Module 6
Module 6
LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION
In the process of energy management, at some stage, investment would be required for reducing
the energy consumption of a process or utility. Investment would be required for
modifications/retrofitting and for incorporating new technology. It would be prudent to adopt a
systematic approach for merit rating of the different investment options vis-à-vis the anticipated
savings.
It is essential to identify the benefits of the proposed measure with reference to not only energy
savings but also other associated benefits such as increased productivity, improved product quality
etc.
The cost involved in the proposed measure should be captured in totality by.
Based on the above, the energy economics can be carried out by the energy management team.
Energy manager has to identify how cost savings arising from energy management could be
redeployed within his organization to the maximum effect. To do this, he has to work out how
benefits of increased energy efficiency can be best sold to top management as,
include cash activities related to net income. For example, cash generated
from the sale of goods (revenue) and cash paid for merchandise (expense) are operating activities
because revenues and expenses are included in net income.
For example, cash generated from the sale of land and cash paid for an investment in another
company are included in this category. (Note that interest received from loans is included in
operating activities.)
Financing activities include cash activities related to noncurrent liabilities and owners’ equity.
Noncurrent liabilities and owners’ equity items include
For example, if money can be deposited in the bank at 10% interest, then a Rs.100 deposit will be
worth Rs.110 in one year's time. Thus the Rs.110 in one year is a future value equivalent to the
Rs.100 present value.
In the same manner, Rs.100 received one year from now is only worth Rs.90.91 in today's money
(i.e. Rs.90.91 plus 10% interest equals Rs.100). Thus Rs.90.91 represents the present value of
Rs.100 cash flow occurring one year in the future. If the interest rate were something different than
Where
FV = Future value of the cash flow
NPV = Net Present Value of the cash flow
i = Interest or discount rate
n = Number of years in the future
Evaluation of Proposals
Following four methods are usually used for the evaluation of capital investment proposals:
1. The average rate of return method.
2. The payback period method (also known as cash payback period method).
3. The net present value method.
4. The internal rate of return method.
Method 1 and 2 are the methods that do not use the present values. Method 3 and 4 use the present
values. So these methods for the evaluation of capital investment can be grouped into two
categories:
Methods that do not use the present value (average rate of return method and payback method) are
easy to use. Management uses these methods initially to screen proposals. If a proposal meets the
minimum standards set by management, it is subject to further analysis otherwise it is dropped
from further consideration.
Methods that use present values (net present value method and internal rate of return method) in
the capital investment analysis take into account the time value of money. The concept is that the
money has value over time because it can be invested to earn interest income. A dollar in hand
today is more valuable than a dollar to be received a year from today.
If we invest Rs 5,000 today to earn a 10% interest per year, we will have Rs 5,500 after one year.
Thus Rs 5,000 is the present value of Rs 5,500 to be received a year from today if the rate of
interest is 10%.
Example 2
Solution
The payback period ignores the time value of money (TVM), unlike other methods of capital
budgeting such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and discounted cash flow.
The formula to calculate payback period of a project depends on whether the cash flow per period
from the project is even or uneven. In case they are even, the formula to calculate payback period
is:
Initial investment
Payback Period =
Cash inflow per period or Annual net cost savings
Payback period=initial investment / Annual Cash flow = $105 M / $25 M = 4.2 Years
Project X costs $21 000 and will return a net cash inflow of $5 000 per period. What will the
payback period be for this project?
Payback period=initial investment / Annual Cash flow = $21000/ $5000 = 4.2 Years
When cash inflows are uneven, we need to calculate the cumulative net cash flow for each period
and then find payback period.
Therefore, we know that it will take at least 4 years to pay the project back as the cumulative net
cash inflow up to year 4 is $19 000.
That leaves us to calculate how many months it will take to get the extra $2000 from the $9 000 in
Year 5.
9,000/12 = $750 per month. Thus it will take 3 months to reach $2 000. ie: $750 x 3 = $2 250 (OR
$2000 / $750 = 2.666 months)
There are times when a business will look at implementing some new machinery in order to save
costs and they have to decide whether it’s worthwhile investing in it. There normally is a time
period associated with these types of investment.
• Example: Raju is looking to get a new piece of machinery that will replace 5 workers who
currently do the packing manually on the conveyer belt. The workers are each paid $40,000
a year and the new machinery costs $850,000. Raju has a rule that says the payback period
must be 5 years of less.
Solution
• The payback period will be 4.25 years and thus would be accepted as it fits within the 5 year
pattern.
There are times when a business will look at implementing some new machinery in order to save
costs but will also have an impact on their overall cash flows as well. There is normally a time
period associated with these types of investment.
• Example: Raju is looking to get a new piece of machinery that will replace 5 workers who
currently do the packing manually on the conveyer belt. The workers are each paid $40,000
a year and the new machinery costs $850,000. The business will have to pay additional
insurance costs of $20,000 per year and repair and maintenance costs of $30,000. Raju has a
rule that says the payback period must be 5 years of less.
• The payback period will be 5.66 years & thus would NOT be accepted as it fits within the 5
year criteria.
Advantages
A widely used investment criterion, the payback period seems to offer the following advantages:
• It is simple, both in concept and application. Obviously a shorter payback generally indicates
a more attractive investment. It does not use tedious calculations.
• It favours projects, which generate substantial cash inflows in earlier years, and
discriminates against projects, which bring substantial cash inflows in later years but not in
earlier years.
Limitations
• It fails to consider the time value of money
• It ignores cash flows beyond the payback period.
• Does not consider profitability of economic life of project,
• Does not reflect all the relevant dimensions of profitability.
It considers the earnings of the project of the economic life. This method is based on conventional
accounting concepts. The rate of return is expressed as percentage of the earnings of the investment
in a particular project. This method has been introduced to overcome the disadvantage of pay back
period. The profits under this method is calculated as profit after depreciation and tax of the entire
life of the project. The ARR method calculates the annual percentage return an investment provides
for a business. Investment options can be compared using this method, with the investment
returning the highest ARR chosen.
The project with the higher rate of return than the minimum rate specified by the firm also known
as cut off rate, is accepted and the other which gives a lower expected rate of return than the
minimum rate is rejected.
Accept or Reject Criterion: Under the method, all project, having Accounting Rate of return higher
than the minimum rate establishment by management will be considered and those having ARR
less than the pre-determined rate will be rejected. This method ranks a Project as number one, if it
has highest ARR, and lowest rank is assigned to the project with the lowest ARR.
Merits
Demerits
This method is small variation of the average rate of return method. In this method the total profit
after tax and depreciation is divided by the total investment, i.e.,
In this method the return on average investment is calculated. Using of average investment for the
purpose of return on investment is preferred because the original investment is recovered over the
life of the asset on account of depreciation charges.
This is the most appropriate method of rate of return on investment. Under this method, average
profit after depreciation and taxes is divided by the average amount of investment; thus:
The ARR method calculates the average annual percentage return an investment provides for a
business. Investment options can be compared using this method, with the investment returning the
highest ARR chosen. For example, if the ARR for Project A was 15% and for Project B was 20%,
then Project B would be chosen because the ARR percentage is higher than Project A.
• Divide the net profit generated by an investment by the number of years the project is
expected to last (this is the average annual return)
• Divide the average annual return (your answer to 1.) by the initial outlay / cost of investment
Under this method average profit after tax and depreciation is calculated and then it is divided by
the total capital outlay or total investment in the project. In other words, it establishes the
relationship between average annual profits to total investments.
The payback method does not consider savings that are accrued after the payback period has
finished.
The payback method does not consider the fact that money, which is invested, should accrue
interest as time passes. In simple terms there is a 'time value' component to cash flows. Thus
Rs.1000 today is more valuable than Rs.1000 in 10 years' time.
DANY VARGHESE EMA Module 6 Page 10
In order to overcome these weaknesses a number of discounted cash flow techniques have been
developed, which are based on the fact that money invested in a bank will accrue annual interest.
The two most commonly used techniques are the 'net present value' and the 'internal rate of return'
methods.
The net present value method considers the fact that a cash saving (often referred to 'cash flow') of
Rs.1000 in year 1 of a project will be worth less than a cash flow of Rs.1000 in year 2. The net
present value method achieves this by quantifying the impact of time on any particular future cash
flow. This is done by equating each future cash flow to its current value today, in other words
determining the present value of any future cash flow. The present value (PV) is determined by
using an assumed interest rate, usually referred to as a discount rate.
Discounting is the opposite process to compounding. Compounding determines the future value of
present cash flows, where" discounting determines the present value of future cash flows. If a
company invested Rs.22, 20,000 in a bank with interest rate 8% annually, then the future value of
this money after 5 years can be found out as following.
The future value of the investment made at present, after 5 years will be:
So in 5 years the initial investment of 22,20,000 will accrue Rs.10,41,908.4 in interest and will be
worth Rs.32,61,908.4. Alternatively, it could equally be said that Rs.32,61908.4 in 5 years time is
worth Rs.22,20,000 now (assuming an annual interest rate of 8%).
In other words the present value of Rs.32,61,908.40 in 5 years time is Rs.22,00,000 now. The
present value of an amount of money at any specified time in the future can be determined by the
following equation.
DF = (1 + IR/100)–n.
PV = S x DF
Problem
Solution
DF = (1 + IR/100)–n.
• The NPV calculations unlike IRR method, expects the management to know the true cost
of capital.
• NPV gives distorted comparisons between projects of unequal size or unequal economic
life. In order to overcome this limitation, NPV is used with the profitability index.
Problem
It is proposed to install a heat recovery equipment in a factory. The capital cost of installing the
equipment is Rs.20,000 and after 5 years its salvage value is
Data
Rs.1500. If the savings accrued by the heat recovery device
are as shown below, we have to find out the net present
value after 5 years. Discount rate is assumed to be 8%.
Solution
Real value
Inflation can be defined as the rate of increase in the average price of goods and services. In some
countries, inflation is expressed in terms of the retail price index (RPI), which is determined
centrally and reflects average inflation over a range of commodities. Because of inflation, the real
value of cash flow decreases with time. The real value of sum of money (S) realized in n years time
can be determined using the equation.
RV = S x (1 + R/100)–n
Where RV is the real value of S realized in n years time. S is the value of cash flow in n years time
and R is the inflation rate (%). As with the discount factor it is common practice to use an inflation
factor when assessing the impact of inflation on a project. The inflation factor can be determined
using the equation.
IF = (1 + R/100)–n
The product of a particular cash flow and inflation factor is the real value of the cash flow.
RV = S x IF
Problem
Recalculate the net present value of the energy recovery scheme in above Example, assuming the
discount rate remains at 8% and that the rate of inflation is 5%.
Solution
Because of inflation; Real interest rate = Discount rate – Rate of inflation Therefore Real interest
rate = 8 – 5 = 3%
Problem
Solution
(i) Market Research: It will establish what product the customer wants, how much he is prepared to
pay for it and how much he will buy.
(ii) Specification: It will give details such as required life, maximum permissible maintenance
costs, manufacturing costs, required delivery date, expected performance of the product.
(iv) Prototype Manufacture: From the drawings a small quantity of the product will be
manufactured. These prototypes will be used to develop the product.
(v) Development: Testing and changing to meet requirements after the initial run. This period of
testing and changing is development. When a product is made for the first time, it rarely meets the
requirements of the specification and changes have to be made until it meets the requirements.
(vi) Tooling: Tooling up for production can mean building a production line, buying the necessary
tools and equipment’s requiring a very large initial investment.
(vii) Manufacture: The manufacture of a product involves the purchase of raw materials and
components, the use of labour and manufacturing expenses to make the product
a. It results in earlier action to generate revenue or lower costs than otherwise might be
considered. There are a number of factors that need to be managed in order to maximise
return in a product.
b. Better decision should follow from a more accurate and realistic assessment of revenues
and costs within a particular life cycle stage.
c. It can promote long term rewarding in contrast to short term rewarding.
d. It provides an overall framework for considering total incremental costs over the entire
span of a product.
Life cycle costing is a three-staged process. The first stage is life cost planning stage which
includes planning LCC Analysis, Selecting and Developing LCC Model, applying LCC Model and
finally recording and reviewing the LCC Results. The Second Stage is Life Cost Analysis
Preparation Stage followed by third stage Implementation and Monitoring Life Cost Analysis.
Implementation of the Life Cost Analysis involves the continuous monitoring of the actual
performance of an asset during its operation and maintenance to identify areas in which cost
savings may be made and to provide feedback for future life cost planning activities.
LCC is the total discounted (present worth) cash flow for an investment with future costs during its
economic life
LCC = K + R + M + EC - SV
Where:
K = capital cost (capital, labor, overhead)
R =Replacement cost {Σ K/ (1+r)n } where r= interest rate
M= maintenance cost,
EC= energy cost
SV = Salvage Value (in year t)
Electricity is a major secondary energy carrier and is predominantly produced from fossil fuels.
Challenging concerns of the fossil fuel based power generation are depletion of fossil fuels and
global warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) from the combustion of fossil fuels. To
achieve the goal of environmental sustainability in the power sector, a major action would be to
reduce the high reliance on fossil fuels by resorting to the use of clean/renewable sources and
efficient generation/use of electricity. In order to consider the long-term implications of power
generation, a life cycle concept is adopted, which is a cradle-to- grave approach to analyze an
energy system in its entire life cycle. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an effective tool to pin point
the environmental implications.
CASE STUDIES
Specifications
PV array rating= 500W
Pipe length=30 m
Well depth=10 m
Period of analysis= 15 m
IR=10%
Annual maintenance charges (AMC) = Rs 1000 per
year
The major components of this system to be considered in calculating life cycle cost are:
1. Heat energy Collectors
2. Boiler
3. Steam turbine
4. Electric generator
Capital Cost per KW= Cost of (heat energy collectors + boiler + steam turbine + electric generator
+ accessories)
=25000+13900+5500+1000
=Rs.45400
= Rs.8725.4
= Rs. 3865.15
Therefore,
=Rs.57990.55
=Rs.293300
= Rs.6811
SOLAR PV SYSTEM