Q.
State and illustrate Addition and Multiplication Theorem of probability.
Ans. Addition Theorem---A compound event is any event combining two or more simple events. The notation for addition rule is: P(A or B) = P(event A occurs or event B occurs or they both occur). When finding the probability that event A occurs or event B occurs, find the total numbers of ways A can occurs and the number of ways B can occurs, but find the total in such a way that no outcome is counted more than once. General addition rule is : P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B), where P(A and B) denotes that A and B both occur at the same time as an outcome in a trial procedure. It is a special addition rule that shows that A and B cannot both occur together, so P(A and B) becomes 0: If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A) or P(B)= P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Addition Rule The addition rule is a result used to determine the probability that event A or event B occurs or both occur. The result is often written as follows, using set notation:
where: P(A) = probability that event A occurs P(B) = probability that event B occurs
= probability that event A or event B occurs
= probability that event A and event B both occur
For mutually exclusive events, that is events which cannot occur together:
=0 The addition rule therefore reduces to
= P(A) + P(B) For independent events, that is events which have no influence on each other:
The addition rule therefore reduces to
Example Suppose we wish to find the probability of drawing either a king or a spade in a single draw from a pack of 52 playing cards. We define the events A = 'draw a king' and B = 'draw a spade' Since there are 4 kings in the pack and 13 spades, but 1 card is both a king and a spade, we have:
= 4/52 + 13/52 - 1/52 = 16/52
So, the probability of drawing either a king or a spade is 16/52 (= 4/13). See also multiplication rule.
Multiplication Rule The multiplication rule is a result used to determine the probability that two events, A and B, both occur. The multiplication rule follows from the definition of conditional probability. The result is often written as follows, using set notation:
where: P(A) = probability that event A occurs P(B) = probability that event B occurs
= probability that event A and event B occur P(A | B) = the conditional probability that event A occurs given that event B has occurred already P(B | A) = the conditional probability that event B occurs given that event A has occurred already For independent events, that is events which have no influence on one another, the rule simplifies to:
That is, the probability of the joint events A and B is equal to the product of the individual probabilities for the two events.