Liu 2017
Liu 2017
6KRUWWHUP7UDYHO7LPH3UHGLFWLRQE\'HHS/HDUQLQJ
$&RPSDULVRQRI'LIIHUHQW/670'110RGHOV
<DQJGRQJ/LX<L]KH:DQJ;LDRJXDQJ<DQJ /LQDQ=KDQJ
7KH.H\/DERUDWRU\RI5RDGDQG7UDIILF(QJLQHHULQJ0LQLVWU\RI(GXFDWLRQ7RQJML8QLYHUVLW\
6KDQJKDL&KLQD
(PDLO^OLX\GZDQJ\L]KH\DQJ[J`#WRQJMLHGXFQ
QDWKDQB]KDQJOQ#TTFRP
$EVWUDFW²3UHGLFWLQJ VKRUWWHUP WUDYHO WLPH ZLWK FRQVLGHUDEOH RIZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVZKLFKUHVXOWVLQQRQVWDWLRQDU\SURSHUWLHV
DFFXUDF\DQGUHOLDELOLW\LVFULWLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWIRUDGYDQFHGWUDIILF DQGEULQJVGLIILFXOWLHVWRWKHSUHGLFWLRQ
PDQDJHPHQW DQG URXWH SODQQLQJ LQ ,QWHOOLJHQW 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
6\VWHPV ,76 6KRUWWHUP WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ XVHV UHDO WUDYHO 7KH VKRUWWHUP WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ UHIHUV WR SUHGLFWLQJ
WLPHYDOXHVZLWKLQDVOLGLQJWLPHZLQGRZWRSUHGLFWWUDYHOWLPHRQH WUDYHOWLPHRIDFHUWDLQURDGVHFWLRQRUDURXWHIRUDVKRUWSHULRG
RU VHYHUDO WLPH VWHS V LQ IXWXUH +RZHYHU WKH QRQVWDWLRQDU\ RIWLPHIURPVHYHUDOPLQXWHVWRKRXUV&RQVLGHUDWLPHVHULHVRI
SURSHUWLHVDQGDEUXSWFKDQJHVRIWUDYHOWLPHVHULHVPDNHFKDOOHQJHV WUDYHO WLPH ; ^[ [ [7 ` VKRUWWHUP SUHGLFWLRQ DLPV WR
LQREWDLQLQJDFFXUDWHDQGUHOLDEOHSUHGLFWLRQV5HFHQWDFKLHYHPHQWV
RIGHHSOHDUQLQJDSSURDFKHVLQFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGUHJUHVVLRQVKHGD SUHGLFW ; P ^[7 [7 P ` LQ QH[W WLPH VWHS V
OLJKWRQLQQRYDWLRQVRIWLPHVHULHVSUHGLFWLRQ7KLVVWXG\HVWDEOLVKHV ^7 7 P` ZKLOH P t +HUH P UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHQXPEHU
D VHULHV RI ORQJ VKRUWWHUP PHPRU\ QHXUDO QHWZRUNV ZLWK GHHS
RI WLPH VWHSV WR SUHGLFW LV JHQHUDOO\ DGGUHVVHG DV IRUHFDVWLQJ
QHXUDO OD\HUV /670'11 XVLQJ VHWWLQJV RI K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV
DQGLQYHVWLJDWHVWKHLUSHUIRUPDQFHRQDGD\WUDYHOWLPHGDWDVHW KRUL]RQ RU SUHGLFWLRQ KRUL]RQ 3UHGLFWLRQ KRUL]RQ FDQ FRQWDLQ
IURP &DOWUDQV 3HUIRUPDQFH 0HDVXUHPHQW 6\VWHP 3H06 7KHQ RQH WLPH VWHS RU VHYHUDO WLPH VWHS RI SUHGLFWLRQ 2QHVWHS
FRPSHWLWLYH/670'11PRGHOVDUHWHVWHGDORQJZLWKOLQHDUPRGHOV SUHGLFWLRQLVPRVWO\DGDSWHGLQVKRUWWHUPWLPHVHULHVSUHGLFWLRQ
VXFKDVOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQ5LGJHDQG/DVVRUHJUHVVLRQ$5,0$DQG EHFDXVH WKH DFFXUDF\ LV UHODWLYHO\ PRUH SRVVLEOH WR EH
'11 PRGHOV XQGHU VHWV RI VOLGLQJ ZLQGRZV DQG SUHGLFWLQJ JXDUDQWHHG ,Q JHQHUDO WKH PRUH WLPH VWHSV IRU SUHGLFWLRQ WKH
KRUL]RQV YLD WKH VDPH GDWDVHW 7KH UHVXOWV GHPRQVWUDWH WKH PRUHSRVVLEOHWKHDFFXUDF\WRGHFUHDVH)XOOSDUWRUDVXESDUWRI
DGYDQWDJH RI /670'11 PRGHOV ZKLOH VKRZLQJ GLIIHUHQW WUDYHOWLPH VHULHV ; LV XVHG WR GR SUHGLFWLRQ 2QOLQH RU UHDO
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVHGHHSOHDUQLQJPRGHOVZLWKGLIIHUHQWVHWWLQJV WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ FDQ WKHQ EH DFKLHYHG ZKHQ D VOLGLQJ WLPH
RI K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV SURYLGLQJ LQVLJKWV IRU RSWLPL]LQJ WKH
ZLQGRZ RI D FHUWDLQ OHQJWK PRYHV DORQJ WKH WLPH D[LV DQG
VWUXFWXUHV
SURFHVVHV D VXESDUW RU D VHFWLRQ RI D WLPH VHULHV DW HDFK WLPH
.H\ZRUGV²SUHGLFWLRQWUDYHOWLPHGHHSOHDUQLQJORQJVKRUWWHUP VWHSV7KHVKRUWWHUPWUDYHOWLPHSUHGLFWLRQLQWKLVSDSHULVUHDO
PHPRU\QHXUDOQHWZRUNV /670 GHHSQHXUDOQHWZRUNV '11 WLPH
7RQRZDQDPRXQWRIGLIIHUHQWNLQGVRIDSSRDFKHVKDYHEHHQ
, ,1752'8&7,21 VWXGLHG DQG DSSOLHG WR VKRUWWHUP WUDIILF IORZ SDUDPHWHUV
7KH VKRUWWHUP SUHGLFWLRQ RI WUDIILF IORZ SDUDPHWHUV SUHGLFLRQ 7KHVH PHWKRGV FDQ JHQHUDOO\ EH VHSHUDWHG LQWR WZR
LQFOXGLQJ IORZV VSHHGV GHQVLWLHV DQG WUDYHO WLPH FRPSRVH DQ JURXSV VWDWLFWLFDOPHWKRGVDQG PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJPHWKRGV
LPSRUWDQW PDMRU SDUW LQ GHYHORSPHQW DQG DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ,QVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVDXWRUHJUHVVLYHLQWHJUDWHGPRYLQJDYHUDJH
,QWHOOLJHQW7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ6\VWHPV ,76 IRUPLQJWKHIRXQGDWLRQ $5,0$ PRGHOLV PRVWO\FRPPRQXVHGIRUGRLQJWUDIILFIORZ
RI $GYDQFHG 7UDIILF 0DQDJHPHQW 6\VWHPV $706 DQG SDUDPHWHUV SUHGLFWLRQ >@ DQG >@ XVHG $5,0$ PRGHOV IRU
SURYLGLQJ HVVHQWLDO VXSSRUWV IRU WUDYHO JXLGDQFH DQG URXWH IUHHZD\ WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ 6HYHUDO YDULDQWV RI $5,0$
SODQQLQJRIWUDYHOHUV$WLPHVHULHVRIWUDIILFIORZVRUWUDYHOWLPH PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG VLQFH WKH ILUVW DWWHPSW RI XVLQJ
JHQHUDOO\ KDV VLPLODULW\ DPRQJ LWV LQQHU VXEVHULHV $5,0$ IRU IUHHZD\ WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ LQ >@ 5HI >@
FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHVDPHZHHNGD\V HJ0RQGD\LQODVWZHHN SURSRVHV+$5,0$PRGHOWRLQFRUHUDWHPRUHSDWWHUQVRIGDWD
WR0RQGD\LQQH[WZHHN ZHHNHQGVDQGVDPHTXDUWHUV'HVSLWH ZLWKLQSHDNKRXUDQGVSDWLDOLQIOXHQFHIURPWUDIILFHYHQWVZKHQ
WKH SHULRGLFLW\ DQG VHDVRQDOLW\ KRZHYHU WKHVH WLPH VHULHV DUH FRQVLGHULQJWKHSRVVLEOHIDLOXUHLQSUHGLFWLQJGXULQJSHDNKRXUV
DOZD\V EHLQJ DIIHFWHG E\ YDULRXV H[WHUQDO IDFWRUV LQFOXGLQJ DQGLQHIIHFWRIHYHQWVDVWKHWUDIILFIORZSDUDPHWHUVYDOXHVDUH
WUDIILFFUDVKHVIOXFWXDWLRQLQWUDIILFGHPDQGDQGDEUXSWFKDQJHV RQO\ WUHDWHG DV JHQHULF WLPH VHULHV ,Q >@ $ VSDWLDOWHPSRUDO
$5,0$ 67$5,0$ PRGHOLVDGGUHVVHGIRULQWHJUDWLQJVSDWLDO
DQGWHPSRUDOLQIRUPDWLRQWRSUHGLFWWUDIIFIORZ5HI>@SUHVHQWV DQDEVROXWHO\RSWLPDOHIIHFWRIPRGHOHVWDEOLVKPHQW+HQFHWKLV
DQ %D\HVLDQ QHWZRUN DSSURDFK IRU WUDIILF IORZ SUHGLFWLRQ $ SDSHULVDLPHGWRH[SORUHKRZWKH³DFFXUDWH´SHUIRUPDQFHFRXOG
%D\HVLDQG\QDPLFOLQHDUPRGHOLVSURSRVHGIRUG\QDPLFVKRUW FKDQJH LQ TXDQWLW\ ZLWK YDU\LQJ VHWWLQJV RI /670 QHXUDO
WHUP WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFLRQ LQ >@ ,Q >@ D ORFDO RQOLQH NHUQHO QHWZRUNVZLWKGHHSIXOO\FRQQHFWHGOD\HUV:HFDOOWKHVHPRGHOV
PHWKRG IRU 5LGJH UHJUHVVLRQ LV GHYHORSHG IRU SUHGLFWLQJ XUEDQ /670'11 GHHS OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV ,Q WKH PHDQWLPH ZH
WUDYHO WLPHV )RU PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGV WKH PRVW SRSXODU FRPSDUH WKHVH PRGHOV ZLWK FRPPRQO\ XVHG WLPH VHULHV
DUH DUWLILFLDO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV $11 DQG VXSSRUW YHFWRU UHJUHVVLRQSUHGLFWLRQPRGHOVDVZHOO
UHJUHVVLRQ 695 D UHJUHVVLRQ PHWKRGEDVHGRQVXSSRUWYHFWRU
6SHFLILFDOO\VSHDNLQJ
PDFKLQH 690 $695EDVHGWUDYHOWLPHSUHGLFWLRQPHWKRGLV
SURSRVHGLQ>@DQG$11EDVHGPHWKRGVFDQEHVHHQLQ>@DQG x ZH LQYHVWLJDWH VKRUWWHUP SUHGLFWLRQ UHVXOWV RI WUDYHO WLPH
>@ 6RPH DSSURDFKHV DOVR LQFRUSRUDWH VWDWLVWLFDO DQG PDFKLQH XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW /670'11 PRGHOV E\ DUUDQJLQJ DQG
OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGVDQGWUDIILFIORZWKHRULHVWRFRQGXFW PRGHOLQJ FRPELQLQJ LPSRUWDQW K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV LQFOXGLQJ WKH
DQGSUHGLFWLQJRIWUDYHOWLPHGDWD)RULQVWDQFH5HI>@XWLOL]H QXPEHU RI /670 FHOOV DQG OD\HUV DQG RI GHHS IXOO\
ERWWOHQHFNLGHQWLILFDWLRQDOJRULWKPIURPWUDIILFIORZWKHRULHVDQG FRQQHFWHGOD\HUV
LQFRUSRUDWH FOXVWHULQJ VWRFKDVWLF FRQJHVWLRQ PDSV RQOLQH x ZHVHOHFWFRPSHWLWLYH/670'11PRGHOVIURPDERYHDQG
FRQJHVWLRQVHDUFKLQJ PHWKRGVWRFRQGXFWSUHGLFWLRQRIIUHHZD\ WHVW WKHP DORQJ ZLWK OLQHDU PRGHOV DQG PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ
WUDYHOWLPHXVLQJERWKKLVWRULFDODQGUHDOWLPHGDWD PRGHOV VXFK DV OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ 5LGJH DQG /DVVR
2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG GHHS OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGV DV D EUDQFK RI UHJUHVVLRQ$5,0$DQG'11PRGHOVLQVHYHUDOH[SHULPHQW
PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJVWXGLHVKDYHUHFHQWO\GUDZQPDVVLYHDWWHQWLRQV JURXSVFRQWDLQLQJVHWVRIVOLGLQJZLQGRZVDQGSUHGLFWLQJ
IURPZRUOGZLGHUHVHDUFKHUVVHSDUDWHGLQYDULRXVILHOGVLQFHDELJ KRUL]RQV WR IXUWKHUO\ FKHFN WKH DFFXUDF\ RI ERWK GHHS
EUHDNWKURXJK IRU WUDLQLQJ GHHS QHXUDO QHWZRUNV '11 ZDV OHDUQLQJDQGZHOOXVHGSUHGLFWLRQPHWKRGV
SURSRVHGLQ >@7KHVH PHWKRGV IRUP DFHUWDLQ DPRXQW RI VWDWH 7KHRUJDQL]DWLRQRIWKLVSDSHULVDVIROORZV,Q6HFWLRQჟWKH
RIWKHDUW VROXWLRQV WR PDQ\ FODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG UHJUHVVLRQ VWUXFWXUHV RI /670'11 PRGHOV IRU VKRUWWHUP WUDYHO WLPH
SUREOHPVLQVHYHUDOGLIIHUHQWVXEMHFWVLQZKLFKUHFXUUHQWQHXUDO SUHGLFWLRQDUHLQWURGXFHGDORQJZLWK/670FHOOVDQGGHHSIXOO\
QHWZRUNV 511 DUH QRZ RIWHQ EHLQJ XVHG IRU PRGHOLQJ FRQQHFWHG OD\HUV 6HFWLRQ რ SUHVHQWV JURXSV RI H[SHULPHQWV
VHTXHQWLDOGDWDVXFKDVWLPHVHULHVGDWDDQGYLGHRRUDXGLRGDWD ZLWKWKHILUVWJURXSVRIH[SHULPHQWVIRUFRPSDULQJDQGVHOHFWLQJ
/RQJ VKRUWWHUP PHPRU\ /670 XQLWV FHOOV DQG JDWHG /670'11 PRGHOV DQG VHFRQG JURXSV RI H[SHULPHQWV IRU
UHFXUUHQWXQLWV *58 DUHQRZZLGHO\DGDSWHGDVDOWHUQDWLYHVRI WHVWLQJ /670'11 PRGHOV DQG EHQFKPDUN PHWKRGV LQ WKH
VLPSOHUHFXUUHQWXQLWVWRIRUPD ZKROHUHFXUUHQW QHXUDOQHWZRUN FRPELQDWLRQV RI VOLGLQJ ZLQGRZV DQG SUHGLFWLRQ KRUL]RQV
DQGWRPRGHORUOHDUQFRPSOLFDWHGLQIRUPDWLRQFRQWDLQHGZLWKLQ )LQDOO\6HFWLRQსPDNHVDFRQFOXVLRQDQGDQDO\]HVIXWXUHZRUN
VHTXHQWLDO GDWD $ QXPEHU RI VWXGLHV RQ WLPH VHULHV DQG RWKHU
VHTXHQWLDO GDWD WKDW DSSOLHG GHHS OHDUQLQJ DSSURDFKHV LQGLFDWHG ,, 7+(/670'1102'(/6
WKHDGYDQWDJHSURSHUW\RI/670QHXUDOQHWZRUNVDQGRWKHUGHHS
OHDUQLQJ PHWKRGV ,Q WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ UHVHDUFK DUHD WKH HDUO\ $ /RQJ6KRUWWHUP0HPRU\ /670 &HOOV
DWWHPSWRIXVLQJGHHSOHDUQLQJPHWKRGVLV>@ZKLFKSUHVHQWVD
GHHS EHOLHI QHWZRUNV '%1 PHWKRG WR SUHGLFW IUHHZD\ WUDIILF
$UWLILFLDO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV $11 FDQ JHQHUDOO\ EH GLYLGHG
IORZ5HI>@SURSRVHVDVWDFNHGDXWRHQFRGHU 6$( PRGHOIRU
LQWR WZR FDWHJRULHV LH IHHG IRUZDUG QHXUDO QHWZRUNV ))11
IUHHZD\WUDIILFIORZSUHGLFWLRQ,Q>@/670QHWZRUNVDUHXVHG
DQG UHFXUUHQW QHXUDO QHWZRUNV 511 D ))11 GRHV QRW KDYH
IRU WKH ILUVW WLPH IRU WUDIILF IORZ SDUDPHWHUV SUHGLFWLRQ DQG DUH
UHFXUUHQW RU ORRS FRQQHFWLRQV ZLWKLQ LWV FHOOV UDWKHU WKDQ 511
VXFFHVVLYHO\EHH[SHULPHQWHGLQVHYHUDOVWXGLHVVXFKDV>@>@
$QG))11DUHDSSOLHGHDUOLHUDQGZLGHULQVKRUWWHUPWLPHVHULHV
DQG>@UHVSHFWLYHO\SURSRVHVD'%1PRGHODQGD'11PRGHO
SUHGLFWLRQ WKDQ WKH ODWWHU EXW WKH UHVXOWV GLIIHU IURP GLIIHUHQW
IRUWUDIILFVSHHGDQGWUDIILFIORZSUHGLFWLRQ5HIGHYHORSVDQ
UHVHDUFK$))11WKDWLVXVXDOO\FDOOHGEDFNSURSDJDWLRQQHXUDO
HUURUIHHGEDFNUHFXUUHQWFRQYROXWLRQDOQHXUDOQHWZRUNV H5&11
QHWZRUN %311 FRQWDLQVRUKLGGHQOD\HUV,QRUGHUWRREWDLQ
VWUXFWXUH LQFRUSRUDWHV VSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO UHODWLRQVKLS WR
PRUHDFFXUDWHUHVXOWVIURP))11WKHOHQJWKRILQSXWGDWDVKRXOG
FRQGXFWWUDIILFVSHHGSUHGLFWLRQIRUULQJURDGVLQ%HLMLQJ&KLQD
EH H[SDQGHG DQG PRUH OD\HUV VKRXOG EH DGGHG WR LWVHOI %XW
'HVSLWH WKHVWXGLHVFLWHGDERYH XVLQJGHHSOHDUQLQJPHWKRGV ))11 LV VWRSSHG IURP H[SDQGLQJ WKH OHQJWK RI LQSXW OD\HU RU
IRUWUDIILFWLPHVHULHVSUHGLFWLRQWKHVHVWXGLHVGLGQRWJRGHHSHU DGGLQJ IDU PRUH KLGGHQ OD\HUV GXH WR WKH SUREOHP RI JUDGLHQW
LQWR VWXG\LQJ WKH RSWLPL]DWLRQ RI VWUXFWXUH GHVLJQ DQG H[SORVLRQ DQG JUDGLHQW YDQLVKLQJ XQWLO LW ZDV VROYHG ILUVWO\ E\
K\SHUSDUDPHWHUVHWWLQJVRIGHHSOHDUQLQJPRGHOVLQXVHIRUWUDIILF +LQWRQ LQ >@ 6LQFH WKHQ D ))11 FDQ EH WUDLQHG ZLWK ZLGHU
GDWD ,W LV LPSRUWDQW DQG HVVHQWLDO EHFDXVH WKH GHVLJQV RI GHHS OHQJWKRILQSXWOD\HUVDQGGHHSHUKLGGHQOD\HUV RUPRUHIURP
OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV DUH YDULDEOH IRU OHDUQLQJ GLIIHUHQW W\SH RI GDWD GR]HQV WR KXQGUHGV FDQ EH LPSOHPHQWHG ZKLFK IRUPV GHHS
7KHGHVLJQLVPRUHIOH[LEOHZKHQFRPSDUHGWRWUDGLWLRQDOO\ZHOO QHXUDO QHWZRUNV '11 $QG QRZ D '11 ZLWK IXOO\ FRQQHFWHG
XVHGPRGHOVDQGWKHUHIRUHLWFDQDOVREHPRUHGLIILFXOWWRDFKLHYH OD\HUV FDQ EH WUDLQHG WR JHW PRUH DFFXUDWH UHVXOWV LQ VKRUWWHUP
2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
WLPH VHULHV SUHGLFWLRQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH DUFKLWHFWXUH RI ZKHUH : LV ZHLJKW PDWULFHV HJ :K LV LQSXWKLGGHQ ZHLJKW
511 LV QDWXUDOO\ VXLWDEOH IRU PRGHOLQJ VHTXHQFH GDWD EHFDXVH PDWUL[ E LV ELDV YHFWRUV + LV KLGGHQ OD\HU IXQFWLRQ DQG LV
WKHUHFXUUHQWFRQQHFWLRQVZLWKLQHDFKQHXUDOFHOOVHQDEOHWKHFHOOV
WRPDSWKHLQSXWRIVHTXHQWLDOGDWDDQGRXWSXWIURPHDFKRIWKHP LWHUDWHGE\WKHIROORZLQJIXQFWLRQ
$QG511ZDVDOVRIDFHGZLWKWKHSUREOHPRIJUDGLHQWYDQLVKLQJ IW V : I >KW [W @ E I
DORQJ ZLWK WKH 511 VHTXHQFH 7KHQ ORQJ VKRUWWHUP PHPRU\
/670 FHOO ZDV GHYHORSHG WR VROYH WKH JUDGLHQW YDQLVKLQJ
LW V :L >KW [W @ EL
SUREOHP >@ ZKLFK WKHQ UHSODFHG VLPSOHUHFXUUHQWFHOOV DQG DUH
ZLGHO\ XVHG DV D YDULDQW RI VLPSOH UHFXUUHQW FHOOV LQ 511
VWUXFWXUHIRUQRZ &W WDQK :& >KW [W @ E&
RW V :R >KW [W @ ER
KW RW WDQK &W
% 7KH/670'11PRGHOVIRUSUHGLFWLRQ
E /670FHOOVXVLQJWDQKDFWLYDWLRQIXQFWLRQ
$JDLQWKHKLVWRULFDOWUDYHOWLPHVHULHVLQFXUUHQWWLPHVWHS 7
LV ; ^[ [ [7 ` WKHSUREOHPLVWRSUHGLFW WUDYHOWLPH [7 P
)LJ 7KHDUFKLWHFWXUHVRIVLPSOHUHFXUUHQWFHOOVDQG/670FHOOV ZKLOH P t LQGLFDWLQJHLWKHUSUHGLFWYDOXHLQQH[WWLPHVWHSRU
LQ VHYHUDO WLPH VWHSV DKHDG $QG WKH LQSXW S GDWD
7KH PDLQ LPSURYHPHQW RI /670 FHOOV DJDLQVW VLPSOH
UHFXUUHQWFHOOVLVWKHIRUJHWJDWHVDGGHG$V)LJVKRZVDVLPSOH ; LQSXW ^[7 N [7 ` KDV WRWDO OHQJWK RI N d N 7 ZKLFK
UHFXUUHQW FHOO RQO\ FRQWDLQV DQ DFWLYDWLQJ IXQFWLRQ KHUH WKH LVWKHOHQJWKRIVOLGLQJZLQGRZIRUSUHGLFWLRQ
GHIDXOW LV WDQK DVLGH IURP LQSXW DQG RXWSXW ZKLOH D /670 /LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQOD\HU
FHOO KDV D IRUJHW JDWH DQG XSGDWH JDWH PRUH 7KH IRUJHW JDWH
DOORZVD/670FHOOWRUHPRYHRUDGGQHHGHGLQIRUPDWLRQWRWKH
FHOOVWDWH yyy
yyy
yy
yyyy
yy
yy
/HW WKH LQSXW WUDYHOWLPH VHULHV LQ D VOLGLQJ ZLQGRZ EH
'11OD\HUV
yyy
; ^[ [ [7 ` WKH KLGGHQ YHFWRU VHTXHQFH yyy
yyy
yyy
yyyy
+ ^K K K7 ` LV FDOFXODWHG WKHQ DQG DQ RXWSXW VHTXHQFH yyy
\W :\ KW E\ 'DWDLSXW
)LJ 7KHDUFKLWHFWXUHVRID/670'11PRGHO
2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
$VLOOXVWUDWHGLQ)LJWKHSURSRVHG/670'11 PRGHOVDUH VWDWLVWLFDO PRGHOV VXFK DV OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ 5LGJH UHJUHVVLRQ
FRPSRVHGRI /DVVRUHJUHVVLRQDQG$5,0$
RQH RUVWDFNHG /670OD\HUV VKRZQLQJUHHQEORFNV WKH
QXPEHU RI WKH OD\HUV FDQ EH WR PDQ\ /670 OD\HUV DUH % (YDOXDWLRQ0HWULFV
VWDFNHGDVDQH[DPSOHLQ)LJ 0HDQ DEVROXWH SHUFHQWDJH HUURU 0$3( DQG URRW PHDQ
GHHSIXOO\FRQQHFWHGQHXUDOOD\HUV '11OD\HUVVKRZQE\ VTXDUHHUURU 506( DUHHPSOR\HGDVHYDOXDWLRQPHWULFVIRURXU
JUD\FLUFOHXQLWV WKHQXPEHURIWKHOD\HUVFDQEHWRPDQ\ WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ PRGHOV [L GHQRWHV WKH DFWXDO WUDYHO WLPH
'11OD\HUVDUHH[HPSOLILHGLQ)LJDQG
DGHHSQHXUDOOD\HUZLWKQHXUDOXQLWZLWKOLQHDUDFWLYDWLRQ DQG [Ö L LVWKHSUHGLFWLRQYDOXHV
VKRZQE\EOXHFLUFOHXQLW 7KHRXWSXWRQO\KDVYDOXHRIWUDYHO
Q [L [ÖL
WLPH VR RQO\ XQLW H[LWV LQ WKLV OD\HU DQG WKLV OD\HU LV QRW
FRQVLGHUHGDVWKH'11OD\HUVSDUWPHQWLRQHGDERYH
0$3( ¦
Q L [L
'DWD DUH GLUHFWO\ LQSXW WR WKH ILUVW /670 OD\HU 7KH RUDQJH
FRORU DUURZV VKRZQ XQGHU WKH ERWWRP /670 OD\HU RQO\ Q
¦ [L [ÖL
506(
UHSUHVHQW ZKHUH WR LQSXW WKH GDWD 7KH RXWSXWV IURP D /670 Q L
OD\HU FDQQRW EH XVHG GLUHFWO\ DV SUHGLFWLRQ UHVXOWV EHFDXVH LQ
HDFKWLPHVWHS/670\LHOGVRXWSXWZLWKWKHVDPHOHQJWKRILQSXW & +\SHUSDUDPHWHU6HWWLQJVIRU/670'110RGHOV
GDWD HJ KDYH D GLPHQVLRQ RI WLPHVWHSV 灤 +HQFH 2QH RU
,QWKLVH[SHULPHQWVZHLQWHQGHGWRFUHDWHDKLJKO\FKDOOHQJLQJ
VHYHUDO'11OD\HUVVKRXOGEHDGGHGDERYHWKH/670OD\HUIRU
SUHGLFWLRQ PLVVLRQ IRU GHHS OHDUQLQJ PRGHOV $IWHU VHYHUDO
WUDQVIHUULQJRXWSXWGLPHQVLRQ6RKRZPDQ\'11OD\HUVVKRXOG
SUHOLPLQDU\ H[SHULPHQWV ZHVHW WKH LQSXWGDWDOHQJWKRQO\ EH
EH DGGHG WR REWDLQ EHVW SUHGLFWLRQV EHFRPHV D SUREOHP WR EH
WLPHVWHSV îPLQV PLQV DQGWKHWDVNLVWRSUHGLFWWUDYHO
VWXG\7KHVL]HRIHDFKVWDFNHG/670OD\HUFDQEHYDULRXVDQG
WLPH DWWLPHVWHSVDKHDG PLQVDKHDG )URPVHFWLRQZH
XQLTXH 6HFRQG WKH VL]H RI HDFK '11 OD\HUV VKRXOG EHWWHU EH
FDQ ILQG WKDW WKHUH DUH WKUHH LPSRUWDQW K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV IRU
HTXDO EXW FDQ DOVR EH GHVLJQ ZLWK YDULRXV YDOXHV DQG XQHTXDO
/670'11PRGHOV WKHQXPEHURI/670XQLWVDGGUHVVHGDV
ZLWKHDFKRWKHU
³OHQB/670´ KHUHIRUVLPSOLILFDWLRQZHPDNHHTXDOVL]HRIHDFK
7KH REMHFWLYH IXQFWLRQ LV VHW DV PHDQ VTXDUH HUURU 06( DV
/670OD\HUVIRUVWDFNLQJ ZHVHWYDOXHVLQFUHDVLQJZLWKVDPH
(T ZKHUH [L GHQRWHVWKHDFWXDOWUDYHOWLPHLQWUDLQLQJGDWD LQWHUYDO QXPEHU RI /670 OD\HUV QB/670 ZH FKRVH RQO\
DQG [Ö L LV WKH SUHGLFWLRQ YDOXHV :H XVH DGDSWLYH VXEJUDGLHQW WZR YDOXHV ±DQG DQG QXPEHURI '11 OD\HUV QB'11
PHWKRGV GHYHORSHG LQ >@ WR WUDLQ WKH SURSRVHG PRGHOV 7KH WZR RSWLRQV ± DQG ± DUH SURYLGHG 7KH VXPPDU\ RI
HQWLUH QHWZRUN FDQ EH HVWDEOLVKHG E\ XVLQJ 7HQVRUIORZ D K\SHUSDUDPHWHUVHWWLQJVLVLQ7$%/(პ
UHFHQWO\GHYHORSHGGHHSOHDUQLQJIUDPHZRUNLQ3\WKRQ ,QIDFWYDULRXVFKRLFHVFDQEHPDGHWRZDUGVWKHVHOHFWLRQRI
Q
¦ WKHVHSDUDPHWHUVDQGH[WUHPHO\DZLGHUDQJHRIQXPEHUVFDQEH
06( [L [ÖL
Q L XVHG %XW WR OHYHUDJH WKH WUDLQLQJ FRPSOH[LW\ DQG JUDLQHG
DFFXUDF\ ZH RQO\ XVHG WKHVH YDOXHV IRU H[SHULPHQWV 1RWH WKDW
,,, (;3(5,0(176 HDFK QXPEHU FKRVHQ IRU OHQB/670 FDQ H[DFWO\ EH DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKLQWHJHUKRXUVHJîPLQV KRXUVDQGîPLQV
$ 'DWDVHW KRXUV %HVLGHV WKH OHDUQLQJ UDWH QXPEHU RI HSRFKHV DQG
EDWFKVL]HIRUHDFKWLPHVWUDLQLQJRQHVLQJOHPRGHODUHHTXDODQG
7KH GDWD IRU WKLV VWXG\ DUH REWDLQHG IURP &DOWUDQV
DUHUHVSHFWLYHO\VHWWREHDQGEDVHGRQH[SHULHQFH
3HUIRUPDQFH0HDVXUHPHQW6\VWHP 3H06 DQRQOLQHV\VWHPWKDW
IURPVHYHUDOSUHOLPLQDU\H[SHULPHQWV
SURYLGHVWUDIILFGDWDFROOHFWHGRYHUORRSGHWHFWRUVORFDWHG
LQ&DOLIRUQLDWKH86:HFROOHFWHGWUDYHOWLPHGDWDRQ&RUULGRU
$ODPHGD, IUHHZD\VHFWLRQ7KHGDWDGXUDWLRQLVGD\V 7$%/(, +<3(53$5$0(7(56(77,1*6
IURP 6HS WK WR 'HF WK 7UDYHO WLPH 6OLGLQJZLQGRZOHQJWK PLQV WLPHVWHSV
YDOXHVDUHDJJUHJDWHGSHUPLQVVRWKHUHDUHGDWDSRLQWVIRU 3UHGLFWLRQKRUL]RQ PLQV WLPHVWHSV
RQH GD\V DQG SRLQWV LQ WRWDO 7KH GDWD ZHUH VSOLW LQWR 1XPEHURI/670XQLWV OHQB/670 >@
WUDLQLQJ GD\V YDOLGDWLQJ GD\V LQRUGHUWRWUDLQ 1XPEHURI/670OD\HUV QB/670 >@
1XPEHURI'11OD\HUV QB'11 >@
WKH /670'11 PRGHOV DQG WHVWLQJ GD\V GDWD IRU
LQYHVWLJDWHWKHSUHGLFWLRQDELOLW\RIWKHPRGHOVVLQFHWHVWLQJGDWD
DUH QHYHU VHHQ E\ WKH PRGHOV GXULQJ WUDLQLQJ $V IRU XVLQJ LQGLYLGXDO/670'11PRGHOVZLWKGLIIHUHQWFRPELQDWLRQ
VWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVWKHUHLVQRQHHGRIYDOLGDWLQJGDWDVRWKHGDWD RIWKHK\SHUSDUDPHWHUVKDYHEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGDQGHDFKPRGHO
ZHUHVSOLWLQWRWUDLQLQJ DQGWHVWLQJ GDWDIRUWUDLQLQJ DUHWUDLQHGWLPHVVHSDUDWHO\DQGWHVWHGWLPHVVHSDUDWHO\
2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
D 0$3( RQWHVWGDWD E\OHQB/670 E 0$3( RQWHVWGDWD E\VWUXFWXUHV
F 506(RQWHVWGDWD E\OHQB/670 G 506(RQWHVWGDWD E\VWUXFWXUHV
)LJ (YDOXDWLRQPHWULFVRISUHGLFWLRQRQWHVWGDWD JURXSVRIH[SHULPHQWV
DV ZHOO 6R JURXSV RI H[SHULPHQWV WRWDOO\ WLPHV RI )LJ LQGLFDWHV WKDW EHWWHU UHVXOWV FDQQRW DOZD\V EH REWDLQHG
H[SHULPHQWV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG IRU FRPSDULQJ SUHGLFWLRQ ZKHQPDNLQJGHHSHURUZLGHUQHXUDOQHWZRUNV)RU0$3(LWLV
UHVXOWV(DFKH[SHULPHQWFRQWDLQVDWUDLQLQJDQGDWHVWLQJSKDVH FOHDU IURP )LJ D WKDW ZKHQ OHQB/670 LV FRPELQDWLRQ
/670 '11 LV EHWWHU WKDQ /670 '11 EXW ZKHQ
7KHWUDLQLQJSURFHVVIRUHDFKJURXSLVNHSWWKHVDPH7KHUHDVRQ
OHQB/670LQFUHDVHVWRDQGSHUIRUPDQFHIURPWKH
IRU FRQGXFWLQJ PXOWLSOH WLPH H[SHULPHQWV LV WKDW WKH SDUDPHWHUV
ODWWHU EHFRPHV EHWWHU DV VHHQ IURP WKH PHGLDQ OHYHOV 0RUH
JHWIURPDWUDLQHGGHHSOHDUQLQJPRGHOFDQEHGLIIHUHQWHDFKWLPH
LQWHUHVWLQJO\ ZKHQ OHQB/670 LV WKH ELJJHVW /670
WKXVWKHSUHGLFWLRQUHVXOWVYDU\
'11LVUHODWLYHO\EHWWHUWKDQ/670'11 RU'11
:H LOOXVWUDWHG WKH WHVWLQJ SKDVHV¶ 0$3(V DQG 506(V IRU DVWKHER[RIGLVWULEXWLRQLVQDUURZHU,QRYHUDOOVFRSH/670
JURXSV LQ )LJ 7KH OHJHQG ³/670B'11´ GHQRWHV WKDW WKH '11ZLWKOHQB/670DQG/670'11ZLWK
QXPEHURI/670OD\HUV QB/670 HTXDOWRDQGWKHQXPEHURI OHQB/670 JHW PRUH FHQWUDOL]HG ORZ 0$3(V DQG KHQFH DUH WKH
'11 OD\HUV QB'11 DQG VR IRUWK )RU FRQYHQLHQFH ZH XVH UHODWLYHO\EHVWWZRPRGHOVZLWKWKHPHDVXUHPHQWRI0$3($OVR
VW\OH/670'11WRGHVFULEHWKHPRGHOVWUXFWXUHV IURP )LJ E D SKHQRPHQRQ VKRXOG DOVR EH SDLG DWWHQWLRQ WKDW
PRGHOVZLWKPRGHUDWHOHQB/670 LH DUHPRUHVWDEOHDQG
2017 IEEE 20th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
JHW PRUH FHQWUDOL]HG ORZ 0$3(V WKDQ WKH RWKHUV LQ RXW RI JURXSV7KH VPDOOHVW YDOXHV RI 0$3(VDQG 506(VDUH PRUH
VWUXFWXUHV:KHQWKHVWUXFWXUHEHFRPHV/670'11DOO OLNHO\WREHREWDLQHGIURPPRGHOVZLWKDQGOHQB/670
OHQB/670 W\SHV RI PRGHOV EHFRPH GUDPDWLFDOO\ XQVWDEOH EXWFRUUHVSRQGHQWO\WKHODUJHUYDOXHVKDYHKLJKHUSUREDELOLWLHVWR
LQGLFDWLQJ /670 '11 VWUXFWXUH SRVVLEO\ DQ LPSURSULDWH EH VHHQ LQ WKHVH PRGHOV $QG QR PDWWHU IRU 0$3( RU 506(
RQHIRUSUHGLFWLRQWDVNVVLQFHLWODFNVUREXVWQHVV ZKHQ OHQB/670 LV /670 '11 PRGHOV DUH DOZD\V
EHWWHU WKDQ /670 '11 DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH ER[ ZLGWKV DQG
:KHQFRPSDULQJZLWK506(LQ)LJ F DQG)LJ G PRGHOV
OHYHOV EXW WKLV VLWXDWLRQ JHWV FRQWUDU\ ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVLQJ RI
ZLWK /670 OD\HUV JHW EHWWHU UHVXOWV PRUH FHQWUDOL]HG
OHQB/670 RUDWOHDVWDOPRVWHTXDO 7KHUHIRUH/670'11
GLVWULEXWLRQDQGORZHUPHGLDQ WKDQWKRVHZLWK/670OD\HUVLQ
ZLWK OHQB/670 LV RYHUDOORSWLPDO FKRLFH DPRQJ WKRVH
H[SHULPHQWV$QGWKHUHVXOWVIURPPRGHOVZLWKDQG
PRGHOVLQERWKSUHFLVLRQDQGUREXVWQHVV
OHQB/670DUHPRUHVWDEOHGHVSLWHRIRXWOLHUPRGHOV7KDWH[LWLQ
DOOW\SHVRIOHQB/670JURXSV)XUWKHUPRUH/670'11
ZLWKOHQB/670JHWVWKHEHVWSHUIRUPDQFHDQGUREXVWQHVVLQ
D 0$3( RQWHVWGDWD PLQVDVVOLGLQJZLQGRZ E 0$3( RQWHVWGDWD PLQVDVVOLGLQJZLQGRZ
F 506(RQWHVWGDWD PLQVDVVOLGLQJZLQGRZ G 506(RQWHVWGDWD PLQVDVVOLGLQJZLQGRZ
)LJ (YDOXDWLRQPHWULFVRISUHGLFWLRQRQWHVWGDWD
7$%/(,, (9$/8$7,210(75,&62)35(',&7,21217(67'$7$
SRVVLEOH IRU JHQHUDWLQJ H[SHFWHG DFFXUDWH DQG VROLG SUHGLFWLRQ >@ '%LOOLQJVDQG-6<DQJ³$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKH$5,0$0RGHOVWR8UEDQ
UHVXOWVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHHYDOXDWLRQPHWULFVRI0$3(DQG506( 5RDGZD\ 7UDYHO 7LPH 3UHGLFWLRQ $ &DVH 6WXG\´ ,((( ,QW &RQI RQ
6\VWHPV0DQDQG&\EHUQHWLFVSS±$5,0$
6HFRQGO\ ZH FKRRVH FRPSHWLWLYH /670'11 PRGHOV IURP
>@ : =KHQJ '+ /HH DQG 4 6KL ³6KRUWWHUP IUHHZD\ WUDIILF IORZ
DERYHDQGWHVWWKHPDORQJZLWKOLQHDUSUHGLFWLRQPRGHOVVXFKDV SUHGLFWLRQ %D\HVLDQ FRPELQHG QHXUDO QHWZRUN DSSURDFK´ -
OLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQ5LGJHDQG/DVVRUHJUHVVLRQ$5,0$DQG'11 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ(QJYROSS±%D\HVLDQQHWZRUN
PRGHOVLQVHYHUDOH[SHULPHQWJURXSVFRQWDLQLQJFRPELQDWLRQV >@ * ( +LQWRQ ³5HGXFLQJ WKH 'LPHQVLRQDOLW\ RI 'DWD ZLWK 1HXUDO
RIVOLGLQJZLQGRZVDQGSUHGLFWLQJKRUL]RQVWRIXUWKHUO\FKHFNWKH 1HWZRUNV´6FLHQFHYROSS±
DFFXUDF\ RI ERWK GHHS OHDUQLQJ DQG ZHOOXVHG VWDWLVWLFDO DQG >@ ;)HL&&/XDQG./LX³$%D\HVLDQG\QDPLFOLQHDUPRGHODSSURDFK
PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJPHWKRGV7KHUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKHVWURQJSRZHU IRU UHDOWLPH VKRUWWHUP IUHHZD\ WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ´ 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
RI RXU /670'11 PRGHOV ZKHQ WKH VOLGLQJ ZLQGRZ LV QDUURZ 5HVHDUFK3DUW&(PHUJLQJ7HFKQRORJLHVYROSS±
DQGWKHSUHGLFWLRQKRUL]RQEHFRPHVIDUDKHDGERWK0$3(VDQG >@ 5 /L DQG * 5RVH ³,QFRUSRUDWLQJ XQFHUWDLQW\ LQWR VKRUWWHUP WUDYHO WLPH
506(VDUHORZHUWKDQEHQFKPDUNPHWKRGVXQGHUWKHVHVFHQDULRV SUHGLFWLRQV´7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK3DUW&(PHUJLQJ7HFKQRORJLHVYRO
SS±$11
7KHUHVXOWVIURPWKHFRPSDULVRQRI/670'11PRGHOVDOVR >@ - 'XFKL ( +D]DQ DQG < 6LQJHU ³$GDSWLYH 6XEJUDGLHQW 0HWKRGV IRU
UHYHDOWKHFRPSOH[LW\DQGGLIILFXOW\LQWKHRSWLPL]DWLRQIRUGHHS 2QOLQH /HDUQLQJ DQG 6WRFKDVWLF 2SWLPL]DWLRQ´ - 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ
5HVHDUFKYROSS±
OHDUQLQJSUHGLFWLRQPRGHOV:HPDLQO\IRFXVRQWKUHHLPSRUWDQW
K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV UHODWHG WR WKH VWUXFWXUH RI /670'11 PRGHOV >@ % 3DQ 8 'HPLU\XUHN DQG & 6KDKDEL ³8WLOL]LQJ 5HDO:RUOG
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ'DWDIRU$FFXUDWH7UDIILF3UHGLFWLRQ´,(((WK,QW&RQI
EXW VHYHUDO PRUH IDFWRUV DOVR KDYH LPSDFWV RQ PRGHO VWUXFWXUH RQ'DWD0LQLQJSS+$5,0$
RSWLPL]DWLRQ IRU SURGXFLQJ RSWLPDO SUHGLFWLRQ UHVXOWV VXFK DV >@ 0 <LOGLULPRJOX DQG 1 *HUROLPLQLV ³([SHULHQFHG WUDYHO WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ
RSWLPL]LQJ PHWKRGV VHOHFWLRQ DQG WKH VHWWLQJ RI OHDUQLQJ UDWH IRUFRQJHVWHGIUHHZD\V´7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK3DUW%0HWKRGRORJLFDO
HSRFKDPRXQWEDWFKVL]HDQGRSWLRQDOUHJXODUL]DWLRQIRUWUDLQLQJ YRO SS ± ERWWOHQHFN LGHQWLILFDWLRQ DOJRULWKP FOXVWHULQJ
DPRGHO:HPDLQO\HPSOR\HGDVHWRIDSSURSULDWHGHIDXOWYDOXHV VWRFKDVWLFFRQJHVWLRQPDSVRQOLQHFRQJHVWLRQVHDUFKLQJ
IRU WKHVH K\SHUSDUDPHWHUV LQ RUGHU WR VLPSOLI\ WKH FRPSDULVRQ >@ -+DZRUWK-6KDZH7D\ORU7&KHQJDQG-:DQJ³/RFDORQOLQHNHUQHO
HPSKDVL]H WKH NH\ DVSHFWV IRU EXLOGLQJ PRGHOV DQG UHGXFH WLPH 5LGJH UHJUHVVLRQ IRU IRUHFDVWLQJ RI XUEDQ WUDYHO WLPHV´ 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
5HVHDUFK3DUW&(PHUJLQJ7HFKQRORJLHVYROSS±
FRVW,WVKRXOGEHDKXJHZRUNIRURSWLPL]DWLRQZKHQFRQVLGHULQJ
>@ 3 'XDQ * 0DR & =KDQJ DQG 6 :DQJ ³67$5,0$EDVHG WUDIILF
FKDQJHVRIDOOWKHVHK\SHUSDUDPHWHUVZKLFKLVVWLOODQXQVROYHG SUHGLFWLRQ ZLWK WLPHYDU\LQJ ODJV´ ,((( WK ,QW &RQI RQ ,QWHOOLJHQW
SUREOHP LQ GHHS OHDUQLQJ DUHD 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH IXUWKHU ZRUN 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ6\VWHPV ,76& SS±67$5,0$
VKRXOGEHIRFXVLQJRQPRUHDYDLODEOHVWUXFWXUHVRIGHHSOHDUQLQJ >@ :+XDQJ*6RQJ++RQJDQG.;LH³'HHS$UFKLWHFWXUHIRU7UDIILF
PRGHO LQFUHDVLQJ H[SHULPHQWV DGGLQJ PRUH ZHOOXVHG PRGHOV )ORZ 3UHGLFWLRQ 'HHS %HOLHI 1HWZRUNV :LWK 0XOWLWDVN /HDUQLQJ´ ,(((
IRU FRPSDULVRQ DQG RSWLPL]LQJ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI GHHS OHDUQLQJ 7UDQV,QWHOO7UDQVS6\VWYROSS±2FW
PRGHOV XQGHU GLIIHUHQW SUHGLFWLRQ VFHQDULRV %HVLGHV VSHFLILF >@ </Y<'XDQ:.DQJ=/LDQG)<:DQJ³7UDIILF)ORZ3UHGLFWLRQ
SUHGLFWLRQ HIIHFWVVKRXOGEHHYDOXDWHGDVLGHIURPWKHHYDOXDWLRQ :LWK%LJ'DWD$'HHS /HDUQLQJ$SSURDFK´ ,(((7UDQV,QWHOO7UDQVS
PHWULFV7KDWLVWRORRNGHHSHULQWRWKHVKDSHVRISUHGLFWHGWLPH 6\VWYROSS±$SU
VHULHV WR FKHFN KRZ ZHOO D PRGHO FDQ DFFRPPRGDWH DEUXSW >@ ;0D=7DR<:DQJ+<XDQG<:DQJ³/RQJVKRUWWHUPPHPRU\
QHXUDOQHWZRUNIRUWUDIILFVSHHGSUHGLFWLRQXVLQJUHPRWHPLFURZDYHVHQVRU
FKDQJHVWREHSUHGLFWLQJ GDWD´ 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 5HVHDUFK3DUW& (PHUJLQJ 7HFKQRORJLHV YRO
SS±0D\
5()(5(1&(6 >@ <7LDQDQG/3DQ³3UHGLFWLQJ6KRUW7HUP 7UDIILF)ORZE\ /RQJ6KRUW
7HUP 0HPRU\ 5HFXUUHQW 1HXUDO 1HWZRUN´ ,((( ,QW &RQI RQ 6PDUW
&LW\6RFLDO&RP6XVWDLQ&RP 6PDUW&LW\ SS±
>@ 06$KPHGDQG$5&RRN$QDO\VLVRIIUHHZD\WUDIILFWLPHVHULHVGDWD >@ - :DQJ 4 *X - :X * /LX DQG = ;LRQJ ³7UDIILF 6SHHG 3UHGLFWLRQ
E\XVLQJ%R[-HQNLQVWHFKQLTXHVQR$5,0$ DQG &RQJHVWLRQ 6RXUFH ([SORUDWLRQ $ 'HHS /HDUQLQJ 0HWKRG´ ,(((
>@ 6 +RFKUHLWHU DQG - 6FKPLGKXEHU ³/RQJ VKRUWWHUP PHPRU\´ 1HXUDO WK,QW&RQIRQ'DWD0LQLQJ ,&'0 SS±
FRPSXWDWLRQYROSS± >@ < -LD - :X DQG < 'X ³7UDIILF VSHHG SUHGLFWLRQ XVLQJ GHHS OHDUQLQJ
>@ &+:X-0+RDQG'7/HH ³7UDYHOWLPHSUHGLFWLRQZLWKVXSSRUW PHWKRG´ ,((( WK ,QW &RQI RQ ,QWHOOLJHQW 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 6\VWHPV
YHFWRUUHJUHVVLRQ´ ,(((7UDQV,QWHOO7UDQVS6\VWYROSS± ,76& SS±
695 >@ + <L + -XQJ DQG 6 %DH ³'HHS 1HXUDO 1HWZRUNV IRU WUDIILF IORZ
>@ - 9 /LQW 6 +RRJHQGRRUQ DQG + 9 =X\OHQ ³$FFXUDWH IUHHZD\ WUDYHO SUHGLFWLRQ´,(((,QW&RQIRQ%LJ'DWDDQG6PDUW&RPSXWLQJ %LJ&RPS
WLPH SUHGLFWLRQ ZLWK VWDWHVSDFH QHXUDO QHWZRUNV XQGHU PLVVLQJ GDWD´ SS±
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 5HVHDUFK 3DUW & (PHUJLQJ 7HFKQRORJLHV YRO SS
±$11