Projections of Education

Statistics to 2025
Forty-fourth Edition

2022
2022 2024
2024
21
021 2023
2023 2025
2025
NCES 2017-019 U . S . D E PA R T M E N T O F E D U C AT I O N
 Projections of Education
Statistics to 2025
Forty-fourth Edition

SEPTEMBER 2017

William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics

Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Inc.

NCES 2017-019

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

U.S. Department of Education
Betsy DeVos
Secretary of Education

Institute of Education Sciences

T. Brock
Commissioner of the National
Center for Education Research
Delegated the Duties of the Director

National Center for Education Statistics

Peggy G. Carr
Acting Commissioner

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting
data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate to collect, collate, analyze,
and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United States; conduct and publish reports and
specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving
their statistical systems; and review and report on education activities in foreign countries.

NCES activities are designed to address high-priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, complete, and
accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high-quality data to the U.S. Department
of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, practitioners, data users, and the general public. Unless
specifically noted, all information contained herein is in the public domain.

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This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names,
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Suggested Citation
Hussar, W.J., and Bailey, T.M. (2017). Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 (NCES 2017-019). U.S. Department of Education,
Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Content Contact
William J. Hussar
(202) 245-6389
william.hussar@ed.gov
 Foreword
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 is the 44th report Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology
in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and describes the models and assumptions used to develop
and secondary schools and degree-granting postsecondary the national and state projections. The enrollment models
institutions. This report provides revisions of projections use enrollment data and population estimates and projections
shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 and from NCES, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the economic
projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and forecasting service IHS Global Inc. The models are based on
expenditures to the year 2025. the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future.
The models also use projections of economic variables from
In addition to projections at the national level, the report
IHS Global Inc.
includes projections of public elementary and secondary
school enrollment and public high school graduates to the The projections presented in this report are based on
year 2025 at the state level. The projections in this report assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net
were produced by the National Center for Education immigration, and mortality rate from the Census Bureau.
Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, For further information, see appendix A.
and others with state-level projections developed using a
consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant
detailed projections prepared for individual states. Thomas D. Snyder, Supervisor
Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are Annual Reports and Information Staff
the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. National Center for Education Statistics
NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state,
or local education policies that may affect education statistics.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 iii

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 Contents
Page
Foreword ...............................................................................................................................................................................iii
List of Reference Tables ........................................................................................................................................................ vii
List of Figures........................................................................................................................................................................ xi

About This Report.................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Projections .................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Limitations of Projections ............................................................................................................................................. 1

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment .........................................................................................................3

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 3
Accuracy of Projections.................................................................................................................................................. 3
National ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4
State and Regional (Public School Data)........................................................................................................................ 6
Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) ............................................................................................................................. 8

Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers ...............................................................................................................9

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Accuracy of Projections.................................................................................................................................................. 9
Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools ........................................................................................................... 10

Section 3. High School Graduates.................................................................................................................................13

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 13
Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 13
National ...................................................................................................................................................................... 14
State and Regional (Public School Data)...................................................................................................................... 15
Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data) ........................................................................................................................... 17

Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education ....................................................................19

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 19
Current Expenditures .................................................................................................................................................. 20

Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions .........................................................................23

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 23
Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 23
Total Enrollment ......................................................................................................................................................... 24
Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution............................................................................... 25
First-Time Freshmen Enrollment ................................................................................................................................ 29

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 v

 Page

Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred ................................................................................................................31

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Accuracy of Projections................................................................................................................................................ 31
Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient ........................................................................................................ 32

Reference Tables............................................................................................................................................................35

Technical Appendixes....................................................................................................................................................69
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology .................................................................................................71
A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology.............................................................................................................. 71
A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment ................................................................................................................ 78
A.2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers ..................................................................................................................... 88
A.3. High School Graduates ........................................................................................................................................ 95
A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education........................................................................... 100
A.5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions................................................................................ 104
A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred....................................................................................................................... 124
Appendix B. Supplementary Tables ............................................................................................................................127
Appendix C. Data Sources ..........................................................................................................................................135
Appendix D. References ..............................................................................................................................................149
Appendix E. List of Abbreviations ..............................................................................................................................151
Appendix F. Glossary ..................................................................................................................................................153

vi Contents
 List of Reference Tables
Table Page
1. Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control
of institution: Selected years, 1869–70 through fall 2025 ...................................................................................... 37
2. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through
fall 2025................................................................................................................................................................ 38
3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years,
fall 1990 through fall 2025 ................................................................................................................................... 40
4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected
years, fall 1990 through fall 2025 .......................................................................................................................... 42
5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990
through fall 2025 .................................................................................................................................................. 44
6. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/
ethnicity and region: Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2025 ........................................................................... 46
7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/
ethnicity and level of education: Fall 1999 through fall 2025 ................................................................................ 48
8. Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher
hires: Selected years, fall 1955 through fall 2025 ................................................................................................... 50
9. High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2025–26 .......................... 51
10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980–81 through 2025–26 .......... 52
11. Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998–99 through 2025–26 ......................................................... 54
12. Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools:
1989–90 through 2025–26 ................................................................................................................................... 55
13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student,
and control of institution: Selected years, 1947 through 2025............................................................................... 56
14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution,
attendance status, and sex of student: Selected years, 1970 through 2025 ............................................................. 58
15. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age:
Selected years, 1970 through 2025 ........................................................................................................................ 60
16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,
sex of student, and control and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2025 ......................................... 62
17. Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,
sex of student, and control of institution: 1967 through 2025 .............................................................................. 64
18. Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary
institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2025 ........... 65
19. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years,
1976 through 2025 ............................................................................................................................................... 66
20. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level of
institution: 1967 through 2025............................................................................................................................. 67
21. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years,
1869–70 through 2025–26 ................................................................................................................................... 68

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 vii

Table Page
Appendix A Text Tables
A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school,
and grade in elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections
of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 .............................................. 81
B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs
constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of
Education Statistics to 2024 .................................................................................................................................... 83
C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondary
school teachers, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to
1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ................................................................................... 91
D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and control
of school: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ............................................................................................................... 96
E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time and
race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ............................................................................................................... 98
F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for
public elementary and secondary education, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from
Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ........................... 102
G. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary
institutions, by lead time, sex, and level of institution: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections
of Education Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 .................................................. 107
H. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary
institutions, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2015 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ..................................................... 109
I. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected first-time freshmen enrollment in degree-granting
postsecondary institutions, by lead time and sex: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ..................................................... 110
J. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred by degree-
granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ..................................................... 125

viii List of Tables

Table Page
Appendix A. Introduction to Projection Methodology
A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2025 ............................................................................................................ 75
A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary
schools and degree-granting postsecondary institutions: MAPEs constructed using projections from
Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ............................. 76
A-3. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting
institutions, part 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 77
A-4. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting
institutions, part 2 ................................................................................................................................................ 77
A-5. Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2013, and fall 2014 through
fall 2025................................................................................................................................................................ 84
A-6. Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2013, and fall 2014
through fall 2025 .................................................................................................................................................. 84
A-7. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–12 enrollment in public elementary
and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections
of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 .............................................. 85
A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–8 enrollment in public elementary
and secondary schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections
of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 .............................................. 86
A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by lead
time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to
1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ................................................................................... 87
A-10. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from
1972 to 2013 ........................................................................................................................................................ 93
A-11. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, and
teaching status: School year 2011–12 .................................................................................................................... 93
A-12. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school:
Selected school years, 1987–88 through 2011–12 ................................................................................................. 93
A-13. Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control
of school: Selected school years, 1993–94 to 1994–95 through 2025–26 to 2026–27 ........................................... 94
A-14. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public
schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education
Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ....................................................................... 99
A-15. Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public
elementary and secondary schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita based on data from
1973–74 to 2012–13 .......................................................................................................................................... 103
A-16. Actual and projected enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex,
attendance status, and age: Fall 2014, fall 2020, and fall 2025 ............................................................................ 111
A-17. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of males at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1981 to 2014 ..................................................... 112
A-18. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of females at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 113
A-19. Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2025 ................... 114
A-20. Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex, age group, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2025 ................... 115
A-21. Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percentage of
total postsecondary enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2014,
and fall 2015 through fall 2025........................................................................................................................... 116
A-22. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 116

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 ix

Table Page
A-23. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 117
A-24. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 118
A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 119
A-26. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ..................................................... 120
A-27. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females at
degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014 ...................................................... 121
A-28. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander
males at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2014........................................ 122
A-29. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander
females at degree-granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2014 ..................................... 123
A-30. Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex based on data from
1970–71 to 2013–14 .......................................................................................................................................... 126

Appendix B. Supplementary Tables

B-1. Annual number of births: 1946 through 2014 .................................................................................................... 128
B-2. Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 2000 through 2025 ............... 129
B-3. Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 2000 through 2025............................................. 130
B-4. Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 2000 through 2025 ............................................ 131
B-5. Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment
from previous year, resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years
2000–01 through 2025–26 ................................................................................................................................. 132
B-6. Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ......... 133

x List of Tables
 List of Figures
Figure Page
1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level:
Fall 2000 through fall 2025..................................................................................................................................... 4
2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school:
Fall 2000 through fall 2025..................................................................................................................................... 5
3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2013
and fall 2025 ........................................................................................................................................................... 6
4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region:
Fall 2007, fall 2013, and fall 2025 .......................................................................................................................... 7
5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity:
Fall 2000 through fall 2025..................................................................................................................................... 8
6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2000
through fall 2025 .................................................................................................................................................. 10
7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control
of school: Fall 2000 through fall 2025................................................................................................................... 11
8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall
2000, fall 2013, and fall 2025 ............................................................................................................................... 12
9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2000–01
through 2025–26 .................................................................................................................................................. 14
10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012–13
and 2025–26......................................................................................................................................................... 15
11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2007–08, 2012–13,
and 2025–26......................................................................................................................................................... 16
12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2000–01
through 2025–26 .................................................................................................................................................. 17
13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2014–15
dollars): School years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ................................................................................................... 20
14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary
schools (in constant 2014–15 dollars): School years 2000–01 through 2025–26 .................................................... 21
15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 2000 through 2025....... 23
16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2000
through fall 2025................................................................................................................................................... 24
17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by age
group: Fall 2000, fall 2014, and fall 2025 ............................................................................................................. 25
18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall
2000 through fall 2025 ......................................................................................................................................... 25
19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance
status: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 ........................................................................................................................ 26
20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level of
degree: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 ....................................................................................................................... 26

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 xi

Figure Page
21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary
institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 ................................................................................... 27
22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control
of institution: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 ............................................................................................................ 28
23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time freshmen fall enrollment in all degree-granting
postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 ............................................................................. 29
24. Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex of recipient: Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ............................................................................ 32
25. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex of recipient: Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ............................................................................ 32
26. Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex of recipient: Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ............................................................................ 33
27. Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by sex of recipient: Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 ............................................................................ 33

xii List of Figures

 About This Report
PROJECTIONS highlights the projected data and begins at the last year of
actual data and ends in 2025. As the last year of historical
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics provides data differs by survey, the year in which the shaded area
projections for key education statistics, including enrollment, begins also differs.
graduates, teachers, and expenditures in elementary and
secondary public and private schools, as well as enrollment Most statements in sections 1 through 6 examine a single
and degrees conferred at degree-granting postsecondary statistic over a period of time. In each case, a trend test
institutions. Included are national data on enrollment and using linear regression was conducted to test for structure in
graduates for at least the past 15 years and projections to the the data over that time period. If the p value for the trend
year 2025. Also included are state-level data on enrollment variable was less than .05, the text states that the statistic has
in public elementary and secondary schools and public either increased or decreased. If the p value was greater than
high schools beginning in 1990, with projections to 2025. .05 and the data for both the first and last years of the time
This report is organized by the level of schooling with period come from a universe sample and/or are projections,
sections 1, 2, 3, and 4 covering aspects of elementary and then the text compares the first and last years in the time
secondary education and sections 5 and 6 covering aspects of period. However, if the data for at least one of the two years
postsecondary education. came from a sample survey, a two-tailed t test at the .05
level was conducted to determine if any apparent difference
There are a number of limitations in projecting some between the data for the two years is not reliably measurable
statistics. Because of this, state-level data on enrollment due to the uncertainty around the data. Depending on the
and graduates in private elementary and secondary schools results of the test, the text will either include a comparison
and on enrollment and degrees conferred in degree- of the two numbers or say that there was no measurable
granting postsecondary institutions are not included. difference between the two numbers.
Neither the actual numbers nor the projections of public
and private elementary and secondary school enrollment Appendix A describes the methodology and assumptions used
include homeschooled students. Projections of elementary to develop the projections; appendix B presents supplementary
and secondary school enrollment and public high school tables; appendix C describes data sources; appendix D is a list
graduates by age, state, and race/ethnicity are not included of the references; appendix E presents a list of abbreviations;
as the projections of the population by age, state, and race/ and appendix F is a glossary of terms.
ethnicity are not presently available. While there were enough
years of data to produce projections of public elementary LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTIONS
and secondary enrollment separately for Asians and Pacific
Islanders, there were not enough years of data to produce Projections of a time series usually differ from the final
separate projections for Asians and Pacific Islanders for either reported data due to errors from many sources, such as the
public high school graduates or enrollment in degree-granting properties of the projection methodologies, which depend
postsecondary institutions. on the validity of many assumptions.
Similar methodologies were used to obtain a uniform set The mean absolute percentage error is one way to express
of projections for each of the 50 states and the District the forecast accuracy of past projections. This measure
of Columbia. These projections are further adjusted to expresses the average of the absolute values of errors in
agree with the national projections of public elementary percentage terms, where errors are the differences between
and secondary school enrollment and public high school past projections and actual data. For example, based on
graduates contained in this report. past editions of Projections of Education Statistics, the mean
absolute percentage errors of public school enrollment in
The summary of projections provides highlights of the
grades prekindergarten through 12 for lead times of 1, 2, 5,
national and state data, while the reference tables and
and 10 years were 0.3, 0.5, 1.2, and 2.4 percent, respectively.
figures present more detail. All calculations within Projections
In contrast, mean absolute percentage errors of private school
of Education Statistics are based on unrounded estimates.
enrollment in grades prekindergarten through 8 for lead
Therefore, the reader may find that a calculation, such as a
times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years were 3.1, 5.8, 8.3, and 22.2
difference or percentage change, cited in the text or figure
percent, respectively. For more information on mean absolute
may not be identical to the calculation obtained by using
percentage errors, see table A-2 in appendix A.
the rounded values shown in the accompanying tables. Most
figures in this report present historical and forecasted data
from 2000 through 2025. The shaded area of these figures
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 1
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 Section 1
Elementary and
Secondary Enrollment
INTRODUCTION
Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment was 55 million in fall 2013, representing a 4 percent
increase since fall 2000 (table 1). Between fall 2013, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2025, a further
increase of 2 percent is expected. Public school enrollment is projected to be higher in 2025 than in 2013 while private
school enrollment is projected to be lower. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2025 than in 2013 for
Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders, and students of Two or more races (table 6). Enrollment is projected to be lower for
Whites, American Indians/Alaska Natives, and about the same for Blacks. Public school enrollments are projected to be
higher in 2025 than in 2013 for the South and West, and to lower for the Northeast and Midwest (table 3).

Factors affecting the projections Factors that were not considered

The grade progression rate method was used to project school The projections do not assume changes in policies or
enrollments. This method assumes that future trends in factors attitudes that may affect enrollment levels. For example,
affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It they do not account for changing state and local policies
implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, on prekindergarten (preK) and kindergarten programs.
deaths, nonpromotion, transfers to and from public schools, Continued expansion of these programs could lead to higher
and state level migration. See appendixes A.0 and A.1 for enrollments at the elementary school level. Projections
more details. exclude the number of students who are homeschooled.
Students of Two or more races
This is the fifth edition of Projections of Education Statistics
to include actual and projected numbers for enrollment in
public elementary and secondary schools for students of Two
or more races. Collection of enrollment data for this racial/
ethnic group began in 2008. The actual values from 2008
through 2013 and all the projected values for enrollments
of the other racial/ethnic groups are lower than they would
have been if this racial/ethnic category had not been added.

Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from the past 32 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean
absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out for projections of public school enrollment
in grades preK–12 were 0.3, 0.5, 1.2, and 2.4 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that the
methodology used by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has produced projections that have, on aver-
age, deviated from actual observed values by 0.3 percent. For projections of public school enrollment in grades preK–8,
the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 0.3, 0.6, 1.4, and 2.9 percent, respectively, while the MAPEs
for projections of public school enrollment in grades 9–12 were 0.4, 0.7, 1.2, and 2.4 percent, respectively, for the same
lead times. An analysis of projection errors from the past 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that
the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out for projections of private school enrollment in grades preK–12 were
2.8, 5.5, 7.3, and 18.6 percent, respectively. For projections of private school enrollment in grades preK–8, the MAPEs
for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 3.1, 5.8, 8.3, and 22.2 percent, respectively, while the MAPEs for projec-
tions of private school enrollment in grades 9–12 were 2.9, 4.2, 4.1, and 7.2 percent, respectively, for the same lead
times. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 3

NATIONAL
Total elementary and secondary Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and
enrollment secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2000 through fall 2025

S increased 4 percent between Enrollment (in millions)

2000 and 2013 (53.4 million
versus 55.4 million); and
S is projected to increase 2 percent
between 2013 and 2025 to 56.5
million. Total

Enrollment in prekindergarten
through grade 8
S was 2 percent higher in 2013
(39.3 million versus 38.6
million) than in 2000; and
S is projected to increase 2 percent
between 2013 and 2025 to 40.0
million.
Enrollment in grades 9–12
S increased 9 percent between
2000 and 2013 (14.8 million
NOTE: PreK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and
versus 16.1 million); and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that
S is projected to increase 3 percent offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in
the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from
between 2013 and 2025 to 16.5 the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors
million. of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data
For more information: (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–01 through 2013–14;
Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2001–02 through 2013–14; and National Elementary
Tables 1 and 2 and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

4 Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and
secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 Enrollment by control of
school
Enrollment (in millions)
Enrollment in public elementary
and secondary schools
S increased 6 percent between
2000 and 2013; and
S is projected to increase 3 percent
between 2013 and 2025.
Enrollment in private elementary
and secondary schools
T decreased 13 percent between
2000 and 2013; and
T is projected to decrease by 6
percent between 2013 and 2025.

NOTE: Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer
kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall
of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the
PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of
selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data
(CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–01 through 2013–14; For more information:
Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2001–02 through 2013–14; and National Elementary
and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.) Table 1

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 5

STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA)
Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and
Enrollment by state secondary schools, by state: Fall 2013 and fall 2025
The expected 3 percent national
increase in public school enrollment
between 2013 and 2025 plays out
differently among the states.
S Enrollments are projected to be
higher in 2025 than in 2013
for 30 states and the District
of Columbia, with projected
enrollments
• 5 percent or more higher in
21 states and the District of
Columbia; and
• less than 5 percent higher
in 9 states.
T Enrollments are projected to be
lower in 2025 than in 2013 for 20
states, with projected enrollments 5 percent or more lower in 2025 than in 2013
Less than 5 percent lower in 2025 than in 2013
• 5 percent or more lower in 9
Less than 5 percent higher in 2025 than in 2013
states; and
5 percent or more higher in 2025 than in 2013
• less than 5 percent lower in
11 states.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary
schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Although rounded numbers
are displayed, the figures are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
For more information: Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,”
2013–14; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980
Tables 3 through 5 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

6 Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and
secondary schools, by region: Fall 2007, fall 2013, and fall 2025 Enrollment by region
Public elementary and secondary
Enrollment (in millions)
enrollment is projected to
T decrease 5 percent between
2013 and 2025 for students in
the Northeast;
T decrease 3 percent between
2013 and 2025 for students in
the Midwest;
S increase 8 percent between 2013
and 2025 in the South; and
S increase 4 percent between 2013
and 2025 in the West.

2007 (actual) 2013 (actual) 2025 (projected)

NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in
each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary
schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Some data have been revised
from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2007–08 and For more information:
2013–14; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through
2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)
Tables 3 through 5

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 7

RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA)
Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and
Enrollment by race/ secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2000 through fall 2025
ethnicity
Enrollment (in millions)
Enrollment in public elementary and
secondary schools is projected to
T decrease 7 percent between 2013 and
2025 for students who are White;
„ be about the same number in 2013
and 2025 for students who are Black;
S increase 18 percent between 2013 and
2025 for students who are Hispanic;
S increase 21 percent between 2013
and 2025 for students who are Asian/
Pacific Islander;
T decrease 16 percent between 2013
and 2025 for students who are
American Indian/Alaska Native; and
S increase 23 percent between 2013 and
2025 for students who are of Two or
more races. (The line for this racial/ NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students
ethnic group in figure 5 begins in 2010 not reported by race/ethnicity were prorated by state and grade to match state totals. Data on
students of Two or more races were not collected separately prior to 2008 and data on students
when data for that group are available of Two or more races from 2008 and 2009 were not reported by all states. Only in 2010 and later
for all 50 states and the District of years were those data available for all 50 states. Total counts of ungraded students were prorated
Columbia.) to prekindergarten through grade 8 and grades 9 through 12 based on prior reports. Some data
have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected
education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
For more information: of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–01
Tables 6 and 7 through 2013–14; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
Projection Model, 1994 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

8 Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

 Section 2
Elementary and
Secondary Teachers
INTRODUCTION
Between fall 2013, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2025, the number of teachers in elementary and
secondary schools is projected to rise (table 8). The increase is projected to occur in public schools. The number of
teachers in private schools in 2025 is projected to be lower than in 2013. Both public and private schools are projected
to experience a decline in pupil/teacher ratios. The annual number of new teacher hires is projected to be higher in 2025
than in 2013 in public schools and lower in 2025 than in 2013 in private schools.

Factors affecting the projections Factors that were not considered

The projections of the number of elementary and secondary The projections do not take into account possible changes in
teachers are related to projected levels of enrollments and the number of teachers due to the effects of government policies.
education revenue receipts from state sources per capita.
For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.2. About pupil/teacher ratios
The overall elementary and secondary pupil/teacher ratio
and pupil/teacher ratios for public and private schools were
computed based on elementary and secondary enrollment
and the number of classroom teachers by control of school.

About new teacher hires

A teacher is considered to be a new teacher hire for a
certain control of school (public or private) for a given year
if the teacher teaches in that control that year but had not
taught in that control in the previous year. A teacher who
moves from teaching in one control of school to the other
control is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who
moves from one school to another school in the same control
is not considered a new teacher hire.

Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from the past 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics that included projections
of teachers indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of classroom teachers in public
elementary and secondary schools were 0.7 percent for 1 year out, 1.5 percent for 2 years out, 3.1 percent for 5 years out,
and 5.8 percent for 10 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be
within 0.7 percent of the actual value, on average. For more information on the MAPEs of different National Center for
Education Statistics (NCES) projection series, see table A-2 in appendix A.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 9

TEACHERS IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS
Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers,
Number of teachers by control of school: Fall 2000 through fall 2025
The total number of elementary and Teachers (in millions)
secondary teachers
S increased 6 percent between
2000 and 2013 (3.4 million
versus 3.6 million), a period of
13 years; and
S is projected to increase 6
percent between 2013 and
2025 to 3.8 million, a period
of 12 years.
The number of teachers in public
elementary and secondary schools
S increased 6 percent between
2000 and 2013 (2.9 million
versus 3.1 million); and
S is projected to increase 7
percent between 2013 and NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-
2025 to 3.3 million. numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from
the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school
The number of teachers in private teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten or higher
elementary and secondary schools grades. Counts of public school teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12. Some
data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of
S was 4 percent higher in 2013 selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
(424,000 versus 431,000) than SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–
in 2000; and 01 through 2013–14; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2001–02 through
T is projected to be 2 percent 2013–14; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2025. (This figure
was prepared April 2016.)
lower in 2025 to 433,000 than
in 2013.

For more information:

Table 8

10 Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in
elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2000 Pupil/teacher ratios
through fall 2025 The pupil/teacher ratio in all
elementary and secondary schools
Ratio
T was lower in 2013 than in 2000
(15.6 versus 15.9); and
T is projected to decrease to 15.0
in 2025.
The pupil/teacher ratio in public
elementary and secondary schools
S was higher in 2013 than in 2000
(16.1 versus 16.0); and
T is projected to decrease to 15.5
in 2025.
The pupil/teacher ratio in private
elementary and secondary schools
T decreased from 14.5 to 12.2
between 2000 and 2013; and
NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd- T is projected to decrease to 11.8
numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from in 2025.
the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school
teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten
or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten
through grade 12. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute
percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–01
through 2013–14; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2001–02 through
2013–14; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025; For more information:
and Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2025. (This figure was Table 8
prepared April 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 11

 Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new
New teacher hires teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 2000, fall 2013, and fall 2025
The total number of new teacher
Teachers (in thousands)
hires
S was 10 percent higher in 2013
than in 1999 (334,000 versus
305,000); and
S is projected to increase 5 percent
between 2013 and 2025, to
350,000.
The number of new teacher hires
in public schools
S was 10 percent higher in 2013
than in 1999 (244,000 versus
222,000); and
S is projected to increase 9 percent
between 2013 and 2025, to
Total Public Private
267,000.
The number of new teacher hires
in private schools
S was 9 percent higher in 2013 NOTE: Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). A teacher is considered to be a new
than in 1999 (90,000 versus hire for a public or private school if the teacher had not taught in that control of school in the previous
year. A teacher who moves from a public to private or a private to public school is considered a new
83,000); and teacher hire, but a teacher who moves from one public school to another public school or one private
T is projected to be 8 percent school to another private school is not considered a new teacher hire. For more information about the
New Teacher Hires Model, see appendix A.2. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Some data
lower in 2025 (83,000) than have been revised from previously published figures.
in 2013. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data
(CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1999–2000 and 2013–14;
Private School Universe Survey (PSS), 1999–2000 and 2013–14; Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS),
For more information: “Public School Teacher Data File,” and “Private School Teacher Data File,” 1999–2000 and 2011–12;
Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2025, and New Teacher Hires
Table 8 Projection Model, 1988 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

12 Section 2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers

 Section 3
High School Graduates
INTRODUCTION
The number of high school graduates increased nationally by 22 percent between 2000–01 and 2012–13, the last year of
actual data for public schools (table 9). The number of high school graduates is projected to be 5 percent higher in 2025–26
than in 2012–13. The number of public high school graduates is projected to be higher in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 while the
number of private high school graduates is projected to be lower. The numbers of public high school graduates are projected to
be higher in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 in the South, West, and Midwest and lower in the Northeast (table 10).

Factors affecting the projections About high school graduates

The projections of high school graduates are related to A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has
projections of 12th-graders and the historical relationship received formal recognition from school authorities, by the
between the number of 12th-graders and the number of granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course
high school graduates. The methodology implicitly includes of study. This definition does not include other high school
the net effect of factors such as dropouts, transfers to and completers or high school equivalency recipients. Projections
from public schools, and state-level migration. For more of graduates could be affected by changes in policies
details, see appendixes A.0 and A.3. influencing graduation requirements.
High school graduates of Two or more races
This is the third edition of Projections of Education Statistics
to include actual and projected numbers for high school
graduates of Two or more races. Collection of high school
graduate data for this racial/ethnic group began in 2008–09.
The actual values from 2008–09 through 2011–12 and all
the projected values for high school graduates of the other
racial/ethnic groups are lower than they would have been if
this racial/ethnic category had not been added.

Accuracy of Projections
For National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projections of public high school graduates produced over the last
24 years, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.0, 1.1, 2.5, and
5.1, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.0 percent
of the actual value, on average. For NCES projections of private high school graduates produced over the last 12 years, the
MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.8, 1.5, 4.9, and 4.9 percent, respectively. For more information,
see table A-2 in appendix A.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 13

NATIONAL
Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of
The total number of high school school: School years 2000–01 through 2025–26
graduates
S increased 22 percent between High school graduates (in millions)
2000–01 and 2012–13 (2.8
million versus 3.5 million), a
period of 12 years; and
S is projected to increase 5 percent
between 2012–13 and 2025–26
to 3.7 million.
The number of public high school
graduates
S increased 23 percent between
2000–01 and 2012–13 (2.6
million versus 3.2 million); and
S is projected to increase 6 percent
between 2012–13 and 2025–26
to 3.4 million.
The number of private high school
graduates
S increased 11 percent between NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-
2000–01 and 2012–13 numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding
(279,000 versus 309,000); and year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Includes
graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately
T is projected to decrease 10 reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from
percent between 2012–13 and previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can
be found in table A-2, appendix A.
2025–26 to 279,000. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2001–02
For more information: through 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2010–11 through 2013–14; Private
School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2001–02 through 2013–14; and National High School
Table 9 Graduates Projection Model, 1972–73 through 2025–26. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

14 Section 3. High School Graduates

 STATE AND REGIONAL (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA)
Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school
graduates, by state: School years 2012–13 and 2025–26 High school graduates by
state
The number of public high school
graduates is projected to be higher in
2025–26 than in 2012–13. This plays
out differently among the states.
S High school graduates are
projected to be higher in
2025–26 than in 2012–13 for
34 states and the District of
Columbia, with projected high
school graduates
• 5 percent or more higher in
28 states and the District of
Columbia; and
• less than 5 percent higher in
6 states.
T High school graduates are
5 percent or more lower in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 projected to be lower in
Less than 5 percent lower in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 2025–26 than in 2012–13 for
Less than 5 percent higher in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 16 states, with projected high
5 percent or more higher in 2025–26 than in 2012–13 school graduates
• 5 percent or more lower in 8
NOTE: Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other states; and
programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates.
Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public
• less than 5 percent lower in
high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A.
8 states.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
Core of Data (CCD), “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2012–13; and State Public For more information:
High School Graduates Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was
prepared April 2016.) Table 10

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 15

 Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by
High school graduates by region: School years 2007–08, 2012–13, and 2025–26
region
The number of public high school High school graduates (in thousands)
graduates is projected to
T decrease 3 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 in the
Northeast;
S increase 1 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 in the
Midwest;
S increase 14 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 in the
South; and
S increase 7 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 in the
West.

NOTE: Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs,
when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. See the glossary
for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates
by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded
numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
For more information: of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2008–09;
“State Dropout and Completion Data,” 2012–13; and State Public High School Graduates
Table 10 Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

16 Section 3. High School Graduates

 RACE/ETHNICITY (PUBLIC SCHOOL DATA)
Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by
race/ethnicity: School years 2000–01 through 2025–26 High school graduates by
race/ethnicity
High school graduates (in millions)
The number of public high school
graduates is projected to
T decrease 9 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26
(1,791,000 versus 1,635,000) for
students who are White;
S be 3 percent higher in 2025–26
than in 2012–13 (474,000 versus
462,000) for students who are
Black;
S increase 44 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 (640,000
versus 921,000) for students who
are Hispanic;
S increase 28 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 (179,000
NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Data on students of Two or versus 229,000) for students who
more races were not collected separately prior to 2007–08, and data on students of Two or
more races from 2007–08 through 2009–10 were not reported by all states. Therefore, the data are Asian/Pacific Islander;
are not comparable to figures for 2010–11 and later years. Mean absolute percentage errors T decrease 18 percent between
of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. Some data have been
revised from previously published figures. 2012–13 and 2025–26 (31,000
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common versus 25,000) for students who
Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” are American Indian/Alaska
2000–01 through 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2010–11 and 2012–13;
and National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1995–96 Native; and
through 2025–26. (This figure was prepared April 2016.) S increase 35 percent between
2012–13 and 2025–26 (66,000
versus 88,000) for students who
are of Two or more races.

For more information:

Table 11

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 17

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 Section 4
Expenditures for Public Elementary
and Secondary Education
INTRODUCTION
Current expenditures (e.g., instruction and support services) for public elementary and secondary education are
projected to increase 17 percent in constant dollars (adjusted for inflation) between school years 2012–13, the last year
of actual data, and 2025–26 (table 12).

Factors affecting the projections Factors that were not considered

The projections of current expenditures are related to Many factors that may affect future school expenditures were
projections of economic growth as measured by disposable not considered in the production of these projections. Such
income per capita and assistance by state governments to factors include policy initiatives as well as potential changes
local governments. For more details, see appendixes A.0 in the age distribution of elementary and secondary teachers
and A.4. as older teachers retire and are replaced by younger teachers,
or as older teachers put off retirement for various reasons.

About constant dollars and current dollars

Throughout this section, projections of current expenditures
are presented in constant 2014–15 dollars. The reference
tables, later in this report, present these data both in constant
2014–15 dollars and in current dollars. The projections were
developed in constant dollars and then placed in current
dollars using projections for the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
(table B-6 in appendix B).

Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past 25 editions of Projections of Education Statistics that
contained expenditure projections indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for total current expenditures
in constant dollars were 1.6 percent for 1 year out, 2.6 percent for 2 years out, 2.6 percent for 5 years out, and 5.4
percent for 10 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.6
percent of the actual value, on average. MAPEs for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in constant dollars
were 1.6 percent for 1 year out, 2.5 percent for 2 years out, 2.8 percent for 5 years out, and 6.5 percent for 10 years out.
See appendix A for further discussion of the accuracy of recent projections of current expenditures, and see table A-2 in
appendix A for the MAPEs of these projections.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 19

CURRENT EXPENDITURES
Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary
Current expenditures and secondary schools (in constant 2014–15 dollars): School years
Current expenditures in constant 2000–01 through 2025–26
2014–15 dollars Expenditures (in billions)
$800
S increased 16 percent from Projected
2000–01 to 2012–13 ($471 700
billion versus $548 billion), a
period of 12 years; and 600
S are projected to increase 17
percent, to $642 billion, from 500
2012–13 to 2025–26, a period
of 13 years. 400

300

200

100

0
2000−01 2005−06 2010−11 2015−16 2020−21 2025−26
School year

NOTE: Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all
urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about
CPI, see table B-6 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food
services, and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published
figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table
A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
For more information: of Data (CCD), “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2000–01 through 2012–13; Public
Table 12 Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, 1969–70 through
2025–26. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

20 Section 4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education

Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment
in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2014–15 Current expenditures per
dollars): School years 2000–01 through 2025–26 pupil
Current expenditures per pupil in
Expenditures (in thousands)
fall enrollment in constant 2014–15
$14
Projected dollars
12 S increased 10 percent from
2000–01 to 2012–13 ($10,000
10 versus $11,000); and
S are projected to increase 13
8 percent, to $12,500, from
2012–13 to 2025–26.
6

0
2000−01 2005−06 2010−11 2015−16 2020−21 2025−26
School year

NOTE: Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban
consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about CPI, see
table B-6 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services,
and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix
A. Fall enrollment pertains only to students for whom finance data were collected. This enrollment
count differs slightly from enrollment counts reported on some tables.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core
of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2000–01
through 2013–14; “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2000–01 through 2012–13; National
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025; and Elementary and For more information:
Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, 1969–70 through 2025–26. (This figure
was prepared April 2016.)
Table 12

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 21

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 Section 5
Enrollment in Degree-Granting
Postsecondary Institutions
INTRODUCTION
Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to increase 15 percent between fall 2014, the last year
of actual data, and fall 2025 (table 13). Degree-granting institutions are postsecondary institutions that provide study beyond
secondary school and offer programs terminating in an associate’s, baccalaureate, or higher degree and participate in federal
financial aid programs. Differential growth is expected by student characteristics such as age, sex, and attendance status (part-
time or full-time). Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting postsecondary institutions.

Factors affecting the projections Factors that were not considered

The projections of enrollment levels are related to projec- The enrollment projections do not take into account such
tions of college-age populations, disposable income, and factors as the cost of a college education, the economic value
unemployment rates. For more details, see appendixes A.0 of an education, and the impact of distance learning due to
and A.5. An important factor in the enrollment projections is technological changes. These factors may produce changes
the expected change in the population of 18- to 29-year-olds in enrollment levels. The racial/ethnic backgrounds of
from 2000 through 2025 (table B-4 in appendix B). nonresident aliens are not known.

Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for

18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds:
2000 through 2025

Population (in millions)

80
Projected
70
60
50
40 18- to 24-year-old population
30
20
10 25- to 29-year-old population
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year (July 1)

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projections
are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections, ratio-
adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimate.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates,
retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/
datasets/2010-2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August
4, 2015, from http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014.
html; and IHS Global Inc., “U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, 4th Quarter 2015
Short-Term Baseline Projections.” (This table was prepared April 2016.)

Accuracy of Projections
For projections of total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, an analysis of projection errors based
on the past 18 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs)
for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.5, 2.6, 5.5, and 11.3 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction,
this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.5 percent of the actual value, on average. For more
information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 23

TOTAL ENROLLMENT
Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-
Total enrollment in degree- granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2000 through fall 2025
granting postsecondary
institutions Enrollment (in millions)
S increased 32 percent from 2000 25
to 2014 (15.3 million versus Projected
20.2 million), a period of 14
years; and 20

S is projected to increase 15
percent, from 2014 to 2025 15
to 23.3 million, a period of 11
years.
10

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
Table 13 component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
(This figure was prepared April 2016.)

24 Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions

 ENROLLMENT BY SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTROL OF INSTITUTION
Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting
postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2000, fall 2014, and fall 2025 Enrollment by age of student
Enrollment (in millions)
Enrollment in degree-granting
25
postsecondary institutions of
students who are 18 to 24 years old

20
S increased 33 percent between
2000 and 2014; and
S is projected to increase 13
15
13.3 percent between 2014 and 2025.
11.8 Enrollment in degree-granting
10 8.9 postsecondary institutions of
students who are 25 to 34 years old
5.3
5 4.6 4.4 S increased 35 percent between
3.4 3.6
2.9 2000 and 2014; and
S is projected to increase 16
0
18 to 24 25 to 34 35 years and over
percent between 2014 and 2025.
Enrollment in degree-granting
postsecondary institutions of students
2000 (actual) 2014 (actual) 2025 (projected) who are 35 years old and over

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
S increased 23 percent between
federal financial aid programs. Distributions by age are estimates based on samples of the civilian 2000 and 2014; and
noninstitutional population from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. S is projected to increase 20
Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. percent between 2014 and 2025.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 and Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
component; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025; For more information:
and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and
Economic Characteristics of Students,” various years. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)
Table 15

Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting
postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2000 through fall 2025 Enrollment by sex of student
Enrollment (in millions)
Enrollment of males in degree-
25
granting postsecondary institutions
Projected
S increased 31 percent between
2000 and 2014 (6.7 million
20
versus 8.8 million); and
S is projected to increase 13
15 percent between 2014 and 2025
to 9.9 million.
Females Enrollment of females in degree-
10
granting postsecondary institutions
S increased 33 percent between
5 Males 2000 and 2014 (8.6 million
versus 11.4 million); and
0 S is projected to increase 17
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 percent between 2014 and 2025
Year to 13.4 million.
NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment For more information:
component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
(This figure was prepared April 2016.) Tables 13 and 15

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 25

 Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting
Enrollment by attendance postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2000 through fall 2025
status
Enrollment (in millions)
Enrollment of full-time students
25
in degree-granting postsecondary Projected
institutions
S increased 38 percent between 20
2000 and 2014 (9.0 million
versus 12.5 million); and
15
S is projected to increase 15
percent between 2014 and 2025 Full-time
to 14.3 million. 10
Enrollment of part-time students
in degree-granting postsecondary
5 Part-time
institutions
S increased 23 percent between
2000 and 2014 (6.3 million 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
versus 7.8 million); and Year
S is projected to increase 16
percent between 2014 and 2025 NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
to 9.0 million. absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
Tables 13–15 (This figure was prepared April 2016.)

Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting
Enrollment by level of postsecondary institutions, by level of degree: Fall 2000 through fall 2025
student
Enrollment of undergraduate Enrollment (in millions)
students in degree-granting 25
postsecondary institutions Projected

S increased 31 percent between

20
2000 and 2014 (13.2 million
versus 17.3 million); and
Undergraduate
S is projected to increase 14 15
percent between 2014 and 2025
to 19.8 million.
10
Enrollment of postbaccalaureate
students in degree-granting
postsecondary institutions 5
Postbaccalaureate
S increased 35 percent between
2000 and 2014 (2.2 million
0
versus 2.9 million); and 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
S is projected to increase 21
Year
percent between 2014 and 2025
to 3.5 million.
NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
Tables 16–17 component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
(This figure was prepared April 2016.)

26 Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions

Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all
degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2000 Enrollment by race/
through fall 2025 ethnicity
Enrollment (in millions) Enrollment of U.S. residents is
15 projected to
Projected
S increase 3 percent for students
who are White between 2014
White
and 2025 (11.2 million versus
10 11.5 million);
S increase 22 percent for students
Black who are Black between 2014
Asian/Pacific Islander and 2025 (2.8 million versus
5
3.4 million);
Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native S increase 32 percent for students
who are Hispanic between 2014
Two or more races
and 2025 (3.2 million versus
4.2 million);
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 S increase 16 percent for students
Year who are Asian/Pacific Islander
between 2014 and 2025 (1.3
NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal million versus 1.5 million);
financial aid programs. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Because of underreporting
and nonreporting of racial/ethnic data and nonresident aliens, some estimates are slightly lower than T be 2 percent lower in 2025 than
corresponding data in other published tables. Enrollment data in the “race/ethnicity unknown” (all years) in 2014 (151,000 versus 153,000)
and “Two or more races” (2008 and 2009 only) categories of the Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System (IPEDS) “Enrollment component” have been prorated to the other racial/ethnic categories at
for students who are American
the institutional level. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in Indian/Alaska Native; and
table A-2, appendix A. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
S increase 37 percent for students
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment who are of Two or more races
component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Institutions Projection between 2014 and 2025
Model, 1980 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)
(642,000 versus 880,000).

For more information:

Table 19

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 27

 Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting
Enrollment in public and postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2000 through
private institutions fall 2025

Enrollment in public degree- Enrollment (in millions)

granting postsecondary institutions 25
Projected
S increased 25 percent between
2000 and 2014 (11.8 million 20
versus 14.7 million); and
S is projected to increase 16
percent between 2014 and 2025 15 Public institutions
to 17.0 million.
Enrollment in private degree- 10
granting postsecondary institutions
S increased 56 percent between 5 Private institutions
2000 and 2014 (3.6 million
versus 5.6 million); and
S is projected to increase 14 0
percent between 2014 and 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
to 6.3 million. Year

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
Table 13 component; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This
figure was prepared April 2016.)

28 Section 5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions

 FIRST-TIME FRESHMEN ENROLLMENT
Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time freshmen fall
enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: First-time freshmen fall
Fall 2000 through fall 2025 enrollment
Total first-time freshmen fall
Enrollment (in millions) enrollment in all degree-granting
5 postsecondary institutions
Projected
S increased 20 percent from 2000
4 to 2014 (2.4 million versus 2.9
million); and
S is projected to increase 14
3
Total percent between 2014 and 2025
to 3.3 million.
2 First-time freshmen fall enrollment
Females of males in all degree-granting
postsecondary institutions
1
Males S increased 21 percent from 2000
to 2014 (1.1 million versus 1.4
0 million); and
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
S is projected to increase 11
Year percent between 2014 and 2025
to 1.5 million.
NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV First-time freshmen fall enrollment
federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. of females in all degree-granting
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated postsecondary institutions
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment
component; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025; and S increased 20 percent from 2000
First-Time Freshmen Projection Model, 1975 through 2025. (This figure was prepared April 2016.)
to 2014 (1.3 million versus 1.6
million); and
S is projected to increase 17
percent between 2014 and 2025
to 1.8 million.

For more information:

Table 18

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 29

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 Section 6
Postsecondary Degrees Conferred
INTRODUCTION
Long-term growth in enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions has been reflected by increases in the numbers of
associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred (tables 13 and 21). Increases in the number of degrees conferred are
expected to continue between academic year 2013–14, the last year of actual data, and academic year 2025–26.

Factors affecting the projections Factors that were not considered

The projections of the number of degrees conferred are related Some factors that may affect future numbers of degrees,
to projections of the college-age populations developed by such as choice of degree and labor force requirements,
the Census Bureau and college enrollments from this report. were not included in the projection models.
For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.6.
Changes in degree classifications
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
no longer uses the first-professional degree classification.
Beginning with academic year 2013–14, most degrees
formerly classified as first-professional—such as M.D.,
D.D.S., and law degrees—are classified as doctor’s degrees.
However, master’s of divinity degrees are now classified as
master’s degrees. This is the fifth edition of Projections of
Education Statistics to use these new classifications. With
this change, the actual numbers of master’s and doctor’s
degrees conferred are higher than the actual numbers in
Projections of Education Statistics to 2020 and earlier editions
of this report. The revisions of actual numbers are reflected
in the projections.

Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from the past seven editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean
absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, and 5 years out for projections of associate’s degrees conferred
were 2.9, 5.5, and 15.4 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that the methodology used by the
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has produced projections that have, on average, deviated from actual
observed values by 2.9 percent. For projections of bachelor’s degrees conferred, the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, and 5
years out were 0.7, 0.6, and 4.5 percent. No MAPEs were calculated for master’s and doctor’s degrees as only four other
editions of Projections of Education Statistics used the current model for producing their projections due to the changes in
classifications described above. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 31

DEGREES, BY LEVEL OF DEGREE AND SEX OF RECIPIENT
Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by
Associate’s degrees degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient:
The total number of associate’s degrees Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26

S increased 73 percent between Degrees (in thousands)

2000–01 and 2013–14; and
2,500
S is projected to increase 29 Projected
percent between 2013–14 and
2025–26. 2,000
The number of associate’s degrees
awarded to males
1,500
S increased 69 percent between
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
1,000
S is projected to increase 15
percent between 2013–14 and Total
2025–26. 500 Females
The number of associate’s degrees
awarded to females
Males
0
S increased 76 percent between 2000–01 2005–06 2010–11 2015–16 2020–21 2025–26
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
Academic year
S is projected to increase 37
percent between 2013–14 and
2025–26. NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute
percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); IPEDS Fall 2000 through Fall 2014 Completions
component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was
Table 21 prepared June 2016.)

Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by
Bachelor’s degrees degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient:
The total number of bachelor’s degrees Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26

S increased 50 percent between

2000–01 and 2013–14; and Degrees (in thousands)
2,500
S is projected to increase 9 percent Projected
between 2013–14 and 2025–26.
The number of bachelor’s degrees 2,000
awarded to males
S increased 51 percent between 1,500 Total
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
S is projected to increase 6 percent
between 2013–14 and 2025–26. 1,000
Females
The number of bachelor’s degrees
awarded to females 500
Males
S increased 50 percent between
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
0
S is projected to increase 11 2000–01 2005–06 2010–11 2015–16 2020–21 2025–26
percent between 2013–14 and
Academic year
2025–26.
NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute
percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
For more information: Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); IPEDS Fall 2000 through Fall 2014 Completions
Table 21 component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was
prepared April 2016.)

32 Section 6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred

Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by
degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Master’s degrees
Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 The total number of master’s degrees
Degrees (in thousands) S increased 59 percent between
2,500
Projected
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
S is projected to increase 30
percent between 2013–14 and
2,000
2025–26.
The number of master’s degrees
1,500 awarded to males
S increased 53 percent between
1,000
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
S is projected to increase 35
Total
percent between 2013–14 and
500 2025–26.
Females
The number of master’s degrees
Males awarded to females
0
2000–01 2005–06 2010–11 2015–16 2020–21 2025–26 S increased 64 percent between
Academic year 2000–01 and 2013–14; and
S is projected to increase 27
NOTE: Includes some degrees formerly classified as first-professional such as divinity degrees percent between 2013–14 and
(M.Div. and M.H.L./Rav). Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean
absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. 2025–26.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); IPEDS Fall 2000 through Fall 2014 Completions For more information:
component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was
prepared April 2016.)
Table 21

Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by
degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Doctor’s degrees
Academic years 2000–01 through 2025–26 The total number of doctor’s degrees
Degrees (in thousands) S increased 48 percent between
250
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
Projected S is projected to increase 18
percent between 2013–14 and
200 2025–26.
The number of doctor’s degrees
awarded to males
150
Total S increased 33 percent between
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
100 S is projected to increase 16
Males percent between 2013–14 and
2025–26.
50
Females The number of doctor’s degrees
awarded to females
0
S increased 66 percent between
2000–01 2005–06 2010–11 2015–16 2020–21 2025–26
2000–01 and 2013–14; and
Academic year
S is projected to increase 19
NOTE: Doctor’s degrees include Ph.D., Ed.D., and comparable degrees at the doctoral level.
percent between 2013–14 and
Includes most degrees formerly classified as first-professional, such as M.D., D.D.S., and 2025–26.
law degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute
percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); IPEDS Fall 2000 through Fall 2014 Completions For more information:
component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This figure was
prepared April 2016.)
Table 21

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 33

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Reference Tables

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 35

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Table 1. Enrollment in elementary, secondary, and degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution: Selected
years, 1869–70 through fall 2025
[In thousands]

Degree-granting postsecondary
Public elementary and secondary schools Private elementary and secondary schools1 institutions2
Elementary Prekinder- Prekinder-
Total and garten garten
enrollment, secondary, through Grades 9 through Grades 9
Year all levels total Total grade 8 through 12 Total grade 8 through 12 Total Public Private
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1869–70.................................. — — 6,872 6,792 80 — — — 52 — —
1879–80.................................. — — 9,868 9,757 110 — — — 116 — —
1889–90.................................. 14,491 14,334 12,723 12,520 203 1,611 1,516 95 157 — —
1899–1900.............................. 17,092 16,855 15,503 14,984 519 1,352 1,241 111 238 — —
1909–10.................................. 19,728 19,372 17,814 16,899 915 1,558 1,441 117 355 — —
1919–20.................................. 23,876 23,278 21,578 19,378 2,200 1,699 1,486 214 598 — —

1929–30.................................. 29,430 28,329 25,678 21,279 4,399 2,651 2,310 341 1,101 — —
1939–40.................................. 29,539 28,045 25,434 18,832 6,601 2,611 2,153 458 1,494 797 698
1949–50.................................. 31,151 28,492 25,111 19,387 5,725 3,380 2,708 672 2,659 1,355 1,304
Fall 1959 ................................. 44,497 40,857 35,182 26,911 8,271 5,675 4,640 1,035 3,640 2,181 1,459
Fall 1969 ................................. 59,055 51,050 45,550 32,513 13,037 5,500 3 4,200 3 1,300 3 8,005 5,897 2,108
Fall 1979 ................................. 58,221 46,651 41,651 28,034 13,616 5,000 3 3,700 3 1,300 3 11,570 9,037 2,533
Fall 1985 ................................. 57,226 44,979 39,422 27,034 12,388 5,557 4,195 1,362 12,247 9,479 2,768

Fall 1990 ................................. 60,683 46,864 41,217 29,876 11,341 5,648 3 4,512 3 1,136 3 13,819 10,845 2,974
Fall 1991 ................................. 62,087 47,728 42,047 30,503 11,544 5,681 4,550 1,131 14,359 11,310 3,049
Fall 1992 ................................. 63,181 48,694 42,823 31,086 11,737 5,870 3 4,746 3 1,125 3 14,487 11,385 3,103
Fall 1993 ................................. 63,837 49,532 43,465 31,502 11,963 6,067 4,950 1,118 14,305 11,189 3,116
Fall 1994 ................................. 64,385 50,106 44,111 31,896 12,215 5,994 3 4,856 3 1,138 3 14,279 11,134 3,145

Fall 1995 ................................. 65,020 50,759 44,840 32,338 12,502 5,918 4,756 1,163 14,262 11,092 3,169
Fall 1996 ................................. 65,911 51,544 45,611 32,762 12,849 5,933 3 4,755 3 1,178 3 14,368 11,120 3,247
Fall 1997 ................................. 66,574 52,071 46,127 33,071 13,056 5,944 4,759 1,185 14,502 11,196 3,306
Fall 1998 ................................. 67,033 52,526 46,539 33,344 13,195 5,988 3 4,776 3 1,212 3 14,507 11,138 3,369
Fall 1999 ................................. 67,725 52,875 46,857 33,486 13,371 6,018 4,789 1,229 14,850 11,376 3,474

Fall 2000 ................................. 68,685 53,373 47,204 33,686 13,517 6,169 3 4,906 3 1,264 3 15,312 11,753 3,560
Fall 2001 ................................. 69,920 53,992 47,672 33,936 13,736 6,320 5,023 1,296 15,928 12,233 3,695
Fall 2002 ................................. 71,015 54,403 48,183 34,114 14,069 6,220 3 4,915 3 1,306 3 16,612 12,752 3,860
Fall 2003 ................................. 71,551 54,639 48,540 34,201 14,339 6,099 4,788 1,311 16,911 12,859 4,053
Fall 2004 ................................. 72,154 54,882 48,795 34,178 14,618 6,087 3 4,756 3 1,331 3 17,272 12,980 4,292

Fall 2005 ................................. 72,674 55,187 49,113 34,204 14,909 6,073 4,724 1,349 17,487 13,022 4,466
Fall 2006 ................................. 73,066 55,307 49,316 34,235 15,081 5,991 3 4,631 3 1,360 3 17,759 13,180 4,579
Fall 2007 ................................. 73,449 55,201 49,291 34,204 15,086 5,910 4,546 1,364 18,248 13,491 4,757
Fall 2008 ................................. 74,076 54,973 49,266 34,286 14,980 5,707 3 4,365 3 1,342 3 19,103 13,972 5,131
Fall 2009 ................................. 75,163 54,849 49,361 34,409 14,952 5,488 4,179 1,309 20,314 14,811 5,503

Fall 2010 ................................. 75,886 54,867 49,484 34,625 14,860 5,382 3 4,084 3 1,299 3 21,019 15,142 5,877
Fall 2011 ................................. 75,800 54,790 49,522 34,773 14,749 5,268 3,977 1,291 21,011 15,116 5,894
Fall 2012 ................................. 75,748 55,104 49,771 35,018 14,753 5,333 3 4,031 3 1,302 3 20,644 14,885 5,760
Fall 2013 ................................. 75,816 55,440 50,045 35,251 14,794 5,396 4,084 1,312 20,376 14,746 5,630
Fall 20144 ............................... 75,661 55,454 50,132 35,249 14,883 5,322 4,006 1,316 20,207 14,655 5,552

Fall 20154 ............................... 75,810 55,546 50,268 35,298 14,970 5,278 3,968 1,311 20,264 14,789 5,475
Fall 20164 ............................... 76,136 55,620 50,385 35,402 14,983 5,235 3,938 1,298 20,516 14,964 5,552
Fall 20174 ............................... 76,633 55,661 50,477 35,451 15,026 5,183 3,899 1,284 20,972 15,287 5,686
Fall 20184 ............................... 77,075 55,665 50,528 35,491 15,037 5,136 3,873 1,263 21,410 15,604 5,807
Fall 20194 ............................... 77,479 55,726 50,618 35,543 15,075 5,108 3,867 1,242 21,753 15,852 5,900

Fall 20204 ............................... 77,875 55,862 50,774 35,559 15,215 5,088 3,871 1,217 22,013 16,038 5,975
Fall 20214 ............................... 78,321 55,998 50,928 35,541 15,387 5,070 3,877 1,194 22,323 16,261 6,062
Fall 20224 ............................... 78,759 56,146 51,084 35,558 15,526 5,062 3,885 1,177 22,613 16,471 6,143
Fall 20234 ............................... 79,187 56,291 51,225 35,712 15,514 5,065 3,904 1,161 22,896 16,673 6,223
Fall 20244 ............................... 79,565 56,416 51,338 35,878 15,460 5,078 3,923 1,155 23,149 16,858 6,291
Fall 20254 ............................... 79,800 56,510 51,420 36,052 15,368 5,090 3,943 1,147 23,290 16,967 6,323

—Not available. classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a few higher education
1
Beginning in fall 1985, data include estimates for an expanded universe of private institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from previously pub-
schools. Therefore, direct comparisons with earlier years should be avoided. lished figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
2Data for 1869–70 through 1949–50 include resident degree-credit students enrolled at
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Annual
any time during the academic year. Beginning in 1959, data include all resident and Report of the Commissioner of Education, 1870 to 1910; Biennial Survey of Education in the
extension students enrolled at the beginning of the fall term. United States, 1919–20 through 1949–50; Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary
3Estimated. School Systems, 1959 through 1979; Statistics of Nonpublic Elementary and Secondary
4
Projected data. Fall 2014 data for degree-granting institutions are actual. Schools, 1959 through 1980; and Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of
NOTE: Data for 1869–70 through 1949–50 reflect enrollment for the entire school year. Public Elementary and Secondary Education,” 1985–86 through 2013–14; 1985–86 Private
Elementary and secondary enrollment includes students in local public school systems School Survey; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), 1991–92 through 2013–14; National
and in most private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian), but generally Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025; Opening (Fall)
excludes homeschooled children and students in subcollegiate departments of colleges Enrollment in Higher Education, 1959; Higher Education General Information Survey
and in federal schools. Excludes preprimary pupils in private schools that do not offer kin- (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Institutions of Higher Education” surveys, 1969, 1979, and
dergarten or above. Postsecondary data through 1995 are for institutions of higher edu- 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey”
cation, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions (IPEDS-EF:90–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment component;
grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid pro- and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This
grams. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher education table was prepared February 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 37

Table 2. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by level and grade: Selected years, fall 1980 through fall 2025
[In thousands]

Elementary Secondary
Pre-
All kinder- Kinder- 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th Un- 9th 10th 11th 12th Un-
Year grades Total garten garten grade grade grade grade grade grade grade grade graded Total grade grade grade grade graded
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1980..................... 40,877 27,647 96 2,593 2,894 2,800 2,893 3,107 3,130 3,038 3,085 3,086 924 13,231 3,377 3,368 3,195 2,925 366
1985..................... 39,422 27,034 151 3,041 3,239 2,941 2,895 2,771 2,776 2,789 2,938 2,982 511 12,388 3,439 3,230 2,866 2,550 303
1990..................... 41,217 29,876 303 3,306 3,499 3,327 3,297 3,248 3,197 3,110 3,067 2,979 541 11,341 3,169 2,896 2,612 2,381 284
1991..................... 42,047 30,503 375 3,311 3,556 3,360 3,334 3,315 3,268 3,239 3,181 3,020 542 11,544 3,313 2,915 2,645 2,392 278
1992..................... 42,823 31,086 505 3,313 3,542 3,431 3,361 3,342 3,325 3,303 3,299 3,129 536 11,737 3,352 3,027 2,656 2,431 272
1993..................... 43,465 31,502 545 3,377 3,529 3,429 3,437 3,361 3,350 3,356 3,355 3,249 513 11,963 3,487 3,050 2,751 2,424 250
1994..................... 44,111 31,896 603 3,444 3,593 3,440 3,439 3,426 3,372 3,381 3,404 3,302 492 12,215 3,604 3,131 2,748 2,488 244
1995..................... 44,840 32,338 637 3,536 3,671 3,507 3,445 3,431 3,438 3,395 3,422 3,356 500 12,502 3,704 3,237 2,826 2,487 247
1996..................... 45,611 32,762 670 3,532 3,770 3,600 3,524 3,454 3,453 3,494 3,464 3,403 399 12,849 3,801 3,323 2,930 2,586 208
1997..................... 46,127 33,071 695 3,503 3,755 3,689 3,597 3,507 3,458 3,492 3,520 3,415 440 13,056 3,819 3,376 2,972 2,673 216
1998..................... 46,539 33,344 729 3,443 3,727 3,681 3,696 3,592 3,520 3,497 3,530 3,480 449 13,195 3,856 3,382 3,021 2,722 214
1999..................... 46,857 33,486 751 3,397 3,684 3,656 3,691 3,686 3,604 3,564 3,541 3,497 415 13,371 3,935 3,415 3,034 2,782 205
2000..................... 47,204 33,686 776 3,382 3,636 3,634 3,676 3,711 3,707 3,663 3,629 3,538 334 13,517 3,963 3,491 3,083 2,803 177
2001..................... 47,672 33,936 865 3,379 3,614 3,593 3,653 3,695 3,727 3,769 3,720 3,616 304 13,736 4,012 3,528 3,174 2,863 159
2002..................... 48,183 34,114 915 3,434 3,594 3,565 3,623 3,669 3,711 3,788 3,821 3,709 285 14,069 4,105 3,584 3,229 2,990 161
2003..................... 48,540 34,201 950 3,503 3,613 3,544 3,611 3,619 3,685 3,772 3,841 3,809 255 14,339 4,190 3,675 3,277 3,046 150
2004..................... 48,795 34,178 990 3,544 3,663 3,560 3,580 3,612 3,635 3,735 3,818 3,825 215 14,618 4,281 3,750 3,369 3,094 122
2005..................... 49,113 34,204 1,036 3,619 3,691 3,606 3,586 3,578 3,633 3,670 3,777 3,802 205 14,909 4,287 3,866 3,454 3,180 121
2006..................... 49,316 34,235 1,084 3,631 3,751 3,641 3,627 3,586 3,602 3,660 3,716 3,766 170 15,081 4,260 3,882 3,551 3,277 110
2007..................... 49,291 34,204 1,081 3,609 3,750 3,704 3,659 3,624 3,600 3,628 3,700 3,709 139 15,086 4,200 3,863 3,557 3,375 92
2008..................... 49,266 34,286 1,180 3,640 3,708 3,699 3,708 3,647 3,629 3,614 3,653 3,692 117 14,980 4,123 3,822 3,548 3,400 87
2009..................... 49,361 34,409 1,223 3,678 3,729 3,665 3,707 3,701 3,652 3,644 3,641 3,651 119 14,952 4,080 3,809 3,541 3,432 90
2010..................... 49,484 34,625 1,279 3,682 3,754 3,701 3,686 3,711 3,718 3,682 3,676 3,659 77 14,860 4,008 3,800 3,538 3,472 42
2011..................... 49,522 34,773 1,291 3,746 3,773 3,713 3,703 3,672 3,699 3,724 3,696 3,679 77 14,749 3,957 3,751 3,546 3,452 43
2012..................... 49,771 35,018 1,307 3,831 3,824 3,729 3,719 3,690 3,673 3,723 3,746 3,699 76 14,753 3,975 3,730 3,528 3,477 43
2013..................... 50,045 35,251 1,328 3,834 3,885 3,791 3,738 3,708 3,697 3,684 3,748 3,753 85 14,794 3,980 3,761 3,526 3,476 52
Projected
2014..................... 50,132 35,249 1,290 3,723 3,877 3,851 3,799 3,735 3,714 3,714 3,708 3,753 85 14,883 4,038 3,765 3,555 3,474 52
2015..................... 50,268 35,298 1,294 3,733 3,765 3,843 3,859 3,796 3,741 3,731 3,737 3,713 85 14,970 4,038 3,820 3,558 3,502 52
2016..................... 50,385 35,402 1,298 3,746 3,775 3,733 3,851 3,856 3,802 3,759 3,755 3,743 85 14,983 3,995 3,820 3,611 3,506 52
2017..................... 50,477 35,451 1,293 3,730 3,788 3,742 3,740 3,848 3,862 3,820 3,782 3,761 85 15,026 4,027 3,779 3,611 3,557 52
2018..................... 50,528 35,491 1,293 3,732 3,772 3,755 3,750 3,737 3,854 3,881 3,844 3,788 85 15,037 4,046 3,810 3,572 3,557 52
2019..................... 50,618 35,543 1,303 3,761 3,774 3,739 3,763 3,747 3,744 3,872 3,905 3,850 85 15,075 4,075 3,827 3,601 3,519 52
2020..................... 50,774 35,559 1,313 3,788 3,803 3,741 3,747 3,760 3,753 3,761 3,897 3,911 85 15,215 4,142 3,855 3,618 3,548 52
2021..................... 50,928 35,541 1,322 3,816 3,831 3,770 3,749 3,744 3,766 3,771 3,785 3,903 85 15,387 4,208 3,918 3,644 3,564 52
2022..................... 51,084 35,558 1,331 3,842 3,859 3,798 3,778 3,746 3,750 3,784 3,795 3,791 85 15,526 4,199 3,980 3,704 3,590 52
2023..................... 51,225 35,712 1,340 3,867 3,886 3,825 3,806 3,775 3,752 3,768 3,807 3,800 85 15,514 4,078 3,972 3,762 3,649 52
2024..................... 51,338 35,878 1,348 3,890 3,911 3,852 3,833 3,803 3,781 3,770 3,792 3,813 85 15,460 4,089 3,858 3,754 3,707 52
2025..................... 51,420 36,052 1,355 3,911 3,934 3,877 3,860 3,830 3,809 3,799 3,794 3,798 86 15,368 4,103 3,868 3,647 3,699 52

NOTE: Due to changes in reporting and imputation practices, prekindergarten enrollment SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statis-
for years prior to 1992 represent an undercount compared to later years. The total tics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems, 1980–81; Common Core of
ungraded counts of students were prorated to the elementary and secondary levels based Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1985–86
on prior reports. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. through 2013–14; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model,
1972 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

38 Reference Tables
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Table 3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025
Actual total enrollment
Region, state,
and jurisdiction Fall 1990 Fall 2000 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
United States............ 41,216,683 47,203,539 48,540,215 48,795,465 49,113,298 49,315,842 49,290,559 49,265,572 49,360,982 49,484,181 49,521,669 49,771,118 50,044,522
Region
Northeast .......................... 7,281,763 8,222,127 8,292,315 8,271,259 8,240,160 8,257,889 8,122,022 8,052,985 8,092,029 8,071,335 7,953,981 7,959,128 7,961,243
Midwest............................. 9,943,761 10,729,987 10,808,977 10,775,409 10,818,815 10,819,248 10,770,210 10,742,973 10,672,171 10,609,604 10,573,792 10,559,230 10,572,920
South................................. 14,807,016 17,007,261 17,672,745 17,891,987 18,103,166 18,293,633 18,422,773 18,490,770 18,651,889 18,805,000 18,955,932 19,128,376 19,298,714
West .................................. 9,184,143 11,244,164 11,766,178 11,856,810 11,951,157 11,945,072 11,975,554 11,978,844 11,944,893 11,998,242 12,037,964 12,124,384 12,211,645
State
Alabama............................ 721,806 739,992 731,220 730,140 741,761 743,632 742,919 745,668 748,889 755,552 744,621 744,637 746,204
Alaska................................ 113,903 133,356 133,933 132,970 133,288 132,608 131,029 130,662 131,661 132,104 131,167 131,489 130,944
Arizona.............................. 639,853 877,696 1,012,068 1,043,298 1,094,454 1,068,249 1,087,447 1,087,817 1,077,831 1,071,751 1,080,319 1,089,384 1,102,445
Arkansas........................... 436,286 449,959 454,523 463,115 474,206 476,409 479,016 478,965 480,559 482,114 483,114 486,157 489,979
California........................... 4,950,474 6,140,814 6,413,867 6,441,557 6,437,202 6,406,750 6,343,471 6,322,528 6,263,438 6,289,578 6,287,834 6,299,451 6,312,623
Colorado............................ 574,213 724,508 757,693 765,976 779,826 794,026 801,867 818,443 832,368 843,316 854,265 863,561 876,999
Connecticut....................... 469,123 562,179 577,203 577,390 575,059 575,100 570,626 567,198 563,968 560,546 554,437 550,954 546,200
Delaware........................... 99,658 114,676 117,668 119,091 120,937 122,254 122,574 125,430 126,801 129,403 128,946 129,026 131,687
District of Columbia........... 80,694 68,925 78,057 76,714 76,876 72,850 78,422 68,681 69,433 71,284 73,911 76,140 78,153
Florida ............................... 1,861,592 2,434,821 2,587,628 2,639,336 2,675,024 2,671,513 2,666,811 2,631,020 2,634,522 2,643,347 2,668,156 2,692,162 2,720,744
Georgia ............................. 1,151,687 1,444,937 1,522,611 1,553,437 1,598,461 1,629,157 1,649,589 1,655,792 1,667,685 1,677,067 1,685,016 1,703,332 1,723,909
Hawaii................................ 171,708 184,360 183,609 183,185 182,818 180,728 179,897 179,478 180,196 179,601 182,706 184,760 186,825
Idaho ................................. 220,840 245,117 252,120 256,084 261,982 267,380 272,119 275,051 276,299 275,859 279,873 284,834 296,476
Illinois................................. 1,821,407 2,048,792 2,100,961 2,097,503 2,111,706 2,118,276 2,112,805 2,119,707 2,104,175 2,091,654 2,083,097 2,072,880 2,066,990
Indiana............................... 954,525 989,267 1,011,130 1,021,348 1,035,074 1,045,940 1,046,764 1,046,147 1,046,661 1,047,232 1,040,765 1,041,369 1,047,385
Iowa................................... 483,652 495,080 481,226 478,319 483,482 483,122 485,115 487,559 491,842 495,775 495,870 499,825 502,964
Kansas .............................. 437,034 470,610 470,490 469,136 467,525 469,506 468,295 471,060 474,489 483,701 486,108 489,043 496,440
Kentucky............................ 636,401 665,850 663,369 674,796 679,878 683,152 666,225 670,030 680,089 673,128 681,987 685,167 677,389
Louisiana........................... 784,757 743,089 727,709 724,281 654,526 675,851 681,038 684,873 690,915 696,558 703,390 710,903 711,491
Maine................................. 215,149 207,037 202,084 198,820 195,498 193,986 196,245 192,935 189,225 189,077 188,969 185,739 183,995
Maryland ........................... 715,176 852,920 869,113 865,561 860,020 851,640 845,700 843,861 848,412 852,211 854,086 859,638 866,169
Massachusetts.................. 834,314 975,150 980,459 975,574 971,909 968,661 962,958 958,910 957,053 955,563 953,369 954,773 955,739
Michigan............................ 1,584,431 1,720,626 1,757,604 1,751,290 1,742,282 1,722,656 1,692,739 1,659,921 1,649,082 1,587,067 1,573,537 1,555,370 1,548,841
Minnesota.......................... 756,374 854,340 842,854 838,503 839,243 840,565 837,578 836,048 837,053 838,037 839,738 845,404 850,973
Mississippi......................... 502,417 497,871 493,540 495,376 494,954 495,026 494,122 491,962 492,481 490,526 490,619 493,650 492,586
Missouri............................. 816,558 912,744 905,941 905,449 917,705 920,353 917,188 917,871 917,982 918,710 916,584 917,900 918,288
Montana............................ 152,974 154,875 148,356 146,705 145,416 144,418 142,823 141,899 141,807 141,693 142,349 142,908 144,129
Nebraska........................... 274,081 286,199 285,542 285,761 286,646 287,580 291,244 292,590 295,368 298,500 301,296 303,505 307,677
Nevada.............................. 201,316 340,706 385,401 400,083 412,395 424,766 429,362 433,371 428,947 437,149 439,634 445,707 451,831
New Hampshire................ 172,785 208,461 207,417 206,852 205,767 203,572 200,772 197,934 197,140 194,711 191,900 188,974 186,310
New Jersey ....................... 1,089,646 1,313,405 1,380,753 1,393,347 1,395,602 1,388,850 1,382,348 1,381,420 1,396,029 1,402,548 1,356,431 1,372,203 1,370,295
New Mexico....................... 301,881 320,306 323,066 326,102 326,758 328,220 329,040 330,245 334,419 338,122 337,225 338,220 339,244
New York ........................... 2,598,337 2,882,188 2,864,775 2,836,337 2,815,581 2,809,649 2,765,435 2,740,592 2,766,052 2,734,955 2,704,718 2,710,703 2,732,770
North Carolina................... 1,086,871 1,293,638 1,360,209 1,385,754 1,416,436 1,444,481 1,489,492 1,488,645 1,483,397 1,490,605 1,507,864 1,518,465 1,530,857
North Dakota..................... 117,825 109,201 102,233 100,513 98,283 96,670 95,059 94,728 95,073 96,323 97,646 101,111 103,947
Ohio................................... 1,771,089 1,835,049 1,845,428 1,840,032 1,839,683 1,836,722 1,827,184 1,817,163 1,764,297 1,754,191 1,740,030 1,729,916 1,724,111
Oklahoma.......................... 579,087 623,110 626,160 629,476 634,739 639,391 642,065 645,108 654,802 659,911 666,120 673,483 681,848
Oregon .............................. 472,394 546,231 551,273 552,505 552,194 562,574 565,586 575,393 582,839 570,720 568,208 587,564 593,000
Pennsylvania..................... 1,667,834 1,814,311 1,821,146 1,828,089 1,830,684 1,871,060 1,801,971 1,775,029 1,785,993 1,793,284 1,771,395 1,763,677 1,755,236
Rhode Island..................... 138,813 157,347 159,375 156,498 153,422 151,612 147,629 145,342 145,118 143,793 142,854 142,481 142,008
South Carolina.................. 622,112 677,411 699,198 703,736 701,544 708,021 712,317 718,113 723,143 725,838 727,186 735,998 745,657
South Dakota .................... 129,164 128,603 125,537 122,798 122,012 121,158 121,606 126,429 123,713 126,128 128,016 130,471 130,890
Tennessee......................... 824,595 909,161 936,682 941,091 953,928 978,368 964,259 971,950 972,549 987,422 999,693 993,496 993,556
Texas ................................. 3,382,887 4,059,619 4,331,751 4,405,215 4,525,394 4,599,509 4,674,832 4,752,148 4,850,210 4,935,715 5,000,470 5,077,659 5,153,702
Utah................................... 446,652 481,485 495,981 503,607 508,430 523,386 576,244 559,778 571,586 585,552 598,832 613,279 625,461
Vermont............................. 95,762 102,049 99,103 98,352 96,638 95,399 94,038 93,625 91,451 96,858 89,908 89,624 88,690
Virginia .............................. 998,601 1,144,915 1,192,092 1,204,739 1,213,616 1,220,440 1,230,857 1,235,795 1,245,340 1,251,440 1,257,883 1,265,419 1,273,825
Washington....................... 839,709 1,004,770 1,021,349 1,020,005 1,031,985 1,026,774 1,030,247 1,037,018 1,035,347 1,043,788 1,045,453 1,051,694 1,058,936
West Virginia..................... 322,389 286,367 281,215 280,129 280,866 281,939 282,535 282,729 282,662 282,879 282,870 283,044 280,958
Wisconsin.......................... 797,621 879,476 880,031 864,757 875,174 876,700 874,633 873,750 872,436 872,286 871,105 872,436 874,414
Wyoming ........................... 98,226 89,940 87,462 84,733 84,409 85,193 86,422 87,161 88,155 89,009 90,099 91,533 92,732
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — 46,938 45,828 45,828 50,938 — — 40,927 41,351 41,962 — — —
DoD, overseas................... — 73,581 71,053 68,327 62,543 60,891 57,247 56,768 — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — 34,174 30,603 29,151 28,329 26,631 27,548 28,013 — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... 12,463 15,702 15,893 16,126 16,438 16,400 — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ 26,391 32,473 31,572 30,605 30,986 — — — — 31,618 31,243 31,186 33,414
Northern Marianas....... 6,449 10,004 11,244 11,601 11,718 11,695 11,299 10,913 10,961 11,105 11,011 10,646 10,638
Puerto Rico................... 644,734 612,725 584,916 575,648 563,490 544,138 526,565 503,635 493,393 473,735 452,740 434,609 423,934
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ 21,750 19,459 17,716 16,429 16,750 16,284 15,903 15,768 15,493 15,495 15,711 15,192 14,953

See notes at end of table.

40 Reference Tables
Table 3. Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025—Continued
Percent change Projected total enrollment Percent change
Region, state, in total enrollment, in total enrollment,
and jurisdiction 2008 to 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2020 Fall 2025 2013 to 2025
1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
United States............ 1.6 50,131,600 50,268,100 50,385,200 50,477,400 50,774,000 51,419,700 2.7
Region
Northeast .......................... -1.1 7,918,000 7,888,600 7,866,000 7,841,700 7,761,000 7,578,400 -4.8
Midwest............................. -1.6 10,549,100 10,534,500 10,517,100 10,493,400 10,409,900 10,283,600 -2.7
South................................. 4.4 19,432,000 19,576,400 19,699,500 19,804,500 20,134,800 20,810,400 7.8
West .................................. 1.9 12,232,500 12,268,600 12,302,700 12,337,800 12,468,300 12,747,200 4.4
State
Alabama............................ 0.1 743,900 741,100 739,500 737,500 734,100 734,700 -1.5
Alaska................................ 0.2 130,900 131,400 132,100 132,700 135,700 140,100 7.0
Arizona.............................. 1.3 1,108,100 1,116,000 1,123,900 1,134,900 1,174,100 1,250,700 13.4
Arkansas........................... 2.3 490,500 490,800 491,300 491,700 493,800 500,400 2.1
California........................... -0.2 6,288,100 6,271,300 6,256,300 6,244,400 6,219,700 6,221,200 -1.4
Colorado............................ 7.2 885,900 895,100 902,500 908,800 925,500 957,900 9.2
Connecticut....................... -3.7 538,200 531,700 525,100 518,000 498,500 468,600 -14.2
Delaware........................... 5.0 132,400 133,300 134,500 135,500 138,100 139,900 6.2
District of Columbia........... 13.8 80,100 82,500 85,200 87,900 96,400 108,900 39.4
Florida ............................... 3.4 2,746,700 2,770,600 2,792,800 2,811,400 2,882,100 3,034,200 11.5
Georgia ............................. 4.1 1,737,800 1,750,500 1,760,400 1,768,500 1,797,200 1,873,600 8.7
Hawaii................................ 4.1 187,700 188,900 190,400 191,800 194,900 195,800 4.8
Idaho ................................. 7.8 302,200 308,400 313,400 317,200 329,500 346,700 17.0
Illinois................................. -2.5 2,061,600 2,055,400 2,051,100 2,044,600 2,015,500 1,961,200 -5.1
Indiana............................... 0.1 1,042,400 1,038,600 1,034,500 1,029,500 1,014,200 1,008,700 -3.7
Iowa................................... 3.2 504,500 506,800 508,700 509,800 513,100 514,200 2.2
Kansas .............................. 5.4 498,600 502,100 504,800 507,300 512,800 517,600 4.3
Kentucky............................ 1.1 673,300 671,000 669,200 667,600 663,300 661,800 -2.3
Louisiana........................... 3.9 712,400 714,500 715,700 716,500 718,500 724,900 1.9
Maine................................. -4.6 182,000 180,100 178,000 176,100 170,800 161,900 -12.0
Maryland ........................... 2.6 871,800 879,200 886,800 894,400 912,200 922,200 6.5
Massachusetts.................. -0.3 951,500 947,900 943,700 939,700 927,500 910,700 -4.7
Michigan............................ -6.7 1,532,800 1,518,300 1,503,100 1,488,900 1,449,800 1,407,500 -9.1
Minnesota.......................... 1.8 858,900 864,900 871,700 877,300 890,100 893,200 5.0
Mississippi......................... 0.1 490,900 489,900 488,400 486,200 479,800 471,200 -4.3
Missouri............................. # 916,200 915,300 913,800 912,500 911,000 911,200 -0.8
Montana............................ 1.6 144,800 145,700 146,600 147,400 150,900 157,300 9.1
Nebraska........................... 5.2 308,900 310,800 312,400 313,600 315,400 318,100 3.4
Nevada.............................. 4.3 455,700 461,500 466,800 471,700 487,500 516,200 14.2
New Hampshire................ -5.9 183,300 180,500 177,700 175,200 168,200 159,100 -14.6
New Jersey ....................... -0.8 1,365,700 1,362,000 1,358,700 1,355,200 1,341,400 1,309,600 -4.4
New Mexico....................... 2.7 339,400 339,300 339,900 339,700 339,800 342,500 1.0
New York ........................... -0.3 2,726,300 2,725,200 2,727,900 2,730,200 2,730,500 2,693,100 -1.5
North Carolina................... 2.8 1,536,900 1,544,000 1,549,300 1,553,700 1,566,500 1,610,100 5.2
North Dakota..................... 9.7 106,900 110,000 112,900 115,900 125,000 135,000 29.9
Ohio................................... -5.1 1,714,400 1,707,600 1,698,700 1,689,500 1,660,900 1,621,000 -6.0
Oklahoma.......................... 5.7 686,400 693,100 698,800 703,500 717,200 736,300 8.0
Oregon .............................. 3.1 594,600 597,800 600,300 602,800 612,500 627,500 5.8
Pennsylvania..................... -1.1 1,742,300 1,734,200 1,729,200 1,722,700 1,703,400 1,662,000 -5.3
Rhode Island..................... -2.3 141,000 140,200 139,500 139,600 137,600 133,900 -5.7
South Carolina.................. 3.8 754,600 763,200 769,900 775,100 791,200 815,900 9.4
South Dakota .................... 3.5 131,600 132,900 134,400 135,800 139,800 142,600 9.0
Tennessee......................... 2.2 995,800 999,100 1,002,700 1,005,300 1,018,600 1,051,300 5.8
Texas ................................. 8.4 5,221,000 5,291,000 5,348,300 5,399,800 5,545,700 5,825,000 13.0
Utah................................... 11.7 635,600 646,100 655,300 663,200 688,800 739,300 18.2
Vermont............................. -5.3 87,800 86,900 86,100 85,100 83,100 79,600 -10.3
Virginia .............................. 3.1 1,279,200 1,286,000 1,292,000 1,297,000 1,310,700 1,331,100 4.5
Washington....................... 2.1 1,065,400 1,072,200 1,079,200 1,086,200 1,109,600 1,149,300 8.5
West Virginia..................... -0.6 278,400 276,600 274,800 273,100 269,700 268,800 -4.3
Wisconsin.......................... 0.1 872,200 871,900 870,900 868,600 862,500 853,400 -2.4
Wyoming ........................... 6.4 93,900 95,000 96,000 96,900 99,800 102,700 10.8
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, overseas................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — — — — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... — — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ — — — — — — — —
Northern Marianas....... -2.5 — — — — — — —
Puerto Rico................... -15.8 — — — — — — —
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ -5.2 — — — — — — —

—Not available. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
#Rounds to zero. mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Educa-
NOTE: DoD = Department of Defense. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. tion,” 1990–91 through 2013–14; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 41

Table 4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025
Actual enrollment
Region, state,
and jurisdiction Fall 1990 Fall 2000 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
United States............ 29,875,914 33,686,421 34,200,741 34,177,565 34,203,962 34,234,751 34,204,081 34,285,564 34,409,260 34,624,530 34,772,751 35,017,893 35,250,792
Region
Northeast .......................... 5,188,795 5,839,970 5,751,561 5,689,094 5,622,955 5,573,729 5,504,400 5,476,224 5,494,080 5,540,276 5,479,174 5,493,308 5,502,015
Midwest............................. 7,129,501 7,523,246 7,501,579 7,438,674 7,425,308 7,404,578 7,359,028 7,373,391 7,361,959 7,349,334 7,358,792 7,368,484 7,394,141
South................................. 10,858,800 12,314,176 12,675,179 12,780,160 12,881,836 12,989,696 13,085,045 13,166,980 13,300,643 13,434,553 13,578,211 13,711,284 13,830,129
West .................................. 6,698,818 8,009,029 8,272,422 8,269,637 8,273,863 8,266,748 8,255,608 8,268,969 8,252,578 8,300,367 8,356,574 8,444,817 8,524,507
State
Alabama............................ 527,097 538,634 525,313 521,757 529,347 528,664 525,978 528,078 529,394 533,612 527,006 527,434 527,499
Alaska................................ 85,297 94,442 93,695 91,981 91,225 90,167 88,980 89,263 90,824 91,990 92,057 93,069 92,714
Arizona.............................. 479,046 640,564 704,322 722,203 739,535 759,656 771,056 771,749 760,420 751,992 759,494 767,734 775,280
Arkansas........................... 313,505 318,023 321,508 328,187 335,746 336,552 339,920 341,603 344,209 345,808 346,022 347,631 349,709
California........................... 3,613,734 4,407,035 4,539,777 4,507,355 4,465,615 4,410,105 4,328,968 4,306,258 4,264,022 4,293,968 4,308,447 4,331,807 4,357,989
Colorado............................ 419,910 516,566 536,325 540,695 549,875 559,041 565,726 580,304 591,378 601,077 610,854 617,510 627,619
Connecticut....................... 347,396 406,445 407,794 404,169 399,705 398,063 394,034 392,218 389,964 387,475 383,377 380,709 377,162
Delaware........................... 72,606 80,801 82,898 83,599 84,639 84,996 85,019 86,811 87,710 90,279 90,624 91,004 93,204
District of Columbia........... 61,282 53,692 59,489 57,118 55,646 52,391 55,836 50,779 51,656 53,548 56,195 58,273 60,379
Florida ............................... 1,369,934 1,759,902 1,832,376 1,857,798 1,873,395 1,866,562 1,855,859 1,849,295 1,850,901 1,858,498 1,876,102 1,892,560 1,913,710
Georgia ............................. 849,082 1,059,983 1,103,181 1,118,379 1,145,446 1,166,508 1,178,577 1,185,684 1,194,751 1,202,479 1,211,250 1,222,289 1,233,877
Hawaii................................ 122,840 132,293 130,054 128,788 127,472 126,008 125,556 125,910 127,477 127,525 131,005 133,590 135,925
Idaho ................................. 160,091 170,421 175,424 178,221 182,829 187,005 191,171 193,554 194,728 194,144 198,064 202,203 209,333
Illinois................................. 1,309,516 1,473,933 1,492,725 1,483,644 1,480,320 1,477,679 1,472,909 1,479,195 1,463,713 1,454,793 1,453,156 1,448,201 1,445,459
Indiana............................... 675,804 703,261 716,819 720,006 724,467 730,108 729,550 730,021 730,599 729,414 724,605 725,040 731,035
Iowa................................... 344,804 333,750 326,831 324,169 326,160 326,218 329,504 335,566 341,333 348,112 350,152 355,041 357,953
Kansas .............................. 319,648 323,157 322,491 321,176 320,513 326,201 326,771 331,079 332,997 342,927 347,129 349,695 355,929
Kentucky............................ 459,200 471,429 478,254 485,794 487,429 487,165 469,373 472,204 484,466 480,334 488,456 491,065 485,001
Louisiana........................... 586,202 546,579 536,390 533,751 482,082 492,116 499,549 504,213 509,883 512,266 518,802 524,792 523,310
Maine................................. 155,203 145,701 139,420 136,275 133,491 132,338 130,742 129,324 128,646 128,929 130,046 127,924 127,071
Maryland ........................... 526,744 609,043 605,862 597,417 588,571 579,065 576,479 576,473 581,785 588,156 594,216 602,802 612,580
Massachusetts.................. 604,234 702,575 692,130 682,175 675,398 670,628 666,926 666,538 666,551 666,402 666,314 667,267 668,261
Michigan............................ 1,144,878 1,222,482 1,229,121 1,211,698 1,191,397 1,170,558 1,136,823 1,118,569 1,114,611 1,075,584 1,070,873 1,061,930 1,060,065
Minnesota.......................... 545,556 577,766 564,049 558,447 557,757 558,445 558,180 560,184 564,661 569,963 575,544 583,363 589,564
Mississippi......................... 371,641 363,873 360,881 361,057 358,030 356,382 353,512 351,807 351,652 350,885 352,999 356,364 356,432
Missouri............................. 588,070 644,766 632,227 628,667 635,142 634,275 631,746 635,411 638,082 642,991 645,376 647,530 649,061
Montana............................ 111,169 105,226 100,160 98,673 97,770 97,021 96,354 96,869 97,868 98,491 99,725 100,819 101,991
Nebraska........................... 198,080 195,486 195,417 194,816 195,055 195,769 200,095 202,912 206,860 210,292 213,504 215,432 219,122
Nevada.............................. 149,881 250,720 280,734 288,753 295,989 302,953 307,573 308,328 305,512 307,297 309,360 313,730 319,240
New Hampshire................ 126,301 147,121 142,031 140,241 138,584 136,188 134,359 132,995 132,768 131,576 129,632 128,169 126,933
New Jersey ....................... 783,422 967,533 978,440 975,856 970,592 963,418 954,418 956,765 968,332 981,255 947,576 956,070 956,379
New Mexico....................... 208,087 224,879 226,032 227,900 229,552 230,091 229,718 231,415 235,343 239,345 239,481 240,978 241,528
New York ........................... 1,827,418 2,028,906 1,978,181 1,942,575 1,909,028 1,887,284 1,856,315 1,843,080 1,847,003 1,869,150 1,857,574 1,868,561 1,884,845
North Carolina................... 783,132 945,470 974,019 985,740 1,003,118 1,027,067 1,072,324 1,058,926 1,053,801 1,058,409 1,074,063 1,080,090 1,089,594
North Dakota..................... 84,943 72,421 67,870 67,122 65,638 64,395 63,492 63,955 64,576 66,035 67,888 70,995 73,527
Ohio................................... 1,257,580 1,293,646 1,278,202 1,267,088 1,261,331 1,253,193 1,241,322 1,239,494 1,225,346 1,222,808 1,217,226 1,211,299 1,208,500
Oklahoma.......................... 424,899 445,402 450,310 452,942 456,954 459,944 462,629 467,960 476,962 483,464 490,196 496,144 501,504
Oregon .............................. 340,243 379,264 378,052 376,933 379,680 380,576 383,598 395,421 404,451 392,601 391,310 409,325 414,405
Pennsylvania..................... 1,172,164 1,257,824 1,235,624 1,234,828 1,227,625 1,220,074 1,205,351 1,194,327 1,200,446 1,209,766 1,204,850 1,204,732 1,201,169
Rhode Island..................... 101,797 113,545 111,209 107,040 103,870 101,996 99,159 97,983 98,184 97,734 97,659 97,809 98,738
South Carolina.................. 452,033 493,226 500,743 504,264 498,030 501,273 504,566 507,602 512,124 515,581 519,389 527,350 533,822
South Dakota .................... 95,165 87,838 86,015 83,891 83,530 83,137 83,424 87,477 85,745 87,936 90,529 93,204 94,251
Tennessee......................... 598,111 668,123 675,277 670,880 676,576 691,971 681,751 684,549 686,668 701,707 712,749 711,525 709,668
Texas ................................. 2,510,955 2,943,047 3,132,584 3,184,235 3,268,339 3,319,782 3,374,684 3,446,511 3,520,348 3,586,609 3,636,852 3,690,146 3,742,266
Utah................................... 324,982 333,104 348,840 355,445 357,644 371,272 410,258 404,469 413,343 424,979 434,536 444,202 451,332
Vermont............................. 70,860 70,320 66,732 65,935 64,662 63,740 63,096 62,994 62,186 67,989 62,146 62,067 61,457
Virginia .............................. 728,280 815,748 837,258 839,687 841,299 841,685 850,444 855,008 864,020 871,446 881,225 889,444 896,573
Washington....................... 612,597 694,367 699,248 695,405 699,482 694,858 697,407 704,794 705,387 714,172 718,184 724,560 730,868
West Virginia..................... 224,097 201,201 198,836 197,555 197,189 197,573 198,545 199,477 200,313 201,472 202,065 202,371 201,001
Wisconsin.......................... 565,457 594,740 589,812 577,950 583,998 584,600 585,212 589,528 593,436 598,479 602,810 606,754 609,675
Wyoming ........................... 70,941 60,148 59,759 57,285 57,195 57,995 59,243 60,635 61,825 62,786 64,057 65,290 66,283
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — 35,746 33,671 33,671 36,133 — — 30,612 31,381 31,985 — — —
DoD, overseas................... — 59,299 56,226 53,720 48,691 47,589 44,418 43,931 — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — 30,697 27,500 26,195 25,558 24,052 24,807 25,255 — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... 9,390 11,895 11,772 11,873 11,766 11,763 — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ 19,276 23,698 22,551 21,686 21,946 — — — — 21,561 21,223 21,166 23,301
Northern Marianas....... 4,918 7,809 8,192 8,416 8,427 8,504 8,140 7,816 7,743 7,688 7,703 7,396 7,340
Puerto Rico................... 480,356 445,524 418,649 408,671 399,447 382,647 372,514 355,115 347,638 334,613 318,924 305,048 294,976
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ 16,249 13,910 12,738 11,650 11,728 11,237 10,770 10,567 10,409 10,518 10,576 10,302 10,283

See notes at end of table.

42 Reference Tables
Table 4. Public school enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025—Continued
Percent change Projected enrollment Percent change
Region, state, in enrollment, in enrollment,
and jurisdiction 2008 to 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2020 Fall 2025 2013 to 2025
1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
United States............ 2.8 35,249,000 35,297,700 35,401,900 35,451,100 35,559,400 36,051,800 2.3
Region
Northeast .......................... 0.5 5,471,100 5,451,600 5,444,000 5,424,500 5,351,800 5,203,300 -5.4
Midwest............................. 0.3 7,358,200 7,331,200 7,318,800 7,293,900 7,199,300 7,132,900 -3.5
South................................. 5.0 13,883,100 13,953,300 14,047,000 14,129,500 14,378,800 14,808,200 7.1
West .................................. 3.1 8,536,600 8,561,600 8,592,100 8,603,200 8,629,500 8,907,400 4.5
State
Alabama............................ -0.1 524,300 522,800 523,200 523,800 525,300 522,800 -0.9
Alaska................................ 3.9 93,000 93,600 94,600 95,700 97,700 100,000 7.9
Arizona.............................. 0.5 783,800 793,200 802,500 809,800 830,900 891,100 14.9
Arkansas........................... 2.4 349,500 349,600 350,400 351,300 355,100 357,100 2.1
California........................... 1.2 4,337,200 4,325,200 4,316,200 4,295,600 4,232,300 4,319,400 -0.9
Colorado............................ 8.2 631,600 635,200 638,100 639,300 645,400 673,200 7.3
Connecticut....................... -3.8 371,400 366,100 361,700 355,900 341,300 323,100 -14.3
Delaware........................... 7.4 93,700 94,500 95,200 95,500 95,800 97,600 4.7
District of Columbia........... 18.9 62,100 64,500 67,400 70,200 77,600 85,100 40.9
Florida ............................... 3.5 1,928,900 1,945,000 1,965,000 1,984,700 2,040,100 2,134,000 11.5
Georgia ............................. 4.1 1,237,600 1,241,600 1,248,100 1,255,300 1,278,900 1,336,500 8.3
Hawaii................................ 8.0 136,700 138,100 139,100 139,700 140,700 139,900 2.9
Idaho ................................. 8.2 213,000 216,400 219,900 223,000 229,000 237,300 13.4
Illinois................................. -2.3 1,435,400 1,425,700 1,418,400 1,406,200 1,365,800 1,351,200 -6.5
Indiana............................... 0.1 725,800 719,200 716,000 714,400 708,500 705,900 -3.4
Iowa................................... 6.7 358,500 360,300 361,800 362,300 362,200 359,800 0.5
Kansas .............................. 7.5 356,600 358,000 360,000 361,000 362,800 364,400 2.4
Kentucky............................ 2.7 481,400 478,700 478,300 476,700 474,700 476,400 -1.8
Louisiana........................... 3.8 521,800 522,300 523,000 524,100 528,700 530,300 1.3
Maine................................. -1.7 125,600 124,300 123,300 122,000 117,500 111,500 -12.3
Maryland ........................... 6.3 618,700 626,400 631,900 635,900 642,200 638,200 4.2
Massachusetts.................. 0.3 663,400 659,500 656,800 653,000 643,800 635,000 -5.0
Michigan............................ -5.2 1,044,900 1,032,700 1,024,400 1,015,200 990,100 970,900 -8.4
Minnesota.......................... 5.2 594,800 598,600 603,000 605,100 604,000 601,900 2.1
Mississippi......................... 1.3 354,200 353,400 352,800 352,900 350,100 338,600 -5.0
Missouri............................. 2.1 646,900 646,300 647,000 647,000 645,600 644,000 -0.8
Montana............................ 5.3 103,000 103,800 104,600 105,300 107,300 111,900 9.7
Nebraska........................... 8.0 218,900 219,200 219,100 218,600 216,600 222,100 1.4
Nevada.............................. 3.5 322,500 326,500 330,500 334,400 345,800 362,400 13.5
New Hampshire................ -4.6 124,900 123,000 121,100 119,300 114,200 109,500 -13.8
New Jersey ....................... # 951,900 949,100 947,600 944,100 930,400 903,800 -5.5
New Mexico....................... 4.4 241,100 240,500 240,400 240,400 239,800 242,700 0.5
New York ........................... 2.3 1,879,000 1,880,600 1,886,900 1,888,400 1,884,200 1,838,400 -2.5
North Carolina................... 2.9 1,090,300 1,091,300 1,094,800 1,097,800 1,116,700 1,142,400 4.8
North Dakota..................... 15.0 76,400 79,000 81,600 83,900 88,900 92,300 25.5
Ohio................................... -2.5 1,199,000 1,191,300 1,185,900 1,179,500 1,159,300 1,131,200 -6.4
Oklahoma.......................... 7.2 502,800 506,600 511,000 513,900 522,700 533,000 6.3
Oregon .............................. 4.8 416,100 418,900 422,100 424,600 431,200 437,700 5.6
Pennsylvania..................... 0.6 1,195,500 1,190,800 1,189,500 1,185,700 1,168,400 1,134,600 -5.5
Rhode Island..................... 0.8 98,500 97,800 97,200 96,500 94,500 92,100 -6.7
South Carolina.................. 5.2 537,900 542,400 548,000 553,100 565,000 573,500 7.4
South Dakota .................... 7.7 94,800 96,300 97,600 98,700 100,300 100,600 6.7
Tennessee......................... 3.7 710,300 712,200 715,900 719,400 729,900 754,900 6.4
Texas ................................. 8.6 3,773,100 3,804,000 3,840,500 3,870,200 3,965,600 4,165,600 11.3
Utah................................... 11.6 456,100 461,400 466,300 470,200 484,900 526,200 16.6
Vermont............................. -2.4 60,900 60,400 59,900 59,400 57,600 55,200 -10.1
Virginia .............................. 4.9 897,900 900,700 905,000 908,900 915,800 927,300 3.4
Washington....................... 3.7 735,200 740,700 748,700 755,600 774,200 793,600 8.6
West Virginia..................... 0.8 198,500 197,300 196,500 195,900 194,800 195,100 -3.0
Wisconsin.......................... 3.4 606,100 604,700 604,000 601,900 595,200 588,500 -3.5
Wyoming ........................... 9.3 67,300 68,200 69,100 69,500 70,600 72,100 8.7
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, overseas................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — — — — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... — — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ — — — — — — — —
Northern Marianas....... -6.1 — — — — — — —
Puerto Rico................... -16.9 — — — — — — —
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ -2.7 — — — — — — —

—Not available. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
#Rounds to zero. mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Educa-
NOTE: DoD = Department of Defense. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. tion,” 1990–91 through 2013–14; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 43

Table 5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025
Actual enrollment
Region, state,
and jurisdiction Fall 1990 Fall 2000 Fall 2003 Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2006 Fall 2007 Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
United States............ 11,340,769 13,517,118 14,339,474 14,617,900 14,909,336 15,081,091 15,086,478 14,980,008 14,951,722 14,859,651 14,748,918 14,753,225 14,793,730
Region
Northeast .......................... 2,092,968 2,382,157 2,540,754 2,582,165 2,617,205 2,684,160 2,617,622 2,576,761 2,597,949 2,531,059 2,474,807 2,465,820 2,459,228
Midwest............................. 2,814,260 3,206,741 3,307,398 3,336,735 3,393,507 3,414,670 3,411,182 3,369,582 3,310,212 3,260,270 3,215,000 3,190,746 3,178,779
South................................. 3,948,216 4,693,085 4,997,566 5,111,827 5,221,330 5,303,937 5,337,728 5,323,790 5,351,246 5,370,447 5,377,721 5,417,092 5,468,585
West .................................. 2,485,325 3,235,135 3,493,756 3,587,173 3,677,294 3,678,324 3,719,946 3,709,875 3,692,315 3,697,875 3,681,390 3,679,567 3,687,138
State
Alabama............................ 194,709 201,358 205,907 208,383 212,414 214,968 216,941 217,590 219,495 221,940 217,615 217,203 218,705
Alaska................................ 28,606 38,914 40,238 40,989 42,063 42,441 42,049 41,399 40,837 40,114 39,110 38,420 38,230
Arizona.............................. 160,807 237,132 307,746 321,095 354,919 308,593 316,391 316,068 317,411 319,759 320,825 321,650 327,165
Arkansas........................... 122,781 131,936 133,015 134,928 138,460 139,857 139,096 137,362 136,350 136,306 137,092 138,526 140,270
California........................... 1,336,740 1,733,779 1,874,090 1,934,202 1,971,587 1,996,645 2,014,503 2,016,270 1,999,416 1,995,610 1,979,387 1,967,644 1,954,634
Colorado............................ 154,303 207,942 221,368 225,281 229,951 234,985 236,141 238,139 240,990 242,239 243,411 246,051 249,380
Connecticut....................... 121,727 155,734 169,409 173,221 175,354 177,037 176,592 174,980 174,004 173,071 171,060 170,245 169,038
Delaware........................... 27,052 33,875 34,770 35,492 36,298 37,258 37,555 38,619 39,091 39,124 38,322 38,022 38,483
District of Columbia........... 19,412 15,233 18,568 19,596 21,230 20,459 22,586 17,902 17,777 17,736 17,716 17,867 17,774
Florida ............................... 491,658 674,919 755,252 781,538 801,629 804,951 810,952 781,725 783,621 784,849 792,054 799,602 807,034
Georgia ............................. 302,605 384,954 419,430 435,058 453,015 462,649 471,012 470,108 472,934 474,588 473,766 481,043 490,032
Hawaii................................ 48,868 52,067 53,555 54,397 55,346 54,720 54,341 53,568 52,719 52,076 51,701 51,170 50,900
Idaho ................................. 60,749 74,696 76,696 77,863 79,153 80,375 80,948 81,497 81,571 81,715 81,809 82,631 87,143
Illinois................................. 511,891 574,859 608,236 613,859 631,386 640,597 639,896 640,512 640,462 636,861 629,941 624,679 621,531
Indiana............................... 278,721 286,006 294,311 301,342 310,607 315,832 317,214 316,126 316,062 317,818 316,160 316,329 316,350
Iowa................................... 138,848 161,330 154,395 154,150 157,322 156,904 155,611 151,993 150,509 147,663 145,718 144,784 145,011
Kansas .............................. 117,386 147,453 147,999 147,960 147,012 143,305 141,524 139,981 141,492 140,774 138,979 139,348 140,511
Kentucky............................ 177,201 194,421 185,115 189,002 192,449 195,987 196,852 197,826 195,623 192,794 193,531 194,102 192,388
Louisiana........................... 198,555 196,510 191,319 190,530 172,444 183,735 181,489 180,660 181,032 184,292 184,588 186,111 188,181
Maine................................. 59,946 61,336 62,664 62,545 62,007 61,648 65,503 63,611 60,579 60,148 58,923 57,815 56,924
Maryland ........................... 188,432 243,877 263,251 268,144 271,449 272,575 269,221 267,388 266,627 264,055 259,870 256,836 253,589
Massachusetts.................. 230,080 272,575 288,329 293,399 296,511 298,033 296,032 292,372 290,502 289,161 287,055 287,506 287,478
Michigan............................ 439,553 498,144 528,483 539,592 550,885 552,098 555,916 541,352 534,471 511,483 502,664 493,440 488,776
Minnesota.......................... 210,818 276,574 278,805 280,056 281,486 282,120 279,398 275,864 272,392 268,074 264,194 262,041 261,409
Mississippi......................... 130,776 133,998 132,659 134,319 136,924 138,644 140,610 140,155 140,829 139,641 137,620 137,286 136,154
Missouri............................. 228,488 267,978 273,714 276,782 282,563 286,078 285,442 282,460 279,900 275,719 271,208 270,370 269,227
Montana............................ 41,805 49,649 48,196 48,032 47,646 47,397 46,469 45,030 43,939 43,202 42,624 42,089 42,138
Nebraska........................... 76,001 90,713 90,125 90,945 91,591 91,811 91,149 89,678 88,508 88,208 87,792 88,073 88,555
Nevada.............................. 51,435 89,986 104,667 111,330 116,406 121,813 121,789 125,043 123,435 129,852 130,274 131,977 132,591
New Hampshire................ 46,484 61,340 65,386 66,611 67,183 67,384 66,413 64,939 64,372 63,135 62,268 60,805 59,377
New Jersey ....................... 306,224 345,872 402,313 417,491 425,010 425,432 427,930 424,655 427,697 421,293 408,855 416,133 413,916
New Mexico....................... 93,794 95,427 97,034 98,202 97,206 98,129 99,322 98,830 99,076 98,777 97,744 97,242 97,716
New York ........................... 770,919 853,282 886,594 893,762 906,553 922,365 909,120 897,512 919,049 865,805 847,144 842,142 847,925
North Carolina................... 303,739 348,168 386,190 400,014 413,318 417,414 417,168 429,719 429,596 432,196 433,801 438,375 441,263
North Dakota..................... 32,882 36,780 34,363 33,391 32,645 32,275 31,567 30,773 30,497 30,288 29,758 30,116 30,420
Ohio................................... 513,509 541,403 567,226 572,944 578,352 583,529 585,862 577,669 538,951 531,383 522,804 518,617 515,611
Oklahoma.......................... 154,188 177,708 175,850 176,534 177,785 179,447 179,436 177,148 177,840 176,447 175,924 177,339 180,344
Oregon .............................. 132,151 166,967 173,221 175,572 172,514 181,998 181,988 179,972 178,388 178,119 176,898 178,239 178,595
Pennsylvania..................... 495,670 556,487 585,522 593,261 603,059 650,986 596,620 580,702 585,547 583,518 566,545 558,945 554,067
Rhode Island..................... 37,016 43,802 48,166 49,458 49,552 49,616 48,470 47,359 46,934 46,059 45,195 44,672 43,270
South Carolina.................. 170,079 184,185 198,455 199,472 203,514 206,748 207,751 210,511 211,019 210,257 207,797 208,648 211,835
South Dakota .................... 33,999 40,765 39,522 38,907 38,482 38,021 38,182 38,952 37,968 38,192 37,487 37,267 36,639
Tennessee......................... 226,484 241,038 261,405 270,211 277,352 286,397 282,508 287,401 285,881 285,715 286,944 281,971 283,888
Texas ................................. 871,932 1,116,572 1,199,167 1,220,980 1,257,055 1,279,727 1,300,148 1,305,637 1,329,862 1,349,106 1,363,618 1,387,513 1,411,436
Utah................................... 121,670 148,381 147,141 148,162 150,786 152,114 165,986 155,309 158,243 160,573 164,296 169,077 174,129
Vermont............................. 24,902 31,729 32,371 32,417 31,976 31,659 30,942 30,631 29,265 28,869 27,762 27,557 27,233
Virginia .............................. 270,321 329,167 354,834 365,052 372,317 378,755 380,413 380,787 381,320 379,994 376,658 375,975 377,252
Washington....................... 227,112 310,403 322,101 324,600 332,503 331,916 332,840 332,224 329,960 329,616 327,269 327,134 328,068
West Virginia..................... 98,292 85,166 82,379 82,574 83,677 84,366 83,990 83,252 82,349 81,407 80,805 80,673 79,957
Wisconsin.......................... 232,164 284,736 290,219 286,807 291,176 292,100 289,421 284,222 279,000 273,807 268,295 265,682 264,739
Wyoming ........................... 27,285 29,792 27,703 27,448 27,214 27,198 27,179 26,526 26,330 26,223 26,042 26,243 26,449
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — 11,192 12,157 12,157 14,805 — — 10,315 9,970 9,977 — — —
DoD, overseas................... — 14,282 14,827 14,607 13,852 13,302 12,829 12,837 — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — 3,477 3,103 2,956 2,771 2,579 2,741 2,758 — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... 3,073 3,807 4,121 4,253 4,672 4,637 — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ 7,115 8,775 9,021 8,919 9,040 — — — — 10,057 10,020 10,020 10,113
Northern Marianas....... 1,531 2,195 3,052 3,185 3,291 3,191 3,159 3,097 3,218 3,417 3,308 3,250 3,298
Puerto Rico................... 164,378 167,201 166,267 166,977 164,043 161,491 154,051 148,520 145,755 139,122 133,816 129,561 128,958
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ 5,501 5,549 4,978 4,779 5,022 5,047 5,133 5,201 5,084 4,977 5,135 4,890 4,670

See notes at end of table.

44 Reference Tables
Table 5. Public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, fall 1990 through fall 2025—Continued
Percent change Projected enrollment Percent change
Region, state, in enrollment, in enrollment,
and jurisdiction 2008 to 2013 Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2020 Fall 2025 2013 to 2025
1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
United States............ -1.2 14,882,600 14,970,400 14,983,400 15,026,300 15,214,600 15,367,900 3.9
Region
Northeast .......................... -4.6 2,446,900 2,437,000 2,422,000 2,417,300 2,409,200 2,375,100 -3.4
Midwest............................. -5.7 3,190,900 3,203,300 3,198,300 3,199,500 3,210,600 3,150,700 -0.9
South................................. 2.7 5,548,900 5,623,100 5,652,500 5,674,900 5,756,000 6,002,200 9.8
West .................................. -0.6 3,695,900 3,707,000 3,710,600 3,734,600 3,838,800 3,839,800 4.1
State
Alabama............................ 0.5 219,600 218,300 216,300 213,700 208,800 211,900 -3.1
Alaska................................ -7.7 37,900 37,800 37,500 37,000 38,000 40,100 4.8
Arizona.............................. 3.5 324,300 322,800 321,400 325,100 343,200 359,600 9.9
Arkansas........................... 2.1 141,000 141,200 141,000 140,500 138,600 143,300 2.2
California........................... -3.1 1,951,000 1,946,100 1,940,100 1,948,800 1,987,500 1,901,800 -2.7
Colorado............................ 4.7 254,400 259,900 264,400 269,500 280,100 284,700 14.1
Connecticut....................... -3.4 166,800 165,600 163,400 162,100 157,200 145,500 -13.9
Delaware........................... -0.4 38,600 38,900 39,300 40,000 42,300 42,300 10.0
District of Columbia........... -0.7 18,000 18,000 17,800 17,700 18,800 23,900 34.2
Florida ............................... 3.2 817,800 825,600 827,800 826,700 842,000 900,300 11.6
Georgia ............................. 4.2 500,100 508,900 512,300 513,200 518,300 537,100 9.6
Hawaii................................ -5.0 51,100 50,700 51,200 52,100 54,200 55,900 9.8
Idaho ................................. 6.9 89,200 92,000 93,500 94,200 100,500 109,400 25.5
Illinois................................. -3.0 626,100 629,700 632,700 638,400 649,700 610,000 -1.9
Indiana............................... 0.1 316,600 319,400 318,500 315,100 305,700 302,800 -4.3
Iowa................................... -4.6 146,000 146,500 146,900 147,600 150,900 154,400 6.5
Kansas .............................. 0.4 142,100 144,100 144,800 146,300 149,900 153,200 9.0
Kentucky............................ -2.7 191,900 192,300 190,800 190,900 188,600 185,300 -3.7
Louisiana........................... 4.2 190,600 192,300 192,600 192,500 189,800 194,700 3.5
Maine................................. -10.5 56,400 55,700 54,700 54,000 53,300 50,400 -11.5
Maryland ........................... -5.2 253,200 252,800 254,900 258,400 270,000 284,100 12.0
Massachusetts.................. -1.7 288,100 288,400 286,900 286,700 283,800 275,700 -4.1
Michigan............................ -9.7 487,800 485,600 478,800 473,700 459,700 436,600 -10.7
Minnesota.......................... -5.2 264,100 266,300 268,700 272,100 286,000 291,200 11.4
Mississippi......................... -2.9 136,700 136,400 135,500 133,300 129,700 132,600 -2.6
Missouri............................. -4.7 269,400 269,000 266,800 265,400 265,300 267,200 -0.8
Montana............................ -6.4 41,900 41,900 42,000 42,100 43,600 45,400 7.7
Nebraska........................... -1.3 90,100 91,600 93,300 95,000 98,800 95,900 8.3
Nevada.............................. 6.0 133,100 135,100 136,400 137,400 141,800 153,800 16.0
New Hampshire................ -8.6 58,500 57,500 56,600 55,900 54,000 49,600 -16.4
New Jersey ....................... -2.5 413,700 412,900 411,100 411,100 410,900 405,800 -2.0
New Mexico....................... -1.1 98,300 98,800 99,500 99,300 100,000 99,800 2.1
New York ........................... -5.5 847,300 844,600 841,000 841,700 846,200 854,700 0.8
North Carolina................... 2.7 446,600 452,700 454,400 455,800 449,900 467,600 6.0
North Dakota..................... -1.1 30,500 31,000 31,300 31,900 36,200 42,700 40.5
Ohio................................... -10.7 515,400 516,300 512,800 510,000 501,600 489,700 -5.0
Oklahoma.......................... 1.8 183,600 186,400 187,900 189,600 194,500 203,300 12.7
Oregon .............................. -0.8 178,500 178,900 178,200 178,300 181,400 189,800 6.3
Pennsylvania..................... -4.6 546,800 543,400 539,700 536,900 535,100 527,300 -4.8
Rhode Island..................... -8.6 42,500 42,400 42,400 43,100 43,100 41,800 -3.5
South Carolina.................. 0.6 216,700 220,800 222,000 222,000 226,200 242,300 14.4
South Dakota .................... -5.9 36,800 36,700 36,800 37,100 39,500 42,000 14.7
Tennessee......................... -1.2 285,500 286,900 286,800 285,800 288,700 296,400 4.4
Texas ................................. 8.1 1,447,900 1,487,000 1,507,800 1,529,600 1,580,100 1,659,500 17.6
Utah................................... 12.1 179,600 184,600 189,000 193,100 203,900 213,200 22.4
Vermont............................. -11.1 26,900 26,500 26,200 25,700 25,600 24,400 -10.5
Virginia .............................. -0.9 381,300 385,300 387,000 388,100 394,800 403,900 7.1
Washington....................... -1.3 330,200 331,500 330,500 330,600 335,400 355,700 8.4
West Virginia..................... -4.0 79,900 79,300 78,300 77,100 74,900 73,800 -7.7
Wisconsin.......................... -6.9 266,000 267,200 266,800 266,600 267,300 265,000 0.1
Wyoming ........................... -0.3 26,600 26,800 26,900 27,300 29,200 30,700 16.0
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education ................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, overseas................... — — — — — — — —
DoD, domestic................... — — — — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa.......... — — — — — — — —
Guam ............................ — — — — — — — —
Northern Marianas....... 6.5 — — — — — — —
Puerto Rico................... -13.2 — — — — — — —
U.S. Virgin Islands ........ -10.2 — — — — — — —

—Not available. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
NOTE: DoD = Department of Defense. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Educa-
Some data have been revised from previously published figures. tion,” 1990–91 through 2013–14; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 45

Table 6. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and region:
Selected years, fall 1995 through fall 2025
Enrollment (in thousands) Percentage distribution
American American
Asian/ Indian/ Asian/ Indian/
Pacific Alaska Two or Pacific Alaska Two or
Region and year Total White Black Hispanic Islander Native more races Total White Black Hispanic Islander Native more races
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
United States
1995................................ 44,840 29,044 7,551 6,072 1,668 505 — 100.0 64.8 16.8 13.5 3.7 1.1 †
2000................................ 47,204 28,878 8,100 7,726 1,950 550 — 100.0 61.2 17.2 16.4 4.1 1.2 †
2001................................ 47,672 28,735 8,177 8,169 2,028 564 — 100.0 60.3 17.2 17.1 4.3 1.2 †
2002................................ 48,183 28,618 8,299 8,594 2,088 583 — 100.0 59.4 17.2 17.8 4.3 1.2 †
2003................................ 48,540 28,442 8,349 9,011 2,145 593 — 100.0 58.6 17.2 18.6 4.4 1.2 †
2004................................ 48,795 28,318 8,386 9,317 2,183 591 — 100.0 58.0 17.2 19.1 4.5 1.2 †
2005................................ 49,113 28,005 8,445 9,787 2,279 598 — 100.0 57.0 17.2 19.9 4.6 1.2 †
2006................................ 49,316 27,801 8,422 10,166 2,332 595 — 100.0 56.4 17.1 20.6 4.7 1.2 †
2007................................ 49,291 27,454 8,392 10,454 2,396 594 — 100.0 55.7 17.0 21.2 4.9 1.2 †
2008................................ 49,266 27,057 8,358 10,563 2,451 589 247 1 100.0 54.9 17.0 21.4 5.0 1.2 0.5 1
2009................................ 49,361 26,702 8,245 10,991 2,484 601 338 1 100.0 54.1 16.7 22.3 5.0 1.2 0.7 1
2010................................ 49,484 25,933 7,917 11,439 2,466 566 1,164 100.0 52.4 16.0 23.1 5.0 1.1 2.4
2011................................ 49,522 25,602 7,827 11,759 2,513 547 1,272 100.0 51.7 15.8 23.7 5.1 1.1 2.6
2012................................ 49,771 25,386 7,803 12,104 2,552 534 1,393 100.0 51.0 15.7 24.3 5.1 1.1 2.8
2013................................ 50,045 25,160 7,805 12,452 2,593 523 1,511 100.0 50.3 15.6 24.9 5.2 1.0 3.0
20142 .............................. 50,132 25,007 7,828 12,740 2,637 516 1,404 100.0 49.9 15.6 25.4 5.3 1.0 2.8
20152 .............................. 50,268 24,789 7,817 13,030 2,678 508 1,445 100.0 49.3 15.6 25.9 5.3 1.0 2.9
20162 .............................. 50,385 24,566 7,806 13,306 2,723 499 1,484 100.0 48.8 15.5 26.4 5.4 1.0 2.9
20172 .............................. 50,477 24,340 7,796 13,563 2,769 490 1,519 100.0 48.2 15.4 26.9 5.5 1.0 3.0
20182 .............................. 50,528 24,128 7,776 13,791 2,799 483 1,552 100.0 47.8 15.4 27.3 5.5 1.0 3.1
20192 .............................. 50,618 23,993 7,754 13,964 2,846 472 1,590 100.0 47.4 15.3 27.6 5.6 0.9 3.1
20202 .............................. 50,774 23,882 7,756 14,142 2,892 463 1,638 100.0 47.0 15.3 27.9 5.7 0.9 3.2
20212 .............................. 50,928 23,777 7,774 14,300 2,934 457 1,685 100.0 46.7 15.3 28.1 5.8 0.9 3.3
20222 .............................. 51,084 23,686 7,799 14,437 2,979 451 1,731 100.0 46.4 15.3 28.3 5.8 0.9 3.4
20232 .............................. 51,225 23,614 7,819 14,541 3,029 447 1,777 100.0 46.1 15.3 28.4 5.9 0.9 3.5
20242 .............................. 51,338 23,544 7,832 14,615 3,083 443 1,821 100.0 45.9 15.3 28.5 6.0 0.9 3.5
20252 .............................. 51,420 23,465 7,836 14,677 3,139 439 1,863 100.0 45.6 15.2 28.5 6.1 0.9 3.6
Northeast
1995................................ 7,894 5,497 1,202 878 295 21 — 100.0 69.6 15.2 11.1 3.7 0.3 †
2000................................ 8,222 5,545 1,270 1,023 361 24 — 100.0 67.4 15.4 12.4 4.4 0.3 †
2003................................ 8,292 5,455 1,284 1,124 403 27 — 100.0 65.8 15.5 13.6 4.9 0.3 †
2005................................ 8,240 5,317 1,282 1,189 425 27 — 100.0 64.5 15.6 14.4 5.2 0.3 †
2008................................ 8,053 5,041 1,226 1,267 467 27 25 1 100.0 62.6 15.2 15.7 5.8 0.3 0.3 1
2009................................ 8,092 5,010 1,230 1,308 487 27 30 1 100.0 61.9 15.2 16.2 6.0 0.3 0.4 1
2010................................ 8,071 4,876 1,208 1,364 500 27 96 100.0 60.4 15.0 16.9 6.2 0.3 1.2
2011................................ 7,954 4,745 1,166 1,394 510 27 113 100.0 59.7 14.7 17.5 6.4 0.3 1.4
2012................................ 7,959 4,665 1,161 1,444 523 27 138 100.0 58.6 14.6 18.1 6.6 0.3 1.7
2013................................ 7,961 4,593 1,158 1,492 533 28 158 100.0 57.7 14.5 18.7 6.7 0.3 2.0
Midwest
1995................................ 10,512 8,335 1,450 438 197 92 — 100.0 79.3 13.8 4.2 1.9 0.9 †
2000................................ 10,730 8,208 1,581 610 239 92 — 100.0 76.5 14.7 5.7 2.2 0.9 †
2003................................ 10,809 8,055 1,644 751 262 97 — 100.0 74.5 15.2 7.0 2.4 0.9 †
2005................................ 10,819 7,950 1,654 836 283 96 — 100.0 73.5 15.3 7.7 2.6 0.9 †
2008................................ 10,743 7,734 1,632 963 314 99 — 100.0 72.0 15.2 9.0 2.9 0.9 †
2009................................ 10,672 7,622 1,606 1,000 318 98 29 1 100.0 71.4 15.0 9.4 3.0 0.9 0.3 1
2010................................ 10,610 7,327 1,505 1,077 312 94 294 100.0 69.1 14.2 10.2 2.9 0.9 2.8
2011................................ 10,574 7,240 1,485 1,127 321 90 311 100.0 68.5 14.0 10.7 3.0 0.9 2.9
2012................................ 10,559 7,175 1,464 1,167 330 89 334 100.0 68.0 13.9 11.1 3.1 0.8 3.2
2013................................ 10,573 7,111 1,464 1,212 341 87 358 100.0 67.3 13.8 11.5 3.2 0.8 3.4
South
1995................................ 16,118 9,565 4,236 1,890 280 148 — 100.0 59.3 26.3 11.7 1.7 0.9 †
2000................................ 17,007 9,501 4,516 2,468 352 170 — 100.0 55.9 26.6 14.5 2.1 1.0 †
2003................................ 17,673 9,437 4,656 2,980 410 189 — 100.0 53.4 26.3 16.9 2.3 1.1 †
2005................................ 18,103 9,381 4,738 3,334 456 194 — 100.0 51.8 26.2 18.4 2.5 1.1 †
2008................................ 18,491 9,190 4,771 3,790 537 203 — 100.0 49.7 25.8 20.5 2.9 1.1 †
2009................................ 18,652 9,074 4,710 4,039 555 219 55 1 100.0 48.6 25.3 21.7 3.0 1.2 0.3 1
2010................................ 18,805 8,869 4,545 4,206 555 207 424 100.0 47.2 24.2 22.4 3.0 1.1 2.3
2011................................ 18,956 8,830 4,535 4,353 577 198 463 100.0 46.6 23.9 23.0 3.0 1.0 2.4
2012................................ 19,128 8,780 4,545 4,513 595 191 504 100.0 45.9 23.8 23.6 3.1 1.0 2.6
2013................................ 19,299 8,722 4,561 4,671 614 185 546 100.0 45.2 23.6 24.2 3.2 1.0 2.8
West
1995................................ 10,316 5,648 662 2,866 896 244 — 100.0 54.7 6.4 27.8 8.7 2.4 †
2000................................ 11,244 5,624 733 3,625 998 264 — 100.0 50.0 6.5 32.2 8.9 2.4 †
2003................................ 11,766 5,496 765 4,156 1,070 280 — 100.0 46.7 6.5 35.3 9.1 2.4 †
2005................................ 11,951 5,356 771 4,428 1,115 281 — 100.0 44.8 6.5 37.1 9.3 2.4 †
2008................................ 11,979 5,092 728 4,543 1,133 261 222 1 100.0 42.5 6.1 37.9 9.5 2.2 1.9 1
2009................................ 11,945 4,997 699 4,645 1,124 256 223 1 100.0 41.8 5.9 38.9 9.4 2.1 1.9 1
2010................................ 11,998 4,861 659 4,792 1,100 237 349 100.0 40.5 5.5 39.9 9.2 2.0 2.9
2011................................ 12,038 4,787 642 4,886 1,105 233 385 100.0 39.8 5.3 40.6 9.2 1.9 3.2
2012................................ 12,124 4,766 632 4,978 1,104 227 417 100.0 39.3 5.2 41.1 9.1 1.9 3.4
2013................................ 12,212 4,733 623 5,077 1,105 224 449 100.0 38.8 5.1 41.6 9.1 1.8 3.7

—Not available. data on students of Two or more races were not collected. Some data have been revised from
†Not applicable. previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
1For this year, data on students of Two or more races were reported by only a small number of
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
states. Therefore, the data are not comparable to figures for 2010 and later years. Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary and Secondary Education,”
2Projected.
1995–96 through 2013–14; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Eth-
NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students not nicity Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)
reported by race/ethnicity were prorated by state and grade to match state totals. Prior to 2008,

46 Reference Tables
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Table 7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of
education: Fall 1999 through fall 2025
Enrollment (in thousands) Percentage distribution
Asian/Pacific Islander American Asian/Pacific Islander American
Indian/ Two or Indian/ Two or
Level of education His- Pacific Alaska more His- Pacific Alaska more
and year Total White Black panic Total Asian Islander Native races Total White Black panic Total Asian Islander Native races
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Total
1999............................... 46,857 29,035 8,066 7,327 1,887 — — 542 — 100.0 62.0 17.2 15.6 4.0 † † 1.2 †
2000............................... 47,204 28,878 8,100 7,726 1,950 — — 550 — 100.0 61.2 17.2 16.4 4.1 † † 1.2 †
2001............................... 47,672 28,735 8,177 8,169 2,028 — — 564 — 100.0 60.3 17.2 17.1 4.3 † † 1.2 †
2002............................... 48,183 28,618 8,299 8,594 2,088 — — 583 — 100.0 59.4 17.2 17.8 4.3 † † 1.2 †
2003............................... 48,540 28,442 8,349 9,011 2,145 — — 593 — 100.0 58.6 17.2 18.6 4.4 † † 1.2 †
2004............................... 48,795 28,318 8,386 9,317 2,183 — — 591 — 100.0 58.0 17.2 19.1 4.5 † † 1.2 †
2005............................... 49,113 28,005 8,445 9,787 2,279 — — 598 — 100.0 57.0 17.2 19.9 4.6 † † 1.2 †
2006............................... 49,316 27,801 8,422 10,166 2,332 — — 595 — 100.0 56.4 17.1 20.6 4.7 † † 1.2 †
2007............................... 49,291 27,454 8,392 10,454 2,396 — — 594 — 100.0 55.7 17.0 21.2 4.9 † † 1.2 †
2008............................... 49,266 27,057 8,358 10,563 2,451 2,405 46 589 247 1 100.0 54.9 17.0 21.4 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.5 1
2009............................... 49,361 26,702 8,245 10,991 2,484 2,435 49 601 338 1 100.0 54.1 16.7 22.3 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.7 1
2010............................... 49,484 25,933 7,917 11,439 2,466 2,296 171 566 1,164 100.0 52.4 16.0 23.1 5.0 4.6 0.3 1.1 2.4
2011............................... 49,522 25,602 7,827 11,759 2,513 2,334 179 547 1,272 100.0 51.7 15.8 23.7 5.1 4.7 0.4 1.1 2.6
2012............................... 49,771 25,386 7,803 12,104 2,552 2,372 180 534 1,393 100.0 51.0 15.7 24.3 5.1 4.8 0.4 1.1 2.8
2013............................... 50,045 25,160 7,805 12,452 2,593 2,417 176 523 1,511 100.0 50.3 15.6 24.9 5.2 4.8 0.4 1.0 3.0
20142 ............................. 50,132 25,007 7,828 12,740 2,637 2,463 174 516 1,404 100.0 49.9 15.6 25.4 5.3 4.9 0.3 1.0 2.8
20152 ............................. 50,268 24,789 7,817 13,030 2,678 2,506 172 508 1,445 100.0 49.3 15.6 25.9 5.3 5.0 0.3 1.0 2.9
20162 ............................. 50,385 24,566 7,806 13,306 2,723 2,553 170 499 1,484 100.0 48.8 15.5 26.4 5.4 5.1 0.3 1.0 2.9
20172 ............................. 50,477 24,340 7,796 13,563 2,769 2,600 168 490 1,519 100.0 48.2 15.4 26.9 5.5 5.2 0.3 1.0 3.0
20182 ............................. 50,528 24,128 7,776 13,791 2,799 2,633 167 483 1,552 100.0 47.8 15.4 27.3 5.5 5.2 0.3 1.0 3.1
20192 ............................. 50,618 23,993 7,754 13,964 2,846 2,682 164 472 1,590 100.0 47.4 15.3 27.6 5.6 5.3 0.3 0.9 3.1
20202 ............................. 50,774 23,882 7,756 14,142 2,892 2,730 162 463 1,638 100.0 47.0 15.3 27.9 5.7 5.4 0.3 0.9 3.2
20212 ............................. 50,928 23,777 7,774 14,300 2,934 2,775 160 457 1,685 100.0 46.7 15.3 28.1 5.8 5.4 0.3 0.9 3.3
20222 ............................. 51,084 23,686 7,799 14,437 2,979 2,821 158 451 1,731 100.0 46.4 15.3 28.3 5.8 5.5 0.3 0.9 3.4
20232 ............................. 51,225 23,614 7,819 14,541 3,029 2,872 157 447 1,777 100.0 46.1 15.3 28.4 5.9 5.6 0.3 0.9 3.5
20242 ............................. 51,338 23,544 7,832 14,615 3,083 2,926 157 443 1,821 100.0 45.9 15.3 28.5 6.0 5.7 0.3 0.9 3.5
20252 ............................. 51,420 23,465 7,836 14,677 3,139 2,981 158 439 1,863 100.0 45.6 15.2 28.5 6.1 5.8 0.3 0.9 3.6

Prekindergarten
through grade 8
1999............................... 33,486 20,327 5,952 5,512 1,303 — — 391 — 100.0 60.7 17.8 16.5 3.9 † † 1.2 †
2000............................... 33,686 20,130 5,981 5,830 1,349 — — 397 — 100.0 59.8 17.8 17.3 4.0 † † 1.2 †
2001............................... 33,936 19,960 6,004 6,159 1,409 — — 405 — 100.0 58.8 17.7 18.1 4.2 † † 1.2 †
2002............................... 34,114 19,764 6,042 6,446 1,447 — — 415 — 100.0 57.9 17.7 18.9 4.2 † † 1.2 †
2003............................... 34,201 19,558 6,015 6,729 1,483 — — 415 — 100.0 57.2 17.6 19.7 4.3 † † 1.2 †
2004............................... 34,178 19,368 5,983 6,909 1,504 — — 413 — 100.0 56.7 17.5 20.2 4.4 † † 1.2 †
2005............................... 34,204 19,051 5,954 7,216 1,569 — — 412 — 100.0 55.7 17.4 21.1 4.6 † † 1.2 †
2006............................... 34,235 18,863 5,882 7,465 1,611 — — 414 — 100.0 55.1 17.2 21.8 4.7 † † 1.2 †
2007............................... 34,204 18,679 5,821 7,632 1,660 — — 412 — 100.0 54.6 17.0 22.3 4.9 † † 1.2 †
2008............................... 34,286 18,501 5,793 7,689 1,705 1,674 31 410 187 1 100.0 54.0 16.9 22.4 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.5 1
2009............................... 34,409 18,316 5,713 7,977 1,730 1,697 33 419 254 1 100.0 53.2 16.6 23.2 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.7 1
2010............................... 34,625 17,823 5,495 8,314 1,711 1,589 122 394 887 100.0 51.5 15.9 24.0 4.9 4.6 0.4 1.1 2.6
2011............................... 34,773 17,654 5,470 8,558 1,744 1,616 128 384 963 100.0 50.8 15.7 24.6 5.0 4.6 0.4 1.1 2.8
2012............................... 35,018 17,535 5,473 8,804 1,773 1,644 129 375 1,057 100.0 50.1 15.6 25.1 5.1 4.7 0.4 1.1 3.0
2013............................... 35,251 17,390 5,483 9,054 1,809 1,683 126 367 1,148 100.0 49.3 15.6 25.7 5.1 4.8 0.4 1.0 3.3
20142 ............................. 35,249 17,258 5,486 9,246 1,834 1,710 124 361 1,064 100.0 49.0 15.6 26.2 5.2 4.9 0.4 1.0 3.0
20152 ............................. 35,298 17,079 5,473 9,438 1,860 1,737 122 355 1,093 100.0 48.4 15.5 26.7 5.3 4.9 0.3 1.0 3.1
20162 ............................. 35,402 16,940 5,480 9,623 1,886 1,765 121 349 1,123 100.0 47.9 15.5 27.2 5.3 5.0 0.3 1.0 3.2
20172 ............................. 35,451 16,791 5,495 9,764 1,905 1,786 120 344 1,152 100.0 47.4 15.5 27.5 5.4 5.0 0.3 1.0 3.2
20182 ............................. 35,491 16,662 5,510 9,881 1,920 1,802 118 341 1,177 100.0 46.9 15.5 27.8 5.4 5.1 0.3 1.0 3.3
20192 ............................. 35,543 16,618 5,507 9,930 1,952 1,836 116 333 1,204 100.0 46.8 15.5 27.9 5.5 5.2 0.3 0.9 3.4
20202 ............................. 35,559 16,560 5,500 9,948 1,985 1,871 115 327 1,238 100.0 46.6 15.5 28.0 5.6 5.3 0.3 0.9 3.5
20212 ............................. 35,541 16,496 5,482 9,949 2,021 1,907 114 323 1,271 100.0 46.4 15.4 28.0 5.7 5.4 0.3 0.9 3.6
20222 ............................. 35,558 16,449 5,468 9,966 2,054 1,940 114 319 1,301 100.0 46.3 15.4 28.0 5.8 5.5 0.3 0.9 3.7
20232 ............................. 35,712 16,456 5,480 10,029 2,099 1,985 114 316 1,331 100.0 46.1 15.3 28.1 5.9 5.6 0.3 0.9 3.7
20242 ............................. 35,878 16,469 5,501 10,087 2,142 2,027 114 314 1,365 100.0 45.9 15.3 28.1 6.0 5.6 0.3 0.9 3.8
20252 ............................. 36,052 16,483 5,523 10,150 2,184 2,070 115 313 1,399 100.0 45.7 15.3 28.2 6.1 5.7 0.3 0.9 3.9

Grades 9 through 12
1999............................... 13,371 8,708 2,114 1,815 584 — — 151 — 100.0 65.1 15.8 13.6 4.4 † † 1.1 †
2000............................... 13,517 8,747 2,119 1,896 601 — — 153 — 100.0 64.7 15.7 14.0 4.4 † † 1.1 †
2001............................... 13,736 8,774 2,173 2,011 619 — — 159 — 100.0 63.9 15.8 14.6 4.5 † † 1.2 †
2002............................... 14,069 8,854 2,257 2,148 642 — — 168 — 100.0 62.9 16.0 15.3 4.6 † † 1.2 †
2003............................... 14,339 8,884 2,334 2,282 663 — — 177 — 100.0 62.0 16.3 15.9 4.6 † † 1.2 †
2004............................... 14,618 8,950 2,403 2,408 679 — — 178 — 100.0 61.2 16.4 16.5 4.6 † † 1.2 †
2005............................... 14,909 8,954 2,490 2,570 709 — — 186 — 100.0 60.1 16.7 17.2 4.8 † † 1.2 †
2006............................... 15,081 8,938 2,540 2,701 720 — — 181 — 100.0 59.3 16.8 17.9 4.8 † † 1.2 †
2007............................... 15,086 8,775 2,571 2,821 736 — — 183 — 100.0 58.2 17.0 18.7 4.9 † † 1.2 †
2008............................... 14,980 8,556 2,565 2,874 746 731 15 179 59 1 100.0 57.1 17.1 19.2 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.4 1

See notes at end of table.

48 Reference Tables
Table 7. Enrollment and percentage distribution of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity and level of
education: Fall 1999 through fall 2025—Continued
Enrollment (in thousands) Percentage distribution
Asian/Pacific Islander American Asian/Pacific Islander American
Indian/ Two or Indian/ Two or
Level of education His- Pacific Alaska more His- Pacific Alaska more
and year Total White Black panic Total Asian Islander Native races Total White Black panic Total Asian Islander Native races
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2009............................... 14,952 8,385 2,532 3,014 754 738 16 182 84 1 100.0 56.1 16.9 20.2 5.0 4.9 0.1 1.2 0.6 1
2010............................... 14,860 8,109 2,422 3,125 755 707 49 171 277 100.0 54.6 16.3 21.0 5.1 4.8 0.3 1.2 1.9
2011............................... 14,749 7,948 2,357 3,202 769 719 50 163 309 100.0 53.9 16.0 21.7 5.2 4.9 0.3 1.1 2.1
2012............................... 14,753 7,851 2,330 3,300 779 727 51 158 335 100.0 53.2 15.8 22.4 5.3 4.9 0.3 1.1 2.3
2013............................... 14,794 7,770 2,322 3,398 784 733 51 156 363 100.0 52.5 15.7 23.0 5.3 5.0 0.3 1.1 2.5
20142 ............................. 14,883 7,749 2,342 3,494 804 753 50 155 340 100.0 52.1 15.7 23.5 5.4 5.1 0.3 1.0 2.3
20152 ............................. 14,970 7,710 2,345 3,592 819 769 50 153 352 100.0 51.5 15.7 24.0 5.5 5.1 0.3 1.0 2.3
20162 ............................. 14,983 7,626 2,326 3,683 837 788 49 150 361 100.0 50.9 15.5 24.6 5.6 5.3 0.3 1.0 2.4
20172 ............................. 15,026 7,550 2,300 3,800 863 815 48 146 367 100.0 50.2 15.3 25.3 5.7 5.4 0.3 1.0 2.4
20182 ............................. 15,037 7,466 2,266 3,909 879 831 48 142 375 100.0 49.6 15.1 26.0 5.8 5.5 0.3 0.9 2.5
20192 ............................. 15,075 7,375 2,247 4,034 894 846 48 139 386 100.0 48.9 14.9 26.8 5.9 5.6 0.3 0.9 2.6
20202 ............................. 15,215 7,322 2,256 4,194 907 860 47 136 400 100.0 48.1 14.8 27.6 6.0 5.7 0.3 0.9 2.6
20212 ............................. 15,387 7,281 2,292 4,351 913 868 46 134 415 100.0 47.3 14.9 28.3 5.9 5.6 0.3 0.9 2.7
20222 ............................. 15,526 7,237 2,331 4,470 924 880 44 133 430 100.0 46.6 15.0 28.8 6.0 5.7 0.3 0.9 2.8
20232 ............................. 15,514 7,158 2,339 4,512 929 886 43 131 445 100.0 46.1 15.1 29.1 6.0 5.7 0.3 0.8 2.9
20242 ............................. 15,460 7,075 2,331 4,528 942 899 43 129 455 100.0 45.8 15.1 29.3 6.1 5.8 0.3 0.8 2.9
20252 ............................. 15,368 6,982 2,313 4,527 955 912 43 127 464 100.0 45.4 15.1 29.5 6.2 5.9 0.3 0.8 3.0

—Not available. of ungraded students were prorated to prekindergarten through grade 8 and grades 9
†Not applicable. through 12 based on prior reports. Some data have been revised from previously published
1
For this year, data on students of Two or more races were reported by only a small number figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
of states. Therefore, the data are not comparable to figures for 2010 and later years. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
2Projected. mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary and Secondary
NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students Education,” 1998–99 through 2013–14; and National Elementary and Secondary Enroll-
not reported by race/ethnicity were prorated by state and grade to match state totals. Prior ment by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This table was prepared
to 2008, data on students of Two or more races were not collected separately. Total counts January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 49

Table 8. Public and private elementary and secondary teachers, enrollment, pupil/teacher ratios, and new teacher hires: Selected years, fall 1955
through fall 2025
Number of new teacher hires
Teachers (in thousands) Enrollment (in thousands) Pupil/teacher ratio (in thousands)1
Year Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1955........................................ 1,286 1,141 145 2 35,280 30,680 4,600 2 27.4 26.9 31.7 2 — — —
1960........................................ 1,600 1,408 192 2 42,181 36,281 5,900 2 26.4 25.8 30.7 2 — — —
1965........................................ 1,933 1,710 223 48,473 42,173 6,300 25.1 24.7 28.3 — — —
1970........................................ 2,292 2,059 233 51,257 45,894 5,363 22.4 22.3 23.0 — — —
1975........................................ 2,453 2,198 255 2 49,819 44,819 5,000 2 20.3 20.4 19.6 2 — — —
1976........................................ 2,457 2,189 268 49,478 44,311 5,167 20.1 20.2 19.3 — — —
1977........................................ 2,488 2,209 279 48,717 43,577 5,140 19.6 19.7 18.4 — — —
1978........................................ 2,479 2,207 272 47,637 42,551 5,086 19.2 19.3 18.7 — — —
1979........................................ 2,461 2,185 276 2 46,651 41,651 5,000 2 19.0 19.1 18.1 2 — — —
1980........................................ 2,485 2,184 301 46,208 40,877 5,331 18.6 18.7 17.7
1981........................................ 2,440 2,127 313 2 45,544 40,044 5,500 2 18.7 18.8 17.6 2 — — —
1982........................................ 2,458 2,133 325 2 45,166 39,566 5,600 2 18.4 18.6 17.2 2 — — —
1983........................................ 2,476 2,139 337 44,967 39,252 5,715 18.2 18.4 17.0 — — —
1984........................................ 2,508 2,168 340 2 44,908 39,208 5,700 2 17.9 18.1 16.8 2 — — —
1985........................................ 2,549 2,206 343 44,979 39,422 5,557 17.6 17.9 16.2 — — —
1986........................................ 2,592 2,244 348 2 45,205 39,753 5,452 2 17.4 17.7 15.7 2 — — —
1987........................................ 2,631 2,279 352 45,488 40,008 5,479 17.3 17.6 15.6 — — —
1988........................................ 2,668 2,323 345 2 45,430 40,189 5,242 2 17.0 17.3 15.2 2 — — —
1989........................................ 2,713 2,357 356 46,141 40,543 5,599 17.0 17.2 15.7 — — —
1990........................................ 2,759 2,398 361 2 46,864 41,217 5,648 2 17.0 17.2 15.6 2 — — —
1991........................................ 2,797 2,432 365 47,728 42,047 5,681 17.1 17.3 15.6 — — —
1992........................................ 2,823 2,459 364 2 48,694 42,823 5,870 2 17.2 17.4 16.1 2 — — —
1993........................................ 2,868 2,504 364 49,532 43,465 6,067 17.3 17.4 16.7 — — —
1994........................................ 2,922 2,552 370 2 50,106 44,111 5,994 2 17.1 17.3 16.2 2 — — —
1995........................................ 2,974 2,598 376 50,759 44,840 5,918 17.1 17.3 15.7 — — —
1996........................................ 3,051 2,667 384 2 51,544 45,611 5,933 2 16.9 17.1 15.5 2 — — —
1997........................................ 3,138 2,746 391 52,071 46,127 5,944 16.6 16.8 15.2 — — —
1998........................................ 3,230 2,830 400 2 52,526 46,539 5,988 2 16.3 16.4 15.0 2 — — —
1999........................................ 3,319 2,911 408 52,875 46,857 6,018 15.9 16.1 14.7 305 222 83
2000........................................ 3,366 2,941 424 2 53,373 47,204 6,169 2 15.9 16.0 14.5 2 — — —
2001........................................ 3,440 3,000 441 53,992 47,672 6,320 15.7 15.9 14.3 — — —
2002........................................ 3,476 3,034 442 2 54,403 48,183 6,220 2 15.7 15.9 14.1 2 — — —
2003........................................ 3,490 3,049 441 54,639 48,540 6,099 15.7 15.9 13.8 311 236 74
2004........................................ 3,536 3,091 445 2 54,882 48,795 6,087 2 15.5 15.8 13.7 2 — — —
2005........................................ 3,593 3,143 450 55,187 49,113 6,073 15.4 15.6 13.5 — — —
2006........................................ 3,622 3,166 456 2 55,307 49,316 5,991 2 15.3 15.6 13.2 2 — — —
2007........................................ 3,656 3,200 456 55,201 49,291 5,910 15.1 15.4 13.0 241 173 68
2008........................................ 3,670 3,222 448 2 54,973 49,266 5,707 2 15.0 15.3 12.8 2 — — —
2009........................................ 3,647 3,210 437 54,849 49,361 5,488 15.0 15.4 12.5 — — —
2010........................................ 3,529 3,099 429 2 54,867 49,484 5,382 2 15.5 16.0 12.5 2 — — —
2011........................................ 3,524 3,103 421 54,790 49,522 5,268 15.5 16.0 12.5 241 173 68
2012........................................ 3,540 3,109 431 2 55,104 49,771 5,333 2 15.6 16.0 12.4 2 338 247 91
2013........................................ 3,555 3,114 441 55,440 50,045 5,396 15.6 16.1 12.2 334 244 90
20143 ...................................... 3,555 3,119 435 55,454 50,132 5,322 15.6 16.1 12.2 322 246 76
20153 ...................................... 3,560 3,128 432 55,546 50,268 5,278 15.6 16.1 12.2 328 251 77
20163 ...................................... 3,563 3,135 428 55,620 50,385 5,235 15.6 16.1 12.2 325 249 76
20173 ...................................... 3,565 3,141 424 55,661 50,477 5,183 15.6 16.1 12.2 322 247 76
20183 ...................................... 3,592 3,168 424 55,665 50,528 5,136 15.5 15.9 12.1 347 268 78
20193 ...................................... 3,615 3,192 424 55,726 50,618 5,108 15.4 15.9 12.1 343 265 79
20203 ...................................... 3,636 3,213 423 55,862 50,774 5,088 15.4 15.8 12.0 342 263 79
20213 ...................................... 3,661 3,237 424 55,998 50,928 5,070 15.3 15.7 12.0 346 267 79
20223 ...................................... 3,686 3,261 425 56,146 51,084 5,062 15.2 15.7 11.9 348 268 80
20233 ...................................... 3,712 3,285 427 56,291 51,225 5,065 15.2 15.6 11.9 350 269 82
20243 ...................................... 3,739 3,309 430 56,416 51,338 5,078 15.1 15.5 11.8 353 270 83
20253 ...................................... 3,761 3,327 433 56,510 51,420 5,090 15.0 15.5 11.8 350 267 83

—Not available. from class size calculations. Ratios for public schools reflect totals reported by states and
1A teacher is considered to be a new hire for a public or private school if the teacher had
differ from totals reported for schools or school districts. Some data have been revised from
not taught in that control of school in the previous year. A teacher who moves from a public previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
to private or a private to public school is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statis-
moves from one public school to another public school or one private school to another pri- tics of Public Elementary and Secondary Day Schools, 1955–56 through 1980–81; Statis-
vate school is not considered a new teacher hire. tics of Nonpublic Elementary and Secondary Schools, 1955 through 1980; 1983–84,
2
Estimated. 1985–86, and 1987–88 Private School Survey; Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Non-
3
Projected. fiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1981–82 through 2013–14; Pri-
NOTE: Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private vate School Universe Survey (PSS), 1989–90 through 2013–14; Schools and Staffing
school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offer- Survey (SASS), “Public School Teacher Data File” and “Private School Teacher Data File,”
ing kindergarten or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers and enrollment include 1999–2000 through 2011–12; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973
prekindergarten through grade 12. The pupil/teacher ratio includes teachers for students through 2025; and New Teacher Hires Projection Model, 1988 through 2025. (This table
with disabilities and other special teachers, while these teachers are generally excluded was prepared February 2016.)

50 Reference Tables
Table 9. High school graduates, by sex and control of school: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2025–26
High school graduates Averaged
freshman
Sex Control graduation Graduates as
Public2 rate for a ratio of 17-
public Population year-old
1 3 4
School year Total Males Females Total Males Females Private, total schools 17 years old population
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1869–70................................................ 16,000 7,064 8,936 — — — — — 815,000 2.0
1879–80................................................ 23,634 10,605 13,029 — — — — — 946,026 2.5
1889–90................................................ 43,731 18,549 25,182 21,882 — — 21,849 55 — 1,259,177 3.5
1899–1900............................................ 94,883 38,075 56,808 61,737 — — 33,146 5 — 1,489,146 6.4
1909–10................................................ 156,429 63,676 92,753 111,363 — — 45,066 — 1,786,240 8.8
1919–20................................................ 311,266 123,684 187,582 230,902 — — 80,364 5 — 1,855,173 16.8
1929–30................................................ 666,904 300,376 366,528 591,719 — — 75,185 5 — 2,295,822 29.0
1939–40................................................ 1,221,475 578,718 642,757 1,143,246 538,273 604,973 78,229 5 — 2,403,074 50.8
1949–50................................................ 1,199,700 570,700 629,000 1,063,444 505,394 558,050 136,256 5 — 2,034,450 59.0
1959–60................................................ 1,858,023 895,000 963,000 1,627,050 791,426 835,624 230,973 — 2,672,000 69.5
1969–70................................................ 2,888,639 1,430,000 1,459,000 2,588,639 1,285,895 1,302,744 300,000 5 78.7 3,757,000 76.9
1975–76................................................ 3,142,120 1,552,000 1,590,000 2,837,129 1,401,064 1,436,065 304,991 74.9 4,272,000 73.6
1979–80................................................ 3,042,214 1,503,000 1,539,000 2,747,678 — — 294,536 5 71.5 4,262,000 71.4
1980–81................................................ 3,020,285 1,492,000 1,528,000 2,725,285 — — 295,000 5 72.2 4,212,000 71.7
1981–82................................................ 2,994,758 1,479,000 1,515,000 2,704,758 — — 290,000 5 72.9 4,134,000 72.4
1982–83................................................ 2,887,604 1,426,000 1,461,000 2,597,604 — — 290,000 73.8 3,962,000 72.9
1983–84................................................ 2,766,797 — — 2,494,797 — — 272,000 5 74.5 3,784,000 73.1
1984–85................................................ 2,676,917 — — 2,413,917 — — 263,000 55 74.2 3,699,000 72.4
1985–86................................................ 2,642,616 — — 2,382,616 — — 260,000 5 74.3 3,670,000 72.0
1986–87................................................ 2,693,803 — — 2,428,803 — — 265,000 5 74.3 3,754,000 71.8
1987–88................................................ 2,773,020 — — 2,500,020 — — 273,000 74.2 3,849,000 72.0
1988–89................................................ 2,743,743 — — 2,458,800 — — 284,943 73.4 3,842,000 71.4
1989–906 .............................................. 2,574,162 — — 2,320,337 — — 253,825 7 73.6 3,505,000 73.4
1990–91................................................ 2,492,988 — — 2,234,893 — — 258,095 7 73.7 3,417,913 72.9
1991–92................................................ 2,480,399 — — 2,226,016 — — 254,383 74.2 3,398,884 73.0
1992–93................................................ 2,480,519 — — 2,233,241 — — 247,278 5 73.8 3,449,143 71.9
1993–94................................................ 2,463,849 — — 2,220,849 — — 243,000 73.1 3,442,521 71.6
1994–95................................................ 2,519,084 — — 2,273,541 — — 245,543 5 71.8 3,635,803 69.3
1995–96................................................ 2,518,109 — — 2,273,109 — — 245,000 71.0 3,640,132 69.2
1996–97................................................ 2,611,988 — — 2,358,403 — — 253,585 5 71.3 3,792,207 68.9
1997–98................................................ 2,704,050 — — 2,439,050 1,187,647 1,251,403 265,000 71.3 4,008,416 67.5
1998–99................................................ 2,758,655 — — 2,485,630 1,212,924 1,272,706 273,025 71.1 3,917,885 70.4
1999–2000............................................ 2,832,844 — — 2,553,844 1,241,631 1,312,213 279,000 5 71.7 4,056,639 69.8
2000–01................................................ 2,847,973 — — 2,569,200 1,251,931 1,317,269 278,773 71.7 4,023,686 70.8
2001–02................................................ 2,906,534 — — 2,621,534 1,275,813 1,345,721 285,000 5 72.6 4,023,968 72.2
2002–03................................................ 3,015,735 — — 2,719,947 1,330,973 1,388,974 295,788 5 73.9 4,125,087 73.1
2003–046,8 ............................................ 3,054,438 — — 2,753,438 1,347,800 1,405,638 301,000 74.3 4,113,074 74.3
2004–05................................................ 3,106,499 — — 2,799,250 1,369,749 1,429,501 307,249 5 74.7 4,120,073 75.4
2005–066 .............................................. 3,122,544 — — 2,815,544 1,376,458 1,439,086 307,000 73.4 4,200,554 74.3
2006–07................................................ 3,199,650 — — 2,893,045 1,414,069 1,478,976 306,605 5 73.9 4,297,239 74.5
2007–08................................................ 3,312,337 — — 3,001,337 1,467,180 1,534,157 311,000 74.7 4,436,955 74.7
2008–096 .............................................. 3,347,828 — — 3,039,015 1,490,317 1,548,698 308,813 75.5 4,336,950 77.2
2009–10................................................ 3,439,102 — — 3,128,022 1,542,684 9 1,585,338 9 311,080 5 78.2 4,311,831 79.8
2010–11................................................ 3,449,940 — — 3,144,100 1,552,981 1,591,113 305,840 5 79.6 4,368,154 79.0
2011–12................................................ 3,455,405 — — 3,149,185 1,558,489 1,590,694 306,220 80.8 4,294,956 80.5
2012–13................................................ 3,478,027 — — 3,169,257 1,569,675 1,599,579 308,770 81.9 4,257,599 81.7
2013–1410 ............................................ 3,480,130 — — 3,168,650 — — 311,480 — 4,187,691 83.1
2014–1510 ............................................ 3,477,620 — — 3,166,260 — — 311,360 — 4,172,212 83.4
2015–1610
10
............................................ 3,505,920 — — 3,192,220 — — 313,700 — — —
2016–1710 ............................................ 3,510,330 — — 3,195,630 — — 314,700 — — —
2017–18 ............................................ 3,558,100 — — 3,242,620 — — 315,480 — — —
2018–1910 ............................................ 3,549,010 — — 3,242,630 — — 306,380 — — —
2019–2010 ............................................ 3,509,360 — — 3,208,110 — — 301,250 — — —
2020–2110 ............................................ 3,535,980 — — 3,233,840 — — 302,140 — — —
2021–2210 ............................................ 3,543,910 — — 3,248,980 — — 294,930 — — —
2022–2310 ............................................ 3,558,600 — — 3,272,620 — — 285,980 — — —
2023–2410 ............................................ 3,604,410 — — 3,326,230 — — 278,180 — — —
2024–2510 ............................................ 3,658,340 — — 3,378,810 — — 279,530 — — —
2025–2610 ............................................ 3,650,620 — — 3,371,680 — — 278,940 — — —

9
—Not available. Includes estimate for Connecticut, which did not report graduates by sex.
1Includes graduates of public and private schools. 10Projected by NCES.
2Data for 1929–30 and preceding years are from Statistics of Public High Schools and exclude NOTE: Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs,
graduates from high schools that failed to report to the Office of Education. Includes estimates for when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Some data have
jurisdictions not reporting counts of graduates by sex. been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding
3The averaged freshman graduation rate provides an estimate of the percentage of students who and adjustments to protect student privacy.
receive a regular diploma within 4 years of entering ninth grade. The rate uses aggregate student SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Annual Report
enrollment data to estimate the size of an incoming freshman class and aggregate counts of the of the Commissioner of Education, 1870 through 1910; Biennial Survey of Education in the United
number of diplomas awarded 4 years later. Averaged freshman graduation rates in this table are States, 1919–20 through 1949–50; Statistics of State School Systems, 1951–52 through 1957–
based on reported totals of enrollment by grade and high school graduates, rather than on details 58; Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems, 1958–59 through 1980–81;
reported by race/ethnicity. Statistics of Nonpublic Elementary and Secondary Schools, 1959 through 1980; Common Core
4Derived from Current Population Reports, Series P-25. For years 1869–70 through 1989–90, 17-year- of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 1981–82
old population is an estimate of the October 17-year-old population based on July data. Data for 1990– through 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06 through 2012–13; Public
91 and later years are October resident population estimates prepared by the Census Bureau. School Graduates and Dropouts From the Common Core of Data, 2007–08 and 2008–09; Pri-
5Estimated. vate School Universe Survey (PSS), 1989–90 through 2013–14; and National High School Grad-
6
Includes imputations for nonreporting states. uates Projection Model, 1972–73 through 2025–26. U.S. Department of Commerce, Census
7Projected by private schools responding to the Private School Universe Survey. Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved August 11, 2011, from http://www.census.gov/popest/
8Includes estimates for public schools in New York and Wisconsin. Without estimates for these national/asrh/2009-nat-res.html and Population Estimates, retrieved December 18, 2015, from
two states, the averaged freshman graduation rate for the remaining 48 states and the District of http://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/2014/2014-nat-res.html. (This table was pre-
Columbia is 75.0 percent. pared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 51

Table 10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980–81 through 2025–26
Actual data Projected data
Region, state,
and jurisdiction 1980–81 1989–90 1999–2000 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
United States .... 2,725,285 2,320,337 1 2,553,844 2,893,045 3,001,337 3,039,015 1 3,128,022 3,144,100 3,149,185 3,169,257 3,168,650 3,166,260 3,192,220
Region
Northeast ................... 593,727 446,045 453,814 536,697 552,289 552,973 556,400 556,611 554,705 555,202 546,940 541,890 539,000
Midwest...................... 784,071 616,700 648,020 702,987 721,220 717,536 726,844 718,779 716,072 713,662 705,590 702,490 704,950
South ......................... 868,068 796,385 861,498 986,801 1,031,773 1,068,270 1,104,770 1,119,414 1,121,400 1,138,965 1,145,650 1,154,890 1,176,960
West........................... 479,419 461,207 590,512 666,560 696,055 700,236 740,008 749,296 757,008 761,428 770,470 766,990 771,310
State
Alabama..................... 44,894 40,485 37,819 38,912 41,346 42,082 43,166 46,035 45,394 44,233 44,540 45,210 44,450
Alaska ........................ 5,343 5,386 6,615 7,666 7,855 8,008 8,245 8,064 7,989 7,860 7,720 7,450 7,360
Arizona....................... 28,416 32,103 38,304 55,954 61,667 62,374 61,145 64,472 63,208 62,208 66,710 65,520 65,740
Arkansas.................... 29,577 26,475 27,335 27,166 28,725 28,057 28,276 28,205 28,419 28,928 29,610 30,360 30,520
California.................... 242,172 236,291 309,866 356,641 374,561 372,310 2 404,987 410,467 418,664 422,125 424,110 420,920 420,140
Colorado .................... 35,897 32,967 38,924 45,628 46,082 47,459 49,321 50,122 50,087 50,968 51,310 51,890 53,470
Connecticut................ 38,369 27,878 31,562 37,541 38,419 34,968 34,495 38,854 38,681 38,722 37,860 36,660 36,650
Delaware.................... 7,349 5,550 6,108 7,205 7,388 7,839 8,133 8,043 8,247 8,070 8,240 8,150 8,090
District of Columbia3 .. 4,848 3,626 2,695 2,944 3,352 3,517 3,602 3,477 3,860 3,961 3,880 3,920 3,910
Florida........................ 88,755 88,934 106,708 142,284 149,046 153,461 156,130 155,493 151,964 158,029 158,450 162,200 162,630
Georgia ...................... 62,963 56,605 62,563 77,829 83,505 88,003 91,561 92,338 90,582 92,416 94,390 96,530 99,150
Hawaii ........................ 11,472 10,325 10,437 11,063 11,613 11,508 10,998 10,716 11,360 10,790 11,050 10,900 10,760
Idaho.......................... 12,679 11,971 16,170 16,242 16,567 16,807 17,793 17,525 17,568 17,198 19,120 18,800 19,820
Illinois......................... 136,795 108,119 111,835 130,220 135,143 131,670 139,035 134,956 139,575 139,228 137,650 139,000 136,900
Indiana ....................... 73,381 60,012 57,012 59,887 61,901 63,663 64,551 66,133 65,667 66,595 67,560 66,840 66,890
Iowa ........................... 42,635 31,796 33,926 34,127 34,573 33,926 34,462 33,853 33,230 32,548 32,600 32,640 32,820
Kansas....................... 29,397 25,367 29,102 30,139 30,737 30,368 31,642 31,370 31,898 31,922 32,150 31,750 32,750
Kentucky .................... 41,714 38,005 36,830 39,099 39,339 41,851 42,664 43,031 42,642 42,888 42,400 41,640 41,900
Louisiana ................... 46,199 36,053 38,430 34,274 34,401 35,622 36,573 35,844 36,675 37,508 38,190 37,240 38,440
Maine ......................... 15,554 13,839 12,211 13,151 14,350 4 14,093 4 14,069 13,653 13,473 13,170 12,730 12,650 12,730
Maryland.................... 54,050 41,566 47,849 57,564 59,171 58,304 59,078 58,745 58,811 58,896 58,130 57,350 57,290
Massachusetts........... 74,831 55,941 5 52,950 63,903 65,197 65,258 64,462 64,724 65,157 66,360 65,200 65,570 66,560
Michigan .................... 124,372 93,807 97,679 111,838 115,183 112,742 110,682 106,017 105,446 104,210 102,520 101,310 101,840
Minnesota .................. 64,166 49,087 57,372 59,497 60,409 59,729 59,667 59,357 57,501 58,255 56,380 57,150 56,590
Mississippi ................. 28,083 25,182 24,232 24,186 24,795 24,505 25,478 27,321 26,158 26,502 26,650 25,910 25,890
Missouri ..................... 60,359 48,957 52,848 60,275 61,717 62,969 63,994 62,994 61,313 61,407 60,900 60,780 61,640
Montana..................... 11,634 9,370 10,903 10,122 10,396 10,077 10,075 9,732 9,750 9,369 9,470 9,420 9,480
Nebraska ................... 21,411 17,664 20,149 19,873 20,035 19,501 19,370 20,331 20,464 20,442 20,580 20,860 21,120
Nevada....................... 9,069 9,477 14,551 17,149 18,815 19,904 2 20,956 21,182 21,891 23,038 22,720 22,100 22,490
New Hampshire ......... 11,552 10,766 11,829 14,452 14,982 14,757 15,034 14,495 14,426 14,262 13,790 13,560 13,510
New Jersey ................ 93,168 69,824 74,420 93,013 94,994 95,085 96,225 95,186 93,819 96,490 95,230 95,640 95,400
New Mexico ............... 17,915 14,884 18,031 16,131 18,264 17,931 18,595 19,352 20,315 19,232 18,590 19,180 18,690
New York.................... 198,465 143,318 141,731 168,333 176,310 180,917 183,826 182,759 180,806 180,351 178,820 179,220 178,550
North Carolina ........... 69,395 64,782 62,140 76,031 83,307 86,712 88,704 89,892 93,977 94,339 96,220 96,520 98,260
North Dakota.............. 9,924 7,690 8,606 7,159 6,999 7,232 7,155 7,156 6,942 6,900 6,960 7,020 7,200
Ohio ........................... 143,503 114,513 111,668 117,658 120,758 122,203 123,437 124,229 123,135 122,491 119,520 116,970 118,530
Oklahoma .................. 38,875 35,606 37,646 37,100 37,630 37,219 38,503 37,744 37,305 37,033 37,260 37,640 38,930
Oregon....................... 28,729 25,473 30,151 33,446 34,949 35,138 34,671 34,723 34,261 33,899 34,450 34,010 34,620
Pennsylvania.............. 144,645 110,527 113,959 128,603 130,298 130,658 131,182 130,284 131,733 129,777 127,210 122,630 119,790
Rhode Island.............. 10,719 7,825 8,477 10,384 10,347 10,028 9,908 9,724 9,751 9,579 9,730 9,630 9,630
South Carolina ........... 38,347 32,483 31,617 35,108 35,303 39,114 40,438 40,708 41,442 42,246 41,720 42,300 43,500
South Dakota ............. 10,385 7,650 9,278 8,346 8,582 8,123 8,162 8,248 8,196 8,239 7,960 7,910 7,800
Tennessee.................. 50,648 46,094 41,568 54,502 57,486 60,368 62,408 61,862 62,454 61,323 60,980 60,770 61,180
Texas.......................... 171,665 172,480 212,925 241,193 252,121 264,275 280,894 290,470 292,531 301,390 304,380 308,820 320,520
Utah ........................... 19,886 21,196 32,501 28,276 28,167 30,463 31,481 30,888 31,157 33,186 33,400 34,260 35,550
Vermont ..................... 6,424 6,127 6,675 7,317 7,392 7,209 7,199 6,932 6,859 6,491 6,360 6,330 6,170
Virginia....................... 67,126 60,605 65,596 73,997 77,369 79,651 81,511 82,895 83,336 83,279 83,100 82,900 84,560
Washington ................ 50,046 45,941 57,597 62,801 61,625 62,764 66,046 66,453 65,205 66,066 66,240 66,990 67,500
West Virginia.............. 23,580 21,854 19,437 17,407 17,489 17,690 17,651 17,311 17,603 17,924 17,520 17,420 17,740
Wisconsin .................. 67,743 52,038 58,545 63,968 65,183 65,410 64,687 64,135 62,705 61,425 60,820 60,240 60,850
Wyoming .................... 6,161 5,823 6,462 5,441 5,494 5,493 5,695 5,600 5,553 5,489 5,590 5,560 5,700
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education............. — — — — — — — — — — — — —
DoD, overseas............ — — 2,642 — — — — — — — — — —
DoD, domestic............ — — 560 — — — — — — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa ... — 703 698 954 — — — — — — — — —
Guam ..................... — 1,033 1,406 — — — — — — — — — —
Northern Marianas . — 227 360 643 — — — — — — — — —
Puerto Rico ............ — 29,049 30,856 31,718 30,016 29,286 25,514 26,231 25,720 — — — —
U.S. Virgin Islands.. — 1,260 1,060 820 820 940 958 1,014 1,046 897 — — —

See notes at end of table.

52 Reference Tables
Table 10. Public high school graduates, by region, state, and jurisdiction: Selected years, 1980–81 through 2025–26—Continued
Projected data
Percent
change,
Region, state, 2012–13 to
and jurisdiction 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2025–26
1 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
United States .... 3,195,630 3,242,620 3,242,630 3,208,110 3,233,840 3,248,980 3,272,620 3,326,230 3,378,810 3,371,680 6.4
Region
Northeast ................... 534,910 536,910 532,910 525,990 530,150 529,890 526,380 532,020 541,880 535,840 -3.5
Midwest...................... 703,690 715,240 713,800 701,690 705,420 714,230 709,600 717,080 724,370 718,480 0.7
South ......................... 1,188,240 1,213,240 1,220,330 1,206,310 1,210,460 1,213,120 1,234,320 1,257,450 1,299,490 1,303,110 14.4
West........................... 768,800 777,230 775,590 774,120 787,810 791,740 802,310 819,690 813,070 814,240 6.9
State
Alabama..................... 44,660 45,200 44,250 43,020 42,590 42,440 42,620 43,000 44,510 44,140 -0.2
Alaska ........................ 7,520 7,430 7,370 7,130 7,130 7,350 7,540 7,810 8,000 7,980 1.6
Arizona....................... 63,730 64,390 64,220 64,670 66,470 67,500 69,390 70,890 72,600 72,970 17.3
Arkansas.................... 30,330 30,330 30,480 30,320 29,910 30,040 29,850 29,690 31,820 31,490 8.8
California.................... 415,710 420,520 416,700 414,980 422,540 422,530 427,010 436,140 417,570 417,430 -1.1
Colorado .................... 54,340 55,580 56,580 57,260 58,550 58,600 59,360 60,440 61,580 61,550 20.8
Connecticut................ 36,520 35,910 35,580 34,750 35,330 34,360 34,200 33,490 33,910 33,130 -14.4
Delaware.................... 8,330 8,360 8,350 8,480 8,860 8,830 9,050 9,290 9,190 9,160 13.5
District of Columbia3 .. 3,830 3,920 3,940 3,750 3,750 3,830 4,160 4,300 4,710 4,880 23.1
Florida........................ 165,540 167,270 168,390 164,800 164,770 166,960 170,250 174,690 181,370 183,470 16.1
Georgia ...................... 100,540 102,560 103,750 102,380 101,700 102,220 103,710 105,840 108,930 109,110 18.1
Hawaii ........................ 10,660 11,080 10,640 11,140 11,350 11,400 11,670 11,640 12,170 12,100 12.1
Idaho.......................... 20,790 20,930 21,340 21,160 21,430 22,250 23,110 23,770 25,190 25,150 46.2
Illinois......................... 137,350 141,510 141,890 139,730 142,530 145,760 143,530 143,900 143,390 139,980 0.5
Indiana ....................... 67,120 67,700 69,160 66,250 64,380 65,710 64,220 65,020 66,210 65,920 -1.0
Iowa ........................... 33,000 33,490 33,120 33,180 33,550 33,630 34,210 34,960 35,660 35,730 9.8
Kansas....................... 32,650 33,530 33,630 33,430 34,080 34,120 34,600 35,210 36,250 36,040 12.9
Kentucky .................... 41,440 41,890 41,980 40,710 41,480 41,450 40,530 40,640 41,370 41,110 -4.2
Louisiana ................... 38,170 39,780 38,900 38,840 38,250 37,840 38,260 38,880 40,300 40,090 6.9
Maine ......................... 12,410 12,240 12,110 11,830 11,780 11,930 11,890 11,720 11,820 11,630 -11.7
Maryland.................... 56,300 57,550 57,020 58,930 59,420 60,260 61,010 62,600 64,900 65,310 10.9
Massachusetts........... 65,730 65,850 65,830 65,210 65,450 65,100 64,300 64,880 66,130 64,750 -2.4
Michigan .................... 100,160 101,570 99,430 96,400 96,040 96,850 94,090 94,610 94,670 93,490 -10.3
Minnesota .................. 57,300 58,200 59,130 58,620 60,270 61,880 62,390 63,860 65,150 64,690 11.0
Mississippi ................. 26,070 26,830 25,820 25,370 24,480 24,730 24,620 25,370 26,770 26,230 -1.0
Missouri ..................... 60,860 61,060 60,530 59,650 59,580 59,880 60,290 60,820 62,260 62,050 1.0
Montana..................... 9,480 9,250 9,480 9,530 9,530 9,690 9,720 10,190 10,160 10,330 10.2
Nebraska ................... 21,420 22,030 22,350 22,760 22,970 23,490 23,420 23,790 22,450 23,190 13.4
Nevada....................... 22,860 23,040 23,420 23,390 23,520 23,640 24,270 24,940 26,210 26,520 15.1
New Hampshire ......... 13,050 12,970 12,690 12,660 12,400 12,410 12,130 12,080 11,960 11,740 -17.7
New Jersey ................ 94,520 94,950 94,780 93,810 94,440 94,980 93,870 94,710 96,890 95,970 -0.5
New Mexico ............... 19,100 19,090 19,440 19,290 19,020 19,290 19,450 19,550 20,100 19,850 3.2
New York.................... 177,440 179,510 176,920 175,600 177,800 176,870 177,240 181,430 185,130 183,720 1.9
North Carolina ........... 98,540 100,790 101,870 100,130 100,090 93,300 100,230 103,100 105,800 105,360 11.7
North Dakota.............. 7,250 7,080 7,420 7,540 7,810 8,290 8,460 9,230 9,540 9,940 44.0
Ohio ........................... 117,520 119,010 117,970 115,700 115,150 114,750 114,380 115,230 116,470 115,580 -5.6
Oklahoma .................. 39,530 40,060 40,160 40,210 40,910 41,150 41,350 42,140 43,800 43,870 18.5
Oregon....................... 34,400 34,410 34,300 34,050 34,440 34,650 34,800 35,730 36,880 37,070 9.4
Pennsylvania.............. 120,200 120,440 119,470 116,730 117,680 118,720 117,430 118,670 120,470 119,630 -7.8
Rhode Island.............. 8,750 9,020 9,530 9,500 9,420 9,610 9,280 9,240 9,600 9,420 -1.6
South Carolina ........... 44,600 45,630 45,830 44,800 44,760 45,220 46,000 47,810 49,850 50,160 18.7
South Dakota ............. 7,880 8,040 7,830 7,970 8,100 8,280 8,750 8,820 9,120 9,180 11.4
Tennessee.................. 62,040 62,310 62,080 61,210 61,220 61,460 62,400 63,910 64,850 64,930 5.9
Texas.......................... 325,890 336,640 344,000 340,310 345,840 349,080 355,970 360,340 372,450 375,720 24.7
Utah ........................... 36,970 37,770 38,360 39,050 40,210 40,750 41,040 42,180 43,400 43,420 30.8
Vermont ..................... 6,300 6,020 5,990 5,900 5,850 5,910 6,040 5,810 5,970 5,850 -9.8
Virginia....................... 85,030 86,650 86,570 86,180 86,010 87,720 87,890 89,570 92,150 91,550 9.9
Washington ................ 67,540 68,000 67,980 66,730 67,550 68,060 68,670 69,930 72,530 73,190 10.8
West Virginia.............. 17,400 17,470 16,940 16,870 16,420 16,590 16,410 16,270 16,720 16,540 -7.7
Wisconsin .................. 61,180 62,020 61,350 60,470 60,950 61,610 61,240 61,630 63,200 62,710 2.1
Wyoming .................... 5,700 5,730 5,750 5,750 6,070 6,030 6,300 6,480 6,670 6,690 21.9
Jurisdiction
Bureau of Indian
Education............. — — — — — — — — — — —
DoD, overseas............ — — — — — — — — — — —
DoD, domestic............ — — — — — — — — — — —
Other jurisdictions
American Samoa ... — — — — — — — — — — —
Guam ..................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Northern Marianas . — — — — — — — — — — —
Puerto Rico ............ — — — — — — — — — — —
U.S. Virgin Islands.. — — — — — — — — — — —

—Not available. Defense. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not
1
U.S. total includes estimates for nonreporting states. sum to totals because of rounding.
2
Estimated high school graduates from NCES 2011-312, Public School Graduates and Drop- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
outs from the Common Core of Data: School Year 2008–09. Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,”
3Beginning in 1989–90, graduates from adult programs are excluded. 1981–82 through 2005–06; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06 through
4Includes 1,161 graduates in 2007–08 and 1,169 graduates in 2008–09 from private high
2012–13; Public School Graduates and Dropouts From the Common Core of Data, 2007–08
schools that received a majority of their funding from public sources. and 2008–09; and State High School Graduates Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–
5Projected data from NCES 91-490, Projections of Education Statistics to 2002. 26. (This table was prepared January 2016.)
NOTE: Data include regular diploma recipients, but exclude students receiving a certificate of
attendance and persons receiving high school equivalency certificates. DoD = Department of

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 53

Table 11. Public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: 1998–99 through 2025–26
Number of high school graduates Percentage distribution of graduates
American American
Asian/ Indian/ Asian/ Indian/
Pacific Alaska Two or Pacific Alaska Two or
Year Total White Black Hispanic Islander Native more races Total White Black Hispanic Islander Native more races
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1998–99............................. 2,485,630 1,749,561 325,708 270,836 115,216 24,309 — 100.0 70.4 13.1 10.9 4.6 1.0 †
1999–2000......................... 2,553,844 1,778,370 338,116 289,139 122,344 25,875 — 100.0 69.6 13.2 11.3 4.8 1.0 †
2000–01............................. 2,569,200 1,775,036 339,578 301,740 126,465 26,381 — 100.0 69.1 13.2 11.7 4.9 1.0 †
2001–02............................. 2,621,534 1,796,110 348,969 317,197 132,182 27,076 — 100.0 68.5 13.3 12.1 5.0 1.0 †
2002–03............................. 2,719,947 1,856,454 359,920 340,182 135,588 27,803 — 100.0 68.3 13.2 12.5 5.0 1.0 †
2003–04............................. 2,753,438 1,829,177 383,443 374,492 137,496 28,830 — 100.0 66.4 13.9 13.6 5.0 1.0 †
2004–05............................. 2,799,250 1,855,198 385,987 383,714 143,729 30,622 — 100.0 66.3 13.8 13.7 5.1 1.1 †
2005–06............................. 2,815,544 1,838,765 399,406 396,820 150,925 29,628 — 100.0 65.3 14.2 14.1 5.4 1.1 †
2006–07............................. 2,893,045 1,868,056 418,113 421,036 154,837 31,003 — 100.0 64.6 14.5 14.6 5.4 1.1 †
2007–08............................. 3,001,337 1,898,367 429,840 448,887 159,410 32,036 32,797 1 100.0 63.3 14.3 15.0 5.3 1.1 1.1 1
2008–09............................. 3,039,015 1,883,382 451,384 481,698 163,575 32,213 26,763 1 100.0 62.0 14.9 15.9 5.4 1.1 0.9 1
2009–10............................. 3,128,022 1,871,980 472,261 545,518 167,840 34,131 36,292 1 100.0 59.8 15.1 17.4 5.4 1.1 1.2 1
2010–11............................. 3,144,100 1,835,332 471,461 583,907 168,875 32,768 51,748 100.0 58.4 15.0 18.6 5.4 1.0 1.6
2011–12............................. 3,149,185 1,807,528 467,932 608,726 173,835 32,450 58,703 100.0 57.4 14.9 19.3 5.5 1.0 1.9
2012–13............................. 3,169,257 1,791,147 461,919 640,413 179,101 31,100 65,569 100.0 56.5 14.6 20.2 5.7 1.0 2.1
2013–142 ........................... 3,168,650 1,771,690 453,800 657,520 183,210 30,230 72,190 100.0 55.9 14.3 20.8 5.8 1.0 2.3
2014–152 ........................... 3,166,260 1,754,090 457,250 673,030 186,540 29,800 65,560 100.0 55.4 14.4 21.3 5.9 0.9 2.1
2015–162 ........................... 3,192,220 1,754,840 462,620 690,090 186,490 30,370 67,810 100.0 55.0 14.5 21.6 5.8 1.0 2.1
2016–172 ........................... 3,195,630 1,749,280 461,500 696,570 188,240 30,040 70,000 100.0 54.7 14.4 21.8 5.9 0.9 2.2
2017–182 ........................... 3,242,620 1,743,650 467,080 729,510 201,350 29,370 71,650 100.0 53.8 14.4 22.5 6.2 0.9 2.2
2018–192 ........................... 3,242,630 1,724,920 461,930 752,130 201,860 28,560 73,230 100.0 53.2 14.2 23.2 6.2 0.9 2.3
2019–202 ........................... 3,208,110 1,684,190 450,920 765,430 204,560 27,810 75,200 100.0 52.5 14.1 23.9 6.4 0.9 2.3
2020–212 ........................... 3,233,840 1,681,980 443,170 791,050 213,430 26,900 77,310 100.0 52.0 13.7 24.5 6.6 0.8 2.4
2021–222 ........................... 3,248,980 1,668,640 440,250 817,460 217,020 26,410 79,190 100.0 51.4 13.6 25.2 6.7 0.8 2.4
2022–232 ........................... 3,272,620 1,648,490 446,110 853,780 216,980 25,980 81,290 100.0 50.4 13.6 26.1 6.6 0.8 2.5
2023–242 ........................... 3,326,230 1,645,150 457,510 896,570 217,630 25,860 83,510 100.0 49.5 13.8 27.0 6.5 0.8 2.5
2024–252 ........................... 3,378,810 1,651,690 471,750 922,660 221,420 25,500 85,790 100.0 48.9 14.0 27.3 6.6 0.8 2.5
2025–262 ........................... 3,371,680 1,635,040 473,570 920,630 228,750 25,420 88,260 100.0 48.5 14.0 27.3 6.8 0.8 2.6

—Not available. from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding and
†Not applicable. statistical methods used to prevent the identification of individual students.
1Data on students of Two or more races were not reported by all states; therefore, the data
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
are not comparable to figures for 2010–11 and later years. mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Educa-
2Projected.
tion,” 1999–2000 through 2005–06; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06
NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Prior to 2007–08, data on through 2012–13; and National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection
students of Two or more races were not collected separately. Some data have been revised Model, 1995–96 through 2025–26. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

54 Reference Tables
Table 12. Current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools: 1989–90 through 2025–26
Current expenditures in unadjusted dollars1 Current expenditures in constant 2014–15 dollars2
Per pupil in average
Total current expenditures Per pupil in fall enrollment daily attendance (ADA)
Per pupil in
average daily Annual Annual Annual
Per pupil in attendance percentage percentage percentage
School year Total, in billions fall enrollment (ADA) In billions change Per pupil enrolled change Per pupil in ADA change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1989–90............................. $188.2 $4,643 $4,980 $350.9 3.8 $8,654 2.9 $9,282 2.3
1990–91............................. 202.0 4,902 5,258 357.1 1.8 8,663 0.1 9,292 0.1
1991–92............................. 211.2 5,023 5,421 361.7 1.3 8,602 -0.7 9,283 -0.1
1992–93............................. 220.9 5,160 5,584 366.9 1.4 8,568 -0.4 9,272 -0.1
1993–94............................. 231.5 5,327 5,767 374.8 2.1 8,623 0.6 9,336 0.7
1994–95............................. 243.9 5,529 5,989 383.8 2.4 8,700 0.9 9,424 0.9
1995–96............................. 255.1 5,689 6,147 390.8 1.8 8,715 0.2 9,416 -0.1
1996–97............................. 270.2 5,923 6,393 402.4 3.0 8,822 1.2 9,521 1.1
1997–98............................. 285.5 6,189 6,676 417.8 3.8 9,057 2.7 9,768 2.6
1998–99............................. 302.9 6,508 7,013 435.7 4.3 9,361 3.4 10,088 3.3
1999–2000......................... 323.9 6,912 7,394 452.8 3.9 9,664 3.2 10,337 2.5
2000–01............................. 348.4 7,380 7,904 470.9 4.0 9,976 3.2 10,684 3.4
2001–02............................. 368.4 7,727 8,259 489.3 3.9 10,264 2.9 10,969 2.7
2002–03............................. 387.6 8,044 8,610 503.7 3.0 10,455 1.9 11,190 2.0
2003–04............................. 403.4 8,310 8,900 513.0 1.8 10,569 1.1 11,319 1.2
2004–05............................. 425.0 8,711 9,316 524.8 2.3 10,755 1.8 11,502 1.6
2005–06............................. 449.1 9,145 9,778 534.2 1.8 10,877 1.1 11,630 1.1
2006–07............................. 476.8 9,679 10,336 552.8 3.5 11,222 3.2 11,983 3.0
2007–08............................. 506.9 10,298 10,982 566.7 2.5 11,513 2.6 12,278 2.5
2008–09............................. 518.9 10,540 11,239 572.2 1.0 11,621 0.9 12,391 0.9
2009–10............................. 524.7 10,636 11,427 573.0 0.1 11,615 -0.1 12,478 0.7
2010–11............................. 527.3 10,663 11,433 564.5 -1.5 11,414 -1.7 12,240 -1.9
2011–12............................. 527.2 10,648 11,362 548.3 -2.9 11,074 -3.0 11,817 -3.5
2012–13............................. 535.7 10,763 11,503 548.0 -0.1 11,011 -0.6 11,768 -0.4
2013–143 ........................... 530.0 10,590 11,330 533.9 -2.6 10,667 -3.1 11,410 -3.0
2014–153 ........................... 544.9 10,870 11,630 544.9 2.1 10,870 1.9 11,630 1.9
2015–163 ........................... 560.5 11,150 11,930 557.4 2.3 11,090 2.0 11,860 2.0
2016–173 ........................... 584.4 11,600 12,410 567.1 1.7 11,260 1.5 12,040 1.5
2017–183 ........................... 611.9 12,120 12,970 578.8 2.1 11,470 1.9 12,270 1.9
2018–193 ........................... 637.8 12,620 13,500 589.6 1.9 11,670 1.8 12,480 1.8
2019–203 ........................... 663.6 13,110 14,020 599.0 1.6 11,830 1.4 12,660 1.4
2020–213 ........................... 690.7 13,600 14,550 608.3 1.5 11,980 1.2 12,820 1.2
2021–223 ........................... 718.5 14,110 15,090 616.3 1.3 12,100 1.0 12,950 1.0
2022–233 ........................... 747.0 14,620 15,640 623.8 1.2 12,210 0.9 13,060 0.9
2023–243 ........................... 775.5 15,140 16,190 630.9 1.1 12,320 0.9 13,180 0.9
2024–253 ........................... 803.2 15,640 16,740 637.8 1.1 12,420 0.9 13,290 0.9
2025–263 ........................... 822.8 16,000 17,120 642.2 0.7 12,490 0.5 13,360 0.5

1Unadjusted (or “current”) dollars have not been adjusted to compensate for inflation. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
2Constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index, prepared by the Bureau of Labor mon Core of Data (CCD), “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 1989–90 through
Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, adjusted to a school-year basis. 2012–13; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through
3Projected. 2025; and Public Elementary and Secondary Education Current Expenditure Projection
NOTE: Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services, and Model, 1973–74 through 2025–26. (This table was prepared April 2016.)
enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 55

Table 13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution:
Selected years, 1947 through 2025
Attendance status Sex of student Control of institution
Private
Total Percent Percent
Year enrollment Full-time Part-time part-time Male Female female Public Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
19471 ............................... 2,338,226 — — — 1,659,249 678,977 29.0 1,152,377 1,185,849 — —
19481 ............................... 2,403,396 — — — 1,709,367 694,029 28.9 1,185,588 1,217,808 — —
19491 ............................... 2,444,900 — — — 1,721,572 723,328 29.6 1,207,151 1,237,749 — —
19501 ............................... 2,281,298 — — — 1,560,392 720,906 31.6 1,139,699 1,141,599 — —
19511 ............................... 2,101,962 — — — 1,390,740 711,222 33.8 1,037,938 1,064,024 — —
19521 ............................... 2,134,242 — — — 1,380,357 753,885 35.3 1,101,240 1,033,002 — —
19531 ............................... 2,231,054 — — — 1,422,598 808,456 36.2 1,185,876 1,045,178 — —
19541 ............................... 2,446,693 — — — 1,563,382 883,311 36.1 1,353,531 1,093,162 — —
19551 ............................... 2,653,034 — — — 1,733,184 919,850 34.7 1,476,282 1,176,752 — —
19561 ............................... 2,918,212 — — — 1,911,458 1,006,754 34.5 1,656,402 1,261,810 — —
1957................................. 3,323,783 — — — 2,170,765 1,153,018 34.7 1,972,673 1,351,110 — —
1959................................. 3,639,847 2,421,016 1,218,831 2 33.5 2,332,617 1,307,230 35.9 2,180,982 1,458,865 — —
1961................................. 4,145,065 2,785,133 1,359,932 2 32.8 2,585,821 1,559,244 37.6 2,561,447 1,583,618 — —
1963................................. 4,779,609 3,183,833 1,595,776 2 33.4 2,961,540 1,818,069 38.0 3,081,279 1,698,330 — —
1964................................. 5,280,020 3,573,238 1,706,782 2 32.3 3,248,713 2,031,307 38.5 3,467,708 1,812,312 — —
1965................................. 5,920,864 4,095,728 1,825,136 2 30.8 3,630,020 2,290,844 38.7 3,969,596 1,951,268 — —
1966................................. 6,389,872 4,438,606 1,951,266 2 30.5 3,856,216 2,533,656 39.7 4,348,917 2,040,955 — —
1967................................. 6,911,748 4,793,128 2,118,620 2 30.7 4,132,800 2,778,948 40.2 4,816,028 2,095,720 2,074,041 21,679
1968................................. 7,513,091 5,210,155 2,302,936 30.7 4,477,649 3,035,442 40.4 5,430,652 2,082,439 2,061,211 21,228
1969................................. 8,004,660 5,498,883 2,505,777 31.3 4,746,201 3,258,459 40.7 5,896,868 2,107,792 2,087,653 20,139
1970................................. 8,580,887 5,816,290 2,764,597 32.2 5,043,642 3,537,245 41.2 6,428,134 2,152,753 2,134,420 18,333
1971................................. 8,948,644 6,077,232 2,871,412 32.1 5,207,004 3,741,640 41.8 6,804,309 2,144,335 2,121,913 22,422
1972................................. 9,214,860 6,072,389 3,142,471 34.1 5,238,757 3,976,103 43.1 7,070,635 2,144,225 2,123,245 20,980
1973................................. 9,602,123 6,189,493 3,412,630 35.5 5,371,052 4,231,071 44.1 7,419,516 2,182,607 2,148,784 33,823
1974................................. 10,223,729 6,370,273 3,853,456 37.7 5,622,429 4,601,300 45.0 7,988,500 2,235,229 2,200,963 34,266
1975................................. 11,184,859 6,841,334 4,343,525 38.8 6,148,997 5,035,862 45.0 8,834,508 2,350,351 2,311,448 38,903
1976................................. 11,012,137 6,717,058 4,295,079 39.0 5,810,828 5,201,309 47.2 8,653,477 2,358,660 2,314,298 44,362
1977................................. 11,285,787 6,792,925 4,492,862 39.8 5,789,016 5,496,771 48.7 8,846,993 2,438,794 2,386,652 52,142
1978................................. 11,260,092 6,667,657 4,592,435 40.8 5,640,998 5,619,094 49.9 8,785,893 2,474,199 2,408,331 65,868
1979................................. 11,569,899 6,794,039 4,775,860 41.3 5,682,877 5,887,022 50.9 9,036,822 2,533,077 2,461,773 71,304
1980................................. 12,096,895 7,097,958 4,998,937 41.3 5,874,374 6,222,521 51.4 9,457,394 2,639,501 2,527,787 111,714 3
1981................................. 12,371,672 7,181,250 5,190,422 42.0 5,975,056 6,396,616 51.7 9,647,032 2,724,640 2,572,405 152,235 3
1982................................. 12,425,780 7,220,618 5,205,162 41.9 6,031,384 6,394,396 51.5 9,696,087 2,729,693 2,552,739 176,954 3
1983................................. 12,464,661 7,261,050 5,203,611 41.7 6,023,725 6,440,936 51.7 9,682,734 2,781,927 2,589,187 192,740
1984................................. 12,241,940 7,098,388 5,143,552 42.0 5,863,574 6,378,366 52.1 9,477,370 2,764,570 2,574,419 190,151
1985................................. 12,247,055 7,075,221 5,171,834 42.2 5,818,450 6,428,605 52.5 9,479,273 2,767,782 2,571,791 195,991
1986................................. 12,503,511 7,119,550 5,383,961 43.1 5,884,515 6,618,996 52.9 9,713,893 2,789,618 2,572,479 217,139 4
1987................................. 12,766,642 7,231,085 5,535,557 43.4 5,932,056 6,834,586 53.5 9,973,254 2,793,388 2,602,350 191,038 4
1988................................. 13,055,337 7,436,768 5,618,569 43.0 6,001,896 7,053,441 54.0 10,161,388 2,893,949 2,673,567 220,382
1989................................. 13,538,560 7,660,950 5,877,610 43.4 6,190,015 7,348,545 54.3 10,577,963 2,960,597 2,731,174 229,423
1990................................. 13,818,637 7,820,985 5,997,652 43.4 6,283,909 7,534,728 54.5 10,844,717 2,973,920 2,760,227 213,693
1991................................. 14,358,953 8,115,329 6,243,624 43.5 6,501,844 7,857,109 54.7 11,309,563 3,049,390 2,819,041 230,349
1992................................. 14,487,359 8,162,118 6,325,241 43.7 6,523,989 7,963,370 55.0 11,384,567 3,102,792 2,872,523 230,269
1993................................. 14,304,803 8,127,618 6,177,185 43.2 6,427,450 7,877,353 55.1 11,189,088 3,115,715 2,888,897 226,818
1994................................. 14,278,790 8,137,776 6,141,014 43.0 6,371,898 7,906,892 55.4 11,133,680 3,145,110 2,910,107 235,003
1995................................. 14,261,781 8,128,802 6,132,979 43.0 6,342,539 7,919,242 55.5 11,092,374 3,169,407 2,929,044 240,363
1996................................. 14,367,520 8,302,953 6,064,567 42.2 6,352,825 8,014,695 55.8 11,120,499 3,247,021 2,942,556 304,465
1997................................. 14,502,334 8,438,062 6,064,272 41.8 6,396,028 8,106,306 55.9 11,196,119 3,306,215 2,977,614 328,601
1998................................. 14,506,967 8,563,338 5,943,629 41.0 6,369,265 8,137,702 56.1 11,137,769 3,369,198 3,004,925 364,273
1999................................. 14,849,691 8,803,139 6,046,552 40.7 6,515,164 8,334,527 56.1 11,375,739 3,473,952 3,055,029 418,923
2000................................. 15,312,289 9,009,600 6,302,689 41.2 6,721,769 8,590,520 56.1 11,752,786 3,559,503 3,109,419 450,084
2001................................. 15,927,987 9,447,502 6,480,485 40.7 6,960,815 8,967,172 56.3 12,233,156 3,694,831 3,167,330 527,501
2002................................. 16,611,711 9,946,359 6,665,352 40.1 7,202,116 9,409,595 56.6 12,751,993 3,859,718 3,265,476 594,242
2003................................. 16,911,481 10,326,133 6,585,348 38.9 7,260,264 9,651,217 57.1 12,858,698 4,052,783 3,341,048 711,735
2004................................. 17,272,044 10,610,177 6,661,867 38.6 7,387,262 9,884,782 57.2 12,980,112 4,291,932 3,411,685 880,247
2005................................. 17,487,475 10,797,011 6,690,464 38.3 7,455,925 10,031,550 57.4 13,021,834 4,465,641 3,454,692 1,010,949
2006................................. 17,758,870 10,957,305 6,801,565 38.3 7,574,815 10,184,055 57.3 13,180,133 4,578,737 3,512,866 1,065,871
2007................................. 18,248,128 11,269,892 6,978,236 38.2 7,815,914 10,432,214 57.2 13,490,780 4,757,348 3,571,150 1,186,198
2008................................. 19,102,814 11,747,743 7,355,071 38.5 8,188,895 10,913,919 57.1 13,972,153 5,130,661 3,661,519 1,469,142
2009................................. 20,313,594 12,605,355 7,708,239 37.9 8,732,953 11,580,641 57.0 14,810,768 5,502,826 3,767,672 1,735,154
2010................................. 21,019,438 13,087,182 7,932,256 37.7 9,045,759 11,973,679 57.0 15,142,171 5,877,267 3,854,482 2,022,785
2011................................. 21,010,590 13,002,531 8,008,059 38.1 9,034,256 11,976,334 57.0 15,116,303 5,894,287 3,926,819 1,967,468
2012................................. 20,644,478 12,734,404 7,910,074 38.3 8,919,006 11,725,472 56.8 14,884,667 5,759,811 3,951,388 1,808,423
2013................................. 20,375,789 12,597,112 7,778,677 38.2 8,860,786 11,515,003 56.5 14,745,558 5,630,231 3,974,004 1,656,227
2014................................. 20,207,369 12,453,975 7,753,394 38.2 8,797,061 11,410,308 57.0 14,655,015 5,552,354 3,996,089 1,556,265

See notes at end of table.

56 Reference Tables
Table 13. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control of institution:
Selected years, 1947 through 2025—Continued
Attendance status Sex of student Control of institution
Private
Total Percent Percent
Year enrollment Full-time Part-time part-time Male Female female Public Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

20155 ............................... 20,264,000 12,484,000 7,779,000 38.3 8,760,000 11,503,000 57.3 14,789,000 5,475,000 — —
20165 ............................... 20,516,000 12,651,000 7,865,000 38.5 8,808,000 11,708,000 57.6 14,964,000 5,552,000 — —
20175 ............................... 20,972,000 12,942,000 8,030,000 38.6 8,944,000 12,028,000 57.9 15,287,000 5,686,000 — —
20185 ............................... 21,410,000 13,207,000 8,203,000 38.7 9,118,000 12,292,000 58.1 15,604,000 5,807,000 — —
20195 ............................... 21,753,000 13,403,000 8,349,000 38.8 9,260,000 12,493,000 58.2 15,852,000 5,900,000 — —
20205 ............................... 22,013,000 13,550,000 8,463,000 38.9 9,364,000 12,648,000 58.4 16,038,000 5,975,000 — —
20215 ............................... 22,323,000 13,726,000 8,597,000 39.0 9,496,000 12,827,000 58.5 16,261,000 6,062,000 — —
20225 ............................... 22,613,000 13,894,000 8,720,000 39.0 9,625,000 12,989,000 58.7 16,471,000 6,143,000 — —
20235 ............................... 22,896,000 14,072,000 8,824,000 39.1 9,747,000 13,149,000 58.8 16,673,000 6,223,000 — —
20245 ............................... 23,149,000 14,220,000 8,929,000 39.1 9,859,000 13,290,000 58.8 16,858,000 6,291,000 — —
20255 ............................... 23,290,000 14,278,000 9,012,000 39.1 9,937,000 13,353,000 58.8 16,967,000 6,323,000 — —

—Not available. pate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to
1Degree-credit enrollment only. the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a
2Includes part-time resident students and all extension students (students attending courses at few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from
sites separate from the primary reporting campus). In later years, part-time student enrollment previously published figures.
was collected as a distinct category. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Biennial
3Large increases are due to the addition of schools accredited by the Accrediting Commission Survey of Education in the United States; Opening Fall Enrollment in Higher Education, 1947
of Career Schools and Colleges of Technology. through 1966; Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Col-
4Because of imputation techniques, data are not consistent with figures for other years. leges and Universities” surveys, 1967 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data
5Projected. System (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:86–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through
NOTE: Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for degree- Spring 2015, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Pro-
granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and partici- jection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared February 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 57

Table 14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution, attendance status, and sex of
student: Selected years, 1970 through 2025
Level and control of Actual
institution, attendance
status, and sex of student 1970 1975 19801 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Total........................... 8,580,887 11,184,859 12,096,895 12,247,055 13,818,637 14,261,781 15,312,289 17,487,475 20,313,594 21,019,438 21,010,590 20,644,478 20,375,789 20,207,369
Full-time............................. 5,816,290 6,841,334 7,097,958 7,075,221 7,820,985 8,128,802 9,009,600 10,797,011 12,605,355 13,087,182 13,002,531 12,734,404 12,597,112 12,453,975
Males ............................. 3,504,095 3,926,753 3,689,244 3,607,720 3,807,752 3,807,392 4,111,093 4,803,388 5,632,097 5,838,383 5,792,818 5,708,406 5,682,166 5,619,391
Females ......................... 2,312,195 2,914,581 3,408,714 3,467,501 4,013,233 4,321,410 4,898,507 5,993,623 6,973,258 7,248,799 7,209,713 7,025,998 6,914,946 6,834,584
Part-time ............................ 2,764,597 4,343,525 4,998,937 5,171,834 5,997,652 6,132,979 6,302,689 6,690,464 7,708,239 7,932,256 8,008,059 7,910,074 7,778,677 7,753,394
Males ............................. 1,539,547 2,222,244 2,185,130 2,210,730 2,476,157 2,535,147 2,610,676 2,652,537 3,100,856 3,207,376 3,241,438 3,210,600 3,178,620 3,177,670
Females ......................... 1,225,050 2,121,281 2,813,807 2,961,104 3,521,495 3,597,832 3,692,013 4,037,927 4,607,383 4,724,880 4,766,621 4,699,474 4,600,057 4,575,724
4-year......................... 6,261,502 7,214,740 7,570,608 7,715,978 8,578,554 8,769,252 9,363,858 10,999,420 12,791,013 13,335,841 13,499,440 13,476,638 13,407,050 13,492,884
Full-time............................. 4,587,379 5,080,256 5,344,163 5,384,614 5,937,023 6,151,755 6,792,551 8,150,209 9,361,404 9,721,803 9,832,324 9,792,607 9,764,196 9,793,247
Males ............................. 2,732,796 2,891,192 2,809,528 2,781,412 2,926,360 2,929,177 3,115,252 3,649,622 4,185,726 4,355,153 4,401,635 4,402,749 4,403,914 4,419,286
Females ......................... 1,854,583 2,189,064 2,534,635 2,603,202 3,010,663 3,222,578 3,677,299 4,500,587 5,175,678 5,366,650 5,430,689 5,389,858 5,360,282 5,373,961
Part-time ............................ 1,674,123 2,134,484 2,226,445 2,331,364 2,641,531 2,617,497 2,571,307 2,849,211 3,429,609 3,614,038 3,667,116 3,684,031 3,642,854 3,699,637
Males ............................. 936,189 1,092,461 1,017,813 1,034,804 1,124,780 1,084,753 1,047,917 1,125,935 1,349,890 1,424,721 1,456,818 1,470,164 1,458,956 1,483,996
Females ......................... 737,934 1,042,023 1,208,632 1,296,560 1,516,751 1,532,744 1,523,390 1,723,276 2,079,719 2,189,317 2,210,298 2,213,867 2,183,898 2,215,641
Public 4-year...................... 4,232,722 4,998,142 5,128,612 5,209,540 5,848,242 5,814,545 6,055,398 6,837,605 7,709,198 7,924,108 8,048,145 8,092,602 8,120,417 8,257,250
Full-time ......................... 3,086,491 3,469,821 3,592,193 3,623,341 4,033,654 4,084,711 4,371,218 5,021,745 5,649,722 5,811,214 5,890,689 5,909,868 5,934,852 6,012,706
Males ......................... 1,813,584 1,947,823 1,873,397 1,863,689 1,982,369 1,951,140 2,008,618 2,295,456 2,626,174 2,707,307 2,743,773 2,756,885 2,772,506 2,807,232
Females ..................... 1,272,907 1,521,998 1,718,796 1,759,652 2,051,285 2,133,571 2,362,600 2,726,289 3,023,548 3,103,907 3,146,916 3,152,983 3,162,346 3,205,474
Part-time ........................ 1,146,231 1,528,321 1,536,419 1,586,199 1,814,588 1,729,834 1,684,180 1,815,860 2,059,476 2,112,894 2,157,456 2,182,734 2,185,565 2,244,544
Males ......................... 609,422 760,469 685,051 693,115 764,248 720,402 683,100 724,375 833,155 860,968 885,045 901,212 911,040 940,743
Females ..................... 536,809 767,852 851,368 893,084 1,050,340 1,009,432 1,001,080 1,091,485 1,226,321 1,251,926 1,272,411 1,281,522 1,274,525 1,303,801
Private 4-year .................... 2,028,780 2,216,598 2,441,996 2,506,438 2,730,312 2,954,707 3,308,460 4,161,815 5,081,815 5,411,733 5,451,295 5,384,036 5,286,633 5,235,634
Full-time ......................... 1,500,888 1,610,435 1,751,970 1,761,273 1,903,369 2,067,044 2,421,333 3,128,464 3,711,682 3,910,589 3,941,635 3,882,739 3,829,344 3,780,541
Males ......................... 919,212 943,369 936,131 917,723 943,991 978,037 1,106,634 1,354,166 1,559,552 1,647,846 1,657,862 1,645,864 1,631,408 1,612,054
Females ..................... 581,676 667,066 815,839 843,550 959,378 1,089,007 1,314,699 1,774,298 2,152,130 2,262,743 2,283,773 2,236,875 2,197,936 2,168,487
Part-time ........................ 527,892 606,163 690,026 745,165 826,943 887,663 887,127 1,033,351 1,370,133 1,501,144 1,509,660 1,501,297 1,457,289 1,455,093
Males ......................... 326,767 331,992 332,762 341,689 360,532 364,351 364,817 401,560 516,735 563,753 571,773 568,952 547,916 543,253
Females ..................... 201,125 274,171 357,264 403,476 466,411 523,312 522,310 631,791 853,398 937,391 937,887 932,345 909,373 911,840
Nonprofit 4-year ............. 2,021,121 2,198,451 2,413,693 2,463,000 2,671,069 2,853,890 3,050,575 3,411,170 3,732,900 3,821,799 3,886,964 3,913,690 3,941,806 3,965,724
Full-time ..................... 1,494,625 1,596,074 1,733,014 1,727,707 1,859,124 1,989,457 2,226,028 2,534,793 2,787,321 2,864,640 2,905,674 2,927,108 2,961,998 2,980,433
Males...................... 914,020 930,842 921,253 894,080 915,100 931,956 996,113 1,109,075 1,223,333 1,259,638 1,275,590 1,288,669 1,303,567 1,313,033
Females.................. 580,605 665,232 811,761 833,627 944,024 1,057,501 1,229,915 1,425,718 1,563,988 1,605,002 1,630,084 1,638,439 1,658,431 1,667,400
Part-time .................... 526,496 602,377 680,679 735,293 811,945 864,433 824,547 876,377 945,579 957,159 981,290 986,582 979,808 985,291
Males...................... 325,693 329,662 327,986 336,168 352,106 351,874 332,814 339,572 363,789 366,735 375,713 377,521 377,480 379,428
Females.................. 200,803 272,715 352,693 399,125 459,839 512,559 491,733 536,805 581,790 590,424 605,577 609,061 602,328 605,863
For-profit 4-year ............. 7,659 18,147 28,303 43,438 59,243 100,817 257,885 750,645 1,348,915 1,589,934 1,564,331 1,470,346 1,344,827 1,269,910
2-year......................... 2,319,385 3,970,119 4,526,287 4,531,077 5,240,083 5,492,529 5,948,431 6,488,055 7,522,581 7,683,597 7,511,150 7,167,840 6,968,739 6,714,485
Full-time............................. 1,228,911 1,761,078 1,753,795 1,690,607 1,883,962 1,977,047 2,217,049 2,646,802 3,243,951 3,365,379 3,170,207 2,941,797 2,832,916 2,660,728
Males ............................. 771,299 1,035,561 879,716 826,308 881,392 878,215 995,841 1,153,766 1,446,371 1,483,230 1,391,183 1,305,657 1,278,252 1,200,105
Females ......................... 457,612 725,517 874,079 864,299 1,002,570 1,098,832 1,221,208 1,493,036 1,797,580 1,882,149 1,779,024 1,636,140 1,554,664 1,460,623
Part-time ............................ 1,090,474 2,209,041 2,772,492 2,840,470 3,356,121 3,515,482 3,731,382 3,841,253 4,278,630 4,318,218 4,340,943 4,226,043 4,135,823 4,053,757
Males ............................. 603,358 1,129,783 1,167,317 1,175,926 1,351,377 1,450,394 1,562,759 1,526,602 1,750,966 1,782,655 1,784,620 1,740,436 1,719,664 1,693,674
Females ......................... 487,116 1,079,258 1,605,175 1,664,544 2,004,744 2,065,088 2,168,623 2,314,651 2,527,664 2,535,563 2,556,323 2,485,607 2,416,159 2,360,083
Public 2-year...................... 2,195,412 3,836,366 4,328,782 4,269,733 4,996,475 5,277,829 5,697,388 6,184,229 7,101,569 7,218,063 7,068,158 6,792,065 6,625,141 6,397,765
Full-time ......................... 1,129,165 1,662,621 1,595,493 1,496,905 1,716,843 1,840,590 2,000,008 2,387,016 2,875,291 2,950,024 2,781,419 2,615,331 2,529,957 2,385,013
Males ......................... 720,440 988,701 811,871 742,673 810,664 818,605 891,282 1,055,029 1,315,200 1,340,820 1,260,759 1,197,301 1,176,699 1,107,397
Females ..................... 408,725 673,920 783,622 754,232 906,179 1,021,985 1,108,726 1,331,987 1,560,091 1,609,204 1,520,660 1,418,030 1,353,258 1,277,616
Part-time ........................ 1,066,247 2,173,745 2,733,289 2,772,828 3,279,632 3,437,239 3,697,380 3,797,213 4,226,278 4,268,039 4,286,739 4,176,734 4,095,184 4,012,752
Males ......................... 589,439 1,107,680 1,152,268 1,138,011 1,317,730 1,417,488 1,549,407 1,514,363 1,735,300 1,769,737 1,770,197 1,727,555 1,708,594 1,683,562
Females ..................... 476,808 1,066,065 1,581,021 1,634,817 1,961,902 2,019,751 2,147,973 2,282,850 2,490,978 2,498,302 2,516,542 2,449,179 2,386,590 2,329,190
Private 2-year .................... 123,973 133,753 197,505 261,344 243,608 214,700 251,043 303,826 421,012 465,534 442,992 375,775 343,598 316,720
Full-time ......................... 99,746 98,457 158,302 193,702 167,119 136,457 217,041 259,786 368,660 415,355 388,788 326,466 302,959 275,715
Males ......................... 50,859 46,860 67,845 83,635 70,728 59,610 104,559 98,737 131,171 142,410 130,424 108,356 101,553 92,708
Females ..................... 48,887 51,597 90,457 110,067 96,391 76,847 112,482 161,049 237,489 272,945 258,364 218,110 201,406 183,007
Part-time ........................ 24,227 35,296 39,203 67,642 76,489 78,243 34,002 44,040 52,352 50,179 54,204 49,309 40,639 41,005
Males ......................... 13,919 22,103 15,049 37,915 33,647 32,906 13,352 12,239 15,666 12,918 14,423 12,881 11,070 10,112
Females ..................... 10,308 13,193 24,154 29,727 42,842 45,337 20,650 31,801 36,686 37,261 39,781 36,428 29,569 30,893
Nonprofit 2-year ............. 113,299 112,997 114,094 108,791 89,158 75,154 58,844 43,522 34,772 32,683 39,855 37,698 32,198 30,365
Full-time ..................... 91,514 82,158 83,009 76,547 62,003 54,033 46,670 28,939 23,488 23,127 30,584 29,384 24,055 22,778
Males...................... 46,030 40,548 34,968 30,878 25,946 23,265 21,950 12,086 9,578 9,944 11,298 10,463 9,470 9,066
Females.................. 45,484 41,610 48,041 45,669 36,057 30,768 24,720 16,853 13,910 13,183 19,286 18,921 14,585 13,712
Part-time .................... 21,785 30,839 31,085 32,244 27,155 21,121 12,174 14,583 11,284 9,556 9,271 8,314 8,143 7,587
Males...................... 12,097 18,929 11,445 10,786 7,970 6,080 4,499 3,566 2,721 2,585 2,540 2,467 2,386 2,198
Females.................. 9,688 11,910 19,640 21,458 19,185 15,041 7,675 11,017 8,563 6,971 6,731 5,847 5,757 5,389
For-profit 2-year ............. 10,674 20,756 83,411 152,553 154,450 139,546 192,199 260,304 386,240 432,851 403,137 338,077 311,400 286,355

See notes at end of table.

58 Reference Tables
Table 14. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level and control of institution, attendance status, and sex of
student: Selected years, 1970 through 2025—Continued
Level and control of Projected
institution, attendance
status, and sex of student 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Total........................... 20,264,000 20,516,000 20,972,000 21,410,000 21,753,000 22,013,000 22,323,000 22,613,000 22,896,000 23,149,000 23,290,000
Full-time............................. 12,484,000 12,651,000 12,942,000 13,207,000 13,403,000 13,550,000 13,726,000 13,894,000 14,072,000 14,220,000 14,278,000
Males ............................. 5,638,000 5,671,000 5,754,000 5,857,000 5,938,000 5,998,000 6,068,000 6,137,000 6,211,000 6,278,000 6,318,000
Females ......................... 6,846,000 6,980,000 7,188,000 7,350,000 7,465,000 7,552,000 7,658,000 7,757,000 7,861,000 7,941,000 7,960,000
Part-time ............................ 7,779,000 7,865,000 8,030,000 8,203,000 8,349,000 8,463,000 8,597,000 8,720,000 8,824,000 8,929,000 9,012,000
Males ............................. 3,122,000 3,137,000 3,190,000 3,261,000 3,322,000 3,367,000 3,428,000 3,488,000 3,536,000 3,581,000 3,619,000
Females ......................... 4,657,000 4,728,000 4,840,000 4,942,000 5,028,000 5,097,000 5,169,000 5,232,000 5,288,000 5,349,000 5,393,000
4-year......................... 13,150,000 13,322,000 13,627,000 13,910,000 14,131,000 14,307,000 14,513,000 14,702,000 14,889,000 15,052,000 15,133,000
Full-time............................. 9,525,000 9,649,000 9,867,000 10,065,000 10,212,000 10,328,000 10,464,000 10,588,000 10,720,000 10,831,000 10,873,000
Males ............................. 4,327,000 4,351,000 4,414,000 4,491,000 4,553,000 4,602,000 4,657,000 4,709,000 4,764,000 4,815,000 4,844,000
Females ......................... 5,197,000 5,298,000 5,453,000 5,574,000 5,659,000 5,726,000 5,807,000 5,879,000 5,956,000 6,016,000 6,029,000
Part-time ............................ 3,625,000 3,673,000 3,759,000 3,845,000 3,919,000 3,979,000 4,049,000 4,114,000 4,169,000 4,221,000 4,260,000
Males ............................. 1,409,000 1,419,000 1,447,000 1,483,000 1,514,000 1,538,000 1,571,000 1,602,000 1,628,000 1,651,000 1,669,000
Females ......................... 2,216,000 2,254,000 2,312,000 2,363,000 2,406,000 2,441,000 2,478,000 2,512,000 2,541,000 2,570,000 2,590,000
Public 4-year...................... 8,026,000 8,126,000 8,306,000 8,477,000 8,610,000 8,715,000 8,839,000 8,952,000 9,065,000 9,164,000 9,215,000
Full-time ......................... 5,839,000 5,911,000 6,040,000 6,160,000 6,249,000 6,319,000 6,401,000 6,475,000 6,554,000 6,623,000 6,650,000
Males ......................... 2,740,000 2,754,000 2,793,000 2,840,000 2,879,000 2,909,000 2,944,000 2,976,000 3,010,000 3,042,000 3,061,000
Females ..................... 3,099,000 3,157,000 3,248,000 3,319,000 3,370,000 3,410,000 3,457,000 3,499,000 3,544,000 3,581,000 3,589,000
Part-time ........................ 2,187,000 2,215,000 2,266,000 2,317,000 2,361,000 2,397,000 2,439,000 2,477,000 2,510,000 2,542,000 2,565,000
Males ......................... 887,000 893,000 910,000 932,000 951,000 966,000 986,000 1,006,000 1,021,000 1,035,000 1,047,000
Females ..................... 1,300,000 1,322,000 1,356,000 1,385,000 1,410,000 1,431,000 1,453,000 1,472,000 1,489,000 1,506,000 1,518,000
Private 4-year .................... 5,124,000 5,196,000 5,321,000 5,433,000 5,521,000 5,591,000 5,674,000 5,750,000 5,824,000 5,888,000 5,918,000
Full-time ......................... 3,686,000 3,738,000 3,827,000 3,905,000 3,963,000 4,009,000 4,064,000 4,113,000 4,166,000 4,209,000 4,224,000
Males ......................... 1,587,000 1,597,000 1,622,000 1,651,000 1,674,000 1,692,000 1,714,000 1,734,000 1,754,000 1,773,000 1,784,000
Females ..................... 2,099,000 2,141,000 2,205,000 2,254,000 2,289,000 2,317,000 2,350,000 2,380,000 2,411,000 2,435,000 2,440,000
Part-time ........................ 1,438,000 1,458,000 1,494,000 1,528,000 1,558,000 1,582,000 1,610,000 1,636,000 1,659,000 1,680,000 1,695,000
Males ......................... 522,000 527,000 537,000 551,000 563,000 572,000 585,000 597,000 607,000 615,000 622,000
Females ..................... 915,000 932,000 956,000 977,000 995,000 1,010,000 1,026,000 1,040,000 1,052,000 1,064,000 1,072,000
Nonprofit 4-year ............. — — — — — — — — — — —
Full-time ..................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Males...................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Females.................. — — — — — — — — — — —
Part-time .................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Males...................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Females.................. — — — — — — — — — — —
For-profit 4-year ............. — — — — — — — — — — —
2-year......................... 7,114,000 7,194,000 7,346,000 7,500,000 7,622,000 7,706,000 7,810,000 7,912,000 8,007,000 8,096,000 8,157,000
Full-time............................. 2,960,000 3,002,000 3,075,000 3,142,000 3,191,000 3,222,000 3,262,000 3,306,000 3,351,000 3,388,000 3,405,000
Males ............................. 1,311,000 1,320,000 1,340,000 1,365,000 1,385,000 1,396,000 1,411,000 1,428,000 1,446,000 1,463,000 1,474,000
Females ......................... 1,649,000 1,682,000 1,735,000 1,777,000 1,806,000 1,826,000 1,851,000 1,878,000 1,905,000 1,925,000 1,931,000
Part-time ............................ 4,154,000 4,192,000 4,271,000 4,358,000 4,430,000 4,484,000 4,548,000 4,606,000 4,655,000 4,708,000 4,752,000
Males ............................. 1,713,000 1,718,000 1,743,000 1,779,000 1,808,000 1,829,000 1,857,000 1,886,000 1,908,000 1,930,000 1,950,000
Females ......................... 2,441,000 2,474,000 2,528,000 2,579,000 2,622,000 2,656,000 2,691,000 2,721,000 2,747,000 2,778,000 2,803,000
Public 2-year...................... 6,763,000 6,838,000 6,981,000 7,127,000 7,243,000 7,323,000 7,422,000 7,519,000 7,608,000 7,693,000 7,752,000
Full-time ......................... 2,652,000 2,689,000 2,754,000 2,814,000 2,858,000 2,885,000 2,921,000 2,960,000 3,001,000 3,034,000 3,049,000
Males ......................... 1,209,000 1,218,000 1,236,000 1,260,000 1,278,000 1,288,000 1,302,000 1,318,000 1,335,000 1,350,000 1,360,000
Females ..................... 1,442,000 1,471,000 1,518,000 1,554,000 1,580,000 1,597,000 1,619,000 1,642,000 1,666,000 1,684,000 1,689,000
Part-time ........................ 4,111,000 4,149,000 4,227,000 4,313,000 4,384,000 4,438,000 4,501,000 4,558,000 4,607,000 4,659,000 4,703,000
Males ......................... 1,702,000 1,707,000 1,732,000 1,767,000 1,797,000 1,817,000 1,846,000 1,874,000 1,896,000 1,918,000 1,937,000
Females ..................... 2,409,000 2,441,000 2,495,000 2,545,000 2,588,000 2,621,000 2,655,000 2,685,000 2,711,000 2,742,000 2,766,000
Private 2-year .................... 351,000 356,000 365,000 373,000 379,000 383,000 388,000 393,000 399,000 403,000 405,000
Full-time ......................... 308,000 313,000 321,000 328,000 333,000 337,000 341,000 346,000 350,000 354,000 356,000
Males ......................... 101,000 102,000 104,000 105,000 107,000 108,000 109,000 110,000 112,000 113,000 114,000
Females ..................... 207,000 211,000 217,000 223,000 226,000 229,000 232,000 235,000 239,000 241,000 242,000
Part-time ........................ 43,000 43,000 44,000 45,000 46,000 47,000 47,000 48,000 48,000 49,000 49,000
Males ......................... 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Females ..................... 32,000 33,000 33,000 34,000 35,000 35,000 36,000 36,000 36,000 37,000 37,000
Nonprofit 2-year ............. — — — — — — — — — — —
Full-time ..................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Males...................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Females.................. — — — — — — — — — — —
Part-time .................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Males...................... — — — — — — — — — — —
Females.................. — — — — — — — — — — —
For-profit 2-year ............. — — — — — — — — — — —

—Not available. and excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have
1Large increase in private 2-year institutions in 1980 is due to the addition of schools accred- been revised from previously published figures.
ited by the Accrediting Commission of Career Schools and Colleges of Technology. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher
NOTE: Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universi-
degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees ties” surveys, 1970 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:90–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring
very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges 2015, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection
Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared April 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 59

Table 15. Total fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex, and age: Selected years, 1970 through 2025
[In thousands]

Attendance status, Projected

sex, and age 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
All students ................. 8,581 12,097 13,819 15,312 17,272 17,487 17,759 18,248 19,103 20,314 21,019 21,011 20,644 20,376 20,207 20,264 20,516 22,013 23,290
14 to 17 years old ................. 263 257 153 131 166 187 184 200 195 215 202 221 242 256 257 251 256 271 287
18 and 19 years old .............. 2,579 2,852 2,777 3,258 3,367 3,444 3,561 3,690 3,813 4,009 4,057 3,956 3,782 3,720 3,694 3,881 3,929 4,137 4,360
20 and 21 years old .............. 1,885 2,395 2,593 3,005 3,516 3,563 3,573 3,570 3,649 3,916 4,103 4,269 4,235 4,183 4,074 4,292 4,279 4,527 4,689
22 to 24 years old ................. 1,469 1,947 2,202 2,600 3,166 3,114 3,185 3,280 3,443 3,571 3,759 3,793 3,951 3,964 3,990 3,962 3,974 4,083 4,283
25 to 29 years old ................. 1,091 1,843 2,083 2,044 2,418 2,469 2,506 2,651 2,840 3,082 3,254 3,272 3,155 3,050 3,016 2,955 3,066 3,372 3,426
30 to 34 years old ................. 527 1,227 1,384 1,333 1,440 1,438 1,472 1,519 1,609 1,735 1,805 1,788 1,684 1,606 1,552 1,471 1,506 1,706 1,877
35 years old and over ........... 767 1,577 2,627 2,942 3,199 3,272 3,277 3,339 3,554 3,785 3,840 3,712 3,597 3,597 3,625 3,453 3,506 3,917 4,367
Males.................................... 5,044 5,874 6,284 6,722 7,387 7,456 7,575 7,816 8,189 8,733 9,046 9,034 8,919 8,861 8,797 8,760 8,808 9,364 9,937
14 to 17 years old ............. 125 106 66 58 62 68 69 88 93 103 94 104 119 125 126 114 116 120 128
18 and 19 years old .......... 1,355 1,368 1,298 1,464 1,475 1,523 1,604 1,669 1,704 1,795 1,820 1,782 1,707 1,661 1,639 1,688 1,704 1,781 1,880
20 and 21 years old .......... 1,064 1,219 1,259 1,411 1,608 1,658 1,628 1,634 1,695 1,866 1,948 1,985 1,960 1,955 1,932 2,034 2,009 2,099 2,158
22 to 24 years old ............. 1,004 1,075 1,129 1,222 1,437 1,410 1,445 1,480 1,555 1,599 1,723 1,769 1,864 1,846 1,803 1,799 1,788 1,811 1,895
25 to 29 years old ............. 796 983 1,024 908 1,039 1,057 1,040 1,148 1,222 1,378 1,410 1,404 1,353 1,356 1,376 1,329 1,373 1,510 1,548
30 to 34 years old ............. 333 564 605 581 619 591 628 638 691 707 731 700 661 634 621 565 576 653 734
35 years old and over........ 366 559 902 1,077 1,147 1,149 1,160 1,159 1,228 1,285 1,320 1,290 1,255 1,283 1,300 1,231 1,242 1,390 1,593
Females ............................... 3,537 6,223 7,535 8,591 9,885 10,032 10,184 10,432 10,914 11,581 11,974 11,976 11,725 11,515 11,410 11,503 11,708 12,648 13,353
14 to 17 years old ............. 137 151 87 73 104 119 115 112 102 113 108 116 123 131 130 137 141 150 159
18 and 19 years old .......... 1,224 1,484 1,479 1,794 1,892 1,920 1,956 2,021 2,109 2,214 2,237 2,173 2,074 2,059 2,055 2,193 2,225 2,356 2,479
20 and 21 years old .......... 821 1,177 1,334 1,593 1,908 1,905 1,945 1,936 1,954 2,050 2,155 2,284 2,276 2,228 2,142 2,258 2,269 2,428 2,532
22 to 24 years old ............. 464 871 1,073 1,378 1,729 1,704 1,740 1,800 1,888 1,972 2,036 2,024 2,087 2,118 2,187 2,163 2,187 2,272 2,388
25 to 29 years old ............. 296 859 1,059 1,136 1,379 1,413 1,466 1,502 1,618 1,704 1,844 1,868 1,802 1,694 1,640 1,625 1,693 1,862 1,878
30 to 34 years old ............. 194 663 779 752 821 847 844 881 918 1,028 1,074 1,088 1,022 972 931 906 930 1,053 1,143
35 years old and over........ 401 1,018 1,725 1,865 2,052 2,123 2,117 2,180 2,326 2,500 2,520 2,422 2,341 2,314 2,325 2,221 2,264 2,528 2,774
Full-time............................... 5,816 7,098 7,821 9,010 10,610 10,797 10,957 11,270 11,748 12,605 13,087 13,003 12,734 12,597 12,454 12,484 12,651 13,550 14,278
14 to 17 years old ............. 246 231 134 121 138 152 148 169 168 179 170 185 207 210 208 182 187 196 205
18 and 19 years old .......... 2,374 2,544 2,471 2,823 2,960 3,026 3,120 3,244 3,359 3,481 3,496 3,351 3,226 3,199 3,198 3,296 3,343 3,530 3,720
20 and 21 years old .......... 1,649 2,007 2,137 2,452 2,926 2,976 2,972 2,985 3,043 3,241 3,364 3,427 3,386 3,327 3,260 3,277 3,276 3,488 3,625
22 to 24 years old ............. 904 1,181 1,405 1,714 2,143 2,122 2,127 2,205 2,347 2,511 2,585 2,580 2,603 2,650 2,620 2,619 2,638 2,716 2,837
25 to 29 years old ............. 426 641 791 886 1,132 1,174 1,225 1,299 1,369 1,506 1,605 1,600 1,555 1,529 1,527 1,532 1,593 1,771 1,809
30 to 34 years old ............. 113 272 383 418 517 547 571 556 571 657 745 763 711 664 616 575 591 681 758
35 years old and over........ 104 221 500 596 795 800 794 812 890 1,030 1,122 1,096 1,047 1,019 1,024 1,003 1,023 1,168 1,324
Males................................ 3,504 3,689 3,808 4,111 4,739 4,803 4,879 5,029 5,234 5,632 5,838 5,793 5,708 5,682 5,619 5,638 5,671 5,998 6,318
14 to 17 years old.......... 121 95 55 51 49 53 52 74 73 77 71 85 102 106 106 98 100 104 111
18 and 19 years old....... 1,261 1,219 1,171 1,252 1,297 1,339 1,404 1,465 1,516 1,570 1,574 1,510 1,461 1,423 1,400 1,392 1,409 1,476 1,560
20 and 21 years old....... 955 1,046 1,035 1,156 1,360 1,398 1,372 1,366 1,407 1,536 1,586 1,586 1,537 1,542 1,523 1,583 1,564 1,639 1,688
22 to 24 years old.......... 686 717 768 834 1,001 982 992 1,043 1,105 1,169 1,215 1,217 1,254 1,270 1,249 1,261 1,253 1,275 1,337
25 to 29 years old.......... 346 391 433 410 498 506 533 578 597 661 715 727 728 734 744 733 761 842 866
30 to 34 years old.......... 77 142 171 186 231 225 235 231 249 279 301 299 278 257 233 215 221 252 285
35 years old and over.... 58 80 174 222 302 300 291 273 287 341 376 369 349 351 363 357 363 410 473
Females ........................... 2,312 3,409 4,013 4,899 5,871 5,994 6,078 6,240 6,513 6,973 7,249 7,210 7,026 6,915 6,835 6,846 6,980 7,552 7,960
14 to 17 years old.......... 125 136 78 70 89 98 95 95 95 102 99 100 105 104 102 84 87 92 94
18 and 19 years old....... 1,113 1,325 1,300 1,571 1,662 1,687 1,716 1,779 1,843 1,911 1,922 1,842 1,765 1,776 1,798 1,904 1,935 2,054 2,160
20 and 21 years old....... 693 961 1,101 1,296 1,566 1,578 1,601 1,619 1,636 1,705 1,778 1,840 1,849 1,785 1,738 1,694 1,712 1,849 1,938
22 to 24 years old.......... 218 464 638 880 1,142 1,140 1,135 1,163 1,242 1,343 1,370 1,364 1,349 1,380 1,371 1,359 1,385 1,442 1,500
25 to 29 years old.......... 80 250 358 476 634 668 692 721 772 845 891 873 827 794 783 798 832 929 943
30 to 34 years old.......... 37 130 212 232 286 322 336 324 322 378 444 464 433 408 383 360 370 429 473
35 years old and over.... 46 141 326 374 493 500 503 539 603 690 746 727 698 668 661 646 660 758 852
Part-time .............................. 2,765 4,999 5,998 6,303 6,662 6,690 6,802 6,978 7,355 7,708 7,932 8,008 7,910 7,779 7,753 7,779 7,865 8,463 9,012
14 to 17 years old ............. 16 26 19 10 28 36 36 31 27 36 32 36 35 47 48 68 70 75 82
18 and 19 years old .......... 205 308 306 435 407 417 440 446 453 528 561 604 556 521 496 585 586 607 639
20 and 21 years old .......... 236 388 456 553 590 586 601 585 606 675 738 842 850 855 814 1,015 1,003 1,040 1,064
22 to 24 years old ............. 564 765 796 886 1,023 992 1,058 1,074 1,096 1,059 1,174 1,212 1,348 1,314 1,370 1,343 1,336 1,366 1,446
25 to 29 years old ............. 665 1,202 1,291 1,158 1,286 1,296 1,282 1,352 1,471 1,576 1,648 1,672 1,600 1,522 1,489 1,423 1,472 1,601 1,618
30 to 34 years old ............. 414 954 1,001 915 923 891 901 963 1,037 1,079 1,060 1,025 973 942 935 896 915 1,025 1,119
35 years old and over........ 663 1,356 2,127 2,345 2,404 2,472 2,483 2,527 2,664 2,754 2,718 2,616 2,550 2,578 2,600 2,449 2,483 2,749 3,043
Males................................ 1,540 2,185 2,476 2,611 2,648 2,653 2,696 2,786 2,955 3,101 3,207 3,241 3,211 3,179 3,178 3,122 3,137 3,367 3,619
14 to 17 years old.......... 4 12 11 7 13 15 17 14 20 25 23 20 17 20 20 16 16 17 18
18 and 19 years old....... 94 149 127 212 178 184 200 204 188 226 245 273 246 239 239 297 295 305 320
20 and 21 years old....... 108 172 224 255 248 260 257 269 289 330 362 398 423 413 409 451 445 460 470
22 to 24 years old.......... 318 359 361 388 436 428 452 438 450 430 508 552 610 576 554 538 535 537 558
25 to 29 years old.......... 450 592 591 498 540 551 507 570 625 718 695 677 625 622 632 596 612 668 682
30 to 34 years old.......... 257 422 435 395 388 365 393 406 442 428 430 401 383 377 387 350 355 401 449
35 years old and over.... 309 479 728 855 845 850 869 886 941 944 944 921 906 932 936 874 879 980 1,121
Females ........................... 1,225 2,814 3,521 3,692 4,014 4,038 4,106 4,192 4,401 4,607 4,725 4,767 4,699 4,600 4,576 4,657 4,728 5,096 5,393
14 to 17 years old.......... 12 14 9 3 15 21 20 17 7 11 9 16 18 27 28 53 54 59 65
18 and 19 years old....... 112 159 179 223 230 233 240 242 265 303 316 332 310 283 257 288 290 302 319
20 and 21 years old....... 128 216 233 298 342 327 344 317 318 345 377 444 427 443 405 564 558 580 594
22 to 24 years old.......... 246 407 435 497 588 564 605 637 646 629 666 660 738 738 816 804 802 830 888
25 to 29 years old.......... 216 609 700 660 746 745 774 781 846 859 953 995 975 900 857 827 860 933 935
30 to 34 years old.......... 158 532 567 520 535 526 508 557 595 651 630 624 589 564 548 546 560 624 670
35 years old and over.... 354 876 1,399 1,491 1,560 1,623 1,614 1,640 1,723 1,810 1,774 1,695 1,643 1,646 1,664 1,575 1,604 1,770 1,922

NOTE: Distributions by age are estimates based on samples of the civilian noninstitutional SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher
population from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. Data through 1995 are Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universities”
for institutions of higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree- surveys, 1970 and 1980; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Fall
granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal finan- Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:90–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enroll-
cial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher educa- ment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980
tion classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a few higher education through 2025. U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey
institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published (CPS), October, selected years, 1970 through 2014. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

60 Reference Tables
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Table 16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control
and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2025
Males Females Private
Level and year Total Full-time Part-time Males Females Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Public Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Total, all levels
1970................................ 7,368,644 5,280,064 2,088,580 4,249,702 3,118,942 3,096,371 1,153,331 2,183,693 935,249 5,620,255 1,748,389 1,730,133 18,256
1975................................ 9,679,455 6,168,396 3,511,059 5,257,005 4,422,450 3,459,328 1,797,677 2,709,068 1,713,382 7,826,032 1,853,423 1,814,844 38,579
1980................................ 10,475,055 6,361,744 4,113,311 5,000,177 5,474,878 3,226,857 1,773,320 3,134,887 2,339,991 8,441,955 2,033,100 1,926,703 106,397
1981................................ 10,754,522 6,449,068 4,305,454 5,108,271 5,646,251 3,260,473 1,847,798 3,188,595 2,457,656 8,648,363 2,106,159 1,958,848 147,311
1982................................ 10,825,062 6,483,805 4,341,257 5,170,494 5,654,568 3,299,436 1,871,058 3,184,369 2,470,199 8,713,073 2,111,989 1,939,389 172,600
1983................................ 10,845,995 6,514,034 4,331,961 5,158,300 5,687,695 3,304,247 1,854,053 3,209,787 2,477,908 8,697,118 2,148,877 1,961,076 187,801
1984................................ 10,618,071 6,347,653 4,270,418 5,006,813 5,611,258 3,194,930 1,811,883 3,152,723 2,458,535 8,493,491 2,124,580 1,940,310 184,270
1985................................ 10,596,674 6,319,592 4,277,082 4,962,080 5,634,594 3,156,446 1,805,634 3,163,146 2,471,448 8,477,125 2,119,549 1,928,996 190,553
1986................................ 10,797,975 6,352,073 4,445,902 5,017,505 5,780,470 3,146,330 1,871,175 3,205,743 2,574,727 8,660,716 2,137,259 1,928,294 208,965
1987................................ 11,046,235 6,462,549 4,583,686 5,068,457 5,977,778 3,163,676 1,904,781 3,298,873 2,678,905 8,918,589 2,127,646 1,939,942 187,704
1988................................ 11,316,548 6,642,428 4,674,120 5,137,644 6,178,904 3,206,442 1,931,202 3,435,986 2,742,918 9,103,146 2,213,402 — —
1989................................ 11,742,531 6,840,696 4,901,835 5,310,990 6,431,541 3,278,647 2,032,343 3,562,049 2,869,492 9,487,742 2,254,789 — —
1990................................ 11,959,106 6,976,030 4,983,076 5,379,759 6,579,347 3,336,535 2,043,224 3,639,495 2,939,852 9,709,596 2,249,510 2,043,407 206,103
1991................................ 12,439,287 7,221,412 5,217,875 5,571,003 6,868,284 3,435,526 2,135,477 3,785,886 3,082,398 10,147,957 2,291,330 2,072,354 218,976
1992................................ 12,537,700 7,244,442 5,293,258 5,582,936 6,954,764 3,424,739 2,158,197 3,819,703 3,135,061 10,216,297 2,321,403 2,101,721 219,682
1993................................ 12,323,959 7,179,482 5,144,477 5,483,682 6,840,277 3,381,997 2,101,685 3,797,485 3,042,792 10,011,787 2,312,172 2,099,197 212,975
1994................................ 12,262,608 7,168,706 5,093,902 5,422,113 6,840,495 3,341,591 2,080,522 3,827,115 3,013,380 9,945,128 2,317,480 2,100,465 217,015
1995................................ 12,231,719 7,145,268 5,086,451 5,401,130 6,830,589 3,296,610 2,104,520 3,848,658 2,981,931 9,903,626 2,328,093 2,104,693 223,400
1996................................ 12,326,948 7,298,839 5,028,109 5,420,672 6,906,276 3,339,108 2,081,564 3,959,731 2,946,545 9,935,283 2,391,665 2,112,318 279,347
1997................................ 12,450,587 7,418,598 5,031,989 5,468,532 6,982,055 3,379,597 2,088,935 4,039,001 2,943,054 10,007,479 2,443,108 2,139,824 303,284
1998................................ 12,436,937 7,538,711 4,898,226 5,446,133 6,990,804 3,428,161 2,017,972 4,110,550 2,880,254 9,950,212 2,486,725 2,152,655 334,070
1999................................ 12,739,445 7,753,548 4,985,897 5,584,234 7,155,211 3,524,586 2,059,648 4,228,962 2,926,249 10,174,228 2,565,217 2,185,290 379,927
2000................................ 13,155,393 7,922,926 5,232,467 5,778,268 7,377,125 3,588,246 2,190,022 4,334,680 3,042,445 10,539,322 2,616,071 2,213,180 402,891
2001................................ 13,715,610 8,327,640 5,387,970 6,004,431 7,711,179 3,768,630 2,235,801 4,559,010 3,152,169 10,985,871 2,729,739 2,257,718 472,021
2002................................ 14,257,077 8,734,252 5,522,825 6,192,390 8,064,687 3,934,168 2,258,222 4,800,084 3,264,603 11,432,855 2,824,222 2,306,091 518,131
2003................................ 14,480,364 9,045,253 5,435,111 6,227,372 8,252,992 4,048,682 2,178,690 4,996,571 3,256,421 11,523,103 2,957,261 2,346,673 610,588
2004................................ 14,780,630 9,284,336 5,496,294 6,340,048 8,440,582 4,140,628 2,199,420 5,143,708 3,296,874 11,650,580 3,130,050 2,389,366 740,684
2005................................ 14,963,964 9,446,430 5,517,534 6,408,871 8,555,093 4,200,863 2,208,008 5,245,567 3,309,526 11,697,730 3,266,234 2,418,368 847,866
2006................................ 15,184,302 9,571,079 5,613,223 6,513,756 8,670,546 4,264,606 2,249,150 5,306,473 3,364,073 11,847,426 3,336,876 2,448,240 888,636
2007................................ 15,603,771 9,840,978 5,762,793 6,727,600 8,876,171 4,396,868 2,330,732 5,444,110 3,432,061 12,137,583 3,466,188 2,470,327 995,861
2008................................ 16,365,738 10,254,930 6,110,808 7,066,623 9,299,115 4,577,431 2,489,192 5,677,499 3,621,616 12,591,217 3,774,521 2,536,532 1,237,989
2009................................ 17,464,179 11,038,275 6,425,904 7,563,176 9,901,003 4,942,120 2,621,056 6,096,155 3,804,848 13,386,375 4,077,804 2,595,171 1,482,633
2010................................ 18,082,427 11,457,040 6,625,387 7,836,282 10,246,145 5,118,975 2,717,307 6,338,065 3,908,080 13,703,000 4,379,427 2,652,993 1,726,434
2011................................ 18,077,303 11,365,175 6,712,128 7,822,992 10,254,311 5,070,553 2,752,439 6,294,622 3,959,689 13,694,899 4,382,404 2,718,923 1,663,481
2012................................ 17,735,638 11,097,092 6,638,546 7,714,938 10,020,700 4,984,389 2,730,549 6,112,703 3,907,997 13,478,100 4,257,538 2,744,400 1,513,138
2013................................ 17,474,835 10,938,494 6,536,341 7,659,626 9,815,209 4,949,572 2,710,054 5,988,922 3,826,287 13,347,002 4,127,833 2,757,447 1,370,386
2014................................ 17,292,787 10,783,802 6,508,985 7,585,910 9,706,877 4,876,952 2,708,958 5,906,850 3,800,027 13,244,837 4,047,950 2,771,341 1,276,609
2015 1 .............................. 17,298,000 10,801,000 6,497,000 7,499,000 9,799,000 4,861,000 2,638,000 5,940,000 3,859,000 13,353,000 3,945,000 — —
20161 .............................. 17,490,000 10,930,000 6,561,000 7,528,000 9,962,000 4,880,000 2,648,000 6,049,000 3,913,000 13,499,000 3,992,000 — —
20171 .............................. 17,853,000 11,164,000 6,689,000 7,634,000 10,219,000 4,945,000 2,689,000 6,219,000 4,000,000 13,777,000 4,076,000 — —
20181 .............................. 18,214,000 11,386,000 6,828,000 7,774,000 10,440,000 5,029,000 2,746,000 6,358,000 4,082,000 14,056,000 4,158,000 — —
20191 .............................. 18,496,000 11,551,000 6,944,000 7,889,000 10,607,000 5,095,000 2,793,000 6,456,000 4,151,000 14,275,000 4,220,000 — —
20201 .............................. 18,704,000 11,670,000 7,034,000 7,970,000 10,734,000 5,142,000 2,828,000 6,528,000 4,206,000 14,436,000 4,268,000 — —
20211 .............................. 18,954,000 11,814,000 7,140,000 8,074,000 10,880,000 5,198,000 2,876,000 6,616,000 4,264,000 14,630,000 4,324,000 — —
20221 .............................. 19,187,000 11,950,000 7,236,000 8,176,000 11,011,000 5,253,000 2,923,000 6,697,000 4,314,000 14,811,000 4,376,000 — —
20231 .............................. 19,417,000 12,098,000 7,318,000 8,274,000 11,143,000 5,313,000 2,960,000 6,785,000 4,358,000 14,988,000 4,429,000 — —
20241 .............................. 19,631,000 12,229,000 7,403,000 8,367,000 11,264,000 5,372,000 2,995,000 6,857,000 4,407,000 15,154,000 4,477,000 — —
20251 .............................. 19,756,000 12,285,000 7,471,000 8,433,000 11,323,000 5,407,000 3,026,000 6,878,000 4,445,000 15,255,000 4,501,000 — —

2-year institutions2
1970................................ 2,318,956 1,228,909 1,090,047 1,374,426 944,530 771,298 603,128 457,611 486,919 2,194,983 123,973 113,299 10,674
1975................................ 3,965,726 1,761,009 2,204,717 2,163,604 1,802,122 1,035,531 1,128,073 725,478 1,076,644 3,831,973 133,753 112,997 20,756
1980................................ 4,525,097 1,753,637 2,771,460 2,046,642 2,478,455 879,619 1,167,023 874,018 1,604,437 4,327,592 197,505 114,094 83,411
1981................................ 4,715,403 1,795,858 2,919,545 2,124,136 2,591,267 897,657 1,226,479 898,201 1,693,066 4,479,900 235,503 119,166 116,337
1982................................ 4,770,712 1,839,704 2,931,008 2,169,802 2,600,910 930,606 1,239,196 909,098 1,691,812 4,518,659 252,053 114,976 137,077
1983................................ 4,723,466 1,826,801 2,896,665 2,131,109 2,592,357 914,704 1,216,405 912,097 1,680,260 4,459,330 264,136 116,293 147,843
1984................................ 4,530,337 1,703,786 2,826,551 2,016,463 2,513,874 841,347 1,175,116 862,439 1,651,435 4,278,661 251,676 108,247 143,429
1985................................ 4,531,077 1,690,607 2,840,470 2,002,234 2,528,843 826,308 1,175,926 864,299 1,664,544 4,269,733 261,344 108,791 152,553
1986................................ 4,679,548 1,696,261 2,983,287 2,060,932 2,618,616 824,551 1,236,381 871,710 1,746,906 4,413,691 265,857 101,498 164,359
1987................................ 4,776,222 1,708,669 3,067,553 2,072,823 2,703,399 820,167 1,252,656 888,502 1,814,897 4,541,054 235,168 90,102 145,066
1988................................ 4,875,155 1,743,592 3,131,563 2,089,689 2,785,466 818,593 1,271,096 924,999 1,860,467 4,615,487 259,668 — —
1989................................ 5,150,889 1,855,701 3,295,188 2,216,800 2,934,089 869,688 1,347,112 986,013 1,948,076 4,883,660 267,229 — —
1990................................ 5,240,083 1,883,962 3,356,121 2,232,769 3,007,314 881,392 1,351,377 1,002,570 2,004,744 4,996,475 243,608 89,158 154,450
1991................................ 5,651,900 2,074,530 3,577,370 2,401,910 3,249,990 961,397 1,440,513 1,113,133 2,136,857 5,404,815 247,085 89,289 157,796
1992................................ 5,722,349 2,080,005 3,642,344 2,413,266 3,309,083 951,816 1,461,450 1,128,189 2,180,894 5,484,514 237,835 83,288 154,547
1993................................ 5,565,561 2,043,319 3,522,242 2,345,396 3,220,165 928,216 1,417,180 1,115,103 2,105,062 5,337,022 228,539 86,357 142,182
1994................................ 5,529,609 2,031,713 3,497,896 2,323,161 3,206,448 911,589 1,411,572 1,120,124 2,086,324 5,308,366 221,243 85,607 135,636
1995................................ 5,492,098 1,977,046 3,515,052 2,328,500 3,163,598 878,215 1,450,285 1,098,831 2,064,767 5,277,398 214,700 75,154 139,546
1996................................ 5,562,780 2,072,215 3,490,565 2,358,792 3,203,988 916,452 1,442,340 1,155,763 2,048,225 5,314,038 248,742 75,253 173,489
1997................................ 5,605,569 2,095,171 3,510,398 2,389,711 3,215,858 931,394 1,458,317 1,163,777 2,052,081 5,360,686 244,883 71,794 173,089
1998................................ 5,489,314 2,085,906 3,403,408 2,333,334 3,155,980 936,421 1,396,913 1,149,485 2,006,495 5,245,963 243,351 65,870 177,481
1999................................ 5,653,256 2,167,242 3,486,014 2,413,322 3,239,934 979,203 1,434,119 1,188,039 2,051,895 5,397,786 255,470 63,301 192,169
2000................................ 5,948,104 2,217,044 3,731,060 2,558,520 3,389,584 995,839 1,562,681 1,221,205 2,168,379 5,697,061 251,043 58,844 192,199
2001................................ 6,250,529 2,374,490 3,876,039 2,675,193 3,575,336 1,066,281 1,608,912 1,308,209 2,267,127 5,996,651 253,878 47,549 206,329
2002................................ 6,529,198 2,556,032 3,973,166 2,753,405 3,775,793 1,135,669 1,617,736 1,420,363 2,355,430 6,270,199 258,999 47,087 211,912
2003................................ 6,493,862 2,650,337 3,843,525 2,689,928 3,803,934 1,162,555 1,527,373 1,487,782 2,316,152 6,208,885 284,977 43,868 241,109
2004................................ 6,545,570 2,683,489 3,862,081 2,697,507 3,848,063 1,166,554 1,530,953 1,516,935 2,331,128 6,243,344 302,226 42,250 259,976

See notes at end of table.

62 Reference Tables
Table 16. Total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control
and level of institution: Selected years, 1970 through 2025—Continued
Males Females Private
Level and year Total Full-time Part-time Males Females Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Public Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2005................................ 6,487,826 2,646,763 3,841,063 2,680,299 3,807,527 1,153,759 1,526,540 1,493,004 2,314,523 6,184,000 303,826 43,522 260,304
2006................................ 6,518,291 2,643,222 3,875,069 2,704,654 3,813,637 1,159,800 1,544,854 1,483,422 2,330,215 6,224,871 293,420 39,156 254,264
2007................................ 6,617,621 2,692,491 3,925,130 2,770,457 3,847,164 1,190,067 1,580,390 1,502,424 2,344,740 6,323,810 293,811 33,486 260,325
2008................................ 6,971,105 2,832,110 4,138,995 2,935,793 4,035,312 1,249,832 1,685,961 1,582,278 2,453,034 6,640,071 331,034 35,351 295,683
2009................................ 7,522,581 3,243,952 4,278,629 3,197,338 4,325,243 1,446,372 1,750,966 1,797,580 2,527,663 7,101,569 421,012 34,772 386,240
2010................................ 7,683,597 3,365,379 4,318,218 3,265,885 4,417,712 1,483,230 1,782,655 1,882,149 2,535,563 7,218,063 465,534 32,683 432,851
2011................................ 7,511,150 3,170,207 4,340,943 3,175,803 4,335,347 1,391,183 1,784,620 1,779,024 2,556,323 7,068,158 442,992 39,855 403,137
2012................................ 7,167,840 2,941,797 4,226,043 3,046,093 4,121,747 1,305,657 1,740,436 1,636,140 2,485,607 6,792,065 375,775 37,698 338,077
2013................................ 6,968,739 2,832,916 4,135,823 2,997,916 3,970,823 1,278,252 1,719,664 1,554,664 2,416,159 6,625,141 343,598 32,198 311,400
2014................................ 6,714,485 2,660,728 4,053,757 2,893,779 3,820,706 1,200,105 1,693,674 1,460,623 2,360,083 6,397,765 316,720 30,365 286,355
20151 .............................. 7,114,000 2,960,000 4,154,000 3,024,000 4,090,000 1,311,000 1,713,000 1,649,000 2,441,000 6,763,000 351,000 — —
20161 .............................. 7,194,000 3,002,000 4,192,000 3,038,000 4,156,000 1,320,000 1,718,000 1,682,000 2,474,000 6,838,000 356,000 — —
20171 .............................. 7,346,000 3,075,000 4,271,000 3,083,000 4,263,000 1,340,000 1,743,000 1,735,000 2,528,000 6,981,000 365,000 — —
20181 .............................. 7,500,000 3,142,000 4,358,000 3,144,000 4,356,000 1,365,000 1,779,000 1,777,000 2,579,000 7,127,000 373,000 — —
20191 .............................. 7,622,000 3,191,000 4,430,000 3,193,000 4,429,000 1,385,000 1,808,000 1,806,000 2,622,000 7,243,000 379,000 — —
20201 .............................. 7,706,000 3,222,000 4,484,000 3,225,000 4,481,000 1,396,000 1,829,000 1,826,000 2,656,000 7,323,000 383,000 — —
20211 .............................. 7,810,000 3,262,000 4,548,000 3,268,000 4,542,000 1,411,000 1,857,000 1,851,000 2,691,000 7,422,000 388,000 — —
20221 .............................. 7,912,000 3,306,000 4,606,000 3,314,000 4,598,000 1,428,000 1,886,000 1,878,000 2,721,000 7,519,000 393,000 — —
20231 .............................. 8,007,000 3,351,000 4,655,000 3,355,000 4,652,000 1,446,000 1,908,000 1,905,000 2,747,000 7,608,000 399,000 — —
20241 .............................. 8,096,000 3,388,000 4,708,000 3,393,000 4,704,000 1,463,000 1,930,000 1,925,000 2,778,000 7,693,000 403,000 — —
20251 .............................. 8,157,000 3,405,000 4,752,000 3,423,000 4,734,000 1,474,000 1,950,000 1,931,000 2,803,000 7,752,000 405,000 — —

4-year institutions
1970................................ 5,049,688 4,051,155 998,533 2,875,276 2,174,412 2,325,073 550,203 1,726,082 448,330 3,425,272 1,624,416 1,616,834 7,582
1975................................ 5,713,729 4,407,387 1,306,342 3,093,401 2,620,328 2,423,797 669,604 1,983,590 636,738 3,994,059 1,719,670 1,701,847 17,823
1980................................ 5,949,958 4,608,107 1,341,851 2,953,535 2,996,423 2,347,238 606,297 2,260,869 735,554 4,114,363 1,835,595 1,812,609 22,986
1981................................ 6,039,119 4,653,210 1,385,909 2,984,135 3,054,984 2,362,816 621,319 2,290,394 764,590 4,168,463 1,870,656 1,839,682 30,974
1982................................ 6,054,350 4,644,101 1,410,249 3,000,692 3,053,658 2,368,830 631,862 2,275,271 778,387 4,194,414 1,859,936 1,824,413 35,523
1983................................ 6,122,529 4,687,233 1,435,296 3,027,191 3,095,338 2,389,543 637,648 2,297,690 797,648 4,237,788 1,884,741 1,844,783 39,958
1984................................ 6,087,734 4,643,867 1,443,867 2,990,350 3,097,384 2,353,583 636,767 2,290,284 807,100 4,214,830 1,872,904 1,832,063 40,841
1985................................ 6,065,597 4,628,985 1,436,612 2,959,846 3,105,751 2,330,138 629,708 2,298,847 806,904 4,207,392 1,858,205 1,820,205 38,000
1986................................ 6,118,427 4,655,812 1,462,615 2,956,573 3,161,854 2,321,779 634,794 2,334,033 827,821 4,247,025 1,871,402 1,826,796 44,606
1987................................ 6,270,013 4,753,880 1,516,133 2,995,634 3,274,379 2,343,509 652,125 2,410,371 864,008 4,377,535 1,892,478 1,849,840 42,638
1988................................ 6,441,393 4,898,836 1,542,557 3,047,955 3,393,438 2,387,849 660,106 2,510,987 882,451 4,487,659 1,953,734 — —
1989................................ 6,591,642 4,984,995 1,606,647 3,094,190 3,497,452 2,408,959 685,231 2,576,036 921,416 4,604,082 1,987,560 — —
1990................................ 6,719,023 5,092,068 1,626,955 3,146,990 3,572,033 2,455,143 691,847 2,636,925 935,108 4,713,121 2,005,902 1,954,249 51,653
1991................................ 6,787,387 5,146,882 1,640,505 3,169,093 3,618,294 2,474,129 694,964 2,672,753 945,541 4,743,142 2,044,245 1,983,065 61,180
1992................................ 6,815,351 5,164,437 1,650,914 3,169,670 3,645,681 2,472,923 696,747 2,691,514 954,167 4,731,783 2,083,568 2,018,433 65,135
1993................................ 6,758,398 5,136,163 1,622,235 3,138,286 3,620,112 2,453,781 684,505 2,682,382 937,730 4,674,765 2,083,633 2,012,840 70,793
1994................................ 6,732,999 5,136,993 1,596,006 3,098,952 3,634,047 2,430,002 668,950 2,706,991 927,056 4,636,762 2,096,237 2,014,858 81,379
1995................................ 6,739,621 5,168,222 1,571,399 3,072,630 3,666,991 2,418,395 654,235 2,749,827 917,164 4,626,228 2,113,393 2,029,539 83,854
1996................................ 6,764,168 5,226,624 1,537,544 3,061,880 3,702,288 2,422,656 639,224 2,803,968 898,320 4,621,245 2,142,923 2,037,065 105,858
1997................................ 6,845,018 5,323,427 1,521,591 3,078,821 3,766,197 2,448,203 630,618 2,875,224 890,973 4,646,793 2,198,225 2,068,030 130,195
1998................................ 6,947,623 5,452,805 1,494,818 3,112,799 3,834,824 2,491,740 621,059 2,961,065 873,759 4,704,249 2,243,374 2,086,785 156,589
1999................................ 7,086,189 5,586,306 1,499,883 3,170,912 3,915,277 2,545,383 625,529 3,040,923 874,354 4,776,442 2,309,747 2,121,989 187,758
2000................................ 7,207,289 5,705,882 1,501,407 3,219,748 3,987,541 2,592,407 627,341 3,113,475 874,066 4,842,261 2,365,028 2,154,336 210,692
2001................................ 7,465,081 5,953,150 1,511,931 3,329,238 4,135,843 2,702,349 626,889 3,250,801 885,042 4,989,220 2,475,861 2,210,169 265,692
2002................................ 7,727,879 6,178,220 1,549,659 3,438,985 4,288,894 2,798,499 640,486 3,379,721 909,173 5,162,656 2,565,223 2,259,004 306,219
2003................................ 7,986,502 6,394,916 1,591,586 3,537,444 4,449,058 2,886,127 651,317 3,508,789 940,269 5,314,218 2,672,284 2,302,805 369,479
2004................................ 8,235,060 6,600,847 1,634,213 3,642,541 4,592,519 2,974,074 668,467 3,626,773 965,746 5,407,236 2,827,824 2,347,116 480,708
2005................................ 8,476,138 6,799,667 1,676,471 3,728,572 4,747,566 3,047,104 681,468 3,752,563 995,003 5,513,730 2,962,408 2,374,846 587,562
2006................................ 8,666,011 6,927,857 1,738,154 3,809,102 4,856,909 3,104,806 704,296 3,823,051 1,033,858 5,622,555 3,043,456 2,409,084 634,372
2007................................ 8,986,150 7,148,487 1,837,663 3,957,143 5,029,007 3,206,801 750,342 3,941,686 1,087,321 5,813,773 3,172,377 2,436,841 735,536
2008................................ 9,394,633 7,422,820 1,971,813 4,130,830 5,263,803 3,327,599 803,231 4,095,221 1,168,582 5,951,146 3,443,487 2,501,181 942,306
2009................................ 9,941,598 7,794,323 2,147,275 4,365,838 5,575,760 3,495,748 870,090 4,298,575 1,277,185 6,284,806 3,656,792 2,560,399 1,096,393
2010................................ 10,398,830 8,091,661 2,307,169 4,570,397 5,828,433 3,635,745 934,652 4,455,916 1,372,517 6,484,937 3,913,893 2,620,310 1,293,583
2011................................ 10,566,153 8,194,968 2,371,185 4,647,189 5,918,964 3,679,370 967,819 4,515,598 1,403,366 6,626,741 3,939,412 2,679,068 1,260,344
2012................................ 10,567,798 8,155,295 2,412,503 4,668,845 5,898,953 3,678,732 990,113 4,476,563 1,422,390 6,686,035 3,881,763 2,706,702 1,175,061
2013................................ 10,506,096 8,105,578 2,400,518 4,661,710 5,844,386 3,671,320 990,390 4,434,258 1,410,128 6,721,861 3,784,235 2,725,249 1,058,986
2014................................ 10,578,302 8,123,074 2,455,228 4,692,131 5,886,171 3,676,847 1,015,284 4,446,227 1,439,944 6,847,072 3,731,230 2,740,976 990,254
2015 1 .............................. 10,184,000 7,841,000 2,343,000 4,475,000 5,709,000 3,550,000 925,000 4,291,000 1,418,000 6,589,000 3,595,000 — —
20161 .............................. 10,296,000 7,928,000 2,369,000 4,491,000 5,806,000 3,561,000 930,000 4,367,000 1,439,000 6,661,000 3,636,000 — —
20171 .............................. 10,507,000 8,089,000 2,418,000 4,551,000 5,956,000 3,605,000 946,000 4,484,000 1,472,000 6,796,000 3,711,000 — —
20181 .............................. 10,714,000 8,244,000 2,470,000 4,630,000 6,084,000 3,663,000 967,000 4,581,000 1,503,000 6,929,000 3,785,000 — —
20191 .............................. 10,874,000 8,360,000 2,514,000 4,695,000 6,178,000 3,710,000 985,000 4,649,000 1,529,000 7,033,000 3,841,000 — —
20201 .............................. 10,998,000 8,449,000 2,550,000 4,746,000 6,253,000 3,747,000 999,000 4,702,000 1,550,000 7,113,000 3,885,000 — —
20211 .............................. 11,144,000 8,553,000 2,592,000 4,806,000 6,338,000 3,788,000 1,019,000 4,765,000 1,573,000 7,208,000 3,936,000 — —
20221 .............................. 11,275,000 8,644,000 2,630,000 4,862,000 6,413,000 3,825,000 1,037,000 4,819,000 1,593,000 7,292,000 3,982,000 — —
20231 .............................. 11,410,000 8,747,000 2,663,000 4,919,000 6,491,000 3,867,000 1,052,000 4,880,000 1,611,000 7,380,000 4,030,000 — —
20241 .............................. 11,535,000 8,840,000 2,695,000 4,974,000 6,561,000 3,909,000 1,065,000 4,932,000 1,629,000 7,461,000 4,074,000 — —
20251 .............................. 11,599,000 8,880,000 2,719,000 5,010,000 6,589,000 3,933,000 1,077,000 4,947,000 1,642,000 7,503,000 4,096,000 — —

—Not available. higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Some data have been revised from
1Projected. previously published figures.
2Beginning in 1980, 2-year institutions include schools accredited by the Accrediting Com- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher
mission of Career Schools and Colleges of Technology. Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universi-
NOTE: Data include unclassified undergraduate students. Data through 1995 are for insti- ties” surveys, 1970 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
tutions of higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree- (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:86–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring
granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal 2015, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projec-
financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier tion Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared February 2016.)
higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a few

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 63

Table 17. Total postbaccalaureate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status, sex of student, and control
of institution: 1967 through 2025
Males Females Private
Year Total Full-time Part-time Males Females Full-time Part-time Full-time Part-time Public Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1967................................. 896,065 448,238 447,827 630,701 265,364 354,628 276,073 93,610 171,754 522,623 373,442 373,336 106
1968................................. 1,037,377 469,747 567,630 696,649 340,728 358,686 337,963 111,061 229,667 648,657 388,720 388,681 39
1969................................. 1,120,175 506,833 613,342 738,673 381,502 383,630 355,043 123,203 258,299 738,551 381,624 381,558 66

1970................................. 1,212,243 536,226 676,017 793,940 418,303 407,724 386,216 128,502 289,801 807,879 404,364 404,287 77
1971................................. 1,204,390 564,236 640,154 789,131 415,259 428,167 360,964 136,069 279,190 796,516 407,874 407,804 70
1972................................. 1,272,421 583,299 689,122 810,164 462,257 436,533 373,631 146,766 315,491 848,031 424,390 424,278 112
1973................................. 1,342,452 610,935 731,517 833,453 508,999 444,219 389,234 166,716 342,283 897,104 445,348 445,205 143
1974................................. 1,425,001 643,927 781,074 856,847 568,154 454,706 402,141 189,221 378,933 956,770 468,231 467,950 281

1975................................. 1,505,404 672,938 832,466 891,992 613,412 467,425 424,567 205,513 407,899 1,008,476 496,928 496,604 324
1976................................. 1,577,546 683,825 893,721 904,551 672,995 459,286 445,265 224,539 448,456 1,033,115 544,431 541,064 3,367
1977................................. 1,569,084 698,902 870,182 891,819 677,265 462,038 429,781 236,864 440,401 1,004,013 565,071 561,384 3,687
1978................................. 1,575,693 704,831 870,862 879,931 695,762 458,865 421,066 245,966 449,796 998,608 577,085 573,563 3,522
1979................................. 1,571,922 714,624 857,298 862,754 709,168 456,197 406,557 258,427 450,741 989,991 581,931 578,425 3,506

1980................................. 1,621,840 736,214 885,626 874,197 747,643 462,387 411,810 273,827 473,816 1,015,439 606,401 601,084 5,317
1981................................. 1,617,150 732,182 884,968 866,785 750,365 452,364 414,421 279,818 470,547 998,669 618,481 613,557 4,924
1982................................. 1,600,718 736,813 863,905 860,890 739,828 453,519 407,371 283,294 456,534 983,014 617,704 613,350 4,354
1983................................. 1,618,666 747,016 871,650 865,425 753,241 455,540 409,885 291,476 461,765 985,616 633,050 628,111 4,939
1984................................. 1,623,869 750,735 873,134 856,761 767,108 452,579 404,182 298,156 468,952 983,879 639,990 634,109 5,881

1985................................. 1,650,381 755,629 894,752 856,370 794,011 451,274 405,096 304,355 489,656 1,002,148 648,233 642,795 5,438
1986................................. 1,705,536 767,477 938,059 867,010 838,526 452,717 414,293 314,760 523,766 1,053,177 652,359 644,185 8,174
1987................................. 1,720,407 768,536 951,871 863,599 856,808 447,212 416,387 321,324 535,484 1,054,665 665,742 662,408 3,334
1988................................. 1,738,789 794,340 944,449 864,252 874,537 455,337 408,915 339,003 535,534 1,058,242 680,547 — —
1989................................. 1,796,029 820,254 975,775 879,025 917,004 461,596 417,429 358,658 558,346 1,090,221 705,808 — —

1990................................. 1,859,531 844,955 1,014,576 904,150 955,381 471,217 432,933 373,738 581,643 1,135,121 724,410 716,820 7,590
1991................................. 1,919,666 893,917 1,025,749 930,841 988,825 493,849 436,992 400,068 588,757 1,161,606 758,060 746,687 11,373
1992................................. 1,949,659 917,676 1,031,983 941,053 1,008,606 502,166 438,887 415,510 593,096 1,168,270 781,389 770,802 10,587
1993................................. 1,980,844 948,136 1,032,708 943,768 1,037,076 508,574 435,194 439,562 597,514 1,177,301 803,543 789,700 13,843
1994................................. 2,016,182 969,070 1,047,112 949,785 1,066,397 513,592 436,193 455,478 610,919 1,188,552 827,630 809,642 17,988

1995................................. 2,030,062 983,534 1,046,528 941,409 1,088,653 510,782 430,627 472,752 615,901 1,188,748 841,314 824,351 16,963
1996................................. 2,040,572 1,004,114 1,036,458 932,153 1,108,419 512,100 420,053 492,014 616,405 1,185,216 855,356 830,238 25,118
1997................................. 2,051,747 1,019,464 1,032,283 927,496 1,124,251 510,845 416,651 508,619 615,632 1,188,640 863,107 837,790 25,317
1998................................. 2,070,030 1,024,627 1,045,403 923,132 1,146,898 505,492 417,640 519,135 627,763 1,187,557 882,473 852,270 30,203
1999................................. 2,110,246 1,049,591 1,060,655 930,930 1,179,316 508,930 422,000 540,661 638,655 1,201,511 908,735 869,739 38,996

2000................................. 2,156,896 1,086,674 1,070,222 943,501 1,213,395 522,847 420,654 563,827 649,568 1,213,464 943,432 896,239 47,193
2001................................. 2,212,377 1,119,862 1,092,515 956,384 1,255,993 531,260 425,124 588,602 667,391 1,247,285 965,092 909,612 55,480
2002................................. 2,354,634 1,212,107 1,142,527 1,009,726 1,344,908 566,930 442,796 645,177 699,731 1,319,138 1,035,496 959,385 76,111
2003................................. 2,431,117 1,280,880 1,150,237 1,032,892 1,398,225 589,190 443,702 691,690 706,535 1,335,595 1,095,522 994,375 101,147
2004................................. 2,491,414 1,325,841 1,165,573 1,047,214 1,444,200 598,727 448,487 727,114 717,086 1,329,532 1,161,882 1,022,319 139,563

2005................................. 2,523,511 1,350,581 1,172,930 1,047,054 1,476,457 602,525 444,529 748,056 728,401 1,324,104 1,199,407 1,036,324 163,083
2006................................. 2,574,568 1,386,226 1,188,342 1,061,059 1,513,509 614,709 446,350 771,517 741,992 1,332,707 1,241,861 1,064,626 177,235
2007................................. 2,644,357 1,428,914 1,215,443 1,088,314 1,556,043 632,576 455,738 796,338 759,705 1,353,197 1,291,160 1,100,823 190,337
2008................................. 2,737,076 1,492,813 1,244,263 1,122,272 1,614,804 656,926 465,346 835,887 778,917 1,380,936 1,356,140 1,124,987 231,153
2009................................. 2,849,415 1,567,080 1,282,335 1,169,777 1,679,638 689,977 479,800 877,103 802,535 1,424,393 1,425,022 1,172,501 252,521

2010................................. 2,937,011 1,630,142 1,306,869 1,209,477 1,727,534 719,408 490,069 910,734 816,800 1,439,171 1,497,840 1,201,489 296,351
2011................................. 2,933,287 1,637,356 1,295,931 1,211,264 1,722,023 722,265 488,999 915,091 806,932 1,421,404 1,511,883 1,207,896 303,987
2012................................. 2,908,840 1,637,312 1,271,528 1,204,068 1,704,772 724,017 480,051 913,295 791,477 1,406,567 1,502,273 1,206,988 295,285
2013................................. 2,900,954 1,658,618 1,242,336 1,201,160 1,699,794 732,594 468,566 926,024 773,770 1,398,556 1,502,398 1,216,557 285,841
2014................................. 2,914,582 1,670,173 1,244,409 1,211,151 1,703,431 742,439 468,712 927,734 775,697 1,410,178 1,504,404 1,224,748 279,656

20151 ............................... 2,966,000 1,684,000 1,282,000 1,261,000 1,704,000 777,000 484,000 906,000 798,000 1,436,000 1,529,000 — —
20161 ............................... 3,025,000 1,721,000 1,304,000 1,279,000 1,746,000 790,000 489,000 931,000 815,000 1,465,000 1,560,000 — —
20171 ............................... 3,119,000 1,778,000 1,341,000 1,311,000 1,809,000 809,000 501,000 969,000 840,000 1,510,000 1,609,000 — —
20181 ............................... 3,196,000 1,821,000 1,375,000 1,344,000 1,852,000 828,000 516,000 993,000 860,000 1,547,000 1,649,000 — —
20191 ............................... 3,257,000 1,852,000 1,405,000 1,371,000 1,886,000 843,000 528,000 1,009,000 876,000 1,577,000 1,680,000 — —

20201 ............................... 3,308,000 1,879,000 1,429,000 1,394,000 1,914,000 855,000 539,000 1,024,000 890,000 1,602,000 1,706,000 — —
20211 ............................... 3,369,000 1,912,000 1,457,000 1,422,000 1,947,000 870,000 552,000 1,042,000 905,000 1,631,000 1,738,000 — —
20221 ............................... 3,427,000 1,944,000 1,483,000 1,449,000 1,978,000 884,000 565,000 1,060,000 918,000 1,660,000 1,767,000 — —
20231 ............................... 3,479,000 1,973,000 1,506,000 1,473,000 2,006,000 897,000 576,000 1,076,000 930,000 1,685,000 1,794,000 — —
20241 ............................... 3,517,000 1,991,000 1,526,000 1,492,000 2,026,000 907,000 585,000 1,085,000 941,000 1,704,000 1,814,000 — —
20251 ............................... 3,534,000 1,994,000 1,541,000 1,504,000 2,030,000 911,000 593,000 1,082,000 948,000 1,712,000 1,822,000 — —

—Not available. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher Edu-
1Projected. cation General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universities” sur-
NOTE: Data include unclassified graduate students. Data through 1995 are for institutions of veys, 1967 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Fall
higher education, while later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institu- Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:86–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall Enroll-
tions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. ment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980
The degree-granting classification is very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but through 2025. (This table was prepared February 2016.)
it includes more 2-year colleges and excludes a few higher education institutions that did not
grant degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.

64 Reference Tables
Table 18. Total fall enrollment of first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status,
sex of student, and level and control of institution: 1955 through 2025
Males Females 4-year 2-year
Year Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Public Private Public Private
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
19551 ............................... 670,013 — — 415,604 — — 254,409 — — 283,084 2 246,960 2 117,288 2 22,681 2
19561 ............................... 717,504 — — 442,903 — — 274,601 — — 292,743 2 261,951 2 137,406 2 25,404 2
19571 ............................... 723,879 — — 441,969 — — 281,910 — — 293,544 2 262,695 2 140,522 2 27,118 2
19581 ............................... 775,308 — — 465,422 — — 309,886 — — 328,242 2 272,117 2 146,379 2 28,570 2
19591 ............................... 821,520 — — 487,890 — — 333,630 — — 348,150 2 291,691 2 153,393 2 28,286 2
19601 ............................... 923,069 — — 539,512 — — 383,557 — — 395,884 2 313,209 2 181,860 2 32,116 2
19611 ............................... 1,018,361 — — 591,913 — — 426,448 — — 438,135 2 336,449 2 210,101 2 33,676 2
19621 ............................... 1,030,554 — — 598,099 — — 432,455 — — 445,191 2 324,923 2 224,537 2 35,903 2
19631 ............................... 1,046,424 — — 604,282 — — 442,142 — — — — — —
19641 ............................... 1,224,840 — — 701,524 — — 523,316 — — 539,251 2 363,348 2 275,413 2 46,828 2
19651 ............................... 1,441,822 — — 829,215 — — 612,607 — — 642,233 2 398,792 2 347,788 2 53,009 2
1966................................. 1,554,337 — — 889,516 — — 664,821 — — 626,472 2 382,889 2 478,459 2 66,517 2
1967................................. 1,640,936 1,335,512 305,424 931,127 761,299 169,828 709,809 574,213 135,596 644,525 368,300 561,488 66,623
1968................................. 1,892,849 1,470,653 422,196 1,082,367 847,005 235,362 810,482 623,648 186,834 724,377 378,052 718,562 71,858
1969................................. 1,967,104 1,525,290 441,814 1,118,269 876,280 241,989 848,835 649,010 199,825 699,167 391,508 814,132 62,297
1970................................. 2,063,397 1,587,072 476,325 1,151,960 896,281 255,679 911,437 690,791 220,646 717,449 395,886 890,703 59,359
1971................................. 2,119,018 1,606,036 512,982 1,170,518 895,715 274,803 948,500 710,321 238,179 704,052 384,695 971,295 58,976
1972................................. 2,152,778 1,574,197 578,581 1,157,501 858,254 299,247 995,277 715,943 279,334 680,337 380,982 1,036,616 54,843
1973................................. 2,226,041 1,607,269 618,772 1,182,173 867,314 314,859 1,043,868 739,955 303,913 698,777 378,994 1,089,182 59,088
1974................................. 2,365,761 1,673,333 692,428 1,243,790 896,077 347,713 1,121,971 777,256 344,715 745,637 386,391 1,175,759 57,974
1975................................. 2,515,155 1,763,296 751,859 1,327,935 942,198 385,737 1,187,220 821,098 366,122 771,725 395,440 1,283,523 64,467
1976................................. 2,347,014 1,662,333 684,681 1,170,326 854,597 315,729 1,176,688 807,736 368,952 717,373 413,961 1,152,944 62,736
1977................................. 2,394,426 1,680,916 713,510 1,155,856 839,848 316,008 1,238,570 841,068 397,502 737,497 404,631 1,185,648 66,650
1978................................. 2,389,627 1,650,848 738,779 1,141,777 817,294 324,483 1,247,850 833,554 414,296 736,703 406,669 1,173,544 72,711
1979................................. 2,502,896 1,706,732 796,164 1,179,846 840,315 339,531 1,323,050 866,417 456,633 760,119 415,126 1,253,854 73,797
1980................................. 2,587,644 1,749,928 837,716 1,218,961 862,458 356,503 1,368,683 887,470 481,213 765,395 417,937 1,313,591 90,721 3
1981................................. 2,595,421 1,737,714 857,707 1,217,680 851,833 365,847 1,377,741 885,881 491,860 754,007 419,257 1,318,436 103,721 3
1982................................. 2,505,466 1,688,620 816,846 1,199,237 837,223 362,014 1,306,229 851,397 454,832 730,775 404,252 1,254,193 116,246 3
1983................................. 2,443,703 1,678,071 765,632 1,159,049 824,609 334,440 1,284,654 853,462 431,192 728,244 403,882 1,189,869 121,708
1984................................. 2,356,898 1,613,185 743,713 1,112,303 786,099 326,204 1,244,595 827,086 417,509 713,790 402,959 1,130,311 109,838
1985................................. 2,292,222 1,602,038 690,184 1,075,736 774,858 300,878 1,216,486 827,180 389,306 717,199 398,556 1,060,275 116,192
1986................................. 2,219,208 1,589,451 629,757 1,046,527 768,856 277,671 1,172,681 820,595 352,086 719,974 391,673 990,973 116,588
1987................................. 2,246,359 1,626,719 619,640 1,046,615 779,226 267,389 1,199,744 847,493 352,251 757,833 405,113 979,820 103,593
1988................................. 2,378,803 1,698,927 679,876 1,100,026 807,319 292,707 1,278,777 891,608 387,169 783,358 425,907 1,048,914 120,624
1989................................. 2,341,035 1,656,594 684,441 1,094,750 791,295 303,455 1,246,285 865,299 380,986 762,217 413,836 1,048,529 116,453
1990................................. 2,256,624 1,617,118 639,506 1,045,191 771,372 273,819 1,211,433 845,746 365,687 727,264 400,120 1,041,097 88,143
1991................................. 2,277,920 1,652,983 624,937 1,068,433 798,043 270,390 1,209,487 854,940 354,547 717,697 392,904 1,070,048 97,271
1992................................. 2,184,113 1,603,737 580,376 1,013,058 760,290 252,768 1,171,055 843,447 327,608 697,393 408,306 993,074 85,340
1993................................. 2,160,710 1,608,274 552,436 1,007,647 762,240 245,407 1,153,063 846,034 307,029 702,273 410,688 973,545 74,204
1994................................. 2,133,205 1,603,106 530,099 984,558 751,081 233,477 1,148,647 852,025 296,622 709,042 405,917 952,468 65,778
1995................................. 2,168,831 1,646,812 522,019 1,001,052 767,185 233,867 1,167,779 879,627 288,152 731,836 419,025 954,595 63,375
1996................................. 2,274,319 1,739,852 534,467 1,046,662 805,982 240,680 1,227,657 933,870 293,787 741,164 427,442 989,536 116,177
1997................................. 2,219,255 1,733,512 485,743 1,026,058 806,054 220,004 1,193,197 927,458 265,739 755,362 442,397 923,954 97,542
1998................................. 2,212,593 1,775,412 437,181 1,022,656 825,577 197,079 1,189,937 949,835 240,102 792,772 460,948 858,417 100,456
1999................................. 2,357,590 1,849,741 507,849 1,094,539 865,545 228,994 1,263,051 984,196 278,855 819,503 474,223 955,499 108,365
2000................................. 2,427,551 1,918,093 509,458 1,123,948 894,432 229,516 1,303,603 1,023,661 279,942 842,228 498,532 952,175 134,616
2001................................. 2,497,078 1,989,179 507,899 1,152,837 926,393 226,444 1,344,241 1,062,786 281,455 866,619 508,030 988,726 133,703
2002................................. 2,570,611 2,053,065 517,546 1,170,609 945,938 224,671 1,400,002 1,107,127 292,875 886,297 517,621 1,037,267 129,426
2003................................. 2,591,754 2,102,394 489,360 1,175,856 965,075 210,781 1,415,898 1,137,319 278,579 918,602 537,726 1,004,428 130,998
2004................................. 2,630,243 2,147,546 482,697 1,190,268 981,591 208,677 1,439,975 1,165,955 274,020 925,249 562,485 1,009,082 133,427
2005................................. 2,657,338 2,189,884 467,454 1,200,055 995,610 204,445 1,457,283 1,194,274 263,009 953,903 606,712 977,224 119,499
2006................................. 2,707,213 2,219,853 487,360 1,228,665 1,015,585 213,080 1,478,548 1,204,268 274,280 990,262 598,412 1,013,080 105,459
2007................................. 2,776,168 2,293,855 482,313 1,267,030 1,052,600 214,430 1,509,138 1,241,255 267,883 1,023,543 633,296 1,016,262 103,067
2008................................. 3,024,723 2,427,740 596,983 1,389,302 1,115,500 273,802 1,635,421 1,312,240 323,181 1,053,838 673,581 1,186,576 110,728
2009................................. 3,156,882 2,534,440 622,442 1,464,424 1,177,119 287,305 1,692,458 1,357,321 335,137 1,090,980 658,808 1,275,974 131,120
2010................................. 3,156,727 2,533,636 623,091 1,461,016 1,171,090 289,926 1,695,711 1,362,546 333,165 1,110,601 674,573 1,238,491 133,062
2011................................. 3,091,496 2,479,155 612,341 1,424,140 1,140,843 283,297 1,667,356 1,338,312 329,044 1,131,091 656,864 1,195,083 108,458
2012................................. 2,994,187 2,408,063 586,124 1,387,316 1,115,266 272,050 1,606,871 1,292,797 314,074 1,128,344 642,716 1,137,927 85,200
2013................................. 2,986,596 2,415,925 570,671 1,384,314 1,117,375 266,939 1,602,282 1,298,550 303,732 1,143,870 633,041 1,128,054 81,631
2014................................. 2,925,026 2,381,676 543,350 1,354,494 1,099,039 255,455 1,570,532 1,282,637 287,895 1,170,274 612,106 1,070,700 71,946
20154 ............................... 2,926,000 — — 1,341,000 — — 1,585,000 — — — — — —
20164 ............................... 2,958,000 — — 1,346,000 — — 1,612,000 — — — — — —
20174 ............................... 3,018,000 — — 1,365,000 — — 1,653,000 — — — — — —
20184 ............................... 3,079,000 — — 1,390,000 — — 1,689,000 — — — — — —
20194 ............................... 3,126,000 — — 1,410,000 — — 1,716,000 — — — — — —
20204 ............................... 3,162,000 — — 1,425,000 — — 1,737,000 — — — — — —
20214 ............................... 3,204,000 — — 1,443,000 — — 1,760,000 — — — — — —
20224 ............................... 3,243,000 — — 1,462,000 — — 1,782,000 — — — — — —
20234 ............................... 3,282,000 — — 1,479,000 — — 1,803,000 — — — — — —
20244 ............................... 3,318,000 — — 1,496,000 — — 1,823,000 — — — — — —
20254 ............................... 3,340,000 — — 1,508,000 — — 1,832,000 — — — — — —

—Not available. very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more 2-year colleges
1Excludes first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in occupational programs not creditable and excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees. Alaska and Hawaii
towards a bachelor’s degree. are included in all years. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
2
Data for 2-year branches of 4-year college systems are aggregated with the 4-year institutions. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Biennial
3
Large increases are due to the addition of schools accredited by the Accrediting Commission Survey of Education in the United States; Opening Fall Enrollment in Higher Education, 1955
of Career Schools and Colleges of Technology. through 1966; Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Col-
4
Projected. leges and Universities” surveys, 1967 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data
NOTE: Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for System (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:86–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through
degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees Spring 2014, Fall Enrollment component; and First-Time Freshmen Projection Model, 1980
and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting classification is through 2025. (This table was prepared April 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 65

Table 19. Fall enrollment of U.S. residents in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Selected years, 1976 through 2025
Enrollment (in thousands) Percentage distribution
Asian/Pacific Islander American Asian/Pacific Islander American
Indian/ Two or Indian/ Two or
Pacific Alaska more Pacific Alaska more
Year Total White Black Hispanic Total Asian Islander Native races Total White Black Hispanic Total Asian Islander Native races
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1976............................. 10,767 9,076 1,033 384 198 — — 76 — 100.0 84.3 9.6 3.6 1.8 — — 0.7 —
1980............................. 11,782 9,833 1,107 472 286 — — 84 — 100.0 83.5 9.4 4.0 2.4 — — 0.7 —
1990............................. 13,427 10,722 1,247 782 572 — — 103 — 100.0 79.9 9.3 5.8 4.3 — — 0.8 —
1994............................. 13,823 10,427 1,449 1,046 774 — — 127 — 100.0 75.4 10.5 7.6 5.6 — — 0.9 —
1995............................. 13,807 10,311 1,474 1,094 797 — — 131 — 100.0 74.7 10.7 7.9 5.8 — — 1.0 —
1996............................. 13,901 10,264 1,506 1,166 828 — — 138 — 100.0 73.8 10.8 8.4 6.0 — — 1.0 —
1997............................. 14,037 10,266 1,551 1,218 859 — — 142 — 100.0 73.1 11.0 8.7 6.1 — — 1.0 —
1998............................. 14,063 10,179 1,583 1,257 900 — — 144 — 100.0 72.4 11.3 8.9 6.4 — — 1.0 —
1999............................. 14,361 10,329 1,649 1,324 914 — — 146 — 100.0 71.9 11.5 9.2 6.4 — — 1.0 —
2000............................. 14,784 10,462 1,730 1,462 978 — — 151 — 100.0 70.8 11.7 9.9 6.6 — — 1.0 —
2001............................. 15,363 10,775 1,850 1,561 1,019 — — 158 — 100.0 70.1 12.0 10.2 6.6 — — 1.0 —
2002............................. 16,021 11,140 1,979 1,662 1,074 — — 166 — 100.0 69.5 12.4 10.4 6.7 — — 1.0 —
2003............................. 16,314 11,281 2,068 1,716 1,076 — — 173 — 100.0 69.1 12.7 10.5 6.6 — — 1.1 —
2004............................. 16,682 11,423 2,165 1,810 1,109 — — 176 — 100.0 68.5 13.0 10.8 6.6 — — 1.1 —
2005............................. 16,903 11,495 2,215 1,882 1,134 — — 176 — 100.0 68.0 13.1 11.1 6.7 — — 1.0 —
2006............................. 17,163 11,572 2,280 1,964 1,165 — — 181 — 100.0 67.4 13.3 11.4 6.8 — — 1.1 —
2007............................. 17,624 11,756 2,383 2,076 1,218 — — 190 — 100.0 66.7 13.5 11.8 6.9 — — 1.1 —
2008............................. 18,442 12,089 2,584 2,273 1,303 — — 193 — 100.0 65.5 14.0 12.3 7.1 — — 1.0 —
2009............................. 19,631 12,669 2,884 2,537 1,335 — — 206 — 100.0 64.5 14.7 12.9 6.8 — — 1.0 —
2010............................. 20,312 12,721 3,039 2,749 1,282 1,218 64 196 325 100.0 62.6 15.0 13.5 6.3 6.0 0.3 1.0 1.6
2011............................. 20,270 12,402 3,079 2,893 1,277 1,211 66 186 433 100.0 61.2 15.2 14.3 6.3 6.0 0.3 0.9 2.1
2012............................. 19,861 11,982 2,962 2,980 1,258 1,195 64 173 505 100.0 60.3 14.9 15.0 6.3 6.0 0.3 0.9 2.5
2013............................. 19,535 11,591 2,872 3,091 1,260 1,199 61 163 559 100.0 59.3 14.7 15.8 6.4 6.1 0.3 0.8 2.9
2014............................. 19,288 11,237 2,792 3,192 1,272 1,214 59 153 642 100.0 58.3 14.5 16.5 6.6 6.3 0.3 0.8 3.3
20151 ........................... 19,332 11,195 2,853 3,232 1,238 — — 150 665 100.0 57.9 14.8 16.7 6.4 — — 0.8 3.4
20161 ........................... 19,542 11,177 2,915 3,359 1,255 — — 149 686 100.0 57.2 14.9 17.2 6.4 — — 0.8 3.5
20171 ........................... 19,936 11,300 3,009 3,484 1,286 — — 150 707 100.0 56.7 15.1 17.5 6.5 — — 0.8 3.5
20181 ........................... 20,310 11,425 3,087 3,603 1,316 — — 151 728 100.0 56.3 15.2 17.7 6.5 — — 0.7 3.6
20191 ........................... 20,588 11,498 3,145 3,704 1,341 — — 151 748 100.0 55.8 15.3 18.0 6.5 — — 0.7 3.6
20201 ........................... 20,781 11,517 3,195 3,793 1,360 — — 151 765 100.0 55.4 15.4 18.3 6.5 — — 0.7 3.7
20211 ........................... 21,018 11,557 3,251 3,888 1,386 — — 152 785 100.0 55.0 15.5 18.5 6.6 — — 0.7 3.7
20221 ........................... 21,232 11,586 3,297 3,977 1,412 — — 152 807 100.0 54.6 15.5 18.7 6.7 — — 0.7 3.8
20231 ........................... 21,433 11,602 3,346 4,068 1,436 — — 152 830 100.0 54.1 15.6 19.0 6.7 — — 0.7 3.9
20241 ........................... 21,604 11,598 3,388 4,154 1,458 — — 152 854 100.0 53.7 15.7 19.2 6.7 — — 0.7 4.0
20251 ........................... 21,668 11,539 3,410 4,217 1,472 — — 151 880 100.0 53.3 15.7 19.5 6.8 — — 0.7 4.1

—Not available. available upon which to base a projections model. Detail may not sum to totals because of
1
Projected. rounding. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher
Title IV federal financial aid programs. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnic- Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universi-
ity. Prior to 2010, institutions were not required to report separate data on Asians, Pacific ties” surveys, 1976 and 1980; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS),
Islanders, and students of Two or more races. Projections for Asian, Pacific Islander, and “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:90–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring 2015, Fall
Two or more races enrollment are not available due to the limited amount of historical data Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity
Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared March 2016.)

66 Reference Tables
Table 20. Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control and level of institution: 1967 through 2025
Private institutions
All institutions Public institutions 4-year 2-year
Year Total 4-year 2-year Total 4-year 2-year Total Total Nonprofit For-profit Total Nonprofit For-profit
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1967............................... 5,499,360 4,448,302 1,051,058 3,777,701 2,850,432 927,269 1,721,659 1,597,870 — — 123,789 — —
1968............................... 5,977,768 4,729,522 1,248,246 4,248,639 3,128,057 1,120,582 1,729,129 1,601,465 — — 127,664 — —
1969............................... 6,333,357 4,899,034 1,434,323 4,577,353 3,259,323 1,318,030 1,756,004 1,639,711 — — 116,293 — —
1970............................... 6,737,819 5,145,422 1,592,397 4,953,144 3,468,569 1,484,575 1,784,675 1,676,853 — — 107,822 — —
1971............................... 7,148,558 5,357,647 1,790,911 5,344,402 3,660,626 1,683,776 1,804,156 1,697,021 — — 107,135 — —
1972............................... 7,253,757 5,406,833 1,846,924 5,452,854 3,706,238 1,746,616 1,800,903 1,700,595 — — 100,308 — —
1973............................... 7,453,463 5,439,230 2,014,233 5,629,563 3,721,037 1,908,526 1,823,900 1,718,193 — — 105,707 — —
1974............................... 7,805,452 5,606,247 2,199,205 5,944,799 3,847,543 2,097,256 1,860,653 1,758,704 — — 101,949 — —
1975............................... 8,479,698 5,900,408 2,579,290 6,522,319 4,056,502 2,465,817 1,957,379 1,843,906 — — 113,473 — —
1976............................... 8,312,502 5,848,001 2,464,501 6,349,903 3,998,450 2,351,453 1,962,599 1,849,551 — — 113,048 — —
1977............................... 8,415,339 5,935,076 2,480,263 6,396,476 4,039,071 2,357,405 2,018,863 1,896,005 — — 122,858 — —
1978............................... 8,348,482 5,932,357 2,416,125 6,279,199 3,996,126 2,283,073 2,069,283 1,936,231 — — 133,052 — —
1979............................... 8,487,317 6,016,072 2,471,245 6,392,617 4,059,304 2,333,313 2,094,700 1,956,768 — — 137,932 — —
1980............................... 8,819,013 6,161,372 2,657,641 6,642,294 4,158,267 2,484,027 2,176,719 2,003,105 — — 173,614 1 — —
1981............................... 9,014,521 6,249,847 2,764,674 6,781,300 4,208,506 2,572,794 2,233,221 2,041,341 — — 191,880 1 — —
1982............................... 9,091,648 6,248,923 2,842,725 6,850,589 4,220,648 2,629,941 2,241,059 2,028,275 — — 212,784 1 — —
1983............................... 9,166,398 6,325,222 2,841,176 6,881,479 4,265,807 2,615,672 2,284,919 2,059,415 — — 225,504 — —
1984............................... 8,951,695 6,292,711 2,658,984 6,684,664 4,237,895 2,446,769 2,267,031 2,054,816 — — 212,215 — —
1985............................... 8,943,433 6,294,339 2,649,094 6,667,781 4,239,622 2,428,159 2,275,652 2,054,717 — — 220,935 — —
1986............................... 9,064,165 6,360,325 2,703,842 6,778,045 4,295,494 2,482,551 2,286,122 2,064,831 — — 221,291 2 — —
1987............................... 9,229,736 6,486,504 2,743,230 6,937,690 4,395,728 2,541,961 2,292,045 2,090,776 — — 201,269 2 — —
1988............................... 9,464,271 6,664,146 2,800,125 7,096,905 4,505,774 2,591,131 2,367,366 2,158,372 — — 208,994 — —
1989............................... 9,780,881 6,813,602 2,967,279 7,371,590 4,619,828 2,751,762 2,409,291 2,193,774 — — 215,517 — —
1990............................... 9,983,436 6,968,008 3,015,428 7,557,982 4,740,049 2,817,933 2,425,454 2,227,959 2,177,668 50,291 197,495 72,785 124,710
1991............................... 10,360,606 7,081,454 3,279,152 7,862,845 4,795,704 3,067,141 2,497,761 2,285,750 2,223,463 62,287 212,011 72,545 139,466
1992............................... 10,436,776 7,129,379 3,307,397 7,911,701 4,797,884 3,113,817 2,525,075 2,331,495 2,267,373 64,122 193,580 66,647 126,933
1993............................... 10,351,415 7,120,921 3,230,494 7,812,394 4,765,983 3,046,411 2,539,021 2,354,938 2,282,643 72,295 184,083 70,469 113,614
1994............................... 10,348,072 7,137,341 3,210,731 7,784,396 4,749,524 3,034,872 2,563,676 2,387,817 2,301,063 86,754 175,859 69,578 106,281
1995............................... 10,334,956 7,172,844 3,162,112 7,751,815 4,757,223 2,994,592 2,583,141 2,415,621 2,328,730 86,891 167,520 62,416 105,104
1996............................... 10,481,886 7,234,541 3,247,345 7,794,895 4,767,117 3,027,778 2,686,991 2,467,424 2,353,561 113,863 219,567 63,954 155,613
1997............................... 10,615,028 7,338,794 3,276,234 7,869,764 4,813,849 3,055,915 2,745,264 2,524,945 2,389,627 135,318 220,319 61,761 158,558
1998............................... 10,698,775 7,467,828 3,230,947 7,880,135 4,868,857 3,011,278 2,818,640 2,598,971 2,436,188 162,783 219,669 56,834 162,835
1999............................... 10,974,519 7,634,247 3,340,272 8,059,240 4,949,851 3,109,389 2,915,279 2,684,396 2,488,140 196,256 230,883 53,956 176,927
2000............................... 11,267,025 7,795,139 3,471,886 8,266,932 5,025,588 3,241,344 3,000,093 2,769,551 2,549,676 219,875 230,542 51,503 179,039
2001............................... 11,765,945 8,087,980 3,677,965 8,639,154 5,194,035 3,445,119 3,126,791 2,893,945 2,612,833 281,112 232,846 41,037 191,809
2002............................... 12,331,319 8,439,064 3,892,255 9,061,411 5,406,283 3,655,128 3,269,908 3,032,781 2,699,702 333,079 237,127 40,110 197,017
2003............................... 12,687,597 8,744,188 3,943,409 9,240,724 5,557,680 3,683,044 3,446,873 3,186,508 2,776,850 409,658 260,365 36,815 223,550
2004............................... 13,000,994 9,018,024 3,982,970 9,348,081 5,640,650 3,707,431 3,652,913 3,377,374 2,837,251 540,123 275,539 34,202 241,337
2005............................... 13,200,790 9,261,634 3,939,156 9,390,216 5,728,327 3,661,889 3,810,574 3,533,307 2,878,354 654,953 277,267 34,729 242,538
2006............................... 13,403,097 9,456,166 3,946,931 9,503,558 5,824,768 3,678,790 3,899,539 3,631,398 2,936,172 695,226 268,141 31,203 236,938
2007............................... 13,782,702 9,769,560 4,013,142 9,739,709 5,994,230 3,745,479 4,042,993 3,775,330 2,993,729 781,601 267,663 26,134 241,529
2008............................... 14,394,238 10,169,454 4,224,784 10,061,812 6,139,525 3,922,287 4,332,426 4,029,929 3,060,308 969,621 302,497 28,065 274,432
2009............................... 15,379,473 10,695,816 4,683,657 10,746,637 6,452,414 4,294,223 4,632,836 4,243,402 3,153,294 1,090,108 389,434 27,964 361,470
2010............................... 15,947,474 11,129,239 4,818,235 11,018,756 6,635,799 4,382,957 4,928,718 4,493,440 3,235,149 1,258,291 435,278 26,920 408,358
2011............................... 15,892,792 11,261,845 4,630,947 10,954,754 6,734,116 4,220,638 4,938,038 4,527,729 3,285,711 1,242,018 410,309 34,267 376,042
2012............................... 15,593,434 11,229,774 4,363,660 10,781,798 6,764,184 4,017,614 4,811,636 4,465,590 3,309,242 1,156,348 346,046 32,684 313,362
2013............................... 15,409,944 11,185,987 4,223,957 10,695,774 6,790,901 3,904,873 4,714,170 4,395,086 3,341,575 1,053,511 319,084 27,290 291,794
2014............................... 15,262,196 11,237,953 4,024,243 10,624,769 6,892,523 3,732,246 4,637,427 4,345,430 3,362,197 983,233 291,997 25,797 266,200
20153 ............................. 15,296,000 10,939,000 4,357,000 10,727,000 6,695,000 4,032,000 4,569,000 4,244,000 — — 325,000 — —
20163 ............................. 15,494,000 11,082,000 4,412,000 10,860,000 6,778,000 4,082,000 4,634,000 4,304,000 — — 330,000 — —
20173 ............................. 15,845,000 11,334,000 4,511,000 11,100,000 6,927,000 4,173,000 4,745,000 4,407,000 — — 338,000 — —
20183 ............................. 16,173,000 11,565,000 4,608,000 11,328,000 7,067,000 4,262,000 4,845,000 4,498,000 — — 346,000 — —
20193 ............................. 16,422,000 11,741,000 4,681,000 11,503,000 7,173,000 4,330,000 4,920,000 4,568,000 — — 352,000 — —
20203 ............................. 16,610,000 11,880,000 4,730,000 11,631,000 7,257,000 4,375,000 4,979,000 4,624,000 — — 355,000 — —
20213 ............................. 16,835,000 12,044,000 4,791,000 11,786,000 7,355,000 4,432,000 5,049,000 4,689,000 — — 360,000 — —
20223 ............................. 17,047,000 12,193,000 4,855,000 11,934,000 7,444,000 4,490,000 5,113,000 4,749,000 — — 365,000 — —
20233 ............................. 17,263,000 12,346,000 4,917,000 12,084,000 7,537,000 4,547,000 5,179,000 4,810,000 — — 370,000 — —
20243 ............................. 17,449,000 12,478,000 4,972,000 12,215,000 7,617,000 4,598,000 5,234,000 4,861,000 — — 374,000 — —
20253 ............................. 17,538,000 12,535,000 5,003,000 12,281,000 7,653,000 4,628,000 5,257,000 4,882,000 — — 375,000 — —

—Not available. classification is very similar to the earlier higher education classification, but it includes more
1Large increases are due to the addition of schools accredited by the Accrediting Commis-
2-year colleges and excludes a few higher education institutions that did not grant degrees.
sion of Career Schools and Colleges of Technology. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
2Because of imputation techniques, data are not consistent with figures for other years.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Higher
3
Projected. Education General Information Survey (HEGIS), “Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universi-
NOTE: Full-time-equivalent enrollment is the full-time enrollment, plus the full-time equivalent ties” surveys, 1967 through 1985; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
of the part-time students. Data through 1995 are for institutions of higher education, while (IPEDS), “Fall Enrollment Survey” (IPEDS-EF:86–99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Spring
later data are for degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or 2015, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection
higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. The degree-granting Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared March 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 67

Table 21. Degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869–70 through 2025–26
Associate’s degrees Bachelor’s degrees Master’s degrees Doctor’s degrees1
Percent Percent Percent Percent
Year Total Males Females female Total Males Females female Total Males Females female Total Males Females female
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1869–70.................. — — — — 9,371 2 7,993 2 1,378 2 14.7 0 0 0 — 1 1 0 0.0
1879–80.................. — — — — 12,896 2 10,411 2 2,485 2 19.3 879 868 11 1.3 54 51 3 5.6
1889–90.................. — — — — 15,539 2 12,857 2 2,682 2 17.3 1,015 821 194 19.1 149 147 2 1.3
1899–1900.............. — — — — 27,410 2 22,173 2 5,237 2 19.1 1,583 1,280 303 19.1 382 359 23 6.0
1909–10.................. — — — — 37,199 2 28,762 2 8,437 2 22.7 2,113 1,555 558 26.4 443 399 44 9.9
1919–20.................. — — — — 48,622 2 31,980 2 16,642 2 34.2 4,279 2,985 1,294 30.2 615 522 93 15.1
1929–30.................. — — — — 122,484 2 73,615 2 48,869 2 39.9 14,969 8,925 6,044 40.4 2,299 1,946 353 15.4
1939–40.................. — — — — 186,500 2 109,546 2 76,954 2 41.3 26,731 16,508 10,223 38.2 3,290 2,861 429 13.0
1949–50.................. — — — — 432,058 2 328,841 2 103,217 2 23.9 58,183 41,220 16,963 29.2 6,420 5,804 616 9.6
1959–60.................. — — — — 392,440 2 254,063 2 138,377 2 35.3 74,435 50,898 23,537 31.6 9,829 8,801 1,028 10.5
1969–70.................. 206,023 117,432 88,591 43.0 792,316 451,097 341,219 43.1 213,589 130,799 82,790 38.8 59,486 53,792 5,694 9.6
1970–71.................. 252,311 144,144 108,167 42.9 839,730 475,594 364,136 43.4 235,564 143,083 92,481 39.3 64,998 58,137 6,861 10.6
1971–72.................. 292,014 166,227 125,787 43.1 887,273 500,590 386,683 43.6 257,201 155,010 102,191 39.7 71,206 63,353 7,853 11.0
1972–73.................. 316,174 175,413 140,761 44.5 922,362 518,191 404,171 43.8 268,654 159,569 109,085 40.6 79,512 69,959 9,553 12.0
1973–74.................. 343,924 188,591 155,333 45.2 945,776 527,313 418,463 44.2 282,074 162,606 119,468 42.4 82,591 71,131 11,460 13.9
1974–75.................. 360,171 191,017 169,154 47.0 922,933 504,841 418,092 45.3 297,545 166,318 131,227 44.1 84,904 71,025 13,879 16.3
1975–76.................. 391,454 209,996 181,458 46.4 925,746 504,925 420,821 45.5 317,477 172,519 144,958 45.7 91,007 73,888 17,119 18.8
1976–77.................. 406,377 210,842 195,535 48.1 919,549 495,545 424,004 46.1 323,025 173,090 149,935 46.4 91,730 72,209 19,521 21.3
1977–78.................. 412,246 204,718 207,528 50.3 921,204 487,347 433,857 47.1 317,987 166,857 151,130 47.5 92,345 70,283 22,062 23.9
1978–79.................. 402,702 192,091 210,611 52.3 921,390 477,344 444,046 48.2 307,686 159,111 148,575 48.3 94,971 70,452 24,519 25.8
1979–80.................. 400,910 183,737 217,173 54.2 929,417 473,611 455,806 49.0 305,196 156,882 148,314 48.6 95,631 69,526 26,105 27.3
1980–81.................. 416,377 188,638 227,739 54.7 935,140 469,883 465,257 49.8 302,637 152,979 149,658 49.5 98,016 69,567 28,449 29.0
1981–82.................. 434,526 196,944 237,582 54.7 952,998 473,364 479,634 50.3 302,447 151,349 151,098 50.0 97,838 68,630 29,208 29.9
1982–83.................. 449,620 203,991 245,629 54.6 969,510 479,140 490,370 50.6 296,415 150,092 146,323 49.4 99,335 67,757 31,578 31.8
1983–84.................. 452,240 202,704 249,536 55.2 974,309 482,319 491,990 50.5 291,141 149,268 141,873 48.7 100,799 67,769 33,030 32.8
1984–85.................. 454,712 202,932 251,780 55.4 979,477 482,528 496,949 50.7 293,472 149,276 144,196 49.1 100,785 66,269 34,516 34.2
1985–86.................. 446,047 196,166 249,881 56.0 987,823 485,923 501,900 50.8 295,850 149,373 146,477 49.5 100,280 65,215 35,065 35.0
1986–87.................. 436,304 190,839 245,465 56.3 991,264 480,782 510,482 51.5 296,530 147,063 149,467 50.4 98,477 62,790 35,687 36.2
1987–88.................. 435,085 190,047 245,038 56.3 994,829 477,203 517,626 52.0 305,783 150,243 155,540 50.9 99,139 63,019 36,120 36.4
1988–89.................. 436,764 186,316 250,448 57.3 1,018,755 483,346 535,409 52.6 316,626 153,993 162,633 51.4 100,571 63,055 37,516 37.3
1989–90.................. 455,102 191,195 263,907 58.0 1,051,344 491,696 559,648 53.2 330,152 158,052 172,100 52.1 103,508 63,963 39,545 38.2
1990–91.................. 481,720 198,634 283,086 58.8 1,094,538 504,045 590,493 53.9 342,863 160,842 182,021 53.1 105,547 64,242 41,305 39.1
1991–92.................. 504,231 207,481 296,750 58.9 1,136,553 520,811 615,742 54.2 358,089 165,867 192,222 53.7 109,554 66,603 42,951 39.2
1992–93.................. 514,756 211,964 302,792 58.8 1,165,178 532,881 632,297 54.3 375,032 173,354 201,678 53.8 112,072 67,130 44,942 40.1
1993–94.................. 530,632 215,261 315,371 59.4 1,169,275 532,422 636,853 54.5 393,037 180,571 212,466 54.1 112,636 66,773 45,863 40.7
1994–95.................. 539,691 218,352 321,339 59.5 1,160,134 526,131 634,003 54.6 403,609 183,043 220,566 54.6 114,266 67,324 46,942 41.1
1995–96.................. 555,216 219,514 335,702 60.5 1,164,792 522,454 642,338 55.1 412,180 183,481 228,699 55.5 115,507 67,189 48,318 41.8
1996–97.................. 571,226 223,948 347,278 60.8 1,172,879 520,515 652,364 55.6 425,260 185,270 239,990 56.4 118,747 68,387 50,360 42.4
1997–98.................. 558,555 217,613 340,942 61.0 1,184,406 519,956 664,450 56.1 436,037 188,718 247,319 56.7 118,735 67,232 51,503 43.4
1998–99.................. 564,984 220,508 344,476 61.0 1,202,239 519,961 682,278 56.8 446,038 190,230 255,808 57.4 116,700 65,340 51,360 44.0
1999–2000.............. 564,933 224,721 340,212 60.2 1,237,875 530,367 707,508 57.2 463,185 196,129 267,056 57.7 118,736 64,930 53,806 45.3
2000–01.................. 578,865 231,645 347,220 60.0 1,244,171 531,840 712,331 57.3 473,502 197,770 275,732 58.2 119,585 64,171 55,414 46.3
2001–02.................. 595,133 238,109 357,024 60.0 1,291,900 549,816 742,084 57.4 487,313 202,604 284,709 58.4 119,663 62,731 56,932 47.6
2002–03.................. 634,016 253,451 380,565 60.0 1,348,811 573,258 775,553 57.5 518,699 215,172 303,527 58.5 121,579 62,730 58,849 48.4
2003–04.................. 665,301 260,033 405,268 60.9 1,399,542 595,425 804,117 57.5 564,272 233,056 331,216 58.7 126,087 63,981 62,106 49.3
2004–05.................. 696,660 267,536 429,124 61.6 1,439,264 613,000 826,264 57.4 580,151 237,155 342,996 59.1 134,387 67,257 67,130 50.0
2005–06.................. 713,066 270,095 442,971 62.1 1,485,242 630,600 854,642 57.5 599,731 241,656 358,075 59.7 138,056 68,912 69,144 50.1
2006–07.................. 728,114 275,187 452,927 62.2 1,524,092 649,570 874,522 57.4 610,597 242,189 368,408 60.3 144,690 71,308 73,382 50.7
2007–08.................. 750,164 282,521 467,643 62.3 1,563,069 667,928 895,141 57.3 630,666 250,169 380,497 60.3 149,378 73,453 75,925 50.8
2008–09.................. 787,243 298,066 489,177 62.1 1,601,399 685,422 915,977 57.2 662,082 263,515 398,567 60.2 154,564 75,674 78,890 51.0
2009–10.................. 848,856 322,747 526,109 62.0 1,649,919 706,660 943,259 57.2 693,313 275,317 417,996 60.3 158,590 76,610 81,980 51.7
2010–11.................. 943,506 361,408 582,098 61.7 1,716,053 734,159 981,894 57.2 730,922 291,680 439,242 60.1 163,827 79,672 84,155 51.4
2011–12.................. 1,021,718 393,479 628,239 61.5 1,792,163 765,772 1,026,391 57.3 755,967 302,484 453,483 60.0 170,217 82,670 87,547 51.4
2012–13.................. 1,007,427 389,195 618,232 61.4 1,840,381 787,408 1,052,973 57.2 751,718 301,552 450,166 59.9 175,026 85,080 89,946 51.4
2013–14.................. 1,003,364 390,805 612,559 61.1 1,869,814 801,692 1,068,122 57.1 754,475 302,807 451,668 59.9 177,580 85,587 91,993 51.8
2014–153 ................ 979,000 379,000 600,000 61.3 1,868,000 802,000 1,066,000 57.1 763,000 308,000 454,000 59.6 178,000 85,000 92,000 51.9
2015–163 ................ 999,000 389,000 610,000 61.0 1,853,000 794,000 1,058,000 57.1 773,000 319,000 454,000 58.7 179,000 86,000 93,000 52.1
2016–173 ................ 1,018,000 385,000 633,000 62.1 1,863,000 796,000 1,067,000 57.3 798,000 333,000 465,000 58.3 181,000 86,000 94,000 52.2
2017–183 ................ 1,074,000 401,000 673,000 62.7 1,830,000 780,000 1,050,000 57.4 823,000 342,000 481,000 58.5 183,000 89,000 95,000 51.7
2018–193 ................ 1,104,000 407,000 697,000 63.1 1,854,000 785,000 1,069,000 57.6 846,000 352,000 494,000 58.4 188,000 91,000 97,000 51.7
2019–203 ................ 1,135,000 414,000 721,000 63.5 1,888,000 795,000 1,093,000 57.9 867,000 362,000 505,000 58.3 192,000 92,000 100,000 52.0
2020–213 ................ 1,162,000 420,000 742,000 63.8 1,920,000 807,000 1,113,000 58.0 887,000 370,000 517,000 58.3 195,000 94,000 102,000 52.0
2021–223 ................ 1,188,000 427,000 761,000 64.1 1,947,000 817,000 1,130,000 58.0 908,000 378,000 529,000 58.3 199,000 95,000 103,000 52.1
2022–233 ................ 1,213,000 432,000 780,000 64.3 1,968,000 825,000 1,144,000 58.1 929,000 387,000 542,000 58.3 201,000 96,000 105,000 52.2
2023–243 ................ 1,240,000 439,000 801,000 64.6 1,993,000 834,000 1,159,000 58.2 950,000 396,000 554,000 58.3 204,000 97,000 107,000 52.3
2024–253 ................ 1,266,000 445,000 821,000 64.9 2,015,000 843,000 1,173,000 58.2 968,000 403,000 565,000 58.4 207,000 99,000 108,000 52.4
2025–263 ................ 1,290,000 451,000 840,000 65.1 2,037,000 851,000 1,187,000 58.2 982,000 408,000 573,000 58.4 209,000 100,000 110,000 52.4

—Not available. and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from
1Includes Ph.D., Ed.D., and comparable degrees at the doctoral level. Includes most degrees
previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
formerly classified as first-professional, such as M.D., D.D.S., and law degrees. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Earned
2Includes some degrees classified as master’s or doctor’s degrees in later years.
Degrees Conferred, 1869–70 through 1964–65; Higher Education General Information Survey
3Projected. (HEGIS), “Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred” surveys, 1965–66 through 1985–86;
NOTE: Data through 1994–95 are for institutions of higher education, while later data are for Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions Survey” (IPEDS-
degree-granting institutions. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees C:87–99); IPEDS Fall 2000 through Fall 2014, Completions component; and Degrees Con-
ferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2025–26. (This table was prepared March 2016.)

68 Reference Tables
Technical Appendixes

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 69

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 Appendix A
Introduction to Projection Methodology

A.0. INTRODUCTION TO PROJECTION METHODOLOGY

Content of appendix A
Since its inception in 1964, the Projections of Education Statistics series has been providing projections of key education
statistics to policymakers, educators, researchers, the press, and the general public. This edition of Projections of Education
Statistics is the 44th in the series.

Appendix A contains this introduction, which provides a general overview of the projection methodology, as well as six
additional sections that discuss the specific methodology for the different statistics projected:

» A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology;

» A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment;
» A.2. Elementary and Secondary Teachers;
» A.3. High School Graduates;
» A.4. Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education;
» A.5. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions; and
» A.6. Postsecondary Degrees Conferred.

This introduction

» outlines the two major techniques used to make the projections;

» summarizes key demographic and economic assumptions underlying the projections;
» examines the accuracy of the projections; and
» introduces the subsequent sections of appendix A.

Projection techniques
Two main projection techniques were used to develop the projections presented in this publication:

» Exponential smoothing was the technique used in the projections of elementary and secondary enrollments and high
school graduates. This technique also played a role in the projections of teachers at the elementary and secondary level,
as well as enrollments and degrees conferred at the postsecondary level.
» Multiple linear regression was the primary technique used in the projections of teachers and expenditures at the
elementary and secondary level, as well as enrollments and degrees conferred at the postsecondary level.

Exponential smoothing
Two different types of exponential smoothing, single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing, were used in
producing the projections presented in this publication.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 71

Single exponential smoothing was used when the historical data had a basically horizontal pattern. Single exponential
smoothing produces a single forecast for all years in the forecast period. In developing projections of elementary and
secondary enrollments, for example, the rate at which students progress from one particular grade to the next (e.g., from
grade 2 to grade 3) was projected using single exponential smoothing. Thus, this percentage was assumed to be constant over
the forecast period.

In general, exponential smoothing places more weight on recent observations than on earlier ones. The weights for
observations decrease exponentially as one moves further into the past. As a result, the older data have less influence on the
projections. The rate at which the weights of older observations decrease is determined by the smoothing constant.

When using single exponential smoothing for a time series, Pt, a smoothed series, P,̂ is computed recursively by evaluating

P̂ t = ∝ Pt+(1 ― ∝) P̂ t-1
where 0< ∝ ≤1 is the smoothing constant.

By repeated substitution, we can rewrite the equation as

t-1
P̂ t = ∝ ∑(1 ― ∝)s Pt-s
s=0

where time, s, goes from the first period in the time series, 0, to time period t-1.

The forecasts are constant for all years in the forecast period. The constant equals

P̂ T+k = P̂ T

where T is the last year of actual data and k is the kth year in the forecast period where k > 0.

These equations illustrate that the projection is a weighted average based on exponentially decreasing weights. For higher
smoothing constants, weights for earlier observations decrease more rapidly than for lower smoothing constants.

For each of the approximately 1,200 single exponential smoothing equations in this edition of Projections of Education
Statistics, a smoothing constant was individually chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors for that equation. The
smoothing constants used to produce the projections in this report ranged from 0.001 to 0.999.

Double exponential smoothing is an extension of single exponential smoothing that allows the forecasting of data with
trends. It produces different forecasts for different years in the forecast period. Double exponential smoothing with two
smoothing constants was used to forecast the number of doctor’s degrees awarded to men and women.

The smoothing forecast using double exponential smoothing is found using the three equations:
P̂ t+k = at + btk

at = ∝ Pt + (1 ― ∝) (at―1 + bt―1)

bt = β (at ― at―1) + (1 ― β) bt―1

where at denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, bt denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, and 0
< ∝, β < 1 are the smoothing constants.

Forecasts from double smoothing are computed as

P̂ T+k = aT + bTk

where T is the last year of actual data and k is the kth year in the forecast period where k > 0. The last expression shows that
forecasts from double smoothing lie on a linear trend with intercept aT and slope bT. Single exponential smoothing can be
viewed as a special case of double exponential smoothing where the impact that time has on the forecasts has been eliminated
(i.e., requiring the slope term bt to equal 0.0).

72 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

The smoothing constants for each of the two double exponential smoothing equations used for this report were selected using a
search algorithm that finds the pair of smoothing constants that together minimize the sum of forecast errors for their equation.

Beginning with the Projections of Education Statistics to 2020, each smoothing constant was chosen separately. In earlier editions,
all the smoothing constants had been set to 0.4. Also beginning with that edition, two smoothing constants, rather than one,
were used for double exponential smoothing.

Multiple linear regression

Multiple linear regression was used in cases where a strong relationship exists between the variable being projected
(the dependent variable) and independent variables. This technique can be used only when accurate data and reliable
projections of the independent variables are available. Key independent variables for this publication include demographic
and economic factors. For example, current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education are related to
economic factors such as disposable income and education revenues from state sources. The sources of the demographic
and economic projections used for this publication are discussed below, under “Assumptions.”

The equations in this appendix should be viewed as forecasting rather than structural equations. That is, the equations are
intended only to project values for the dependent variables, not to reflect all elements of underlying social, political, and
economic structures. Lack of available data precluded the building of large-scale structural models. The particular equations
shown were selected on the basis of their statistical properties, such as coefficients of determination (R²s), the t-statistics of
the coefficients, the Durbin-Watson statistic, the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, and residual plots.

The functional form primarily used is the multiplicative model. When used with two independent variables, this model
takes the form:
b b
Y = a ∙ X1 ∙ X 2
1 2

This equation can easily be transformed into the linear form by taking the natural log (ln) of both sides of the equation:

ln(Y ) = ln(a) + b1lnX1 + b2 lnX2

One property of this model is that the coefficient of an independent variable shows how responsive in percentage terms the
dependent variable is to a 1 percent change in that independent variable (also called the elasticity). For example, a 1 percent
change in X1 in the above equation would lead to a b1 percent change in Y.

Assumptions
All projections are based on underlying assumptions, and these assumptions determine projection results to a large extent. It is
important that users of projections understand the assumptions to determine the acceptability of projected time series for their
purposes. All the projections in this publication are to some extent dependent on demographic and/or economic assumptions.

Demographic assumptions
Many of the projections in this publication are demographically based on the 2014 National Population Projections
(December 2014) produced by the U.S. Census Bureau and the IHS U.S. Regional Economic Service, Population Projections,
December 2015 produced by the economic consulting firm IHS Global Inc.

The two sets of population projections are produced using cohort-component models. In order for the national-level population
projections by age, sex, and race/ethnicity to be consistent with the most recent historical estimates released by the Census Bureau,
the projections were ratio-adjusted by applying the ratio of the last historical estimate to the corresponding projections year to the
projections for each age, sex, and race/ethnicity combination. This allows for a consistent set of historical estimates and projections.
For more information on the methodology used for Census Bureau population projections, see appendix C, Data Sources.

The enrollment projections in this publication depend on population projections for the various age groups that attend
school. The future fertility rate assumption (along with corresponding projections of female populations) determines
projections of the number of births, a key factor for population projections. The fertility rate assumption plays a major role
in determining population projections for the age groups enrolled in nursery school, kindergarten, and elementary grades.
The effects of the fertility rate assumption are more pronounced toward the end of the forecast period, while immigration
assumptions affect all years. For enrollments in secondary grades and college, the fertility rate assumption is of no
consequence, since all the population cohorts for these enrollment ranges have already been born.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 73

Economic assumptions
Various economic variables are used in the forecasting models for numbers of elementary and secondary teachers, public
elementary and secondary school expenditures, and postsecondary enrollment.

Projections of the economic variables were from the trend scenario of the “U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model 4th Quarter
2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections” developed by the IHS Global Inc. This set of projections was IHS Global Inc.’s most recent
set at the time the education projections in this report were produced. The trend scenario depicts a mean of possible paths that the
economy could take over the forecast period, barring major shocks. The economy, in this scenario, evolves smoothly, without major
fluctuations.

More information about specific assumptions

For details about the primary assumptions used in this edition of Projections of Education Statistics, see table A-1 on page 75.

Accuracy of the projections

Projections of time series usually differ from the final reported data due to errors from many sources. This is because of
the inherent nature of the statistical universe from which the basic data are obtained and the properties of projection
methodologies, which depend on the validity of many assumptions.

The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is one way to express the forecast accuracy of past projections. This measure
expresses the average absolute value of errors over past projections in percentage terms. For example, an analysis of projection
errors over the past 32 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the MAPEs for public school enrollment
in grades preK–12 for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years were 0.3, 0.5, 1.2, and 2.3 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out
projection, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 0.3 percent of the actual value, on average.

For a list of MAPEs for selected national statistics in this publication, see table A-2 on page 76. Sections A.1 through A.6
each contain at least one text table (tables A through J) that presents the MAPEs for the key national statistics of that section.
Each text table appears directly after the discussion of accuracy of that section’s national projections. For a list of MAPEs by
state and region for public elementary and secondary enrollment, see tables A-7 through A-9 on pages 85–87 and for a list of
MAPEs by state and region for the number of high school graduates in public schools, see table A-10 on page 93.

Tables A-3 and A-4 present an example of how the MAPEs were constructed using actual values for total enrollment in degree-
granting postsecondary institutions projections for schools years 2011–12 through 2014–15 and enrollment projections from
the last four editions of Projections of Education Statistics. The top two panels of table A-3 shows the actual values for school
years 2011–12 through 2014–15 and enrollment projections for each year from Projections of Education Statistics to 2021
with the number of projections generally decreasing by one for each subsequent edition. The bottom panel of table A-3 shows
the percentage differences between the actual values and the projected values. For example, the projected value for 2011–12
presented in Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 was 1.4 percent higher than the actual value for that year.

The top panel of table A-4 shows the absolute value of the percent differences from table A-3 arranged by lead time rather than
year. For example, in the Projections of Education Statistics to 2021, the last year of actual data reported was 2011–12 and thus
the lead time for the projection of 2011–12 data was 1 year. Thus, the 1.4 appearing in the 2011–12 column of Table A-3 for
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 appears in the column for lead times of 1 year in Table A-4, indicating that projection
of the one-year-out forecast from Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 differed by 1.4 percent in absolute terms from its
actual value. The MAPEs for each lead time shown in the bottom panel of table A-4 were calculated by computing the average
of the absolute values of the percentage differences for that lead time. For example, actual values are available to calculate the
absolute values of the percentage differences for a lead time of 2 years for the first three editions of the Projections of Education
Statistics listed in table A-4. These absolute values are 4.4, 4.1, and 4.0. The MAPE for a lead time of 2 years was then
calculated by taking the average of these numbers, or 4.2. This matches the MAPE that appears in the bottom panel for a lead
time of 2 years. (Calculations for table A-3 are based on unrounded numbers.) These MAPEs are different from the MAPEs
for public elementary and secondary enrollment projections elsewhere in this report because the MAPEs in the example were
calculated using only the last four editions of Projections of Education Statistics.

The number of years used in the analyses of the projection errors differ both because projections of additional education
statistics have been added to the report over time and because, in some cases, there have been substantial changes in the
methodology used to produce the projections such that the MAPEs for the earlier projections are no longer relevant. MAPEs
are presented for a statistic only after it has been produced using substantially the same methodology in five previous editions
of Projections of Education Statistics and there are at least 5 years of historical data for use in calculating the MAPEs.

74 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2025
Variable Assumption
1 2
Demographic assumptions
Population........................................................................................................................................... Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau estimates1
18- to 24-year-old population.............................................................................................................. Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of -0.2%
25- to 29-year-old population.............................................................................................................. Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 0.4%
30- to 34-year-old population.............................................................................................................. Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 1.2%
35- to 44-year-old population.............................................................................................................. Census Bureau projection: average annual growth rate of 1.1%
Economic assumptions
Disposable income per capita in constant dollars............................................................................... Annual percent changes range between 1.0% and 2.6% with an annual growth rate of 1.7%
Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars................................... Annual percent changes range between -5.9% and 2.6% with an annual growth rate of 1.4%
Inflation rate........................................................................................................................................ Inflation rate ranges between 1.8% and 2.7%
Unemployment rate (males).............................................................................................................
Ages 18 and 19 .................................................................................................................................. Remains between 16.1% and 16.6%
Ages 20 to 24 ..................................................................................................................................... Remains between 9.6% and 9.9%
Age 25 and over ................................................................................................................................. Remains between 3.8% and 3.9%
Unemployment rate (females) .........................................................................................................
Ages 18 and 19 .................................................................................................................................. Remains between 13.6% and 13.9%
Ages 20 to 24 ..................................................................................................................................... Remains between 8.1% and 8.2%
Age 25 and over ................................................................................................................................. Remains between 4.0% and 4.1%

1
As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to reflect the most recent 2014 Cen- August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-
sus Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections 2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from http://
for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for www.census.gov/population/projections/ data/national/2014.html; and IHS Global Inc., U.S.
2014 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2014. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections. (This
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved table was prepared March 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 75

Table A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting
postsecondary institutions: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections
of Education Statistics to 2024
Lead time (years)
Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Public elementary and secondary schools
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment1 ...................................... 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment1 ..................................... 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9
9–12 enrollment1 .......................................................... 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
White2 ........................................................................... 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.3 4.9 4.6 — — — —
Black2............................................................................ 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.2 4.2 2.5 — — — —
Hispanic2 ...................................................................... 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.3 4.0 0.8 — — — —
Asian/Pacific Islander2 .................................................. 0.8 2.2 4.9 7.3 8.6 7.9 — — — —
American Indian/Alaska Native2 ................................... 1.6 3.5 8.8 12.0 16.0 17.6 — — — —
Elementary and secondary teachers3 .............................. 0.7 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.8
High school graduates4 .................................................... 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1
White2 ........................................................................... 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.5 — — — —
Black2............................................................................ 2.3 3.0 3.5 5.8 7.1 9.3 — — — —
Hispanic2 ...................................................................... 3.6 4.5 6.6 13.2 16.9 16.2 — — — —
Asian/Pacific Islander2 .................................................. 1.5 2.6 2.8 1.6 2.3 0.5 — — — —
American Indian/Alaska Native2 ................................... 1.9 1.8 3.7 6.9 8.8 7.8 — — — —
Total current expenditures5 ............................................... 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.8 5.1 5.7 5.4 5.4
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment5 ............. 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 5.1 5.9 6.3 6.5
Private elementary and secondary schools6
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment ........................................ 2.8 5.5 3.6 8.4 7.3 11.5 10.8 14.6 16.3 18.6
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment ...................................... 3.1 5.8 3.8 9.6 8.3 14.0 13.7 17.9 20.7 22.2
9–12 enrollment ............................................................ 2.9 4.2 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 7.3 5.4 7.2
High school graduates...................................................... 1.8 1.5 1.6 3.7 4.9 4.2 2.8 4.7 4.5 4.9
Degree-granting postsecondary institutions
Total enrollment7 ............................................................... 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.1 8.1 9.8 11.3
Males7 ........................................................................... 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.4 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.2 11.1 12.4
Females7....................................................................... 1.7 2.8 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.6 6.2 7.2 9.4 10.7
4-year institutions7 ........................................................ 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.4 6.5 7.6 8.8 10.1 12.0 13.8
2-year institutions7 ........................................................ 2.6 3.9 5.2 5.4 4.5 4.2 4.9 6.2 8.1 9.0
White8 ........................................................................... 2.3 4.5 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.8 7.1 7.8
Black2............................................................................ 3.6 7.9 11.9 13.9 13.4 12.5 9.9 7.8 5.1 3.3
Hispanic2 ...................................................................... 4.1 6.4 9.8 12.9 16.6 19.3 20.8 21.2 21.1 22.1
Asian/Pacific Islander2 .................................................. 3.4 5.6 7.1 8.4 8.1 7.6 6.7 7.4 9.3 8.4
American Indian/Alaska Native8 ................................... 5.7 8.5 12.1 14.4 17.2 22.9 31.6 35.6 42.0 47.1
Total first-time freshman enrollment9 ................................ 3.2 5.8 7.4 7.1 5.7 2.4 3.4 — — —
Males9 ........................................................................... 3.2 5.8 7.0 6.7 5.1 2.5 0.1 — — —
Females9....................................................................... 3.4 5.9 7.8 7.4 6.8 4.6 6.4 — — —
Associate’s degrees8 ........................................................ 2.9 5.5 8.9 12.7 15.4 16.4 16.6 — — —
Bachelor’s degrees8 ......................................................... 0.7 0.6 0.9 2.7 4.5 6.2 7.1 — — —

— Not available. 6MAPEs for private prekindergarten–12 enrollments and high school graduates were calcu-
1
MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 edi- lated from the past 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of
tions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to Education Statistics 2011 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024.
7
1984–1985 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for total degree-granting postsecondary institution enrollment and degree-granting
2MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments and high school graduates by race/ethnic-
postsecondary institution enrollment by sex and level of institution were calculated using
ity were calculated using the last 6 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projec- the last 18 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education
tions of Education Statistics to 2019 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024.
3Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents. MAPEs for teachers were calculated 8MAPEs for degree-granting postsecondary institution enrollment by race/ethnicity were
from the past 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Educa- calculated using the last 10 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections
tion Statistics to 1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024, excluding of Education Statistics to 2015 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024.
9MAPEs for degree-granting postsecondary institution first-time freshmen enrollment by
Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 which did not include projections of teachers.
4
MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated from the past 25 editions of Pro- sex, associate’s degrees, and bachelor’s degrees were calculated using the last seven edi-
jections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through tions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2018
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024.
5In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the
Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. MAPEs for current expenditures were calcu- absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. No MAPEs are presented for cer-
lated using projections from the last 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from tain degrees conferred as the current models used for producing these projections have
Projections of Education Statistics to 1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics only been used for four other editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Calculations
to 2024, excluding Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 which did not include projec- were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously pub-
tions of current expenditures. lished figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projec-
tions of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared March 2016.)

76 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-3. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 1
Year of data
Source 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15
1 2 3 4 5
Enrollment in thousands
Actual................................................................................ 20,994 20,644 20,376 20,207
Projected enrollment in thousands
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 ...................... 21,294 21,556 21,792 22,042
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 ...................... † 20,968 21,216 21,575
Projections of Education Statistics to 2023 ...................... † † 20,597 21,011
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ...................... † † † 20,254
Percentage difference between actual and projected values
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 ...................... 1.4 4.4 7.0 9.1
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 ...................... † 1.6 4.1 6.8
Projections of Education Statistics to 2023 ...................... † † 1.1 4.0
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ...................... † † † 0.2

† Not applicable. 2015, Enrollment component; and Projections of Education Statistics, various editions. (This
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte- exhibit was prepared January 2016.)
grated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), IPEDS Spring 2011 through Spring

Table A-4. Example of constructing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) on fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions, part 2
Lead time (years)
Source 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4 5
Absolute value of percentage difference between actual and projected values
Projections of Education Statistics to 2021 ...................... 1.4 4.4 7.0 9.1
Projections of Education Statistics to 2022 ...................... 1.6 4.1 6.8 †
Projections of Education Statistics to 2023 ...................... 1.1 4.0 † †
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024 ...................... 0.2 † † †
Mean absolute percentage error
Example............................................................................ 1.1 4.2 6.9 9.1

† Not applicable. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte-
NOTE: The mean absolute percentage errors presented in this table are for illustrative pur- grated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), IPEDS Spring 2011 through Spring
pose only. 2015, Enrollment component; and Projections of Education Statistics, various editions. (This
exhibit was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 77

A.1. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY ENROLLMENT
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projected trends in elementary and secondary enrollment from 2014
to 2025. These projections were made using three models:

» The National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model was used to project total, public, and private school
enrollments for the nation by grade level and for ungraded elementary and ungraded secondary programs.
» The State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model was used to project total public school
enrollments by grade level for individual states and regions.
» The National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model was used to project public
school enrollments for the nation by race/ethnicity and grade level.

All three elementary and secondary enrollment models used the following same methods.

Overview of approach
Two methods were used in all the elementary and secondary enrollment models:

» The grade progression rate method was used to project enrollments in grades 2 through 12. In this method, a rate of
progression from each grade (1 through 11) to the next grade (2 through 12) was projected using single exponential
smoothing. (For example, the rate of progression from grade 2 to grade 3 is the current year’s grade 3 enrollment
expressed as a percentage of the previous year’s grade 2 enrollment.) To calculate enrollment for each year in the forecast
period, the progression rate for each grade was applied to the previous year’s enrollment in the previous grade.
» The enrollment rate method was used to project prekindergarten, kindergarten, and first-grade enrollments as well
as elementary special and ungraded and secondary special and ungraded enrollments. For each of these enrollment
categories, the enrollment rate for the last year of actual data was used as the projected enrollment rate. To calculate
enrollment for each year in the forecast period, the enrollment rate for each category was applied to the projected
population in the appropriate age group.

Assumptions underlying these methods

The grade progression and enrollment rate methods assume that past trends in factors affecting public and private elementary
and secondary school enrollments will continue over the forecast period. This assumption implies that all factors influencing
enrollments will display future patterns consistent with past patterns. This method implicitly includes the net effect of such
factors as migration, dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, and transfers between public and private schools.

Procedures and equations used in all three elementary and secondary enrollment
projection models
The notation and equations that follow describe the basic procedures used to project elementary and secondary enrollments
in each of the three elementary and secondary enrollment projection models.
Let:
i = Subscript denoting age
j = Subscript denoting grade
t = Subscript denoting time
T = Subscript of the first year in the forecast period
Nt = Enrollment at the prekindergarten (nursery) level
Kt = Enrollment at the kindergarten level
Gj,t = Enrollment in grade j
Et = Enrollment in elementary special and ungraded programs
St = Enrollment in secondary special and ungraded programs
Pi,t = Population age i
78 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology
 Rj,t = Progression rate for grade j
RNt = Enrollment rate for prekindergarten (nursery school)
RKt = Enrollment rate for kindergarten
RG1,t = Enrollment rate for grade 1
REt = Enrollment rate for elementary special and ungraded programs
RSt = Enrollment rate for secondary special and ungraded programs.

Step 1. Calculate historical grade progression rates for each of grades 2 through 12. The first step in projecting the enrollments for
grades 2 through 12 using the grade progression method was to calculate, for each grade, a progression rate for each year of
actual data used to produce the projections except for the first year. The progression rate for grade j in year t equals

Rj,t = Gj,t/Gj―1,t―1

Step 2. Produce a projected progression rate for each of grades 2 through 12. Projections for each grade’s progression rate
were then produced for the forecast period using single exponential smoothing. A separate smoothing constant, chosen
to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used to calculate the projected progression rate for each grade. Single
exponential smoothing produces a single forecast for all years in the forecast period. Therefore, for each grade j, the projected
progression rate, Rj, is the same for each year in the forecast period.
̂
Step 3. Calculate enrollment projections for each of grades 2 through 12. For the first year in the forecast period, T, enrollment
projections, Gj,t, for grades 2 through 12, were produced using the projected progression rates and the enrollments of grades 1
̂
through 11 from the last year of actual data, T–1. Specifically,

Ĝ j,T = R̂ j ∙ Gj―1,T―1

This same procedure was then used to produce the projections for the following year, T+1, except that enrollment projections
for year T were used rather than actual numbers:
Ĝ j,T+1 = R̂ j ∙ Ĝ j-1,T

The enrollment projections for grades 2 through 11 for year T were those just produced using the grade progression method.
The projection for grade 1 for year T was produced using the enrollment rate method, as outlined in steps 4 and 5 below.

The same procedure was used for the remaining years in the projections period.

Step 4. For the last year of actual data, calculate enrollment rates for prekindergarten, kindergarten, grade 1, elementary special
and ungraded, and secondary special and ungraded. The first step in projecting prekindergarten, kindergarten, first-grade,
elementary special and ungraded, and secondary special and ungraded enrollments using the enrollment rate method was to
calculate enrollment rates for each enrollment category for the last year of actual data, T–1, where:
RNT―1 = NT―1/P5,T―1
RKT―1 = KT―1/P5,T―1
RG1,T―1 = G1,T―1/P6,T―1
RET―1 = ET―1/Σi=5
13
Pi,T―1
RST―1 = ST―1/Σi17
=14Pi,T―1

These enrollment rates were then used as the projected enrollment rates for each year in the forecast period (RN, RK, RG1, RE,
and RS).

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 79

Step 5. Using the rates for the last year of actual data as the projected enrollment rates, calculate enrollment projections for
prekindergarten through grade 1 and the ungraded categories. For each year in the forecast period, the enrollment rates were
then multiplied by the appropriate population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau (P̂ i,t ) to calculate enrollment
projections for prekindergarten (nursery school) (N̂ t ), kindergarten (K̂ t ), first grade (Ĝ 1,t ), elementary ungraded (Ê t ), and
secondary ungraded (Ŝ t )
N̂ t = RN ∙ P̂ 5,t
K̂ t = RK ∙ P̂ 5,t
Ĝ 1,t = RG1 ∙ P̂ 5,t
13
Ê t = RE ∙ (Σ
i=5
P̂ i,t )
17
Ŝ t = RS ∙ (Σ
i=14
P̂ i,t )
Step 6. Calculate total elementary and secondary enrollments by summing the projections for each grade and the ungraded
categories. To obtain projections of total enrollment, projections of enrollments for the individual grades (prekindergarten
through 12), elementary ungraded, and secondary ungraded were summed.

National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model

This model was used to project national total, public, and private school enrollments by grade level and for ungraded elementary
and ungraded secondary programs. National enrollment projections for public and private schools were developed separately,
then added together to yield total elementary and secondary enrollment projections for the nation. To develop these projections,
enrollment data from NCES were used, along with population estimates and projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. Below
is information about the specific data used to develop the public school projections and the private school projections, as well as
information about the grade progression rates and enrollment rates specific to public schools and private schools.

For details on procedures used to develop the projections, see “Procedures and equations used in all three elementary and secondary
enrollment projection models,” earlier in this section of appendix A.

Data used to develop national elementary and secondary enrollment projections

Public school enrollment data. Public school enrollment data from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary
School Systems for 1972 to 1980 and the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981 to 2013 were used to develop the
national public school enrollment projections.

Private school enrollment data. Private school enrollment data from the NCES Private School Universe Survey (PSS) for
1989–90, 1991–92, 1993–94, 1995–96, 1997–98, 1999–2000, 2001–02, 2003–04, 2005–06, 2007–08, 2009–10, 2011–12,
and 2013–14 were used to develop the national private school enrollment projections. Since the PSS is collected in the fall of
odd-numbered years, data for even-numbered years without a PSS collection were estimated by interpolating grade-by-grade
progression data from PSS.

Population estimates and projections used for public school enrollment projections. Population estimates for 1972
to 2014 and population projections for 2015 to 2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau were also used to develop the public
school enrollment projections. (See table B-2 on page 128 and table B-3 on page 129.) The set of population projections
used in this year’s Projections of Education Statistics are the Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections by age
and sex (December 2014), adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimates. This was done through the use of
ratio adjustments in which, for each combination of state, age, and sex, the population projections from 2015 to 2025 were
multiplied by the ratio of the population estimate for 2014 to the population projection for 2014.

Population estimates and projections used for private school enrollment projections. Population estimates for 1989 to
2014 and population projections for 2015 to 2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau were used to develop the private school
enrollment projections. The population projections were ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimates.

Grade progression and enrollment rates for national elementary and secondary enrollment
projections
Public school grade progression and enrollment rates. Table A-5 on page 84 shows the public school grade progression
rates for 2013 and projections for 2014 through 2025. Table A-6 on page 84 shows the public school enrollment rates for
2013 and projections for 2014 through 2025.

80 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Accuracy of national elementary and secondary enrollment projections
Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of public school enrollment were calculated using the last 32
editions of Projections of Education Statistics, while MAPEs for projections of private school enrollment were calculated using
the last 14 editions. Table A, below, shows MAPEs for both public and private school enrollment projections.

Table A. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time, control of school, and grade
in elementary and secondary schools: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education
Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Private elementary and secondary schools
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 2.8 5.5 3.6 8.4 7.3 11.5 10.8 14.6 16.3 18.6
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 3.1 5.8 3.8 9.6 8.3 14.0 13.7 17.9 20.7 22.2
9–12 enrollment 2.9 4.2 3.7 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 7.3 5.4 7.2
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage
terms. MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from
Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for private prekindergarten-12 enrollments
were calculated from the past 14 editions, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024.
Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction, earlier in appendix A.

State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model

This edition of Projections of Education Statistics contains projected trends in public elementary and secondary enrollment
by grade level from 2014 to 2025 for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as for each region of the
country. The state enrollment projections were produced in two stages:

» first, an initial set of projections for each state was produced; and
» second, these initial projections were adjusted to sum to the national public enrollment totals produced by the National
Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model.

For each region, the enrollment projections equaled the sum of enrollment projections for the states within that region. The
states within each geographic region can be found in appendix F.

Initial set of state projections

The same methods used to produce the national enrollment projections—namely, the grade progression rate method and the
enrollment rate method—were used to produce the initial sets of public school enrollment projections for each state and the
District of Columbia. A separate smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used to
calculate the projected progression rate for each combination of jurisdiction and grade.

For details on the procedures used to develop the initial sets of projections, see “Procedures and equations used in all three elementary
and secondary enrollment projection models,” earlier in this section of appendix A.

Limitations of the grade progression method for state projections

The grade progression rate method assumes that past trends in factors affecting public school enrollments will continue over
the forecast period. This assumption implies that all factors influencing enrollments will display future patterns consistent
with past patterns. Therefore, this method has limitations when applied to states with unanticipated changes in migration
rates. This method implicitly includes the net effect of such factors as migration, dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, and
transfers to and from private schools.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 81

Adjustments to the state projections
The initial projections of state public school enrollments were adjusted to sum to the national projections of public school
prekindergarten (preK)–12, preK–8, and 9–12 enrollments shown in table 1 on page 37. This was done through the use of
ratio adjustments in which all the states’ initial enrollment projections for each grade level were multiplied by the ratio of
the national enrollment projection for that grade level to the sum of the state enrollment projections for that grade level.

Data used to develop state elementary and secondary enrollment projections

Public school enrollment data. Public school enrollment data from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School
Systems for 1980 and from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981 to 2013 were used to develop these projections.

Population estimates and projections. Population estimates for 1980 to 2014 from the U.S. Census Bureau and
population projections for 2014 to 2025 from IHS Global Inc. were used to develop the state-level enrollment
projections. This is the first edition of Projections of Education Statistics to use population projections from IHS Global
Inc. rather than from the Census Bureau. The change was made because it had been many years since the Census Bureau
had produced population projections at the state level. Unlike the old state-level Census population projections, the IHS
Global Inc. state-level population projections were by age groups rather than individual ages. For each year, age-specific
population projections for each state were produced for each age from 5 through 17 by applying that age’s share of
national projection for its age group to the state-level projections for its age group.

Accuracy of state elementary and secondary enrollment projections

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of public school enrollment by state were calculated using the last
20 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Tables A-7 through A-9 on pages 85–87 show MAPEs for preK–12, preK–8,
and 9–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state.

National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Projection

Model
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics contains projected trends in national public elementary and secondary
enrollment by race/ethnicity from 2014 to 2025.

This is the third edition to include enrollment projections for students of Two or more races. As 2010 is the first year in
which all 50 states and the District of Columbia reported enrollment data for students of Two or more races, enrollment
projections for this category were produced using a different method than that used for the other five racial/ethnic groups.

Prior to 2008, there was a single category for students of Asian and/or Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander origin. In
2008 and 2009, states could choose to place these students in either the single category, Asian and/or Native Hawaiian or
Other Pacific Islander, or in one of three categories, (1) Asian, (2) Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and (3) Two or more
races (for students of both Asian and Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander origin). Beginning in 2010, the option of using
the single category was eliminated and states were required to place students in one of those three categories. For students of
Asian and/or Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander origin, projections were calculated for a single category, Asian/Pacific
Islander. For 2008 and 2009, the count of the Asian/Pacific Islander students included the total of the Asian and/or Native
Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander students for states reporting one category and the counts for Asian students and Native
Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander students for states reporting three categories. Beginning in 2010, the count of the Asian/
Pacific Islander students was the sum of the counts Asian students and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander students.

The enrollment projections by race/ethnicity were produced in two stages:

» first, an initial set of projections by race/ethnicity was produced; and

» second, these initial projections were adjusted to sum to the national totals.
Initial set of projections by race/ethnicity
The same methods used to produce the national enrollment projections—namely, the grade progression rate method and the
enrollment rate method—were used to produce initial sets of projections for each of the following five racial/ethnic groups:
White, Black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native. A separate smoothing constant, chosen
to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used to calculate the projected progression rate for each combination of
race/ethnicity and grade.

82 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

For details on the procedures used to develop the initial sets of projections, see “Procedures and equations used in all three elementary
and secondary enrollment models,” earlier in this section of appendix A.

National enrollment projections for students of Two or more races by grade level were produced by taking the 2013 grade-
level enrollment numbers for students of Two or more races and applying the growth rates from 2014 to 2025 of the U.S.
Census Bureau’s age-specific population projections for persons of Two or more races.

Adjustments to the projections by race/ethnicity

The initial projections of enrollments by race/ethnicity were adjusted to sum to the national projections of public
school preK–12, preK–8, and 9–12 enrollments shown in table 1 on page 37. This was done through the use of ratio
adjustments in which all the initial enrollment projections by race/ethnicity for each grade level were multiplied by the
ratio of the national enrollment projection for that grade level to the sum of the initial enrollment projections by race/
ethnicity for that grade level.

Data and imputations used to develop enrollment projections by race/ethnicity

Public school enrollment data. Public school enrollment data by grade level and race/ethnicity from the NCES Common
Core of Data (CCD) for 1994 to 2013 were used to develop these projections. While projections by race/ethnicity were
produced at the national level only, the national data used to develop these projections were constructed from state-level data
on enrollment by grade level and race/ethnicity. In those instances where states did not report their enrollment data by grade
level and race/ethnicity, the state-level data had to be examined and some imputations made in order to produce the national
public school enrollment by grade level and race/ethnicity data. For example, in 1994, North Dakota did not report grade-
level enrollment data by race/ethnicity. It did, however, report these numbers for 1995. So, to impute these numbers for
1994, North Dakota’s 1994 grade-level enrollment data were multiplied by the state’s 1995 racial/ethnic breakdowns at each
grade level.

Population estimates and projections. Population estimates for 2000 to 2014 and population projections for 2015 to
2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau were used to develop the enrollment projections by race/ethnicity. The set of population
projections used in this year’s Projections of Education Statistics are the Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections
by age, sex, and race/ethnicity (December 2014), ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimates.

Accuracy of enrollment projections by race/ethnicity

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of public school enrollment by race/ethnicity were calculated using
the last six editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table B, below, shows MAPEs for public school enrollment by race/
ethnicity projections.

Table B. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of enrollment projections, by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs
constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of
Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total enrollment 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
White 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.3 4.9 4.6 — — — —
Black 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.2 4.2 2.5 — — — —
Hispanic 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.3 4.0 0.8 — — — —
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.8 2.2 4.9 7.3 8.6 7.9 — — — —
American Indian/Alaska Native 1.6 3.5 8.8 12.0 16.0 17.6 — — — —
— Not available.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage
terms. MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from
Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for public prekindergarten–12 enrollments
by race/ethnicity were calculated using the last six editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2019
through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 83

Table A-5. Actual and projected national public school grade progression rates: Fall 2013, and fall 2014 through fall 2025
Grade Actual 2013 Projected 2014 through 2025
1 2 3
1 to 2................................................................................ 99.2 99.1
2 to 3................................................................................ 100.2 100.2
3 to 4................................................................................ 99.7 99.9
4 to 5................................................................................ 100.2 100.2
5 to 6................................................................................ 100.3 100.5
6 to 7................................................................................ 100.7 100.6
7 to 8................................................................................ 100.2 100.2
8 to 9................................................................................ 107.6 107.6
9 to 10.............................................................................. 94.6 94.6
10 to 11............................................................................. 94.5 94.5
11 to 12............................................................................. 98.5 98.5

NOTE: The progression rate for a particular grade in a year equals the enrollment in the SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Com-
grade for that year divided by the enrollment in the previous grade in the previous year all mon Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Educa-
multiplied by 100. For example, the progression rate for third-graders in 2013 equals the tion,” 2013–14; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model,
enrollment of third-graders in 2013 divided by the enrollment of second-graders in 2012, all 1972 through 2025. (This table was prepared January 2016.)
multiplied by 100.

Table A-6. Actual and projected national enrollment rates in public schools, by grade level: Fall 2013, and fall 2014 through fall 2025
Grade level Actual 2013 Projected 2014 through 2025
1 2 3
Prekindergarten................................................................ 32.2 32.2
Kindergarten..................................................................... 93.0 93.0
Grade 1............................................................................. 93.8 93.8
Elementary ungraded ....................................................... 0.2 0.2
Secondary ungraded ........................................................ 0.2 0.2

NOTE: The enrollment rate for each grade level equals the enrollment at that grade level SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
divided by the population of that grade’s base age, all multiplied by 100. The base age for Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,”
each grade level is as follows: kindergarten, 5 years old; grade 1, 6 years old; elementary 2013–14; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972
ungraded, 5 to 13 years old; and secondary ungraded, 14 to 17 years old. Projected values through 2025. (This table was prepared January, 2016.)
for 2014 through 2025 were held constant at the actual values for 2013.

84 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-7. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–12 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools,
by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024
Lead time (years)
Region and state 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
United States .................................. 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Region
Northeast .................................................. 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1
Midwest..................................................... 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5
South ........................................................ 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.4
West.......................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.9
State
Alabama.................................................... 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.3 5.0 5.7
Alaska ....................................................... 0.9 1.7 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.8 6.3 7.8 9.5
Arizona...................................................... 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.5 8.0 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.4 11.0
Arkansas................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.6
California................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.3
Colorado ................................................... 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.4 6.5
Connecticut............................................... 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.5 5.2
Delaware................................................... 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.8 4.7 5.6 6.7 7.9
District of Columbia................................... 4.8 5.0 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.3 4.8 6.9 6.3
Florida....................................................... 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.6
Georgia ..................................................... 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.6 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.2
Hawaii ....................................................... 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.3 9.9 11.2 12.9 14.6
Idaho......................................................... 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9
Illinois........................................................ 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6
Indiana ...................................................... 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.1
Iowa .......................................................... 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.6
Kansas...................................................... 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.0
Kentucky ................................................... 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.5
Louisiana .................................................. 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.5 7.4
Maine ........................................................ 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.7
Maryland................................................... 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3
Massachusetts.......................................... 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.1
Michigan ................................................... 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.5 5.2 5.7 5.5
Minnesota ................................................. 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9
Mississippi ................................................ 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.2
Missouri .................................................... 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
Montana.................................................... 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.7 9.4 10.9
Nebraska .................................................. 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.3
Nevada...................................................... 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.2 8.0 9.7 11.0 12.3 14.1
New Hampshire ........................................ 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.6 3.8
New Jersey ............................................... 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.7 5.0
New Mexico .............................................. 1.2 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.9 6.2 7.6 8.8 9.8 11.1
New York................................................... 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9
North Carolina .......................................... 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.8 5.3 6.1 7.4
North Dakota............................................. 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.6 7.6 8.6 9.5
Ohio .......................................................... 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0
Oklahoma ................................................. 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.3
Oregon...................................................... 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.8
Pennsylvania............................................. 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.4
Rhode Island............................................. 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 4.2
South Carolina .......................................... 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.7
South Dakota ............................................ 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.9 8.7
Tennessee................................................. 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7
Texas......................................................... 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.4
Utah .......................................................... 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.7 4.8 5.9 7.0 7.6
Vermont .................................................... 1.2 2.0 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.1 6.3
Virginia...................................................... 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7
Washington ............................................... 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.2
West Virginia............................................. 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.3
Wisconsin ................................................. 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.1
Wyoming ................................................... 0.8 1.2 2.3 3.5 4.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 11.1 13.0

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections of jections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2005 through Pro-
the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public pre- jections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers.
kindergarten–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 editions of Projections of Edu- Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
cation Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projec-
Education Statistics to 2024. State MAPEs were calculated using the last 20 editions of Pro- tions of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 85

Table A-8. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected prekindergarten–8 enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools,
by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024
Lead time (years)
Region and state 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
United States .................................. 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9
Region
Northeast .................................................. 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9
Midwest..................................................... 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2
South ........................................................ 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.0
West.......................................................... 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6
State
Alabama.................................................... 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.6
Alaska ....................................................... 1.2 1.9 2.9 3.4 4.3 5.2 7.2 9.6 11.5 13.5
Arizona...................................................... 2.0 3.0 4.9 6.2 7.6 9.3 9.6 9.9 9.8 10.6
Arkansas................................................... 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.5 4.6 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.3
California................................................... 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.6
Colorado ................................................... 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.5 7.8
Connecticut............................................... 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.8 5.1
Delaware................................................... 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.3 7.5 9.0
District of Columbia................................... 4.3 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.9 6.3 4.8 6.9 6.1
Florida....................................................... 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.1 5.3 6.5 7.8 8.3 8.2 8.5
Georgia ..................................................... 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.9
Hawaii ....................................................... 1.7 3.0 4.3 5.8 7.8 10.1 12.4 14.4 16.6 18.2
Idaho......................................................... 0.9 1.9 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.5
Illinois........................................................ 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7
Indiana ...................................................... 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.9
Iowa .......................................................... 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.9
Kansas...................................................... 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.4 4.0
Kentucky ................................................... 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.1
Louisiana .................................................. 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.6
Maine ........................................................ 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 4.1 5.6 5.9
Maryland................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.9
Massachusetts.......................................... 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0
Michigan ................................................... 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.7 4.5 5.5 5.9 5.5
Minnesota ................................................. 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Mississippi ................................................ 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.6
Missouri .................................................... 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2
Montana.................................................... 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.2 7.0 8.9 11.1 13.3 14.7
Nebraska .................................................. 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.9
Nevada...................................................... 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.6 8.5 10.8 12.9 14.6 16.0 17.7
New Hampshire ........................................ 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.2 4.8 5.6 5.8
New Jersey ............................................... 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.1
New Mexico .............................................. 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.0 11.0
New York................................................... 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8
North Carolina .......................................... 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.6 5.8 6.6 7.5 8.9
North Dakota............................................. 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.7 11.4
Ohio .......................................................... 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.5
Oklahoma ................................................. 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.7
Oregon...................................................... 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.0
Pennsylvania............................................. 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0
Rhode Island............................................. 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.6
South Carolina .......................................... 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.3
South Dakota ............................................ 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.2 8.0 8.6 9.7 10.4 10.9
Tennessee................................................. 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2
Texas......................................................... 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.1 6.9 8.0
Utah .......................................................... 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.8 5.4 6.6 7.6 8.2
Vermont .................................................... 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.1 6.4 7.9 7.7 8.7
Virginia...................................................... 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.9
Washington ............................................... 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1
West Virginia............................................. 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.3
Wisconsin ................................................. 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3
Wyoming ................................................... 0.9 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.1 8.1 10.0 12.5 14.2 16.2

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections tions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2005
of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using
prekindergarten–8 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 editions of Projections of unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projec- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projec-
tions of Education Statistics to 2024. State MAPEs were calculated using the last 20 edi- tions of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

86 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-9. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projected grades 9–12 enrollment in public schools, by lead time, region, and state: MAPEs
constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024
Lead time (years)
Region and state 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
United States .................................. 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4
Region
Northeast .................................................. 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.9
Midwest..................................................... 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.0
South ........................................................ 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.8
West.......................................................... 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.4
State
Alabama.................................................... 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 6.8
Alaska ....................................................... 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.5
Arizona...................................................... 3.7 5.6 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.4
Arkansas................................................... 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.8
California................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.2
Colorado ................................................... 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.8
Connecticut............................................... 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.7
Delaware................................................... 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.0 5.3 6.5
District of Columbia................................... 6.6 7.6 11.3 13.6 15.6 16.4 14.2 13.7 15.6 16.2
Florida....................................................... 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.9 4.0 5.3 5.7 5.6
Georgia ..................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.3 5.4
Hawaii ....................................................... 1.6 2.3 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 6.0 5.9 7.2
Idaho......................................................... 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.8
Illinois........................................................ 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.4
Indiana ...................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3
Iowa .......................................................... 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5
Kansas...................................................... 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2
Kentucky ................................................... 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.9 5.1
Louisiana .................................................. 2.6 3.7 5.5 7.1 8.5 10.0 10.7 10.2 9.3 10.6
Maine ........................................................ 1.5 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.2 6.2 7.5 8.5 8.9 8.5
Maryland................................................... 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9
Massachusetts.......................................... 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2
Michigan ................................................... 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.9 8.5 9.4
Minnesota ................................................. 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.4
Mississippi ................................................ 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.8
Missouri .................................................... 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2
Montana.................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.4
Nebraska .................................................. 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.2
Nevada...................................................... 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.6 5.8 7.7 8.9 9.3
New Hampshire ........................................ 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.8
New Jersey ............................................... 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.7 7.4
New Mexico .............................................. 2.3 3.9 5.6 6.8 7.9 8.7 9.6 10.6 11.1 12.5
New York................................................... 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4
North Carolina .......................................... 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.8 5.3
North Dakota............................................. 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.3 8.0
Ohio .......................................................... 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.0
Oklahoma ................................................. 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.1 5.0
Oregon...................................................... 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.8 5.0 5.0
Pennsylvania............................................. 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.9 3.3
Rhode Island............................................. 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.8 4.8
South Carolina .......................................... 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 5.4
South Dakota ............................................ 1.5 2.8 4.6 6.0 7.1 7.6 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.3
Tennessee................................................. 1.9 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.4 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.1
Texas......................................................... 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.3 5.3 6.3
Utah .......................................................... 1.8 2.2 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.3 6.5 6.3
Vermont .................................................... 1.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2
Virginia...................................................... 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.6
Washington ............................................... 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.4
West Virginia............................................. 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2
Wisconsin ................................................. 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1
Wyoming ................................................... 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.2 6.5 8.1 8.9 9.1

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections tions of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2005 through
of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded num-
9–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 32 editions of Projections of Education bers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Edu- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projec-
cation Statistics to 2024. State MAPEs were calculated using the last 20 editions of Projec- tions of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 87

A.2. ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY TEACHERS
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projected trends in elementary and secondary teachers, pupil/teacher
ratios, and new teacher hires from 2014 to 2025. These projections were made using two models:

» The Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model was used to project the number of public school teachers, the
number of private school teachers, and the total number of teachers for the nation. It was also used to project pupil/
teacher ratios for public schools, private schools, and all elementary and secondary schools.
» The New Teacher Hires Projection Model was used to project the number of new teacher hires in public schools, private
schools, and all schools.

Overview of approach
Approach for numbers of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios
Public schools. Multiple linear regression was used to produce initial projections of public school pupil/teacher ratios
separately for elementary and secondary schools. The initial projections of elementary pupil/teacher ratios and secondary pupil/
teacher ratios were applied to enrollment projections to project the numbers of elementary teachers and secondary teachers,
which were summed to get the total number of public school teachers. Final projections of the overall public school pupil/
teacher ratios were produced by dividing total projected public school enrollment by the total projected number of teachers.

Assumptions underlying this method

This method assumes that past relationships between the public school pupil/teacher ratio (the dependent variable) and the
independent variables used in the regression analysis will continue throughout the forecast period. For more information about
the independent variables, see “Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model,” later in this section of appendix A.
Private schools. Private school pupil/teacher ratios were projected by applying each year’s projected annual percentage change
in the overall public school pupil/teacher ratio to the previous year’s private school pupil/teacher ratio. The projected private
school pupil/teacher ratios were then applied to projected enrollments at private schools to produce projected numbers of
private school teachers.

Assumptions underlying this method

This method assumes that the future pattern in the trend of private school pupil/teacher ratios will be the same as that for
public school pupil/teacher ratios. The reader is cautioned that a number of factors could alter the assumption of consistent
patterns of change in ratios over the forecast period.

Approach for new teacher hires

The following numbers were projected separately for public schools and for private schools:

» The number of teachers needed to fill openings when there is an increase in the size of the teaching workforce from one year
to the next and the decrease in the number of replacement teachers needed if there is a decrease in the size of the teaching
workforce from one year to the next. This number was estimated based on continuation rates of teachers by their age.
» The number of teachers needed to fill openings due to an increase in the size of the teaching workforce from one year to the
next. This number was estimated by subtracting the projected number of teachers in one year from the projected
number of teachers in the next year.
These two numbers were summed to yield the total number of “new teacher hires” for each control of school—that is, teachers
who will be hired in a given year, but who did not teach in that control the previous year. A teacher who moves from one
control to the other control (i.e., from a public to private school or from a private to a public school) is considered a new teacher
hire, but a teacher who moves from one school to another school in the same control is not considered a new teacher hire.

Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model

Projections for public schools were produced first. Projections for private schools were produced based partially on input from
the public school projections. Finally, the public and private school projections were combined into total elementary and
secondary school projections (not shown in the steps below).

88 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Steps used to project numbers of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios
Public school teachers. The following steps were used for the public school projections:

Step 1. Produce projections of pupil/teacher ratios for public elementary schools and public secondary schools separately. Two
separate equations were used—one for elementary schools and one for secondary schools. The equations for elementary and
secondary schools included an AR(1) term for correcting for autocorrelation and the following independent variables:

» Independent variables for public elementary school pupil/teacher ratios—(1) average teacher wage relative to the overall
economy-level wage, and (2) level of education revenue from state sources in constant dollars per public elementary student.
» Independent variables for public secondary school pupil/teacher ratios—(1) level of education revenue from state sources
in constant dollars per public secondary student, and (2) the number of students enrolled in public secondary schools
relative to the secondary school–age population.

To estimate the models, they were first transformed into nonlinear models and then the coefficients were estimated
simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation.

For details on the equations, model statistics, and data used to project public school pupil/teacher ratios, see “Data and equations
used for projections of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios,” below.

Step 2. Produce projections of the number of teachers for public elementary schools and public secondary schools separately. The
projections of the public elementary pupil/teacher ratio and public secondary pupil/teacher ratio were applied to projections
of enrollments in elementary schools and secondary schools, respectively, to produce projections of public elementary teachers
and public secondary teachers.

Step 3. Produce projections of the total number of teachers for public elementary and secondary schools combined. The projections
of public elementary teachers and public secondary teachers were added together to produce the projections of the total
number of public elementary and secondary teachers.
Step 4. Produce projections of the pupil/teacher ratio for public elementary and secondary schools combined. The projections of
total enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools were divided by the projections of the total number of public
elementary and secondary teachers to produce projections of the overall pupil/teacher ratio in public elementary and secondary
schools.
Private school teachers. The following steps were used for the private school projections:
Step 1. Produce projections of the private school pupil/teacher ratio. First, the projection of the private school pupil/teacher ratio
for 2014 was calculated by multiplying the private school pupil/teacher ratio for 2013 (the last year of actual data) by the
percentage change from 2013 to 2014 in the public school pupil/teacher ratio. The same method was used to calculate the
projections of the private school pupil/teacher ratio for 2014 through 2025. That is, each year’s projected annual percentage
change in the public school pupil/teacher ratio was applied to the previous year’s private school pupil/teacher ratio.
Step 2. Produce projections of the number of private school teachers. The projected pupil/teacher ratios were applied to projected
private school enrollments to produce projections of private school teachers from 2014 through 2025.
For information about the private school teacher and enrollment data used for the private school projections, see “Data and equations
used for projections of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios,” below.

Data and equations used for projections of teachers and pupil/teacher ratios
Public school data used in these projections were by organizational level (i.e., school level), not by grade level. Thus, secondary
school enrollment is not the same as enrollment in grades 9 through 12 because many jurisdictions count some grade 7 and 8
enrollment as secondary. For example, some jurisdictions may have 6-year high schools with grades 7 through 12.
Data used to estimate the equation for public elementary school pupil/teacher ratios. The following data were used to
estimate the equation:
» To compute the historical elementary school pupil/teacher ratios—Data on 1972–73 to 1980–81 enrollments in public
elementary schools came from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary Day Schools and data on 1981–82
to 2013–14 enrollment came from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD). The proportion of public school teachers
who taught in elementary schools was taken from the National Education Association and then applied to the total
number of public school teachers from the CCD to produce the number of teachers in elementary schools.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 89

 » For 1973–74 and 1975–76, the education revenue from state sources data came from Statistics of State School Systems,
published by NCES. For 1972–73, 1974–75, and 1976–77, the education revenue from state sources data came from
Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, also published by NCES. For 1977–78
through 2012–13, these data came from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD).
Estimated equation and model statistics for public elementary school pupil/teacher ratios. For the estimated equation
and model statistics, see table A-10 on page 93. In the public elementary pupil/teacher ratio equation, the independent
variables affect the dependent variable in the expected ways:

» As the average teacher wage relative to the overall economy-level wage increases, the pupil/teacher ratio increases; and
» As the level of education revenue from state sources in constant dollars per public elementary student increases, the
pupil/teacher ratio decreases.
Data used to project public elementary school pupil/teacher ratios. The estimated equation was run using projected
values for teacher salaries and education revenues from state sources from 2013–14 through 2025–26. For more information,
see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix and Section A.4 Expenditures for Public
Elementary and Secondary Education later in this appendix.
Data used to estimate the equation for public secondary school pupil/teacher ratios. The following data were used to
estimate the equation:

» To compute the historical secondary school pupil/teacher ratios—Data on 1972–73 to 1980–81 enrollments in public
elementary schools came from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary Day Schools and data on 1981–82
to 2013–14 enrollment came from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD). The proportion of public school teachers
who taught in secondary schools was taken from the National Education Association and then applied to the total
number of public school teachers from the CCD to produce the number of teachers in secondary schools.
» For 1973–74 and 1975–76, the education revenue from state sources data came from Statistics of State School Systems,
published by NCES. For 1972–73, 1974–75, and 1976–77, the education revenue from state sources data came from
Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, also published by NCES. For 1977–78
through 2012–13, these data came from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD).
» To compute the historical secondary school enrollment rate—Data on the secondary school-age population from
1972–73 to 2013–14 came from the U.S. Census Bureau. Data on enrollments in public secondary schools during the
same period came from the CCD, as noted above.
Estimated equation and model statistics for public secondary school pupil/teacher ratios. For the estimated equation and
model statistics, see table A-10 on page 93. In the public secondary pupil/teacher ratio equation, the independent variables
affect the dependent variable in the expected way:

» As enrollment rates (number of enrolled students relative to the school-age population) increase, the pupil/teacher ratio
increases; and
» As the level of education revenue from state sources in constant dollars per public secondary student increases, the pupil/
teacher ratio decreases.
Data used to project public secondary school pupil/teacher ratios. The estimated equation was run using projections for
education revenues, public secondary enrollments, and secondary school–age populations from 2013–14 through 2025–26.
Secondary enrollment projections were derived from the enrollment projections described in Section A.1. Elementary and
Secondary Enrollment. Population projections were from the Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections by age
and sex (December 2014), ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimates.
Private school teacher and enrollment data. Private school data for 1989–90, 1991–92, 1993–94, 1995–96, 1997–98,
1999–2000, 2001–02, 2003–04, 2005–06, 2007–08, 2009–10, 2011–12, and 2013–14 came from the biennial NCES
Private School Universe Survey (PSS). Since the PSS is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, data for years without a
PSS collection were estimated using data from the PSS.
Private school enrollment projections. Private school enrollments from 2011 to 2025 came from the projections described
in Section A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment, earlier in this appendix.

Accuracy of projections of numbers of teachers

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of public school teachers were calculated using the last 26 editions of
Projections of Education Statistics that included projections of teachers. Table C, below, shows MAPEs for projections of the numbers
of public school teachers. There was a change in the methodology for projecting private school teachers beginning with Projections
of Education Statistics to 2017, and therefore there are too few years of data to present the MAPEs for private school teachers.
90 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology
Table C. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of number of public elementary and secondary school
teachers, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 1997–98
through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary teachers 0.7 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.4 5.8
NOTE: MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics
to 1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024, excluding Projections of Education Statistics to 2012, which did not include
projections of teachers. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.

New Teacher Hires Projection Model

The New Teacher Hires Projection Model was estimated separately for public and private school teachers. The model produces
projections of the number of teachers who were not teaching in the previous year, but who will be hired in a given year.
About new teacher hires
A teacher is considered to be a new teacher hire for a control of school (public or private) for a given year if the teacher teaches
in that control that year but had not taught in that control in the previous year. Included among new teachers hires are: (1)
teachers who are new to the profession; (2) teachers who had taught previously but had not been teaching the previous year; and
(3) teachers who had been teaching in one control the previous year but have moved to the other control. Concerning the last
category, if a teacher moves from one public school to a different public school, that teacher would not be counted as a new teacher
hire for the purposes of this model. On the other hand, if a teacher moves from a public school to a private school, that teacher
would be counted as a private school new teacher hire, since the teacher did not teach in a private school in the previous year.
The New Teacher Hires Projection Model measures the demand for teacher hires. Due to difficulties in defining and
measuring the pool of potential teachers, no attempt was made to measure the supply of new teacher candidates.
Steps used to project numbers of new teacher hires
The steps outlined below provide a general summary of how the New Teacher Hires Projection Model was used to produce
projections of the need for new teacher hires.
For more information about the New Teacher Hires Projection Model, see Hussar (1999).

First, the series of steps outlined below was used to produce projections of public school new teacher hires. Then, the same
steps were used to produce projections of private school new hires. Finally, the public and private new teacher hires were
combined to produce projections of total new teacher hires.
Step 1. Estimate the age distribution of full-time-equivalent (FTE) teachers in 2011. For this estimate, the age distribution of the
headcount of school teachers (including both full-time and part-time teachers) in 2011 was applied to the national number of
FTE teachers in the same year.
Step 2. Project the number of new FTE teacher hires needed to replace those who left teaching between 2011 and 2012. In this step
» Age-specific continuation rates for 2012 (due to data availability, 2008 continuation rates were used for private school
new teacher hires) were applied to the FTE count of teachers by age for 2011, resulting in estimates of the number of
FTE teachers who remained in teaching in 2012 by individual age.
» The FTE teachers who remained in teaching by individual age were summed across all ages to produce a projection of
the total number of FTE teachers who remained teaching in 2012.
» The total projection of remaining FTE teachers in 2012 was subtracted from the total FTE teacher count for 2011 to
produce the projected number of FTE teachers who left teaching.
Step 3. Project the number of new FTE teacher hires needed due to the overall increase in the teacher workforce between 2011 and
2012. The total number of FTE teachers in 2011 was subtracted from the total projected number of FTE teachers in 2012 to
project the overall increase in the teaching workforce between 2011 and 2012.
Step 4. Project the total number of new FTE teacher hires needed in 2012. The number of FTE teachers who left teaching from
step 2 was added to the projected net change in the number of FTE teachers from step 3 to project the total number of new
FTE teacher hires needed in 2012.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 91
Step 5. Project the FTE count of teachers by age for 2012. In this step

» The age distribution for the headcount of newly hired teachers in 2011 was applied to the projected total number of
new FTE teacher hires in 2012, resulting in the projected number of new FTE teacher hires by age.
» For each individual age, the projected number of new FTE teacher hires was added to the projected number of remaining
FTE teachers (from step 2, first bullet) to produce the projected FTE count of teachers by age for 2012.

Step 6. Repeat steps 2 to 5 for each year from 2013 through 2025.

» In step 2
• For public school teachers ages 22 through 66 and private school teachers ages 21 through 65, projections of age-specific
continuation rates were used. A separate smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors,
was used to calculate the projected progression rate for each age. (For a general description of the exponential smoothing
technique, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.)
• For all other ages, the age-specific continuation rates for 2012 for public school teachers and 2008 for private school
teachers (the last year of actual data) were used.
» In step 3, projections of the numbers of FTE teachers were used for all years in which there were no actual teacher
numbers. The projections of FTE teachers are described under “Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model,”
earlier in this section of appendix A.

Assumptions underlying this method

A number of assumptions are made in order to make these projections. They include that (1) the age distribution of FTE
teachers in 2011 was similar to that of full-time and part-time teachers in that year (step 1); (2) the age-specific continuation
rates for FTE teachers for each year from 2012 through 2025 are similar to either the projections produced using single
exponential smoothing or the values for 2012, depending on the age of the teachers (step 2); (3) the age distribution for
newly hired FTE teachers from 2012 through 2025 is similar to that of newly hired full-time and part-time teachers in 2011
(step 3); (4) the actual numbers of FTE teachers for each year from 2013 through 2025 are similar to projections of FTE
teachers shown in table 8 on page 50; and (5) no economic or political changes further affect the size of the teaching force.

Data used for projections of new teacher hires

Data on numbers of public school teachers. The number of FTE teachers for 2012 and 2013 came from the NCES
Common Core of Data (CCD).

Data on numbers of private school teachers. Private school data on the numbers of FTE teachers in 2003–04, 2005–06,
2007–08, 2009–10, 2011–12, and 2013–14 came from the biennial NCES Private School Universe Survey (PSS). Since the PSS
is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, data for years without a PSS collection were estimated using data from the PSS.

Data on the age distribution of public and private school teachers. Data on the age distribution of full-time and part-time
public and private school teachers came from the 2011–12 NCES Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). These data and their
standard errors are shown in table A-11 on page 93.

Data on the age distribution of public and private new teacher hires. Data on the age distribution of newly hired full-time
and part-time public and private school teachers came from the 2011–12 NCES Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). These
data and their standard errors are shown in table A-12 on page 93.

Data on and projections of age-specific continuation rates of public and private school teachers. The 2008 continuation
rates came from the 2008–09 NCES Teacher Follow-Up Survey (TFS) and the 2012 continuation rates came from the 2012–
13 TFS. Data from the 1994–95, 2000–01, and 2004-05 TFS were also used in the projection of age-specific continuation
rates. The actual data, their standard errors, and the projections are shown in table A-13 on page 94.

Projections of the numbers of public and private elementary and secondary school teachers. These projections are
described under “Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model,” earlier in this section of appendix A.

Accuracy of projections of new teacher hires

No MAPEs are presented for new teacher hires as there has only been two additional years of historical data for this statistic
since it was first included in Projections of Education Statistics to 2018.

92 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-10. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers based on data from 1972 through 2013
Breusch-Godfrey
Serial Correlation
Dependent variable Equation1 R2 LM test statistic2 Time period
1 2 3 4 5
Elementary ................................................... ln(RELENRTCH) = 3.80 + 0.07 ln (RSALARY) - 0.22 ln(RSGRNTELENR) 1.00 .60 (0.741) 1972 to
(52.086) (7.447) (-13.632) 2013
Secondary .................................................... ln(RSCENRTCH) = 4.16 - 0.22 ln(RSGRNTSCENR) + 0.64 ln(RSCENRPU) + .56 AR (1) 0.98 2.24 (0.327) 1973 to
(41.984) (-16.349) (5.299) (3.934) 2013

1
AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process RELENRTCH = Ratio of public elementary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e.,
for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. To estimate the model, it was first transformed pupil/teacher ratio).
into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated simultaneously by applying a RSCENRTCH = Ratio of public secondary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e.,
Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation. For a general dis- pupil/teacher ratio).
cussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence RSALARY = Average annual teacher salary relative to the overall economy wage in 2000
of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. (1985). The dollars.
Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. 315–318. Num- RSGRNTELENR = Ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to
bers in parentheses are t-statistics. public elementary school enrollment in 2000 dollars.
2The number in parentheses is the probability of the Chi-Square associated with the RSGRNTSCENR = Ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test. A p value greater that 0.05 implies that we do public secondary school enrollment in 2000 dollars.
not reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the 5 percent significance level for a RSCENRPU = The ratio of enrollment in public secondary schools to the 11- to 18-year-old
two-tailed test and 10 percent significance level for a one-tailed test (i.e., there is no auto- population.
correlation present). For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elemen-
statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. tary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This table was pre-
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. pared March 2016.)

Table A-11. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age, control of school, and teaching status: School year 2011–12
Age distribution
Less than
Control of school and teaching status Percent of total Total 25 years 25–29 years 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–64 years 65 years or more
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public........................................................... 100.0 (†) 100.0 2.8 (0.24) 12.5 (0.58) 28.9 (0.79) 25.1 (0.75) 23.1 (0.72) 6.1 (0.45) 1.4 (0.20)
Full-time........................................................ 93.1 (0.46) 100.0 2.9 (0.25) 12.8 (0.60) 29.3 (0.85) 24.9 (0.81) 22.8 (0.76) 6.0 (0.48) 1.3 (0.21)
Part-time ....................................................... 6.9 (0.46) 100.0 1.9 (0.59) 8.7 (2.04) 23.4 (2.92) 27.5 (3.22) 27.0 (2.58) 8.7 (1.80) 2.9 (0.99)
Private.......................................................... 100.0 (†) 100.0 4.6 (1.35) 12.2 (1.26) 24.0 (1.58) 23.8 (1.57) 21.3 (1.57) 9.6 (0.97) 4.6 (0.93)
Full-time........................................................ 79.4 (2.04) 100.0 4.7 (1.30) 12.5 (1.25) 25.6 (1.82) 23.8 (1.75) 21.1 (1.66) 9.0 (1.07) 3.3 (0.94)
Part-time ....................................................... 20.6 (2.04) 100.0 4.0 (1.90) 10.9 (3.14) 18.2 (4.31) 23.5 (3.39) 22.2 (3.15) 11.8 (3.09) 9.4 (2.60)

† Not applicable. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Schools
NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Standard errors appear in paren- and Staffing Survey (SASS), “Public School Teacher Questionnaire,” 2011–12 and “Private
theses. The 2011–12 data are the most recent data available. School Teacher Questionnaire,” 2011–12; and unpublished tabulations. (This table was
prepared February 2014.)

Table A-12. Percentage distribution of full-time and part-time newly hired teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school years, 1987–88
through 2011–12
Age distribution
Control of school and school year Total Less than 25 years 25–29 years 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–64 years 65 years or more
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Public
1987–88........................................................ 100.0 17.7 (0.79) 23.7 (1.19) 33.0 (1.43) 21.2 (0.80) 4.0 (0.51) 0.3 ! (0.11) ‡ (†)
1990–91........................................................ 100.0 17.5 (1.06) 24.0 (1.35) 30.6 (1.33) 21.4 (1.28) 5.6 (0.65) 0.6 (0.18) ‡ (†)
1993–94........................................................ 100.0 16.2 (0.91) 28.7 (1.15) 24.9 (1.04) 24.6 (1.16) 5.0 (0.63) 0.5 (0.13) 0.2 ! (0.09)
1999–2000.................................................... 100.0 23.6 (1.28) 22.5 (0.97) 22.2 (1.10) 19.2 (0.90) 11.1 (0.88) 0.9 (0.23) 0.6 ! (0.26)
2003–04........................................................ 100.0 24.4 (1.21) 19.0 (1.23) 24.6 (1.10) 16.5 (1.18) 13.3 (0.93) 1.5 (0.29) 0.7 ! (0.29)
2007–08........................................................ 100.0 23.8 (1.75) 24.3 (1.79) 20.4 (1.56) 15.1 (0.94) 13.6 (1.22) 2.3 (0.39) 0.5 ! (0.22)
2011–12........................................................ 100.0 21.9 (2.46) 23.0 (2.93) 24.1 (2.79) 15.9 (2.79) 10.9 (2.58) 3.5 ! (1.35) ‡ (†)
Private
1987–88........................................................ 100.0 17.0 (1.27) 22.8 (1.68) 32.5 (2.17) 17.9 (1.61) 5.3 (1.09) ‡ (†) 1.8 ! (0.77)
1990–91........................................................ 100.0 15.8 (1.47) 26.3 (1.83) 29.1 (1.86) 21.1 (1.67) 5.6 (0.88) 1.1 ! (0.40) 1.0 ! (0.42)
1993–94........................................................ 100.0 19.3 (1.13) 24.4 (1.19) 24.9 (1.49) 22.6 (1.18) 7.3 (0.85) 0.9 (0.20) 0.6 ! (0.23)
1999–2000.................................................... 100.0 18.5 (0.89) 17.2 (0.87) 24.1 (1.24) 22.1 (1.19) 14.0 (1.01) 2.6 (0.39) 1.5 (0.38)
2003–04........................................................ 100.0 17.1 (1.59) 16.0 (2.13) 23.0 (2.19) 22.8 (3.32) 15.3 (1.77) 3.6 (0.83) 2.1 (0.58)
2007–08........................................................ 100.0 14.3 (1.26) 18.2 (1.36) 23.2 (1.97) 23.6 (1.92) 14.4 (1.49) 4.2 (0.84) 2.1 ! (0.69)
2011–12........................................................ 100.0 14.9 ! (5.78) 20.7 (4.29) 27.5 (4.62) 17.4 (4.74) 10.8 (2.51) 5.3 ! (2.32) ‡ (†)

† Not applicable. NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Standard errors appear in paren-
! Interpret with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is between 30 and theses. The 2011–12 data are the most recent data available.
50 percent. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Schools
‡ Reporting standards not met. The coeffiecient of variation (CV) for this estimate is 50 per- and Staffing Survey (SASS), “Public School Teacher Questionnaire,” 1987–88 through
cent or greater. 2011–12 and “Private School Teacher Questionnaire,” 1987–88 through 2011–12; and
unpublished tabulations. (This table was prepared February 2014.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 93

Table A-13. Actual and projected continuation rates of full-time and part-time school teachers, by age and control of school: Selected school
years, 1993–94 to 1994–95 through 2025–26 to 2026–27
Continuation rates, by age
Less than
Control of school and school year Total 25 years 25–29 years 30–39 years 40–49 years 50–59 years 60–64 years 65 years or more
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Public actual
1993–94 to 1994–95..................................... 93.4 (0.36) 96.2 (1.09) 90.0 (1.22) 93.3 (1.03) 96.1 (0.54) 93.7 (0.77) 69.5 (4.79) 65.9 (8.81)
1999–2000 to 2000–01................................. 92.4 (0.38) 95.8 (0.98) 89.3 (7.38) 93.2 (2.76) 94.5 (0.61) 92.9 (4.58) 76.8 ! (29.18) (‡) (†)
2003–04 to 2004–05..................................... 91.4 (0.55) 94.9 (1.79) 90.1 (1.71) 92.6 (0.93) 94.5 (0.78) 90.8 (0.81) 77.2 (3.00) 70.3 (9.40)
2007–08 to 2008–09..................................... 91.8 (0.45) 92.2 (1.95) 89.0 (2.33) 92.4 (1.29) 95.1 (1.06) 92.3 (1.23) 82.8 (3.97) 88.9 (4.26)
2011–12 to 2012–13..................................... 92.1 (0.65) 83.1 (9.79) 92.3 (1.39) 94.2 (1.14) 96.7 (0.53) 90.2 (1.38) 81.9 (3.11) 70.2 (12.44)
Public projected
2012–13 to 2013–14..................................... 92.3 (†) 90.1 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.7 (†) 90.3 (†) 81.4 (†) 69.6 (†)
2013–14 to 2014–15..................................... 92.3 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.9 (†) 96.8 (†) 90.2 (†) 81.7 (†) 69.8 (†)
2014–15 to 2015–16..................................... 92.2 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.9 (†) 96.8 (†) 90.2 (†) 81.5 (†) 68.6 (†)
2015–16 to 2016–17..................................... 92.3 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.8 (†) 96.7 (†) 90.3 (†) 81.8 (†) 69.5 (†)
2016–17 to 2017–18..................................... 92.3 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.8 (†) 96.7 (†) 90.3 (†) 81.6 (†) 70.4 (†)
2017–18 to 2018–19..................................... 92.3 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.9 (†) 96.7 (†) 90.3 (†) 81.5 (†) 70.4 (†)
2018–19 to 2019–20..................................... 92.4 (†) 90.0 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.9 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.4 (†) 81.6 (†) 70.9 (†)
2019–20 to 2020–21..................................... 92.4 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.4 (†) 81.6 (†) 70.9 (†)
2020–21 to 2021–22..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.4 (†) 81.6 (†) 71.5 (†)
2021–22 to 2022–23..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.5 (†) 81.5 (†) 71.2 (†)
2022–23 to 2023–24..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.5 (†) 81.6 (†) 71.0 (†)
2023–24 to 2024–25..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.5 (†) 81.5 (†) 71.0 (†)
2024–25 to 2025–26..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 94.0 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.5 (†) 81.5 (†) 70.6 (†)
2025–26 to 2026–27..................................... 92.5 (†) 89.9 (†) 91.8 (†) 93.9 (†) 96.6 (†) 90.4 (†) 81.5 (†) 70.9 (†)
Private actual
1993–94 to 1994–95..................................... 88.1 (0.74) 80.0 (4.42) 86.9 (1.64) 85.1 (1.70) 91.3 (1.14) 91.8 (1.52) 86.9 (2.74) 58.1 (8.67)
1999–2000 to 2000–01................................. 83.0 (0.72) 61.7 (4.90) 72.2 (2.76) 80.2 (1.57) 86.1 (1.47) 92.3 (1.00) 78.8 (4.79) 75.2 (5.17)
2003–04 to 2004–05..................................... 83.3 (2.06) 75.4 (5.97) 71.7 (3.62) 82.2 (2.30) 86.8 (2.28) 89.2 (9.17) 80.1 (4.15) 79.5 (6.07)
2007–08 to 2008–09..................................... 82.2 (1.69) 77.7 (8.33) 71.7 (6.44) 79.1 (3.43) 86.1 (2.92) 86.8 (2.17) 85.2 (4.21) 77.3 (8.23)
Private projected
2012–13 to 2013–14..................................... 81.5 (†) 69.1 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.0 (†) 88.1 (†) 80.0 (†) 75.9 (†)
2013–14 to 2014–15..................................... 81.2 (†) 68.7 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.1 (†) 87.6 (†) 79.9 (†) 75.4 (†)
2014–15 to 2015–16..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.6 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.0 (†) 87.5 (†) 79.5 (†) 77.8 (†)
2015–16 to 2016–17..................................... 81.4 (†) 69.4 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.1 (†) 86.2 (†) 87.9 (†) 80.0 (†) 76.8 (†)
2016–17 to 2017–18..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.3 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.1 (†) 85.8 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.3 (†) 76.0 (†)
2017–18 to 2018–19..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.1 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.6 (†) 79.5 (†) 77.1 (†)
2018–19 to 2019–20..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.1 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.7 (†) 79.5 (†) 77.1 (†)
2019–20 to 2020–21..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.0 (†) 87.8 (†) 79.9 (†) 76.3 (†)
2020–21 to 2021–22..................................... 81.4 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.3 (†) 80.2 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.7 (†) 79.8 (†) 76.8 (†)
2021–22 to 2022–23..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.0 (†) 87.6 (†) 79.8 (†) 76.0 (†)
2022–23 to 2023–24..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.0 (†) 75.4 (†)
2023–24 to 2024–25..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.7 (†) 80.1 (†) 75.9 (†)
2024–25 to 2025–26..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 86.0 (†) 87.7 (†) 79.7 (†) 76.0 (†)
2025–26 to 2026–27..................................... 81.3 (†) 69.2 (†) 73.2 (†) 80.2 (†) 85.9 (†) 87.8 (†) 79.7 (†) 75.8 (†)

† Not applicable. same control from one year to the next. Standard errors appear in parentheses. The 2012–13
! Interpret with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is between 30 and data are the most recent data available for public school teachers and the 2008–09 data are
50 percent. the most recent data available for private school teachers.
‡ Reporting standards not met. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is 50 per- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Teacher
cent or greater. Follow up Survey (TFS), “Public School Teacher Questionnaire,” 1994–95 through 2012–13
NOTE: The continuation rate for teachers for each control of school (public schools and pri- and “Private School Teacher Questionnaire,” 1994–95 through 2008–09; and unpublished
vate schools) is the percentage of teachers in that control who continued teaching in the tabulations. (This tables was prepared March 2016.)

94 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

A.3. HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projected trends in the number of high school graduates from
2013–14 to 2025–26. These projections were made using three models:

» The National High School Graduates Projection Model was used to project the number of public high school graduates,
the number of private high school graduates, and the total number of high school graduates for the nation.
» The State Public High School Graduates Projection Model was used to project the number of public high school graduates
for individual states and regions.
» The National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model was used to project the number of public
high school graduates for the nation by race/ethnicity.

Overview of approach
All the high school graduates models first calculated the number of high school graduates as a percentage of grade 12
enrollment based on historical data. Single exponential smoothing was used to project this percentage. The projected
percentage was then applied to projections of grade 12 enrollment.

Assumptions underlying this approach

The percentage of 12th-graders who graduate was assumed to remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates.
This methodology assumes that past trends in factors affecting graduation rates, such as dropouts, migration, and public
or private transfers, will continue over the forecast period. No specific assumptions were made regarding the dropout rate,
retention rate, or the rate at which alternative credentials are awarded. The combined effect of these proportions is reflected
implicitly in the graduate proportion. In addition to student behaviors, the projected number of graduates could be affected
by changes in graduation requirements, but this is not considered in the projections in this report.

Procedures used in all three high school graduates projection models

The following steps were used to project the numbers of high school graduates:

Step 1. For each year in the historic period, express the number of high school graduates as a percentage of grade 12 enrollment. This
value represents the approximate percentage of 12th graders who graduate. For information about the specific historical data
and analysis periods used for the National High School Graduates Model, the State Public High School Graduates Model,
and the National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Model, see the description of the appropriate model, later
in this section of appendix A.

Step 2. Project the percentage of 12th-graders who graduate from step 1. This percentage was projected using single exponential
smoothing with a smoothing constant chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors. Because single exponential
smoothing produces a single forecast for all years in the forecast period, the same projected percentage of grade 12 enrollment
was used for each year in the forecast period.

Step 3. Calculate projections of the numbers of high school graduates. For each year in the forecast period, the projected
percentage from step 2 was applied to projections of grade 12 enrollment to yield projections of high school graduates.

National High School Graduates Projection Model

This model was used to project the number of public high school graduates, the number of private high school graduates,
and the total number of high school graduates for the nation. Public and private high school graduates were projected
separately. The public and private projections were then summed to yield projections of the total number of high school
graduates for the nation.

For details of the procedures used to develop the projections, see “Procedures used in all three high school graduates projection
models,” above.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 95

Data used in the National High School Graduates Projection Model
Public school data on graduates and grade 12 enrollment. Data on public school 12th-grade enrollments and high school
graduates from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems for 1972–73 to 1980–81 and the NCES
Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981–82 through 2005–06 were used to develop national projections of public high
school. Also, for 2006–07 through 2012–13, data on public school 12th-grade enrollments from the CCD and data on high
school graduate from the “State Dropout and Completion Data File” were used.

Private school data on graduates and grade 12 enrollment. Data on private school 12th-grade enrollments for 1989–90
through 2013–14 and high school graduates for 1988–89 through 2012–13 were used to develop national projections of
private high school graduates. The data were from the biennial NCES Private School Universe Survey (PSS) from 1989–90
to 2013–14 with data for 12th grade enrollment the same as the year of the survey and the data for high school graduates for
the preceding year (i.e., the 2013–14 PSS presents high school graduates for 2012–13). Since the PSS is collected in the fall
of odd-numbered years, data for missing years were estimated using data from the PSS. For 12th grade enrollment, estimates
for missing years were linear interpolations of the prior year’s and succeeding year’s actual values. For high school graduates,
estimates for the missing years were the interpolations of the high school graduates to estimated 12th grade enrollment
percentages for the prior and succeeding years multiplied by the estimated enrollments for the current year.

Public and private school enrollment projections for grade 12. Projections of grade 12 enrollment in public schools
and in private schools were used to develop projections of public high school graduates and private high school graduates,
respectively. The grade 12 enrollment projections were made using the grade progression method. For more information, see
Section A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment, earlier in this appendix.

Accuracy of national high school graduates projections

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of graduates from public high schools were calculated using the last 25
editions of Projections of Education Statistics, while MAPEs for projections of graduates from private high schools were calculated
using the last 14 editions. Table D, below, shows MAPEs for both public and private school graduation projections.

Table D. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of high school graduates, by lead time and control
of school: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public high school graduates 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1
Private high school graduates 1.8 1.5 1.6 3.7 4.9 4.2 2.8 4.7 4.5 4.9
NOTE: MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated from the past 25 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for private high school graduates were calculated from the
past 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistic to 2011 through Projections of Education Statistics to
2024. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in appendix A.

State Public High School Graduates Projection Model

This edition of Projections of Education Statistics contains projections of public high school graduates from 2013–14
to 2025–26 for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, as well as for each region of the country. The state
projections of high school graduates were produced in two stages:

» first, an initial set of projections for each state was produced; and
» second, these initial projections were adjusted to sum to the national public school totals produced by the National
High School Graduates Projection Model.

For each region, the high school graduate projections equaled the sum of high school graduate projections for the states
within that region.

96 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Initial set of state projections
The same steps used to produce the national projections of high school graduates were used to produce an initial set of
projections for each state and the District of Columbia. A separate smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of
squared forecast errors, was used to calculate the projected percentage of 12th grade enrollment for each jurisdiction.

For details on the steps used to develop the initial sets of projections, see “Procedures used in all three high school graduate projection
models,” earlier in this section of appendix A.

Adjustments to the state projections

The initial projections of state public high school graduates were adjusted to sum to the national projections of public high
school graduates shown in table 9 on page 51. This was done through the use of ratio adjustments in which all the states’ high
school graduate projections were multiplied by the ratio of the national public high school graduate projection to the sum of
the state public high school graduate projections.

Data used in the State Public High School Graduates Projection Model
Public school data on graduates and grade 12 enrollment at the state level. State-level data on public school high school
graduates from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems for 1972–73 to 1980–81, the NCES
Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981–82 through 2004–05, and the “State Dropout and Completion Data File” for
2005–06 through 2012–13 were used to develop state-level projections of public high school graduates. State-level data on
public school 12th-grade enrollments from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems for 1972–73
to 1980–81 and the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981–82 through 2013–14 were also used.

Public school projections for grade 12 enrollment at the state level. State-level projections of grade 12 enrollment in
public schools were used to develop the state-level projections of public high school graduates. The grade 12 enrollment
projections were made using the grade progression method. For more information, see Section A.1. Elementary and
Secondary Enrollment, earlier in this appendix.

Accuracy of state public high school graduate projections

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of the number of public high school graduates by state were
calculated using the last 20 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table A-14 on page 99 shows MAPEs for the number
of high school graduates by state.

National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model

The projections of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity were produced in two stages:

» first, an initial set of projections for each racial/ethnic group was produced; and
» second, these initial projections were adjusted to sum to the national public school totals produced by the National
High School Graduates Projection Model.

Initial set of projections by race/ethnicity

The same steps used to produce the national projections of high school graduates were used to produce an initial set of
projections for each of the following five racial/ethnic groups: White, Black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American
Indian/Alaska Native. For example, the number of White public high school graduates was projected as a percentage of White
grade 12 enrollment in public schools. A separate smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors,
was used to calculate the projected percentage of 12th-grade enrollment for each racial/ethnic group. This is the third edition
of Projections of Education Statistics to include projections for high school graduates of Two or more races. To produce an
initial set of projections for this racial/ethnic group, the 2012–13 ratio of 12th-grade enrollment to high school graduates of
the group were multiplied by the 12th-grade enrollment projections of the group from the data file used to produce table 6.

Adjustments to the projections by race/ethnicity

The projections of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity were adjusted to sum to the national projections of public
high school graduates shown in table 9 on page 51. This was done through the use of ratio adjustments in which all high
school graduate projections by race/ethnicity were multiplied by the ratio of the national high school graduate projection to
the sum of the high school projections by race/ethnicity.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 97

Data and imputations used in the Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model
Public school data on graduates and grade 12 enrollment by race/ethnicity. Data on public school high school graduates
by race/ethnicity from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School Systems for 1972–73 to 1980–81, the
NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981–82 through 2004–05, and the “State Dropout and Completion Data File”
for 2005–06 through 2012–13 were used to develop projections of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity. Data on
public school 12th-grade enrollments by race/ethnicity from the NCES Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary School
Systems for 1972–73 to 1980–81 and the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) for 1981–82 through 2013–14 were also
used. In those instances where states did not report their high school graduate data by race/ethnicity, the state-level data had
to be examined and some imputations made. For example, in 1994, Arizona did not report high school graduate data by race/
ethnicity. It did, however, report grade 12 enrollment numbers by race/ethnicity for that year. So, to impute the high school
graduate numbers by race/ethnicity for that year, Arizona’s total number of high school graduates for 1994 was multiplied by
the state’s 1994 racial/ethnic distribution for grade 12 enrollment.

Public enrollment projections for grade 12 by race/ethnicity. Projections of grade 12 enrollment in public schools by race/
ethnicity were used to develop the projections of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity. The grade 12 enrollment
projections were made using the grade progression method. For more information, see Section A.1. Elementary and
Secondary Enrollment, earlier in this appendix.

Accuracy of enrollment projections by race/ethnicity

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of the number of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity were
calculated using the last six editions of Projections of Education Statistic. Table E, below, shows MAPEs for public high school
graduates by race/ethnicity projections.
Table E. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections of public high school graduates, by lead time and
race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through
Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total high school graduates 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1
White 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.5 — — — —
Black 2.3 3.0 3.5 5.8 7.1 9.3 — — — —
Hispanic 3.6 4.5 6.6 13.2 16.9 16.2 — — — —
Asian/Pacific Islander 1.5 2.6 2.8 1.6 2.3 0.5 — — — —
American Indian/Alaska Native 1.9 1.8 3.7 6.9 8.8 7.8 — — — —
— Not available.
NOTE: MAPEs for public high school graduates were calculated from the past 25 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections
of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for public high school graduates by race/ethnicity were
calculated using the last 6 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 through Projections of
Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

98 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-14. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for the projected number of high school graduates in public schools, by lead time, region,
and state: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Education
Statistics to 2024
Lead time (years)
Region and state 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
United States .................................. 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1
Region
Northeast .................................................. 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.6
Midwest..................................................... 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3
South ........................................................ 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.5 5.0 6.0 6.9 7.9
West.......................................................... 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.4 3.4
State
Alabama.................................................... 3.1 3.1 2.8 5.1 6.1 7.3 8.2 8.5 9.5 10.3
Alaska ....................................................... 2.5 2.1 3.0 4.6 5.2 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.6
Arizona...................................................... 7.6 8.0 10.0 12.6 11.4 11.6 13.8 11.6 10.5 12.5
Arkansas................................................... 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.9
California................................................... 2.4 2.5 3.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.4 5.1 5.0
Colorado ................................................... 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.6 4.7
Connecticut............................................... 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 5.6 5.0
Delaware................................................... 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.6 3.9 4.9 5.0 6.0 6.7 7.6
District of Columbia................................... 7.0 7.4 11.6 14.0 14.1 14.8 15.9 17.2 17.9 20.5
Florida....................................................... 1.9 3.9 5.2 4.6 5.1 5.0 6.0 6.6 8.1 7.2
Georgia ..................................................... 1.9 2.7 3.5 5.5 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.4 10.2 10.1
Hawaii ....................................................... 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.4 8.2 8.9 10.9 11.8 13.4 14.5
Idaho......................................................... 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.8 4.9 5.4
Illinois........................................................ 2.5 2.1 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.7 5.4 4.4 5.1 6.5
Indiana ...................................................... 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.0
Iowa .......................................................... 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7
Kansas...................................................... 1.2 1.6 2.4 3.0 4.3 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.0
Kentucky ................................................... 2.2 3.3 3.4 4.7 5.4 6.4 7.4 7.9 7.9 9.9
Louisiana .................................................. 1.8 2.7 4.5 6.2 7.3 6.6 6.3 6.4 3.8 5.3
Maine ........................................................ 2.5 3.8 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.7 8.6 9.3 11.0 11.7
Maryland................................................... 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.6
Massachusetts.......................................... 1.0 1.4 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
Michigan ................................................... 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 7.1 8.0 8.7 9.5
Minnesota ................................................. 2.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.7
Mississippi ................................................ 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.5 3.5 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.5 5.7
Missouri .................................................... 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.4 6.4 6.7
Montana.................................................... 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.9 7.1 8.3
Nebraska .................................................. 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.1
Nevada...................................................... 4.7 7.1 8.8 9.8 8.8 9.3 8.6 9.5 11.1 12.8
New Hampshire ........................................ 1.1 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 6.6 7.2 7.4
New Jersey ............................................... 2.0 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.3 5.4 6.4 7.3 8.0 8.8
New Mexico .............................................. 3.1 2.7 4.3 4.5 6.6 6.9 7.3 8.1 9.7 10.0
New York................................................... 1.8 2.9 3.3 5.0 6.1 7.4 8.2 9.2 9.8 10.5
North Carolina .......................................... 1.9 2.4 3.6 4.1 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.8 10.2
North Dakota............................................. 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.3 7.1
Ohio .......................................................... 2.6 2.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.7
Oklahoma ................................................. 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.4
Oregon...................................................... 1.8 2.1 2.6 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.2 6.9
Pennsylvania............................................. 1.6 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.1
Rhode Island............................................. 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0 4.2 5.1 5.4 5.1
South Carolina .......................................... 1.7 3.2 3.1 5.3 6.7 8.2 8.6 9.0 9.0 9.5
South Dakota ............................................ 2.2 2.9 3.2 5.0 7.7 8.4 9.7 10.9 12.5 13.8
Tennessee................................................. 4.2 6.1 7.9 11.1 13.5 15.5 15.8 16.4 16.2 15.4
Texas......................................................... 2.4 3.5 4.7 6.0 6.5 7.4 8.3 9.7 11.3 13.0
Utah .......................................................... 4.6 5.6 5.3 6.2 6.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 2.3
Vermont .................................................... 1.9 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.6 6.9 7.5 8.3 9.5 9.8
Virginia...................................................... 1.4 2.1 2.7 4.0 4.8 4.8 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.4
Washington ............................................... 1.8 1.9 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.5 5.4
West Virginia............................................. 0.7 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.8 5.0 5.4 6.0
Wisconsin ................................................. 1.2 1.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.8 5.3
Wyoming ................................................... 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.8 7.6 8.9 10.4 11.3

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the average value over past projections Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2005 through
of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. National MAPEs for public Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded num-
high school graduates were calculated using the last 25 editions of Projections of Educa- bers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
tion Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2000 through Projections of Edu- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projec-
cation Statistics to 2024. State MAPEs were calculated using the last 20 editions of tions of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared January 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 99

A.4. EXPENDITURES FOR PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY
EDUCATION
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projections of total current expenditures for public elementary and
secondary education, current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, and current expenditures per pupil in average daily
attendance for 2013–14 through 2025–26.

As the source of the elementary and secondary private school data, the NCES Private School Universe Survey, does not collect
data for current expenditures, there are no projections for private school current expenditures.

Overview of approach
Theoretical and empirical background
The Public Elementary and Secondary Education Current Expenditure Projection Model used in this report is based on
the theoretical and empirical literature on the demand for local public services such as education.1 Specifically, it is based
on a type of model that has been called a median voter model. In brief, a median voter model posits that spending for each
public good in the community (in this case, spending for education) reflects the preferences of the “median voter” in the
community. This individual is identified as the voter in the community with the median income and median property value.
The amount of spending in the community reflects the price of education facing the voter with the median income, as well
as his income and tastes. There are competing models in which the level of spending reflects the choices of others in the
community, such as government officials.

In a median voter model, the demand for education expenditures is typically linked to four different types of independent
variables: (1) measures of the income of the median voter; (2) measures of intergovernmental aid for education going
indirectly to the median voter; (3) measures of the price to the median voter of providing one more dollar of education
expenditures per pupil; and (4) any other variables that may affect one’s tastes for education. The Public Elementary and
Secondary Education Current Expenditure Projection Model contains independent variables of the first two types. It uses
multiple linear regression analysis to define the relationships between these independent variables and current expenditures
(the dependent variable).

Elementary and Secondary Education Current Expenditure Projection Model

Projections for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment were produced first. These projections were then used in
calculating total expenditures and expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance.

Steps used to project current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education
Step 1. Produce projections of education revenue from state sources. The equation for education revenue included an AR(1) term
for correcting for autocorrelation and the following independent variables:

» disposable income per capita in constant dollars; and

» the ratio of fall enrollment to the population.
To estimate the model, it was first transformed into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated
simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation.

Step 2. Produce projections of current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment. The equation for current expenditures per pupil
for fall enrollment included an AR(1) term for correcting for autocorrelation and the following independent variables:

» disposable income per capita in constant dollars; and

» education revenue from state sources per capita in constant dollars. This variable was projected in step 1.

1
For a discussion of the theory together with a review of some of the older literature, see Inman (1979). More recent empirical work includes Gamkhar
and Oates (1996) and Mitias and Turnbull (2001).

100 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

To estimate the models, they were first transformed into nonlinear models and then the coefficients were estimated
simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation.

For details on the equations used in steps 1 and 2, the data used to estimate these equations, and their results, see “Data and
equations used for projections of current expenditures for public elementary and secondary education,” below.

Step 3. Produce projections of total current expenditures. Projections of total current expenditures were made by multiplying the
projections for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment by projections for fall enrollment.

Step 4. Produce projections of current expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance. The projections for total current
expenditures were divided by projections for average daily attendance to produce projections of current expenditures per
pupil in average daily attendance.
All the projections were developed in 1982–84 dollars and then placed in 2014–15 dollars using the projections of the
Consumer Price Index. Current-dollar projections were produced by multiplying the constant-dollar projections by
projections for the Consumer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index and the other economic variables used in calculating
the projections presented in this report were placed in school year terms rather than calendar year terms.
Data and equations used for projections of current expenditures for public elementary and secondary
education
Data used to estimate the equations for revenue from state sources and current expenditures per pupil. The following
data for the period from 1973–74 to 2012–13 were used to estimate the equations:
» Current expenditures and revenues from state sources—For 1973–74 and 1975–76, the current expenditures data came
from Statistics of State School Systems, published by NCES. For 1974–75 and 1976–77, the current expenditures data came
from Revenues and Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, also published by NCES. For 1977–78
through 2012–13, these data came from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD) and unpublished data. For most years,
the sources for the past values of revenue from state sources were identical to the sources for current expenditures.
» Disposable personal income per capita—Disposable personal income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis were
divided by population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
» The ratio of fall enrollment to population data—Fall enrollment data from the CCD were divided by population data
from the U.S. Census Bureau. (See table B-5 on page 132.)
Estimated equations and model statistics for revenue from state sources and current expenditures per pupil. For the
results of the equations, see table A-15 on page 103. In each equation, the independent variables affect the dependent variable
in the expected way. In the revenues from state sources equation:
» All other things being equal, as disposable income per capita increases so does local governments’ education revenue
from state sources per capita; and
» As enrollment increases relative to the population, so does the local governments’ education revenue from state sources
per capita.
» In the current expenditures per pupil equation: All other things being equal, as disposable income per capita increases,
so does current expenditures per pupil; and
» As local governments’ education revenue from state sources per capita increases, so does current expenditures per pupil.
Projections for economic variables. Projections for economic variables, including disposable income and the Consumer
Price Index, were from the “U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model: 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections” from
the economic consulting firm, IHS Global Inc. (see supplemental table B-6). This set of projections was IHS Global Inc.’s
most recent set at the time the education projections in this report were produced. The values of all the variables from IHS
Global Inc. were placed in school-year terms. The school-year numbers were calculated by taking the average of the last two
quarters of one year and the first two quarters of the next year.
Projections for fall enrollment. The projections for fall enrollment are those presented in section 1 of this publication. The
methodology for these projections is presented in Section A.1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment, earlier in this appendix.
Projections for population. Population estimates for 1973 to 2014 and population projections for 2015 to 2025 from the U.S.
Census Bureau were used to develop the public school current expenditure projections. The set of population projections used
in this year’s Projections of Education Statistics are the Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections (December 2014).

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 101

Historical data for average daily attendance. For 1973–74 and 1975–76, these data came from Statistics of State School
Systems, published by NCES. For 1974–75 and 1976–77, the current expenditures data came from Revenues and Expenditures
for Public Elementary and Secondary Education, also published by NCES. For 1977–78 through 2012–13, these data came
from the CCD and unpublished NCES data.

Projections for average daily attendance. These projections were made by multiplying the projections for enrollment by
the average value of the ratios of average daily attendance to enrollment from 1993–94 to 2012–13; this average value was
approximately 0.93.

Accuracy of projections
Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of current expenditures for public elementary and secondary
education were calculated using the last 26 editions of Projections of Education Statistics that included projections of current
expenditures. Table F, below, shows the MAPEs for projections of current expenditures.

Table F. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projections for total and per pupil current expenditures for public
elementary and secondary education, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 1984–85 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total current expenditures 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.8 5.1 5.7 5.4 5.4
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 5.1 5.9 6.3 6.5
NOTE: Expenditures were in constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Department of Labor. MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 26 editions of Projections of Education
Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 1997–98 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024, excluding Projections of Education
Statistics to 2012 which did not include projections of current expenditures. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have
been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.

102 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-15. Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment for public elementary and secondary
schools, and education revenue from state sources per capita based on data from 1973–74 to 2012–13
Breusch-Godfrey
Serial Correlation
Dependent variable Equation1 R2 LM test statistic2 Time period
1 2 3 4 5
Current expenditures per pupil.................................. ln(CUREXP) = 1.98 + 0.51ln(PCI) + 0.19ln(SGRANT) + 0.94AR(1) 0.996 5.74 (0.057) 1973–74 to
(1.034) (2.515) (2.144) (23.733) 2012–13
Education revenue from state sources per capita... ln(SGRNT) = 8.65 + 0.93ln(PCI) + 1.42ln(ENRPOP) + 0.83AR(1) 0.984 1.57 (0.457) 1973–74 to
(1.988) (5.859) (3.078) (12.665) 2012–13

1AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process
autocorrelation present). For an explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM
for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. To estimate the model, it was first transformed test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated simultaneously by applying NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination.
a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equation. For a general CUREXP = Current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools per pupil in
discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the pres- fall enrollment in constant 1982–84 dollars.
ence of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. SGRANT = Local governments’ education revenue from state sources, per capita, in con-
(1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. stant 1982–84 dollars.
315–318. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. PCI = Disposable income per capita in constant 2000 chained dollars.
2The number in parentheses is the probability of the Chi-Square associated with the ENRPOP = Ratio of fall enrollment to the population.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test. A p value greater that 0.05 implies that we SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Public
do not reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the 5 percent significance level Elementary and Secondary Education Current Expenditure Projection Model, 1973–74
for a two-tailed test and 10 percent significance level for a one-tailed test (i.e., there is no through 2025–26. (This table was prepared April 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 103

A.5. ENROLLMENT IN DEGREE-GRANTING POSTSECONDARY
INSTITUTIONS
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projections of enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary
institutions for fall 2015 through fall 2025. Three different models were used to produce these enrollment projections:

» The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model produced projections of enrollments by attendance
status, level of student, level of institution, control of institution, sex, and age. It also produced projections of full-time-
equivalent enrollments by level of student, level of institution, and control of institution.
» The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model produced projections of enrollments by
race/ethnicity.
» The First-Time Freshmen Projection Model produced projections of enrollments of first-time freshmen by sex.

Overview of approach
Basic features of the three degree-granting enrollment projection models
The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model is the primary model for projecting enrollment in degree-
granting postsecondary institutions. For this model, enrollment rates by attendance status and sex are projected for various
age categories using either the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method or the pooled seemingly unrelated regression
method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. These rates are applied to projections of populations of the same sex and
age to produce projections of enrollment by attendance status, sex, and age. To project enrollments by level of student, level
of institution, and control of institution, rates for these characteristics are projected using single exponential smoothing and
applied to enrollment projections previously produced by the model.

The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model takes an approach similar to that of the
Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model. Enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, and race/ethnicity
are projected for the age categories using either the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method or the pooled seemingly
unrelated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The resulting rates are iteratively corrected to ensure
consistency with those projected by the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model. The adjusted rates are
then applied to projections of populations of the same sex, age, and race/ethnicity.

The First-Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model uses single exponential smoothing
to project the ratio of freshmen enrollment to undergraduate enrollment separately for males and for females. It then applies
the projected ratios to the projections of undergraduate enrollment by sex that were produced by the Enrollment in Degree-
Granting Institutions Projection Model.

The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model

The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model produces projections of enrollment counts by six levels of
detail, as well as projections of full-time-equivalent enrollments by level of student, level of institution, and control of institution.

Steps used in the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model

Step 1. Adjust age-specific enrollment counts from the U.S. Census Bureau to make them agree with the more highly aggregated
NCES enrollment counts that do not include age. The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model projects
enrollments by six levels of detail: attendance status, level of student, level of institution, control of institution, sex, and age.
While NCES does produce enrollment counts by the first five levels of detail, it does not produce data by the sixth level of
detail, age, every year. However, the U.S. Census Bureau does produce annual age-specific enrollment counts.

In step 1, the age distributions from the Census Bureau counts for 1980 to 2014 were applied to the NCES counts to
produce a set of enrollment data that breaks enrollments down by age while being consistent with NCES counts. Specifically,
the most detailed level of Census Bureau data (by attendance status, level of student, level of institution, control of
institution, sex, and age) was iteratively changed using proportions based on the more highly aggregated NCES enrollment
numbers to ensure that all sums across this most detailed level of Census enrollment data equaled the more highly aggregated
NCES enrollment totals that did not include age.
104 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology
Step 2. Calculate enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, and age category. The enrollment data were broken up into 14 age
categories, with separate age categories for individual ages 14 through 24 as well as for the age groups 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35
and over. For each of the 14 age categories, 4 enrollment rates were calculated—part-time male, full-time male, part-time female,
and full-time female—resulting in a total of 56 enrollment rates. Each of the 56 enrollment rates was calculated by dividing the
enrollment count for that combination of attendance status, sex, and age category by the total population for the corresponding
combination of sex and age category. For each combination of attendance and sex, the enrollment rate for the oldest age category
was calculated by dividing the enrollment count for those 35 and over by the total population for those 35 to 44.

Step 3. Produce projections of enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, and age category. Enrollment rates for most of the age
groups were projected using multiple linear regression. However, because enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary
institutions is negligible for ages 14, 15, and 16, these ages were not included in the multiple linear regression models.
Instead, projections for individual ages 14, 15, and 16 were produced by double exponential smoothing.

The following 11 age categories were modeled: individual ages 17 through 24 and age groups 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 and
over. For each of these age categories, enrollment rates by attendance status and sex were produced using four pooled time-
series models—one for each combination of attendance status and sex. Each model was pooled across age categories. Each
equation contained two independent variables, which were measures of

» disposable income; and

» the unemployment rate.
Either the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method or the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method with a first-
order autocorrelation correction was used to estimate each equation.

For more details on the equations used in step 3, the data used to estimate these equations, and their results, see tables A-16 through
A-18 on pages 111–113.

Step 4. Produce projections of enrollments by attendance status, sex, and age category. For each combination of attendance
status, sex, and age category, enrollment projections were produced by multiplying the projected enrollment rate for that
combination by projections of the total population with the corresponding combination of sex and age category.

Step 5. Add two additional levels of detail—level of student and level of institution—to the projected enrollments by attendance status,
sex, and age category. For this step, the 14 age categories used in the previous steps were collapsed into the following 8 categories:
ages 14 to 16, 17, 18 and 19, 20 and 21, 22 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 and over. Step 5 can be broken into three parts:

First, the historic data were used to calculate the percentage distribution of enrollment by level of student and level of institution
for each combination of attendance status, sex, and age category. Because it was assumed that there was no enrollment in 2-year
institutions at the postbaccalaureate level, three combinations of student level and institution type were used: undergraduates at
4-year institutions, undergraduates at 2-year institutions, and postbaccalaureate students at 4-year institutions.

Second, for each combination of attendance status, sex, and age category, the percentage distribution by level of student and
level of institution was projected using single exponential smoothing. A separate smoothing constant, chosen to minimize
the sum of squared forecast errors, was used in each case. The percentages were then adjusted so the sum of the categories by
attendance status, level of student, level of institution, sex, and age category would equal 100 percent.

For the projected percentage distributions from step 5 and the actual 2014 distributions, see tables A-19 and A-20 on pages 114 and 115.

Third, the projected distributions by level of student and type of institution were applied to the projected enrollments by
attendance status, sex, and age category from step 4 to obtain the enrollment projections by attendance status, level of student,
level of institution, sex, and age category.

Step 6. Add the sixth level of detail—control of institutions—to the projected enrollments in degree-granting postsecondary institutions.
In this step, the data on enrollment by age category were not used. Control of institutions was added in the following manner:

First, the historic data were used to calculate the percentage of enrollment in public institutions for each combination of
attendance status, level of student, level of institution, and sex.

Second, the percentages of enrollment in public institutions were projected using single exponential smoothing. A separate
smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used for each percentage.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 105
For the projected percentages from step 6 and the actual 2014 percentages, see table A-21 on page 116.

Third, the projected percentages were applied to the projected enrollments in each corresponding enrollment combination to
obtain projections for public institutions by attendance status, level of student, level of institution, and sex.

Fourth, the projected enrollments for public institutions were subtracted from the total to produce the projected enrollments
for private institutions.

Step 7. Produce projections of full-time-equivalent enrollment by level of student, level of institution, and control of institution.
Full-time-equivalent enrollment represents total full-time and part-time enrollment as if it were enrollment on a full-time
basis. It equals the sum of full-time enrollment plus the full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment. Full-time-equivalent
enrollment projections were produced in the following manner:

First, for each combination of level of student, level of institution, and control of institution, the historic data were used to
calculate the full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment as a percentage of part-time enrollment.

Second, for each combination of level of student, level of institution, and control of institution, the full-time equivalent of
part-time enrollment as a percentage of part-time enrollment was projected using single exponential smoothing. A separate
smoothing constant, chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used for each percentage.

Third, for each combination of level of student, level of institution, and control of institution, the projected percentages were
applied to the projections of part-time enrollment to project the full-time equivalent of the part-time enrollment.

Fourth, the projections of full-time equivalents of part-time enrollment were added to projections of full-time enrollment to
obtain projections of full-time-equivalent enrollment.

Data and equation results for the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model
Enrollment data for degree-granting postsecondary institutions. Enrollment data for 1981 to 2014 by attendance status,
level of student, level of institution, control of institution, and sex came from the NCES Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System (IPEDS). These are universe counts. The U.S. Census Bureau was the source for enrollment estimates for 1981
to 2014 by the characteristics listed above, as well as age of student.

Population data and projections. Population counts for 1980 to 2014 came from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population
projections for 2015 to 2025 are the Census Bureau’s 2014 National Population Projections of the population by sex and age
(December 2014), ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimates. For more information, see Section A.0.
Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.

Projections for economic variables. The economic variables used in developing these projections were from the “U.S.
Quarterly Macroeconomic Model: 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections” from the economic consulting firm,
IHS Global Inc. This set of projections was IHS Global Inc.’s most recent set at the time the education projections in this
report were produced.

Data and results for the equations. The following details for the equations are shown on pages 111–116:

» Table A-16 shows enrollment rates by sex, attendance status, and age for fall 2014 and projected enrollment rates for fall
2020 and fall 2025.
» Table A-17 shows the estimated equations and model statistics used to project enrollments for men by attendance
status, and table A-18 shows the estimated equations and model statistics used to project enrollment rates for women
by attendance status. The particular equations shown were selected on the basis of their statistical properties, such as
coefficients of determination (R2s), the t-statistics of the coefficients, the Durbin-Watson statistic, the Breusch-Godfrey
Serial Correlation LM test statistic, and residual plots.
» Table A-19 shows actual and projected percentage distributions of full-time students, and table A-20 shows actual and
projected percentage distributions of part-time students.
» Table A-21 shows actual and projected data for enrollment in public degree-granting institutions as a percentage of
total enrollment by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution.

106 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Accuracy of projections for the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model
Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for enrollment in degree-granting institutions were calculated using the last 18
editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table G, below, shows MAPEs for key projections of the Enrollment in Degree-
Granting Institutions Model.

Table G. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by lead time, sex, and level of institution: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education
Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total enrollment 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.0 5.5 6.3 7.1 8.1 9.8 11.3
Males 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.4 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.2 11.1 12.4
Females 1.7 2.8 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.6 6.2 7.2 9.4 10.7
4-year institutions 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.4 6.5 7.6 8.8 10.1 12.0 13.8
2-year institutions 2.6 3.9 5.2 5.4 4.5 4.2 4.9 6.2 8.1 9.0
NOTE: MAPEs for degree-granting postsecondary enrollment were calculated using the last 17 editions of Projections of Education Statistics,
from Projections of Education Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Some data have been revised from previously
published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.

The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model

The Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model projects enrollments in degree-granting
institutions by attendance status, sex, age, and race/ethnicity. The following groups are projected in this model:

» White;
» Black;
» Hispanic;
» Asian/Pacific Islander;
» American Indian/Alaska Native; and
» nonresident alien.

See the glossary for definitions of the five racial/ethnic categories and the nonresident alien category. (The race/ethnicity of
nonresident aliens is unknown, but they are considered a separate group for purposes of this analysis.)

Steps used in the Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model

Step 1. Adjust U.S. Census Bureau enrollment counts by attendance status, sex, age, and race/ethnicity to make them sum to NCES
enrollment counts by attendance status, sex, and race/ethnicity. For 1981 to 2014, the most detailed levels of Census Bureau
enrollment data (by enrollment status, sex, age, and race/ethnicity) were iteratively changed using proportions that were
based on the more highly aggregated NCES enrollment numbers to ensure that the sums across these most detailed levels of
enrollment data equaled the more highly aggregated NCES enrollment numbers that did not include age.

Step 2. Calculate enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, age category, and race/ethnicity. The enrollment data were broken
up into 14 age categories, with separate age categories for individual ages 14 through 24 as well as for the age groups 25
to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 and over. For each of the 14 age categories, enrollment rates were calculated for each combination
of attendance status, sex, and the six racial/ethnic groups, resulting in a total of 336 enrollment rates. Each of the 336
enrollment rates was calculated by dividing the enrollment count for that combination of attendance status, sex, age
category, and race/ethnicity by the total population for the corresponding combination of sex, age category, and race/
ethnicity. For each combination of attendance status, sex and racial/ethnic group, the enrollment rate for the oldest age
category was calculated by dividing the enrollment count for those 35 and over by the total population for those 35 to 44.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 107

Step 3. Produce projections of enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, age category, and race/ethnicity. Enrollment rates
for most of the age groups and racial/ethnic groups were projected using multiple linear regression. However, there were
several exceptions:

» Due to negligible enrollments for ages 14, 15, and 16, these ages were not included in the multiple linear regression models.
Instead, projections of enrollment rates for individual ages 14, 15, and 16 were produced by single exponential smoothing.
» Due to the relatively large fluctuations in the historical enrollment rates resulting from small sample sizes, American
Indian/Alaska Native enrollments were projected using single exponential smoothing.
» Since there were no applicable population counts to compute enrollment rates for nonresident aliens, their
enrollments were projected using patterns in recent historical growth.

Four racial/ethnic groups were modeled: White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander. Eleven age categories were
modeled: individual ages 17 through 24 and age groups 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 44. For each of the age categories,
projected enrollment rates by attendance status, sex, and race/ethnicity were produced using 16 pooled time-series
models—one for each combination of attendance status, sex, and the four racial/ethnic groups. Each equation included
variables measuring

» recent trends;
» economic conditions (such as disposable income); and
» demographic changes.
For more information on the equations used to project enrollment rates for the combinations of attendance status, sex, and race/
ethnicity, see tables A-22 through A-29, under “Data and equations used for the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by
Race/Ethnicity Projection Model,” below.

The final set of projected rates by attendance status, sex, age, and race/ethnicity were controlled to enrollment rates by
attendance status, sex, and age produced by the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model to ensure
consistency across models.

Step 4. Produce projections of enrollments by attendance status, sex, age category, and race/ethnicity. For each combination of
attendance status, sex, age category, and race/ethnicity, enrollment projections were produced by multiplying the projected
enrollment rate for that combination by projections of the total population with the corresponding combination of sex, age
category, and race/ethnicity.

Data and equations used for the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity
Projection Model
Enrollment data for degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity. Enrollment data for 1981 to 2014 by attendance
status, sex, and race/ethnicity came from the NCES Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). These are
universe counts. The U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey was the source for enrollment estimates for 1981 to
2014 by the characteristics listed above, as well as age of student.

Population data and projections by race/ethnicity. Population counts for 1981 to 2014 came from the U.S. Census
Bureau, Population Estimates series. Population projections for 2015 to 2025 are the Census Bureau’s 2012 National
Population Projections of the population by sex, age and race/ethnicity (December 2014), ratio-adjusted to line up with most
recent historical estimates.

Projections for economic variables. The economic variables used in developing these projections were from the “U.S.
Quarterly Macroeconomic Model: 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections” from the economic consulting firm,
IHS Global Inc. This set of projections was IHS Global Inc.’s most recent set at the time the education projections in this
report were produced.

Estimated equations and model statistics. Tables A-22 through A-29 show the estimated equations and model statistics
used to project enrollment rates for the various combinations of attendance status, sex, and race/ethnicity.

108 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Accuracy of projections for the Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model
Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for enrollment in degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity were calculated
using the last 10 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table H, below, shows MAPEs for key projections of the
Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model.

Table H. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions,
by lead time and race/ethnicity: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of Education Statistics to
2015 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total enrollment 1.6 2.6 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.3 7.4 8.5 10.7 12.4
White 2.3 4.5 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.8 7.1 7.8
Black 3.6 7.9 11.9 13.9 13.4 12.5 9.9 7.8 5.1 3.3
Hispanic 4.1 6.4 9.8 12.9 16.6 19.3 20.8 21.2 21.1 22.1
Asian/Pacific Islander 3.4 5.6 7.1 8.4 8.1 7.6 6.7 7.4 9.3 8.4
American Indian/Alaska Native 5.7 8.5 12.1 14.4 17.2 22.9 31.6 35.6 42.0 47.1
— Not available.
NOTE: MAPEs for total degree-granting postsecondary institution enrollments were calculated using the last 18 editions of Projections of Education
Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2007 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. MAPEs for degree-granting
postsecondary institution enrollment by race/ethnicity were calculated using the last 10 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, from
Projections of Education Statistics to 2015 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers.
Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

The First-Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model

The First-Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model produced projections of first-time
freshmen enrollment in degree-granting institutions by sex.

Steps used in the First-Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model
The projections were produced in the following manner:

Step 1. Calculate the ratio of first-time freshmen enrollment to undergraduate enrollment. For 1975 to 2014, the ratio of first-
time freshmen enrollment to undergraduate enrollment was calculated for males and females.

Step 2. Project the ratio of first-time freshmen enrollment to undergraduate enrollment. The percentages of undergraduate
enrollment for both males and females were projected using single exponential smoothing. A separate smoothing constant,
chosen to minimize the sum of squared forecast errors, was used for each percentage.

Step 3. Apply the projected ratio to projected undergraduate enrollment. The projected ratios were applied to projections of undergraduate
enrollment by sex from the Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model to yield projections of first-time freshmen enrollment.

Assumptions underlying this method

This method assumes that the future pattern in the trend of first-time freshmen enrollment will be the same as that for
undergraduate enrollment.

Data used in the First-Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model
Undergraduate and freshmen enrollment data for degree-granting institutions. Undergraduate and freshmen enrollment
data by sex for 1975 to 2014 came from the NCES Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS).

Projections of undergraduate enrollment. Projections of undergraduate enrollment by sex came from the Enrollment in
Degree-Granting Institutions Model, discussed earlier in this section of appendix A.

Accuracy of projections for the First-Time Freshmen Enrollment Projection Model

Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for enrollment in degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity were calculated
using the last six editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table I, below, shows MAPEs for key projections of the First-
Time Freshmen Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 109
Table I. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected first-time freshmen enrollment in degree-granting
postsecondary institutions, by lead time and sex: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total first-time freshmen enrollment 3.2 5.8 7.4 7.1 5.7 2.4 3.4 — — —
Males 3.2 5.8 7.0 6.7 5.1 2.5 0.1 — — —
Females 3.4 5.9 7.8 7.4 6.8 4.6 6.4 — — —
— Not available.
NOTE: MAPEs for first-time freshmen enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were calculated using the last 7 editions of
Projections of Education Statistics, from Projections of Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. Calculations
were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

110 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-16. Actual and projected enrollment rates of all students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, attendance status, and
age: Fall 2014, fall 2020, and fall 2025
Projected
Sex, attendance status, and age Actual 2014 2020 2025
1 2 3 4
Males
Full-time
16 years old .............................................. 0.7 0.8 0.8
17 years old .............................................. 3.4 3.7 3.9
18 years old .............................................. 27.9 29.8 31.0
19 years old .............................................. 35.9 38.0 39.3
20 years old .............................................. 36.3 38.3 39.5
21 years old .............................................. 32.4 34.3 35.5
22 years old .............................................. 22.9 24.4 25.4
23 years old .............................................. 15.4 16.5 17.4
24 years old .............................................. 13.9 15.0 15.8
25 to 29 years old ..................................... 6.4 6.9 7.3
30 to 34 years old ..................................... 2.0 2.1 2.3
35 to 44 years old ..................................... 1.8 1.9 2.0
Part-time
16 years old .............................................. 0.3 0.1 0.1
17 years old .............................................. 0.6 0.6 0.7
18 years old .............................................. 6.0 6.0 6.3
19 years old .............................................. 7.9 8.0 8.2
20 years old .............................................. 10.8 10.9 11.2
21 years old .............................................. 9.4 9.4 9.7
22 years old .............................................. 10.7 10.9 11.3
23 years old .............................................. 6.8 7.0 7.3
24 years old .............................................. 5.5 5.7 5.9
25 to 29 years old ..................................... 5.3 5.5 5.8
30 to 34 years old ..................................... 3.3 3.4 3.6
35 to 44 years old ..................................... 4.4 4.6 4.8
Females
Full-time
16 years old .............................................. 0.4 0.6 0.6
17 years old .............................................. 3.1 3.5 3.5
18 years old .............................................. 40.7 43.9 44.9
19 years old .............................................. 50.6 54.6 57.0
20 years old .............................................. 42.3 45.9 48.1
21 years old .............................................. 36.8 40.3 42.5
22 years old .............................................. 27.6 30.0 30.6
23 years old .............................................. 16.7 18.8 20.0
24 years old .............................................. 16.2 17.9 18.4
25 to 29 years old ..................................... 7.1 8.0 8.3
30 to 34 years old ..................................... 3.3 3.8 4.0
35 to 44 years old ..................................... 3.1 3.6 3.7
Part-time
16 years old .............................................. # 0.1 0.1
17 years old .............................................. 2.3 2.7 2.9
18 years old .............................................. 6.8 7.3 7.7
19 years old .............................................. 7.0 7.2 7.3
20 years old .............................................. 11.5 12.0 12.3
21 years old .............................................. 14.3 15.0 15.4
22 years old .............................................. 12.7 13.8 14.6
23 years old .............................................. 10.2 11.2 11.9
24 years old .............................................. 12.1 13.3 14.2
25 to 29 years old ..................................... 7.4 8.0 8.3
30 to 34 years old ..................................... 5.0 5.5 5.6
35 to 44 years old ..................................... 7.6 8.3 8.4

#Rounds to zero. ing Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025; and U.S. Department of Commerce,
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte- Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and Economic Characteristics of Stu-
grated Postsecondary Education Data System, Spring 2015; Enrollment in Degree-Grant- dents,” 2014. (This table was prepared February 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 111

Table A-17. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of males at degree-granting postsecondary
institutions based on data from 1981 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -7.10 0.167 -42.59 1.00 2.12*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -4.38 0.192 -22.88
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -4.02 0.116 -34.59
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -4.06 0.120 -33.67
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -4.20 0.119 -35.18
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -4.64 0.119 -38.88
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -5.13 0.119 -43.23
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -5.45 0.141 -38.58
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -6.12 0.128 -47.88
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -7.10 0.138 -51.48
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -7.60 0.166 -45.80
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the
present period and the previous two periods..... 0.64 0.019 34.02
Log age-specific unemployment rate for men .......... 0.24 0.019 12.59
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds.............. 0.56 0.104 5.39
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds.............. 0.86 0.067 12.76
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds.............. 0.00 0.126 0.03
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds.............. 0.38 0.135 2.85
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds.............. 0.18 0.135 1.34
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds.............. 0.07 0.136 0.50
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds.............. -0.17 0.137 -1.22
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds.............. 0.73 0.116 6.34
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds ... 0.54 0.127 4.26
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds ... 0.66 0.124 5.28
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds ... 0.78 0.098 7.87
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -10.89 0.967 -11.26 0.86 2.14*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -7.95 0.762 -10.43
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -7.51 0.770 -9.75
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -7.43 0.766 -9.71
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -7.49 0.763 -9.81
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -7.68 0.764 -10.05
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -7.72 0.762 -10.13
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -7.81 0.762 -10.25
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -8.17 0.768 -10.64
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -8.64 0.769 -11.24
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -8.60 0.765 -11.24
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the
present period and the previous two periods..... 0.53 0.080 6.58
Log unemployment rate ........................................... 0.30 0.077 3.86
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds.............. 0.09 0.146 0.64
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds.............. 0.08 0.155 0.52
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds.............. 0.52 0.133 3.90
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds.............. 0.38 0.145 2.64
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds.............. 0.28 0.143 1.96
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds.............. 0.31 0.147 2.09
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds.............. 0.06 0.154 0.42
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds.............. 0.09 0.173 0.50
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds ... 0.62 0.126 4.90
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds ... 0.73 0.085 8.65
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds ... 0.60 0.142 4.24

* p < .05. equations is from 1981 to 2014, and the number of observations is 374 after the correction for
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Models,
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
(1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to esti- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment
mate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was pre-
method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to estimate both pared March 2016.)

112 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-18. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of females at degree-granting postsecondary
institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -9.53 0.164 -57.96 1.00 1.79*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -6.70 0.148 -45.33
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -6.52 0.143 -45.71
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -6.58 0.146 -45.07
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -6.78 0.146 -46.33
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -7.45 0.147 -50.57
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -7.93 0.149 -53.05
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -8.31 0.150 -55.43
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -8.85 0.155 -56.90
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -9.55 0.155 -61.74
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -9.77 0.155 -63.10
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the
present period and the previous two periods..... 1.18 0.025 47.93
Log age-specific unemployment rate for women ..... 0.38 0.035 10.94
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -12.85 0.483 -26.58 0.90 2.21*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -10.09 0.419 -24.11
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -9.63 0.418 -23.02
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -9.73 0.416 -23.40
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -9.70 0.418 -23.18
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -9.91 0.415 -23.86
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -9.99 0.415 -24.07
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -10.02 0.416 -24.07
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -10.42 0.424 -24.56
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -10.81 0.438 -24.67
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -10.50 0.441 -23.81
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita
disposable income in 2000 dollars, using the
present period and the previous two periods..... 0.85 0.046 18.56
Log unemployment rate ........................................... 0.10 0.029 3.49
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds.............. 0.27 0.119 2.30
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds.............. 0.27 0.136 1.98
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds.............. 0.29 0.117 2.48
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds.............. -0.06 0.123 -0.47
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds.............. 0.38 0.120 3.14
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds.............. -0.03 0.127 -0.27
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds.............. -0.15 0.125 -1.21
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds.............. 0.32 0.105 3.03
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds ... 0.67 0.109 6.15
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds ... 0.76 0.071 10.69
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds ... 0.81 0.071 11.45

* p < .05. from 1981 to 2014. The number of observations for the full-time equation is 374 and the num-
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for ber of observations for the part-time equation, after the correction for autocorrelation, is 363.
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, &
(1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to esti- Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
mate the full-time and equation was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method. The SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment
regression method used to estimate the part-time equation was the pooled seemingly unre- in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was pre-
lated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to pared March 2016.)
estimate the full-time equation was from 1980 to 2014 and that for the part-time equation was

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 113

Table A-19. Actual and projected percentages of full-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student
level, and level of institution: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2025
Males Females
Age group, student level, and level of institution Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025 Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025
1 2 3 4 5
18 and 19 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 69.1 65.6 71.2 69.4
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 30.4 33.9 28.8 30.4
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 0.4 0.4 # 0.2
20 and 21 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 77.9 76.4 82.8 79.6
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 18.9 20.6 15.1 18.1
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 3.2 3.0 2.1 2.3
22 to 24 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 67.9 64.2 59.2 60.2
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 13.3 16.7 16.4 17.7
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 18.8 19.1 24.4 22.1
25 to 29 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 41.4 43.5 42.3 41.9
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 23.0 18.5 24.5 23.5
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 35.6 38.0 33.2 34.7
30 to 34 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 42.1 43.6 49.4 41.4
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 16.4 20.4 21.0 30.4
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 41.5 36.1 29.6 28.1
35 years and over
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 46.1 40.7 47.9 41.9
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 24.3 24.9 22.6 30.8
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 29.7 34.3 29.5 27.3

#Rounds to zero. grated Postsecondary Education Data System, Spring 2015; Enrollment in Degree-
NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Some data have been revised Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025; and U.S. Department of Com-
from previously published figures. merce, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and Economic Characteris-
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte- tics of Students,” 2014. (This table was prepared February 2016.)

114 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-20. Actual and projected percentages of part-time students at degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex, age group, student
level, and level of institution: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2025
Males Females
Age, student level, and level of institution Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025 Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025
1 2 3 4 5
18 and 19 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 16.1 20.0 28.7 19.6
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 83.9 80.0 71.3 80.2
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... # # # 0.1
20 and 21 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 18.2 26.3 20.6 27.9
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 78.2 72.7 77.8 70.8
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 3.6 1.0 1.6 1.3
22 to 24 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 43.2 33.7 42.2 37.2
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 51.4 58.7 44.7 50.9
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 5.4 7.6 13.0 11.9
25 to 29 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 40.0 29.4 30.1 29.2
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 37.6 50.6 47.3 51.2
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 22.4 20.0 22.7 19.7
30 to 34 years old
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 33.6 32.4 24.9 29.0
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 42.1 42.9 51.9 46.2
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 24.3 24.7 23.2 24.8
35 years and over
Undergraduate, 4-year institutions........................... 30.9 31.2 34.0 31.6
Undergraduate, 2-year institutions........................... 46.2 42.3 42.9 43.5
Postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ..................... 22.9 26.6 23.1 25.0

#Rounds to zero. grated Postsecondary Education Data System, Spring 2015; Enrollment in Degree-
NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Some data have been revised Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025; and U.S. Department of Com-
from previously published figures. merce, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and Economic Characteris-
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte- tics of Students,” 2014. (This table was prepared February 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 115

Table A-21. Actual and projected enrollment in public degree-granting postsecondary institutions as a percentage of total postsecondary
enrollment, by sex, attendance status, student level, and level of institution: Fall 2014, and fall 2015 through fall 2025
Males Females
Attendance status, student
level, and level of institution Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025 Actual 2014 Projected 2015 through 2025
Full-time, undergraduate, 4-year institutions................ 66.4 66.4 62.6 62.6
Part-time, undergraduate, 4-year institutions............... 68.8 68.8 64.3 64.3
Full-time, undergraduate, 2-year institutions................ 92.3 92.3 87.5 87.5
Part-time, undergraduate, 2-year institutions............... 99.4 99.4 98.7 98.7
Full-time, postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions ......... 49.4 49.4 45.6 45.6
Part-time, postbaccalaureate, 4-year institutions......... 51.6 51.6 48.8 48.8

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Inte- Granting Institutions Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This table was prepared Feb-
grated Postsecondary Education Data System, Spring 2015; and Enrollment in Degree- ruary 2016.)

Table A-22. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White males at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -9.23 0.290 -31.86 0.99 1.56*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -6.26 0.280 -22.32
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -5.98 0.278 -21.52
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -6.15 0.278 -22.14
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -6.28 0.278 -22.58
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -6.78 0.278 -24.36
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -7.34 0.278 -26.36
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -7.71 0.280 -27.57
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -8.57 0.278 -30.77
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -9.61 0.280 -34.29
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -10.22 0.281 -36.39
Log of White per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.29 0.014 20.19
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -5.13 0.520 -9.87 0.86 1.8*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -1.56 0.125 -12.48
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -1.10 0.130 -8.47
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -1.04 0.122 -8.48
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -1.07 0.123 -8.66
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -1.28 0.123 -10.42
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -1.33 0.120 -11.09
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -1.36 0.118 -11.57
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -1.69 0.116 -14.52
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -2.14 0.118 -18.19
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -2.17 0.115 -18.93
Log of real total private compensation
employment cost index ...................................... 1.45 0.152 9.50

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173. Race cat-
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, egories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of (This table was prepared March 2016.)

116 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-23. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of White females at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -12.97 0.446 -29.06 0.99 1.72*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -10.03 0.438 -22.87
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -9.85 0.437 -22.54
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -10.08 0.437 -23.07
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -10.31 0.438 -23.57
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -11.05 0.438 -25.25
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -11.60 0.439 -26.45
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -11.98 0.438 -27.32
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -12.78 0.438 -29.19
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -13.52 0.438 -30.89
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -13.71 0.438 -31.32
Log of White per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.50 0.022 22.42
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -10.13 0.401 -25.26 0.70 1.82*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -6.58 0.323 -20.39
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -6.08 0.324 -18.76
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -6.18 0.324 -19.06
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -6.23 0.323 -19.25
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -6.44 0.322 -20.02
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -6.51 0.323 -20.16
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -6.53 0.321 -20.33
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -6.85 0.320 -21.39
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -7.23 0.322 -22.46
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -6.89 0.320 -21.53
Log of real total private compensation
employment cost index ...................................... 0.22 0.016 13.57

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173. Race cat-
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, egories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of (This table was prepared March 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 117

Table A-24. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black males at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -11.10 0.657 -16.89 0.94 1.81*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -8.87 0.651 -13.61
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -8.57 0.651 -13.17
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -8.63 0.651 -13.25
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -8.87 0.652 -13.61
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -9.09 0.652 -13.94
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -9.56 0.654 -14.60
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -9.81 0.653 -15.03
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -10.59 0.653 -16.22
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -11.38 0.655 -17.37
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -11.71 0.654 -17.89
Log of Black per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.39 0.035 11.19
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -12.63 0.734 -17.20 0.50 1.98*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -11.13 0.565 -19.70
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -10.37 0.557 -18.63
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -10.27 0.557 -18.42
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -10.25 0.551 -18.61
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -10.32 0.558 -18.49
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -10.45 0.562 -18.60
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -10.57 0.563 -18.79
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -10.65 0.550 -19.37
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -10.92 0.548 -19.91
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -10.93 0.546 -20.01
Log of Black per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.40 0.029 13.64

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173. Race cat-
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, egories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through 2025.
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of (This table was prepared March 2016.)

118 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Black females at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -14.47 0.632 -22.91 0.96 1.79*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -12.20 0.624 -19.55
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -11.97 0.623 -19.20
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -12.21 0.624 -19.56
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -12.39 0.624 -19.87
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -12.81 0.624 -20.54
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -13.10 0.625 -20.97
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -13.45 0.626 -21.49
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -14.19 0.626 -22.68
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -14.67 0.625 -23.48
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -15.01 0.626 -23.98
Log of Black per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.61 0.033 18.12
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -13.92 0.857 -16.24 0.46 1.83*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -11.94 0.841 -14.20
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -11.43 0.839 -13.63
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -11.42 0.838 -13.63
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -11.34 0.837 -13.55
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -11.32 0.836 -13.53
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -11.41 0.837 -13.64
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -11.50 0.837 -13.74
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -11.67 0.833 -14.00
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -11.83 0.833 -14.20
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -11.65 0.833 -13.98
Log of Black per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.48 0.045 10.82

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173. Race cat-
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, egories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of 2025. (This table was prepared May 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 119

Table A-26. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic males at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -12.39 0.756 -16.40 0.93 1.89*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -10.28 0.750 -13.71
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -10.05 0.750 -13.41
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -10.25 0.750 -13.66
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -10.47 0.751 -13.93
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -10.92 0.751 -14.54
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -11.22 0.752 -14.92
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -11.41 0.751 -15.20
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -12.21 0.751 -16.25
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -13.06 0.752 -17.37
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -13.54 0.754 -17.96
Log of Hispanic per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.46 0.041 11.22
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -12.40 0.731 -16.96 0.59 1.72*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -10.24 0.548 -18.69
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -9.89 0.551 -17.97
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -9.78 0.547 -17.89
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -9.81 0.548 -17.92
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -10.19 0.547 -18.65
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -10.17 0.552 -18.43
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -10.38 0.547 -18.97
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -10.65 0.540 -19.73
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -11.18 0.543 -20.58
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -11.16 0.539 -20.69
Log of Hispanic per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.40 0.029 13.52

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Mod-
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for els, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment
(1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to esti- in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through 2025. (This
mate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression table was prepared March 2016.)
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of

120 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-27. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Hispanic females at degree-granting
postsecondary institutions based on data from 1980 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -17.62 0.681 -25.85 0.93 1.89*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -15.11 0.670 -22.54
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -14.98 0.669 -22.38
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -15.29 0.670 -22.84
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -15.40 0.670 -22.97
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -16.01 0.671 -23.84
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -16.28 0.671 -24.25
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -16.75 0.674 -24.86
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -17.41 0.669 -26.02
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -18.07 0.671 -26.93
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -18.44 0.672 -27.42
Log of Hispanic per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.75 0.036 20.71
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -14.54 0.642 -22.66 0.60 1.94*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -12.48 0.622 -20.07
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -12.10 0.621 -19.47
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -12.35 0.623 -19.82
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -12.19 0.623 -19.58
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -12.50 0.624 -20.03
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -12.41 0.620 -20.03
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -12.67 0.622 -20.37
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -13.00 0.615 -21.13
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -13.40 0.616 -21.76
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -13.29 0.616 -21.58
Log of Hispanic per capita disposable income
in current dollars ................................................ 0.54 0.033 16.30

* p < .05. observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–173.
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression 2025. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1980 to 2014. The number of

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 121

Table A-28. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander males at degree-
granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -3.91 0.592 -14.87 0.93 1.92*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -1.18 0.581 -10.11
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -0.94 0.583 -9.69
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -1.00 0.590 -9.94
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -0.96 0.591 -9.87
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -1.31 0.591 -10.48
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -1.60 0.592 -10.88
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -1.91 0.593 -11.46
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -2.67 0.602 -13.19
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -3.71 0.605 -14.98
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -4.52 0.604 -16.47
Log of Asian/Pacific Islander per capita disposable
income in current dollars.................................... 0.06 0.028 1.97
Log unemployment rate for Asian/Pacific Islanders . 0.17 0.042 4.02
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -1.96 0.918 -2.14 0.64 1.89*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -0.30 0.668 -0.45
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. 0.47 0.655 0.71
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. 0.25 0.667 0.38
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. 0.28 0.665 0.41
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. 0.29 0.672 0.42
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. 0.12 0.658 0.18
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. 0.00 0.655 -0.01
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -0.42 0.646 -0.65
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -1.10 0.650 -1.70
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -1.33 0.645 -2.06
Log of Asian/Pacific Islander level of educational
attainment per household .................................. 0.12 0.040 3.06

* p < .05. The number of observations equal to 286. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D.
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.,
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and Dinardo, pp. 165–173. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method used to SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regres- ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1989 through
sion method. The time period used to estimate the part-time equation is from 1989 to 2014. 2025. (This table was prepared March 2016.)

122 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Table A-29. Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time enrollment rates of Asian/Pacific Islander females at degree-
granting postsecondary institutions based on data from 1989 to 2014
Independent variable Coefficient Standard error t-statistic R2 D.W. statistic
1 2 3 4 5 6
Full-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. -6.45 0.630 -10.24 0.97 1.87*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -4.03 0.615 -6.55
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. -3.56 0.619 -5.76
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. -3.84 0.616 -6.24
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. -3.84 0.615 -6.25
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. -4.36 0.617 -7.06
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. -4.68 0.615 -7.62
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. -5.20 0.624 -8.32
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... -6.13 0.614 -9.99
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -7.34 0.617 -11.90
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -7.92 0.617 -12.84
Log of Asian/Pacific Islander per capita disposable
income in current dollars.................................... 0.20 0.032 6.30
Part-time
Intercept term for 17-year-olds................................. 1.38 0.266 5.20 0.69 2.06*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds................................. -1.53 0.823 -1.86
Intercept term for 19-year-olds................................. 0.02 0.803 0.02
Intercept term for 20-year-olds................................. 0.59 0.819 0.72
Intercept term for 21-year-olds................................. 0.29 0.809 0.36
Intercept term for 22-year-olds................................. 0.93 0.801 1.15
Intercept term for 23-year-olds................................. 0.61 0.800 0.77
Intercept term for 24-year-olds................................. 0.36 0.797 0.46
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds ...................... 0.29 0.804 0.36
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds ...................... -0.26 0.791 -0.33
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds ...................... -0.87 0.793 -1.10
Log of Asian/Pacific Islander per capita disposable
income in current dollars.................................... 1.02 0.191 5.34
Log of Asian/Pacific Islander level of educational
attainment per household .................................. 1.38 0.266 5.20

* p < .05. The number of observations is 286. For additional information, see Intriligator, M.D. (1978).
NOTE: R2 = Coefficient of determination. D.W. statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., pp. 165–
autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnston, J., and 173. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity.
Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill. The regression method SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enroll-
used to estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated ment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1989 through 2025. (This
regression method. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1989 to 2014. table was prepared March 2016.)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 123

A.6. POSTSECONDARY DEGREES CONFERRED
Projections in this edition
This edition of Projections of Education Statistics presents projections of postsecondary degrees conferred by level of degree and
sex of recipient for 2014–15 through 2025–26.

Overview of approach
Basic approach
Projections of associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees for males and females were produced using forecasting
equations that relate degrees conferred to full-time enrollment in degree-granting institutions by sex, student level
(undergraduate or postbaccalaureate), and institution level (2-year or 4-year).

Degrees Conferred Projection Model

Procedures used to project degrees
For all degree levels, projections of degrees conferred were made separately for males and for females. The projections for
males and females were then summed to get projections of the total number of degrees.

Multiple linear regression was used to project associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees based on enrollment
variables for males and females. The enrollment variables used for the different levels of degrees are briefly described below.

For details and results of the regression analyses used to project associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees, see table A-30,
under “Data and equations used to project degrees,” later in this section.

Associate’s degrees. Projections were based on full-time undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions by sex. Males’ projections
of associate’s degrees were based on current full-time enrollment and full-time enrollment lagged 2 years. Females’ projections
of associate’s degrees were based on current full-time enrollment and full-time enrollment lagged 1 and 2 years.

Bachelor’s degrees. Projections were based on full-time undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions by sex. For males and for
females, bachelor’s degree projections were based on current full-time enrollment and full-time enrollment lagged 2 years.

Master’s degrees. Projections were based on full-time postbaccalaureate enrollment by sex. Males’ projections of master’s degrees
were based on current full-time enrollment and full-time enrollment lagged 1 year. Females’ projections of master’s degrees
were based on current full-time enrollment.

Doctor’s degrees. Projections were based on full-time postbaccalaureate enrollment by sex. For males and for females,
doctor’s degree projections were based on current full-time postbaccalaureate enrollment and full-time postbaccalaureate
enrollment lagged 1 and 2 years.

Data and equations used to project degrees

Enrollment data and projections for degree-granting institutions. Historical enrollment data by sex, level of student, and
level of institution came from the NCES Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). For the time period
used for each level of degree, see table A-30 on page 126. The enrollment projections used are those produced for this edition
of Projections of Education Statistics. For more information about the enrollment projections, see Section A.5. Enrollment in
Degree-granting postsecondary Institutions, earlier in this appendix.

Data on degrees awarded at all levels. Historical data by level of degree and sex of recipient came from the NCES Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Associate’s and bachelor’s degrees were projected using data from 1970–71
to 2013–14 and master’s and doctor’s degrees were projected using data from 1980–81 to 2013–14.

Estimated equations and model statistics. For details on the equations used to project associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and
doctor’s degrees, see table A-30 on page 126. The equations shown were selected on the basis of their statistical properties, such
as coefficients of determination (R2s), the t-statistics of the coefficients, the Durbin-Watson statistic, the Breusch-Godfrey Serial
Correlation LM test statistic, and residual plots.

124 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

Accuracy of projections
Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred by degree-granting institutions
were calculated using the last seven editions of Projections of Education Statistics. Table J, below, shows MAPEs projections of
associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred. No MAPEs were calculated for master’s and doctor’s degrees as currently defined
because the current models have only been used for four other editions.

Table J. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of projected associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred by degree-
granting postsecondary institutions, by lead time: MAPEs constructed using projections from Projections of
Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

Lead time (years)

Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Associate’s degrees 2.9 5.5 8.9 12.7 15.4 16.4 16.6 — — —
Bachelor’s degrees 0.7 0.6 0.9 2.7 4.5 6.2 7.1 — — —
— Not available.
NOTE: MAPEs for associate’s and bachelor’s degrees conferred were calculated using the last seven editions of Projections of Education Statistics,
from Projections of Education Statistics to 2018 through Projections of Education Statistics to 2024. No MAPEs were calculated for master’s and
doctor’s degrees as currently defined because the current models have only been used for three other editions. Calculations were made using
unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was
prepared March 2016.)

For more information about MAPEs, see Section A.0. Introduction to Projection Methodology, earlier in this appendix.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 125

Table A-30. Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex based on data from 1970–71 to 2013–14
Breusch-Godfrey
Serial Correlation
Dependent variable Equation1 R2 LM test statistic2 Time period
1 2 3 4 5
Associate’s degrees, males ......................................... DASSOCM = 3151.7 + 83.5DUGFT2M + 97.0DUGFT2ML2 0.51 3.55 (0.169) 1970–71 to
(2.54) (4.33) (4.98) 2013–14
Associate’s degrees, females ...................................... DLOGASSOCW = # + 0.9DLOGUGFT2WS3 + .5MA(1) 0.80 5.67 (0.59) 1970–71 to
† (7.92) (3.95) 2013–14
Bachelor’s degrees, males........................................... DBACHM = 515.4 + 56.1DUGFT4M + 152.9DUGFT4ML2 0.75 0.70 (0.706) 1970–71 to
(0.44) (3.07) (8.69) 2013–14
Bachelor’s degrees, females........................................ DBACHW = 3822.2 + 32.5DUGFT4W + 154.1DUGFT4WL2 0.65 1.65 (0.439) 1970–71 to
(2.12) (1.71) (7.43) 2013–14
Master’s degrees, males.............................................. PCHMASTM = # + 0.6PCHPBFTM + 0.5PCHPBFTML1 0.67 1.08 (0.583) 1980–81 to
† (4.48) (3.37) 2013–14
Master’s degrees, females........................................... PCHMASTW = # + 0.5PCHPBFTW + 0.5AR(1) 0.58 3.27 (0.195) 1980–81 to
† (2.95) (3.91) 2013–14
Doctor’s degrees, males .............................................. DDOCM = -357.4 + 59.8DPBFTML1 + 48.4DPBFTML2 0.54 1.48 (0.477) 1980–81 to
(-1.57) (3.00) (2.43) 2013–14
Doctor’s degrees, females ........................................... DDOCW = 621.8 + 19.9DPBFTWL1 + 46.1DPBFTWL2 0.46 0.12 (0.944) 1980–81 to
(2.11) (1.79) (3.95) 2013–14

† Not applicable. DDOCM = First difference of doctor’s degrees awarded to males.

# Rounds to zero. DDOCW = First difference of doctor’s degrees awarded to females.
1
AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated to account for first-order autocorrelation. To estimate DUGFT2M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions.
the model, it was first transformed into a nonlinear model and then the coefficients were estimated DUGFT2ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions,
simultaneously by applying a Marquardt nonlinear least squares algorithm to the transformed equa- lagged two periods.
tion. MA(1) indicates that the model was estimated to incorporate moving average of the residual DLOGUGFT2WS3 = First difference of the sum of the full-time female undergraduate enrollment in
into model fit. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to 2-year institutions over the present year and the previous 2 years.
forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and DUGFT4M = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
Lee, T. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. DUGFT4ML2 = First difference of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions,
315–318. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. lagged two periods.
2The number in parentheses is the probability of the Chi-Square associated with the Breusch-
DUGFT4W = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions.
Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test. A p value greater that 0.05 implies that we do not reject the DUGFT4WL2 = First difference of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions,
null hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the 5 percent significance level for a two-tailed test or 10 lagged two periods.
percent significance level for a one-tailed test (i.e., there is no autocorrelation present). For an PCHPBFTM = Percentage change in full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment.
explanation of the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test statistic, see Greene, W. (2000). PCHPBFTML1 = Percentage change in full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged 1 year.
Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. PCHPBFTW = Percentage change in full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment.
NOTE: R2 is the coefficient of determination. DPBFTML1 = First difference of full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged 1 year.
DASSOCM = First difference of associate’s degrees awarded to males. DPBFTML2 = First difference of full-time male postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged 2 years.
DLOGASSOCW = First difference of the log of associate’s degrees awarded to females. DPBFTWL1 = First difference of full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged 1 year.
DBACHM = First difference of bachelor’s degrees awarded to males. DPBFTWL2 = First difference of full-time female postbaccalaureate enrollment lagged 2 years.
DBACHW = First difference of bachelor’s degrees awarded to females. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Con-
PCHMASTM = Percentage change in master’s degrees awarded to males. ferred Projection Model, 1970–71 through 2025–26. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
PCHMASTW = Percentage change in master’s degrees awarded to females.

126 Appendix A: Introduction to Projection Methodology

 Appendix B
Supplementary Tables

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 127

Table B-1. Annual number of births: 1946 through 2014
Number of births, Number of births,
Calendar year in thousands Calendar year in thousands
1 2 1 2
1946.................................................................................................. 3,426 1981 ................................................................................................ 3,629
1947.................................................................................................. 3,834 1982 ................................................................................................ 3,681
1948.................................................................................................. 3,655 1983 ................................................................................................ 3,639
1949.................................................................................................. 3,667 1984 ................................................................................................ 3,669
1950.................................................................................................. 3,645 1985 ................................................................................................ 3,761
1951.................................................................................................. 3,845 1986 ................................................................................................ 3,757
1952.................................................................................................. 3,933 1987 ................................................................................................ 3,809
1953.................................................................................................. 3,989 1988 ................................................................................................ 3,910
1954.................................................................................................. 4,102 1989 ................................................................................................ 3,494
1955.................................................................................................. 4,128 1990 ................................................................................................ 4,158
1956.................................................................................................. 4,244 1991 ................................................................................................ 4,111
1957.................................................................................................. 4,332 1992 ................................................................................................ 4,065
1958.................................................................................................. 4,279 1993 ................................................................................................ 4,000
1959.................................................................................................. 4,313 1994 ................................................................................................ 3,953
1960.................................................................................................. 4,258 1995 ................................................................................................ 3,900
1961.................................................................................................. 4,268 1996 ................................................................................................ 3,891
1962.................................................................................................. 4,167 1997 ................................................................................................ 3,881
1963.................................................................................................. 4,098 1998 ................................................................................................ 3,942
1964.................................................................................................. 4,027 1999 ................................................................................................ 3,959
1965.................................................................................................. 3,760 2000 ................................................................................................ 4,059
1966.................................................................................................. 3,606 2001 ................................................................................................ 4,026
1967.................................................................................................. 3,521 2002 ................................................................................................ 4,022
1968.................................................................................................. 3,502 2003 ................................................................................................ 4,090
1969.................................................................................................. 3,600 2004 ................................................................................................ 4,112
1970.................................................................................................. 3,731 2005 ................................................................................................ 4,138
1971.................................................................................................. 3,556 2006 ................................................................................................ 4,266
1972.................................................................................................. 3,258 2007 ................................................................................................ 4,316
1973.................................................................................................. 3,137 2008 ................................................................................................ 4,248
1974.................................................................................................. 3,160 2009 ................................................................................................ 4,131
1975.................................................................................................. 3,144 2010 ................................................................................................ 3,999
1976.................................................................................................. 3,168 2011 ................................................................................................ 3,954
1977.................................................................................................. 3,327 2012 ................................................................................................ 3,953
1978.................................................................................................. 3,333 2013 ................................................................................................ 3,932
1979.................................................................................................. 3,494 2014 ................................................................................................ 3,988
1980.................................................................................................. 3,612

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. tistics (NCHS), National Vital Statistics Reports, various years. (This table was prepared
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Sta- January 2016.)

128 Appendix B: Supplementary Tables

Table B-2. Actual and projected prekindergarten- and kindergarten-age populations, by age: 2000 through 2025
[In thousands]

Year (July 1) 3- to 5-year-olds 3-year-olds 4-year-olds 5-year-olds

1 2 3 4 5
Actual
2000............................................................................. 11,691 3,821 3,902 3,968
2001............................................................................. 11,540 3,803 3,827 3,910
2002............................................................................. 11,454 3,804 3,813 3,837
2003............................................................................. 11,501 3,861 3,817 3,824
2004............................................................................. 11,714 4,008 3,877 3,830
2005............................................................................. 11,866 3,943 4,030 3,893
2006............................................................................. 11,987 3,966 3,971 4,051
2007............................................................................. 11,996 4,004 3,998 3,993
2008............................................................................. 12,058 3,992 4,041 4,024
2009............................................................................. 12,129 4,026 4,033 4,070
2010............................................................................. 12,254 4,112 4,078 4,065
2011............................................................................. 12,313 4,103 4,122 4,088
2012............................................................................. 12,228 3,983 4,113 4,132
2013............................................................................. 12,110 3,992 3,994 4,123
2014............................................................................. 12,013 4,005 4,003 4,005
Projected
2015............................................................................. 12,021 3,988 4,017 4,015
2016............................................................................. 12,020 3,990 4,000 4,029
2017............................................................................. 12,036 4,021 4,002 4,012
2018............................................................................. 12,098 4,050 4,033 4,014
2019............................................................................. 12,188 4,080 4,063 4,045
2020............................................................................. 12,275 4,108 4,092 4,075
2021............................................................................. 12,359 4,135 4,120 4,104
2022............................................................................. 12,439 4,159 4,147 4,133
2023............................................................................. 12,512 4,181 4,172 4,159
2024............................................................................. 12,577 4,199 4,194 4,184
2025............................................................................. 12,631 4,212 4,212 4,206

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved
to totals because of rounding. As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to reflect August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-
the most recent 2014 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific 2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://
population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
Bureau estimate for 2014 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2014.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 129

Table B-3. Actual and projected school-age populations, by selected ages: 2000 through 2025
[In thousands]

Year (July 1) 5-year-olds 6-year-olds 5- to 13-year-olds 14- to 17-year-olds

1 2 3 4 5
Actual
2000............................................................................. 3,968 4,004 37,054 16,144
2001............................................................................. 3,910 3,973 37,093 16,280
2002............................................................................. 3,837 3,913 37,001 16,506
2003............................................................................. 3,824 3,838 36,814 16,694
2004............................................................................. 3,830 3,822 36,458 17,054
2005............................................................................. 3,893 3,828 36,248 17,358
2006............................................................................. 4,051 3,891 36,269 17,549
2007............................................................................. 3,993 4,046 36,296 17,597
2008............................................................................. 4,024 3,988 36,438 17,395
2009............................................................................. 4,070 4,018 36,657 17,232
2010............................................................................. 4,065 4,073 36,867 17,066
2011............................................................................. 4,088 4,075 36,918 16,873
2012............................................................................. 4,132 4,098 37,008 16,723
2013............................................................................. 4,123 4,143 37,084 16,659
2014............................................................................. 4,005 4,134 36,959 16,748
Projected
2015............................................................................. 4,015 4,016 36,890 16,803
2016............................................................................. 4,029 4,026 36,926 16,760
2017............................................................................. 4,012 4,040 36,918 16,731
2018............................................................................. 4,014 4,023 36,871 16,662
2019............................................................................. 4,045 4,025 36,853 16,646
2020............................................................................. 4,075 4,056 36,840 16,743
2021............................................................................. 4,104 4,086 36,813 16,858
2022............................................................................. 4,133 4,115 36,824 16,922
2023............................................................................. 4,159 4,144 36,981 16,866
2024............................................................................. 4,184 4,171 37,152 16,797
2025............................................................................. 4,206 4,196 37,332 16,696

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved
sum to totals because of rounding. As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-
reflect the most recent 2014 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau 2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://
age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
the total Census Bureau estimate for 2014 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2014.

130 Appendix B: Supplementary Tables

Table B-4. Actual and projected college-age populations, by selected ages: 2000 through 2025
[In thousands]

Year (July 1) 18-year-olds 18- to 24-year-olds 25- to 29-year-olds 30- to 34-year-olds 35- to 44-year-olds
1 2 3 4 5 6
Actual
2000............................................................................. 4,082 27,390 19,328 20,560 45,217
2001............................................................................. 4,106 28,081 18,866 20,689 45,101
2002............................................................................. 4,087 28,598 18,752 20,705 44,706
2003............................................................................. 4,206 29,121 18,872 20,545 44,251
2004............................................................................. 4,218 29,474 19,193 20,220 43,881
2005............................................................................. 4,228 29,609 19,629 19,787 43,594
2006............................................................................. 4,303 29,758 20,200 19,343 43,325
2007............................................................................. 4,397 29,973 20,640 19,231 42,879
2008............................................................................. 4,590 30,355 21,003 19,365 42,275
2009............................................................................. 4,537 30,687 21,184 19,708 41,573
2010............................................................................. 4,493 30,918 21,249 20,132 41,066
2011............................................................................. 4,404 31,242 21,397 20,592 40,751
2012............................................................................. 4,361 31,514 21,487 20,983 40,639
2013............................................................................. 4,297 31,637 21,679 21,348 40,597
2014............................................................................. 4,227 31,561 22,055 21,575 40,566
Projected
2015............................................................................. 4,219 31,326 22,531 21,714 40,631
2016............................................................................. 4,228 31,058 23,060 21,919 40,684
2017............................................................................. 4,244 30,854 23,532 22,074 41,038
2018............................................................................. 4,327 30,815 23,818 22,318 41,586
2019............................................................................. 4,277 30,756 23,936 22,744 42,146
2020............................................................................. 4,189 30,664 23,783 23,227 42,740
2021............................................................................. 4,218 30,667 23,526 23,761 43,437
2022............................................................................. 4,261 30,721 23,308 24,237 44,024
2023............................................................................. 4,265 30,768 23,182 24,530 44,668
2024............................................................................. 4,290 30,825 23,103 24,656 45,361
2025............................................................................. 4,336 30,845 23,162 24,512 45,997

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved
sum to totals because of rounding. As the Census Bureau projections were not updated to August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-
reflect the most recent 2014 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau 2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://
age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
the total Census Bureau estimate for 2014 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2014.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 131

Table B-5. Actual and projected fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, change in fall enrollment from previous year,
resident population, and fall enrollment as a ratio of the population: School years 2000–01 through 2025–26
Change in fall enrollment from Resident population Fall enrollment as
School year Fall enrollment (in thousands) previous year (in thousands) (in millions) a ratio of the population
1 2 3 4 5
Actual
2000–01....................................................................... 46,857 319 279.3 0.168
2001–02....................................................................... 47,204 346 282.4 0.167
2002–03....................................................................... 47,672 468 285.2 0.167
2003–04....................................................................... 48,183 511 287.9 0.167
2004–05....................................................................... 48,540 357 290.6 0.167
2005–06....................................................................... 48,795 255 293.2 0.166
2006–07....................................................................... 49,113 318 296.0 0.166
2007–08....................................................................... 49,316 203 298.8 0.165
2008–09....................................................................... 49,293 -23 301.7 0.163
2009–10....................................................................... 49,266 -27 304.5 0.162
2010–11....................................................................... 49,361 95 307.2 0.161
2011–12....................................................................... 49,484 123 309.7 0.160
2012–13....................................................................... 49,522 37 312.0 0.159
2013–14....................................................................... 49,771 249 314.2 0.158
Projected
2014–15....................................................................... 49,942 171 316.4 0.158
2015–16....................................................................... 49,986 44 318.9 0.157
2016–17....................................................................... 50,094 109 321.4 0.156
2017–18....................................................................... 50,229 135 323.8 0.155
2018–19....................................................................... 50,584 355 326.3 0.155
2019–20....................................................................... 50,871 287 328.9 0.155
2020–21....................................................................... 51,183 312 331.4 0.154
2021–22....................................................................... 51,547 365 333.9 0.154
2022–23....................................................................... 51,910 363 336.4 0.154
2023–24....................................................................... 52,260 350 338.9 0.154
2024–25....................................................................... 52,601 341 341.4 0.154
2025–26....................................................................... 52,920 318 343.9 0.154

NOTE: Resident population includes civilian population and armed forces personnel resid- SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved
ing with the United States: it excludes armed forces personnel overseas. Calculations were August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-
made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published 2014/national/asrh/; and Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://
figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. As the Census Bureau projec- www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html. U.S. Department of Education, National
tions were not updated to reflect the most recent 2014 Census Bureau population esti- Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), State Nonfiscal Survey of
mates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted Public Elementary/Secondary Education, 1996–97 through 2013–14; and National Ele-
by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2014 to the total Census mentary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2025. (This table was
Bureau projection for 2014. prepared March 2016.)

132 Appendix B: Supplementary Tables

Table B-6. Actual and projected macroeconomic measures of the economy: School years 2000–01 through 2025–26
Disposable income per capita Education revenue receipts from state sources
School year in constant 2014–15 dollars1 per capita in constant 2014–15 dollars2 Consumer Price Index3
1 2 3 4
Actual
2000–01....................................................................... $33,589 $917 0.720
2001–02....................................................................... 34,550 949 0.745
2002–03....................................................................... 35,313 955 0.758
2003–04....................................................................... 35,684 960 0.775
2004–05....................................................................... 36,752 944 0.792
2005–06....................................................................... 37,296 955 0.816
2006–07....................................................................... 37,971 966 0.847
2007–08....................................................................... 38,786 1,016 0.869
2008–09....................................................................... 39,196 1,040 0.901
2009–10....................................................................... 38,896 994 0.914
2010–11....................................................................... 38,467 913 0.923
2011–12....................................................................... 39,146 915 0.941
2012–13....................................................................... 39,729 898 0.969
2013–144 ..................................................................... 40,172 869 0.985
2014–154 ..................................................................... 40,236 875 1.000
Projected
2015–16....................................................................... 41,140 894 1.006
2016–17....................................................................... 41,950 911 1.021
2017–18....................................................................... 43,027 933 1.045
2018–19....................................................................... 44,160 960 1.070
2019–20....................................................................... 45,070 980 1.097
2020–21....................................................................... 46,086 1,002 1.123
2021–22....................................................................... 46,972 1,023 1.151
2022–23....................................................................... 47,774 1,041 1.177
2023–24....................................................................... 48,594 1,059 1.203
2024–25....................................................................... 49,433 1,077 1.231
2025–26....................................................................... 49,939 1,087 1.251

1Based on the price deflator for personal consumption expenditures, Bureau of Labor Sta- from previously published figures.
tistics, U.S. Department of Labor. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common
2Based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Core of Data (CCD), National Public Education Financial Survey, 1998–99 through 2012–
U.S. Department of Labor. 13; Revenue Receipts From State Sources Projections Model, 1971–72 through 2025–26;
3Consumer Price Index adjusted to a school-year basis (July through June). and IHS Global Inc., U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term
4Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita is a projection. Baseline Projections. (This table was prepared March 2016.)
NOTE: Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 133

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 Appendix C
Data Sources

SOURCES AND COMPARABILITY OF DATA

The information in this report was obtained from many sources, including federal and state agencies, private research
organizations, and professional associations. The data were collected by many methods, including surveys of a universe (such
as all colleges) or of a sample, and compilations of administrative records. Care should be used when comparing data from
different sources. Differences in procedures, such as timing, phrasing of questions, and interviewer training, mean that the
results from the different sources are not strictly comparable. More extensive documentation of one survey’s procedures than
of another’s does not imply more problems with the data, only that more information is available on the survey.

ACCURACY OF DATA
The accuracy of any statistic is determined by the joint effects of “sampling” and “nonsampling” errors. Estimates based on a
sample will differ from the figures that would have been obtained if a complete census had been taken using the same survey
instruments, instructions, and procedures. Besides sampling errors, both of the surveys, universe and sample, are subject to
errors of design, reporting, and processing, and errors due to nonresponse. To the extent possible, these nonsampling errors
are kept to a minimum by methods built into the survey procedures. In general, however, the effects of nonsampling errors
are more difficult to gauge than those produced by sampling variability.

SAMPLING ERRORS
The standard error is the primary measure of the sampling variability of an estimate. Standard errors can be used to produce
confidence intervals. For example, from table A-11, an estimated 93.1 percent of public school teachers reported that they
worked full time in 2011–12. This figure has an estimated standard error of 0.46 percent. Therefore, the estimated 95 percent
confidence interval for this statistic is approximately 92.15 to 93.98 percent (93.1 ± 1.96 [0.46]). That is, if the processes of
selecting a sample, collecting the data, and constructing the confidence interval were repeated, it would be expected that in
95 out of 100 samples from the same population, the confidence interval would contain the true full-time working rate.
Analysis of standard errors can help assess how valid a comparison between two estimates might be. The standard error of a
difference between two independent sample estimates is equal to the square root of the sum of the squared standard errors of
the estimates. The standard error (se) of the difference between independent sample estimates a and b is
sea-b = (sea2 + seb2)1/2
Note that some of the standard errors in the original documents are approximations. That is, to derive estimates of
standard errors that would be applicable to a wide variety of items and could be prepared at a moderate cost, a number of
approximations were required. As a result, most of the standard errors presented provide a general order of magnitude rather
than the exact standard error for any specific item.

NONSAMPLING ERRORS
Both universe and sample surveys are subject to nonsampling errors. Nonsampling errors are of two kinds—random and
nonrandom. Random nonsampling errors may arise when respondents or interviewers interpret questions differently, when
respondents must estimate values, or when coders, keyers, and other processors handle answers differently. Nonrandom
nonsampling errors result from total nonresponse (no usable data obtained for a sampled unit), partial or item nonresponse
(only a portion of a response may be usable), inability or unwillingness on the part of respondents to provide information,
difficulty interpreting questions, mistakes in recording or keying data, errors of collection or processing, and overcoverage
or undercoverage of the target universe. Random nonresponse errors usually, but not always, result in an understatement
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 135
of sampling errors and thus an overstatement of the precision of survey estimates. Because estimating the magnitude of
nonsampling errors would require special experiments or access to independent data, these magnitudes are seldom available.

To compensate for suspected nonrandom errors, adjustments of the sample estimates are often made. For example,
adjustments are frequently made for nonresponse, both total and partial. Imputations are usually made separately within
various groups of sample members that have similar survey characteristics. Imputation for item nonresponse is usually made
by substituting for a missing item the response to that item of a respondent having characteristics similar to those of the
respondent.

Although the magnitude of nonsampling errors in the data used in Projections of Education Statistics is frequently unknown,
idiosyncrasies that have been identified are noted on the appropriate tables.

FEDERAL AGENCY SOURCES

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)
Common Core of Data
The Common Core of Data (CCD) is NCES’s primary database on public elementary and secondary education in the
United States. It is a comprehensive, annual, national statistical database of all public elementary and secondary schools and
school districts containing data designed to be comparable across all states. This database can be used to select samples for
other NCES surveys and provide basic information and descriptive statistics on public elementary and secondary schools and
schooling in general.

The CCD collects statistical information annually from approximately 100,000 public elementary and secondary schools
and approximately 18,000 public school districts (including supervisory unions and regional education service agencies) in
the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Department of Defense (DoD) dependents schools, the Bureau of Indian Education
(BIE), Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Three categories
of information are collected in the CCD survey: general descriptive information on schools and school districts; data on
students and staff; and fiscal data. The general school and district descriptive information includes name, address, phone
number, and type of locale; the data on students and staff include selected demographic characteristics; and the fiscal data
pertain to revenues and current expenditures.

The EDFacts data collection system is the primary collection tool for the CCD. NCES works collaboratively with the
Department of Education’s Performance Information Management Service to develop the CCD collection procedures and
data definitions. Coordinators from state education agencies (SEAs) submit the CCD data at different levels (school, agency,
and state) to the EDFacts collection system. Prior to submitting CCD files to EDFacts, SEAs must collect and compile
information from their respective local education agencies (LEAs) through established administrative records systems within
their state or jurisdiction.

Once SEAs have completed their submissions, the CCD survey staff analyzes and verifies the data for quality assurance. Even
though the CCD is a universe collection and thus not subject to sampling errors, nonsampling errors can occur. The two
potential sources of nonsampling errors are nonresponse and inaccurate reporting. NCES attempts to minimize nonsampling
errors through the use of annual training of SEA coordinators, extensive quality reviews, and survey editing procedures. In
addition, each year, SEAs are given the opportunity to revise their state-level aggregates from the previous survey cycle.

The CCD survey consists of five components: The Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey, the Local
Education Agency (School District) Universe Survey, the State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,
the National Public Education Financial Survey (NPEFS), and the School District Finance Survey (F-33). The following
sections describe the CCD surveys that were used in preparing this report.

State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education

The State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education for the 2013–14 school year provides state-level,
aggregate information about students and staff in public elementary and secondary education. It includes data from the 50
states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and American
Samoa. The DoD dependents schools (overseas and domestic) and the BIE are also included in the survey universe. This
survey covers public school student membership by grade, race/ethnicity, and state or jurisdiction and covers number of staff
in public schools by category and state or jurisdiction. Beginning with the 2006–07 school year, the number of diploma

136 Appendix C: Data Sources

recipients and other high school completers are no longer included in the State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/
Secondary Education file. These data are now collected through the Local Education Agency (School District) Universe
Survey and published in the public-use Common Core of Data State Dropout and Completion Data File.

National Public Education Financial Survey

The purpose of the National Public Education Financial Survey (NPEFS) is to provide district, state, and federal
policymakers, researchers, and other interested users with descriptive information about revenues and expenditures for
public elementary and secondary education. The data collected are useful to (1) chief officers of state education agencies;
(2) policymakers in the executive and legislative branches of federal and state governments; (3) education policy and public
policy researchers; and (4) the public, journalists, and others.

Data for NPEFS are collected from state education agencies (SEAs) in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico,
American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The data file is organized by state or
jurisdiction and contains revenue data by funding source; expenditure data by function (the activity being supported by the
expenditure) and object (the category of expenditure); average daily attendance data; and total student membership data from
the CCD State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education.

Further information on the nonfiscal CCD data may be obtained from

Patrick Keaton
Administrative Data Division
Elementary and Secondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
patrick.keaton@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ccd

Further information on the fiscal CCD data may be obtained from

Stephen Cornman
Administrative Data Division
Elementary and Secondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
stephen.cornman@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ccd

Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) surveys approximately 7,500 postsecondary institutions, including
universities and colleges, as well as institutions offering technical and vocational education beyond the high school level. IPEDS,
an annual universe collection that began in 1986, replaced the Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS).

IPEDS consists of interrelated survey components that provide information on postsecondary institutions, student enrollment,
programs offered, degrees and certificates conferred, and both the human and financial resources involved in the provision of
institutionally based postsecondary education. Prior to 2000, the IPEDS survey had the following subject-matter components:
Graduation Rates; Fall Enrollment; Institutional Characteristics; Completions; Salaries, Tenure, and Fringe Benefits of Full-Time
Faculty; Fall Staff; Finance; and Academic Libraries (in 2000, the Academic Libraries component became a survey separate from
IPEDS). Since 2000, IPEDS survey components occurring in a particular collection year have been organized into three seasonal
collection periods: fall, winter, and spring. The Institutional Characteristics and Completions components first took place during
the fall 2000 collection; the Employees by Assigned Position (EAP), Salaries, and Fall Staff components first took place during
the winter 2001–02 collection; and the Enrollment, Student Financial Aid, Finance, and Graduation Rates components first took
place during the spring 2001 collection. In the winter 2005–06 data collection, the EAP, Fall Staff, and Salaries components were
merged into the Human Resources component. During the 2007–08 collection year, the Enrollment component was broken into
two separate components: 12-Month Enrollment (taking place in the fall collection) and Fall Enrollment (taking place in the

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 137

spring collection). In the 2011–12 IPEDS data collection year, the Student Financial Aid component was moved to the winter
data collection to aid in the timing of the net price of attendance calculations displayed on the College Navigator (http://nces.
ed.gov/collegenavigator). In the 2012–13 IPEDS data collection year, the Human Resources component was moved from the
winter data collection to the spring data collection, and in the 2013–14 data collection year, the Graduation Rates and Graduation
Rates 200% components were moved from the spring data collection to the winter data collection.

Beginning in 2008–09, the first-professional degree category was combined with the doctor’s degree category. However, some
degrees formerly identified as first-professional that take more than two full-time-equivalent academic years to complete, such as
those in Theology (M.Div, M.H.L./Rav), are included in the Master’s degree category. Doctor’s degrees were broken out into three
distinct categories: research/scholarship, professional practice, and other doctor’s degrees.

IPEDS race/ethnicity data collection also changed in 2008–09. The “Asian” race category is now separate from a “Native Hawaiian
or Other Pacific Islander” category, and a new category of “Two or more races” is added.

The degree-granting institutions portion of IPEDS is a census of colleges that award associate’s or higher degrees and are eligible to
participate in Title IV financial aid programs. Prior to 1993, data from technical and vocational institutions were collected through
a sample survey. Beginning in 1993, all data are gathered in a census of all postsecondary institutions. Beginning in 1997, the
survey was restricted to institutions participating in Title IV programs.

The classification of institutions offering college and university education changed as of 1996. Prior to 1996, institutions that
had courses leading to an associate’s or higher degree or that had courses accepted for credit toward those degrees were considered
higher education institutions. Higher education institutions were accredited by an agency or association that was recognized by the
U.S. Department of Education or were recognized directly by the Secretary of Education. The newer standard includes institutions
that award associate’s or higher degrees and that are eligible to participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Tables that
contain any data according to this standard are titled “degree-granting” institutions. Time-series tables may contain data from both
series, and they are noted accordingly. The impact of this change on data collected in 1996 was not large. Also, degrees awarded
at the bachelor’s level or higher were not heavily affected. The largest impact was on private 2-year college enrollment. In contrast,
most of the data on public 4-year colleges were affected to a minimal extent. The impact on enrollment in public 2-year colleges
was noticeable in certain states, such as Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Washington, but was relatively small at the
national level. Overall, total enrollment for all institutions was about one-half of 1 percent higher in 1996 for degree-granting
institutions than for higher education institutions.

Prior to the establishment of IPEDS in 1986, HEGIS acquired and maintained statistical data on the characteristics and operations
of institutions of higher education. Implemented in 1966, HEGIS was an annual universe survey of institutions accredited at
the college level by an agency recognized by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Education. These institutions were listed in
NCES’s Education Directory, Colleges and Universities.

HEGIS surveys collected information on institutional characteristics, faculty salaries, finances, enrollment, and degrees. Since these
surveys, like IPEDS, were distributed to all higher education institutions, the data presented are not subject to sampling error.
However, they are subject to nonsampling error, the sources of which varied with the survey instrument.

The NCES Taskforce for IPEDS Redesign recognized that there were issues related to the consistency of data definitions as
well as the accuracy, reliability, and validity of other quality measures within and across surveys. The IPEDS redesign in 2000
provided institution-specific web-based data forms. While the new system shortened data processing time and provided better data
consistency, it did not address the accuracy of the data provided by institutions.

Beginning in 2003–04 with the Prior Year Data Revision System, prior-year data have been available to institutions entering
current data. This allows institutions to make changes to their prior-year entries either by adjusting the data or by providing
missing data. These revisions allow the evaluation of the data’s accuracy by looking at the changes made.

NCES conducted a study (NCES 2005-175) of the 2002–03 data that were revised in 2003–04 to determine the accuracy of the
imputations, track the institutions that submitted revised data, and analyze the revised data they submitted. When institutions
made changes to their data, it was assumed that the revised data were the “true” data. The data were analyzed for the number and
type of institutions making changes, the type of changes, the magnitude of the changes, and the impact on published data.

Because NCES imputes for missing data, imputation procedures were also addressed by the Redesign Taskforce. For the 2003–04
assessment, differences between revised values and values that were imputed in the original files were compared (i.e., revised value

138 Appendix C: Data Sources

minus imputed value). These differences were then used to provide an assessment of the effectiveness of imputation procedures.
The size of the differences also provides an indication of the accuracy of imputation procedures. To assess the overall impact of
changes on aggregate IPEDS estimates, published tables for each component were reconstructed using the revised 2002–03 data.
These reconstructed tables were then compared to the published tables to determine the magnitude of aggregate bias and the
direction of this bias.

Since fall 2000 and spring 2001, IPEDS data collections have been web-based. Data have been provided by “keyholders,”
institutional representatives appointed by campus chief executives, who are responsible for ensuring that survey data submitted
by the institution are correct and complete. Because Title IV institutions are the primary focus of IPEDS and because these
institutions are required to respond to IPEDS, response rates for Title IV institutions have been high (data on specific components
are cited below). More details on the accuracy and reliability of IPEDS data can be found in the Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System Data Quality Study (NCES 2005-175).

Further information on IPEDS may be obtained from

Richard Reeves
Administrative Data Division
Postsecondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
richard.reeves@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Fall (12-Month Enrollment)

The 12-month period during which data are collected is July 1 through June 30. Data are collected by race/ethnicity, gender,
and level of study (undergraduate or postbaccalaureate) and include unduplicated headcounts and instructional activity
(contact or credit hours). These data are also used to calculate a full-time-equivalent (FTE) enrollment based on instructional
activity. FTE enrollment is useful for gauging the size of the educational enterprise at the institution. Prior to the 2007–08
IPEDS data collection, the data collected in the 12-Month Enrollment component were part of the Fall Enrollment
component, which is conducted during the spring data collection period. However, to improve the timeliness of the data,
a separate 12-Month Enrollment survey component was developed in 2007. These data are now collected in the fall for
the previous academic year. Of the 7,304 Title IV institutions that were expected to respond to the 12-Month Enrollment
component of the fall 2014 data collection, 7,302 responded, for an approximate response rate of 100.0 percent.

Further information on the IPEDS 12-Month Enrollment component may be obtained from

Bao Le
Administrative Data Division
Postsecondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
bao.le@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Fall (Completions)
This survey was part of the HEGIS series throughout its existence. However, the degree classification taxonomy was revised
in 1970–71, 1982–83, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10. Collection of degree data has been maintained through IPEDS.

Degrees-conferred trend tables arranged by the 2009–10 classification are included in the Projections of Education Statistics
to provide consistent data from 1970–71 through the most recent year. Data in this edition on associate’s degrees, by field
of study, cannot be made comparable with figures from years prior to 1982–83. The nonresponse rate does not appear to
be a significant source of nonsampling error for this survey. The response rate over the years has been high; for the fall 2014

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 139

Completions component, it was about 100.0 percent. Because of the high response rate, there was no need to conduct a
nonresponse bias analysis. Imputation methods for the fall 2014 Completions component are discussed in the 2014–15
Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Methodology Report (NCES 2015-098).

The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Data Quality Study (NCES 2005-175) indicated that most Title IV
institutions supplying revised data on completions in 2003–04 were able to supply missing data for the prior year. The
small differences between imputed data for the prior year and the revised actual data supplied by the institution indicated
that the imputed values produced by NCES were acceptable.

Further information on the IPEDS Completions component may be obtained from

Andrew Mary
Administrative Data Division
Postsecondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
andrew.mary@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

Spring (Fall Enrollment)

This survey has been part of the HEGIS and IPEDS series since 1966. Response rates for this survey have been relatively
high, generally exceeding 85 percent. Beginning in 2000, with web-based data collection, higher response rates were attained.
In the spring 2015 data collection, the Fall Enrollment component covered fall 2014. Of the 7,292 institutions that were
expected to respond, 7,284 responded, for a response rate that rounded to 100 percent. Data collection procedures for the
Fall Enrollment component of the spring 2015 data collection are presented in Enrollment and Employees in Postsecondary
Institutions, Fall 2014; and Financial Statistics and Academic Libraries, Fiscal Year 2014: First Look (Provisional Data) (NCES
2016-005).

Beginning with the fall 1986 survey and the introduction of IPEDS (see above), the survey was redesigned. The survey
allows (in alternating years) for the collection of age and residence data. Beginning in 2000, the survey collected instructional
activity and unduplicated headcount data, which are needed to compute a standardized, full-time-equivalent (FTE)
enrollment statistic for the entire academic year. As of 2007–08, the timeliness of the instructional activity data has been
improved by collecting these data in the fall as part of the 12-Month Enrollment component instead of in the spring as part
of the Fall Enrollment component.

The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Data Quality Study (NCES 2005-175) showed that public institutions
made the majority of changes to enrollment data during the 2004 revision period. The majority of changes were made to
unduplicated headcount data, with the net differences between the original data and the revised data at about 1 percent. Part-
time students in general and enrollment in private not-for-profit institutions were often underestimated. The fewest changes
by institutions were to Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) code data. (The CIP is a taxonomic coding scheme that
contains titles and descriptions of primarily postsecondary instructional programs.)

Further information on the IPEDS Fall Enrollment component may be obtained from

Bao Le
Administrative Data Division
Postsecondary Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
bao.le@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds

140 Appendix C: Data Sources

Private School Universe Survey
The purposes of the Private School Universe Survey (PSS) data collection activities are (1) to build an accurate and complete
list of private schools to serve as a sampling frame for NCES sample surveys of private schools and (2) to report data on
the total number of private schools, teachers, and students in the survey universe. Begun in 1989 under the U.S. Census
Bureau, the PSS has been conducted every 2 years, and data for the 1989–90, 1991–92, 1993–94, 1995–96, 1997–98,
1999–2000, 2001–02, 2003–04, 2005–06, 2007–08, 2009–10, 2011–12, and 2013–14 school years have been released. A
First Look report on the 2013–14 PSS data, Characteristics of Private Schools in the United States: Results From the 2013–14
Private School Universe Survey (NCES 2016-243) was published in November 2016.

The PSS produces data similar to that of the Common Core of Data for public schools, and can be used for public-private
comparisons. The data are useful for a variety of policy- and research-relevant issues, such as the growth of religiously
affiliated schools, the number of private high school graduates, the length of the school year for various private schools, and
the number of private school students and teachers.

The target population for this universe survey is all private schools in the United States that meet the PSS criteria of a private
school (i.e., the private school is an institution that provides instruction for any of grades K through 12, has one or more
teachers to give instruction, is not administered by a public agency, and is not operated in a private home).

The survey universe is composed of schools identified from a variety of sources. The main source is a list frame initially
developed for the 1989–90 PSS. The list is updated regularly by matching it with lists provided by nationwide private school
associations, state departments of education, and other national guides and sources that list private schools. The other source
is an area frame search in approximately 124 geographic areas, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Of the 40,302 schools included in the 2009–10 sample, 10,229 were found ineligible for the survey. Those not responding
numbered 1,856, and those responding numbered 28,217. The unweighted response rate for the 2009–10 PSS survey was
93.8 percent.

Of the 39,325 schools included in the 2011–12 sample, 10,030 cases were considered as out-of-scope (not eligible for the
PSS). A total of 26,983 private schools completed a PSS interview (15.8 percent completed online), while 2,312 schools
refused to participate, resulting in an unweighted response rate of 92.1 percent.

Of the 40,298 schools included in the 2013–14 PSS, 10,659 cases were considered as out-of-scope (not eligible for the PSS).
A total of 24,566 private schools completed a PSS interview (34.1 percent completed online), while 5,073 schools refused to
participate resulting in an unweighted response rate of 82.9 percent.

Further information on the PSS may be obtained from

Steve Broughman
Sample Surveys Division
Cross-Sectional Surveys Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
stephen.broughman@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pss

Schools and Staffing Survey

The Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) is a set of related questionnaires that collect descriptive data on the context of public
and private elementary and secondary education. Data reported by districts, schools, principals, and teachers provide a variety
of statistics on the condition of education in the United States that may be used by policymakers and the general public. The
SASS system covers a wide range of topics, including teacher demand, teacher and principal characteristics, teachers’ and
principals’ perceptions of school climate and problems in their schools, teacher and principal compensation, district hiring
and retention practices, general conditions in schools, and basic characteristics of the student population.

SASS data are collected through a mail questionnaire with telephone and in-person field follow-up. SASS has been
conducted by the Census Bureau for NCES since the first administration of the survey, which was conducted during the
1987–88 school year. Subsequent SASS administrations were conducted in 1990–91, 1993–94, 1999–2000, 2003–04,
2007–08, and 2011–12.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 141

SASS is designed to produce national, regional, and state estimates for public elementary and secondary schools, school
districts, principals, teachers, and school library media centers and national and regional estimates for public charter schools,
as well as principals, teachers, and school library media centers within these schools. For private schools, the sample supports
national, regional, and affiliation estimates for schools, principals, and teachers.

From its inception, SASS has had four core components: school questionnaires, teacher questionnaires, principal
questionnaires, and school district (prior to 1999–2000, “teacher demand and shortage”) questionnaires. A fifth component,
school library media center questionnaires, was introduced in the 1993–94 administration and has been included in every
subsequent administration of SASS. School library data were also collected in the 1990–91 administration of the survey
through the school and principal questionnaires.

School questionnaires used in SASS include the Public and Private School Questionnaires; teacher questionnaires include the
Public and Private School Teacher Questionnaires; principal questionnaires include the Public and Private School Principal
(or School Administrator) Questionnaires; and school district questionnaires include the School District (or Teacher Demand
and Shortage) Questionnaires.

Although the four core questionnaires and the school library media questionnaires have remained relatively stable over the
various administrations of SASS, the survey has changed to accommodate emerging issues in elementary and secondary
education. Some questionnaire items have been added, some have been deleted, and some have been reworded.

During the 1990–91 SASS cycle, NCES worked with the Office of Indian Education to add an Indian School Questionnaire
to SASS, and it remained a part of SASS through 2007–08. The Indian School Questionnaire explores the same school-level
issues that the Public and Private School Questionnaires explore, allowing comparisons among the three types of schools.
The 1990–91, 1993–94, 1999–2000, 2003–04, and 2007–08 administrations of SASS obtained data on Bureau of Indian
Education (BIE) schools (schools funded or operated by the BIE), but the 2011–12 administration did not obtain BIE data.
SASS estimates for all survey years presented in this report exclude BIE schools, and as a result, estimates in this report may
differ from those in previously published reports.

The SASS teacher surveys collect information on the characteristics of teachers, such as their age, race/ethnicity, years of
teaching experience, average number of hours per week spent on teaching activities, base salary, average class size, and highest
degree earned. These teacher-reported data may be combined with related information on their school’s characteristics, such
as school type (e.g., public traditional, public charter, Catholic, private other religious, and private nonsectarian), community
type, and school enrollment size. The teacher questionnaires also ask for information on teacher opinions regarding the
school and teaching environment. In 1993–94, about 53,000 public school teachers and 10,400 private school teachers
were sampled. In 1999–2000, about 56,300 public school teachers, 4,400 public charter school teachers, and 10,800 private
school teachers were sampled. In 2003–04, about 52,500 public school teachers and 10,000 private school teachers were
sampled. In 2007–08, about 48,400 public school teachers and 8,200 private school teachers were sampled. In 2011–12,
about 51,100 public school teachers and 7,100 private school teachers were sampled. Weighted overall response rates in
2011–12 were 61.8 percent for public school teachers and 50.1 percent for private school teachers.

The SASS 2011–12 sample of schools was confined to the 50 states and the District of Columbia and excludes the other
jurisdictions, the Department of Defense overseas schools, the BIE schools, and schools that do not offer teacher-provided
classroom instruction in grades 1–12 or the ungraded equivalent. The SASS 2011–12 sample included 10,250 traditional
public schools, 750 public charter schools, and 3,000 private schools.

The public school sample for the 2011–12 SASS was based on an adjusted public school universe file from the 2009–10
Common Core of Data, a database of all the nation’s public school districts and public schools. The private school sample for
the 2011–12 SASS was selected from the 2009–10 Private School Universe Survey (PSS), as updated for the 2011–12 PSS.
This update collected membership lists from private school associations and religious denominations, as well as private school
lists from state education departments. The 2011–12 SASS private school frame was further augmented by the inclusion of
additional schools that were identified through the 2009–10 PSS area frame data collection.

The NCES data product 2011–12 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) Restricted-Use Data Files (NCES 2014-356) is available.
(Information on how to obtain a restricted-use data license is located at http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/licenses.asp.) This
DVD contains eight files (Public School District, Public School Principal, Public School, Public School Teacher, Public
School Library Media Center, Private School Principal, Private School, and Private School Teacher) in multiple formats. It
also contains a six-volume User’s Manual, which includes a codebook for each file.

142 Appendix C: Data Sources

Further information on SASS may be obtained from

Amy Ho
Sample Surveys Division
Cross-Sectional Surveys Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
amy.ho@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sass

Teacher Follow-Up Survey

The Teacher Follow-up Survey (TFS) is a follow-up survey of selected elementary and secondary school teachers who
participate in the NCES Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS). Its purpose is to determine how many teachers remain at the
same school, move to another school, or leave the profession in the year following a SASS administration. It is administered
to elementary and secondary teachers in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The TFS uses two questionnaires, one for
teachers who left teaching since the previous SASS administration and another for those who are still teaching either in the
same school as last year or in a different school. The objective of the TFS is to focus on the characteristics of each group in
order to answer questions about teacher mobility and attrition.

The 2008–09 TFS is different from any previous TFS administration in that it also serves as the second wave of a longitudinal
study of first-year teachers. Because of this, the 2008–09 TFS consists of four questionnaires. Two are for respondents who
were first-year public school teachers in the 2007–08 SASS and two are for the remainder of the sample.

The 2012–13 TFS sample was made up of teachers who had taken the 2011–12 SASS survey. The 2012–13 TFS sample
contained about 5,800 public school teachers and 1,200 private school teachers. The weighted overall response rate using the
initial basic weight for private school teachers was notably low (39.7 percent), resulting in a decision to exclude private school
teachers from the 2012–13 TFS data files. The weighted overall response rate for public school teachers was 49.9 percent
(50.3 percent for current and 45.6 percent for former teachers). Further information about the 2012–13 TFS, including the
analysis of unit nonresponse bias, is available in the First Look report Teacher Attrition and Mobility: Results From the 2012–13
Teacher Follow-up Survey (NCES 2014-077).

Further information on the TFS may be obtained from

Isaiah O’Rear
Sample Surveys Division
Cross-Sectional Surveys Branch
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
isaiah.orear@ed.gov
http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sass

Bureau of Economic Analysis

National Income and Product Accounts
The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, are a set of economic
accounts that provide information on the value and composition of output produced in the United States during a given period.
NIPAs present measures of economic activity in the United States, including production, income distribution, and personal
savings. NIPAs also include data on employee compensation and wages. These estimations were first calculated in the early
1930s to help the government design economic policies to combat the Great Depression. Most of the NIPA series are published
quarterly, with annual reviews of estimates from the three most recent years conducted in the summer.

Revisions to the NIPAs have been made over the years to create a more comprehensive economic picture of the United States.
For example, in 1976, consumption of fixed capital (CFC) estimates shifted to a current-cost basis. In 1991, NIPAs began to

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 143

use gross domestic product (GDP) instead of gross national product (GNP) as the primary measure of U.S. production. (At that
time, virtually all other countries were already using GDP as their primary measure of production.) In the 2003 comprehensive
revision, a more complete and accurate measure of insurance services was adopted. The incorporation of a new classification
system for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was among the changes contained in the 2009 comprehensive revision.
The comprehensive revision of 2013 included the treatment of research and development expenditures by business, government,
and nonprofit institutions serving households as fixed investment. As was the case in previous years, the most recent revisions,
made in 2015, were the result of the incorporation of newly available and revised source data and the adoption of improved
estimating methods.

NIPAs are slowly being integrated with other federal account systems, such as the federal account system of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.

Further information on NIPAs may be obtained from

U.S. Department of Commerce
Bureau of Economic Analysis
www.bea.gov

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Indexes
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban
households. Indexes are available for two population groups: a CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and a CPI for Urban
Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Unless otherwise specified, data are adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U. These
values are generally adjusted to a school-year basis by averaging the July through June figures. Price indexes are available for the
United States, the four Census regions, size of city, cross-classifications of regions and size classes, and 26 local areas. The major
uses of the CPI include as an economic indicator, as a deflator of other economic series, and as a means of adjusting income.

Also available is the Consumer Price Index research series using current methods (CPI-U-RS), which presents an estimate of the
CPI-U from 1978 to the present that incorporates most of the improvements that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has made over
that time span into the entire series. The historical price index series of the CPI-U does not reflect these changes, though these
changes do make the present and future CPI more accurate. The limitations of the CPI-U-RS include considerable uncertainty
surrounding the magnitude of the adjustments and the several improvements in the CPI that have not been incorporated into
the CPI-U-RS for various reasons. Nonetheless, the CPI-U-RS can serve as a valuable proxy for researchers needing a historical
estimate of inflation using current methods. This series has not been used in this report.
Further information on consumer price indexes may be obtained from Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Department of Labor

2 Massachusetts Avenue NE
Washington, DC 20212
http://www.bls.gov/cpi

Employment and Unemployment Surveys

Statistics on the employment and unemployment status of the population and related data are compiled by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) (see below) and other surveys. The CPS, a
monthly household survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides a comprehensive
body of information on the employment and unemployment experience of the nation’s population, classified by age, sex, race,
and various other characteristics.

Further information on unemployment surveys may be obtained from

Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue NE
Washington, DC 20212
cpsinfo@bls.gov
http://www.bls.gov/bls/employment.htm

144 Appendix C: Data Sources

Census Bureau
Current Population Survey
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of about 60,000 households conducted by the U.S. Census
Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPS is the primary source of information of labor force statistics for the
U.S. noninstitutionalized population (e.g., it excludes military personnel and their families living on bases and inmates of
correctional institutions). In addition, supplemental questionnaires are used to provide further information about the U.S.
population. Specifically, in October, detailed questions regarding school enrollment and school characteristics are asked. In
March, detailed questions regarding income are asked.
The current sample design, introduced in July 2001, includes about 72,000 households. Each month about 58,900 of the
72,000 households are eligible for interview, and of those, 7 to 10 percent are not interviewed because of temporary absence
or unavailability. Information is obtained each month from those in the household who are 15 years of age and older,
and demographic data are collected for children 0–14 years of age. In addition, supplemental questions regarding school
enrollment are asked about eligible household members ages 3 and older in the October survey. Prior to July 2001, data were
collected in the CPS from about 50,000 dwelling units. The samples are initially selected based on the decennial census files
and are periodically updated to reflect new housing construction.
A major redesign of the CPS was implemented in January 1994 to improve the quality of the data collected. Survey
questions were revised, new questions were added, and computer-assisted interviewing methods were used for the survey data
collection. Further information about the redesign is available in Current Population Survey, October 1995: (School Enrollment
Supplement) Technical Documentation at http://www.census.gov/prod/techdoc/cps/cpsoct95.pdf.
Caution should be used when comparing data from 1994 through 2001 with data from 1993 and earlier. Data from 1994
through 2001 reflect 1990 census-based population controls, while data from 1993 and earlier reflect 1980 or earlier census-
based population controls. Changes in population controls generally have relatively little impact on summary measures such
as means, medians, and percentage distributions. They can have a significant impact on population counts. For example,
use of the 1990 census-based population controls resulted in about a 1 percent increase in the civilian noninstitutional
population and in the number of families and households. Thus, estimates of levels for data collected in 1994 and later years
will differ from those for earlier years by more than what could be attributed to actual changes in the population. These
differences could be disproportionately greater for certain subpopulation groups than for the total population.
Beginning in 2003, race/ethnicity questions expanded to include information on people of two or more races. Native
Hawaiian/Pacific Islander data are collected separately from Asian data. The questions have also been worded to make it clear
that self-reported data on race/ethnicity should reflect the race/ethnicity with which the responder identifies, rather than what
may be written in official documentation.
The estimation procedure employed for monthly CPS data involves inflating weighted sample results to independent
estimates of characteristics of the civilian noninstitutional population in the United States by age, sex, and race. These
independent estimates are based on statistics from decennial censuses; statistics on births, deaths, immigration, and
emigration; and statistics on the population in the armed services. Generalized standard error tables are provided in the
Current Population Reports; methods for deriving standard errors can be found within the CPS technical documentation
at http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/technical-documentation/complete.html. The CPS data are subject to both
nonsampling and sampling errors.
Prior to 2009, standard errors were estimated using the generalized variance function. The generalized variance function is a
simple model that expresses the variance as a function of the expected value of a survey estimate. Beginning with March 2009
CPS data, standard errors were estimated using replicate weight methodology. Those interested in using CPS household-level
supplement replicate weights to calculate variances may refer to Estimating Current Population Survey (CPS) Household-Level
Supplement Variances Using Replicate Weights at http://thedataweb.rm.census.gov/pub/cps/supps/HH-level_Use_of_the_
Public_Use_Replicate_Weight_File.doc.

Further information on CPS may be obtained from

Education and Social Stratification Branch

Population Division
Census Bureau
U.S. Department of Commerce
4600 Silver Hill Road
Washington, DC 20233
http://www.census.gov/cps
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 145
Dropouts
Each October, the Current Population Survey (CPS) includes supplemental questions on the enrollment status of the
population ages 3 years and over as part of the monthly basic survey on labor force participation. In addition to gathering the
information on school enrollment, with the limitations on accuracy as noted below under “School Enrollment,” the survey
data permit calculations of dropout rates. Both status and event dropout rates are tabulated from the October CPS. Event
rates describe the proportion of students who leave school each year without completing a high school program. Status rates
provide cumulative data on dropouts among all young adults within a specified age range. Status rates are higher than event
rates because they include all dropouts ages 16 through 24, regardless of when they last attended school.

In addition to other survey limitations, dropout rates may be affected by survey coverage and exclusion of the
institutionalized population. The incarcerated population has grown more rapidly and has a higher dropout rate than the
general population. Dropout rates for the total population might be higher than those for the noninstitutionalized population
if the prison and jail populations were included in the dropout rate calculations. On the other hand, if military personnel,
who tend to be high school graduates, were included, it might offset some or all of the impact from the theoretical inclusion
of the jail and prison populations.

Another area of concern with tabulations involving young people in household surveys is the relatively low coverage ratio
compared to older age groups. CPS undercoverage results from missed housing units and missed people within sample
households. Overall CPS undercoverage for October 2014 is estimated to be about 12 percent. CPS coverage varies with
age, sex, and race. Generally, coverage is larger for females than for males and larger for non-Blacks than for Blacks. This
differential coverage is a general problem for most household-based surveys. Further information on CPS methodology may
be found in the technical documentation at http://www.census.gov/cps.

Further information on the calculation of dropouts and dropout rates may be obtained from Trends in High School Dropout
and Completion Rates in the United States: 2013 (NCES 2016-117) at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2016/2016117rev.pdf or by
contacting

Joel McFarland
Annual Reports and Information Staff
National Center for Education Statistics
Potomac Center Plaza
550 12th Street SW
Washington, DC 20202
joel.mcfarland@ed.gov

School Enrollment
Each October, the Current Population Survey (CPS) includes supplemental questions on the enrollment status of the
population ages 3 years and over. Prior to 2001, the October supplement consisted of approximately 47,000 interviewed
households. Beginning with the October 2001 supplement, the sample was expanded by 9,000 to a total of approximately
56,000 interviewed households. The main sources of nonsampling variability in the responses to the supplement are those
inherent in the survey instrument. The question of current enrollment may not be answered accurately for various reasons.
Some respondents may not know current grade information for every student in the household, a problem especially
prevalent for households with members in college or in nursery school. Confusion over college credits or hours taken
by a student may make it difficult to determine the year in which the student is enrolled. Problems may occur with the
definition of nursery school (a group or class organized to provide educational experiences for children) where respondents’
interpretations of “educational experiences” vary.

For the October 2014 basic CPS, the household-level nonresponse rate was 10.56 percent. The person-level nonresponse rate
for the school enrollment supplement was an additional 7.8 percent. Since the basic CPS nonresponse rate is a household-
level rate and the school enrollment supplement nonresponse rate is a person-level rate, these rates cannot be combined to
derive an overall nonresponse rate. Nonresponding households may have fewer persons than interviewed ones, so combining
these rates may lead to an overestimate of the true overall nonresponse rate for persons for the school enrollment supplement.

Further information on CPS methodology may be obtained from http://www.census.gov/cps.

146 Appendix C: Data Sources

Further information on the CPS School Enrollment Supplement may be obtained from

Education and Social Stratification Branch

Census Bureau
U.S. Department of Commerce
4600 Silver Hill Road
Washington, DC 20233
https://www.census.gov/topics/education/school-enrollment.html

Decennial Census, Population Estimates, and Population Projections

The Decennial Census is a universe survey mandated by the U.S. Constitution. It is a questionnaire sent to every household
in the country, and it is composed of seven questions about the household and its members (name, sex, age, relationship,
Hispanic origin, race, and whether the housing unit is owned or rented). The Census Bureau also produces annual estimates
of the resident population by demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) for the nation, states, and
counties, as well as national and state projections for the resident population. The reference date for population estimates is
July 1 of the given year. With each new issue of July 1 estimates, the Census Bureau revises estimates for each year back to the
last census. Previously published estimates are superseded and archived.
Further information on the Decennial Census may be obtained from http://www.census.gov.

National Population Projections

The 2014 National Population Projections, the first based on the 2010 Census, provide projections of resident population
and projections of the United States resident population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin from 2014 through 2060.
The following is a general description of the methods used to produce the 2014 National Population Projections.
The projections were produced using a cohort‐component method beginning with an estimated base population for July
1, 2013. First, components of population change (mortality, fertility, and net international migration) were projected.
Next, for each passing year, the population is advanced one year of age and the new age categories are updated using the
projected survival rates and levels of net international migration for that year. A new birth cohort is then added to form the
population under one year of age by applying projected age‐specific fertility rates to the average female population aged 10
to 54 years and updating the new cohort for the effects of mortality and net international migration.
The assumptions for the components of change were based on time series analysis. Initially, demographic models were used
to summarize historical trends. Further information on the methodologies used to produce the 2014 National Population
Projections may be obtained from http://www.census.gov/population/projections/methodology/.

State Population Projections

These state population projections were prepared using a cohort-component method by which each component of population
change—births, deaths, state-to-state migration flows, international in-migration, and international out-migration—was
projected separately for each birth cohort by sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The basic framework was the same as in past
Census Bureau projections.
Detailed components necessary to create the projections were obtained from vital statistics, administrative records, census
data, and national projections. The cohort-component method is based on the traditional demographic accounting system:

P1 = P0 + B ― D + DIM ― DOM + IIM ― IOM

where:
P1 = population at the end of the period
P0 = population at the beginning of the period
B = births during the period
D = deaths during the period
DIM = domestic in-migration during the period
DOM = domestic out-migration during the period
IIM = international in-migration during the period
IOM = international out-migration during the period

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 147

To generate population projections with this model, the Census Bureau created separate datasets for each of these
components. In general, the assumptions concerning the future levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration are
consistent with the assumptions developed for the national population projections of the Census Bureau.

Once the data for each component were developed the cohort-component method was applied to produce the projections.
For each projection year, the base population for each state was disaggregated into eight race and Hispanic categories (non-
Hispanic White; non-Hispanic Black; non-Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific
Islander; Hispanic White; Hispanic Black; Hispanic American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut; and Hispanic Asian and Pacific
Islander), by sex, and single year of age (ages 0 to 85+). The next step was to survive each age-sex-race-ethnic group forward
1 year using the pertinent survival rate. The internal redistribution of the population was accomplished by applying the
appropriate state-to-state migration rates to the survived population in each state. The projected out-migrants were subtracted
from the state of origin and added to the state of destination (as in-migrants). Next, the appropriate number of immigrants
from abroad was added to each group. The population under age 1 was created by applying the appropriate age-race-ethnic
specific birth rates to females of childbearing age (ages 15 to 49). The number of births by sex and race/ethnicity were
survived forward and exposed to the appropriate migration rate to yield the population under age 1. The final results of the
projection process were proportionally adjusted to be consistent with the national population projections by single years of
age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The entire process was then repeated for each year of the projection.

More information on Census Bureau projections may be obtained from

Population Division
Census Bureau
U.S. Department of Commerce
Washington, DC 20233
http://www.census.gov

OTHER SOURCES
IHS Global Inc.
IHS Global Inc. provides an information system that includes databases of economic and financial information; simulation
and planning models; regular publications and special studies; data retrieval and management systems; and access to experts
on economic, financial, industrial, and market activities. One service is the IHS Global Inc. Model of the U.S. Economy,
which contains annual projections of U.S. economic and financial conditions, including forecasts for the federal government,
incomes, population, prices and wages, and state and local governments, over a long-term (10- to 25-year) forecast period.

Additional information is available from

IHS Global Inc.

15 Inverness Way East
Englewood, CO 80112
http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com

148 Appendix C: Data Sources

 Appendix D
References

Broughman, S.P., and Swaim, N.L. (2016). Characteristics of Private Schools in the United States: Results From the 2013–14
Private School Universe Survey (NCES 2016-243). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for
Education Statistics.
Gamkhar, S., and Oates, W. (1996). Asymmetries in the Response to Increases and Decreases in Intergovernmental Grants:
Some Empirical Findings. National Tax Journal, 49(4): 501–512.
Ginder, S.A., Kelly-Reid, J.E., and Mann, F.B. (2015a). 2014–15 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)
Methodology Report (NCES 2015-098). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Ginder, S.A., Kelly-Reid, J.E., and Mann, F.B. (2015b). Enrollment and Employees in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2014; and
Financial Statistics and Academic Libraries, Fiscal Year 2014: First Look (Provisional Data) (NCES 2016-005). U.S. Department
of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Goldring, R., Taie, S., and Riddles, M. (2014). Teacher Attrition and Mobility: Results From the 2012–13 Teacher Follow-up
Survey (NCES 2014-077). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. 4th Edition. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
Hussar, W.J. (1999). Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008–09 (NCES 99-026). U.S. Department
of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Inman, R.P. (1979). The Fiscal Performance of Local Governments: An Interpretive Review. In P. Mieszkowski and M.
Straszheim (Eds.), Current Issues in Urban Economics, (pp. 270–321). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.
Intriligator, M.D. (1978). Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
IHS Global Inc, “IHS U.S. Regional Economic Service, Population Projections, December 2015.”
IHS Global Inc, “U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, 4th Quarter 2015 Short-Term Baseline Projections.”
Jackson, K.W., Jang, D., Sukasih, A., and Peeckson, S. (2005). Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Data Quality
Study (NCES 2005-175). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Johnston, J., and Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Judge, G., Hill, W., Griffiths, R., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T. (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John
Wiley and Sons.
McFarland, J., Stark, P., and Cui, J. (2016). Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 2013
(NCES 2016-117). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Mitias, P., and Turnbull, G. (2001). Grant Illusion, Tax Illusion, and Local Government Spending. Public Finance Review, 29(5):
347–368.
Stark, P., and Noel, A.M. (2015). Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 1972–2012
(NCES 2015-015). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections, retrieved August 4, 2015, from
http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014.html.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and Economic Characteristics of Students,” 2014.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved August 4, 2015, from https://www2.census.
gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2014/national/asrh/.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 149

.

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 Appendix E
List of Abbreviations
ADA Average daily attendance

CCD Common Core of Data

CPI Consumer Price Index

CPS Current Population Survey

CV Coefficient of Variation

D.W. statistic Durbin-Watson statistic

FTE Full-time-equivalent

HEGIS Higher Education General Information Survey

IPEDS Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

IPEDS-C Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey

IPEDS-EF Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Fall Enrollment Survey

MAPE Mean absolute percentage error

NCES National Center for Education Statistics

PreK Prekindergarten

PreK–8 Prekindergarten through grade 8

PreK–12 Prekindergarten through grade 12

PSS Private School Survey

SASS Schools and Staffing Survey

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 151

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 Appendix F
Glossary
A Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test A statistic
testing the independence of errors in least-squares regression
Alternative school A public elementary/secondary school that against alternatives of first-order and higher degrees of serial
serves students whose needs cannot be met in a regular, special correlation. The test belongs to a class of asymptotic tests
education, or vocational school; may provide nontraditional known as the Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests.
education; and may serve as an adjunct to a regular school.
Although alternative schools fall outside the categories of
regular, special education, and vocational education, they C
may provide similar services or curriculum. Some examples Capital outlay Funds for the acquisition of land and
of alternative schools are schools for potential dropouts; buildings; building construction, remodeling, and additions;
residential treatment centers for substance abuse (if they the initial installation or extension of service systems and
provide elementary or secondary education); schools for chronic other built-in equipment; and site improvement. The
truants; and schools for students with behavioral problems. category also encompasses architectural and engineering
Associate’s degree A degree granted for the successful services including the development of blueprints.
completion of a sub-baccalaureate program of studies, usually Certificate A formal award certifying the satisfactory
requiring at least 2 years (or equivalent) of full-time college- completion of a postsecondary education program. Certificates
level study. This includes degrees granted in a cooperative or can be awarded at any level of postsecondary education and
work-study program. include awards below the associate’s degree level.
Autocorrelation Correlation of the error terms from different Classroom teacher A staff member assigned the professional
observations of the same variable. Also called Serial correlation. activities of instructing pupils in self-contained classes or
courses, or in classroom situations; usually expressed in full-
Average daily attendance (ADA) The aggregate attendance time equivalents.
of a school during a reporting period (normally a school year)
divided by the number of days school is in session during this Coefficient of variation (CV) Represents the ratio of the
period. Only days on which the pupils are under the guidance standard error to the estimate. For example, a CV of 30
and direction of teachers should be considered days in session. percent indicates that the standard error of the estimate is
equal to 30 percent of the estimate’s value. The CV is used to
Average daily membership (ADM) The aggregate compare the amount of variation relative to the magnitude of
membership of a school during a reporting period (normally the estimate. A CV of 30 percent or greater indicates that an
a school year) divided by the number of days school is in estimate should be interpreted with caution. For a discussion
session during this period. Only days on which the pupils of standard errors, see Appendix A: Guide to Sources.
are under the guidance and direction of teachers should be
considered as days in session. The average daily membership Cohort A group of individuals that have a statistical factor in
for groups of schools having varying lengths of terms is the common, for example, year of birth.
average of the average daily memberships obtained for the Cohort-component method A method for estimating
individual schools. Membership includes all pupils who are and projecting a population that is distinguished by its
enrolled, even if they do not actually attend. ability to preserve knowledge of an age distribution of
a population (which may be of a single sex, race, and
Hispanic origin) over time.
B
College A postsecondary school that offers general or liberal
Bachelor’s degree A degree granted for the successful arts education, usually leading to an associate’s, bachelor’s,
completion of a baccalaureate program of studies, usually master’s, or doctor’s degree. Junior colleges and community
requiring at least 4 years (or equivalent) of full-time college- colleges are included under this terminology.
level study. This includes degrees granted in a cooperative or
Constant dollars Dollar amounts that have been adjusted
work-study program.
by means of price and cost indexes to eliminate inflationary
factors and allow direct comparison across years.
Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 153
Consumer Price Index (CPI) This price index measures Enterprise operations Includes expenditures for activities
the average change in the cost of a fixed market basket of that are financed, at least in part, by user charges, similar to
goods and services purchased by consumers. Indexes vary a private business. These include operations funded by sales
for specific areas or regions, periods of time, major groups of products or services, together with amounts for direct
of consumer expenditures, and population groups. The CPI program support made by state education agencies for local
reflects spending patterns for two population groups: (1) all school districts.
urban consumers and urban wage earners and (2) clerical
Current expenditures per pupil in average daily
workers. CPIs are calculated for both the calendar year and
attendance Current expenditures for the regular school term
the school year using the U.S. All Items CPI for All Urban
divided by the average daily attendance of full-time pupils
Consumers (CPI-U). The calendar year CPI is the same
(or full-time equivalency of pupils) during the term. See also
as the annual CPI-U. The school year CPI is calculated by
Current expenditures and Average daily attendance.
adding the monthly CPI-U figures, beginning with July of
the first year and ending with June of the following year, and
then dividing that figure by 12. D
Control of institutions A classification of institutions Degree An award conferred by a college, university, or other
of elementary/secondary or postsecondary education by postsecondary education institution as official recognition
whether the institution is operated by publicly elected or for the successful completion of a program of studies.
appointed officials and derives its primary support from Refers specifically to associate’s or higher degrees conferred
public funds (public control) or is operated by privately by degree-granting institutions. See also Associate’s degree,
elected or appointed officials and derives its major source of Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree, and Doctor’s degree.
funds from private sources (private control).
Degree/certificate-seeking student A student enrolled in
Current dollars Dollar amounts that have not been adjusted courses for credit and recognized by the institution as seeking
to compensate for inflation. a degree, certificate, or other formal award. High school
Current expenditures (elementary/secondary) The students also enrolled in postsecondary courses for credit are
expenditures for operating local public schools, excluding not considered degree/certificate-seeking. See also Degree
capital outlay and interest on school debt. These expenditures and Certificate.
include such items as salaries for school personnel, benefits, Degree-granting institutions Postsecondary institutions
student transportation, school books and materials, and that are eligible for Title IV federal financial aid programs
energy costs. Beginning in 1980–81, expenditures for state and grant an associate’s or higher degree. For an institution
administration are excluded. to be eligible to participate in Title IV financial aid
Instruction expenditures Includes expenditures for programs it must offer a program of at least 300 clock
activities related to the interaction between teacher hours in length, have accreditation recognized by the U.S.
and students. Includes salaries and benefits for teachers Department of Education, have been in business for at
and instructional aides, textbooks, supplies, and least 2 years, and have signed a participation agreement
purchased services such as instruction via television. with the Department.
Also included are tuition expenditures to other local Degrees of freedom The number of free or linearly
education agencies. independent sample observations used in the calculation of a
Administration expenditures Includes expenditures for statistic. In a time series regression with t time periods and k
school administration (i.e., the office of the principal, full- independent variables including a constant term, there would
time department chairpersons, and graduation expenses), be t minus k degrees of freedom.
general administration (the superintendent and board of Department of Defense (DoD) dependents schools Schools
education and their immediate staff), and other support that are operated by the Department of Defense Education
services expenditures. Activity (a civilian agency of the U.S. Department of
Transportation Includes expenditures for vehicle Defense) and provide comprehensive prekindergarten
operation, monitoring, and vehicle servicing and through 12th-grade educational programs on military
maintenance. installations both within the United States and overseas.

Food services Includes all expenditures associated with Dependent variable A mathematical variable whose value
providing food to students and staff in a school or school is determined by that of one or more other variables in a
district. The services include preparing and serving regular function. In regression analysis, when a random variable, y,
and incidental meals or snacks in connection with school is expressed as a function of variables x1, x2, ... xk, plus a
activities, as well as the delivery of food to schools. stochastic term, then y is known as the “dependent variable.”

154 Appendix F: Glossary

Disposable personal income Current income received by graduates of school programs as well as those completing
people less their contributions for social insurance, personal high school through equivalency programs such as the
tax, and nontax payments. It is the income available to General Educational Development (GED) program.
people for spending and saving. Nontax payments include Transferring from a public school to a private school, for
passport fees, fines and penalties, donations, and tuitions example, is not regarded as a dropout event. A person who
and fees paid to schools and hospitals operated mainly by the drops out of school may later return and graduate but
government. See also Personal income. is called a “dropout” at the time he or she leaves school.
Doctor’s degree The highest award a student can earn Measures to describe these behaviors include the event
for graduate study. Includes such degrees as the Doctor dropout rate (or the closely related school persistence rate),
of Education (Ed.D.); the Doctor of Juridical Science the status dropout rate, and the high school completion rate.
(S.J.D.); the Doctor of Public Health (Dr.P.H.); and Durbin-Watson statistic A statistic testing the
the Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in any field, such as independence of errors in least squares regression against
agronomy, food technology, education, engineering, public the alternative of first-order serial correlation. The statistic
administration, ophthalmology, or radiology. The doctor’s is a simple linear transformation of the first-order serial
degree classification encompasses three main subcategories— correlation of residuals and, although its distribution is
research/scholarship degrees, professional practice degrees, unknown, it is tested by bounding statistics that follow R. L.
and other degrees—which are described below. Anderson’s distribution.
Doctor’s degree—research/scholarship A Ph.D. or other
doctor’s degree that requires advanced work beyond the
master’s level, including the preparation and defense of
E
a dissertation based on original research, or the planning Econometrics The quantitative examination of economic
and execution of an original project demonstrating trends and relationships using statistical techniques, and
substantial artistic or scholarly achievement. Examples of the development, examination, and refinement of those
this type of degree may include the following and others, techniques.
as designated by the awarding institution: the Ed.D. (in
education), D.M.A. (in musical arts), D.B.A. (in business Elementary school A school classified as elementary by state
administration), D.Sc. (in science), D.A. (in arts), or D.M. and local practice and composed of any span of grades not
(in medicine). above grade 8.

Doctor’s degree—professional practice A doctor’s Elementary/secondary school Includes only schools that
degree that is conferred upon completion of a program are part of state and local school systems, and also most
providing the knowledge and skills for the recognition, nonprofit private elementary/secondary schools, both
credential, or license required for professional practice. religiously affiliated and nonsectarian. Includes regular,
The degree is awarded after a period of study such that the alternative, vocational, and special education schools.
total time to the degree, including both preprofessional U.S. totals exclude federal schools for American Indians,
and professional preparation, equals at least 6 full-time- and federal schools on military posts and other federal
equivalent academic years. Some doctor’s degrees of this installations.
type were formerly classified as first-professional degrees. Enrollment The total number of students registered in a given
Examples of this type of degree may include the following school unit at a given time, generally in the fall of a year.
and others, as designated by the awarding institution: the
D.C. or D.C.M. (in chiropractic); D.D.S. or D.M.D. (in Estimate A numerical value obtained from a statistical
dentistry); L.L.B. or J.D. (in law); M.D. (in medicine); sample and assigned to a population parameter. The
O.D. (in optometry); D.O. (in osteopathic medicine); particular value yielded by an estimator in a given set of
Pharm.D. (in pharmacy); D.P.M., Pod.D., or D.P. (in circumstances or the rule by which such particular values are
podiatry); or D.V.M. (in veterinary medicine). calculated.
Doctor’s degree—other A doctor’s degree that does not Estimating equation An equation involving observed
meet the definition of either a doctor’s degree—research/ quantities and an unknown that serves to estimate the latter.
scholarship or a doctor’s degree—professional practice. Estimation Estimation is concerned with inference about
Double exponential smoothing A method that takes a single the numerical value of unknown population values from
smoothed average component of demand and smoothes it a incomplete data, such as a sample. If a single figure is
second time to allow for estimation of a trend effect. calculated for each unknown parameter, the process is called
point estimation. If an interval is calculated within which the
Dropout The term is used to describe both the event of
parameter is likely, in some sense, to lie, the process is called
leaving school before completing high school and the status
interval estimation.
of an individual who is not in school and who is not a high
school completer. High school completers include both

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 155

Expenditures, Total For elementary/secondary schools, Forecast An estimate of the future based on rational study
these include all charges for current outlays plus capital and analysis of available pertinent data, as opposed to
outlays and interest on school debt. For degree-granting subjective prediction.
institutions, these include current outlays plus capital
outlays. For government, these include charges net of Forecasting Assessing the magnitude that a quantity will
recoveries and other correcting transactions other than for assume at some future point in time, as distinct from
retirement of debt, investment in securities, extension of “estimation,” which attempts to assess the magnitude of an
credit, or as agency transactions. Government expenditures already existent quantity.
include only external transactions, such as the provision of For-profit institution A private institution in which the
perquisites or other payments in kind. Aggregates for groups individual(s) or agency in control receives compensation
of governments exclude intergovernmental transactions other than wages, rent, or other expenses for the
among the governments. assumption of risk.
Expenditures per pupil Charges incurred for a particular
FTE teacher See Instructional staff.
period of time divided by a student unit of measure, such as
average daily attendance or fall enrollment. Full-time enrollment The number of students enrolled
in postsecondary education courses with total credit load
Exponential smoothing A method used in time series
analysis to smooth or to predict a series. There are various equal to at least 75 percent of the normal full-time course
forms, but all are based on the supposition that more remote load. At the undergraduate level, full-time enrollment
history has less importance than more recent history. typically includes students who have a credit load of 12 or
more semester or quarter credits. At the postbaccalaureate
level, full-time enrollment includes students who typically
F have a credit load of 9 or more semester or quarter credits,
as well as other students who are considered full time by
Financial aid Grants, loans, assistantships, scholarships,
their institutions.
fellowships, tuition waivers, tuition discounts, veteran’s
benefits, employer aid (tuition reimbursement), and other Full-time-equivalent (FTE) enrollment For postsecondary
monies (other than from relatives or friends) provided to institutions, enrollment of full-time students, plus the
students to help them meet expenses. Except where designated, full-time equivalent of part-time students. The full-time
includes Title IV subsidized and unsubsidized loans made equivalent of the part-time students is estimated using
directly to students. different factors depending on the type and control of
First-order serial correlation When errors in one time period institution and level of student.
are correlated directly with errors in the ensuing time period. Function A mathematical correspondence that assigns
First-professional degree NCES no longer uses this exactly one element of one set to each element of the same
classification. Most degrees formerly classified as first- or another set. A variable that depends on and varies with
professional (such as M.D., D.D.S., Pharm.D., D.V.M., another.
and J.D.) are now classified as doctor’s degrees—professional
Functional form A mathematical statement of the
practice. However, master’s of divinity degrees are now
relationship among the variables in a model.
classified as master’s degrees.
First-time student (undergraduate) A student who
has no prior postsecondary experience (except as noted G
below) attending any institution for the first time at the
Geographic region One of the four regions of the United
undergraduate level. Includes students enrolled in the fall term
States used by the U.S. Census Bureau, as follows:
who attended college for the first time in the prior summer
term, and students who entered with advanced standing
(college credits earned before graduation from high school). Northeast Midwest
Fiscal year A period of 12 months for which accounting Connecticut (CT) Illinois (IL)
records are compiled. Institutions and states may designate Maine (ME) Indiana (IN)
their own accounting period, though most states use a July Massachusetts (MA) Iowa (IA)
New Hampshire (NH) Kansas (KS)
1 through June 30 accounting year. The yearly accounting New Jersey (NJ) Michigan (MI)
period for the federal government begins on October 1 New York (NY) Minnesota (MN)
and ends on the following September 30. The fiscal year Pennsylvania (PA) Missouri (MO)
is designated by the calendar year in which it ends; e.g., Rhode Island (RI) Nebraska (NE)
fiscal year 2006 begins on October 1, 2005, and ends on Vermont (VT) North Dakota (ND)
September 30, 2006. (From fiscal year 1844 to fiscal year Ohio (OH)
1976, the federal fiscal year began on July 1 and ended on South Dakota (SD)
Wisconsin (WI)
the following June 30.)
156 Appendix F: Glossary
 Higher education Study beyond secondary school at an
South West institution that offers programs terminating in an associate’s,
Alabama (AL) Alaska (AK) bachelor’s, or higher degree.
Arkansas (AR) Arizona (AZ)
Delaware (DE) California (CA)
District of Columbia (DC) Colorado (CO) I
Florida (FL) Hawaii (HI)
Georgia (GA) Idaho (ID) Income tax Taxes levied on net income, that is, on gross
Kentucky (KY) Montana (MT) income less certain deductions permitted by law. These
Louisiana (LA) Nevada (NV) taxes can be levied on individuals or on corporations or
Maryland (MD) New Mexico (NM) unincorporated businesses where the income is taxed
Mississippi (MS) Oregon (OR)
North Carolina (NC) Utah (UT) distinctly from individual income.
Oklahoma (OK) Washington (WA) Independent variable In regression analysis, a random
South Carolina (SC) Wyoming (WY) variable, y, is expressed as a function of variables x1,
Tennessee (TN)
Texas (TX) x2, ... xk, plus a stochastic term; the x’s are known as
Virginia (VA) “independent variables.’’
West Virginia (WV) Inflation A rise in the general level of prices of goods
and services in an economy over a period of time, which
Graduate An individual who has received formal generally corresponds to a decline in the real value of money
recognition for the successful completion of a prescribed or a loss of purchasing power. See also Constant dollars and
program of studies. Purchasing Power Parity indexes.

Graduate enrollment The number of students who are Instruction (elementary and secondary) Instruction
working towards a master’s or doctor’s degree and students who encompasses all activities dealing directly with the interaction
are in postbaccalaureate classes but not in degree programs. between teachers and students. Teaching may be provided
for students in a school classroom, in another location such
as a home or hospital, and in other learning situations such
H as those involving co-curricular activities. Instruction may be
provided through some other approved medium, such as the
High school A secondary school offering the final years of Internet, television, radio, telephone, and correspondence.
high school work necessary for graduation, usually includes
grades 10, 11, 12 (in a 6-3-3 plan) or grades 9, 10, 11, and Instructional staff Full-time-equivalent number of
12 (in a 6-2-4 plan). positions, not the number of different individuals occupying
the positions during the school year. In local schools,
High school completer An individual who has been awarded includes all public elementary and secondary (junior and
a high school diploma or an equivalent credential, including senior high) day-school positions that are in the nature of
a General Educational Development (GED) certificate. teaching or in the improvement of the teaching-learning
High school diploma A formal document regulated by the situation; includes consultants or supervisors of instruction,
state certifying the successful completion of a prescribed principals, teachers, guidance personnel, librarians,
secondary school program of studies. In some states or psychological personnel, and other instructional staff, and
communities, high school diplomas are differentiated by excludes administrative staff, attendance personnel, clerical
type, such as an academic diploma, a general diploma, or a personnel, and junior college staff.
vocational diploma. Interest on debt Includes expenditures for long-term debt
High school equivalency certificate A formal document service interest payments (i.e., those longer than 1 year).
certifying that an individual has met the state requirements Interpolation See Linear interpolation.
for high school graduation equivalency by obtaining
satisfactory scores on an approved examination and meeting
other performance requirements (if any) set by a state L
education agency or other appropriate body. One particular
version of this certificate is the General Educational Lag An event occurring at time t + k (k > 0) is said to lag
Development (GED) test. The GED test is a comprehensive behind an event occurring at time t, the extent of the lag
being k. An event occurring k time periods before another
test used primarily to appraise the educational development
may be regarded as having a negative lag.
of students who have not completed their formal high school
education and who may earn a high school equivalency Lead time When forecasting a statistic, the number of time
certificate by achieving satisfactory scores. GEDs are awarded periods since the last time period of actual data for that
by the states or other agencies, and the test is developed and statistic used in producing the forecast.
distributed by the GED Testing Service (a joint venture of
the American Council on Education and Pearson).

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 157

Level of school A classification of elementary/secondary O
schools by instructional level. Includes elementary schools,
secondary schools, and combined elementary and secondary Ordinary least squares (OLS) The estimator that minimizes
schools. See also Elementary school, Secondary school, and the sum of squared residuals.
Combined elementary and secondary school.
Linear interpolation A method that allows the prediction P
of an unknown value if any two particular values on the same
scale are known and the rate of change is assumed constant. Parameter A quantity that describes a statistical population.
Local education agency (LEA) See School district. Part-time enrollment The number of students enrolled in
postsecondary education courses with a total credit load less
than 75 percent of the normal full-time credit load. At the
M undergraduate level, part-time enrollment typically includes
students who have a credit load of less than 12 semester or
Master’s degree A degree awarded for successful quarter credits. At the postbaccalaureate level, part-time
completion of a program generally requiring 1 or 2 years enrollment typically includes students who have a credit load
of full-time college-level study beyond the bachelor’s of less than 9 semester or quarter credits.
degree. One type of master’s degree, including the Master
of Arts degree, or M.A., and the Master of Science degree, Personal income Current income received by people from
or M.S., is awarded in the liberal arts and sciences for all sources, minus their personal contributions for social
advanced scholarship in a subject field or discipline insurance. Classified as “people” are individuals (including
and demonstrated ability to perform scholarly research. owners of unincorporated firms), nonprofit institutions
A second type of master’s degree is awarded for the serving individuals, private trust funds, and private
completion of a professionally oriented program, for noninsured welfare funds. Personal income includes transfers
example, an M.Ed. in education, an M.B.A. in business (payments not resulting from current production) from
administration, an M.F.A. in fine arts, an M.M. in music, government and business such as social security benefits and
an M.S.W. in social work, and an M.P.A. in public military pensions, but excludes transfers among people.
administration. Some master’s degrees—such as divinity Postbaccalaureate enrollment The number of students
degrees (M.Div. or M.H.L./Rav), which were formerly working towards advanced degrees and of students enrolled
classified as “first-professional”—may require more than 2 in graduate-level classes but not enrolled in degree programs.
years of full-time study beyond the bachelor’s degree. See also Graduate enrollment.
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) The average value Postsecondary education The provision of formal
of the absolute value of errors expressed in percentage terms. instructional programs with a curriculum designed primarily
Migration Geographic mobility involving a change of usual for students who have completed the requirements for a
residence between clearly defined geographic units, that is, high school diploma or equivalent. This includes programs
between counties, states, or regions. of an academic, vocational, and continuing professional
education purpose, and excludes avocational and adult basic
Model A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as education programs.
a mathematical description of a phenomenon, such as an actual
system or process. The actual phenomenon is represented by the Postsecondary institutions (basic classification by level)
model in order to explain, predict, and control it.
4-year institution An institution offering at least a 4-year
program of college-level studies wholly or principally
N creditable toward a baccalaureate degree.

Non-degree-granting institutions Postsecondary 2-year institution An institution offering at least a

institutions that participate in Title IV federal financial aid 2-year program of college-level studies which terminates
programs but do not offer accredited 4-year or 2-year degree in an associate degree or is principally creditable toward
programs. Includes some institutions transitioning to higher a baccalaureate degree. Data prior to 1996 include some
level program offerings, though still classified at a lower level. institutions that have a less-than-2-year program, but
were designated as institutions of higher education in the
Nonresident alien A person who is not a citizen of the Higher Education General Information Survey.
United States and who is in this country on a temporary
basis and does not have the right to remain indefinitely. Less-than-2-year institution An institution that
offers programs of less than 2 years’ duration below
Nursery school An instructional program for groups of the baccalaureate level. Includes occupational and
children during the year or years preceding kindergarten, vocational schools with programs that do not exceed
which provides educational experiences under the direction 1,800 contact hours.
of teachers. See also Prekindergarten and Preschool.

158 Appendix F: Glossary

Prekindergarten Preprimary education for children typically National Christian School Association, National Society
ages 3–4 who have not yet entered kindergarten. It may offer for Hebrew Day Schools, Solomon Schechter Day Schools,
a program of general education or special education and may and Southern Baptist Association of Christian Schools—
be part of a collaborative effort with Head Start. or indicating membership in “other religious school
associations.” Unaffiliated schools are those “Other religious”
Preschool An instructional program enrolling children
schools that have a religious orientation or purpose but are
generally younger than 5 years of age and organized to
not classified as Conservative Christian or affiliated.
provide children with educational experiences under
professionally qualified teachers during the year or years Nonsectarian Schools that do not have a religious orientation
immediately preceding kindergarten (or prior to entry into or purpose and are categorized according to program
elementary school when there is no kindergarten). See also emphasis, provided by respondents, into regular, special
Nursery school and Prekindergarten. emphasis, and special education schools. Regular schools
are those that have a regular elementary/secondary or early
Primary school A school with at least one grade lower than
childhood program emphasis. Special emphasis schools are
5 and no grade higher than 8.
those that have a Montessori, vocational/technical, alternative,
Private institution An institution that is controlled by an or special program emphasis. Special education schools are
individual or agency other than a state, a subdivision of a state, those that have a special education program emphasis.
or the federal government, which is usually supported primarily
Projection In relation to a time series, an estimate of future
by other than public funds, and the operation of whose program
values based on a current trend.
rests with other than publicly elected or appointed officials.
Public school or institution A school or institution
Private nonprofit institution An institution in which the
controlled and operated by publicly elected or appointed
individual(s) or agency in control receives no compensation
officials and deriving its primary support from public funds.
other than wages, rent, or other expenses for the assumption
of risk. These include both independent nonprofit Pupil/teacher ratio The enrollment of pupils at a given
institutions and those affiliated with a religious organization. period of time, divided by the full-time-equivalent
number of classroom teachers serving these pupils during
Private for-profit institution An institution in which the
the same period.
individual(s) or agency in control receives compensation
other than wages, rent, or other expenses for the assumption
of risk (e.g., proprietary schools). R
Private school Private elementary/secondary schools R2 The coefficient of determination; the square of the
surveyed by the Private School Universe Survey (PSS) are correlation coefficient between the dependent variable and its
assigned to one of three major categories (Catholic, other ordinary least squares (OLS) estimate.
religious, or nonsectarian) and, within each major category,
one of three subcategories based on the school’s religious Racial/ethnic group Classification indicating general
affiliation provided by respondents. racial or ethnic heritage. Race/ethnicity data are based on
the Hispanic ethnic category and the race categories listed
Catholic Schools categorized according to governance, below (five single-race categories, plus the Two or more
provided by Catholic school respondents, into parochial, races category). Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic
diocesan, and private schools. ethnicity unless otherwise noted.
Other religious Schools that have a religious orientation White A person having origins in any of the original
or purpose but are not Roman Catholic. Other religious peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa.
schools are categorized according to religious association
membership, provided by respondents, into Conservative Black or African American A person having origins
Christian, other affiliated, and unaffiliated schools. in any of the black racial groups of Africa. Used
Conservative Christian schools are those “Other religious” interchangeably with the shortened term Black.
schools with membership in at least one of four associations: Hispanic or Latino A person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto
Accelerated Christian Education, American Association Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish
of Christian Schools, Association of Christian Schools culture or origin, regardless of race. Used interchangeably
International, and Oral Roberts University Education with the shortened term Hispanic.
Fellowship. Affiliated schools are those “Other religious”
schools not classified as Conservative Christian with Asian A person having origins in any of the original peoples
membership in at least 1 of 11 associations—Association of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the Indian subcontinent,
of Christian Teachers and Schools, Christian Schools including, for example, Cambodia, China, India, Japan,
International, Evangelical Lutheran Education Association, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand,
Friends Council on Education, General Conference of the and Vietnam. Prior to 2010–11, the Common Core of Data
Seventh-Day Adventist Church, Islamic School League (CCD) combined Asian and Pacific Islander categories.
of America, National Association of Episcopal Schools,

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 159

 Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander A person School district An education agency at the local level that
having origins in any of the original peoples of Hawaii, exists primarily to operate public schools or to contract
Guam, Samoa, or other Pacific Islands. Prior to 2010–11, for public school services. Synonyms are “local basic
the Common Core of Data (CCD) combined Asian and administrative unit” and “local education agency.”
Pacific Islander categories. Used interchangeably with the
shortened term Pacific Islander. Secondary enrollment The total number of students
registered in a school beginning with the next grade
American Indian or Alaska Native A person having following an elementary or middle school (usually 7, 8, or 9)
origins in any of the original peoples of North and South and ending with or below grade 12 at a given time.
America (including Central America), and who maintains
tribal affiliation or community attachment. Senior high school A secondary school offering the final
years of high school work necessary for graduation.
Two or more races A person identifying himself or herself
as of two or more of the following race groups: White, Serial correlation Correlation of the error terms from
Black, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, different observations of the same variable. Also called
or American Indian or Alaska Native. Some, but not all, Autocorrelation.
reporting districts use this category. “Two or more races” Special education school A public elementary/secondary
was introduced in the 2000 Census and became a regular school that focuses primarily on special education for
category for data collection in the Current Population children with disabilities and that adapts curriculum,
Survey (CPS) in 2003. The category is sometimes excluded materials, or instruction for students served.
from a historical series of data with constant categories. It
is sometimes included within the category “Other.” Standard error of estimate An expression for the standard
deviation of the observed values about a regression line. An
Region See Geographic region. estimate of the variation likely to be encountered in making
Regression analysis A statistical technique for investigating predictions from the regression equation.
and modeling the relationship between variables. Student An individual for whom instruction is provided in
Regular school A public elementary/secondary or charter an educational program under the jurisdiction of a school,
school providing instruction and education services that does school system, or other education institution. No distinction
not focus primarily on special education, vocational/technical is made between the terms “student” and “pupil,” though
education, or alternative education. “student” may refer to one receiving instruction at any
level while “pupil” refers only to one attending school at
Resident population Includes civilian population and the elementary or secondary level. A student may receive
armed forces personnel residing within the United States;
instruction in a school facility or in another location, such
excludes armed forces personnel residing overseas.
as at home or in a hospital. Instruction may be provided
Revenue All funds received from external sources, net of by direct student-teacher interaction or by some other
refunds, and correcting transactions. Noncash transactions, such approved medium such as television, radio, telephone, and
as receipt of services, commodities, or other receipts in kind correspondence.
are excluded, as are funds received from the issuance of debt,
liquidation of investments, and nonroutine sale of property. Student membership Student membership is an annual
headcount of students enrolled in school on October 1 or
Revenue receipts Additions to assets that do not incur an the school day closest to that date. The Common Core of
obligation that must be met at some future date and do not Data (CCD) allows a student to be reported for only a single
represent exchanges of property for money. Assets must be school or agency. For example, a vocational school (identified
available for expenditures. as a “shared time” school) may provide classes for students
Rho A measure of the correlation coefficient between errors from a number of districts and show no membership.
in time period t and time period t minus 1.
T
S Teacher see Instructional staff.
Salary The total amount regularly paid or stipulated to be Time series A set of ordered observations on a quantitative
paid to an individual, before deductions, for personal services characteristic of an individual or collective phenomenon
rendered while on the payroll of a business or organization. taken at different points in time. Usually the observations
School A division of the school system consisting of students are successive and equally spaced in time.
in one or more grades or other identifiable groups and Time series analysis The branch of quantitative forecasting
organized to give instruction of a defined type. One school in which data for one variable are examined for patterns of
may share a building with another school or one school may trend, seasonality, and cycle.
be housed in several buildings. Excludes schools that have
closed or are planned for the future.

160 Appendix F: Glossary

Type of school A classification of public elementary and
secondary schools that includes the following categories:
regular schools, special education schools, vocational schools,
and alternative schools. See also Regular school, Special
education school, Vocational school, and Alternative school.

U
Unadjusted dollars See Current dollars.
Undergraduate students Students registered at an institution
of postsecondary education who are working in a baccalaureate
degree program or other formal program below the baccalaureate,
such as an associate’s degree, vocational, or technical program.
Ungraded student (elementary/secondary) A student who
has been assigned to a school or program that does not have
standard grade designations.

V
Variable A quantity that may assume any one of a set of values.

Y
Years out In forecasting by year, the number of years
since the last year of actual data for that statistic used in
producing the forecast.

Projections of Education Statistics to 2025 161

www.ed.gov ies.ed.gov