United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

October 11, 2024

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Brazil Continues to Dominate Growth in Global Chicken Meat Exports in 2025

Following 2 years of relatively stagnant trade, world chicken meat exports are forecast to rise 2 percent in 2025 to
reach a record 13.8 million tons. While this growth is supported by several major suppliers, Brazil expansion
buoys a large portion due to its expected record level shipments. The 2025 forecast follows the recent trend
(since the COVID pandemic) by which Brazil share of world trade continues to increase largely at the expense of
the United States and the EU.

Market Shares of Global Trade

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (F) 2025 (F)
Brazil 30% 30% 32% 33% 35% 36% 36%
U.S. 25% 26% 25% 26% 25% 23% 22%
EU 17% 15% 14% 13% 12% 13% 13%
Thailand 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9%
Other 21% 22% 22% 22% 20% 20% 20%

Various Factors Drive Expansion Rates

There is not one predominant factor that drives Brazil exports to climb to a record level. Expansion is propelled by
a combination of its disease-free status, export orientation and product offering, as well as competitive pricing.
Many of these factors also support increased Thailand exports which are expected to reach record levels.

• Disease-Related Restrictions
Brazil continues to maintain its status as free from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) as outbreaks
have been limited to wild birds and backyard flocks, with no cases in commercial operations. As a result,
there has been no impact on production or trade restrictions imposed by key markets. Similarly, Thailand has
not experienced a case of commercial HPAI since 2009. While recent outbreaks of HPAI in commercial

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

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 operations in the United States and the EU have had minimal impacts on production, lingering HPAI-related
trade restrictions continue to constrain shipments to several markets.
In July 2024, Brazil confirmed an outbreak of Newcastle disease (NCD) in a commercial operation in Rio
Grande do Sul (RGS) – its first case since 2006 (backyard case). The impact on production was negligible and
trade restrictions were largely resolved within 1 month. Lingering restrictions may limit exports from Rio
Grande do Sol but do not have an impact on total Brazil shipments as exporters will source from states with
eligible supplies. Rio Grande do Sol accounts for approximately 11 percent of Brazil chicken meat
production.

Producing to Export: Orientation and Product Offering

Brazil and Thailand direct a greater portion of production to exports compared to the United States and the
EU. Thus, Brazil and Thailand are producing for export rather than primarily for their domestic markets. Export
orientation is only feasible if a country can offer the range of products demanded by foreign markets. Several
key global markets import a broad variety of products such as breast meat, whole birds, deboned meat,
prepared products, etc. Thus, growth in U.S. shipments is generally limited as domestic demand for breast
meat constrains the range of products for export. Nearly 60 percent of U.S. broiler meat exports in 2023 were
frozen leg and leg quarters, generally bone-in. Similarly, specific requirements by several key markets such
as feed use (vegetarian) and religious-based slaughter are also challenging for the domestically orientated
U.S. industry to fulfill.

Exports as a Percent of Production

Country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 (F) 2025 (F)
Brazil 29 28 29 31 32 33 33
EU 20 18 17 16 15 16 16
Thailand 29 28 28 31 32 33 33
U.S. 16 17 16 16 16 14 14

Costs of Production
As a major producer of both corn and soybean meal, Brazil has a competitive advantage when producing
chicken meat due to lower feed costs (Feed accounts for two-thirds of Brazil production costs). The United
States also has ample feed supplies and competitive feed prices, but feed costs are higher than those of
Brazil. In addition, labor costs in Brazil are significantly lower compared to the United States. Competitive
labor costs enable the shipment of products such as de-boned meat.

Brazil to Capture Key Import Demand Growth in 2025

Brazil exports are forecast to increase 100,000 tons (2 percent) in 2025 compared to only 40,000 tons (1 percent)
for the United States. The greatest increases in imports are expected for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the
United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom – all of which are markets that Brazil services and can strongly
compete against other potential suppliers on price and product offering. These top growth import markets in
2025, except Mexico, are not significant U.S. markets which constrains U.S. expansion. In addition, Brazil is
expected to continue to erode U.S. market share in several of its key markets also due to price-competitiveness
and greater product offerings.

Additional and detailed information about the Brazil chicken meat production and trade forecast is available in
the USDA FAS GAIN Report: Brazil: Poultry and Products Annual.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 October 2024
Global Market Analysis
 Table of Contents

Beef and Veal

Overview …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
Beef and Veal Summary Tables..…………………………………………………………………… 5
Cattle Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………. 7

Pork
Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9
Pork Summary Tables…………………………………………………………………………………….
10
Swine Summary Tables………………………………………………………………………………….
12

Chicken Meat
Overview …………………………….…………………………………………………………………….. 14
Chicken Meat Summary Tables …………………………………………………………………….. 15

Notes to Readers…………………………………………………………………………………… 17

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal

Global production in 2025 is forecast down 1 percent to 60.9 million tons as declines in Brazil,
the EU, and the United States more than offset increases in Argentina, Australia, India, and Mexico.
Australia production is expected to rise 2 percent to a record 2.6 million tons as increased global
demand, particularly from the United States, supports higher slaughter. Carcass weights are
expected to decline as female cattle slaughter increases to meet export demands. Increased
Argentina production is driven by higher international demand and newly implemented domestic
policies, which seek to incentivize shipments by reducing export taxes on certain beef products.
Production in Brazil is forecast to decline 1 percent to 11.8 million tons as herd contraction
continues for a second consecutive year. EU production is expected to decline 2 percent as the
combination of economic headwinds and an uncertain regulatory environment continues to
disincentivize investment in an already constrained cattle sector.

Global exports in 2025 are forecast virtually unchanged to 12.9 million tons as lower exports
from Canada, the EU, and the United States offset greater shipments from Argentina, Australia, and
India. Excluding the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 1 percent. Brazil and
Australia, the world’s two leading exporters, will capture increased market share at the expense of
the United States and the EU, where beef production is expected to decline. Australia exports are
expected to rise 2 percent to a record 1.9 million tons as tight U.S. supplies and lower production
will increase the demand for beef imports, of which Australia is a significant supplier. Global
demand in 2025 is also supported by a 1-percent increase in China imports as well as small gains
by South Korea, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. beef production is forecast down 4 percent on tighter cattle
inventories. The decline in production, especially lean processing beef, coupled with ample
exportable supplies in key markets – such as Argentina, Australia, and Brazil – will spur import
growth. Imports are forecast to rise 1 percent to a record of 2.0 million tons. Exports are forecast 12
percent lower to 1.2 million tons on tight domestic supplies and competition from Australia,
particularly in East Asia.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Production
Brazil 9,975 9,750 10,350 10,950 11,850 11,750
China 6,720 6,980 7,180 7,530 7,800 7,780
European Union 6,903 6,883 6,722 6,461 6,600 6,500
India 3,760 4,195 4,350 4,470 4,565 4,635
Argentina 3,170 3,000 3,140 3,280 3,100 3,175
Australia 2,123 1,895 1,878 2,224 2,555 2,615
Mexico 2,079 2,129 2,177 2,215 2,260 2,305
Russia 1,378 1,380 1,350 1,365 1,400 1,385
Canada 1,314 1,385 1,412 1,326 1,315 1,310
South Africa 1,008 996 979 999 1,008 1,028
Others 6,801 7,008 6,900 6,855 6,626 6,601
Total Foreign 45,231 45,601 46,438 47,675 49,079 49,084
United States 12,389 12,734 12,890 12,286 12,298 11,811
Total 57,620 58,335 59,328 59,961 61,377 60,895
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 9,485 9,987 10,662 11,089 11,557 11,587
Brazil 7,486 7,492 7,524 8,108 8,330 8,210
European Union 6,539 6,529 6,468 6,200 6,260 6,195
India 2,476 2,798 2,908 2,918 2,990 2,990
Argentina 2,383 2,350 2,422 2,512 2,281 2,317
Mexico 1,898 1,938 1,945 2,080 2,210 2,220
Russia 1,708 1,628 1,597 1,592 1,652 1,636
Japan 1,295 1,263 1,228 1,227 1,229 1,217
United Kingdom 1,161 1,132 1,156 1,146 1,160 1,140
Canada 1,046 1,002 1,043 1,001 1,001 990
Others 8,041 8,091 7,835 7,814 7,922 8,000
Total Foreign 43,518 44,210 44,788 45,687 46,592 46,502
United States 12,531 12,717 12,799 12,637 12,959 12,657
Total 56,049 56,927 57,587 58,324 59,551 59,159

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month
beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Beef and Veal Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Imports
China 2,781 3,024 3,502 3,577 3,775 3,825
Japan 832 807 777 702 725 720
Korea, South 549 588 595 595 570 575
United Kingdom 399 393 400 384 400 415
European Union 350 321 372 363 370 355
Chile 342 464 350 356 355 350
Russia 363 298 295 275 300 295
Saudi Arabia 148 170 176 220 260 265
Canada 249 212 214 241 270 255
Egypt 230 300 270 245 245 250
Others 1,926 1,841 1,740 1,675 1,867 1,868
Total Foreign 8,169 8,418 8,691 8,633 9,137 9,173
United States 1,515 1,517 1,538 1,690 1,988 2,007
Total 9,684 9,935 10,229 10,323 11,125 11,180
none
Total Exports
Brazil 2,539 2,320 2,898 2,897 3,575 3,600
Australia 1,473 1,291 1,238 1,560 1,865 1,900
India 1,284 1,397 1,442 1,552 1,575 1,645
Argentina 801 658 725 771 820 860
New Zealand 634 685 643 682 675 685
European Union 714 675 626 624 710 660
Canada 511 593 583 572 585 580
Uruguay 411 556 513 483 500 485
Paraguay 371 434 462 441 470 450
Mexico 343 363 398 338 290 310
Others 788 822 783 742 567 590
Total Foreign 9,869 9,794 10,311 10,662 11,632 11,765
United States 1,338 1,555 1,608 1,378 1,340 1,179
Total 11,207 11,349 11,919 12,040 12,972 12,944

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month
beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Cattle Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
India 303,200 305,500 306,700 307,400 307,420 307,490
Brazil 190,026 193,195 193,780 194,365 192,572 186,875
China 91,383 95,621 98,172 102,160 105,090 104,000
European Union 77,161 76,551 75,705 74,808 73,745 72,300
Argentina 54,461 53,540 53,400 54,100 52,800 53,200
Australia 23,655 23,021 23,944 25,800 27,071 27,020
Mexico 16,900 17,000 17,314 17,763 17,840 17,735
Russia 18,022 17,953 17,798 17,435 17,160 16,650
Uruguay 11,436 11,966 11,646 11,795 11,366 11,805
Canada 11,540 11,515 11,515 11,245 11,025 10,935
Others 38,004 38,040 38,309 38,055 29,097 28,681
Total Foreign 835,788 843,902 848,283 854,926 845,186 836,691
United States 93,768 93,587 91,789 88,841 87,157 86,000
Total 929,556 937,489 940,072 943,767 932,343 922,691
none
Production (Calf Crop)
India 69,400 69,800 70,000 70,200 70,580 71,030
China 51,900 50,525 53,240 54,138 52,500 52,000
Brazil 49,150 46,550 47,836 48,000 47,500 47,800
European Union 25,280 25,050 24,650 23,720 23,480 23,300
Argentina 14,300 14,460 15,100 14,700 14,800 14,800
Australia 8,300 8,200 8,760 9,500 9,500 10,000
Mexico 8,000 8,150 8,350 8,475 8,600 8,700
Russia 6,660 6,600 6,525 6,475 6,350 6,300
New Zealand 5,135 5,460 5,159 5,120 5,100 5,000
Canada 4,435 4,482 4,427 4,341 4,310 4,280
Others 12,404 11,974 11,871 11,079 9,680 9,305
Total Foreign 254,964 251,251 255,918 255,748 252,400 252,515
United States 35,501 35,131 34,440 33,593 32,800 32,700
Total 290,465 286,382 290,358 289,341 285,200 285,215

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year
was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Cattle Trade - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Imports
Canada 277 402 317 294 300 250
China 266 361 350 148 85 80
United Kingdom 59 18 33 33 35 35
Mexico 37 101 112 57 35 30
Russia 70 56 30 15 6 6
Others 341 233 224 186 9 7
Total Foreign 1,050 1,171 1,066 733 470 408
United States 2,114 1,775 1,628 1,981 2,175 2,050
Total 3,164 2,946 2,694 2,714 2,645 2,458
none
Total Exports
Mexico 1,485 1,037 965 1,295 1,460 1,390
Australia 1,109 788 593 626 775 825
European Union 1,122 1,014 1,077 967 810 800
Canada 675 645 754 734 765 685
Brazil 329 62 195 582 800 515
Others 372 485 307 479 387 422
Total Foreign 5,092 4,031 3,891 4,683 4,997 4,637
United States 321 511 424 352 340 250
Total 5,413 4,542 4,315 5,035 5,337 4,887

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year
was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Pork
Global production in 2025 is forecast down 1 percent to 115.1 million tons as lower production in China
and the European Union more than offsets production growth in the United States, Vietnam, and Brazil.
Vietnam pork production is forecast 3 percent higher to 3.8 million tons on expected herd expansion as the
swine sector consolidates and improves management of African swine fever (ASF). Brazil production is
forecast 1 percent higher to 4.6 million tons on strong export demand and easing input costs. Despite
improved sector profitability in 2024, China pork production is forecast 2 percent lower in 2025 to 55.5
million tons. Reduced sow inventories in 2024 are expected to yield fewer animals available for slaughter in
2025. Additionally, China consumer demand for pork is expected to remain weak given continued economic
uncertainty and the growing consumer preference for poultry. European Union production is forecast 2
percent lower to 20.9 million tons due to expected lower hog prices.

Global exports are forecast to increase 1 percent to 10.4 million tons in 2025 as export growth from the
United States and Canada offsets lower exports from the EU. Canada exports are forecast 1 percent higher
to 1.5 million tons with stable demand from the United States and continued growth to several Asian
markets, including Japan and South Korea. EU exports are forecast 2 percent lower to 2.95 million tons given
expected lower available supplies for export and ongoing ASF-related trade restrictions.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is forecast 2 percent higher in 2025 to 12.9 million tons on
growth in slaughter and pigs per litter. Improved sector profitability in 2024 and reduced feed costs are
expected to continue to support heavier hog weights. U.S. exports are forecast to increase 3 percent in 2025
to 3.4 million tons given ample domestic supplies and strong export price competitiveness. Despite
increased competition from Brazil, Mexico will remain a core market for U.S. exports. Additionally, U.S.
exports are expected gain market share from the EU in South Korea and Australia.

Top Pork Importers: Mexico and Japan

Expected Larger than China
5
4.5
4
Million MT CWE

3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 (F) 2025 (F)

Mexico Japan China

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 October 2024
Global Market Analysis
 Pork Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Production
China 36,340 47,500 55,410 57,940 56,750 55,500
European Union 23,219 23,615 22,277 20,829 21,250 20,900
Brazil 4,125 4,365 4,350 4,450 4,495 4,550
Russia 3,611 3,700 3,910 4,000 4,140 4,280
Vietnam 2,930 3,112 3,313 3,549 3,655 3,765
Canada 2,115 2,101 2,078 2,106 2,085 2,125
Mexico 1,451 1,484 1,530 1,557 1,590 1,615
Korea, South 1,403 1,407 1,419 1,435 1,450 1,450
Japan 1,306 1,318 1,293 1,293 1,320 1,325
Philippines 1,115 1,000 1,020 1,050 1,040 1,060
Others 5,600 5,790 5,765 5,701 5,559 5,619
Total Foreign 83,215 95,392 102,365 103,910 103,334 102,189
United States 12,845 12,560 12,252 12,391 12,684 12,941
Total 96,060 107,952 114,617 116,301 116,018 115,130
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 41,517 51,724 57,434 59,741 57,952 56,800
European Union 18,203 18,720 18,220 17,813 18,360 18,060
Russia 3,468 3,558 3,758 3,815 3,926 4,048
Vietnam 3,068 3,276 3,413 3,651 3,743 3,865
Brazil 2,949 3,047 3,033 3,038 3,012 3,067
Mexico 2,052 2,320 2,544 2,653 2,775 2,810
Japan 2,732 2,760 2,765 2,739 2,750 2,755
Korea, South 1,976 1,997 2,072 2,109 2,212 2,252
Philippines 1,268 1,430 1,545 1,522 1,573 1,579
United Kingdom 1,430 1,506 1,559 1,492 1,525 1,530
Others 6,528 6,968 7,007 7,059 6,765 6,882
Total Foreign 85,191 97,306 103,350 105,632 104,593 103,648
United States 10,034 9,919 9,957 9,829 9,991 10,134
Total 95,225 107,225 113,307 115,461 114,584 113,782

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Pork Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Imports
Mexico 945 1,155 1,299 1,354 1,425 1,435
Japan 1,412 1,420 1,523 1,431 1,430 1,430
China 5,277 4,328 2,125 1,897 1,300 1,400
Korea, South 554 570 713 675 785 795
United Kingdom 792 727 779 757 755 745
Philippines 168 462 561 448 505 510
Hong Kong 378 364 251 259 265 280
Canada 274 263 234 261 245 240
Australia 201 210 241 195 220 225
Colombia 89 151 165 160 190 195
Others 1,113 1,306 1,295 1,246 1,168 1,224
Total Foreign 11,203 10,956 9,186 8,683 8,288 8,479
United States 410 535 610 518 539 547
Total 11,613 11,491 9,796 9,201 8,827 9,026
none
Total Exports
European Union 5,176 4,993 4,179 3,125 3,000 2,950
Brazil 1,178 1,321 1,319 1,414 1,485 1,485
Canada 1,546 1,483 1,416 1,327 1,440 1,450
Chile 295 268 230 263 265 268
Mexico 344 319 285 258 240 240
Russia 156 158 170 200 220 240
United Kingdom 346 256 261 192 185 185
China 100 104 101 96 98 100
Australia 34 38 35 46 50 55
Singapore 8 15 18 15 23 23
Others 85 89 63 61 63 68
Total Foreign 9,268 9,044 8,077 6,997 7,069 7,064
United States 3,302 3,186 2,878 3,095 3,244 3,354
Total 12,570 12,230 10,955 10,092 10,313 10,418

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Swine Stocks - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Beginning Stocks
China 310,410 406,500 449,220 452,560 434,220 405,000
European Union 143,146 145,911 141,681 134,410 132,856 132,700
Brazil 37,850 37,350 35,688 34,250 33,150 34,080
Russia 25,048 25,744 26,200 26,000 27,500 29,000
Canada 14,065 14,120 14,170 13,900 13,975 14,180
Mexico 11,050 11,500 11,775 12,250 12,700 12,895
Korea, South 11,280 11,078 11,217 11,124 11,089 10,954
Japan 9,090 9,290 8,949 8,956 8,798 8,900
Ukraine 5,842 5,986 5,718 5,058 5,204 5,160
United Kingdom 4,741 4,828 5,100 4,650 4,350 4,250
Total Foreign 572,522 672,307 709,718 703,158 683,842 657,119
United States 77,323 77,022 74,606 74,956 75,461 77,625
Total 649,845 749,329 784,324 778,114 759,303 734,744
none
Production (Pig Crop)
China 565,000 655,000 712,510 717,249 695,000 700,000
European Union 256,100 254,200 238,760 226,950 231,000 225,000
Russia 55,880 57,300 59,000 60,200 61,825 63,400
Brazil 43,525 44,515 44,850 45,750 48,050 48,100
Canada 29,550 30,211 29,496 30,241 29,750 29,600
Mexico 20,291 20,810 21,700 22,075 22,175 22,400
Korea, South 19,973 20,473 20,389 19,831 19,791 20,130
Japan 17,230 17,000 16,795 16,740 16,800 16,850
United Kingdom 11,250 11,575 10,850 9,650 10,050 10,400
Ukraine 8,569 8,550 8,013 8,375 8,700 8,400
Total Foreign 1,027,368 1,119,634 1,162,363 1,157,061 1,143,141 1,144,280
United States 140,248 133,466 133,602 135,784 137,765 139,995
Total 1,167,616 1,253,100 1,295,965 1,292,845 1,280,906 1,284,275

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Swine Trade - Top Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Imports
United Kingdom 485 433 418 383 380 380
European Union 19 27 24 13 12 12
Mexico 25 9 6 10 12 12
China 29 23 5 8 8 8
Ukraine 11 7 2 6 7 7
Russia 21 11 5 4 4 4
Canada 6 4 4 3 3 3
Brazil 2 2 2 6 2 2
Japan 3 1 1 1 2 2
Korea, South 1 2 2 4 2 2
Total Foreign 602 519 469 438 432 432
United States 5,293 6,663 6,486 6,745 6,771 6,565
Total 5,895 7,182 6,955 7,183 7,203 6,997
none
Total Exports
Canada 5,311 6,673 6,487 6,750 6,780 6,575
European Union 515 964 1,012 975 1,530 1,350
China 718 881 1,066 1,120 1,175 1,275
Russia 55 44 106 47 42 40
United Kingdom 3 2 6 7 5 5
Brazil 3 2 3 3 3 3
Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0
Korea, South 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ukraine 4 19 1 0 0 0
Total Foreign 6,609 8,585 8,681 8,902 9,535 9,248
United States 56 52 44 68 68 60
Total 6,665 8,637 8,725 8,970 9,603 9,308

Notes: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Obustgrowth
Chicken Meat
Global production is forecast nearly 2 percent higher in 2025 to a record 104.9 million tons. Production
gains are forecast for most countries with the largest increases expected for China, the United States,
Turkey, the EU, Brazil, and Mexico. Expansion is supported by a modest improvement in feed prices and on
consumer demand spurred by economic growth. A significant production increase in China will enable its
return to being the world’s largest producer. China demand will be generated primarily from white broilers
as producers respond to demand drivers and as consumers may substitute broiler meat in place of pork.
China yellow broiler production, mainly sold in wet markets, will remain stagnant. Turkish production is
forecast to rise on stable domestic demand and increased shipments as government exports restrictions
are lifted. Brazil’s record high forecast is supported by strong foreign demand and lower expected
production costs.

Global exports are forecast 2 percent higher in 2025 to a record 13.8 million tons following relatively
stagnant trade in 2023 and 2024. Economic growth is expected to drive moderate consumption growth as
chicken remains a lower-cost animal protein which appeals to middle-income consumers. While all major
exporters (Brazil, the United States, the EU, and Thailand) will post gains, Brazil will capture the largest share
of growth as it is able to service and be price-competitive in the largest growth markets (Mexico, Saudi
Arabia, Singapore, the UAE, and the UK). Reductions in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related
restrictions will support increased EU exports to various markets although the UK will remain the largest
market for the EU. Thailand exports will be supported by growth in cooked chicken, particularly to the EU,
Japan, and the UK.

U.S. production and exports: U.S. production is expected to rise 2 percent to a record 21.7 million tons in
2025 as feed prices continue modest declines along with the assumption of no significant disease
outbreaks. Increased production will support a slight boost in exports which are forecast 1 percent higher to
3.1 million tons on growth in shipments to Mexico and Canada. However, U.S. shipments to smaller, non-
traditional, and price-sensitive markets may decline on increased competition from Brazil. Despite the
increase, U.S. export volumes will continue to remain below pre-HPAI levels.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Chicken Meat Production - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Production
China 14,600 14,700 14,300 14,800 15,000 15,300
Brazil 13,880 14,500 14,465 14,900 15,000 15,100
European Union 11,030 10,840 10,880 11,084 11,385 11,530
Russia 4,680 4,600 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,850
Mexico 3,596 3,665 3,763 3,888 3,985 4,085
Thailand 3,250 3,220 3,300 3,450 3,490 3,580
Turkey 2,136 2,246 2,418 2,330 2,400 2,600
Argentina 2,215 2,290 2,319 2,436 2,485 2,545
Colombia 1,685 1,773 1,893 1,890 1,920 1,950
United Kingdom 1,779 1,841 1,847 1,858 1,900 1,920
Others 20,641 21,272 21,221 21,310 19,297 19,745
Total Foreign 79,492 80,947 81,206 82,746 81,662 83,205
United States 20,255 20,391 20,993 21,082 21,384 21,726
Total 99,747 101,338 102,199 103,828 103,046 104,931
none
Total Dom. Consumption
China 15,211 15,031 14,401 15,002 14,830 15,115
European Union 9,651 9,648 9,881 10,157 10,325 10,420
Brazil 10,010 10,279 10,023 10,135 10,105 10,105
Mexico 4,431 4,575 4,666 4,890 4,951 5,070
Russia 4,688 4,632 4,750 4,812 4,850 4,895
Japan 2,757 2,848 2,877 2,845 2,940 2,985
United Kingdom 2,068 2,173 2,484 2,569 2,610 2,640
Thailand 2,323 2,279 2,309 2,332 2,360 2,385
Argentina 2,025 2,116 2,138 2,298 2,320 2,370
Turkey 1,671 1,687 1,772 1,871 2,065 2,250
Others 25,550 26,434 26,716 26,726 24,823 25,331
Total Foreign 80,385 81,702 82,017 83,637 82,179 83,566
United States 16,994 17,170 17,676 17,866 18,412 18,700
Total 97,379 98,872 99,693 101,503 100,591 102,266

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year
was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Chicken Meat Trade - Top Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Oct

none
Total Imports
Japan 1,005 1,077 1,101 1,063 1,130 1,140
Mexico 842 917 915 1,006 970 990
United Kingdom 732 689 903 935 965 980
European Union 660 647 703 722 720 700
Saudi Arabia 618 615 594 564 600 615
Iraq 468 388 486 529 550 550
China 999 788 633 756 510 495
Philippines 336 437 496 437 480 490
United Arab Emirates 358 384 356 375 385 400
Cuba 262 353 345 314 325 325
Others 4,349 4,441 4,481 4,453 4,361 4,396
Total Foreign 10,629 10,736 11,013 11,154 10,996 11,081
United States 66 72 83 61 69 75
Total 10,695 10,808 11,096 11,215 11,065 11,156
none
Total Exports
Brazil 3,875 4,226 4,447 4,767 4,900 5,000
European Union 2,039 1,839 1,702 1,649 1,780 1,810
Thailand 917 907 1,021 1,098 1,150 1,190
China 388 457 532 554 680 680
Ukraine 428 458 419 428 445 450
Turkey 465 559 646 459 335 350
United Kingdom 443 357 266 224 255 260
Russia 216 218 245 220 225 230
Argentina 196 183 194 144 170 180
Chile 136 133 144 105 135 140
Others 599 617 594 580 441 459
Total Foreign 9,702 9,954 10,210 10,228 10,516 10,749
United States 3,376 3,350 3,314 3,302 3,058 3,098
Total 13,078 13,304 13,524 13,530 13,574 13,847

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year
was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Notes to Readers
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the
current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Thank you to Shayle Shagam for his 25 years as USDA’s Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
Interagency Commodity Estimate Committee Chairperson. His wisdom, humor, insight and
guidance were appreciated and will be missed.

Discontinued Series:
The following PSDs are discontinued as of this publication.
Commodity/Attribute Series Ending Year Countries
Cattle 2023 Egypt

Beef 2023 Belarus

Pork 2023 Belarus

Chicken 2023 Belarus, Egypt, Jordan

Assumptions
Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of October 11, 2024,
and assumes their continuation.
Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal
announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is
specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by
these forecasts.

Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless
otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter
and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product
exported.
RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and
vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus,
entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys
may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without
need of further processing. Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of
poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for
cooking without need of further processing.
European Union: The term “European Union” means the countries involved in the previous
customs union, i.e., EU27+UK, through 2015. Starting with 2016 data, livestock and poultry PSDs
reflect EU27 and UK separately.

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 October 2024

Global Market Analysis
 Conversion Rates and HS Codes
BEEF AND VEAL
HS Code Description Conversion Rate
020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00
020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00
020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36
020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00
020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00
020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36
021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74
160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79
Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates
include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK
HS Code Description Conversion Rate
020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00
020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11
020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30
020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00
020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11
020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30
021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30
021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16
021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16
160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30
160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30
160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30
Chicken Meat Trade Codes: Fresh/Chilled (HS 020711 and HS 020713), Frozen (HS 020712 and HS
020714) and Processed (HS 160232). In general, chicken paws are excluded. Trade of “salted
poultry” (HS 021099) is included in EU and UK imports as well as the exports of selected countries.

PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources
• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the
USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

Contact Information
Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Staff Phone Number Email Portfolio
Christopher Lindholm (771) 221-5943 Christopher.Lindholm@usda.gov Cattle and Beef
Mason Grahame (202) 690-3331 Mason.Grahame@usda.gov Swine and Pork
Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 Claire.Mezoughem@usda.gov Chicken Meat

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 October 2024

Global Market Analysis