TCWD111- FINALS China similarly hopes to cap the population

of Beijing at 23 million by 2020, notes the

Guardian. Already, plans were in the works
to move government offices out of Beijing to
Lesson 11: The Global a new city being built about 50 miles to the
Demography south.

The Demographic Transition: Three

Shanghai Will Allow Only 800K More to
Centuries of Fundamental Change
Live There
Chinese city will cap its permanent
By Ronald Lee
population at 25M

Before the start of the demographic

By John Johnson, Newser Staff Posted Dec
transition, life was short, births were many,
26, 2017 8:03 AM CST
growth was slow and the population was
young.
(Newser) - Anyone interested in moving to
During the transition, Z mortality and then
Shanghai better not dawdle. The Chinese
fertility declined, causing population growth
economic hub currently has a population of
rates first to accelerate and then to slow
24.2 million, and authorities just put a plan
again, moving toward low fertility, long life
in place to cap the permanent population at
and an old population.
25 million, reports Reuters.

The transition began around 1800 with

The idea behind the newly adopted master
declining mortality in Europe. It has now
plan through 2035 is to curb the maladies
spread to all parts of the world and is
common to major cities such as
projected to be completed by 2100.
environmental pollution, gridlock traffic, and
a decline in the quality of public services
This global demographic transition has
such as medical care and education.
brought momentous changes, reshaping the
economic and demographic life cycles of
The State Council, which refers to all of the
individuals and restructuring populations.
above as "big city disease," also will limit
the amount of land made available for
Since 1800, global population size has
development in the coming years.
already increased by a factor of six and by
2100 will have risen by a factor of ten.
A research fellow at the Shanghai Academy
of Social Sciences predicts that the poor will
There will then be 50 times as many elderly,
bear the brunt of the new population limit
but only five times as many children; thus,
the most because the government will begin
the ratio of elders to children will have risen
tearing down cheap housing now in
by a factor of ten.
existence, per the Global Times. Imposing
such a limit, he warns, is "impractical and
against the social development trend."
The length of life, which has already more ➢ Life expectancy is positively
than doubled, will have tripled, while births associated with height in the
per woman will have dropped from six to industrial country populations (Fogel,
two. 1994; Barker, 1992.)

In 1800, women spent about 70 percent of ➢ In recent decades, the continuing

their adult years bearing and rearing young reduction in mortality is due to
children, but that fraction has decreased in reductions in chronic and
many parts of the world to only about 14 degenerative diseases, notably heart
percent, due to lower fertility and longer life. disease and cancer (Riley, 2001).

➢ In the later part of the century,

publicly organized and funded
Mortality Declines biomedical research has played an
increasingly important part, and the
human genome project and stem
➢ The world’s demographic transition cell research promise future gains.
started in northwest Europe, where
mortality began a secular decline ➢ In India, life expectancy rose from
around 1800. around 24 years in 1920 to 62 years
today, a gain of . 48 years per
➢ The first stage of mortality decline is calendar year over 80 years. In
due to reductions in contagious and China, life expectancy rose from 41
infectious diseases by air or water. in 1950-1955 to 70 in 1995-1999, a
gain of .65 years per year over 45
➢ Preventive medicine, smallpox years.
vaccine, played significantly in the
mortality decline in the eighteenth ➢ On the optimistic side, Oeppen and
century. Vaupel (2002) offer a remarkable
graph that plots the highest national
➢ Improved personal hygiene also female life expectancy attained for
helped as income rose. each calendar year from 1840 to
2000.
➢ The gem theory of diseases became
more widely known and accepted. ➢ The points fall close to a straight
line, starting at 45 years in Sweden
➢ Another major factor in the early and ending at 85 years in Japan,
phases of growing life expectancy is with a slope of 2.4 years per decade.
improvement in nutrition. If we boldly extend the line forward
in time, it reaches 97.5 years by
➢ Famine mortality was reduced by mid-century and 109 years by 2100.
improvements in storage and
transportation. Secular increases in
incomes led to improved nutrition in
childhood and throughout life.
 ➢ Less optimistic projections are ➢ Technological progress and
based on extrapolation of trends in increasing physical and human
age-specific death rates over the capital make labor more productive,
past 50 or 100 years. This approach raising the value of time in all
implies more modest gains for the activities, which makes children
high-income nations of the world, increasingly costly relative to
with average life expectancy consumption goods.
approaching 90 years by the end of
the twenty- first century (Lee and ➢ Since women have had primary
Carter, 1992; Tuljapurkar, Li and responsibility for childbearing and
Boe, 2000). rearing, variations in the productivity
of women have been particularly
important.
Fertility Transition
➢ Rising incomes have shifted
consumption demand toward
➢ Between 1890 and 1920, marital nonagricultural goods and services,
fertility began to decline in most for which educated labor is a more
European provinces, with a median important input.
decline of about 40 percent from
1870 to 1930 (Coale and Treadway, ➢ Overall, these patterns have several
1986, p. 44). effects: children become more
expensive, their economic
➢ Most economic theories of fertility contributions are diminished by
start with the idea that couples wish school time and educated parents
to have a certain number of have higher value of time, which
surviving children, rather than births raises the opportunity costs of child
per se. rearing.

➢ Some of the improvement in child ➢ Furthermore, parents with higher

survival is itself a response to incomes choose to devote more
parental decisions to invest more in resources to each child, and since
the health and welfare of a smaller this raises the cost of each child, it
number of children (Nerlove, 1974). also leads to fewer children (Becker,
1981; Willis, 1974, 1994).
➢ These issues of parental investment
in children suggest that fertility will
also be in* influenced by how
economic change influences the
costs and benefitsZ of childbearing.
Population Growth
➢ Bearing and rearing children is time
intensive. ➢ The combination of fertility and
mortality determines population
growth.
➢ Between 1950 and 2050, the actual ➢ Today, the median individual lives in
and projected trajectories for the a country with a total fertility rate of
More, Less and Least Developed 2.3— barely above the 2.1 fertility
Countries are plotted. rate of the United States—and a
median life expectancy at birth of 68
➢ One is a trajectory for Europe from years compared to 77 years for the
1800 to 1950. The end point of this United States (Wilson, 2001).
trajectory in 1950 is quite close to
the start point for the more
developed countries.
Some Consequences of the Demographic
➢ The starting points of these Transition
demographic paths differ somewhat.
1. Parents reduces their fertility
➢ India had higher initial fertility and 2. But many other changes will also be
mortality than Europe, as did the set in motion in family structure,
Least Developed Countries relative health, institutions for saving and
to the Less Developed Countries in supporting retirement and even in
1950, which in turn had far higher international flows of people and
mortality and fertility than the More capital.
Developed Countries in that year. 3. Adult years become available with
other activities.
➢ Except for India, the starting points 4. Women will be more concentrated
all indicate moderate (for Europe) to with childbearing
rapid (for Least and Less Developed 5. Number of children born declines
Countries) population growth. sharply
6. Negative population growth rates in
➢ There has been rapid global developed countries
convergence in fertility and mortality 7. Reshapes the world’s population
among nations over the past 50
years, although important ➢ The three centuries of demographic
differences remain. transition from 1800 to 2100 will
reshape the world’s population in a
➢ This convergence of fertility and number of ways.
mortality is in marked contrast to per
capita GDP, which has tended to ➢ The obvious changes are the rise in
diverge between high-income and total population from 1 billion in 1800
low-income countries during this to perhaps 9.5 billion in
time. 2100—although this long-term
estimate is highly uncertain due
largely to uncertainty about future
fertility.
➢ The average length of life increases marriage rises or falls seems to vary
by a factor of two or three, and the from setting to setting, and patterns
median age of the population are still changing even in the
doubled from the low 20s to the low populations farthest along in the
40s. transition.

➢ Many More Developed Countries ➢ Parents with fewer children are able
already have negative population to invest more in each child,
growth rates, and the United Nations reflecting the quality-quantity
projects that the population of tradeoff, which may also be one of
Europe will decline by 13 percent the reasons parents reduced their
between now and 2050. fertility (Becker, 1981; Willis, 1974).

Demography
- Respondents/population’s
background
➢ But many other changes will also be - Part of the research.
set in motion in family structure,
health, institutions for saving and - The Greek word “Demos” means
supporting retirement and even in people and “Graphy means “writing
international • flows of people and about” or “recording something”.
capital.
- Demography is the scientific study of
➢ At the level of families, the number the human population.
of children born declines sharply and
childbearing becomes concentrated
into a few years of a woman’s life. Big Three of Demography
1. Birth
➢ When this change is combined with 2. Death
greater longevity, many more adult 3. Migration
years become available for other
activities.

➢ The joint survivorship of couples is

greatly increased, and kin networks
become more intergenerationally
Lesson 12: The Global Migration
dense, while horizontally sparser. Connecting
These changes appear to be quite
universal so far. Migration: Definitions and Types
● Migration means crossing the
➢ However, whether childbearing is
boundary of a political or
concentrated at younger ages or at
administrative unit for a certain
older ages and whether age at
minimum period (Boyle et al. 1998).
 ● Internal migration is the movement ● Highly-skilled and business migrants
of people from one area like a - people with qualifications
province, a district, or municipality to such as the managers,
another within one country. executives, professionals,
technicians, and the like, who
● International migration is the move within the internal labor
crossing of the frontiers which markets of transnational
separate one of the world’s corporations and
approximately 200 states from international organizations.
another.
● Irregular migrants
● Many scholars argue that internal - also known as the
and international migration are part undocumented or illegal
of the same process; they should be migrants. They enter the
analyzed together (Skeldon 1997). country in search for
employment with no
● The great majority of border necessary documents and
crossings do not imply migration: permits.
most travelers are tourists or
business visitors who have no ➢ Refugees
intention of staying in the country for - those who are unable
good. or unwilling to return
to their country
● International migration arises in a because of a
world divided up into nation-states, ‘well-founded fear or
in which remaining in the country of persecution on
birth is still seen as the norm and account of race,
moving to another country as a religion, nationality,
deviation. membership in a
particular social group
● Migration tends to be regarded as or political opinion.
problematic. It has to be controlled
and curbed, for it may bring ➢ Asylum seekers
unpredictable changes. - those who move
across borders in
search of protection.

International migrants are divided into: ➢ Forced migration

● Temporary labor migrants - In a broader sense,
- who migrate for a limited this includes not only
period of time in order to refugees and asylum
work and send remittances to seekers but also
families in the country of people forced to
origin. move by
 environmental
catastrophes or
development projects The Volume of Contemporary Migration
like new factories,
roads or dams.
● The United Nations figures show
➢ Family members that the global migrant stock (the
- also known as family number of people resident in a place
reunion or family outside their country of birth) grew
reunification migrants. from 75 million in 1965 to 120 million
in 1990.
➢ Return migrants
- those who return to ● The 1990 figure was roughly equal
their countries of to 2% of the world’s population.
origin after a period in
another country. ● The number of migrants grew
slightly faster than the world
population as a whole, but the
annual growth rate of 1.9% for the
whole period increasing to 2.6%
Cause of Migration
from 1985-1990 was not dramatic.

● Disparity in levels of income ● International migrants remain a fairly

small minority. Internal migration,
● Employment conversely, is much larger,

● Social well-being ● For instance the number of internal

migrants in India in 1981 was some
● Differences in demographic patterns 200 million, more than double the
with regard to fertility, mortality, number of international migrants in
age-structure, and labor-force the whole world at that time.
growth.
● The significance of migration as a
● According to neoclassical economic major factor in societal change lies
theory, the main cause of migration in the fact that it is concentrated in
is individual's efforts to maximize certain countries and regions.
their income by moving from
low-wage to high-wage economies. ● Migration affects certain areas within
both the sending and the receiving
● Migration decisions are made not countries more than others.
just by individuals- they often
represent family strategies to ● Migration needs to take place in an
maximize income and survival orderly way to safeguard the human
chances (Hugo, 1994). rights of migrants.