Water availability, use and

challenges in Pakistan
Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin
and impact of climate change
Water availability, use and
challenges in Pakistan
Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin
and impact of climate change

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Islamabad, 2021
Required citation:
Habib, Z., Wahaj, R. 2021. Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan – Water sector challenges in the Indus Basin and impact
of climate change. Islamabad. FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb0718en

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Abstract

This working paper takes stock of Pakistan's water resource availability, delineating
water supply system and its sources including precipitation and river flows, and the
impact of increasing climatic variability on the water supply system. In particular, the
paper focuses on the current water usage and requirements in the agricultural sector,
and how changing climatic conditions will affect the consumption patterns. With inflows
expected to become more variable in the coming years, the severity of climatic
extremities will become more pronounced, driving up water demands in addition to the
demand increase from a rising population and urbanization. Over extraction of
groundwater resources is also disturbing the water calculus and pushing the country
towards a critical demand-supply gap.

Pakistan's water sector remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. To ensure
Pakistan is adequately prepared to deal with the changing climatic realities, it is
important to understand the nexus between water availability, agricultural productivity,
and climatic variability. The current paper has endeavoured to highlight the same
indicating the existing availability of water based on a single river system which is Indus
Basin System and its tributaries, future projections of water requirements for crops,
livestock, forest, rangelands, ecological and municipal sectors, and the challenges
Pakistan faces in accommodating the increasing demand for water from competing
sectors. Further, limited storage capacity, a debilitated infrastructure, and poor water
conservation practices that are contributing towards the degradation of water quality
and loss.

In light of the analysis conducted in this paper, it is clear that due to competing
pressures of water demand from different sectors and a widening demand-supply gap,
there is a need to guide the shift from irrigation to water management to address the
challenges that come with increasing climatic variability and water scarcity. Some key
recommendations are proposed signaling the need to adopt a more holistic approach
towards water management and conservation, which takes into account the available
resources, its usage, challenges and projected water requirements in the future and
what needs to be done to ensure Pakistan is able to boost its agricultural productivity
without drying out its water resources.

iii
Contents

Abstract iii
Acknowledgements vii
Introduction 1
Water sources of Pakistan and impact of climate change 3
Two small hydrological units outside Indus Basin 3
Indus basin 3
Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) 4
Indus glaciers 6
Rain and precipitation 6
Groundwater 8
Degradation of water and land resources 10
Seasonal flows and water availability 11
Indus Basin River 11
Climate change impacts on small stream flows (an example) 14
Renewable water resources of Pakistan 15
Current water usage in agriculture and its requirement 16
Crop water requirements 16
Livestock sector water requirements 18
Water used by forest, range land and ecological demands 19
Municipal water requirements 19
Water loss and productivity 21
Water loss in agriculture 21
Low water productivity 22
Financial sustainability of the water sector 24
Future projection of water requirements 24
Information and data gaps 27
Conclusion & recommendations 30
Recommendations 31
References 33

v
Figures
Figure 1: Population vis-à-vis per capita water availability 2
Figure 2: Schematic diagram of the Indus Basin 5
Figure 3: Mean annual temperature and precipitation projections in Pakistan
under two RCPs 7
Figure 4: Spatial map of groundwater abstraction in irrigated Indus Basin 9
Figure 5: Historical flow of three western rivers 1937 to 2018. Kabul river
flows included in Indus flows at Kalabagh 12
Figure 6: Eastern rivers inflows from 1937 to 2018 12
Figure 7: Historical flows projected into the future (MAF/yr) 14
Figure 8: Mean annual discharge at Aru hydrological station 15
Figure 9: Sectoral water withdrawal from AQUASTAT main database 16
Figure 10: Total cropped areas and net sown area in Pakistan over time 18
Figure 11: Rural and urban household water supply projections 20
Figure 12: Estimated municipal water requirements 20
Figure 13: Climate change impacts on water demand by 1C and 3 C increase
in temperature 26
Figure 14: Comparison of five water demand scenarios against baseline period
of 2015 26

Tables
Table 1: Western and eastern river Inflows BCM 11
Table 2: Change in total glacier area of Lidder watershed and Kolahoi glacier
over time 14
Table 3: Baseline agriculture water requirements
(billion cubic meters -BCM) 17
Table 4: Potential water requirements of major crops estimated using
CROPWAT 17
Table 5: Projected water requirements livestock and poultry 19
Table 6: Top 10 countries' water withdrawals in 2010 22
Table 7: Comparison of water productivity in agriculture 23
Table 8: Controlled population (1.7 percent to 0.5 percent in 2050) and
reasonable economic growth - water requirements at the water use
level (farm in case of agriculture) 25
Table 9: Gaps in the estimation of the gross water resources, water
availability and water uses 28

vi
Acknowledgements

The report was has been prepared by Zaigham Habib, Water Specialist, FAO Consultant
and Robina Wahaj, Land and Water Officer, FAO Land and Water Division with
contributions from Hideki Kanamaru, Natural Resources Officer, FAO Regional Office for
Asia and the Pacific, Ana Heureux, Junior Professional Officer, FAO, Climate and
Environmental Division, Abdul Wajid Rana, Program Leader, IFPRI- Pakistan. The authors
are grateful to the technical reviewer Jippe Hoogeveen, Senior Officer, FAO Land and
Water Division. Efforts of Amber Pervaiz, Programme Development Specialist, Consultant,
FAO Pakistan for the professional editing of the report are also acknowledged. Errors are
the responsibility only of the authors, and this paper reflects the opinions of the authors,
and not the institutions, which they represent or with which they are affiliated.

vii
Introduction
Pakistan is one of the 36 most water-stressed countries in the world – withdrawing over 70
percent of total renewable water resources (Map 1)- with limited quantities of surface
(228 billion cubic meters: BCM1) and groundwater (about 62 BCM2). Pakistan's latest
population estimates 207.78 million—of which 63.6 percent live in rural areas- making the
per capita water availability reduced further to 1 188 m3/year from 5 237 m3/year in
1962 (Figure 1). The interprovincial disparity in population distribution vis-à-vis water
availability makes this equation even more complex. The country's water stress is
influenced by its increasing population, reliance on a single river system (Indus River Basin),
and the increasing impacts of a changing climate.

Pakistan's gross freshwater withdrawal is 74.4 percent of the total renewable water
resources. Pakistan withdraws around 65 BCM groundwater in the freshwater zone at a
rate higher than the recharge . An excessive and extended abstraction of an aquifer is
causing fusion of the fresh and saline zone and secondary salination. In addition, degraded
quality of ground as well as freshwater due to contamination by agricultural residues from
fertilizers and pesticides, and industrial and municipal effluents is another dimension of
water scarcity being faced by Pakistan.

Map 1: Water scarcity by major River Basin

Conforms to UN Map No. 4170 Rev. 19, October 2020 and the map is taken from GlobWat – a global water
balance model to assess water use in irrigated agriculture publication.

Water stress per major River Basin expressed as a percentage of incremental evaporation
due to irrigation over generated groundwater and surface water resources, Mollweide
Projection, FAO, 2016.

1
1 BCM = 0.81 Million Acre Feet (MAF). AQUASTAT data.
2
AQUASTAT data. About 14 bcm rainfall recharge and 48 bcm recharge from river, irrigation network and
other uses

1
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Figure 1: Population vis-à-vis per capita water availability

Source: FAO. 2016. AQUASTAT Main Database. Accessed on 6 Nov 2017; and Provisional Summary
Results of 6th Population and Housing Census 20173.

Challenged by uncertainties, the farmers not only tend to grow cash crops like sugarcane
and rice which require relatively more water but also over-irrigate their crops when water is
available as the water supply is skewed towards five summer months when 70 percent of
the surface flows are generated. The inefficient irrigation also results from poor land
levelling resulting in low distribution uniformity and rather high farm losses (in the range of
30-40 percent ) in the areas where the infrastructure is dilapidated. High demand-supply
gap and inefficient performance of the irrigation network results in inequitable access to
water—small and the tail-end landholders getting less water. All these factors contribute to
the low water productivity in Pakistan (0.78 USD/m3).

Water demands of the urban, industrial and commercial sectors are locally managed and
are increasingly going beyond the safe water supply limits causing local depletion of
surface and groundwater resources. Deteriorating water quality of surface and
groundwater resources is an increased risk for health. Despite numerous water supply and
sanitation schemes, domestic and urban water supply remains a challenge.
Information about the water used in the industry is sketchy, similarly, the data about
commercial and business uses. These sectors are increasingly using surface water, like
sugarcane and fertilizer plants, urban transport. A proper accounting of water demand and
supply outside the agriculture sector is a pre-requisite to effective water management.

The water tariffs are extremely low in all water use sectors impairing sustainable
operations, maintenance and modernization of the infrastructure. The low economic return
from the agriculture sector are not only productivity interrelated, but agriculture and land
management need to address socio-economic inequalities. The low storage capacity and
high conveyance losses can be attributed to inadequate asset management and
insufficient financial resources due to nominal irrigation tariff and poor cost recovery.
3
Assuming constant availability of 246.8 BCM of freshwater and groundwater

2
Climate Change (CC) is an emerging challenge for Pakistan as it is expected to influence
the freshwater supply and water demand, both. There is sufficient evidence that global
warming is affecting Himalayan glaciers and Asian monsoon (various publications of
IICIMOD). The climate change impact on the hydrological cycle needs to be properly
understood for the management of extreme events like floods and droughts, and,
protection of surface water resources. The sectoral water demands are projected to be
equally affected by a rise in temperature. Increased water competition among the sectors
and regions is the biggest challenge Pakistan is going to face.

Weak policy frameworks coupled with a lack of coordination among stakeholders and
institutions has led to scanty ownership of reforms process and regulatory enforcement.
Pakistan has launched its National Water Policy in 2018 followed by the Provincial Water
policies. The eighteenth amendment and independent provincial water policies and
strategies could be another challenge for coherent management and development of water
resources in various sectors. The long-term and short-term implementation plans will be an
important milestone.

Water sources of Pakistan and impact of climate change

Two small hydrological units outside Indus Basin

Balochistan province of Pakistan hosts two independent hydrological units covering about
35 percent area of the Province. The Kharan desert stretches over 48 051 sq. km barren
land from the Alborz mountains (Iran) in the northern direction to the plateau in Balochistan
around 1200 kilometers to the southeast. The entire area of the desert has inland drains
and dry lakes. The largest dry lake of Balochistan is located in this desert called Hamun-i-
Mashkel. The average rainfall in the desert is about 100 mm annually. The Mashkel and
Marjen rivers are the principal sources of water in the basin. The Marjen is a minor tributary
to the Mashkel. The water is discharged into the Hamun-i-Mashkel lake in the southwest,
on the border with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The arid Makran coast, along the Arabian
Sea, covers 17 percent of the territory in its southwestern part (Balochistan province). The
Hob, Porali, Hingol, and Dasht are the principal rivers in this coastal zone.

The estimated gross runoff of these two basins is 8.4 bcm, which is usually in the form of
flash floods depending upon the rainfall.

Indus Basin

The water sources of Pakistan include surface water, rain, groundwater, and glacial melts.
4
The surface water-resources of Pakistan are mainly from the Indus River , which is a major
4
The Indus River is about 2 800 kilometres (km) long, with 2 682 km in Pakistan. Its alluvial plain area is
about 207 200 km2, while its deltaic area is about 20 000 km2. It originates in the Tibetan tableland at Singi
Kahad spring, on Kailas Parbat (mountain) near Mansarwar Lake. It then passes through the Himalayan
range, and, collects runoff from the Hindu Kush and Sulaiman ranges. Its annual water runoff is about 200
cubic kilometers, and sediment discharge is approximately 200 billion kilograms yearly (Pakistan Water
Gateway; accessed 29 November 2011)

4
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

5 6
trans-boundary river in Asia with nine tributaries . Glacier/snowmelt and precipitation in the
Upper Indus Basin are the main sources of flow in the Indus river network. The Indus River
has two large western tributaries (Jhelum and Chenab) and two eastern tributaries (Ravi
and Sutlej) which enter into Pakistan from India. One of the western tributaries, the Kabul
River is shared with Afghanistan; its watershed starts in Pakistan, traverses through the
Kabul valley and then re-enters into Pakistan, close to Nowshera. Under the Indus Water
Treaty, signed between Pakistan and India in 1960, the eastern rivers, Ravi and Sutlej were
allocated to India; only flood runoff is discharged into Pakistan over the course of a couple
of weeks after India built storages in the upper reaches of the rivers. Resultantly, there can
be years of no flows in these rivers.

Based on the stream hydrology and morphology, the Indus River can be broadly divided
into three segments: (i) the upstream segment, from the Singi Khahad spring down to
Jinnah Barrage; (ii) the midstream segment, between Jinnah and Guddu barrages; (iii) and
the downstream segment, from Guddu Barrage to the Arabian Sea. The upstream
segment is largely a hilly catchment area; the midstream segment is an upper floodplains
area dominated by a braided pattern of channels and tributary inflows; and the
downstream segment is a lower floodplains area with flat topography, a meandering
channel pattern, and deltas. The upper Indus Basin catchment is further sub-divided into
four zones based on the basin's geophysical and hydro-climatic characteristics (Hewitt,
1989): zone one - more than 5 500 m above sea level (asl); zone two - 4 500–5 500 m asl;
zone three, 3 000–4 000 m asl; and zone four, 1 000–3 000 m asl . The major ablation
zone contributing to the seasonal runoff is between 5500 m to 3000 m.

Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS)

Pakistan relies on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) for its basic food security and
water supply for all sectors of the economy. IBIS is one of the largest contiguous irrigation
systems in the world and irrigates about 18 million hectares (ha) of land in Pakistan.
IBIS is the backbone of the country's agricultural economy (see Figure 2). It is with three
major multipurpose storage reservoirs (Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma), 19 barrages, 12
inter-river link canals, 45 major irrigation canal commands (about 56 000 km) and more
than 120 000 km of watercourses in tandem with vast and growing process of
groundwater extraction through private tube-wells delivering water to farms and other
productive uses.

The infrastructure developed under the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 has helped improve
water resource availability basin-wide increasing canal diversions from 83 BCM in 1949/50
to a maximum level of 137 BCM in 1984-87, which has declined to 130 BCM because of
storage loss. The total storage capacity in the Indus Basin was 23.3 BCM, which includes
5
Others include the Amu Darya (Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), Amur (China and the Russian
Federation), Brahmaputra (Bangladesh, China and India), Euphrates (Iraq, Syria, and Turkey), Ganges
(Bangladesh and India), Mekong (Cambodia, China, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar,
Thailand, and Viet Nam), and the Tigris (Iraq, Syria, and Turkey).
6
Five of them are on the left bank with upper catchments of Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej in India while Chenab and
Jhelum are in Pakistan. The main right bank tributaries are the Gomal, Kabul, Swat and Kurram rivers.

5
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

11.9 BCM of Tarbela, 10.5 BCM of Mangla and 0.87 BCM of Chashma which is around 14
percent against the world average storage capacity 35-40 percent. But due to silting, and
lack of live storage capacity it has been reduced to about 15 BCM showing a loss of 35
percent, which is for 30 days requirement.

Figure 2: Schematic diagram of the Indus Basin

6
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Indus glaciers
The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) began monitoring the
glaciers of Northern Pakistan in the 1980s with the help of Wilfrid Laurier University, the
University of British Columbia in Canada, and the University of Manchester in the UK. The
measurements show that glacier runoff and snowmelt from the Himalaya Karakoram
Hindukush (HKH) mountain ranges contribute a total of 50 to 80 percent of water
availability in the country.

(Bocchiola, 2015) and (Akram, 2016) carried out detailed literature reviews with mention of
the reports about HKH and the Upper Indus from the period between IPCC3 and IPCC5.
Mountain glaciers worldwide retreated during the last one hundred years ; the glaciers in
the HKH region are reported to be receding faster than those in any other part of the
world. A rapid decline in glacier area is reported throughout the greater Himalayas and
most of mainland Asia and is widely attributed to global warming (Ageta & and Kadota,
1992); (Solomon, et al., 2007).

Such a rapid decline in the glacier area means that the flows of the Indus River System
may decrease up to 30-40 percent over the second half of the 21st century (World Bank
Report, 2006). The glacier mass balance budget in the Karakoram positively affected the
2003–2008 specific mass balance for the entire HKH region, estimated by Kääb et al.,
(2012) into −0.21 ± 0.05 m yr−1 of water equivalent.

Accelerated ice melting may lead to an increased risk of floods and hazards related to
glaciers (e.g., glacial lake outburst floods, icefalls, and crevasses) in the following decades.
By the end of the century (2071-2100), the glacial extent is expected to have decreased
significantly, reducing the contribution of glacial melt, and, therefore, total water availability
across the whole Indus Basin.

Lutz et al., (2016) used a fully distributed Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model to
simulate the climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Indus Basin. Two of their
conclusions are important: (i) the large uncertainty in projection of climate change impacts
till mid of the century, like glacier extent, precipitation; and (ii) glacier area decrease
considerably during 21st century even in the wet scenarios projecting large increases in
precipitation, because of an ample rise in temperature.

Rain and precipitation

The PMD analysis of CORDEX experiments and GCISC's downscaling analysis agree that
rainfall projections are highly variable in both spatial and temporal domains (Figure 3). Area
average rainfall projection over Pakistan shows a large inter-annual variability. Ali (2018)
reports, based on downscaled 14 GCM projections, more intense extreme rainfall events
are expected in the monsoon region and northern Pakistan, suggesting increased flood
risks. It is also found that consecutive dry days (CDD) will increase while consecutive wet
days (CWD) will decrease.

7
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 3: Mean annual temperature and precipitation projections in Pakistan

under two RCPs

Statistical downscaling of climate projections at the station level shows that a few distinct
precipitation trends in the project areas of Punjab and Sindh provinces. In Sindh, there will
be a 20 percent or more increase in total precipitation later in the 21st century. The number
of days with precipitation exceeding 20mm will also increase in Sindh in the late century.
On the other hand, in Punjab, the precipitation trend is not clear, indicating possible
increases or decreases for different climate models and locations within the province.
In Pakistan, major flooding events are associated with heavy rainfall during the summer
monsoon period. The expectation of an increase in large storm events is consistent with
global hydrologic dynamics (IPCC, 2012). Each 1°C rise in air temperature allows the
atmosphere to hold 7 percent more moisture.

The warming of land and sea surface temperatures also leads to more moisture
evaporation causing global warming. As a result, more moisture will enter the atmosphere,
increasing the potential for larger storm events. Based on the research conducted on this
issue suggests that such a trend is emerging in Pakistan, with an increased volume of
precipitation falling on fewer rainy days (Parry et al., 2017). Data from the PMD covering
the years 1913–2016 indicate that the ten largest rainfall events in the recorded history in
the country have all occurred since 2001.

8
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Groundwater

Groundwater has evolved as a reliable water resource in all of Pakistan's

water use sectors. Industrial and domestic supplies almost predominantly rely
on groundwater pumping (sometimes through an artificially developed
recharge zone adjacent to a surface waterway). In agriculture, groundwater
compensates for the shortage of surface supplies. Riverine areas extensively
use fresh aquifers during the dry season.

Globally, Pakistan is the fourth largest user of groundwater according to a

recent report by the National Groundwater Association of the United States of
America (2015). 'Facts about Global Groundwater' shows that India extracts
water from aquifers at a rate of 251 km /year, followed by China and the USA,
both extracting 111 km/year, and then by Pakistan, which extracts 65
km/year. As a percentage of total available water resources, Pakistan has the
highest reliance on groundwater.

A basin-level estimate of groundwater using hydrological modelling with the

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was carried out by Cheema et al.,
(2012). Spatial presentation of the model output is generated using remote
sensing information and GIS data, as shown in (Figure 4). The study
concludes: “Irrigation is the largest consumer of water in the Indus basin
that is using both surfaces (113 km or 434 mm) and groundwater (68 km or
262 mm) to meet crop water requirements.”

9
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 4: Spatial map of groundwater abstraction in irrigated Indus basin

Source: Cheema (2013)

10
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Currently, around 1.355 million small capacity private tube-wells are operating in Pakistan,
out of which 1.02 million are located in Punjab, extracting 52 BCM of groundwater
(Qureshi et al., 2010). These tube-wells (exclusively) and combined with canal water
irrigated 19 percent and 42 percent of cultivated land, respectively. Uncontrolled and
unregulated extraction of groundwater in excess of recharge in the freshwater zone is
lowering the water tables making groundwater inaccessible in 5 percent, and 15 percent of
the irrigated areas of Punjab and Balochistan provinces, respectively, which are likely to
reach 15 and 20 percent, if the current trend continues. Declining aquifer levels force
farmers towards deep electric tubewells, increasing the cost of groundwater pumping and
making water inaccessible for smallholders.

Degradation of water and land resources

The water quality of rivers, lakes, and canals has been degrading. The causes of surface
water degradation include the direct discharge of city and industrial effluence into water
bodies, ineffective and limited surface drainage networks and the trans-boundary inflow of
polluted water. A few examples of River pollution:

Toxic industrial and domestic effluent from India and Pakistan is dumped into the Ravi river,
about 10 drains of the provincial capital releasing industrial and municipal waste is also
dumped into it. More than 450 industrial units are pumping untreated toxic water into the
drains at different points. An estimated wastewater discharge into the river is 315 m/s
daily . EPA estimated more than 594 tons per day of the organic load is discharged into
7
the river Ravi (Pak EPA, 2010) .

Ÿ The untreated municipal and industrial waste from the District Peshawar, Mardan,
Nowshera, and Charsadda is being disposed of into different drains, which finally fall
into the Kabul River (Imran, Bukhari, & Gul, 2018).

Ÿ Anthropogenic activities in agriculture and industries cause discharges of fertilizers,

pesticides, chemicals, heavy metals, and pathogens that can degrade the water quality
and can cause negative effects on human health. Fertilizers and pesticides used in the
agricultural areas are washed off and drained into surface and groundwater aquifers.

Ÿ The waste-water systems in the urban areas contribute to water pollution by production
and conveyance of untreated municipal sewerage which pollutes freshwater bodies and
drinking water supply. Water affected both qualitatively and quantitatively making it
hazardous for human use. the effects of deterioration are intensified as a large volume of
untreated effluents from agricultural, industrial, domestic, and commercial areas enter
into rivers.

The increase in temperature can be linked to bacterial growth, high turbidity, low efficiency
of coagulants, and re-growth of germs, mosquitoes and other water pollutants. The
7
Environment Protection Department. Environmental Monitoring of River Ravi EPA Laboratory December,
2009. 2010. Available online: https://www.epd.punjab.gov.pk/Reports

11
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

groundwater quality profile of Pakistan's surface water bodies has a strong north-south
trend. While, over-extraction of groundwater and secondary salinization8 is increasing in
heavily populated area fresh-aquifer regions, especially command areas of the eastern
rivers. Water pollution is expected to increase temperature and decrease rainfall in high
water stress regions.

Seasonal flows and water availability

Indus Basin River

River flows of the Indus and its tributary rivers are measured for accounting and distribution
purposes after they cross the watershed at the River Monitoring (RIM) Stations. The RIM
stations are located at the first barrage system of a river, which are starting points for the
water distribution system as well. More than 75 percent of total river flows generated
outside Pakistan, while 25 percent of the runoff comes from the internal watersheds. The
long-term average (1937–2015) flows of Pakistan's western rivers are 170.4 BCM, of
which about 130 BCM are external flows. The average annual residual/flood flows in the
eastern rivers are about 3 BCM, a part of it generates in India, that is externally allocated,
while, a part of it is generated in Pakistan.

Historical seasonal flows of the western and eastern tributaries of the Indus River are
summarized in Table 1 as 10-year averages from 1960 to 2015. The seasonal river flows of
four western tributaries (Indus, Kabul, Jhelum, and Chenab) for about 80 years are given in
Figure 5 and two eastern rivers in Figure 6. The Western rivers' RIM stations show an
insignificant decrease in inflows during Kharif and largely stable behaviour during Rabi.
Uneven wet and dry cycle are characterized by the smaller dry and longer wet spans. The
average behaviour or trends over a short period of five to twenty years can be misleading,
representing a wet, dry or transitional phase.

Table 1: Western and eastern river inflows BCM

Western Rivers Eastern Rivers Total river
Period Kharif Rabi Annual Kharif Rabi Annual Kharif Rabi Annual
1961- 70 141.3 27.0 168.3 23.6 3.4 27 163.5 30.5 194
1971–80 135.5 27.1 162.7 16.8 2.4 19.2 152.3 29.5 181.8
1981–90 141.2 32.4 173 6.1 2.5 8.6 147.4 34.9 182.3

1991–00 149.9 32 182.0 8.3 1.9 20.2 158.2 33.9 192

2001–10 127.8 29.4 157.2 1.6 0.4 2.0 129.4 29.8 159.2
2011–18 130 29.6 159.3 4.6 1.4 6 .0 134.4 30.9 165.3

8
Secondary salinization refers to salt accumulation in soils as a consequence of direct human activities,
such as use of poor quality water for irrigation, water logging, and land development (Fitzpatrick et al.,
2000; Dehaan and Taylor, 2002).

12
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 5: Historical flow of three western rivers 1937 to 2018. Kabul river
flows included in indus flows at Kalabagh

Source: Indus River System Authority

Figure 6: Eastern rivers inflows from 1937 to 2018

Source: Indus River System Authority

Combined flows of three eastern rivers, Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas are shown in Figure-6 The
flows recede with time, the lower range drops from 25 BCM to less than 1 BCM and the
upper range (high rainfall years) from 35 to 5 BCM. The eastern rivers are allocated to India
in 1960, their water is converted by India through a series of reservoirs and canals.
Residual water which enters into Pakistan is generated during heavy rainfall runoff from
both sides of the border.

13
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

The projected changes in river inflows are influenced by precipitation projections, shifts in
the monsoon period, cloudiness, and projected glacier and snowmelt patterns. The
complex behaviour of river stream flows is simulated by various hydrological models. Some
studies (Immerzeel, 2009; Lutz et al., 2016) estimate an increase in rainfall by up to 50
percent to around 2 070 mm and a shift in the timing of river-runoff peak, which is
projected to anticipate by about one month, leading to almost overall stable flows until the
mid-century (near future) and eventual decrease afterwards. Projected changes in summer
monsoon by different General Circulation Models have high Spatio-temporal variation
across the basin and seasons. Winter simulations are more consistent, projecting an
increase over the upper Indus Basin and a decrease over the lower basin (Gebre and
Ludwig, 2014).

The stream flows in the near future (2021-2050) are expected to increase during autumn
and spring. Upstream sub-basins (Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok) are expected to have
increased water availability while lower altitude sub-basins show decreases annually,
particularly during June and July and also during spring (Ali et al., 2015; Lutz et al., 2016).
By the end of the century (2071-2100), the glacial extent is expected to decrease
significantly, reducing the contribution of glacial melt and the impact on the total water
availability across the whole Indus Basin. The timing of water availability depends on the
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario used, therefore, all adaptation
strategies need to consider this uncertainty.

Current river inflow-patterns represent the combined impacts of glacier/snowmelt,

precipitation, and upstream uses. These patterns (flow hydrograph) will continue until half
of the glacier reserve is depleted or precipitation has substantially increased or decreased.
The future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run,
mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. However, a few robust
changes are found. There will be the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from
summer peak flow towards the other seasons. There will also be an increase in intensity
and frequency of extreme discharges for most of the upper Indus basin (Lutz et al., 2016),
increasing flood risks.

A recent study by MWH and RTI (Yves et al., 2016) developed a series of projections for
temperature and precipitation and river flows based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Coupled Model
Inter-Comparison Project. The historical series of inflows are used to create a series of
inflows into the future to give a variable pattern to the series. These river flows were
forecasted from 2014 to 2060 because of having historical flows for 48 years, see Figure 7.
They selected 19 scenarios to forecast future time series of inflows to the Diamer Basha
Reservoir under Future Climate Scenarios. The figure shows fairly variable annual flows,
with the highest occurring in 2021 at nearly 165 MAF, which was followed in the next year
by the lowest flows in the sequence, at 94 MAF, more than a 75 percent decline. Later in
the series, in 2048 and 2049 a large drought is seen as well, where the flows are 99 MAF
and 97 MAF. After the drought period, there is a noticeable increase in water availability.
The projected flows stabilize around 2060, as a substantial part of Indus glaciers already
melt.

14
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 7: Historical flows projected into the future (MAF/yr)

Source: MWH and IFPRI (2016)

Climate change impacts on small stream flows (an example)

Shakil et al., 2015, carried out a comprehensive study of the cryosphere and discharge
changes in the Lidder River Basin, a key tributary of the Jhelum River. The study shows a
significant downward trend for the streamflow in the Lidder basin since the mid-1990s, as
a result of the substantial decrease in the overall glacial mass in the basin over the past five
to six decades due to climate change (Table 2 and Figure 8).

Table 2: Change in total glacier area of Lidder watershed and Kolahoi glacier
over time
Year Total glacier area (km 2) Kolahoi glacier area (km 2)
1962 46.098 13.67
1992 41.884 13.34
2000 37.824 12.17
2013 33.433 10.92
Source: Shakil et al., 2015
Sharif et al., 2013 have also found a similar downward trend in a runoff in the glaciated
Hunza catchment at Dainyore. However, they found a significant upward trend in the flow
regime in the Nival catchment. The Lidder study shows that a short high flow period was
already achieved and then a sharp decline in flows occurred despite melting.

The behaviour of these sub-catchments indicates two important factors, which could have
a substantial impact on the Indus river flows. First, the glacier mass balance in some sub-
catchments has already reached the level of a decrease in the overall runoff. Secondly,
increased runoff from some sub-catchments are compensating for the decreased flows of
some other catchments – both types of catchments have glacier and early snow melt.

15
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 8: Mean annual discharge at Aru hydrological station

Source: Shakil et al., 2015

Renewable water resources of Pakistan
Pakistan has a good network to monitor Indus Rivers at the RIM9 stations and below. A
long-term dataset of Indus rivers inflows is available from 1922 and 1937. While some new
structures and gauges have been added with time. During the eighties, a detailed
groundwater monitoring and mapping system was developed, and a sub-organization of
WAPDA (SMO) was assigned the responsibility to measure and report groundwater table
changes twice a year (before after monsoon rains) within the Indus Basin. The PMD and
other organizations have installed about 90 rain/weather gauge-stations across the
country. In recent years, multiple hydrological and glacier assessment studies have been
conducted in the Upper Indus Basin, and, across the HKH (Himalaya, Karakorum, and
Hindukush) ranges.

However, assessment of Pakistan water resources outside the Indus rivers regime and
below the RIM stations remains incomplete. The rain-runoff below the Rim-stations and
contribution of ungauged tributaries is normally not considered. The small western basins
of Baluchistan are also ignored from the National Water Accounts.

The gross contribution of rainfall also has limitations in estimations; below the RIM station,
rain contribution is mostly calculated by the water-balance studies as an effective water
component used by crops within the canal command areas. The assessment of annual
renewable groundwater aquifer also needs a proper assessment.
9
In the context of Indus Basin, a rim station is a control structure on the river to measure discharge when the river
enters into Pakistani territory or upstream of the canal-irrigated Indus Plains of Punjab and Sindh Provinces.

16
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Current water usage in agriculture and its requirement

The agriculture sector is the major water user consuming more than 85 percent of water,
far higher than the domestic (5 percent) and industrial sector (2 percent) (Figure 9). Of the
total cropped area of 23.4 million hectares (Mha), 18.63 Mha is irrigated, 77 percent of
which is located in Punjab, 14 percent in Sindh, 5 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK),
and 4 percent in Baluchistan10. 3.8 Mha is under a spate irrigation farming system (includes
Sailaba/Rod Kohi, riverine and Barani)11. The potential area under spate irrigation is
estimated to be around 6.94 Mha (not included in the reported area of 18.63 Mha).
Evidence also suggests that crops grown12 in irrigated as well as spate farming areas are
sensitive to water availability, annual rainfall, and temperature variability.

Figure 9: Sectoral water withdrawal from AQUASTAT main database

Source: FAO (2017)

Crop water requirements

Estimated crop water requirements (CWR) and uses of the agriculture sector are provided in Table 3. Crop
water demand increased by about 20 percent over the course of 24 years; canal diversions remain stagnant,
while the contribution of groundwater and rainfall increased by about 25 percent. These estimates are used
as the baseline for climate change scenario projections (Amir and Habib, 2015).

10
Government of Pakistan, Bureau of Statistics. 2011. Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan:2010–2011.
Islamabad.
11
The spate irrigation farming system refers to a type of water management unique to semiarid
environments. Floodwater from mountain catchments is diverted from river beds and spread over large
(Ageta & and Kadota, 1992) (Akram, 2016) (Bocchiola, 2015) areas.
12
The major patterns of crops in Pakistan include: (i) rice–wheat, (ii) maize–wheat, (iii) cotton–wheat, (iv)
sugarcane–wheat, and (v) coarse grain-wheat, and some other minor crops patterns, such as pulses,
vegetables, etc.

17
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Table 3: Baseline agriculture water requirements (billion cubic meters –BCM)

1990 2000 2014
Cropped Area (official)– Million hectare 20.10 21.02 23.20
CWR Root Zone 113.81 121.79 136.79
CWR Field (75% efficiency) 158.06 166.84 182.39
Rain Contribu on Field 28.45 30.03 36.48
CWR Field level (CWR Field minus Rain Contribu on Field) 129.61 136.80 145.91
Gross Water Requirements Farm (CWR Field level plus Livestock Requirements) 130.71 138.25 147.65
Total surface diversions (Canal diversions plus other diversions) 127.92 124.85 132.23
Canal diversions 125.46 121.77 127.92
Other diversions 2.46 3.08 4.31
Available Farm (64% conveyance efficiency ; 48% overall efficiency) 81.87 79.90 84.62
Groundwater Contribu on Farm* 48.84 58.35 63.05
Source: Amir and Habib, 2015
Note: *Gross Water Requirements Farm minus Available Farm

Estimation of water requirements at the farm level depends upon the water balance
(average rainfall or irrigation minus evaporation and crop transpiration), the type of crops
grown throughout the year, water application techniques and soil moisture conditions.
Groundwater aquifer levels and quality contribute to the soil condition and net root-zone
water requirements. The quantity and timing of rainfall determine its effectiveness and
contribution in meeting crop requirements. Pakistan has good empirical knowledge of
water applied and used by crops in different agro-ecological zones.

Diverted/recommended quantities could be higher than actual water requirements due to

the weekly schedule of canal supplies, flood irrigation, and low conveyance efficiencies.
Table 4, shows the estimated CWR for the major crop. The CROPWAT model was used to
estimate the CWR for ten main crops across the full temperature range. These values are
used to estimate agricultural water uses from 1990 to 2014 in the Indus Basin. CWR
increased at a rate of one percent per year (average agriculture growth was three percent)
and water uses increased at almost the same rate, with partial contributions from
groundwater and direct rainfall.

Table 4: Potential water requirements of major crops estimated using

CROPWAT
Crop water requirements (mm) Average
Crop
North (temperate) – South (arid) CWR (mm)
1 Wheat 290 - 520 402
2 Co on 587 - 1000 714
3 Sugarcane 1 000 - 1 900 1 512
4 Rice 540 - 1156 931
5 Maize 244 - 450 435
8 Fruit 900 - 2 200 1 120
7 Sorghum 370 - 530 332
8 Fruit 700 - 2 200 1 120
9 Pulses/oil seed 300 - 500 332
10 Vegetable/fodder 450 - 650 530
Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

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 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

The reported net sown area of Pakistan has become almost stagnant at around 16 million
hectares, while the cropped area has shown a small annual increase (Figure 10). Net sown
area refers to actually cultivated land. Whereas cropped area is referred to as the total area
under different crops in a year; hence also includes double cropping. Pakistan is obligated
to produce grains and edible crops at a level higher than the population increase due to its
food security requirements.

Figure 10: Total cropped areas and net sown area in Pakistan over time

Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

Although the agriculture system has physical potential in terms of agricultural land, the
availability of water is a key constraint for the expansion of the sector. Existing divertible
river flows are fully allocated among the provinces of Pakistan. All surface water diversions
take place through irrigation canals, with the agriculture sector being the predominant
stakeholder and user of river flows. At the planning and management level, the agriculture
sector is unable to escape this inert state.

Livestock sector water requirements

The livestock sector of Pakistan has shown a consistent growth rate of about three
percent over the last two decades. Compared to the major crops, the annual growth of
livestock has been more reliable with no noticeable influence from floods and other
extreme events. The livelihood support role of the sector for small farmers and a lower risk
factor against extreme events gives it a resilient character. The livestock sector's water
intake is estimated by using animal estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics
(Finance, Pakistan Economic Survey, 2014-15) and dairy guides. Within the projected

19
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

temperature variation range for Pakistan, a two-degree increase will augment the water
intake of a large animal by about 5 percent, and a four-degree increase will do so by about
12 percent.

By maintaining the existing growth rate, the water needs of the livestock sector are
computed for the years 2015, 2025 and 2050 (Table 5). No change in water use patterns
are considered in these calculations; hence, the estimates are on the conservative side.
The current estimated direct water use of livestock is 1.7 BCM, which will increase to 2.35
BCM by 2025 and 4.9 BCM by 2050.

Table 5: Projected water requirements livestock and poultry

2006 2013 2015 2025 2050
Annual gross livestock water requirements (BCM) 1.26 1.65 1.75 2.348 4.916
Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

Water used by forest, range land and ecological demands

Forest water use is dependent on the local climate, soil conditions and forest type. In dry
regions, ecosystem water use (tree transpiration + interception + soil evaporation) is
generally limited by water availability, provided by the precipitation and aquifer.

While analysing temperate grassland and forest sites, Sun et al., (2011) found that forests
in the warm-temperate zone require at least 400 mm of precipitation in the growing season
to sustain their desired functions. Grassland and scrubland are found at sites where
growing season precipitation is below 400 mm –they survive on lower evapotranspiration
(UK Forestry Commission, 2010; Sheikh Saeed Ahmad, et al., 2010). Forest and rangeland
water requirements are estimated using conservative coefficients. Water use for 4.2 million
hectares of forest and rangeland was estimated to be about 6.2 BCM for an average 150
mm evapotranspiration.

Municipal water requirements

Urban and industrial water requirements are rarely computed based on actual water use
data in Pakistan. A percentage value from 2 percent to 3 percent is used (to show some
numbers); available references for these values are the National Water Strategy document
prepared in the nineties and two earlier studies by WAPDA from 1976 and 1989.

The National Drinking Water Policy of Pakistan promised safe drinking water access to the
entire population (Government of Pakistan, 2009). The minimum supply for drinking and
domestic use is set at 45 liters per capita per day (l/c/d) for rural areas and 120 l/c/d (120
liters =32 gallons) for the urban areas. Based on this promise, Figure 11 illustrates rural and
urban household supply projections (Amir and Habib, 2015).

20
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 11: Rural and urban household water supply projections

Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

Amir and Habib (2015) estimated quite high values for future municipal water demands,
based on the current urban water supply patterns of the municipalities (Figure 12).
According to their report, urban development authorities from large and major cities plan
for a supply of more than 65 gallons (300 liters) per capita per day, which in some cases
goes up to 80 gallons.

Figure 12: Estimated municipal water requirements

Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

21
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Water loss and productivity

Water loss in agriculture
Water losses in agriculture are considered extremely high because of the high evaporation
rate, seepage from a long water conveyance and distribution network and widely spread
agriculture land, which aggravates the water scarcity further. The evaporation losses are
not only hard to account for, but also difficult to control.

Two recent estimates of rivers and irrigation losses tell a complicated story. An Indus Basin
study estimates losses due to seepage are as high as 60 percent (Yu, et al., 2013).
According to this study, around 25-30 percent of available water is lost in canals and
watercourses, and another 25-40 percent in the water application. Although this seepage
recharges the underground aquifer (and is recoverable), a significant supply is lost to saline
aquifers (Briscoe and Qamar 2005).

Young et al., (2019) computes the national level water losses in two categories, induced
losses, and the natural losses respectively in the range of 18 percent and 31 percent .
Natural losses include evaporation and plant transpiration from the forest and rangeland
including mangroves. The report argues (Young 2019) that a part of evapotranspiration
occurring from the ecosystem and forest (31 percent ) is strongly temperature driven and
could not be managed. Other referred losses are 39 percent from the crop
evapotranspiration and more than 10 percent are directly from the rivers. Hence, only a
part of the evaporation losses can be managed.

According to Yu 2013, out of 130.4 BCM of irrigation water that goes into the system, only
50.4 BCM reaches crops, a loss of about 61 percent of the water delivered at the canal
heads (Table 6) (Yu, et al., 2013). About 30.8 BCM is lost in watercourses and 20.9 BCM in
fields, most vulnerable components of the irrigation system (Yu, et al., 2013) simulated
various climate changes scenarios for 2020-80 and found that improving the canal
efficiency system can save an additional 14.8 BCM. A relatively minor increase in
infrastructure can lead to a significant increase in water use efficiency (Parry, Osman,
Terton, Asad, & Ahmed, 2017).

As far as discharge into the sea is concerned, this is a function of the seasonal mismatch
in water inflow and its usage; available storage; and the need to maintain a balance
between sea-water and freshwater in the coastal areas. According to estimates, more than
two-thirds of the annual flow of the western rivers transpires during June-August, whereas
water needs remain high year-round.

However, seepage losses are highly variable, they are often directly linked to canal
maintenance as shown in a study by (Wahaj, 2001) that estimated watercourse losses vary
from 9 percent to 39 percent in 1000 meters length depending on the level of
maintenance. (Habib, 2004) compared water losses assessed as part of different studies
and programme between 1965 and 1999. The comparison shows high variability in water
loss values at watercourse level ranging from 15 percent - as part of the study carried out
by Punjab Irrigation

22
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Research Institute in 1971 - to 35 percent - study by IWASRI in 1997. This makes it a

more than 100 percent increase in seepage losses at the watercourse level over 26 years.
Many of the studies carried out after 1972, showing higher water losses in the canals, were
carried out as part of the preparation for the watercourse lining programme. Thus, the
watercourses selected for measurement of seepage losses were in bad physical condition
with dilapidated infrastructure, which makes these high estimates biased and non-
representative of the entire basin (Habib, 2004).

Low water productivity

Water withdrawals globally have increased as a result of rising population and economic
growth. It has risen by a factor of 40, from 100 BCM in the year 1700 to 4 104 BCM in
2010, exceeding the 11-fold increase in population over the same period and far less than
144-fold increase in global GDP, surging from USD 371 billion in 1700 to USD 53 394
billion (IMF, 2015). Table 6 includes 10 countries withdrawing the most water, seven
populous countries in the world, six largest economies and five countries with the most
land cultivated for agriculture. In addition to irrigation practices, high water withdrawals per
unit of land are influenced by the percent of irrigated areas and cropping patterns.

Table 6: Top 10 countries' water withdrawals in 2010

PPP Agricultural Withdrawals
Withdrawals Withdrawals
Freshwater GDP Land Area (Cubic
Popula on (cubic (Cubic
Country Withdrawal billions thousands of meters per
(In Million) meters per meters per
(BCM) of square square
capita) unit of GDP
USD) kilometer) kilometer)
India 760 1 206 4 130 3 287 631 18 231
China 627 1 360 10 040 9 597 461 6 65
USA 441 312 14 958 9 629 1 413 3 46
Pakistan 183 179 487 796 1 022 38 230
Indonesia 166 241 1 026 1 905 691 16 87
Iran 89 74 942 1 648 1 202 9 54
Russia 80 144 2 222 17 075 558 4 5
Mexico 80 118 1 603 1 958 676 5 41
Philippines 79 93 365 300 848 22 264
Japan 76 127 4 351 378 596 2 201
World 4 104 6 837 73 658 131 077 600 6 31
Source: World Bank Indicators Database 2015
Note: 2010 was heavy flood year in Pakistan.

Average water productivity (Table 7), calculated as a total constant 2010 USD GDP per
cubic meter of annual freshwater withdrawal in Pakistan is considerably low compared to
other countries (World Bank, 2018). Low crop yields, both per hectare and per cubic meter
of water are attributed to excessive reliance on traditional irrigation methods like flood
irrigation, leading to large water losses from excessive run-off, deep percolation, and
evaporation. Flood irrigation can damage land quality (waterlogging) and reduce crop
yields, as excessive water leaches nutrients out of the root zone.

23
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

At the user's level, Warabandi13 and the manipulations of the water allocation system have
taken place and they have persisted over time. Alterations of canal outlet sizes and
timings of delivery have created inequalities, leaving some farmers – particularly poor
farmers at the tail end of a canal or watercourse – with fewer allocations and less access
to water. As a result, access to canal water at the farm level depends on access to land
and the location of that land along the canal (Yu, et al., 2013).

Another issue related to low water productivity is Ineffective interventions. For example, rice
and sugarcane improvement programmes failed to consider issues of water shortages,
heat or salt tolerance, focusing primarily on developing high yield and disease-resistant
varieties.
Average farmers are unable to access laser levelling equipment easily, which is a popular
and effective method of increasing water productivity, and the private sector is not actively
engaged in providing these services.

Lastly, Warabandi and the manipulations of the water allocation system have taken place,
and they have persisted over time. Alterations of canal outlet sizes and timings of delivery
have created inequalities, leaving some farmers – particularly poor farmers at the tail end of
a canal or watercourse – with fewer allocations and less access to water. As a result,
access to canal water at the farm level depends on access to land and the location of that
land along the canal (Yu, et al., 2013). Table 7 Comparison of Water Productivity in
Agriculture.

Table 7: Comparison of water productivity in agriculture

Country Tons/Hectare Constant 2005 Kg/m3
USD/m3
USA 7.34 30.20 1.56
Germany 7.32 98.33
Egypt 7.25 1.88
France 7.10 74.54
Japan 6.10 53.13
China 5.89 8.86 0.80
Vietnam 5.42 1.12
Indonesia 5.15 3.96
Brazil 4.83 16.09
Bangladesh 4.36 3.12
India 2.96 1.96 0.39
Kyrgyz 2.90 0.44
Pakistan 2.72 0.78 0.13
Source. World Bank Indicators Database 2015.
13
Warabandi system or water timeshare system was introduced by the British administration to ensure equitable
provision of water to cropped lands. As the demand for irrigation water was rather minimal due to low cropping
intensity and production of primarily of low-water requirement crops like food grain (wheat, maize, sorghum,
and millets), pulses, oilseeds, etc. During the last decade, however, the pressure on water has drastically
increased, with more competition for quantity and quality of irrigation water within the irrigation sector, but also
from other sectors of the economy.

24
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

A different set of arguments is provided by Young (2019). The economic return from
irrigation water has doubled over the last three decades from around 0.03 USD/m3 to 0.06
USD/m3 in Sindh and from around 0.04 USD/m3 to 0.08 USD/m3 in Punjab. This has
been achieved through expansion of the irrigated area, increased groundwater use,
increased use of fertilizers, mechanization, and improvements in water management-Water
productivity needs to improve markedly if Pakistan is to revitalize economic growth, and
should come from better water delivery control, better on-farm management, higher input
quality, and better pest control.”

Large variations in estimates and decades-old data used in some cases by the global
databases suggest the need to rectify the data and methodology to estimate some key
indices like water use efficiency, crop productivity and the value of water.

Financial sustainability of the water sector

Gross revenue generated from agriculture and other water use sectors is extremely low
and has a decline in its real value over time. Water rates for agriculture uses are historically
linked with the irrigated land and have been considered low. A major target of Irrigation
management transfer reforms was to improve the water rates and the actual revenue
collection. However, total revenue from the sector decreases, as, Punjab shifted from the
crop-based irrigated land revenue to the flat-rate revenue on the landholding. Sindh and
other provinces could not enhance the assessment and collection procedures.

Most of the industrial water used from the surface resources are not accounted for. While
under-reported allocations are nominally charged. Similarly, water rates are very low in the
commercial and domestic sectors. Because of the low-income water sector depends
upon national exchequer for its daily operations and maintenance of the system. water
resources development and asset management fully rely on foreign funded projects. Tariffs
and subsidies also benefit big producers, eventually supporting a small group of
“progressive farmers”, having higher productivity of land and water but a small overall
contribution.

Future projection of water requirements

Climate change impacts on sectoral water demands estimate water requirements of
agriculture and other sectors without specific interventions (Amir and Habib, 2015). The
baseline scenario (no climate change) was developed based on:

(i) a modest population growth rate (1.67 percent increase in 2015 and only 0.61
percent in 2050);
(ii) higher conveyance efficiency of the irrigation network (64 percent );
(iii) urban/domestic water requirements based on official targets for the safe domestic
water supply and the current actual supply pattern of large and medium cities;
(iv) expected infrastructure, industrial and social sectors' requirements; and
(v) promised environmental flows.

25
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

The report estimates CWR for 1oC and 3oC increase in temperature in 2020 and 2050
using the CROPWAT model for the major crops and evapotranspiration projections by
PMD. It estimated that a +3°C increase in temperature by 2050 would result in agricultural
water requirements increasing by 6 percent by 2025 and 12-15 percent by 2050. The
study presents high water competition among various water use sectors and increased
stress on the agriculture sector. For the baseline estimates, non-agriculture water demand
will be around 17 percent in 2025 and 24 percent in 2050. Climate-induced warming will
increase water requirements by 5 BCM in 2025 and 10 BCM in 2050. The forecast for the
municipal water demand is higher compared to all other estimates, which is justified by the
authors based on existing urban water supply patterns and public commitment to provide
safe drinking water and sanitation access (Amir and Habib, 2015). The demand estimates
by the study are provided in Table 8 and Figure 13.

Table 8: Controlled population (1.7 percent to 0.5 percent in 2050) and

reasonable economic growth – water requirements at the water use level
(farm in case of agriculture)
Year Urban/Com Industrial/ Agricul Ecology/ ENV Total water demand Agri.
mercial Social ture Forest Flows Share
Billion Cubic Meters ------------- BCM ------------------- BCM MAF %
Base Scenario – No systema c change in temperature and precipita on
2015 9.3 3.3 138.5 6.3 5 162.4 132.0 85
2025 12.7 5.5 149.8 7.0 5 180.0 146.3 83
2050 30.5 10.2 171.9 8.9 5 226.6 184.2 76
Temperature Increase 1C ll mid -century
2025 12.8 5.7 154.3 7.2 5 184.9 150.4 0.83
2050 31.0 11.7 182.4 9.5 5 239.5 194.8 0.76
Temperatur e Increase 3C ll mid-century
2025 13.3 5.9 158.8 7.5 5 190.6 155.0 0.83
2050 32.9 15.1 196.5 10.0 5 259.6 211.0 0.76
Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

26
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Figure 13: Climate change impacts on water demand by 1C and 3 C increase

in temperature

Source: Amir and Habib (2015)

Infrastructure development, thermal and coal power plants, the sugar-industry, cement
plants and cottage industry all require water at a faster pace than the agriculture sector.
The allocation of surface water (from rivers and canals) for non-agriculture use is not fully
accounted for at the basin level. However, local accounts of these competitors are
emerging (Amir and Habib, 2015). The study estimates that non-agriculture demand in
2050 will be about 25 percent of the total demands. Total demand estimates are about
227 BCM in 2050 – in the case of no climate change, and about 260 BCM (211 MAF) with
3 oC rise in temperature. These demands (2050) are in the range of Pakistan's total
renewable water resources.

Figure 14: Comparison of five water demand scenarios against baseline

period of 2015

Source: UNDP, 2017

27
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Another review study was recently carried out by UNDP and COMSAT, 'The Vulnerability of
Pakistan's Water Sector to the Impacts of Climate Change: Identification of gaps and
recommendations for action' (2017, see Figure 14). The study used the same data as Amir
and Habib (2015) for projections on the population, temperature, rainfall and agriculture
areas. However, both studies have different estimates of the current water demands (Table
8 and Figures 13 and 14). The baseline agriculture demand by UNDP is estimated as 173
bcm (same as total withdrawals from all sources in 2015). All UNDP scenarios consider a
small change in industrial demand, from 2.3 bcm in 2015 to 2.73 bcm in 2050, much less
than the estimation of Table 8 (3.3 bcm to 10 bcm). In addition to the climate change
scenario, two demand management scenarios were adopted by the UNDP study
substantially reducing agricultural demands from 2015 to 2030 and maintaining the current
level in 2050. The business as usual scenario shows 15 bcm increase in total water
demand in 2050 and the climate change scenario an increase of 39 bcm.

Information and data gaps

Table 9 summarises the range of values of water variables used by various water balances
and assessment studies. The rivers inflows at the RIM-stations and the surface diversions
through canals are the two variables, having the same values and data sources in all
studies. All other quantities are computed differently by different studies, influenced by
various factors like methodology, the scale of analysis, objectives of a particular study and
assumed boundary conditions. The remarks column briefly comments on each water
component. Some of these limitations are also mentioned in the text of this paper.

The provincial level assessment of water and land resources and applications of remote
sensing techniques are the emerging trends in Pakistan. The new water management
scenario will need a more serious and systematic approach to present a correct profile of
the water resources at various levels.

The factors behind and sometimes justification for a range of water numbers given in
Table-9 can be summarized as:

I. Currently, no public sector organization is responsible for the compilation of water data
other than the main rivers flows and canal diversion. The responsibilities of WAPDA
(particularly related to monitoring and reporting) are not taken by any other agencies, as
WAPDA slowly exited.

ii. Almost all water balance studies by donors (WB, ADB) and a big project are focussed on
the Indus Basin and IBMR model or its new versions (used by WB studies of 2013 and
2019). The model further focusses on the irrigated agriculture inside the canal command
areas. Hence, the water used outside the model setting is either not considered or taken
from the available references.

iii. Most of the analysis are carried out in the supply-based setting and traditional concepts
about the irrigation canals prevail. That seriously influences estimations of water

28
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

demands and the actual uses, which are mostly calculated through the supply-side
efficiency factors.

iv. The emerging water use sectors do not report the actual uses and the sources of water,
hence, assessments for urban, commercial and industrial remain low and erratic.
Sometimes 30 years old data is still used.

v. Some of the basin water definitions are not properly applied, like “the renewable water
resources” and the “internal water resources”.

vi. The remote sensing applications especially need ground-truthing and calibrations, in
addition to the scale and resolution issues.

Table 9 : Gaps in the estimation of the gross water resources, water

availability and water uses
Water Component Value Source Remarks

Indus River and tributaries 170 bcm PIDs, IRSA, WAPDA Historical River flows data is
Inflows: Indus, Jhelum, available
Chenab, Kabul, Ravi, Sutlej

Ungauged Tributaries 6.4 bcm Not in the public Not updated, considered a part of
below RIM sta ons domain, available on River gains and Losses
request

Kharan and Makran Basins 9.8 (6.2+3.5) WAPDA 1991, Young Not updated
of Balochistan bcm 2019

Runoff from Watersheds Pakistan Upstream of RIM Sta ons

Kabul River runoff 10.5 to 15 bcm Arfan, M.; Lund, J Nine rivers shared by Pakistan and
generated inside Pakistan (2019). R. Ullah 2017, Afghanistan with an annual flow of
boundary Khan, F. and Pilz, J. around 22.5 BCM, Kabul River alone
(2018). accounts for 21.5 bcm (Mustafa,
2011).

Upper Indus Basin (UIB) about 15 bcm Kashif Jamal (2018) Climate change and runoff
flows generated in Pakistan yield between contribu on by hydrological zones of
controlled Area Chalas and cryosphere catchment of Indus
Alam bridge River, Pakistan

Small Dams storages and About 70 Provincial Small Dams Accumulated data of actual storage
uses small dams Orgs. and uses not available

Surface water uses 4 – 6 bcm Alloca on of civil Three big canals of SWAT & Kabul
upstream RIM sta ons canals of KP by WAA rivers and many civil canals are
1991. Bhasha study formal systems monitored by the
2011 Prov. Irriga on Dept. However, most
of the databases ignore them.

29
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Rainfall Contribu on

Surface Runoff & Recharge In the range of WAPDA 1991 Young No na onal-level es mate available
within Indus Plains below 28 - 48 bcm 2019, Amir & Habib
RIM sta ons.

Rain direct uses by crops in 12 bcm to 36 WAPDA 1991, Ijaz et Water Accoun ng study 2019 FAO
the Indus Basin bcm al., (2010) Habib 2004
,
Amir & Habib 2015

Rainfall uses in Baranni In the range of Es mated in 1979 and Not Updated.
areas outside Canal 9 bcm 1991 by WB and
Commands WAPDA
Groundwater es mates based on Water Balances

Groundwater Aquifer: 60 bcm to 72 WB 2019, FAO & many balances mostly confined to the
Annual withdrawal bcm others Indus Basin

Aquifer total Replenishing 66 to 75 bcm Es mates based on water balances

Poten al and irriga on conveyance
efficiencies

Es ma ons of water requirements, supply and uses in various sectors at the Na onal, Provincial and Basins
levels.

Agriculture Water 80 bcm to 136 WAPDA 1974, WAPDA Basic limita on of the given
Demands and Uses bcm 91, Habib 2004, WB es mates:
Urban, domes c, civil & 5 bcm to 9.6 2005, Ijaz 2010, Yu I, values computed for water balance
commercial water uses bcm et al., 2013, Amir & models of the Indus basin CCAs
Industrial water uses 1.8 bcm to 3.6 Habib 2015, UNDP Ii, water uses calculated by applying
bcm 2017, Young et.al., 2018 conveyance efficiency factors
FAO AQUASTAT Iii, non-agricultural uses randomly
assumed
Water used by Forest, About 4 bcm WAPDA 1991 Not updated
rangeland, and ecosystems

Internally Generated Water 55 bcm Aquastat, WB Under-es mated only considering

Resources databases rainfall contribu on within CCAs &
for the aquifer recharge

30
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Conclusion & recommendations

Pakistan faces daunting water resources challenges as the need for water supply from
different sectors intensifies due to population growth, economic development, and impacts
from climate change. The country withdraws more than 70 percent of its renewable water
resources, most of which are used in agriculture. Annual river flow data over a 35-year
period indicates a quantifiable decline in the annual volumes of river flows. Exacerbating
the challenge is a growing demand for water, mainly stemming from rising population,
rapid urbanization, the adverse impact of climate change, and the continuing degradation
of water quality. Further, water demand from new emerging sectors that include
environmental flows, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) related development,
afforestation needs, and social developments have neither been foreseen nor factored in
future planning.

Climate change is making matters worse with erratic rainfall, temperature rise and
increased variability in water availability patterns. The impact of climate change on water
availability is projected to be severe with intense events of floods and droughts. While,
water supply is already affected by changing climates; water demand is also projected to
increase, not only in agriculture, but also in urban areas as well as in the industry.

A proper and standardized system of water accounting is not followed both at Federal or
at Provincial levels. Water balances carried out by different organizations and institutions
using different methodologies and data sources are providing different results for the same
physical boundaries. Also, the Remote sensing and GIS based water accounting carried
out in the country often lacks proper (re)calibration of the model(s) used. Part of the reason
for this is the limitations of available data and information, which sometimes is incomplete,
especially seasonal cropping patterns and crop yields.

Groundwater has a critical role in managing the demand-supply gap at the user level in all
sectors of the national economy. Across the freshwater zone active recharge and
abstraction of groundwater provide a unique recycling opportunity to the rain and irrigation
runoff. However, consistent aquifer mining is causing secondary salinization and depletion
of a critical resource in high water stress areas. In the saline aquifer zone, about 30 percent
of the Indus plains, excessive effluent, and insufficient drainage result in waterlogging,
salinity and pollution of fresh surface water bodies. The groundwater monitoring
mechanism developed in the eighties has faded with time. New provincial initiatives have
limited spatio-temporal coverage and still not able to generate annual groundwater profiles.
Deterioration of groundwater quality is directly linked with the marginalization of drinking
water quality and health issues.

To check the emerging unaccounted water uses, there is a need to strictly follow and
extend surface water allocation procedures to all water use sectors. Pakistan needs to
improve its water and land data reporting systems at the national and global levels. There
is a severe lack of understanding of some new terms and variables, like the renewable and
internal water resources, productivity of water, and, local and global water use efficiencies.

31
Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

Recommendations
In light of the review and analysis of the water situation in the country, some key
recommendations have been proposed as follows, which can be applied to overcome the
problems faced by Pakistan's water sector and its impact on agriculture due to climate
change.

1. Institutional coordination between federal and provincial levels as well as across the
sectors is a key challenge, which should be addressed through permanent institutional
mechanisms. Instead of launching new institutes, Pakistan needs to revisit existing
institutional responsibilities, overlaps and gaps.

2. Pakistan must maintain and extend surface water allocation procedures to all water use
sectors in addition to the irrigation sector. The surface water resources, which are
increasingly used for the municipal and industrial supplies should have a clear allocation to
these sectors.

3. A paradigm shift from irrigation to water management is key in meeting water

challenges, especially in changing climate and addressing the increasing needs of a
growing population and other sectors including industries and municipalities. Although by
2050 agriculture will account for the highest increase, water demand for domestic uses
(urban and rural) will rise sharply with the highest rate.

4. Strategic long-term water management necessitates employing a standardized water

accounting system that can provide comprehensive information on water use and
availability and is especially resourceful for resolving tensions and gaps between water
supply and demand. Water accounting provides critical information about the hydrological
cycle, assesses spatial and seasonal rainfall variations with water extremities – information
that can inform water infrastructural investments such as pumping, storage, and planning
for climate change.

5. Remote-sensing and GIS technology, in a combination of ground data, can be used to

measure and monitor the evapotranspiration from basin, sub-basin, administrative units
and agro-climatic zones) in the agriculture sector to determine actual crop water
consumption and water productivity (production and income per unit of water consumed).

6. Demand management needs to be at the center of current and future water policies and
strategies in order to sustainably manage water resources. As the gap between water
supply and demand increases managing demand in agriculture and other sectors become
more important. Strategies need to focus on improvements in water productivity, reduction
in non-beneficial evapotranspiration, and reduction in source and non-source water
contaminating practices. The safe use of non-conventional water resources in agriculture
and non-agriculture sectors needs to be encouraged.

7. Sustainable management of groundwater aquifers must be considered in order to

32
 Water availability, use and challenges in Pakistan

Water Availability, Use and Challenges in Pakistan

optimize the development of water resources, management, and conservation within a

basin. Recharge in the areas with sweet groundwater zones should be encouraged,
whereas, reduction in seepage in the areas with marginal groundwater quality (and with
saline groundwater zones) should be reduced. Artificial recharge of aquifers is certainly one
of the tools that can help in the sustainable use of groundwater resources, especially in
areas with good quality groundwater.

8. Irrigation system modernization; rehabilitation and maintenance of irrigation systems.

Irrigation Systems in the Provinces requires not only proper maintenance but also modern
techniques and technologies for improved management and water delivery services. This
will allow farmers to make timely on-farm decisions resulting in higher productivities and
incomes. High-efficiency water application techniques such as trickle/drip sprinkle, bubbler
irrigation, furrow bed irrigation need to be introduced and upscaled for improved water
use, the ratio between beneficial and non-beneficial evapotranspiration, and water
productivity.

9. Climate-smart agriculture and on-farm water management. The provincial extension

services need to provide information and reorient farmers to planting resilient crop varieties,
changing planting dates, and adapting farming practices to a shorter growing season.
Drought-tolerant varieties of wheat and cotton, and heat-tolerant varieties for cotton, which
are being practiced in some parts of Pakistan, need to be upscaled. Additionally, practices
such as laser and gradient land-leveling need to be promoted to prevent water losses due
to poor field design and surface unevenness causing water accumulation or leave dry
pockets. Resultantly, germination is often inconsistent and uneven growth of crops. The
use of a laser beam allows farmers to achieve uniformity in field preparation for uniform
water and moisture distribution. Zero-tillage (rice-wheat crops) can help with seed
germination, minimizing the soil disturbance and maximizing carbon storage. Soil ripping
can help conserve water. The government in collaboration with the private sector can help
to facilitate climate-resilient agricultural systems by establishing demonstration plants and
moving towards high-value agriculture. Additionally, the extension staff in coordination with
the irrigation department may train the farmers in soil and water conservation techniques,
such as dry seeding or rice, furrow irrigation, and drip irrigation, which can boost land
productivity and conserve scarce water resources.

10. Water tariff and subsidies. Water subsidies generally benefit upper-income groups in
developing economies, as the poor often have limited or no water access. Current water
tariffs in Pakistan and agricultural input and crop subsidies (fertilizer, pests, sugarcane)
promote water-intensive cropping (sugarcane and rice). Similarly, subsidized electric supply
for tube-wells encourages the over-abstraction of groundwater and poor irrigation
practices. The federal and provincial governments may have a deeper look at the current
subsidies regime and water pricing to align with the challenges caused by climate change.
It requires gradual phasing out of current subsidies and diverts a part of these subsidies to
promote climate-smart agriculture and water management. Water tariffs must be set to
recover the full cost of maintenance of the irrigation system and groundwater needs to be
licensed and priced.

33
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37
38
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experts from the Food and Agricultural
Organization of the United Nations.
FAO-Pakistan would like to share the
knowledge and its scientific findings
with the researchers, and the scientific
community at large and would like the
research work gathered from these
papers are referenced and cited.

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