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02.24 Presentation To Farmu VF

The February 2024 Market Update presentation to Farmu outlines key themes affecting the macro environment, including uneven global growth, declining inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions. It highlights the significant contribution of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to S&P 500 returns in 2023 and notes a steady recovery in equity capital market activity. Additionally, it discusses the widening valuation gap between US and LatAm tech companies, emphasizing the importance of size and profitability in the latter region.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
116 views33 pages

02.24 Presentation To Farmu VF

The February 2024 Market Update presentation to Farmu outlines key themes affecting the macro environment, including uneven global growth, declining inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions. It highlights the significant contribution of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to S&P 500 returns in 2023 and notes a steady recovery in equity capital market activity. Additionally, it discusses the widening valuation gap between US and LatAm tech companies, emphasizing the importance of size and profitability in the latter region.

Uploaded by

garytrabajo33
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Presentation to Farmu

Market Update

February 2024
Market Update
Presentation to Farmu

Table of Contents 1. Capital Market Update 1


2. e-Commerce Update 10
3. Food Delivery Update 19
1 Capital Market Update
Key Themes Shaping the Macro Environment

Expect Reopening of Capital


Uneven Global Growth, with
Markets and Accelerated
Potential Soft Landing in US
M&A

Inflation Declining, but Central Banks Pivoting to


When Will it Hit 2% Target? Rate Cuts

Climate Transition is a Must,


Rising Geopolitical Tensions but Economics and
Regulations are Challenging

Nearshoring and China+1(1)


Radically Reshaping Trade US Politics Worth Watching
Flows
____________________
1 Source: BofA Global Research Macro Market Update as of December 1st, 2023.
(1) China Plus One, also known simply as Plus One or C+1, is the business strategy to avoid investing only in China and diversify business into other countries, or to channel investments into manufacturing in other promising developing economies.
Magnificent Seven Carried the Market in 2023
The Magnificent Seven Accounted for Majority Of S&P 500 Returns in 2023
Index Returns Weight of Index
Contribution of Magnificent 7 (LHS) SPX Return (LHS)
The Bifurcation of 30% Magnificent 7 SPX Weight (RHS) 30%
Magnificent 7 vs S&P 493 28.0%

25% 24.2%

Magnificent 7 dominance fueled by AI led


the S&P and Nasdaq to returns of 24.2% 20% 20%
and 43.4% respectively
15% 15.0%

10% 10%

If all Mag 7 stocks were flat in


Of the Mag 7 stocks, MSFT, NVDA and 5% 2023 the S&P would be trading
AAPL accounted for the largest total at ~4,186 vs. the year end level
returns of the S&P 500, contributing of ~4,770
~8.6% of the 15.0% from the Mag 7 0% 0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
The Market Caps of the Magnificent Seven are Surpassing Several Stock Exchanges (1)
Market Cap ($bn)
$3,500
The spread between the S&P and Russell
2000 returns peaked in November at $3,000
18.1% but decreased to 8.9% by year end
$2,500

$2,000

$3,274
$1,500 $2,994 $2,905
$2,795
The Russell 2000 posted a 22.0% gain
$1,000 $2,091
following October vs. the S&P’s 12.6%, $1,756 $1,671
highlighting the improved breadth of the $1,570
$1,223
year end rally $500 $912 $910 $790

$0

____________________
2 Source: Bloomberg as of December 29th, 2023.
(1) Reflects Bloomberg Respective Country Exchange Market Cap
2023 ECM Activity: Recovery Has Been Steady…
ECM Issuance Climbed Back to Near Normalized Average Tech IPO Issuance Up Y/Y Though Trailed The Normalized Average
Issuance ($bn) Issuance ($bn)
$500 IPO 2022 to 2023: $467bn
+66% in issuance volume $160
$450 Follow-On $152bn
All Other Sectors
$400 2023 issuance represents $140
Convertible 70% of normalized average Tech
$350 $120 2023 IPO volumes
were 60% lower
$300 than the 20yr
$100
average
$250 $248bn
$80
$200 $174bn
$60 $47bn
$150
$40
$100
$19bn
$50 $20

$0 $0

1995

2005

2015
1993

1997

1999

2001

2003

2007

2009

2011

2013

2017

2019

2021

2023
1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023
Follow-ons Led The Tech Issuance Market
Bought Overnight Marketed
Overnight 100%
10.5%
Bought Risk-off sentiment in recent years has led to a spike in
Marketed overnight deals as issuers and investors seek minimal
80% market exposure
47.4%
We saw similar market behavior in 2010 as markets
recovered from the Global Financial Crisis
60%
42.1%

40%

Bought Overnight Marketed 20%

File / Offer (3.3%) (10.6%) (14.9%)

Avg. 1 Day 0%
(0.2%) (1.1%) (1.0%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Performance

____________________
3 Source: Dealogic and Bloomberg as of December 29, 2023. Excludes SPACs, ADRs, and deals with base size <$50mm.
…Yet Correction (Multiple or Rates) Looms in the Horizon
As the Volatility Index Has Declined, the Spread Between the S&P EPS Yield and the US 10-year Has Compressed

9% 90
Financial Crisis Max: 9% Covid-19

8%

7%

6% 60

5%

4%

3% 30

2%
12.4
1%
1%

Min : 1%
0% 0

Spread of S&P EPS Yield vs U.S.10Yrs Yield VIX


____________________
4 Source: Factset, Dealogic and Bloomberg as of February 1 st, 2024.
Recent IPO Vintages Performance Meets Benchmark Index…
US IPOs’ Vintage vs S&P Performance

28 75 127 104 6 4 11 8

57.5%
47.9%
29.1% 27.0% 29.6%
23.2%

12.2% 12.2%
7.7%
1.1%

(0.8%) (3.8%)

(10.8%)

(21.9%) (22.8%)

(47.0%)

1H2020 2H2020 1H2021 2H2021 1H2022 2H2022 1H2023 2H2023

U.S. IPO Price Performance on Average S&P Price Performance(1) Number of IPOs
____________________
5 Source: Dealogic and Factset as of February 1st, 2024. Excludes SPACs, biotech deals and deals with base size <US$50mm.
(1) Calculated as change in price of the S&P as of the date of the first IPO in the period to the 2 nd of February 2024.
... And PCM Volumes have Returned to Pre-COVID Levels
with a Direct Impact on Valuations and Size of New Rounds …
Market Evolution of Primary / Private Equity Capital Markets(1) Private Markets – Post-Money Valuation(2)
(US$bn)
US
(US$bn) (47%) (85%) (77%) (46%) (28%) (83%)
$251.1

$95.0
$170.2

$106.1 $110.1 $106.4


$92.9

~$53.7
$9.0 $4.8

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '23 YTD '24 YTD $50.0 $45.6
$40.0
LatAm $33.0
(US$bn)
$14.8
$17.7 $11.8
$9.4 $8.1
$6.7
$8.9 $5.8 $2.0

$4.7
$4.0 Mar-23 Jul-22 Updated Valuations Based on Aug-23 Sep-23
$2.7 $2.9 Investor Reports (2) (series D) (Growth)
~$2.3 (series I) (series H+)

$0.2 $0.2 Mar-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Jul-21 Apr-22 Mar-22


(series H) (series H) (series D) (series E) (series C3) (series E)
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '23 YTD '24 YTD

Annualized 2022 Valuation Latest Valuation % Discount


____________________
6 Source: Pitchbook as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) Includes all VC stage, all round numbers and all series within the software, e-commerce, insurtech and fintech industrIes.
(2) Valuations based on - Checkout.com: Company’s internal valuation adjustment in June 2023; and Revolut: Schroder’s write down of its stake in the company in April 2023.
...But After a Rebound in Debt Issuances in Early 2023,
Equity Remains the Preferred Source of Financing in LatAm
Monthly PCM Deals

2021 1H 2022 2H 2022 1H 2023 2H 2023


3% 3% 2%
24%
48%
52%
97% 97% 76% 98%

Debt Equity
Monthly PCM Equity Deals
(US$mm)
$219
$189
$160 $158
$119 $124
$98 $91 $102
$78
$65 $62
$25

Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24

Monthly PCM Debt Deals


(US$mm)

$258

$140
$91 $95 $100
$45 $50
$23 $21 $21
$0 $0 $0

Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24
____________________
7 Source: Pitchbook as of February 1st, 2023.
Note: Includes all VC stage, all round numbers, all series and all general debt within the software, e-commerce, insurtech and fintech industries.
LatAm Discount (vs US) Widens as Investors Fly to Quality
and Risk-Free Rates Increase
US Tech vs LatAm Tech 1yr Forward EV/EBITDA

35.0x

30.0x

25.0x

19.6x
20.0x
18.6x

15.0x

11.9x
10.0x 31%
9.1x

5.0x

0.0x
May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24

LatAm Tech(1) US Tech(1)

____________________
8 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) LatAm Tech includes Cielo, Dlocal, Evertec PagSeguro, and StoneCo. US Tech includes Block, Fiserv, Flywire, Global Payments, Paymentus, PayPal, Paysafe, Shift4, and Worldline.
Size and Profitability Matters Most in LatAm

Stock Index Performance by Valuation


140

120

100
91
80

60 283%

40
26
20

0
Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Valuation < 1bn(1) Valuation ≥ 1bn(2)

Stock Index Performance by Profitability


160
140
120
100
80 73
60
129%
40
32
20
0
Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24

Unprofitable(3) Profitable(4)
____________________
Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) Includes Dotz, Bemobi Mobile Tech, Americanas, Despegar.com, Enjoei, Infracommerce CXAAS, GetNinjas, Mobly, Meliuz, TC, Sequoia, Westwing Comercio Varejista, Clear Sale, CI&T, Locaweb, Neogrid, Positivo Tecnologia, Sinqia, Semantix,
9 Zenvia and Arco Platform.
(2) Includes Afya, Cielo, Dlocal, Nu Holdings,Globant, Intelbras, Inter & Co., Magazine Luiza, MercadoLibre, Nu Holdings, PagSeguro, StoneCo, TOTVS, VTEX and XP.
(3) Defined as unprofitable on a net income basis. Includes Dotz, Enjoei, Infracommerce CXAAS, Magazine Luiza, Mobly, Meliuz, Westwing Comercio Varejista, Semantix, VTEX and Zenvia.
(4) Includes Inter & Co, Dlocal, Nu Holdings, PagSeguro, StoneCo, XP, Bemobi Mobile Tech, Despegar, GetNinjas, MercadoLibre, Clear Sale, CI&T, Intelbras, Globant, Locaweb, TOTVS, Neogrid, Positivo Tecnologia and Sinqia.
2 e-Commerce Update
Resilient US Consumer Momentum
e-Commerce Global Market

Global Retail e-Commerce Market Size (1) 16%


(US$ bn)
5 E-Commerce Market Size
15%
CAGR India
Brazil

e-Commerce Market CAGR (‘22-‘27E)


16% 10%
14%
LatAm
$6,475
13% Mexico
USA
12%
$4,485
11% China
Australia
10%
12%
$2,121 $2,342 Spain
16% 9% Japan
$1,498 UK
EM(2) $702 15% 8% 8%
$1,148 $1,581 France
USA $573 Germany
7%
2018 2023 2027 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90
2022 GDP Per Capita (‘000s)
Spending Habits in the US
US Credit Card Spending
1-yr % change 2021 2022 2024 YTD Consumer desires for free shipping, speed of delivery, and omni-
1 channel presence
Airlines n.m. 21.5% (2.8%)

Lodging n.m. (7.6%) (6.7%)


Entertainment n.m. (4.0%) (5.5%)
For several years, clothing, apparel, consumer electronics and beauty
Restaurants 39.0% 4.6% (0.4%)
2 products have been the top purchased categories in e-Commerce
Transit 44.0% 4.2% (3.1%)

Gas 50.0% (3.2%) (10.0%)


Reopening impact will diminish digital comp sales growth relative to
Clothing 15.0% (16.2%) (4.4%) 3 in-store, while cost inflation, fuel and staffing costs put pressure on
Furniture 4.0% (15.6%) (15.4%) profits
Grocery (3.0%) 3.9% 2.6%
10 ____________________
Source: Dotcom Distribution, Euromonitor, and BofA Global Research as of January 27th, 2024.
(1) Retail E-Commerce value at retail selling price from Euromonitor.
(2) EM stands for Emerging Markets and includes Latin America, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey.
Amazon’s Growing Relevance in Every-day Purchase
Expanded Marketplace On-the-Back of Continued Growth of 3P Re-sellers
(Amazon Marketplace Revenues US$ bn(1))

Marketplace CAGR 12.6%


16.5%

$273
3P as % of Mktplc 28% 37% 40%
Revenues $226
$182
$141 $133

$54
12.5% 25.4% 10.0% 16.9%

1P 3P CAGR

Amazon Share of US E-commerce by Category Scale Advantage Difficult to Match

Top 5 Categories Share of US e-Commerce As % of AMZ’s GMV ❑ Amazon has a strong competitive logistics competitive advantage
with same-day / 1-day delivery
Books & Other 78% 4%
❑ Sticky customer pool due to subscription through prime

Electronics 45% 26% ❑ 220mm customers subscribe to Prime worldwide, with 168mm
in the US alone
CPGs 43% 22%
❑ Over 2mm active third-party sellers on the platform

40% 16%
❑ Available internationally, shipping to +100 countries with
Apparel & Acc.
fulfillment centers strategically located around the world

Toys & Hobbies 40% 3% ❑ Cost leadership through scale and operational synergy
71%
____________________
11 Source: Company website, Wall Street Research and Marketplace Pulse.
(1) Third-Party Revenues defined as commissions, related fulfillment and shipping fees, and other third-party seller services.
US Competitive Dynamics - New Fast Fashion Models
Momentum
Fast Fashion / Low-Price Battlefield
❑ Platform approach targets a ❑ D2C vertically integrated with
wide range of customers and ❑ Amazon has not matched lower prices offered by new no inventory or warehouses
services, while it holds high entrants, while FTC is investigating the company on Project in the US, and shipping on
Prime subscription Nessie demand from China
penetration (+70%) creating a ❑ Temu and Shein offer low-end price products, a category that
sticky customer mindset ❑ Low prices and longer
has become more attractive amid high inflation in the US delivery times
❑ Offers Next day / Same-day ❑ Unique visitors of Temu and Shein reached +70mm and
delivery capabilities with ❑ Shein targets fast fashion
+40mm in March 2023, while Amazon’s market share has while Temu has a broad
national capillarity remained flat in 2023 (+210/month) assortment, both have a
❑ Leading established platform ❑ Different brand perception in line with product quality and discount branding policy
with +40% share of all US e- attributes
commerce ❑ Shein launched its own D2C
marketplace and reached a
❑ Strong reliance on third-party deal with Forever 21
sellers
❑ Dynamic product
❑ Enduring competitive development in small batches
advantages built over to test appetite
decades in the market
❑ Temu has been expanding
❑ Amazon customer base is aggressively, becoming the
higher income than Shein and most downloaded shopping
Temu app in the US

Incumbent Global Market


New Entrant
Size(1):
US$1,940bn

____________________
12 Source: Wall Street Research and Wall Street Journal.
(1) Global marketplace retail value at retail selling price, excluding sales tax from Euromonitor.
US Competitive Dynamics - Customer Acquisition Strategy
Challenge
Customer Attention & Purchase Intent
❑ Customer trust built over the ❑ Social e-Commerce is expected to reach US$100bn in the US ❑ User’s high use of content
years with a sticky mindshare as social influence becomes more relevant for everyday services presents more
purchase natural opportunities to sell
❑ Efficient and sophisticated products or influence
logistics infrastructure for fast ❑ Tiktok’s UK marketplace business had limited adoptions purchases (i.e.: ~2.0hs /day vs
package delivery (since 2021) while recently launched US business is expected ~0.1hs/day in AMZ)
to yield sales of US$10mm/day
❑ Broad assortment and strong ❑ Leaders in content traffic, and
price-quality relationship, and ❑ Main competition is set on sellers and influencers adoption influencers relevance
transparent reviews and trust either platform, as they will drive products and business in-platform
purchase intention
❑ Limited social features; ❑ Offers lower fees than regular
recently launched influencers e-commerce as it relies more
network (Inspire) to increase on advertising
traffic and gain sales support
❑ Tiktok is building its own
❑ Relies on third-party sellers
for the lion-share of its sales ??? distribution networks to ship
products more efficiently
❑ Amazon has also unveiled ❑ Driven by an avid community
plans to use advanced of creators
technology, particularly
generative AI ❑ Deep resources in parent
company and a profitable
business model

Platform Content

____________________
13 Source: Wall Street Research and Wall Street Journal.
LatAm Headwinds Amid Changing Regulation and Macro
Dynamics
Mexico
Key Macro Trends Marketplace Players Performance
(E-Commerce Market Share) (App & URL Traffic Share)
◼ Inflation has remained above target
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
◼ To sustain higher spending levels, consumers 31.2% 57.9%
2.7% 36.4% 34.9% 35.2% 35.7% 36.4% 33.2% 30.3%
7.1%
are generally taking on greater debt: credit 4.2%
8.8% 13.2% 12.7% 12.7% 12.3% 12.8% 15.2% 15.5%
card balances increased 23% in 3Q23 3.3%
13.6% 9.2% 10.1% 10.1% 11.8% 12.0% 13.2%
10.5%
◼ +20% minimum wage increase is 12.3% 13.5% 14.3% 13.0% 12.9% 13.1% 12.3%
10.9%
contributing to strong salary mass trends 10.9%
- - - - - 1.1% 6.7%
◼ e-Commerce penetration increased to 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 7.3% 6.5% 5.7%
10.2% 20.4%
11.0% in 2022 from 8.6% in 2020 8.5% 8.9% 7.8% 5.5% 5.7% 5.2% 4.9%

4.1% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% 5.1% 4.9%


2018 2022

Brazil

Key Macro Trends Marketplace Players Performance


(App & URL Traffic Share) (MAUs, YoY % change)
◼ Macro headwind and highly levered
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
consumer (+27% of individual income
23.7% 23.6% 24.6% 20.9% 20.1% 19.5% 22.5% 9.0% 0.2% (4.0%)
pays debt service) diminished
21.0% 21.3% 20.7% 20.2% 20.3% 20.1% 19.5% 2.0% (1.6%) (3.1%)
consumption potential
8.2% 10.3% 11.7% 14.2% 16.3% 19.6% 18.9% 16.3% 63.3% 35.7%
◼ Cap’s to revolving interest rates will ease
7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 8.4% 9.3% 10.3% 10.7% 7.0% 14.9% 7.7%
consumers financial pressure and a more
11.4% 10.0% 9.4% 9.1% 10.4% 9.0% 8.1% 1.0% 0.1% (3.9%)
transparent consumer finance perspective
4.8% 5.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.5% 6.6% 7.3% 47.0% 42.1% 32.6%
◼ Remessa Conforme is expected to
7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 8.2% 7.5% 7.4% 6.8% 11.0% 10.9% 6.4%
increase X-border trade and attract new
8.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.0% (42.0%) (52.9%) (12.5%)
large entrants

14 ____________________
Source: Wall Street Research and BofA Macro Research Reports.
Note: Color on Tables refer to QoQ growth. If there is over a 1% growth it is green, and under a 1% decrease it is red. From -1% to 1% it is yellow. For MAU table, colors refer to YoY % value shown in the table.
(1) Total number of web visits in that period.
Growing Competitive Tension in LatAm
Loyalty Programs
Growth of Loyalty Programs
◼ With high price sensitivity in Latin America, consumers are emphasizing value (LatAm Lylty Mkts Value US$bn)
and craving more personalized rewards and brand engagement
CAGR: 13.3% $10.9
◼ Brazil is the largest market for loyalty programs in Latin America with 81% of
Brazilians participating in at least one
$5.9
◼ Omnichannel: Several of the largest retailers in LatAm are present across
multiple channels, generating loyalty as consumers collect points
◼ Scalability: By creating ecosystems through partnerships and by joining third
party coalition programmes, small players can gain scalability
2021A 2026E

New Cross-Border Entrants


Cross-border Transaction
◼ Brazil cross-border penetration is among the lowest in LatAm with tax (X-B as % of e-Comm)
complexity seen as a big hurdle 22% 23%
20%
◼ However, with the Remessa Conforme, cross border e-commerce in Brazil is 15%
expected to outpace domestic growth
◼ SHEIN and TEMU have been growing rapidly in LatAm in 2022, having +2.0% 6%
of market share in online retail in LatAm

Consumer Finance

◼ +60% of LatAm ecommerce transactions were paid using local credit cards
◼ Key markets such as Brazil, Peru and Chile are expected to cut rates in 2024,
thus reducing the financial cost of consumers and increasing purchase 1.00% 1.75% 0.25% 42%
capacity Cut in Brazil Cut in Chile Cut in Peru Merama’s
Rates Rates Rates Revenues
◼ Growing relevance of non-FIs in online purchases has become a critical
element to expand access to credit and leverage on non-banking
Brazil, Chile and Peru
information to extend credti Revenues as % of total

15 ____________________
Source: Wall Street Research, Business Wire, and Tracksellers.com.
(1) Offers such as free shipping, free content subscriptions to Disney+ and Star+ platforms and a free music subscription to the Deezer platform.
Mercado Libre Marketplace Performance
GMV(1) Items Sold Unique Active Users
(US$mm) CAGR (units) CAGR (units) CAGR
Fintech Users Commerce Users
620pp MS Growth
21.9%
Mkt Shr: 21.2% 27.4% 1,312 19.2%

25.0% 40,915 74 120

724
17.3%
20,927 62% 59%

22.2%
38% 41%

2020 3Q23 LTM 2020 3Q23 LTM Q420 Q323

Commerce Revenue
(US$mm) Increase in revenue attributable to:
CAGR
+252 $7,401 ➢ Advertising revenue expanded to 1.6% of GMV
+1,320
+609 ➢ Higher flat fee contributions for low GMV
+2,661 transactions
➢ Increase in revenue was offset by increase in shipping
$2,560 carrier costs of 63% from 2022 –3Q23 LTM

43% ➢ Increase in 1P sales since 2022


➢ Increase in revenue from commerce services(2) which
2020 Revenue Brazil Argentina Mexico Other 3Q23 LTM
accounted to 83% of commerce revenues in 3Q23

____________________
16 Source: Company filings and Wall Street Research.
(1) Stands for Gross Merchandise Volume.
(2) Commerce services revenue refers tot final value fees paid by sellers derived from intermediation services and related shipping and storage fees. Commerce product sales is the other revenue that contributes
to Commerce Revenue and it refers to revenues from inventory sales and related shipping fees.
Mercado Libre Marketplace Performance (Cont’d)
Management Network
Take Rate(1) Marketplace TPV(3)
Penetration(2) (US$bn)

CAGR: 6.8%
CAGR: 15.2% 94% CAGR: 21.7% $36
19%
77%

12%
$20

2020 3Q23 LTM 2020 2023 YTD 2020 3Q23 LTM

EBIT Margin
Increase in EBIT Margin attributable to:

3.3% 18.2%
➢ Dilution of operating expenses, particularly G&A, as
0.3%
3.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% the business scales
11.0% (0.7%)
➢ Better asset quality in the credit business

➢ Partial off-set by higher product development due


to an increase in headcount
EBIT Margin COGS excl. Salaries & Product G&A & Other Marketing & Buyer Chargebacks Bad Debt EBIT Margin
3Q'22 Salaries Wages Dvpmt Exp. Expenses Sales Inv. Protection Provisions 3Q'23

____________________
17 Source: Company filings and Wall Street Research.
(1) Calculated as Commerce Revenues as % of Total GMV.
(2) Includes fulfillment, cross docking & flex.
(3) Total US$ sum of marketplace transactions paid for using Mercado Pago, excluding shipping and financing fees.
Industry Multiples Remain Discounted from Recent
Maximums, Despite a Slight Recovery Post the Rate Hike Cycle
EV / NTM Revenue

12.8x 59.2%
Premium
11.2x

7.1x
5.9%
Premium
5.6x
4.5%
4.9x Premium
4.6x
45.6% 4.4x
14.2%
Premium
3.4x 3.5x Premium
2.9x 2.8x
2.7x
1.8x 1.9x
1.7x

1 2 3 4 5
Marketplace Payments

2-Yrs Ago 1-Yr Ago Feb-2024


____________________
18 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
Note: Marketplace considers the median multiples for eBay, Etsy, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Airbnb & Doordash. Payments considers the median multiples for Paypal, Block, Stone and Pagseguro.
3 Food Delivery Update
Share Price Evolution and Broker Outlook
Public Market Overview
Upside
52-Week High / Low 52 High / Low 6 Months 3 Months 1 Month vs. TP(1) Analysts Buy / Hold / Sell

$1,063.0 $1,800.1 97.1% / 164.5% 44.4% 34.5% 11.2% 6.3% 17 76% 24%

$88.1 $161.7 98.5% / 180.8% 21.0% 16.3% 4.8% 16.5% 54 96% 4%

$16.5 $52.9 33.9% / 108.3% (46.7%) (6.5%) (24.2%) 38.1% 25 64% 32% 4%

$12.7 $20.0 69.6% / 109.8% (23.6%) (12.0%) (14.1%) 50.2% 12 75% 25%

$29.5 $90.7 56.5% / 173.6% (32.5%) 15.5% (17.0%) 36.0% 33 55% 45%

$12.3 $36.7 35.0% / 104.1% (53.8%) (41.8%) (18.8%) 96.3% 15 67% 20% 13%

$0.6 $1.7 97.9% / 295.0% 64.5% 36.0% 13.2% 0.6% 18 83% 17%

$51.5 $110.5 97.1% / 208.3% 23.9% 41.4% 8.5% 0.7% 30 50% 47% 3%

$4.2 $13.1 50.1% / 154.3% (45.3%) 13.5% (32.3%) 33.9% 11 36% 18% 45%

$29.2 $67.7 98.6% / 228.4% 43.0% 52.2% 8.4% 2.2% 42 95% 5%

$10.7 $26.8 56.0% / 140.1% (12.3%) 23.7% (1.2%) 46.2% 17 47% 35% 18%

$21.8 $63.3 36.8% / 106.9% (45.9%) (9.4%) (15.7%) 119.0% 16 69% 31%

$2.7 $3.9 79.8% / 118.1% (17.6%) 2.6% (7.1%) 50.3% 22 95% 5%

$22.1 $43.0 58.8% / 114.1% n.a.(2)


#N/A 0.8% 7.6% 32.2% 19 47% 53%

Integrated Meal-Kit On Demand Buy Sell Hold

____________________
19 Source: Factset as of January February 1st, 2024.
(1) Calculated as: (Target Price / Current Price) – 1.
(2) Instacart’s IPO was dated September 19th, 2023.
Comparable Companies’ Benchmark
Integrated Meal-Kit

Market Cap 1,646,004 88,392 22,437 4,727 7,722 2,224


(1)
Users (mm) n.a. 109.0 19.7 22.0 20.4 7.3
Size
Orders (mm/year) n.a. 1,239.0 n.a. 40.0 n.a. 121.1

Revenues LTM 538,046 12,144 22,067 11,886 10,802 8,304

0 0 0 0 0 8,304
9% 17%
43% 41% 45%
222,082 6,738 19,646 11,886 8,961 0
100% 100%
Segments 55%
85,410
16% 0 0
91% 0 83%
0 0

230,554 5,406 Marketplace 2,046


Software / Services Others (2) 0 Meal-Kit 1,841 0
Business Mix
371,866 12,144 0 10,326 10,099 5,003
13% 13%
5% 40%
63,672 0 0 0 0 0
Geography 12% 100% 100% 100%
70%
24,396 0 20,583 087% 0 0 60%

69,802 0 0 1,560 0 3,301


Americas EMEA APAC RoW

Rev. Growth '23 11.1% 35.4% 17.1% (1.7)% 9.2% 0.4%


(YoY) '24E 11.6% 22.0% 12.9% 3.1% 5.5% 7.6%

'23 46.8% 52.1% 24.9% 30.6% 28.2% 59.9%


Gross Profit
Margins '24E 47.5% 52.5% 25.0% 31.0% 28.4% 60.2%
(Profit / Losses) '23 18.5% 19.0% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% 5.6%
EBITDA
'24E 18.8% 19.4% 4.8% 4.5% 3.4% 6.9%

Marketplace Consolidated(7)
(3)
Take Rate (%) 15.0%(4)
18.3% 17.7% 21.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
(4)
Unit Economics Value per Order ($) n.a. 31 n.a. 300 n.a. 69
(5)
ARPU ($) n.a. 142 173 997 540 440 1,138
(6)
CAC ($) n.a. 59 331 n.a. 48,070 1,267
____________________
Source: Factset as of February 1st 2024 and Company filings. Note: Figures in US$mm, unless otherwise stated.
(4) Value per order based on Q2 2023 LTM.
(1) Active users as of Q2 2023.
(5) ARPU = Marketplace Revenue / Marketplace Users. All ARPU data based on Q2 2023 LTM;.
(2) Others include Fintech (for MercadoLibre), Physical stores, Third party services, Subscriptions and Advertising services
(6) CAC = Sales & Marketing / Change of users in a year, All CAC based on Q2 2023 LTM excluding Coupang for which
20 (for Amazon).
figures are as of FY 2022;.
(3) Take Rate = Marketplace Revenue / GMV. All take rate data based on Q2 2023 LTM; For those players noted as “n.a.”
(7) Consolidated assumes that Total Payment On-Marketplace revenue represent the same percentage of Fintech
the company is considered to be principal regarding Revenue recognition. Amazon take rate refers to revenue from
Revenue as TPV On-Marketplace of TPV.
third party seller services, which includes referral fees and additional services, divided by GMV.
Comparable Companies’ Benchmark (Cont’d)
On Demand

Market Cap 137,321 39,781 11,728 6,326 7,075 5,425 14,755 3,309
(1)
Users (mm) 137.0 32.0 34.9 n.a. n.a. 1.0 17.5 87.0
Size
Orders (mm/year) 8,463.0 1,950.0 n.a. 2,791.5 263.2 20.0 661.6 925.0
Revenues LTM 35,003 7,687 1,993 10,397 2,900 3,326 1,058 5,813

11,851 7,687 1,005 10,397 2,081 2,870 721 5,566


4%
28% 14% 26%
34%
0 0 49%0 51% 0 0 0 0 0
Segments 66% 100% 100% 72%
23,152 0 970 0 0 86%
461 74%
0 96%
0

0 0 0 On
OnDemand
Demand 0 Software
Software//Services
819
Services Others(2)(2) 0
Others 248 248
Business Mix
22,494 7,030 0 787 2,894 0 0 2,585
12% 9% 9% 6%
8,477 0 0 4,165
45% 0 3,005 0 3,22944%
Geography 24% 100% 100% 100%
46% 56%
64%
4,032 91%
0 1,433 4,082 0 94%
0 1,058 0

0 657 Americas EMEA 0APAC RoW188 0 0


Americas EMEA APAC RoW

Rev. Growth '23E 16.4% 30.4% 61.9% 16.4% 19.3% 11.1% 35.7% (6.0)%
(YoY) '24E 15.3% 17.6% 21.0% 12.4% 7.0% 10.0% 42.6% 3.8%

'23E 39.8% 47.8% 37.2% 29.8% 75.3% 39.7% 75.2% 45.9%


Gross Profit
Margins '24E 40.5% 48.6% 44.4% 31.6% 75.7% 41.2% 75.3% 46.5%
(Profit / Losses) '23E 10.7% 13.8% (1.1)% 1.9% 20.2% 2.1% (1.2)% 6.1%
EBITDA
'24E 13.9% 15.9% 6.0% 5.9% 22.0% 5.8% 7.1% 7.5%

Take Rate (%)(3) 28.0% 12.7% 8.7% 21.3% 9.9% n.a. 17.3% 18.9%
(4)
Unit Economics Value per Order ($) 15 31 n.a. n.a. 112 144 6 32
(5)
ARPU ($) 255 240 51 n.a. n.a. 2,993 41 64
CAC ($)(6) 297 240 104 n.a. n.a. 920 89 n.a.
____________________
Source: Company flings and Factset as of February 1 st 2024. Note: Figures in US$mm, unless otherwise stated. All figures as (4) Value per order based on Q2 2023 LTM;
of Q2 2023 unless otherwise stated. (5) ARPU = Marketplace Revenue / Marketplace Users. All ARPU data based on Q2 2023 LTM;
(1) Active users as of Q2 2023 excluding Doordash for which figures are as of Q4 2022. (6) CAC = Sales & Marketing / Change of users in a year, All CAC based on Q2 2023 LTM except for Doordash for which
21 (2) Others include Hyperpure & Others (for Zomato) and Ancillary (for Just Eat). figures are as of FY 2022.
(3) Take Rate = Marketplace Revenue / GMV. All take rate data based on Q2 2023 LTM; For those players noted as “n.a.”
the company is considered to be principal regarding Revenue recognition;.
Margins Evolution
Companies’ order growth has slowed down as competition has intensified, leading to an evolution in take rates to adapt to market dynamics

Orders Growth Have Stabilized Take Rate Steadily Increasing


(YoY %) (Revenue / GMV, %)
(1,314 bps) in 10 Quarters
Avg: 15.6% +146 bps in 10 Quarters
Avg: 14.4%

Avg: 4.0% Avg: 14.2%


Avg: 12.9%

28% 16%
16%
15%
15%

13% 13%
15% Avg: 2.4% 13%
14% 11%
13% 10%

8% 8%
6%
5%
3%
0%
(2%)
Dec-21

Dec-22
Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-23
Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23

Mar-21

Mar-22
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Jun-22
Dec-21

Dec-22
Jun-21

Jun-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
(1)

____________________
22 Source: Company fillings and Factset as of February 1 st, 2024.
(1) Assumes a 50/50 split in total orders, GMV, and revenues for latest half-year results, due to lack of availability of quarterly information.
Margins Evolution (Cont’d)
Companies’ higher take rates and strategic initiatives have elevated AOVs and led to enhanced EBITDA margins

EBITDA Margin Recovering AOV Growth Evolution


(EBITDA / Gross Profit, %) (GMV / Orders, YoY %)
+2,630 bps in 6 Quarters

Avg: 11.2%

Avg; (15.1%)
26%
20%
3%
16%
12%
11% 2%
11%
0% 1%
(0%) 0%
(0%) (0%)
(1%)
(4%)
(8%)
(14%)
(15%) (2%)
Jun-21
Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-22

Jun-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Mar-21

Dec-21

Mar-22

Dec-22

Mar-23
Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23
(1)

____________________
23 Source: Company fillings, PYMNTS TV, and Factset as of February 1 st, 2024.
(1) Assumes a 50/50 split in total orders and GMV for latest half-year results, due to lack of availability of quarterly information.
Trading Multiples ’24E
Benchmarking peer’s trading multiples indicates investors warrant a premium to On Demand players, in terms of EV/revenues

EV / Revenues ’24E

9x Median 0.8x Median 2.3x


7.5x
6x
3.9x 3.9x 3.4x
2.9x 1.6x 1.7x 0.8x
3x 2.7x
0.8x 0.8x 0.6x
0.3x 0.7x
0x

EV / Gross Profit / Growth ’24E

0.8x 23% 13% 13% 4% 6% 8% 43% 44% 20% 8% 17% 14% 19% 5%

0.6x Median 0.41x 0.56x 0.49x Median 0.28x


0.41x 0.44x 0.36x 0.40x
0.4x 0.23x 0.28x 0.29x 0.28x
0.25x
0.2x 0.15x 0.14x
0.06x
0.0x

EV / Gross Profit ’24E

30x 52% 47% 25% 31% 28% 60% 75% 44% 49% 76% 40% 41% 32% 47%

20x Median 4.1x Median 5.3x


9.5x 10.0x 8.5x
6.5x 7.9x
10x 5.7x 2.2x 4.1x 1.5x
3.3x 2.5x 2.1x 2.7x
0.5x
0x

(1)

Integrated Meal-Kit On Demand Gross Profit Growth ’23E-’24E Gross Profit Margin ’24E

____________________
24 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) MercadoLibre’s EV/Revenues and EV/Revenues/Growth are adjusted by deducting the relative valuation of the Fintech business estimated based on an EV/TPV ‘24E of 0.2x and $213.3bn TPV ‘24E.
EV / Revenues ’24E vs Growth + Gross Margin ’24E
A regression analysis of comparable companies demonstrates a positive correlation between growth and profitability and their respective EV/Revenue
multiples. As order growth has stabilized from ’22 levels, gross profit margins have risen (especially for On Demand players) as a result of an increased
focus on cost efficiencies and larger shopping baskets, driving multiple re-ratings.

12x

Jan-22
10x

8x
EV / Revenues '24E

Dec-23
Jan-24
6x Feb-24
Aug-23
Oct-23
Sep-23
4x
Jan-23
(1)

2x

0x
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%

Revenue Growth '23E-'24E + Gross Margin '24E

Integrated Meal-Kit On Demand

____________________
25 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) MercadoLibre’s EV/Revenues and EV/Revenues/Growth are adjusted by deducting the relative valuation of the Fintech business estimated based on an EV/TPV ‘24E of 0.2x and $213.3bn TPV ‘24E.
Wonder Group’s Acquisition of Blue Apron
Share Price Performance (%)
BA announced considering going
private amid fall in revenue BA announced a partnership BA went live WG announced
BA reported a net
with Amazon to run on on Amazon the acquisition
loss of $109.7mm
Alexa smart speakers of BA
BA sold its
operational Share price before
infrastructure to announcement:
$189.51 FreshRealm(3) $5.50
$86.16

BA laid-off 10% of
Covid-19 surge

corporate workforce
$87.47

$13

Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Blue Apron DoorDash

About Wonder Group About Blue Apron

▪ Mealtime super app platform operates a ▪ A leading prepared and ready to eat(2), and meal kit
collection of vertically-integrated and delivery- food delivery platform, through on-demand and
first restaurants, focused on high/mid-end dishes, with operations subscription services selection only in the US
mainly in New York and New Jersey
▪ In Jun-17 the company completed its IPO in Nasdaq at a
▪ Founded in 2018 by Marc Lore(1) currently has +1,000 employees valuation of US$1.9bn
▪ Innovative platform that serves hybrid approach of dine-in and on-
demand delivery, and more recently expanding into providing B2B ▪ Prior to the acquisition the company:
software and services for large events
▪ Transferred its stock exchange listing from NYSE to Nasdaq
▪ The company has managed to close exclusivity with leading
restaurants and chefs that help strengthen the brand ▪ Reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.6mm, a $13.3mm
improvement year-over-year
▪ In Nov-23 the company received a $100mm investment from
Nestle at a $3.8bn valuation, reaching a total $950mm funds raised ▪ Reported a debt free structure, after $50mm transaction (3)
26
____________________ ready-to-eat category with the launch Serial entrepreneur (Wizard, (2) Of Prepared & Ready meals, available to order now for weekly
Source: Company website, Research Reports and Marketplace Pulse. Mojo, Jet.com, Quidsi Inc), Owner of Minnesota Timberwolves and shipments starting January 2024.
(1) In December 2023, Blue Apron announced the expansions into the Minnesota Lynx, former President & CEO of Walmart. (3) Transaction to pivot into asset-light model with FreshRealm.
Wonder Group’s Acquisition of Blue Apron (Cont’d.)
Key Highlights Revenue
Figures in US$mm
Announcement: September 2023 CAGR: (9.9%)
Key Dates: Tender: November 2023
$881.19
Closing: November 2023

$13/ share equivalent to 137%(1) and 137% premium $667.60


Valuation: to share price and analysts review
$103mm valuation equivalent to 0.2x EV/Revenue $454.87 $460.61 $470.38 $458.47 $424.92

BA Total
$696mm as of November 13th, 2023
Funding:

Payment: 100% Cash


Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Sep-23
LTM
Strategic Rationale Free Cashflow
Figures in US$mm
New Wonder incorporated a customer base of
Sep-23
Channel & approximately 267k users, and plans to target them
Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 LTM
User Profile under the Blue Apron brand
Wonder plans to maintain the asset-light profile
Asset-Light
stablished by Blue Apron, with the sale of the ($22.50) ($12.45)
Business operational infrastructure in June 2022 ($54.25) ($46.39)

[Wonder could leverage its existing production ($92.83) ($100.52)


Synergies: capacity, and incorporate the Blue Apron brand into
their apps connectivity
Highly Wonder will be able to leverage packaging, recipes
Comple- and distribution already developed under other
mentary brands in their portfolio
____________________ ($276.68)
27 Source: Company website, Research Reports and Marketplace Pulse.
(1) Premium over the price at close on November 9th, 2023.
Hello Fresh’s Acquisition of Factor
Key Highlights About Hello Fresh

▪ HelloFresh is a global, Germany-based operator of an online


Announcement: November 2020 marketplace and delivery service for cooking ingredients and
Key Dates: Tender: December 2020 recipes for different meal occasions
Closing: December 2020
▪ Has 8 brands and delivered over 1bn meals in 2022
$277mm valuation
Valuation: ▪ As of Q3 2023, Hello Fresh generated ~US$1.7bn in revenue and
Equivalent to 2.8x EV/Revenue
~7.1mm active customers
Brands Overview
BA Total $14.7mm as of December 2020
Meal-Kit RTE Meat and Petfood
Funding: (including $4mm in debt, before acquisition)

Payment: 64% cash and 36% earnout

Strategic Rationale About Factor

▪ With this acquisition, Hello Fresh targeted tapping into new ▪ Founded in 2013, Factor is a US-based software e-Commerce
customer segments that Factor dominated, increasing their company providing healthy, fully-prepared meals with
capacity in the US market approximately 60%(1) market share in the US RTE industry

▪ Acquisition was projected to drive supply chain and operational ▪ The company has a weekly rotating menu of breakfast, lunch, and
synergies due to the complimentary nature in product offerings dinner options are hand-crafted by gourmet chefs

▪ Recent Developments: ▪ Every meal is free of refined sugars, gluten, soy, hormones,
antibiotics, and GMOs for healthy, clean eating
Since the deal, HelloFresh has scaled its presence in the ready-to-eat
Factor Meals
(RTE) market through the integration and rollout of Factor, increasing
production capacity by 5x in 2021 and subsequently by 2x in North
America in 2022(1)

____________________
28 Source: Companies websites, Businesswire, Mergermarket.
(1) Per HelloFresh’s management estimates, as of the March 2023 Capital Markets Day presentation.

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