Future Predictions 2040 in Japan The Dawn of the Limited-Labor Supply Society

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan

The Dawn of the Limited-Labor Supply Society

Recruit Works Institute

100-6640
1-9-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda, Tokyo
Gran Tokyo South Tower
Recruit Co., Ltd.
https://www.works-i.com

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan

The Dawn of the Limited-Labor Supply Society
Recruit Works Institute
The Dawn of Table 1 Trends in Population Aged 15-64 and Population Aged 65+

the Limited-Labor Supply Society (10K people)

8,000 7,735
Population aged 15-64 Population aged 65+

Why must we work on Future Predictions now? 7,509

7,170
6,875
7,000
6,494
5,978
6,000
We live in unpredictable times. Why must we work on that upsets the balance between the supply and
5,000
Future Predictions now, when random changes occur at demand of labor. People of all ages consume the labor
such dizzying speed? of others, but as they age, they gradually lose the ability 3,782 3,921
4,000 3,603 3,677 3,716
3,379
Every five or so years, Recruit Works Institute has to provide their own labor. This one simple truth poses
3,000
been conducting Future Predictions simulations to a significant problem for the future of Japan, whose
present our vision of how “work” may look in the future. population is ageing faster than that of any other country 2,000

These most recent Future Predictions stem from our in the world. In other words, societies with growing
1,000
serious concerns about a pressing issue in Japanese elderly populations will become unable to keep up
society, one that we have not given much coverage so with the demand for the requisite labor force, leading 0

far: to chronic labor supply shortages. This is what we call 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
a “limited-labor supply society.”
Source: Data up until 2020 based on the “2020 National Census”, data from 2025 onward based on moderate-range projections
Our limited labor supply. from the “Estimated Future Population of Japan (2017 Estimate)” by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

The greatest concerns for limited-labor supply

This is more than just a shortage of workers. Industries society are their “lifestyle maintenance services.” We perform simulations of what our society may We would experience long-term economic stagnation
and corporations in Japan are facing a lack of successors The logistics, construction, civil engineering, caregiving, experience in the future, then carry out investigations and shrinkage across all levels of society; additionally,
and digital talents, and have difficulty passing on skills. welfare, and hospitality industries are already facing and research to discover the future value of “work” in we would be unable to sustain the services on which we
However, we are more concerned with the issue that significant worker shortages due to demonstrable gaps order to overcome the limited labor supply and continue rely day to day, diminishing our standard of living. The
Japanese society may no longer be able to provide in supply and demand. This is quite a serious problem; enriching both society and people’s daily lives. active labor force would have to be assigned to lifestyle
the labor force necessary to sustain our lifestyles. if ignored, the labor shortages in these industries could If we leave things as they are now, without trying maintenance services, stemming the flow of human
Two structural factors have accelerated the greatly disrupt our daily lives. “Lifestyle maintenance any solutions, sooner or later we would encounter the resources to more cutting-edge fields and creating a
progression of this issue: the declining birthrate and the services” include delivering items we order and disposing following issues: vicious cycle of further economic stagnation.
ageing population. of our trash, as well as disaster recovery, removing This report was designed to both raise the alarm about
snow from our roads, childcare services, long-term care and propose solutions to the social issues that Japanese
Changing demographics tend to generate great services, and more. We benefit from these services on ● The inevitable deterioration in the standards
society will surely face in the future due to the limited
public debate. In the past, the birth of the first Baby a daily basis, each and every one of them born from the of necessary services (cessation of home
labor supply. We also aim to investigate society’s efforts
Boom generation sparked debate over the expansion of labor of irreplaceable individuals. healthcare due to lack of workers, increase in
one by one and rediscover the value of those budding
higher education institutions, turning the question of their snow-related traffic accidents due to lack of
endeavors.
post-graduation employment into a social issue. The Our world has plunged into an era of discontinuous snow removal services, degradation of roads
How can we ensure our society and people continue
declining birthrate has also been an issue since the early change. However, it is almost guaranteed that Japan due to lack of proper maintenance...)
to prosper even in a limited-labor supply society? How
1990s, leading to protracted debates over the future of will become a limited-labor supply society in the future, ● The termination of services due to lack of
does our “work” need to change for us to bring about a
social security. Currently, Japan’s demographics are based on reliable predictions of demographic statistics. necessary workers (local industries dying
fulfilling future? We offer these “Future Predictions” as
shifting more and more; the elderly population is growing Only those who are 25 years old right now can turn 40 out due to lack of successors, difficulty in
food for thought for everyone living in Japan.
as the working-age population declines precipitously. We in 15 years. This essential property of demographic maintaining police and fire stations...)

are already experiencing an overall decline in population. composition, as well as the changing framework of labor ● The inability make use of lifestyle maintenance

However, this issue seems to have been left on the back supply and demand caused by the continually-ageing services as needed, pushing all members of

burner due to the recent rise in employment. population, are both unavoidable certainties when society (including white-collar workers) to their

Although this has rarely been discussed, ageing predicting the future of Japanese society. limits and distracting them from their work

societies are thought to produce an excess of demand

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 02 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 03

The Latest Simulations of sudden drop in the working-age population will bring it
P.4 (Overall)

The Future of Work

down to 63.37M by 2030, and then to 57.67M by 2040. In this sidebar, we will explain our labor supply-and-demand
simulation. We used the estimation methodology outlined
in the document “Estimation of Labor Force Supply and
Largely Unchanged Labor Demand Demand: Future Estimate based on the Labor Force Supply
and Demand Model (2018 Version)” published by the Japan
Institute for Labor Policy and Training (JILPT) in 2019 as a
In the future, Japan’s labor demand (labor reference when building this simulation model.
Our simulation model consists of three blocks: demand,
consumption) will remain largely unchanged. Japan’s supply, and supply-demand adjustment. We used pre-2019
elderly population will not decrease by 2040, so neither data to create the predictive equations for each block, then
Table 2 Labor Supply-and-Demand Simulation used those as a basis for our future estimates. Additionally,
will the demand for labor; the elderly population is we used JILPT (2019) as a reference when designing our
(10K people) (10K people)
estimated to reach its peak in 2042. The elderly rely classification system; we estimated demand for each industry
7,000 0
0.0 6867.9 and supply for each gender and age group.
-12.8 -25.1 heavily on lifestyle maintenance services that require
6,800 -63.3 -100 We used the following methods to create predictive
6678.7
-101.7 equations and predict the future.
human labor, such as medical, welfare, logistics, and
6,600 -200 For the “demand” block, we created a predictive equation
-192.8 retail services. As a result, labor consumption will likely
-236.1 to estimate changes in employment based on the production
6,400 6337.2 -300
amount, wages, and working hours for each industry. The
-282.8 continue to increase, especially for occupations in these
-341.5 actual values reflect the number of persons employed, while
6,200 -400
-389.1 industries. the predicted values represent those who could potentially be
6,000 -500 employed, i.e. the future labor demand.
-479.2
For the “supply” block, we estimated the labor force
-539.7
Limited Labor Supply
5,800 -600 participation for each gender and age group (including
-604.0 estimates for married and unmarried women). Multiple
5767.5
5,600
-678.9
-700
Will Trigger Paradigm Shift variables affect labor force participation, such as
5,400
-736.9 -800 unemployment, education, and actual wages, so we created
predictive equations with different combinations for each
-833.2 -900 Demographics are the most reliable and unwavering
5,200 target. We multiplied the labor force participation that we
-916.0 tool for predicting the future; as such, we do not believe derived by the “Estimated Future Population of Japan” as
5,000 -1,000
calculated by the National Institute of Population and Social
-1,000.7
-1,100
that Japan can avoid becoming a limited-labor supply Security Research to predict the future labor force population.
4,800
-1,100.4 This labor force population is equivalent to the future labor
society. This change will affect more than just those in the
4,600 -1,200 supply. For example, our estimate assumes an increase in
workforce. We will likely have to endure more hardships (married) women ages 30-34 in the workforce, from 71.5% in
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2021 to 83.5% in 2040.
in our daily lives, prompting inevitable changes in how
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For the “supply-demand adjustment” block, we used
companies are managed and how people approach the ratio of job openings to job applicants to estimate the
Labor Shortage (Right Axis) Labor Demand (Left Axis) Labor Supply (Left Axis) unemployment and wage inflation rates. These values affect
their own jobs. Our labor supply-and-demand simulation both supply and demand.
indicates the potential for a massive paradigm shift. The resulting labor demand per industry and labor supply
per gender and age group were used to determine the labor
At the same time, the simulation also shows that this supply and demand by occupation and prefecture using the
is just the beginning of our worsening worker shortage. results of the National Census (2015, 2020).
Please refer to the Recruit Works Institute website for more
Labor Shortage of 11M People Labor Shortage to Surpass 3.41M One saying in Japan through 2040 will surely be “Now is details.

by 2040 by 2030, 11M by 2040 the best time to hire people.” Each year, it will become
P.6 (Per Occupation)
more and more difficult to secure human resources. We predicted the labor supply and demand per occupation
by determining the occupational composition of each industry
Recruit Works Institute created a simulation model to The labor shortage in 2040 will be the equivalent of the This realization will motivate companies to hire more
using the National Census and dividing the labor supply and
show how labor supply and demand in Japanese society complete extinction of the current employed population of employees, intensifying the competition to acquire talent. demand obtained from that simulation proportionally. As we
had already determined the labor supply per gender and age
may change by 2040. Information on the logic for this the Kinki region (an average of 11.04M from Jul. to Sept. Companies may then take unprecedented actions, such group, we divided the sum of these figures proportionally
simulation model can be found in the sidebar on the 2022). as changing their management strategies, raising funds, per industry and calculated the labor supply per industry in
advance.
right. Also, please keep in mind that this model is based or developing new products, to gain said talent. For demand, we simply extended the occupational
on a scenario in which Japan’s economy does not show Rapid Decrease composition of the 2020 National Census to the year 2040.
For supply, on the other hand, we believe that factors such as
significant growth. In other words, the demand for labor in Future Labor Supply working conditions and environments are causing the labor
would increase further if Japan’s economic growth were force to migrate (turnover) regardless of changes in demand.
To reflect these assumptions in our predictions, we used the
to exceed this estimate. Japan’s labor supply (the number of those able to 2015 and 2020 National Censuses to determine the average
rate of occupational composition change up to 2040, and
Table 2 shows the overall trends in supply and work) will level off in the next few years, then begin to
calculated the labor supply by occupation for each year based
demand. This simulation has brought the future of decrease precipitously around 2027. In 2022, Japan’s on those figures.

Japanese society into stark relief. labor supply consisted of about 65.87M people; this

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 04 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 05

 Table 3 Simulation Per Occupation Significant Labor Supply causing gradual shortages of products that are mainly

Shortage in Lifestyle produced domestically.

Maintenance Services The supply shortage in the 4. Sales & Merchandising

industry will equal 402,000 people by 2030 and 1.089M
Labor Shortage (Right Axis) Labor Demand (Left Axis) Labor Supply (Left Axis)
We performed a labor supply-and-demand simulation by 2040. This represents a shortage of 24.8% compared
for each occupation as well. When analyzing these to the labor demand (4.385M people) in 2040. Retail
occupations, we focused mainly on the lifestyle stores may be forced to lower the quality of their services
1. Transport, Machine Operation, & Shipping 2. Construction
(10K people) (10K people) (10K people) (10K people) maintenance services that support us day to day. We and operate unmanned, especially in rural areas.
99.8
500 100 300 289.8 100 added clerical, technical, and specialist services to the We anticipate a supply shortage of 210,000 people in
298.9
460 80 280 80 seven categories of lifestyle maintenance services for a 2030 and 580,000 by 2040 for 5. Caregiving Service,
65.7
409.0 413.2 total of eight categories (Table 3). populated by caregivers and home healthcare workers.
420 60 260 267.4 60
The results of our simulation indicate labor shortages This would mean a 25.3% shortage compared to the
37.9 40 240 40
380
across almost every industry; here, we would like to labor demand (2.297M people) in 2040. Even if this
371.1 22.3 233.2
340 20 220 20 examine them one by one to more clearly imagine the averaged out nationwide, the standard of care would
313.4

300 0 200 0
future of both our society and our daily lives. still decline; those requiring elderly care services four
First of all, we estimate that the 1. Transport, days a week would only be able to attend for three days
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Machine Operation, & Shipping industries (Drivers) due to lack of staff.
will experience a labor supply shortage of 379,000 The 6. Customer & Food Service industries will
3. Manufacturing 4. Sales & Merchandising people by 2030, reaching 998,000 by 2040. In 2040, the face a supply shortage of 179,000 people by 2030 and
(10K people) (10K people) (10K people) (10K people)
1,000 112.4 120 500 120
shortage will reach 24.2% of the labor demand (4.132M 566,000 by 2040, which translates to a 15.1% shortage
108.9
100
100
people) in 2040, meaning that only three of every four compared to the labor demand (3.748M people) in 2040.
438.8 438.5
900
834.7 845.0
80 positions will be filled. Rural areas especially will suffer The 7. Healthcare & Medical industries, consisting
80
60
398.7 from a pronounced shortage of drivers; some regions of medical professionals such as physicians, nurses, and
800 40 400 60
812.5 732.6 may be unable to receive any deliveries, while extreme pharmacists, will suffer a supply shortage of 186,000
20 40.2
22.1 40
700 0 delays will become the norm in others. people by 2030 and 816,000 by 2040. This equates to a
20
-20
329.7 For the 2. Construction industry, we estimate a 17.5% shortage compared to the labor demand (4.676M
600 -40 300 0
labor supply shortage of 223,000 people by 2030 and people) in 2040. These industries will undeniably
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657,000 by 2040. This constitutes a 22.0% shortage require a larger workforce as Japan’s elderly population
compared to the labor demand (2.989M people) in continues to grow. Chronic labor shortages could have
5. Caregiving Service 6. Customer & Food Service 2040. The resulting lack of proper road maintenance major repercussions for our lives; for instance, if it
(10K people) (10K people) (10K people) (10K people)
250 100 400 100
and disaster recovery efforts will likely result in becomes more difficult to receive medical attention or
229.7 serious accidents and the abandonment of damaged find hospitals that will accept patients from ambulance
230 80 380 374.8 80
365.2 infrastructure. services.
58.0 56.6 60
210
199.0
60 360
347.4 For the 3. Manufacturing industry, we anticipate a The category of 8. Clerical Staff, Technicians, &
190 40 340 40 supply shortage of 221,000 people by 2030 and 1.124M Specialists consists of specialized white-collar workers
178.1
171.7
17.9
318.1 by 2040. With a shortage of 13.3% relative to the labor such as administrators, technicians in various fields,
170 20 320 20
21.0 demand (8.450M people) in 2040, manufacturing will educators, and other certified professionals. In 2030, we
150 0 300 0
have a more robust labor force in 2040 than other will see a surplus of 213,000 workers in this category;
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domestic industries. However, a shortage is still a however, by 2040 there will be a supply shortage of
shortage; the lack of available labor may act as a 1.566M people, representing a 6.8% shortage compared
7. Healthcare & Medical 8. Clerical Staff, Technicians, & Specialists bottleneck, forcing companies to scrap plans to bring to the labor demand (22.902M people) of that same year.
(10K people) (10K people) (10K people) (10K people)
production back from overseas or build new, large-scale As you can see, supply and demand are almost perfectly
500 100 2,500 200
467.6 156.6 factories. This may also affect our day-to-day lives by balanced in this category.
80
150
Regarding Occupation Categories
60 2,290.2
410.0 100 1. Transport, Machine Operation, & Shipping: Automobile drivers, couriers, warehouse personnel, train operators, etc.
2,248.1
400 386.0 40 2. Construction: Construction/civil engineering personnel, electricians, etc.
391.3 2,226.8 2,133.7 50 3. Manufacturing: Product manufacturing/processing personnel, machine assembly personnel, machine maintenance/repair personnel, etc.
20
4. Sales & Merchandising: Retail store owners/managers, sales clerks, door-to-door/travelling sales personnel, etc.
18.6 81.6 0
0 5. Caregiving Service: Caregivers, home healthcare workers, etc.
-21.3 6. Customer & Food Service: Food service personnel, customer service personnel/waitstaff, etc.
300 -20 2,000 -50
7. Healthcare & Medical: Physicians, dentists, nurses, pharmacists, public health nurses, midwives, clinical laboratory technicians, etc.
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8. Clerical Staff, Technicians, & Specialists: Clerical staff, technicians (mechanical, software, etc.), educators, and other specialized professionals

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 06 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 07

 Table 4 Simulation Per Prefecture All Prefectures Except Tokyo Regions Maintaining Moderate 2030
Facing Labor Supply Shortages Shortages Through 2040
(10K people)

Hokkaido Aomori Iwate Miyagi Akita Yamagata Fukushima Ibaraki Tochigi Gunma In 2030, Japan will experience a labor supply shortage In some prefectures, such as Fukushima, Hyogo,
Labor Supply/ of over 3.410M people; by 2040, that number will climb to Nara, and Miyazaki, shortages in 2030 will be around
Demand Gap
2030 over 11M. However, different prefectures naturally have 10%, a higher percentage than other prefectures.
Shortage
different industrial structures. The occupations of their However, they will remain roughly at that level up
Labor Supply/
Demand Gap residents, and of course their demographics, differ as through 2040. These regions will face supply limitations
2040
Shortage
well. We took these particular regional characteristics into in the early 2020s, but their industrial structures and
account when performing simulations for each prefecture. demographics will mitigate the severity of the shortages

Saitama Chiba Tokyo Kanagawa Niigata Toyama Ishikawa Fukui Yamanashi Nagano Based on our results, we estimate that every to occur thereafter.
Labor Supply/ prefecture, aside from Tokyo, will experience labor
Demand Gap
2030 supply shortages by 2040. Now, let us take a look at Regions with Relatively Low Shortages
Shortage
the regions where this overall shortage of workers will From 2030 Through 2040
Labor Supply/
Demand Gap become particularly apparent.
2040
Shortage In prefectures such as Shimane, Kagawa, Toyama,

The Four Regional Patterns and Wakayama, shortages are estimated to be in the low

Gifu Shizuoka Aichi Mie Shiga Kyoto Osaka Hyogo Nara Wakayama of Labor Supply Shortages single digits from 2030 through 2040. Without economic
growth, the scale of production gradually decreases as
Labor Supply/
Demand Gap Our simulations reveal that supply shortages for the population declines. As such, these prefectures are
2030
Shortage
prefectures other than Tokyo will proceed in one of four not likely to face significant supply limitations as long as
Labor Supply/
Demand Gap patterns. their workers are dedicated to maintaining this decreased
2040
Shortage level of production and supporting the daily lives of other
Regions With High Shortages From residents. However, we must bear in mind that they still
2030 Through 2040, Persistent Supply won’t have any workers to spare.
Tottori Shimane Okayama Hiroshima Yamaguchi Tokushima Kagawa Ehime Kochi Fukuoka
Shortages Occurring Early On
Labor Supply/
2030
Demand Gap
Tokyo Spared From
Shortage Several prefectures, including Niigata, Kyoto, Ehime,
Limited Labor Supply
Labor Supply/ and Tokushima, will face shortages of over 10% in 2030
Demand Gap
2040 and over 30% in 2040. In the late 2020s, these regions Tokyo, however, will not fall under any of these four
Shortage
may experience a shortage of lifestyle maintenance patterns. The demand for labor in Tokyo will be met
service workers, which will further worsen and become from 2030 though 2040. In other words, Tokyo will be
Saga Nagasaki Kumamoto Oita Miyazaki Kagoshima Okinawa
chronic during the 2030s. the only prefecture to evade any labor supply limitations.
Labor Supply/
Demand Gap Tokyo has become disconnected from the major issues
2030
Shortage Regions With Relatively Sufficient affecting Japanese society, and white-collar workers in
Labor Supply/ Supplies in 2030, Rapid Shortages particular may have difficulty recognizing them in their
Demand Gap
2040 Between 2030 and 2040 early stages. This is liable to inhibit discussion of labor
Shortage
supply limitations in the political and economic spheres.
The prefectures trending in this direction include
<Per Prefecture> Hokkaido, Miyagi, Saitama, and Okayama. While we
We made this prediction using the same method as our prediction per occupation; we determined the prefectural and occupational composition
believe that these percentages will remain in the single
of each industry using the National Census, then divided the labor supply and demand that we derived proportionally. For demand, we used 2020
compositions across the board. For supply, we followed the same methods to reflect the average rate of change. digits for 2030, curtailing any supply limitations, they will
However, when calculating the average rate of prefectural and occupational composition change, the sample size becomes smaller due to
the more detailed classification, and so we assume that some prefectures and occupations may show extreme average rates of change. These
jump to approximately 20 to 30% by 2040, and supply
values would yield unrealistic future predictions; to avoid this, we decided to cap the rate of change from the previous year at 0.3% for the time shortages will rapidly become apparent in the intervening
being. These values are in the top 25% of overall change from the previous year.
decade.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 08 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 09

 Caregiving staff shortages will
worsen, and nursing facilities will be
unable to fill their vacant positions (a
25.3% shortage of caregiving service
workers is predicted for 2040).
Those who previously received
home healthcare five days a week
will have to deal with caregiving
staff cancelling once or twice every
week on short notice. Elderly people
will be forced to either take care of
Some regions will be unable to
themselves or rely on their family
receive deliveries due to lack of
members, and their lives will fall
drivers (24.2% shortage of drivers
apart.
predicted by 2040). The availability
of delivery services will determine
the regions in which people can live,
effectively rendering a quarter of
Japan uninhabitable.

How Will Our Lives Change

If We Sit Back and Do Nothing? The construction industry will
experience chronic shortages
(Caught in the vicious cycle of struggling to maintain our lifestyles of managers and operators
while the participation and development of human resources stagnate (22.0% shortage of construction
and further accelerate limited labor supply) workers predicted for 2040).
Only 78% of the roads requiring
maintenance will be repaired,
leaving residential roads in rural
Workplaces will be under areas riddled with potholes.
-staffed, leaving current Many accidents, including bridge
workers with no time to train collapses, will occur, and travel
their successors or younger times will lengthen as a result.
employees. Small and medium
-sized companies with strong
technical capabilities will be
forced out of business due Even white-collar workers,
to their lack of successors. such as clerical staff, will face
Veteran and senior employees declining service standards
of larger companies lacking in and service terminations in
young people will need to put their daily lives due to labor
in significant overtime to get shortages. The lifestyles that
Japan will have fewer medical professionals than needed
their work done. they had led without issue will
(17.5% shortage of healthcare professionals predicted for
fall apart, and they will be too
2040). Hospitals will have the requisite equipment but not
distracted by this to focus on
physicians, nurses, or other medical professionals. The
their work.
hospitals that do remain open will have long lines just for
examinations. Ambulances will be left idling as emergency
crews struggle to find medical facilities willing to admit
their patients.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 10 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 11

2040: The Future of Pr ofes s i onal s At Pl ay

Work in Japan At home, in my room

Miyu Miyake 33 Years Old / Born in 2007 Manufacturing Staff
Scenes from the Future of Our Four Solutions

I didn’t take the game too seriously at first. I just wanted the community currency given
as a reward for climbing the ranks. You install the app on your own device, and then you
take photos of traffic lights, power lines, roads, and bridges to turn them into data. I think
C h a n g i ng Workpl ace s
it said something like “we need your help collecting data to inspect our infrastructure”.
They give you a score based on how far you walk, how many photos you take, and how
On the way to a work site on a major road well you’ve taken them. You get more points in areas that have fewer players. The rules are
being restored in the mountains of a certain prefecture simple, but I never get tired of it. Based on the photos you take of your local infrastructure,
Hiroto Masuda 56 Years Old / Born in 1984 Prefectural Government Employee the app reproduces your town in virtual reality. You can see it start to function, and you can
invite other players to visit, too.

“What a mess!”“It doesn’t look like anyone was hurt, but now we can’t use this road...”An off-season typhoon
At first, I was just making slight changes to the route I take to work, but I got so hooked
triggered a landslide, blocking the road from the highway exit. I heard about this right after I changed jobs. I had
on the game that I started making special trips just to play it. Suddenly, one day, I got a DM
officially joined the prefectural office after working there on the side while splitting my time between here and the
on the account I use for gameplay reports. “Please lend us your expertise in infrastructure
city. Many municipalities are making themselves more attractive by assembling diverse teams of employees; this
inspection and repair,” they said. I’m not an expert! This isn’t my job or anything, I’m just
office, brimming with energy, has the most cross-functional staff members by a long shot. I’ve been assigned to the
playing a game. Apparently they also reached out to my friend, who plays the same game
Governor's Office for now. In six months, I’ll be in charge of designing a plan for the organization to best utilize
in a different area,
its diverse members. Right now, I want to visit all the different work sites under the purview of the prefectural
government. I drive carefully in the poor weather, dark clouds still spreading across the sky.
Because we've taken so many photos of traffic lights, utility poles, and road signs.
“ Thank you for helping us investigate how to effectively utilize our inspection data,”
The road restoration team arrived, consisting of several operators and some heavy equipment that the construction
they said. My knowledge helps them train AI models to better identify images. That way,
company had scraped together from nearby branches. They sure didn’t waste any time. Still, wouldn’t they need a
the experts can focus on doing inspections in more dangerous places. Of course, I already
bigger team for this?
knew that was the whole point of the game, but I feel like I’m really making a difference.

The restoration team is apparently divided into two main groups. The first group operates multiple pieces of heavy
We’re all just doing this because we like it. I wasn’t really trying to make any kind of
equipment to accomplish their tasks. The operators control the construction equipment with special tablets; it’s almost
contribution. I’m certainly not a professional, either.
like they’re taming wild animals. They tell me that it’s no big deal, because they have software helping them out.
Watching from the sidelines, though, I can’t believe how many tasks their brains can process at once. The other group
Suddenly, it occurs to me. Perhaps my own job is also being supported by people just
is responsible for restoring the slope of the road and adding the finishing touches. I can tell how experienced they are
doing what they like to do. I guess I’m a professional after all.
just from the looks on their faces. They can even anticipate where the autonomous construction equipment will run into
trouble, and they handle those areas themselves in advance. Meanwhile, there are drones flying back and forth above
both teams. The drones are updating the data that the construction manager, who’s supervising the project remotely
today, will use to verify the work in virtual reality. I happen to glance at a hanging banner that bears the motto “Nip
danger in the bud, on-site and off-site”.

This isn’t “dirty, dangerous, and demanding” like people say. Working on-site was a much bigger deal than I thought.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 12 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 13

 Sol v i ng Pr obl em s on the F r ontl i nes of a D ev el op e d C o u n t ry

At a nursing facility in the suburbs

Ren Takahashi 25 Years Old / Born in 2015 Nursing Facility Employee

L e a r n i ng L e sso n s from Senior Citizens I really like where I work. I took this job after doing internships at a few other
companies. Of course, I’d heard about the tech here before I even started. Thanks to
At the “Sugibaa House” Community Center their collaborations with my university research lab, I learned about how larger nursing

Yuina Aoi 17 Years Old / Born in 2023 High School Student facilities were like trade shows for advanced robotics technologies, which is what got me
interested in joining this company. What surprised me when I officially started, though,
was how many non-specialists also work here. Different people perform the tasks that
He looked just like any regular old man to me. “Sorry, you probably don’t want some
can be carried out by non-specialists, from helping with recreation to talking to residents
geezer bothering you,” he said. That’s okay, I don’t really mind. The community center
and handling information security at the facility, for different reasons. Certified Care
is on the first floor of an old building that’s been renovated. There’s all kinds of people
Workers have clearly become a new kind of specialist.
here right now, from students of all ages studying with their friends to senior citizens
who visit regularly. “I’m free in the evenings, but I’ve got nowhere to go. There’s always
Rather than do physical labor or handle people's emotions, we’re being asked to
people here, though...” Free, huh? That sounds nice. I wonder when I’ll finally have
collaborate. How can we deploy machines to empower people as they do their jobs?
free time, now that everybody works their whole lives away. “I actually do have a job,
How can we facilitate the work of non-specialists? The lines have blurred between those
though,” he says, almost like he read my mind. It’s like listening to a podcast. “I work
providing care and those receiving it. Just by helping out at the facility, residents can stay
at the reception desk in a pharmacy. I deal with the manufacturers when their robots
healthy, work on their physical therapy, and even earn money. Thus, caregiving services
misbehave. Also, sometimes customers come to pick up their prescriptions in person if
are being provided by a large number of non-specialists. Certified Care Workers use their
they’re in a hurry. They’re so upset they go red in the face.” Out of the corner of my eye,
caregiving skills and experience to facilitate various other workers.
I see a little kid toddling by. There are a lot of young children and old people here, so it’s
not a great place to get any studying done. “I used to work in sales, and when I messed up,
Many people have day jobs that finish early, and many others are looking for places
I would panic. Oddly enough, I have no problem dealing with panicked customers now,
where they can forget about the outside world entirely, which is probably why there are
because I remember how that felt.” The old man looks over at the clock, projected on
more and more non-specialists joining this industry. This may indeed be the perfect place
an antique-looking display. It’s five p.m. I haven’t made any progress with my English
for them. This job makes you think about life; something happens to someone every
homework since we’ve started talking.
day. When people realize that the “breaks” they’re taking to forget about their jobs are
making others’ lives easier, they become the new non-specialists. No, not non-specialists.
Thank you for chatting with me. “Young people really have it hard. Well, good luck with
Collaborators. I do understand how those “collaborators” feel. After all, I was one of them
your studies.” I’m glad you’re doing well. “I’m doing just great, even though I’m 80. When
not so long ago.
I was younger, all I did was work. I was so stressed out, always worried about making it
through the next day. A lot of that was a waste of time.” It’s so hard to guess exactly how old
the old people are nowadays. “Now, when I’m done working for the day, I’m done. More
than ever before, though, I feel like I’m really working.”“You know, people are suited for
more than just hard work.”

In English, the word “work” can mean “to function,” “to operate,” and “to do your job.”

Somehow, I feel a little more relaxed now.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 14 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 15

The Four
Solutions 1 Mechanization
Automation
An Extensive Shift to
and
—How can a sustainable society be developed amid the limited labor supply?
While trial-and-error is needed, we propose solutions that especially capture
our attention. The first is an extensive shift to mechanization and automation.

Mechanization and Automation Vast Changes in Workstyles

for our Lifestyles with Advances in Mechanization
and Automation
The limited labor supply caused by a declining users and patients. This would result in better-quality
birthrate and aging population will become increasingly The progress of automation will likely trigger a caregiving and healthcare. Similarly, when those in the List of researched companies
severe. With more women and senior citizens joining paradigm shift in the future economy of Japan. To start, customer service and sales have less object-related Table 5 that have mechanized/automated
the workforce in recent years, initiatives to effectively advanced automation will help to release modern-day tasks, they will gain time for customer communication, the six typical jobs
harness the limited labor available has been gradually people from the burden of long working hours. If which is what their jobs are really about.
Transport
progressing. At the same time, it would be necessary to automation reduces manual tasks, work that normally
consider what type of work can be done only by humans takes ten hours may be shortened to eight hours. People
Envisioning Future Japan Post / NEXT Logistics Japan / Alpen
from here. who were compelled to work long hours will become able
Workstyles for Six Typical Construction
Accordingly, there is active discussion about whether to finish their assignments during work hours. This would
Lifestyle-Maintenance Service
adopting mechanization and automation technologies create an environment that can grant the wish of those
Jobs Construction RX Consortium / Obayashi Corp /
could compensate for the labor shortage. Obviously, who want to work shorter hours without losing income. Nishimatsu Construction / Toda Corp / CLUE /
NIPPO
more than a few people are averse to the idea of having If automation enables us to relegate strenuous work With a focus on typical jobs in Japan, we have brought
AI and robots substitute labor out of fear that jobs will be to robots, there will be less physical burden on workers to light how people’s workstyles will change as digital
Caregiving
taken away. However, Japan will become a limited-labor as well. For example, if automatic forklifts and conveyers technologies become prevalent. Here, we highlight six
supply society; unless we quickly and extensively become prevalent for cargo handling, drivers will be types of jobs that deliver services especially essential aba / Zenkoukai / Future Care Lab in Japan /
Sakura Community Service
automate jobs, we will face a situation where lifestyle freed from the tasks of loading and unloading heavy to lifestyles—transport, construction, caregiving,
maintenance services are not available. cargo. At housing construction sites, if we can mechanize healthcare, sales, and customer service—and present
Healthcare
We need to change our mindset—expanding the material transport and fixture installation so that a variety future workstyles.
conventional concept of “labor” and harnessing the of tasks become more manageable, this may ease the To consider the workstyles of these typical jobs, we Shonan Kamakura General Hospital /
Toyota Memorial Hospital / Omi Medical Center /
labor of AI and robots in the future. The major challenge labor shortage stemming from the ageing of construction researched several companies that have updated their
Medicalyours
of this century for Japan’s labor market is to streamline workers. work practices and are exploring how to adopt new
work that humans had done until now, with the help Shifting manual tasks to mechanization and workstyles (Table 5). How will the initiatives of these Sales
of machinery using AI and robots. This is a challenge automation will enable us to focus on the work that companies change Japanese workstyles? Let us present
Kasumi / Secure / Wacoal
that must be solved, not only for the business aspect fundamentally requires the attention of humans. In a vision of the future.
of improved productivity, but also for the sake of our the caregiving and healthcare fields, workers can be
Customer service
lifestyles. freed from time-consuming tasks such as everyday
record-keeping and other miscellaneous tasks, using Kura Sushi / TechMagic / Kawasaki Heavy Industries
/ JR Tokai Hotels / H.I.S. Hotel Holdings
the time instead for one-on-one communication with

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 16 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 17

 Transport Caregiving
For trunk transport, especially highway round trips, The tasks of facility and home-visit caregivers are
practical application is progressing for convoys and divided into “direct assistance” for meals, excretion, and
automated driving. With hands-off and eyes-off operation, bathing, “indirect assistance” for monitoring and making
drivers are freed to do other work in the cab, such as rounds, and “indirect tasks” such as information-sharing
drafting transport plans. If packaging is further standardized with other staff and writing nursing records.
even partly such as in the food industry, loading efficiency It is anticipated that the burden will be reduced for tasks
would improve and much of loading and unloading at other than direct assistance, which can be considered
bases could be relegated to automated conveyers and what caregivers were originally meant to do. Nursing
forklifts. Workers would be freed from grueling loading and records continue to be handwritten on paper at many
unloading tasks. facilities, and it is said that this task takes up about 10%
In the logistics field, automation is a challenge for branch of the time of caregivers. If a caregiving record app with
delivery that is referred to as the “last mile.” However, it Warehouses and other logistics bases are becoming automatic vital data acquisition quickly becomes standard status, as well as room temperature, humidity, and sound.
would be possible to partly use automatic delivery robots increasingly sophisticated, making it feasible to achieve and caregivers can use voice input with sophisticated The burden of direct assistance will also be reduced with
if interior logistics were upgraded in large condominium manpower reduction at an early stage. By around 2040, language processing abilities, this will enable automatic the aid of robot suits and transfer support robots. What will
complexes, sizable company office buildings, large-scale 60 to 70% of today’s tasks may become automated. recording while caregiving. be left to the end as the true job of caregivers is to engage
commercial facilities, and other. In sparsely-populated Replacement by robots to do simple work such as sorting, Much of monitoring and making rounds will also be done in communication with users. Automating tasks will create
areas facing a shortage of delivery persons and inefficient packing, and transferring is expected to accelerate, and digitally. Tasks for just making rounds will be eliminated time to increase communication with users about their
delivery, range of zones eligible for drone delivery has the work of humans will shift to controlling and maintaining by using sensors that visualize the state inside rooms to everyday lives, resulting in personalized caregiving.
been expanding, and the main work of delivery persons will machinery and planning further automation. comprehensively detect door motion, toilet use, fall alerts,
become to monitor these from a control center. position in bed (lying or getting out of bed), and sleeping

Construction Healthcare
Construction work is generally divided into two Nurses, who are at the frontlines of healthcare. As
types: civil construction and building construction. Of healthcare demands is growing and nurses have been
infrastructure construction such as roads, tunnels, railways, asked to take on the doctor’s tasks, work reform is urgent
bridges, port facilities, water and sewage, automation could for nurses as well.
especially show an impact in civil engineering. It will be In some workplaces, it is said that only 60% of the
seen at a range of sites, including roads, river works, and time of nurses is spent on their true vocation of clinical
dam development, for basic tasks such as soil excavation, work. Substitutes such as robots will gradually take
transport, and piling. Until now, operators had to use a over the non-clinical work that is currently interfering
backhoe to load gravel, go back and forth repeatedly with many nurses’ work. For example, repetitive
with a heavy dump truck, scatter with a bulldozer, and If transport robots become prevalent at large-scale explanations of daily life in the hospital would be done
smooth with a roller. If automated construction technology construction sites, they could partly substitute for labor, by an admission/discharge explanation robot. Robots AI history-taking with patients inputting basic data into a
advances, a single worker will be able to operate multiple such as the multiple workers needed to move fittings at will become able to autonomously go to a patient, play tablet, and having meetings and conferences online.
heavy machinery. night. a video on its monitor to explain, and guide them to the Streamlining tasks enables nurses to minimize the time
On the other hand, full automation will be a challenge Implementing welding and reinforcement binding robots hospital room or examination room. spent away from a patient’s side. The legal definition of
for building construction tasks that require precise work would gradually free people from having to do these tasks Transporting a patient by stretcher is physically taxing, nurse’s roles is basically “to help treatment” and “to assist
in units of millimeters, such as painting, welding, and for long hours in high places with awkward postures. If but with the advent of transport assistance robots, there will medical care.” As the point of contact increases between
exterior work. Development is in progress for robots that simple and distressing tasks are reduced, people will likely be less need for manpower. There are many possibilities healthcare workers and patients, more time will be spent
respectively transport building materials, weld upper and shift gradually to work that cannot be done by machines, in using robots, such as for transporting medicine and on observing and assessing patients’ general state, thus
lower columns, and bind reinforcements, as well as robots such as overall construction administration, machine collecting used medical devices. addressing their small changes and requests in order to
for multifunctional tasks including mounting ceiling boards. management, and fine-tuning to fit the site. Clerical work will also be streamlined, such as adopting deliver better-quality healthcare.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 18 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 19

 Sales The Many Issues for taken for the overall industry to shift to a new workstyle.

Mechanization and Automation The government must also prepare a system to correct
The basic duties of salespersons can be divided into: needless regulations at the same time.
cash register tasks; product display and replenishment Work sites of the future will change greatly with Another point that may have been overlooked is
tasks; and other administrative tasks. progress in mechanization and automation. We can see that consumers must make concessions as well. For
Of these, automation is quite feasible for the a future where employees in various occupations work example, if we were to fully delegate serving and
time-consuming cash register tasks. With the spread more comfortably by skillfully using digital technology and clearing dishes to robots in restaurants, this would
of smart shopping carts and self-checkout, payment
further collaborating with robots, rather than considering require extraordinary technology. However, if consumers
procedures at the cash register will greatly shift to
them a threat to their jobs. cooperate by transferring dishes to the robot server,
automation. Store staff responsibilities will shift as well, to
Further, in our large-scale feedback activity with tasks done by restaurant staff could be mechanized even
providing support when customers conduct payment and
leading companies, we learned that while some manual with current technology levels.
other related customer service. For beverage replenishment at convenience stores
It is difficult to take product display and replenishment and others, robots could be on stand-by in the back to tasks can be automated, there are very formidable There is also need to change our views on safety. No
tasks completely off the hands of humans, but robot-person replenish new product each time a customer picks one up. challenges to fully automate that work. For example, technology is 100% safe from the beginning. There is a
cooperation will gradually progress. For example, it is Administrative tasks will also change. As digital signage among sales duties, automation is relatively simple for need for a system that allows trials and errors to improve
complicated for a completely automated robot to pick becomes prevalent and RFID is adopted to update the cash register duties, but extremely difficult for tasks such safety while pursuing the benefits of adopting technology.
all delivered products to replenish each location that inventory management system, tasks such as sales as stocking shelves. It would also be challenging to fully
has a shortage. However, it is fully possible to divide reporting to the headquarters and handling discounts
tasks by using cameras/sensors to notify employees and returns can be cut down. With the use of digital
automate handling cooked items and postal matter and
The Achievement of
of locations with product shortages, having robots technology, the work of store managers who are currently
all other incidental services to develop unmanned stores
Abundant Economy and
transport product based on that information, and having busy with handling on-site tasks will likely change to focus
in the near future.
Better Workstyles
Even if these technologies become possible, it is
staff take care of picking and front-facing display tasks. on developing store counters.
very likely that penetration will be slow. To start, there With the advance of automation, we will attain an
is the issue of cost. If relying on workers enables better environment where people can focus on tasks with higher
high-quality service at low cost, automated technology value. By mechanizing and automating conventional
will not spread, no matter how superb it is. tasks, worker wages can be raised and lifestyles can
There is also a gap in literacy for digital technologies. become abundant. The challenge of making this the
Customer service For relatively small-scale businesses, there will be “Century of Automation” has just begun.
many cases where they cannot keep up with these
Customer service tasks at dining and lodging
technologies, not to mention the issue of cost. To
facilities include reception, settlement, administration,
promote automation and enrich the workstyles of people,
customer service, table-waiting, guest room service, and
a comprehensive social movement is needed to speed
kitchen-related.
Of tasks such as reservation-taking to handling arrivals, up the penetration of automation technologies.
payment, customer management, and sales promotion,
automation will proceed for lodging/restaurant reservations,
How Can Work Be Automated?
check-in/out, showing to the table, payment, and other.
The implementation of contactless robot servers is Partial automation has proceeded especially at major To advance automation, companies need to change
accelerating at restaurant chains. Robot servers with arms restaurants for reservation-taking, order-taking, payment, their actions. As digital technologies, AI, and robots
are also being tested, with some capable of collecting serving, and kitchen tasks, but human-dependent aspects
become standard, traditional companies that rely on
dishes. However, total automation remains a challenge remain at those that offer high added-value services. At
conventional workstyles are unlikely to survive the
in terms of cost and safety. A system with people and hotels as well, the trend is two extremes: hotels using
competition. Society will demand companies that
robots cooperating to serve and clear dishes will likely be service robots for automated check-in/out, vs. high-end
established first. hotels and traditional inns that emphasize face-to-face actively adopt new ways of work.
Kitchen-related tasks include cooking menu offerings service. It is also more important than ever to create industry
and washing, drying, and storing away dishes. Automation Services that involve many people consequently have standards. Instead of customizing a system to match
is thought to be relatively difficult, but would be possible to high added-value. To boost service standards, the current the various workstyles of a large number of SMEs, the
some extent if the number of menu offerings is limited and environment with few days off and low wage levels is approach of standardizing various specifications handled
tableware shapes are standardized. expected to improve. in services and jointly developing robots or other must be

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 20 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 21

 2 “Workish Acts” The Option of and replacement work, as they should.
Workish acts like these have a loosely common
The Four There are people who help those in need at a characteristic.

Solutions destination while enjoying travel. By linking a traveler An especially significant point is that all participants
who wants to visit an unknown region with someone do not necessarily have lofty social principles or

Workish act: an activity outside of the primary job that may be beneficial to society who wants help, someone’s need becomes someone’s consciousness. Natural triggers such as “I’ll do it
travel activity. As events and experiences during travel because I’ll have fun” or “I’ll do it because I’ll benefit
take higher priority than simple sightseeing, the mindset from it” serve as the first step for people to act. However,
of “I’ll help for my own enjoyment” is starting to create a these resolve someone’s problem or fulfill the need for
new style of travel. assistance as a consequence. Economic compensation
ranges for workish acts; some offer abundant monetary
There are some people who monitor their return, some offer local loyalty points, while some offer
neighborhood in the course of their health maintenance zero return or a combination of the above.
activities or hobbies. Initiatives for neighborhood "Of the activities that had been referred to as “charity
surveillance anti-crime patrols while jogging or walking activities,” “volunteerism,” “community activities,”
are spreading throughout Japan. As it becomes a “secondary jobs,” “hobbies,” or even “recreation” to this
challenge for the police and government to cover this point, the “workish acts” that we advocate are a collection
themselves, participants can pitch in without too much of activities that ultimately help someone in need. In
extra effort, such as incorporating this into their work a limited-labor supply society, would it be accurate to
commute, work breaks, or as a healthy habit. interpret the types of activities above as simply charity or
recreational activities? Shouldn’t their value be viewed in
Of these activities outside of their primary job or a more positive light? An activity that a person is doing
work, we take note of the aspect that it has the quality simply for their own sake will ultimately help someone."
of responding to someone’s need or desire for
assistance (demand for labor). We also note that
25.6% Currently Practice
they are not obligatory like “shadow work” such
as household chores, but have some form of We conducted a survey regarding workish acts. The
compensation (monetary, psychological, social, subjects were respondents who are residents of Japan,
Is the status quo Defining “Workish Act” etc.). age 20 to 69. Of respondents, 25.6% were engaged in
for workstyles acceptable? We named this type of activity outside of the primary a workish act in some form. This would calculate to a
When interviewing and researching about structural job with the quality of shouldering somebody’s something scale of approximately 19.66 million people. Also, 24.2%
We all consume the labor of others. We call this labor shortages, we noticed the presence of a range to gain some form of compensation as a “workish act.” of respondents said that they wanted to engage in a
“coexistence” or “reciprocity,” or sense that “our lives of people who take on tasks, not necessarily as their workish act but are not doing so yet. The sum of those
depend on others.” However, we are quickly arriving at a primary job or work; this was more than initially assumed. Workish act is an expression comprising two who are currently engaging in it and those who wish to
society where we genuinely appreciate the significance Here’s an example. words. do so comes to approximately 38.24 million people.
of this, not just superficially or from principle. To avoid a ● Work-ish: seems to have some function or effect
future where our lifestyles may break down because of There are people who are contributing to local for society
the limited labor supply, the second factor we will verify infrastructure inspection by playing a mobile game. ● act: various activities (outside of the primary job)
is the “workish act.” This is based on the concept that For this game, local manhole covers and utility poles
there is need for a paradigm shift to a society where an are photographed with location access information “Workish” in this case does not mean “kind of like
individual is active in many situations. turned on, thus creating a list of these, their locations, work,” but rather that it has a function or effect. “Act” has
and conditions. This enables government workers the literal meaning of “activity,” but it also means to play
responsible for water and sewage maintenance to a role on stage. We chose this expression to include the
bypass inspection of the 15 million manhole covers said future possibility for society that people may “play a range
to exist throughout Japan, and instead focus on repairs of roles” in addition to work.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 22 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 23

 In this survey about workish acts, we asked if subjects
Table 7 Practice rate of workish acts Why Engage in Workish Acts? Table 8 Reasons for workish acts
were engaged in activities outside of their primary jobs that (percentage among practitioners / multiple answer) (Practitioners / multiple answer)
would presumably fulfill the labor needs of someone else Next, we asked people why they engage in workish
as shown in Table 7, regardless of reason or format. acts. The top reasons are as follows (Table 8):
Because I can connect with a range of
● Work engaged in outside of primary job: “paid Paid secondary/side job ● Because I can connect with a range of people and people and expand my circle of friends

secondary/side job” “unpaid secondary/side job” “pro expand my circle of friends (29.1%)
Community work e.g., neighborhood Because I can have fun
bono activity” association, residents’ association, ● Because I can have fun (25.2%)
condominium owners’ association
● Local community residents’ association and anti-crime ● Because I was asked by family, a friend, or acquaintance Because I was asked by family, a friend, or
Participation in hobby- or acquaintance
activities: “community work (neighborhood association, (22.0%)
recreation-related communities
residents’ association, condominium owners’ These results reveal that people engaged in these Because the experience will lead to my
Helping/planning educational activities for own growth
association, etc.)” “Cleaning activities for public spaces” activities are not particularly socially conscious; rather,
children and their operation (supporting school
etc. operation, PTA, local children’s organizations, etc.) they are motivated by “It will benefit me” or “I was invited Because I want to contribute to society
● Hobby- or recreation-related community activities: Activities such as farming and by someone.”
“Participation in hobby- or recreation-related nature conservation “It will benefit me” or “I was invited by someone” Because I have free time
communities” “Participation in sports- or arts-related Participation in sports- or arts-related important aspects. No matter what the reason, the value
activities such as being a sports coach or Because I can gain new knowledge, skills,
activities” “Activities to teach others about something music ensemble
of their engagement is increasing in the limited-labor
and experience
one is well-versed in” supply society because those activities may be fulfilling
Cleaning activities for public spaces
● Neighbor assistance activities: “Lifestyle assistance such as roadsides or parks someone’s labor need and helping someone in some Because I want to repay for past favors
for neighbors (snow-shoveling, grass-cutting, way.
Lifestyle assistance for neighbors Because I want to secure savings or
transportation assistance)” “Helping to raise children (snow-shoveling, grass-cutting, disposable income beyond the minimum
transportation assistance) costs of living
outside of the family” etc.
What Kind of People Because I want to maintain a livelihood
● Volunteerism and other activities Unpaid secondary/side job Are Engaging in Workish Acts? (to earn living or school expenses)
● Other: “Activities such as farming and nature
Because I want to do what I can since I may
conservation” “urban development or town revitalization Community-safety activities e.g., fire Now, what kind of people are engaging in workish need favors in the future
brigade, anti-crime activities,
activities” etc. traffic safety activities acts? Based on this survey, we divided subjects into three
Because I wanted to test my knowledge
Because we used conventional concepts, some aspects groups: those who have engaged in many acts; those who and capabilities
Urban development or town
may be defined too narrowly compared to the definition of revitalization activities have engaged in acts (albeit not many); and those who Because I can directly sense the outcome
workish act, but we prioritized grasping the overall picture. have not engaged in actsiii. e.g., confirming results immediately or
Lifestyle assistance for an elderly or seeing the response of the other person
someone who needs assistance, outside of To start, many of those who engage in workish acts
the family Because I want to take up that activity
live in regional areas, more than in large citiesiv. In large seriously in the future
Number of those who Pro bono activity (volunteerism harnessing
knowledge/skills retained from one’s occupation) cities, those who “have engaged” came to 19.0% and
Figure 6 have engaged or wish “often engage” were 4.5% , while in regional areas, “have
Other
to engage in workish acts Activities to teach others about something engaged” were 23.8% and “often engage” were 5.5%
one is well-versed in (xx school, xx class, etc.
Population ages 20 to 69 nationwide 76.793 million people No specific reason / just because
Includes online activities) (Figure 9).

Excluded from survey: 1.843 million people(2.4%)

Helping to raise children outside of
the family Figure 9 People engaging in workish acts
Activities to provide advice to those in the
No activity / no intention community e.g., social worker or child
welfare volunteer
36.707 million people
(47.8%) Large cities Have engaged
Supporting rebuilding/restoration
after a disaster Often engage

Assisting nursing and healthcare facility Cities

activities or helping/planning operations

19.659 million people 18.584 million people

Volunteer activities other than the above Regional areas
(25.6%) (24.2%)

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 24 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 25

 A noteworthy point is that we could see a correlation for those who answered “will ease” to have a higher
Creation of New Workstyles where needs to fulfill someone’s labor demand will reach
with company systems (Table 10). For example, there was practice rate (Table 12). unprecedented high levels, there is plenty of possibility
a strong correlation between remote work opportunities The area of human activity referred to as a “workish that people will engage in workish acts with more fun
and workish act engagement. Of those who “have one or
What Are the Effects? act.” We believe that this will be one solution to the limited and diversity, such as by merging it with entertainment.
more remote work opportunities monthly,” 15.7% “have not labor supply. Fulfilling someone’s need does not have to be hard work.
engaged,” while 22.9% “have engaged” and 34.0% “often What kind of effects do workish acts have? (Table 13) This characteristic applies regardless of the reason We believe that a limited-labor supply society will highlight
engage.” Another implication is that it is easier to engage Level of lifestyle satisfaction links to economic status, started, monetary compensation, or even an awareness of the intrinsic sociality of humans, in other words, the nature
in workish acts if the company has systems in place, such thus we separated those who answered “will ease / won’t engagement. What’s important is that ultimately, it fulfills that we live for the sake of others in some way. Perhaps
as: employee volunteer support; employee-to-employee change” and “will tighten” for verification. Workish act a labor need for someone who wants something done. the activities of people have not merged with the needs
exchange support; extended leave regardless of practitioners had a higher level of lifestyle satisfaction For example, if a person who runs on a treadmill a of people yet, only because the necessary systems and
objective; rules permitting secondary/side jobs, and so on. for both (obviously, there is a need first to help them to number of days weekly at the gym wears a slightly brighter platforms are not ready at this point.
Companies can support the activities of individuals like escape economic hardship). It seems that workish acts uniform and runs outside instead, wouldn’t this be helpful What will happen when ready is that “labor” and “work”
these. bring people satisfaction, regardless of their economic to those who require a certain duty of the police or security will greatly transform in image. When "the part that is not
situation. guards? If someone who wants to have conversation goes labor or work” changes, what will people come to seek in
It was thought that workish acts would be a challenge The correlation of workish acts and personal to a nursing facility and converses with users, wouldn’t this labor and work. The needs of a limited-labor supply society
for those with long domestic work hours. However, no connections has also been revealed, such as with “I can cover a certain task of certified care workers? In a society has the potential to newly create workstyles.
simple correlation was seen, as those who “have not ask for help when I don’t know something.” Isolation and . Recruit Works Institute, “Labor Alternative Activity Survey” (2022). Sample size: 5482. Place of residence, gender, age range allotted according to population dynamics.
engaged” spent the least amount of time on housework, loneliness have been major issues for a while now; these .Population ages 20–69 as of October 2021 calculated from “Population Estimates” by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.
.
“Often engage” refers to those who engage 25.0 hours or more monthly; prevalence was about the top 20% of those who engage.
childcare, and caregiving on both "work days" and "days sense of connections may be able to accelerate workish .
Large cities refers to the capital region (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama Prefectures), Aichi Prefecture, and the Hanshin region (Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo Prefectures).
off". For household economy outlook, there is a tendency acts. Cities refers to prefectures with a government-ordinance-designated city. Regional areas are all other.
. Asked if “will ease” “won’t change” or “will tighten”. Percentage of those who responded “will ease” or “will tighten.”

The individual’s time for housework, childcare,

Table 10 Correlation with systems of the company Table 12
(if systems etc. “are available”) or caregiving / economy outlookv
Have not Have Often Have not Have Often
engaged engaged engage engaged engaged engage

Have one or more remote work opportunities monthly Time for housework, childcare, or caregiving / work days hours hours hours

Employee volunteer support system Time for housework, childcare, or caregiving / days off hours hours hours

Employee-to-employee social exchange support system

Household economy outlook in five years / will ease
such as for club activities

Extended leave regardless of objective Household economy outlook in five years / will tighten
( “refresh leave,” sabbaticals, etc.)

Rules permitting secondary/side jobs

Table 13 Workish act and lifestyle satisfaction level / sense of connection etc.
(percentage of “applies”)
Have not Have Often
engaged engaged engage
Table 11 Individual workstyle/perception
(percentage of “applies”) I am satisfied with my lifestyle
Have not Have Often
engaged engaged engage (Household economy outlook in five years: will ease / won’t change)

Even if I am engaged in two things at once, I am satisfied with my lifestyle

I can fully devote my energies to both (Household economy outlook in five years: will tighten)

I want to present myself differently according to situation, I can ask for help when I don’t know something
such as for work, home, or play

I want to work at my current company until retirement I want to be of help to others

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 26 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 27

 3 Small Activities by
COLUMN Supporting the hearing-impaired

Senior Citizens
I started my activities to support the hearing-impaired after I turned 60, and it has been about 15 years now. For example,
The Four when visiting a medical clinic, it is difficult for the hearing-impaired to communicate with doctors. So, I go with them and do
Solutions what is called “note-taking.” I sit next to doctor to write down what he/she is saying and show it to the patient to facilitate
communication.
I started after finding it in a city public relations magazine. It’s not like I had strong
interest in doing charity work such as helping the disabled, but I don’t mind writing
and I had some free time, so I thought I’d try it. I do enjoy communicating with all
kinds of people. I engage in this activity with the hope that I can be of help to others,
A Realistic Future Vision of The State of Work no matter how minor, while enjoying myself as well.
Senior Citizens' Participation for the Elderly, as Revealed
in Society through Feedback Activity
The ratio of the elderly population in Japan will continue In the feedback activity, we asked seniors about the
to rise through 2040. Consequently, it will become crucial specifics of their current various activities, why they took
for more people, regardless of their advanced age, to After-hour childcare / inspection of power-receiving and
them up, what they found fulfilling, and what they found distribution facilities / drugstore shelf-stocking / computer
connect with society to an extent that is feasible and be challenging. class operation / machine part inspection / insurance agent
helpful to someone else in a range of ways. sales / light work in a warehouse / book-lending tasks at a
To start, attention is drawn to small minimal-burden jobs library / aroma service office operation / customer service
That being said, it isn’t realistic for many of the elderly despite their lower pay, rather than high-burden jobs with at a hotel / transportation services at a nursing facility
to work in the same way they did when they were in their / community center management / customer service at
a big salary similar to what was earned during their prime. an izakaya / assistant for special-needs class at public
prime. For those currently in their prime, it is quite difficult Surveying the family budget of the elderly, very few have elementary school / care worker for disabled children
/ cooking assistance at intensive-care nursing home /
to imagine what type of social activity would be viable for
a person of advanced age. For this study, we conducted
dependents, so having about 100K yen monthly in addition
An Era Where Everyone park maintenance (cleaning, trimming, weeding, etc.) /
office janitor / picking at a food warehouse / hospital meal
feedback activity over 40 senior citizens to shed light on
to their pension payments is usually enough for their level
Engages in Work/Activities that server / crossing guards / train watchperson / instructor

the reality of activities that they can balance with a happy

of consumption. An image emerges of them contributing to
Fit Themselves at one-on-one tutoring school / accounting at SME
society without strain, in work such as facility maintenance, public-service corporation / parking attendant / sales rep
for cosmetics, health foods, etc. / citrus grower / teaching
life regardless of their age. light duties, or assisting younger workers. Looking at the lifestyle of seniors, the range of advisor for schoolchildren / parking structure management
their activities is expanding, including outside of paid & operation / children’s center staff / clerical assistant for
event management company / cleaning & disinfection
work. Here, we have compiled the workish acts of the tasks at vaccination centers / translator of materials
elderly who participated in the feedback activities. etc. at a company / home-visit care / elementary school
campus maintenance & management / rental apartment
Activities that multiple people stated in their response yard-cleaning / advisor & social security consultant / deli
include: community activities; agricultural tasks such cook
Teaching children one-on-one as home gardens; cleaning and management of their
COLUMN
at a tutoring school condominiums or public facilities.
I teach mainly elementary and junior high school students at a There were many reasons for starting these Local senior citizen club accountant / elementary
one-on-one tutoring school. I work shifts, usually on Mondays, Tuesdays, school crossing guard / elementary & jr. high school
activities—for example, one person said it was because councilor / town council (anti-disaster activities &
Wednesdays, and Thursdays from 4:20 in the evening to about 9:00 at
he was asked by a predecessor of the condominium river cleaning) / vegetable grower at community
night. I teach elementary school math and Japanese. And also junior high garden / park grass-cutting / bag & backpack maker
owners’ association. Other examples were a desire / home gardening / firewood-collecting in the forest
English, social studies, and Japanese. Once in a while, I also teach high
to go out and be physically active, to forge ties with / pruning growth along sidewalks / neighborhood
school Japanese and Japanese history.
association president / promoting local history on a blog
In my day-to-day work, the energetic elementary school students will others in the community, or even having no real reason / neighborhood shrine management & preservation /
sometimes call me “Grandpa” by accident or bring something they’re not except simply having free time. It is noteworthy that in chairperson of condominium owners’ association at
building of residency / trash-sorting tasks / collection
learning about but ask me to teach them. In that sense, it basically feels the feedback activity, there were very few people who & cleaning of neighborhood cans & plastic bottles etc.
like I’m playing with grandchildren. started their activity with a major goal. / newspaper column contributor / support for visually-
I’m embarrassed to say that I have no hobbies whatsoever. The people or hearing-impaired / miscellaneous local revitalization
Whether it’s work or a workish act, there is need to activities / neighborhood snow-shoveling / elderly
around me often talk about traveling, but I’m not interested in it at all.
develop an environment that expands a range of activities safety-check coordinator / condominium management
Fortunately, I have no problem with speaking in front of others. Or rather, e.g., parking lot snow-shoveling / local pensioners’ union
I’m used to it. I work for household expenses, as well as to keep my own
for people regardless of age amid the limited-labor supply director / hobby-related YouTube vlogger
life interesting. society.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 28 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 29

The Four
Solutions 4 Waste Reform Now-or-Never

Respondents
Table 15 Awareness of needless duties, by respondent

Applicable duty Aware of some

Sense at least
30% waste
Of those on the left who sense
some kind of waste

There is waste
Percentage of
waste that can
kind of waste that can be
Reduce internal company waste at companies,” hereafter referred to as "this Survey"). *Percentage of
all respondents reduced by
be reduced by
oneself
oneself *Avg. percentage of
all duties
It would be hard to find a person who has never thought,
What Feels Business owners
“Does this work have meaning?” or “This is such a waste.”
Like a Needless Matter? and executives Own company duty
The era when we were able to brush it aside or accept it
as a fact of life is coming to an end. If needless duties are For this Survey, we asked about the prevalence BU managers Own BU duty
minimized, redundant labor demand could be reduced. Not of 27 needless duties (Table 14) (business owners,
only that, this could increase people who can engage in executives were asked about their company duties; Employees Own duty
work with better value and in diverse activities. business unit (BU) managers were asked about their BU
We thus conducted quantitative research about duties; employees were asked about their own duties).
needless duties at companies (“Survey of wasteful work The two most common wastes among business average of 21.8% waste. 84.8% of BU managers said
owners and executives were “Duty/task without a there was BU waste they could reduce themselves, and
system or that is old and has to be done on paper” that they could reduce an average of 20.0% waste. 71.9
Table 14
and “Duty/task that is needlessly detailed or requires of employees said there was waste in duties they
Outline of (Reference) 27 duties asked
“Survey of wasteful work in “Survey of wasteful work at companies” excessively good quality.” For BU managers: could reduce themselves, and that they could reduce an
at companies” “Duty/task that is undertaken because a supervisor average of 17.4% waste.
1. Duty/task with excessive frequency or volume per time
Survey date 2. Duty/task with unclear results and objectives or associate insists it is needed although I don’t
3. Duty/task without a system or that is old and has to be done on paper
December 2022
4. Duty/task that is done the hard or time-consuming way despite there being an easier way
agree” and “Duty/task that is done the hard or
Reforming Needless Duties is
Respondents
5.
6.
Duty/task with heavy reworking
Participation and related duty/task for an event just in case despite having very little to do
time-consuming way despite there being an easier
a Company’s Responsibility
Questions for business owners and executives way.” For employees: “Duty/task without a system or
7. Duty/task that is needlessly detailed or requires excessively good quality
Business owners and executives of companies
8. Standby time due to someone’s error or delay that is old and has to be done on paper” and “Duty/task Business owners, BU managers, and employees alike
with 10+ employees (466 valid respondents)
9. Duty/task to accommodate the tastes or preference of a supervisor or associate despite
Questions for BU managers that is done the hard or time-consuming way despite are aware of many wasteful matters; in reality, much of
Managers who are permanent employees and having no impact on quality
head of a section or higher (481 valid respondents) 10. Duty/task that is undertaken because a supervisor or associate insists it is needed there being an easier way.” this waste is just sitting even though they are capable of
*number of respondents allotted by gender although I don’t agree
Questions for employees
reducing it themselves. In this Survey, we asked for their
11. Duty/task for accommodating the opinions and directions that differ between supervisors
In addition to the business owners, executives,
and BU managers above, includes self-employed
12.
and associates
Duty/task undertaken with insufficient support from a supervisor or associate
Over 20% of respondents said thoughts from the consumer perspective about services
persons, permanent employees, contract
employees, dispatched employees, part-time and 13. Duty/task undertaken to compensate for the lack of ability/effort of an associate “there is at least 30% waste in duties” provided by companies and their level of tolerance for

temporary employees (2771 valid respondents) 14. Duty/task to accommodate the random advice or suggestion of an outsider service reductions. While there are hints of a consumer
Questions for consumers 15. The time spent listening to a supervisor or associate who lacks incisiveness, is Next, we asked business owners, executives, BU mind that desires to take advantage of all services
In addition to the “employees” above, includes long-winded, and repetitive
the unemployed, excluding students (3383 valid 16. Work or overtime to keep someone else company managers, and employees about the existence and available, there were also some opinions that services
respondents)
17. Work hours to appeal efforts and long hours of work percentage of waste among duties. Details are shown in provided with good intentions by companies were
*Number of respondents allotted by gender, age
group, residential area, work status 18. Work hours spent to avoid being viewed as “not working” by supervisors or colleagues
19. Duty/task that is believed will one day link to profit or success Table 15, but the astounding result is that more than 20% unneeded. There is still plenty of room to reduce duties
Question structure 20. Duty/task that has been added or done slowly to secure overtime pay responded that 30% or more of all company/BU/own internally at companies.
21. Duty/task incurred by lack of ability
- Existence and prevalence of 27 needless duties
22. Duty/task intentionally taken on for own growth
duties are needless. It is inacceptable to waste labor with the mentality
- Existence of waste that can be cut and percentage
- Existence of waste that can be cut through own 23. Duty/task intentionally taken on to boost own evaluation or reputation Of those who said there was some kind of waste, we of “While something may seem wasteful at first
ability and percentage 24. Duty/task that is not essential but being undertaken for its incidental benefit
- Organization culture of own company and BU 25. Excessive hospitality services for customers
asked, “with all waste being 100%, what percentage glance, it offers learning” or “Other people in the
- Characteristics of own work 26. Duty/task assigned to curry favor outside the company do you think you could reduce on your own?” 84.9% of company tolerate waste.” The time has come to use all
- Consciousness of corporate services 27. Duty/task undertaken without much thought, simply because other companies are doing
- Level of tolerance for corporate service reductions business owners said there was company waste they possible means to reduce waste.
the same
could reduce themselves and that they could reduce an

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 30 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 31

Immediate Would the Immigration Policy options of “can a machine do this?” or even, “can a

Be a Sufficient Solution? person do this with the help of a machine?”

Possible Measures Whenever the labor shortage in Japan is discussed,

three solutions invariably surface: senior citizens, women,
Rather than choosing between two things, such as “a
machine because there is no human” or “either a machine
or an employee,” the vital approach is one of extensibility:
and foreign citizens. For the elderly, we recommend “small “could an employee gain more potential with the
Schemes to Confront concept of “workish act.” The role of seniors as workers is activities.” Regarding women, our simulation model is power of a machine?”
limited labor supply also anticipated, but not in the meaning that they should based on the presumption that labor force participation
work as they did in their prime until they are 100; they
We present four measures to overcome the limited- can provide labor without strain through small activities.
is high regardless of gender. In other words, the major
When Considering
labor supply society. These are: “mechanization and Further, from the perspective of reducing labor demand,
premise is to change Japanese society to an environment
the Meaning of Work
where anyone can flourish at their best.
automation,” “workish acts,” “small jobs by senior citizens,” there is need to fundamentally discuss operational waste Considering this premise, we excluded the element We also indicated the importance of workish acts that
and “waste reform for work.” reduction. of foreign workers and immigrants from our solutions. highlight the fact that people actually are supplying labor
We propose four solutions because in just ten-plus Seeking help from foreign workers if we can’t cover needs outside of work on a regular basis, through a range of
years, we will face a limited-labor supply society of an Once labor demand and supply are adjusted, how do with domestic workers is an understandable approach. Of activities such as recreation, hobbies, and community
unsolvable scale unless we come together to discuss we generate workers? For the sake of convenience, we course, it is desirable for Japan to become a society where participation.
how to reduce labor demand and increase supply. will call this “total supply coordination.” This approach diverse people flourish, and the topic of foreign labor These workish acts have the quality of “ultimately
Increasing labor supply sounds simple, but the issue is will be imperative for government policy and securing should be properly discussed to achieve this. However, fulfilling someone’s labor need,” implicating the potential
how to increase workers. We believe that these workers human resources amid the limited labor supply; a flexible with the current economic and social circumstances, would to become a bearer in the course of self-enjoyment.
will involve not only humans, but machines as well. There mindset is required that doesn’t rely solely on the labor of simply taking in foreigners solve things? Considering the This will likely become a crucial element for future society
is need for machines and humans to organically cooperate humans in their prime. Obviously, there is also a need to globally-rising ageing rate and the relative decline to become richly sustainable. The “workish” means
to spawn new workstyles. We also discovered cases think beyond the four solutions we propose. of Japan’s economic standing, it is problematic to “seeming somewhat helpful.” Workish teams, workish
where people engage in fun and diverse activities that rashly integrate immigrant acceptance as an effective machines, workish play. Japan in 2040 may be a society
“respond to someone’s need or desire for help” under the medium- to long-term policy. Taking in foreigners will brimming with things like these.
never be a solution without first making efforts to develop What will happen after these activities have spread is
a sustainable society where we can live with abundance. that “work” and “labor” will greatly transform in image.
For this reason, the four measures in this report will serve If people can enjoy taking on labor and be helpful to
Figure 16 Concept map of the labor supply-demand gap and solutions as the starting point of discussion at the very least. society in a plentiful way, there is good potential for work
to take on abundant meaning. The solution required by

Labor demand Labor supply The Potential of “Work” and a limited-labor supply society will be to prepare many
Waste reduction
“Labor” Through Mechanization answers to the question of what motivates humans to

and Automation work.

Reduced Of the solutions, mechanization and automation may

Supply-demand

demand
especially convert the potential of “work” and “labor” for
gap

people. The three points below are key.

Increased
supply 1. They will lead to releasing people from long working
hours.
2. They will reduce the physical burden of work/labor.
Mechanization and automation
3. When tasks are shifted to machines, people can focus
Workish acts
Small jobs by senior citizens on the intrinsic duties of their job.

Instead of just “which person will do it?” when

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considering labor supply, we would have the added

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 32 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 33

Hope for Japan Solution-adoption scenario and base scenario
Figure 17

in 2040
(10K people) (10K people)
7,000 0
-28.7
-100

-200

-300

-341.5 -400
6,000

The Impact of The following changes are seen in the solution-adoption

-493.6
-500

Adopting Solutions scenario. -600

-700
Japan will face a limited-labor supply society in 2040. ● As of 2030, the supply shortage would stop at 287K 5,000 -800
We have presented solutions to avert a society where people (3.415M people short in the base scenario).
-900
living standards decline and everyday life is disrupted ● As of 2040, the supply shortage would be 4.936M
-1,000
to the point where working is out of the question. We people (11.004M people short in the base scenario).
-1,100
estimated the impact on labor supply and demand if these ● Even in the solution-adoption scenario, the labor supply -1100.4
4,000 -1,200
measures were implemented. Of the "measures", we shortage will be significant from about 2032.

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workish acts. For the estimate, we positioned mechanized An important point is that in the solution-adoption
Base scenario: labor shortage (right axis) Solution-adoption scenario: labor shortage (right axis)
and automated robots and equipment as new labor scenario, there are very few apparent supply limits as
supply entities that join, coordinate with, and support of 2030. By quickly starting work on the solutions, we Base scenario: labor demand (left axis) Base scenario: labor supply (left axis)

humans, rather than simply reduce work for humans; we can hold off the adverse impact on lifestyles until 2030. Solution-adoption scenario: labor supply (left axis)
also presumed that workish acts would expand the labor Considering that simulations by prefectures indicate
supply through diverse activities by people not limited by that multiple regions will have about 10% labor supply be measures to reduce labor demand in the first place
their primary jobs. This estimate is the “solution-adoption shortages by 2030, there is no time to wait to launch the (which we present as “waste reform”), or perhaps drastic <Solution-adoption scenario: integration logic>
scenario” and shall be compared to the aforementioned solutions. Each day of delayed action brings lifestyle social reform such as developing compact cities with the For this limited labor supply study, the two main solutions of
mechanization/automation and workish acts were envisioned.
“labor supply-and-demand simulation model (hereafter, disruptions one day closer. foremost objective of minimizing labor needs or creating We conducted feedback activity with experts and progressive
“base scenario”).” Meanwhile, the solution-adoption scenario reveals companies regarding each, and a quantitative survey of working
a society that is attractive to foreigners.
people regarding workish acts. We discussed the results at the
that even if we structurally augment the labor supply A limited-labor supply society seems inevitable. institute, estimated the rates of future automation and workish
act participation, integrating them into the model as factors that
Adopting the Solutions Can Solve through mechanization/automation and workish acts, it is However, we can delay it. Developing and executing a
would boost labor supply.

the 2030 labor supply shortage still unlikely that we will avoid a labor shortage from 2032 structural solution during the "grace period of ten years" The automation rate was set based on the average predictive
value of presumed 2040 automation-substitution forecast rates
onward. that materializes by implementing the measures we by experts and progressive companies of various occupational
The solution-adoption scenario and base scenario are suggested would be the sole "narrow path" for Japan to categories (list of interviewees on P.17). For workish acts, we
set a model with a linear change toward 2040 based on the
shown in Figure 17. Regarding mechanization and automation,
A Grace Period of Ten Years become an abundant, sustainable society. It is indeed a quantitative survey, presuming the group with a currently low
we considered the responses from feedback activity with very narrow path, but if we consider that the various buds frequency of engaging in workish acts (less than 25 hours
monthly) would shift to higher frequency (25+ hours monthly),
experts and relevant companies by occupational category Considering this, even if we urgently expedite the described in this report have emerged, our direction has and those who are not engaged would begin with low frequency.
for presumed automation-substitution forecast rate and budding initiatives of mechanization/ automation and Our reasons for integrating automation and workish act rates
already been mapped out. It is our hope that this proposal
into the labor supply side are as following. For automation,
projected the boosting effect for labor supply in 2040. For workish acts, this would likely enable us to delay is used as a springboard to exchange many opinions, robots and technology have been implemented at workplaces,
workish acts, we used quantitative survey results and the limited labor supply for no more than ten years. making it possible to imagine that they will work alongside
resulting in the development of a “large road.”
people. This is why we positioned automation as something
presumed that people living in Japan would gradually Forestalling the social changes triggered by population that will collaborate with people, rather than reduce the labor
demand. Workish acts were positioned as a supply substitute,
increase the frequency of their involvement in workish acts dynamics is just that formidable. And so for Japanese
with the social participation of people in a form that is different
toward 2040; that the group with low frequency would shift society to be sustainable, we must use the “grace from conventional "work".

to higher frequency and those who are not engaged would period of ten years” until 2032 that would be gained by
begin with low frequency. Details of the solution-adoption advancing mechanization/automation and workish acts,
scenario are explained in the box on the page on the right. to devise additional structural measures. These may

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 34 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 35

Points at Issue that Arise What Companies/Employers
The noble principle of wanting to secure the lifestyles
of employees is to be commended of course, but in a

To transform the era of limited labor supply to an era of abundance and the Government Can Do limited-labor supply society, a slightly different philosophy
is needed. If a company is creating unneeded work for
its employees as a tactic to protect employment, this is a
We will list here the points at issue to avoid limited labor supply and develop an abundant society. Preparing an environment to encourage disadvantage to society, as well as to the employee, who
We cannot cover the full extent of the points at issue with limits to our knowledge, prior investment and disclosure for may have otherwise had the opportunity to sustainably do

but hope they will serve as starting points. labor-saving, such as mechanization work that society has more need for.
and automation
Because people will become a scarce resource in Fully eliminating operational waste
terms of management resources as well, investment in As learned from the survey, there is plenty of “waste that
labor-saving mechanization and automation will have can, but hasn’t been eliminated” at companies. Japanese

a scenario or doesn’t. A representative example of huge impact in all directions: hiring, retention, fostering, society cannot afford to spare a single person to engage in
profit rate, stock prices, etc. What’s important is to wasteful duties. Eliminating waste is the greatest and the
What the Government and a field with a scenario is caregiving/healthcare. It is
develop an environment where companies that prepare a very minimum social responsibility of companies.
Rule-Makers Can Do extremely difficult for system reforms to keep pace with
freely-competitive climate can be appraised. How much
rapidly-advancing technology development. Despite
an awareness of inefficiencies on-site, a situation has investment can be made toward labor-saving and to what

Are the current employment-centered, emerged where those who made prior investments lose extent can the working hours of people be reduced?
What Individuals Can Do
Companies are expected to be creative in disclosing
binding-basis labor laws acceptable? money because of the system. There is need to consider
Amid the labor shortage, human labor is the how to systematically appraise investments toward to what extent they have been able to decrease 3D

scarcest resource in society. Current labor laws lean labor-saving and diversification of workers. (dirty, dangerous, and demanding) workplaces, and the Being aware that excessive demands of
toward managing labor by hours and focusing on the On the other hand, the hotel and dining industries government must acknowledge these disclosures and companies may burden ourselves
employment relationship. For a range of people to are examples of fields that the government has no reflect them in systems. Amid the limited labor supply, there will be an increase

gradually become abundant workers through diverse scenario for. An issue of these fields is that even if of situations where consumers are sought to provide

workstyles, can the employment-centered, binding-basis mechanization/automation is adopted in a certain Permitting flexible workstyles supply themselves. For example, with the increase of

labor laws that have been in place since the Factory region, it may not be permitted in another because of an From the survey, we have discerned that many human stores with self-checkout, they are sought to supply labor

Law ensure the safe and secure activities of people? ordinance. A common base should be prepared. resources engaged in workish acts have opportunities in the form of self-service. Under these circumstances,

Also, does the work-hour-based management premise for remote work to a certain extent. The possibility that making excessive demands of companies will ultimately
company HR systems and benefit programs boost burden ourselves. If we demand excessive service of
of “always being at the office” really mean that people Resolving the issue of “who handles,
this was also implicated. These facts substantiate that staff at a self-service store, people will not want to work
are fully concentrating on their work? There is need to as what kind of issue?”
consider a framework to support individuals who are The issues addressed in this report all originate in companies can encourage non-work activities such as at that store, making it difficult to secure alternative labor

active in many ways. the social issue of limited labor supply; the government workish acts. Company systems like this carry social value and possibly compelling the company to close that store.

addresses these with different bureaus (regional amid the limited labor supply. Rather than depending on Consequences in the form of less convenience and higher
the initiative of individual companies, we need systems for prices will become the burden of those who make those
Providing incentives for revitalization, industrial labor, women & elderly
society to appraise and provide incentives to companies. excessive demands. In a limited-labor supply society,
social activities outside of work empowerment, lifelong learning, welfare, etc.). However,
A range of compensation can be planned for workish the actual issue is simple: Who will fulfill someone’s consumers cannot remain simply as consumers.

acts. It is possible for the government to encourage labor demand and how? The only solution is “total At the very least, refraining from
this. For example, Germany has a “mini-job” system supply coordination,” which will harness the abilities of interfering with the non-work activities Enjoying different roles
that millions of people use to work. For mini-jobs done diverse people and of machines to supply the abilities of employees By nature, humans wear many hats. As a worker, as

on the side of another job for a small wage, the system needed by regions. There is need for comprehensive Even if encouraging flexible workstyles is difficult, there a student, a child, parent, citizen, community member....

offers financial incentives by exempting that income policy-making, such as coordinating with local is something that companies can do. That would be to not The limited labor supply will create situations that require

from taxes. Obviously, this must not create unsteady companies to support certain academic subjects so get in the way of the non-work activities of employees. small efforts to engage in activities in different roles. The

employment; the system should be studied to encourage that educational institutions foster the human resources There is no such thing as a duty for an employee to devote keyword for that is “fun.” An abundant life leads to the

outside activity as an extra to the primary job. needed by regions, or matching human resources from themselves fully to the company 24/7. creation of a sustainable society, which leads to a life with

cities for secondary jobs. even more abundance. Generating this virtuous cycle will

Drafting strategies by field characteristic Being aware that surely be our ultimate destination.

For fields that are confronted by llimited-labor supply, “protecting employment is not
there is a mix of those for which the government has the value of a company’s presence”

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 36 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 37

In Conclusion
Future Predictions 2040 in Japan
The Dawn of the Limited-Labor Supply Society

And the reason why this report did not address “Works Future Predictions 20XX” Project
“Shortage of 4,200 caregivers by 2040: governor replies ‘Securing human resources is an urgent falling birthrate countermeasures is clear. That is
Project Leader
issue’—Toyama” because even if ‘unprecedented steps’ are taken
Shoto Furuya (Chief Researcher)
“Shortage of 2,800 teachers as of May this year: issue has intensified with a 36% rise vs. the national to reverse the falling birthrate right this moment
and had astounding success, most of those Project Members
survey last year—NHK survey”
Takashi Sakamoto (Researcher/Analyst)
“Severe construction and transport labor shortage in Kyushu and Okinawa” children won’t start working until 2040 or later.
Kentaro Tsutsui (Researcher)
Children born in 2023 will still be just 17
“Tourism, dining.... vying for workers: 50% of companies have shortage of permanent Seito Nakamura (Researcher/Analyst)
employees—private sector survey” years old in 2040. We who live in the present
Hiromi Murata (Global Research Centre Manager /
are the ones who must address how to secure Senior Chief Researcher)
“Shortage of mechanics: fatigued frontlines / repairs taking one month”
a sustainable and abundant lifestyle for 2040. Naoko Ishihara (Visiting Researcher / ExaWizards
“Shortage of Self-Defense Forces members: declining population amid fundamental boosting of
Obviously, falling birthrate countermeasures “Hataraku AI & DX Laboratory” Director)
defense abilities / chronic personnel shortage”
are an important issue for considering the more Yoshihiro Toyoda (Project Research Fellow / Life Shift
“Severe logistics crisis with shortage of 140K workers”
distant future. However, when considering the Japan Board Director & CRO)
“60% of facilities struggling to hire pharmacists, especially in the countryside and SMEs” Kumiko Buto (Researcher / Recruit Management
future in 2040, the only solutions we can discuss
“Shortage of teachers, missing homeroom teachers; shunning of long working hours? / extended Solutions Executive Consultant)
now must be viable in the foreseeable future.
self-study due to inability to fill seats—Osaka” Aki Mori (Associate)
This is why the solutions in this report are based
“Battered waterworks infrastructure from deterioration and engineer shortage” Chiyoko Yaginuma (Assistant)
on budding initiatives that are happening now. Yasuko Kaichi (Researcher)

Advisor (Simulation Model Construction)

The limited-labor supply society is a society that
Koichi Kume (Professor, Department of Policy Studies,
humankind has never faced. How will the state of
Faculty of Economics, Toyo University)
With just a quick search of the news, we can find reports rate of ageing in 2020 was 9.3%. This is expected to reach people engaging in work and activities change?
about labor shortages in every occupation and in every 17.8% in 2060 (“Annual Report on the Ageing Society How will the relationship between companies and Analysis Support (Simulation Model Construction)
region. There are not enough people, not just in IT and FY2022”); the change in population structure is definitely a people change? And is the work we are doing now Yuya Takada (Representative Director & President,
Re Data Science)
digital technology, but in all jobs responsible for services worldwide trend. Like other issues attributed to an ageing really necessary? The situation is unprecedented,
that tie directly to our lifestyles. This is a structural issue, society, the limited labor supply that Japanese society but if we expand our range of thinking to consider Advisor (Research Producer)
and simulations indicate the risk that we will become faces is nothing but a preview of what other countries will what effect we have on the people around us in Seita Ishihara (Representative Director,
unable to maintain our lifestyles. confront as well in 10 or 20 years. The measures that this world, we believe that creating a sustainable General Incorporated Association UNIVA)
A society with structural and chronic labor shortage. We Japan will implement in various regions will serve as trial and abundant society despite the labor shortage is Cooperation
dubbed this a “limited-labor supply society.” In a society and error for the sake of future human society. not an insolvable challenge. Jun Takayama (Board Director, TRY-X)
where human workers will become the scarcest resource, Now, when we speak of SMEs, governments, and We will continue our research based on this
there are many points that must be discussed by society human resources in suburban cities, the topic of Design: econte
report. If there are regions and companies that
Proofreading: Diction
as a whole. countering falling birthrates inevitably comes up. Without have gained momentum to forestall the labor
Printing: Hokutosha
technical and social paradigm shifts, such as having shortage, we wish to join in that trial and error.
If we look at the world, we see other concerning news. machines fully supplying labor, it is unmistakable that we
The 2022 population in China has declined vs. 2021. In need a certain number of people in their prime so that we
China, where the birthrate is declining and the population can retain social functions over the long term. To address
is ageing, the number of births fell below 10 million for the this, falling birthrate countermeasures and immigrant
first time. Of course, this may recover in the short-term, but acceptance policies are the only answer. As mentioned https://www.works-i.com/project/futureofwork.html
it is possible that China has entered a phase of population earlier, if we consider the globally rising rate of ageing
Issued March 2023
decline. In many European countries as well, the rate of and the relative decline of Japan’s economic position, Reproducing all or any part of this article is prohibited
population aged 65+ (rate of ageing) has exceeded 20%, accepting immigrants might have been a solution ten without the author’s permission.

with further growth expected. For the world overall, the years ago, but definitely not for ten years later. ©Recruit Co.,Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 38 Future Predictions 2040 in Japan | 39