RCVL Valuation and Market Analysis
RCVL Valuation and Market Analysis
RCVL
Leveraging the power of scale and technology
March 3, 2006
1
Table of contents
Slide No.
 Investment summary 5
 RCVL Valuation:
Valuation benchmarked to Bharti 12
DCF valuation of current business 13
 Consumer Broadband
Revenue opportunity 14
Valuation 15
 Valuation Comparison 16
 Appendix 19
2
Current share holding structure
63%
ADAG 37% Public
RCVL
1224mn shares
64.4%
9%
Economic Interest
in B RCIL RIC RTL
Of
 Reliance Communication Infrastructure (RCIL) holds the entire network excluding the mobile
network. This is leased to RIC on an IRU basis
 Reliance Infocom (RIC) holds the CDMA mobile business and the assets of FLAG/FALCON
 Reliance Telecom (RTL) holds the the GSM mobile assets and business
3
Consolidation will lead to dilution
 Promoter Group (ADAG) has indicated that structure will collapse into a single
entity
ADAG would have to exchange its shares in RCIL, RIC and RTL into those of RCVL.
 The relative valuation of RCIL and RIC will determine the increase in shares of
RCVL and the potential dilution for the public.
We have attributed 20% of the equity value of entire Infocom business to RCIL- the infrastructure
company
We estimate ADAG shareholding at 61% on an expanded equity of around 1988mn shares
Valuation of Reliance Telecom will have minimal impact due to its low value
Value share
RCVL (%)
of RCIL in
20% 61% 39% 1988
RIC and RTL 25% 62% 38% 2022
30% 63% 37% 2057
35% 63% 37% 2094
4
Investment Summary
 RIC has been conceived to enable 3 revolutions: Wireless, Enterprise broadband
and Consumer broadband
Mobile business uses a fraction of the capability and capacity of the network
Enterprise broadband and consumer broadband will unleash its full potential
 The relative valuation of RCIL and RIC will determine the increase in shares of
RCVL and the potential dilution for the public.
We have based our analysis on a expanded equity base of 1988mn shares
 Potential upside from Consumer broadband (CBB) is around $4bn (base case)
This is based on assumptions for addressable market and RCVL market share
This translates into a share price of Rs 91 (assuming 1988m shares)
We realize that CBB opportunity carries significant execution risk and use a discount rate of 25%
 Our forecasts for RCVL (FY07E): Revenue - Rs 161bn ($4.4bn), EBIDTA - Rs 46bn
($1bn)
 Our medium term target price for RCVL is Rs 340-350 per share
5
Reliance Infocomm: the story so far….
High
Valuations rise as
co. prove abilities
in establishing
dominant position
Marketing
prowess &
Infocomm has successfully demonstrated the largest CDMA collections
deployment in the world. Organizational
Valuation
FL offerings scale-up
with Globalization
Innovative broadband
Large scale
handset and Cable services
capacity built Billing system
tariff plans Gaming & VOD
up v/s flaws
CDMA v/s modular roll- Bad debt
GSM battle out Regulatory
problems
Product High upfront issues:
Largest CDMA
superiority investments roaming
deployment in
v/s network could strain the world
effects B/S
Low
Present stage
Source: ENAM Research
6
Wireless: lagging Bharti by a year
Wireless revenues Wireless EBIDTA Gross ARPU
25,000 10,000 40 600
(Rs.mn) (Rs.mn) (%) (Rs.mn)
35 500
20,000 8,000
30
400
15,000 6,000 25
20 300
10,000 4,000 15 200
5,000 10
2,000 100
5
0 0 0 0
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06
Bharti RCVL EBIDTA - Bharti EBIDTA - RCVL Bharti RCVL
OPM - Bharti (RHS) OPM - RCVL (RHS)
7
Enterprise broadband (EBB) needs to scale rapidly
Revenue  RCVL needs to significantly ramp up
7,000
6,000
(Rs.mn) its EBB business
5,000 RCVL has a technological edge in this
4,000 business which it needs to translate into
3,000
tangible financials
2,000
1,000
0
 Currently operational in 29 cities
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 Fiber rings in business districts and close to
Bharti RCVL commercial buildings are operational
` buildings passed – 50,000
EBITDA & OPM
2,000 40
(Rs.mn) (%) Â RCVL offers around 14 products and
30
1,500 services by leveraging its fibre-rich
20
1,000 10 network
500 0 Products include Centrex, E1 DID, MPLS –
(10)
0 VPN
(20)
(500) (30)
 50% share of the IDC (hosting) biz
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06
EBIDTA - Bharti EBIDTA - RCVL
OPM - Bharti (RHS) OPM - RCVL (RHS)
8
Long Distance: Leveraging FLAG in key to margin
expansion
Revenues EBIDTA Revenue breakdown
20,000 2,500 50
(Rs.mn) (Rs.mn) (%) (RCVL)
2,000 40 Managed NLD
15,000
data wholesale
1,500 30 Leased 1% 39%
10,000 lines
1,000 20 7%
5,000
500 10
IRU
0 0 0 8% ILD
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 ILD retail wholesale
13% 32%
Bharti RCVL EBIDTA - Bharti EBIDTA - RCVL
OPM - Bharti (RHS) OPM - RCVL (RHS)
 RCVL claims a 46% share of the International Long Distance (ILD) minutes
We estimate total ILD minutes (incoming + outgoing) at around 10bn in FY06E
9
RCVL: Closing the gap with Bharti..
Bharti RCVL
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06
Customers
Wireless (mn) 12.26 14.07 16.33 11.65 13.00 14.68 RCVL customer base is largely similar to that
Fixed Wireless/Wireline 0.93 1.06 1.20 1.72 2.09 2.57 of Bharti – however there are significant
Total (m) 13.19 15.13 17.53 13.37 15.08 17.25 differences in ARPU, MoU and churn rates
Mkt share - wireless 21.6% 21.8% 21.7% 20.5% 20.2% 19.5%
Network Coverage
Census Tows - - 3,300 - - 3,684
Villages - - - - - 235,971
Population - - 38% - - 54%
Backbone (rkms) - - 30,000 - - 60,000
Traffic (mn mins/day) 148 170 208 - - 320 Though RCVL topline is similar to that of
MoU (mins) 383 388 411 510 568 547 Bharti, a divisional breakdown reflects the
fact that RCVL has yet to scale its
Gross ARPU (Rs/month) 493 476 470 399 420 412 enterprise and broadband business
Net ARPU (Rs/month) 345 338 336 255 266 271
10
..but enterprise biz yet to scale up
Divisional Performance
(Rs. bn) Bharti RCVL
1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06 1QFY06 2QFY06 3QF06
Revenues (Rs. bn)
Wireless 17.5 19.1 21.7 15.1 18.1 20.0
Long distance 5.2 5.6 6.3 14.8 16.2 17.9
Broadband & Enterprise 5.0 5.4 5.7 1.0 0.9 1.3
Intersegment (2.5) (2.9) (3.5) (6.3) (7.3) (5.9)
Total 25.2 27.1 30.3 24.5 27.9 33.3
Margins (%)
Wireless 34.8 36.5 36.5 22.7 28.0 31.9
Long distance 35.9 36.3 33.7 1.9 5.5 11.1
Broadband & Enterprise 32.8 28.1 27.6 (23.8) 14.4 19.0
Total 37.4 37.7 37.0 6.8 14.9 25.5
11
RCVL: Valuation of current business
Bharti RCVL
FY06E FY07E FY06E FY07E
Wireless Wireless assumptions:
Mobile subs India 89 125 89 125
Mkt share 21.5% 21.5% 19.3% 19.3% RIC to maintain its wireless mkt-share
Co mobile subs 19.17 26.83 17.2 24.1 Expect EBIDTA margins to average 33% as
FWT 3.0 4.2
Total subs 19.2 26.8 20.2 28.2 against 32% in 3QFY06E
ARPU 462 402 342
Discount to Bharti 85% Long Distance assumptions
Revenues 83,581 110,936 75,046 99,194
Margin 35% 36% 33% We have assumed it to grow at the same rate as
EBIDTA 28,835 39,382 32,734 that of Bharti
Long distance Expect EBIDTA margins of around 13% as against
Revenue 23,785 25,979 68,570 85,713 11% in 3QFY06E.
YoY 25%
Margin 30.5% 30.0% 13% 30% of revenues are currently accounted by US-
EBIDTA 7,254 7,794 - 11,143 India calling card where the margin will be around
Enterprise 9-10%
Revenue 22,627 30,703 4,556 7,290
YoY 25% 60%
Margin 32.8% 29.7% 30% Enterprise business assumptions:
EBIDTA 7,433 9,120 2,187 RIC to grow at faster rate than Bharti (low base)
Less Intersegment (13,545) (15,492) (25,935) (31,122) Expect EBIDTA margins to average 30% as
against 19% in 3QFY06E
Total Revenues (Rs mn) 116,448 152,127 122,237 161,075
Total EBIDTA (Rs mn) 43,850 56,766 46,064
EV/EBIDTA 16 13 11 Valuation
EV 719,929 506,700
Net debt (Rs mn) 38,000 36,000 Bharti currently trades at an FY07 EV/EBIDTA
Equity value (Rs mn) 681,929 470,700 multiple of 12x and 13x for consensus and ENAM
Equity value ($bn) 15.2 10.5
No of shares 1889 1,988 estimates respectively
Equity value (Rs/share) 361 237
12
DCF valuation for existing business
(Rs. bn) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Year 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sales 192 240 286 355 453 553 672 711 731 730 707 660
EBIDTA 41 60 87 115 163 220 285 289 286 276 260 241
Less Tax 0 0 0 (2) (5) (10) (18) (29) (38) (45) (47) (46)
Total Cash Inflow 41 60 87 114 158 210 268 260 247 231 213 195
Capex 54 70 91 105 115 126 136 136 133 131 128 125
Change in working capital (4) (22) (23) (22) (29) (24) (18) (9) (1) 5 8 (16)
Total cash outflow 50 49 68 83 86 101 118 127 132 135 136 109
Free Cash Flow (9) 11 19 31 72 109 150 134 115 96 77 86
13
Consumer broadband: Sizing the revenue
opportunity
Consumer broadband
Revenues: Rs 214bn ($4.7bn)
Exhibition: Rs 12bn (30%) Broadcasters: Rs 51bn Broadcasters: Rs 16bn Channel operator: Rs 2.5bn
Production: Rs 12-14bn (30-35%) Of which Production: Rs 20bn LCO: Rs 70bn
Internet
Ad agency: Rs 0.5bn
Distribution: Rs 3-4bn (8-10%) Ad agencies: Rs 9bn MSO: Rs 4bn Rs 14bn
Of which Processing: Rs 0.9bn DTH:
Note: Tax is about 30% of film collections Broadband
 Current landscape
Under capitalized and poorly regulated cable industry does not have the resources to upgrade technology
Incumbent telcos have rolled out broadband internet and are conducting trials of IPTV
14
Consumer Broadband Business Scenarios
FY2009
Current Optimistic Pessimistic Most Likely Comment/Assumption
Cable Homes (mn) - All India 60 91.25 Current cable homes based on NRS estimates.
Share of cable homes in top 200 cities 50% 50% 50% Growth assumed @10% p.a
Addressable Mkt -Top 200 cities (mn) 45.6 45.6 45.6 We believe this is a realistic estimate
ARPU (Rs/month)
- Cable 250 333 289 289
YoY growth 10% 5% 5%
- Internet 200 200 123 146 Current ARPU is based on TRAI report Sept'05
YoY growth 0% -15% -10%
- Voice 700 700 430 510 Current ARPU based on post-paid mobile ARPU in
YoY growth 0% -15% -10% Metro & Cat A circles as per TRAI
- Value added services 100 58 Non-voice revenues currently account for 10% of
% of cable ARPU 30% 20% mobile ARPU - we have benchmarked against that
Total ARPU (Rs/month) 1,150 1,333 842 1,009
ARPU p. a ($) 307 355 224 268 Bharti's current Fixed line/broadband ARPU is ~$302
Addressable Mkt by 2009 ( $ bn) 16.2 10.2 12.2
Projections
Estimated Market share 30% 15% 20% Average mkt share (FY2009) of RCVL
Subscribers (mn) 13.7 6.8 9.1
Revenues ($ bn) 4.9 1.5 2.4
EBITDA (40% margin) 1.9 0.6 1.0 RCVL has indicated this level of margin.
Valuation
EV/EBITDA (X) 12 10 10
EV ($ bn in April 2009) 23.3 6.1 9.8
Implied EV/Sub ($, in 2009) 1,706 898 1,070 Bharti's mobile subscriber currently trades at EV of ~$740
Discounting Rate 25%
EV Discounted to present ($ bn) 12.0 3.1 5.1
Net debt ($ bn) 1.0 1.0 1.0 We believe RCVL will have to spend $1bn for CBB
Equity value ($ bn) 11.0 2.1 4.0 which will debt-financed
Equity value (Rs/ share) 247 48 91 Assuming 1998 shares
15
Valuation comparison
Company Name Price/ Mkt Cap Period Net sales Sales EBITDA PAT EBITDA FDEPS EPS gwth RoCE RoE Adj.P/E EV/ Mkt cap/
FV (Rs.bn) (Rs.mn) gwth (%) (Rs.mn) (Rs.mn) margin (%) (Rs.) (%) (%) (%) (x) EBITDA (X) sales (x)
Bharti 376 710 FY04 48,320 15,970 5,076 33.1 2.7 9.8 12.7 137.3 46.9 14.7
10 FY05 80,028 66 30,128 14,977 37.6 8.1 195 17.1 30.2 46.5 24.8 8.9
FY06E 116,448 46 43,850 22,717 37.7 12.0 49 20.2 33.4 31.3 17.1 6.1
FY07E 152,127 31 56,766 29,190 37.3 15.5 28 20.8 31.0 24.3 13.2 4.7
VSNL 367 105 FY04 31,642 5,306 3,434 16.8 12.1 5.9 6.4 30.5 19.7 3.3
10 FY05 33,030 4 7,691 3,338 23.3 11.7 (3) 5.9 6.1 31.3 13.6 3.2
FY06E 37,586 14 8,358 3,639 22.2 12.8 9 6.0 6.2 28.8 12.5 2.8
FY07E 44,543 19 9,752 4,455 21.9 15.6 22 7.1 7.3 23.5 10.7 2.3
MTNL 144 91 FY04 63,696 19,500 11,505 30.6 18.3 5.9 6.4 7.9 2.3 1.6
10 FY05 55,924 (12) 13,478 9,390 24.1 14.9 (18) 5.9 6.1 9.6 3.4 1.9
FY06E 50,983 (9) 9,536 7,129 18.7 11.3 (24) 6.0 6.2 12.7 4.8 2.1
FY07E 56,066 10 11,896 8,039 21.2 12.8 13 7.1 7.3 11.3 3.8 1.9
16
Key management personnel
Anil Ambani
Before joining Infocomm, Mr Mr Khurana is a very well-respected figure in the Indian Mr Bajpai was previously with
Shukla was with Reliance Telecom telecom industry. Tatas and responsible for their
(the GSM business) fixed –line business in Mumbai
and Maharashtra
17
In conclusion
 Significant visibility of existing business - $10.5bn valuation sustainable
Discount to Bharti is warranted to lower quality of customer base
18
Appendix
RCVL Network Infrastructure
RCVL business strategy
19
RCVL: Network Infrastructure and Technology
 Wireless Network: CDMA 1X RTT, Radio Network largely from Lucent
Network dimensioned for 30m subscribers
Pan-India coverage; rivaled only by that of incumbent BSNL
RTL has a GSM network largely in the East and North-east states of India
 Metro Ethernet
Self healing rings in 200 cities/towns. G655 fiber which can transmit upto 64 lambdas of 10Gbps each
The base-stations of the CDMA radio-network are connected to this ring network
Currently enterprise business is operational in 29 cities which utilize these self-healing rings
20
Wireless Strategy- To effect a disruptive change
 Offering based on a robust, scalable, Technology platform
CDMA 1x 2000 RTT network currently dimensioned for 30m subscribers
` High initial capacity and lower cost/erlang (than GSM) especially under “coverage-constrained” conditions.
` Supports high speed wireless data services and facilitates smooth and cost effective transition to EV-DO/EV-DV
i.e. 3G
21
Wireless strategy: Micro-economics
 The strategy to expand the leadership margin…
Significant start-up
Offers low voice Encourages higher Forces higher capex
capacity to take
prices & free content Minutes of Usage on competitors
advantage of scale
Network sized up Offers lowest prices on Infocomm’s MOU is Price content cheaply -
30mn subscribers the street and content substantially higher -- as subscriber base
Attractive financing is free than its GSM builds up
options to seed the Lower revenue per counterparts which Modular roll-out will
CDMA hand-sets minute as content is acts as a deterrent for restrict economies of
Lock consumers and free the consumer to switch scale and hence ability
lower churn Lower margins in the services to price content
short-term Get consumers economically
habituated to a higher
level of MoU and its
R-world content
offering
22
Broadband : the key drivers…
The key drivers of broadband penetration
p r
de latf y fr Most of initiatives have been routed through
ad a
ve orm am
d rn
an t u
lo
pm fo ew the incumbent telcos (BSNL & MTNL) which
db in
en r ap ork
oa es
ica
rp
n
Lo
BSNL has an offer which bundles a basic PC Applications such as VOD, gaming, etc.
with its broadband offering. facilitate broadband penetration
The consumer pays for the PC and the Local language content necessary for mass
subscription on a monthly basis. broadband adoption
Top 10 websites in Korea are local regional
content
23
Reliance CBB Strategy: plugging it all
RIC insight
Infrastructure
for access 60,000 kms of fiber optic roll-out supporting
terabyte bandwidth capacity – ensures no
capacity constraints well into the future
y es
Av
Offering based on Gigabit ethernet
lit ot
ai pro
e. ua m
la m ac
bi o c
ur q ro
technology
lit te es
ct o r p
y
ru f ls
of s p s d e
st nd eve
vi rol vi
fra a t l
ab ife ce
in dem ten
le ra s
er con
in tio
fra n
Reinforcing
rth d
st of
fu ase
ru
growth cycle
ct
e
cr
ur
In
e
Proliferation of access devices
Content promotes content creation Access
24
Consumer Broadband offering
A high speed optical Gigabit Ethernet network supported by an IP-based Set-Top Box
 Entering the residential Cable TV / Home Entertainment market with Triple Play
of Voice, Video and Data services at affordable prices
Digital TV
EPG, Time Shifted TV, PVR
Video on Demand
Video Conferencing
VoIP
Email, SMS, Chat
Information and Community Portal
Broadband Internet
IP Telephony
Interactive TV/ Games
Home Security
25
Enterprise Broadband Business offering
 Metro ethernet network architecture providing bandwidth of 10/100 Mbps to
each customer by taking Fiber to the Building
One Partner Addressing all Info Communication needs – Fully Integrated and Seamless Solution driven
on the back of a Converged Network
26
Capex comparison: the competitive
advantage
USA RIC
Capex/ Sub ARPU Capex/ Sub ARPU
Wireless $200 $30
Capex per subscriber
New services
Actual Capex
Upgrading costs India
Legacy cost
27
ENAM Securities Pvt. Ltd.
ENAM Research
Analyst Sector Coverage E-mail Tel. (Direct)
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Priya Rohira IT Services priya@enam.com +91-22 5554 7611
Punit Srivastava Banking & Finance punit@enam.com +91-22 5554 7609
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ENAM Sales
Sales E-mail Mobile Tel. (Direct)
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Thank You
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