Global Warming

Introduction to Global Warming

Climate change is the huge threat to economic prosperity of Pakistan

As the sun rose over a small coastal village, the land looked completely different from how it
used to be. Fields that once grew green and full of crops were now dry and cracked. The river
that used to bring life to the village had almost dried up, and storms that used to bring gentle rain
now caused heavy floods. The villagers, watching their land change, wondered, “Will our
children even know this place as we do?”

This troubling change is a result of global warming. Global warming means that Earth's average
temperature is slowly rising because of gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap
heat in the atmosphere, warming the planet and changing weather patterns everywhere. Since the
late 1800s, Earth's temperature has gone up by about 1.1°C, and the effects are becoming more
serious every year..

A Real Threat to Life’s Existence Pakistan is among the 15 countries with the highest disaster
risk, according to the World Risk Index 2024. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events
have had severe impacts on ecosystems, sea levels, and food security. For example, Pakistan’s
cotton productivity dropped by 23% due to flooding in 2022, highlighting the real-time impacts
of climate change on the economy and agriculture.

Fiction or Fact? Despite some skepticism, the scientific consensus is overwhelming: 97% of
climate scientists agree global warming is real and primarily caused by human activity. Evidence
from NASA, IPCC, and reports like the World Risk Index show that global warming is
accelerating, with complex, interconnected risks that exacerbate poverty, inequality, and
vulnerability.

Current Efforts Nations worldwide are making efforts to mitigate climate change effects by
reducing emissions and shifting to renewable energy. However, Pakistan's climate risk
management is still developing; 70% of companies in Pakistan face fragmented processes in
climate strategy integration, limiting effective risk management. The country is projected to
encounter a 70 million tonne food shortage by 2025 and a 40% reduction in agriculture output by
2050 if climate action is insufficient. International reporting standards like IFRS S2 now
mandate businesses to disclose climate-related risks, creating both a challenge and an
opportunity for companies to adapt to a low-carbon economy.

Climate Profile of Pakistan

Box 2: Key Findings of Past Observed Trends of Climate Change Indicators
and Future Projections for Pakistan
1. During the last century, Pakistan’s average annual temperature increased by
0.57°C compared to 0.75°C for South Asia, and average annual precipitation
increased by 25%. The warming is mainly due to increase in winter temperature.
2. Heat wave days per year increased by 31 days in the period 1980 to 2007. Cold
waves decreased in northeastern and southern parts, and increased in western
and northwestern parts of the country.
3. Observed sea level rise along the Karachi coast was 1.1 millimeters per year in
the past century.
4. During 1960–2007, the following changes were noted:
• An increase of 0.6°C to 1.0°C in the mean temperature over the hyper arid
plains, arid coastal
areas, and mountains regions of Pakistan;
• A decrease of 10%–15% in winter and summer rainfall in the arid plains
and coastal areas;
• A rise of 18%–32% in the summer rainfall over the core monsoon region of
Pakistan;
• A decrease of 5% in relative humidity over Balochistan province;
• An increase of 0.5%-0.7% in solar radiation over the southern half of the
country;
• A decrease of 3%–5% cloud cover over central parts of Pakistan, and a
consequent increase of
0.9°C in temperature;
• The northern parts of the country outside monsoon region have suffered
from expanding
aridity;
• A decrease of 17% to 64% in rainfall observed during the seven strong El
Niño events in the last
100 years;
• The minimum temperature in summer over central parts of Pakistan has
shown a pronounced
warming trend while in the extreme north and south have shown a slight cooling
trend in some
climatic zones; and
• The coastal belt in general and the Indus delta in particular have not shown
any significant
warming or cooling trends.
Future Projections
• Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than
the global average.
• Projected temperature increase in northern parts is expected to be higher
than the southern
parts of the country.
• The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to increase
significantly.
• Pakistan’s rainfall projections do not indicate any systematic changing
trends.
• Major crop yields such as of wheat and rice are expected to decrease
significantly.
• Water availability per capita is projected to decrease to an alarming level.
• An increasing trend in the rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and
decreasing trend in the Lower Indus Basin.

This excerpt outlines the implementation mechanism for Pakistan’s National Climate Change
Policy, emphasizing coordinated efforts between federal, provincial, and local governments to
execute climate policies.

Widespread Impact of the 2022 Floods:

  The floods submerged one-third of Pakistan, affecting 33 million people, with half
being children.
 Most water systems in affected areas were damaged, forcing over 5.4 million people
to rely on contaminated water from ponds and wells.

 Impact on Education:

 Extreme weather in Sindh has led to 230,000 students affected by school closures.
 1,300+ schools are damaged, with 228 fully destroyed and over 450 schools non-
functional due to flood water.

 Children’s Safety and Displacement:

 76 lives have been lost in Sindh due to monsoon floods since July 1, with half of the
victims being children.
 140,000 children and families have been displaced across 10 districts.

 UNICEF’s Concerns and Actions:

 UNICEF’s Pakistan Representative Abdullah Fadil emphasized the urgency of

reopening schools and the risk of prolonged closures.
 UNICEF teams are conducting rapid needs assessments and collaborating with
government and local partners on short- and long-term recovery plans.

 Historical Context and Urgent Need for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure:

 Sindh suffered severely during the 2022 floods, with major damage to infrastructure, and
now faces repeated disruptions.
 UNICEF calls for climate-resilient education and services for children to ensure their
safety and continued learning.

 Global Climate Vulnerability of Children in Pakistan:

 Pakistan ranks 14th on UNICEF’s Children's Climate Risk Index (CCRI), indicating
children face extreme risks from climate change impacting their health, education, and
future.

According to World Bank

 Total Damages and Economic Losses: The assessment estimates total damages to exceed
USD 14.9 billion and total economic losses to reach about USD 15.2 billion. The estimated
needs for resilient rehabilitation and reconstruction are at least USD 16.3 billion.

 Most Affected Sectors: The Housing, Agriculture and Livestock, and Transport and
Communications sectors suffered the most damage, with losses of USD 5.6 billion, USD 3.7
billion, and USD 3.3 billion, respectively.
 Geographical Impact: Sindh province was the worst affected, accounting for nearly 70% of
total damages, followed by Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab.

 Human Impact: The floods affected 33 million people, resulting in more than 1,730 deaths,
with significant impacts on the poorest and most vulnerable districts. Stagnant floodwaters have
led to the spread of water-borne diseases, with 8 million displaced people facing a health crisis.

 Increased Poverty: The national poverty rate may increase by 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points,
potentially pushing an additional 8.4 to 9.1 million people below the poverty line.
Multidimensional poverty could increase by 5.9 percentage points, putting an extra 1.9 million
households at risk of non-monetary poverty.

 Impact on GDP: The floods are projected to result in a 2.2% loss in gross domestic product
(GDP) for FY22, with the agriculture sector expected to contract by 0.9% of GDP, affecting
related industries and services.

Here are 14 islands at risk of submerging due to climate change:

1. Maldives
2. Kiribati
3. Tuvalu
4. Marshall Islands
5. Seychelles
6. Palau
7. Solomon Islands
8. Tonga
9. Vanuatu
10. Micronesia
11. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
12. Bahamas
13. Fiji
14. French Polynesia

Definition of Human Development

In "The Poverty Curtain," Mahbub ul Haq defines human development as a

process that expands the choices and capabilities of individuals, allowing them
to lead fulfilling lives. It emphasizes not just economic growth but also the
improvement of people's well-being, education, health, and overall quality of
life. Human development focuses on enhancing human potential and ensuring
that individuals can participate fully in society.

Causes of Climate Change

1. Concentration of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Nitrogen Oxide, and Sulfur Dioxide:

The rise in greenhouse gas emissions is a primary driver of climate change. Globally,
 carbon dioxide levels have increased by over 40% since the pre-industrial era, mainly due
to burning fossil fuels. In Pakistan, emissions from industry and transportation contribute
significantly to air pollution, with major cities like Lahore facing severe smog issues
caused by nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide.
2. Excessive Use of Insecticides, Lubricants, and Fertilizers: The widespread application
of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture leads to soil degradation and water
pollution, affecting both local ecosystems and human health. In Pakistan, the agricultural
sector heavily relies on these chemicals, which not only harm the environment but also
reduce biodiversity.
3. Nuclear Radiation: Although nuclear power is considered a cleaner alternative to fossil
fuels, accidents or leaks can result in severe environmental damage and long-term health
risks. Globally, events like the Chernobyl disaster and the Fukushima meltdown have
raised concerns about nuclear safety. In Pakistan, the reliance on nuclear power is
growing, but the lack of stringent safety measures poses risks to both the population and
the environment.
4. Deforestation: The cutting down of forests for agriculture, urban development, and
logging contributes to increased carbon emissions and loss of biodiversity. Globally,
deforestation accounts for approximately 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions. In
Pakistan, deforestation rates are alarmingly high, with about 2% of forest cover lost
annually, leading to soil erosion and increased vulnerability to climate change.
5. Burning of Fossil Fuels: The combustion of fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and
industry is the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions. This contributes to
global warming, air pollution, and respiratory health issues. Pakistan relies heavily on
fossil fuels, with over 80% of its energy coming from oil, coal, and gas, significantly
impacting air quality and climate.
6. Chlorofluorocarbons and Depletion of the Ozone Layer: CFCs, used in refrigeration
and aerosol propellants, contribute to ozone layer depletion and are potent greenhouse
gases. The Montreal Protocol has successfully reduced CFC emissions globally, but
illegal production and use still pose threats. In Pakistan, efforts to eliminate these
substances are ongoing, but challenges remain due to enforcement and public awareness.
7. Explosion of Population: Rapid population growth leads to increased demand for
resources, energy, and land, exacerbating environmental pressures. Globally, the
population is projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. In Pakistan, the population has
surged to over 240 million, leading to urban overcrowding, increased waste generation,
and heightened competition for water and energy resources, all of which contribute to
climate change challenges.

Impacts of Climate Change

i. Melting of Polar Ice, Glaciers, and Ice Sheets of Greenland: The Arctic and Antarctic
regions are experiencing unprecedented ice melt, with estimates suggesting that Greenland's ice
sheet lost around 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019. This loss contributes
significantly to global sea level rise. In Pakistan, glaciers in the Himalayas, which are vital for
river systems, are also retreating, affecting water availability for millions.
ii. Rising Sea Level: Global sea levels have risen by about 8 inches since 1880, primarily due to
melting ice and thermal expansion of seawater. Coastal areas, including major cities like
Karachi, are at high risk. In Pakistan, rising sea levels threaten the livelihoods of millions,
particularly in low-lying regions like the Indus delta.

iii. Catastrophic Rains: Changes in weather patterns have led to more intense and erratic
rainfall globally. The 2022 floods in Pakistan were a stark example, displacing millions and
causing widespread devastation. Such extreme weather events are becoming more frequent,
challenging disaster response systems.

iv. Severe Hurricanes: Warmer ocean temperatures contribute to the intensity of hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season has become increasingly active, with stronger storms leading to
catastrophic damage. While Pakistan does not face hurricanes, the impact of severe storms in the
region can lead to flooding and increased vulnerability.

v. Frequent Natural Disasters: The frequency of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods,
and droughts, has risen significantly due to climate change. Globally, disasters have increased by
40% since 2000. In Pakistan, the country has faced multiple severe floods and droughts in recent
years, exacerbating humanitarian crises.

vi. Disaster Impact on Marine Life: Rising sea temperatures and acidification threaten marine
ecosystems, leading to coral bleaching and loss of biodiversity. Globally, 50% of coral reefs are
dead or at risk. Pakistan's coastline is home to vital marine life, and threats to these ecosystems
jeopardize local fisheries and economies.

vii. Encroachment of Coastal Areas: Rising sea levels lead to the encroachment of coastal
areas, resulting in loss of land and increased salinity in freshwater resources. This phenomenon is
evident in urban areas of Pakistan, where coastal infrastructure faces constant threats from
flooding and erosion.

viii. Ozone Depletion: Climate change exacerbates ozone depletion, which increases ultraviolet
radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Globally, the Montreal Protocol has made strides in
reducing harmful substances. In Pakistan, UV exposure is linked to increased skin cancer rates
and other health issues.

ix. Species Disappearance: Climate change threatens countless species, leading to extinction. It
is estimated that one in six species could face extinction if global temperatures rise by 2°C. In
Pakistan, habitat loss and climate change threaten species like the snow leopard and the Indus
dolphin, pushing them closer to extinction.

x. Loss of Biodiversity: Biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate, with over 1 million species
at risk globally. In Pakistan, the loss of biodiversity affects ecosystems and agriculture,
disrupting food systems and livelihoods dependent on healthy environments.

xi. Increase in Range of Diseases: Changes in climate affect disease patterns, expanding the
range of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. In Pakistan, rising temperatures
and erratic rainfall have led to outbreaks of these diseases, posing significant public health
challenges.

xii. Decline in Agricultural Production: Climate change significantly impacts agricultural

yields due to changes in precipitation patterns, soil degradation, and increased pests. Globally,
crop yields could decline by up to 30% by 2050. In Pakistan, agriculture is a crucial sector, and
farmers face increasing challenges from droughts and floods, threatening food security and rural
livelihoods.

Impact of Climate Change in Pakistan

In Pakistan, these factors have resulted in notable climate trends and challenges:

 Temperature and Precipitation Changes: Pakistan has observed an increase in average annual
temperature and precipitation over the last century, with significant regional variations.
 Extreme Weather Events: The frequency of heatwaves has increased, while cold waves have
become less common. This shift affects agriculture, water supply, and public health.
 Sea-Level Rise: Observed sea level rise along the Karachi coast poses risks to coastal
communities and ecosystems.
 Flooding and Drought: Increasing intensity and frequency of floods, along with extended
periods of drought, threaten food security and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable areas.

Pakistan to counter CC and GW

Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP)

Launched in 2019, the TBTTP aims to plant and regenerate 3.29 billion plants across Pakistan
over four years (2019-2023) with a budget of Rs 125.1843 billion. As of March 2023, Rs
3,296.683 million has been spent, resulting in the planting, regeneration, or distribution of
188.41 million plants from July to March 2023. In total, 2,027.01 million plants have been
successfully planted or distributed by March 2023.

Forests, Biodiversity, and Wildlife Resources in Pakistan

Pakistan faces significant challenges related to forests, biodiversity, and wildlife due to adverse
climatic conditions, rural poverty, and deforestation. With limited forest cover, the country is
highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. These natural resources are further pressured by
land use changes and habitat destruction. The rising population has led to increased consumption
of fuel wood and timber extraction. To improve this sector, continuous efforts and various
initiatives are essential.

Membership of International Network on Bamboo and Rattan (INBAR)

Pakistan has joined the International Bamboo and Rattan Organization (INBAR), an
intergovernmental body established in 1997 to promote the sustainable use of bamboo and rattan.
This membership will aid in the propagation and development of the bamboo value chain in
Pakistan. Currently, INBAR is conducting a study on Bamboo Sector Development in the
country, focusing on:

 Bamboo resource monitoring systems

 Bamboo market and value chain development
 Enabling policies and regulations to support bamboo for socioeconomic and environmental
advancement

Mitigating Forest Fires

The Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) has established a mechanism to mitigate forest fire
risks. In May 2022, it prepared Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) in consultation with
provincial and relevant stakeholders to prevent and control forest fires. Implementation plans
based on these SOPs have been operationalized across all provinces and territories to enhance
fire prevention and response efforts.

Saudi Green Initiative (SGI) and Middle East Green Initiative (MGI)

Pakistan has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
(KSA) to enhance cooperation in environmental initiatives. The country has welcomed the
launch of the "Saudi Green" and "Middle East Green" initiatives. A meeting of the Joint
Working Group was convened under the Economic pillar of the Saudi Pakistan Supreme
Coordination Council (SPSCC), where both parties agreed to collaborate on environmental
efforts, vegetation development, and afforestation projects.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) in Pakistan

Pakistan faces urgent challenges in water quality due to rapid urbanization and environmental
changes, compounded by a growing population that increases demand for safe drinking water. In
FY2023, the government allocated Rs 265 billion for WASH services, reflecting a 152%
increase in budgetary allocations since FY2019. Additionally, WASH expenditures rose by over
253% in FY2022 compared to FY2019, indicating a commitment to improving water quality and
sanitation services across the country.

An overview of overall WASH allocations for FY2023 in Pakistan reveals that highest
allocations have been made in Sindh province (38.3 percent), followed by Punjab (24.5 percent),
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (20.6 percent) and Balochistan (16.4 percent), respectively.

Forest Climate Leaders’ Partnership

Pakistan joined Forests and Climate Leaders’ Partnership as one of the members. The initiative is
led by the UK and was launched at the first Ministerial meeting held at COP-27 in Sharm el
Shaikh in November 2022.

National Tree Planting Campaign 2022

The National Tree Planting Campaign 2022 was initiated on August 14, 2022, to encourage
citizens to increase tree cover and support the natural forests in Pakistan. The campaign aimed to
plant 303.77 million trees during the Monsoon 2022 season, achieving a total of 181.79 million
trees planted. Following this, the Spring Tree Plantation Campaign 2023 was launched in
February 2023, with a target of planting 240.05 million trees.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27)

COP27 took place from November 6-20, 2022, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, with Pakistan's Prime
Minister leading the country's delegation. Key achievements include:

 Chairing the G-77 & China Group: Pakistan successfully advocated for the Loss and
Damage (L&D) Fund, emphasizing its leadership for developing nations.
 Global Shield Initiative: Pakistan became one of the first recipients of G-7 funding to
provide rapid disaster protection for climate-vulnerable countries.
 Global Fertilizer Challenge: A $135 million commitment was made for projects on
fertilizer efficiency, with Pakistan highlighted as a key focus.
 Adaptation Framework: Pakistan pushed for a Global Goal on Adaptation,
underscoring its need following recent floods.
 Santiago Network on L&D: An advisory board was established to support Loss and
Damage, reflecting Pakistan's ongoing advocacy.

National Clean Air Policy (NCAP)

In response to severe air pollution, particularly in urban areas like Lahore, which recorded
PM2.5 levels as high as 123 µg/m³ in 2019—24 times above WHO guidelines—Pakistan
launched the National Clean Air Policy (NCAP) in March 2023.

Objectives: The NCAP aims to enhance air quality by reducing pollution through coordinated
actions at national and provincial levels. It focuses on five priority sectors, each with specific
interventions:

1. Transport: Implement Euro-5 and Euro-6 fuel quality standards.

2. Industry: Enforce emission standards for industries.
3. Agriculture: Prevent the burning of agricultural residues.
4. Waste Management: Stop open burning of municipal solid waste.
5. Households: Promote low-emission cooking technologies.

Implementation Mechanism: Successful execution requires developing detailed

implementation plans at both federal and provincial levels, alongside resource allocation for
priority measures. Stakeholder engagement—including media, research institutions, civil society,
and advocacy groups—is crucial. The policy also encourages the most polluting industries to
adopt air pollution reduction practices as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
initiatives.

Pakistan Clean Air Action Plans

Pakistan faces severe air pollution, particularly in urban areas with hazardous levels year-round,
leading to winter smog, environmental impacts, and reduced crop yields.

The National Clean Air Policy offers guidelines for improving air quality, which provinces must
adapt into local action plans. The Ministry of Climate Change, supported by Clean Air Asia and
the Stockholm Energy Institute, has initiated these plans.

Key Findings: Implementing 13 identified mitigation actions could lead to:

 83% reduction in particulate matter emissions.

 21.9% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Implementation Plan

Pakistan aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 through updated NDCs. The
Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) has initiated federal and provincial plans to:

 Enhance policies and institutional arrangements.

 Identify funding sources and establish Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems.
 Raise awareness and develop a financial investment plan.
 Appoint focal persons for coordination across ministries and provinces.

Consultations are ongoing, and plans are under review with donor engagement for resource
mobilization.

Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM)

The Government of Pakistan (GoP) aims to establish voluntary carbon markets (VCM) to
mitigate climate change impacts and mobilize financing. VCM offers Pakistan a chance to offset
disaster-related costs and achieve its NDC targets while promoting investments in efficient
technologies.

Key aspects include:

 Framework Development: The Ministry of Climate Change is creating a framework for VCM to
enhance participation in the global carbon market.
 Regulatory Certainty: The framework will provide regulatory and political certainty for VCM
transactions.
  Digital Infrastructure: Plans include establishing a digital trade infrastructure for transparency,
efficiency, and risk mitigation in VCM transactions.

This initiative aims to support vulnerable communities with limited adaptive capacity to climate
change impacts.

Net Zero Targets

Pakistan's Net Zero strategy focuses on sustainable growth and environmental protection. Key
elements include:

 Evidence-Based Goals: Setting targets based on opportunities and stakeholder engagement.

 Programmatic Actions: Implementing sector-specific transitions to achieve Net Zero.
 Long-Term Vision: Supported by low greenhouse gas emission strategies with periodic
checkpoints.
 Stakeholder Involvement: Engaging stakeholders in developing realistic targets aligned with the
NDC 2021 and Vision 2025.

The plan highlights "Just Transition" and aims to leverage private sector potential.

Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) Inventory

In 2022, the Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) developed Pakistan's first National Inventory
for Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) with stakeholder input. The inventory outlines
priority actions to reduce SLCP emissions, including:

 Vehicle Management: Improved inspection, maintenance, and upgrading fuel quality standards
to Euro-5 or Euro-6.
 Electric Vehicles: Increased adoption of two/three-wheeler electric vehicles.
 Public Transport: Development of mass transit systems and better traffic management.
 Fuel Efficiency: Promotion of low carbon technologies in rail, maritime, and aviation sectors.
 Urban Forestry: Enhancement of green spaces and urban forestry initiatives.
 Industrial Compliance: Emission control through stricter adherence to standards and clean
technology upgrades, especially in brick kilns.
 Crop Management: Banning crop burning and controlling emissions from threshing and tilling.
 Waste Management: Prohibition of open waste burning and improvement in overall waste
management practices.
 Clean Cooking: Use of efficient cookstoves and access to clean energy for indoor cooking and
heating.
 Energy Efficiency: Promotion of energy efficiency and alternative energy across all sectors.

National Adaptation Plan (NAP)

Pakistan is developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to enhance resilience to climate

change, set to be established by June 2023. The NAP will focus on integrating adaptation
measures into national policies and enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Key priority areas include:

 Water Resources
 Agriculture and Livestock
 Forestry
 Human Health
 Disaster Preparedness
 Urban Resilience
 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
 Gender

Natural Capital Accounts (NCA)

The Ministry of Climate Change (MoCC) aims to strengthen environmental sustainability

through Natural Capital Accounts (NCA). A World Bank report indicates Pakistan may face a
15% GDP decline by 2030 due to natural capital loss. MoCC's NCA goals include:

 Updating NDCs under the Paris Agreement.

 Monitoring Pakistan’s National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP).
 Prioritizing reforestation in the Ten Billion Tree Project.
 Promoting community engagement and green jobs.
 Securing sustainable finance opportunities and reporting on Sustainable Development Goals

NCA organizes data on natural capital stocks and their societal benefits, with pilot
studies supported by the World Bank in Chitral Gol and Ziarat.

National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP)

The National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) was approved in November 2019, led by the
Ministry of Climate Change. The initiative aims to save Pakistan between $2.2 billion and $3.7
billion on oil bills from 2020 to 2030 and create 35,000 to 40,000 jobs. It targets a 30% electric
vehicle share on the road by 2030, contributing to reduced emissions, improved air quality, and
health benefits.

Additionally, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has approved a scheme for e-Bikes
and e-Rickshaws, providing up to 300,000 units to students and low-income groups at 0%
interest for three years. This initiative aims to significantly cut oil imports, as approximately 45%
of annual oil imports (around $4.1 billion) are used for conventional bikes and rickshaws.

Climate Adaptation and Resilience (SAR)

The Strengthening Climate Adaptation and Resilience (SAR) project in Pakistan is a key
initiative to tackle climate change challenges. It aligns with the "Pakistan 2025: One Nation -
One Vision" framework, focusing on local adaptation efforts and scaling up through international
climate finance. The SAR project supports the Government of Pakistan in three main areas:
 1. Climate Risk Assessments
2. Planning and financial instruments for climate risk management
3. Accessing international climate finance

GIZ has pledged up to €10 million in grant support to foster an enabling environment for
implementing climate resilience and adaptation initiatives in Pakistan.

Climate Impacts on Government Fiscal Risk

Climate change poses two main fiscal risks: physical risks and transition risks.

 Physical Risks: These include damage from climate events such as:
o The 2018 drought in Balochistan caused up to 80% crop loss, leading to food insecurity.
o The 2021 drought in Sindh affected over 5 million people and incurred losses of Rs 100
billion.
o The August 2022 floods disrupted economic activities and decreased tax revenues,
straining public finances.

Natural disasters create contingent liabilities requiring significant government spending on

social protection and infrastructure repair, impacting revenue for state-owned enterprises like
Pakistan Railways.

 Transition Risks: These arise from the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, potentially
leading to stranded assets and higher costs during the transition to greener technologies.

Together, these risks can have lasting effects on economic growth and public finances.

Measurements to Counter Climate Change

i. Use of Renewable Energy: Transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and
hydropower is crucial. Globally, renewable energy accounted for about 29% of total electricity
generation in 2020. In Pakistan, the government aims to increase the share of renewables to 60%
by 2030, tapping into its vast solar and wind potential.

ii. Energy Conservation: Energy efficiency measures can significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that energy efficiency
improvements could lead to a 40% reduction in global energy-related CO2 emissions by 2040. In
Pakistan, initiatives like the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act aim to promote
energy-saving technologies.

iii. Reduction of Greenhouse Gases: Countries are setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. The Paris Agreement seeks to limit global warming to below 2°C, with many nations
pledging to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Pakistan has committed to reducing its
emissions by 50% by 2030, contingent on international support.
iv. Saline Resistant Crops: Developing and promoting saline-resistant crop varieties can help
agriculture adapt to changing conditions. Research shows that these crops can sustain yields even
in saline soils, which are becoming more prevalent due to rising sea levels. Pakistan has
initiatives underway to develop such crops, crucial for its agricultural sector.

v. Cyclone Shelters: Constructing cyclone shelters is vital for protecting vulnerable

communities from extreme weather events. Countries like Bangladesh have invested in
thousands of cyclone shelters, significantly reducing casualties during storms. Pakistan can adopt
similar strategies to enhance resilience along its coastal areas.

vi. Building Coastal Infrastructure: Strengthening coastal infrastructure to withstand flooding

and erosion is essential. Countries are investing in sea walls, levees, and managed retreat
strategies to protect coastal communities. In Pakistan, improved coastal management plans are
being developed to mitigate the impacts of rising sea levels.

vii. Application of Climate Change Technologies: Integrating innovative technologies, such as

climate-smart agriculture and early warning systems, can help communities adapt to climate
impacts. Globally, investments in climate technologies are expected to reach $2.5 trillion by
2030. Pakistan is exploring smart agricultural practices to enhance resilience.

viii. Forest Planning: Sustainable forest management is crucial for carbon sequestration and
biodiversity preservation. Globally, forests absorb approximately 30% of annual CO2 emissions.
In Pakistan, initiatives like the "Ten Billion Tree Tsunami" aim to restore forests and combat
deforestation while enhancing biodiversity.

ix. Technology Transfer: Facilitating technology transfer from developed to developing

countries is essential for addressing climate change effectively. Global frameworks, such as the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), emphasize the need for
sharing technology and knowledge. Pakistan can benefit from international partnerships to access
climate-resilient technologies.

Policy Considerations for Climate Change Resilience:

1. Integrate Climate Risks into Fiscal Policy: Incorporate climate resilience and mitigation into
fiscal policies, budgetary processes, and spending.

2. Climate-Proof Economic Reforms: Ensure economic reforms balance growth with climate
resilience to prevent setbacks from disasters.

3. Innovative Climate Financing: Explore new financing mechanisms and improve access to
domestic and international climate funds.

4. Debt Sustainability & Climate Risks: Include climate risks in debt management and scenario
planning to protect against shocks.
5. Strengthen C-PIMA: Implement the Climate-Public Investment Management Assessment to
integrate resilience into public investments.

6. Community-Focused Resilience: Prioritize community resilience by balancing immediate

disaster response with long-term adaptation.

7. Engage Global Climate Initiatives: Leverage international programs, like the IMF’s Resilience
and Sustainability Trust, for long-term climate financing.

8. Align Debt Strategy with Climate Goals: Shift toward a climate-smart debt strategy that
incorporates resilience into economic planning.

9. Capacity Building: Enhance capacity to address climate challenges through targeted programs
like the IMF’s Climate Change Capacity Building initiative.