Dynamics of Violence
Dynamics of Violence
Dynamics of violence
David Katerndahl MD MA,1 Sandra Burge PhD,1 Robert Ferrer MD MPH,1 Johanna Becho BA2 and
Robert Wood DrPH3
1
Professor, 2Research Associate, 3Biostatistician, Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at
San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA
Keywords Abstract
battered women, domestic violence,
intimate partner violence, non-linear Rationale, aims and objectives Three behavioural models suggest different dynamic
dynamics, systems theory patterns of intimate partner violence (IPV). However, few studies permit assessment of IPV
dynamics. The purpose of this study was to estimate the degree of non-linearity in daily
Correspondence violence between partners over a 3-month period, identify their specific dynamic patterns
Dr David Katerndahl and determine whether measures of violence severity and dynamics are interrelated.
Family and Community Medicine Methods From six primary care clinics, we enrolled 200 adult women who experienced
University of Texas Health Science Center violence in the previous month and asked them to complete daily telephone assessments
at San Antonio of household environment, marital relationship and violence using Interactive Verbal
7703 Floyd Curl Drive Response. To assess non-linearity of violence, algorithmic complexity was measured
San Antonio, TX 78229 by LZ complexity and lack of regularity was measured by approximate entropy. Lyapunov
USA exponents and correlation dimension saturation were used to approximate dynamic
E-mail: katerndahl@uthscsa.edu patterns.
Results Of the 9618 daily reports, women reported experiencing abuse on 39% of days,
Accepted for publication: 31 March 2014
while perpetrating violence themselves on 23% of days. Most (59%) displayed random
dynamics, 30% showed chaotic and 12% showed periodic dynamics. All three measures of
doi:10.1111/jep.12151
non-linearity consistently demonstrated non-linear patterns of violence. Using multivariate
analysis of variance, neither episode severity for men or women showed significant differ-
ences across dynamic types, but chaotic dynamics had the lowest frequencies of violence
in men and women while random dynamics had the highest frequencies. Approximate
entropy was positively correlated with violence frequency and burden in men and women,
but Lyapunov exponent was inversely related to violence. LZ complexity correlated posi-
tively with wife-perpetrated violence only.
Conclusions IPV is rarely a predictable, periodic phenomenon; no behavioural model
describes the violence dynamics for all violent relationships. Yet, the measures of non-
linearity and specific dynamic patterns correlate with different violent features of these
relationships.
Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 20 (2014) 695–702 © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 695
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Dynamics of violence D. Katerndahl et al.
Predictions Observations
measure of statistical significance. To support a ‘chaotic’ assign- dynamics had the least. Table 1 summarizes the predictions of this
ment, surrogate testing had to yield a P ≤ 0.05. Final assignments validation process.
consisted of those initial assignments that were ‘validated’ by
ARIMA modelling and surrogate testing.
Association between dynamics and
Further validation was performed using comparisons of LZ
violence severity
complexity and ApEn across patterns as well as results predicted
by vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. If initial pattern assign- The relationships between measures of non-linearity and violence
ments were correct, we would expect that LZ complexity and severity were assessed using Spearman correlations. The relation-
ApEn would increase when moving from periodic to random ships between dynamic pattern and violence severity were
dynamics. VAR models use multiple concurrent predictors’ time assessed using multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) with
series to develop models explaining the dependent variable’s time REGWF post hoc testing.
series. VARs provide useful descriptions of temporal covariability
among variables, good estimates for forecasting and sensitivity to
identification of external ‘shocks’ to the time series. VARs using
Results
STATA software (Stata Corp., College Station, TX, USA) were run Subjects were predominantly Hispanic (76%) and of low income
on each subject using the dependent variable (level of violence) (53% with <$20 000). Their mean age was 38.2 years (±11.7 SD)
and all of the predictor variables. Sequential VARs were run with and 131 (68%) had at least a high school education. Although 85
increasing numbers of lags from 1 to 7 days using only predictor (43%) were in common law marriages, the mean duration of rela-
variables that showed any day-to-day variation. We used the VAR tionship was 9.6 (±8.9 SD) years with a mean duration of abuse
model with the most numbers of possible lags as long as the was 5.5 (±6.5 SD) years.
likelihood ratios (assessing whether additional variance was
accounted for by increasing the number of lags) remained signifi-
Dynamics of violence
cant (P ≤ 0.10) to determine which model was best. These VARs
yielded β-coefficients (and their significance) for each lag for each All three measures of non-linearity suggested that, as a group,
predictor of level of violence [35]. In addition, compared with these women experienced dynamics of abuse that were generally
random dynamics, VAR analysis in periodic dynamics would be non-linear. LZ complexity, measuring algorithmic complexity, had
expected to account for more variance in IPV, have the highest a mean of 1.035 (±.225 SD). As Fig. 1 shows, the LZ complexity
proportion of significant predictors and have the maximal signifi- statistics for most women indicated random patterns, that is, meas-
cant lagged coefficient proportionally (based on the maximum lag uring above the levels for ‘benchmark’ comparison time series
length in days). Finally, using pooled VAR results (pooled using with periodic or chaotic dynamics. Although some women had
methods of Greenland [36]), we would expect that random dynam- negative exponents, suggesting periodic dynamics, most had
ics would be associated with the most circularly causal predictors Lyapunov exponents similar to those seen in chaotic time series.
(using 1-day lagged coefficients in which predictors were signifi- Finally, the mean approximate entropy across all women was
cantly associated with subsequent IPV while IPV was significantly 0.686 (±0.187 SD), suggesting non-linearity (chaotic or random
associated with the subsequent predictor) of IPV while periodic patterns). All approximate entropies were less than those of the
Husband-perpetrated violence
Frequency 0.35a 0.28a 0.48b 10.51 (0.000)
Episode severity 2.87 2.35 2.55 1.42 (0.245)
Burden 1.10a,b 0.72a 1.31b 4.45 (0.014)
Wife-perpetrated violence
Frequency 0.22a,b 0.15a 0.29b 8.01 (0.001)
Episode severity 1.97 1.78 1.86 0.17 (0.840)
Burden 0.60 0.32 0.59 2.38 (0.097)
Wilks’ lambda (F, P) = 371.41 (0.000). Superscript letters define the subgroups from the posthoc
analysis.
F, P, F-statistic, P-value.
Table 3 Non-linearity and violence severity (rs) in chaotic relationships toward the ‘edge of chaos’ could promote
spontaneous change [49]. Finally, in relationships exhibiting
Violence (n = 140) LZ complexity Lyapunov ApEn
random dynamics, multifaceted approaches or positive role models
Husband-perpetrated violence could yield results (if intervention is even possible).
Frequency 0.14 −0.28**** 0.47****
Episode severity 0.08 −0.14 0.02
Burden 0.13 −0.28**** 0.40**** Limitations
Wife-perpetrated violence
First, the sample size is small for time series analysis, especially
Frequency 0.25*** −0.27**** 0.37****
Episode severity 0.15# −0.03 0.00
for determining dynamic pattern. However, previous studies
Burden 0.25*** −0.21* 0.28****
suggest that stable measures of approximate entropy [28] and LZ
complexity [31] can be obtained with as few as 50 and 30 data
#P ≤ .10; *P ≤ .05; **P ≤ .01; ***P ≤ .005; ****P ≤ .001. points, respectively. Dynamic patterns have been assigned using
data sets with as few as 100 data points [32]; studies of corporate
innovations have used 50, 74 and 102 data points [33]. Second, it
(approximate entropy) but insensitivity to conditions (Lyapunov is unclear whether women accurately reported the level of violence
exponent)] reinforces the possibility that IPV is a complex phenom- perpetrated by their partners or themselves. However, Regan et al.
enon, not explainable by a single behavioural model. One possible [50] found that violence reports by husbands and wives were
explanation is that none of the three theories is correct; either a new highly correlated. Finally, the predominance of Hispanics within
theory is needed or IPV represents a ‘dynamic disorder’, a disorder the sample may limit the generalizability of the findings. Caetano
defined by its own dynamics rather than any ‘classical’ cause [46]. et al. [51] found that, over a 5-year period, Hispanics were 2.5
Another possibility is that the dynamic pattern may evolve over times as likely as Anglos to initiate IPV, while reporting violence
time, depending on stressors, resources and support. Thus, IPV may recurrence rate four times higher.
begin as a sudden, unexpected explosion as family systems theory
would predict, but over time such violence may become tolerated by
the couple. Eventually, the husband may realize that the violence is Conclusion
not the only strategy that works for him, and power and control
wheel strategies emerge. Finally, after years of abuse and loss of In conclusion, IPV is rarely a predictable, periodic phenomenon;
control, these strategies are no longer necessary to achieve control no one behavioural model seems to describe the violence dynam-
of the relationship and the predictable cycle of violence pattern ics for all violent relationships. Yet, the measures of non-linearity
takes over. A final possible explanation is that IPV is a conglomerate and specific dynamic patterns correlate with different violent fea-
of different couples in different environments yielding different tures of these relationships. These observations may have impor-
dynamics; no one behavioural model will ever explain every violent tant implications for our understanding of the phenomenon and for
relationship. intervention.
The observations of non-linearity and varying dynamic patterns
have potential treatment implications. First, non-specific
Acknowledgements
approaches such as control/ anti-control interventions [47], the
presence of a third individual [7] or mindfulness approaches [48] This study was funded through a grant from the National Science
could alter the violence dynamics. Second, different approaches Foundation (#0826812). Automated data collection was provided
could be applied depending on the dynamic pattern of the violence. by the University of Colorado, Department of Family Medicine
Thus, although periodic dynamics should respond in predictable Information Services group. We wish to thank Stephanie Mitchell,
ways to interventions that address stressful triggers, approaches that Kelli Giacomini, Robert Mesec and Wilson Pace for their invalu-
attempt to reinforce positive attractors or nudge negative attractors able assistance.
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