Peri-Urbanisation in Europe: March 2011
Peri-Urbanisation in Europe: March 2011
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Peri-Urbanisation in Europe
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                      Synthesis
                      Report
PERI-URBANISATION IN EUROPE
                          1
2
                      Synthesis
                      Report
PERI-URBANISATION
IN EUROPE Towards
                      European
                      Policies
                      to Sustain
                      Urban-Rural
                      Futures
            Editors
      Annette Piorr
        Joe Ravetz
        Ivan Tosics
  7            Preface
		             Kjell Nilsson
  8            EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
		             Joe Ravetz, Annette Piorr, Ivan Tosics
          42   PERI-URBAN AGENDAS
  44           Economy and employment
		             Piotr Korcelli, Elzbieta Kozubek
  80           Managing Growth
		             Ivan Tosics, Joe Ravetz
                Contents
			EU POLICY OPTIONS
   Integrated Development for
          114
		 Peri-Urban Territorial Cohesion
		              Joe Ravetz
          132   Annex
  134           Methods und models
		              Annette Piorr
  138           iIAT-EU
		              Annette Piorr, Ingo Zasada
140 References
          143   Imprint
6
                             Preface
                                                                                                                     7
8
                         Executive Summary
New research results from the FP6 PLUREL project show that
urban development is by far the most rapidly expanding land
use change in Europe. Urban development has a lot of posi-
tive effects as a locomotive for economic development, but it
can also have serious negative social and environmental con-
sequences, for example, through urban sprawl. A better bal-
anced and sustainable development requires more policy at-
tention at the regional level and on the urban-rural interface.
The EU can promote an integrated rural-urban development by
targeting its policies and funding towards peri-urban areas.
Facts on peri-urbanisation
                          Today, the European areas classified as ‘peri-ur-    Similar modelling on the impacts of urbanisa-
                           ban’ have the same amount of built-up land as         tion show that land fragmentation, loss of habi-
                           urban areas, but are only half as densely popu-       tats and amenity values will all be more serious
                           lated.                                                in the peri-urban than today.
                          There is a real risk of increasing urban sprawl:     Meanwhile, the peri-urban is also a place of in-
                           The growth of built development of peri-urban         novation and increasing employment in the
                           areas will be up to 3.7 times as high as in urban     service and IT sectors: 25% of peri-urban regions
                           areas.                                                are classified as ‘highly innovative’.
                          European-wide projections of built development       New research from the EU Project PLUREL quan-
                           in peri-urban areas are for 1.4 – 2.5% per annum      tifies the trends, risks and potentials for peri-ur-
                           – if such trends continue. Total built develop-       ban regions, and provides recommendations for
Energy wood plantation     ment in peri-urban areas could double between         targeted policies and new concepts of urban-ru-
near Trieste, Italy        2040 – 2060.                                          ral linkages.
                                                                                                                                   9
     A New Kind Of Space                                       What is the peri-urban?
10
Peri-urban areas suffer from urban pressures, but           A1 – ‘Hypertech’: growth, technology innovation
they also gain from proximity to urban areas, mar-             and out-migration to rural areas.
kets and cultures. The direct impacts of uncontrolled       A2 – ‘Extreme water’: rapid climate change, and
expansion of built development are focused on ur-              defence against flood and drought.
ban sprawl – defined by the European Environment            B1 – ‘Peak oil’: energy price shock, with re-popula-
Agency as ‘unplanned incremental urban develop-               tion of cities and towns.
ment, characterised by a low density mix of land uses       B2 – ‘Social fragmentation’: communities in re-
on the urban fringe’. Even without the expansion of           treat into private enclaves.
built development, there are urban pressures on
peri-urban areas: housing shortages, transport con-        For each of these a set of detailed models calculated
gestion, decline of landscape quality, economic re-        the effects of economic growth, population change,
structuring and social change. On the other hand,          environmental and technology factors onto land
there are positive effects, such as proximity to mar-      use change and built development up to the year
kets and work places, quality of life, and innovation.     2025. The projections for an increase in built devel-
                                                           opment (defined as ‘artificial surfaces’) are espe-
     What are the dynamics                                 cially high in peri-urban areas at 1.4 – 2.5% per an-
     of change?                                            num. In contrast, urban areas can expect growth
                                                           rates of only 0.5 – 0.7%. If such trends continue, the
                                                                                                              11
                                                            peripheral regions in central and eastern Europe
Peri-Urban Agendas                                          have less chance of catching up. Europe-wide migra-
                                                            tion (in particular from eastern EU and from outside
     Economy and employment                                 the EU), as well as national level migration will
                                                            change the demographic structure, with effects on
12
     Mobility and transport
                                                                                                                 13
          Managing Growth
14
     European policy
     agendas
makes the best use of policies and funding. Many            Globalisation and innovation. Conventional eco-
peri-urban areas qualify for either urban or rural de-       nomic development often takes peri-urban land
velopment funding from various sectoral budgets.             as the location for large scale industry, science
But this is rarely focused on place-specific require-        and business parks, roads and other urban infra-
ments, and there is a hidden risk of uncoordinated           structure;
development and urban sprawl.                               Demographic change. The shrinking of some re-
      Meanwhile, it is clear that peri-urban areas           gions, the ageing of many others, and one-sided
have great potential and great opportunities. So we          migration tendencies bring challenges to the
need to refocus policy to address this. At the EU level,     population stability of peri-urban areas, lead to
this applies particularly to the Structural and Cohe-        Europe-wide unwanted restructurings of popu-
sion Funds, as well as the CAP and various transport/        lation, and further widen the gap between over-
environment policies. Around 20% of the total                and under-populated areas;
Structural Funds in the Programming period 2007 –           Climate change impacts combined with urbani-
2013 will be spent in rural areas, and around 32% in         sation and fragmentation of peri-urban areas
urban areas. The Structural Funds and associated             resulting in flooding and sea-level rise in some
programmes have an indirect but powerful effect on           areas, while in others, soil erosion and habitat
peri-urban development, as well as in regions which          loss. Energy shortages will change the viability
are predominantly peri-urban.                                of peri-urban transport, while the search for re-
      In terms of agriculture, countries with large          newable sources will claim peri-urban land use.
peri-urban areas spend more of the Rural Develop-
ment budget for diversification measures than              EUROPE 2020 is a potential driver of policy innova-
those countries which are mainly rural. In most other      tion for “territorial cohesion”, integrating economic,
countries, investment support and agri-environ-            environmental and social aspects. But achieving the
mental payments are the main focus of Rural Devel-         Lisbon Agenda, on current trends, is likely to produce
opment funding. In terms of better policy targeting,       urban sprawl on a massive scale. So, there is a need
it has to be stated that the potential for rural-urban     for a stronger policy focus on the peri-urban agenda,
linkages has not yet been realised. In future, the CAP     particularly in terms of major financial interven-
should focus on these linkages, with a more multi-         tions. EUROPE 2020 could become an opportunity
functional landscape of urban, peri-urban and rural        for new thinking on core agendas in the peri-urban.
food production with short supply chains, peri-ur-         This would require, however, a multilevel approach,
ban leisure activities, sustainable landscape man-         particularly with national government systems,
agement and urban-rural LEADER initiatives.                planning policies and financing for local and re-
      In some countries, more than 10% of NATURA           gional development.
2000 sites are in peri-urban areas. While Rural Devel-
opment programmes support extensive agriculture
and diversification in such peri-urban areas of high
ecological value, other measures such as LEADER do
not.
                                                                                                              15
      Integrated Development
      and EU Policy Options
      Government and governance                                gion level, strategic planning should promote low-
      for integrated development                               impact infrastructure and public services in
                                                               sustainable settlement forms. This then applies to
16
     EU policy options
                                                                                                                17
18
A NEW KIND
OF SPACE
             19
                        Why the peri-urban?
Figure 1: persent
population by region.       90                                                           9
Figures from World          80                                                           8
Resources Institute         70                                                           7
(2001)                      60                                                           6
                            50                                                           5
                            40                                                           4
                            30                                                           3
                            20                                                           2
                             10                                                          1
                             0    Afrika     Asia   Central europe north    South        0 1950            1975        2000         2025
                                                    Amerika        Amerika Amerika                URbAn DeveLoPIng      RURAL DeveLoPIng
                                           1970             2000              2025                URbAn DeveLoPeD       RURAL DeveLoPeD
20
growing concentration of these urbanites in large          agriculture or to urbanise and build upon, and unaf-
cities with millions of residents and declining availa-    fordable housing prices due to increased demand as
bility of natural resources.                               metropolitan expansion or residential tourism takes
       In the decade 1990 – 2000, the growth of ur-        place.
ban areas and associated infrastructure throughout               As differences between urban and rural be-
Europe consumed more than 8000 km2 – equivalent            come decreasingly clear-cut, it is difficult to analyse
to the entire territory of the state of Luxembourg, or     urban and rural areas separately, but instead as
0.25% of the total area of agriculture, forest and na-     fuzzy territories composed of mixed areas, from
ture land (EEA, 2006). This is an almost irreversible      more the densely urbanised to diffuse and disperse
process, since less than 10% goes the opposite way,        zones and isolated towns (Mcrit, 2010). The terms
i.e. is transferred from urban land into brownfields,      ‘rural’ and ‘urban’ refer increasingly to social atti-
and only a minor part of these are reclaimed for ar-       tudes and stereotypes, or narratives, than to real
able land use or nature. An important driving force        places. Urban areas can be found in rather rural
behind urban expansion is, of course, the growth of        landscapes, such as urban sprawl, in commuting ar-
the urban population. An equally important effect,         eas of a major metropolis, large food processing dis-
however, is the ‘per capita sprawl’: cities have be-       tricts and scientific clusters, while rural areas can be
come much less compact. Since the mid 1950s, Eu-           found within urban environments, namely urban
ropean urban areas have expanded on average by             farming and gardening, urban forestry and agricul-
78%, whereas their population has grown only by            tural communities within metropolitan areas.
33% (EEA, 2006). Even in regions where the popula-
tion is decreasing, urban areas are still growing, no-          The spatial context:
tably in Spain, Portugal, Italy and in eastern Ger-             The rural-urban region
many. Leipzig-Halle is an example of a region which
suffers from both the problems of a shrinking city         PLUREL deals with the problems of urban expansion
and urban sprawl. The same trend – that urban ar-          through the lens of the rural-urban regions (RUR).
eas expand faster than the population – can be             This concept can be considered as the spatial exten-
seen in the United States and China (Nilsson and           sion of the Functional Urban Area (an urban core
Nielsen, 2010).                                            and its surrounding commuting ring, see e.g. ESPON
       The dominant spatial form of the continued ur-      1.1.1 (ESPON, 2005)), including both the peri-urban
ban expansion processes is urban sprawl, which             and rural part of an urban catchment up to a dis-
blurs of boundaries between what is urban and              tance where daily commuting ceases due to travel
what is rural. Infrastructure, activities and inhabit-     times becoming too long. Areas of recreational use,
ants affect rural zones at a growing distance from         food supply and nature conservation located in pre-
the city centres, causing land use changes, land use       dominantly rural areas are also part of the RUR. Ru-
competition, and social and economic changes in            ral-urban regions can also be described as spatial
what were previously rural areas. The rural land-          clusters of three interrelated regional sub-systems
scape is no longer simply for agricultural production      – the urban zone, the peri-urban surroundings and
and residential use, but also for purposes of recrea-      the rural hinterland, all characterised by different
tion and amenity.                                          structures, functions and relations which are re-
       It is no longer easy to argue for the traditional   flected through different land use classes.
split between the two geographies of urban and ru-                It is a natural wish of many families to increase
ral Europe. In most countries, urban centres have          their quality of life by acquiring low-rise single fam-
long since lost their particular privileges, and there     ily residences on larger plots. However, the advan-
is no longer a clear difference in the administrative      tages of the individual families must be balanced
status between town and countryside. The rural life        against the negative impacts of urban expansion.
is urbanised by transcending commodity relations,          These impacts depend to a large extent on the spa-
and lifestyles are organised around mass consump-          tial pattern of urban growth: polycentric develop-
tion regardless of location (ESPON, 2006).                 ment is less harmful then unlimited urban sprawl.
       There are increasing conflicts between urban               Empirical investigations have resulted in long
and rural uses that need to be addressed (Mcrit,           lists of negative impacts related to urban sprawl.
2010). For example, water availability for agriculture     Most well known are the environmental impacts.
versus water to drink and for industry, using land for     For example, the consumption of mostly non-re-
                                                                                                                      21
                                                               The dynamics
                                                               of development in the
                                                               peri-urban areas
22
     Urban sprawl as a
     policy challenge
                                                                                                                                              23
               Concepts and methods
24
 Functional Urban Area (FUA): “an urban core and                                   Figure 2 shows two interpretations of this scheme.
  the area around it that is economically integrated                                The upper sketch is a simple text-book depiction of a
  with the centre, e.g. the local labour market. Be                                monocentric settlement pattern surrounded by
  longing to a commuter catchment area, FUAs re                                    nesting circles. The lower sketch is a more realistic
  present common local labour and housing mar                                      version: a polycentric agglomeration of settlements
  kets.” (ESPON Report 1.1.1 (ESPON 2005))                                          with different sizes and patterns surrounded by a
 Rural-urban region (RUR): “spatial clusters of                                    rural hinterland with a complex boundary. In the
  three interrelated regional subsystems – the ur                                 polycentric version, the peri-urban areas do not only
  ban core, the periurban surroundings and the                                     surround the urban, they are also a geographical
  rural hinterland. Areas of recreational use, food                                 type and territory unto their own, and the reality on
  supply and nature conservation located in pre                                    the ground is often complex and fast changing. FUAs
  dominantly rural areas are also part of the rural                                overlap and merge to form urban agglomerations,
  urban region.” (PLUREL Description of Work 2009,                                  existing settlements change their shape and func-
  p11). Rural-urban regions are the overall territo-                                tion, and in larger FUAs, there are many areas with a
  rial unit of analysis for the PLUREL project. They                                combination of infrastructure, housing, industry,
  include both the ‘Functional Urban Area’ (zone of                                 open space and land in transition – a challenge by
  daily commuting) and the surrounding rural hin-                                   any definition.
  terland. A technical calculation method for rural-                                      Another issue is data. Generally we are required
  urban regions is shown in table 1 and in figure 4.                                to refer to the NUTS system (Nomenclature of Units
  However, in policy terms, the rural-urban region                                  for Territorial Statistics), which is a geocode standard
  boundaries are flexible in order to respond to                                    for subdivisions of countries for statistical purposes
  problems and opportunities.                                                       of territorial classification across the EU. The NUTS
 So, in summary: the urban area + peri-urban area =                                boundaries (e.g. NUTS0 national, NUTS2 region,
  Functional Urban Area.                                                            NUTS3 district) often do not fit with any of the
 And also: the urban area + peri-urban area + rural                                boundary definitions above, which makes research-
  hinterland = rural-urban region.                                                  ing these units even more challenging.
                                                                                                                     Figure 2:
                                                                                                                     Peri-urban areas & the
                                                                                                                     ‘rural-urban-region’
                                                                                                                     Geographic concepts &
                                                                                                                     definitions as used in the
                                                                                            (a) Mono-centric         PLUREL project
     Urban area              City centre
                                                                                                settlement
     (continuous & over      Inner urban
     20,000 population)                                                                         pattern
                             Suburban                                                          (text book version)
                                                        Rural-urban-region
                                                F                                      
                                                                                                                     Source:
                                                                                                                     UOM, ZALF, MRI
                                                                                                                                              25
       The first and foremost problem in peri-urban de-                                   The rural-urban region
velopment is urban sprawl, which is generally seen as a
 land use pattern with lower density, inefficient land                                    method and typology
 use, car dependency and other characteristics. But
 many questions arise, e.g. which scale or spatial unit is                                RUR Typologies for Europe
 to be used? Is an airport or industrial complex to be
 defined as urban sprawl or economic development? A
 more technical definition singularises low values in
 one or more of eight factors: density, continuity, con-
                                                                                     A     technical analysis of peri-urban patterns and
                                                                                           changes needs to take into account the context
                                                                                     of the surrounding rural-urban region (RUR) from
 centration, clustering, centrality, nuclearity, mixed uses                          analytical and functional aspects. This requires a
 and proximity (Galster et al., 2001). In simple terms, we                           physical delineation of the rural-urban regions
 use two definitions for sprawl: ‘unplanned incremental                              (RURs) into their respective sub-areas, while the ex-
 urban development characterised by a low density mix                                ploration of peri-urban issues across Europe requires
 of land uses on the urban fringe’ (EEA, 2006) and also;                             a simple typology. Such a typology was developed in
‘low density, scattered urban development, without sys                              PLUREL with certain assumptions: (1) that the RURs
 tematic large scale or regional public land use planning’                           would cover all of the EU-27, (2) RUR boundaries
 (Bruegman, 2008: p18; Reckien and Karecha, 2007).                                   would be compatible with NUTS3 sub-region bound-
       There is a range of other problems examined in                                aries so that EUROSTAT data is available, (3) and that
 this report, each stemming from ‘peri-urban develop-                                the RUR typology would be practical to calculate,
 ment’ or ‘peri-urbanisation’. This is a quite flexible con-                         even with limited data availability.
 cept that relates to the conversion of urban or rural                                    The PLUREL method defined a total of 903 RURs
 areas into peri-urban areas as defined above. This con-                             for the EU-27. It also developed three different ways
version is often rapid and unpredictable. In countries                               to analyse urban–rural relationships and patterns:
 with weak spatial planning, it can result in a physical
 development which drives social and economic change.                                 Settlement morphology (based on the number
 On the other hand, social, economic and cultural                                       and size of urban centres);
 changes are also significant in countries with strong                                Development dynamics (based on core city dy-
 spatial planning that controls physical change.                                       namics versus peri-urban dynamics of growth
       Overall, the PLUREL project has developed a                                     and shrinkage);
 practical working method for defining the peri-ur-                                   Land use and population density. This typology
 ban and the rural-urban region concepts, as well as                                   provides a spatial definition of three types of ter-
 for investigating urban sprawl problems. This method                                  ritory within the RUR, namely urban, peri-urban
 became the basis for a more technical analysis as             Motorway M1, Dublin     and rural.
 described below.                                              county, Ireland
                                                                                     In the summary of this work, we focus on the third
                                                                                     method based on land use and population density.
                                                                                     This then applies to both lower and higher levels:
                                                                                          Lower level:
                                                                                          Area types within the
                                                                                          rural-urban region
26
                                                                                                          Figure 3:
                                                                                                          RUR subregion
                                                                                                          delineation
                                                                                                          baseline Situation 2001
RUR delineation
                                                                                                               0 – unpopulated
                                                                                                               1 – urban
                                                                                                               2 – peri-urban
                                                                                                               3 – rural
this application at a higher resolution scale for six ru-                                                      A simplified result for the entire EU-27 is shown
ral-urban regions: Manchester, Montpellier, Warsaw,                                                       in the ‘spatially explicit’ map of rural-urban regions,
Leipzig, Koper and Haaglanden. These regions have                                                         which depicts urban, peri-urban and rural areas in a
been the main case-study regions within the PLUREL                                                        1km2 grid resolution (figure 3). The borders of the re-
project. For each region, there is in-depth analysis                                                      gions are NUTSX, a unit which, in some countries,
that focuses on governance and spatial planning,                                                          refers to NUTS 2 regions and to NUTS3 regions in
combining stakeholder participation, policy analysis                                                      others (Renetzeder et al., 2006). This unit was chosen
and spatial scenario modelling (Pauleit et al., 2011).                                                    in order to achieve a more harmonised size of NUTS
 U_1: urban high density:           urban fabric class inside U_2                                                                                 Table 1: Rural-urban-
                                                                                                                                                  region area types
 U_2: urban low density:            urban fabric (without urban green, industry) and population > 20.000
 P_1: peri-urban high density: population density > 75 inhabitants/km2 or population > 10.000 and inside P_2
 P_2: peri-urban low density: population density > 40 inhabitants/km2 and adjacency to the U_2 sub-region
 R_1: rural high density:           population density > 10 inhabitants/km2
                                                                                                                                                  Table 2: Summary
 R_2: rural low density:            population density > 0 inhabitants/km2                                                                        of baseline data
                                            total artificial    total land area    proportion of     Residential              overall     residential density     proportions of
                                            surface area       (surfaced + non-   surfaced / total   population            residential    on artificial surface    population
                                                (km2)              surfaced)         land area       by area type        density (persons    (persons per
                                                                                                      (millions))           per km2)           hectare)
                                                                                                                                                                                 27
                                                                                                Figure 5: Hot spots of peri-urbanisation
28
Figure 6: nUTSX regions in the eU-27 with an above average share pf urban, peri-urban and rural areas
                           regions within Europe. All EU-wide databases and               Where are the hot
                           indicators used in PLUREL have been calculated on              spots of peri-urbanisation
                           NUTSX, based on available NUTS2 or NUTS 3 data.                in Europe?
                                The totals for artificial surfaces, areas, popula-
                           tion and densities in each of the area types of urban,
                           peri-urban and rural are shown in table 2.                T    his method allows us to identify the ‘hot spot’
                                                                                          regions where peri-urban land uses and densi-
                                                                                     ties are the most widespread in Europe. Figure 5
                                Higher level: Comparitive                            shows the hot spots classified by the proportion of
                                analysis across the EU-27                            peri-urban built development, i.e. ‘artificial surface’.
                                                                                     These are mainly concentrated in the central ‘Penta-
                                                                                                                                           29
                The dynamics of the peri-urban:
                Global change and regional response
30
31
      Dynamics and                                                                         Direct urban
      driving forces                                                                       expansion
Population Housing
 Economic growth:
 household affluence     Economy         Employment                        Labour market growth &
 property market                                                           specialization: expanding
 dynamics                                                                  location choice
32
                                larger and more specialised labour markets are         Spatial planning policy may aim to manage or
                                enabled by peri-urban development and road-             contain growth in larger cities, smaller cities and
                                based mobility;                                         towns, or smaller rural settlements, or allow a
                               Employment and occupation patterns also affect          free market;
                                the trends of peri-urbanisation. For example, the      Behind formal spatial planning policy is a less vis-
                                spread of teleworking in the service industries         ible ‘regime effect’ from the system of property
                                can encourage out-migration to peri-urban or            rights, land markets, patrimony and inheritance.
                                rural areas;
                               Business technology will affect not only employ-      Rural development and landscape quality have tra-
                                ment, but also supply chain logistics, as well as     ditionally been on the receiving end of urban expan-
                                the distribution of production, services and con-     sion. This may be changing however, with environ-
                                sumption;                                             mental effects on property values, new rural
                               Peri-urban development is shaped by the prop-         economies and new urban systems for food and
                                erty market. High value housing will tend to be       other resources. The dynamics of change are there-
                                located in high quality environments and segre-       fore complex:
                                gated from other social groups. Meanwhile, there
                                emerges many peri-urban social housing estates         Agriculture, particularly driven by the CAP re-
                                with multiple problems.                                 forms relating to intensive or extensive produc-
                                                                                        tion, is a major influence on land use change;
                              Environmental dynamics are varied, but it seems          Biodiversity and habitat protection is a direct
                              that climate change effects will dominate peri-urban      policy choice that may aim to take parts of the
                              development for the foreseeable future:                   peri-urban area out of urban development;
                                                                                       Rural economic development trends are also
                               Climate change impacts include sea-level rise           very sensitive to growth pressures and policy
                                  and fluvial flooding, extreme storms and heat         agendas, as detailed in the next section.
                                  waves, soil erosion and habitat change;
                                 As a result of climate change, urban environ-            Agglomeration effects
                                  ments are likely to become more unpleasant and
                                                                                      T
Soil sealing is expected to
increase nearly four times
                                  hazardous, which then encourages further out-            he urban expansion scheme outlined above is not
faster in peri-urban areas        migration to more liveable peri-urban areas;             a one-way process: it also generates responses
than in urban areas              Water resource issues will meanwhile put pres-      and changes in the surrounding areas that start to
                                  sure on peri-urban development, particularly in     amount to a ‘regional agglomeration’ effect. This is
                                  arid climates and/or areas vulnerable to flood-     where the focus of attention shifts from a free-stand-
                                  ing;                                                ing city in rural surroundings towards the wider com-
                                 Renewable energy sources such as biomass are        munity of interconnected and multilayered settle-
                                  often sited in peri-urban areas, and may start to   ment forms. The result is that, for the majority of
                                  influence the pattern of development;               residents, previously separate peri-urban areas de-
                                 Urban infrastructure such as waste and sewage       velop into continuously functional, but low density,
                                  treatment is usually in peri-urban locations.       cities for most forms of living, working and shopping.
                                  However, new concepts in recycling and ‘zero-       The process is described by Soja (2000): restructuring
                                  waste’ may change this.                             of the urban economic base; formation of a global ur-
                                                                                      ban system; restructuring of urban form and land use;
                              The urban development regime, housing markets           restructuring of the urban social pattern; formation of
                              and investment cycles, housing design and layout        the ‘carceral’ city and an ‘archipelago’ of enclaves; and
                              are all linked to the growth and pattern of peri-ur-    finally, new types of urban images and cultures that
                              ban development:                                        are powerful dynamics in their own right.
                                                                                            In practical terms, there are strong incentives
                               Transport and communications are central to           for peri-urban locations for retail markets, labour
                                  the peri-urban agenda. Access to networks or in-    markets or logistics hubs. A firm looking for a large
                                  frastructure can enable and encourage in/out-       new site will often prefer a peri-urban location
                                  migration, counter-urbanisation, or re-urbanisa-    which is accessible (generally by road) and serves a
                                  tion;                                               larger population from several urban areas.
                                                                                                                                            33
     Structural dynamics                                     peri-urban as a relationship of dependency and colo-
     and transitions                                         nisation, and as a new kind of urban hinterland and
                                                             service zone. There is also a powerful discourse on
                                                                                           Figure 8:
                                             High land-use                                 Peri-urban paradigms –
                                             intensity
                                                                                           quantity vs. quality
                                                             
                        
                                             Low land-
                                             use intensity
34
Coexistence: Alternative   is a different task to managing linear systems, and         High or low land use intensity, e.g. the amount
trailer commune next to    that governance itself needs to evolve along with its        of area demanded for each unit of housing or
town house. berlin,        territory. However, there is also a ‘de-territorialisa-      business. This factor could be further analysed in
germany, 2010
                           tion’ effect, where the urban social-economic order          terms of economic intensity, value or production,
                           is ‘splintering’ into globalised networks and discon-        or social intensity in terms of welfare measures.
                           nected from the local (Graham and Marvin, 2001).             Environmental land use intensity is also relevant,
                           This is seen clearly in some peri-urban areas that           where the urban system demands land for eco-
                           lack the traditional patterns of settlement hubs and         system services, material supplies, waste man-
                           meeting points, and instead form a diffused net-             agement, leisure and amenity. The land use in-
                           work of ‘spaces of flows’ with ‘landscapes of power’         tensities are normally assumed as on a growth
                           that are shaped by global images and consumption             trajectory that is similar to that of economic GDP.
                           aspirations (Zukin, 1998).                                   In the scenario modelling (next section), land
                                                                                        use intensity is assumed to be correlated with
                                Governance and                                          economic growth and capital investment;
                                policy responses                                       Strong or weak spatial governance. This ranges
                                                                                        from active and coordinated spatial planning
                                                                                                                                         35
                              Scenarios and
                              modelling
                                                                                                        Scenario method
Figure 9: PLUReL Scenario framework                                                                     and framework
                                                                                                   T
                                         Private enterprise /
                                                                                                        he dynamics of peri-urbanisation, as outlined
                                         economic values
                                                                                                        above, are complex, multilevel and beyond the
                    A1 – ›Hyper-tech‹                   A2 – ›extreme water‹
                    (High GDP growth)                   (High GDP growth)                          capacity of any single technical modelling system.
     global /
                    Shock – rapid                       Shock – climate /
                                                                                      Regional /   So it is essential to work with scenarios. These can
                    technology advance                  water crises
     macro &                                                                          local &      combine technical analysis and modelling with
     top-down                                                                         bottom up
     dynamic                                                                          dynamic
                                                                                                   other non-technical kinds of social, cultural and po-
                    b1 – ›Peak oil‹                     b2 – ›Fragmentation‹
                    (Low GDP growth)                    (Low GDP growth)                           litical changes. Such scenarios are most effective
                    Shock – peak oil &                  Shock - social exclusion,                  when they include a creative set of stories, models,
                    energy price                        enclaves
                                                                                                   images and visions. PLUREL developed a scenario
                                                                                                   framework, based on the IPCC (Inter-governmental
                                                                                                   Panel for the Scientific Assessment of Climate
                                                                                                   Change) report ‘SRES’ (Special Report on Emissions
Figure 10: PLUReL Scenario images                                                                  Scenarios) (IPCC, 2001). This framework included:
                                         Private enterprise /
                                         economic values                                            Applying the global level scenarios to the Euro-
                                                                                                       pean level up to the years 2025 and 2050;
                                                                                                    Developing and exploring a series of plausible
                                                                                                     ‘shocks’, i.e. rapid and important changes that
                                                                                                     bring current trends into sharp focus;
                                                                                                    Particular focus on the implications for urbanisa-
                                                                                                     tion, peri-urbanisation, and peri-urban land use
 global / macro &                                                            Regional / local &
                                                                                                      change.
 top-down dynamic                                                            bottom up dynamic
                                                                                                   The scenario framework includes four main types
                                                                                                   (with references to the A/B/1/2 of the IPCC report)
                                                                                                   (figures 9 and 10):
36
     A1 – high growth scenario (‘Hypertech’)                                 B1 – energy crisis scenario (‘Peak oil’)
... a future world of rapid economic growth, global population that    … a future of environmental and social awareness – a global ap
peaks midcentury, and the rapid spread of more efficient tech        proach to sustainable development, involving governments, busi
nologies. Investment in research and development is high, and na      nesses and households. Economic development is more balanced,
tions share knowledge and pool resources in a global market place.     with investment in resource efficiency, social equity and environ
Energy prices decline as supply is driven by new renewable and nu     mental protection. Population levels are relatively stable. The ‘shock’
clear energy sources. The ‘shock’ concerns the rapid acceleration of   in this scenario is driven by the early arrival of ‘Peak oil’, i.e. a decline
ICT, which transforms home and work. The effect on the periurban      in global oil production and rapid rises in energy prices, with many
is to accelerate outmigration and counterurbanisation, so that       social and economic effects. The periurban agenda here is domi
large areas become ‘periurban/perirural’. These see extended net    nated by the rising costs of carbased settlement patterns. There is a
works of settlements, serving affluent knowledge workers in flexi     return to cities and consolidation of rural towns. Many periurban
ble employment with digital connections to the global urban sys       areas are depopulated and returned to lowenergy farming.
tem.
                                                                             B2 – social fragmentation scenario
     A2 – climate change scenario                                            (‘Walls and enclaves’)
     (‘Extreme water’)
                                                                       ... Europe sees a fragmentation of society in terms of age, ethnicity
… a more heterogeneous world of selfreliance and local identity.       and international distrust. The elderly are increasingly dependent
While the population increases, economic development is region         on the younger generation, migrant workers undercut each other,
allyoriented: economic growth and technological change are             and there are intergenerational and interethnic conflicts. The ‘shock’
slow and fragmented. The ‘shock’ here is subtitled ‘Extreme water’,    then accelerates this process of fragmentation and segregation of
and this sees the rapid onset of climate change effects – flooding,     different communities. Cities become more dispersed as younger
drought, storm and a sealevel increase. The effect in the typical     migrants dominate city centres, and older natives populate the out
periurban area is constrained development, uneven growth and          skirts and enclaves outside the cities so that the periurban becomes
uncoordinated sprawl without the affluence to compensate.             more like ‘perisociety’.
                                                                                                                                                  37
     These scenarios were used at the EU level to
                                                                               Figure 11: Comparison of scenario average for population,
model the effects on land use of economic                                         Comparison  of scenario  average for population, GDP and built development
                                                                               gDP and built development
growth and development combined with demo-                               250
                                                                         250
graphic change. Details of the modelling method
are described in the Annex. The scenarios were                           200
                                                                         200
also used in regional case studies together with
stakeholder input on social and cultural trends,                         150
                                                            1990 = 100
                                                                         150
                                                               = 100
as well as their implications for governance.                                                                                                                                           population
                                                          1990
                                                                         100
                                                                         100
     European-wide scenario projections                                                                                                                                                 GDP
                                                                         50
                                                                          50
Europe. In the post-war period, European cities population gDP artificial surface
38
                            Figure 12: Artificial surface growth – A1 scenario
               300000
               250000
area in 1000 km2
200000
150000
100000
50000
                       Scenario A1                                                                                                                                   Scenario A2
                       2000 – 2025                                                                                                                                   2000 – 2025
                       Difference to                                                                                                                                 Difference to
                       baseline in %                                                                                                                                 baseline in %
                               0 – 1o                                                                                                                                      0 – 1o
                            > 10 – 20                                                                                                                                   > 10 – 20
                            > 20 – 30                                                                                                                                   > 20 – 30
                            > 30 – 40                                                                                                                                   > 30 – 40
                            > 40 – 50                                                                                                                                   > 40 – 50
                            > 50                                                                                                                                        > 50
                            no data                                                                                                                                     no data
                       Scenario B1                                                                                                                                   Scenario B1
                       2000 – 2025                                                                                                                                   2000 – 2025
                       Difference to                                                                                                                                 Difference to
                       baseline in %                                                                                                                                 baseline in %
                               0 – 1o                                                                                                                                      0 – 1o
                            > 10 – 20                                                                                                                                   > 10 – 20
                            > 20 – 30                                                                                                                                   > 20 – 30
                            > 30 – 40                                                                                                                                   > 30 – 40
                            > 40 – 50                                                                                                                                   > 40 – 50
                            > 50                                                                                                                                        > 50
                            no data                                                                                                                                     no data
                                                  Souce: University of Edinburgh, Austrian Institute of Technology
                                                                                                                                                                                     39
Figure 14: Changes in total nUTSX Population
                                               Scenario A1                                                         Scenario A2
                                               2000 – 2025                                                         2000 – 2025
                                               Difference to                                                       Difference to
                                               baseline in %                                                       baseline in %
                                               Scenario b1                                                         Scenario b2
                                               2000 – 2025                                                         2000 – 2025
                                               Difference to                                                       Difference to
                                               baseline in %                                                       baseline in %
The second set of model results, depicted above in Fig-      Overall, the scenario modelling shows some signifi-
ure 14, shows the projected population development.          cant results:
 In scenario A1, the strongest growth combina-               Population growth rate. Most scenarios show a
  tion (population/artificial surfaces) is almost              strong contrast between growth in the western
  continuous from Portugal to Sweden. However,                 regions and the Mediterranean sunbelt, and con-
  parts of eastern Europe are still experiencing de-           tinuing decline in central and eastern Europe;
  population and shrinkage.                                   GDP growth rate. Most scenarios show very
 Scenario A2 shows a more mixed picture, but                  strong growth in eastern and south east Europe,
  there is still combined growth over most of the              and some in the more remote regions of Spain,
  Mediterranean region.                                        Ireland and northern Sweden. In the B1 and B2
 In scenario B1 and B2, by contrast, the areas of             scenarios, most of the core regions show less
  shrinkage and low growth extend right across                 than 2% growth (except for Benelux).
  the core regions. Even in affluent countries such           Artificial surfaces. Scenario A1 shows the ex-
  as France, the UK and Germany, there are large               treme case where most of the core regions show
  areas where urbanisation will slow.                          over 10% growth in surfaces by 2025. By contrast,
                                                               the scenario B2 shows a development retreat
                                                               back to the main city and capital regions in most
                                                               countries.
40
                              Conclusions
                                                                                                                                  41
42
PERI-URBAN
AGENDAS
             43
                Economy and
                employment
The situation
44
                             Economic development:
                             construction of a 100
                             million Euro motorway-
                             based logistic centre
                                                                                                     45
                                                                                                     cially those situated along the European Union’s
Figure 16:›Economic & employment dynamics in the peri-urban                                          eastern borders. Low overall population density, dis-
                                                                                                     persed and functionally disintegrated settlement
                                                                               Key impacts
                     Key driving forces                                                              networks in these areas are among the factors re-
                 Finance & property                                         Existing workforce       sponsible for an insufficient level of investment ac-
                 development                                                marginalized
                                                                                                     tivity and a limited degree of participation in physi-
              Globalized firms &                                         Decline of traditional
              workforce                                                  centres                     cal modernisation and economic development
          Expanding workspace                                      Housing vulnerability             processes.
          & ICT effects
                                                                                                           Nevertheless, the peripheral rural regions ben-
      Occupations & career                                      Dependence on
      changes                      New employment &             fossil fuels                         efit from a number of unique assets related to the
                                   investment in peri-urban
                                                                Economic
                                                                                                     natural environment and cultural heritage, the po-
     Global investment             business locations
     focused on CBD &
                                                                modernization &                      tential of which is only partly utilised. At the same
                                                                restructuring in
     peri-urban                                                 rural areas                          time, these assets may in certain instances hinder
     business locations
                                                                                                     economic expansion by restricting the scale and
                                                                                                     scope of infrastructural investments (figure 16).
                                                               Emergence of peri-urban
                                                               as new enterprise &
                                                                                                          The future
                                      Re-investment &          employment activity zone
                                      regeneration in
                                      CBD & inner areas
  Globalizing Low-cost
  CBD
                          Service worker Enterprising, high Urban view - attractive leisure
              labour pool home base in value, connected hinterland. Rural view -
              inner areas suburbs        peri-urban         productive economic zone                 T    he future evolution of land use and its economic
                                                                                                          aspects in European rural-urban regions is a func-
                                                                                                     tion of general development trends that can, to a cer-
Source: UOM
                                                                                                     tain degree, be corrected or modified by public policy.
                                                                                                     Various combinations of possible trends, of the im-
                                                                                                     pact of new external factors (such as climate change)
                                                                                                     and policies, give rise to alternative development sce-
                                                                                                     narios. Policies that influence territorial development
                                                                                                     patterns are both of explicitly spatial as well as secto-
                                                                                                     ral character. An important role is also played by mid-
                                                                                                     and long term corporate policies, especially in such
                                                                                                     territory-relevant fields like the energy sector.
                                                                                                           The interdependence between economic and
                                                                                                     land use change has been projected into the future
Figure 17:
GDP/ capita potential                                         Quotients                                                                           Quotients
Scenario A1, 2025                                             (EUR per capita)                    Scenario A2, 2025                               (EUR per capita)
                                                                  no data                                                                             no data
                                                                  7658                                                                                6922
                                                                  13078                                                                               11905
                                                                  19393                                                                               17785
                                                                  28235                                                                               25596
                                                                  42238                                                                               38585
                                                                  59486                                                                               46442
                                                                  77389                                                                               55009
                                                                  92781                                                                               70094
                                                                  117878                                                                              83855
                                                                  153269                                                                              108627
                                                                  175127                                                                              139243
                                                                  211437                                                                              166155
                                                                  238162                                                                              195466
                                                                  490622                                                                              454587
Source: PAS
46
according to four alternative development scenarios,                     infrastructural projects that have a major impact in
as defined earlier in this document (Korcelli and Ko-                    this respect, such as high-speed railway networks,
zubek, 2010). This projection extends until 2025. As                     require long planning and implementation periods.
indicated above, the highly urbanised areas, those                       The past and current trends allow us to anticipate a
with a high share of artificial surface in the total land                gradual convergence of basic economic indicators at
area, are generally characterised by relatively high                     an international scale, and the persistence, if not an
gross domestic product (GDP) per capita values, as ex-                   increase, of interregional economic disparities. At an
pressed in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This                     intraregional scale, relations between urban, peri-
association continues throughout the projection pe-                      urban and rural zones of rural-urban regions may
riod. However, the distribution of projected GDP val-                    evolve in alternative directions. As it is generally ex-
ues increases while becoming less distorted (figure                      pected, the metropolisation process which is fuelled
17). The share of spatial units characterised by values                  by globalisation will continue over the next few dec-
above the mean indicator value tends to increase.                        ades. However, the concentration of people and eco-
This suggests a growth of territorial cohesion levels in                 nomic activity in metropolitan areas cannot last in-
the future. Interestingly, differences between the four                  definitely. It is appropriate at this point to refer to
alternative scenarios are not pronounced in this re-                     the so-called counter-urbanisation phenomenon,
spect. Similar results pertain to projected changes of                   which appeared rather unexpectedly and prevailed
employment and its sectoral composition.                                 in western Europe and north America during the
      Figure 18 shows the projected change in em-                        late 1970s and the early 1980s. This phenomenon
ployment in the service sector within the time span                      was marked by a turnaround of earlier, long term
2000 – 2025 for the four scenarios. While in rather                      migration, as well as regional economic develop-
remote regions of Europe (eastern Scandinavia,                           ment trends. What are the factors or circumstances
Hungary, and certain regions in central and northern                     under which a similar trend reversal could occur in
Spain) strong reductions will occur, working places                      the future, causing the growth of medium-sized and
in the service sector in other regions will boom, such                   smaller towns situated at some distance from the
as in all coastal regions, large parts of UK and nearly                  metropolitan centres at the expense of major urban
the complete area of Poland. As with GDP projec-                         and peri-urban areas?
tions, employment projections also do not reveal                               Four such factors can be identified here. The
distinct differences.                                                    first one, which is rather conventional, refers to
      As the results of the scenario analysis indicate,                  growing dysfunctions of large urban concentrations.
the time span of 15 years until 2025 may not be a suf-                   At a certain point, spatial concentration of popula-
ficiently long period to envision radical changes in                     tion and economic activity in metropolitan areas re-
territorial patterns in Europe at a macroscale. Major                    sults in an increase of their functioning costs above
                                                 Quotients                                                         Quotients
Scenario B1, 2025                                (EUR per capita)   Scenario B2, 2025                              (EUR per capita)
                                                     no data                                                           no data
                                                     1595                                                              3518
                                                     25304                                                             27964
                                                     49013                                                             52410
                                                     72722                                                             76856
                                                     96431                                                             101302
                                                     120140                                                            125748
                                                     143849                                                            150194
                                                     167558                                                            174640
                                                     191267                                                            199086
                                                     214976                                                            223534
                                                     238685                                                            247978
                                                     262394                                                            272424
                                                     286103                                                            296870
                                                     309812                                                            321316
                                                                                                                                 47
                           the level of aggregate benefits. This critical level is         The fourth condition under which a reversal,
                           sensitive to technological and environmental              preceded be a slowdown of observed metropolisa-
                           change (energy cost, climate etc.), as referred to in     tion trends might take place, refers to the future
                           most of the general socioeconomic and spatial de-         course of economic globalisation.
                           velopment scenarios. The second factor, also exten-             The process of delocalisation – the transfer of
Typical conflict between   sively called upon in scenario analyses, concerns         industrial production to low-cost countries – is grad-
grown structures and       growing social and spatial fragmentation of metro-        ually extended to the service sector, which includes
new development
                           politan space, as brought about, to a large extent, by    technologically advanced and innovative activities.
strategies. Konstantin
                           the inflow of migrants from low-income countries,         As a result of this, the present economic base of ma-
Jeziora, Poland
                           and the expansion of the so-called inner-metropoli-       jor European metropolitan areas may become se-
                           tan periphery that is composed of districts scoring       verely affected. In the future, Europe’s competitive
                           low on the scale of both social and physical indica-      position on the global scale may increasingly de-
                           tors. This process may again cause a shift in the bal-    pend on her globally unique, cultural and historical
                           ance of attractiveness in terms of both living condi-     heritage assets, the domain in which the network of
                           tions and the location of modern economic activities,     medium-sized and small towns occupies a particular
                           in favour of medium-sized and smaller towns situ-         place.
                           ated in lower population density regions at the cost            The Konstantin-Jeziorna case in the Warsaw
                           of large urban and peri-urban areas.                      Metropolitan Region illustrates conflicts between
                                 The third factor pertains to the process of pop-    the local authority, or the local community, and
                           ulation change and its implications for spatial mo-       owners of an industrial plant – a paper products fac-
                           bility, including migration propensities. The continu-    tory. The factory was built in the 18th century, and a
                           ing population outflow, from rural areas and smaller      part of it is under conservatory supervision owing to
                           towns to large urban areas, accelerates population        its historical and architectural values (see photos).
                           ageing in the former areas, thus reducing their total     This year, the present owners – a Finnish industrial
                           out-migration potential. Conversely, the accumula-        conglomerate – decided to discontinue operations
                           tion of relatively younger populations in large cities    until 2012 and move production to a new location.
                           and peri-urban zones implies higher migration lev-        This decision created major difficulties for the local
                           els. One part of this migration flow is interurban as     authority, as the plant had provided a part of the
                           well as international, while another part is oriented     town with electricity, heating and drinking water for
                           towards smaller towns and rural areas. At some            many years, and its sewage treatment plant had col-
                           point in time, the volume of migration flow may be-       lected sewage from the whole township. In the past,
                           come large enough to exceed the reverse stream.           the local government was not interested in assum-
Figure 18:
Changes in the number of                                                   Changes in the number of
emloyees in the service* sector                                            emloyees in the service* sector
                                             Scenario A1                                                                  Scenario A2
                                             2000 – 2025                                                                  2000 – 2025
                                             in %                                                                         in %
                                                 < = -50                                                                     < = -50
                                                 >    -50 – -25                                                              >   -50 – -25
                                                 >    -25 –    0                                                             >   -25 –   0
                                                 >     -0 – 25                                                               >    -0 – 25
                                                 >     25 – 50                                                               >    25 – 50
                                                 >     50                                                                    >   50
                                                 no data                                                                     no data
48
ing responsibility for the plant. Now it is no longer         their cultural and historical heritage assets. These
for sale. The township is presently facing the prob-          globally unique assets may help to preserve the
lem of finding an alternative solution with all the           competitiveness of European space in the long term.
associated costs and delays involved.                               Nevertheless, the balance between cohesion
                                                              and competitiveness-oriented policies may assume
                                                              various forms in different parts, or sub-regions, of
     Goals, objectives and                                    Europe. In the densely populated and heavily urban-
                                                                                                                                      49
               Population and migration
50
Societal diversity:
Stairs, La grande Arche,
La Defense. Paris, France
                            51
     CATEGORY   TYPE              MIGRATION CHARACTER                 LAND USE CHANGE CHARACTER                  LOCATIONS WHERE THIS CHANGE
                                                                                                                 TAKES PLACE
     1          Abandoned         Flow of young people to cities,     Land abandonment: fields lie               Eastern Europe (Baltics away
                rural             flow of working age people to       uncultivated, empty farms, forest          from main cities), parts of Poland,
                                  cities or abroad, older residents   colonising abandoned land, landscape       Bulgaria and Romania, Portugal
                                  left behind                         becoming progressively »wilder«.           and Spain, parts of Swiss, Austrian,
                                                                                                                 Italian and Greek mountains.
     2          Extensified       Flow of young people to cities,     Extensification of agriculture and         Eastern Finland, Eastern Germany,
                rural             general depopulation out of the     forestry: more land farmed by fewer        parts of Romania, Italy, central
                                  region.                             people, extensive modes of farming and     Sweden, Hungary, eastern France,
                                                                      industrial forestry. May be some tourism   Iceland.
                                                                      development in places.
     3          Stable rural      Slight increase in population but   Traditional farming continues or there     Western and northern Norway,
                                  low rates of migration, mostly to   is extensification in remoter places and   northern Finland, rural Ireland.
                                  urban centres within the area.      tourism development including holiday
                                                                      houses.
     4          Idyllic rural     Foreign migration into rural        Rural houses and villages are              Western and central France, Central
                                  areas by well-off people            regenerated and revitalised by foreign     and northern Italy, parts of Portugal
                                  from elsewhere in Europe or         incomers. Traditional rural landscape      and Spain, small trend in Greece,
                                  migration to remoter areas          is maintained or slightly extensified.     Romania and Bulgaria, northern
                                  within countries. Retirement        Tourism development also uses old          Scotland and parts of England and
                                  migration.
                                                                      settlement infrastructure.                 Wales.
     5          Intensive rural   Labour migration into               Areas where agricultural production        Eastern England, Netherlands,
                                  productive agricultural areas       and horticulture is economic but relies    southern Spain, Greece
                                                                      on low wages. Landscape covered
                                                                      by polytunnels and other modern
                                                                      technology of agriculture.
     6          Grey rural        International retirement            Ex-urban suburban developments along       Southern Spain, southern France
                                  migration from northern to          coastal areas, in association with golf    and Brittany, the Algarve in
                                  southern Europe                     courses and other amenities.               Portugal, Greek islands.
     7          Gentrified        Not strictly migration but          Villages close to large urban centres      UK, Ireland, southern Germany,
                rural             movement of better-off people       expand, new residential developments       southern Scandinavia, France,
                                  from the city to rural edge or      in rural areas within commuting            national or regional capital cities
                                  hinterland                          distance of the city. Urbanisation of      in most countries or economically
                                                                      rural areas (more roads, street lights)    developing cities in Eastern Europe.
                                                                      and local people priced out of the
                                                                      housing market.
     8          Dynamic           National migration from rural       Pressure on urban areas leading to         Cities in UK, France, central
                urban             to city, EU labour and non-EU       densification, reducing quality of some    Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands,
                                  immigration, intensive in scale     neighbourhood environments as well         Belgium, Scandinavia and other
                                  and multi-ethnic in composition     as urban sprawl. Ethnic composition        regionally dynamic areas
                                  in many places.                     of some urban districts changes, local
                                                                      population is displaced to the urban
                                                                      fringe.
     9          Stagnant          Moderate population change          Some decay of urban infrastructure,        Central Germany, parts of Eastern
                urban             from inward and outward             reduction in development pressures,        Europe, ex-industrial cities across
                                  migration, net effect being         increase in brownfield land.               Europe
                                  slight reduction in population.
                                  Some non-EU immigration
                                  substitutes for the loss of
                                  national population.
     10         Shrinking         Net out-migration from              Reduction in development pressure,         Eastern Germany, Baltics, regional
                urban             failing cities to other more        vacant housing in less-desirable areas,    cities in eastern Europe.
                                  economically active regions or      increase in brownfield sites.
                                  countries. May be in-migration
                                  at a rate that does not balance
                                  out-migration
52
              Table 7: Characteristics
              of European-wide
                                                  Migration from rural to urban areas is occurring in
                                                  eastern European and the Nordic countries, as well
                                                                                                                         The peri-urban issue:
              migration trends and
              related land use effects
                                                  as Portugal. Meanwhile, other countries are experi-                    Peri-urban population
              (Bell et al. 2010)                  encing counter-urbanisation away from urban to
                                                  rural areas, and this is carried out by those seeking
                                                                                                                         movement and land use
                                                  to achieve a better lifestyle in places such as the UK,
                                                  France, Spain and Italy. Urban growth, triggered by
                                                  migrants, affects low rent areas, leading to an in-
                                                  crease in multi-occupancy and densification. Coun-
                                                                                                                    U    rban areas are often the first target for labour-,
                                                                                                                         education- and refugee migration, bringing
                                                                                                                    about the need for more housing and workplaces
                                                  ter-urbanisation leads to the so called “gentrifica-              while making low rent urban quarters more densely
                                                  tion” – or social up-scaling – of the peri-urban areas            occupied and less attractive. The steady decline of
                                                  within the urban commuting zone, and sometimes                    urban environment quality makes people – mostly
                                                  to some repopulation of rural areas.                              child-rearing younger families who can afford big-
                                                        European labour migration from rural home-                  ger houses with gardens – move to quieter, green
                                                  lands in eastern Europe often targets prosperous                  suburbs (figure 19).
                                                  western European regions. Non-EU migration from                         This makes the peri-urban the second target for
                                                  Africa and Asia has an economic or political motiva-              migration, which in turn boosts the demand for
                                                  tion, especially among asylum seekers.                            housing and related infrastructure (e.g. schools, hos-
                                                        There are distinct migration patterns of certain            pitals, recreation facilities, retail centres and produc-
                                                  ethnic groups that target the former colonising coun-             tion sites) to supply the “new” peri-urban dwellers
                                                  tries including the UK, the Netherlands, France, Bel-             and the “traditional” urban population with goods
                                                  gium and, in the case of political and economic refu-             and services as well as additional workplaces. All
                                                  gees, Nordic countries and Mediterranean Europe.                  these activities produce additional traffic related to
                                                        International retirement migration has again                commuting and goods transport, which impacts the
                                                  very distinct patterns and distinct land use change               environmental quality.
                                                  effects outside the urban capital areas, with the                       This trend occurs all over Europe, with certain
                                                  suburbanisation of rural and coastal areas in Spain               hot spots in the east and peripheral regions in gen-
                                                  and Portugal being particularly large in scale.                   eral. The reasons are already addressed above: de-
                                                                                                                    clining birth rates, migration of the young, active
                                                                                                                    population and rural depopulation. Only some young
                                                                                                                    people (after finishing education) and a few workers
              Figure 19: Social & demographic dynamics in the peri-urban                                            return to their former home regions. This is counter-
                                                                                                                    acted in some places by retirement migration to rural,
                                  Key driving forces                                        Key impacts             affordable but attractive areas, or to the former home-
                              Ageing population
                                                                                     Existing settlement            lands. Therefore all rural, peripheral, economically
                                                                                     change
                                                                                                                    weak, often southern and eastern regions in Europe
                                                                                 Fragmented
                           Social mobility                                       communities                        have higher shares of retired people.
                       Household & family                                    Housing & service
                       changes                                               imbalance
                    Occupations & career
                    changes
                                                                          Commuting costs                                The future
                                                                                                                    T
                                         Migration of                                          Rural depopulation
                                         families & older                                      (some areas)             hese trends are expected to continue. Dynamic
                                         to peri-urban &
               International migration   rural
                                                                                                                        urban areas will attract more people expecting
               to inner & peri-urban                                                                                to find better jobs and/or receive a better education,
               areas                                                                          Emergence of
                                                                                              peri-urban as new     while rural peripheral areas will experience a further
                                                                                              living / working
                                                                                              environment           depopulation and social fragmentation. Urban cen-
                                                                                                                    tres will tend to experience opposing social transi-
                                                               Migration of younger &
                                                               professionals to urban                               tion patterns, in that highly educated, affluent socie-
                                                               centres                                              ties will be drawn towards attractive suburbs or city
                                                                                                                    centres while poorly educated, low income migrant
Source: UOM
                                                                                                                                                                          53
              age class distribution will be more evenly balanced
              than the rural one because of the in-migration from
              young people. Peri-urban areas will still attract more
              affluent families wishing to live in a green environ-
              ment that is inhabited by a younger population with
              a better level of education and higher incomes.
                   But these trends will be shaped by the various
              possible future scenarios in different ways. The four
              scenarios describe certain opposite conditions (see
              chapter 1) where the driving push and pull factors
              affect the migration patterns in different ways. The
              following overview describes the general implica-
              tions of the scenarios in terms of changes to migra-
              tion and land use:
              54
                                                                                              Goals and objectives
                              Figure 20 shows the population effects on peri-ur-
                              banisation for each of these scenarios. In general,
                              heavily declining peri-urban population shares are
                              either the outcome of declining regional develop-
                              ment or the product of fast urban growth overtak-
                              ing the peri-urban development. Stagnation, or
                                                                                         T   he major objective is to achieve a balanced pop-
                                                                                             ulation structure in terms of general population
                                                                                         distribution, including age structure and education,
                              moderate reduction, may be a positive signal for the       in order to promote social cohesion. Integrating the
                              effectivity of planning policies. An accelerated in-       youth as well as the elder generation is a require-
                              crease of peri-urban population shares is an indica-       ment on the way to achieving such a future. Further
                              tion of intensive peri-urbanisation.                       objectives are to protect green and open space in ur-
                                    The highest changes in peri-urban population         ban and peri-urban areas, to prevent environmental
                              shares can be found in central Europe, stretching from     disadvantages, and to establish attractive quarters
                              the UK to northern Italy and on to Poland and southern     for the local dwellers.
                              Greece. France, Spain, the northern countries and Bul-
                              garia show distinctly less fluctuation in peri-urban
                              population shares. Clear hot spots of growth and de-            Policy challenges
                              cline in an east-west/north-south divide are obvious.
                              In north eastern Europe (Finland, the Baltic States and
                              eastern Europe) the peri-urban population will decline
                              due to a general population decrease, which will in-
                                                                                         T   he basic policy targets are to manage growth
                                                                                             and control the decline of urban population in an
                                                                                         intelligent and inclusive manner. Well developed
                              crease the concentration of the remaining population       compact towns serving as sub-centres in the peri-
                              within urban centres. The coastal areas of southwest       urban may improve polycentric development and
                              Spain, France and also the UK are expected to experi-      avoid urban sprawl, as well as protecting the open
                              ence rapidly increasing peri-urban population shares.      space in a bid to support equity in the quality of life
                              In the A1 “Hypertech” scenario, those regions with al-     and fight social exclusion. Such appropriate meas-
                              ready high peri-urban population shares (UK, Benelux,      ures are the strict zoning regulations in the peri-ur-
                              southern Germany, Italy and some coastal regions in        ban, as well as the restructuring of urban low rent
                              southern Spain, France and Ireland) will also observe      areas. On the other hand, the economic vitality of
                              higher peri-urban population growth rates. The “oppo-      rural areas also has to be strengthened to encourage
                              site” scenario B2 “Social fragmentation” shows some        young people to return to and reinvigorate these areas.
                              additional regions with declining peri-urban popula-       The roots of policies that set out to achieve equal
Pull factor quality of
life: particularly families
                              tion shares (in the more peripheral regions of Portugal,   economic opportunities and social cohesions lie in
with children are settling    Italy, Greece, Poland) but also some regions with in-      education and the provision of basic infrastructure
in the peri-urban             creasing shares (coastal regions in France and Spain).     and cultural landscape protection.
                                                Scenario B1                                                                     Scenario B2
                                                2000 – 2025                                                                     2000 – 2025
                                                in %                                                                            in %
                                                                                                                                                55
                Housing and community
The situation
56
                                                   tres, preferring either prestigious apartment build-     one-person and single-parent households, the aver-
                                                   ings in the city centres or high quality suburban        age household size is declining, while the number of
                                                   apartments in green environments. Meanwhile,             small (one- to two-person) households is increasing.
                                                   families with children often try to settle in peri-ur-   The number of households with four or more people
                                                   ban green environments, where they occupy ter-           shows a further decrease, with some variation in
                                                   raced or detached houses if the commuting distance       certain countries and different shares in urbanised
                                                   to the urban centre is important. Households with        versus peri-urban regions. While in urban areas the
                                                   children and lower income, or those who do not           self-determined lifestyle trends started decades ago
                                                   commute, or who tolerate long distance commuting         and continue today, the population in rural areas,
                                                   to the urban centres, also settle for dwelling areas     adopting urban lifestyles, are also following the
                                                   located at a greater distance to the cities with         trend towards smaller household sizes.
                                                   cheaper lot prices but little infrastructure. More             Nevertheless, decreasing household size is not
                                                   households consequently demand more flats or             only a matter of lifestyle. Elderly people exhibit
                                                   houses, and thus more dwelling area.                     more widow households, which again increases the
                                                                                                            number of one-person households. Currently, dis-
                                                                                                            tinctly higher shares of older people are observed in
                                                        Household types,                                    central Europe – in large parts of eastern Germany
                                                        household size and                                  and in some parts of southern Europe, while Ireland
                                                                                                            and some northern (Finland, Sweden) and eastern
                                                        housing demands                                     European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slo-
                                                                                                            vakia) show smaller shares of aged people.
                                                   EUROSTAT records the average household size in Eu-
                                                   rope currently as 2.4 (data from 2004 – 2008), rang-
                                                   ing from between 2.1 in Scandinavia and 2.8 persons           The future
                                                   in traditional Catholic countries such as Malta, Slov-
                                                   enia, Ireland and Poland. As a result of better educa-
                                                   tion and higher female employment rates, such
                                                   populations exhibit more self-determined lifestyles,
                                                                                                            T   hese trends can be expected to continue into the
                                                                                                                future. Changing lifestyles will further acceler-
                                                                                                            ate an increase of household numbers with a corre-
                                                   which in turn result in growing household numbers        sponding demand for new dwelling areas. Growing
                                                   that are distinctly decoupled from population dy-        cities will attract more workers arriving without a
              Single family houses                 namics. Even areas with declining population show        family who then create one-person households. A
              are the peri-urban trend.            growing household numbers. As self-determined            sharp growth of higher education shares is expected
              Near Waren, Germany                  lifestyles result in fewer marriages, more divorces,     in Poland and Finland, while some regions in the UK,
                                                      Private car
                                                      access
                                                               Large private
                                                               gardens
                    Localized
                                                                               Globalized
                    employment
                                                                               employment
                                                                                                                                                              57
Figure 22: Changes in proportion of 1-person households
                                            Scenario A1                                                                  Scenario A2
                                            2000 – 2025                                                                  2000 – 2025
                                            in %                                                                         in %
                          the Netherlands, Greece, Ireland and some French         the peri-urban settlement area can be expected for
                          regions will show moderate growth. Growing retiree       the coming decades. The hot spot areas with the
                          numbers (in the urban as well as in the rural areas)     fastest peri-urban settlement growth will be ob-
                          will further increase the number of one-person           served in south England, Benelux, northern Italy and
                          households.                                              large parts of Germany (as outlined in chapter 1).
                               The trends may be influenced by different fu-       Moderate growth may occur in France, northern UK,
                          ture conditions as defined in the scenarios. The trend   central Europe, the eastern European capital regions,
                          variations will follow the variations of the popula-     and along the coastal regions of the Mediterranean
                          tion dynamics, while the influence of lifestyle on the   and southern Scandinavia. Changes of artificial sur-
                          household structure will appear to be stable.            face shares in the peri-urban will attract households
                                In general, the future trend scenarios predict     with a different floor space demand. The scenario
                          that peri-urban areas will experience specific dy-       maps above and below depict the regional differ-
                          namics in population movement and economic               ences in the change of household proportions occu-
                          growth. A certain variation of growth patterns of        pied by one individual and four or more people.
                                           Scenario A1                                                                   Scenario A2
                                           2000 – 2025                                                                   2000 – 2025
                                           in %                                                                          in %
58
                                             Scenario B1                                                            Scenario B2
                                             2000 – 2025                                                            2000 – 2025
                                             in %                                                                   in %
     Figure 22 shows projections of the relative            and some regions in Spain. However, scenario B2
change in the share of one-person households for            suggests less growth of one-person households as
the time span 2000 – 2025. The estimation of the            economic pressure compels families to live together
household numbers by household size is based on             in larger households. Scenario B1 (Peak oil) in con-
the GDP as an economic indicator, as well as on pop-        trast shows rather moderate changes.
ulation and settlement area distribution in the ur-              The projected change of the shares of larger
ban, the peri-urban and the rural areas within the          (four or more person) households is shown in figure
European regions. It is not possible to project the         23. The share will further decline, although less de-
number of these households for the entirity of the          crease is expected in the peri-urban. The bigger
EU-27 since certain explanatory variables are not           households will show distinct decline patterns in
available for regions in some countries.                    Central Europe (Austria, northern Italy, Czech Re-
     Scenario A1 indicates an expected increase in          public, Slovakia, Poland, Finland, the Netherlands,
the amount of one-person households, with hot               parts of the UK and Ireland, and regions in northern
spots in Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, Austria       Spain).
                                             Scenario B1                                                            Scenario B2
                                             2000 – 2025                                                            2000 – 2025
                                             in %                                                                   in %
                                                                                                                                         59
     Goals and objectives                                    Policy challenges
60
                       Mobility and transport
       <0
                                                                                    The situation
                                                                               T
       < 1.000 T
       < 2.500 T                                                                   he ultimate goal of a transportation system is to
       < 5.000 T                                                                   be highly accessible. Optimal accessibility is usu-
       < 10.000 T
                                                                               ally reached at densely built areas where destina-
       > 10.000 T
                                                                               tions i.e. workplaces, shops, services and activities,
                                                                               are all agglomerated. Urban sprawl and low density
                                                                               peri-urbanisation lead to longer commuting and
                                                                               higher emissions. It also tends to exclude low in-
                                                                               come earners and those without cars.
                       Source: AIT, applying data from CORINEAIR 2004                Mobility means actual physical movement in-
                                                                               cluding walking, cycling, public transit, car and other
                                                                                                                                    61
                                                                                                                                                       modes of transportation. Increased accessibility can
Figure 25: Transport, mobility & spatial dynamics in the peri-urban
                                                                                                                                                       be reached by improving the quality, capacity and
                                                         Key driving forces                                          Key impacts                       speed of the transport system. In peri-urbanisation,
                                                      Search for markets &                                        Transit decline & social
                                                      accessible locations                                        segregation                          the improvement of procedures related to transport
                                                Transport technology                                         Climate emissions &                       infrastructure reduces the environmental impacts,
                                                                                                             pollution
                                                & infrastructure                                                                                       but also encourages longer commuting. However,
                                           Socio-cultural role of                                        Commuting costs &
                                                                                                         car dependency
                                                                                                                                                       improvements for the car-oriented transport system
                                           mobility & cars
                                                                                                                                                       tend to increase vehicle-based mobility and thus
                                         Extension of daily                                                                                            emissions. Therefore, we need alternate ways to ob-
                                         use pattern to rural
                                         hinterland                           Orbital road network                                                     tain improved accessibility. Policies that support
                                                                              enables the emerging
                                                                              peri-urban ›archipelago‹
                                                                                                                                                       non-motorised transport modes, improve mobility
                        Extension of                                                                                  High speed links to              and incorporate more accessible land use patterns
                        commuting zone                                                                                centres & peri-urban
                        to peri-urban                                                                                 interchanges
                                                                                                                                                       are sustainable ways to increase accessibility.
                                                                                                                                                             The increased speed of automobile-dominated
                        Urban                                                                                                                          transport systems increases vehicle-based mobility
                        structure
                        shaped                                                                                                                         and creates pressure on the peri-urban use of land.
                                                                                                              Airport & related
                        by
                        transport
                                                                                                              development zone as primary              Increased numbers of potential destinations are
                                                                                                              hub in the peri-urban
                                                                                                                                                       available within the same allotment of time. As a
                                                                                                                                                       consequence, people are less likely to prefer local
                           Globally                     inner areas –    suburbs – potential peri-urban – potential        Rural hinterland
                           connected                    potential for    for multi-modal     for clustering to avoid       with few buses /            jobs if more distant jobs are otherwise more attrac-
                           CBD                          transit          integration         car-dependency                trains
                                                                                                                                                       tive. Particularly well educated members of the
Source: UOM                                                                                                                                            workforce seek job opportunities from specialised
                                                                                                                                                       regional employment markets. Urban sprawl ex-
                                                                                                                                                       tends the functional urban area into fragmented,
                                                                                                                                                       less accessible areas, which reduces the overall ac-
                                                                                                                                                       cessibility within the urban area (figure 25).
                                                                                                                                                             Monocentric and polycentric urban forms differ
                                                                                                                                                       considerably in terms of commuting patterns (fig-
                                                                                                                                                       ure 26). The monocentric urban form is an easier ob-
                                                                                                                                                       jective for the planning of public transportation,
                                                  Figure 26: Typical communiting curves for different types of
                                                  settlememt patterns in rural-urban regions                                                           whereas the dispersed form, in general, enforces car
                                                                                                                                                       dependency. In a polycentric structure, several desti-
                                          60%
                                                                                                    centre= circle with radius 10 km                   nations exist within the same distance. Commuting
                                                                                                                                                       patterns are more varied in such cases. A polycentric
                                          50%                                                                                                          structure may in theory minimise commuting costs
                                                                                                    In RUR typology very large
                                                                                                    *
                                                                                                    monocentric cities with over 3                     by shrinking the distance between settlement and
                                                                                                    million inhabitants                                employment. Sustainable polycentric urban struc-
                                          40%
                                                                                                                                                       ture requires a public transport network that can
                                                                                                    Large monocentric
                                                                                                                                                       manage commuting between several centres.
Probibility of commuting to the centre
62
     In the peri-urban areas, urban sprawl increases            When population growth is low, there is no huge
the variation of origins and destinations of journeys,    pressure on the peri-urban. Weak planning leads to un-
but decreases the choice of modal options. New pat-       controlled relocation of activities. The direction of in-
terns of settlement and employment require new            traregional migration is outwards from the main cen-
patterns of mobility and transport. Fragmented low        tre, which creates a more polycentric structure. Due to
density areas are by default car dependent. This          low population growth, land prices remain reasonable
poses a challenge for people who cannot drive or          in urban areas. Weak transport planning means that
can’t afford a car. The main challenge is to provide a    any increase in the proportion of the urban area will be
socially and environmentally sustainable transport        car dependent. Commuting patterns that have been
system that also ensures adequate accessibility for       oriented towards the main centre change into criss-
those without cars in peri-urban areas.                   cross patterns between several centres.
opment of a fast and efficient public transport sys-        planning policy types
                                                            and commuting types
tem. In monocentric cities, the functional commut-
                                                            in rural-urban regions
ing area extends via traffic corridors with rail
connection. Continuing growth with strong plan-
ning also changes the urban form towards a polyc-                     Strong planning
entric structure with strong public transport links
                                                                                           Suburban     Peri-urban    Suburban      Peri-urban
between nodes.                                                                             Monocentric with           Monocentric with fast
       When population growth is low, strong plan-                                         car transport              public transport
ning enables efficient reallocation of land uses, but
densities, especially in the peri-urban, remain low.                                       Commuting to the           Commuting to the
                                                                                           main centre                main centre
Peri-urban areas become car dependent. Strong
planning supports suburban public transport and                            Weak planning
discourages peri-urban commuting to the centre.
       Weak planning with high growth leads to ur-
ban sprawl and counter-urbanisation. Employment
relocates from the centre to the suburban, and set-
tlement spreads across the peri-urban. Peri-urban                                          Suburban     Peri-urban    Suburban      Peri-urban
long distance commuting increases, but a frag-                                             Polycentric with           Counter-urbanisation
mented structure does not support public transpor-                                         car transport              with long distance car
                                                                                                                      transport
tation. Most of the urban area is accessible only by
car.                                                        Source: SYKE                   Low growth                 High growth
                                                                                                                                                 63
      The distances between living quarters and
                                                            Figure 28: Systems of the urban structure
amenities tend to be longer in the peri-urban areas,
forcing people to travel. The travel requirement can
be limited with integrated transport and land use
planning. Higher densities and mixed land use mini-
mises the need to travel long distances between dif-
ferent areas of land use. Virtual interactions can also                                              
substitute physical travel. Technological solutions
                                                                                          Walking City
for teleworking and e-commerce are improving con-                                                          
tinuously. However, leisure trips increase the amount           Transit City                                 Car City
of total journeys made, which makes the objective
of reducing the amount of time spent travelling
even more challenging.
      Lower levels of car dependency can be achieved
                                                            Source: Leo Kosonen, Kuopio 07.04.2005
by increasing the share of public transportation. In
low density areas, regular public transport is usually
not profitable. Land use planning should be able to
create transit-oriented districts in the peri-urban. In
these areas, public transportation should be based on
a multimodal transportation system that connects
                                                                Policy challenges
various modes such as ‘park and ride’ facilities. Peri-
urban public transportation systems should utilise
existing local and regional rail and road connections
and generate transport corridors between cities.
                                                          T    he transport sector is facing a major challenge
                                                               in trying to meet the requirements for reduc-
                                                          ing greenhouse gas emissions. At a general level,
      High quality peri-urban public transport sys-       policies should concentrate on breaking down the
tems consist of a well planned network of routes          link between economic growth and an increase in
with timed connections between services. Time-            mobility, and support the urbanisation trend that
tables and ticket systems of different modes should       generates sustainable accessibility. Good accessi-
be synchronised. This requires the co-operation of        bility requires integrated land use and transporta-
different operators. Metropolitan train connections       tion planning.
with regional and local bus connections should be               Within the peri-urban areas, the main policy
coordinated at a strategic level where the whole          challenge is to provide multimodal accessibility
network is taken into account. It is also important to    and avoid car dependency. The question is how to
encourage passengers to accept transfer between           coordinate this and obtain investment for multi-
modes in multimodal systems. This is made easier if       modal transport options in a diffused and frag-
public transport is able to compete with car-based        mented peri-urban area, and also how to position       Commuters arriving
transport when comparing the amount of travel             urban developments and activities in the most ac-      on an early morning
time to the centre. When cars are the only solution       cessible locations in the peri-urban.                  train. London, UK
for transportation, environmentally friendly options
should be encouraged. This means the implementa-
tion of new technology vehicles with low emissions.
      Accessibility to the regional and urban trans-
port network is essential for rural communities (fig-
ure 28). In economic terms, the competitiveness of a
territory is determined by good accessibility. At an
individual level, accessibility is defined by available
opportunities for bridging distances. In both cases,
the transport system is vital for the cohesion of
functional regions. An integrated transport system
is a basis for social inclusion and cohesion in the
peri-urban area.
64
                Food and farming
The situation
                                           New markets:
                                           Horsification, nurseries
                                           New networks:
                                           Local markets, hobby farms, rural
                                           tourism, on-farm catering
                                                                                                                                      65
Table 8: Characteristics of
important agricultural regions
with peri-urban situation
                                                                            Peri-urban themes
                                                                            for agriculture: zoning,
                                                                            long term development
                                                                            perspectives, land
                                                                            prices, competition
                                                            in %                                                                  in Euro/ESU and ha
                                                                       0 – 20                                                            0 – 0,5
                                                                   > 20 – 40                                                         > 0,5 –    1
                                                                   > 40 – 60                                                         >    1 – 1,5
                                                                   > 60 – 80                                                         > 1,5 –    2
                                                                   > 80 – 100                                                        >    2
                                                                   other regions                                                     no data
                                                                                                                                     other regions
66
                                                             Regions where peri-urbanisation and agricul-
                                                       tural land use coexist are important, and are there-
                                                       fore worthy of a more detailed examination (figure
                                                       30). There are regions in Denmark, north western Ger-
                                                       many, the Netherlands and Belgium where the main
                                                       use of land is devoted to agriculture while also con-
                                                       taining an above average share of peri-urban areas.
                                                       This is also the case in large parts of Poland, the Atlan-
                                                       tic coast of France, eastern Italy, parts of Hungary and
                                                       the south of the United Kingdom. These regions can
                                                       be characterised according to table 8. Some are run in
                                                       a highly intensive manner, often with horticultural
                                                       production and high economic productivity (e.g. the
                                                       Netherlands, Denmark, Spanish and French Mediter-
                                                       ranean coast, as well as northern and southern Italy).
                                                       Other regions have a traditionally strong crop or
                                                       grassland production. The amount of part-time farm-
                                                       ing is used as a proxy indicator to assess the degree of
                                                       professionalism of farming. In southern Europe, part-
                                                       time farming is often connected to a breakdown of
                                                       the inheritance and patrimony system, and is there-
                                                       fore also a proxy for the ageing of farmers. High
                                                       amounts of part-time farming can even indicate an
                                                       increased likelihood to end farming activity entirely,
                                                       and for a region, a higher probability of structural
                                                       change in agriculture. In regions where low soil fertil-
                                                       ity and low farm productivity are also factors, such
                                                       assessments might indicate a likely increase in land
                                                       abandonment. A risk of sprawl due to low land prices
                                                       may also be applicable. In other more favourable con-
                                                       ditions, there are pressures to increase the size of
                                                       those farms that are remaining, or to increase the di-
                                                       versified multifunctional agricultural uses thereof.
                              in % of all farmers
                                  >   0 –     5
                                  >   15 – 30
                                  > 30 – 45
                                  > 45 –     0
                                  > 60
                                  no data
                                  other regions
                                                                                                              67
                    The future
                                                                                 seeking urban work places, will not only be a partic-
                                                                                 ular problem in remote regions, but also in peri-ur-
                                                                                 ban regions where better paid jobs are available,
               Figure 31:
               Changes in Agricultural Area
                                                                Scenario A1                                              Scenario A2
                                                                2000 – 2025                                              2000 – 2025
                                                                in %                                                     in %
                                                                   < = -5                                                   < = -5
                                                                   >   -5 – -4                                              >   -5 – -4
                                                                   >   -4 – -3                                              >   -4 – -3
                                                                   >   -3 – -2                                              >   -3 – -2
                                                                   >   -2 – -1                                              >   -2 – -1
                                                                   >   -1                                                   >   -1
                                                                   no data                                                  no data
Source: ZALF
               68
are particularly expected in rather extensively run,
predominantly mixed farming or grassland regions
in partially remote mountainous areas (Alpine re-
gion), or in east European regions with small scale
farming structures, such as the Baltic States and
northern Romania. The latter regions show an in-
crease of farm productivity that is independent of
the scenario. In peri-urban regions, the advantages
of technological progress within the Hypertech sce-
nario (A1) are more distinct than in the other sce-
narios. Innovations seem to be adopted more rapidly
and converted to a growth in farm productivity.
Among the peri-urban regions, those that are most
successful in strengthening the economic power of
the agricultural sector are expected to be able to
limit extreme losses of agricultural land, such as the
UK.
      Part-time farming will gradually be reduced all
over Europe at a similar rate that agricultural area is
also reduced (-1 to > -5%). This will be most prevalent
in regions with high amounts of peri-urban areas,
such as in southern Germany, the Czech Republic,
Austria, northern Italy and other regions which al-
ready today are characterised by highly professional
agricultural or horticultural use, such as in the south
of the UK, the Netherlands and southern France. In           For decades the Berlin
south and south east Europe (Italy, Spain, Hungary,          wall separated Gropius-
Romania and Bulgaria) where a high share of part-            stadt and the arable fields
                                                             in the south of Berlin.
time farming is traditionally typical, this strategy
                                                             After the reunification,
will likely be continued (except for a few regions in        urban planning kept the
northern Romania) and will occur regardless of               functional separation.
whether urbanisation pressures are high or low.              Berlin, Germany
                                               Scenario B1                                 Scenario B2
                                               2000 – 2025                                 2000 – 2025
                                               in %                                        in %
                                                  < = -5                                      < = -5
                                                  >   -5 – -4                                 >   -5 – -4
                                                  >   -4 – -3                                 >   -4 – -3
                                                  >   -3 – -2                                 >   -3 – -2
                                                  >   -2 – -1                                 >   -2 – -1
                                                  >   -1                                      >   -1
                                                  no data                                     no data
                                                                                                         69
                                  Goals and objectives
70
                             Policy challenges
                                                                                                                                   71
                           Environment and landscape
The situation
                                                                                                         Provision of
                                                                                                         drinking water
                                                                                                         and fresh air        Regional biodiversity
                                                         Growth of
                                                         artificial
                                                         surface                                                                      Soil protection
                                                                                                                                                        Source: UOM
72
indicates the probability of individuals meeting in a    Management of open                  Due to an economic requirement to increase ef-
landscape fragmented by infrastructure and settle-       landscapes providing          ficiency in production, farming and forestry, land use
                                                         important ecosystem           systems have become larger in size, and in so doing,
ments. Figure 33 shows the situation for this index in
                                                         services, such as water
the year 2000 within the EU-27. Not surprising, it is                                  have reduced the amount of marginal land. Further-
                                                         retention and reduction
observed that the index is closely related to the de-    of flood risks. Elbe river.   more, urban growth (following a very similar pattern of
gree of urbanisation, and also that mostly rural and     Germany                       sprawl) and ex-urban development have both contrib-
remote regions possess comparably large and con-                                       uted to a shrinking diversity and homogenisation of
tinuing habitats. Fragmentation is concentrated in                                     landscapes. The landscape structure has been spatially
central western Europe, where only small patches of                                    analysed based on landscape metrics, which give valu-
open landscapes remain. Low landscape fragmenta-                                       able insights in the intermixing, continuity and diver-
tion, in contrast, cannot only be observed in regions                                  sity of land cover at a landscape level, and has revealed
with low population density, but also in large parts                                   that urbanisation contributes to a greater evenness
of northern, eastern and southern Europe.                                              and a reduced continuity of the landscape.
                                                             >      0 – 250
                                                             >     250 – 500
                                                             > 500 – 750
                                                             >     750 – 1000
                                                             > 1000
                                                             no data
                                                         Source:
                                                         ZALF
                                                                                                                                             73
                              The future
74
with its impacts in many European regions like the         infrastructure, or the European Cohesion and
Mediterranean basin. There is a clear necessity to         Structural policy. Since environmental and land-
understand and sensibilise to the consequences of          scape issues and regional responsibility do con-
urban growth and to implement strategies if not to         tinuingly require attention in European spatial
reduce it, but at least to come up with solutions that     policy, it is recommended to both strengthen
will marginalise its negative effects. In the land-        this perspective and to raise awareness of land-
scape context, several development objectives can          scape impacts in European policy wherever it is
be drawn from this requirement.                            related to spatial development.
                                                          The regional focus: It is also advisable to inte-
 Efficient use of space and resources. Resource ef-       grate and commence dialogue with local and
  ficiency embraces smart growth, landscape                regional landscape initiatives, authorities and
  management concepts and solutions of densifi-            NGOs to make use of the endogenous knowl-
  cation in urban areas without reducing local en-         edge of the regional conditions. This supports a
  vironmental quality by reusing derelict urban            more regional perspective, which is then increas-
  land for urban development or renaturation.              ingly able to take the large regional variability of
 Preservation of valuable ecosystems and the              landscape into account. Secondly, by shifting the
  maintenance of their continuity and connectiv-           decision making capacity and responsibility to
  ity. Three ways of achieving this are, firstly, to       regional and local authorities, it is suggested
  bundle transportation infrastructure, secondly,          that funding (of the likes provided via the Euro-
  to concentrate in the urban area, and thirdly, to        pean Structural Funds) should be distributed to
  extend the flora-fauna-habitat network. Human            the lower administrative level. More generally,
  disturbance and urban growth in ecologically             the economic perspective of ecological and land-
  valuable landscapes should be reduced to an              scape topics requires reformation, since both
  unavoidable minimum.                                     topics suffer from monetary undervaluation. Fi-
                                                           nancial investments are necessary to comply
                                                           with European legislation and directives on envi-
     Policy challenges                                     ronmental quality (e.g. FFH, air quality, nitrate
                                                           balancing or water supply). Moreover, payments
 European Policies: It is highly advisable to review      for ecosystem services through the second pillar
   the impact of policies on ecological functioning        of the Common Agricultural Policy, as well as          Landscape
   in existing and implemented European policy             other sources, need to be expanded.                    fragmentation
   action, such as the Trans-European Network of                                                                  by railway
                                                                                                                                  75
                              Recreation and tourism
The situation
76
the green infrastructure, with its adjacency to and
accessibility from the inner cities, as well as its dense                          Figure 37: Urban Green Neighbourhood Index
allotment of leisure services and facilities. From that                                                                              Baseline Situation
perspective, peri-urban areas contribute eminently                                                                                   in 2000
Figure 36: Spatial dynamics of recreation &                                        Figure 39: Urban Growth in Alicante Region 1990 – 2000
tourism in the peri-urban
                                                                                                                                        New Urban
                                                                                                                                        Fabric Area
      1.
                                 2.
                                                                     Source: UOM
                                                                                                                                                          77
                                   The future
78
     Policy challenges
                                                                                                          79
               Managing Growth
80
       Potentials of government                                                             a) Typology of EU countries along
                                                                                            their formal government systems
       system and planning                                                                  and planning policies
       policies to control land                                                    The formal government systems and planning poli-
       use changes                                                                 cies differ substantially across EU countries. In order
                                                                                   to develop a typology based on the potential strength
                                                                                                                                                                81
                                        The typology has been used in PLUREL as a general                                  planning policies that give control functions to higher
                                        framework for the further analysis of the govern-                                  level governments over the plans of the local govern-
                                        ment and planning dimensions. More detailed in-                                    ments in the rural-urban region area.
                                        vestigations are performed in selected countries                                         The interplay of the government system and the
                                        which cover all the categories of the typology.                                    overarching planning policies shows the potential of
                                                                                                                           the public role to manage and control peri-urban de-
                                                b) Government and planning                                                 velopment. This can range from no management and
                                                in the rural-urban regions                                                 control (fragmented public administration and lais-
                                                                                                                           sez faire planning policies) to the maximum potential
Table 10: Classification of countries according to the rural-urban region level systems
  Strengths of control from             Size of the most important             Local level                            Countries
  supra-local levels of the             supra-local level
  planning system                                                              (average size of local
                                        (from land use change                  governments,
                                        perspective)                           ‘000 population)
82
Table 11: Strength of rural-urban region level public
control over land use changes
 Value Countries
 7     -
 6     Denmark, The Netherlands, Portugal,
       United Kingdom
 5     Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany,
       Greece, Ireland, Lithuania
 4     Italy, Spain, Sweden
 3     Austria, Bulgaria, Finland
 2     Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovenia
 1     Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia
      The rural-urban region level government and             allocated housing quotas and infrastructure, while       High density urban forms
planning systems show the strongest potential pub-            the local government, in two tiers, made local ‘devel-   restrict further growth of
lic control over land use changes in the north west-          opment frameworks’ and managed local decisions.          city centres
ern European countries, mostly because of their con-          This system is currently being altered.
solidated local government systems. On the other
hand, southern European countries which show
high potential, such as Cyprus, Greece or Portugal,                Financial, regulatory
have more fragmented local government systems,                     and policy instruments
but stronger control by supra-local levels. Most new
member states show a weak public control poten-                    for efficient public
tial, with the notable exception of Lithuania (where               control over peri-urban
the tradition of strong planning is based on the
presence of the former western Soviet planning in-                 development
stitutions) and Bulgaria (with a consolidated local
government system).
      The results indicate the strength of public con-
trol in the different countries through the national
                                                              T   he formal government system and planning
                                                                  policies assign the framework and the potential
                                                              level of public management and control over market
government and planning systems. However, these               processes. Within this, the real strength of public
values do not show the real strength of the public            control depends on specific factors influencing the
control over land use change, as in practice these            motivations of the government actors towards the
powers can be implemented in different ways. Thus             processes in the rural-urban region area:
these values should only be seen as a potential re-
sulting from the higher level government and plan-             The local government financing system (from
ning systems. Hypothetically, a weak potential con-             where and according to which parameters the
trol is hard to overcome even if the willingness of             local governments receive their revenues, and
the local partners is given, while a high potential             what are the spatial consequences);
may or may not be used entirely, depending on the              The taxation system (the different types of taxes
intentions of the public bodies in power in the rural-          local governments are allowed to levy, and the
urban region.                                                   spatially relevant consequences of these taxes);
      A more detailed analysis would highlight the             Sectoral (infrastructure, economic development,
developing complex multilevel governance and spa-               transport and housing) policies and subsidy sys-
tial planning practices. For example, in France the             tems.
SCOT planning system ensures a relatively high level
of public control. The UK practice was quite complex.         Among the regulatory tools, the public sector has to
The national government provided legal powers and             steer the land development process. The following
guidance, the regional government coordinated and             deserve most attention:
                                                                                                                                                83
 Regulations applied on new land use changes              Central business                      public sector to recapture some part of land
  and developments in general, such as sectoral            district, The Hague, the              value increase and require contribution from the
                                                           Netherlands, a PLUREL
  requirements attached to permitting larger de-                                                 private developer for infrastructure develop-
                                                           case study
  velopments (balance between jobs and homes,                                                    ment when the rezoning of land is allowed, or at
  transport services, physical and social infrastruc-                                            the moment when building permission has to be
  ture requirements) and financial regulations,                                                  issued for the planned project.
  such as taxes on green field investments and
  subsidies for brownfield redevelopment;                                                     The analysis of these factors requires more detailed
 Rules applied in the case of concrete decisions                                             investigations, which could only be performed for a
  on larger land developments. Possibilities for the                                          limited number of countries (covering all categories
84
of the government typology) represented by the ad-        a high probability for a more effective level of control
ministrative regions. The information gained from         over peri-urban land use. Manchester, Montpellier,
selected regions through a questionnaire has been         Leipzig and Bologna seem to be in a less favourable,
quantified, with the following results. Higher values     but still manageable, situation.
mean less interest/motivation for urban sprawl and/            Thessaloniki and Koper show a potentially strong
or more public control over it (Table 12).                hierarchical government and planning system,
     The results can be summarised and evaluated          while the municipalities are strongly interested in
along the three main topics of analysis (the rows in      expansion, which can lead to conflicts in the land
bold) in the following way.                               use decisions. Warsaw and Budapest have a much
                                                          weaker government and planning framework. These
 Regarding the local government financing sys-           municipalities are interested in expanding urban
  tem in some regions (Haaglanden, Manchester,            land use, and most sectoral policies also lead in this
  Montpellier and Bologna), the system does not           direction. In these regions, the public control over
  directly motivate the municipalities to increase        land use does not seem to be efficient.
  their population. On the other hand, in other re-            When comparing the results of the previous two
  gions (Leipzig, Koper, Warsaw, Budapest and             analyses, a relatively strong connection can be seen be-
  Thessaloniki) such motivations are created by           tween the national and regional levels of analysis. In
  the financing system.                                   countries with weak institutional and planning sys-
 Regarding sectoral policies, Haaglanden stands          tems, the regions face financial and sectoral policies
  out, since very few of its analysed policies have a     which usually create favourable conditions towards ur-
  sprawl-oriented territorial impact.                     ban sprawl. At the same time, local authorities in these
 Regarding the regulatory tools, in some regions         regions (with the notable exception of Koper, Slovenia)
  (Koper, Thessaloniki, Haaglanden and Leipzig)           have only very limited tools to control urban sprawl.
  the municipalities are equipped with a broad            Thus the public financial and sectoral policies are not
  range of tools that they can use to steer private       able to counterbalance the deficiencies of the formal
  developments.                                           government system and planning framework, and all
                                                          indicate the weakness of the public sector to control
To summarise, in the case of Haaglanden, a strong po-     market processes, leading to urban sprawl.                 Connecting spaces,
tential control can be seen parallel to moderate mu-           On the other hand, regions in countries with          functions and people.
nicipal interests to increase population. This suggests   high control potential show more diverse results. It       Venice, Italy
                                                                                                                                             85
is in Haaglanden, Manchester and Montpellier that        held by different urban and rural organisations. These
the potential for strong control given by the formal     can be businesses, such as developers and farmers,
government and planning systems seems to be ful-         but also residents associations, associations of own-
filled by financial policy and regulatory measures. In   ers (CSOs) or nature NGOs. Considering this interfer-
other regions, the regulations and tools do not seem     ence of different interests in the urban fringe that are
to fully match the potential these regions could         held by different interest groups (stakeholders) of
have in controlling peri-urban development.              state, market and civil society, the governance para-
                                                         digm and the policy network approach is the most
                                                         appropriate for studying their interactions to steer
     The governance aspects of                           developments in the urban fringe. This approach con-
     developing public control                           siders public policy making and governance taking
                                                         place in networks consisting of various actors.
     over peri-urban areas                                      A more detailed analysis in the PLUREL case
                                                         study regions has shown that the governance proc-
86
     Conclusions                                         especially if informal governance agreements can         Socialist satellite town.
                                                         also be reached among the partners.                      Bratislava, Slovakia
                                                                                                                                              87
     EUROPEAN
88
POLICY AGENDAS
             89
                Cohesion Policies
90
sion Fund form the support platform and contribute
                                                            Table 13: Indicative distribution of structural funds by type of area
to three objectives: Convergence, Regional Competi-
                                                            (in millions of Euros) in 2007-2013 (COM 2010b, adapted)
tiveness and Employment. The eligibility of projects
depends on whether programmes are designed for                                                              AREAS
regions under the “Convergence”, “Regional Com-                                                             ERDF       ESF             TOTAL
petitiveness and Employment” or “Territorial Coop-                                                                                Structural funds
eration” objectives. Accordingly, territorial cohesion        Rural areas                                   47,127    6,545            53,672
and regional policy allows for objective-oriented im-         Sparsely or very sparsely populated areas     7,860        3              7,863
plementation in defined target areas.                         Highlands                                     6,037      344              6,381
                                                              Islands                                        3,916     281              4,197
                                                              Outermost regions                              1,031    1,188             5,399
     Are peri-urban areas                                     Territorial co-operation areas
                                                                                                             9,441     162             9,604
     a topic for Territorial
                                                              (between several regions/countries)
                                                              Urban areas                                  99,261    9,706           108,967
     Cohesion policy?                                         Not applicable                               90,509    57,844           148,353
                                                              Total                                        268,361   76,073          344,435
T    he structural funds operate simultaneously in            % strictly rural areas                        17.6%     8.6%             15.6 %
     rural and urban areas. Therefore, peri-urban ar-         % rural areas (widest possible definition)    22.7%     9.1%             19.7 %
eas are also covered. According to EC statistics (Table       % urban areas                                 37.0%    12.8%             31.6 %
13), the distribution of funds available for the Cohesion
Policy 2007 – 2013, according to the type of area, is rd.
30% for urban areas and less than 20% for rural areas.      Within the EU-27, one region in four has a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per
       The analytical procedures developed and ap-          inhabitant under 75% of the EU-27 average. At the regional level, the difference
plied in PLUREL allow for a more specific analysis of       is even greater. The richest region is Inner London with 290% of the EU-27’s
peri-urban regions in this context. Figure 40 shows         per-capita income, while the poorest region is North-East in Romania with 23%
regions with an above EU-27 average of peri-urban           of the EU average. In the period 2007 – 2013, cohesion policy will benefit from
share within the NUTSX borders, which are recipients        35.7% of the total EU budget or 347.41 billion Euros. Division by objective is rd.
of the different types of structural funds. In Conver-       81.5% for Convergence
gence regions (e.g. Poland, Hungary, eastern Germany,        16% for Regional Competitiveness and Employment
northern Portugal and southern Italy) as well as in          2.5% for European Territorial Cooperation (CEC 2010b)
Competitive and Employment regions (England, Ben-
elux, south west Germany, Italy and French coastal
regions) there are many regions that have to deal           Figure 40: Cohesion Policy in Peri-Urban
with the typical problems of peri-urbanisation.             Regions 2007 – 2013
                                                                                                                              Peri-Urban Regions
                                                                                                                                 Competiveness &
                                                                                                                                 Employment
                                                                                                                                 Phasing-in
                                                                                                                                 Convergence
                                                                                                                                 Phasing-out
                                                                                                                              Other regions
                                                                                                                                 Competiveness &
                                                                                                                                 Employment
                                                                                                                                 Phasing-in
                                                                                                                                 Convergence
                                                                                                                                 Phasing-out
                                                                                                                                                91
                                What are the new challenges
                                of Territorial Cohesion?
92
      Does the peri-urban
      situation bring along
      additional challenges?
                                                                Figure 41: Situation in 2000, Competitiveness regions
O      ne of the main products of the EU project PLUREL         green: predominantly urban, blue: predominantly peri-urban,
                                                                red: predominantly rural regions
       research is a multiple scale and multiple purpose
tool for the integrated Impact Analysis (iIAT-EU) of ur-                                                      Social individualisation
banisation trends on land use functions (for more de-
                                                                                                                                    Unfragmented landscape
tails see the Annex). The iIAT-EU integrates all quanti-
                                                                 Less Heavy Metal Emissions
tative modelling results at EU-27 scale into one surface
                                                                                                                                             Unsealed soil
(Piorr et al., 2011, Haase et al., 2010). It permits the free
selection of indicators (which here are related to indi-
                                                                   Less CO emissions                             Social individualisation
cators relevant for the “new challenges” of Territorial                   Source: ZALF
Ageing
                                                                                                                                              Density of Natural
                                                                                                                                                                        Source: ZALF, AIT, PAS
                                                                                                                                              Habitats
                                                                        Employment industry
                                                                                                                                    Employment admin./finances
                                                                                                              Employment agriculture
Set 1 (Reference, 2000, n=147) Set 2 (Reference, 2000, n=97) Set 3 (Reference, 2000, n=83)
                                                                                                                                                                   93
     The potential of the                                    e
     peri-urban in meeting the
     new challenges
                                                                 Figure 43: Peri-urban Competitiveness regions
                                                                 green: baseline year 2000, blue: Hypertech scenario A1 year 2015,
F
                                                                 red: Hypertech scenario A1 year 2025
    igures 43 and 44 present, based on modelling re-
    sults, a look into a Hypertech future of the peri-
urban Competitiveness regions respective of Con-                                                                   Social individualisation
vergence regions. Ageing, social individualisation
                                                                        Less Heavy Metal Emissions                                 Unfragmented landscape
and GDP per capita are, in both cases, the indicators
that develop most dynamically. In peri-urban Com-
petitiveness regions, the trend shows continuously                     Less CO emissions                                                      Unsealed soil
Habitats
                                                                   Set 1 (High growth (hyper-tech), 2025, n=94)    Set 2 (High growth (hyper-tech), 2015, n=97)
                                                                   Set 3 (Reference, 2000, n=97)
94
                                                                                                                               How to best exploit
                                                                                                                               peri-urban potentials
                         Figure 45: Peri-urban POLAND in a hypertech scenario A1 year 2025
                         red: all NUTSX regions in Poland with above average share of peri-urban area,
                         blue: NUTSX region Lodzki, green: NUTSX region Gdansk-Gdynia-Sopot
                                                                                                                          I  n the future, territorial cohesion policy will in-
                                                                                                                             creasingly build upon good governance and local
                                                                                                                          empowerment. Programme design and selection
                                                                                                                          criteria for projects will become more targeted if
                                                                          Social individualisation                        they take the urban-rural relationship and the spe-
                                                                                                                          cific role of peri-urban areas more into account. The
                              Less Heavy Metal Emissions                                  Unfragmented landscape
                                                                                                                          PLUREL iIAT-EU, for example, can contribute to inter-
                                                                                                                          disciplinary discussion of regional situations and
                              Less CO emissions                                                      Unsealed soil        possible trends. Hence, it helps to support participa-
                                                                                                                          tory decision processes of policy makers and stake-
                                                                                                                          holders in ranking objectives and priorities. PLUREL
                               GDP per capita                                                           Aging             results underline the fact that within the territorial
                                                                                                                          borders covering eligibility regions, the differences
                                                                                                                          between regions are great.
                           Employment services                                                       Density of Natural         Targeting regional programmes means that ap-
Source: ZALF, AIT, PAS
                                                                                                                                                                              95
                Agricultural and Rural
                Development Policies
If key steps are taken, future CAP has the potential to replace
the sprawl of artificial surfaces from the peri-urban into rural
land areas with diversity of technical, social and environmen-
tal innovation. In addition, greater biodiversity protection
and resilience in resource-use can be achieved based on pow-
erful urban-rural cooperation tailored to regional demands.
96
          Cyprus                                                                       Figure 46: Rural Development budgets and
         Estonia                                                                       RUR composition by Member State
         Finland
        Sweden                                                                         Share of EAFRD contribution per Member State,
           Latvia                                                                      Programming period 2007-2013 (EC, August 2008)
      Lithuania
           Spain
        Bulgaria
       Romania
         Ireland
      Denmark
          France
        Slovakia                                                                                Are peri-urban
 Czech Republic
          Greece                                                                                areas a topic for the
       Hungary
       Portugal                                                                                 CAP after 2013?
         Austria
                                                                                          U
   Luxembourg
       Slovenia                                                                                ntil now, in the context of the CAP, the discus-
            Italy                                                                              sion about the specific role, potentials, needs
United Kingdom                                                                            and targets of peri-urban regions has only been held
          Poland
        Belgium
                                                                                          sporadically. A considerable share of public support
       Germany                                                                            from the first pillar has gone towards urban and
           Malta                                                                          peri-urban regions, as they are the location of head
The Netherlands
                                                                                          offices of big companies owning farmland. However,
              0%            20%               40%            60%          80%   100%
                                                                                          this does not mean that recipients keep the money
                    Axis 1: competitiveness         Axis 2: environment
                                                                                          in the urban regions. Cash flows are directed further
                    Axis 3: diversification         Axis 4:LEADER
                                                                                          to the countryside where the farmland is located,
                                                                                          e.g. with farm investments. In contrast, recipients of
                                                                                          second pillar payments are nearly exclusively lo-
          Cyprus                                                                          cated in rural regions. Currently, rural development
         Estonia                                                                          policy (the second pillar) is clearly directed towards
         Finland                                                                          the support of rural regions, where average income
        Sweden
           Latvia
                                                                                          per capita is lower than in towns and cities, the skills
      Lithuania                                                                           base narrower, and the service sector is less devel-
           Spain                                                                          oped. Still, the more concisely the needs for the
       Bulgaria
                                                                                          post-2013 programming period of the RD Pro-
       Romania
         Ireland                                                                          grammes are formulated, the clearer the need be-
      Denmark                                                                             comes to address specific importance to the particu-
          France
                                                                                          larity of farms providing public goods in the urban
       Slovakia
 Czech Republic                                                                           rural interface.
         Greece
       Hungary
       Portugal
         Austria
   Luxembourg
       Slovenia
            Italy
United Kingdom
         Poland
       Belgium
      Germany                                                                          Share of EAFRD
           Malta                                                                       predominantly urban,
The Netherland                                                                         peri-urban and rural
             0%             20%               40%            60%          80%   100%   regions
                                                                                                                                               97
                          PLUREL research results permit the comparison of          size, particularly the small market towns that are an
                          CAP support distribution to the thematic axis of          integral part of rural areas. The size of urban centres
                          RDPs with the share of peri-urban areas for single        included may be as high as 30,000 inhabitants, de-
                          regions or groups of regions at different levels of ag-   pending on the member state” (Dormal-Marino,
                          gregation, e.g. according to typologies. Figure 46        2009). The reasoning for this threshold is the inter-
                          shows this for the national scale. Countries with a       vention logic aimed at levelling disparities between
                          high share of peri-urban regions tend to spend a          rural and urbanised areas.
                          higher share of the RD budget for diversification               It is important to note that analyses of PLUREL
                          measures and agri-environmental measures than             do not prove that farms in rural regions have strong
                          predominantly rural countries.                            disadvantages or noticeably different characteris-
                                Until now, the evaluation of CAP payments has       tics and conditions than farms near large urban cen-
                          been carried out in a way that does not allow for         tres. The figures 47-50 show the results of an analy-
                          specific consideration of the impacts on peri-urban       sis of NUTS3 EUROSTAT census data, related to a
                          regions. The methods developed in PLUREL would al-        typology of urban-rural regions that takes settle-
                          low for spatially explicit impact assessment if ben-      ment structure and population density into account.
                          eficiary data with georeference (IACS/ LPIS) were ac-
                          cessible. It would then be possible to answer              Near Metropolitan regions in Europe, the share
                          questions such as the following:                            of specialists in horticulture is higher than in re-
                                                                                      gions with less urbanisation (Figure 47);
                           Which behavioural patterns of farmers as pro-            Approximately 70 percent of European farms
                            viders of rural goods and services are typical in         have arable production, rather independent of
                            peri-urban regions;                                       whether they are located in metropolitan re-
                           How is the relationship between societal urban            gions, rural regions or intermediate urbanisation
                            demand and agricultural land use related to the           structures. However, rural regions show a broad
                            multiple supply of functions and services in peri-        range due to more grassland use (Figure 48);
                            urban areas;                                             Full time farming tends to be slightly higher the
                           In which direction is this relationship expected to       more urbanised regions are. Pluriactivity (diver-
                            develop under the changed pressure situations?            sification into other sectors) is often positively
                                                                                      connected to multifunctionality. On the other
                           The intervention logic of LEADER excludes larger           hand, the share of farms with full time employ-
                           cities from eligibility. PLUREL results cannot prove       ment in rural regions is not higher than in the
                           a competitive advantage or substantially differ-           other settlement types analysed (Figure 49);
                           ent farm structure near larger cities.                    The economic performance (measured by the
                                                                                      gross margin) is higher in farms located near
                                                                                      metropolitan areas due to higher specialisation.
                          LEADER, the fourth axis of RDPs, supports projects,         Regions with large urban centres are compara-
                          not measures or farms. “LEADER enables inclusive            bly lagging behind (Figure 50);
                          partnerships with urban settlements of a certain
98
                                                                   Figure 47: Horticultural farms in rural-urban regions                                                                             Figure 49: Part-time farmers in rural-urban regions
80,00 80,00
                                                                                                                                              agriculture max. 25 % in %
                                                          60,00                                                                                                                        60,00
40,00 40,00
20,00 20,00
0,00 0,00
                                                                      Metropolitan Regions with   Regions with    Rural                                                                                 Metropolitan Regions with   Regions with    Rural
                                                                        Regions     large urban   small urban    regions                                                                                  Regions     large urban   small urban    regions
                                                                                      centres       centres                                                                                                             centres       centres
Figure 48: Arable farms in rural-urban regions Figure 50: Farm economy in rural-urban regions
100,00 5,00
                                                          80,00                                                                                                                               4,00
Share of holdings with arable production in %
                                                          60,00                                                                                                                               3,00
                                                                                                                                                  Average Standard Gross Margin per ha
40,00 2,00
                                                          20,00                                                                                                                               1,00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: ZALF
0,00 0,00
                                                                      Metropolitan Regions with   Regions with    Rural                                                                                 Metropolitan Regions with   Regions with    Rural
                                                                        Regions     large urban   small urban    regions                                                                                  Regions     large urban   small urban    regions
                                                                                      centres       centres                                                                                                             centres       centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             99
                                Why are peri-urban areas important to
                                meet the new challenges of the CAP?
                           resilience is therefore the new challenge for sustain-     The EU launched a public debate on the CAP post-
                           able Rural Development. In particular, climate change,     2013, which indicated a significant demand to fa-
                           renewable energy, water management, biodiversity           cilitate more regional differentiation in interven-
                           and dairy restructuring are the main new issues the        tions with an improved territorial targeting, e.g.
                           CAP agenda must address.                                   by differentiating peri-urban areas and isolated
                                 Maintaining peri-urban agriculture is an essen-      rural areas. Many stakeholders pointed out that
                           tial strategy in mitigating climate change (see next       the dependence of rural regions on neighbouring
                           chapter “Towards Europe 2020”) by buffering tem-           urban areas is a key determinant in achieving lo-
                           perature, precipitation and dust effects, and thereby      cal development and the resulting need to rein-
                           improving the health of citizens. Furthermore, peri-       force urban-rural linkages (CEC 2010d).
                           urban agriculture contributes to the goal of reduc-
                           ing CO2 emissions (e.g. by maintaining open spaces
                           and agricultural use, by reforestation programmes,        With Rural Development support, the CAP after 2013
                           the processing of biomass, and the promotion of the       will contribute towards the balanced territorial de-
                           localisation of quality production and consumption        velopment of rural areas throughout the EU by em-
                           to reduce food miles), and also by developing short       powering people in local areas, improving local con-
                           local food chains that reduce health costs and con-       ditions, and building capacity and links between
                           nect the activity of buying local food with recreation.   rural and urban areas. Under the guiding themes en-
                                 Peri-urban agriculture is also essential for the    vironment, climate change and innovation, policy
                           supply, storage and purification of water within a        measures will pay attention to innovative ideas for
                           short distance to centres, and for the maintenance        business, local development and local governance,
                           of biodiversity. Both functions are related to the spa-   e.g. by adding value to local resources, developing
                           tial extent and spatial pattern that agriculture          direct sales and local markets (CEC 2010c).
                           maintains in the urban fringe. The more that agri-              The CAP towards 2020 seeks to further
                           culturally managed open space is reduced and frag-        strengthen the coherence between rural develop-
                           mented, the more an efficient functioning of the          ment policy and other EU policies, as well as a com-
                           natural resilience capacity is curtailed. If RD Pro-      mon strategic framework for EU funds. The Euro-
                           grammes seek to strengthen rural sustainability,          pean Commission presented three possible
Glasshouses in Haag-       they should best exploit rural-urban relationships. A     pathways for future CAP options: a rather conserva-
landen, the Netherlands,   clearer acknowledgement of peri-urban functions is        tive first option, a second option aimed at achieving
a PLUREL case study        therefore urgently required.                              more targeted measures, and most far reaching, a
                                                                                     third option that would provide a clear financial fo-
                                                                                     cus on environmental and climate change issues
                                                                                     through the Rural Development policy framework,
                                                                                     which would encourage the creation of regional
                                                                                     strategies in order to assure the implementation of
                                                                                     EU objectives (CEC 2010c). The next chapters of this
                                                                                     status report intend to present new approaches re-
                                                                                     lated to the third path discussed for the CAP post-
                                                                                     2013.
100
Harvesting food and
appreciation: ‘Nomadic
                               How to best exploit peri-urban potentials
green’ urban gardening.
Berlin, Germany
                               without creating a distortion of competition
                               for remote rural regions?
                           The more that future support of agriculture is            can be highly priced products, such as organically
                              directed towards support schemes that are not           grown vegetables and niche products. For such
                              only based on historic entitlements, but also on        farmers, it is important to ensure long term stabil-
                              output criteria related to the societal legitimacy,     ity in land rental contracts. RD programmes can
                              the higher the probability that public and private      set incentives within axis 1 by offering specific
                              payments for ecosystem services can be realised.        investment support qualification and training
                             Greening of the CAP should consider the poten-          opportunities for young farmers.
                              tials of peri-urban areas.                             A stronger integration of urban and rural actors
                             More regionally targeted CAP measures in a rural-       within LEADER projects would be important, in-
                              urban context are needed. This includes more            dependent of where particular LEADER actions
                              flexibility on the entitlements, and for setting        take place. The role of institutional interaction is
                              payments related to target groups or target areas.      an important issue in this context. Governance
                             The more rural-urban relationships illustrate the       processes to negotiate land use demands in
                              role of the peri-urban in meeting sustainable de-       peri-urban landscapes towards sustainable deci-
                              velopment, the more effective governance pro-           sion making arise particularly within local action
                              cesses will strive to control sprawl on-site, on        groups of LEADER projects. The CAP should not
                              time and in a well-communicated way. Vitality of        generally redefine thresholds, but should allow
                              rural areas will grow.                                  for regional and local target setting.
                             The specific challenge for peri-urban regions lies
                              in setting appropriate incentives for farmers to
                              continue farming. In prime agricultural areas, this
                                                                                                                                      101
                      Transport Policies
                                                                                 T
new markets. Danube
river, Austria        paper for urban mobility (CEC 2007)).                           ransport infrastructure has a major impact on
                                                                                      future mobility in Europe. The infrastructure de-
                                                                                 velopment should promote the sustainable accessi-
                                                                                 bility and modal shift to more environmentally
                                                                                 friendly mobility. The regional impacts of national
                                                                                 and EU level transport policies and structural funds
                                                                                 have to be recognised. Are investments into the in-
                                                                                 frastructure development directed towards sup-
                                                                                 porting motorways or high speed rail connections?
                                                                                 Which modes of transport are subsidised? What are
                                                                                 new and emerging technologies, and what kind of
                                                                                 infrastructure is needed in the future?
102
     The potential of the                                 cused on increasing mobility, which leads to increas-
                                                          ing vehicle transport. In order to achieve sustainable
     peri-urban in meeting                                accessibility, the focus must be shifted to accessibility
     the challenges                                       oriented planning, which includes a wider scale of
                                                          policy options and solutions to improve accessibility
                                                          without simultaneously increasing the total number
                                                                                                                                               103
                         Landscape and
                         Environmental Policies
104
share of endangered bird species, are under peri-ur-
ban influence and are thus exposed to stronger an-              Figure 51: Natura2000 in peri-urban regions in Europe
thropogenic pressure, leading to reduced biodiver-
                                                           30
sity (Figure 52).
                                                           25
T
                                                           15
     he PLUREL scenarios represent different future
     developments, and their common denominator            10
is continuing urban growth. The question is how the
threats and opportunities caused by urban expan-           5
                                                                                                                                                    105
                Towards EUROPE 2020:
                Pan-European challenges
                for the peri-urban
106
pean economies to increase productivity (both la-            they are each under pressure to provide more
bour and resources), employment levels, and the skills       road infrastructure, large industrial and logistics
of the workforce. Current trends in the EU show a            sites, and science/business park developments;
moderate productivity growth of around 1%, a diver-         Urban innovation policy. It is also becoming
gence in workforce education levels, and employ-             clearer that the strongest drivers of the ‘innova-
ment rates with only a gradual improvement. This             tion system’ are often focused on urban centres
quite mixed picture is amplified at a regional level.        and urban agglomerations. Here, the expansion
                                                             of Central Business Districts often displaces in-
     Spatial patterns across Europe                          ner city communities with multiple problems.
                                                             The need for new business sites to serve ever
Many territorial and regional impacts can be traced          larger markets and workforces then drives a
directly to the Cohesion Funds and other main-               chain of ‘cumulative causation’, including new
stream fiscal programmes. A mid-term sustainabil-            roads, new housing, new retail and leisure parks,
ity evaluation of the Structural Funding programmes          in an ever-expanding peri-urban area.
found generally that mainstream infrastructure of
roads and industrial sites often created economic          Overall, there are two kinds of challenges raised by
gains at the cost of environmental problems. In con-       globalisation in the peri-urban. One is to manage
trast, skills and capacity building measures appeared      the impacts of the growth-led development path
to have wholly positive effects (ECOTEC, 2005).            which is set by the Lisbon Agenda, particularly in re-
      The ‘Globalisation Vulnerability Index’ of Re-       gions that are already in rapid peri-urbanisation. An-
gions 2020 depicts this in terms of productivity, em-      other is to pick up the pieces left over from restruc-
ployment rates and educational attainment, each            turing in the less modernised and more economically
projected to 2020. Here, the Index is filtered to in-      vulnerable peri-urban regions.
clude only regions which are ‘predominantly peri-
urban’ (Figure 53). This shows that generally, the
southern, eastern and peripheral regions are much               Demographic change
more exposed to globalisation, i.e. the pressures of
restructuring, investment, infrastructure and chang-       Future trends in the natural population processes,
ing skills demands. And it is very topical that within     such as low fertility rates and the ageing of the popu-
these regions, the peri-urban areas will be most under     lation, combined with internal or international mi-
pressure for the same globalisation menu – new in-         gration, may in the long run lead to the decrease of
dustrial and business sites, high value housing, and       the European population. The renewed Social Agenda
major infrastructure for roads, ports and airports.
                                                                                                                                     107
of the Commission of the European Union (2008) re-         cline will hit mainly central and eastern European       Building the know-
flects this conviction, as it identified population age-   regions, while ageing will be delayed in these re-       ledge society. Saint
                                                                                                                    Etienne, France
ing as one of the key factors in social change within      gions due to the lower life expectancy. The decline in
the EU. Such demographic change is likely to trans-        the working age population will be the highest in
form European societies as we know them, and create        Scandinavian countries and Germany.
a whole new economic and social environment.                     The distribution shows that most major EU na-
      In contrast to the relatively slow-changing nat-     tions contain a range of conditions, with a patch-
ural population trends, migration patterns can             work-like character. There are rural or more remote
change and fluctuate more rapidly, and are more            areas with a high vulnerability index, a combination
sensitive to difficult policy decisions. Three forms of    of ageing, population decline and working age pop-
migration, i.e. within the country, within the EU and      ulation. There are also peri-urban regions close to
from third countries, have to be differentiated. The       the ‘core’, with similar problems of ageing and de-
‘nationals’ (coming to the city from other parts of        pendency. In contrast, some capital regions like Ma-
the same country), the ‘other EU nationals’ and the        drid, Paris or Warsaw appear to have a higher growth
‘non-EU nationals’ differ substantially in all aspects,    and turnover, and so a relatively low vulnerability.
from the regulations which influence their numbers,              The demographic division of Europe generally
to the way they integrate into the labour and hous-        follows the line of its economic division. Countries
ing market of the city.                                    with stronger economies have relatively high fertil-
                                                           ity levels, and their population growth is also aided
      Spatial patterns across Europe                       by migration. The extension of current trends to a
                                                           longer time horizon, beyond 2020, suggests that de-
The ‘Demographic Vulnerability peri-urban region           mographic challenges will accelerate the existing
Index’ is based on the share of people aged over 65,       interregional differences, reducing the chance of
population decline and the share of the working age        more peripheral EU regions ever catching up. On the
population in 2020, with each factor projected to          basis of fertility rates and migratory patterns, three
2020 (Figure 54). These three factors show different       major areas of demographic change within the Eu-
territorial patterns across Europe. Population de-         ropean Union can be defined:
108
                                                            Figure 54: Demography Vulnerability Index 2020
                                                            in predominantly peri-urban regions in EU 27
                                                                                                                    >    0 – 20
                                                                                                                    >   20 –   30
                                                                                                                    >   30 – 40
                                                                                                                    >   40 –   50
                                                                                                                    >   50 – 100
                                                                                                                    other regions
 Western and northern European countries. This                     Implications for the peri-urban
  is the high fertility belt of Europe, where there is
  also a high level of immigration;                         Overall, there is a range of demographic challenges
 Southern Europe and the German speaking                   that particularly affect peri-urban areas:
  countries. In these areas, low fertility is com-
  bined with replacement migration that can help             Peri-urban areas with problems of growth or
  to compensate for the population loss;                         shrinkage;
 Central and eastern Europe. In these countries, a          Peri-urban restructuring, for ageing and other
  low level of fertility is combined with very little         kinds of segmented communities;
  or no migration at all (in a few cases even exten-         Peri-urban areas under pressure from migrants.
  sive emigration) which leads to accelerating                This can be voluntary migration from lifestyle or
  population decrease.                                        retirement groups. It can also be a result of ur-
                                                              ban ‘enclaving’, i.e. residential and labour segre-
The Kröhnert et al. (2007) study evaluated the dynamic        gation that slows down migrant assimilation,
of natural population in itself, without external migra-      perpetuating inequities in social mobility and
tion figures, as the latter depend on different political     employment across ethnic groups. While en-
factors. The results show “…populations dive by 12 to 18      claves of third country migrants affect mainly
percent by 2030 in the Baltic states, Ukraine, Belarus        urban areas, national migrants can more easily
and large swathes of rural Bulgaria and Romania as            concentrate in peri-urban areas where there are
well as remote parts of Poland and east Germany.”             cheaper land prices.
Thus the continuation of present trends might lead to
some peri-urban regions (and to a lesser extent, cities)    Regional and metropolitan area governments have
in eastern Europe becoming almost deserted. On the          some scope to influence the economic and social im-
other extreme, some areas in western Europe might           pacts of demographic trends. The policy agenda
become much more crowded than they have been to             starts with urban-rural linkages, which were dis-
date. Both developments may cause problems and              cussed by the OECD (2009): “If well managed, the
raise the question as to what type of public interven-      interactions between urban centres and countryside
tions are needed regarding demographic and migra-           are the basis for a balanced regional development
tion patterns, as well as related aspects.                  which is economically, socially and environmentally
                                                                                                                                    109
sustainable. … The spatial structure of polycentric re-      Invasive species and habitat decline or fragmen-
gions can enable them to reap the scale and agglom-           tation. This is connected with each of the above.
eration advantages typical for large cities, and at the       It is particularly topical in peri-urban areas that
same time avoid some disadvantages of large cities            are often fragmented by roads and other urban
like high factor costs, congestion or pollution. … It         infrastructure;
would … be important to study whether better con-            Synergistic and cumulative effects are likely to drive
nections (“linkages”) between rural and urban areas           the worst problems. For instance, in the EU heat
can induce people to substitute migration with com-           wave of 2005, mortality and morbidity was in-
muting.” Such ‘localised’ responses are essential.            creased by lack of social cohesion. In many peri-ur-
However, the macro-regional population move-                  ban areas, there are fragmented communities, local
ments, with the prospect of empty areas in the East           economies, governance systems and cultural groups.
versus overcrowded peri-urban areas in the West,
needs pan-European strategies and policies.                      Energy and climate mitigation policy
110
Figure 55: Climate Change Vulnerability Index
in predominantly peri-urban regions in EU 27
                                                              > 		 0 – 20
                                                              >		 20 –   30
                                                              >		 30 – 40
                                                              >		 40 –   50
                                                              >		 50 – 100
                                                              other regions
Source: Eurostat, JRC, DG Regio, ZALF, AIT
        Spatial patterns and challenges                    Built environment planning and design (particu-
                                                              larly transport infrastructure) for emissions re-
                                                                                                             111
INTEGRATED
DEvElopmENT
112
AND EU polICY
opTIoNS
            113
                 Integrated Development
                 for peri-Urban Territorial Cohesion:
                 The agenda for integration
114
        Rural-urban regions as                                                               Direct rural-urban linkages including physical
                                                                                              and environmental flows and ecosystem serv-
        territorial units                                                                     ices, water resources and flood control, energy
                                                                                              and minerals, farm and forest products, land-
                                                                                                                                                   115
                         Green and blue infrastructure in the peri-urban.                     Pro-active spatial planning that aims for clusters
                          In order to compete with roads, housing and in-                         and hubs, for both living and working spaces,
                          dustrial development, this needs stronger fund-                         with a hierarchy of community types related to
                          ing and legal powers that enable the benefits of                        service levels;
                          investment to be returned to users and resi-                           Transport infrastructure that enables multimo-
                          dents;                                                                  dal integration, with alternative forms of re-
                         Rural hinterland with natural or semi-natural ar-                       sponsive or distributed networks where needed;
                          eas. A priority for rural-urban linkages, with diver-                  Economic development that links local enter-
                          sification in farming and forestry. Also ecosystem                      prise to global investment, thereby building re-
                          services exchange and strategic management of                           silience and diversity in SME supply chains, la-
                          natural assets.                                                         bour and property markets;
                                                                                                 Environmental policy that enhances ecosystem
                               visions and goals for integrated                                   services, urban-rural linkage and ecological resili-
                               development                                                        ence, with a multifunctional land use strategy;
                                                                                                 Local government which works across borders,
                        There is an overarching question on policy for peri-                      with both formal and informal networks and co-
                        urban areas – is there a vision for integrated devel-                     operative structures.
                        opment that works for real places and spaces? Does
                        this mean not only the avoidance of sprawl, but a
                        positive vision?                                                            New governance
                               At the city region level, the peri-urban is often a
                        battleground between global and local, urban or ru-                         concepts
                        ral. There is a powerful dynamic of development and
                        enterprise, accelerated by global finance, technolo-
                        gies, networks and media, with the airport and
                        ‘aero-tropolis’ as the main hub, pushed by landown-
                                                                                              G     overnance in the sense of public interest deci-
                                                                                                   sion making and the management of public
                                                                                              services is in a state of flux. The boundaries are be-
                        ers, financiers, entrepreneurs and householders (fig-                 ing redrawn between market and state, between the
                        ure 57). The result can be seen as a ‘Type A’ city region             different sectors and professions, and between differ-
                        – sprawl, waste, pollution, congestion, exclusion, and                ent levels from local to global. Expectations are rising
                        overall vulnerability.                                                along with the challenges, while the public trust in
                               In response, the integrated development ap-                    political leadership and public services, in many
                        proach, or ‘Type B’ city region, sets out a positive vision           places, is falling. Success may depend not only on
                        which aims to bring together global and local agendas:                more governance, but on new forms of governance.
116
     The comparison of regional case studies in
PLUREL brought this agenda to the fore (Aalbers and
Eckerberg, 2010). There were four main fields of in-
vestigation related to the application of recent
thinking on multilevel governance:
                                                                                                                     117
      peri-urban sustainability?                          Rural development agenda. A more local policy
                                                           perspective that aims at a zone of indigenous
118
    water plant, executive housing and heritage                                                  New forms of governance
    landscapes all provide a range of functions and
    services to others. This not only shows a single
    gradient between urban and rural, but many
    more kinds of relationships. The sustainability
                                                                                           T    hese sustainability goals are not just a matter of
                                                                                                targets. They also concern the way that systems
                                                                                            work, in settlements, in landscapes, or in the interac-
    goals then apply to the whole system rather                                             tions between them. It follows that the governance
    than just its parts.                                                                    which aims to enable them also needs to be more
                                                                                            focused on the whole system rather than its sepa-
Thirdly, in each sector, there are practical sustainabil-                                   rate parts. This suggests an agenda for ‘transition’ in
ity goals and targets that apply to the peri-urban                                          governance, as in Figure 59:
situation. Some of the most topical targets include:
                                                                                             From the former command-style ‘organised gov-
 Climate change emissions targets in urban and                                               ernment’ with hierarchical structures, one-way
  peri-urban systems. This links to settlement                                                communications, and (typically) elections once
  structures, land use, landscape patterns as well                                            every 5 years;
  as for adaptation potential, although this is not                                          Towards a more fluid and responsive ‘self-organ-
  so easily measured;                                                                         ising governance’. This is based on networks of
 Transport, energy, water and other urban infra-                                             enabling, influencing, mobilisation, coalition
  structure. The efficiency and external impacts                                              and relationship building, between multiple
  again are linked to settlement structures, land                                             stakeholders at multiple levels. New opportuni-
  use and landscape patterns;                                                                 ties are emerging to support such a transition,
 Land quality, soil quality and other biophysical                                            such as new ICT and Web2.0 social network sys-
  resources and flows that are central to the eco-                                            tems, new forms of public participation and de-
  logical concept of sustainability.                                                          liberation, new forms of stakeholding, and the
 Sustainable forms of food production, forestry                                              tolerance of minority groups and cultures;
  and other land uses including larger scales as                                             Such a self-organising governance is not the
  well, such as the contribution of peri-urban food                                           whole story. It relies on a ‘regime’ or institutional
  systems to the urban-global food system.                                                    structure, just as free markets rely on strong reg-
                                                                                              ulation, or self-organising communities rely on
                                                                                              strong social norms.
                                                                                                                                                         119
      New institutional
      models
                           Development obligations
                           Access agreements
                           Stewardship schemes
                        3rd sector:
 Farmers markets        Community groups           Area forums
 Tourism / heritage     Conservation groups        Countryside
 partnerships           Social enterprise groups   partnerships
 Village business       Social landlords etc.      Conservation
 forums                                            compacts
120
     New policy                                                          impacts, while at the same time, it may be the pre-
     intelligence models                                                 ferred location by climate-stressed urban residents.
                                                                         Figure 61 shows a view of climate adaptation in the
There are technical challenges in multi-sectoral, multi-                 peri-urban as multiple interactions between multi-
functional and multilevel governance, particularly in                    ple types of stakeholders.
the fragmented peri-urban situation. Experience shows
that different sectors speak different languages with                             New entrepreneurial and
 different incentives. So we need ways of improving                               value added models
‘policy intelligence’, which does not only mean more in-
formation, but better knowledge management                               In the ‘institutional’ and ‘intelligence’ models above,
through the whole policy cycle from capacity building,                   the question is – what kinds of incentives and moti-
to analysis, strategy, implementation and evaluation.                    vations can help to achieve them? How do we get
       This is a challenge for existing governance sys-                  from here to there? This raises the concept of ‘value’,
tems – generally arranged in departmental boxes –                        and the process of generating ‘added value’. Value is
to respond to agendas which are multifunctional,                         an economic concept which might be measured in
multilevel, multiagency, intergenerational and so on.                    money terms. It is also a social, political or cultural
The concept of ‘strategic policy intelligence’ brings                    concept more suitable for other kinds of measures.
this all together:                                                       The challenge for governance can be seen as the en-
                                                                         abling of value-added activity by and for all stake-
 Exchange of technical information from differ-                         holders – not just for a static balance sheet, but as a
    ent sectors;                                                         creative and entrepreneurial process. In the peri-ur-
 Application to the policy cycle, with stages in-                       ban situation, the best practices and the most valu-
  cluding survey, analysis, strategy, implementa-                        able opportunities will often combine economic, so-
  tion and evaluation;                                                   cial and environmental kinds of added value:
 Organisational capacity building and innovation,
  learning and skills development;                                        In Local Economic Development (LED), value is
 Anticipatory governance through foresight and                            added in business self-help models. But greater
  future studies, systems thinking and strategic                           potential exists in new kinds of partnerships be-
  planning.                                                                tween businesses, landowners, consumers and
                                                                           intermediaries;
One example is the peri-urban climate change                              In local community development, a ‘social enter-
agenda (see previous chapter). Peri-urban develop-                         prise’ approach can generate cultural projects,
ment is particularly vulnerable to climate change                          such as heritage and arts events, public health
                                                    Planning and fiscal policy to enable    Ecosystems / climate services                              Figure 61: Strategic
                                                    strategic approach to green infra /     companies provide integrated
                                                    flood / water / resilience              carbon / climate package                                   policy intelligence -
                               New ways of funding
                                                                                                                                                       climate example
                                                               Government,                  Inter-mediaries and         Multi-functional land,
                               and insuring green infra
                               and risk management             national / local             service companies           collective resources and
                               via ecosystem services                                                                   community resilience           showing the different
                                                                                                                                                       roles & relationships of
                                   Finance and                                                                        Social and community             stakeholders, and the
                                   enterprise                                                                         enterprise
                                                                          Strategic policy intelligence                                                potential for a policy
                                                                         system: anticipatory scanning,                                                intelligence system
                                                                          extended value chains with
                                    Utilities and                           participative innovation                        Citizens and
                                    infrastructure                                                                          householder
                                                                                                                                                                                  121
                                                                                              ers, farmers, schools and children, markets, delivery
Figure 62: peri-urban local integrated development – example
                                                                                              merchants, supermarkets, health services, restau-
showing the different based on the local food scheme in the UK South pennines:
www.incredible-edible-todmorden.co.uk/                                                        rants tourism operators and others (Figure 62).
122
 Spatial strategy. This involves a policy frame-             Application to multilevel governance
    work at the level of the rural-urban region, co-
    ordinating peri-urban development and low-
    impact infrastructure and setting up controls
    and incentives to avoid sprawl. The focus is on
                                                         I  is easy to call for multilevel and multi-sectoral
                                                            governance, but not as simple to make it a reality.
                                                         It is therefore a good reason to work at a number of
    the peri-urban as a priority agenda together         levels, from local to regional, national and EU level.
    with its rural-urban linkages and relation-          There are also good reasons to work with both for-
    ships;                                               mal and informal governance, in the event of gov-
   Economic strategy. This involves peri-urban di-      ernance gaps or policy failures at one or another
    versification and resilience of local economies      level. So the ‘integrated development model’ above
    and employment, rural diversification, urban         is designed to work directly at the rural-urban re-
    regeneration with improved urban-rural links,        gion level, and also above or below this level:
    property ownership with social and environ-
    mental responsibility and public access. The          A community-led ‘bottom-up’ approach. This
    focus is on the social economy and social enter-       looks for added value at a more local level includ-
    prise in the peri-urban;                               ing self-organising communities of interest,
   Social strategy. This involves housing and service     with residents, landowners, infrastructure firms,
    provision to encourage balanced, inclusive and         businesses, social enterprises, health and educa-
    resilient communities, leisure and tourism that        tion, NGOs and community organisations;
    is open and accessible, value, and a safe-            The rural-urban region itself is a policy-driven
    guarded social and cultural heritage. The focus        concept. Where an urban area has clear links with
    lies on the needs and opportunities in different       a rural area, then they are de facto part of a rural-
    settlement types in the peri-urban;                    urban region, and need to be managed as such;
   Environmental strategy. This involves ecosys-         EU-initiated top-down approach. The next chapter
    tem-services policy and investment systems,            sets out strategic options for the contribution of
    climate change mitigation and adaptation,              EU policy. Some of these rely on a strong EU com-
    landscape and habitat conservation, and multi-         mitment by national governments, and strong
    level green-blue infrastructure. The focus is          public finances that are presently scarce. Others
    on the agenda for diversified, multifunctional         mark more flexible ways for the EU level to support
    agriculture and forestry;                              and enable other levels of activity towards the re-
   Governance strategy. This involves strong and          quired sustainable and integrated direction.
    democratic municipal government, healthy fi-
    nances and an active role in the local economy,      EU countries are very different regarding the chances
    along with transparency among public and             of these three types of organising governance ap-
    stakeholder participation. The focus is on the ca-   proaches. Reality may prove the need for a mixed ap-
    pacity for strategic and cross-border coordina-      proach, for which an EU level framework, as in the
    tion at the level of the rural-urban region, as      next chapter, should enable and encourage. Overall,
    well as on a sustainable development that ca-        these new models of peri-urban governance are in
    ters for the needs of all stakeholders, and does     many ways old models. They need to be reinvented
    not simply reproduce existing structures of          for the new challenges of globalising networked
    wealth and power.                                    peri-urban territories in the 21st century.
                                                                                                                                        123
                NEW EURopEAN DIRECTIoNS
124
    The problem at the pan-EU level
                                                                                                                125
T   he recent Europe 2020 strategy seeks to integrate
    the economic, environmental and social aspects
of development. To achieve the new smart, sustaina-
                                                              Territorial Cohesion and
                                                              the peri-urban agenda
ble and inclusive development path, strategic coordi-
nation of both policy goals and market processes are
needed as summarised by the Leipzig Charter:             T   he European Union, without being directly re-
                                                             sponsible, nonetheless has a role to play in the
                                                         shaping of future European territorial development,
 Transversal – coordination across sectoral de-         with special regard to the peri-urban agenda. This is
      partments;                                         a multilevel agenda which demands cooperation
 Vertical – a multilevel governance system where        between the EU, national, regional and local levels.
  each level contributes to the integration of sec-      At the EU level, the theme of ‘Territorial Cohesion’
  toral policies;                                        (TC) focuses on the spatial implications of the Lisbon
 Horizontal – multi-territorial coordination be-        Agenda “to assist in improving the governance of co-
  tween cities, urban/rural linkages and metropol-       hesion policy, making it more flexible, more capable
  itan agglomerations;                                   of adapting to the most appropriate territorial scale,
 Multilateral coordination involving citizens and       more responsive to local preferences and needs, and
  all actors concerned.                                  better coordinated with other policies, with the prin-
                                                         ciple of subsidiarity” (CEC 2008). The TC themes and
The limited results so far of the Lisbon Agenda show     objectives are very relevant to the peri-urban
that EU-wide strategies cannot succeed without the       agenda:
sharing of responsibility at the sub-national level.
Similarly, one of the main weaknesses of the Europe       Cooperation between territories involves cross
2020 strategy is the lack of a territorial dimension.      border coordination and strategic policy at mul-
The PLUREL results show how the Europe 2020 poli-          tiple scales. This works with the peri-urban as an
cies depend on the territorial level of integrated         interface between urban/rural areas, or between
planning to assure the green and social aspects of         different urban and regional systems. Policy also
economic development strategies. They also under-          needs to look at the peri-urban as an area type in
line this should focus on the rural-urban region unit      its own right, with its particular needs and op-
that brings together functional urban regions with         portunities;
their peri-urban and rural surroundings.                  Territorial programming uses the territory rather
      PLUREL analysis has shown that the public            than the sector as the base for policies and pro-
steering of market processes towards sustainable de-       grammes. Functional rural-urban regions need
velopment presupposes strong formal government             to be considered as integrated systems. Until
institutions and planning systems, as well as coordi-      now, it has often been the case that the peri-ur-
nated functioning of financial and sectoral policies.      ban territory has not been the object of policy
The bottom-up, more informal governance aspects            discussions;
are also crucial for integrated development at the ru-    Coordination of policies with territorial impact.
ral-urban region level. While these cannot replace the     This is very relevant to the peri-urban, which is
formal structures, they can help where formal struc-       often an area of conflict or competition between
tures are weak or missing to a given extent.               different policy regimes – particularly the urban
                                                           and rural. The obvious example is regional devel-
                                                           opment funding, which helps to produce urban
                                                           sprawl in the peri-urban area;
                                                          Evidence based policy. Here it is clear that tradi-
                                                           tional forms of evidence in urban or rural ‘units
                                                           of analysis’ may not reflect the reality of peri-
                                                           urban spaces within functional rural- urban re-
                                                           gions. There is a need for new forms of research
                                                           and evidence based on the new spaces of the
                                                           peri-urban (of which the PLUREL project is one
                                                           contribution).
126
                        Alternative policy options
                                                                                              127
      option (a): EU Integrated
      Development Framework Directive
128
     option (c): EU Integrated
     Development Community Initiative
                                                                                                            129
      The clash between                                          EU policy at a time
      conditionality and the                                     of public deficit
      subsidiarity principle
130
      EU intervention in                                            Conclusion and
      content or process?                                           next steps
                                                                                                                   131
132
Annex
        PLUReL Models and Tools
        for Rural-Urban Relationships
        at eU – 27 scale
                                   133
               Modelling the impacts of
               urbanisation: The methods
               behind the process
Scenario modelling
134
                                          data (maps)
                                                                                                                                      Figure A1: Modelling
    • Artificial surface                                                                         e.g.                                 impacts of urbanisation
    • GDP                                   Existing                   Existing                  • Employment rate
    • Population density                    databases                  databases                 • Emissions
                                                                                                 • Loss of agricultural area
                                                                                                                                      PLUREL methodological
                                            NUTSX                      NUTSX
                                            Variables /                Variables                 • Recreational value                 approach for EU-27 at
                                            indicators for             for impacts of                                                 NUTSX scale
             H                              urban growth               urban growth                       H
      Scenario                                                                                     Response
      Modelling                           • ∆ Artificial surface                                   Function
      GDP and pop                                                                                  Modelling
      2015, 2025
                                          • ∆ GDP                                       E          of Impacts
                                          • ∆ Population density
                                                                   H
                                                   Particularity of peri-urban trends
                                                                                                                                                          135
               The PLUReL xplorer
                    urbanisation
                                                                        tween the knowledge bits. The user entry offers
                                                                        three different perspectives on peri-urbanisation.
                                                                        Principles and Processes is the holistic approach com-
               A useful platform addressing these and other fore-       prising all products, interlinked in an analytical
               sight questions is the PLUREL Xplorer, a web-based       chain. The Problems category is the thematic per-
               online information platform. The PLUREL Xplorer          spective, while Places displays spatially explicit re-
               condensates and configures the knowledge and             sults of PLUREL from the European down to the case
               products of PLUREL to support planning and policy        study level (Figure A3).
               discussions on rural-urban land use interactions at            The back door (supplier entry) is constructed in
               European and regional level. It provides information     the form of a web-based fact sheet and file upload
               for planners, practitioners and professionals on         system that collects content and meta-information
               processes, problems and places of peri-urbanisation      of knowledge produced in PLUREL in a consistent
               in Europe and its regions (Figure A2).                   and standardised form. This standardisation also al-
                                                                        lows for the extension to other knowledge sources
                                                                        of rural-urban interactions in Europe, its sub-regions
                                                                        or abroad.
136
Figure A2: The information platform PLUREL XPlorer
                                                           spatial
          Analytical                                       scales
                              Peri-urbanisation
            cycle
issues problems
                                                                                 137
                                                        The european integrated
                                                        Impact Analysis Tool (iIAT-eU)
                         138
     Thematic integration                                     Figure A5: Selection of indicators and map viewer
T
                                                                   CO Emissions
    he application principles, the functionality and               HC Emissions
    the graphical user interface of the iIAT-EU have               NOx Emissions
been developed in close collaboration with planners,               Heavy Metal Emissions
administration, policy makers and stakeholders.                Economic
Combining thematic broadness of projections with                   Agricultural Area
spatial flexibility is the new quality of the iIAT-EU,             Farm Productivity
thereby facilitating knowledge integration for dis-                Part-time farming
cussions and decision making towards sustainable                   Gross Domestic Product per Capita
solutions for urban-rural relationships.                           High Education
                                                                   Share of Active Population
                                                               Social
                                                                   Aging
       Access to the PLUReL iIAT-eU                                Employment Agricultural Sector
                                                                   Employment Administration/ Finances Sector
 Visit the PLUREL iIAT-EU at http://plurel.ait.ac.at/              Employment Industrial Sector
 plurel/iiat. It is easily accessible without any re-              Employment Service Sector
 strictions and no software installation is necessary.             Employment Total
 You only require an available internet connection                 Large Family
 and a JAVA runtime environment (freeware) to be                   Children and Adolescence
 installed on the client computer.                                 Social Individualisation
                                                                                                                  139
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                                                                                                                                                                                        141
      List of Authors
                                       Ingo Zasada
Dr. Wolfgang Loibl                     ZALF Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural
AIT Austrian Institute of              Landscape Research e.V.
Technology GmbH                        Institute of Socio-Economics;
Donau-City-Straße 1                    Institute of Land Use Systems
1220 Vienna                            Eberswalder Str. 84
Austria                                15374 Müncheberg
Email: wolfgang.loibl@ait.ac.at        Germany
                                       Email: ingo.zasada@zalf.de
142
143
     Imprint
Peri-urbanisation in Europe:                      Piorr A, Ravetz J, Tosics I (2011) Peri-urbanisation   Cover design, Layout and Production
Towards a European Policy to Sustain              in Europe: Towards a European Policy to sustain        Dorén + Koester, Berlin
Urban-Rural Futures                               Urban-Rural Futures. University of Copenhagen /        www.doren-koester.de
A Synthesis Report                                Academic Books Life Sciences. 144 p. ISBN: 978-
                                                  87-7903-534-8                                          Language proofreading
Editors and responsible authors                   and a copy is sent to the PLUREL project               Tint Linguistic Services, Berlin
Annette Piorr,                                    coordinator and the editors of this synthesis
Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape         report                                                 Printing
Research (ZALF), Muencheberg, Germany.                                                                   H. Heenemann, Berlin
Email: apiorr@zalf.de                             PLUREL Project Coordination
                                                  Kjell Nilsson (project coordinator)                    Environmental production
Joe Ravetz,                                       Danish Centre for Forest,                              This publication is printed according
University of Manchester, United Kingdom.         Landscape and Planning                                 to high environmental standards (FSC certified)
Email: joe.ravetz@manchester.ac.uk                University of Copenhagen                               Printed in Berlin, March 2011
                                                  Rolighedsvej 23
Ivan Tosics,                                      DK-1958 Frederiksberg C                                PLUREL is an Integrated Project partially funded
Metropolitan Research Institute, Budapest,        Tel.: +45 2120 5153                                    by the European Union under the theme
Hungary. Email: tosics@mri.hu                     E-mail: kjni@life.ku.dk                                “Sustainable Development, Global Change
                                                                                                         and Ecosystems” of the Sixth Framework
Legal notice                                      Publisher                                              Programme (Grant Agreement number 036921).
The contents of this report is based on the       Forest & Landscape                                      http://www.plurel.net
results of the EU FP6 Integrated Project PLUREL   University of Copenhagen
by researchers listed in the Annex.               Rolighedsvej 23
The views expressed in this publication are the   DK-1958 Frederiksberg C
sole responsibility of the authors/ publishers    Tel. +45 3533 1500
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the   sl@life.ku.dk
funding bodies. Neither the Editors nor the       www.sl.life.ku.dk
Project Coordinator are responsible for the use
that may be made of the information contained     ISBN: 978-87-7903-534-8 (paper)
in this report.                                   ISSN: 978-87-7903-535-5 (electronic version)
                                                     145
                         The peri-urban – the space around urban areas which
                         merges into the rural landscape – is growing across
                         Europe. The peri-urban is a zone of innovation, know-
                         ledge based and globalized enterprise. It is also the place
                         which attracts new types of housing, transport infra-
                         structure and multifunctional agriculture, with a diverse
                         range of recreation sites and ecosystem services.
                               Urban development, by far the most rapidly expan-
                         ding land use type in Europe, puts peri-urban areas
                         under particular pressure: the growth of built develop-
                         ment in peri-urban areas is likely to be up to four times
                         as fast as in urban areas. The risk is urban sprawl, with its
                         many societal and environmental problems.
                               A more balanced and sustainable pattern of deve-
                         lopment needs a better policy focus, not only on peri-
                         urban areas, but on the wider rural-urban region which
                         surrounds them. A more integrated EU level policy and
                         funding system can enable and encourage integrated
                         development at the local, regional and national levels.
                               This synthesis report, based on new research from
                         the EU Integrated Project PLUREL, quantifies the trends,
                         risks and opportunities for peri-urban areas, sets out
                         new concepts for urban- rural linkages, and provides
                         recommendations for targeted policies for rural-urban
                         regions across Europe.