02.24 Presentation To Farmu VF
02.24 Presentation To Farmu VF
Market Update
February 2024
Market Update
Presentation to Farmu
25% 24.2%
10% 10%
$2,000
$3,274
$1,500 $2,994 $2,905
$2,795
The Russell 2000 posted a 22.0% gain
$1,000 $2,091
following October vs. the S&P’s 12.6%, $1,756 $1,671
highlighting the improved breadth of the $1,570
$1,223
year end rally $500 $912 $910 $790
$0
____________________
2 Source: Bloomberg as of December 29th, 2023.
(1) Reflects Bloomberg Respective Country Exchange Market Cap
2023 ECM Activity: Recovery Has Been Steady…
ECM Issuance Climbed Back to Near Normalized Average Tech IPO Issuance Up Y/Y Though Trailed The Normalized Average
Issuance ($bn) Issuance ($bn)
$500 IPO 2022 to 2023: $467bn
+66% in issuance volume $160
$450 Follow-On $152bn
All Other Sectors
$400 2023 issuance represents $140
Convertible 70% of normalized average Tech
$350 $120 2023 IPO volumes
were 60% lower
$300 than the 20yr
$100
average
$250 $248bn
$80
$200 $174bn
$60 $47bn
$150
$40
$100
$19bn
$50 $20
$0 $0
1995
2005
2015
1993
1997
1999
2001
2003
2007
2009
2011
2013
2017
2019
2021
2023
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Follow-ons Led The Tech Issuance Market
Bought Overnight Marketed
Overnight 100%
10.5%
Bought Risk-off sentiment in recent years has led to a spike in
Marketed overnight deals as issuers and investors seek minimal
80% market exposure
47.4%
We saw similar market behavior in 2010 as markets
recovered from the Global Financial Crisis
60%
42.1%
40%
Avg. 1 Day 0%
(0.2%) (1.1%) (1.0%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Performance
____________________
3 Source: Dealogic and Bloomberg as of December 29, 2023. Excludes SPACs, ADRs, and deals with base size <$50mm.
…Yet Correction (Multiple or Rates) Looms in the Horizon
As the Volatility Index Has Declined, the Spread Between the S&P EPS Yield and the US 10-year Has Compressed
9% 90
Financial Crisis Max: 9% Covid-19
8%
7%
6% 60
5%
4%
3% 30
2%
12.4
1%
1%
Min : 1%
0% 0
28 75 127 104 6 4 11 8
57.5%
47.9%
29.1% 27.0% 29.6%
23.2%
12.2% 12.2%
7.7%
1.1%
(0.8%) (3.8%)
(10.8%)
(21.9%) (22.8%)
(47.0%)
U.S. IPO Price Performance on Average S&P Price Performance(1) Number of IPOs
____________________
5 Source: Dealogic and Factset as of February 1st, 2024. Excludes SPACs, biotech deals and deals with base size <US$50mm.
(1) Calculated as change in price of the S&P as of the date of the first IPO in the period to the 2 nd of February 2024.
... And PCM Volumes have Returned to Pre-COVID Levels
with a Direct Impact on Valuations and Size of New Rounds …
Market Evolution of Primary / Private Equity Capital Markets(1) Private Markets – Post-Money Valuation(2)
(US$bn)
US
(US$bn) (47%) (85%) (77%) (46%) (28%) (83%)
$251.1
$95.0
$170.2
~$53.7
$9.0 $4.8
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '23 YTD '24 YTD $50.0 $45.6
$40.0
LatAm $33.0
(US$bn)
$14.8
$17.7 $11.8
$9.4 $8.1
$6.7
$8.9 $5.8 $2.0
$4.7
$4.0 Mar-23 Jul-22 Updated Valuations Based on Aug-23 Sep-23
$2.7 $2.9 Investor Reports (2) (series D) (Growth)
~$2.3 (series I) (series H+)
Debt Equity
Monthly PCM Equity Deals
(US$mm)
$219
$189
$160 $158
$119 $124
$98 $91 $102
$78
$65 $62
$25
Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24
$258
$140
$91 $95 $100
$45 $50
$23 $21 $21
$0 $0 $0
Jan 23 Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24
____________________
7 Source: Pitchbook as of February 1st, 2023.
Note: Includes all VC stage, all round numbers, all series and all general debt within the software, e-commerce, insurtech and fintech industries.
LatAm Discount (vs US) Widens as Investors Fly to Quality
and Risk-Free Rates Increase
US Tech vs LatAm Tech 1yr Forward EV/EBITDA
35.0x
30.0x
25.0x
19.6x
20.0x
18.6x
15.0x
11.9x
10.0x 31%
9.1x
5.0x
0.0x
May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24
____________________
8 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) LatAm Tech includes Cielo, Dlocal, Evertec PagSeguro, and StoneCo. US Tech includes Block, Fiserv, Flywire, Global Payments, Paymentus, PayPal, Paysafe, Shift4, and Worldline.
Size and Profitability Matters Most in LatAm
120
100
91
80
60 283%
40
26
20
0
Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24
Valuation < 1bn(1) Valuation ≥ 1bn(2)
Unprofitable(3) Profitable(4)
____________________
Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) Includes Dotz, Bemobi Mobile Tech, Americanas, Despegar.com, Enjoei, Infracommerce CXAAS, GetNinjas, Mobly, Meliuz, TC, Sequoia, Westwing Comercio Varejista, Clear Sale, CI&T, Locaweb, Neogrid, Positivo Tecnologia, Sinqia, Semantix,
9 Zenvia and Arco Platform.
(2) Includes Afya, Cielo, Dlocal, Nu Holdings,Globant, Intelbras, Inter & Co., Magazine Luiza, MercadoLibre, Nu Holdings, PagSeguro, StoneCo, TOTVS, VTEX and XP.
(3) Defined as unprofitable on a net income basis. Includes Dotz, Enjoei, Infracommerce CXAAS, Magazine Luiza, Mobly, Meliuz, Westwing Comercio Varejista, Semantix, VTEX and Zenvia.
(4) Includes Inter & Co, Dlocal, Nu Holdings, PagSeguro, StoneCo, XP, Bemobi Mobile Tech, Despegar, GetNinjas, MercadoLibre, Clear Sale, CI&T, Intelbras, Globant, Locaweb, TOTVS, Neogrid, Positivo Tecnologia and Sinqia.
2 e-Commerce Update
Resilient US Consumer Momentum
e-Commerce Global Market
$273
3P as % of Mktplc 28% 37% 40%
Revenues $226
$182
$141 $133
$54
12.5% 25.4% 10.0% 16.9%
1P 3P CAGR
Top 5 Categories Share of US e-Commerce As % of AMZ’s GMV ❑ Amazon has a strong competitive logistics competitive advantage
with same-day / 1-day delivery
Books & Other 78% 4%
❑ Sticky customer pool due to subscription through prime
Electronics 45% 26% ❑ 220mm customers subscribe to Prime worldwide, with 168mm
in the US alone
CPGs 43% 22%
❑ Over 2mm active third-party sellers on the platform
40% 16%
❑ Available internationally, shipping to +100 countries with
Apparel & Acc.
fulfillment centers strategically located around the world
Toys & Hobbies 40% 3% ❑ Cost leadership through scale and operational synergy
71%
____________________
11 Source: Company website, Wall Street Research and Marketplace Pulse.
(1) Third-Party Revenues defined as commissions, related fulfillment and shipping fees, and other third-party seller services.
US Competitive Dynamics - New Fast Fashion Models
Momentum
Fast Fashion / Low-Price Battlefield
❑ Platform approach targets a ❑ D2C vertically integrated with
wide range of customers and ❑ Amazon has not matched lower prices offered by new no inventory or warehouses
services, while it holds high entrants, while FTC is investigating the company on Project in the US, and shipping on
Prime subscription Nessie demand from China
penetration (+70%) creating a ❑ Temu and Shein offer low-end price products, a category that
sticky customer mindset ❑ Low prices and longer
has become more attractive amid high inflation in the US delivery times
❑ Offers Next day / Same-day ❑ Unique visitors of Temu and Shein reached +70mm and
delivery capabilities with ❑ Shein targets fast fashion
+40mm in March 2023, while Amazon’s market share has while Temu has a broad
national capillarity remained flat in 2023 (+210/month) assortment, both have a
❑ Leading established platform ❑ Different brand perception in line with product quality and discount branding policy
with +40% share of all US e- attributes
commerce ❑ Shein launched its own D2C
marketplace and reached a
❑ Strong reliance on third-party deal with Forever 21
sellers
❑ Dynamic product
❑ Enduring competitive development in small batches
advantages built over to test appetite
decades in the market
❑ Temu has been expanding
❑ Amazon customer base is aggressively, becoming the
higher income than Shein and most downloaded shopping
Temu app in the US
____________________
12 Source: Wall Street Research and Wall Street Journal.
(1) Global marketplace retail value at retail selling price, excluding sales tax from Euromonitor.
US Competitive Dynamics - Customer Acquisition Strategy
Challenge
Customer Attention & Purchase Intent
❑ Customer trust built over the ❑ Social e-Commerce is expected to reach US$100bn in the US ❑ User’s high use of content
years with a sticky mindshare as social influence becomes more relevant for everyday services presents more
purchase natural opportunities to sell
❑ Efficient and sophisticated products or influence
logistics infrastructure for fast ❑ Tiktok’s UK marketplace business had limited adoptions purchases (i.e.: ~2.0hs /day vs
package delivery (since 2021) while recently launched US business is expected ~0.1hs/day in AMZ)
to yield sales of US$10mm/day
❑ Broad assortment and strong ❑ Leaders in content traffic, and
price-quality relationship, and ❑ Main competition is set on sellers and influencers adoption influencers relevance
transparent reviews and trust either platform, as they will drive products and business in-platform
purchase intention
❑ Limited social features; ❑ Offers lower fees than regular
recently launched influencers e-commerce as it relies more
network (Inspire) to increase on advertising
traffic and gain sales support
❑ Tiktok is building its own
❑ Relies on third-party sellers
for the lion-share of its sales ??? distribution networks to ship
products more efficiently
❑ Amazon has also unveiled ❑ Driven by an avid community
plans to use advanced of creators
technology, particularly
generative AI ❑ Deep resources in parent
company and a profitable
business model
Platform Content
____________________
13 Source: Wall Street Research and Wall Street Journal.
LatAm Headwinds Amid Changing Regulation and Macro
Dynamics
Mexico
Key Macro Trends Marketplace Players Performance
(E-Commerce Market Share) (App & URL Traffic Share)
◼ Inflation has remained above target
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
◼ To sustain higher spending levels, consumers 31.2% 57.9%
2.7% 36.4% 34.9% 35.2% 35.7% 36.4% 33.2% 30.3%
7.1%
are generally taking on greater debt: credit 4.2%
8.8% 13.2% 12.7% 12.7% 12.3% 12.8% 15.2% 15.5%
card balances increased 23% in 3Q23 3.3%
13.6% 9.2% 10.1% 10.1% 11.8% 12.0% 13.2%
10.5%
◼ +20% minimum wage increase is 12.3% 13.5% 14.3% 13.0% 12.9% 13.1% 12.3%
10.9%
contributing to strong salary mass trends 10.9%
- - - - - 1.1% 6.7%
◼ e-Commerce penetration increased to 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 7.3% 6.5% 5.7%
10.2% 20.4%
11.0% in 2022 from 8.6% in 2020 8.5% 8.9% 7.8% 5.5% 5.7% 5.2% 4.9%
Brazil
14 ____________________
Source: Wall Street Research and BofA Macro Research Reports.
Note: Color on Tables refer to QoQ growth. If there is over a 1% growth it is green, and under a 1% decrease it is red. From -1% to 1% it is yellow. For MAU table, colors refer to YoY % value shown in the table.
(1) Total number of web visits in that period.
Growing Competitive Tension in LatAm
Loyalty Programs
Growth of Loyalty Programs
◼ With high price sensitivity in Latin America, consumers are emphasizing value (LatAm Lylty Mkts Value US$bn)
and craving more personalized rewards and brand engagement
CAGR: 13.3% $10.9
◼ Brazil is the largest market for loyalty programs in Latin America with 81% of
Brazilians participating in at least one
$5.9
◼ Omnichannel: Several of the largest retailers in LatAm are present across
multiple channels, generating loyalty as consumers collect points
◼ Scalability: By creating ecosystems through partnerships and by joining third
party coalition programmes, small players can gain scalability
2021A 2026E
Consumer Finance
◼ +60% of LatAm ecommerce transactions were paid using local credit cards
◼ Key markets such as Brazil, Peru and Chile are expected to cut rates in 2024,
thus reducing the financial cost of consumers and increasing purchase 1.00% 1.75% 0.25% 42%
capacity Cut in Brazil Cut in Chile Cut in Peru Merama’s
Rates Rates Rates Revenues
◼ Growing relevance of non-FIs in online purchases has become a critical
element to expand access to credit and leverage on non-banking
Brazil, Chile and Peru
information to extend credti Revenues as % of total
15 ____________________
Source: Wall Street Research, Business Wire, and Tracksellers.com.
(1) Offers such as free shipping, free content subscriptions to Disney+ and Star+ platforms and a free music subscription to the Deezer platform.
Mercado Libre Marketplace Performance
GMV(1) Items Sold Unique Active Users
(US$mm) CAGR (units) CAGR (units) CAGR
Fintech Users Commerce Users
620pp MS Growth
21.9%
Mkt Shr: 21.2% 27.4% 1,312 19.2%
724
17.3%
20,927 62% 59%
22.2%
38% 41%
Commerce Revenue
(US$mm) Increase in revenue attributable to:
CAGR
+252 $7,401 ➢ Advertising revenue expanded to 1.6% of GMV
+1,320
+609 ➢ Higher flat fee contributions for low GMV
+2,661 transactions
➢ Increase in revenue was offset by increase in shipping
$2,560 carrier costs of 63% from 2022 –3Q23 LTM
____________________
16 Source: Company filings and Wall Street Research.
(1) Stands for Gross Merchandise Volume.
(2) Commerce services revenue refers tot final value fees paid by sellers derived from intermediation services and related shipping and storage fees. Commerce product sales is the other revenue that contributes
to Commerce Revenue and it refers to revenues from inventory sales and related shipping fees.
Mercado Libre Marketplace Performance (Cont’d)
Management Network
Take Rate(1) Marketplace TPV(3)
Penetration(2) (US$bn)
CAGR: 6.8%
CAGR: 15.2% 94% CAGR: 21.7% $36
19%
77%
12%
$20
EBIT Margin
Increase in EBIT Margin attributable to:
3.3% 18.2%
➢ Dilution of operating expenses, particularly G&A, as
0.3%
3.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% the business scales
11.0% (0.7%)
➢ Better asset quality in the credit business
____________________
17 Source: Company filings and Wall Street Research.
(1) Calculated as Commerce Revenues as % of Total GMV.
(2) Includes fulfillment, cross docking & flex.
(3) Total US$ sum of marketplace transactions paid for using Mercado Pago, excluding shipping and financing fees.
Industry Multiples Remain Discounted from Recent
Maximums, Despite a Slight Recovery Post the Rate Hike Cycle
EV / NTM Revenue
12.8x 59.2%
Premium
11.2x
7.1x
5.9%
Premium
5.6x
4.5%
4.9x Premium
4.6x
45.6% 4.4x
14.2%
Premium
3.4x 3.5x Premium
2.9x 2.8x
2.7x
1.8x 1.9x
1.7x
1 2 3 4 5
Marketplace Payments
$1,063.0 $1,800.1 97.1% / 164.5% 44.4% 34.5% 11.2% 6.3% 17 76% 24%
$16.5 $52.9 33.9% / 108.3% (46.7%) (6.5%) (24.2%) 38.1% 25 64% 32% 4%
$12.7 $20.0 69.6% / 109.8% (23.6%) (12.0%) (14.1%) 50.2% 12 75% 25%
$29.5 $90.7 56.5% / 173.6% (32.5%) 15.5% (17.0%) 36.0% 33 55% 45%
$12.3 $36.7 35.0% / 104.1% (53.8%) (41.8%) (18.8%) 96.3% 15 67% 20% 13%
$0.6 $1.7 97.9% / 295.0% 64.5% 36.0% 13.2% 0.6% 18 83% 17%
$51.5 $110.5 97.1% / 208.3% 23.9% 41.4% 8.5% 0.7% 30 50% 47% 3%
$4.2 $13.1 50.1% / 154.3% (45.3%) 13.5% (32.3%) 33.9% 11 36% 18% 45%
$10.7 $26.8 56.0% / 140.1% (12.3%) 23.7% (1.2%) 46.2% 17 47% 35% 18%
$21.8 $63.3 36.8% / 106.9% (45.9%) (9.4%) (15.7%) 119.0% 16 69% 31%
____________________
19 Source: Factset as of January February 1st, 2024.
(1) Calculated as: (Target Price / Current Price) – 1.
(2) Instacart’s IPO was dated September 19th, 2023.
Comparable Companies’ Benchmark
Integrated Meal-Kit
0 0 0 0 0 8,304
9% 17%
43% 41% 45%
222,082 6,738 19,646 11,886 8,961 0
100% 100%
Segments 55%
85,410
16% 0 0
91% 0 83%
0 0
Marketplace Consolidated(7)
(3)
Take Rate (%) 15.0%(4)
18.3% 17.7% 21.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
(4)
Unit Economics Value per Order ($) n.a. 31 n.a. 300 n.a. 69
(5)
ARPU ($) n.a. 142 173 997 540 440 1,138
(6)
CAC ($) n.a. 59 331 n.a. 48,070 1,267
____________________
Source: Factset as of February 1st 2024 and Company filings. Note: Figures in US$mm, unless otherwise stated.
(4) Value per order based on Q2 2023 LTM.
(1) Active users as of Q2 2023.
(5) ARPU = Marketplace Revenue / Marketplace Users. All ARPU data based on Q2 2023 LTM;.
(2) Others include Fintech (for MercadoLibre), Physical stores, Third party services, Subscriptions and Advertising services
(6) CAC = Sales & Marketing / Change of users in a year, All CAC based on Q2 2023 LTM excluding Coupang for which
20 (for Amazon).
figures are as of FY 2022;.
(3) Take Rate = Marketplace Revenue / GMV. All take rate data based on Q2 2023 LTM; For those players noted as “n.a.”
(7) Consolidated assumes that Total Payment On-Marketplace revenue represent the same percentage of Fintech
the company is considered to be principal regarding Revenue recognition. Amazon take rate refers to revenue from
Revenue as TPV On-Marketplace of TPV.
third party seller services, which includes referral fees and additional services, divided by GMV.
Comparable Companies’ Benchmark (Cont’d)
On Demand
Market Cap 137,321 39,781 11,728 6,326 7,075 5,425 14,755 3,309
(1)
Users (mm) 137.0 32.0 34.9 n.a. n.a. 1.0 17.5 87.0
Size
Orders (mm/year) 8,463.0 1,950.0 n.a. 2,791.5 263.2 20.0 661.6 925.0
Revenues LTM 35,003 7,687 1,993 10,397 2,900 3,326 1,058 5,813
0 0 0 On
OnDemand
Demand 0 Software
Software//Services
819
Services Others(2)(2) 0
Others 248 248
Business Mix
22,494 7,030 0 787 2,894 0 0 2,585
12% 9% 9% 6%
8,477 0 0 4,165
45% 0 3,005 0 3,22944%
Geography 24% 100% 100% 100%
46% 56%
64%
4,032 91%
0 1,433 4,082 0 94%
0 1,058 0
Rev. Growth '23E 16.4% 30.4% 61.9% 16.4% 19.3% 11.1% 35.7% (6.0)%
(YoY) '24E 15.3% 17.6% 21.0% 12.4% 7.0% 10.0% 42.6% 3.8%
Take Rate (%)(3) 28.0% 12.7% 8.7% 21.3% 9.9% n.a. 17.3% 18.9%
(4)
Unit Economics Value per Order ($) 15 31 n.a. n.a. 112 144 6 32
(5)
ARPU ($) 255 240 51 n.a. n.a. 2,993 41 64
CAC ($)(6) 297 240 104 n.a. n.a. 920 89 n.a.
____________________
Source: Company flings and Factset as of February 1 st 2024. Note: Figures in US$mm, unless otherwise stated. All figures as (4) Value per order based on Q2 2023 LTM;
of Q2 2023 unless otherwise stated. (5) ARPU = Marketplace Revenue / Marketplace Users. All ARPU data based on Q2 2023 LTM;
(1) Active users as of Q2 2023 excluding Doordash for which figures are as of Q4 2022. (6) CAC = Sales & Marketing / Change of users in a year, All CAC based on Q2 2023 LTM except for Doordash for which
21 (2) Others include Hyperpure & Others (for Zomato) and Ancillary (for Just Eat). figures are as of FY 2022.
(3) Take Rate = Marketplace Revenue / GMV. All take rate data based on Q2 2023 LTM; For those players noted as “n.a.”
the company is considered to be principal regarding Revenue recognition;.
Margins Evolution
Companies’ order growth has slowed down as competition has intensified, leading to an evolution in take rates to adapt to market dynamics
28% 16%
16%
15%
15%
13% 13%
15% Avg: 2.4% 13%
14% 11%
13% 10%
8% 8%
6%
5%
3%
0%
(2%)
Dec-21
Dec-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Mar-21
Mar-22
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Jun-22
Dec-21
Dec-22
Jun-21
Jun-23
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
(1)
____________________
22 Source: Company fillings and Factset as of February 1 st, 2024.
(1) Assumes a 50/50 split in total orders, GMV, and revenues for latest half-year results, due to lack of availability of quarterly information.
Margins Evolution (Cont’d)
Companies’ higher take rates and strategic initiatives have elevated AOVs and led to enhanced EBITDA margins
Avg: 11.2%
Avg; (15.1%)
26%
20%
3%
16%
12%
11% 2%
11%
0% 1%
(0%) 0%
(0%) (0%)
(1%)
(4%)
(8%)
(14%)
(15%) (2%)
Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
Mar-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-23
(1)
____________________
23 Source: Company fillings, PYMNTS TV, and Factset as of February 1 st, 2024.
(1) Assumes a 50/50 split in total orders and GMV for latest half-year results, due to lack of availability of quarterly information.
Trading Multiples ’24E
Benchmarking peer’s trading multiples indicates investors warrant a premium to On Demand players, in terms of EV/revenues
EV / Revenues ’24E
0.8x 23% 13% 13% 4% 6% 8% 43% 44% 20% 8% 17% 14% 19% 5%
30x 52% 47% 25% 31% 28% 60% 75% 44% 49% 76% 40% 41% 32% 47%
(1)
Integrated Meal-Kit On Demand Gross Profit Growth ’23E-’24E Gross Profit Margin ’24E
____________________
24 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) MercadoLibre’s EV/Revenues and EV/Revenues/Growth are adjusted by deducting the relative valuation of the Fintech business estimated based on an EV/TPV ‘24E of 0.2x and $213.3bn TPV ‘24E.
EV / Revenues ’24E vs Growth + Gross Margin ’24E
A regression analysis of comparable companies demonstrates a positive correlation between growth and profitability and their respective EV/Revenue
multiples. As order growth has stabilized from ’22 levels, gross profit margins have risen (especially for On Demand players) as a result of an increased
focus on cost efficiencies and larger shopping baskets, driving multiple re-ratings.
12x
Jan-22
10x
8x
EV / Revenues '24E
Dec-23
Jan-24
6x Feb-24
Aug-23
Oct-23
Sep-23
4x
Jan-23
(1)
2x
0x
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
____________________
25 Source: Factset as of February 1st, 2024.
(1) MercadoLibre’s EV/Revenues and EV/Revenues/Growth are adjusted by deducting the relative valuation of the Fintech business estimated based on an EV/TPV ‘24E of 0.2x and $213.3bn TPV ‘24E.
Wonder Group’s Acquisition of Blue Apron
Share Price Performance (%)
BA announced considering going
private amid fall in revenue BA announced a partnership BA went live WG announced
BA reported a net
with Amazon to run on on Amazon the acquisition
loss of $109.7mm
Alexa smart speakers of BA
BA sold its
operational Share price before
infrastructure to announcement:
$189.51 FreshRealm(3) $5.50
$86.16
BA laid-off 10% of
Covid-19 surge
corporate workforce
$87.47
$13
Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Blue Apron DoorDash
▪ Mealtime super app platform operates a ▪ A leading prepared and ready to eat(2), and meal kit
collection of vertically-integrated and delivery- food delivery platform, through on-demand and
first restaurants, focused on high/mid-end dishes, with operations subscription services selection only in the US
mainly in New York and New Jersey
▪ In Jun-17 the company completed its IPO in Nasdaq at a
▪ Founded in 2018 by Marc Lore(1) currently has +1,000 employees valuation of US$1.9bn
▪ Innovative platform that serves hybrid approach of dine-in and on-
demand delivery, and more recently expanding into providing B2B ▪ Prior to the acquisition the company:
software and services for large events
▪ Transferred its stock exchange listing from NYSE to Nasdaq
▪ The company has managed to close exclusivity with leading
restaurants and chefs that help strengthen the brand ▪ Reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.6mm, a $13.3mm
improvement year-over-year
▪ In Nov-23 the company received a $100mm investment from
Nestle at a $3.8bn valuation, reaching a total $950mm funds raised ▪ Reported a debt free structure, after $50mm transaction (3)
26
____________________ ready-to-eat category with the launch Serial entrepreneur (Wizard, (2) Of Prepared & Ready meals, available to order now for weekly
Source: Company website, Research Reports and Marketplace Pulse. Mojo, Jet.com, Quidsi Inc), Owner of Minnesota Timberwolves and shipments starting January 2024.
(1) In December 2023, Blue Apron announced the expansions into the Minnesota Lynx, former President & CEO of Walmart. (3) Transaction to pivot into asset-light model with FreshRealm.
Wonder Group’s Acquisition of Blue Apron (Cont’d.)
Key Highlights Revenue
Figures in US$mm
Announcement: September 2023 CAGR: (9.9%)
Key Dates: Tender: November 2023
$881.19
Closing: November 2023
BA Total
$696mm as of November 13th, 2023
Funding:
▪ With this acquisition, Hello Fresh targeted tapping into new ▪ Founded in 2013, Factor is a US-based software e-Commerce
customer segments that Factor dominated, increasing their company providing healthy, fully-prepared meals with
capacity in the US market approximately 60%(1) market share in the US RTE industry
▪ Acquisition was projected to drive supply chain and operational ▪ The company has a weekly rotating menu of breakfast, lunch, and
synergies due to the complimentary nature in product offerings dinner options are hand-crafted by gourmet chefs
▪ Recent Developments: ▪ Every meal is free of refined sugars, gluten, soy, hormones,
antibiotics, and GMOs for healthy, clean eating
Since the deal, HelloFresh has scaled its presence in the ready-to-eat
Factor Meals
(RTE) market through the integration and rollout of Factor, increasing
production capacity by 5x in 2021 and subsequently by 2x in North
America in 2022(1)
____________________
28 Source: Companies websites, Businesswire, Mergermarket.
(1) Per HelloFresh’s management estimates, as of the March 2023 Capital Markets Day presentation.