The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Strategic

Implications for India in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

MUKESH
Registration No. : JMI2024004329PH1
Roll No. :R1302510
S L No. : 126

Research Proposal Submitted to

Mmaj Academy Of International
Studies
Jamia Millia Islamia
Introduction

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021 marked a turning point in the
region’s geopolitics, culminating in the Taliban’s rapid return to power. This resurgence
has redefined South Asia’s security dynamics, particularly for India and Pakistan. The
Taliban’s presence strengthens Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, while exacerbating
instability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a region historically used by Pakistan as a base
for proxy activities. This geopolitical shift presents India with multifaceted challenges,
including increased cross-border militancy, reduced leverage in Afghanistan, and
diminished regional stability.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa holds strategic importance due to its location, bordering both
Afghanistan and areas used by militant groups targeting India. The Taliban’s ideological
influence, combined with Pakistan’s historical support for militant activities in KP,
creates a volatile environment with implications for India’s national security and
regional strategy. This research investigates these developments, analyzing how the
Taliban’s rise impacts India through the lens of KP and the broader South Asian
security framework.

Literature Review

This study draws on a wide range of academic literature to contextualize and analyze
the Taliban’s resurgence, the security dynamics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and India’s
strategic responses.

Key Themes in the Literature

1. The Taliban’s History and Rise:

• “Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia” by

Ahmed Rashid offers a comprehensive history of the Taliban, their ideological
evolution, and regional implications.

• “Ghost Wars” by Steve Coll examines U.S. involvement in Afghanistan

and the roots of the Taliban’s resurgence.

• “The Return of the Taliban: Afghanistan After the Americans Left” by

Hassan Abbas explores the factors behind their resurgence post-2021.

2. Pakistan’s Role in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa:

• “FATA: A Most Dangerous Place” by Imtiaz Gul discusses the

geopolitical and security challenges of KP and its use as a sanctuary for militants.
 • “Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military” by Hussain Haqqani provides
insights into Pakistan’s military strategy and its nexus with militant groups operating in
KP.

3. India’s Geopolitical Stakes in Afghanistan and KP:

• “The Great Game in Afghanistan: Raj to Cold War” by Jonathan L. Lee

highlights the historical rivalry over Afghanistan and its spillover effects on India.

• “India in South Asia: Domestic Identity Politics and Foreign Policy from
Nehru to the BJP” by Subrata K. Mitra examines India’s evolving foreign policy
strategies.

4. Regional Security and Strategic Implications:

• “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” by John Mearsheimer provides a

realist perspective on state behavior and security competition in an anarchic system.

• “Security Communities in South Asia” by Emanuel Adler and Michael

Barnett applies regional security complex theory to South Asia.

Research Gap

Existing literature examines the Taliban’s rise and its regional implications, but little
attention has been paid to its specific impact on KP’s security dynamics and India’s
strategic challenges. This research fills this gap by focusing on the trilateral interplay
among the Taliban, KP, and India.

Statement of the Problem

The return of the Taliban to power has created a favorable environment for Pakistan to
consolidate its influence in Afghanistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. For India, this
development intensifies regional security threats:

1. The Taliban’s ideological and logistical support enhances militant

activities in KP, which often spill over into India.

2. Pakistan’s increased leverage in KP undermines India’s efforts to counter

cross-border terrorism.

3. India faces a strategic vacuum in Afghanistan due to the loss of its allies
in Kabul.
The core problem lies in understanding how the Taliban’s rise affects India’s strategic
positioning in South Asia, particularly concerning Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and how India
should respond to these evolving challenges.

Theoretical Framework

This research adopts a realist theoretical framework, emphasizing the role of power and
security in international relations.

1. Offensive Realism (John Mearsheimer): Explains Pakistan’s strategy of

leveraging KP as a buffer zone and a base for proxies to counterbalance India’s
influence.

2. Defensive Realism: Analyzes India’s attempts to maintain regional

stability while countering threats emanating from KP.

3. Regional Security Complex Theory (Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver):

• Highlights the interdependence of security dynamics in Afghanistan,

Pakistan, and India.

• Explains how instability in one state (Afghanistan) affects its neighbors,

particularly in terms of cross-border militancy.

Research Objectives

1. To explore the geopolitical consequences of the Taliban’s resurgence on

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

2. To analyze the Taliban’s influence on militant activities in KP and their

spillover effects on India.

3. To evaluate Pakistan’s strategies in KP and their alignment with its

broader foreign policy objectives.

4. To assess India’s foreign policy challenges in the face of the Taliban’s rise
and Pakistan’s evolving policies in KP.

5. To provide policy recommendations for India to mitigate emerging threats

from KP and Afghanistan.
Research Questions

1. How does the Taliban’s resurgence influence the security dynamics in

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

2. What role does Pakistan play in shaping the post-Taliban security

landscape in KP?

3. How has the Taliban’s rise impacted India’s strategic and security
interests in South Asia?

4. What adjustments are necessary in India’s foreign policy to address the

threats arising from KP?

5. How do the actions of the Taliban and Pakistan align with or challenge the
principles of regional stability?

Hypothesis

“The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan provides India with strategic

opportunities by undermining Pakistan’s control over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reducing
the influence of anti-India militant groups in the region, and creating a platform for
India to reposition itself as a stabilizing force in South Asia.”

Key Assumptions and Variables

1. Independent Variable: The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

• The Taliban’s primary focus on domestic governance and consolidating

power within Afghanistan weakens their direct support for militancy in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

• The Taliban’s strained relationship with Pakistan due to geopolitical

interests, such as disputes over the Durand Line, creates fractures in Pakistan’s control
over KP.

2. Dependent Variable: India’s strategic advantages.

• The weakening of Pakistan’s influence in KP reduces cross-border

militancy targeting India.
 • A shift in regional power dynamics allows India to strengthen its ties with
neighboring countries like Iran and Central Asian states to counterbalance Pakistan and
China.

3. Mediating Variables:

• The Taliban’s foreign policy orientation: If the Taliban prioritize domestic

governance and seek legitimacy internationally, their alignment with Pakistan’s militant
agenda could diminish.

• Internal instability in KP: Friction between Pakistan’s state apparatus and

Taliban-backed elements in KP weakens Pakistan’s internal security.

4. Intervening Variables:

• External actors such as the U.S., Russia, and China influencing Taliban
policies and their stance towards militancy.

• India’s proactive foreign policy engagement in the region, including

strengthening economic and cultural ties with Afghanistan’s new leadership.

Detailed Explanation of the Hypothesis

1. Weakening Pakistan’s Leverage Over KP:

• The Taliban’s rise complicates Pakistan’s control over Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa. Historically, Pakistan has relied on the Afghan Taliban for strategic
depth, but the Taliban’s growing assertiveness (e.g., rejecting the Durand Line as an
official border) has created tensions between the two.

• A more autonomous Taliban government reduces Pakistan’s ability to use

KP as a launchpad for anti-India militant activities, weakening groups like Jaish-e-
Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

2. Taliban’s Focus on Governance Over Militancy:

• The Taliban’s priority to stabilize Afghanistan internally and seek

international recognition diminishes their appetite for cross-border proxy wars. This
shift reduces the ideological and logistical support for militancy in KP and Jammu and
Kashmir.

• By diverting Pakistan’s attention to internal challenges in KP and

Afghanistan, India benefits from a decreased focus on destabilizing activities targeting
its borders.

3. Emerging Regional Opportunities for India:

 • The Taliban’s independence from Pakistan presents India with an
opportunity to engage diplomatically with the Taliban government, focusing on shared
interests such as trade, regional connectivity, and counterterrorism.

• India can capitalize on Afghanistan’s need for infrastructure development,

education, and health services, countering Pakistan’s narrative and influence in the
region.

• India’s relationships with other regional players like Iran and Central
Asian countries strengthen as the Taliban’s rise challenges Pakistan’s strategic
monopoly in KP.

4. Impact on Pakistan’s Internal Stability:

• The Taliban’s rise could embolden Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and

other militant groups in KP to challenge Pakistan’s state authority, creating internal
security issues.

• As Pakistan faces increased instability within its borders, its ability to

sponsor cross-border terrorism against India diminishes, offering India a period of
strategic respite.

Alternate Hypothesis

“The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan may initially provide advantages to

India, but their potential alignment with Pakistan’s strategic goals in the long term could
reignite cross-border militancy and intensify security challenges for India.”

This alternate hypothesis considers the possibility of a future rapprochement between

Pakistan and the Taliban, which could negate India’s initial advantages.

Implications of the Hypothesis

1. For India’s Foreign Policy:

• India should adopt a pragmatic approach by engaging with the Taliban

diplomatically, ensuring that its economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan are
safeguarded.

• Enhanced regional partnerships, particularly with Iran and Central Asian

nations, can help India create a buffer against any resurgence of militancy in KP.

2. For Pakistan’s Security:

• Increased friction with the Taliban over KP and the Durand Line weakens
Pakistan’s internal stability and control over the region.
 • Reduced cooperation with the Taliban hampers Pakistan’s ability to use
KP as a proxy battlefield against India.

3. For Regional Stability:

• If India capitalizes on this shift effectively, it can emerge as a stabilizing

force in South Asia, countering Pakistan’s narrative and fostering regional cooperation.

Research Methodology

Research Design

This study employs a qualitative research approach, combining descriptive, analytical,

and case study methods to explore the strategic implications for India.

Data Collection

1. Primary Sources:

• Interviews with regional security analysts, policymakers, and academics.

• Fieldwork in South Asia (if feasible) to gather on-ground insights.

2. Secondary Sources:

• Scholarly books, peer-reviewed journals, think-tank publications, and

official government reports.

• Media articles and reports on recent developments in KP and Afghanistan.

Case Studies

1. The Taliban’s resurgence and its impact on KP.

2. India’s investment in Afghanistan (e.g., the Chabahar Port project) and its
strategic fallout.

3. Pakistan’s policies in KP and their impact on regional security.

Comparative Analysis

Examining India’s and Pakistan’s strategies toward KP and Afghanistan to identify key
differences and points of conflict.

Data Analysis

• Thematic analysis to identify trends in militancy, foreign policy shifts, and

regional security interactions.

• Application of the theoretical framework to contextualize findings within

broader international relations theories.

Conclusion

This research aims to critically analyze the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan and its
strategic implications for India, specifically focusing on the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
region. Afghanistan’s evolving political landscape, marked by the Taliban’s resurgence,
has altered regional power dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for
India’s strategic interests.

India’s stakes in the region span security concerns, economic interests, and geopolitical
influence. The Taliban’s control has raised fears of increased militancy, which could
exacerbate cross-border terrorism and destabilize India’s northern frontiers.
Simultaneously, the changing dynamics in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with its proximity to
Pakistan’s tribal areas, pose risks for India’s security apparatus while highlighting the
region’s importance in India’s counterterrorism and diplomatic strategies.