Government of India

2024-25
HIGHLIGHTS
 CONTENTS

1. State of the Economy: Getting back into the fast lane 03

2. Monetary and Financial Sector Developments:

The cart and the horse 06

3. External Sector: Getting FDI right 08

4. Prices and Inflation: Understanding the dynamics 11

5. Medium Term Outlook: Deregulation drives growth 13

6. Investment and Infrastructure: Keeping it going 14

7. Industry: All about Business Reforms 18

8. Services: New challenges for the old war horse 20

9. Agriculture and Food Management: The sector of the future 21

10. Climate & Environment: Adaptation matters 22

11. Social Sector: Extending reach and driving empowerment 24

12. Employment and Skill Development: Existential priorities 26

13. Labour in the AI era: Crisis or catalyst 29

 Elevated global uncertainties

Higher World Trade Uncertainty index Higher Geopolitical risk index

(WTUI) in 2024 (GPR) in 2024
13.0 133.6
WTUI average

GPR average
8.5

121.7

2023 2024 2023 2024

Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty https://www.policyuncer- Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty https://worlduncertain-
tainty.com/gpr.html tyindex.com/data/

India’s growth remains close to the decadal average

despite global uncertainties

10
FY25 Average growth over FY15 and FY24 (excluding FY21 and FY22)
8
Per cent

0
Agriculture Industry Services GVA GDP
GVA GVA GVA
Source: MoSPI, Note: GVA: Gross value added: GDP: Gross domestic product

Steady shares of investment and consumption in GDP

140
GFCE PFCE GFCF Exports Imports
120
19.9 18.7 18.7 21.4 23.2 21.8 21.5
18.8
Per cent of nominal GDP

100
28.2 29.5 28.5 27.3 29.6 30.7 30.8 30.1
80

60

40 58.7 59.3 60.9 61.1 61 60.9 60.3 61.8

20
10.8 10.8 11 11.6 10.5 10.7 10.4 10.3
0
-22 -23.7 -21.2 -19.1 -24 -26.8 -24.1 -24.1
-20

-40
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
(FAE)

Source: MoSPI
4 Note: PFCE – Private Final Consumption Expenditure, GFCE- Government Final Consumption Expenditure, GFCF- Gross Fixed Capital
Formation
 2 Monetary and Financial Sector
Developments: The cart and the horse
Improvement in asset quality of banks

Gross Non-Performing Assets ratio Improvement in the profitability

(% of gross advances) of SCBs on a of SCBs reflected in rising Return
declining trajectory on Assets (RoA)

1.4%
7.3%
1.3%

1.2%
5.8%

0.9%
3.9%

2.8%
0.7%

2.6%

Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Sept-24

Source: RBI Financial Stability Report, various issues

Bank credit steady

6.1% 5.6% 8.6% 15% 16.3% 15.3% 15% 14.4% 11.8%

180
160
Gross bank credit (₹ lakh crore)

140
120
100
80 164.6 166.5 170.5
159.0 159.7
136.8
60 118.9
103.7 109.5
40
20
0
Apr-24

Nov-24
FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

Sep-24
Aug-24

Bank Credit YoY growth in bank credit

6
 3 External Sector: Getting FDI right
Global trade dynamics

Rise in global trade uncertainty Rebound in global trade in 2024

Merchandise export volume growth
300 Merchandise import volume growth
4

indices, seasonally adjusted (2005 Q1=100) (Per cent)

Trade policy uncertainty index

Growth in merchandise export and import volume

250

2
200

150
0

100

-2
50

0
-4
Mar-21
Mar-18

Mar-19
Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-20

Mar-22

Mar-23
Sep-18

Mar-24
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2023 2024

India’s trade performance in the first eight months of FY25

Non-petroleum and Non-petroleum & Non-

Merchandise trade deficit widened in the
Gems and Jewellery exports performed well in
first nine months of FY25
the first nine months of FY25

Apr-Dec 23 Apr-Dec 24 Apr-Dec 23 Apr-Dec 24

533
506 273

317 322
255
251
USD billion

USD billion

230

-190
-211

Merchandise exports Merchandise Merchandise Trade Non- petroleum exports Non-petroleum & Non Gems
imports Deficit & Jewellery exports

8
 India continues to attract substantial foreign investments

Services sector leads FDI inflows with 19.1%

Rise in Gross FDI inflows; Repatriation a sign of share in H1 FY25, followed by technology,
profitable exits trading and non-conventional energy

Gross FDI inflows Repatriation

90

80

70

60 Services Sector (Financial, Computer software

Insurance etc.) and hardware
USD billion

19.1% 14.1%
50

82 85
40
74 71 71
Construction
30 (infrastructure) Electricity
56 Non-conventional activities energy
44 47 energy 4.4% 4.3%
20 40 7.0%
27 29 29 30
10 18

0 Hospital &
Cement and gyspum diagnostic
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Apr-Nov Apr-Nov Trading products
Consultancy Automobile
centers
services industry
23 24 9.1% 6.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1%

Strengthening Forex Reserves

Forex reserves were at a high of USD 706 billion in September 2024; and stood at USD 640.3
billion by 27 December, 2024, covering 89.9% of external debt

800
706
700
646 652 640
622
595 588
600 578

500
USD billion

400

300

200

100

0
Sep-24
Mar-24
Mar-23

Sep-23
Jun-23

Dec-23

Jun-24

Dec-24

10
 Impact of extreme weather events on vegetable inflation:
evident up to three months (April 2020-Dec 2024)

50 60

Veg Inflation (%), in time (t+3)

40 50
Veg Inflation (%), in time (t)

40
30
30
20

month
20
month

10 10
0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30
-30 0 20 40 60
0 20 40 60
No of days with extreme weather Event
No of days with extreme weather Event

Source: Ministry of Earth Sciences and Consumer Price Indices released by CSO, MoSPI

Administrative measures to control food inflation

CEREALS
 Stock Limits on Wheat
 Open Market Sale Scheme: Wheat and Rice
 Sale Under Bharat Brand: Wheat Flour and Rice

PULSES
 Sale Under Bharat Brand: Chana, Moong and Masur Dal
 Duty-Free Import: Desi Chana, Tur, Urad, Masur and Yellow
Peas
 Imposition of Stock Limits: Tur and Desi Chana

VEGETABLES
 Subsidised Sale of Onion and Tomato
 Buffer Stock of Onion

Source: Various PIB releases

12
 6 Investment and Infrastructure:
Keeping it going
Progress in physical connectivity

Railways

Cumulative no. of Vande Bharat trains and production of coaches

FY25
(Upto Oct) 68
FY25
(Upto Oct) 900

FY24 51
FY24 672

FY23 10 FY23 216

2018-22 2 2018-22 32
Numbers Numbers

Source: Ministry of Railways

Civil aviation and ports and shipping

Reduction in average container

Operationalised airport and routes under RCS
turnaround time in major ports

48.1
Hours

30.4

FY24 FY25 (Apr-Nov)

Source: Airport Authority of India Airport and JV/PPP airports, Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways

14
 Rural infrastructure

Progress under Jal Jeevan Mission: Access to safe piped drinking water

15.3
Crore States achieving full
No. of Rural Households

coverage under JJM:

1. Arunachal Pradesh
2. Goa
3. Haryana
4. Himachal Pradesh
3.2
Crore
5. Gujarat
6. Punjab
7. Telangana
8. Mizoram
Aug-19 Nov-24

Source: Ministry of Jal Shakti

Increasing number of villages achieving ODF plus status

As of 31 March 2024 As of 22 November 2024

16 Source: Ministry of Jal Shakti

Note: Charts present “Model” villages
 7 Industry: All about business reforms
Optimism in the economy
150.0 Business Expectations Index
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
Q2:2022-23

Q1:2024-25

Q3:2024-25
Q1:2022-23

Q3:2022-23

Q4:2023-24
Q1:2023-24
Q4:2022-23

Q2:2023-24

Q3:2023-24

Q2:2024-25
2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
Note: >100 optimistic <100 pecimistic.

Growth in cement and steel production driving India’s infrastructure

Rising cement production Steady increase in production and

consumption of steel

500 160
140
400
120
million tonnes

million tonnes

300 100
80
200
60

100 40
20
0
0
FY 23
FY 20

FY 22

FY 24
FY21

FY 25(Apri-Oct)

FY22
FY20

FY21

FY23

FY24

Apr-Nov(FY25)

18 Production Consumption
 8 Services: New challenges for the old war horse
Increasing trend of services sector India’s increasing share in global
share in GVA services exports

56.0 5
4.3

54.0 4
3.0
3

Per cent
52.0
Per cent

1.9
2
50.0

1
48.0
0
2005 2014 2023
46.0
FY13 FY19 FY25

Challenges, opportunities and way forward for services

Challenges

Offshore Work
New

Traditional apprenticeship model faces challenges of inadequate direct

supervision, language barriers, information gaps and differences in
regulatory provisions across countries

Servicification
Opportunities

 Increasing demand for embedded services

 Adoption of digital technologies and AI in services and
manufacturing
 Encashing the strength of global trade in services

Policy support
Forward
Way

Reform grassroot-level
Appropriate skilling to reap
procedures and regulations
benefits of digital revolution
that hinder growth
20
 10 Climate & Environment: Adaptation matters
Challenges and priorities for India

High economic growth to achieve the Bringing adaptation to the forefront

status of a developed country by 2047 given higher vulnerability to climate
and also become net zero by 2070 change
Challenges

Priorities
International support on finance and Reducing emission intensity of its
technology is highly inadequate. India indispensable thermal power through
meets its requirements largely from its adoption of super-critical (SC), ultra-
own budgetary sources. A small NCQG super-critical (USC) and Advanced Ultra
of USD 300 billion has been set Super Critical (AUSC) technologies

Follow a low-carbon development Also focus on environmental

path while ensuring job creation and sustainability through moderation of
affordable energy security for all, given consumption and production habits as
the limitation of renewable energy envisaged under Mission LiFE

Mitigation bias in international flow of funds

35
International flow of funds for climate India ranked 7th most vulnerable country
30.4 actions are highly inadequate and are to climate change, emphasizing urgency
30 biased in favour of mitigation of adaptation

India’s adaptation related expenditure

25
rose from 3.7% to 5.6% of GDP between
FY16 and FY22
19.6
20
16.4
15 Mitigation

10.5 Adaptation
10

5
1.1 0.6
0
MDB Climate Finance Bilateral Climate Multilateral Climate
Finance Fund

22
 11 Social Sector: Extending reach and
driving empowerment
Increase in social services expenditure (Union+States)

Total Expenditure (TE) ( la crore) Expenditure on Social Services ( la crore)

Expenditure on social services as % of TE (RHS)
120 26.2
24.4
23.3 25
crore

100 98.0

20
80
la

Per cent
15
60
Expenditure in

42.7
40 10
25.7
20 5
10.4

0 0
FY 20

FY 23
FY 21

FY 22
FY 17

FY 19
FY 18

FY 25 BE
FY24 RE
Note: As per the Ministry of Education (MoE) estimates, the total expenditure on education is ₹ 9.7 Lakh Crore for FY 22(BE).

Building strong foundations for lifelong learning

Improving Basic Facilities in Schools Building Blocks for a Better Education

Girls Toilet
97.2%
Foundational
Boys Toilet Literacy and
Numeracy (FLN)
95.7%
Social and Peer Learning:
Hand wash Facility • Nalli-Kali (joyful
Emotional
learning in Kannada)
94.7% Learning Programme
• Prerana model of
Library/Reading Room/ Reading corner education
• NIPUN Bharat
89% • SEE Learning
India
Life Skills
Electricity • Life Skills • Life Skills Framework
91.8% Collaborative • Tim Tim Tare
Initiative
Medical check-ups in school in a year • PM e-Vidya channel
75.2%

Computer
57.2%

Internet
53.9%
(% of schools with basic facilities)
24
Source: UDISE + 2023-24
 12 Employment and Skill Development:
Existential priorities
Improving labour market indicators

Urban Labour Market Indicators

Usual status, for individuals aged 15 years and above
70 52 LFPR UR (RHS) 25
60.1 58.2
60 50.4
49.8 20
50 46.8 50

15
Per Cent

40

per cent

per cent
48
30
10
20 6.4
46
5
10 6.0
3.2
0 44 0
2019-20
2021-22

2019-20
2021-22

2019-20
2021-22
2017-18

2022-23
2023-24
2017-18

2022-23
2023-24

2022-23
2023-24
2017-18

Jan-Mar 2022

Jan-Mar 2023
Apr-Jun 2021
Jul-Sep 2021
Oct-Dec 2021

Apr-Jun 2022
Jul-Sep 2022

Jul-Sep 2023
Oct-Dec 2023
Jan-Mar 2024
Oct-Dec 2022

Apr-Jun 2023

Apr-Jun 2024
Jul-Sept 2024
LFPR WPR UR

Source: Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) annual reports. MoSPI Source: Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Quarterly reports.
Note: LFPR: labour force participation rate MoSPI
WPR: worker population ratio
UR: unemployment rate

Increase in female labour force participation rate

2017-18 2023-24

26 Source: Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) annual reports. MoSPI

 Skilling for a changing world

Reskilling & upskilling Women participation

• CTS at ITIs: 1.24 Cr enrolled for long-term • PMKVY: Women’s participation is 58 %
training (FY25)
• PMKVY: 1.57 Cr trained; 1.21 Cr certified • JSS: Women form 82% of total beneficiaries
(STT, SP, RPL) • ITI/NSTI: Women’s participation increased
• JSS: 27L trained; 26L certified from 9.8% (FY16) to 13.3% (FY24)
• NAPS: Women’s share grew from 7.7%
(FY17) to 22.8% (FY25)

International mobility New age & future skills

• NCVET: 200+ new-age & future skill

• Bilateral partnerships
courses approved
• G2G Memorandums of Understanding
• PMKVY: 4.65L enrolled; 3.02L
• Skill India International Centers completed; ~98K in training
• Pre-Departure Orientation Training • ITIs: 29 new-age courses added under
CTS

Industry partnerships Digital public infrastructure

for skilling

• NAPS Portal: Registered establishments • Skill India Digital Hub Portal: A

reached 2.38L; 37.94L apprentices engaged transformative platform to empower the
• New ITI Upgradation Scheme (2024): skill ecosystem.
Upgrade 1,000 ITIs in hub-and-spoke • Democratising Skills: Easy access to
• 20L youth to be trained over 5 years in industry-aligned courses.
industry-aligned courses
28 Note: As per the latest available figures.
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DEPARTMENT OF
ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
Government of India