Media
Media
6*(=21'+(,'(10,/,(8
PDQDQGHQYLURQPHQW 1$7,21$/,167,787(2)38%/,&+($/7+$1'7+((19,5210(17
5,90UHSRUW
9DOLGDWLRQRI0LFURELRORJLFDO0HWKRGV
(QXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV
DFFRUGLQJWR,62 VHFRQGHGLWLRQ
606FKXOWHQ(%HQVFKRS1-'1DJHONHUNH
.$0RRLMPDQ
)HEUXDU\
7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIWKH'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDO
RIWKH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQWDQGRIWKH0HDVXUHPHQWVDQG
7HVWLQJ3URJUDPPHRIWKH(8 FRQWUDFWQXPEHU607&7 ZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRI
SURMHFWQR9 0*% YDOLGDWLRQRI,62(QXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXP
SHUIULQJHQVLQIRRGVDQGDQLPDOIHHGLQJVWXIIV
5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
$EVWUDFW
7KHPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVLQIRRGVDQGDQLPDOIHHGLQJ
VWXIIVDVGHVFULEHGLQ,62 ZDVYDOLGDWHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRID(XURSHDQSURMHFW$
FROODERUDWLYHVWXG\ZDVRUJDQLVHGZLWKWKHDLPRIDWWDLQLQJSUHFLVLRQLQWHUPVRI
UHSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 RIWKLVPHWKRG6HYHQWHHQODERUDWRULHVLQ(XURSHDQ
FRXQWULHVH[DPLQHGFKHHVHPHDWGULHGDQLPDOIHHGDQGDUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDODFFRUGLQJWRD
VWDQGDUGLVHGSURWRFRO$OOVDPSOHVZHUHDUWLILFLDOO\FRQWDPLQDWHGWRDFKLHYHWKHGHVLUHG
LQRFXODWLRQOHYHOV EODQNORZPHGLXPDQGKLJK DQGKRPRJHQHLW\7ZRWHFKQLTXHVXVLQJ
ODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP ,62 DQG ODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXPDQGPRWLOLW\QLWUDWH
PHGLXP RSWLRQDOPHWKRGLQ(1 ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKLVVWXG\IRUFRQILUPDWLRQRI
SUHVXPSWLYH&SHUIULQJHQV7KLVHQDEOHGGHWHFWLRQRISRVVLEOHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSHUIRUPDQFH
RIWKHWZRFRQILUPDWLRQPHWKRGV7KHSUHFLVLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZHUHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJERWK
,62 DQGSU(1,62 5HSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 ZHUH
FDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKVDPSOHW\SHLQRFXODWLRQOHYHODQGFRQILUPDWLRQPHWKRGVHSDUDWHO\7KH
SUHFLVLRQGHSHQGHGRQWKHW\SHRIVDPSOHDQDO\VHG7KHEHVWSHUIRUPDQFHZDVIRXQGZKHQ
DQDO\VLQJWKH50V
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$EEUHYLDWLRQVDQGV\PEROV
&(1 (XURSHDQ&RPPLWWHHIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ
,62 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ
(1 (XURSHDQ6WDQGDUG
SU(1,62 GUDIW(XURSHDQDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUG
$)66$ $JHQFH)UDQoDLVHGH6pFXULWp6DQLWDLUHGHV$OLPHQWV
&(&$/$,7 &HQWUHG¶(WXGHHWGH&RQWUROHGHV$QDO\VHVHQ,QGXVWULH/DLWLHUH
0$))&6/ 0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)LVKHULHVDQG)RRGV&HQWUDO6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\
5,900*% 1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW0LFURELRORJLFDO
/DERUDWRU\IRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQ
623 6WDQGDUG2SHUDWLQJ3URFHGXUH
50 UHIHUHQFHPDWHULDO FDSVXOH
FIS FRORQ\IRUPLQJSDUWLFOH
+&03 KLJKO\FRQWDPLQDWHGPLONSRZGHU
1&7& 1DWLRQDO&ROOHFWLRQRI7\SH&XOWXUHV
1&'2 1DWLRQDO&ROOHFWLRQRI'DLU\2UJDQLVPV5HDGLQJ(QJODQG
' 6 'XQFDQDQG6WURQJPHGLXP
)7* IOXLGWKLRJO\FROODWHPHGLXP
/* ODFWRVHJHODWLQPHGLXP
/6 ODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
01 PRWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXP
01 /* PRWLOLW\QLWUDWHDQGODFWRVHJHODWLQPHGLXP
056 GH0DQ5RJRVDDQG6KDUSDJDUEURWK
76& WU\SWRVHVXOILWHF\FORVHULQHDJDU
7UHSO LQGLFDWRUIRUWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQUHSOLFDWHFRXQWV
7GXSO LQGLFDWRUIRUWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQVDPSOHV
U UHSHDWDELOLW\YDOXH
5 UHSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXH
56' U UHSHDWDELOLW\YDOXHUHODWLYHWRFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHO
56' 5 UHSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXHUHODWLYHWRFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHO
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
&RQWHQWV
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
6XPPDU\
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0DWHULDOVDQGPHWKRGV
3UHSDUDWLRQRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
0HDWVDPSOHV
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
5HIHUHQFHPDWHULDO
+RPRJHQHLW\DQGVWDELOLW\RIWHVWPDWHULDOV
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
0HDWVDPSOHV
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
'HVLJQRIWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
'LVSDWFKRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
6WDQGDUG2SHUDWLQJ3URFHGXUH
'DWDDQDO\VLVWULDO
6FUHHQLQJWHVWUHVXOWV
3HUIRUPDQFHZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\
&RPSDULVRQRIFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
3UHFLVLRQGDWDIURPWULDO
5HVXOWVDQGGLVFXVVLRQ
+RPRJHQHLW\DQGVWDELOLW\RIWHVWPDWHULDOV
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
0HDWVDPSOHV
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
*HQHUDOUHVXOWVRIWKHWULDO
3DUWLFLSDQWV
'LVSDWFKRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
0HGLD
,QFXEDWLRQFRQGLWLRQVRIPHGLD
/DERUDWRU\WHPSHUDWXUH
8VHRISLSHWWHV
6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIWULDOGDWD
6FUHHQLQJGDWD
3HUIRUPDQFHZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\
&RPSDULVRQRIFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
3UHFLVLRQGDWDIURPWULDO
&RQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVWR,62&(1
3DUWLFLSDQWVDQGDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
5HIHUHQFHV
$SSHQGL[ 0DLOLQJOLVW
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ *HQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
$SSHQGL[ 7HVWUHSRUW
$SSHQGL[ 5HVXOWVFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
$SSHQGL[ 'XQFDQ¶VWHVWUHVXOWV
$SSHQGL[ 'HYLDWLQJWHVWUHVXOWV
$SSHQGL[ 6$6SURWRFRO
$SSHQGL[ 5HSHDWDELOLW\DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXHV
$SSHQGL[ 0HGLD
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
'HYDOLGDWLHYDQGHWHOOLQJYDQ&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVLQYRHGLQJVPLGGHOHQHQGLHUYRHGHUV
]RDOVEHVFKUHYHQLQ,62 LVXLWJHYRHUGLQKHW NDGHUSURJUDPPDYDQKHW
H
µ6WDQGDUGV0HDVXULQJDQG7HVWLQJSURMHFW¶YDQGH(XURSHVH8QLH 60 7SURMHFWQU607
&7 'HUHVXOWDWHQ]LMQEHGRHOGYRRUSXEOLFDWLHGRRU,62LQGH,62VWDQGDDUGHQGRRU
GH(XURSHVH8QLH &(1 LQGHFRUUHVSRQGHUHQGH&(1PHWKRGH(1
=HYHQWLHQODERUDWRULDXLW(XURSHVHODQGHQKHEEHQGHHOJHQRPHQDDQKHWULQJRQGHU]RHNGDW
ZHUGJHRUJDQLVHHUGRPGHSUHVWDWLHNHQPHUNHQYDQGH]HPHWKRGHWHEHSDOHQLQWHUPHQYDQ
KHUKDDOEDDUKHLG U HQUHSURGXFHHUEDDUKHLG 5 .DDVYOHHVHQJHGURRJGGLHUYRHGHUZHUGHQ
DOVYRHGLQJVPDWULFHVJHEUXLNW9RRUHONHPDWUL[ZHUGHQPRQVWHUVRQGHU]RFKWEOLQGH
GXSOLFDWHQYRRUHONYDQFRQFHQWUDWLHQLYHDXV EODQFRODDJPLGGHQKRRJ $OOHPRQVWHUV
]LMQNXQVWPDWLJEHVPHWRPGHJHZHQVWHQLYHDXVHQKRPRJHQLWHLWWHEHUHLNHQ'DDUQDDVW]LMQ
WZHHUHIHUHQWLHPDWHULDOHQ 50 LQKHWULQJRQGHU]RHNPHHJHQRPHQFDSVXOHVPHWPHONSRHGHU
GDWNXQVWPDWLJLVEHVPHWPHW&SHUIULQJHQV'HWHVWPDWHULDOHQ]LMQLQGULHODERUDWRULDEHUHLG
HQJHFRQWUROHHUGRSKRPRJHQLWHLWHQVWDELOLWHLWRPYDVWWHVWHOOHQGDWGHPDWHULDOHQJHVFKLNW
ZDUHQYRRUJHEUXLN'HPRQVWHUV]LMQPHWHHQNRHULHUVGLHQVWQDDUGHGHHOQHPHUVJHVWXXUG'H
PRQVWHUV]LMQJHDQDO\VHHUGYROJHQVHHQJHVWDQGDDUGLVHHUGSURWRFRO7ZHHPHWKRGHQYRRUGH
EHYHVWLJLQJYDQYHUGDFKWH&SHUIULQJHQVNRORQLHV]LMQLQGH]HVWXGLHPHHJHQRPHQRP
PRJHOLMNHYHUVFKLOOHQLQUHVXOWDDWWHEHSDOHQ ODFWRVHVXOILHWPHGLXP ]RDOVLQ,62
LVYRRUJHVFKUHYHQ HQ ODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXPEHZHHJOLMNKHLGVQLWUDDWPHGLXP
DOWHUQDWLHYHEHYHVWLJLQJLQ(1
'HSUHVWDWLHNHQPHUNHQ]LMQEHUHNHQGYROJHQV]RZHO,62 DOVYROJHQVSU(1,62
'HKHUKDDUEDDUKHLG U HQUHSURGXFHHUEDDUKHLG 5 ]LMQYRRUHONPRQVWHUW\SH
FRQFHQWUDWLHQLYHDXHQEHYHVWLJLQJVPHWKRGHDI]RQGHUOLMNEHUHNHQG
'HSUHFLVLHYDULHHUWSHUPRQVWHUW\SH+HWLVQLHWGXLGHOLMNRIGLWHHQJHYROJLVYDQGHPDWUL[
RIYDQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDQLHUHQYDQNXQVWPDWLJEHVPHWWHQYDQGHPRQVWHUV'HDQDO\VHYDQ
GH50VOHYHUGHGHEHVWHSUHVWDWLHNHQPHUNHQRS'HSUHFLVLHYDULHHUGHSHUEHVPHWWLQJVQLYHDX
%HLGHEHYHVWLJLQJVPHWKRGHQJDYHQYHUJHOLMNEDUHUHVXOWDWHQ
$DQ,62HQ&(1ZRUGWDDQEHYROHQRP
'HSUHVWDWLHNHQPHUNHQ]RDOVJHYRQGHQLQGLWULQJRQGHU]RHNHQEHUHNHQGYROJHQV
SU(1,62 RSWHQHPHQLQ,62 HQ(1
%HLGHPHWKRGHQYRRUGHEHYHVWLJLQJYDQ&SHUIULQJHQVGLHLQGLWULQJRQGHU]RHN]LMQ
JHWHVWRSWHQHPHQLQ,62 ZDDUELMGHNHX]HDDQGHJHEUXLNHUZRUGWJHODWHQ
ZHONHYDQGHWZHHPHWKRGHQWHKDQWHUHQ+LHUPHH]RXGHQ,62 HQ(1
ZRUGHQJHKDUPRQLVHHUG
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
6XPPDU\
7KHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHHQXPHUDWLRQPHWKRGIRU&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVLQIRRGVDQGDQLPDO
IHHGLQJVWXIIVDVGHVFULEHGLQ,62 KDVEHHQFDUULHGRXWLQWKH IUDPHZRUNRID
WK
6WDQGDUGV0HDVXUHPHQWDQG7HVWLQJSURMHFWRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ 60 7SURMHFWQR
607&7 5HVXOWVDUHLQWHQGHGIRUSXEOLFDWLRQE\WKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU
6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQLQWKH,62VWDQGDUGDQGIRUWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLWWHHIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ
&(1 LQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ&(1PHWKRG(1
6HYHQWHHQODERUDWRULHVLQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOWKDW
ZDVRUJDQLVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHSUHFLVLRQLQWHUPVRIUHSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 RI
WKLVPHWKRG&KHHVHPHDWDQGGULHGDQLPDOIHHGZHUHXVHGDVIRRGPDWULFHV)RUHDFKW\SHRI
IRRGVDPSOHVZHUHH[DPLQHGEOLQGGXSOLFDWHVDWHDFKRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQOHYHOV EODQN
ORZPHGLXPKLJK $OOVDPSOHVZHUHDUWLILFLDOO\FRQWDPLQDWHGWRDFKLHYHWKHGHVLUHG
LQRFXOXPOHYHOVDQGKRPRJHQHLW\,QDGGLWLRQWZRUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV 50 ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQ
WKHWULDOFDSVXOHVFRQWDLQLQJPLONSRZGHUDUWLILFLDOO\FRQWDPLQDWHGZLWK&SHUIULQJHQV7HVW
PDWHULDOVZHUHSUHSDUHGDWWKUHHODERUDWRULHVDQGYHULILHGRQKRPRJHQHLW\DQGVWDELOLW\WR
HQVXUHILWQHVVIRUSXUSRVH6DPSOHVZHUHVKLSSHGWRSDUWLFLSDQWVE\H[SUHVVGHOLYHU\VHUYLFHV
$QDO\VHV RI WKH WHVW PDWHULDOV KDYH EHHQ GRQH DFFRUGLQJ WR D VWDQGDUGLVHG SURWRFRO 7ZR
WHFKQLTXHV IRU FRQILUPDWLRQ RI SUHVXPSWLYH & SHUIULQJHQV ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ WR
GHWHFW SRVVLEOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SHUIRUPDQFH ODFWRVH VXOILWH PHGLXP DV GHVFULEHG LQ ,62
DQG ODFWRVHJHODWLQH PHGLXP PRWLOLW\QLWUDWH PHGLXP DOWHUQDWLYH
FRQILUPDWLRQPHWKRGLQ(1
7KHSUHFLVLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVZHUHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJERWK,62 DQGSU(1,62
5HSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 ZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKVDPSOHW\SH
LQRFXODWLRQOHYHODQGFRQILUPDWLRQPHWKRGVHSDUDWHO\7KHSUHFLVLRQGHSHQGHGRQWKHW\SHRI
VDPSOHDQDO\VHG,WLVQRWFOHDUZKHWKHUWKLVZDVGXHWRWKHPDWUL[RUWKHGLIIHUHQWZD\RI
DUWLILFLDOO\FRQWDPLQDWLQJWKHWHVWPDWHULDOV7KHEHVWSHUIRUPDQFHZDVIRXQGZKHQDQDO\VLQJ
WKH50V7KHSUHFLVLRQYDULHGEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOV%RWKFRQILUPDWLRQ
WHFKQLTXHVVKRZHGVLPLODUSHUIRUPDQFH
5HFRPPHQGDWLRQVWREHPDGHWR,62DQG&(1DUH
7RLQFOXGHWKHSUHFLVLRQGDWDIRXQGLQWKLVWULDODQGFDOFXODWHGXVLQJSU(1,62
LQWR,62 DQG(1
7RLQFOXGHERWKWHFKQLTXHVIRUWKHFRQILUPDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVDVWHVWHGLQWKLVWULDO
LQWR,62 OHDYLQJWKHFKRLFHDWWKHXVHUZKLFKRQHWRSHUIRUP7KLVZLOO
KDUPRQLVH,62 ZLWK(1
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
)RUDFFHSWDQFHRIVWDQGDUGVE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLWWHHIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ &(1 PHWKRGV
QHHGWREHYDOLGDWHG3URMHFWQR607&7VXSSRUWHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ
IUDPHZRUN6WDQGDUGV0HDVXUHPHQWVDQG7HVWLQJ3URJUDP 60 7 ZDVHODERUDWHG WR
WK
$OO PHWKRGV ZHUH YDOLGDWHG E\ FROODERUDWLYH VWXGLHV DFFRUGLQJ WR D VLPLODU GHVLJQ ZKLFK
FRQIRUPVWRWKHUXOHVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO+DUPRQLVHG3URWRFROIRU&ROODERUDWLYH6WXGLHV>@
$SSUR[LPDWHO\WZHQW\ODERUDWRULHVIURPYDULRXVFRXQWULHVZHUHLQYLWHGWRSDUWLFLSDWHLQHDFK
WULDO3DUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYHGGHWDLOHGWULDOFKURQRORJ\VWDQGDUGRSHUDWLQJSURFHGXUHV 623 DQG
DWHVWUHSRUWRQZKLFKWRUHFRUGWKHLUUHVXOWVDQGUHWXUQWRWKHWULDOOHDGHUIRUDQDO\VLV3ULRUWR
HDFK FROODERUDWLYHWULDODSUHWULDOZDVRUJDQLVHGEHWZHHQWKHWKUHH FRQWUDFWRUV WR YHULI\ WKH
623DV ZULWWHQ LGHQWLI\ DQ\ DPELJXLWLHVDQGWRHVWDEOLVKWKDWWKHWHVWPDWHULDOVZHUHILWIRU
SXUSRVH )RU HDFK YDOLGDWLRQ WKH PHWKRG ZDV FKDOOHQJHG ZLWK WKUHH W\SHV RI IRRG IURP WKH
GDLU\ PHDW DQG GULHG IRRG JURXSV ,Q DGGLWLRQ D UHIHUHQFH PDWHULDO 50 ZDV LQFOXGHG WR
LGHQWLI\ DQ\ VHULRXV HUURUV LQ D SDUWLFLSDQW¶V SHUIRUPDQFH DQG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH PD[LPXP
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
SUHFLVLRQ SRVVLEOH LQ FDVH RI TXDQWLWDWLYH PHWKRGV 7HVW PDWHULDOV XVHG WR YDOLGDWH WKH
PHWKRGV QHHGHG WR EH DUWLILFLDOO\ LQRFXODWHG WR DFKLHYH WKH GHVLUHG LQRFXOXP OHYHOV DQG
KRPRJHQHLW\7KHVHPDWHULDOVZHUHWHVWHGH[WHQVLYHO\SULRUWRWKHSUHWULDODQGFROODERUDWLYH
WULDO WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH\ FRXOG EH PDLQWDLQHG LQ D VWDEOH DQG KRPRJHQHRXV VWDWH IRU WKH
GXUDWLRQRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGWKHWULDOSHULRG'DWDIURPWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOVZHUHXVHGWR
FDOFXODWH
WKHUHSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 RIWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHPHWKRGVLQUHODWLRQWRIRRG
W\SHDQGLQRFXOXPOHYHO
WKHSHUIRUPDQFHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVUHODWLQJWRDQµHTXLYDOHQWYDOXH¶RIUDQG5DSSURSULDWHWR
TXDOLWDWLYH GDWD XVLQJ PRGHO VWDWLVWLFDO V\VWHPV ZKLFK LV GHYHORSHG DV RQH RI WKH
REMHFWLYHVRIWKLVSURMHFW>@
7KH SURMHFW VWDUWHG LQ 'HFHPEHU DQG ZDV ILQLVKHG LQ 'HFHPEHU 7KH UHVXOWV DUH
LQWHQGHGIRUSXEOLFDWLRQE\,62LQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ,62VWDQGDUGVDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\E\&(1
LQWKH&(1VWDQGDUGVYLDWKH9LHQQD$JUHHPHQW7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHYDOLGDWLRQRIPHWKRGV
KDYHDOUHDG\EHHQUHSRUWHG>@
7KLV UHSRUW GHVFULEHV WKH YDOLGDWLRQ RI WKH PHWKRG IRU WKH HQXPHUDWLRQ RI &ORVWULGLXP
SHUIULQJHQVDFFRUGLQJWR,62 >@7KHYDOLGDWLRQVWXG\ZDVRUJDQLVHGE\5,90
0*% ,Q WKLV VHFRQG HGLWLRQ RI ,62 ODFWRVHVXOILWH /6 PHGLXP LV SUHVFULEHG WR
FRQILUP WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF FRORQLHV IRXQG RQ WU\SWRVHVXOILWHF\FORVHULQH 76& DJDU
+RZHYHU LQ WKH ILUVW HGLWLRQ RI ,62 D FRPELQDWLRQ RI PRWLOLW\QLWUDWH 01
PHGLXPDQGODFWRVHJHODWLQH /* PHGLXPZDVSUHVFULEHGLQVWHDG,QWKH(XURSHDQVWDQGDUG
IRU WKH HQXPHUDWLRQ RI &ORVWULGLXP SHUIULQJHQV (1 >@ D FKRLFH LV DOORZHG
EHWZHHQFRQILUPDWLRQXVLQJODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXPDQGFRQILUPDWLRQXVLQJPRWLOLW\QLWUDWH
ODFWRVHJHODWLQH 01 /* PHGLXP VHH)LJXUH ,QWKLVYDOLGDWLRQVWXG\ERWKFRQILUPDWLRQ
PHWKRGVKDYHEHHQLQFOXGHGLQRUGHUWRSURYLGHGDWDIRUFRPSDULVRQWHVWLQJ
7R HVWDEOLVK WKH SUHFLVLRQ RI ,62 WKH PHWKRG ZDV FKDOOHQJHG ZLWK VDPSOHV RI IUHVK
FKHHVHPLQFHGEHHIGULHGDQLPDOIHHGDQGDUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDO 50 &KHHVHVDPSOHVZHUH
SUHSDUHGE\ &HQWUH G¶(WXGH HW GH &RQWUROHGHV$QDO\VHVHQ,QGXVWULH/DLWLHUH &(&$/$,7
3ROLJQ\ )UDQFH PHDW VDPSOHV E\ 0$))&6/ DQG GULHG SRWDWR VDPSOHV E\ 5,900*%
7KH50DFDSVXOHFRQWDLQLQJPLONSRZGHUWKDWLVLQRFXODWHGZLWK&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVZDV
VXSSOLHG E\ WKH )RXQGDWLRQ IRU WKH $GYDQFHPHQW RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO
3URWHFWLRQ 690%LOWKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV 7KHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOZDVFDUULHGRXWGXULQJ
-DQXDU\)HEUXDU\
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0HWKRG 0HWKRG
VHOHFWFRORQLHV VHOHFWFRORQLHV
IOXLGWKLRJO\FROODWH ODFWRVHJHODWLQHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWH
K& K&
)LJXUH 7ZRPHWKRGVIRUFRQILUPDWLRQRIFRORQLHVDV&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
0DWHULDOVDQGPHWKRGV
3UHSDUDWLRQRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
)RUHDFKIRRGW\SHLQRFXOXPOHYHOVZHUHSUHSDUHGLQDUDQJHWKDWFDQEHIRXQGLQQDWXUDO
FRQWDPLQDWHGVDPSOHV
%ODQNOHYHOFRQWDLQLQJRQO\EDFNJURXQGIORUD
/RZOHYHO FISJ &SHUIULQJHQVSOXVEDFNJURXQGIORUD
0HGLXPOHYHO FISJ&SHUIULQJHQVSOXVEDFNJURXQGIORUD
+LJKOHYHO FISJ&SHUIULQJHQVSOXVEDFNJURXQGIORUD
%DFNJURXQGIORUDGLIIHUHGIRUHDFKIRRGW\SHVLPXODWLQJWKHDXWRFKWKRQRXVIORUD
7RDFKLHYHWHVWPDWHULDOVFRQWDLQLQJDVWDEOHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVVDPSOHVQHHGHG
WREHLQRFXODWHGZLWK&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHV'LIIHUHQWVWUDLQVZHUHWHVWHGKRZHYHURQO\WZR
VWUDLQV SURGXFHG D VXIILFLHQW DPRXQW RI VSRUHV WR DFKLHYH LQRFXOXP OHYHOV XS WR FISJ
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
&KHHVHVDPSOHVZHUHSUHSDUHGE\&(&$/$,7 3ROLJQ\)UDQFH $OOEDWFKHVZHUHSUHSDUHG
DFFRUGLQJWRWKHIROORZLQJSURFHGXUH
3UHSDUDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVXVSHQVLRQ
& SHUIULQJHQV 74$ ZDV FXOWLYDWHG LQWR GHDHUDWHG WKLRJO\FROODWH )7* EURWK VHH
$SSHQGL[ IRU±KDW &2QHPORIWKLVFXOWXUHZDVDGGHGWRHDFKRI
WXEHVFRQWDLQLQJPO'XQFDQ 6WURQJ ' 6 PHGLXP VHH$SSHQGL[ VXSSOHPHQWHG
ZLWKmOVRGLXPELFDUERQDWHVROXWLRQDQGLQFXEDWHGDW &$IWHUGD\VRI
LQFXEDWLRQWKHFXOWXUHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGIRUPLQDWJDQGULQVHGZLWKVWHULOHGLVWLOOHG
ZDWHU7KHSHOOHWZDVUHVXVSHQGHGLQWRVWHULOHGLVWLOOHGZDWHUPDNLQJDWRWDORIPOVSRUH
VXVSHQVLRQ7KLVVSRUHVXVSHQVLRQZDVKHDWHGIRUPLQXWHVDW&WRNLOODOOYHJHWDWLYH
FHOOV 7KH VSRUH VXVSHQVLRQ ZDV SUHVHUYHG E\ IUHH]LQJ DW ± & RYHUQLJKW IROORZHG E\
IUHH]LQJ DW ± & IRU GD\V %HIRUH DQG DIWHU IUHH]LQJ WKH VSRUH OHYHO ZDV YHULILHG RQ
7U\SWRVH6XOILWH&\FORVHULQHDJDU 76&VHH$SSHQGL[ LQFXEDWHGDQDHURELFDOO\DW
7KHWHUPFRORQ\IRUPLQJXQLWV FIX LVFRPPRQO\XVHGLQPLFURELRORJ\+RZHYHUWKHZRUGµXQLW¶LQPHWURORJ\
LVUHVHUYHGIRU6,XQLWVWKHUHIRUHWKHWHUPFRORQ\IRUPLQJSDUWLFOHV FIS ZLOOEHXVHGLQVWHDG>@
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
& IRU KRXUV )LQDO VSRUH OHYHO ZDV FD [ VSRUHV PO 7KH VWUDLQ
VKRZHGSRVLWLYHUHDFWLRQVIRUDOOFRQILUPDWLRQWHVWVXVHGLQWKLVWULDO5HVXOWVIURP$3,$
&SHUIULQJHQV
%DFNJURXQGIORUD
7RJHWKHUZLWK&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVDOVRRWKHUVWUDLQVLVRODWHGIURPFKHHVHE\WKH,15$
ODERUDWRU\ZHUHDGGHGWRWKHFKHHVHVDPSOHVWRVLPXODWHQDWXUDOEDFNJURXQGIORUD
/DFWRFRFFXVODFWLVODFWLV
(QWHURFRFFXVIDHFDOLV
/DFWREDFLOOXVSDUDFDVHL
/DFWREDFLOOXVSODQWDUXP
/ ODFWLV ODFWLV DQG ( IDHFDOLV ZHUH LVRODWHG RQ 0 DJDU VHH $SSHQGL[ DQG WKH WZR
/DFWREDFLOOXVVWUDLQVRQ056DJDU VHH$SSHQGL[ 7KHEDFWHULDZHUHLQRFXODWHGLQ0
RU 056 EURWK VHH $SSHQGL[ UHVSHFWLYHO\ GXULQJ KRXUV DW & $IWHU WKDW FXOWXUHV
ZHUHPL[HG:/ODFWLVZLWK(IDHFDOLVDQGWKH/DFWREDFLOOXVVWUDLQVWRJHWKHU7KHLQRFXOXP
OHYHOVIRUWKHWDUJHWRUJDQLVPVZHUHYHULILHGXVLQJDVSLUDOSODWLQJV\VWHP
3UHSDUDWLRQRIFKHHVHVDPSOHV
&KHHVH VDPSOHV ZHUH SUHSDUHG LQ D OLTXLG IRUP 7KH FXOWXUHV DQG WKH VSRUH VROXWLRQ ZHUH
GLOXWHGLQó5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQ VHHDSSHQGL[ DQGWKHQDGGHGWRWKHFKHHVH)LQDOOHYHOVRI
&SHUIULQJHQVZHUHFD[ [ DQG[ FISJ%DFNJURXQGIORUDZDVDGGHGDW
WKH VDPH OHYHO DV & SHUIULQJHQV H[FHSW IRU WKH EODQN VDPSOHV [ FISJ EDFNJURXQG
IORUD $ EDFWHULRVWDWLF PL[WXUH &(&$/$,7 IRUPXODWLRQ ZDV DGGHG WR VWDELOLVH WKH
PLFURIORUD 7KH EDFWHULRVWDWLF HIIHFW LV QHJDWHG ZKHQ WKH VDPSOH LV GLOXWHG GXULQJ
H[DPLQDWLRQ 6XEVHTXHQWO\ WKH LQRFXODWHG FKHHVH ZDV FORWWHG DIWHU GLVSHQVLQJ DOLTXRWV RI
POLQWRLQGLYLGXDOYLDOVE\WKHDGGLWLRQRIUHQQHW )LJXUH 6DPSOHVZHUHVWRUHGDW
& XQWLO XVH %DWFKHV RI FKHHVH VDPSOHV WR EH XVHG LQ WKH FROODERUDWLYH WULDO ZHUH
SUHSDUHGGD\SULRUWRGLVSDWFKWRSDUWLFLSDQWVGXHWRWKHLUUHODWLYHO\VKRUWVWDELOLW\
'LOXWHGFXOWXUHVDQGVSRUHVROXWLRQ
Ï
%DFWHULRVWDWLF Í /,48,' Ì 5HQQHW
0L[WXUH &+((6(
Ï
'LVSHQVHDOLTXRWVRIPOLQWR
LQGLYLGXDOYLDOV
Ï
&ORWWLQJRIFKHHVH
)LJXUH 3UHSDUDWLRQRIFKHHVHVDPSOHV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
0HDWVDPSOHV
0HDW VDPSOHV ZHUH SUHSDUHG E\ WKH 0$)) &HQWUDO 6FLHQFH /DERUDWRU\ <RUN 8QLWHG
.LQJGRP
3UHSDUDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVXVSHQVLRQ
&SHUIULQJHQVVWUDLQ'ZDVFXOWLYDWHGLQFRRNHGPHDWPHGLXP $SSHQGL[ IRU
KDW &XQGHUDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQV7KHFXOWXUHZDVWKHQDGGHGWR' 6PHGLXP VHH
DSSHQGL[ DQGLQFXEDWHGIRU KDW & DQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQV
%DFNJURXQGIORUD
$OO VDPSOHV ZHUH DGGLWLRQDOO\ LQRFXODWHG ZLWK D VLPXODWHG DXWRFKWKRQRXV PHDW IORUD
FRPSULVLQJ /DFWREDFLOOXV SODQWDUXP 1&'2 &/6 <RUN 0LFURFRFFXV OXWHXV
1&7& 3+/6/RQGRQ DQG3VHXGRPRQDVDHUXJLQRVD1&'2 &6/<RUN DW D
OHYHORIFD[ FISJ7KLVEDFNJURXQGIORUDZDVFXOWLYDWHGLQWR1XWULHQW%URWK DSSHQGL[
3UHSDUDWLRQRIPHDWVDPSOHV
%DWFKHVRIWHVWPDWHULDOVZHUHSUHSDUHGXVLQJUHWDLOIUHVKPLQFHGEHHIZKLFKZDVIUHH]HGULHG
LQEXONVXEVDPSOHGLQWRYLDOV SRUWLRQVRIJHTXLYDOHQWV DQGLUUDGLDWHGDWN*\7KH
WHVWVWUDLQDQGEDFNJURXQGIORUDZHUHGLOXWHGWRWKHDSSURSULDWHOHYHODQGDGGHGDVDµFRFNWDLO¶
WR HDFK YLDO )LQDOO\ WKH YLDOV ZHUH IUHH]H GULHG D VHFRQG WLPH WR VWDELOLVH WKH VDPSOHV DQG
VWRUHGDW±&XQWLOXVH,WZDVQHFHVVDU\WRSUHSDUHGLIIHUHQWEDWFKHVIRUWKHSUHWULDODQG
WULDOWRDFKLHYHWKHGHVLUHGVWDELOLW\DQGKRPRJHQHLW\
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVZHUHSUHSDUHGE\WKH5,900*% %LOWKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
'XH WR WKH VWLFNLQHVV RI WKH GULHG DQLPDO IHHG LW ZDV QRW SRVVLEOH WR FRQWDPLQDWH WKH GULHG
DQLPDOIHHGGLUHFWO\ZLWKVSRUHVRIWKH'VWUDLQ7KHUHIRUHLWZDVGHFLGHGWRSUHSDUHDPLON
SRZGHU FRQWDPLQDWHG ZLWK & SHUIULQJHQV VSRUHV ZKLFK ZRXOG WKHQ EH DGGHG WR WKH GULHG
DQLPDOIHHG
3UHSDUDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVXVSHQVLRQV
&SHUIULQJHQV'ZDVXVHGWRLQRFXODWHGWKHGULHGDQLPDOIHHG7KHVWUDLQZDVFXOWLYDWHG
LQWRPOGHDHUDWHG)7* $SSHQGL[ IRU KDW &DWDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQV
7ZRVSRUHVXVSHQVLRQVZHUHSUHSDUHGIRUWKHPHGLXPDQGORZOHYHOVDPSOHVWKHFRPSOHWH
PO )7* FXOWXUH ZDV DGGHG WR PO ' 6 PHGLXP DSSHQGL[ DQG LQFXEDWHG
DQDHURELFDOO\DW &IRU &)RUWKHKLJKOHYHOVDPSOHVPORIWKH)7*
FXOWXUHZDVDGGHGWRHDFKRIWXEHVFRQWDLQLQJPO' 6PHGLXP DSSHQGL[ 7KHVH
WXEHV KDYH EHHQ LQFXEDWHG XQGHU DQDHURELF FRQGLWLRQV IRU K DW &
H[WHQVLRQRIWKHLQFXEDWLRQSHULRGDQGWKHXVHRIPRUH' 6PHGLXPLQFUHDVHVWKHOHYHORI
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
VSRUHV IRUPHG 7R NLOO YHJHWDWLYH FHOOV WKH ' 6 FXOWXUHV ZHUH KHDWHG IRU PLQXWHV DW
&7KHFXOWXUHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHGIRUPLQXWHVDWJ7KHSHOOHWVZHUHUHVXVSHQGHG
LQPOSHSWRQHVDOWVROXWLRQ $SSHQGL[ DQGFHQWULIXJHGDJDLQIRUPLQXWHVDWJ
3UHSDUDWLRQRIKLJKO\FRQWDPLQDWHGPLONSRZGHUV +&03
(DFK SHOOHW RI VSRUHV ZDV GLVVROYHG LQ FD PO FRQGHQVHG VWHULOH PLON )ULHVFKH 9ODJ
*RXGEDQG7KH1HWKHUODQGV GLUHFWO\DIWHUFHQWULIXJDWLRQ7KHQFDPORIHDFKVXVSHQVLRQ
ZDV GULHG RQWR J RI VWHULOH PLON SRZGHU &DUQDWLRQ 1HVWOp LUUDGLDWHG DW N*\ E\
PHDQV RI IOXLG EHG VSUD\ JUDQXODWLRQ 675($ 1LUR$HURPDWLF 7KLV UHVXOWHG LQ WZR
KLJKO\FRQWDPLQDWHGPLONSRZGHUV +&03 DKLJKOHYHO+&03 EDWFK,FRQWDLQLQJ
DSSUR[ FISJ DQGDPHGLXPOHYHO+&03 EDWFKFRQWDLQLQJDSSUR[ FISJ
)RUWKHORZOHYHOSDUWRIWKHPHGLXPOHYHO+&03ZDVPL[HGZLWKVWHULOHPLONSRZGHU
&DUQDWLRQ 1HVWOp 7KH LQRFXOXP OHYHO RI WKLV +&03 EDWFK 0 ZDV DSSUR[
FISJ &RQWDPLQDWLRQ OHYHOV KDYH EHHQ YHULILHG RQ 76& $SSHQGL[ LQFXEDWHG
%DFNJURXQGIORUD
7KHQDWXUDOFRQWDPLQDWLRQRIWKHDQLPDOIHHGZDVXVHGDVEDFNJURXQGIORUD7KHGULHGDQLPDO
IHHGSRZGHUZDVREWDLQHGLQEXONIURP&HKDYHQY 9HJKHO7KH1HWKHUODQGV 7KHOHYHORI
EDFWHULDZKLFKJURZXQGHUDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQVRQ3ODWH&RXQWDJDU 3&$DSSHQGL[ ZDV
DERXW[ FISJ7KHOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQVFRXQWHGRQ76&DJDUZDVDERXWFISJ$V
WKLV &SHUIULQJHQV OHYHO LV QHJOLJLEOH WR WKH OHYHOV RI DUWLILFLDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQ WR
FISJ WKLVEDWFKRIDQLPDOIHHGZDVDSSURYHGIRUXVHLQWKHWULDO
3UHSDUDWLRQRIGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
)LQDO VDPSOHV ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ DGGLQJ D FHUWDLQ DPRXQW RI FRQWDPLQDWHG PLON SRZGHU
GHSHQGLQJRQWKHLQRFXOXPOHYHORIWKHPLONSRZGHUEDWFKHVVHH WRDYLDOFRQWDLQLQJ
GULHGDQLPDOIHHGPDNLQJDWRWDORIJRIWHVWVDPSOH 7DEOH $VWKHFRQWHQWVRIWKHYLDOV
ZHUHQRWKRPRJHQLVHGWKHYLDOVQHHGHGWREHDQDO\VHGFRPSOHWHO\7KHILQDOVDPSOHVZHUH
VWRUHGDW&XQWLOXVH
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
7DEOH 3UHSDUDWLRQRIGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
5HIHUHQFHPDWHULDO
)RUUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDO 50 FDSVXOHVFRQWDLQLQJ&SHUIULQJHQV'ZHUHREWDLQHGIURPWKH
)RXQGDWLRQIRUWKH$GYDQFHPHQWRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ %LOWKRYHQ
7KH1HWKHUODQGV
EDWFKQXPEHU5%H[SGDWH0D\
PHDQOHYHO FRQILGHQFHOLPLWV RI&SHUIULQJHQVSHUFDSVXOHZDV
[ FIS [ ±[ FIS
7KHFDSVXOHVZHUHVWRUHGDW±&XQWLOXVH
+RPRJHQHLW\DQGVWDELOLW\RIWHVWPDWHULDOV
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
7HQVDPSOHVRIWKHORZOHYHOEDWFKZHUHH[DPLQHG7KHVDPSOHVZHUHH[DPLQHGLQGXSOLFDWH
GD\VDIWHUSUHSDUDWLRQZKLFKZDVWKHGD\RIH[DPLQDWLRQDWWKHWULDO)RUHDFKH[DPLQDWLRQ
JRIFKHHVHZDVGLOXWHGLQPO. +32 VROXWLRQ>@DQGEOHQGHGGXULQJPLQXWHV7KLV
7KH&(&$/$,7FRPSXWHUSURJUDPZDVXVHGIRUVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV7KHc &KLVTXDUHWHVW
a ZDVFDOFXODWHGRQWKHWRWDOFRXQWRI&SHUIULQJHQVFRORQLHVSHUVDPSOH,QWKLVZD\
WKH GLVSHUVLRQ RI WKH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ ZDV FRPSDUHG WR WKH GLVSHUVLRQ REWDLQHG LQ D 3RLVVRQ
VHULHV
6WDELOLW\
)UHVKO\SUHSDUHGFKHHVHVDPSOHVDUHVWDEOHIRUDIHZGD\VRQO\)RUWKHWULDOWKHVWDELOLW\RI
WKH ORZ OHYHO EDWFK ZDV WHVWHG E\ DQDO\VLQJ VDPSOHV HDFK GD\ LQ GXSOLFDWH RQ 76& DJDU
$SSHQGL[ XS WR GD\V DIWHU SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKHVH VDPSOHV 7KH VDPH H[DPLQDWLRQ
SURFHGXUHZDVXVHGDVIRUWKHKRPRJHQHLW\WHVWLQJ
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0HDWVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
7HQVDPSOHVRIWKHORZPHGLXPDQGKLJKOHYHOEDWFKHVZHUHH[DPLQHGLQGXSOLFDWHRQ76&
DJDU $SSHQGL[ DW WKH GD\ RI SUHSDUDWLRQ DQG DW WKH WHVW GD\ LQ WULDO GD\V DIWHU
SUHSDUDWLRQ 7KH H[DPLQDWLRQ SURFHGXUH LV DV ZULWWHQ LQ WKH 623 VHH $SSHQGL[
+RPRJHQHLW\ZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\DQ)WHVW a RQWKHFRXQWV
6WDELOLW\
7KHVWDELOLW\RIWKHFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOVRIWKHPHDWVDPSOHVZDVPRQLWRUHGRYHUDSHULRGRI
GD\V$W VHYHUDO LQWHUYDOV VDPSOHVRIWKHORZPHGLXPDQGKLJKOHYHOSUHWULDOEDWFK
ZHUHH[DPLQHGLQGXSOLFDWHRQ76&DJDU $SSHQGL[ ([DPLQDWLRQZDVGRQHDFFRUGLQJWR
WKH623 VHH$SSHQGL[
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
)RU WHVWLQJ WKH KRPRJHQHLW\ RI WKH FRQWDPLQDWHG PLON SRZGHU EDWFKHV DQG WKXV WKH ILQDO
VDPSOHVDVHDFKVDPSOHFRQWDLQVWKHVDPHDPRXQWRIFRQWDPLQDWHGPLONSRZGHU [J
PLON SRZGHU ZDV GLOXWHG LQ PO SHSWRQH VDOW VROXWLRQ DSSHQGL[ DQG PL[HG IRU
VHFRQGV RQ D ZKLUOPL[HU 2QH PO RI WKLV ± GLOXWLRQ DQG VXEVHTXHQW GLOXWLRQV ZHUH
DQDO\VHGRQWR76&DJDU $SSHQGL[ 7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHGXSOLFDWHFRXQWVSHUVDPSOHRQ76&
DJDUZHUHDQDO\VHGIRUWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQGXSOLFDWHFRXQWV 7 WHVW >@DQGEHWZHHQWKH
, WKHQXPEHURIVDPSOHVDQDO\VHGLVUHJDUGHGDVLQGLFDWLRQRIJRRGKRPRJHQHLW\
6WDELOLW\
7KH VWDELOLW\ RI & SHUIULQJHQV VSRUHV LQ HDFK EDWFK RI DQLPDO IHHG ZDV PRQLWRUHG E\
DQDO\VLQJWKHLQRFXOXPOHYHOVLQWKHPLONSRZGHUEDWFKHV ERWKDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVDQGPLON
SRZGHUEDWFKHVZHUHVWRUHGDW±& )RUWKHKLJKOHYHO EDWFK, DQGPHGLXPOHYHO
EDWFK VWDELOLW\ ZDV PRQLWRUHG RYHU D SHULRG RI ZHHNV IURP SUHSDUDWLRQ XQWLO
WULDO )RU WKH ORZ OHYHO EDWFK 0 VWDELOLW\ ZDV RQO\ PRQLWRUHG RYHU D SHULRG RI
ZHHNVDVWKLVEDWFKZDVSUHSDUHGVKRUWO\EHIRUHWKHWULDO$WVHYHUDOLQWHUYDOVWRVDPSOHV
RIJUDPPLONSRZGHUZHUHH[DPLQHGDWHDFKLQWHUYDO7KHH[DPLQDWLRQSURFHGXUHZDVWKH
VDPHDVIRUKRPRJHQHLW\WHVWLQJ
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
'HVLJQRIWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
'LVSDWFKRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
,QWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOSHUIRRGW\SHVDPSOHVZHUHDQDO\VHGEOLQGGXSOLFDWHVRIHDFKRI
WKH IRXU LQRFXODWLRQ OHYHOV EODQN ORZ PHGLXP DQG KLJK ,Q DGGLWLRQ UHIHUHQFH FDSVXOHV
ZHUHH[DPLQHG7KHVDPSOHFRGHVZHUH&&IRUFKHHVHVDPSOHV00IRUPHDWVDPSOHV
'' IRU GULHG DQLPDO IHHG VDPSOHV DQG 55 IRU WKH UHIHUHQFH PDWHULDOV 7KH VDPSOH
FRGHVZHUHUDQGRPLVHGIRUHDFKSDUWLFLSDQW
0HDWGULHGDQLPDOIHHGDQGUHIHUHQFHFDSVXOHVZHUHGLVSDWFKHGWRWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVE\5,90
RQ-DQXDU\&KHHVHVDPSOHVZHUHSUHSDUHGE\&(&$/$,7RQ)HEUXDU\DQG
GLVSDWFKHG RQ )HEUXDU\ WR SDUWLFLSDQWV $OO VDPSOHV ZHUH VKLSSHG E\ LQWHUQDWLRQDO
H[SUHVV FDUULHUV LQ SRO\VW\UHQH LVRODWHG ER[HV 6HYHUDO LFH SDFNV IUR]HQ WR & ZHUH
LQFOXGHGLQWKHSDUFHOWRSUHYHQWWKHVDPSOHVIURPEHLQJVXEMHFWHGWRKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHV7R
GHWHFW SRVVLEOH WHPSHUDWXUH DEXVH GXULQJ WUDQVSRUW WZR WLPHWHPSHUDWXUH FRQWURO GHYLFHV
:DUP0DUN%ODQNHQ&RQWUROV/RHQHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV ZHUHLQFOXGHGLQHDFKSDUFHOZLWK
UHVSRQVHWHPSHUDWXUHVRI&DQG&:KHQWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQWKHSDUFHOH[FHHGVWKH
UHVSRQVH WHPSHUDWXUH IRU PRUH WKDQ & WKH GHYLFH WXUQV UHG 7KH ORQJHU WKH WHPSHUDWXUH
DEXVHRUWKHKLJKHUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQWKHER[WKHPRUHFRPSDUWPHQWV EULHIPRGHUDWH RU
SURORQJHGH[SRVXUH RIWKHGHYLFHZLOOWXUQUHG3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGWRFKHFNWKHGHYLFHV
DWDUULYDODQGLQFDVHRIVHYHUHWHPSHUDWXUHDEXVHWRFRQWDFWWKHRUJDQLVLQJODERUDWRU\
6WDQGDUG2SHUDWLQJ3URFHGXUH
3ULRUWRWKHWULDOSDUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYHGJHQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHREMHFWLYHVRIWKHWULDO
$SSHQGL[ $QDO\VLVRIWKHVDPSOHVKDGWRWDNHSODFHZLWKLQDVSHFLILHGWLPHVFKHGXOHWKH
H[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHPHDWVDPSOHVKDGWRVWDUWEHWZHHQDQG-DQXDU\'ULHGDQLPDO
IHHGVDPSOHVKDGWREHDQDO\VHGEHWZHHQDQG-DQXDU\&KHHVHVDPSOHVKDGWREH
H[DPLQHGRQDVSHFLILFGD\)HEUXDU\GXHWRWKHOLPLWHGVWDELOLW\RI WKHVH VDPSOHV
7KHH[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHUHIHUHQFHVDPSOHVKDGWRWDNHSODFHFRQFXUUHQWO\ZLWKRQHRIWKHIRRG
W\SHVFKRVHQE\WKHSDUWLFLSDQW
'HWDLOHG LQVWUXFWLRQV IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH WHVW PDWHULDOV LV ZULWWHQ LQ D VWDQGDUG RSHUDWLQJ
SURFHGXUH 623 $SSHQGL[ 7KLV623ZDVLQFRQFRUGDQFHZLWK,62VXSSOHPHQWHG
ZLWK H[WUD LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ KRZ WR KDQGOH WKH VSHFLILF VDPSOH W\SHV 0HGLD QHHGHG IRU WKH
H[DPLQDWLRQV ZHUH QRW VXSSOLHG E\ WKH RUJDQLVLQJ ODERUDWRU\ EXW ZDV WKH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ RI
HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW 0HGLD FRPSRVLWLRQV DQG LQVWUXFWLRQV RQ SUHSDUDWLRQ ZHUH DOVR LQFOXGHG LQ
WKH623
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
'DWDDQDO\VLVWULDO
6FUHHQLQJWHVWUHVXOWV
$OOWHVWUHSRUWVKDYHEHHQVWXGLHGFDUHIXOO\ZKHWKHUUHVXOWVZHUHREWDLQHGFRUUHFWO\ZHUHWKH
PHGLDXVHGLQFXEDWLRQWHPSHUDWXUHVSHULRGVHWFDFFRUGLQJWRWKH623":KHQWKH623ZDV
QRWVWULFWO\IROORZHGDQGWKHGHYLDWLRQFRXOGKDYHLQIOXHQFHGWKHWHVWUHVXOWV WKLVZDVGHFLGHG
DIWHU GLVFXVVLRQ ZLWK WKH JURXS RI SDUWLFLSDWLQJ ODERUDWRULHV WKH FRQFHUQLQJ GDWD ZHUH
H[FOXGHGIURPIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV $SSHQGL[
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$ 'XQFDQ V 0XOWLSOH 5DQJH WHVW ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ DOO WHVW UHVXOWV WR FKHFN IRU RXWOLHUV
$SSHQGL[ ,Q WKLV WHVW WKH PHDQ ORJ YDOXHV RI WKH EOLQG GXSOLFDWH VDPSOHV IRU HDFK
LQRFXODWLRQOHYHODQGHDFKVDPSOHW\SHDUHFRPSDUHGEHWZHHQDOOODERUDWRULHV0HDQVWKDWDUH
QRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW a IURPHDFKRWKHUDUHLQGLFDWHGZLWKWKHVDPHFKDUDFWHU$
VLQJOHPHDQVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQWIURPDOOWKHRWKHUPHDQVLVLQGLFDWLQJIRUDQRXWO\LQJUHVXOW
7KHUHVXOWVWKDWZHUHUHJDUGHGDVVXVSHFWHGRXWOLHUVLQWKH'XQFDQ¶V0XOWLSOH5DQJHWHVWZHUH
FKHFNHGIRUHUURUVGXULQJDQDO\VLV:KHQDUHDVRQFRXOGEHDSSRLQWHGH[SODLQLQJWKDWWKHVH
UHVXOWV ZHUH QRW REWDLQHG FRUUHFWO\ WKH UHVXOWV ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP IXUWKHU DQDO\VLV
$SSHQGL[ :KHQ QR H[SODQDWLRQ FRXOG EH IRXQG WKH UHVXOWV ZHUH UHJDUGHG DV QDWXUDO
RFFXUULQJYDULDWLRQDQGWKXVQRWH[FOXGHGIURPIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV
7KH EODQN VDPSOHV ZHUH RQO\ VWXGLHG IRU IDOVH SRVLWLYHV 'DWD IURP EODQN VDPSOHV ZHUH
H[FOXGHGIURPIXUWKHUDQDO\VLV
$OOUHPDLQLQJGDWDZHUHDQDO\VHGXVLQJWKHVWDWLVWLFDOFRPSXWHUSURJUDP6$6IRU:LQGRZV
YHUVLRQ 6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF&DU\86$ 7KHSURWRFROLVJLYHQLQ$SSHQGL[
3HUIRUPDQFHZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\
7RFKHFNWKHSHUIRUPDQFHZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\WZRWHVWVZHUHFDUULHGRXWEDVHGRQWKH7
WHVWDQG7 WHVWIRUPLFURELRORJLFDOUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV>@7KHDGMXVWHGYHUVLRQVDUHFDOOHG
7 DQG 7
UHSO DQG ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU HDFK VDPSOH W\SH VHSDUDWHO\ 7 UHSUHVHQWV WKH
GXSO UHSO
YDULDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH UHSOLFDWH FRXQWV ZLWKLQ HDFK GLOXWLRQ LH ZKHWKHU WKH LQRFXODWLRQ RI
SODWHV ZDV SHUIRUPHG FRUUHFWO\ ,W ZDV H[SHFWHG WKDW WKH YDULDWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHSOLFDWH FRXQWV
IURP WKH VDPH GLOXWLRQ LV 3RLVVRQ GLVWULEXWHG ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW WKH 7 PHDVXUH ZRXOG
UHSO
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHUHVXOWVIURPUHSOLFDWHFRXQWV
7 UHSO = Ê
*
ÊÊ
( , - ]JLM -
]JL +
-
)
J = L = M = ]JL +
-
ZKHUH ]
JLM FRXQWRIUHSOLFDWHMRIVDPSOHGLOXWLRQLRIVDPSOHJ
]
JL VXPRIFRXQWVRIDOOUHSOLFDWHVRIGLOXWLRQLRIVDPSOHJ
- QXPEHURIUHSOLFDWHVH[DPLQHGSHUVDPSOHGLOXWLRQLRIVDPSOHJ
, QXPEHURIGLOXWLRQVH[DPLQHGSHUVDPSOHJ
* QXPEHURIVDPSOHVH[DPLQHGIRUHDFKVDPSOHW\SH
7 GXSO UHSUHVHQWV WKH YDULDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH EOLQG GXSOLFDWH VDPSOHV ZLWKLQ HDFK LQRFXOXP
OHYHO,QLGHDOFDVHWKHVXPRIWKHFRXQWVSHUGLOXWLRQLV3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWHGZKLFKPHDQVWKDW
WKH 7 PHDVXUHZRXOGIROORZDc GLVWULEXWLRQZLWK,GHJUHHVRIIUHHGRP a ,Q
GXSO
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
SUDFWLVHDYDULDWLRQRI[3RLVVRQLVVWLOOFRQVLGHUHGDVDFFHSWDEOHYDULDWLRQ$KLJK7 GXSO
YDOXHPHDQVWKDWDODUJHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQEOLQGGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHVZDVIRXQG
7 GXSO = Ê
+
ÊÊ
(, . ]KLN - )
]KL +
.
K = L = N = ]KL +
.
ZKHUH ]
KLN FRXQWRIGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHN VXPRIFRXQWVRIUHSOLFDWHVM RIGLOXWLRQ
LRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOK = LQ7
JL UHSO
]
KL VXPRIFRXQWVRIDOOGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHVNRIGLOXWLRQLRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQ
OHYHOK
. QXPEHURIGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHVH[DPLQHGSHUFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOK
, QXPEHURIGLOXWLRQVH[DPLQHGSHUFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOK
+ QXPEHURIFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOVH[DPLQHGSHUVDPSOHW\SH
&RPSDULVRQRIFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
7KHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGXVLQJODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXPDQGXVLQJERWKPRWLOLW\QLWUDWH ODFWRVH
JHODWLQPHGLXPDVFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHZHUHFRPSDUHGXVLQJDQ)WHVW a
3UHFLVLRQGDWDIURPWULDO
7KHSUHFLVLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQWHUPVRIUHSHDWDELOLW\DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ZHUHFDOFXODWHGLQ
WZRZD\V
$FFRUGLQJWR,62 >@7KLVLVWKHWUDGLWLRQDODSSURDFKIRUGHWHUPLQDWLRQRI
SUHFLVLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV UHSHDWDELOLW\ U DQG UHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 RULJLQDOO\ GHYHORSHG IRU
DQDO\VLQJGDWDIURPFKHPLFDODQDO\VHV&DOFXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\5,90XVLQJ
DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH 6$6 6\VWHP UHOHDVH >@ 7KH 6$6 SURWRFRO LV JLYHQ LQ
$SSHQGL[
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHGUDIW(1,62 >@7KLVLVWKHQHZDSSURDFKGHULYHGIURP
WKH 0LFURYDO SURMHFW >@ DQG FXUUHQWO\ VWDQGDUGLVHG E\ &(17&:* 7DVN
&RPPLWWHH )RRG $QDO\VLV±+RUL]RQWDO 0HWKRGV :RUNLQJ *URXS 0LFURELDO
&RQWDPLQDWLRQ 7KLV VWDQGDUG LV VSHFLDOO\ GHYHORSHG IRU GDWD IURP PLFURELRORJLFDO
DQDO\VHV7KHSUHFLVLRQGDWDDUHFDOFXODWHGZLWKUREXVWVWDWLVWLFVXVLQJWKHPHGLDQLQVWHDG
RIWKHPHDQYDOXHV,QWKLVZD\RXWO\LQJUHVXOWVZLOOQRWLQIOXHQFHWKHFDOFXODWLRQV
&DOFXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\$)66$ 0DLVRQV$OIRUW)UDQFH XVLQJ([FHO
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
5HVXOWVDQGGLVFXVVLRQ
+RPRJHQHLW\DQGVWDELOLW\RIWHVWPDWHULDOV
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
7KHc YDOXHRQWKHWRWDOFRXQWRIFRORQLHVRI&SHUIULQJHQVSHUVDPSOHRIWKHVDPSOHV
WHVWHGIURPWKHORZOHYHOWULDOEDWFKZDVZLWKDLQWHUYDORI)RUWKLVYDOXH
DJUHHPHQWZLWKD3RLVVRQVHULHVZDVQRWUHMHFWHGDWWKHSUREDELOLW\OHYHODQGWKHUHIRUH
WKHWHVWEDWFKZDVUHJDUGHGDVKRPRJHQHRXV+RPRJHQHLW\RIWKHRWKHUEDWFKHVZDVDVVXPHG
WREHVLPLODUWRWKHORZOHYHOEDWFK
6WDELOLW\
6WDELOLW\UHVXOWVRIWKHORZOHYHOEDWFKDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH7KHOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQV
VSRUHVZDVVWDEOH OHVVWKDQGHFOLQHRYHUWKHSHULRGWHVWHG IRUDWOHDVWXSWRGD\VDIWHU
SUHSDUDWLRQ 6WDELOLW\ RI WKH RWKHU OHYHOV ZDV DVVXPHG WR EH VLPLODU WR WKH ORZ OHYHO EDWFK
'XULQJ WKH WULDO VDPSOHV ZHUH DQDO\VHG ZLWKLQ RU GD\V DIWHU SUHSDUDWLRQ H[FHSW IRU
ODERUDWRU\VHH
ORJFISJ
6WRUDJHDW& GD\V
)LJXUH 6WDELOLW\RIWKHORZOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQV74$VSRUHVLQIUHVKFKHHVHVDPSOHV
VWRUHGDW&
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0HDWVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
+RPRJHQHLW\GDWDIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWEDWFKHVWKDWZHUHXVHGLQWKHWULDODUHJLYHQLQ7DEOH$Q
)WHVW a ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ WKHFRXQWVRQWKHSODWHV$WWKHGD\RISUHSDUDWLRQ WKH
ORZOHYHODQGPHGLXPOHYHOZHUHKRPRJHQHRXVWKHKLJKOHYHOVKRZHGPRUHYDULDELOLW\WKDQ
FDQEHH[SODLQHGE\3RLVVRQGLVWULEXWLRQ$WGD\RIH[DPLQDWLRQLQWKHWULDO GD\ RQO\WKH
ORZOHYHOVKRZHGKHWHURJHQHLW\
7DEOH +RPRJHQHLW\RIPHDWVDPSOHV
HYLGHQFHRIKHWHURJHQHLW\EHWZHHQYLDOVWHVWHG
6WDELOLW\
6WDELOLW\WHVWUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH7KHOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVZDVVWDEOH
OHVVWKDQGHFOLQH IRUDWOHDVWXSWRGD\VDIWHUSUHSDUDWLRQ,QWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
VDPSOHVZHUHDQDO\VHGZLWKLQGD\V
KLJK
ORJFISJ
PHGLXP
ORZ
VWRUDJHWLPH GD\V
)LJXUH 6WDELOLW\RIWKHOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQV'VSRUHVLQPHDWVDPSOHVVWRUHGDW&
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
+RPRJHQHLW\
7KH KRPRJHQHLW\ RI WKH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ LQ WKH +&03 EDWFKHV LV JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH
+RPRJHQHLW\ZDVVDWLVIDFWRU\IRUDOOEDWFKHVDV7 , LQDOOFDVHV ORZOHYHOEDWFKZDV
MXVW VDWLVIDFWRU\ 1RWH WKDW DOO LQRFXOXP OHYHOV JLYHQ DUH WKH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ OHYHOV LQ WKH
+&03WKXVDIROGKLJKHUWKDQLQWKHILQDOGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV7KHILQDOLQRFXOXP
OHYHOVLQWKHDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV VHHDOVR7DEOH ZHUH FISJ QDWXUDOFRQWDPLQDWLRQ
VDPSOHVUHVSHFWLYHO\
7DEOH +RPRJHQHLW\RIWKH+&03VFRQWDLQLQJ&SHUIULQJHQV'
+&03EDWFK , 0HDQ FISJ PHDQORJ FISJ
7 ,
6WDELOLW\DW&
6WDELOLW\UHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH$VPLONSRZGHUEDWFKHVZHUHWHVWHGLQVWHDGRIWKH
DQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVWKHPHDQOHYHOVDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHDUHDERXWIROGKLJKHUWKDQLQ
WKHDFWXDOVDPSOHV$OOEDWFKHVZHUHVWDEOHRYHUWKHSHULRGWHVWHG QRVLJQLILFDQWGHFUHDVH
,
KLJK
PHGLXP
ORJFIXJ
0
ORZ
VWRUDJHWLPHLQZHHNV
)LJXUH 6WDELOLW\RIWKHOHYHORI&SHUIULQJHQVVSRUHVLQ+&03EDWFKHVVWRUHGDW&
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
*HQHUDOUHVXOWVRIWKHWULDO
3DUWLFLSDQWV
$WRWDORIODERUDWRULHVIURP(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
7ZHOYHODERUDWRULHVH[DPLQHGDOOVDPSOHW\SHVDQGXVHGERWKFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV7ZR
ODERUDWRULHV GLGQRWSHUIRUPWKHODFWRVHVXOILWHFRQILUPDWLRQDQGWKUHHODERUDWRULHV
DQG GLGQRWSHUIRUPWKHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHODFWRVHJHODWLQHFRQILUPDWLRQ7KHUHIRUHD
WRWDORIODERUDWRULHVDQDO\VHGDOOVDPSOHVXVLQJODFWRVHVXOILWHWHFKQLTXH ,62 DQG
ODERUDWRULHVH[DPLQHGWKHVDPSOHVXVLQJWKHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHDQGODFWRVHJHODWLQHWHFKQLTXH
(1
'LVSDWFKRIWHVWPDWHULDOV
0HDW GULHG DQLPDO IHHG DQG 50V ZHUH VKLSSHG RQ -DQXDU\ IURP 5,90 7KH
1HWKHUODQGV DQGZHUHGHOLYHUHGDWODERUDWRULHVZLWKLQKRXUVDWODERUDWRULHVEHWZHHQ
DQGKRXUVDQGDWWKUHHODERUDWRULHVEHWZHHQDQGKRXUVDIWHUGLVSDWFK2QO\WKUHH
ODERUDWRULHV ODERUDWRULHVDQG UHFHLYHGVDPSOHVWKDWKDGEHHQH[SRVHGWRWHPSHUDWXUHV
DERYH& RQO\EULHIWRPRGHUDWHH[SRVXUH
&KHHVHVDPSOHVZHUHVKLSSHGIURP&(&$/$,7 )UDQFH WRWKHSDUWLFLSDWLQJODERUDWRULHVRQ
)HEUXDU\ 7ZHOYH ODERUDWRULHV UHFHLYHG WKH SDUFHO ZLWKLQ KRXUV DQG WKUHH
ODERUDWRULHV ZLWKLQ KRXUV 7KHVH ODERUDWRULHV FRPPHQFHG H[DPLQDWLRQV RQ WKH
SUHVFULEHG GDWH RI )HEUXDU\ +RZHYHU WZR ODERUDWRULHV DQG UHFHLYHG WKH
VDPSOHV RQ )HEUXDU\ KRXUV DIWHU VKLSPHQW 2QO\ VDPSOHV GLVSDWFKHG WR
ODERUDWRULHVDQGZHUHH[SRVHGWRWHPSHUDWXUHVDERYH& RQO\EULHIH[SRVXUH 1RQH
RIWKHVDPSOHVKDYHEHHQH[SRVHGWRWHPSHUDWXUHVRYHU&
/DERUDWRU\ZDVDEOHWRVWDUWWKHH[DPLQDWLRQRQ)HEUXDU\KRZHYHUODERUDWRU\
VWDUWHGH[DPLQDWLRQRQ)HEUXDU\ DIWHUWKHZHHNHQG %DVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVWDELOLW\
WHVWV RI WKH FKHHVH VDPSOHV LW ZDV DJUHHG WKDW WKH UHVXOWV IURP ODERUDWRU\ ZKR
DQDO\VHG WKH VDPSOHV GD\V DIWHU SUHSDUDWLRQ ZHUH QRW H[FOXGHG IURP VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV
$SSHQGL[
0HGLD
(DFK SDUWLFLSDQW ZDV DOORZHG WR FKRRVH ZKHWKHU WR XVH FRPPHUFLDOO\ DYDLODEOH GHK\GUDWHG
PHGLD RU XVH PHGLD SUHSDUHG IURP LQGLYLGXDO LQJUHGLHQWV DV ORQJ DV WKH LQJUHGLHQWV DQG
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHUH LGHQWLFDO WR WKH SUHVFULSWLRQ LQ WKH 623 ,Q FDVH RI XVLQJ LQGLYLGXDO
LQJUHGLHQWVDOOEDWFKQXPEHUVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVXVHGKDGWREHUHFRUGHGRQWKHWHVWUHSRUW
7DEOHVXPPDULVHVWKHQXPEHURIODERUDWRULHVXVLQJHLWKHUFRPPHUFLDODYDLODEOHPHGLDDQG
KRPHSUHSDUHGPHGLDIRUHDFKPHGLXPXVHGLQWKHWULDO
&RPSOHWH GHK\GUDWHG 76& DJDU EDVH ZDV REWDLQHG IURP 0(5&. [ 'LIFR [ %LRNDU
[ DQG $(6 /DERUDWRULHV [ /DERUDWRU\ XVHG 76& DJDU EDVH IURP 2[RLG 7KLV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
GHK\GUDWHG IRUPXOD FRQWDLQV DGGLWLRQDO WR WKH FRPSRVLWLRQ GHVFULEHG LQ ,62 J
ODEOHPFRSRZGHU $SDUWIURPWKDWDOVRHJJ\RONZDVDGGHGWRWKHEDVH QRWWRWKHEDVHXVHG
IRUDQDO\VLQJWKHFKHHVHVDPSOHV ZKLFKZDVQRWDFFRUGLQJWRWKH6237KLVUHVXOWHGLQDQ
DJDUZKLFKLVPRUHHQULFKHGDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\WKLVPLJKWKDYHUHVXOWHGLQHQKDQFHGJURZWKRI
&SHUIULQJHQVRQWKH76&SODWHV$VWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVWULDOZDVWRYDOLGDWHWKH,62
DV ZULWWHQLWZDVGHFLGHGEHWZHHQWKHSDUWQHUVRI WKLV SURMHFW WR H[FOXGH WKH UHVXOWV
IURPODERUDWRU\
&RPPHUFLDO )OXLG WKLRJO\FROODWH )7* ZDV REWDLQHG IURP 2[RLG [ 0(5&. [
'LDJQRVWLFV3DVWHXU [ DQG/DE0 [
&RPSOHWH ODFWRVHVXOILWH PHGLXP ZDV XVHG IURP 6DQRIL 'LDJQRVWLFV 3DVWHXU [ DQG
6&+$5/$1 [ DQGODERUDWRU\XVHGODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXPIURP$(6/DERUDWRLUHV
7DEOH 1XPEHURIODERUDWRULHVXVLQJFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLDDQGKRPHSUHSDUHGPHGLD
$OO PHGLD SUHSDUHG IURP LQGLYLGXDO LQJUHGLHQWV KDYH EHHQ FKHFNHG DQG FRQILUPHG EHLQJ
PDGHDFFRUGLQJWRWKHIRUPXODWLRQLQWKH6237KHS+YDOXHVZHUHQHDUO\DOODFFRUGLQJWRWKH
FULWHULDRQO\IRUDVPDOOQXPEHURIPHGLDWKHS+GLIIHUHGIRUPD[S+XQLWVRXWVLGHWKH
JLYHQUDQJH7KLVVPDOOGHYLDWLRQZDVFRQVLGHUHGDVRIPLQRULQIOXHQFHLQWKHILQDOUHVXOWV,W
ZDVDJUHHGWKDWDOOPHGLDWKDWZHUHXVHGLQWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOZHUHDSSURYHGH[FHSWIRU
WKH76&DJDUEDVHIURP2[RLGXVHGE\ODERUDWRU\
,WZDVVXJJHVWHGE\DSDUWLFLSDQWWRLQFOXGHLQ,62 DPD[LPXPVWRUDJHWLPHIRU
76&DJDUSODWHVLQFDVHWKH\DUHQRWIUHVKO\SUHSDUHGEHIRUHXVH7KLVODERUDWRU\H[SHULHQFHG
WKDW & SHUIULQJHQV FRORQLHV ZHUH ZKLWH RQ 76& SODWHV ZKLFK ZHUH SUHSDUHG FD GD\V
EHIRUHXVH
,QFXEDWLRQFRQGLWLRQVRIPHGLD
7KH LQFXEDWLRQ RI WKH ODFWRVH VXOILWH PHGLXP YDULHG EHWZHHQ SDUWLFLSDQWV GXH WR
LQGLVWLQFWQHVVRIWKHGHVFULSWLRQLQ,62,WZDVQRWFOHDUIURPWKHSURFHGXUHLQWKLV,62
ZKHWKHUWKHWXEHVQHHGHGWREHLQFXEDWHGXQGHUDHURELFRUDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQV3DUWRIWKH
SDUWLFLSDQWV LQFXEDWHG WKH WXEHV LQ D ZDWHU EDWK DV SUHVFULEHG LQ WKH ,62 ZKLOH RWKHUV
LQFXEDWHGWKHWXEHVLQDQDQDHURELFMDULQDQLQFXEDWRU,WLVQRWFOHDUZKHWKHUDZDWHUEDWKLV
1RWH2[RLGFKDQJHGWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKH76&EDVHVLQFH6XPPHULQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK,62 ODE
OHPFRSRZGHULVQRWLQWKHIRUPXODDQ\PRUH
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
REOLJDWRU\RUWKDWDQDHURELFLQFXEDWLRQLQDMDULVDOVRDOORZHGLQWKHFDVHWKDWWKHVSHFLILHG
WHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHRI&FDQEHDFKLHYHGLQWKHLQFXEDWRUXVHG)XUWKHUPRUHVRPH
ODERUDWRULHVKDGGLIILFXOWLHVZLWKUHDGLQJRIWKHJDVIRUPDWLRQDVLQVRPHFDVHVRQO\DVPDOO
DPRXQWRIJDVZDVIRUPHG8VLQJWXEHVRUERWWOHVPD\KDYHHIIHFWHGWKLV
,QFXEDWLRQSHULRGVDQGLQFXEDWRUWHPSHUDWXUHVZHUHQHDUO\DOODFFRUGLQJWRWKHFULWHULDLQWKH
623'HYLDWLRQVZHUHUHJDUGHGDVRIPLQLPDOLQIOXHQFHRQWKHILQDOUHVXOWVDQGWKHUHIRUHQR
UHVXOWVKDYHEHHQH[FOXGHGRQWKLVEDVLV
/DERUDWRU\WHPSHUDWXUH
7HPSHUDWXUH LQ WKH ODERUDWRU\ URRPV YDULHG IURP & WR & ZLWK QR PRUH WKDQ &
GHYLDWLRQRYHUWKHGLIIHUHQWGD\VRIDQDO\VLVZLWKLQRQHODERUDWRU\
8VHRISLSHWWHV
(DFK ODERUDWRU\ ZDV DOORZHG WR XVH WKH NLQG RI SLSHWWH WKH\ QRUPDOO\ XVH DOWKRXJK LW ZDV
VWDWHG LQ WKH 623 WKDW D PLFURSLSHWWH ZDV SUHIHUUHG )RU SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH GLOXWLRQV
ODERUDWRULHV XVHG JUDGXDWHG SLSHWWHV PDGH RI JODVV RU SODVWLF DQG ODERUDWRULHV XVHG D
PLFURSLSHWWH ZLWK IL[HG RU YDULDEOH YROXPH )RU LQRFXODWLQJ WKH SODWHV WKLV ZDV DQG
ODERUDWRULHVUHVSHFWLYHO\
6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIWULDOGDWD
6FUHHQLQJGDWD
7KHUHVXOWVIURPWKHFROODERUDWLYHWULDODUHVXPPDULVHGLQ$SSHQGL[IRUHDFKIRRGW\SHDQG
IRUERWKFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHVVHSDUDWHO\
%ODQN VDPSOHV ZHUH FKHFNHG RQ IDOVH SRVLWLYH WHVW UHVXOWV ,Q QRQH RI WKH EODQN FKHHVH
VDPSOHV&SHUIULQJHQVZDVLVRODWHG2QO\FRORQ\DWWKH±GLOXWLRQZDVLVRODWHGLQDEODQN
PHDWVDPSOH ODE0 7KLVZDVQRWUHJDUGHGDVDIDOVHSRVLWLYHWHVWUHVXOWRULQGLFDWLQJDQ
H[FKDQJH RI WZR VDPSOHV )RU WKH GULHG DQLPDO IHHG LQ RI WKH EODQN VDPSOHV
WRFRORQLHVRIWKH±GLOXWLRQZHUHFRQILUPHGDV&SHUIULQJHQV$VWKLVOHYHOFRUUHVSRQGV
WRWKHQDWXUDOOHYHORIFRQWDPLQDWLRQLQWKHGULHGDQLPDOIHHG FDFISJ QRVDPSOHVKDYH
EHHQ H[FKDQJHG DQG UHVXOWV FDQQRW EH VHHQ DV µIDOVH SRVLWLYH WHVW UHVXOWV¶ +RZHYHU LQ
ODERUDWRU\VDPSOH' EODQN DQGVDPSOH' ORZ WKHOHYHOVIRXQGZHUH[ FISJLQ
' DQG FISJ LQ ' 7KLV FDQ EH GXH WR H[FKDQJLQJ WKHVH VDPSOHV GXULQJ DQDO\VLV RU D
PLVWDNHLQFRGLQJWKHVDPSOHV+RZHYHUDVERWKSRVVLEOHH[SODQDWLRQVFDQQRWEHFRQILUPHG
E\ODERUDWRU\RUE\WKH5,90LWZDVGHFLGHGWRH[FOXGHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHWZRVDPSOHV
IURP IXUWKHU DQDO\VLV ([FHSW IRU VDPSOHV ' DQG ' LQ ODERUDWRU\ DOO RWKHU UHVXOWV
FRUUHVSRQGWRWKHVDPSOHOHYHOVPHDQLQJWKDWQRRWKHUVDPSOHVKDYHEHHQH[FKDQJHGRUWKDW
IDOVH SRVLWLYH WHVW UHVXOWV ZHUH REWDLQHG %ODQN VDPSOHV ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP VWDWLVWLFDO
DQDO\VHV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
'HYLDWLRQV IURP WKH SURWRFRO DUH OLVWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ ,I WKH GHYLDWLRQV FRXOG KDYH KDG D
VLJQLILFDQWLQIOXHQFHRQWKHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGWKHQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJGDWDZHUHH[FOXGHGIURP
IXUWKHUDQDO\VLV'HFLVLRQVRQWKLVZHUHDJUHHGXSRQLQDPHHWLQJZLWKDOOSDUWLFLSDQWV
,QODERUDWRU\PDQ\IDOVHQHJDWLYHWHVWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGXVLQJODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP7KH
ODERUDWRU\ LQGLFDWHG WR KDYH RQO\ OLWWOH H[SHULHQFH ZLWK WKLV PHGLXP 8VLQJ WKH 01 /*
PHGLD PRVWO\ SRVLWLYH FRQILUPDWLRQ UHVXOWV ZHUH REWDLQHG ,W ZDV DJUHHG XSRQ ZLWK
ODERUDWRU\DQGZLWKWKHSDUWQHUVRIWKLVSURMHFWWKDWWKHUHVXOWVIURPODERUDWRU\XVLQJ/6
PHGLXP ZHUH QRW UHIOHFWLQJ QRUPDO SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKLV PHGLXP EXW ZHUH D UHVXOW RI WKHLU
ODFNRIH[SHULHQFHZLWKWKLVPHGLXP7KHUHIRUHWKHUHVXOWVRIODERUDWRU\XVLQJ/6PHGLXP
ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP IXUWKHU DQDO\VLV WKHLU UHVXOWV XVLQJ 01 /* FRQILUPDWLRQ ZHUH QRW
UHMHFWHG
5HVXOWV RI WKH 'XQFDQ¶V 0XOWLSOH 5DQJH WHVW DUH VXPPDULVHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 6RPH UHVXOWV
FDPH RXW DV VXVSHFWHG RXWOLHUV +RZHYHU DV DQDO\VHV RI WKHVH WHVW UHVXOWV KDYH EHHQ
SHUIRUPHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH623WKHVHUHVXOWVZHUHUHJDUGHGDVQDWXUDOO\RFFXUULQJYDULDWLRQ
3HUIRUPDQFHZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\
H[FHSWIRUODERUDWRU\UHJDUGLQJFKHHVH 6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRQWKHYDULDWLRQEHWZHHQWKH
GXSOLFDWH VDPSOHV 7 JDYH PRUH GHYLDWLRQV IURP 3RLVVRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ )RU VRPH
GXSO
ODERUDWRULHVWKLVZDVHYHQPRUHWKDQ[3RLVVRQ
&RPSDULVRQRIFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
$OO FRQILUPDWLRQ UHVXOWV REWDLQHG E\ DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV WRJHWKHU H[FHSW IURP WKH QRQYDOLG
UHVXOWV PHQWLRQHG LQ $SSHQGL[ KDYH EHHQ VXPPDULVHG IRU HDFK VDPSOH W\SH LQ 7DEOH
ODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP DQG7DEOH PRWLOLW\QLWUDWH ODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
$OOPHGLDJDYHDFFHSWDEOHWHVWUHVXOWV*HQHUDOO\RIWKHFRORQLHVFRQILUPHGXVLQJ/6
PHGLXPZDVLGHQWLILHGDV&SHUIULQJHQV8VLQJWKH01 /*WHFKQLTXHWKLVSHUFHQWDJHZDV
7KLVZDVPDLQO\GXHWRWKHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXPDVWKLVPHGLXPVKRZHGDQXPEHU
RI IDOVH QHJDWLYH UHVXOWV ZKLOH ODFWRVHJHODWLQH PHGLXP JDYH QHDUO\ SRVLWLYH WHVW
UHVXOWV $Q )WHVW GDWD QRW SXEOLVKHG VKRZHG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR
FRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHV%RWKPHWKRGVDUHFXUUHQWO\XVHGLQODERUDWRULHVDQGWKHUHIRUHLWLV
GHVLUDEOH WR UHFRPPHQG WR ,62 WR LQFOXGH ERWK FRQILUPDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV /6 DV ZHOO DV
01 /* LQ,62OLNHLQ(1,QWKLVZD\WKHXVHUFDQFKRRVHWKHWHFKQLTXHWKH\
SUHIHUDQGLWZLOOJLYHDQKDUPRQLVDWLRQEHWZHHQ,62DQG(1+RZHYHULWKDVWR
EHNHSWLQPLQGWKDWGXULQJWKLVWULDORQO\WZRVWUDLQVKDYHEHHQWHVWHG)RUDFFHSWDQFHE\,62
WKDW ERWK FRQILUPDWLRQ PHWKRGV SHUIRUP HTXDOO\ LW PLJKW EH QHFHVVDU\ WR WHVW PRUH VWUDLQV
LQFOXGLQJQDWXUDOO\FRQWDPLQDWHGVDPSOHV
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
7DEOH &RQILUPDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQVFRORQLHVXVLQJODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
/DFWRVHVXOILWHWHFKQLTXH &KHHVH 0HDW 'ULHG 50 7RWDOV
DQLPDO
IHHG
1RRIFRORQLHVWHVWHG
LQ/6PHGLXP
3UHFLVLRQGDWDIURPWULDO
7KH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ OHYHOV DV IRXQG LQ WKLV WULDO FRUUHVSRQGHG WR WKH OHYHOV IRXQG LQ WKH
KRPRJHQHLW\VWXGLHV VHH 7KHUHSHDWDELOLW\YDOXHVUDQJHGIURPRQORJ VFDOH
RU RQ QRUPDO VFDOH ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW WKH PHWKRG SHUIRUPV YHU\ ZHOO XQGHU
UHSHDWDELOLW\ FRQGLWLRQV 8QGHU UHSURGXFLELOLW\ FRQGLWLRQV PRUH YDULDWLRQ ZDV IRXQG
5HSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXHVYDULHGIURPRQORJ VFDOHRURQQRUPDOVFDOH
7KH PHWKRG VKRZHG WKH EHVW SHUIRUPDQFH ZKHQ DQDO\VLQJ WKH 50V 7KLV ZDV DOUHDG\
H[SHFWHG DV WKLV PDWHULDO ZDV YHU\ KRPRJHQHRXV DQG FRQWDLQHG QR GLVWXUELQJ EDFNJURXQG
IORUD )XUWKHUPRUH WKH SURFHGXUH RI DQDO\]LQJ WKH 50V LV YHU\ VWULFW 7KH YDULDWLRQ LQ
SUHFLVLRQIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHWKUHHIRRGW\SHVPLJKWEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHLQPDWUL[
EXW FDQ DOVR EH FDXVHG E\ WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH ZD\ WKH VDPSOHV ZHUH DUWLILFLDOO\
FRQWDPLQDWHG7KHKLJKHVWUHSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXHZDVIRXQGIRUWKHORZOHYHOGULHGDQLPDOIHHG
VDPSOHV7KHKRPRJHQHLW\RIWKLVEDWFKRIVDPSOHVZDVMXVWDFFHSWDEOH VHH KRZHYHU
KRPRJHQHLW\ZDVWHVWHGRQO\RQWKHEDWFKRI+&03DQGQRWRQWKHILQDOHJJSRZGHUVDPSOHV
$Q H[SODQDWLRQ PLJKW EH WKDW DGGLQJ WKH +&03 WR WKH HJJ SRZGHU PD\ KDYH FDXVHG VRPH
H[WUD YDULDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VDPSOHV RU WKDW WKH EDFNJURXQG IORUD LQ WKH ILQDO VDPSOHV KDG
VRPHHIIHFWRQWKH&SHUIULQJHQVFRXQWVIRXQG
OHYHO DQG SUHFLVLRQ WKH YDOXHV H[SUHVV WKH UHSHDWDELOLW\ DQG UHSURGXFLELOLW\ UHODWLYH WR WKH
FRQWDPLQDWLRQ OHYHO 7KH PHWKRG ZDVFKDOOHQJHGZLWKFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHOVRYHUD UDQJH RI
FISJ)RUFKHHVHDQGGULHGDQLPDOIHHGWKHUHSHDWDELOLW\DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ZHUH
WKHKLJKHVWIRUWKHORZOHYHOFRQWDPLQDWLRQ)RUWKHPHDWVDPSOHVKRZHYHUQRWUHQGFRXOGEH
REVHUYHGEHWZHHQSUHFLVLRQDQGFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHO
7KH SUHFLVLRQ GDWD REWDLQHG XVLQJ /6 FRQILUPDWLRQ ZHUH YHU\ VLPLODU WR WKH SUHFLVLRQ GDWD
REWDLQHGZLWKWKH01 /*FRQILUPDWLRQ7RJHWKHUZLWKWKHUHVXOWVIURP7DEOHDQGLWFDQ
EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWERWKWHFKQLTXHVVKRZHTXDOSHUIRUPDQFH,WZLOOWKHUHIRUHEHVXJJHVWHGWR
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
LQFOXGHERWKPHWKRGVLQWKH,62VWDQGDUGOHDYLQJWKHFKRLFHDWWKHXVHUZKLFKRQHWR
SHUIRUP
1RFRQFOXVLRQVFDQEHPDGHWRZDUGVWKHHIIHFWRIVWUDLQW\SHRQWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHPHWKRG
DVRQO\WZRVWUDLQVZHUHXVHG PHDWGULHGDQG50ZHUHLQRFXODWHGZLWK'FKHHVHZLWK
74$ 7RGRVRPDQ\PRUHVWUDLQVVKRXOGKDYHEHHQWDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQ
7DEOH 3UHFLVLRQ YDOXHV RI ,62 DQG (1 FDOFXODWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR
SU(1,62 IRU HDFK VDPSOH W\SH FRQWDPLQDWLRQ OHYHO DQG FRQILUPDWLRQ
WHFKQLTXH
&21),50('&2817686,1*/$&726(68/),7(0(',80
6DPSOH /HYHO 1RRI 0HGLDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
&21),50('&2817686,1*027,/,7<1,75$7( /$&726(*(/$7,1(0(',80
6DPSOH /HYHO 1RRI 0HGLDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
$YHUDJH UHSHDWDELOLW\ DQG UHSURGXFLELOLW\ YDOXHV IRU HDFK IRRG W\SH ZHUH FDOFXODWHG DV WKH
DULWKPHWLFPHDQRIWKHYDOXHVREWDLQHGLQWKHWKUHHOHYHOV 7DEOH
/6FRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXH 01 /*FRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXH
6DPSOHW\SH U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
&RQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVWR,62&(1
7KHFRQFOXVLRQVIURPWKLVFROODERUDWLYHWULDODQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVWR,62DQG&(1DUH
7KHPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVLQIRRGVDQGDQLPDOIHHGLQJ
VWXIIVDVFXUUHQWO\ZULWWHQLQ,62 DQG(1 LVVDWLVIDFWRU\
7R LQFOXGH WKH SUHFLVLRQ GDWD DV IRXQG LQ WKLV WULDO IRU ERWK FRQILUPDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV
/6DQG01 /* LQWRWKH,62 VWDQGDUGDQGWKH(1 VWDQGDUG
IRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVLQIRRGVDQGDQLPDOIHHGLQJVWXIIV
7RLQFOXGHWKHSUHFLVLRQGDWDFDOFXODWHGXVLQJSU(1,62
7R LPSURYH WKH WH[W RI ,62 DQG (1 LQ WKH IROORZLQJ
SDUDJUDSKVDWWKHQH[WUHYLVLRQ
½ (JJ\RONIUHHWU\SWRVHVXOILWHF\FORVHULQHDJDULWLVVXJJHVWHGWRLQFOXGHLQ,62
D PD[LPXP VWRUDJH WLPH IRU WKH 76& SODWHV LQ FDVH WKH\ DUH SUHSDUHG LQ
DGYDQFH
½ /DFWRVHVXOILWH PHGLXP LW LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKLV PHGLXP VKRXOG RQO\ EH
GLVSHQVHGLQWRWHVWWXEHVDVERWWOHVGRQRWVHHPWRZRUN
½ &RQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHXVLQJWKH/DFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
HGLWRULDO 127(LQRI(1,WLVWKHUHIRUH127QHFHVVDU\WRHQVXUH
WKDW WKH EODFN FRORQLHV SLFNHGIURPWKHDJDUDUHSXUHEHIRUH LQRFXODWLRQ LQWR WKH
WKLRJO\FROODWHEURWKDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\LQWRWKHODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
RI,62DQGRI(1$FODULILFDWLRQZKHWKHUODFWRVH
VXOILWH PHGLXP QHHGV WR EH LQFXEDWHG DHURELFDOO\ LQ D ZDWHUEDWK RU ZKHWKHU
DQDHURELFLQFXEDWLRQLQDQLQFXEDWRUFDSDEOHRIKROGLQJWKHWHPSHUDWXUHDW
&LVDOVRDOORZHG
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
3DUWLFLSDQWVDQGDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
5HVSRQVLEOHSHUVRQRI(83URMHFW607&7
,GH)URLGPHQW*|UW](XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ %UXVVHOV %
'LUHFWRUDWH*pQpUDOH;,,&
UHVSRQVLEOHFRPPLVVLRQVFLHQWLILFRIILFHU
&/DKHOOHF$)66$'LUHFWLRQ*pQpUDOH 3DULV )
SURMHFWFRRUGLQDWRU
/&R[0$))&6/)RRG6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\ SDUWQHU <RUN 8.
.$0RRLMPDQ5,900*% SDUWQHU %LOWKRYHQ 1/
2UJDQLVDWLRQ&SHUIULQJHQVWULDO
.$0RRLMPDQ606FKXOWHQ5,900*% %LOWKRYHQ 1/
1-'1DJHONHUNH5,90,0$ VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV
3UHSDUDWLRQRIWHVWPDWHULDO
&KHHVH35ROOLHU&(&$/$,7,15$657$/ 3ROLJQ\ )
0HDW.&DSSV0$))&6/)RRG6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\ <RUN 8.
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHG(%HQVFKRS5,900*% %LOWKRYHQ 1/
3DUWLFLSDQWVSUHWULDO
+%HUJLV65XGHOOH$)66$/(53$& 0DLVRQV$OIRUW )
/&R[.&DSSV0$))&6/)RRG6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\ <RUN 8.
606FKXOWHQ(%HQVFKRS5,900*% %LOWKRYHQ 1/
3DUWLFLSDQWVFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
+$VSHUJHU9HWHULQlUPHGL]LQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW:LHQ :LHQ $
,QVWLWXWIU0LOFKK\JLHQHXQG0LOFKWHFKQRORJLH
.GH5HX'DLU\5HVHDUFK6WDWLRQ0LFURELRORJ\ 0HOOH %
/DERUDWRU\
(+HFN1HVWOp5HVHDUFK&HQWHU/DXVDQQH4XDOLW\ /DXVDQQH &+
DQG6DIHW\$VVXUDQFH'HSDUWPHQW
(%DUWHOW)HGHUDO,QVWLWXWHIRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQRI %HUOLQ '
&RQVXPHUVDQG9HWHULQDU\0HGLFLQH)RRG0LFURELRORJ\
64YLVW,QVWLWXWHRI)RRGVDIHW\DQG7R[LFRORJ\ 6RHERUJ '.
&$OODHUW/DERI0LFURELRORJ\RIWKH)RRG7HFKQRORJ\ /OHLGD (
'HSDUWPHQW
+%HUJLV65XGHOOH$)66$/(53$& 0DLVRQV$OIRUW )
7-RKDQVVRQ1DWLRQDO9HWHULQDU\DQG)RRG5HVHDUFK +HOVLQNL ),1
,QVWLWXW'HSDUWPHQWRI)RRG0LFURELRORJ\
0/DPELUL1DWLRQDO6FKRRORI3XEOLF+HDOWK%DFWHULRORJ\ $WKHQV *5
'HSDUWPHQW
'U0.QRGOVHGHU'U.)ULHGULFK0LOFKZLUWVFKDIWOLFKH .HPSWHQ '
8QWHUVXFKXQJVXQG9HUVXFKVDQVWDOW.HPSW
0/6WHFFKLQL'LSDUWLPHQWRGL6FLHQ]H'HJOL$OLPHQWL 8GLQH ,
9<RXQJ(+%3XEOLF$QDO\VWV/DERUDWRU\ 'XEOLQ ,5(
+6WHJHPDQ5,.,/7'/2 :DJHQLQJHQ 1/
606FKXOWHQ5,900*% %LOWKRYHQ 1/
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
'5REHUWV&HQWUDO3XEOLF+HDOWK/DERUDWRU\)RRG+\JLHQH /RQGRQ 8.
/DERUDWRU\
6+DOO8QLOHYHU5HVHDUFK&ROZRUWK/DERUDWRU\ %HGIRUG 8.
+%HFNHU/HKUVWXKOIU+\JLHQHXQG7HFKQRORJLHGHU0LOFK 0QFKHQ '
/XGZLJ0D[LPLOLDQV8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KHFROODERUDWLYHWULDOGHPDQGHGDORWRIWLPHDQGHIIRUWIURPHDFKSDUWLFLSDQW$OVRWKH
H[SHQVHVIRUWKHPHGLDDQGFDUU\LQJRXWWKHH[DPLQDWLRQVFRXOGXQIRUWXQDWHO\QRWEHFRYHUHG
7KH5,90DQGDOORWKHUSDUWQHUVLQWKLVSURMHFWDUHWKHUHIRUHH[WUHPHO\JUDWHIXOWRHDFK
SDUWLFLSDQWIRUDOOWKHZRUNWKH\KDYHGRQHLQSURGXFLQJSUHFLVLRQGDWDIRUWKH,62
PHWKRGDQGIRUKDYLQJDQDFWLYHUROHGXULQJWKHGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVLQWKHILQDOPHHWLQJ
7KDQN\RXYHU\PXFK
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
5HIHUHQFHV
>@ 6FKXOWHQ60%(%YDQGH/XVWJUDDI1-'1DJHONHUNH3+LQµW9HOG
³9DOLGDWLRQRI0LFURELRORJLFDO0HWKRGV(QXPHUDWLRQRI%DFLOOXVFHUHXVDFFRUGLQJWR
,62 VHFRQGHGLWLRQ ´1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH
(QYLURQPHQW 5,90 %LOWKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV5HSRUWQR
>@ 6FKXOWHQ603+LQµW9HOG1-'1DJHONHUNH66FRWWHU0/GH%X\VHU3
5ROOLHU&/DKHOOHF ³(YDOXDWLRQRIWKH,62VWDQGDUGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQ
RI%DFLOOXVFHUHXVLQIRRGV´,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI)RRG0LFURELRORJ\S
>@ 6FRWWHU6DQG/DQJWRQ6 ³(8SURMHFW607&79DOLGDWLRQRI
0LFURELRORJLFDO0HWKRGV'HWHFWLRQRI/LVWHULDPRQRF\WRJHQHVE\(1,62
3DUW)LQDOUHSRUW´0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)LVKHULHVDQG)RRG&HQWUDO6FLHQFH
/DERUDWRU\<RUN(QJODQG5HSRUWQR)'
>@ 6FRWWHU6DQG/DQJWRQ6 ³(8SURMHFW607&79DOLGDWLRQRI
0LFURELRORJLFDO0HWKRGV(QXPHUDWLRQRI/LVWHULDPRQRF\WRJHQHVE\(1,62
3DUW)LQDOUHSRUW´0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)LVKHULHVDQG)RRG&HQWUDO6FLHQFH
/DERUDWRU\<RUN(QJODQG5HSRUWQR)'
>@ %X\VHU0/GH%/RPEDUG ³(8SURMHFW607&79DOLGDWLRQRI
0LFURELRORJLFDO0HWKRGV(QXPHUDWLRQRIFRDJXODVHSRVLWLYHVWDSK\ORFRFFL 6DXUHXV
DQGRWKHUVSHFLHV E\(1,623DUWDQG3DUW 'UDIW)LQDO5HSRUW´
$JHQFH)UDQoDLVHGH6pFXULWp6DQLWDLUHGHV$OLPHQWV/DERUDWRLUH&HQWUDOG¶+\JLqQH
$OLPHQWDLUH
>@ +RUZLW]: ³,QWHUQDWLRQDO+DUPRQLVHGSURWRFROIRUWKH'HVLJQ&RQGXFWDQG
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI0HWKRG3HUIRUPDQFH6WXGLHV 7HFKQLFDOUHSRUW ´,83$&$2$&,62
3XUHDQG$SSOLHG&KHPLVWU\QRS
>@ /DQJWRQ6 WREHSXEOLVKHG 7LWOHDUWLFOHQRW\HWNQRZQ 0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH
)LVKHULHVDQG)RRG&HQWUDO6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\<RUN(QJODQG
>@ $QRQ\PRXV ,62VHFRQGHGLWLRQ0LFURELRORJ\RIIRRGDQGDQLPDO
IHHGLQJVWXIIV±+RUL]RQWDOPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV±
&RORQ\FRXQWWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ*HQHYD
6ZLW]HUODQG
>@ $QRQ\PRXV (10LFURELRORJ\RIIRRGDQGDQLPDOIHHGLQJVWXIIV±
+RUL]RQWDOPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV±&RORQ\FRXQW
WHFKQLTXH ,62PRGLILHG (XURSHDQ&RPPLWWHHIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ
%UXVVHOV%HOJLXP
>@ ,QµW9HOG3+1*:0YDQ6WULMS/RFNHIHHU$++DYHODDUDQG($0DLHU
7KHFHUWLILFDWLRQRIDUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH,62PHWKRG
IRUWKHGHWHFWLRQRI6DOPRQHOOD-$SSO%DFWHULRO
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
,QVWLWXWH,QFS
>@ 5HQWHQDDU,0)0LFUR9DODFKDOOHQJLQJ(XUHNDSURMHFW)RRG&RQWUROYRO
S
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ 0DLOLQJOLVW
'LUHFWRU*HQHUDO3XEOLF+HDOWKWKH1HWKHUODQGV 9:6
0UV,GH)URLGPHQW*|UW](XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ(8'*;,,60 7%UXVVHOV
3UHVLGHQWRIWKH&RXQFLORI+HDOWKWKH1HWKHUODQGV
0UV&/DKHOOHF$)66$3DULVFR|UGLQDWRU(8SURMHFW607&7
0UV35ROOLHU&(&$/$,73ROLJQ\)UDQFH
0U5&KHYHQQHPHQW(1,/%,23ROLJQ\)UDQFH
0UV5/HXVFKQHU0$))&6/<RUN8.
0U6/DQJWRQ0$))&6/<RUN8.
0U:$QGUHZV$2$&$UOLQJWRQ86$
0UV&*XLVVp6HFUHWDULDW,627&6&$)1253DULV)UDQFH
0U3LQµW9HOG,QVSHFWRUDWHIRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQ'HQ%RVFKWKH1HWKHUODQGV
3DUWLFLSDQWVFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
'XWFK1DWLRQDO/LEUDU\IRU3XEOLFDWLRQVDQG%LEOLRJUDSK\
0U+3RQW%RDUGRI'LUHFWRUV5,90
0U'.URPKRXW'LUHFWRU6HFWRU3XEOLF+HDOWK5HVHDUFK
0U$0+HQNHQKHDG0LFURELRORJLFDO/DERUDWRU\IRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQ5,90
0U)YDQ/HXVGHQ0LFURELRORJLFDO/DERUDWRU\IRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQ5,90
$XWKRUV
6%',QIRUPDWLRQDQG3XEOLF5HODWLRQV
5HJLVWUDWLRQDJHQF\IRU6FLHQWLILF5HSRUWV
/LEUDU\5,90
6DOHVGHSDUWPHQWRI5,90UHSRUWV
6SDUHFRSLHV
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
$SSHQGL[ *HQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
(YDOXDWLRQRIWKHKRUL]RQWDOPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXP
SHUIULQJHQV(860 7SURMHFWQR607&7
,1752'8&7,21
7KLVJHQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHVWDQGDUGRSHUDWLQJSURFHGXUH 623 DQGWHVWUHSRUW
GHVFULEHV WKH SURFHGXUH IRU WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH PHWKRG IRU WKH HQXPHUDWLRQ RI &ORVWULGLXP
SHUIULQJHQV DV GHVFULEHG LQ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU 6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ ,62 PHWKRG
DQG LQ WKH GUDIW (XURSHDQ 6WDQGDUG SU(1 7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH WLPH
VFKHGXOH623DQGWHVWUHSRUWLVOLPLWHGWRWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH&SHUIULQJHQVPHWKRGFDUULHGRXWLQ
WKH IUDPHZRUN RI D 6WDQGDUGV 0HDVXUHPHQW DQG 7HVWLQJ SURMHFW (8 60 7 SURMHFW QR 607
&7 7KH UHVXOWV DUH LQWHQGHG XOWLPDWHO\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ E\ WKH &HQWUH (XURSLHQQH GH
1RUPDOL]DWLRQ &(1 LQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ&(1PHWKRGV
2%-(&7,9(6
7RGHWHUPLQHWKHSUHFLVLRQLQWHUPVRIUHSHDWDELOLW\ U DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\ 5 RIWKH,62PHWKRGLQ
UHODWLRQWRWKHW\SHRIIRRGDQGRUWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI&SHUIULQJHQV
7RHYDOXDWHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHFRQILUPDWLRQSURFHGXUHVDVGHFVULEHGLQ,62 DQGLQ
SU(1
287/,1(2)7+(75,$/
:LWKLQDSUHVFULEHGSHULRG VHHWLPHVFKHGXOH WKHYDULRXVW\SHVRIIRRGVDPSOHVPXVWEHH[DPLQHG
%RWKUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOVPXVWEHH[DPLQHGFRQFXUUHQWO\ZLWKRQHRIWKHIRRGW\SHV7KHVDPSOHVZLOO
EHHQXPHUDWHGDIWHUUHFRQVWLWXWLRQDQGVHULDOGLOXWLRQRQWRHJJ\RONIUHHWU\SWRVHVXOILWHF\FORVHULQH
DJDU 6& 7\SLFDO FRORQLHV ZLOO EH FRQILUPHG DV & SHUIULQJHQV XVLQJ WKH FRQILUPDWLRQ SURFHGXUH
DFFRUGLQJWR,62 DQGSU(1 )RUGHWDLOVVHHWKH6WDQGDUG2SHUDWLQJ3URFHGXUH
623 $OOGDWDPXVWEHUHSRUWHGWRWKHRUJDQLVLQJODERUDWRU\RQWKHWHVWUHSRUWVXSSOLHG)D[WKHUHSRUW
DQGVHQGWKHRULJLQDOWHVWUHSRUWE\PDLO5HWDLQDFRS\WR\RXUVHOI
7KH SUDFWLFDO ZRUN PD\ EH GLYLGHG DPRQJ PRUH WKDQ RQH WHFKQLFLDQ +RZHYHU IRU UHDVRQ RI
UHSHDWDELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVGLIIHUHQWWHFKQLFLDQVPD\H[DPLQHGLIIHUHQWIRRGW\SHVEXWLWLV127
DOORZHGWRKDYHPRUHWKDQRQHWHFKQLFLDQZRUNLQJRQWKHVDPHIRRGW\SH
7(670$7(5,$/6
7KUHH W\SHV RI VLPXODWHG IRRG VDPSOHV FKHHVH VDPSOHV PHDW VDPSOHV DQG GULHG DQLPDO IHHG
VDPSOHV DQGDUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDO 50 ZLOOEHH[DPLQHG)RUHDFKW\SHRIIRRGVDPSOHVZLOOEH
H[DPLQHGDVZHOODVWZRUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV VDPSOHVLQWRWDO
&KHHVHVDPSOHVDUHSUHSDUHGE\WKH&(&$/$,7 3ROLJQ\)UDQFH PHDWVDPSOHVE\WKH0LQLVWU\RI
$JULFXOWXUH)LVKHULHVDQG)RRGV&HQWUDO6FLHQFH/DERUDWRU\ 0$))&6/<RUN8QLWHG.LQJGRP
GULHG DQLPDO IHHG VDPSOHV E\ WKH 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW 5,90
%LOWKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV DQGWKH50VE\WKH)RXQGDWLRQIRUWKH$GYDQFHPHQWRI3XEOLF+HDOWK
DQG(QYLURPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ 690%LOWKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
7KHFKHHVHVDPSOHVDUHVHQWE\&(&$/$,7E\VSHFLDOGHOLYHU\DQGPXVWEHH[DPLQHGZLWKLQWZRGD\V
DIWHUVKLSPHQW VHHWLPHVFKHGXOH 7KHRWKHUVDPSOHV PHDWGULHGDQLPDOIHHGDQG50 ZLOOEHVHQWE\
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
WKH 5,90 E\ '+/ GHOLYHU\ VHUYLFHV $W UHFHLYDO FKHFN WKH SDUFHOV IRU FRPSOHWHQHVV FKHFN WKH
WHPSHUDWXUHFRQWUROGHYLFHVDQGUHSRUWWKLVRQWKHWHVWUHSRUW
&+5212/2*,&$/'(6&5,37,212)7+(75,$/
'DWH $FWLRQ
'HFHPEHU 0DLOLQJRI623DQGWHVWUHSRUWWRSDUWLFLSDQWV
-DQXDU\ 0HDWVDPSOHVGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVDQGUHIHUHQFHVFDSVXOHV
GLVSDWFKHGE\5,90
8SRQDUULYDOQRWHGDWHWHPSHUDWXUHFRQGLWLRQDQGUHFRUGRQWHVWUHSRUW
6WRUHPHDWVDPSOHVDW&±&XQWLOH[DPLQDWLRQ
6WRUHGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVDQGUHIHUHQFHVFDSVXOHVDW-&
&XQWLOH[DPLQDWLRQ
-DQXDU\ &RPPHQFHH[DPLQDWLRQRIPHDWVDPSOHV
-DQXDU\ &RPPHQFHH[DPLQDWLRQRIGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV
)HEUXDU\ &KHHVHVDPSOHVGLVSDWFKHGE\&(&$/$,7
8SRQDUULYDOQRWHGDWHWHPSHUDWXUHFRQGLWLRQDQGUHFRUGRQWHVWUHSRUW
6WRUHFKHHVHVDPSOHVDW&±&XQWLOH[DPLQDWLRQ
)HEUXDU\ &RPPHQFHH[DPLQDWLRQRIFKHHVHVDPSOHV
)HEUXDU\ &ORVLQJGDWHIRUUHFHLSWUHVXOWVE\5,90IRUDQDO\VLV)D[WKHUHSRUWDQG
VHQGWKHRULJLQDOWHVWUHSRUWE\PDLO5HWDLQDFRS\WR\RXUVHOI
2FW1RY 'LVFXVVLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVZLWKFRQWUDFWRUVDQGSDUWLFLSDQWV
1RWHWKHUHIHUHQFHVFDSVXOHVPXVWEHH[DPLQHGFRQFXUUHQWO\ZLWKDQ\RIWKHIRRGW\SHVDQGLV
DWWKHGLVFUHWLRQRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQW
)RUDQ\LQIRUPDWLRQFRQFHUQLQJWKHVWXG\FRQWDFW
6DVNLD6FKXOWHQ 7HOHSKRQH(PDLO6DVNLD6FKXOWHQ#ULYPQO
.LUVWHQ0RRLMPDQ 7HOHSKRQH(PDLO.LUVWHQ0RRLMPDQ#VYPULYPQO
1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW 5,90
0LFURELRORJLFDO/DERUDWRU\IRU+HDOWK3URWHFWLRQ
SE
32%R[
%$%LOWKRYHQ
7KH1HWKHUODQGV
)D[
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
6&23($1'),(/'2)$33/,&$7,21
7KLVSDUWRIWKHVWDQGDUGRSHUDWLQJSURFHGXUH 623 GHVFULEHVWKHSURFHGXUHIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQRI
WKH PHWKRG IRU WKH HQXPHUDWLRQ RI &ORVWULGLXP SHUIULQJHQV DV GHVFULEHG LQ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGL]DWLRQ ,62 PHWKRG,62VHFRQGHGLWLRQ)RUFRQILUPDWLRQ
RI VXVSHFWHG FRORQLHV ERWK /DFWRVH VXOILWH /6 PHGLXP ,62 DV ZHOO DV D
FRPELQDWLRQ RI PRWLOLW\QLWUDWH DQG ODFWRVHJHODWLQH PHGLXP ,62 ZLOO EH HYDOXDWHG
7KLVEHFDXVHLQWKHQHZ(XURSHDQ6WDQGDUG SU(1 DFKRLFHEHWZHHQERWKPHWKRGVLV
DOORZHG 7KUHH W\SHV RI VLPXODWHG IRRG VDPSOHV DQG D UHIHUHQFH PDWHULDO ZLOO EH H[DPLQHG WR
GHWHUPLQHWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHPHWKRG
1250$7,9(5()(5(1&(6
,620LFURELRORJ\RI IRRG DQG DQLPDO IHHGLQJ VWXIIV +RUL]RQWDO PHWKRG IRU WKH
HQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV&RORQ\FRXQWWHFKQLTXH
SU(1 ILQDO GUDIW 0LFURELRORJ\ RI IRRG DQG DQLPDO IHHGLQJ VWXIIV +RUL]RQWDO
PHWKRG IRU HQXPHUDWLRQ RI &ORVWULGLXP SHUIULQJHQV &RORQ\ FRXQW WHFKQLTXH ,62
PRGLILHG
,62 0LFURELRORJ\ *HQHUDO JXLGDQFH IRU WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI GLOXWLRQV IRU
PLFURELRORJLFDOH[DPLQDWLRQ
,62 0LFURELRORJ\ RI IRRG DQG DQLPDO IHHGLQJ VWXIIV *HQHUDO UXOHV IRU
PLFURELRORJLFDOH[DPLQDWLRQV
'(),1,7,216
)RUWKHSXUSRVHRIWKLV623WKHIROORZLQJGHILQLWLRQVDSSO\
&ORVWULGLXP SHUIULQJHQV EDFWHULD WKDW IRUP W\SLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLF FRORQLHV VXUURXQGHG E\ D
EODFN KDOR LQ WKH VSHFLILHG VHOHFWLYH PHGLXP DQG ZKLFK JLYH SRVLWLYH FRQILUPDWRU\ UHDFWLRQV
ZKHQWKHWHVWLVFDUULHGRXWE\WKHPHWKRGVSHFLILHGLQWKLV623
(QXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHQXPEHURIYLDEOHDQGFRQILUPHG
&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVEDFWHULDSHUPLOOLOLWUHRUSHUJUDPRIVDPSOHZKHQWKHWHVWLVFDUULHGRXW
E\WKHPHWKRGVSHFLILHGLQWKLV623
5HIHUHQFH PDWHULDO 50 D JHODWLQ FDSVXOH FRQWDLQLQJ FD J RI DUWLILFLDOO\ FRQWDPLQDWHG
VSUD\GULHGPLON
35,1&,3/(
7KUHHW\SHVRI VLPXODWHG IRRGVDPSOHV FKHHVHPHDWDQG GULHG DQLPDO IHHG DQG 50V ZLOO EH
SUHWUHDWHGDFFRUGLQJWRDVWDQGDUGL]HGSURFHGXUHWRREWDLQDQLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQ3HWULGLVKHVZLOO
EHLQRFXODWHGZLWKPORIWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVDQGVHULDOGLOXWLRQVDQGPL[HG ZLWK HJJ\RON
IUHHWU\SWRVHVXOILWHF\FORVHULQH 6& DJDU SRXUSODWHWHFKQLTXH $IWHUDGGLQJDQRYHUOD\RIWKH
VDPHPHGLXPSODWHVDUHLQFXEDWHGDQDHURELFDOO\IRUKDW&7\SLFDOFRORQLHVZLOO
EH VXEPLWWHG WR WKH FRQILUPDWLRQ WHVWV )RU HDFK W\SH RI IRRG VDPSOHV ZLOO EH H[DPLQHG LQ
DGGLWLRQWR50V
127( )RU UHDVRQ RI UHSHDWDELOLW\ FRQGLWLRQV GLIIHUHQW WHFKQLFLDQV PD\ H[DPLQH GLIIHUHQW
IRRG W\SHV EXW LW LV 127 DOORZHG WR KDYH PRUH WKDQ RQH WHFKQLFLDQ ZRUNLQJ RQ WKH VDPH
IRRGW\SH
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
',/8(176&8/785(0(',$$1'5($*(176
,WLVUHFRPPHQGHGWKDWFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLDDUHXVHGZKHQHYHUSRVVLEOH)RU
WKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHVHPHGLDWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU VLQVWUXFWLRQVVKRXOGEHIROORZHGFDUHIXOO\1RWH
WKHPDQXIDFWXUHU VQDPHFRGHQXPEHUDQGEDWFKQXPEHURIWKHPHGLDXVHGRQWKHWHVWUHSRUW,I
WKHPHGLDDUHSUHSDUHGIURPLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWVQRWHWKHLQJUHGLHQWVDQGWKHLUFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ
DQDQQH[RQWKHWHVWUHSRUW
3HSWRQHVDOWVROXWLRQ
3HSWRQH J
6RGLXPFKORULGH 1D&O J
:DWHU PO
:HLJKVXIILFLHQWLQJUHGLHQWVWRSUHSDUHFDOVROXWLRQ'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVLQWKHZDWHULI
QHFHVVDU\E\KHDWLQJZLWKIUHTXHQWVWLUULQJ$GMXVWWKHS+LIQHFHVVDU\VRWKDWDIWHUVWHULOL]DWLRQLW
LV 7UDQVIHU WKH VROXWLRQ WR VFUHZ FDSSHG ERWWOHV 6WHULOL]H E\ DXWRFODYLQJ DW
& IRU PLQXWHV &RRO DQG VWRUH DW & IRU DW PD[ PRQWKV 7KH SHSWRQHVDOW
VROXWLRQLVXVHGWRSUHSDUHWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVRIWKHPHDWDQGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV DWOHDVW
SRUWLRQVRIPODUHQHHGHG IRUWKHUHFRQVWLWXWLRQRIWKH50V WZRWLPHVPOLVQHHGHG DQGIRU
WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH VHULDO GLOXWLRQV )RU WKH VHULDO GLOXWLRQV WUDQVIHU WKH SHSWRQHVDOW VROXWLRQ LQ
TXDQWLWLHVRIPOPOWRVWHULOHWXEHV DWOHDVWWXEHVDUHQHHGHG
6RGLXPFLWUDWHVROXWLRQ
%XIIHUHG3HSWRQHZDWHU
3HSWRQH J
6RGLXPFKORULGH 1D&O J
'LVRGLXP SKRVSKDWH GRGHFDK\GUDWH J
1D +32 + 2
:DWHU PO
:HLJKVXIILFLHQWPHGLXPWRSUHSDUHFDPOVROXWLRQ'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWLQWKHZDWHUE\
KHDWLQJDW&ZLWKIUHTXHQWVWLUULQJ$GMXVWWKHS+LIQHFHVVDU\VRWKDWDIWHUVWHULOL]DWLRQLW
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
%DVHPHGLXP
7U\SWRVH D
J
6R\WRQH D
J
<HDVWH[WUDFW J
'LVRGLXP GLVXOILWH 1D 6 2
J
DQK\GURXV
$PPRQLXPLURQ ,,, FLWUDWH E
J
$JDU JWRJ F
:DWHU PO
D 7KHQDPHVWU\SWRVHDQGVR\WRQHDUHXVHGDWSUHVHQWRQO\E\
FHUWDLQ SURGXFHUV RI PHGLD $Q\ RWKHU SDQFUHDWLF FDVHLQ RU
VR\EHDQGLJHVWJLYLQJFRPSDUDEOHUHVXOWVPD\EHXVHG
E 7KLVUHDJHQWVKRXOGFRQWDLQDWOHDVW PP RILURQ
F 'HSHQGLQJRQWKHJHOVWUHQJKRIWKHDJDU
:HLJKRXWVXIILFLHQWDPRXQWVRIEDVHPHGLXPWRSUHSDUHDWOHDVWORIFRPSOHWHPHGLXP HQRXJK
WRSUHSDUHFDSODWHVRYHUOD\HULQFOXGHG 'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVLQWKHZDWHUE\ERLOLQJ
$GMXVWWKHS+VRWKDWDIWHUVWHULOL]DWLRQLWZLOOEHDW&'LVSHQVHWKHEDVHLQWRIODVNV
RUERWWOHVRIDSSURSULDWHFDSDFLW\6WHULOL]HIRUPLQDW &6WRUHDW &IRUQRW
PRUHWKDQZHHNV
1%)RUFRQILUPDWLRQZLWKWKHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXPDQGWKHODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXPLWPD\
EHQHFHVVDU\WRSUHSDUHGLVKHVRI6&DJDUEDVHPHGLXP)RUWKLVSXUSRVHWUDQVIHUSRUWLRQVRI
DERXWPORIWKHEDVHPHOWHGDQGFRROHGWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\& ZDWHUEDWK LQWR3HWUL
GLVKHVDQGDOORZWRVROLGLI\'U\WKHSODWHVLPPHGLDWHO\EHIRUHXVH
'&\FORVHULQHVROXWLRQ
'F\FORVHULQH J
D
:DWHU PO
D 8VHZKLWHFU\VWDOOLQHSRZGHURQO\
'LVVROYHWKH'F\FORVHULQHLQWKHZDWHUDQGVWHULOL]HWKHVROXWLRQE\ILOWUDWLRQWKURXJKDILOWHUZLWK
PSRUHVL]H6WRUHDW &'LVFDUGXQXVHGVROXWLRQVZHHNVDIWHUSUHSDUDWLRQ
&RPSOHWHPHGLXP
(Q]\PDWLFGLJHVWRIFDVHLQ J
/&\VWHLQH J
'*OXFRVH J
<HDVWH[WUDFW J
6RGLXPFKORULGH J
6RGLXPWKLRJO\FROODWH PHUFDSWRDFHWDWH J
$JDU JWRJ
D
5HVD]XULQ J
:DWHU PO
D 'HSHQGLQJRQWKHJHOVWUHQJWKRIWKHDJDU
%DVHPHGLXP
(Q]\PDWLFGLJHVWRIFDVHLQ J
<HDVWH[WUDFW J
6RGLXPFKORULGH J
/DFWRVH J
/F\VWHLQHK\GURFKORULGH J
:DWHU PO
3UHSDUHDVXIILFLHQWDPRXQWRIEDVHPHGLXPWRSUHSDUHDWOHDVWORIFRPSOHWHPHGLXP HQRXJK
WRSUHSDUHFDWXEHV 'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVLQWKHZDWHUE\ERLOLQJ LIQHFHVVDU\ $GMXVW
WKHS+VRWKDWDIWHUVWHULOL]DWLRQLWZLOOEHDW&'LVSHQVHPOSRUWLRQVLQWRWHVWWXEHV
RUERWWOHVZLWKLQYHUWHG'XUKDPWXEHV DQGVWHULOL]HDW &IRUPLQ7KHPHGLXP
PD\EHVWRUHGDW &IRUDWPD[ZHHNV
'LVRGLXPGLVXOILWHDQK\GURXVVROXWLRQ
'LVRGLXP GLVXOILWH 1D 6 2
J
DQK\GURXV
:DWHU PO
'LVVROYHWKHGLVRGLXPGLVXOILWHLQWKHZDWHUDQGVWHULOL]HWKHVROXWLRQE\ILOWUDWLRQWKURXJKDILOWHU
ZLWK PSRUHVL]H8VHWKHVROXWLRQZLWKLQRQHGD\
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
&RPSOHWHPHGLXP
,IWKHEDVHPHGLXPLVQRWXVHGRQWKHGD\RIWKHSUHSDUDWLRQWKHQGHDHUDWHWKHPHGLXPEHIRUH
DGGLQJWKHVXSSOHPHQWV DQG WRWKHEDVHPHGLXP,IWKHEDVHPHGLXPLVLQVFUHZFDS
ERWWOHVORRVHQWKHFDSVEHIRUHKHDWLQJDQGWLJKWHQWKHPEHIRUHFRROLQJ
$IWHUFRROLQJWR&DGGPORIWKHGLVRGLXPGLVXOILWHVROXWLRQ DQGPORIWKH
DPPRQLXPLURQ ,,, FLWUDWHVROXWLRQ WRHDFKPORIEDVH
3HWRQH J
%HHIH[WUDFW J
*DODFWRVH J
*O\FHURO J
3RWDVVLXPQLWUDWH .12 J
'LVRGLXPK\GURJHQRUWKRSKRVSKDWH 1D +32 J
$JDU JWRJ
D
:DWHU PO
D 'HSHQGLQJRQWKHJHOVWUHQJWKRIWKHDJDU
:HLJKVXIILFLHQWDPRXQWVRIHDFKLQJUHGLsQWWRSUHSDUHDWOHDVWORIPHGLXP HQRXJKWRSUHSDUH
FDWXEHV 'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVLQWKHZDWHUE\ERLOLQJ$GMXVWWKHS+VRWKDWDIWHU
VWHULOL]DWLRQLWZLOOEHDW&7UDQVIHUWKHPHGLXPWRFXOWXUHWXEHVLQPOTXDQWLWLHV
DQGVWHULOL]HDW &IRUPLQ,IQRWXVHGWKHVDPHGD\VWRUHDW &'LVFDUG
XQXVHGPHGLXPZHHNVDIWHUSUHSDUDWLRQ3ULRUWRXVHKHDWLQERLOLQJZDWHURUIORZLQJVWHDPIRU
PLQ&RROUDSLGO\WRWKHLQFXEDWLRQWHPSHUDWXUH &
$16$ J
YY DFHWLFDFLGVROXWLRQ PO
'LVVROYHWKH$16$LQWKHDFHWLFDFLGVROXWLRQ)LOWHUWKURXJKDILOWHUSDSHU6WRUHWKH
ILOWUDWHLQDZHOOVWRSSHUHGEURZQERWWOH SUHIHUDEO\ZLWKDEXOEW\SHGURSSHU DW &
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
6XOIDQLOLFDFLGVROXWLRQ
VXOIDQLOLFDFLG J
YY DFHWLFDFLGVROXWLRQ PO
'LVVROYHWKHVXOIDQLOLFDFLGLQWKHDFHWLFDFLGVROXWLRQ)LOWHUWKURXJKDILOWHUSDSHU6WRUHWKH
ILOWUDWHLQDZHOOVWRSSHUHGEURZQERWWOH SUHIHUDEO\ZLWKDEXOEW\SHGURSSHU DW &
&RPSOHWHUHDJHQW
0L[HTXDOYROXPHVRIWKHWZRVROXWLRQV DQG MXVWEHIRUHXVH'LVFDUGXQXVHGUHDJHQW
LPPHGLDWHO\
7U\SWRVH D
J
<HDVWH[WUDFW J
/DFWRVH J
*HODWLQH J
3KHQROUHG J
:DWHU PO
D 7KHQDPHWU\SWRVHLVXVHGDWSUHVHQWRQO\E\FHUWDLQ
SURGXFHUVRIPHGLD$Q\RWKHUSDQFUHDWLFFDVHLQGLJHVW
JLYLQJFRPSDUDEOHUHVXOWVPD\EHXVHG
:HLJKVXIILFLHQWPHGLXPWRSUHSDUHDWOHDVWORIPHGLXP HQRXJKWRSUHSDUHFDWXEHV
'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVH[FHSWWKHODFWRVHDQGSKHQROUHGLQWKHZDWHU$GMXVWWKHS+VRWKDW
DIWHUVWHULOL]DWLRQLWZLOOEHDW&$GGWKHODFWRVHDQGSKHQROUHGGLVSHQVHPOSRUWLRQV
LQWRWHVWWXEHVDQGVWHULOL]HDW &IRUPLQ,IQRWXVHGWKHVDPHGD\VWRUHDW &
-XVWSULRUWRXVHKHDWLQERLOLQJZDWHURUIORZLQJVWHDPIRUPLQ&RROUDSLGO\WRWKHLQFXEDWLRQ
WHPSHUDWXUH & 'LVFDUGXQXVHGPHGLXPZHHNVDIWHUSUHSDUDWLRQ
$33$5$786$1'*/$66:$5(
8VXDOPLFURELRORJLFDOODERUDWRU\HTXLSPHQW VHH,62 DQGLQSDUWLFXODU
7RWDOGHOLYHU\ JUDGXDWHG SLSHWWHV RI QRPLQDO FDSDFLWLHV PO DQG PO JUDGXDWHG LQ PO
DQGPOUHVSHFWLYHO\RUPLFURSLSHWWHVZLWKFDSDFLW\RIPODQGILOWHUWLSV
3HWULGLVKHVPDGHRIJODVVRUSODVWLFPDWHULDORIGLDPHWHUPPWRPP
:DWHUEDWKRUVLPLOLDUDSSDUDWXVFDSDEOHRIEHLQJPDLQWDLQHGDW &
:DWHUEDWKRUVLPLOLDUDSSDUDWXVFDSDEOHRIEHLQJPDLQWDLQHGDW &
:DWHUEDWKRUVLPLOLDUDSSDUDWXVFDSDEOHRIEHLQJPDLQWDLQHGDW &
5XEEHUEXOEVIRUXVHZLWKWKHJUDGXDWHGSLSHWWHVIRUGLVWULEXWLQJWKHFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHQLWULWH
GHWHFWLRQUHDJHQW
352&('85(
3UHWUHDWPHQWDQGSUHSDUDWLRQRILQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQ
(DFK YLDO FRQWDLQV H[DFWO\ J RI GULHG DQLPDO IHHG /DEHO VWHULOH VWRPDFKHU EDJV ZLWK WKH
VDPSOHFRGH '' (PSW\WKHYLDOVLQWRWKHVWRPDFKHUEDJZLWKFRUUHVSRQGLQJVDPSOHFRGH
7DNHPOPOSHSWRQHVDOWVROXWLRQ DWURRPWHPSHUDWXUH$GGFDPOWRWKHHPSW\YLDO
UHSODFH WKH OLG DQG LQYHUW VHYHUDO WLPHV WR ULQVH WKRURXJKO\ DQG DGG WR WKH VWRPDFKHU EDJ ZLWK
FRUUHVSRQGLQJVDPSOHFRGH5HSHDWWKHULQVLQJRIWKHYLDORQHPRUHWLPH3RXUWKHUHPDLQLQJRIWKH
SHSWRQHVDOWVROXWLRQLQWRWKHVWRPDFKHUEDJ0L[WKHFRQWHQWVIRUPLQXWHDWQRUPDOVSHHGXVLQJD
VWRPDFKHU5HSHDWIRUWKHRWKHUVDPSOHV/HDYHWKHVWRPDFKHUEDJVVWDQGLQJIRUPLQXWHVVR
WKDWWKHODUJHSDUWLFOHVFDQVHWWOHEHIRUHSUHSDULQJIXUWKHUGLOXWLRQVDVGHVFULEHGLQ
1RWHWKHWLPHRIWKHVWDUWRIWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
PL[LQJ IRUWKHPLQLPXPOHQJWKRIWLPH
6HULDOGLOXWLRQDQGLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
7KHVXVSHQVLRQVREWDLQHGIURPVDPSOHV&&00DQG''DUHWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH GLOXWLRQ )RU SUHSDULQJ VHULDO GLOXWLRQV PO PO RI WKH LQLWLDO
VXVSHQVLRQ LV WUDQVIHUUHG WR D WXEH FRQWDLQLQJ PO PO SHSWRQHVDOW VROXWLRQ DQG LV
PL[HG WKRURXJKO\ RQ D ZKLUOPL[HU IRU VHFRQGV WR REWDLQ WKH GLOXWLRQ 5HSHDW WKLV
SURFHGXUHWRREWDLQDGLOXWLRQVHULHVXSWLOOGLOXWLRQIRUHDFKVDPSOH,WLVUHFRPPHQGHGWRXVH
DPLFURSLSHWWHZLWKILOWHUWLSVDQGWRULQVHWKH SLSHWWLS EHIRUHXVH
/DEHOHPSW\3HWULGLVKHVZLWKVDPSOHLGHQWLILFDWLRQQXPEHU IRUH[DPSOH& UHSOLFDWH DDQGE
DQGGLOXWLRQRIWKHVDPSOH DQG 7UDQVIHUE\PHDQVRIDVWHULOHSLSHWWHPO
PORIHDFKRIWKHGLOXWLRQVWLOOWRHDFKRIWZRSHWULGLVKHV,WLVUHFRPPHQGHGWRXVHD
PLFURSLSHWWHZLWKILOWHUWLSDQGWRULQVHWKH SLSHWWLS EHIRUHXVH3RXUPOWRPORIWKH6&DJDU
PDLQWDLQHG DW & LQ WKH ZDWHU EDWK LQWR HDFK GLVK DQG PL[ ZHOO ZLWK WKH
LQRFXOXPE\JHQWO\URWDWLQJHDFKGLVK3URFHHGLQWKHVDPHZD\IRUWKHRWKHUVDPSOHV:KHQWKH
PHGLXPKDVVROLGLILHGDGGDQRYHUOD\HURIPORIWKHVDPH6&DJDU$OORZWRVROLGLI\
1RWH WKH NLQG RI SLSHWWH XVHG RQ WKH WHVW UHSRUW 1RWH WKH WLPH RI WKH HQG RI WKH LQRFXODWLRQ
SURFHGXUH7KHWLPHEHWZHHQWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVDQGDGGLQJWKHDJDUWRWKH
LQRFXOXPVKRXOGQRWH[FHHGPLQXWHV
7KH UHFRQVWLWXWHG UHIHUHQFH PDWHULDO LV UHJDUGHG DV WKH GLOXWLRQ 3UHSDUH D GLOXWLRQ E\
WUDQVIHUULQJPOPORIWKHLQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQWRDWXEHFRQWDLQLQJPOPOSHSWRQHVDOW
VROXWLRQ DQGPL[WKRURXJKO\RQDZKLUOPL[HUIRUVHFRQGV/DEHOHPSW\3HWULGLVKHVZLWK
VDPSOH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ QXPEHU 5 5 DQG UHSOLFDWH D DQG E 7UDQVIHU E\ PHDQV RI D VWHULOH
SLSHWWHPORIWKHGLOXWLRQWRHDFKRIWZRGLVKHV,WLVUHFRPPHQGHGWRXVHDPLFURSLSHWWH
ZLWK ILOWHU WLS DQG WR ULQVH WKH SLSHWWLS EHIRUH XVH 3RXU PO WR PO RI WKH 6& DJDU
PDLQWDLQHGDW &LQWKHZDWHUEDWK LQWRHDFKGLVKDQGPL[ZHOOZLWKWKHLQRFXOXP
E\JHQWO\URWDWLQJHDFKGLVK:KHQWKHPHGLXPKDVVROLGLILHGDGGDQRYHUOD\HURIPORIWKH
VDPH6&DJDU$OORZWRVROLGLI\
1RWH WKH NLQG RI SLSHWWH XVHG RQ WKH WHVW UHSRUW 1RWH WKH WLPH EHWZHHQ SUHSDUDWLRQ RI VHULDO
GLOXWLRQDQGHQGRIWKHLQRFXODWLRQSURFHGXUHRQWKHWHVWUHSRUW7KLVSHULRGVKRXOGQRWH[FHHG
PLQXWHV
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
,QFXEDWLRQRIWKHSODWHV
&RXQWLQJRIWKHSODWHVDIWHULQFXEDWLRQ
5HFRUGRQWKHWHVWUHSRUWWKHGDWHWLPHDQGWHPSHUDWXUHDWWKHHQGRIWKHLQFXEDWLRQSHULRGDQG
ZKHWKHUDOOMDUVXVHGZHUHDQDHURELFGXULQJWKHIXOOLQFXEDWLRQSHULRG
&RXQWRQHDFKSODWHWKHEODFNFRORQLHVRISUHVXPSWLYH&SHUIULQJHQV1RWHWKHQXPEHURIW\SLFDO
FRORQLHVRQWDEOHVWRLQWKHFROXPQPDUNHGQXPEHURISUHVXPSWLYHFRORQLHV.HHSWKHSODWHV
FRQWDLQLQJOHVVWKDQFRORQLHVDWDOOGLOXWLRQVDQGLISRVVLEOHDWWZRVXEVHTXHQWGLOXWLRQV
6HOHFWLRQRIFRORQLHVIRUFRQILUPDWLRQ
6HOHFWFKDUDFWHULVWLFFRORQLHVIURPHDFKSODWHUHWDLQHGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQ,IOHVVWKDQ
FRORQLHVDUHDYDLODEOHRQWKHSODWHVFRXQWHGVHOHFWDOOWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFFRORQLHVSUHVHQW&RQILUP
WKHVHFRORQLHVDVGHVFULEHGLQ1RWHWKHQXPEHURIFRORQLHVWREHFRQILUPHGRQWDEOHVWRLQ
WKHFROXPQPDUNHGQXPEHURIFRORQLHVVXEPLWWHGWRFRQILUPDWLRQ
%LRFKHPLFDOFRQILUPDWLRQ
127( 7KH UHDFWLRQ REWDLQHG LQ ODFWRVH VXOILWH PHGLXP ZKHQ LQFXEDWHG DW & LV YHU\
VSHFLILFIRU&SHUIULQJHQVDQGVRPHVWUDLQVRI&SDUDSHUIULQJHQVDQG&DEVRQXP,WLVWKHUHIRUH
QRWQHFHVVDU\WRHQVXUHWKDWWKHEODFNFRORQLHVSLFNHGIURPWKHDJDUDUHSXUHEHIRUHLQRFXODWLRQ
LQWRWKHWKLRJO\FROODWHEURWKDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\LQWRWKHODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
0RWLOLW\QLWUDWHUHGXFWLRQPHGLXPDQGODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
*HQHUDOLQIRUPDWLRQ
7KLVFRQILUPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHQHFHVVLWDWHVZHOOLVRODWHGFKDUDFWHULVWLFFRORQLHV,ILWLVQRWWKHFDVH
WKHVXUIDFHDUHDRIWKHSODWHVLVRYHUJURZQDQGLWLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRVHOHFWZHOOLVRODWHG
FKDUDFWHULVWLFFRORQLHV LQRFXODWHFKDUDFWHULVWLFFRORQLHVLQWRSUHGHDHUDWHGIOXLGWKLRJO\FROODWH
PHGLXP ,QFXEDWHXQGHUDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQVDW &IRUKWRK6WUHDNWKH
FRORQLHVRQ6&EDVHDJDUSODWHV VHH DQGDGGDQRYHUOD\HURIPORIWKH6&EDVHDJDU
$OORZWRVROLGLI\DQGLQFXEDWHDQDHURELFDOO\DW &IRUKWRK6HOHFWIURPHDFKSODWH
DWOHDVWRQHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDQGZHOOVHSDUDWHGFRORQ\,IQHFHVVDU\UHSHDWWKHVWUHDNLQJDQG
LQRFXODWLRQRQ6&EDVHDJDUSODWHVXQWLOZHOOLVRODWHGFKDUDFWHULVWLFEODFNFRORQLHVDUHREWDLQHG
8VHWKHVDPHFRORQ\WRLQRFXODWHERWKWKHPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHDQGWKHODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
0RWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXP
/DFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
8VHWKHVDPHFRORQLHVDVXVHGLQWRLQRFXODWHWKHSUHGHDHUDWHGODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
WXEHV ,QFXEDWHXQGHUDQDHURELFFRQGLWLRQVDW &IRUKK
([DPLQHWKHWXEHVRIODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXPIRUWKHSUHVHQFHRIJDVDQGRID\HOORZFRORXU GXH
WRDFLG LQGLFDWLQJIHUPHQWDWLRQRIODFWRVH&KLOOWKHWXEHVIRUKDW &DQGFKHFNIRU
JHODWLQHOLTXHIDFWLRQ,IWKHPHGLXPKDVVROLGLILHGUHLQFXEDWHIRUDQDGGLWLRQDOKDQGDJDLQ
FKHFNIRUJHODWLQHOLTXHIDFWLRQ5HFRUGRQ7DEOHVRQWKHWHVWUHSRUWWKHUHVXOWVIRUHDFK
FRORQ\VHSHUDWHO\ VHHH[DPSOHRQSDJHRIWKHWHVWUHSRUW
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRIFRQILUPDWLRQWHVWUHVXOWV
5HFRUG RQ 7DEOHV RQ WKH WHVW UHSRUW WKH QXPEHU RI FRORQLHV WKDW KDV EHHQ FRQILUPHG DV &
SHUIULQJHQVIRUERWKPHWKRGVVHSDUDWHO\LQWKHFROXPQVPDUNHGQXPEHURIFRORQLHVFRQILUPHGDV
&SHUIULQJHQV
%LRFKHPLFDOUHVXOWVIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV
ODFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP EODFNHQLQJ
JDVIRUPDWLRQ 'XUKDPWXEHVDWOHDVWRQHTXDUWHUIXOORIJDV
PRWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXP QRQPRWLOH
UHGXFWLRQRIQLWUDWHD
ODFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP SURGXFWLRQRIDFLGDQGJDVIURPODFWRVH JDV\HOORZ
JHODWLQHOLTXHIDFWLRQ
D
&XOWXUHVWKDWVKRZDIDLQWUHDFWLRQIRUQLWULWH LHDSLQNFRORXU VKRXOGEHHOLPLQDWHGVLQFH&SHUIULQJHQV
FRQVLVWHQWO\JLYHVDQLQWHQVHDQGLPPHGLDWHUHDFWLRQ
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
7(675(3257
7KHWHVWUHSRUWVKRXOGFRQWDLQDOOLQIRUPDWLRQRQRSHUDWLRQDOGHWDLOVQRWPHQWLRQHGRUVSHFLILHGLQ
WKLV623WKDWPLJKWLQIOXHQFHWKHWHVWUHVXOW$Q\LQFLGHQWVRUGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKHVSHFLILFDWLRQV
VKRXOGDOVREHUHFRUGHG3OHDVHUHFRUGDOVRWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLQWKHODERUDWRU\URRPGXULQJWKH
H[DPLQDWLRQV7KHWHVWUHSRUWPXVWVWDWHWKHQDPHVRIWKHSHUVRQVFDUU\LQJRXWWKHZRUNDQGPXVW
EHVLJQHGE\WKHPDQGE\WKHSHUVRQLQFKDUJH,IWKHH[DPLQDWLRQLVFDUULHGRXWE\PRUHWKDQRQH
WHFKQLFLDQSOHDVHZULWHGRZQ LISRVVLEOH LQZKLFKZD\WKHWDVNVZHUHGHYLGHG
127()RUUHDVRQRIUHSHDWDELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVGLIIHUHQWWHFKQLFLDQVPD\H[DPLQHGLIIHUHQW
IRRGW\SHVEXWLWLV127DOORZHGWRKDYHPRUHWKDQRQHWHFKQLFLDQZRUNLQJRQWKHVDPH
IRRGW\SH
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ 7HVWUHSRUW
(YDOXDWLRQRIWKHKRUL]RQWDOPHWKRGIRUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXP
SHUIULQJHQV±FRORQ\FRXQWWHFKQLTXH
/DERUDWRU\FRGH
/DERUDWRU\QDPH
6KLSPHQWPHDWDQLPDOIHHGDQGUHIHUHQFHVDPSOHV
'DWHRIDUULYDOSDUFHO
3DUFHOGDPDJHG o\HV oQR
&RORXURIFRPSDUWPHQWVRIWHPSHUDWXUHGHYLFHDWWLPHRIDUULYDO
%ULHI oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
0RGHUDWH oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
3URORQJHG oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
6KLSPHQWFKHHVHVDPSOHV
'DWHRIDUULYDOSDUFHO
3DUFHOGDPDJHG o\HV oQR
&RORXURIFRPSDUWPHQWVRIWHPSHUDWXUHGHYLFHDWWLPHRIDUULYDO
%ULHI oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
0RGHUDWH oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
3URORQJHG oZKLWH oSDUWO\FRORXUHG UHG oFRPSOHWHO\FRORXUHG UHG
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0(',$86('
3HSWRQHVDOWVROXWLRQ
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
6RGLXPFLWUDWHVROXWLRQ
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
%XIIHUHG3HSWRQHZDWHU
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
6&DJDU
6&EDVHSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIEDVHPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
'F\FORVHULQH
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
)OXLGWKLRJO\FROODWHPHGLXP )7*
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
/DFWRVHVXOILWHPHGLXP
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIEDVHPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
0RWLOLW\QLWUDWHPHGLXP
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
1LWULWHGHWHFWLRQUHDJHQW
5HDJHQWSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHVROXWLRQV
$16$VROXWLRQ
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
6XOIDQLOLFDFLGVROXWLRQ
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
/DFWRVHJHODWLQHPHGLXP
0HGLXPSUHSDUHGIURP
oLQGLYLGXDOLQJUHGLHQWV SOHDVHUHFRUGLQJUHGLHQWVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQXVHGRQDQQH[
oFRPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHPHGLXP
0DQXIDFWXUHU
&RGHQXPEHU
%DWFKQXPEHU V
([SLU\GDWH V
S+RIPHGLXPPHDVXUHGDW««&«««
/$%7(03(5$785('85,1*75,$/
'DWH 7HPSHUDWXUH 5HPDUNV
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
(;$0,1$7,212)6$03/(6
&KHHVHVDPSOHV
([DPLQDWLRQRIFKHHVHVDPSOHVVWDUWHGDW
7LPHEHWZHHQVWDUWRISUHSDUDWLRQRILQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVDQGSRXULQJWKHDJDULQWKHGLVKHV
:DVWKLVIRUHDFKVDPSOHOHVVWKDQPLQXWHV" o\HV oQR
7\SHRISLSHWWHXVHG
oPLFURSLSHWWH 0DQXIDFWXUHU
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
WLSVXVHG oZLWKILOWHU oZLWKRXWILOWHU
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
oRWKHUSLSHWWHW\SH oJUDGXDWHG oRWKHUQDPHO\
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
'LVSRVDEOH o\HV oQR 0DGHRI oJODVV oSODVWLF
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
,1&8%$7,21&21',7,216
&+((6( 'DWH 7LPH 7HPSLQFXEDWRU $QDHURELF
FRQGLWLRQV"
6&SODWHV &
VWDUWRILQFXEDWLRQ &
HQGRILQFXEDWLRQ & <(612
)7*WXEHV &
VWDUWRILQFXEDWLRQ &
HQGRILQFXEDWLRQ & <(612
/DFWRVHVXOILWHWXEHV &
VWDUWRILQFXEDWLRQ &
HQGRILQFXEDWLRQ & <(612
0RWLOLW\QLWUDWHWXEHV &
VWDUWRILQFXEDWLRQ &
HQGRILQFXEDWLRQ & <(612
/DFWRVHJHODWLQHWXEHV &
VWDUWRILQFXEDWLRQ &
HQGRILQFXEDWLRQ & <(612
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0HDWVDPSOHV
([DPLQDWLRQRIPHDWVDPSOHVVWDUWHGDW
7LPHEHWZHHQVWDUWSUHSDUDWLRQRILQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVDQGSRXULQJWKHDJDULQWKHGLVKHV
:DVWKLVIRUHDFKVDPSOHOHVVWKDQPLQXWHV" o\HV oQR
7\SHRISLSHWWHXVHG
VDPHDVIRUVDPSOHVo\HV oQR ILOOLQTXHVWLRQVEHORZ
oPLFURSLSHWWH 0DQXIDFWXUHU
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
WLSVXVHG oZLWKILOWHU oZLWKRXWILOWHU
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
oRWKHUSLSHWWHW\SH oJUDGXDWHG oRWKHUQDPHO\
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
'LVSRVDEOH o\HV oQR 0DGHRI oJODVV oSODVWLF
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
'ULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHV ''
([DPLQDWLRQRIWKHGULHGDQLPDOIHHGVDPSOHVVWDUWHGDW
7LPHEHWZHHQVWDUWSUHSDUDWLRQRILQLWLDOVXVSHQVLRQVDQGSRXULQJWKHDJDULQWKHGLVKHV
:DVWKLVIRUHDFKVDPSOHOHVVWKDQPLQXWHV" o\HV oQR
7\SHRISLSHWWHXVHG
VDPHDVIRUVDPSOHVo\HV oQR ILOOLQTXHVWLRQVEHORZ
oPLFURSLSHWWH 0DQXIDFWXUHU
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
WLSVXVHG oZLWKILOWHU oZLWKRXWILOWHU
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
oRWKHUSLSHWWHW\SH oJUDGXDWHG oRWKHUQDPHO\
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
'LVSRVDEOH o\HV oQR 0DGHRI oJODVV oSODVWLF
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
5HIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV 55
([DPLQDWLRQRIUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOVVWDUWHGDW
5HFRQVWLWXWLRQRIUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOV
:HUHWKHFDSVXOHVWDNHQRXWRIWKHIUHH]HUKRXUEHIRUHUHFRQVWLWXWLRQ"o\HVoQR
5HFRQVWLWXWLRQSHULRGVWDUW«««HQG 0L[LQJVSHHGUSP
7HPSRIZDWHUEDWKGXULQJUHFRQVWLWXWLRQDWVWDUW& HQG&
:HUHDOOJHODWLQFDSVXOHVGLVVROYHGDIWHUUHFRQVWLWXWLRQ"o\HVoQR««««««
:HUHWKHWXEHVSODFHGLQPHOWLQJLFHLPPHGLDWHO\DIWHUWKHODVWPL[LQJ"o\HVoQR
7LPHRIVWDUWSUHSDUDWLRQRIVHULDOGLOXWLRQ«««(QG DGGLQJDJDUWRLQRFXOXP ««««
7\SHRISLSHWWHXVHG
VDPHDVIRUVDPSOHVo\HV oQR ILOOLQTXHVWLRQVEHORZ
oPLFURSLSHWWH 0DQXIDFWXUHU
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
WLSVXVHG oZLWKILOWHU oZLWKRXWILOWHU
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
oRWKHUSLSHWWHW\SH oJUDGXDWHG oRWKHUQDPHO\
$FFXUDF\ 9ROXPHUDQJH
'LVSRVDEOH o\HV oQR 0DGHRI oJODVV oSODVWLF
SLSHWWHXVHGIRU oSUHSDULQJVHULDOGLOXWLRQV oLQRFXODWLRQRISODWHV
7DEOHVIRUUHFRUGLQJWKHWHVWUHVXOWV H[DPSOH
6DPSOH;
SUHVXPSWLYH FRORQLHV JDV EODFNHQLQJ FRQILUPHGDV PRWLOLW\ QLWUDWH ODFWRVH JHODWLQH FRQILUPHGDV
FRQILUPDWLRQ JDV\HOORZ
D + + - + + + + + + + - - - - - + + - + + + + + + + + + - + +
E + + + + + + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
D + - + + + + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + + - + + + + + + + +
E + + - + + + + + - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + +
D
E
D
E
5HPDUN V RQRSHUDWLRQDOGHWDLOVWKDWPLJKWKDYHLQIOXHQFHGWKHWHVWUHVXOWV
$SSHQGL[ 5HVXOWVFROODERUDWLYHWULDO
&+((6(86,1*/$&726(68/),7(&21),50$7,21
&+((6(86,1*01 /* &21),50$7,21
0($786,1*/$&726(68/),7(&21),50$7,21
0($786,1*01 /* &21),50$7,21
'5,('$1,0$/)(('86,1*/$&726(68/),7(&21),50$7,21
'5,('$1,0$/)(('86,1*01 /* &21),50$7,21
50V
ODEFRGH UHSO /6 01 /*
1 /RJ1 1 /RJ1
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
D
E
1 QXPEHURI&SHUIULQJHQVSHUJUDPVDPSOH FISJ
/6 ODFWRVHVXOILWHFRQILUPDWLRQ
01 /* PRWLOLW\QLWUDWH ODFWRVHJHODWLQHFRQILUPDWLRQ
UHVXOWVH[FOXGHGIURPDQDO\VLV VHHDSSHQGL[
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ 'XQFDQ¶VWHVWUHVXOWV
*HQHUDO/LQHDU0RGHOV3URFHGXUH
'XQFDQ V0XOWLSOH5DQJH7HVWIRUYDULDEOH/2*&)8
127(7KLVWHVWFRQWUROVWKHW\SH,FRPSDULVRQZLVHHUURUUDWHQRWWKHH[SHULPHQWZLVHHUURUUDWH
'XQFDQ*URXSLQJ PHDQVZLWKWKHVDPHOHWWHUDUHQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQW
0HDQ PHDQORJ YDOXHVRIWKHEOLQGGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHV
1 QXPEHURIEOLQGGXSOLFDWHVDPSOHVZLWKLQHDFKODERUDWRU\ 1
/$% ODERUDWRU\FRGH
RXWO\LQJWHVWUHVXOW QRWH[FOXGHGIURPDQDO\VLV
0D[GLIIHUHQFH GLIIHUHQFHLQORJ FISJEHWZHHQWKHKLJKHVWDQGORZHVWPHDQYDOXH7KHYDOXHLQ
EUDFNHWVLVWKHPD[LPXPYDOXHZLWKRXWWKHRXWOLHU V PDUNHGZLWK
5()(5(1&(0$7(5,$/6/6&21),50$7,21
$
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% $ &
% ' &
% ' &
' ( &
' ( &
) ' (
) (
) (
)
5()(5(1&(0$7(5,$/601 /*&21),50$7,21
&+((6(6$03/(6±/6&21),50$7,21
$
$
$
$
$
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% &
% &
&
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
&+((6(6$03/(6±01 /*&21),50$7,21
$
$
$
$
$
$
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
%
$
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
%
%
&
'
$
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $ &
% &
% &
&
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
0($76$03/(6±/6&21),50$7,21
$
$
% $
% $ &
% ' &
% ' &
% ' &
% ' &
% ' &
' &
' &
'
(
$
$
% $
% $ &
% ' &
% ( ' &
) ( ' &
) ( ' *
) ( *
) + *
+ *
, +
,
$
$
% $
% $
% $
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% $ &
% &
% &
' &
'
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
0($76$03/(6±01 /*&21),50$7,21
$
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% ' $ &
% ' $ &
( % ' $ &
( % ' $ &
( % ' &
( ' &
( ' &
( '
(
$
% $
% $
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% ' $ &
% ' &
' ( &
' ( &
' (
' (
(
$
$
% $
% $ &
% $ &
% $ &
% $ &
% $ &
% &
% &
&
'
'
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
'5,('$1,0$/)(('6$03/(6±/6&21),50$7,21
$
%
&
' &
' &
' & (
' & (
' (
' (
) (
* )
*
*
$
% $
% &
' &
' & (
' & (
' ) (
' * ) (
' * ) (
* ) (
* )
*
+
$
$
$
%
%
& %
& % '
& % '
& % '
& '
( '
( '
(
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
'5,('$1,0$/)(('6$03/(6±01 /*&21),50$7,21
$
% $
%
&
' &
' &
' &
' &
' &
' (
) (
) (
)
$
$
$
%
& %
& %
& %
&
& '
& '
( '
( '
(
$
% $
% $
%
&
&
' &
' (
' ( )
' ( )
* ( )
* )
*
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
$SSHQGL[ 'HYLDWLQJWHVWUHVXOWV
$SSHQGL[ 6$6SURWRFRO
6RIWZDUH6$6UHOHDVH&RS\ULJKWE\6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF&DU\1&86$
3URJUDPILOHV6$6SHUIVDV 6$6UPVDV
'DWDILOHVFKHHVHVGPHDWVGGULHGVGUPVG
&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQVWULDOMDQIHEU
OLEQDPHVDVNLD Q?SHUIULQJ?WULDO?UHVXOWV?FDOFXOD
DUUDQJHGDWD
SURFFRQWHQWVGDWD VDVNLDGULHG
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWVDVNLDGULHG
GURSOVJDVOVEODFNPRWLOLW\QLWUDWHODFWRVHJHODWLQHFIXBJORJBFIXBSTWXYZ
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG
ZKHUH ODE
UXQ
UHPRYHFRORQ\FRXQWV!
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
LI FRXQWV
UXQ
PHUJHVDPSOHFRGHVZLWKWHVWUHVXOWV
SURFSULQWGDWD VDVNLDFRGHVUXQ
GDWDFRGHULQJ
VHWVDVNLDFRGHV
LI ODE!
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD FRGHULQJ
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOH
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD FRGHULQJ
E\ODEVDPSOH
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
PHUJHIRRG ,1 LQHHQ FRGHULQJ ,1 LQWZHH
E\ODEVDPSOH
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
,)LQHHQ LQWZHH
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG
UXQ
H[FOXGHEODQFVDPSOHV
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
LI OHYHOQH%
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
UXQ
UHPRYHHPSW\FHOOV
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
LIFRXQWV! FRXQWV
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
ZKHUH
OHYHO 0 DQG GLOXWLRQ RUGLOXWLRQ RU
OHYHO / DQG GLOXWLRQ RUGLOXWLRQ RU
OHYHO + DQG GLOXWLRQ RUGLOXWLRQ
UXQ
SURFIUHTGDWD IRRG
WDEOHVOHYHO GLOXWLRQ
UXQ
PXOWLSO\FRORQ\FRXQWVZLWKFRQILUPDWLRQIDFWRU
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
LI FRXQWV! WKHQWUXHIDF OVSRVWHVWHG
LI FRXQWV! WKHQWUXHIDF 01OJSRVWHVWHG
LI FRXQWV DQGOVSRV WKHQWUXHIDF
LI FRXQWV DQGPQOJSRV WKHQWUXHIDF
WUXHIDF
FROF LQW FRXQWV WUXHIDF ZKHUH FROF FRQILUPDWLRQXVLQJ/6PHGLXP
FROF LQW FRXQWV WUXHIDF ZKHUH FROF FRQILUPDWLRQXVLQJ01/*PHGLXP
FROF LQW FRXQWV WUXHIDF ZKHUH FROF QRFRQILUPDWLRQUHVXOWVLQFOXGHG
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOHGLOXWLRQ
UXQ
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
FDOFXODWHWKHGLOXWLRQIDFWRUIRUHDFKSODWHLQGLYLGXDOO\
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOHOHYHOGLOXWLRQ
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
GLOSRZHU GLOXWLRQ
GLOSRZH GLOSRZHU
GLOSRZH GLOSRZHU
GLOSRZH GLOSRZHU
LI WUXHIDF WKHQGLOSRZH
LI WUXHIDF WKHQGLOSRZH
LI WUXHIDF WKHQGLOSRZH
UXQ
VXPPDULVLQJFRXQWVDQGGLOXWLRQIDFWRUVIRUHDFKVDPSOH SODWHVWRJHWKHU
SURFPHDQVGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOHOHYHO
YDUFROFFROFFROFGLOSRZHGLOSRZHGLOSRZH
RXWSXWRXW IRRG
VXP FROF FIXVRP
VXP FROF FIXVRP
VXP FROF FIXVRP
VXP GLOSRZH GSRZHU
VXP GLOSRZH GSRZHU
VXP GLOSRZH GSRZHU
UXQ
FDOFXODWH1DQGORJ1SHUVDPSOH
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
FIX FIXVRPGSRZHU
FIX FIXVRPGSRZHU
FIX FIXVRPGSRZHU
ORJFIX ORJ FIX
ORJFIX ORJ FIX
ORJFIX ORJ FIX
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG
ZKHUH OHYHO /
UXQ
DQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFHDQG'XQFDQ V0XOWLSOH5DQJHWHVWSHUOHYHOFDOFXODWHGRQORJ1YDOXHV
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\OHYHO
UXQ
SURFJOPGDWD IRRG
E\OHYHO
FODVVODE
PRGHOORJFIX ODEVROXWLRQ
UDQGRPODE
PHDQVODEGXQFDQ
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
UXQ ÅFDOFXODWLRQRISUHFLVLRQGDWDXVLQJ/6PHGLXP
SURFJOPGDWD IRRG
E\OHYHO
FODVVODE
PRGHOORJFIX ODEVROXWLRQ
UDQGRPODE
PHDQVODEGXQFDQ
UXQ ÅFDOFXODWLRQRISUHFLVLRQGDWDXVLQJ01 /*PHGLXP
SURFJOPGDWD IRRG
E\OHYHO
FODVVODE
PRGHOORJFIX ODEVROXWLRQ
UDQGRPODE
PHDQVODEGXQFDQ
UXQ ÅFDOFXODWLRQRISUHFLVLRQGDWDRQQRQFRQILUPHGFRXQWV
)WHVWRQGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQUHVXOWVIURPERWKFRQILUPDWLRQPHWKRGV
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
GHOWFIX ORJFIXORJFIX
UXQ
SURFJOP
PRGHOGHOWFIX VROXWLRQ
UXQ
FDOFXODWH7 7IRUHDFKODERUDWRU\
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOHGLOXWLRQ
UXQ
SURFPHDQVGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOHGLOXWLRQ
YDUFRXQWV
RXWSXWRXW IRRG
VXP FRXQWV VXPFROF
PHDQ FRXQWV PHDQFROF
YDU FRXQWV YDUFROF
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEVDPSOH
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
LI BIUHTB WKHQVXPFROF PHDQFROF
UXQ
FDOFXODWLRQRI7
SURFVRUWGDWD FRGHULQJ
E\ODEVDPSOH
UXQ
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
GDWDIRRG
PHUJHIRRG LQ LQHHQ FRGHULQJ LQ LQWZHH
E\ODEVDPSOH
LI LQHHQ LQWZHH
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODEOHYHOGLOXWLRQ
UXQ
SURFPHDQVGDWD IRRG
E\ODEOHYHOGLOXWLRQ
YDUVXPFROF
RXWSXWRXW IRRG
PHDQ VXPFROF PQVFROF
YDU VXPFROF YDUVFROF
UXQ
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
WFRQW YDUVFROFPQVFROF
ZKHUH YDUVFROF! PQVFROF! PQVFROF!
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODE
UXQ
SURFPHDQVGDWD IRRG
E\ODE
YDUWFRQW
RXWSXWRXW IRRG
VXP WFRQW W
UXQ
GDWDIRRG7
VHWIRRG
XSSHUOP BIUHTB VTUW BIUHTB
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG7
UXQ
FDOFXODWLRQRI7
GDWDIRRG
VHWIRRG
WFRQW YDUFROFPHDQFROF
ZKHUH YDUFROF! PHDQFROF! PHDQFROF!
UXQ
SURFVRUWGDWD IRRG
E\ODE
UXQ
SURFPHDQVGDWD IRRG
E\ODE
YDUWFRQW
SDJHRI 5,90UHSRUW
RXWSXWRXW IRRG
VXP WFRQW W
UXQ
GDWDIRRG7
VHWIRRG
XSSHUOP BIUHTB VTUW BIUHTB
UXQ
SURFSULQWGDWD IRRG7
UXQ
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ 5HSHDWDELOLW\DQGUHSURGXFLELOLW\YDOXHV
35(&,6,212),620(7+2'&$/&8/$7('86,1*,62
&21),50('&2817686,1*/$&726(68/),7(0(',80
6DPSOHW\SH /HYHO /DEV VDPSOHV 0HDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
ORJFISJ
&21),50('&2817686,1*027,/,7<1,75$7( /$&726(*(/$7,1(0(',80
6DPSOHW\SH /HYHO /DEV VDPSOHV 0HDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
ORJFISJ
35(&,6,212),620(7+2'&$/&8/$7('86,1*SU(1,62
&21),50('&2817686,1*/$&726(68/),7(0(',80
6DPSOHW\SH /HYHO /DEV VDPSOHV 0HGLDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
ORJFISJ
&21),50('&2817686,1*027,/,7<1,75$7( /$&726(*(/$7,1(0(',80
6DPSOHW\SH /HYHO /DEV VDPSOHV 0HGLDQ U ORJ D
U E
5 ORJ F
5 G
56' U
H
56' 5
I
ORJFISJ
D U ORJ UHSHDWDELOLW\OLPLWWKHYDOXHOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRZKLFKWKHDEVROXWHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWZRWHVWUHVXOWV
H[SUHVVHGLQORJXQLWVDQGREWDLQHGXQGHUUHSHDWDELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVPD\EHH[SHFWHGWREHZLWKDSUREDELOLW\RI
E U UHSHDWDELOLW\OLPLWWKHYDOXHOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRZKLFKWKHDEVROXWHUDWLREHWZHHQWZRWHVWUHVXOWVH[SUHVVHGRQ
QRUPDOVFDOHDQGREWDLQHGXQGHUUHSHDWDELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVPD\EHH[SHFWHGWREHZLWKDSUREDELOLW\RI
F 5 ORJ UHSURGXFLELOLW\OLPLWWKHYDOXHOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRZKLFKWKHDEVROXWHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWZRWHVWUHVXOWV
H[SUHVVHGLQORJXQLWVDQGREWDLQHGXQGHUUHSURGXFLELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVPD\EHH[SHFWHGWREHZLWKDSUREDELOLW\RI
G 5 UHSURGXFLELOLW\OLPLWWKHYDOXHOHVVWKDQRUHTXDOWRZKLFKWKHDEVROXWHUDWLREHWZHHQWZRWHVWUHVXOWVH[SUHVVHGRQ
QRUPDOVFDOHDQGREWDLQHGXQGHUUHSURGXFLELOLW\FRQGLWLRQVPD\EHH[SHFWHGWREHZLWKDSUREDELOLW\RI
H 56'U [6UPHGLDQH[SUHVVLQJWKHYDOXHRIUUHODWLYHWRWKHFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHO6U VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQUHIOHFWLQJ
UHSHDWDELOLW\>@
I 56'5 [65PHGLDQH[SUHVVLQJWKHYDOXHRI5UHODWLYHWRWKHFRQWDPLQDWLRQOHYHO65 VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
UHIOHFWLQJUHSURGXFLELOLW\>@
5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI
$SSHQGL[ 0HGLD
2WKHUPHGLDDUHSUHVFULEHGLQWKH623LQ$SSHQGL[
'XQFDQ 6WURQJPHGLXP
&RPSRVLWLRQ
<HDVWH[WUDFW J
3URWHRVHSHSWRQH J
6WDUFK J
'LVRGLXPK\GURJHQSKRVSKDWH J
:DWHU PO
3UHSDUDWLRQ
'LVVROYHWKHFRPSRQHQWVLQZDWHUE\KHDWLQJ6WHULOLVHE\DXWRFODYLQJDW&IRUPLQXWHV
5HIHUHQFH0DQDYDNLV0-$YDQ'RPPHOHQ3+LQµW9HOG(QXPHUDWLRQRI&ORVWULGLXPSHUIULQJHQV
LQUHIHUHQFHPDWHULDOVIRUIRRGPLFURELRORJ\±%&5)22'WULDO1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH
(QYLURQPHQW 5,90 5HSRUWQR
0EURWK
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLXP %LRNDU%. 3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
PDQXIDFWXUHU¶VLQVWUXFWLRQV
0DJDU
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLXP %LRNDU%. 3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
PDQXIDFWXUHU¶VLQVWUXFWLRQV
5LQJHU¶VVROXWLRQ
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGWDEOHWV 0HUFN 3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU¶V
LQVWUXFWLRQV
&RRNHGPHDWPHGLXP
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLXP3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU¶VLQVWUXFWLRQV
1XWULHQWEURWK
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLXP3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU¶VLQVWUXFWLRQV
3ODWHFRXQWDJDU 3&$
&RPPHUFLDOO\DYDLODEOHFRPSOHWHGHK\GUDWHGPHGLXP 2[RLG&0 3UHSDUHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
PDQXIDFWXUHU¶VLQVWUXFWLRQV