HPOP 111

INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION
STUDIES AND DEMOGRAPHY

MIRRIAM NGAKE
POPULATION RESEARCH & TRAINING UNIT
I-BLOCK
OFFICE G165
 FORM OF ASSESSMENT
• Groups assignment
-14 groups, 2o-21 Members per group
- Assignment layout
Cover page with list of group members and student
numbers
Table of contents
List of tables
List of figures
Acronyms
Definition of basic concepts used
 FORM OF ASSESSMENT
- Assignment layout
Introduction
Literature review ‘Body’
Conclusion
References
-Assignment format
Theme font :Arial
Font size : 12
Content spacing : 1.5
Content alignment : Justify
STUDY UNIT TWO-GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

• World Population Growth

• Population growth
• Redistribution of the world’s population through
migration
• Global variation in population size and growth
 LEARNING OUTCOME
• Provide an in-depth analysis of world population
growth over different periods

• Calculate population growth rate

• Discuss the current population growth rate and

provide reasons for the growth rates
 LEARNING OUTCOME
• Explain your understanding of the redistribution of
the world’s population through migration

• Provide clarity through discussion on the global

variation in population size and growth
 INTRODUCTION
• Population trends refer to the change in population size
which has occurred in the past to present.

• History of world population growth during hunting and

gathering, agricultural revolution and industrial revolution.

• Influence of migration on world’s population change and

distribution
 HUNTING AND GATHERING PERIOD
• Refers to the time in which humans were not yet in a
settled state as they are today
• People were moving from one place to the other
hunting animals and gathering wild fruits
• This period was characterised by lower fertility and
high level of mortality.
• No social class
• Life expectancy was estimated around 20 years
 HUNTING AND GATHERING PERIOD
• Causes of high mortality rate
-Famine : lack of food during a long period of time
-Harsh environmental condition
-conflict : competition of limited resources
-Plaques : infection diseases that kills a lot of people
 HUNTING AND GATHERING PERIOD
• Reasons for low birth rates
-limited food to feed many children
-high rate of spontaneous abortion due to poor health and
nutrition
-Nomadic/ unstable life
 AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION
• Agricultural revolution-humans/people started
engaging in agricultural activities.
• People were settled
• There were three key changes
-Bigger Farms (through enclosures and land
reclamation)
-Better equipment
-Better techniques (crop rotation and breeding)
 AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION

• Agricultural revolution increase production

• Cost of food dropped
• Increased production of food helped creates a rapid
growth of population
• Large farm using machines and scientific methods began
to dominate agriculture farming became big business
 AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION

• Fertility/ childbearing increased

-Settled life: Convenient to raise children
-More food supply
-Children became assets rather than liabilities
 AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION
• Mortality increased
-Incidence of diseases increased more due to the following:
-Settlement created conditions which contributed to
onset, spread and survival of parasites.
-Dense population lead to easy spread of disease like TB
-Domestication of animals increased infection and
diseases such as measles, small pox etc
-Stagnant water caused breeding grounds for malaria.
 AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION
• Theincrease in food supply allowed other people to
concentrate on other than food production

• As a results other people concentrated on the

improvement of technology and this possible paved a way
for industrial revolution
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
• Industrial revolution is a socio-cultural and economic shift
from cottage industry, traditional agricultural and a
manual labour to a system of factory-based manufacturing
that included complex machine, continual technology
growth, new energy sources and development in
transportation.
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
• The process started in Britain and spread to other parts of
the world and is still continuing
• The transition including shifting from production methods
to machines
-New chemical manufacturing and iron production
processes,
-Improved efficiency of water power
-The increasing use of steam power and
-The development of machine tools
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
• Changes of socio-economic conditions during industrial
revolution
-Transportation enable access to food
-Public health
Better hygiene-use of soap
Sanitation reduced incidence of diseases
Antibiotics, immunization programs improved
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

-Welfare improved

Increasing employment in industries

Increased economic development –trade access to food-
better nutrition
• The improvement in the socio-economic condition led to
decline in fertility and mortality
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
• Factors associated with fertility decline
-Increased urbanisation
-late age at marriage
-Change in family structure: Extended to Nuclear
-Increased labour force participation among women
-High participation in education
-Access to modern contraceptives (Birth control)
 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
Factors associated with Mortality decline
• Improved access to food
• Better nutrition
• Public health improvement
• Welfare improved
• Improved means of communication
 Population growth
• Explore the current population growth rate
• Provide reasons for the growth rates over various periods
• Understand at which rate population can growth
• Why population growth rate was slower in earlier period and
why is it more rapid in the recent times
• Required to explore the concept population implosion
 POPULATION GROWTH
• Two main aspect of behaviour in population
-The composition of a population is described by the
distribution of people among certain more or less standard
categories
-Change are the results of events, which add or take
members of the population.
-Population is not static phenomena, population change
constantly
-Change in size of the population, whether increase or
decrease s called growth
 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH

• Population change can be measured by the rate at which

population grow
• A rate of population growth
• -to find deal is devoted to changes of population size
• Average Annual rate of growth
-to find the difference between the number of people
present at two different date
 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH

-Formula : P2-P1
-P1= Population size at the first time in point (Initial
population size)
-P2=Population size of the same population at the second
point in time (Final population size)
 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH

Example : Average Annual growth rate between 2004

(46586607) and 2014 (54002000) for South Africa
AARG=P2-P1
= 54002000-46586607
= 7415 393
 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH
• Population Percentage change
• PPC= 𝑃1 *100
𝑃2−𝑃1

• Example population percentage change between 2004

(46586607) and 2014(54002000) for South Africa
• PPC =
𝑃2014−𝑃2004
𝑃2004
*100
54002000−46586607
= *100
46586607
 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH
7415393
= *100
46586607
= 0,15917*100
= 15,917
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION
• Formula: the balancing equation or demographic equation
• P2=P1+(B-D)+(I-E)
-P1= Population size at the first time in point (Initial
population size)
-P2=Population size of the same population at the second
point in time (Final population size)
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION
- B= Number of births in the period between the first and
second points in time
- D= Number of deaths in the period between the first and
second points in time
- I= Number of people that moved into the country
- E= Number of people that left the country
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION
• The principle of the balancing equation:
BIRTH
IMMIGRATION

POPULATION 2 CENSUSES

DEATH
EMIGRATION
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION

• The demographic balancing equation can be divided into

two components
1. Natural population growth = Births (B) – Deaths (D)
2.Net Migration = Immigration (I) –Emigration (E)
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION
• Example: Estimate the 2015 population for South Africa
using balancing equation
In 2014 South Africa had a total population of 54002000
persons, 1 207711 births, 551 389 deaths, 1 0190234
immigrants and 524228 emigrants
P2=P1+(B-D)+(I-E)
P2015=P2014+(B2014-D2014)+(I2014-E2014)
P2015= 54002000+ (1 207711 -551 389 )+(1 019034 +524228)
 USING DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING
EQUATION

P2015= 54002000+656322+494806
P2015= 55 153 128 persons
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS

• The techniques are most useful for :

- Estimating rates of growth in inter-censal intervals
Calculate growth rate between 2004 and 2014

-Estimating the size of the population at points of time

between censuses
e.g. calculate the 2012 Population size
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS
-Estimating the size of the population at a point in future

Calculate the 2019 population size

1. Linear/Arithmetic model-This model assumes that
population is changing by the same amount each year
Linear/ Arithmetic equations
P2=P1(1+rn) future population
𝑃2−𝑃1
r=
𝑛𝑃1
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS-Linear
P2=P1(1+rn)
P2= P1+P1rn
P2-P1=P1rn
𝑃2−𝑃1 𝑃1𝑟𝑛
=
𝑃1𝑛 𝑃1𝑛

𝑃2−𝑃1
r=
𝑛𝑃1
DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS-Geometric

2. Geometric growth model-It assumes that population

changes by the same percentage but not the same amount.
Geometric equation
P2=P1(1 + 𝑟)𝑛 future population size
𝑃2 1/𝑛
r=( ) -1
𝑃1
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS-
Geometric
P2= P1(1+r)𝑛
𝑃2
= (1+r)𝑛
𝑃1
𝑛 1
𝑃2 1/𝑛 ∗
( ) = (1+r) 𝑛
1
𝑃1
𝑃2 1/𝑛
( ) = 1+r
𝑃1
𝑃2 1/𝑛
( ) -1=r
𝑃1
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS

3. Exponential growth model- Assumes that population

changes by the same percentage but in a small period of
time.
P2=P1𝑒 𝑟𝑛
r= In(𝑃2Τ𝑃1)/n
 DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH MODELS
P2 = P1𝑒 𝑟𝑛
P2/P1= 𝑒 𝑟𝑛
Natural log rule applied
𝑒𝑦= x
ln 𝑥=log 𝑒 𝑥=y
In(P2/P1)=rn
In (P2/P1)/n =r
 EXPONENTIAL DOUBLING PERIOD
Used to calculate the number of years required for a
population to double.
ln 2
n=
𝑟
e.g. estimate the doubling period for South Africa between
2004 (46586607) and (54002000)
 EXPONENTIAL DOUBLING PERIOD
Step 1: Find the value of r
r= In (P2/P1)/n
= In(54002000/46586607)/10
= 0,015

Step: calculate n
n= In2/r
= 0,693/0,015
= 46 years
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
• As population in the world increased the desire to migrate
increase as well
• Migration streams flow from lower job opportunities area
to greater job opportunities areas
• More people live in urban than rural area
• Migration from rural to urban areas had historically played
a key role in the rapid growth of the cities
• Moving from dense populated area to less populated area
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
• Classification of international migration
-South to South moving from developing to developing
countries
-South to North moving from developing to developed
countries
-North to North moving from developed to developed countries
-North to South moving from developed to developing
countries
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
• European expansion or exploration- the exploration of regions
of earth for scientific, commercial, religious, military and other
purpose.

• According to different authors, Europeans explored the world

for three reasons namely, God (Spread Christianity),
gold(Economic reasons) and glory(expand their empire)(3Gs).
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
GOD
-Spread Christianityamong non-believers in other
countries of the world. Both Roman Catholic and Protestant
missionaries were sent to remote areas in order to convert people to
Christianity.
- Missionaries also offered the indigenous people Western
education and medical care, which they believed were
better than those offered by traditional teachers and
healers (They believed they were doing God’s work and helping to ‘civilise’
the rest of the world)
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION

GOLD
-Explored raw materials such as raw cotton
-Markets for manufactured goods such as fabrics/textiles.
-The exploitation of mineral and other resources gold in
particular provided great wealth for the colonising country.
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
GLORY
-Countries with large empires were respected and admired.
-Increased wealth resulted in greater military and political
power.
 REDISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION THROUGH MIGRATION
EUROPEAN EXPANSION

POPULATION GROWTH

-IMMIGRANTS -DESEASES
- male-female -ENSLAVEMENT
INCREASE DECREASE
ratio ?? -INTERMARRIAGE
-CONFLICTS
 URBAN REVOLUTION
• The process by which small villages were transformed into
large, socially complex, urban societies
• Almost everyone lived in the rural areas.
• Large cities were few and far between
• Redistribution of people from rural to urban areas occurred
earliest and most markedly in industrialized nation
 ESSAY
CHOOSE ANY OF THE FOLLOWING TOPICS FOR YOUR
ESSAY
-HUNTING AND GATHERING PERIOD AND
POPULATION GROWTH
-AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND POPULATION
GROWTH
-INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND POPULATION
GROWTH TOTAL MARKS [50]
 CLASS TEST
According to Statistics South Africa, Northwest Province had a
total population of 2 984 098 in 2001 and 3 509 958 in 2011.
Use linear or Arithmetic equation of Demographic growth model
to :
1. Calculate population growth between two censuses. Show all
the calculation step (10)
2.Use r obtained from question 1 to estimate the size of
population in 2007 (5)
3.Project 2019 population size using the value of r computed in
question 1. (5)
Question 1 Question 2
P2=P1(1+rn) P2=P1(1+rn)
.
P2= P1+P1rn P2007= P2001(1+rn)
=2 984 098 (1+(0,018*10))
P2-P1=P1rn
𝑃2−𝑃1 𝑃1𝑟𝑛
= 2 984 098 (1+0,18)
= =2 984 098 *1.18
𝑃1𝑛 𝑃1𝑛
Therefore: r=
𝑃2−𝑃1 =35212356,4
𝑛𝑃1
𝑃2−𝑃1
Question 3
r= P2=P1(1+rn)
𝑛𝑃1
=
3 509 958−2 984 098 P2019= P2011(1+rn)
(10∗2 984 098)
=3 509 958(1+(0,018*8))
525860
= =3 509 958(1+0,14)
29840980
r = 0,018 =3 509 958*1,14
=4015392,0