Submitted by:

Abdul
Rehman

Roll-No:

#4
8

Submitted to:

Dr. Hussain
abbas

Subject:

Regional Conflicts

Research proposal:
 China’s Strategic interests and
conflict escalation in the South China
Sea (SCS).
Title: China’s Strategic interests and conflict
escalation in the South China Sea (SCS).
Introduction:
Located at the center of Southeast Asia, the South China Sea
(SCS) is a crucial water body that is bordered by nations like
China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia
among others. The South China Sea is among the largest bodies
of water controlling international trade amounting to 3.4 trillion
dollars approximately. Other than the economic perspective, the
territory also has a strategic significance owing to the fact that it
is estimated to possess about 11 billion barrels of untapped
oil, 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and enormous
fishing areas that provide sustenance to millions in the region.
The South China Sea has been inflicted with international border
disputes due to the clash of boundaries among several nations.
The contestation primarily involves small islands, reefs, and
shoals, including the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, and
Scarborough Shoal. Central to the dispute is China's expansive
claim, delineated by the "Nine-Dash Line," which covers nearly
90% of the South China Sea. China asserts this claim based on
historical records, but it has been challenged by other claimant
states such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, as
well as by international powers like the United States. The U.S.
opposes China's claims, citing violations of international law and
advocating for freedom of navigation in the region.
As a country with historical and deep-seated economic and
security concerns, China’s interests in the South China Sea relate
given the fact that the region provides routes for trade and
importation of energy resources. From a strategic point of view,
China sees the South China Sea as part of its defense perimeter
against the influence of the United States in the Asia Pacific
region. In addition, the region has a wealth of resources
necessary to support the development China's growth. In
addition, China’s aggressive moves serve a function in the home
landscape as they enhance its legitimacy by demonstrating its
capacity to protect the Chinese sovereignty.
The United States has actively responded to China's growing
influence in the South China Sea, employing a strategy that
includes military presence and support for other claimant nations.
The U.S. has established a network of military bases in the region,
encircling China through the First Island Chain (which includes
Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan) and the Second Island
Chain (extending to Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands).
These chains serve as a strategic framework for containing
China's maritime ambitions. Furthermore, the U.S. Navy conducts
Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s
claims and asserts its commitment to protecting open sea lanes.
Washington also provides military and economic support to
nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam, strengthening their
capabilities to resist Chinese aggression. This growing U.S.-China
rivalry in the South China Sea has transformed the region into a
flashpoint for potential conflict, amplifying the stakes for all
involved parties.

Statement of the Problem:

The South China Sea remains a region of intense geopolitical
rivalry, with competing territorial claims, economic interests, and
strategic objectives. China’s assertion of sovereignty over nearly
the entire South China Sea, based on the Nine-Dash Line, has led
to significant tensions with neighboring countries, particularly
Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Despite the 2016 PCA
ruling, which invalidated China’s claims, China continues to assert
its control over the region, militarize artificial islands, and restrict
freedom of navigation. This research seeks to explore how China’s
strategic interests in the South China Sea have contributed to the
escalation of conflict and examine the role of external powers in
influencing the situation.

Literature Review
1. Bill Hayton’s "The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power
in Asia" (2014): Hayton’s book offers a comprehensive
historical and geopolitical analysis of China’s actions in the
South China Sea. He argues that China’s territorial claims
are part of a larger strategy to assert regional dominance
and challenge the influence of the United States in the Indo-
Pacific. This work is crucial for understanding China’s long-
term ambitions and the broader context of its actions.
2. Robert Beckman’s "The South China Sea Dispute: A
Conflict between China and International Law" (2018):

Beckman provides a detailed analysis of the legal aspects of the

dispute, particularly the PCA ruling and UNCLOS. He discusses the
legal challenges to China’s claims and the difficulties in enforcing
international law, offering a critical perspective on the legal
framework that governs maritime disputes.

3. U.S. Department of Defense. (2020). Annual report to

Congress: Military and security developments involving the
People's Republic of China.

These works provide valuable context for understanding the

multi-dimensional nature of the dispute and its broader
implications for regional security.
Hypothesis
The hypothesis for this research is:

1: China’s strategic interests in the South China Sea—driven by

economic, military, and geopolitical factors—have
significantly contributed to the escalation of conflict in the region,
particularly through its militarization of disputed territories and
rejection of international legal rulings.

2: The involvement of external powers, especially the United

States, has intensified the conflict, as the U.S. seeks to maintain
freedom of navigation and challenge China’s growing influence in
the Indo-Pacific.

Research Questions
This research aims to answer the following questions:

1. What is China’s economic, military, and geopolitical

interests in the South China Sea?

2. How have China’s actions in the South China Sea

contributed to the escalation of conflict with neighboring
countries and external powers?

3. What role has international law, particularly UNCLOS

and the 2016 PCA ruling, played in shaping the dispute
and influencing China’s behavior?

4. How has the involvement of external powers, especially

the United States, influenced the conflict in the South
China Sea?

5. What are the potential consequences of continued

conflict escalation for regional and global security?
Theoretical Framework:
In this study, Neoconservative Theory of international relations
will be used to analyze Chinese behavior and approach to the
South China Sea. Neoconservatism is a school of thought that
emphasizes the importance of military power, national security,
and the projection of national interests in international relations.
According to this theory, states often act in their self-interest,
using military power, economic leverage, and diplomatic influence
to secure their interests.

In the context of China’s behavior in the South China Sea, the

Neoconservative Theory helps explain how China uses
military strength and economic influence to assert control
over the region. The theory also sheds light on how China
challenges the global order (led by the United States) and seeks
to reshape the Indo-Pacific to serve its national interests. This
theory also helps us understand China’s assertive foreign policy—
from militarization of disputed territories to rejection of
international legal norms—as a means of expanding its influence
and securing resources.

Research Methodology:
This research will employ a qualitative research methodology,
which includes document analysis, case studies, and policy
analysis. The research will focus on secondary data sources such
as government reports, academic papers, legal rulings, and news
articles. This methodology is suitable for understanding the
geopolitical and legal dynamics of the South China Sea dispute.
1. Document Analysis:
 - UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea)
will be analyzed to assess the international legal framework
governing maritime boundaries and rights in the South China Sea.
- The PCA ruling from 2016, which rejected China’s Nine-
Dash Line claims, will be reviewed to understand the legal
implications and China’s response to international law.
- Government Reports and Policy Documents from China, the
Philippines, Vietnam, and other claimant nations will be analyzed
to understand their strategic goals and responses to the dispute.
2. Case Studies:
- A case study of the Scarborough Shoal standoff (2012),
where China and the Philippines had a tense military
confrontation, will be explored to understand how localized
conflicts have escalated.
 The militarization of artificial islands in the Spratly Islands
will be examined to understand how China’s actions have
contributed to regional instability.
3 . Policy Analysis:
The role of external powers, particularly the United States, will be
assessed. The U.S. has conducted freedom of navigation
operations (FONOPs) to challenge China’s claims in the region.
The research will analyze how these actions have influenced the
conflict.

Organization of the Study

The study will be organized as follows:

1. Introduction: Provides an overview of the South China Sea

dispute, its geopolitical significance, and China’s strategic
interests in the region.
 2. Section 1 – China’s Strategic Interests: Analyzes China’s
economic, military, and geopolitical goals in the South China
Sea.
3. Section 2 – The Escalation of Conflict: Examines the factors
that have contributed to the conflict’s escalation, including
territorial claims, militarization, and legal disputes.
4. Section 3 – The Role of International Law and External
Actors: Assesses the impact of UNCLOS, the PCA ruling, and
U.S. involvement on the dispute.
5. Conclusion: Summarizes the findings and offers
recommendations for managing the conflict and reducing
tensions in the South China Sea.

Bibliography:

1. Bateman, S., & Emmers, R. (2018). Security and

international law in the South China Sea: A critical analysis.
Routledge.
2. Zhao, H. (2020). The South China Sea: A maritime dispute
between China and its neighbors. Springer.
3. Beckman, R. (2017). The South China Sea: Legal and policy
perspectives. Asian Journal of International Law, 7(2), 240-
262.
4. Taliaferro, J. W. (2019). Power transitions and conflict in the
South China Sea. International Security, 44(3), 121-145.
5. United Nations. (2016). Award of the arbitral tribunal in the
matter of the South China Sea arbitration (Philippines v.
China).
6. U.S. Department of Defense. (2020). Annual report to
Congress: Military and security developments involving the
People's Republic of China.
7. Kapur, S. (2023, March 5). The U.S. pivot to the South China
Sea: A balancing act between containment and cooperation.
The Diplomat.
8. Goh, E. (2021, June 28). China’s rise and the South China
Sea: The strategic implications for ASEAN countries. The
Straits Times.
9. Li, X. (2019). The United States’ role in the South China Sea
dispute: Implications for regional security. Paper presented
at the International Relations Conference, Beijing, China.
10. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
(2021). The South China Sea: An assessment of military
buildup and regional tensions.
11. Lowy Institute. (2018). China's Maritime Strategy and
the South China Sea Disputes.