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Jordi Rodon
University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA
David S. Hong
University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the
advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate
at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the
editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material
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claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
(c) Strategies for the selection of patients most likely to benefit from
a phase I agent
Michael Lahn
Email: m.lahn@ionctura.com
Abstract
Clinical investigation of New Molecular Entities (NME) in oncology is
changing. Drivers of this transformation are advances in
pharmacological platforms, such as antibody technology, changes in the
regulatory framework to accelerate approval of new treatments, and
rapid scientific discovery. As a result of this transformation the
established drug development process is being modified and continues
to adapt. Today significant resources are being moved towards early
clinical development and NME have to show early promise of
therapeutic activity. The ideal NME targets specific pathways, for which
diagnostic tools can be developed to select or enrich patients for the
treatment with NME. This chapter reviews the critical steps enabling
the early phase clinical development from the perspective of a
pharmaceutical drug developer. The required steps include non-clinical
pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic
(PK/PD) models, pharmacology and toxicology studies, and biomarker
development plans.
Keywords Drug development – First in human dose studies –
Immuno-oncology – Kinase inhibitors – Targeted agents – Regulatory
approval – Antibody – Biomarkers
Key Points
1. Drug Development in Oncology is undergoing adaptation in
response to new scientific discoveries.
1.1 Introduction
Today the drug development process for oncology NME is undergoing a
significant change. Drivers for this change include the evolving science,
operational complexities for trials and the need to develop NME in a
financially sustainable manner. Given the number of NME in clinical
development, in particular for immune-oncology NME [1], it is
important to share the perspective of the industry with academic
partners to successfully manage this change [2]. While the
pharmaceutical industry and academic research are struggling to find
efficient and sustainable ways to develop NME [3], the development
costs of NME are staggering given the low output [4]. In 2003, the cost
of launching a NME was estimated to be over 1 billion US dollars with
an expected approval rate of about 7% [5]. Researchers look for
reasons to explain the low output of this clinical research. For example,
the European Science Foundation commissioned a review on drug
development during the twentieth century to uncover the drivers of
successful drug development, but this review was not able to pinpoint a
single factor that predicted successful drug development [6]. Reviews
of recently approved NME found that biomarker-driven programs have
a higher success rate of about 13% compared to 7% when no
biomarkers are included [7]. Other researchers suggested that the
organizational structures of today’s pharmaceutical companies delay
innovation. In fact, small biotech companies developed over 60% of
recently approved NME [8–11]. Today pharmaceutical companies have
to answer to diverse shareholder interests and are subject to increasing
scrutiny from analysts or day traders, some of which have little or no
knowledge of the complexity of drug development [12]. By contrast,
small biotech companies may collaborate with large pharmaceutical
companies at the risk of failing if they do not produce innovation
attractive to larger pharmaceutical firms. Academic partners should be
prepared for the eventuality that a small pharmaceutical company may
be acquired by a larger pharmaceutical firm during the course of a
clinical development. Hence, a standardized process in clinical
development is needed and should be encouraged to allow the
necessary flexibility to transfer data from one sponsor to another
without interrupting the clinical trial.
Given this background, the following chapter will focus on the
biomedical approaches that have shown useful in reducing attrition in
drug development such as (a) leverage pre-existing information
including bioinformatics approaches; (b) integrating non-clinical
information to predict clinical properties of NME and (c) optimize the
operational costs to gain timely information in early trials [13, 14]. This
chapter will discuss the critical components leading to the early phase
studies of NME and how these should be integrated to justify the early
investment in clinical development.
References
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based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) approaches. 2013;15(2):377–87.
16.
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Prediction of human oral plasma concentration-time profiles using preclinical
data. 2011;50(8):505–17.
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models and early clinical trials. Br J Cancer. 2001;84(10):1424–31.
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Fiebig HH, editor. Comparison of tumor response in nude mice and in patients.
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Perez M, Navas L. Carnero A. Patient-derived xenografts as models for
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Day C-P, Merlino G, Van Dyke T. Preclinical mouse cancer models: a maze of
opportunities and challenges. Cell. 2015;163(1):39–53.
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be considered as the fountain of justice and honour, and do not
possess the abilities and magnanimity of a common man, in what a
wretched light must he be viewed by the eyes of discernment and
common sense?—And, if the framers of a constitution create a power
that must continually act at variance with itself, they not only
undermine the pillars of their own fabric, but they insert the scion of
a disease the most destructive to truth and morals.
After complying with this compulsatory request, Louis, who,
finding that he was left without any share of power, seems to have
thought very little of his suspensive veto, determined to play a part
that would give an air of sincerity to his present conduct, whilst his
object was secretly to favour the efforts of the counter-revolutionists;
and if possible effect his own escape.—But, in the mean time, he
endeavoured to make such use of it as might prevent the total
derangement of the old system, without unveiling his secret views,
and intentions. It is difficult to determine which was the most
reprehensible, the folly of the assembly, or the duplicity of the king.
If Louis were without character, and controlled by a court without
virtue, it amounted to a demonstration, that every insidious mean
would be employed by the courtiers to reinstate the old government;
and recover, if possible, their former splendour and voluptuous ease.
For, though they were dispersed, it was notorious to all France, nay,
to all Europe, that a constant correspondence was kept up between
the different parties, and their projects concerted by one of the most
intriguing of disappointed men[30]. It was obvious, therefore, to
Mirabeau, that the king ought to be gained over to the side of the
people; and made to consider himself as their benefactor, in order to
detach him from the cabal. But in this respect he was unfortunately
over-ruled. This mixture of magnanimity, and timidity, of wisdom
and headstrong folly, displayed by the assembly, appears, at the first
view, to involve such a contradiction, that every person unacquainted
with the french character would be ready to call in question the truth
of those undeniable facts, which crowd on the heels of each other
during the progress of the great events, that formed the revolution. A
superficial glance over the circumstances, will not enable us to
account for an inconsistency, which borders on improbability.—We
must, on the contrary, ever keep in our thoughts, that, whilst they
were directed in their political plans, by a wild, half comprehended
theory, their sentiments were still governed by the old chivalrous
sense of honour, which diffusing a degree of romantic heroism into
all their actions, a false magnanimity would not permit them to
question the veracity of a man, on whom they believed they were
conferring favours; and for whom they certainly made great
allowance, if they did not forgive him for countenancing plots, which
tended to undermine their favourite system.
It is, perhaps, the characteristic of vanity, to become enamoured
with ideas, in proportion as they were remote from it’s conception,
until brought to the mind by causes so natural, as to induce it to
believe, that they are the happy and spontaneous flow of it’s own
prolific brain. Their splendour then eclipsing his judgment, the man
is hurried on by enthusiasm and self-sufficiency, like a ship at sea,
without ballast or helm, by every breath of wind: and, to carry the
comparison still further, should a tempest chance to rise in the state,
he is swallowed up in the whirlpools of confusion, into the very midst
of which his conceit has plunged him; as the vessel, that was not
prepared to stem the violence of a hurricane, is buried in the raging
surge.
The occasions of remarking, that frenchmen are the vainest men
living, often occur, and here it must be insisted on; for no sooner had
they taken possession of certain philosophical truths, persuading
themselves, that the world was indebted to them for the discovery,
than they seem to have overlooked every other consideration, but
their adoption. Much evil has been the consequence; yet France is
certainly highly indebted to the national assembly for establishing
many constitutional principles of liberty, which must greatly
accelerate the improvement of the public mind, and ultimately
produce the perfect government, that they vainly endeavoured to
construct immediately with such fatal precipitation.
The consideration of several other articles of the constitution was
continually interrupted, and not more by the variety of business,
which came under the cognizance of the assembly, than by the want
of a proper arrangement of them. Much time was lost in disputing
about the choice of subjects of deliberation; and the order in which
they ought to proceed. The business of the day was perpetually
obliged to give place to episodical scenes; and men, who came
prepared to discuss one question, being obliged to turn to another,
lost in some measure the benefit of reflection, and the energy, so
different from the enthusiasm of the moment, with which a man
supports a well digested opinion.
Two or three slight debates had arisen on the subject of quartering
a thousand men, of the regular troops, at Versailles. The
commandant of the guards had requested permission of the
municipality; pointing out the necessity for the security of the town,
the national assembly, and the person of the king. The necessity did
not appear so obvious to the public, and, in fact, the demand seemed
calculated to provoke the tumults, against which they were so
officiously guarding. Mirabeau also observed, ‘that the executive
power had undoubtedly a right to augment the military force, in any
particular place, when private information, or urgent circumstances,
appeared to require it; and that the municipality had, likewise, a
right to demand the troops they judged necessary; yet he could not
help thinking it singular, that the ministers should have entrusted
the municipality with a secret, which they did not communicate to
the assembly,—who might be supposed at least as anxious to take
every precaution for the safety of the town and the king’s person.’ To
these pertinent remarks no attention was paid; and a letter from the
mayor of Paris, informing the assembly, that a great number of the
districts of the metropolis had remonstrated against the introduction
of regular troops into Versailles, to awe the national guards, was
equally neglected; whilst a letter to the president, in the name of the
king, informing him, that he had taken the different measures
necessary to prevent any disturbances in the place where the
national assembly were sitting, was thrown aside without any
comment.
The loan still failing, several individuals made magnificent
presents; sacrificing their jewels and plate, to relieve the wants of
their country. And the king sent his rich service to the mint, in spite
of the remonstrances of the assembly.—The disinterestedness of this
action, it is absurd to talk of benevolence, may fairly be doubted;
because, had he escaped, and the escape was then in contemplation,
it would have been confiscated; whilst the voluntary offer was a
popular step, which might serve for a little time to cover this design,
and turn the attention of the public from the subject of the
reinforcement of the guards to the patriotism of the king.
These donations, which scarcely afforded a temporary supply,
rather amused than relieved the nation; though they suggested a new
plan to the minister. Necker, therefore, incapable of forming any
great design for the good of the nation, yet calculating on the general
enthusiasm, which pervaded all descriptions and ranks of people,
laid before the assembly the ruinous state of the finances, proposing
at the same time, as the only mode of remedying the evil, to require
of the citizens a contribution of one-fourth of their income. The
assembly was startled by this proposal, but Mirabeau, believing that
the people would now grant whatever their representatives required,
prevailed on the assembly, by a lively representation of the perilous
state of the kingdom, to adopt the only plan of salvation which had
yet been suggested—insisting, that this was the only expedient to
avoid an infamous national bankruptcy. ‘Two centuries of
depredations and pillage,’ he exclaimed, ‘have hollowed out an
immense gulph, in which the kingdom will soon be swallowed. It is
necessary to fill up this frightful abyss. Agreed!—Choose out the rich,
that the sacrifice may fall on the fewer citizens; but, determine
quickly! There are two thousand notables, who have sufficient
property to restore order to your finances, and peace and prosperity
to the kingdom. Strike; immolate without pity these victims!—
precipitate them into the abyss—it is going to close on them—ye draw
back, with horrour—ye men! pusillanimous and inconsistent!—and
see ye not in decreeing a bankruptcy, or, which is still more
contemptible, rendering it inevitable, ye are sullied by an act a
thousand times more criminal?’
But it is impossible to do justice to this burst of eloquence, in a
translation; besides, the most energetic appeals to the passions
always lose half their dignity, or, perhaps, appear to want the support
of reason, when they are coolly perused.—Nothing produces
conviction like passion—it seems the ray from heaven, that
enlightens as it warms.—Yet the effect once over, something like a
fear of having been betrayed into folly clings to the mind it has most
strongly influenced; and an obscure sense of shame lowers the spirits
that were wound up too high.
From the whole tenour of this speech it is clear, that Mirabeau was
in earnest; and that he had fired his imagination, by considering this
plan as an act of heroism, that would ennoble the revolution, and
reflect lasting honour on the national assembly. In this extemporary
flow of eloquence, probably the most simple and noble of modern
times, mixed none of the rhetoric which frequently entered into his
studied compositions; for his periods were often artfully formed;—
but it was the art of a man of genius. He proposed to the assembly to
address their constituents on this occasion; and he was accordingly
requested to prepare an address for their consideration.
His address to the nation is, indeed, a master-piece; yet, being
written to persuade, and not spoken to carry a point immediately,
and overwhelm opposition, there is more reasoning in it; and more
artful, though less forcible, appeals to the passions. And, though this
expedient appears to be the most wild that folly could have
blundered upon, the arguments ought to be preserved with which it
was glossed over.
To expect a man to give the fourth of what he lived on; and that in
the course of fifteen months, leaving it to him to make the estimate,
was expecting that from virtue, which could only have been produced
by enthusiasm. All the ancient acts of heroism, were excited by the
spur of present danger; and of this kind of virtue the french were
equally capable; yet, though the plan afforded them an opportunity
to give a splendid proof of their patriotism, it by no means answered;
because, it being the effect rather of temper than of principle,
selfishness had time to find a plausible pretext to elude it; and vanity
is seldom willing to hide it’s good works in the common measure.
As the removing the national assembly to Paris forms an epocha in
the history of the revolution, it seems proper to close this chapter
with Mirabeau’s address.
‘The deputies of the national assembly suspend a while their
labours to lay before their constituents the wants of the state, and to
call upon their patriotism to second the measures, which a country in
danger demands.
‘It were betraying you to dissemble. Two ways are open—the
nation may stride forward to the most glorious pre-eminence, or fall
head-long into a gulph of misfortune.
‘A great revolution, the very plan of which some months ago would
have appeared chimerical, has taken place amongst us. Accelerated
by unforeseen circumstances, the momentum has suddenly
overthrown our ancient institutions. Without allowing us time to
prop what must be preserved, or to replace what ought to be
destroyed, it has at once surrounded us with ruins.
‘Our efforts to support the government are fruitless, a fatal
numbness cramps all it’s powers. The public revenue is no more; and
credit cannot gain strength at a moment, when our fears equal our
hopes.—This spring of social power unbent, has weakened the whole
machine; men and things, resolution, courage, and even virtue itself,
have lost their tension. If your concurrence do not speedily restore
life and motion to the body-politic, the grandest revolutions,
perishing with the hopes it generated, will mingle again in the chaos,
whence noble exertions have drawn it; and they, who shall still
preserve an unconquerable love of liberty, will refuse to unworthy
citizens the disgraceful consolation of resuming their fetters.
‘Since your deputies have buried all their rivalry, all their
contending interests, in a just and necessary union, the national
assembly has laboured to establish equal laws for the common safety.
It has repaired great errours, and broken the links of countless
thraldoms, which degraded human nature: it has kindled the flame
of joy and hope in the bosoms of the people, the creditors of earth
and nature, whose dignity has been so long tarnished, whose hearts
have been so long discouraged: it has restored the long-obscured
equality of frenchmen, estabblished their common right to serve the
state, to enjoy it’s protection, to merit it’s rewards: in short,
conformably to your instructions, it is gradually erecting, on the
immutable basis of the imprescriptible rights of man, a constitution
mild as nature, lasting as justice, and the imperfections of which, the
consequence of the inexperience of it’s authors, will easily be
repaired. We have had to contend with the inveterate prejudices of
ages, whilst harassed by the thousand uncertainties which
accompany great changes. Our successors will have the beaten track
of experience before them; we have had only the compass of theory
to guide us through the pathless desert. They may labour peaceably;
though we have had to bear up against storms. They will know their
rights, and the limits of their power: we have had to recover the one,
and to fix the other. They will consolidate our work—they will
surpass us—What a recompense! Who shall dare, mean while, to
assign limits to the grandeur of France? Who is not elevated by
hope? Who does not felicitate himself on being a citizen of it’s
empire?
‘Such, however, is the crisis of the finances, that the state is
threatened with dissolution before this grand order of things can find
it’s centre. The cessation of the revenue has banished specie. A
thousand circumstances hasten it’s exportation. The sources of credit
are exhausted; and the wheels of government are almost at a stand. If
patriotism then step not forward to the succour of government, our
armies, our fleets, our subsistence, our arts, our trade, our
agriculture, our national debt, our country itself, will be hurried
towards that catastrophe, when she will receive laws only from
disorder and anarchy—Liberty would have glanced on our sight, only
to disappear for ever, only to leave behind the bitter consciousness,
that we did not merit the possession. And to our shame, in the eyes
of the universe, the evil could be attributed solely to ourselves. With
a soil so fertile, industry so productive, a commerce so flourishing,
and such means of prosperity—what is this embarrassment of our
finances? Our wants amount not to the expence of a summer’s
campaign—and our liberty, is it not worth more than those senseless
struggles, when even victory has proved ruinous?
‘The present difficulty overcome, far from burdening the people, it
will be easy to meliorate their condition. Reductions, which need not
annihilate luxury; reforms, which will reduce none to indigence; a
commutation of the oppressive taxes, an equal assessment of the
impost, together with the equilibrium which must be restored
between our revenue and our expenditure; an order that must be
rendered permanent by our vigilant superintendency.—These are the
scattered objects of your consolatory perspective.—They are not the
unsubstantial coinage of fancy; but real, palpable forms—hopes
capable of proof, things subordinate to calculation.
‘But our actual wants—the paralysis of our public strength, the
hundred and sixty extra millions necessary for this year, and the next
—What can be done? The prime minister has proposed as the great
lever of the effort, which is to decide the kingdom’s fate, a
contribution proportional to the income of each citizen.
‘Between the necessity of providing instantly for the exigencies of
the public, and the impossibility of investigating so speedily the plan
before us; fearing to enter into a labyrinth of calculations, and seeing
nothing contrary to our duty in the minister’s proposal, we have
obeyed the dictates of our consciences, presuming they would be
yours. The attachment of the nation to the author of the plan,
appeared to us a pledge of it’s success; and we confided in his long
experience, rather than trust to the guidance of our speculative
opinions.
‘To the conscience of every citizen is left the valuation of his
income: thus the effect of the measure depends on your own
patriotism. When the nation is bursting from the nothingness of
servitude to the creation of liberty—when policy is about to concur
with nature in unfolding the inconceivable grandeur of her future
destiny—shall vile passions oppose her greatness? interest stay her
flight? and the salvation of the state weigh less than a personal
contribution?
‘No; such madness is not in nature; the passions even do not listen
to such treacherous reckonings. If the revolution, which has given us
a country, cannot rouse some frenchmen out of the torpor of
indifference, at least the tranquillity of the kingdom, the only pledge
of their individual security, will influence them. No; it is not in the
whirl of universal overthrow, in the degradation of tutelary authority,
when a crowd of indigent citizens, shut out from the work-shops, will
be clamouring for impotent pity; when the soldiery disbanded will be
forming itself into hungry gangs of armed plunderers, when property
will be violated with impunity, and the very existence of individuals
menaced—terrour and grief waiting at the door of every family—it is
not amidst such complicated wretchedness, that these cruel and
selfish men will enjoy in peace the hoards which they denied their
country. The only distinction that awaits them, in the general wreck,
will be the universal opprobrium they deserve, or the useless
remorse that will corrode the inmost recesses of their hearts.
‘Ah! how many recent proofs have we of the public spiritedness,
which renders all success so easy! With what rapidity was formed the
national militia, those legions of citizens armed for the defence of the
country, the preservation of tranquillity, and the maintenance of the
laws! A generous emulation has beamed on all sides. Villages, towns,
provinces, have considered their privileges as odious distinctions,
and solicited the honour of depriving themselves of peculiar
advantages, to enrich their country. You know it: time was not
allowed to draw up the mutual concessions, dictated by a purely
patriotic sentiment, into decrees; so impatient was every class of
citizens to restore to the great family whatever endowed some of it’s
members to the prejudice of others.
‘Above all, since the embarrassment of our finances, the patriotic
contributions have increased. From the throne, the majesty of which
a beneficent prince exalts by his virtues, has emanated the most
striking example.—O thou, so justly the dearly beloved of thy people
—king—citizen—man of worth! it was thine to cast a glance over the
magnificence that surrounded thee, and to convert it into national
resources. The objects of luxury which thou hast sacrificed, have
added new lustre to thy dignity; and whilst the love of the french for
thy sacred person makes them murmur at the privation, their
sensibility applauds thy magnanimity; and their generosity will repay
thy beneficence by the return it covets, by an imitation of thy virtues,
by pursuing thy course in the career of public utility.
‘How much wealth, congealed by ostentation into useless heaps,
shall melt into flowing streams of prosperity! How much the prudent
economy of individuals might contribute to the restoration of the
kingdom! How many treasures, which the piety of our forefathers
accumulated on the altars of our temples, will forsake their obscure
cells without changing their sacred destination! “This I set apart, in
times of prosperity;” says religion; “it is fitting that I dispense it in
the day of adversity. It was not for myself—a borrowed lustre adds
nothing to my greatness—it was for you, and the state, that I levied
this honourable tribute on the virtues of your forefathers.”
‘Who can avoid being affected by such examples? What a moment
to display our resources, to invoke the aid of every corner of the
empire!—O prevent the shame, with which the violation of our
engagements, our most sacred engagements, would stain the birth of
freedom! Prevent those dreadful shocks, which, in overturning the
most solid institutions, and shattering the most established fortunes,
would leave France covered with the sad ruins of a shameful
hurricane. How mistaken are those, who at a certain distance from
the capital contemplate not the links, which connect public faith with
national prosperity, and with the social contract! They who
pronounce the infamous term bankruptcy, are they not rather a herd
of ferocious beasts, than a society of men just and free? Where is the
frenchman who will dare to look his fellow citizens in the face, when
his conscience shall upbraid him with having contributed to
empoison the existence of millions of his fellow creatures? Are we the
nation to whose honour it’s enemies bear witness, who are about to
sully the proud distinction by a BANKRUPTCY?—Shall we give them
cause to say, we have only recovered our liberty and strength to
commit, without shuddering, crimes which paled even the cheek of
despotism?
‘Would it be any excuse to protest, that this execrable mischief was
not premeditated? Ah! no: the cries of the victims, whom we shall
scatter over Europe, will drown our voice. Act then!—Be your
measures swift, strong, sure. Dispel the cloud, that lowers over our
heads, the gloom of which sheds terrour into the hearts of the
creditors of France.—If it burst, the devastation of our national
resources will be more tremendous than the terrible plague, which
has lately ravaged our provinces.
‘How will our courage in the exercise of the functions, you have
confided to us, be renewed! With what vigour shall we labour in
forming the constitution, when secured from interruption! We have
sworn to save our country—judge of our anguish, whilst it trembles
on the verge of destruction. A momentary sacrifice is sufficient; a
sacrifice offered to the public good, and not to the encroachments of
covetousness. And is this easy expiation of the faults and blunders of
a period, stigmatized by political servitude, above our strength?
Think of the price which has been paid for liberty by other nations,
who have shown themselves worthy of it:—for this, rivers of blood
have streamed—long years of woe, and horrid civil wars, have every
where preceded the glorious birth!—Of us nothing is required, but a
pecuniary sacrifice—and even this vulgar offering is not an
impoverishing gift:—it will return into our bosom, to enrich our
cities, our fields; augmenting our national glory and prosperity.’
CHAPTER III.
REFLECTIONS ON THE NEW MODE OF RAISING SUPPLIES. NO JUST
SYSTEM OF TAXATION YET ESTABLISHED. PAPER MONEY.
NECESSITY OF GRADUAL REFORM.
The task certainly was very difficult, at this crisis, for a minister to
give satisfaction to the people, and yet supply the wants of the state;
for it was not very likely that the public, who had been exclaiming
against the incessant demands of the old government, would have
been pleased with new burdens, or patiently endured them. Still it is
always the height of folly in a financier, to attempt to supply the
exigencies of government by any but specific and certain means: for
such vague measures will ever produce a deficit, the consequences of
which are most pernicious to public credit and private comfort.
A man, who has a precise sum to live upon, generally takes into his
estimate of expences a certain part of his income as due to the
government, for the protection and social advantages it secures him.
This proportion of his income being commonly the same from period
to period, he lays it by for that particular purpose, and contentedly
enjoys the remainder. But, should a weak minister, or a capricious
government, call on him for an additional sum, because the taxes
have proved unproductive, either through the inability of some of the
members of the state, or that they were laid on articles of
consumption, and the consumption has not been equal to the
calculation; it not only deranges his schemes of domestic economy,
but may be the cause of the most serious inconvenience.
A man who has a limited income, and a large family, is not only
obliged to be very industrious to support them, but he is likewise
necessitated to make all his arrangements with the greatest
circumspection and exactness; because a trifling loss, by involving
him in debt, might lead to his ruin, including that of his family. The
rich man, indeed, seldom thinks of these most cruel misfortunes; for
a few pounds, more or less, are of no real importance to him. Yet the
poor man, nay even the man of moderate fortune, is liable to have his
whole scheme of life broken by a circumstance of this kind, and all
his future days embittered by a perpetual struggle with pecuniary
vexations.
Governments, which ought to protect, and not oppress mankind,
cannot be too regular in their demands; for the manner of levying
taxes is of the highest importance to political economy, and the
happiness of individuals. No government has yet established a just
system of taxation[31]: for in every country the expences of
government have fallen unequally on the citizens; and, perhaps, it is
not possible to render them perfectly equal, but by laying all the
taxes on land, the mother of every production.
In this posture of affairs, the enthusiasm of the french in the cause
of liberty might have been turned to the advantage of a new and
permanent system of finance. An able, bold minister, who possessed
the confidence of the nation, might have recommended with success
the taking of the national property under the direct management of
the assembly; and then endeavouring to raise a loan on that
property, he would have given respectability to the new government,
by immediately procuring the supplies indispensably necessary not
only to keep it, but to put it in motion.
In times of civil commotion, or during a general convulsion, men
who have money, and they are commonly most timid and cautious,
are very apt to take care of it, even at the expence of their interest;
and, therefore, it was to be presumed, that the monied men of France
would not have been very ready to subscribe to the different loans
proposed by the minister, unless the security had been obvious, or
the speculative advantages exorbitant. But if Necker, whom the
prudent usurer adored as his tutelar god, had said to the nation
‘there is a property worth 4,700,000,000 l. independent of the
property of the emigrants, take it into your immediate possession;
and, whilst the sales are going on, give it as a guarantee for the loan
you want. This just and dignified measure will not only relieve your
present necessities, but it will be sufficient to enable you to fulfil
great part of your former engagements.’ There would have been then
no need of the eloquence of Mirabeau; reason would have done the
business; and men, attending to their own interest, would have
promoted the public good, without having their heads turned giddy
by romantic flights of heroism.
The immediate and incessant wants of a state must always be
supplied; prudence therefore, requires, that the directors of the
finances should rather provide by anticipation for it’s wants than
suffer a deficit. The government being once in arrears, additional
taxes become indispensable to bring forward the balance, or the
nation must have recourse to paper notes; an expedient, as
experience has shown, always to be dreaded, because by increasing
the debt it only extends the evil. And this increasing debt, like a ball
of snow, gathering as it rolls, soon attains a wonderful magnitude.
Every state, which has unavoidably accumulated it’s debt, ought,
provided those at the helm wish to preserve the government, and
extend the security and comforts of it’s citizens, to take every just
measure to render the interest secure, and to fund the principal; for
as it augments, like the petrifying mass, it stands in the way of all
improvement, spreading the chilling miseries of poverty around—till
the evil baffling all expedients, a mighty crash produces a new order
of things, overwhelming, with the ruins of the old, thousands of
innocent victims.
The precious metals have been considered as the best of all
possible signs of value, to facilitate the exchange of commodities, to
supply our reciprocal wants: and they will ever be necessary to our
comfort, whilst by the common consent of mankind they are the
standards of exchange. Gold and silver have a specific value, because
it is not easy to accumulate them beyond a certain quantity. Paper,
on the contrary, is a dangerous expedient, except under a well
established government: and even then the business ought to be
conducted with great moderation and sagacity.—Perhaps it would be
wise, that it’s extent should be consistent with the commerce of the
country, and the quantity of species actually in it—But it is the spirit
of commerce to stretch credit too far. The notes, also, which are
issued by a state before it’s government is well established, will
certainly be depreciated; and in proportion as they grow precarious,
the gold and silver, which was formerly in circulation will vanish, and
every article of trade, and all the comforts of life, will bear a higher
price.
These are considerations, which ought to have occurred to the
french minister, and have led him to take decided measures. The
interest of the national debt was 255,395,141 l. by a report for the
year 1792.—Necker, by his account dated the 1st of may, 1789, states
the income at 475,294,000 l., and the expences at 531,533,000 l.:
consequently there was a deficiency of 56,239,000 l.; and it was not
probable, it could not even be expected, that during the convulsions
of a revolution, the taxes would be regularly paid: the debt, then, and
the demands of the state, must increase.
The credit of every government greatly depends on the regulation
of it’s finances; and the most certain way to have given stability to
the new system, would have been by making such arrangements as
would have insured promptitude of payment. No minister ever had it
so much in his power to have taken measures glorious for France,
beneficial to Europe, happy for the people of the day, and
advantageous to posterity. No epocha, since the inflated system of
paper (the full blown bladders of public credit, which may be
destroyed by the prick of a pin) was invented, ever appeared so
favourable as that juncture in France, to have overturned it
completely: and by overlooking these circumstances, the nation has
probably lost most of the advantages, which her finances might have
gained by the revolution.
Such mistakes, whilst they involve in them a thousand difficulties,
prove the necessity of gradual reform; lest the light, suddenly
breaking-in on a benighted people, should overpower the
understanding it ought to direct. The line in which Necker had been
accustomed to move, by restraining what little energy his mind was
capable of exerting, precluded the possibility of his seeing the faint
lines marked on an expansive scale, which afforded the data for
calculations; and the nation, confiding to him the direction of a
business for which he had not sufficient talents, seems to have
contemplated in imagination a prospect, which has not yet been
realized; and whilst expectation hovered on it’s margin, the dazzling
scenery was obscured by clouds the most threatening and
tremendous.
These are evils that from the beginning of time have attended
precipitate and great changes. The improvements in philosophy and
morals have been extremely tardy. All sudden revolutions have been
as suddenly overturned, and things thrown back below their former
state. The improvements in the science of politics have been still
more slow in their advancement than those of philosophy and
morals; but the revolution in France has been progressive. It was a
revolution in the minds of men; and only demanded a new system of
government to be adapted to that change. This was not generally
perceived; and the politicians of the day ran wildly from one extreme
to the other, without recollecting, that even Moses sojourning forty
years in the wilderness could but conduct the jews to the borders of
the promised land, after the first generation had perished in their
prejudices; the most inveterate sins of men.
This is not a discouraging consideration. Our ancestors have
laboured for us; and we, in our turn, must labour for posterity. It is
by tracing the mistakes, and profiting from the discoveries of one
generation, that the next is able to take a more elevated stand. The
first inventor of any instrument has scarcely ever been able to bring
it to a tolerable degree of perfection; and the discoveries of every
man of genius, the optics of Newton excepted, have been improved, if
not extended, by their followers.—Can it then be expected, that the
science of politics and finance, the most important, and most
difficult of all human improvements; a science which involves the
passions, tempers, and manners of men and nations, estimates their
wants, maladies, comforts, happiness, and misery, and computes the
sum of good or evil flowing from social institutions; will not require
the same gradations, and advance by steps equally slow to that state
of perfection necessary to secure the sacred rights of every human
creature?
The vanity and weakness of men have continually tended to retard
this progress of things: still it is going forward; and though the fatal
presumption of the headstrong french, and the more destructive
ambition of their foreign enemies, have given it a check, we may
contemplate with complacent serenity the approximation of the
glorious era, when the appellations of fool and tyrant will be
synonymous.
AN
FRENCH REVOLUTION.
BOOK V.
CHAPTER I.
ERROUR OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN NEGLECTING TO
SECURE THE FREEDOM OF FRANCE. IT’S CONDUCT COMPARED
WITH THAT OF THE AMERICAN STATES. NECESSITY OF FORMING A
NEW CONSTITUTION AS SOON AS AN OLD GOVERNMENT IS
DESTROYED. THE DECLARING THE KING INVIOLABLE A WRONG
MEASURE. SECURITY OF THE FRENCH AGAINST A
COUNTERREVOLUTION. THE FLIGHT OF THE KING MEDITATED.
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