the total points scored by
two teams will be less than a certain figure.
Underdog – The team perceived to be most likely to lose.
Also known as the “dog.

A Pro table Model For Predicting the

Over/Under Market in Football
Edward Wheatcroft
London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, United
Kingdom, WC2A 2AE.
Abstract
The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet
on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed
2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named Generalised Attacking
Performance (GAP) ratings, are de ned which measure the attacking
and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are
used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their
pro tability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting
strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots
on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than
the number of goals. An average pro t of around 0.8 percent per bet
taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and
corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to
be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy.
1 Introduction
Interest in forecasting the outcomes of sporting events has grown a great
deal in recent years. This is perhaps partly as a result of greater access to
data (The Economist (2017)), greater computational power and an increase
in the number of available betting markets. It is now commonplace for media
companies to include estimates of the probabilities of di erent outcomes of
1
sporting events in their coverage and consumers appear to be largely comfort
able with this. This practice is perhaps most common in the United States
where probabilistic forecasts of National Football League (NFL), National
Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB) events are
routinely disseminated to the public and have been for some years (ESPN
 (2018)). Probabilistic forecasting for the purpose of gambling has also taken
o
in recent years. Increased competition in the bookmaking industry has
led to smaller pro t margins and hence greater opportunities for gamblers.
Betting exchanges allow gamblers to bet against each other with one party
`laying a bet for another and the exchange taking a small cut of the return.
Crucially, under this arrangement, there is no incentive for the company to
exclude those customers making consistent pro ts and thus, if high quality
forecast models can be built, opportunities for consistent pro t making exist.
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a set of ratings, named Gener
alised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings, are introduced, which measure
the attacking and defensive ability of each team within a sports league. GAP
ratings can take as inputs any measure of attacking performance which could,
for example, be match statistics such as shots or shots on target or might
simply be goals. Second, it is demonstrated how a pro t can be made by us
ing GAP ratings to form probabilistic forecasts for the over/under 2.5 goals
market (which allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in
a match will exceed 2.5 or not) in association football (hereafter, just referred
to as `football). It is found that, assuming that the maximum odds over all
bookmakers on the BetBrain website were available, using forecasts formed
using GAP ratings with the number of shots and corners as inputs alongside
a level stakes value betting strategy would have provided an average pro t
margin of around 0.8 percent over the last 12 years over a total of 68,672
bets. It is subsequently demonstrated that the probability of achieving such
a return by chance (i.e. by betting randomly with the same frequency) is
extremely small (so small that, over one million trials, we were unable to nd
such a high return by randomly choosing bets at this frequency) and thus
that the strategy appears to be robust in nding e ective betting opportu
nities. A second strategy based on the Kelly criterion is tested and shown to
be capable of yielding a larger pro t by varying the stake according to the
degree of `value in the odds. The analysis is repeated using average odds and
it is found that a loss is made under both betting strategies. The implication
of this in terms of the e ciency of the market is then discussed.
Whilst a vast number of betting markets are now available, obtaining odds
2
data from a large number of games for these markets is generally di cult.
A large archive of historical odds from the over/under 2.5 goals and match
outcome markets are available, however, and this justi es the choice of the
former in this case. A future paper will consider the use of GAP ratings in
the match outcome market.
A large number of academic papers have focused on producing ratings
systems for sets of players or teams in a sporting context. This has been
done both with speci c sports in mind such as football, and in a more general
context with the aim of providing ratings systems that translate between
sports. Almost certainly the most well known approach to producing sports
ratings is the Elo rating system which has a long history in sport and forms an
important basis for a range of ratings systems. Elo ratings were rst designed
to produce rankings for chess players and the system was implemented by
the United States Chess Federation in 1960 (Elo (1978)). The Elo system
assigns ratings to each player and, from those ratings, probabilities of the
outcome of a game between two players or teams is estimated. The two
ratings are then updated to re ect the outcome once the game is nished.
The system was initially designed for the case in which outcomes are binary
(i.e. there are no ties), but, more recently, has been extended to account
for draws, making it applicable to sports such as football, in which draws
are common. At the updating stage (once a game has been played), the
system computes the di erence between the estimated probabilities and the
outcome (assigned a one, a zero, or 0.5 for a draw). As such, the system in its
original form does not account for the size of a win; for example, in football,
 there would be no additional increase in a teams ranking from winning by
several goals over winning by one goal. Elo ratings have been demonstrated
in a football context and found to perform favourably with respect to six
other rating systems (Hvattum & Arntzen (2010)). In 2018, Fifa switched
to an Elo rating system to produce its international football world rankings
(Fifa (2018)). Elo ratings have also been applied to other sports such as, for
example, Rugby League (Carbone et al. (2016)) and video games (Suznjevic
et al. (2015)), whilst fivethirtyeight.com produce probabilities for NFL
(FiveThirtyEight (2019a)) and NBA (FiveThirtyEight (2019b)) based on Elo
ratings.
The Elo rating system provides a single rating for each participating team
relating to the overall ability of that player or team. This approach has been
taken for other ratings systems. The pi-rating system assigns a home and an
away overall rating to each team in a league, both of which are updated after
3
each match in which a team is involved. The change in rating is dependent on
the winning margin of each team but is tapered such that additional goals on
top of already large winning margins are assigned less weight (Constantinou
& Fenton (2013)). The approach taken in this paper is to assign attacking
and defensive ratings to each team and to use those ratings to calculate
match probabilities. This approach has been taken by a large number of
authors. Maher (1982) used xed ratings for each team in combination with
a Poisson model to estimate the number of goals scored by each team (but not
match probabilities). This approach was extended by Dixon & Coles (1997)
who used similar attack and defence ratings in a Poisson regression model
to estimate match probabilities. They combined these with a value betting
strategy (described and used later in this paper) to demonstrate a signi cant
pro t for cases in which the model suggested a large discrepancy between the
estimated probabilities and the probabilities implied by the odds. Whilst the
approach of Dixon and Coles assumed a xed attack and defensive rating over
time for each team, this was extended by Rue & Salvesen (2000) who de ned
a Bayesian model to allow the ratings to vary over time. Dixon & Pope
(2004) used a slightly modi ed version of the model proposed by Dixon and
Coles to demonstrate a pro t using a wider range of published bookmaker
odds. Other examples of the use of attacking and defensive ratings systems
include Karlis & Ntzoufras (2003), Lee (1997) and Baker & McHale (2015).
The use of machine learning in prediction has become more and more pop
ular in recent years. A 2017 special issue in the journal `Machine Learning
presents the results of a `Soccer Prediction Challenge in which participants
were provided with results from 216,743 past football matches from around
the world and were asked to make predictions regarding 206 future matches
(Berrar et al. (2019)). A number of the entrants achieved very encouraging
results. Hubacek et al. (2019) won the competition using gradient boosted
trees whilst Constantinou (2019) nished second using a model called Do
lores which combines dynamic ratings with Hybrid Bayesian Networks. Other
past uses of machine learning to predict football results include ODonoghue
et al. (2004), Van Haaren & Van den Broeck (2015), Joseph et al. (2006) and
Hucaljuk & Rakipovic (2011).
Anumber of other approaches to football prediction have been taken over
the years. These include Bayesian generalised linear models (Rue & Salvesen
(2000)), Bayesian Networks (Constantinou et al. (2012)) and neural networks
(Huang & Chang (2010)).
The question of how to translate team ratings into probabilistic forecasts
4
was addressed by Goddard (2005). Two approaches are generally in use. The
rst approach uses ratings as inputs to Poisson regression models, simulating
the number of goals scored by each team and calculating the probabilities
of each outcome accordingly. The other approach predicts the probability of
each result directly using methods such as ordered probit regression. It was
 found that there is little di erence in the performance of the two approaches.
In this paper, the latter approach is used with the probability of exceeding
2.5 goals modelled directly using logistic regression.
In recent years, the idea that other match statistics might provide a better
indication of the relative performance of the teams than the actual number of
goals scored has been investigated. The reasoning behind this is that there is
a signi cant element of chance involved in scoring a goal and that the number
of goals actually scored might be indicative of the relative performances of
each team. More e ort has thus been invested in attempting to use data to
understand the relative performance of the two teams in the hope that this
will provide a better indication of future performance (Cintia et al. (2015)).
The concept of `expected goals has also taken o in recent years (Rathke
(2017), Opta (2018)). The aim here is simply to attempt to calculate the
number of goals a team would be `expected to score given the location and
nature of all its shots taken during the match (Eggels (2016)). The use of shot
data is conceptually very similar to that of expected goals. The di erence,
however, is that, in the former case, a constant weighting is placed on each
shot, since the nature and location of each one is not taken into account.
The use of match statistics such as shots, shots on target and corners has
become more feasible in recent years due to the greater availability of these
data. Free data on overall match statistics such as shots, corners, fouls, red
and yellow cards as well as bookmakers odds are freely available in an easy
to-use format at the popular and widely used Football-data.co.uk website
(Football Data (2018)). It is from this source that the data used in this
paper are taken. Other sources collect a vast amount of data for matches in
top European leagues including shot locations, shot methods (headed, right
footed, left footed etc), the locations of and outcomes of passes, changes
of possession and much more (Opta Football (2018)). The cost of obtaining
these data is often prohibitively expensive for individuals, however, and these
data are not considered in this paper.
This paper is organised as follows. First, in section 2, background infor
mation is given regarding bookmakers odds and how these can be interpreted
as implied probabilities. In section 3, the data utilised in this paper is de
5
scribed. In section 4, GAP ratings are de ned. In section 5, the approach
taken in this paper to producing probabilistic forecasts from GAP ratings
is described. Approaches to forecast evaluation and parameter selection are
described in section 6. The approach taken to dealing with promotions and
relegations is described in section 7. The two betting strategies used in this
paper are described in section 8. The experimental design is de ned in sec
tion 9 and the results are described in section 10. Section 11 is used for
discussion.
2 Background
This paper makes extensive use of betting odds, using them both as inputs
with which to produce probabilistic forecasts and as a basis with which to
demonstrate the performance of the forecasts as a potential money making
tool. Before proceeding, however, it is useful to de ne exactly what is meant
when betting odds are referred to. The format of betting odds varies some
what in di erent regions of the world. In the context of this paper, it is
convenient to consider `decimal, or `European style , betting odds (to which
other formats can easily be converted). Decimal odds simply indicate by how
much the stake is multiplied in the event of that bet being successful. For
example, if the odds o ered on an event are 3, a unit stake would generate
a return of 3. The `fractional, or `British style odds, in this case would be
given as `2 1 indicating a pro t of 2 for a stake of 1. Hereafter, in this paper,
betting odds are given in decimal format.
Another useful concept is that of the `odds implied probability. De ne
the decimal odds for the ith event to be Oi. The `odds implied probability
is simply de ned as the inverse, i.e. ri = 1
 Oi
. For example, if the odds on an
event are Oi = 3 then ri = 1
3
. Whilst, conventionally, probabilities over a set
of exhaustive events are required to add up to one, this is not the case for odds
implied probabilities and, in fact, the sum of odds implied probabilities for an
event will usually exceed one; the excess representing the bookmakers pro t
margin or `overround. The overround represents a signi cant challenge to
gamblers because it means that the bookmakers shorten their odds in order
to make a pro t.
6
3 Data
This paper utilises the repository of past football match data available at
www.football-data.co.uk which supplies free-to-access match-by-match data
for a range of European Leagues dating back, in some cases, as far back as
the 1993/1994 season. Whilst early years of the data set feature only the
nal result of each match, in more recent years, the information provided
has grown more rich such that, for each football match in any of 10 di er
ent European leagues, full and half time results, the number of shots, shots
on target and number of corners taken by each team are given along with
betting odds of the nal result (home win, away win or draw) and of the
over/under 2.5 goal market from multiple bookmakers. The maximum and
average odds for the match outcome and over/under 2.5 goal markets over
many bookmakers, collected from the BetBrain odds comparison website, are
also given. From the 2017/2018 season onwards, the number of leagues in
which all of this information is available has been increased to 22 (though
data from the extra 12 leagues are not utilised in this paper).
In this paper, a rating system is introduced, called the GAP rating system,
and those ratings are used as inputs to produce probabilistic forecasts. The
available data provide an opportunity for robust evaluation of forecasts and
of potential betting strategies. In this paper, the performance of the forecasts
is compared with di erent inputs to the GAP ratings representing di erent
measures of attacking performance, including shots and corners. Only leagues
for which this information is available along with the maximum and average
BetBrain odds in the over/under 2.5 goal market are thus considered. The
leagues considered in this paper are summarised in table 1. The total number
of football matches considered is thus 54,437. The data set does not include
cup games, playo s or any other extra matches during the regular season and
thus these are not considered in this paper.
4 Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP)
Ratings
Generalised Attacking Performance (GAP) ratings are now formally de ned.
Consider a football league consisting of N di erent teams who all play each
other a number of times over a season. For a given football match, let Sh
and Sa be some measure of the attacking performance of the home and away
7
League
English Premier League
First available season Number of matches
2005/2006
English Championship
English League One
English League Two
English National League
Scottish Premier League
Spanish Primera Liga
Italian Serie A
French Ligue One
 German Bundesliga
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
2005/2006
6460
6624
6624
6624
6488
2940
4910
4908
4908
2005/2006
3951
Table 1: Football league data used in this paper.
teams respectively, where the de nition of `attacking performance (hereafter
frequently referred to as the `GAP rating input) is given by the user and
is usually derived from match statistics. Most obviously, the input could be
de ned as the number of goals scored by each team but could also be the
number of shots taken, the number of shots on target, the number of corners,
a combination of these, or any other indication of attacking performance.
Each team is given a separate attacking and defensive GAP rating for home
and away games de ned as follows:
Ha
i- The attacking GAP rating of the ith team for home games
Hd
i- The defensive GAP rating of the ith team for home games
Aa
i- The attacking GAP rating of the ith team for away games
Ad
i- The defensive GAP rating of the ith team for away games
The attacking GAP ratings relate roughly to the expected attacking per
formance that a team should achieve against an average team in the league
whilst the defensive ratings relate to the expected attacking performance of
an average opposing team. The best teams in the league will thus have a
high attacking rating and a low defensive rating. The following rule is used
to update the ith teams GAP ratings after a home match against the jth
8
team:
Ha
i = max(Ha
i + 1(Sh
Ha
i+Ad
j
2 ),0),
Aa
i = max(Aa
i + (1 1)(Sh
Ha
i+Ad
j
2 ),0),
 Hd
i = max(Hd
i + 1(Sa
Aa
j+Hd
i
2 ),0),
Ad
i = max(Ad
i + (1 1)(Sa
Aa
j+Hd
i
2 ),0)
(1)
The GAP ratings for the jth team (away to the ith team) are updated as
follows:
Aa
j = max(Aa
j + 2(Sa
Aa
j +Hd
i
2 ),0),
Ha
j = max(Ha
j + (1 2)(Sa
Aa
j+Hd
i
2 ),0),
Ad
j = max(Ad
j + 2(Sh
Ha
i+Ad
j
2 ),0),
Hd
j = max(Hd
j + (1 2)(Sh
Ha
i+Ad
j
2 ),0),
(2)
where, > 0, 0 < 1 <1 and 0< 2 <1 are parameters to be selected.
For a given match, a home team can be said to have outperformed expec
tations in an attacking sense if its attacking performance is greater than the
mean of its attacking rating and the oppositions defensive rating and thus,
when this is the case, both its home and away attacking ratings are increased
(or decreased, if its attacking performance is lower than expected). The same
is true if an away team outperforms expectations. A teams defensive ratings
are impacted in a similar way such that, if an opposing teams attacking
performance is lower than expected, its defensive rating is decreased (note
that lower defensive ratings indicate better defensive performance). The pa
rameter determines the inuence of the last match on the ratings of each
team whilst 1 and 2 determine the inuence of a home match on a teams
away ratings and the inuence of an away match on a teams home ratings
 respectively. If 1 = 0, the home teams away ratings will not be a ected
whilst the same is true of the away teams home ratings if 2 = 0. The
9
maximum operator is included to ensure that the GAP ratings for each team
cannot become negative. Parameter selection is discussed in section 6.
The GAP rating system described above has some similarities to, and, to
some extent, is inspired by, the pi-rating system de ned in Constantinou &
Fenton (2013). Some of the similarities between the two ratings systems are
described below:
1. The parameter performs the same function as for both GAP rat
ings and pi-ratings. The Elo rating system also has a similar learning
parameter.
2. Both GAP ratings and pi-ratings consist of separate home and away
ratings for each team (in order to account for the impact of home
advantage).
3. In GAP ratings, the parameters 1 and 2 govern the impact of a home
match on a teams away ratings and the impact of an away match on a
teams home rating respectively. In the pi-rating system, a parameter
is de ned with a similar function which serves both purposes (it is
necessary for the one parameter to serve both purposes to ensure that
the sum of the ratings over the entire league remains zero).
4. A pi-rating can roughly be interpreted as a teams expected winning
(or losing) margin over an average team in a league. GAP ratings can
similarly be interpreted as the expected number of attacking plays (as
de ned) of a team against an average opponent.
Despite the above similarities, there are a number of key di erences:
1. GAP ratings are de ned more generally than pi-ratings such that any
measure of attacking performance can be used as an input. It would,
however, be straightforward to extend pi-ratings in this way also.
2. In the GAP rating system, each team has four ratings corresponding to
its attacking and defensive performance and the location of the match
(home or away). Pi-ratings do not distinguish attacking and defensive
ability and thus each team is assigned two ratings corresponding to the
expected di erence in the number of goals scored by each team. This
makes GAP ratings more suitable for forecasting the total number of
goals in a match.
10
3. GAP ratings de ne the expected number of attacking plays by a home
(away) team to be the average of their home (away) GAP rating and
the away (home) defensive GAP rating of the opposition. Pi-ratings
de ne the expected winning (losing) margin of the home team to be
the di erence between the pi-ratings of the two teams.
4. pi-ratings are constrained such that the sum of the ratings over the
league is zero. For GAP ratings, the only constraint is that all ratings
must be greater than or equal to zero.
5. As described in the list of similarities above, GAP ratings have separate
parameters for the e ect of a home teams performance on its away
rating and an away teams performance on its home rating. This extra
exibility is possible in the former case because of the di erence in the
constraint described above.
5 From GAP Ratings to Probabilistic Fore
casts
Here, an approach to using GAP ratings to predict the probability that there
will be three or more goals in the match is described. Although a variety
of approaches could be taken to do this, in this paper, a simple logistic
regression approach is taken, allowing for multiple variables to inuence the
estimated probability. Let y = log( p
1 p
) where p is the estimated probability
 of the total number of goals exceeding 2.5. A regression model is de ned as
y = + 1(Ha
i+Hd
i+Aa
i+Ad
i)+ 2ri
(3)
where ri = 1
oi
is the odds implied probability (which may be derived from a
single bookmaker or averaged over several). The parameters are estimated
using least squares estimation. From y, the estimated probability p can easily
be derived.
6 Parameter Selection and Forecast Evalua
tion
GAP ratings require the selection of three parameters: , a parameter that
governs the impact of the most recent match on a teams ratings and 1 and
11
2
, parameters that govern the impact of a home match on a teams away
ratings and of an away match on a teams home ratings respectively. In
addition, the selection of a number of extra parameters is required depending
on the approach taken to forming probabilistic forecasts. Under the approach
described in section 5, and which is used to calculate the results shown in this
paper, a further three parameters are used in the logistic regression making
the total number of parameters six.
Given the probabilistic nature of the forecasts, parameter selection is per
formed with the aim of maximising forecast performance given a scoring rule,
a function of a probabilistic forecast and its outcome that, when averaged
over many forecasts and outcomes, measures the skill of the forecasting sys
tem (other approaches such as attempting to maximise pro t could also be
used but are not considered here). An important property of scoring rules
is propriety. A score is proper if it is optimised in expectation by the true
underlying probability or probability distribution from which the outcome
was drawn. It is often argued that only scoring rules that are proper should
be used in practice since, otherwise, a forecaster may be encouraged to issue
forecasts that dont re ect their true beliefs (Brocker & Smith (2008)).
The scoring rule of choice in this paper is the ignorance score (Good
(1952), Roulston & Smith (2002)), given by S(p(Y )) = log2(p(Y)) where
p(Y ) is the probability or (in the continuous case) probability density placed
on the outcome Y. The ignorance score is proper and is also conveniently
linked to the more well known concept of maximum likelihood in that the
aim is to maximise the mean of the logarithm of the probability placed on
the outcomes. A bene t of the ignorance score is in its interpretation. The
di erence between two ignorance scores calculated using two di erent forecast
systems of the same outcome can be interpreted as the number of bits of
information gained from using one over the other. For example, if forecast
system A has a mean ignorance of 0.75 and forecast system B has a mean
ignorance of 0.5, forecast system B provides 0.25 extra bits of information,
on average, than forecast system A since ignorance is a negatively oriented
score. This can be interpreted as placing 20.25
1.19 more probability on
the outcome, on average.
Parameter selection is performed by minimising the mean ignorance score
over all previous matches. This is done using the Nelder-Mead simplex algo
rithm as implemented in the fminsearch function in Matlab. For computa
tional reasons, this is done with respect to the three parameters that impact
the ratings and the logistic regression parameters are optimised using least
12
squares given the ratings that result. The parameters are therefore not all
optimised simultaneously. Since it is computationally expensive to optimise
the ratings parameters, this is done only between seasons and over all leagues
simultaneously. The logistic regression parameters, however, are optimised
after every round of games since it is computationally cheap to do so.
Auseful concept commonly used in weather forecasting is that of the `cli
matology. A climatology is simply de ned as a distribution of past states,
over some given time period. An example would be the distribution of max
imum temperatures at a speci c location on a given day over the last 100
years or, in the binary case, the proportion of days on which it has rained
over that time. The climatology gives a useful summary of past states but
can also be treated as a forecast itself. For example, weather forecasts can
not generally be expected to have skill beyond around two or three weeks
and thus, if one wanted to gain insight into how, say, the temperature might
pan out a year from now at a given location, the climatology would likely
provide the best information available. The concept of climatology can easily
be transferred into sports forecasting where, in this case, observing three or
more goals in a football match is conceptually similar to observing a rainy
day. The climatology is therefore used as an alternative baseline forecast,
the skill of which is compared with that of the forecast system de ned in
this paper. If the forecast system cannot outperform the climatology, it is of
little use in practice. The probability of exceeding 2.5 goals is, in fact, found
to be around 50 percent. All mean ignorance scores in this paper are quoted
relative to that of the climatology (i.e. with the climatological ignorance
subtracted) such that, if the mean ignorance is less than zero, the forecast
system outperforms the climatology, on average.
An alternative approach to the parameter selection approach performed
in this paper would be to maximise the pro t made through the betting
strategy. However, this would cause the function to be optimised to be less
smooth and would therefore make optimisation more challenging as the risk
of falling into a local maximum (minimum) would be increased. This is
therefore left as a suggestion for possible future work.
7 Dealing With Promotions and Relegations
It is almost universally the case that football leagues feature promotion
and/or relegation, i.e. if a team nishes top or close to the top of a league,
13
they are o ered the chance to play in the league above, whilst teams that
nish close to the bottom are `relegated to the league below. This links into
the broader question of how a teams ratings should transfer from one season
to another. Whilst a team that remains in the same league from one season
to the next already has a set of ratings with which to start the following
season, teams that enter the league will not and thus some approach is re
quired to initialise the ratings of such teams. A number of approaches could
be taken to this, varying somewhat in complexity. For example, data on
summer signings, preseason bookmakers odds and predictions from pundits
could all be utilised (though the latter may be hard to quantify). There is
also a question of how realistic it is for those teams that stay in the same
league to maintain their ratings from one season to the next given managerial
changes, player transfers etc. and thus extra data could be used to adjust
the ratings before the start of each season. In this paper, however, for sim
plicity, if a team remains in the same division, they retain their ratings from
the previous season whilst teams that are promoted to the league (i.e. come
from the league below) are given the average ratings of the teams relegated
from that league in the previous season and teams relegated to that league
are given the average rating of the promoted teams. Note, however, that
it is common for promoted teams to outperform the relegated teams they
replace. For example, it has been found that, in the English Premier League,
the promoted teams tend to achieve around 8 more points on average than
the relegated teams in the previous season (Constantinou & Fenton (2017)).
 8 Betting Strategies
This paper uses two di erent betting strategies based on the concept of `value
betting. In value betting, whether a bet is placed or not is determined by
whether the probabilistic forecast (if taken as a true probability) implies that
the odds have `value. The odds on a particular outcome are said to have
value if they are longer (i.e. generate a larger return) than they should be,
given the true probability1 of that outcome. Speci cally, the odds are said
to have value if pi > ri where, as de ned in section 2, pi represents the
`true probability and ri represents the odds implied probability. When this
1Here, we take the frequentist de nition of probability, i.e. that the probability
is the
expected relative frequency of outcomes were the match able to be repeated
independently
an in nite number of times
14
is the case, the expected pro t for the gambler is positive and, thus, by only
betting when there is value, they would pro t in the long term. In practice,
however, due to inevitable limitations inherent in any real world predictive
model, the underlying probability can only be estimated and thus will di er
from the true probability. Nonetheless a betting strategy can be de ned
by replacing the true probability, which is not known, with an estimated
probability. This strategy is referred to throughout this paper as the Level
Stakes strategy. Under this strategy, a unit bet is made on the ith outcome
if and only if the forecast probability exceeds the odds implied probability,
i.e. if pi > ri, where pi is the forecast probability.
Analternative strategy makes use of the Kelly Criterion (Kelly Jr (1956)).
Under the Kelly criterion, the proportion of ones wealth placed on a partic
ular outcome is given by
f =max( rp 1
r 1 ,0)
(4)
where p is the gamblers estimated probability of the outcome and r is the
decimal odds o ered by the bookmaker. If the forecast probability is less
than the odds-implied probability, the bet is not taken since the stake is
zero. The idea behind the Kelly criterion is that the bankroll of the gambler
`grows over time by increasing the stake proportionally to their bank. In this
paper, however, the approach of Boshnakov et al. (2017) is taken, in which
equation 4 is always taken as a proportion of 1 and therefore does not depend
on the bankroll. Each stake is multiplied by a constant such that the average
stake when a bet is taken is exactly 1. This is done so that the results are
directly comparable with the level stakes case above. This is referred to in
the results section of this paper as the Kelly strategy.
In value betting, considering forecast probabilities rather than actual
probabilities removes the guarantee of making a pro t in expectation and
thus the performance of the forecasts and betting strategy will depend heav
ily on the skill of the forecasts or, more speci cally, the ability of the
forecasts
to identify pro table betting opportunities. With this in mind, some addi
tional conditions are placed on whether to bet or not on a speci c match.
Bets are not placed until both teams have played at least six league games
during that season in order for the ratings to have su ciently `learned about
the attacking and defensive ratings of the teams. Although teams remaining
in the same league from one season to the next retain their rating, no account
is taken of transfer activity and other close-season changes and so the ratings
15
are prone to being uninformative at this stage of the season. The rst six
matches are chosen to be ineligible for betting in this case because there is
some evidence that this is the point at which the league starts to settle down
and re ect the overall strength of the teams (Cronin (2019)). In addition,
 bets are never placed on the last six games for each team as games at this
time of the season can be particularly unpredictable due to di erences in mo
tivation between teams. For example, a team ghting relegation at the end of
the season will have more to play for than a team safely in mid-table at that
stage and so there is more incentive for the former to pick their best team or
put more e ort into winning the game. Indeed, bookmakers will often make
the relegation threatened team favourites to win in those situations. These
kinds of factors are hard to factor into a mathematical model and whether
to bet or not may require some human judgement beyond the scope of this
paper.
9 Experimental Design
The performance of the probabilistic forecasts formed using GAP ratings
along with the two betting strategies is demonstrated with the following
experimental design. Attacking and defensive GAP ratings are calculated for
each team and updated after each match. Promotions and relegations are
dealt with using the approach described in section 7 in which newly promoted
teams are initialised with the average ratings of the relegated teams from the
previous season and relegated teams with the average ratings of the promoted
teams. For each match, the current attacking and defensive GAP ratings of
each team and the odds-implied probabilities from the BetBrain maximum
odds are then used to calculate a forecast probability of the number of goals
exceeding 2.5 using the logistic regression model de ned by equation 3. The
parameter values used to calculate the ratings are optimised over all available
data in previous seasons and used for the entirety of that season whilst the
logistic regression parameters are optimised after every round of games (see
section 6 for details). Data from the 2000/2001 season are used solely for
parameter selection purposes since no previous data are available. Both the
Level Stakes and the Kelly strategies de ned in section 8 are then used and
the pro t/loss for each match based on these strategies are calculated. This
is repeated under the assumptions of both maximum and average Betbrain
odds. As explained in section 8, the rst and last six matches of the season
16
for each team are not treated as eligible for betting.
The above experimental design is applied six times using di erent mea
sures of attacking performance as inputs to the GAP ratings. The six di er
ent inputs tested are listed in table 2. The results of the experiment using
each GAP rating input are described and compared in the results section.
Measure
1 Goals
2 Shots
3 Shots on Target
4 Corners
5 Shots and Corners
6 Shots on Target and Corners
Table 2: GAP rating inputs tested
10 Results
The stated aim of this paper is to build strategies with which to make a
long term gambling pro t on European football matches. The obvious rst
consideration is therefore whether the forecasts and betting strategy are able
to achieve this. Here, the pro tability of both betting strategies is assessed
in two di erent settings. The majority of the analysis is performed in the
case in which the maximum BetBrain odds are assumed to be available. The
main results are then repeated but with the pro t/loss calculated using the
average odds. The e ect of betting with odds that are a weighted average of
the maximum and average odds is then assessed. Finally, the forecast skill
of the forecasts under each GAP rating is compared.
10.1 Maximum Odds
The cumulative pro t a gambler would have made by applying the Level
Stakes strategy over all of the considered seasons using the maximum Bet
Brain odds is shown as a function of time in gure 1 for each input to the
GAP ratings. The pro t in each season for each input is shown in table 3.
Under four of the considered inputs, a pro t would have been made over
17
thisperiod. Inthecasesinwhichonlyshotsandbothshotsandcornersare
considered, thetotalpro t is substantial, reachingaround500units. This
corresponds toanaveragepro t of around0.8percentperbet taken. It
isunclearwhetherthesmall nancialgaininconsideringcornersalongside
shots isduetochanceoragenuineimprovement intheabilityto ndvalue
bets. There isasubstantialdi erencebetweenthepro tmade fromusing
onlyshotsontargetandfromincludingcornersaswell,however,suggesting
that cornersmaybeauseful addition intermsof theperformanceof the
strategy. It isalsointerestingtonotethatusingonlycornersas inputsout
performsusingonlyshotsontarget. Finally, strikingly,whengoals scored
isusedastheGAPratinginput, thegamblingreturnis far lowerthanfor
eachoftheothermeasures,resultinginalargeloss. Itisworthnotingthat,
werethegamblertobetonthenumberofgoalsexceeding2.5inallpossible
matches(thatisincludingthosedeemednottohavevalue),theywouldmake
anaveragelossof1.81percentwhilst, iftheyweretobetthatthenumberof
goalswouldbelessthan2.5,theywouldmakeanaveragelossof1.46percent.
Thereisthusasmallbiasinwhichbetteroddsaretypicallyo eredonthere
beingfewerthan2.5goals.This,however, isnotenoughtobeexploitablein
termsofmakingapro t.
Season G S ST C S+C ST+C
2005/06 +35.14 +14.16 +0.95 6.50 +41.54 7.38
2006/07 18.50 37.09 88.54 +0.12 +11.81 3.33
2007/08 51.35 +80.93 +47.69 +45.70 +65.74 +45.20
2008/09 115.48 26.17 +46.45 12.60 39,82 1.57
2009/10 70.59 +76.49 14.41 39.40 +66.06 10.01
2010/11 106.79 +58.15 9.07 +55.23 +45.22 +39.80
2011/12 28.46 +173.16 +131.73 13.41 +127.94 +88.79
2012/13 31.59 +38.15 +16.50 +9.61 +91.54 +47.25
2013/14 19.60 +13.44 16.41 +29.17 +17.38 4.38
2014/15 99.30 49.63 86.33 +1.88 +16.64 19.26
2015/16 82.91 13.05 127.51 94.08 +5.29 110.63
2016/17 2.91 18.06 102.92 56.59 13.65 102.91
2017/18 +31.50 +89.51 +53.51 +105.94 +99.36 +88.45
Total 631.12 +414.72 148.36 +25.07 +535.01 +50.02
Table3:Totalpro tineachseasonfromusingtheLevelStakesstrategywith
maximumBetBrainoddswhenusinggoals (G), shots (S), shotsontarget
(ST),corners(C),shotsandcorners(S+C)andshotsontargetandcorners
(ST+C) as the input to theGAPratings. The input that results inthe
highestpro t ishighlightedingreen.
Whilst theaboveresultsconsider theperformanceof the forecastsover
all leagues considered, it isalsoof interest toassess theperformanceover
individual leagues. Theoverall pro t thatwouldhavebeenmade ineach
18
Figure 1: Cumulative pro t over time from using the Level Stakes betting
strategy with the maximum BetBrain odds for each input to the GAP ratings.
league under the Level Stakes strategy is shown in table 4 for each GAP rating
input. The strategy appears to be fairly robust. For example, using shots and
corners as the GAP rating input would have made a pro t in six out of the
ten leagues considered with the English Premier League and Championship
returning the largest pro ts. In fact, for each league considered, at least one
of the inputs would have resulted in a pro t. Notably, however, using goals
as the GAP rating input would have resulted in an overall loss in all ten
leagues considered.
The results above demonstrate that using the forecasts with the Level
Stakes betting strategy would have produced a cumulative pro t over the
 seasons considered. However, from these results alone, it is not possible to
tell whether this could have occurred entirely by chance, i.e. the forecasts
19
League G S ST C S+C ST+C
English Premier League 56.14 +129.70 46.19 +41.18 +139.63 10.72
English Championship 82.19 +187.79 +34.00 +78.91 +204.05 +62.29
English League One 27.24 40.74 26.60 68.85 14.14 31.40
English League Two 44.11 +3.62 +9.93 22.93 2.16 49.36
English National League 47.30 +21.39 +90.31 +8.38 +99.58 +97.05
Scottish Premier League 43.49 +35.53 33.33 +133.27 +80.82 +22.32
Spanish La Liga 105.74 +41.74 +6.58 33.79 +44.38 +23.18
French Ligue One 98.56 +26.82 70.57 53.97 33.45 31.15
Italian Serie A 65.56 30.92 69.15 62.19 26.65 8.75
German Bundesliga 60.79 +39.79 43.34 +5.06 +42.95 23.44
Combined 631.12 +414.72 148.36 +25.07 +535.01 +50.02
Table 4: Total pro t for each league, along with the combined pro t, from
using the Level Stakes strategy with maximum BetBrain odds when using
goals (G), shots (S), shots on target (ST), corners (C), shots and corners
(S+C) and shots on target and corners (ST+C) as the input to the GAP
ratings. The input that results in the highest pro t is highlighted in green.
got lucky in identifying bets that resulted in a pro t over time. In order
to assess this, actual betting performance is compared with the results that
would typically be expected were the gambler to bet randomly with the same
probabilities. A simple approach is therefore taken whereby the number
of bets actually taken in a season is preserved but those bets are chosen
randomly, rather than using the outlined betting strategy. This process is
repeated multiple times with di erent realisations to give a range of possible
scenarios of how the pro t and loss might turn out when this is done. If the
actual results are typical of what happens when bets are made randomly,
then little condence should be had in the performance of the forecasts for
identifying value bets. In gure 2, the results of doing this using shots and
corners as the input to the GAP ratings are shown in the upper panel. Here,
the green line shows the actual pro t and loss over time whereas each black
line shows the pro t and loss achieved by randomly choosing bets under
di erent realisations. In the lower panel, the red line shows the pro t/loss
obtained from only betting when the forecasts suggest negative value and the
black lines show the pro t/loss from betting randomly at the same frequency.
Since the actual pro t made is far higher than what would be typical if the
bets were chosen randomly, a great deal of condence is gained that the
forecasts are informative for the purpose of this strategy. Moreover, it is clear
that the forecasts are also capable of identifying bets that o er negative value.
The latter could potentially be useful when gambling on a betting exchange
in which gamblers are able to act like a bookmaker and `lay bets for other
gamblers. Given the lack of available betting exchange data, this is not tested
20
in this paper, however.
Figure 2: Upper panel: Cumulative pro t as a function of time using the
Level Stakes betting strategy (green line) and when bets are randomly taken
at the same frequency (black lines) using maximum BetBrain odds. Lower
panel: Cumulative pro t as a function of time betting only when the forecast
suggests there is negative value (red line) and when bets are taken randomly
at the same frequency (black lines).
In order to illustrate the results of the above process for each GAP rating
input, the proportion of random bet scenarios with a higher pro t/loss is
shown in gure 3 (note the logarithmic scale) as a function of time (calculated
at the end of each season). Here, in all cases other than when goals are used
as inputs to the GAP ratings, the betting strategy is eventually able to
outperform all random bet scenarios tested. When goals are used as the
input, on the other hand, there is little evidence that betting performance is
 21
better than that which could be achieved by chance.
Figure 3: The proportion of random bet scenarios with higher cumulative
pro t as a function of time for each GAP rating input considered when using
maximum BetBrain odds.
Whilst the results given above suggest that the Level Stakes betting strat
egy is able to identify enough value bets to make a robust long term pro t
for certain GAP rating inputs, it is important to rule out the possibility that
the forecasts dont simply identify arbitrage opportunities. An arbitrage
opportunity is a case in which opportunities exist for strategically placing
bets with bookmakers that have di ering odds and guaranteeing a pro t.
Such an opportunity is available when the overround is less than zero. The
mean overround of bets selected by the forecasts and betting strategy in each
league and for each GAP rating input is shown in table 5. Here, in all cases,
the mean overround is greater than zero, showing that a pro t is made de
22
spite the built in bookmakers pro t margin of the chosen bets and hence
the favourable results do not simply occur as a result of identifying arbitrage
opportunities.
League G S ST C S+C ST+C
English Premier League 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011
English Championship 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.014
English League One 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016
English League Two 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016
English National League 0.017 0.017 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.018
Scottish Premier League 0.015 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016
Spanish La Liga 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012
French Ligue One 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.014
Italian Serie A 0.012 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013
German Bundesliga 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.012
Combined 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.014
Table 5: Mean overround of bets placed in each league, along with that of
all the leagues combined, when using goals (G), shots (S), shots on target
(ST), corners (C), shots and corners (S+C) and shots on target and corners
(ST+C) as inputs to the GAP ratings and using maximum BetBrain odds.
The forecasts considered in this paper are formed using logistic regression
with the sum of both the attacking and defensive ratings for the home and
away team as a single term (equation 3). However, an alternative is to use
the GAP ratings as separate inputs to allow each of the ratings to impact
the forecasts to a potentially di erent extent. Although details of the results
are omitted here, this was tested over all eligible matches (i.e. more than
six matches into the season and more than six matches before the end of
the season) for each GAP rating input to assess whether this improved the
forecasts. The resulting forecasts were found to have less support than the
forecasts considered in this paper, when tested using Akaikes Information
Criterion (AIC). These results imply that there is little evidence to distin
guish the importance of each rating in terms of building the forecasts and so
this is not considered further.
Another issue worth visiting is to check that the pro t/loss achieved us
ing the Level Stakes betting strategy does not simply occur as a result of
testing too many inputs to the GAP ratings and nding one that works well
in terms of making a pro t by chance. A simple way to account for multiple
testing is to use the Bonferroni correction (Bonferroni (1936)). The Bonfer
roni correction accounts for multiple tests by adjusting the signi cance level
to account for the number of hypotheses tested. Under the Bonferroni
correction, if a signi cance level of is required for a single test, and m tests
23
are performed, the required signi cance level of each of the tests is adjusted
to m
 .
In gure 3, the pro t/loss from each GAP rating input was compared
with that achieved from randomly betting at the same frequency. This was
done by testing 1024 di erent random sets of bets. The proportion of ran
domly selected sets of bets achieving a greater pro t than that of the Level
Stakes betting strategy can then be interpreted as an estimated p-value of
the pro t/loss. Here, this is done again but with one million random sets
of bets in order to estimate the p-value more accurately. This can then
be compared to adjusted signi cance levels calculated using the Bonferroni
correction. The estimated p-value for each GAP rating input is shown in
table 6, along with the proportion of random sets of bets that would have
returned a pro t. Each are compared with adjusted signi cance levels at the
5%, 1% and 0.1% levels (denoted with one, two and three stars respectively).
Since the pro t/loss for each GAP rating input other than goals is highly
signi cant even when multiple testing is accounted for, the results in this
paper do not appear to result from testing too many inputs. In addition, the
fact that, in each case, only a handful of randomly chosen sets would have
resulted in a pro t demonstrates the di culty of pro ting over this number
of bets without truly having some ability to identify value.
GAP rating input
Estimated p-value Prop. trials with pro t
Goals
0.541765
Shots
Shots on Target
Corners
Shots and Corners
0.000000
0.000124
0.000003
0.000000
Shots on Target and Corners 0.000000
0.000017
0.000009
0.000000
0.000004
0.000008
0.000000
Table 6: Estimated p-values for each GAP rating input along with the pro
portion of random sets of bets returning a pro t when using maximum Bet
Brain odds. Estimated p-values with one, two and three stars next to them
indicate signi cance at the 5%, 1% and 0.1% levels respectively, adjusted
using the Bonferroni correction.
All of the above results make use of the Level Stakes strategy in which
a unit bet is taken if a forecast implies the odds o er `value. However, in
24
section 8, another strategy, called the Kelly strategy, was de ned in which the
stake is allowed to vary based on the di erence in implied probability between
the forecast and the odds on o er. Odds perceived to have greater `value are
assigned higher stakes. Here, the pro t/loss of applying this strategy with the
forecasts de ned in this paper is demonstrated. In each case, the stakes are
adjusted so that the average stake is one. This makes the pro t/loss directly
comparable with the level stakes strategy which has formed the basis of the
results so far.
The pro t/loss of using each GAP rating input along with the Kelly
strategy with maximum BetBrain odds is shown as a function of time in
gure 4. Here, the solid lines represent the pro t/loss of the Kelly strat
egy whilst, for comparison, the dotted lines represent the pro t/loss of the
Level Stakes strategy. The results here are striking. In all cases, there is
 an improvement in terms of pro t, whilst forecasts formed using each of the
measures of attacking performance other than goals result in a pro t. This
represents a substantial improvement and highlights the potential for the use
of alternative betting strategies alongside the forecasts produced.
10.2 Average odds
Selected results are now repeated for the case in which average rather than
maximum BetBrain odds are assumed to be available. The cumulative pro t
under each GAP rating input both for the Level Stakes and Kelly betting
strategies are shown in gure 5 as a function of time. In contrast to the
maximum odds case, a substantial loss is made, demonstrating that the fore
casts do not appear to be informative enough to overcome the substantial
overround in this case (around 6.8 percent).
Despite the substantial loss, it is worthwhile to consider the performance
of each of the betting strategies compared to a case in which bets are ran
domly taken at the same frequency. Similarly to gure 3, the proportion
of random bet scenarios (i.e scenarios in which the same number of bets are
selected as under the Level Stakes betting strategy but randomly rather than
using the forecast probability) in which the cumulative pro t is higher than
that achieved by the Level Stakes strategy is shown at the end of each season
in gure 6. Here, despite the fact that a loss is made, the strategy performs
better than would be the case were bets taken randomly. This means that,
whilst the strategy is unable to nd enough value bets to make a long term
pro t, it is able to identify bets that have a low `negative value and is there
25
Figure 4: Cumulative pro t/loss of using GAP ratings with each input along
side the Kelly strategy (solid lines) and the level stakes strategy (dotted lines)
when using maximum odds.
fore successful in reducing losses over time (though in practice it would be
better simply not to bet at all).
10.3 Contrasting Betting Performance Under Maxi
mum and Average Odds
There is a stark di erence between the results achieved when assuming maxi
mumandaverage Betbrain odds. In the former case, a substantial and robust
pro t is made whilst, in the latter, there is a clear loss. It is worth
considering
the implication of this both in terms of the performance of the forecasts and
the e ciency of the market. To make a pro t under a value betting strategy
26
Figure 5: Cumulative pro t/loss of using GAP ratings with each input along
side the Kelly strategy (solid lines) and the level stakes strategy (dotted lines)
when using average BetBrain odds.
such as the Level Stakes and Kelly strategies, two essential ingredients are
required. Firstly, there must be odds available in which the probability of the
outcome is higher than the odds-implied probability, that is odds that o er
value. If such opportunities exist, it can be said that the market is ine cient
since a market that takes into account all information would be re ective of
the true probability (plus a pro t margin). The second requirement is that
the forecasts are able to identify such opportunities. Someone in possession
of the true probabilities would have the tools to do this and would therefore
easily be able to make a pro t over time by only betting on odds that o er
value. In practice, given the inherent limitations in all mathematical models,
the forecasts are not expected to re ect the probabilities of each outcome
27
Figure 6: The proportion of random bet scenarios with higher cumulative
pro t as a function of time for each GAP rating input considered when using
average BetBrain odds.
perfectly. Given this, in order to make a long term expected pro t, the ex
pected pro t from value bets that are successfully identi ed must not be
cancelled out by bets that are incorrectly selected and in fact have negative
 value.
The fact that a robust pro t is made in the maximum odds case implies
that both of the requirements to make a pro t are satis ed, that is the market
de ned by the maximum BetBrain odds is ine cient and that the forecasts
are informative enough to identify value bets. For the average odds case, the
fact that a loss is made has a profound implication in that it con rms that
the forecasts cannot represent perfect probabilities. This is because, if the
average odds market were e cient, no bets would be taken and the pro t/loss
28
would be zero. If the market were ine cient, value bets would be identi ed
and an expected pro t made. The substantial loss can therefore only result
from limitations in the performance of the forecast probabilities. In addition,
since a pro t cannot be demonstrated, it is impossible to conclude whether
the average odds market is ine cient or not.
The results above clearly show that the overround in the odds impacts
the pro tability of both betting strategies. Whilst using the maximum odds
clearly results in a sustained pro t, using the average odds results in a loss. In
fact, there is a substantial di erence in the overround of the maximum odds
and the average odds. In the former case, the mean overround is 1.57 per
cent whilst, in the latter, it is a substantially higher 6.8 percent. In practice,
nding and betting with the maximum odds may be a prohibitively time con
suming task. However, by carefully choosing a selection of bookmakers and
selecting the best odds among those, a substantially lower e ective overround
may be possible than if the average odds were taken. Another potential way
to reduce the overround is to use a betting exchange. Betting exchanges often
have a far lower e ective overround than bookmakers, even once commission
is taken into account. For example, if even odds (i.e. decimal odds of 2) are
o ered on both outcomes in the over/under 2.5 goal market, a commission
rate of 5 percent such as that charged by Betfair would result in e ective
odds of 1.95 on both outcomes, corresponding to an e ective overround of
1
1.95
+ 1
1.95
1 =0.026 or 2.6 percent.
The performance of the Level Stakes and Kelly betting strategies in a
setting in which the odds on o er are higher than the average but lower than
the maximum BetBrain odds is now considered. To nd odds that are a
weighted average of the two, the following relation is used:
where rmax
i
and rave
i
r =
1
1
rmax
i
+(1 ) 1
rave
i
(5)
are the maximum and average odds respectively, deter
mines the distance between them, and the resulting odds are r. The reason
the odds are inverted rst is so that they are weighted in terms of their
odds-implied probabilities. The overall pro t from both strategies is shown
as a function of in gure 7 under both the Level Stakes strategy (top) and
the Kelly strategy (bottom). Here, as previously shown, for both strategies,
using the average odds produces a loss for all GAP rating inputs. However,
 a pro t can still be made when the odds are substantially lower than the
29
maximum and this suggests that the forecasts may be e ective in achieving
a pro t even when the best odds are not available or it is not practical to
compare the odds of a large number of bookmakers.
Figure 7: Total pro t as a function of for the level stakes (top) and Kelly
(bottom) betting strategies for each GAP rating input.
10.4 Assessing Forecast Accuracy
Whilst the pro t made is a useful indication of the performance of the fore
casts under each GAP rating input, it is also of interest to evaluate the
forecast skill (accuracy). The advantage of this is twofold. Firstly, someone
may wish to use the forecasts for some other purpose, perhaps with some
di erent betting strategy or even for some di erent purpose altogether such
as choosing whether to attend a match or not! Secondly, it is interesting to
30
see whether there is general agreement between the relative forecast skill and
betting performance when using each of the GAP rating inputs. The mean
ignorance score of the forecasts under each GAP rating input is shown for
each league in table 7. Here, there appears to be reasonable agreement be
tween the skill of the forecasts and the betting performance. This is a useful
observation since, if increased forecast skill generally results in larger pro ts,
some condence can be had that optimising the parameters with respect to
the ignorance score is a reasonable thing to do. This, in fact, need not be
the case, however. In the two betting strategies outlined in section 8, a pro t
is expected to be made when the `true probability is higher than the odds
implied probability and thus a higher pro t will be expected from forecasts
that are able to identify value bets more often. The ignorance score, on the
other hand, favours forecasts that place the most probability on the outcome,
on average. It is therefore the case that, for the Level Stakes betting strategy,
the forecasts need not be the most accurate, they just need to be capable of
successfully identifying enough value bets to make a pro t.
There is, in fact, a connection between the ignorance score and gambling
returns. It can be shown that, if in a series of bets, a gambler sets the
proportion of their wealth placed on each outcome to be their estimated
probability distribution, their expected return is 2 raised to the power of the
mean ignorance of the house (note that the ignorance score of the house can
be calculated even if the sum of the odds-implied probabilities do not add up
to one; this, however, gives the house a distinct advantage) relative to that of
the gambler (Roulston & Smith (2002)). For both of the betting strategies in
this paper, however, bets are only taken if the odds o er `value. The e cacy
of both strategies can thus only be tested empirically.
11 Discussion
In this paper, the GAP rating system has been de ned and demonstrated as a
basis with which to build probabilistic forecasts. Alongside two value betting
strategies, the resulting forecasts have been shown to be capable of producing
a robust pro t in the over/under 2.5 goal betting market using match data as
inputs. At rst glance, the results may seem somewhat counterintuitive since
one might have expected the number of goals actually scored in past matches
to be the main factor impacting the number of goals scored in future matches.
In football, however, perhaps more than in many other sports, scoring is a
31
League G S ST C S+C ST+C
English Premier League 1.36 1.48 1.46 1.52 1.62 1.48
English Championship 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.58 0.39
English League One +0.05 +0.12 +0.12 +0.08 +0.04 +0.12
English League Two +0.08 +0.12 +0.11 +0.12 0.00 +0.12
English National League 0.33 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.47 0.52
Scottish Premier League 0.38 0.62 0.41 1.02 0.63 0.62
Spanish La Liga 3.08 3.36 3.44 3.23 3.12 3.36
 French Ligue One 1.37 1.79 1.59 1.84 1.99 1.79
Italian Serie A 1.05 1.22 1.15 0.98 0.86 1.22
German Bundesliga 2.39 2.20 2.17 2.03 2.10 2.22
Combined 0.87 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.99 0.97
Table 7: Mean ignorance score for each league, along with the combined
score, when using goals (G), shots (S), shots on target (ST), corners (C),
shots and corners (S+C) and shots on target and corners (ST+C) as the
input to the GAP ratings. The input that results in the best mean ignorance
score is highlighted in green. For clarity, each entry in the table has been
multiplied by 100.
relatively di cult task with a substantial element of chance involved. This
means that, whilst a team may dominate a match, they may simply be
unlucky or have an `o day in terms of converting chances. Conversely, a
team with relatively few chances may simply get lucky and still manage to
score. If one team has a large number of chances and fails to score while
another has relatively few but still manages to score at least one goal, this
information may not be very informative when predicting the number of goals
that might occur in future matches. A team that has more shots and corners
is usually far more likely to score than those that achieve fewer. It therefore
seems reasonable that shots and corners should provide a better indication
of how the game went than the number of goals scored.
The GAP rating system has a number of similarities with another well
know rating system in the football forecasting literature called the pi-rating
system. These similarities and a number of key di erences have been de
scribed. One key di erence is that, unlike pi-ratings, which estimate the dif
ference in the number of goals scored by two teams, GAP ratings di erentiate
between the attacking and defensive capabilities of each team. Consequently,
whilst there is no obvious way of using pi-ratings to create informative fore
casts for the over/under market (since the expected di erence in the number
of goals scored does not give a strong indication of the total number of goals
scored), GAP ratings are ideally suited to this. GAP ratings are also directly
applicable to the match outcome market in which the potential pro tability
of pi-ratings has been demonstrated (Constantinou & Fenton (2013)). Given
32
the demonstrated success of using match statistics rather than goals as inputs
for the ratings, an interesting avenue for further research is to test both the
pi-rating and GAP rating systems with di erent match statistics as inputs
in this market. In fact, this will form the basis of another paper (in prepa
ration). Preliminary results suggest that both sets of ratings are capable of
yielding a robust pro t and that, consistently with the results in this paper,
match statistics other than goals tend to produce far more accurate forecasts
and a larger pro t in each case.
It is worth noting that, whilst the forecasts and betting strategies pre
sented in this paper have been found to perform extremely favourably in that
they produce a clear long term pro t in the over/under market, there appears
to be some evidence that the results from the strategy would have worsened
in recent years, since the cumulative pro t appears to have `levelled o (i.e.
the cumulative pro t does not appear to have been growing as quickly). It
is not clear why this should be the case and this forms the basis of potential
future work. One possible explanation for this is that, in recent years, the
betting odds have started to take better account of additional performance
data such as shots and corners. This seems like a plausible explanation given
the increase in the availability of in-match data and greater interest in sta
tistical modelling for sporting events. One explanation that can be ruled out
is an upward shift in the typical pro t margin of the bookmakers, which has
in fact fallen in recent years.
The e cacy of GAP ratings for producing forecasts for the over/under
2.5 goal has been demonstrated and the potential to extend their use to the
match outcome market discussed. Testing the performance of the ratings
 in these two markets is straightforward because historical odds are easily
available. However, in the modern game, a vast number of other betting
markets are often available. For example, many bookmakers give odds on
whether the total number of goals will exceed 1.5, 3.5, 4.5 etc and it would
be easy to extend the use of GAP ratings to these markets. Other examples
of markets in which the ratings could be utilised include the total number of
corners, the half time score and the number of goals scored by a single team.
There is also signi cant potential for the GAP rating system to be applied
to other sports, particularly those in which there are well de ned statistics
other than goals or points that signify attacking performance. In basketball
or ice hockey, for example, the number of shots in a game could be used
as an input for the ratings. In American football, a measure of attacking
performance could be the number of yards gained by each team, the number
33
of times each team got close to scoring or some other similar measure.
The results in this paper demonstrate that measures of attacking perfor
mance other than goals can be more informative in predicting future goalscor
ing performance than goals themselves, so much so that the former can result
in pro table betting strategies whilst the latter does not. Given the wide ar
ray of match statistics available, there is great potential to come up with
innovative measures of the attacking performance of football teams. The
GAP rating system described provides a solid basis on which to incorporate
these data to build informative and pro table probabilistic forecasts.
34
A ParameterValues
Thefollowingtablesshowtheparametervaluesselectedatthebeginningof
thestatedseasonforagivenGAPratinginput.
Shots
Season 1 2
2005/06 0.459 0.481 0.566
2006/07 0.449 0.449 0.700
2007/08 0.446 0.478 0.654
2008/09 0.476 0.480 0.689
2009/10 0.405 0.477 0.852
2010/11 0.426 0.476 0.813
2011/12 0.464 0.491 0.660
2012/13 0.468 0.491 0.637
2013/14 0.451 0.491 0.560
2014/15 0.407 0.492 0.568
2015/16 0.437 0.496 0.566
2016/17 0.445 0.497 0.551
2017/18 0.437 0.496 0.566
Goals
Season 1 2
2005/06 0.395 0.109 0.909
2006/07 0.103 0.569 0.490
2007/08 0.474 0.144 0.924
2008/09 0.478 0.487 0.391
2009/10 0.210 0.566 0.439
2010/11 0.226 0.495 0.483
2011/12 0.158 0.534 0.500
2012/13 0.121 0.559 0.504
2013/14 0.121 0.519 0.520
2014/15 0.424 0.492 0.542
2015/16 0.086 0.595 0.528
2016/17 0.075 0.534 0.665
2017/18 0.078 0.515 0.847
ShotsandCorners
Season 1 2
 2005/06 0.183 0.491 0.739
2006/07 0.455 0.454 0.715
2007/08 0.450 0.459 0.710
2008/09 0.435 0.477 0.671
2009/10 0.475 0.483 0.625
2010/11 0.466 0.484 0.650
2011/12 0.469 0.496 0.603
2012/13 0.481 0.492 0.553
2013/14 0.422 0.492 0.541
2014/15 0.436 0.497 0.543
2015/16 0.452 0.499 0.535
2016/17 0.425 0.497 0.543
2017/18 0.436 0.493 0.546
ShotsonTarget
Season 1 2
2005/06 0.176 0.551 0.724
2006/07 0.449 0.464 0.735
2007/08 0.466 0.471 0.694
2008/09 0.450 0.478 0.762
2009/10 0.413 0.482 0.868
2010/11 0.434 0.475 0.800
2011/12 0.500 0.485 0.738
2012/13 0.480 0.491 0.734
2013/14 0.467 0.490 0.786
2014/15 0.478 0.490 0.793
2015/16 0.499 0.504 0.804
2016/17 0.494 0.513 0.816
2017/18 0.500 0.504 0.796
35
ShotsonTargetandCorners
Season 1 2
2005/06 0.163 0.510 0.795
2006/07 0.445 0.463 0.723
2007/08 0.407 0.460 0.779
2008/09 0.434 0.475 0.662
2009/10 0.423 0.484 0.622
2010/11 0.445 0.484 0.653
2011/12 0.432 0.495 0.614
2012/13 0.444 0.503 0.558
2013/14 0.480 0.491 0.567
2014/15 0.422 0.496 0.560
2015/16 0.432 0.509 0.541
2016/17 0.441 0.517 0.557
2017/18 0.490 0.519 0.552
Corners
Season 1 2
2005/06 0.173 0.468 0.818
2006/07 0.464 0.495 0.763
2007/08 0.405 0.474 0.771
2008/09 0.388 0.482 0.640
2009/10 0.321 0.485 0.572
2010/11 0.366 0.503 0.581
2011/12 0.342 0.498 0.571
2012/13 0.311 0.491 0.548
2013/14 0.348 0.493 0.552
2014/15 0.426 0.488 0.547
2015/16 0.297 0.487 0.525
2016/17 0.297 0.490 0.538
2017/18 0.426 0.488 0.547
 GAPratinginput 1 2
Goals 2.0629 0.0026 +4.0918
Shots 2.3009 +0.0070 +3.8969
ShotsonTarget 2.1576 +0.0086 +3.9135
Corners 2.4001 +0.0176 +3.9910
ShotsandCorners 2.4287 +0.0070 +3.8912
ShotsonTargetandCorners 2.3010 +0.0081 +3.8815
Table8: Logistic regressionparametervalues for eachGAPrating input,
calculatedusingallavailableyearsofdata.
Acknowledgements
Iamindebtedtotwoanonymousreviewersandahandlingeditorwhopro
videdinvaluablefeedbackonearlierversionsofthispaper.
References
36
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later and then Inon versus gimon that is a game they pred predicted today to end at
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individuals who are winning from EET experts family I personally know I mean I
personally know individuals who are winning from the easb free section I personally
know individuals who are able to get winning selections from football prediction
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everyone it's liam hartley i'm here to talk to you today about my football betting
algorithm which is mostly written in python with some sql sprinkled on the side
it's all deployed into aws and i'm using this to publish reports onto my website
that we can all use to beat the bookmakers so let's see what's all about first
piece of code that i looked at was this fpl project it's got some basic functions
to get the teams from the fpl api and to get single teams and to get players yadda
yadda so i started using this to build my own tool to look at the chances of a team
scoring a certain amount of goals in a given game week march 2020 i wrote this
article to highlight some of the pieces i'd done and ultimately i came out with an
average goals for each team and what you can do with the average amount of goals
over a set period of time is you can use the poisson distribution formula which is
quite common in sports betting and from there you can calculate the odds of each
team scoring any given amount of goals for a given week so for instance arsenal
were at 30 to score zero goals um 36 to score one goal 21 score two goals and those
numbers can quite easily be translated in odds so this was the sort of beginning of
the whole project fast forward to this year january 1st i was keeping myself busy
over new year's and the project looks more like this this is the methodology which
uh the model still follows to this day but in a slightly more advanced way which
i'll show you shortly but this is the workflow right so scrapes the predicted
lineups see who might be playing take the average xg for each player over the last
x amount of games take the average xg of the entire team based on that adjust the
expected goals for home and away and the team's form and also the opponent's
defense of seeing how good the opponent's defense is will impact the likelihood of
the other team scoring goals from those numbers creating the probabilities of goals
scored with the poisson distribution convert that into homemade odds and then this
is kind of where the magic happens is we also scrape the bookies for their odds and
then compare those odds to find value and a value bet is when the bookies have
mispriced a bet so this happens because bookies have to balance their books so it's
quite common for instance when manchester united are playing everyone thinks
manchester united is gonna win because the fans just love manchester united so it's
quite easy to make money by betting against manchester united most of the time and
this is exactly what the project looks for the project looks for when people aren't
betting rationally people are betting with their hearts and their gut feeling and
bookies are forced to balance their books because they know the likely outcome is
not always you know 90 manchester united are gonna win and this weekend was a
perfect example of this so if i just skip ahead to the reports you can see that
this weekend just gone predicted goals for brentford and also predicted for
brentford to win and obviously we only put this at like a 56 chance but 4.84
implies by the bookies the inverse of this so those odds from the bookies implied
that there was a 20 chance of brentford winning which is just simply ridiculous if
you were going into that game you would never say brentford have a 20 chance of
winning the project has matured somewhat and the architecture is a lot more
advanced now the pipelines for each data source run independently of one another
and then they all go into a common database and then the model which actually
calculates what we call alpha which is when there is that discrepancy between what
the bookmakers are pricing and the actual likelihood of that event then we
calculate the alpha based on the numbers that we've pulled for that given game week
and that produces these supports that you see on my website i'm not willing to give
away this code this code is proprietary this is the model that i've been working
with myself and my business partner a steph calling and this is as much as i'm
willing to show you from the actual code apart from some snippets that you can find
on my tick tock we get the fixtures we get the bookies we get the lineups with the
data for the set players and then we run the model against it and this function
here also generates the reports that get uploaded to the website and the beauty of
the more advanced architecture that we've recently deployed is that we can now run
this for any date we have backfilled this for years of seasons and we can put any
date into this model and we can run it for any given day to assess how well our
betting strategies are doing what this allows us to do in the future is to look at
all of the alphabets that we've generated the bets that we think are not priced
properly compare that to the actual outcome of a given game and then optimize the
model based on those outcomes and this optimization process can be done by a
machine learning algorithm which allows us to optimize our parameters for instance
at the moment we sort of wave our finger in the air and say yeah if a team is
playing at home they are going to score 10 more goals there's not really much
mathematical foundation for that it's just you know what pundits say roughly and if
they're playing away they have a five percent they score five percent less goals so
all of this it will be optimized with machine learning in the future but the
model's not quite there yet it's been two years we're hoping to get that done by
year three and then at which point i'd like to think that these bets are gonna be
some of the best bets out there on the market to be completely completely
transparent there is a link to this google doc on my website and you can find all
of the bets that i've placed for this season because i don't believe in just
posting when i'm winning um i believe in posting when i'm losing as well because
that that's the reality of gambling you're going to win sometimes you're going to
lose some so you can see every bet i've taken so far for the season that i've
written down for instance brentford liverpool game both teams for score i put eight
pounds on that it came in i got 14 pounds 80 pence and then in the performance tab
in the bottom you'll be able to see how i'm doing how i'm stacking up and you can
also see if you check it you know just in time before the game you'll be able to
see exactly which bets i'm taking because i believe that algorithms aren't there to
make decisions for us they're there to help guide our decisions right so i looked
at this and i didn't want to bet on the liverpool manchester city game i thought
that game was too close to cool i didn't i didn't know how that game was going to
come out to be honest but for instance i thought that brentford had a good chance i
thought that crystal palace had a good chance i thought that aston villa had a good
chance didn't go quite to plan now i'm gonna continue to bet every weekend using my
reports it's gonna be running every weekend on an automatic schedule in aws so
these reports going to be on my website for the immediate future the future plan is
to move this off my website this is just sort of my own portfolio and links to
every other things i'm doing but we have plans to build this out into a fully
fledged app so that you can uh track the bets more easily and pick the bets that we
suggest more easily as well so stick around because that should be coming in the
next few months we've got a react developer working on that for us and we're very
excited to share in the future thank you so much for watching i appreciate all the
support that i've had on this project on my other social media channels on my tic
toc you can see more clips of the code and some of my betting that i've been doing
on my instagram you can see when the new reports are live because i post them on my
stories every time they go live i appreciate all the love i appreciate all the
haters as well you guys really fueled me to make this even better so that's exactly
what i'm gonna do see you next time i'm planning to do some videos about my betting
strategy exactly how i pick my bets and what i think are the best bets to choose
i'm going to be doing um some more videos about data engineering in the profession
and how you can get into it because that's ultimately where i learned the skills i
needed to build all of this um and also going to be keeping up with my
cryptocurrency trading bot project as well which is currently deployed deployed and
making some trades to me which were all nice so see you later catch you on the flip
side peace bye bye bye bye bye bye bye

hello and welcome to this tutorial on how to build an Arbitrage bot for football
batting together in this video we will build from scratch a python code that scans
the market for profitable opportunities and calculates the exact amount to place so
that you theoretically guarantee a profit regardless of the match outcome this
video will be structured in three parts we will Begin by briefly presenting
Arbitrage the single most secure way to guarantee a risk-free profit on the sports
betting Market at least in theory in part two we will learn how to access for free
a live ODS feed directly using python with only a few lines of code finally the
third part will be dedicated to programming our bot so that it identifies
profitable bets and calculates the optimal stake for each outcome those who watch
Until the End will get a surprise G gift hit the like button do not forget to
subscribe and leave a comment if you appreciate such a Content now let's get
started first things first what is arbitrage Arbitrage is typically associated with
financial Market but it Finds Its application in the world of football batting it
refers to the practice of capitalizing on price differences of different bookmakers
for the very same game by definition an Arbitrage opportunity provides a risk-free
profit irrespective of the outcome of an event in the context of football betting
an Arbitrage Trader aims to exploit discrepancies in the odds offered by the
different bookmakers for the same match thereby locking in a guaranteed profit now
let's illustrate this concept with a real life example on uh May the 20th 2023 fuam
hosted Crystal powers during match week 37 of the English Premier League as you can
see on the right side of your screen we have opened ODS portal.com on which we have
a compilation of different odds offered by the bookmakers we see that Pinnacle
offered home win odds of 2.44 supera bets offered draw alss of 3.39 and 1X bet
offered a we WI O of 3.56 assuming we had £1,000 to wage across the three outcomes
and had we placed 415s on the home win 299 on the draw and 284 on the away win then
we would have guaranteed a 1.45% return on our 1,000 initial investment now this
would have translated into a net profit of 14.5 regardless of the match outcome the
mathematics behind this method is sound let's illustrate how we calculate the
optimal Stakes first things first let's translate the betting ODS into our Excel
sheet in order to illustrate the logic 3.56 okay so first we need to calculate the
implied probabilities which we will do by taking the inverse of the betting gos so
the implied probability for a home win is 41% the implied probability for a draw
29.5 and for an away win 28.1 next we need to calculate the sum of the implied
probabilities which would be simply the sum of those three lines so whenever we
have a we have a sum of implied probabilities of less than one in such cases that
we have a potential Arbitrage trade how do we calculate the optimal Stakes for such
a game so that we can guarantee an equal and profitable return on all outcomes
regardless of the actual match outcome now in order to illustrate how to calculate
the optimal Stakes for uh for the game at hand I will use um a small excerpt from
the Arbitrage betting automation system which is an online training guide that
helps a firing batters build and automate their Arbitrage trades the formula for
calculating the optimal staking amount is rather simple we uh simply need to
multiply um the amount we're willing to spend that is the total budget that we that
we are willing to spend for the game at hand we need to divide it by the sum of the
implied probabilities which in this case is 98.6 and we simply need to multiply
this by the individual implied uh probability okay let's do this together so let's
assume we have a 1,000 budget so the optimal St for the home win would be our total
budget divided by the sum of the implied probabilities multiplied by the individual
implied probability so in the case h hand we have a 415 8 pounds of optimal stake
okay so let's freeze the cells in order to do this calculation in a more easy way
like this and here is how we calculate the optimal stakes and finally let's verify
that by applying this method we get guarantee an equal an equal and profitable
return on all outcomes okay so what would our net profit be in case of a home whenn
it would be the stake multiplied by the odds and we have to substract the Wagers on
the two other outcomes okay so we have a net profit of 14.5s let's let's do the
same thing assuming the game finished with a draw we multiply the stake by the odds
we substract the other Wagers and again we arrive at the very same net profit and
finally let's do this for the away win and this is exactly the 14.5 pounds of net
profit that we previously found so this is the logic behind the uh classic
Arbitrage model it is rather simple logic it it's mathematically sound and at least
in theory this is the most secure way for you to secure a profit so let's do some
coding let's open our python console uh and uh start with the coding bit for the
purposes of this video I have prepared two codes um we will focus extensively on
the first one which is a rather simple illustration focusing on a single leak
single market so that uh we can illustrate the logic in a quick manner in a step-
by-step manner both of these codes will be available for download simply check the
description below the video the second code will include 45 football leagues and
will be an advanced version of what we will cover in this video first things first
uh we start by importing free Wes uh the requests w Library will help us make HTTP
requests to connect to our API o provider the Json Library we will use simply for
reading the response from our ODS provider and the pandas fi of course we will need
to do our data cleaning and data wrangling the first step in our code will be to
create an API key now in order to do so you will need to go to the website of the
odds API you can use the link in the description below the video you need to go to
their website and um actually create or get an API key they do offer free trials
process of creating your API key literally takes less than 10 seconds uh you simply
need to click on start or get your API you need to put a name your email click
subscribe and and you will have your API code in your email and uh you will simply
need to copy it to your python code as I have done here and you will be ready to go
okay so once we have covered the API key the second thing that we will need to
Define is the region what this means is actually um here we select the region
covered by the bookmakers uh by our odds provider so as you can see on their
website uh they offer us bookmakers UK European and Australian bookmakers for the
purposes of this tutorial we will focus on European and UK bookmakers um next we
need to define the market um by H to H this means head-to-head or money line on in
or in simple terms the full-time result market so for the purposes of this video we
will focus solely on this Market of course there are multiple other markets and you
will need to uh take a look at their website and um learn more about other uh
different markets for different sports once again for the purposes of this video we
focus only on football or soccer and on the uh full-time result Market the final
parameter parameter that we will Define is the actual league so the sport key uh we
have uh the the reference to the English Premier League is simply soccerl the odds
API covers more than 45 football leagues and 00 leagues in total of course
comprising other sports such as baseball tennis basketball and all of the most
popular sports you can imagine okay let's go and uh get started by making our first
uh request in order to do so uh we need to Define uh the URL which will have the
following form um API the Ys API in the curly brackets here we will put the
football league we need the ODS in the place of the API key we will put our API key
regions we will put the bookmaker regions we have defined of course separated by
comma in and in the markets we will put the selected markets once again if we have
selected multiple markets we have we can add them by simply using comma finding the
proper parameter or the proper name and adding it in the code okay so one the Euro
once the euro is defined we will simply need to call it by using by by doing a get
request we have our response and we will vot the results or rather transform the
results using the Json library and this is how the response will look like we have
a list of uh 20 dictionaries so um 20 dictionaries this is actually 20 nested
dictionaries uh as you can imagine uh there will be we will be downloading a lots
of data for a single game that is for one game uh we would be interested in the
odds by multiple bookmakers for multiple outcomes so let's open one in order to
illustrate what the what each dictionary will contain so at the time of recording
this video which is the 15th of November uh the first game that we have collected
is the game between Manchester City and Liverpool which will be played on the 25th
of November so we have the home team the away team the individual uh ID for the
game name the sports key the sports title and we have uh the thing that interests
us the most is a list of dictionaries for each individual bookmaker available in
our selection so as you can see B click bodyy Powers sport 888 mybookie 1X bet
super BS etc etc within each dictionary you will find the time of the last update
of the odds and the odds for the actual markets that we have selected for example
for the head-to-head market for Liverpool the bookmaker that we selected which was
bad click the price was 4.5 for a Manchester City win 1.61 and for a draw 4.18 as
you can see we cannot work with uh a data in
such a format even though it is rather clean in order to analyze it and to program
our bot we need to transform it into a data frame that is easily manageable and
this is exactly what the next couple of lines will do even though if you're are a
complete beginner the next couple of lines may seem more complicated than they
actually are essentially we are opening each dictionary each nested diction and
extracting the information that we're interested in and we are reordering it into a
pandas data frame that we can more easily manage once more first we Define an empty
list and then we create four Loops essentially what this what this bit of code does
we go through each elements of odds data so we select the first one then we look
for the element that that contains the key bookmakers we open it we go and look for
the element containing markets here are markets we go through each element that
contains the name outcomes outcomes and we start extracting the relevant data let
me reorder those because we don't see the code here are the the outcomes this was
the very last element so essentially we are saying of course we go through each of
those elements and we are saying the outcome price would be price the outcome name
would be this name and we go through all three of those in a similar manner we
interested in the last update of the ODS let me close those we're interested in the
last update of the ODS Market key bookmaker title key starting time home team away
team etc etc so this code does nothing nothing complicated it simply extracts
relevant data that is more easily manageable finally essentially we're extracting
the elements we're creating actually a dictionary that we append in this empty
container that we created and at the very end we are creating a pandas pandas data
frame and this is how our data looks like let me resize it so that it is more clean
this is what we have for a single bookmaker we have uh the game ID so which is
unique for each game the sport key which is uh the English Premier League the name
of the or more the abbreviation home team away team starting game bookmaker in
terms of key and it more proper title the last update of the odds of the of the
bookmaker this is the time of the last update of the odds um the market key so
full-time results head-to-head uh the market last update which is the last update
of the odds provider the outcome name and the outcome price which means that
according to bet click bet click offered the price of four 4.5 for a Liverpool win
1.61 for a Manchester City win and 4.18 for a draw as you can see for the game for
Manchester City and Liverpool we have a lot of bookmakers we have B click body
power etc etc etc now before we go to the actual analysis we will have to clean a
bit these data frames since this is not the first time that I've been working with
such types of data I know that um I would be interested for for the purposes of
this video and for this Arbitrage model only in sports books meaning that laying a
game is not of interest to us so we will uh actually I think in the next step we
will drop uh the betting exchanges from our database but for now the important
thing is we have a clean set of data that we can analyze yes so the first step
would be simply to exclude the betting exchanges from uh the the scope of the
analysis and um at this point in time um the ODS API works with bfare and matchbook
and um meaning that there are no other betting exchanges in our in the scope of our
study okay so next thing as a reminder what did we have on the SP on the odds API
page so essentially for each game we're interested in the highest or the longest
odds for each outcome meaning in the case of fum and Crystal Powers we had a lot of
odds and we were interested only on Pinnacle or in the case of hand actually bet in
Asia actually offered the same the the the the highest odds so essentially what we
need to do with our database is to do exactly the same that is for each individual
game and for each outcome name that is home wi away win draw we want to know what
is the highest price this is what what we will be doing in this line essentially
we're taking the the indexes of the highest outcome price grouped by game ID and
outcome name the next line simply creates a new database only filtering on those
same indexes that we just created that is filtering on the indexes containing the
highest odds for each game and outcome name and here is our new database for now we
haven't decided if all the games offer an arbitr opportunity we have simply kept
for each individual game only three observations that is sometimes for the
Tottenham Aston VI game we can have a same bookmaker appearing twice but in most
cases we will have different bookmakers that appear for the three outcomes now the
next step would be to calculate uh as as a reminder to calculate the implied
probabilities for each outcome as we did in our Excel example which is simply
taking the inverse of the outcome price there we have it we have um we have implied
probabilities here next we need to create the sum of those implied probabilities
once again as a reminder simple sum we need we need this parameter we check that
everything is in order okay so we have the sum of Applied probabilities and as you
remember from our EXO example a game offers an Arbitrage possibility if the sum of
the implied probability is less than one so we see that for the Nottingham Brighton
game there is a slight but still an arbitr opportunity uh even uh but for the
Tottenham ASV case the sum of impl probabilities is higher than one so this should
not be a um an Arbitrage uh opportunity so what we will do next is to focus only on
those games that uh present an arbitr opportunity so essentially we're keeping
everything that is low than that is lower than one and we are left with 24
observations which is essentially Eight Games by simply looking uh at the sum of
implied probabilities we see that the Burnley chef United uh offers the highest uh
potential rate of return we have a 0.98 which means lower than 2% potential rate of
return so um actually not a bad uh this is not a bad trade okay so this is our data
Let's uh finally proceed to calculating the optimal staking amount let's assume
that our stake is 1,000 and we would like to calculate the stake how do we do that
by following the formula that we presented right here which is the total stake
divided by the sum of implied probabilities and multiplied by the individual
implied probability and finally we just simply add the rate of return and as I just
mentioned we will have potential the Sheffield the burnly Sheffield United game
which will have the highest rate of return so this is how we create our database of
profitable opportunities if those rate of returns are too low for you what uh we
can also do is simply change the filter here and essentially keep games whose rate
of return is higher than 1% sent okay let's redo this and we as we previously saw
we only have one game in such case however with the rather respectable for an
Arbitrage trade 1.4% rate of return okay so this was how we created our clean
database with uh theoretically profitable Arbitrage trades that you can actually go
and uh test your yourself I hope you follow closely and uh understood the the the
steps uh in this code if you're a complete beginner um you might find some some
bits of the code um difficult to follow even though this is a rather simple code
once you grasp this you would be interested in actually automating the summary of
those games of those profitable trades as I said in the beginning of this video you
may download this code following the link in the description below this video
however if you're interested in a more advanced version of this code that automates
the notification system you may check out the second code which once more is is a
more advanced version um now I won't go uh in detail over this code or you can
comment below if you do want me to cover such content or to go over this code in
detail however I will simply illustrate what it does this code as well is available
uh for a free download now what this code will do is simply uh we simply go through
45 football leagues and not not simply one league and it will also go it will also
offer uh also make use of a messaging function that summarizes the profitable
trades okay let's run the code in order for you to illustrate what it does now I
will run it until here essentially it will go over all all of those 45 leaks and it
will uh summarize the profitable trades and there we have it essentially and uh it
will not stop now I will stop it and I will go back and this is the this is how a
um how our summary uh message looks like uh for the Burnley Sheffield United game
of the English Premier League which will be played on December the 2nd this game
presents an Arbitrage opportunity uh we need to place home wi bet with 1X bet draw
bet with 1X bet and an away win bet with super bets at those prices the optimal
Stakes are calculated here and the potential rate of return on all outcomes is
0.47% as you can see we have a whole collection from all other leagues we have a
representation from the UEFA Champions League we have a well rather low 0.32% rate
of return we have Bundesliga we have uh La Liga we have Syria and the different of
course uh rates of return once again if you download this code you can modify you
can create a filter of selecting potentially only games with rate of return higher
than one or higher than two it would be up to you both of these codes are part of
the Arbitrage betting automation system if you're interested in actually in
Arbitrage or in getting started with coding for betting uh you will find this um
system useful now what what this guide does uh in a nutshell is we Define arbitrage
extensively uh however we don't just introduce
you to the theory we present you the different intricacies that arbitra has the
common challenges we the common myths and we give you strategies to sidestep uh
bookmaker restrictions since the reality is that bookmakers do not like Arbitrage
betters and they do their best to restrict them now there are couple of strategies
that allow you to S step those restrictions and we talk about those in our guide
the second major thing that uh this guide provides is it will teach you how to
create a an an automattic notification system in a similar way that we presented in
this second more advanced code with the um so difference that we will you will
learn how to build a notification system that messages you through telegram
instantly that is you will not simply have the result uh in your python console but
you will have it uh on your phone if you're on the go for example third major thing
would would be that we presented a detailed analysis of um 12 leagues over the
course of three seasons over the course of two minute intervals so three seasons 12
leaks at 2 minute intervals we analyzed uh such an extensive data set and we came
to the conclusion that theoretically you can get to 1,000 pounds of net profit per
month from a single trade budget of one pound of 100 pound per trade as a reminder
in the simulation that we just presented we assumed a total stake of 1,000 however
uh we present historical data that you can achieve this amount of net profit from a
10 times less single trade budget and finally we uh present a way that you can
deploy your python code and python bot on a cloud-based service so that your code
run runs when you are away from your computer basically so you don't have to have
uh your computer running uh all the time in order for your Bot to be running so
essentially we provide python templates it is nolu just python code that works do
not hesitate to check out the the description there is a 4,000 page overview of
what the product covers essentially it covers the classic carit Rush model that we
developed in this video and also what is called a back tolay model uh which offers
opportunities to S side step uh in a more um easy way uh the bookmakers now thank
you for staying until the end here is the gift for you if you're interested in uh
purchasing this guide you may use a promotion code which is YouTube 30 it is a 30%
discount on the price of this training if you're interested in Arbitrage coding
getting started with getting started with python for betting do not hesitate to
check out this product and uh also do not forget to to download um these two codes
uh by using the link in the description below and if you like such content simply
like the video comment which parts you enjoyed the most comment uh what you would
like to see next um as I plan to develop more this channel I'm looking for feedback
on what material to cover so really do not hesitate to share your comments and uh I
hope you enjoyed the video see you in the next one

Why averages can skew betting predictions

- What is mean, mode and median?
- What are outliers and how to deal with them in betting
article mean median mode xl
Betting Strategy
Dominic Cortis
November 20, 2014
Mean, mode and median crucial concepts for betting
The 'average' problem for bettors
Because of its simplicity many sports bettors use the average to quantify a
performance statistically. But how many are aware of its limitations?

For instance, when betting on the Total goals market for a soccer game, bettors may
believe that by calculating the average number of goals scored over previous games,
it provides an accurate gauge of the number of goals expected in a future match.
But is this average measure really appropriate?

Although the average gives an overall picture, it doesn’t account for the shape of
the distribution

As an example lets look at the number of goals scored in the Premier League
compared to La Liga in the 2013/14 season. The average goals scored per game for
each league is 2.77 and 2.75 respectively. This may lead bettors to assume that La
Liga games scoring less than 2.5 goals is more frequent than in the EPL.
Nevertheless, this is not the case - 48.4% of EPL games go under 2.5 goals compared
to 47.3% in La Liga.

By looking at the figure below, it is evident that while the distribution of

numbers is similar, the most frequent number of goals scored in the Premier League
is two goals per game, compared to three in La Liga. The average masks this fact.

So why is this? Although the average gives an overall picture, it doesn’t account
for the shape of the distribution.

Another example of the dangers of average measures is using them to assess

handicaps for International soccer minnow nations, who are considered the 'whipping
boys' for each qualification campaign. But are they really as bad as they appear?
While averaging a nations goal per game total could result in big numbers, this sum
may have been severely skewed by less frequent but heavy defeats, and as a result,
lead bettors to potentially overvaluing the number of goals they expect to see.

Below we investigate alternatives to the average – mode and median – and use three
sets of numbers to highlight two scenarios in which the average may not be
adequate.
Consider the following sets of numbers, each of which have an average of five.

Set A: 4, 5, 5, 5, 6
Set B: 3, 4, 4, 4, 10
Set C: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
First Scenario: Having outliers on the higher/lower end
Although the three sets have the same average and all add up to 25, their
distribution is quite different.

Set A can be classed as symmetrically distributed - there is one number on each end
of the average, since 4 is below and 6 is above the average.

The average or mean is ideal to use when faced with a symmetric distribution - a
situation where the values of variables occur at similar frequencies on both ends
of the average, and the average lies in the middle of the set of values.

In contrast set B has four numbers below the average, and only one above. This can
be described as a skewed distribution.

By understanding the limitations of the average bettors should be better placed to

judge its suitability as a measure for prediction

When using a large data set, bettors can test the suitability of the average by
using other measures such as the median or mode.

The median is the value that lies in the middle of a distribution when arranged in
ascending or descending order. In sets A and B, this is five and four respectively.
The mode is the most popular value, which is also five and four respectively.

A symmetric distribution should have a similar arithmetic mean, median and mode.
The difference between the latter two and the arithmetic mean in set B indicates
that this is a skewed distribution and therefore the average is not an ideal
measure.

Second Scenario: Different Spread

Two sets may both be symmetrically distributed but not equally spread. For example,
just like set A, set C is also symmetrically distributed because it has equal
numbers below and above the average; and the difference from the mean is similar on
both ends.

Yet while both are adequately summarized by an average of five, this average is a
better measure for set A since more numbers are closer to the arithmetic mean. The
difference between the two sets lay in the dispersion within the group. We
therefore need to measure the dispersion.

To do this, bettors can calculate the range and the standard deviation. The range -
the difference between the maximum and the minimum value - is easy to compute. On
the other hand standard deviation is more complicated. In basic terms, and for the
relevance of this article, it measures the variation in a set of data from the
average. Please note we will be writing an article looking into distributions in
greater detail, and we will explain standard deviation in greater detail there -
this article is available here
.

Sets A and C have ranges of two and four respectively while their standard
deviation is 0.71 and 1.58 respectively. As both measures are bigger for set C, we
have further indication that there is more difference within the latter group.

Conclusion
By understanding the limitations of the average - skewed distributions and
differing measures of dispersion - bettors should be better placed to judge its
suitability as a measure for prediction. Albeit not a thorough investigation into
the adequacy of using the average, this should be enough to advise caution and
consider other measures.

Dominic Cortis is a lecturer with the Department of Mathematics at The University

of Leicester; and an assistant lecturer at The University of Malta. He is an
associate actuary and his research focuses on sports analytics as well as financial
and betting derivatives.

it's Theory Thursdays I'm Jordan Cooper AKA blender Ed blender HD GNA follow me on
Twitter and I want to go over one of the biggest mistakes I see people make when
they bet on props right you see this prop screen up here right we got all the NBA
props here we got the Raptors we got the Pacers uh we got all the point totals
yakob purle over under 11 and a half Pascal cakam over under 21 and a half people
go out they make these prop bets they use projections which I would recommend at
Roto Grinders they'll download these right people look at projections they look at
DFS related projections I come from the DFS space played daily fantasy for almost
nine years now and uh I I use projections I I could build my own models I love the
ones over at Roto Grinders and they will give you their projections so you'll see
here that you know here's some point projections here's some block projections some
rebounds all the statistical categories but the number one mistake that people make
when using projections is not realizing the difference between mean and medians I
know I'm using some mathematical terms I promise you no fancy math in this video
understanding a very simple statistical concept will make your prop experience a
lot more profitable especially if you've been betting a lot of overs seems like it
seems everyone loves the overs right everyone loves seeing something happen right
right you don't like rooting against scoring especially when you're watching the
game but we see often in prop betting when people use mean projections they tend to
think they have more of an edge on the overs now why is that why is that we look
here we see Dennis shodair right right is his M projection right here for points is
11.56 so you go okay that's that's the mean projection that's you know that his
average 11.56 and then you see a line that's eight and a half right you go oh 11
and a half is higher than eight and a half I'm going to bet the over if this is a
frequent occurrence to you when you're using player projections from DFS in order
to bet on props pay attention to this video and this comes from the fact that these
are mean projections mean median mode I want to I don't want to be like your your
high school math teacher be like uh oh we got to learn these things people thought
people thought back in the day right you must have thought why are we learning all
these math stuff well we don't need to use math in real life when am I ever going
to use statistics right unless you're becoming an engineer or a computer programmer
mean median mode what what is the use well if you're a better you better you better
[ __ ] know you better [ __ ] know what mean median and moan means because these
are mean projections they're the average they're not the median what's the
difference what's the difference between mean median and mode mean is the average
median is the midpoint and mode is the most frequent so this doesn't mean right
this doesn't mean that Dennis rodair scores 11 points most of the time right that
would be what mode is right it doesn't even mean that half the time he scores under
11 and half the time he scores over 11 that's what median would mean this is the
average that if you add it up all of his point outcomes right and then you average
it all out it would be 11 11-ish 11.5 okay why is this not the proper assessment
when you bet on props well this comes down to distributions okay A lot of times
people real uh they they think in distributions of a normal distribution okay now
we get some fancy math here I'm sorry right a normal distribution there's no skew
right which means the mean the median the mode are exactly the same right so in
this in this simulated game we're going to simulate all the games like Kevin Durant
scoring points right so we simulate it all out right this is what we do in in
models like you'd find on rotor Grinders so there's some games where doesn't do
very well the game blows out or something he scores 12 points right very low
there's some games where he takes over 54 points right there's some games where he
scores a little underneath he's normal 18 sometimes he scores a little bit more 34
so you go all over and over and over again you simulate this out over and over and
over again and then you get that mean projection for DFS purposes now in DFS if
you're playing on draft games you're playing on FanDuel Yahoo wherever we care
about Med we care about means right more than medians why because the more points
that we score right the more points our lineups get the better the better we move
up on the payout scale if Kevin Durant goes out and scores 60 F 60 real life points
know we we get more in our lineups but in sports betting that's not the way it
works we look on the we look on the odd screen right we go over here it's like y
purle 11 and a half like if he goes out and scores 50 points do we do we get paid
anymore no we don't right if we bet on the over 11 and a half and he scores 50
we're still getting paid minus 112 right here like it says on the screen right if
we bet the under 11 and a half at minus 108 and he goes out and he horrible he
scores one basket two points do we get paid anymore on the under than if he scored
10 just under no that's what the mean if if the mean mattered if we got paid more
than that but this is this is a binary outcome does he go over 11 and a half does
it go under 11 half so we care about the medians okay and players in the NBA and in
most sports actually we'll find in most statistical categories obviously we could
go into the Nuance of of different different sports and different stats but in many
situations that you're betting on NFL NBA a right a lot of counting stats that the
distributions aren't normal they're actually positively skewed right posi the means
are positively skewed we'll take a look here at a at an example so let's say this
is the player's points right let's say this is his distribution right so he has you
know just basic 12 16 20 20 24 24 24 26 26 28 28 32 32 40 44 48 52 right you rarely
score zero right you rarely see you know Kevin Durant going out and scoring zero
points right bad game will score 12 but sometimes it'll take over score 52 right so
we take a look and we have like 17 outcomes here now obviously in a projection you
know that simulating you know tens of thousands of outcomes but here's a little
subset okay so there's 17 outcomes here right what's the midpoint the midpoint is
where Eight's on one side and Eight's on the other side so that's 26 right here
right in the middle okay what's the mode the mode is 24 because he scored three out
of these times these are you know once here twice there so most often three out of
17 times he scores 24 so that's the most often right the midpoint is 26 but if you
average these all out the average the mean is 29.8 right because he has a lot of
more outlier outcomes right 52 44 40 38 but he doesn't really have many zeros and
twos and fours right if he did his distribution would look more normal right you'd
see here his 60p point games would be averaged out by his two and four-point games
he just doesn't have many two or fourpoint games his outcomes look more positively
skewed right not many zeros not many twos not many threes and then once we start
getting into the teens 12 14 18 they're they're still below average but we're
getting a lot more of those a lot more of those and it gets up to you know 20ish
right and then we start getting a lot more 20s 19 20 22 22 22 23 right we keep on
going and then he has sometimes he has you know 30 point games 32 point games 35
Point games 38 point games and you can see here along the curve which will skew the
mean positive which means if you average it all out we see here just like in this
little subset that is mean will be higher than his median now in DFS if you're
playing on DraftKings you're playing NBA 100K to first right you're building your
your eight player lineup and you get more points if he scores you know 100 fantasy
points right that's going to matter in DFS but in prop ping it doesn't whether it
scores 100 or it's just scores just above his his 26 and a half over that's all
that matters you're getting paid the same amount so you don't care as much about
the mean you care about the median okay so the number one mistake that a lot of
people make is that they'll go they'll look at projections they'll look at mean
projections and then Compare the numbers to that right so they'll go on their odd
screen they'll take a look right they'll take a look across books they'll go on
fans they'll go on DraftKings I hope you're not doing this right and look and go
okay yakob purle is uh you know his his mean projection and the Roto Grinders
projections have him at uh 13 tyres halberton is 24 and a half and Miles Turner is
19 and you'll you'll see that how come all these numbers tend to be over tend to be
over by just a little bit a lot of times right you'll see you know Scotty Barnes
over 20 and a half his projection will be 23.4 and propensity is well I mean if if
that's if that's the average outcome shouldn't I be betting assuming that you know
I'm getting paid I'm getting paid you know minus 110 or something I'm I'm going to
bet the over yeah but not all the outcomes are the over it's skewed positively
which means the median half the outcomes are actually at a lower number than that
so even if you're just eyeballing right Point projections in NBA understand that
when you have a mean here that the meeting will be lower than it how much lower
well on average you know maybe 10 15% lower maybe 20% every player has its own
distribution and there are ways converting it a mean to median a rough a rough way
of doing so you could do so somewhat with a poison distribution depending on uh the
the stat that you're looking at as well as simulating you know simulating play-by-
play Sims
stuff like that that's uh beyond the scope of this video we may explain this in a
in a in a later time but if you're just eyeballing it remember I want to I want to
keep the fancy math out of here right right I don't think this is that fancy right
showing these little distribution curves right I wanted this to be as advanced as
it get just to understand the concept that you're looking at so if you were just to
eyeball these these Point projections if you were to see uh a point projection
let's say Dennis rodair you have is 11.56 and his over under on points is six and a
half it's like at minus 110 let's just just say minus 105 minus 110 somewhere in
that range at that Point there's probably enough cushion right we take a look at
the positively skewed distribution of points that if his mean is 11 and a half his
median is probably eight eight and a half a somewhere around there right so if the
over under is 6 and a half at minus 110 or so right it's probably positive expected
value for you to bet on the over at that point but if it's projection was 11 and
1/2 and the Mony right in NBA the guys that have you know eight minutes of playing
time much higher variance but in general if you were to eyeball and use DFS
projections either ones that you make yourself or at sites like Roto Grinders and
you're going to try to use them to bet on player props understanding that their
means not medians will prevent so many B mistakes that you'll make that betting on
player props and you you should know this if you're watching this video right now
that you know you've been betting player props for a couple of months taking a lot
of overs 90% of your bets 95% of your bets are overs that's probably the the
mistake that you're making it's probably the mistake that you're making if you're
betting that many times on overs especially the closer and closer that you get to
game time the more efficient that the market if you want to call it an efficient
market the closer the numbers more likely to be be be accurate uh that's probably
the mistake that you're making understanding the difference between a normal
distribution and a skewed distribution and there are some negatively skewed
distributions depending on the sport and the statistic but many of them yardage
receptions any type of you know yardage have weird a little bit little bit weirder
distributions in uh in NFL think think of I mean a perfect example in NFL think of
the difference between a player like Tyreek Hill and a player like let's say juand
Del Robinson right I don't want to date these videos I guess but you have one guy
that's you know catches 70 yard bombs or could catch a 10 yard pass and then just
run 70 yards right his his average depth of Target his his average play on a
reception is much higher right much more likely to have an 80 yard catch someone
like ju Del Robinson kind of a you know three yard possession Receiver right he's
he's the type of guy have eight catches for 30 yards right right something like
that oh he catches the ball all the time but it's four yards and he you know drops
to the ground right Zack hers someone like that okay so the guy that like Tyreek
Hill is has a much more positively skewed distribution because this mean is being
prop up by a lot of his 150 and 180 and 200 yard games when a lot of times he has
70 yards 60 yards 80 yards something like that right which makes his mean
projection if you were playing DFS and looking at DFS projections his mean
projection could be like 94 and then you look on uh you look on your your your your
favorite sports book or you look across on your odd screen and his prop numbers
like 74 right your player projection has it for like 94 96 100 and it's like wow 74
that seems low and you bet on his over not realizing that his median is probably
around 70 to 75 anyway right just that the average has a lot of those 200 yard
games and it's not made up for by games where he has no yards 10 yards he doesn't
have many of those then you take a look at someone like w Del Robinson that
possession Receiver right doesn't have doesn't have almost none 200 yard games
right almost none but has a lot of like 15 yard games and 25 yard games right he
goes four for 18 right like something like that that's the type of player that may
actually have a negatively skewed distribution right that type of play that extreme
of an example where his mean is being boyed by his low results and the meeting is
actually higher right he has a lot of three three for 18 four for 20 right stuff
like that but when he gets eight catches a lot of times he he has 45 yards 50 yards
right he has a lot more outcomes like that even though he doesn't have many 100
yard 150 yard ones so it's quite possible in that scenario you may see a prop for
wand Del Robinson right you may see a prop and his prop line may be 36 and a half
right and you'll see your your mean projection is uh you know is is is is is
actually higher higher than it right you'll see that and then you'll you'll say
well I'm I'm I'm taking the under I'm taking the under I'm taking the under I'm
taking the under not realizing that you're looking at a mean projection right his
mean projection maybe 30 it's median maybe 36 so you see that 36 and a half and you
go well my mean says 30 I'm going to bit under well that's a negatively skewed
distribution these are I'm showing you very extreme cases of it but understanding
that the the DFS projections you're looking at are not normal distributions right
they some may be closer to normal right then they may not be significantly
positively skewed like Tyreek Hill or significantly negatively skewed like juand
Del Robin son but the main concept is that mean meting and mode don't all mean the
same thing they don't right in DFS you care about means in prop betting you care
about medians when at least when you're betting on the on the main lines you're not
betting on Alternate lines or anything you know over a million or under whatever
right you're betting on the main Market props so if there's one thing I could teach
you when using DFS projections is at least eyeballing it in a way where you know
that for most counting stats the mean is going to tend to be higher than the median
which means if you're going to bet overs and you're just eyeballing it you need a
lot more cushion between what the number is on the sports book and what the number
is in your project ection model right and there are a lot of times you'll see this
I I get I get to ask this a lot especially in NFL or you'll see an NFL like a
rushing a rushing prop and the rushing prop will be 60 and a half or something
right and the projection right will be like 62 right you'll see the DFS mean
projection of 62 and a lower amount of rushing attempt and then you'll when you
calculate that which you could do with unabated obviously they have a way of
converting mean projections into medians depending on the stat category so sign up
at unabated domcom and uh you could upload these projections and have them do it
for you but you often will see that oh the projection says 62 the line is 16 and a
half and it's saying that there's an 8% Edge on the under so but the number is
higher the projection is higher than that yeah because it is a positively skewed
distribution it's taking the bet on the under because the median based on that
distribution the mean may be 62 and a half but the median may be 54 and a half it's
a positively sced distribution so if you have any questions about this basic
statistical Concepts right understanding the theory of sports betting which is just
a lot of simple High School ma High School level math look I didn't have to do any
computer programming here I didn't even have to convert stuff I don't have to do
any fancy formulas we do have tools for that that's why I say to go to unabated
that will help you a little bit more but just not making the big mistakes a lot of
times in your sports betting Journey cutting out your biggest mistakes will improve
your bottom line more more than you know finding the the smallest and smallest of
edges so don't make this mistake when you use DFS projections to bet on props and
hit that like button on your way out the door hit the Subscribe button if you want
want more videos like this go to my channel be posting a lot of these in the coming
weeks and uh see you out there on your sports betting Journey