非赢不可
非赢不可
MIKE GALLAGHER served as U.S. Representative from Wisconsin from 2017 to 2024 and
chaired the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
What would winning look like? China’s communist rulers would give up
trying to prevail in a hot or cold conflict with the United States and its
friends. And the Chinese people—from ruling elites to everyday citizens
—would find inspiration to explore new models of development and
governance that don’t rely on repression at home and compulsive hostility
abroad.
In addition to having greater clarity about its end goal, the United States
needs to accept that achieving it will require greater friction in U.S.-
Chinese relations. Washington will need to adopt rhetoric and policies
that may feel uncomfortably confrontational but in fact are necessary to
reestablish boundaries that Beijing and its acolytes are violating. That
means imposing costs on Chinese leader Xi Jinping for his policy of
fostering global chaos. It means speaking with candor about the ways
China is hurting U.S. interests. It means rapidly increasing U.S. defense
capabilities to achieve unmistakable qualitative advantages over Beijing. It
means severing China’s access to Western technology and frustrating Xi’s
efforts to convert his country’s wealth into military power. And it means
pursuing intensive diplomacy with Beijing only from a position of
American strength, as perceived by both Washington and Beijing.
No country should relish waging another cold war. Yet a cold war is
already being waged against the United States by China’s leaders. Rather
than denying the existence of this struggle, Washington should own it and
win it. Lukewarm statements that pretend as if there is no cold war
perversely court a hot war; they signal complacency to the American
people and conciliation to Chinese leaders. Like the original Cold War,
the new cold war will not be won through half measures or timid rhetoric.
Victory requires openly admitting that a totalitarian regime that commits
genocide, fuels conflict, and threatens war will never be a reliable partner.
Like the discredited détente policies that Washington adopted in the
1970s to deal with the Soviet Union, the current approach will yield little
cooperation from Chinese leaders while fortifying their conviction that
they can destabilize the world with impunity.
Beijing was also coordinating more closely with Iran and North Korea,
even as those regimes sent weapons to help Moscow wage war in Europe.
Yet Washington was pursuing siloed policies—simultaneously resisting
Russia, appeasing Iran, containing North Korea, and pursuing a mix of
rivalry and engagement with China—that added up to something
manifestly incoherent. Indeed, the situation that Xi had forecast at the
start of the Biden administration was becoming a reality: “The most
important characteristic of the world is, in a word, ‘chaos,’ and this trend
appears likely to continue,” Xi told a seminar of high-level Communist
Party officials in January 2021. Xi made clear that this was a useful
development for China. “The times and trends are on our side,” he said,
adding, “Overall, the opportunities outweigh the challenges.” By March
2023, Xi had revealed that he saw himself not just as a beneficiary of
worldwide turmoil but also as one of its architects. “Right now, there are
changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” he said to Putin
on camera while wrapping up a visit to the Kremlin. “And we are the ones
driving these changes together.”
If ever the time was ripe to call out Beijing for fomenting chaos and to
start systematically imposing costs on the country in response, it was early
2023. Biden, inexplicably, was doing the opposite. On February 1,
residents of Montana spotted a massive, white sphere drifting eastward.
The administration was already tracking the Chinese spy balloon but had
been planning to let it pass overhead without notifying the public. Under
political pressure, Biden ordered the balloon shot down once it reached
the Atlantic Ocean, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a
scheduled trip to Beijing to protest the intrusion. Press reports suggested
the administration had kept quiet about the balloon in order to gather
intelligence about it. But a troubling pattern of downplaying affronts by
Beijing would persist in other contexts.
In June 2023, leaks to the press revealed that Beijing, in a remarkable echo
of the Cold War, was planning to build a joint military training base in
Cuba and had already developed a signals intelligence facility there
targeting the United States. After a National Security Council
spokesperson called reports about the spy facility inaccurate, a White
House official speaking anonymously to the press minimized them by
suggesting that Chinese spying from Cuba was “not a new development.”
The administration also greeted with a shrug new evidence suggesting
that COVID-19 may have initially spread after it accidentally leaked from
a Chinese laboratory. If the virus, which has led to the deaths of an
estimated 27 million people worldwide, turns out to have been artificially
enhanced before it escaped, the revelation would mark a turning point in
human history on par with the advent of nuclear weapons—a situation
that already cries out for U.S. leadership to govern dangerous biological
research worldwide.
What did the United States get in return for all this diplomacy? In the
Biden administration’s tally, the benefits included a promise by Beijing to
resume military-to-military talks (which Beijing had unilaterally
suspended), a new dialogue on the responsible use of artificial intelligence
(technology that Beijing is already weaponizing against the American
people by spreading fake images and other propaganda on social media),
and tentative cooperation to stem the flood of precursor chemicals fueling
the fentanyl crisis in the United States (chemicals that are supplied
mainly by Chinese companies).
Any doubts that Xi saw the American posture as one of weakness were
dispelled after Hamas’s October 7 massacre in Israel. Beijing exploited the
attack by serving up endless anti-Israeli and anti-American propaganda
through TikTok, whose algorithms are subject to control by the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP). Chinese diplomats, like Russian ones, met with
Hamas’s leaders and provided diplomatic cover for the terrorist group,
vetoing UN Security Council resolutions that would have condemned
Hamas. And there is little sign Beijing has done anything, despite
Washington’s requests, to help rein in attacks carried out by the Houthis
on commercial vessels and U.S. warships in the Red Sea—attacks
conducted by the Yemeni rebel group using Iranian missiles, including
ones with technology pioneered by China. (Chinese ships, unsurprisingly,
are usually granted free passage through the kill zone.)
Whether Xi is acting opportunistically or according to a grand design—
or, almost certainly, both—it is clear he sees advantage in stoking crises
that he hopes will exhaust the United States and its allies. In a sobering
Oval Office address in mid-October, Biden seemed to grasp the severity
of the situation. “We’re facing an inflection point in history—one of those
moments where the decisions we make today are going to determine the
future for decades to come,” he said. Yet bizarrely—indeed, provocatively
—he made no mention of China, the chief sponsor of the aggressors he
did call out in the speech: Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Through
omission, Biden gave Beijing a pass.
But the Russians had their own ideas about the utility of détente. As the
historian John Lewis Gaddis observed, the Soviets “might have viewed
détente as their own instrument for inducing complacency in the West
while they finished assembling the ultimate means of applying pressure—
their emergence as a full-scale military rival of the United States.” Nixon
and Kissinger thought détente would secure Soviet help in managing
crises around the world and, as Gaddis put it, “enmesh the U.S.S.R. in a
network of economic relationships that would make it difficult, if not
impossible, for the Russians to take actions in the future detrimental to
Western interests.” But the policy failed to achieve its goals.
By the time President Ronald Reagan entered the White House, in 1981,
Nixon and Kissinger’s invention was on its last legs. “Détente’s been a
one-way street that the Soviet Union has used to pursue its aims,” Reagan
stated flatly in his first press conference as president, effectively burying
the concept.
Reagan sought to win, not merely manage, the Cold War. In a sharp
departure from his immediate predecessors, he spoke candidly about the
nature of the Soviet threat, recognizing that autocrats often bully
democracies into silence by depicting honesty as a form of aggression. In
1987, when Reagan was preparing to give a speech within sight of the
Berlin Wall, some of his aides begged him to remove a phrase they found
gratuitously provocative. Wisely, he overruled them and delivered the
most iconic line of his presidency: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”
For Xi, the Internet is the “main battlefield” of this smokeless war. In
2020, the scholar Yuan Peng, writing before he resurfaced under a new
name as a vice minister of China’s premier spy agency, also recognized the
power of controlling speech online: “In the Internet era . . . what is truth
and what is a lie is already unimportant; what’s important is who controls
discourse power.” Xi has poured billions of dollars into building and
harnessing what he calls “external discourse mechanisms,” and other
Chinese leaders have specifically highlighted short-video platforms such
as TikTok as the “megaphones” of discourse power. They aren’t afraid to
use those megaphones. According to a February 2024 report from the
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, TikTok accounts run by
Chinese propaganda outfits “reportedly targeted candidates from both
political parties during the U.S. midterm election cycle in 2022.”
As the CCP seeks to set the terms of global discourse, what it wants more
than anything from the United States and the rest of the West is silence—
silence about China’s human rights abuses, silence about its aggression
toward Taiwan, and silence about the West’s own deeply held beliefs,
which contrast irreconcilably with the party’s. It is no surprise, then, that
so much of the CCP’s strategy on the smokeless battlefield is about
drowning out speech it doesn’t like—both inside and outside China. It is
American silence—not candor—that is truly provocative, for it signals to
the CCP that China is advancing and the United States is retreating.
For U.S. forces to actually deter China, they need to be able to move
within striking range. Given the maritime geography of the Indo-Pacific
and the threat that China’s vast missile arsenal poses to U.S. bases, the
State Department will need to expand hosting and access agreements with
allies and partners to extend the U.S. military’s footprint in the region.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, will need to harden U.S. military installations
across the region and pre-position critical supplies such as fuel,
ammunition, and equipment throughout the Pacific.
But the United States could keep the Chinese military contained and still
lose the new cold war if China held the West hostage economically.
Beijing is bent on weaponizing its stranglehold over global supply chains
and its dominance of critical emerging technologies. To reduce Chinese
leverage and ensure that the United States, not China, develops the key
technologies of the future, Washington needs to reset the terms of the
bilateral economic relationship. It should start by repealing China’s
permanent normal trade relations status, which provides China access to
U.S. markets on generous terms, and moving China to a new tariff
column that features gradually increasing rates on products critical to U.S.
national security and economic competitiveness. The revenue raised from
increased tariffs could be spent on offsetting the costs that U.S. exporters
will incur as a result of China’s inevitable retaliatory measures and on
bolstering U.S. supply chains for strategically important products.
Washington must also halt the flow of American money and technology
to Chinese companies that support Beijing’s military buildup and high-
tech surveillance system. The Biden administration’s August 2023
executive order restricting a subset of outbound investment to China was
an important step in the right direction, but it doesn’t go far enough.
Washington must expand investment restrictions to include critical and
emerging technologies such as hypersonics, space systems, and new
biotechnologies. It must also put an end to U.S. financial firms’ disturbing
practice of offering publicly traded financial products, such as exchange-
traded funds and mutual funds, that invest in Chinese companies that are
on U.S. government blacklists. Using the current export controls on
advanced semiconductors as a model, the Department of Commerce
should reduce the flow of critical technology to China by introducing
similar export bans on other key areas of U.S. innovation, such as
quantum computing and biotechnology.
The U.S. government also needs to recruit the next generation of cold
warriors to apply their talents to the contest with China. It should start by
reversing the crisis in military recruitment—not by lowering standards,
promising easy pay, or infusing the force with diversity, equity, and
inclusion ideology but by unapologetically touting the virtues of an elite,
colorblind, all-volunteer force and challenging young Americans to step
up. The intelligence community also needs to recruit experts in emerging
technology, finance, and open-source research and make it easier to
temporarily leave the private sector for a stint in government. National
security agencies need to cultivate deep expertise in Asia and in the
history and ideology of the CCP. The curricula of the service academies
and war colleges, as well as ongoing professional military education,
should reflect this shift.
Washington should not fear the end state desired by a growing number of
Chinese: a China that is able to chart its own course free from communist
dictatorship. Xi’s draconian rule has persuaded even many CCP members
that the system that produced China’s recent precipitous decline in
prosperity, status, and individual happiness is one that deserves
reexamination. The system that produced an all-encompassing
surveillance state, forced-labor colonies, and the genocide of minority
groups inside its borders is one that likewise desecrates Chinese
philosophy and religion—the fountainheads from which a better model
will eventually spring.
The U.S. victory wasn’t Reagan’s alone, of course. It was built on strategies
forged by presidents of both parties and manifested in documents such as
NSC-68, the 1950 Truman administration policy paper that argued that
the United States’ “policy and actions must be such as to foster a
fundamental change in the nature of the Soviet system.” One can draw a
straight line from that document to National Security Decision Directive
75, the 1983 Reagan administration order that called for “internal
pressure on the USSR to weaken the sources of Soviet imperialism.” In
some ways, it was the détente years, not the Reagan years, that were an
aberration in Cold War strategy.
Xi, who has vilified Gorbachev and fashioned his own leadership style
after that of Joseph Stalin, has proved time and again that he is not a
leader with whom Americans can solve problems. He is an agent of chaos.
Washington should seek to weaken the sources of CCP imperialism and
hold out for a Chinese leader who behaves less like an unrelenting foe.
This does not mean forcible regime change, subversion, or war. But it does
mean seeking truth from facts, as Chinese leaders are fond of saying, and
understanding that the CCP has no desire to coexist indefinitely with
great powers that promote liberal values and thus represent a fundamental
threat to its rule.