Grid Battery May 2024 Initiating
Grid Battery May 2024 Initiating
➢ At Texas Spring, CELL has delineated two zones of mineralization with high grades of up to 5,610 ppm
5,000,000
Li. We note that grades of comparable projects in Nevada typically range between 700 and 2,000 ppm. $0.20
➢ The Clayton Valley property is adjacent to the Silver Peak mine, and Century Lithium’s (TSXV: LCE/MCAP: $0.15
3,000,000
$70M) advanced-stage lithium project. CELL has commenced an exploration program including geophysical
$0.10
surveys, and soil sampling. 2,000,000
➢ CELL also owns a nickel project in B.C., near FPX Nickel’s (TSXV: FPX) Decar project, which hosts one of $0.05
1,000,000
the largest undeveloped nickel deposits in the world. Earlier this, Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE: 5813) acquired
a 10% interest in FPX for $14M. CELL is spinning out this project into a new publicly listed entity in the $- 0
coming weeks. SP (LHS) Vol (RHS)
➢ Lithium prices are down 37% YoY, but up 24% YTD to US$15.4k/t vs the five-year average of US$21k/t. We
believe prices will be under pressure amid slower global GDP, and EV sales growth, and increasing supply.
That said, we maintain a positive outlook on juniors focused on EV metals. Battery/EV YTD 12M
manufacturers/miners are actively seeking stable/long-term supply sources. CELL -38% 0%
➢ Based on our review of all the published data, we are assigning a preliminary speculative estimate of 0.7 TSXV 7% -4%
Mt Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) on Texas Spring. Based on this estimate, we note that CELL is trading
at $4/t vs the sector average of $51/t. The company has $6.5M in working capital, implying that liquid assets
account for 68% of the current MCAP. Company Data
➢ Upcoming catalysts include drilling, and positive sentiment towards juniors focused on EV metals. We note
that delineating a lithium resource is a faster and cheaper process vs mainstream metals such as gold and 52 Week Range $0.04 – $0.22
copper.
Shares O/S 188M
Market Cap. $9M
Risks
➢ The value of the company is dependent on lithium prices Yield (forward) N/A
➢ Access to capital and share dilution P/E (forward) N/A
➢ Exploration and development P/B 1.0x
➢ No NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate
➢ No assurance that the company will be able to advance all of its projects simultaneously
EPS $0.00
*See last page for important disclosures, rating and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
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Page 2 of 15
Portfolio Summary
Three early-stage
lithium projects in
Nevada, and one
nickel project in B.C.
Source: Company
Nevada
Nevada is the second largest producer of non-fuel minerals in the U.S. Its
primary commodities include copper, diatomite, gold, and sand gravel. The state
has been producing lithium since 1966.
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Nevada is well-
known for its
claystone lithium
deposits
Source: USGS
In 2022, Nevada
was ranked the most
attractive mining
jurisdiction in the
world, per the Fraser
Institute’s survey of
mining and
exploration
companies
The Clayton Valley According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. hosts
hosts America’s lone approximately 12 Mt of lithium resources or approximately 12% of global
lithium mine, and resources. Silver Peak is the only commercial lithium mine in North America,
several advanced accounting for 2% of global production. We believe the discrepancy between
stage lithium
projects production and resources in the U.S. suggests significant potential for the country
to become a major global producer.
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In 2022, the U.S. introduced the “Inflation Reduction Act”, which includes
provisions aimed at encouraging the production of EVs and their batteries within
North America. We note that battery/EV manufacturers/miners are actively seeking
stable/long-term supply sources in the country. In early 2024, the U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE) approved a US$2.3B loan to Lithium Americas to finance the
construction of a lithium processing facility at its Thacker Pass project. CELL’s
Texas Spring project is located east of the Thacker Pass project in northern
Nevada.
Prospective for
lithium clay deposits
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Texas Spring has been subject to surface sampling, and geophysical surveys. Soil
sampling has identified two zones of mineralization: one in the northwest
measuring 0.85 km long by 0.47 km wide, and another in the southeast measuring
0.20 km long by 0.17 km wide. We note that Texas Spring’s average grade (2,010
ppm Li) is comparable to that of NNLP’s 2,839 ppm.
Sampling returned
bonanza lithium
grades of up to
5,610 ppm Li;
grades in the region
typically range Two Mineralized Zones
between 700 and
2,000 ppm
Source: Company
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Page 6 of 15
Source: FRC
Well-established
infrastructure
including access to
paved highways,
country roads, and a
power station
Adjacent to
Albemarle’s Silver
Peak mine, and
Century Lithium’s Source: Company
Clayton Valley
project
Last month, Century Lithium completed a robust feasibility study, based on
annual production of 34,000 tonnes LCE over 40 years. The project’s initial CAPEX
is US$1.5B. The study returned an AT-NPV8% of US$3.01B, with an AT-IRR of
17.1%, using US$24,000/t LCE, and cash costs of US$8,223/t.
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The project is located in the Clayton Valley – a closed basin hosting multiple layers
of lithium-bearing volcanic ash containing lithium brine and clay deposits. Past
Potential to host
both lithium brine exploration and drilling (three holes/356 m) returned encouraging results (172 ppm
and clay deposits to 576 ppm Li), but inadequately assessed the claystone potential of the property.
Management intends to pursue a drill program, upon completing an ongoing
geophysics/soil sampling program.
Source: Company
Favorable location
and infrastructure
including
hydroelectric power,
and rail access
Adjacent to FPX
Nickel’s Decar nickel
project – one of the
largest undeveloped
nickel projects in the
world
Source: Company
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Exploration Targets
58% of samples
returned >1,800
ppm Ni
Source: Company
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Page 9 of 15
CELL is spinning out this project into a new TSXV listed entity in the coming
weeks. Once the transaction is completed, shareholders of CELL will receive a
share of the new company for every 20 CELL shares held.
Share Ownership
Management and
board own 1.73%
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Strength of Board
Source: FRC
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Outlook on Lithium
LCE Spot Prices
Source: Syrah
At the end of 2023, 40M EVs were in use globally, up from 10M at the end of 2020.
Per consensus forecasts, annual EV sales should increase to 35-40M by 2030, up
from 14M in 2023. We expect lithium demand in batteries will grow from 1
Mt/year currently, to 2.75 Mt/year by 2030.
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Global EV Sales
We believe lithium
demand growth will
outpace that of most
other EV metals
over the next
decade
Source: FRC
Demand is expected
to outpace supply in
the long-term
Source: S&P
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Page 13 of 15
Financials
(C$) (FYE - June 30) Q2-FY2024
Cash $5,050,997
In-the-Money - - -
In-the-Money - - -
Source: FRC/Company
Using our
preliminary
speculative estimate
of 0.7 Mt LCE on
Texas Spring, we
note that CELL is
trading at $4/t vs the
sector average of
$51/t
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Page 14 of 15
We are initiating coverage with a BUY rating, and a fair value estimate of
$0.22/share. For conservatism, we have refrained from assigning any value to the
Applying $51/t to our company’s other projects, as well as the potential 5% stock dividend resulting from
resource estimate, the impending spin-off of the nickel project.
we are arriving at a
fair value estimate of Upcoming catalysts include drilling, and positive sentiment towards juniors focused
$0.22/share on EV metals. As Grid is a relatively new company, we believe it is currently flying
under the radar. The lack of an NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate may deter
investors. However, we believe our preliminary resource estimate in this report
should bolster market confidence. We anticipate the stock will gradually align
with our fair value as investor awareness of the company grows.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
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Page 15 of 15
2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less
sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive
free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use
of debt.
3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are
sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry
averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a
turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products.
Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding.
These stocks are considered highly speculative.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (67%), HOLD (3%), SELL / SUSPEND (30%).
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