A

PROJECT REPORT
ON
MARKETING STRATEGIES
IMPLEMENTED BY THE FMCG SECTOR IN MAHARASHTRA” FMCG COMPANY
‘AMUL’ SPECIAL REFRANCE OF AMRAVATI

Submitting partial fulfillment for the requirement for the degree of Master of
Business administration (MBA) To
RASHTRASANT TUKDOJI MAHARJ NAGPUR UNIVERSITY NAGPUR
Submitted By MISS.MANJIRI
RAJENDRA THAKARE

M B A ( FINAL YEAR )

Under the Guidance of

Dr. Dinesh Mirkute

RANIBAI AGNIHOTRI INSTITUTE OF COMPUTER SCIENCE &

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, WARDHA

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 CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project report entitled “MARKETING STRATEGIES
IMPLEMENTED BY THE FMCG SECTOR IN MAHARASHTRA”FMCG COMPANY
‘AMUL’SPECIAL REFRANCE OF AMRAVATI”
submitted by MISS. MANJIRI RAJENDRA THAKARE a partial fulfillment
for the requirement master of business administration examination of the
Rashtrasnat Tukdoji Maharaj Nagpur University, Nagpur for the academic
session 2024-2025 is an original carried out under the supervision and
guidance of Dr. Smita Kalokar and has undergone the requisite duration
as prescribe by the RASHTRASANT TUKDOJI MAHARJ NAGPUR
UNIVERSITY
,NAGPUR for
the project
work.

PROJECT GUIDE PRINCIPAL

Dr. Dinesh Mirkute Dr. Ritesh S Sule

EXTERNAL EXAMINER

Date:

Place: wardha

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 DECLERATION

I hereby declare that the project work “MARKETING STRATEGIES

IMPLEMENTED BY THE FMCG SECTOR IN MAHARASHTRA” FMCG COMPANY
‘AMUL’SPECIAL REFRANCE OF AMRAVATI .
submitted to the RTM,Nagpur University,
Nagpur, is a record of and original work done by me under the guidance, Dr.
Smita Kalokar Ranibai Agnihotri institure of computer Science and
information Technology, Wardha. This project work is submitted to the
RTM Nagpur University, Nagpur in the partial fulfillment of requirement of the
degree of Master of business administration. The result embodied in this
project have not been submitted by me to other university or institute for the
award of any degree.

Date : MANJIRI THAKARE

Place : Wardha MBA Sem IV

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my heart full thanks to my supervisor Dr.

Smita Kalokar for his guidance throughout my project work. I am very
thankful to the entire team of company name their cooperation.

I express my gratitude to Prof. Dr. Dinesh Mirkute Head Department

of management studies at Ranibai Agrihotri Institute of Computer Science
and I T, wardha for providing me opportunity to pursue MBA program. I
am also expressing sincere thanks to all the faculty members who have
directly or indirectly helped me in preparation of this project report.
I thank this opportunity to take all those who have been of help to
me in the completion of this project. Finally I thank to my friends for their
continuous support and help in the completion of my project.

NAME OF THE STUDENT

MANJIRI R.THAKARE

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 TABLE OF CONTENT
SR
NO
Name of the Chapter PAGE
NO
CHAPTER 1
1 INTRODUCTION 7-12
2 COMPANY PROFILE 13-18
3 REVIW OF LITERATURE 19-21
CHAPTER 2
4 RESEARCH METHDOLOGY 22-26
a) OBJECTIVE OF STUDY
b) HYPOTHESIS
c) SAMPLE SIZE
d) RESEARCH METHOD
e) DATA COLLECTION
5 DATA INTERPRETATION 27-33
6 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 34
CHAPTER 3
7 CONCLUSION 35-36
8 SUGGESTION 37
BIBLIOGRAPHY 38
QUESTIONNAIRE 39

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Page | 6
 1.INTRODUCTION
Products which have a quick turnover, and relatively low cost are
known as Fast Moving Consumer Goods (F.M.C.G.). F.M.C.G. products
are those that get replaced within a year. Examples of F.M.C.G.
generally include a wide range of frequently purchase d consumer
products such as toiletries, soap, cosmetics, tooth cleaning products,
shaving products and detergents, as well as other non-
durables such as glassware, bulbs, batteries, paper products, and plast
ic goods. F.M.C.G. may also include pharmaceuticals, consumer
electronics, packaged food products, soft drinks, tissue paper, and
chocolate bars. India’s
F.M.C.G. sector is the fourth largest sector in the economy and creates
employment for more than three million people in downstream
activities. Its principal constituents are House hold Care, Personal Care
and Food & Beverages. The total F.M.C.G. market is in excess of
Rs.85,000 Crores. It is currently growing at double digit growth rate
and is expected to high growth rate. F.M.C.G. Industry is characterized
by a well established distribution network, low penetration levels, low
operating cost, lower per capita consumption and intense competition
between the organized and unorganized segments. 2.1.1 HISTORY
OFF.M.C.G. IN INDIA: In India, companies like ITC, H.U.L., Colgate,
Cadbury and Neste have been a dominant force in the F.M.C.G. sector
well supported by relatively less competition and high entry barriers
(import duty was high). These companies were, there fore,able to
charge a premium for their products. In this context, the margins were
also on the higher side. With the gradual opening up of the economy
over the last decade, F.M.C.G.companies have been forced to fight for
a market share. In the process, margins have been compromised

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 BACKGROUND
The future success of any business depends heavily on how savvy its management is in
spotting trends and developing appropriate strategies. The leaders of the best
companies often seem to have a sixth sense for when to change direction to stay a step
ahead of the competition. These companies seldom get into trouble by badly
misestimating what the demand will be for their products. Many other companies do.
The ability to forecast well makes the difference.

Due to the strong competition and economic hardship, sales forecasting is a challenging
problem as the demand fluctuation is influenced by many factors. A good forecasting
model leads to improve the customers’ satisfaction, increase sales revenue and make
production plan efficiently. An effective and timely forecasting model is an urgent and
indispensable tool for handling the inventory level. On the other hand, poor forecasting
methods would result in redundant or insufficient stock that will affect the income and
competitive advantage directly.

Forecasting is used to predict or describe what will happen, and the use of such of
forecasts in planning would help make a good decision about the most attractive
alternatives for the company (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). For instance, sales
forecast would enhance the decision quality of a sales strategy performed by the sales
or marketing department. The same sales forecast would also be used by operational
departments for supporting a decision on planning and scheduling of production
process.

Many forecasting techniques have been developed either quantitative or qualitative

methods. In fact, the most common practice in business is the judgmental forecasting
method (Makridakis 1989, DeLurgio, 1998, Wright & Goodwin 1998) in which the
decision-makers perform a forecasting task through a judgmental decision mainly
based on their intuitions and experiences. Almost all enterprises have experienced in
accomplishing forecasting task through judgmental method, some perform with the
combination of statistical method and only few rely solely on the statistical method
(Makridakis, 1989).
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FORECASTING
Definition: Forecasting is the program of action that entails an objective study
of the past, present and future, so as to best estimate what that future holds in
the way of sales for any given product or firm. Any company in selling goods
needs to forecast the demand for those goods. Manufactures need to know
how much to produce. Wholesalers and retailers need to know how much to
stock. Substantially understanding demand is likely to lead to many lost sales,
unhappy customers, and perhaps allowing the competition to gain the upper
hand in the marketplace.

1.1 NEED OF FORECASTING

1.1.1. To aid Problem-solving techniques:

I. To control finished product inventory.

II. To schedule work to achieve optimum use of plant and equipment.

III. To maintain adequate stocks of raw materials and supplies to

ensure uninterrupted production.
IV. To minimize overstocking and keeps warehousing and carrying
costs at a minimum. V. To make manpower planning.
VI. To estimate cash requirement.

1.1.2. To aid Management:

I. To guide top management policy and overall planning and control
of operations.
II. To reconcile views of various functional areas as to the types
and quantities of products produced.
III. To make sound plant expansion decisions.
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 1.1.3.To make plan for long-term and short-term financingTo aid Sales &
Marketing decisions:
I. To establish sales quotas for the sales force.
II. To formulate sales force compensation plan.
III. To direct sales effort and establish sales and promotional expenses.
IV. To determine the size and character of the advertising budget. V.
To develop prices that will give a reasonable level of profit.
To determine which product should be further developed. VII. To
schedule new product introductions

1.2 OVERVIEW OF FMCG SECTOR

FMCG (also known as consumable packaged goods) are product that have
a quick turnover and relatively low price consumers generally put less
thought into the purchase of FMCG than they do for other products.

Though the absolute profit made on FMCG products is relatively small on

the unit basis, they generally sell in large numbers and so the cumulative
profit on such products can be large. Every time the economy starts to dip. A
person may put off buying a car but he will not put off having his dishes.

The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is an important contributor

to India’s GDP and it is the fourth largest sector of the Indian economy. Items
in this category are meant for frequent consumption and they usually yield
a high return. The most common in the list are toilet soaps, detergents,
shampoos, toothpaste, shaving products, shoe polish, packaged foodstuff,
and household accessories and extends to certain electronic goods.

The Indian FMCG sector, with an estimated market size of Rs2 trillion,
accounts for the fourth largest sector in India. In the last decade, the FMCG

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 sector has grown at an average of 11% a year; in the last five years,
annual growth accelerated at compounded rate of 17.3%. The
Indian FMCG sector is highly fragmented, volume driven and
characterized by low margins. The sector has a strong MNC
presence, well established distribution network and high
competition between organized and unorganized players. India is
becoming one of the most attractive markets for foreign MCG
players due to easy availability of imported raw materials and
cheaper labour costs

The top 5 companies in FMCG sector:

S.No. Companies
1 Hindustan Unilever
Ltd.
2 ITC (Indian Tobacco
Company)
3 Dabur India
4 Britannia Industries
5 AMUL Industries

MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE FMCG SECTOR IN INDIA

In present situation not only in one industry but also all sectors are facing
tough competition. It has become very difficult to grow, stabilize and excel
in business performance. The FMCG market is extremely volatile. New
products, shorter product life-cycles and the influence of promotions
means that sales forecasts and sales planning is extremely difficult for
FMCG sector. Moreover, FMCG sector encounter fragmented retail
structures in some countries, which makes planning difficult. Therefore,
sales’ planning at a global level for FMCG sector is a highly-complex
process.

EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM THE STUDY

It is expected the study would contribute in clarifying all the concepts
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 relating to sales forecasting. The beneficiary from the study would be first
of all self- researcher, academician, practicing managers and the persons
who involved in sales forecasting process. The suggested sales forecasting
model for different categories of goods would help the forecaster to
improve their accuracy of forecast. The study also helps in identifying all
the factors affecting the selection of sales forecasting models for select
fast moving consumer goods. The following are the expectations of
forecasters from improved forecast:

 Lower Inventory Cash Flow, which will allow for increased expenditures
in areas such as advertising and in-store displays to further promote
sales.
 Minimum store-level stock outs (lost sales).
 Maximum resource utility under constrained production environment
by producing the right product at the right time.

The FMCG companies may implement the suggestions for improving the
sales forecasting of different categories of goods in order to deliver the
goods to the customer in time and also reduces the cost of handling
inventory. It can be said the benefits would be multidimensional for all
industries and sectors.

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 2.COMPANY PROFILE

FMCG:- Industry Overview

Indian FMCG sector size poised to reach US$ 47 bn by 2013 and US$
74 bn by 2018, growing annually at 10-12%.
By 2025, total consumption is likely to quadruple making India the
5th largest consumer market. Organized retail is expected to grow by
14- 18% by 2015 thereby boosting FMCG growth
. Indian rural market currently worth US$ 9 bn is expected to become
a US$ 100 bn opportunity by 2025
Indian FMCG industry worth US$ 29 bn roughly constitutes 2.2% of
India‘s GDP. Within the FMCG sector, Food products are the largest
consumption category
. Strategic focus on rural marketing, innovations, niche
consumer segments, exports
, Life style products to further the current 10% annual sector
growth. Dairy industry: A profile (As per Jan 20, 2011)
India is the world leader in milk production with total volume of 115
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 million tons. Driven by steady population growth and rising income, milk
consumption continues to rise in India. Dairy market is currently growing
at an annual growth rate of around 7 per cent in volume terms. The
market

size of Indian dairy industry stands at around US$ 45 billion. Since India‘s
population is predominantly vegetarian; milk serves as an important part
of daily diet. Indians use milk in various preparations such as in brewing
tea and coffee, in making yogurt or curd and in preparing many Indian
dishes. For most households, milk is also a popular beverage due to its
nutritional value. In India, rural households consume almost 50 percent
of total milk production. Of the share of milk sold in the domestic market,
almost 50 percent is consumed in fluid form, 35 percent is consumed as
traditional products (cheese, yoghurt and milk based sweets), and 15
percent is consumed for the production of butter, ghee, milk powder and
other processed dairy products (including baby foods, ice cream, whey
powder, casein, and milk albumin). Most dairy products are consumed in
the fresh form and only a small quantity is processed for value addition.
In recent years, however, the market for branded processed food products
has expanded. Although only around 2 per cent food is processed in India,
still the highest processing happens in the dairy sector, where 35 per cent
of the total produce is processed, of which only 13 per cent is processed
by the organised sector

KEY FACTS
65 per cent of the milk is sold in loose‖ form Only 5 per cent of the milk is
sold through retail chains 70 per cent is delivered to the homes by ‗milk
agents‘
Carton milk or packaged milk has been growing at 24 per cent
annually Most branded FMCG companies are keen on launching
flavoured dairy products whose market size is pegged at US$ 166
million

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 PAR CAPITA AVAILABILITY OF MILK
Year Grams per
day 2000-01
220
2005-06 241
2008-09 250*
*estimated, Source: Department of Animal Husbandry and dairying

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 BRIEF HISTORY OF AMUL
AMUL (Anand Milk Union Limited), formed in 1946, is a dairy cooperative
movement in India. It is a brand name managed by an apex cooperative
organization, Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Lt. (GCMMF),
which today is jointly owned by some 2.6 million milk producers in Gujarat,
India.
AMUL is based in Anand, Gujarat and has been a sterling example of a co-
operative organization's success in the long term. It is one of the best
examples of co-operative achievement in the developing world.
"Anyone who has seen ... the dairy cooperatives in the state of Gujarat,
especially the highly successful one known as AMUL, will naturally wonder
what combination of influences and incentives is needed to multiply such a
model a thousand times over in developing regions everywhere.
‖ The Amul Pattern has established itself as a uniquely appropriate
model for rural development. Amul has spurred the White Revolution of
India, which has made India the largest producer of milk and milk
products in the world. It is also the world's biggest vegetarian cheese
brand.

Amul is the largest food brand in India and world's Largest Pouched Milk
Brand with an annual turnover of US $1050 million (2006-07).
Currently Amul has 2.6 million producer members with milk collection
average of
10.16 million litres per day. Besides India, Amul has entered overseas
markets such as Mauritius, UAE, USA, Bangladesh, Australia, China,
Singapore, Hong Kong and a few South African countries. Its bid to enter
Japanese market in 1994 had not succeeded, but now it has fresh plans of
flooding the Japanese markets. Other potential markets being considered
include Sri Lanka.
Dr Verghese Kurien, former chairman of the GCMMF, is recognized as
the man behind the success of Amul. On 10 Aug 2006 Parthi Bhatol,
chairman of the Banaskantha Union, was elected chairman of GCMMF.

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 The mighty Ganges at its origin is but a tiny stream in the Gangotri
ranges of the Himalayas. Similar is the story of Amul which inspired
Operation Flood and heralded the 'White Revolution' in India. It began
with two village cooperatives and 250 liters of milk per day, nothing but
a trickle compared to the flood it has become today. Today Amul
collects processes and distributes over a million liters of milk and milk
products per day, during the peak, on behalf of more than a thousand
village cooperatives owned by half a million farmer members.

AMUL means "priceless" in Sanskrit. The brand name

"Amul," from the Sanskrit "Amoolya," was suggested by a
quality control expert in Anand. Variants, all meaning
"priceless", are found in several Indian languages
Amul products have been in use in millions of homes since 1946. Amul
Butter, Amul Milk Powder, Amul Ghee, Amul spray, Amul Cheese,
Amul Chocolates, Amul Shrikhand, Amul Ice cream, Nutramul, Amul
Milk and Amulya have made Amul a leading food brand in India.
(Turnover: Rs.
52.55 billion in 2007-08). Today Amul is a symbol of many things. Of high-
quality products sold at reasonable prices
. 50 years after it was first launched, Amul's sale figures have jumped
from 1000 tonnes a year in 1966 to over 25,000 tonnes a year in 1997.
No other brand comes even close to it. All because a thumb-sized girl
climbed on to the hoardings and put a magical spell on the masse
AMUL stands for
,A=
Anand M
= Milk
U = Union
L = Limited
Amul (Anand milk union ltd.) is abased on four hands, which are
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 coordinated with each other. The actual meaning of this symbol is co-
ordination of four hands of different people by whom this union is at the
top position in Asia.
First hand is of farmers, without whom the organization would not have
existed. Second hand is of processors, who process the row material
(milk)into finished goods Third hand is of marketer, without whom the
product would have not reached the customers Fourth hand is of
customers, without whom the products would have not carried on.

INFORMATION
Company Name: Amul India (Gujarat Co-operative milk
marketing federation ltd)Business Type: Manufacturer
Product/Services: Infant Milk Food,Skimmed Milk
Powder,Butter,Cheese (Cheddar,Mozzarella,Emmental,Gouda) cheese
spreads,Ghee,Condensed Milk,Chocolates,malted milk food
Bread spreads,fresh milk,UHT milk,Ice-cream.
Address: Amul Dairy Road Number of Employees: 501 - 1000 People
URL: http://www.Amul.comOWNERSHIP & CAPITAL
Year Established: 1973
Representative/Business Owner: B M Vyas Trade & Marke
North America
South America
Western Europe Main Market : Eastern Europe

Eastern Asia
Southeast
Asia Mid
East Africa
Oceania
Total Annual Sales Volume: Above US$100 Million Factory
Information No. of R&D Staff: Above 100 People

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 3.REVIW OF LITERATURE
Forecasting knowledge is fortunately extensive, since the rapid progress of
events, the constant drive for increased efficiency, and the complexities of
operation of even medium-sized firms, all require carefully planned and
coordinated programs of activity. The current need is, of course, greater than
under the simpler condition of a century ago.

J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green (September 2005) conducted a research

to identify methods that could be useful for predicting demand in various
situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general,
use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus
groups, and data mining. In situations where there were sufficient data, use
quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-
based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods that structure
judgment including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental
bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Managers
domain knowledge should be incorporated into statistical forecasts.

Abhijeet Kamble et.al. (April 2006) discussed the sales forecasting techniques
for two- wheeler automobile industry. It was important to identify the target
market categories for two- wheeler and Scooters. It was also very important to
give much attention on the easy loan availability for the urban and rural
customers of two-wheelers.

Martinovic Jelena, (SCG) & Damnjanovic Vesna, (SCG) (May 2006) summarized
techniques that manager used into two types: qualitative and quantitative
techniques. The use of computer software in sales forecasting in Serbia was
also discussed in this paper. It was concluded in this paper that the quantitative
forecasting techniques were best employed when companies have access to

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 historical data. Quantitative techniques have distinct advantages in situations
where managers must make frequent forecasts for hundreds or thousands of
products. Because of the large number of calculation required by quantitative
forecasting procedures, analysts need access to computers and appropriate
forecasting software. The support of computer software should help in reducing
the forecast error. In order to apply computer package for sales forecasting the
companies need to choose a program that works for the time series which
managers planed to predict.

Tom Wallace (2006) showed the four fundamentals upon which Sales &
Operations Planning was built: demand, supply, volume, and mix. Two of the
important tasks of Sales & Operations Planning were balance demand and
supply and align volume and the mix. The third major task for Sales & Operations
Planning was to integrate operational planning and financial planning. It was
concluded that the tools to forecast were getting better, but the demand
patterns to be forecast were frequently getting worse! Smooth, long-running, and
repeating patterns could be forecast quite well with simple techniques. Wild,
erratic, highly volatile, and short life cycle patterns, with longer lead times, are
inherently difficult to forecast—even with the most powerful techniques.
Unfortunately, the trend is for business forecasters to have to deal with more of
these latter types of series

Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin (2007) conducted a survey of 149 forecasters
to examine the use of judgment based on these established principles and to
investigate whether their forecasting procedures were consistent with the
principles. In addition, four in-depth case studies is also conducted. It was also
discovered that many organizations would improve forecast accuracy if they
followed basic principles such as limiting judgmental adjustments of
quantitative forecasts, requiring managers to justify their adjustments in
writing, and assessing the results of judgmental interventions.

Philip Doganis et.al. (December 2008) proposed a complete management

framework for production inventory systems that is based on MPC (Model
Predictive Control) and on a neural network time series forecasting model. The
proposed framework was tested on industrial data in order to assess the
efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on the overall

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 control performance. To this end, the proposed method was compared with
several alternative forecasting approaches that were implemented on the
same industrial dataset. The results showed that the proposed scheme could
improve significantly the performance of the production-inventory system, due
to the fact that more accurate predictions were provided to the formulation of
the MPC optimization problem that was solved in real time.

Larry Lapide (2009) stated that all products were not equally forecastable and
that’s why it was discussed in this study “how to handle the products that are
difficult to forecast— products with intermittent demand, new products, etc. It
was concluded that forecasters will now have to grapple more with
Promotional/Event and Business Cycle/Economic Conditions demand
variations. Forecasters will be faced with this type of HTF (Hard-to-forecast)
demand, because history provides little guidance on the success of a new
product, and promotional effects are not well understood due to the fickleness
of customer response to promotions. Historical data will also offer less help in
estimating the impact of an economy that we’ve never seen before.

Nazia Sultana & Sadia Rahman Shathi (January 2010) concluded that the
problems in demand planning are significant for FMCG manufacturers today.
Their consequences affect product quality, retailer economics and shopper
satisfaction. The potential of this Demand Planning Methodology to improve the
certainty of demand planning decision making was equally significant, varying
only in the degree of accuracy and detail that was economically appropriate for
the product category in question. The forecasting and performance improvement
methods mentioned were very useful for any newly entered FMCG company, as
they might not be able to afford the costly forecasting softwares and these
methods were very easy to implement with low cost.

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Page | 22
 4.RESEARCH METHDOLOGY

“ RESERCH IS A SYTEMATIZED EFFORT TO GAIN NEW KNOWLEDGE ’’

According to Redman and Mory

“Research comprises of defining and redefining problems, formulating

hypothesis or suggested solutions, making deduction and reaching
conclusion and at last carefully testing the conclusion to determine whether
they fit the formulating hypothesis.”

ACCORDING TO CLIFFORD WOODY

Designing a suitable methodology and selection of analytical tools are

important for meaningful analysis of any research problem. This chapter
presents methods, techniques and the tools applied in the analysis of the
present study.

A ) OBJECTIVE OF STUDY

The following are the objectives of doing this research:

1. To assess the suitability of various models for sales forecasting in FMCG Sector.

2. To study and analyze attributes and factors affecting the selection of sales
forecasting models for select FMCG goods.

3. To compare various forecasting techniques as per the attributes of select FMCG goods.
4. To suggest justifiable modifications in forecasting models as per the attributes of
select FMCG goods.

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 b) HYPOTHESIS

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a

hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires
that one can test it. Scientists
generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that
cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories.
Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used
synonymously, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as
a scientific theory. A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted
hypothesis proposed for further research.

H0: There is no relationship between the youth and the changing

trends in online shopping.

H1: There is a relationship between the youth and the changing trends
in online shopping

C ) SAMPLE SIZE

Sampling may be defined as the selection of some part of an aggregate totality

on the basis of which a judgment or inference about the aggregate or totality is
made. In other words, it is the process of obtaining information about an entire
population by examining only a part of it.
The researcher selects only a few items from the universe for his study purposes.
In this study the sample consisted of those products which show high
volatility. The purposive sampling is used for selection of companies for
finding out the selection criteria of different sales forecasting techniques
used by them which is helpful in identifying the variables and suitable
models for selected fast moving consumer goods. The largest
companies (in terms of sales) are sampled since it is more likely that larger
companies would have larger forecasting departments and more experience in
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 using sales forecasting methods. The purposive sampling is also used for
selecting the fast moving consumer goods from different categories for
comparison of the accuracy of different sales forecasting models

Sample Size :-
The Sample size is 50 Respondent

d ) RESEARCH METHOD

As described in earlier chapters, the purpose of this study is to find a suitable

model for sales forecasting in FMCG Sector. For this purpose the comparison
of the different sales forecasting techniques have been done for selected fast
moving consumer goods. According to the definitions of various types of
research, this research can be best classified as an explanatory cum action
research. The research design used in this study is panel study because this
study covers the both longitudinal and cross-sectional aspects

e ) DATA COLLECTION

A data is a collection of facts, figures & other relevant materials

serving as a basis for study & analysis. Data is the plural of the Latin
datum (a ‘given’ fact).
A subject or individual is a single member of a collection of items that we
want to study, such as persons, firms, or regions.
A variable is a characteristic of the subject or individual, such as an
employee’s income or an invoice amount.
The data set consists of all the values of all of the variables for all of the
individuals we have chosen to observe. A data set may consist of many
variables. The questions that can be explored and the analytical techniques
that can be used will depend upon the data type and the number of variables.

DATA SOURCES
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 The primary data is collected from the following FMCG companies
websites: HUL Ltd, Dabur India Ltd., Britannia Industries Ltd., ITC
Ltd., Marico Ltd. AMUL Ltd.

DATA TYPES

A data set may contain a mixture of data types. Two broad categories are
categorical data and numerical data.
In this study categorical data and numerical data (continuous/metric) both are
used for computation of desired outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION METHOD

1. Qualitative Research- Qualitative Research is generally undertaken to

develop an initial understanding of the problem. It is non statistical in
nature. It uses an inductive method, that is, data relevant to some
topics are collected and grouped into appropriate meaningful
categories. It is used in exploratory research design and descriptive
research also.

Qualitative data comes into a variety of forms like interview transcripts;

documents, diaries and notes made while observing. There are two main
methods for collecting Qualitative data

1.
a. Direct Collection Method-When the data is collected directly, it
makes use of disguised method. Purpose of data collection is
not known. This method makes use of-
i. Focus Groups
ii. Depth Interview
iii. Case Study
b. Indirect Collection-Method
i. Projective Techniques
2. Quantitative Research- Quantitative Research quantifies the data and
generalizes the results from the sample to the population.

In Quantitative Research, data can be colleted by two methods:

1. Survey Method
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 2. Observation Method

5.DATA INTERPRETATION

1.Descriptive Statistics of group based on the preference of milk brand

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Interpretation
Most of the respondents prefer Milma brand i.e, 48%.
38% of respondents prefer Amul.
12% of respondents prefer Malanadu.
2% of respondents prefer Anchor.
None of them prefer A-one milk

2. Descriptive Statistics of group based on how Amul products are known

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Interpretation Majority of the respondents know Amul products by the source
of Advertisement i.e, 72%.
14% of respondents know Amul products through Family/Friends.
14% of respondents know Amul products through Company Promotions.
3. Descriptive Statistics of group based on Amul products consumption

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Interpretation Majority of the respondents prefer Amul Ice-cream i.e, 80%. 44%
of the respondents prefer Amul Milk.
42% of the respondents prefer Cheese/Butter.
24% of the respondents prefer Sweet curd,
24% of the respondents prefer Paneer.
2% of the respondents prefer Amul Cool Shake,
2% of the respondents prefer none.
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4.Descriptive Statistics of group based on perception whether Amul products
are worth the price

Interpretation Most of the respondents said that Amul products are worth the
price i.e. 66%.
6% responded ‗No‘.
28% responded ‗Maybe

5. Descriptive Statistics of group based on factors that affects the buying power
of Amul products

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 Interpretation Majority of them responded ‗Taste‘ as their factor i.e. 62%
20% of them responded ‗Brand Name‘ as the factor.
12% of them responded ‗Quantity‘ as the factor.
2% responded ‗None‘ as the factor.
2% responded ‗Price‘ as the factor, 2% responded ‗Other‘ as the factor.

6. Descriptive Statistics of group based on satisfaction with the quality of Amul

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 products

7.Descriptive Statistics of group based on whether Amul are reasonable priced compared to
competitors

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Interpretation
Most of the respondents said ‗Neutral‘ which means they don‘t have any
opinions i.e, 48%.
36% of them responded ‗Agree.‘
10% of them responded ‗Strongly Agree.‘
4% of them responded ‗Disagree‘
2% of them responded ‗Strongly Disagree.‘

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 6.HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Key points from this hypothesis:

 Focus on the cooperative model:

Amul's unique structure of directly sourcing milk from farmers through a

cooperative network is a key factor in its success.
 Market dominance:
The hypothesis suggests Amul holds a significant market share within the
Indian dairy FMCG industry.
 Affordable pricing:
Amul is known for providing quality products at accessible prices to consumers.
 Effective marketing and distribution:
The hypothesis highlights Amul's strong marketing campaigns and extensive
distribution network as critical factors in reaching customers.

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 7.CONCLUSION

Amul dominat presence in the dairy foods market has led to

Amul becoming a household name.AMUL is one of the most
successful business houses and other companies should learn
from amul how to do its business in a socially responsible
manner .In fact amul uses only 1 percent of its turnover for
promotions .This shows that it is not always necessary to spend
millions on promotion when you have creatively.

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 8.SUGGESTION

1) People use milk for various purposes like making Curd,

Lassi, Ice-cream besides Tea and for drinking purpose. So a
positive perception can be created to make them think that
amul milk is
best suited for those purposes.

2) Projector films may be shown to the villagers emphasizing

on the quality and the hygenity of amul milk. This would
help in
convincing the people & creating a favorable attitude.

3) Arrangement should be made to ensure regular supply

of amul milk to the consumers in new places once the
milk in introduced. If possible transportation facility
should also be
arranged to make it convenient for the retailers.

4) Suggestions & complaints made by retailers & consumers should

be given due attention to provide maximum satisfaction.
This could create and impression that amul cares for them

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2005). Research on

forecasting demand methods. It emphasizes the use of
structured methods over intuition and unstructured approaches,
recommending quantitative methods where sufficient data is
available and structured judgment methods otherwise.
Managers' domain knowledge should be integrated into
statistical forecasts.

2. Kamble, A., et al. (2006). Sales forecasting techniques for

the two-wheeler automobile industry. The study highlights the
importance of identifying target market categories and the
availability of easy loans for urban and rural customers.

3. Jelena, M., & Vesna, D. (2006). Sales forecasting

techniques in Serbia, categorized into qualitative and
quantitative methods. The paper discusses the advantages of
quantitative techniques in scenarios with access to historical
data and the support of computer software to reduce forecast
error.

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 QUESTIONNAIRE
1. Which Amul Product did you find most useful?
a) Amul Milk b) Amul Butter c) Amul Ice-cream
d) Amul Ghee e) Others

2. Marketing efforts of Amul compare to its competitor is?

a) Excellent b) Good c) Average d) Below average

3“On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to recommend our product
to a friend?”
b) 1 b) 2 c) 3 d) 4 e) 5

4.Do you think you received good value for money from Amul Products?
a) Yes b) No c) Maybe

5. What is your overall satisfaction rating with Amul company?

a) Very Satisfied b) Somewhat Satisfied c) Somewhat Dissatisfied
d) Very Dissatisfied

6.What is your brand preference for Dairy Products?

a) Amul b) Mother Dairy c) Haldiram d) Others

7.Which of these factors influence your buying behaviour of Dairy products?

a) Pricing b) Quality c) Advertisement d) Packing and Labelling

8.Have you ever had any complaint with Amul product?

b) Yes b) No

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