Current Affairs

G M Pitafi
Instructor Current Affairs & Political Science, CSPs
HOD Political Science, RWU
Ph.D. in IR, BUIC
M.Phil. Political Science, PU
M.A. Political Science (Gold Medalist), UoS
Email: pitafigm545@gmail.com
Changing World Order
 Why Changing World Order?
➢USA-China rivalry?

➢Changing nature of global and regional alliances?

➢Shift of economy from Atlantic to Pacific?

➢Developments in the Middle East?

➢Retreat of liberal democracy and rise of authoritarian states?

➢Failure of multilateral platforms (IGOs)?

➢De dollarization?
Understanding World Order: Origin, features,
significance
American World Order
Changing World order: causes & factors
Implications of Changing World Order
Changing World Order & Pakistan
Origin of World Order….
 Human Evolution
o Evolutionary view of human…
oReason
ocommunication
oCuriosity
oMorality

oThere was anarchy in oldest form of society

oAnarchy: no/absence central authority

oHierarchy: presence of central authority

• Anarchy creates;
• War
• Conflict
• Disorder
• violence

Human wanted hierarchy;

• Order
• Peace
• Cooperation
• Progress
• Human aspired and struggled for hierarchy;

1. Institution of family—father as head—hierarchy

2. Institution of tribe—tribal head

3. Village—village head

4. Civilizations—cities

5. City-states—political heads

6. Empires—borderless entities—emperor as head

7. Kingdoms/ monarchies—kings as heads

• War between kingdoms in 15/16th centuries—political & religious reasons

• Treaty of Westphalia 1648

 Features/ Provisions of the Treaty

1) Sovereignty (supreme power) of the states was recognized.

Internal Sovereignty
External Sovereignty

2) Territories/ boundaries of the states were demarcated

3) Secularism was recognized as the key feature of states

4) Diplomacy was considered as the major tool to resolve conflicts

 Sovereignty

Treaty of Boundary
Diplomacy
Westphalia Demarcation

Secularism
• Nation-state/ state came into being

• Different states emerged: Sovereignty, Government, Population and Boundary

• International state system emerged

• Again same issue—hierarchy versus anarchy

• Anarchy in international system

• Needed some rules and regulations to regulate international system—World

order
 Meaning of World order

• Rules, norms, institutions and regulations through which

international system is regulated.

• It is formulated by powerful state (s)

 Features of World Order

1. According to human nature

2. Worldorder are designed for one continent, two continents and may
be designed for whole world.

3.World orders have multidimensional aspects. They are designed for

political, economic, military and social interests.

4. World orders are intentionally/ purposefully formulated.

Brief History of World Orders

o Anarchy

o Pax Romania

o Pax Islamic

o Pax Britannica

o Pax Americana
So who is necessary for World
order?

Hegemon!
 Hegemony
• Hegemony is one state's holding a main power in the international
system, allowing it to single-handedly dominate the rules and
arrangements by which international political and economic
relations are conducted.
Such a state is called a hegemon.

• Example: Britain in the 19th century

• United States after World War II, Cold War.

 Hegemonic Stability Theory

• Hegemonic stability theory holds that hegemony provides some

order similar to a central government in the international system:

reducing anarchy, deterring aggression, promoting free trade, and

providing a hard currency that can be used as a world standard.

 Significance/ Importance
1. Order
2. Hierarchy
3. Peace
4. Cooperation
5. Conflict resolution
6. Penalizing
7. Public goods
Prerequisite/ Criteria to become a Hegemon
1. Enormous Military Power

2. Enormous Economic power

3. Willingness to take responsibility

4. Global outreach

Soft power—cultural appeal

5. Commitment to sustain world order once it has been created in bad and good
times
6. International legitimacy
 Historical Examples of Hegemony
• There are two major historical
examples of liberal hegemons;

1. Great Britain during

the late nineteenth and
early twentieth century

2. United States after the

Second World War
 Hegemony from British to USA
• Britain was a hegemon & imperial power during the late nineteenth and early
twentieth century: naval, political, economic power

• Its own world order—todays—liberal

• Britain lost its position of hegemony in the early twentieth century (1945 WWII)

• Germany challenge

• The USA
 America from Independence to Hegemon
• Colony of western powers i.e. Britain, French, Portugal, Spain etc.

• Independence from Britain and France in 1776 and initially 13 states

• Gradually expanded and now 50 states

• Political system: liberal democracy

• Economic system: capitalism
• Social system: liberalism/ individualism
• Strategic culture: use of force to achieve foreign policy objectives
 Features of Liberal
Democracy

1. Consent
2. Universal franchise
3. Regular elections
4. Fundamental human rights
5. Liberty—freedoms of speech
6. Separation of power and check and balance
7. Civil society
8. Rule of law
9. Market economy
10. Accountability
Manifest Destiny
World Wars or Hegemonic Wars?
1. Bretton Woods System
• Dollar as an international currency

2. Establishment of international institutions

• IMF, WB & GATT/ WTO

3. Martial Plan
• Reconstruction of Europe

4. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

 American led World Order
oA rules-based free trade system / Capitalist economic system, dollar

oStrong alliances and sufficient military capabilities for effective deterrence

oMultilateral cooperation and international law to solve truly global problems,

such as the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

oThe spread of liberal democracy—fundamental human rights etc.

oSupport to liberty—individual freedom.

 The Consequences of the Cold War
▪ USA became only super power/ hegemon in the world—unipolar
world

▪ Capitalism and liberal democracy was spread all over the world.

▪ Al-Qaeda emerged in the world affairs.

▪ Terrorist attacks appeared in 9/11.

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 End of History
oThis thesis was brought out by American liberal political scientist
Francis Fukuyama in his famous book ‘’End of History and the Last
Man’’ in 1992 after the end of Cold War and disintegration of USSR.

oAccording to him, with the ascendancy of Western liberal

democracy—which occurred after the Cold War (1945–1991) and the
dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991)—humanity has reached "not
just ... the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the
end of history as such: That is, the end-point of mankind's ideological
evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as
the final form of human government.
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 Clash of Civilization
oThis thesis was presented by American Political Scientist Samuel P. Huntington in
his famous book in Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order in
1993

oIt was a response to Fukuyama

o According him, people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary
source of conflict in the post-Cold War world. It means future wars would be
fought not between countries, but between cultures (civilizations)

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Shift of Hegemony in International System
 Main Argument
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants.
• The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress
that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This
phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War
that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: ‘It
was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made
war inevitable.’ Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred
sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them.
• Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America, and
both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries
‘great again’, the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing
to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number
two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could
soon escalate into all-out war.
Hegemonic Wars
The Avoidable War: The Dangers of
a Catastrophic Conflict between
the US and Xi Jinping's China

by
Kevin Rudd
 Main Argument
• His argument contains an intriguing balance of pessimism (competition
between the superpowers is inevitable) and optimism (creative diplomacy could
avert disaster), hence his title, “The Avoidable War”.

• He argues that a war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly,
and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.

• The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is
peculiarly volatile.

• It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance,

and ideological incompatibility.
• Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants
can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests
through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.”

• Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war
that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.

• The author argues that Chinese political elites are at least well-
informed about US politics, something that cannot be said of
Americans who still struggle to understand “the domestic
drivers of China’s international policy behaviour”.
• To avoid Thucydides Trap, U.S. and its allies can work on;

1. Dialogue between China and the U.S. to define strategic red

lines on both sides—more communication.

2. Co-operation on global financial stability

3. Attention to climate change

4. Reinforcement of nuclear non-proliferation.

Debate over the Decline of USA Hegemony
 How USA led World Order is Changing?
• Rise of China

• Retreat of democracy and rise of authoritarian states

• USA soft power decline—human rights violations

• Shift of economy from Atlantic to Pacific

• Covid-19 and USA inability to play a leading role

• USA disengagement in the world affairs

• De dollarization
The USA-China Competition / New Cold War/
Changing World Order
Main argument…
• The Decisive Decade by Dr. Jonathan D.T. Ward published in 2023
• This book offers a comprehensive framework for how the United States can,
and must, defeat China on the world stage economically, diplomatically,
militarily, and ideologically.

• International security and American supremacy are at stake—and now is the

time for the US to take action. China’s global power and influence grows every
day. Working from a deep sense of national identity, the Chinese Communist
Party is leading its country toward what it deems “the great rejuvenation of the
Chinese Nation,” and executing a long-term Grand Strategy to topple over its
chief adversary, the United States.
Main argument…
• The Decisive Decade imparts three takeaways:

1. the 2020s is the determinative decade in the US-China competition and the United
States must force a “Great Divergence” between the two nations and their worldviews

2. economic power is the key to victory and private industry currently holds that key

3. the America must understand its adversary in order to defeat it, and out of this
comprehension must come a new grand strategy

• Ward analyzes each of these arguments through the four arenas of state power:
economic, diplomatic, military, and information—or as he deems it, the arena of ideas.
• As China becomes increasingly repressive domestically and aggressive
overseas, it threatens to upend America’s global dominance at every turn. Ward
provides novel and practical strategies that the USA government, as well as her
businesses and her citizens, can utilize to undermine the USA’s adversary.
Exhaustive campaigns in the economic, diplomatic, military, and ideological
arenas, he argues, must be taken to achieve victory.

• With expert analysis of the history of US-China relations, as well as insight into
how the Russia-Ukrainian war can inform the USA strategic thinking, The
Decisive Decade presents a unique toolkit for the USA triumph over China. The
USA can succeed, but it won’t be easy; it will take all of our nation’s ingenuity,
confidence, and willpower to win.
The USA Grand Strategy Against China
 America from Independence to Hegemon
• Colony of western powers i.e. Britain, French, Portugal, Spain etc.

• Independence from Britain and France in 1776 and initially 13 states

• Gradually expanded and now 50 states

• Political system: liberal democracy

• Economic system: capitalism
• Social system: liberalism/ individualism
• Strategic culture: use of force to achieve foreign policy objectives
 Features of Liberal
Democracy

1. Consent
2. Universal franchise
3. Regular elections
4. Fundamental human rights
5. Liberty—freedoms of speech
6. Separation of power and check and balance
7. Civil society
8. Rule of law
9. Market economy
10. Accountability
Manifest Destiny
The USA Grand Strategy Against China

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