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NATIONAL POWERS
Types of powers
Medium: Traditional / new emerging
According to Edward Gordon, the middle forces are divided into two
categories, primarily the traditional Middle Middle Powers and the
Emerging Middle Powers. For the traditional middle powers, the
international order prevailed in special circumstances, prior to the Cold
War, when the world order was dominated by two poles. They are
characterized by their wealth, stability and equality, and are largely
democratic. At the behavioral level, they do not have clear regional
orientations.
As for the emerging new middle powers, they emerged following the end
of the Cold War and bipolar conflict, and increased attention to cultural
dimensions in the field of international relations. As a result, attention has
shifted from the traditional medium to the new ascendant. Which are
often democratic countries, suffer from the problem of poverty,
unemployment and lack of social equality, but they seek to create a great
deal of regional influence, and seek to join the various blocs and groups.
At the behavioral level, we are in need of reform, not radical change.
These countries appear to be regional powers, seeking to guide different
efforts to achieve some degree of regional cooperation. At the same time,
however, it seeks to create a different identity for itself from weak states
in its region.
The size of the national economy can be considered a sufficient criterion
for determining the state's ability and positioning it on the map of world
powers. David A. Cooper finds that it is enough to refer to the Gross
Domestic Product GDP (GDP) of a country to determine its ranking in
the global power structure. The top powers are represented in the top 10
countries in terms of GDP, while the next 20 reflect medium forces.
BRAZIL:
THE RISING POWER NATION
Brazil is a model for emerging Middle East countries with an
ambitious vision for its international status to the point of seeking a
permanent seat on the Security Council. After Brazil, like many other
countries in the south, was suffering from economic and social problems
that had been severely affected during the previous decades, in addition to
a sharp deterioration in freedoms, respect for human rights, increasing
poverty, hunger and deterioration of health and education services during
the period of dictatorial rule and its aftermath. Transition periods after the
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democratic transition in 1985. But the situation was gradually changing,
until left-wing Labor leader Lula da Silva came to power in 2003.
Although there are many trends and the lack of agreement on specific
lists of the average powers, in general, forces such as Canada, Australia,
Norway and Sweden are seen as traditional middle powers. While
countries such as Brazil, India, Malaysia, South Africa and Turkey are
seen as emerging medium powers.
In fact, the middle powers are concerned with a specific set of issues on
the world stage, often related to the reform of the international order,
migration, disarmament, human security and human rights. This is in
contrast to the major powers that have global agendas and areas of great
interest.
As for the difference between the middle powers and the regional powers,
it lies in the idea of leadership. The middle forces work in partnership
between a group of countries with common interests. Therefore, they are
not called the leadership of these countries, in contrast to the regional
power that plays a leading role. In many cases, however, the dividing line
between the two terms is unclear. Many of the rising middle powers are
seen as regional powers. This led to the emergence of a mixed concept,
the Middle Regional Powers.
Over the past decade, Brazil has adopted a very active foreign
policy towards its regional neighbors, and has played a leading role in
uniting all Latin countries until they reached the establishment of the
CELAC in 2011, a regional organization with 33 member states in the
two continents except the United States Canada. Which marked a historic
precedent where Latin American countries were able to declare their
unity in a single entity without the presence of the United States. On the
other hand, the activity of the Brazilian foreign policy outside its
territory, formed the Brix with China, Russia and India and then joined
South Africa after that.
Economy is the key to Brazilian progress
Brazil's foreign debt in 2002 reached more than 240 billion dollars.
Because of these debts and their high interest rates and IMF conditions,
the growth rates between 1999 and 2003 were almost zero. The country's
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credit rating, according to Standard & Poor's, fell, the confidence index in
the economy fell, foreign and domestic investors poured their money into
Brazil and the Brazilian riyal fell against the dollar. More complicated is
that this year was supposed to see a presidential election in October.
Opinion polls have suggested that leftist candidate Lula da Silva, known
for his left-wing party, and his leftist party could strongly oppose the
IMF's borrowing policy and its previous announcement of The need to
stop paying off external debts and use these payments in establishing
development projects and spending on social subsidy programs. For these
reasons, the month of July 2002 witnessed the peak of the decline in the
currency and the fall in share and bond prices. But in August and two
months before the presidential election, the situation changed completely
when President Cardoso's government announced a final deal with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) to lend Brazil a $ 30 billion loan, the
largest in the fund's history. What happened was that the Left Labor Party
sent a letter to the International Monetary Fund announcing that if Lula
da Silva wins the presidential election, the country will pay all the
financial commitments approved by the former president.
The nature of economic conditions over four decades can be reviewed as
follows:
1. The period of the 1970s
During that period, dictatorships adopted capitalist policies in which they
defended the interests of businessmen and business owners, without ever
taking the poor classes into account and playing the role of protecting the
country from the danger of communism and the repetition of the Cuban
model and forming a strong alliance with national capitalism and the
American administration..
2. The period of the 1980s
Like other Third World countries, the country has faced a debt crisis,
especially after the reckless borrowing policies pursued by the military
governments. Thus, during the 1980s, there were several attempts to
control high inflation rates and a decline in growth rates.
3. The 1990s
During this period, when the military completely withdrew from political
life and completed the peaceful and gradual transition of power to
successive civil governments, during the 1990s civil governments
adopted capitalist economic policies, adopting policies of economic
openness and market policies.
Cardoso attempts
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Former President Cardoso (1995-2002) has made several attempts to
reform the Brazilian economy, setting up the "Real" plan, which aimed to
integrate the local economy into the global economy.
The nature of economic and social problems when Lula came to
power in 2003
1. Economic problems:
The economic problems have been exacerbated: the problem of the
devaluation of the Brazilian riyal against the US dollar, inflation and
rising levels of public debt, whether external or internal, as mentioned
above, which led to the so-called crisis of confidence and weak growth
rates.
2. Social problems:
For example the problem of drop-out of education and overall poor
school conditions. In addition to the spread of organized crime, especially
the drug trade, like most countries of the continent. In addition to the
problems of hunger, unemployment, extreme poverty and the extreme
disparity between the strata of society, which was very clearly divided
into two layers: the first is a very high segment of rich rich in comparison
to a large segment of the poor extreme poverty and almost the middle
class is not at all visible in the scene Blatant economic inequality and a
near total lack of social justice.
1. What would Brazil have to achieve that miracle?
Brazil is the land of contradictions, where skyscrapers are mixed with tin
shingles, and climate is described as the world's largest repository of
biodiversity, where all ecosystems exist. And demographically living on
this earth are people of different races and origins. 54% of the eggs are
39% colored. They are also divided into Maltos, cabbages, Caucasian
(native African and Native Indians), 6% Negroes and 1% of the Arab
immigrants, and the number of indigenous people who remained pure and
did not mix with any of the coming peoples up to about 200 thousand
people, equivalent to 0.1% of the total population. However, it is an
ethnically homogenous society, in the sense that these assets can not be
described as different or conflicting sects or races, or separate lines can
be drawn between discrete communities based on color.
2. Details of Lula's economic policy to achieve growth, address
poverty and emerge from the specter of bankruptcy
1. Implementation of austerity program
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Brazil has implemented austerity program according to the IMF plan to
bridge the budget deficit and eliminate the crisis of confidence. What is
important is that when Lula took over the presidency, he did not retreat
from the program that his predecessor, Cardoso, He went out with
frankness and revealed that austerity policy was the first and best solution
to solve the problems of the economy, and asked the support of his poor
classes and patience for these policies, and this has been because of his
popularity and success successive.
The austerity program has reduced the country's budget deficit and the
country's credit rating, thereby contributing to the elimination of mistrust
in the Brazilian economy. Brazil has thus received about $ 200 billion in
direct investment from 2004 to 2011, Foreigner to stay in Brazil in 2011
and returned about 2 million Brazilian immigrants to the country. These
investments have led to an increase in the productive capacity of the state,
which means creating new jobs and thus contributing to solving the
problem of poverty. After the IMF refused to lend to Brazil in late 2002,
it now owes Brazil 14 billion dollars after eight years of work in the Lula
economic program.
2. Change lending policies
Credit facilities were introduced, reducing the interest rate from 13.25%
to 8.75%, which facilitated lending to small investors. This facilitated the
establishment of small enterprises, the creation of employment
opportunities, the upgrading of productive capacity and growth, which
generally contributed to solving the problem of poverty.
3. Expansion in agriculture and extraction of oil and minerals
Brazil has huge natural capacities from vast agricultural lands, rivers and
rain with great abundance and climate, making it a producer of unique
agricultural crops with global demand and not available in other countries
such as coffee and fruit, as well as vast mineral and oil wealth.
4. Industry expansion
The economic policies in this regard have focused on two aspects of the
industry. The first is the simple industries based on raw materials such as
metallurgy, food, leather and textile industries, which were already
existing but expanded as a result of expansion in agriculture and oil
discoveries,
5. Revitalize the tourism sector
Brazil, with its rare natural and impressive natural resources, is able to
attract large tourist groups. Brazil is a country that has a very special folk
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heritage in the celebration through the mass festivals, which are
witnessing a state of collective celebration in the streets of Samba dances,
music, colors and dazzling panoramas, and has succeeded in promoting
such Wen tourism and succeeded in receiving 5 million tourists annually.
Which will also contribute to the recovery of the economy and further
growth.
6. Direct ways to solve the problem of poverty (social benefits)
At the heart of this, was the Brazilian aid policy known as Bolsa Familia,
a program that began in the mid-1990s, The program is based on the
provision of financial aid to poor families with a view to upgrading and
improving their living, on the understanding that poor families are
defined as families with incomes below $ 28 per month.
It should be noted that despite the relentless efforts to combat poverty,
poverty remains and social inequality is still considerable. But what is
important is that it is less than it was in large percentages and rates, and
this indicates that the continuation of this process will mean more success
in completing the goal.
7. Moving towards economic blocs
On the other hand, Brazil not only used domestic economic policies to
promote the Brazilian economy, but also made remarkable strides at the
level of foreign economic policies. Through MEROXOR, which serves as
the Common Market for the South and was formed as a regional trade
agreement between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay in 1991 and
incomplete membership of Venezuela and Bolivia. It is now the fourth
largest economic power in the world.
Brazil, along with Russia, China and India, formed the BRICS Group in
2009 and South Africa joined in 2010. A group of five countries is
considered to be the largest economy in the developing world. This entity
is based on the thesis that by 2050 the economies of these countries will
compete with the economy of the world's richest countries. In any case, it
is one of the world's largest and fastest growing economies in the world.
The success of Brazil's social programs extends beyond its borders
The great success of Brazil's various social justice programs has made it a
guiding model for many countries in the world with similar problems.
Some 20 countries have been inspired by this success, such as Mexico,
Chile, South Africa, Turkey and Morocco. More surprisingly, the United
States has announced the establishment of Opportunity Opportunity
(NYC), a conditional financial assistance program similar to the Bolsa
Familia program.
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On the other hand, along with the Brazilian National Food Procurement
Program (PAA), Brazil, in cooperation with FAO, replicated the same
idea with five African countries - Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger
and Senegal - with the launch of the P4P program. Brazil will finance the
project, purchase agricultural products from small farmers in these
countries and provide food commodities to the poorest and most hungry
people in these countries, including the provision of school meals.
Sometimes this program is known as "Buying from Africa for Africa"
Translating economic success into political gains It is important to note
that when Lula came to power in 2003, his presidential program not only
reformed the country's deteriorating economic situation but also had a
very ambitious foreign policy agenda. Lula has used very brilliantly the
economic successes he achieved in his first term to gain gains in the
course of foreign policy, and on the other hand directed his active foreign
policy for new economic gains and so on in parallel.
His foreign policy agenda was based on active diplomatic action, not only
at the regional level within the South American continent but also at the
international level, based on Brazil's respect for the national sovereignty
of States and the maintenance of peaceful relations with all countries of
the world, , In the sense that Brazil in his reign has made very friendly
relations with the United States as well as Iran in spite of the conflict
between the two countries. His presidency has witnessed a remarkable
development in the Brazilian-Iranian relations. Brazilian diplomacy, in
the heart of President Lula, has been able to play this role brilliantly and
maintain equal distances with all parties, but with an active role, not just
on the sidelines of the international scene.
His policy was characterized by a very important matter, namely,
knowing the size of his country without falling into one of the mistakes of
intimidation or self-diminishing, which makes foreign policy decisions
more rational and in the interests of the interior and does not lead to
entering the country in economic and political problems do not accept it
Out.
Some indicators of Brazil's acquisition of rising power:
Economic Rise:
• By the end of 2011 Brazil was declared the sixth largest
economy in the world, ahead of Britain, and all indicators
indicate that it is a candidate next year to advance to fifth place.
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• Formation of the Brix alliance with major international
powers, Russia, China, India and South Africa, which is a
strong competitor to the US and European economies, and most
importantly, it is looming to create a new World Bank rival
bank.
• Brazil became one of the World Bank's lending countries after
suffering a severe financial crisis with the World Bank in 2002,
which enables it to pressure to change the voting power within
the institution to allow a larger percentage of developing
countries. Next, so that the Brix countries get a quota
approaching or perhaps equivalent to the United States, which
foreshadows a strong shift in the course of the decisions of the
World Bank.
• In the context of the economic crisis in Europe, Brazil's
economic power emerged when it purchased government bonds
in Portugal and, most importantly, played a strong role to
pressure international and European donor institutions to protect
the poor from the austerity policies that caused waves of violent
protests in Europe. .
In another sign, Brazil was the least affected by the global
economic crisis that hit all parts of the world except for Brazil,
which was able to achieve growth rates this year, reaching
5.1%.
2. Rise in the international political scene
• Brazil, after proving its economic rise indicators, is making a
formal claim to a permanent seat on the Security Council,
basing its demand on the basis that it is representative of the
South, and its partners in the BRICS countries, China and
Russia, support this demand.
• On the other hand, Brazilian diplomacy plays an active role in
presenting itself as a neutral international party capable of
mediating and devising new solutions to resolve conflicts
outside the traditional Western American system. This has been
clearly demonstrated in the recognition of the Palestinian state,
although this proposal is not complete. And the Brazilian role
with Turkey to find a way out of the Iranian nuclear file crisis.
It is also an attempt that was not as complete as the previous
one because of the American rejection. However, the most
important is the existence of international initiatives and
presence. Individually, while maintaining a good level of
friendly relations with the US pole and at the same time with all
other parties to the conflict.
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Obstacles to Ascension:
There are three categories of indicators that may indicate obstacles to
completing the rise of the state and achieving more successes in the field
of international relations: economic, social and political obstacles.
I. Economic Constraints:
Economic constraints include a range of indicators such as poverty rates,
unemployment and GDP, the ability to attract foreign investments, the
ability to reduce disparities in income distribution, per capita gross
domestic product (GDP), and the extent of corruption in the economic
sector. Following are a number of economic indicators in the countries
under consideration.
Brazil is ranked 120 out of 189 countries by the Ease of Doing Business
index. Which explains the existence of many economic and security
obstacles to attract foreign investment.
II. Social Constraints:
The existence of intellectual, cultural and ideological homogeneity
between the political and social forces interacting within the prevailing
system of governance is central, helping to create a measure of dialogue
and social cohesion. The existence of pluralism within a single state is not
a bad thing, nor a synonym for political instability, but the danger lies in
the politicization of these cultural differences in the state
In order to reduce ethnic disparities, the Brazilian Government adopted a
series of anti-discrimination and anti-discrimination policies. In this
regard, Brazil became one of the first Latin American countries to include
a quota of women in government services in 2002 and became the first
country in the world to establish a special ministerial-level secretariat to
manage racial equality policies in 2003 .
In addition to ethnic and ethnic problems, Brazil suffers from high crime
rates, and its rates have contributed to the growth of the drug trade, the
penetration of organized crime and the spread of armed gangs.
III. Political Obstacles:
The above-mentioned economic and social obstacles lead to a number of
political problems, which are mainly represented by the emergence of
protest movements against the State Administration of economic and
social issues, as well as the increase in official violence by the police.
