Our 5G World in 2025
Our 5G World in 2025
what to expect,
how to make it happen
Dr. Konstantinos Stavropoulos
Solution Marketing Lead, EXFO
white
paper
Executive summary
There has been a lot of noise around 5G recently. But what about the future? What about the 5G
use cases realistically expected, say, by 2025? And what about the approach necessary for 5G to
deliver on its promise by then? This white paper tries to address the above questions.
Challenges for 5G
Complexity, investment and regulation are the key high-level challenges for 5G to deliver on its
promise by 2025. Complexity wise, new (mainly IT) concepts, the fiber infrastructure, 4G, and
5G-specific features have created a challenging multi-layer puzzle for 5G and for its defining
concept of end-to-end network slicing.
Will the AIM approach suffice for 5G to deliver by 2025? Will challenges we have not foreseen
arise on the way? Que sera sera (whatever will be, will be). . .
Note: For a more detailed discussion on 5G—from its challenges to relevant solutions and lessons learned from
deployments—please contact EXFO.
white paper
Introduction
There has been a lot of noise around 5G recently, with many network operators launching
(or about to launch) 5G, prioritizing services for their initial 5G rollout, sharing the 5G
challenges they have been facing, etc.
But what about the future? What about the use cases that 5G is realistically expected to
support, say by 2025? And what about the actions and approach necessary for 5G to deliver
on its multifaceted promise by then?
This white paper tries to address the above questions. We start by looking into the perception
and definition of 5G, followed by the 5G use cases likely to change our world by 2025. Next,
we discuss the 5G challenges (focusing on complexity) that worry network operators. Last
but not least, we look at what is required to ensure that 5G fully delivers by 2025, if not earlier.
society. focusing on fixed wireless access (as an alternative to fiber/cable), and/or a hotspot
technology (to ease the data demand/pressure on 4G).
Telefonica CTIO Enrique Blanco
(October 2019) In reality, 5G is much more than any of the above. 5G should be seen as an end-to-end
ecosystem b that will enable exciting use cases across multiple consumer and enterprise
verticals. The “ultra” 5G—throughput/capacity, latency and reliability—capabilities are indeed
impressive. And it is these capabilities, together with network slicing, that are expected to
make 5G standalone (SA) a critical part of the world’s connectivity backbone. So critical that,
as stated by the CTIO of a leading service provider (see quote), 5G performance issues will
affect the “hospitals, cars and industry”, not just mobile users.
a. Based on the GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) “5G Market Snapshot” (October 2019). The number of launches refers to
commercially available, 3GPP-compliant 5G services.
b. As per the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) 5G White Paper (2015) definition of 5G.
Smart Robots
buidings
Smart Autonomous
cities vehicles
In effect, 5G is a
catalyst for change, Smart
agriculture
Digital
health
not just for the
mobile/telecoms Transport Industry
& logictics automation
industry but
(potentially) for the
way we live, for our 1M
nodes/km2
10+
years life
10+
Gbit/s
1
ms
<10-5
outage
density energy data rate latency reliability
world in general.
Figure 1. 5G will enable exciting use cases and support diverse verticals with its impressive capabilities c
Interestingly, the 5G “ecosystem” builds upon a variety of existing and new concepts/
technologies as well as infrastructure. In addition to fiber and 4G (the foundation for 5G NSA),
concepts from network cloud/virtualization to service-based architecture are relevant d to 5G.
Even WiFi (including its latest version of WiFi 6) and satellite networks could be seen as
belonging to this wide “ecosystem” of 5G.
In effect, 5G is a catalyst for change, not just for the mobile/telecoms industry but (potentially)
for the way we live, for our world in general. 5G promises optimal network resource efficiency,
service agility, and better user experience as well as increased relevance to new verticals
(manufacturing, media and entertainment, health, automotive, transport, logistics, utilities,
etc.) and new business models for network operators.
c. 3D: 3-dimensional. eMBB: enhanced mobile broadband. mMTC: massive machine-type communication. UHD: ultra-high definition.
uRLLC: ultra-reliable low latency communication.
d. Relevant mobile network and IT concepts/technologies include: cloud (and cloud-native) and resource centralization (e.g., C-RAN,
cloud/centralized radio access network), service-centric operations (e.g., SBA, service-based architecture), virtualization (e.g., NFV,
network function virtualization), softwarization (e.g., SDN, software-defined networking), edge computing (e.g., MEC, multi-access/
mobile edge computing), etc.
How much of that will happen by 2025? The period of five years from now is neither very
long nor short. It allows us to expect certain trends, such as the rise of mega cities or the
growth in video consumption, which may still be reversible. 2025 is also a landmark year,
for which estimates abound. For example, there will be 1.2 billion 5G connections worldwide
according to GSMA e, while the planet’s population will reach 8.1 billion. But estimates are
just that: estimates. And as seen with IoT in recent years, numbers will have to be revised,
more often than not.
So, what do we expect 5G—following also its SA launch enabling end-to-end network slicing—
to bring by 2025? Will it be the “infinite-capacity” network or the network that “never” fails?
Will it pave the way for the Amazon or Apple network to be launched, following upon the
steps of Rakuten? Will it help radically transform workplaces and jobs?
Well, wild guesses aside, we can still discuss what we realistically expect—rather than
prophesize about—will happen by 2025. Or how the mobile/telecoms world—which is now
embracing transformation and adopting the IT vocabulary and architectures of open, intent-
The mobile/telecoms and service-focused, data abstraction and reusable module-based networks—will evolve.
world—now embracing And how the mobile/telecoms world will impact our world in general.
transformation and
adopting the IT Important note
vocabulary and As per the 5G “ecosystem” definition, it is essential to point out that many 5G use
cases will be supported by a dynamic mix of enabling technologies that includes, but
architectures is not limited to 5G. Take the example of the new era of industry or latest industrial
of open, intent- and revolution—denoted as Industry 4.0. In addition to 5G, non-public or private networks,
based networks—will
evolve. So, let’s travel in time to 2025 and see how 5G will change our world. Are you ready?
e. GSMA (GSM Association) is a trade body that represents the interests of mobile network operators. Note that, 5G connections wise,
other estimates anticipate higher numbers of connections by 2025.
∞
me
me
me
Prediction is very Figure 2. What 5G is expected to enable by 2025
difficult, especially
One network, many service providers
about the future. The traditional notion of network operators who build and operate their own network
Niels Bohr infrastructure to provide service offerings is already under attack. By 2025, the move away
from network centricity to service focus, based on features such as network slicing, will
have transformed the mobile industry. In practice, this should mean more service providers—
including new entrants, potentially even well-known names in the IT or retail space—making
use of a common “infinite” network infrastructure. This should also, hopefully, mean more
choice for consumers and enterprises.
f. Our “bets” on future developments would be safer if we focused on what is already being considered in one way or another. For
example, based on the 5G support for enhanced mobile broadband in conjunction with the expected further increase in video and
data consumption, “standard” use cases such as better video and internet or app experience would constitute such a “bet”. Private
networks have also become a hot topic of discussion (not limited to 5G), especially in the context of factory automation. That said,
even popular 5G use cases such as autonomous vehicles may be further away than many of us think today.
A new reality
5G promises to transform our experience of the virtual and real worlds. Cloud gaming and
UHD (4K, 8K) video are expected to become commonplace by 2025. On the other hand,
virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are likely to change the way we watch sports
(including our stadium experience), visit historical sites or travel as tourists, shop, learn, work
and live. To a different extent, the 5G promise for a new “extended” reality should be more
than just a promise by 2025.
The previous subsections describe use cases that we are likely to see 5G enable by 2025.
So what about those that are less likely to occur?
g. The (ancient Roman) god of duality, beginnings and endings, usually depicted as having two faces (one looking left, and one right).
Expression also used to denote contradiction (and duplicity).
− Autonomous vehicles
While self-driving (free-moving) vehicles are expected to show up on some roads, five
years may not suffice for wide adoption and acceptance by skeptics and authorities.
Even more time is likely to be required for self-flying vehicles, including taxi drones.
− Internet of senses
Tactile internet is an “ambitious” 5G use case. Although progress will be made by 2025,
we may have to wait for 5G evolution (or 6G) to reliably support the virtual experience of
touch. Taste and smell will probably take longer too.
− Remote surgery
Full implementation (i.e., not limited to video-based remote assistance) heavily depends
on the regulatory framework and not just the performance of the 5G infrastructure. This
is another use case that may need more time to convince its doubters and opponents.
The above 5G use cases only form a small representative list. Who knows, an accelerated
pace of implementing and accepting such use cases may prove expectations wrong. It will
not be the first time!
Any issues with 5G However the future may pan out, one thing is certain: there are a few 5G-related network
NSA could affect the challenges to address first. These are discussed in the next section.
5G deployment plan,
Challenging network domains, concepts,
the launch of 5G
infrastructure
SA, and the overall What is the biggest challenge for 5G? For some, it is to get 5G right the first time. Any issues
success of 5G. with 5G NSA could affect the 5G deployment plan, the launch of 5G SA, and the overall
success of 5G. Others are concerned that extremely high expectations set for 5G may be
hard to meet.
− Complexity
Albeit promising, 5G is inherently complex. As per the subsections that follow, 5G
entails technical challenges of a different nature or similar but accentuated-complexity
challenges as compared with say, 4G.
− Investment
5G calls for significant investment in new resources—from (licensed) radio spectrum to
network equipment and sites, and from technical expertise to advanced software solutions.
− Regulation
In addition to standard network operation concerns (from spectrum availability and
harmonization to site application and construction), regulation is needed for the new
verticals and use cases that 5G will address h.
Next, let’s take a closer look at the 5G complexity and some of its main aspects. As briefly
commented in the “What 5G is, what 5G will be” section, whenever we talk about 5G, we should
think of distinct but inextricably linked building blocks as well as the end-to-end picture.
h. The versatile nature of 5G and its dependence on the underlying network infrastructure will lead to interesting discussions here
(e.g., regulation of mission-critical applications and SLA responsibility of each involved party). Meanwhile, in the more traditional
spectrum regulation space, licensed spectrum sharing—such as or simpler than Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) in the
US—is likely to become commonplace.
Independant
Telephony slice
slices
CU/DU vCore vIMS
internet
Critical IoT slice
CU/DU vCore
V2X server
− Deploy infrastructure and services based on ROI-driven planning and comprehensive testing
− Operate network and services focusing on user/device experience and monetization criteria
k. CU/DU: centralized/distributed unit. IMS: IP multimedia subsystem. V2X: vehicle to anything. vCore: virtual core. vIMS: virtual IMS.
l. For simplicity, other factors—from 5G device (not just handset) availability to standardization—or the different challenges posed by
greenfield (i.e., new) deployments versus rollouts of 5G on top of legacy (e.g., 4G) infrastructure are not considered in the how-to
discussion here. For more information, you can contact EXFO.
Automation
A popular topic for many years, automation is not limited to 5G. In practice, the 5G discussion
mainly focuses on network complexity to highlight the need for advanced or intelligent
automation. But automation is a multi-faceted concept relevant to simpler or repetitive
tasks (e.g., automated workflows) as well as more intricate or even ad-hoc activities
(e.g., orchestration).
Interestingly, skepticism around the scope and impact of automation persists. In some
cases, this is due to fear that automation will put jobs at risk. In other cases, automation has
not yet proven its potential, especially with regard to complex tasks and activities. Whichever
the reason, the success of 5G depends on the successful, broader and deeper adoption of
automation.
This adoption should be seen in the context of headline telecoms themes such as
The success of transformation. Indeed, the radical change that 5G necessitates in the way that networks are
planned, deployed and operated—to address and monetize new use cases—should abide by
5G depends on the the same “rules”. For example, sensitivity to the current organizational culture inside service
successful, broader providers is of paramount importance, and linked to the 5G need for a different mindset.
At the same time, automation has a key prerequisite.
and deeper adoption
of automation. Intelligence
For 5G to fully deliver on its promise, intelligence is fundamental. Intelligence (or analytics)
can be seen as a multilayer term. It implies a smarter approach to 5G deployment, which
prioritizes network areas based on identified (e.g., geolocated) customer needs and selected
use cases. It also refers to insights related to end-to-end 5G network and service visibility,
which can be used for troubleshooting and optimization purposes.
5G emphasizes the need for data and insights of finer detail/resolution, for example provided
in real time so as to react to issues in seconds if not milliseconds. In addition, to utilize data
in a faster and more cost-effective manner (e.g., in terms of equipment footprint), there is
now a need not for “big” but for “right” data. The 5G “right” data reference encompasses
requirements for better accuracy (e.g., in our knowledge of the network infrastructure) and
better understanding of the topology or links connecting network elements, services and
devices/users/customers.
Yes, machine/deep learning and AI m will also play an essential role intelligence wise.
By integrating predictive and, for automation purposes, prescriptive capabilities, 5G will go
beyond proactive troubleshooting and powerful diagnostics to move to a preemptive mode
of network/service operations. But automation and intelligence will not suffice for 5G to
succeed by 2025.
m. The introduction of AI and its impact on not just telecoms but employment and our life in general has a number of practical and
philosophical/ethical connotations. While interesting and relevant to our world in 2025, AI and its implications are not the focus of
this document.
Mindset
5G may drive the wave of change in the mobile/telecoms industry, but it will also be affected
if that change does not happen as needed. Yes, a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Take
for example the operational silos created by the divide-and-conquer approach to dealing
with network complexity. For 5G to deliver on its promise, inefficiencies in network/service
operations must be addressed.
Such considerations underpin the requirement for a new mindset. The B2B (and B2B2C)
nature of 5G is one of the main reasons why this different mindset is required. The
fading demarcation lines between telecoms and IT or between wireless and wireline
communications make for another one. And more than ever before, complexity and cost
pressures accentuate the need to collaborate (in some cases even partner with competitors)
and to truly embrace innovation.
For 5G to deliver The seismic change caused by open network architectures—including the most complex
domain of radio access (RAN) and the ability to work with a multitude of vendors and not
on its promise, just well-known NEMs—is a concrete manifestation of a dramatically changing landscape.
inefficiencies in And the gradual transformation of network operators into service providers who no longer
own their network infrastructure should not be overlooked either. For 5G to be successful,
network/service the mobile/telecoms industry must be—literally and metaphorically—open.
operations must
be addressed. Automation
Intelligence Mindset
Figure 4: The AIM (Automation, Intelligence, Mindset) approach for 5G success by 2025
Whatever we call this high-level approach, it is required to ensure that 5G delivers on its
promise by 2025, if not earlier. Will such a 5G approach suffice? Will challenges we have not
foreseen arise on the way? Que sera sera o. . .
n. Of course, no term can fully represent the diverse challenges encountered in practice. Furthermore, Tier 1 operators have already
started following such an approach, by gradually increasing their reliance on automation and analytics, and by starting to introduce
a different, more dynamic (DevOps or “try and fail fast”), IT-like mindset in their organization.
o. Meaning “Whatever will be, will be”, this phrase became popular following the success of a 1950s hit song of the same title.
Conclusion
For a more detailed
discussion on 5G– 5G is monopolizing headlines, typically with stories about the status of deployments or the
from its challenges to next-year plans of network operators and other companies interested in 5G. But how much
relevant solutions and can 5G actually change our world, not in a year but after a longer time period? Only time
lessons learned from will tell.
deployments–please
contact EXFO. This white paper is a high-level attempt to discuss what the future holds with and for 5G.
The document has looked into the use cases that 5G is realistically expected to support
by 2025, including industrial and extended-reality applications. The white paper has also
focused on key 5G network domain/concept challenges, and has outlined a high-level—AIM
or automation, intelligence and mindset centric—approach to address them.
Acronyms
2G/3G/4G/5G 2nd/3rd/4th/5th generation IoT internet of things
3D 3-dimensional IMS IP multimedia subsystem
3GPP 3rd generation partnership project IT information technology
standards organization MEC multi-access/mobile edge computing
4K/8K UHD-resolution video MIMO multiple input multiple output
5GC 5G core mMTC massive machine-type communication
AI artificial intelligence NEM network equipment manufacturer
AIM automation, intelligence, mindset NFV network function virtualization
AR augmented reality NGMN next generation mobile networks
B2B business to business NR new radio
B2B2C B2B to consumer NSA non-standalone (5G mode)
CBRS citizens broadband radio service RAN radio access network
C-RAN cloud/centralized RAN ROI return on investment
CTIO chief technology and information officer SA standalone (5G mode)
CU centralized unit SBA service-based architecture
DevOps “try and fail fast” IT operations model SDN software-defined networking